Stable recurring lenses extracted from each daily report.

WTI crude oil price volatility, influenced by Middle East conflict news and negotiation signals; Gold price as a safe-haven asset, demand increases due to uncertainty

Formal US-Iran negotiation statements and agreement details; Subsequent Eurozone economic data releases, such as GDP and employment reports

ECB may adjust monetary policy path due to inflation data, rate hike expectations heating up; US trade policy shifts, establishing refund portal to return Trump tariffs to ease trade tensions

Strait of Hormuz controlled by Iran, threatening global oil transportation security; Israel fighting on seven fronts, military and fiscal pressures may exacerbate conflict spread

Event-driven topics accumulated from daily reports.

Trajectory (Shift): Conflict persists but possibility of diplomatic negotiations increases; historical context shows coexistence of talks and military pressure; today's events include negotiation signals and military actions.; US-Israel joint strikes target Iran's Isfahan, using bunker bombs causing secondary explosions. Key events: US-Israel joint strikes on Iran's Isfahan (Al Jazeera); Iran passes Strait of Hormuz management plan (Xinhua) Watch: Monitor whether Trump reaches an agreement with Iran by April 6, and whether Iran executes its threat to strike US companies.

Trajectory (Turning Point): Conflict shifts from military escalation to opening a window for diplomatic negotiation; US and Israel launch major attack on Iran, using bunker bombs and causing secondary explosions Key events: Al Jazeera reports US-Israel attack on Iran's Isfahan; Yahoo News reports Iranian President's ceasefire signals Watch: Focus on progress of US-Iran agreement negotiations before April 6, and Israel's military response.

Trajectory (Adjustment): US reduces NATO role, Europe resists military actions; historical context shows NATO pressure and diplomatic intervention; today's events include withdrawal plans and European resistance.; Trump states US may withdraw from Iran within 2-3 weeks. Key events: Trump states US will withdraw from Iran (Al Jazeera); Europe resists US military actions (Google News - World) Watch: Observe evolution of US-Europe relations and major powers' diplomatic mediation in the Middle East, such as Putin's call with UAE expressing concern.

Trajectory (Escalation): US weakens traditional NATO structure, increasing transatlantic relationship uncertainty; Trump administration policies undermine NATO command system, European countries begin resisting US military actions Key events: RT News reports NATO structure reconfiguration; Xinhua reports China-Pakistan five-point peace plan proposal Watch: Focus on NATO member meetings and US foreign policy adjustments, as well as further actions by Russia and China.

Trajectory (Escalation): Eurozone inflation accelerates due to energy price increases, exceeding expectations; Eurozone March inflation rate rises to 2.5%, primarily driven by energy price surge Key events: Xinhua reports Eurozone inflation data Watch: Expectation that the ECB may be forced to raise interest rates earlier; monitor future inflation data and central bank statements.

Trajectory (Intensification): Eurozone inflation rises due to energy price increases; historical context not provided; today's events show inflation surging to 2.5%.; Eurozone March inflation rate climbs from 1.9% to 2.5%, mainly driven by energy prices. Key events: Eurozone March inflation rate climbs to 2.5% (Xinhua) Watch: ECB may face rate hike pressure; monitor subsequent inflation data and monetary policy adjustments.

Trajectory (Escalation): Oil prices continue rising since conflict began, breaking key psychological barrier; G7 initiates emergency response.; WTI crude futures closing price breaks above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022, due to Houthi involvement concerns. Key events: WTI crude futures break above $100 per barrel (Yonhap News TV); G7 holds video conference to address energy crisis (France 24) Watch: Monitor oil price trends and G7 policy outcomes; intervention measures may be introduced to stabilize supply.

Trajectory (Intensifying): Middle East tensions and Fed signals exacerbate volatility in precious metals markets.; Gold and silver prices experience corrective volatility due to safe-haven demand and Fed policy signals (Times of India). Key events: Precious metals market volatility, influenced by Middle East tensions and Fed signals (Times of India); Ukraine attacks Russian Baltic Sea port (The Hindu) Watch: Monitor Fed officials' speeches and economic data for impact on rate expectations, as well as ongoing geopolitical events driving safe-haven assets.

Trajectory (Escalating): Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy facilities; Russian forces launch 66 attacks.; Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Ust-Luga port sparks fire (source: Reuters). Key events: Ukrainian drones strike another key Russian oil terminal (source: Google News - World); Russia reports Ukrainian attack on Baltic port sparks fire (source: The Hindu) Watch: Monitor the impact of further Ukrainian strikes on global energy supply and potential Russian retaliation.

Trajectory (Escalation): Russian forces launch 66 attacks, Ukraine intensifies counterattacks.; Ukraine strikes Russian Baltic port, causing fire. Key events: Russia launches 66 attacks (Ukrinform); Ukraine strikes Baltic port (The Hindu) Watch: Conflict likely to continue; monitor Western support levels and impact on energy markets.

Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict continues to escalate, with US troop increases, Iran issuing warnings, and Israel expanding military operations.; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered an expansion of the invasion into southern Lebanon (Al Jazeera). Key events: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered an expansion of the invasion into southern Lebanon (Al Jazeera); Iran warned the US against launching a ground offensive (DW) Watch: Monitor whether the US deploys ground troops and Iran's further responses, as well as the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on oil prices.

Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict enters its 30th day; Israel expands invasion into southern Lebanon; Iran warns of US ground invasion.; Iran threatens to attack the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (source: France 24). Key events: Israeli Defense Forces state they could destroy 90% of Iran's weapons industry within days (source: The Jerusalem Post); Iranian attack on Saudi base injures at least 10 US troops (source: AP) Watch: Monitor whether the US deploys ground troops, whether Iran follows through on its threats, and whether diplomatic talks can ease tensions.

Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict continues to expand; US increases troop presence in the Middle East; Iran issues ground offensive warning.; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders expansion of military incursion into Lebanon (Al Jazeera Middle East). Key events: Israel prepares for multi-front war; US increases troop presence in the Middle East region (CNN); Iran warns US against launching a ground offensive (DW) Watch: Monitor whether the US deploys ground forces and potential Iranian retaliation, while tracking progress in regional diplomatic mediation.

Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, with military operations and diplomatic efforts proceeding in parallel, tensions continue to worsen.; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders expansion of the invasion into southern Lebanon (Al Jazeera Middle East). Key events: Israel prepares for multi-front war, U.S. troops increase in the Middle East (Google News - World); Iran warns the U.S. against launching a ground offensive (DW (Deutsche Welle)) Watch: Monitor whether the U.S. will deploy ground forces and progress in diplomatic mediation by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Pakistan.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu orders an expansion of the military incursion into southern Lebanon (source: Al Jazeera).; Iran launches missile strikes on Israeli industrial zones, raising risks of chemical leaks (source: Yahoo News). Key events: Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN); Iran warns the US against launching a ground offensive (DW) Watch: Next steps require monitoring whether the US deploys ground forces and whether the conflict further spreads to other regions.

Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, Israel prepares for multi-front war, US increases troop presence.; Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise due to supply risks. Key events: Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN); Iran warns US against ground offensive (DW) Watch: Monitor US ground deployment and Iran's response; conflict may escalate further.

Trajectory (Intensifying): Tensions are exacerbating market volatility, impacting precious metals and oil prices.; Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve signals are intensifying volatility in the precious metals market (Times of India). Key events: Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve signals are intensifying volatility in the precious metals market (Times of India) Watch: Observe further movements in oil and gold prices, and the impact of Federal Reserve officials' speeches on market sentiment.

Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to rising oil prices (source: France 24).; The Iran war has lasted 30 days, significantly impacting global businesses and citizens. Key events: Global trade disrupted due to the ongoing Iran war (France 24) Watch: Monitor the timing of the strait's reopening and the restoration of global oil supply.

Trajectory (Escalation): Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping, and energy transport under pressure, global trade and supply chain risks rise.; Iran war persists for 30 days, partial closure of Strait of Hormuz leads to oil price rise, significantly impacting global businesses and citizens. (France 24 #2) Key events: Iran war persists, disrupting global trade (France 24 #2); Houthi missile attack on Israel raises Red Sea shipping strike concerns (Google News - World) Watch: Monitor passage status of Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and key ports, and subsequent transmission to oil prices, supply chains, and safe-haven assets.

Trajectory (Escalating): Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts oil transportation and global trade.; Iran war leads to global trade obstruction; oil prices rise due to strait closure (France 24). Key events: Iran war persists, obstructing global trade (France 24) Watch: Monitor duration of strait closure and further impact on global supply chains and oil prices.

Trajectory (Escalating): Houthis threaten to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz.; Houthi attacks on Israel raise renewed concerns over Red Sea shipping disruptions (source: AP News). Key events: Houthis may blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (source: Al Jazeera); Navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz under close watch (source: Bloomberg via Ukrinform) Watch: Observe whether the Houthis launch further attacks on shipping and the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trajectory (Escalating): Geopolitical tensions drive up demand for safe-haven assets, increasing market volatility.; Gold and oil prices fluctuate due to risk-off sentiment, with Federal Reserve policy signals affecting investor mood. Key events: Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve signals expected to cause volatility in precious metals markets this week (Times of India) Watch: Observe further impacts of Federal Reserve officials' remarks and Middle East developments on market sentiment and asset prices.

Trajectory (Escalating): Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives up oil prices and disrupts global trade; potential Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait adds uncertainty.; Middle East conflict impacts Gulf industrial facilities, such as attacks on aluminum plants, exacerbating supply chain disruption risks. Key events: Continued Iran war leads to partial closure of Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade (France 24); Houthis open new front, may blockade Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Al Jazeera) Watch: Observe conditions at key maritime chokepoints, oil price dynamics, and whether global inflationary pressures intensify due to supply chain disruptions.

Trajectory (Deterioration): Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects global oil trade and supply chains.; Iranian attack on Saudi military base injures at least 10 US troops (Yahoo News). Key events: Closure of Strait of Hormuz pushes oil prices higher, disrupting global trade (France 24); Iranian attack on Saudi base injures US troops and damages aircraft (Yahoo News) Watch: Monitor the status of oil transit routes and changes in global inventories; assess the long-term impact of conflict on energy infrastructure.

Trajectory (Escalating): Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens oil transportation routes.; Strait of Hormuz closure leads to rising oil prices, affecting global businesses and citizens (France 24). Key events: Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices rise (France 24); Iran attacks Saudi base, injuring U.S. troops (Yahoo News) Watch: Monitor the duration of the Strait closure and the impact of further Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure.

Senior diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt meet in Pakistan to discuss ending the conflict (source: Times of India). Key events: Mediators for the Middle East crisis meet in Pakistan (Times of India) Watch: Monitor whether the meeting results in a ceasefire agreement or measures to ease tensions.

Trajectory (Escalating): War enters second month, with conflict scope expanding to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other areas.; US-Israel continue airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and civilian targets; Iran retaliates by attacking US military bases in Saudi Arabia. Key events: Iranian missile attacks on southern and central Israel (The Jerusalem Post); US-Israel strikes on key Iranian infrastructure, war lasts one month (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor whether Iran formally withdraws from the nuclear treaty and next US military moves; war may escalate further.

Trajectory (Escalating): Houthis launch first direct attack on Israel, breaking informal agreements.; Houthis fire missiles from Yemen at Israel; Iran-backed non-state actors join conflict. Key events: Houthis claim first attack on Israel (France 24); Kuwait airport attacked by Iranian drones, fuel depot fire (Times of India) Watch: Observe whether Houthis sustain attacks and regional state responses; shipping disruption risks may intensify.

Trajectory (Rising Risks): BlackRock warns prolonged war will cause recession; conflict has already triggered trade disruptions.; BlackRock Chairman Larry Fink predicts war exceeding one year will trigger global economic recession (EL PAÍS). Key events: Larry Fink warns of risks from prolonged Iran war (EL PAÍS); US-Israel attacks trigger trade disruptions (The New York Times) Watch: Monitor war duration and impact on global growth; high oil prices may weigh on consumer spending.

Trajectory (Stable): Supported by relatively tight Fed policy and global safe-haven demand, USD strength persists and reaches key levels.; USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160, first time since July 2024 (per Kyodo News, Nikkei Asia). Key events: USD/JPY breaks through 160 level (Kyodo News); Yen falls to 20-month low (Nikkei Asia) Watch: Closely monitor verbal warnings and actual action signals from Japan's Ministry of Finance and central bank; any intervention attempt will significantly impact USD liquidity and global risk appetite.

Trajectory (Stabilizing): G7 calls for immediate cessation of attacks on civilians; Europe lowers climate targets to mitigate energy shock.; European Parliament adopts preliminary stance on US-EU trade agreement, reducing trade uncertainty. Key events: G7 issues joint statement calling for ceasefire (Le Monde); Europe lowers climate targets to ease energy shock from Iran war (Google News) Watch: Observe whether international coordination measures can effectively de-escalate the conflict and the long-term impact of policy adjustments on the global economy and market sentiment.

Trajectory (Escalating): Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran, Chinese vessels obstructed.; Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, reducing export capacity (n-tv). Key events: Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of Strait of Hormuz (Ukrinform); Ukraine strikes Russian oil revenues (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor Strait navigation conditions and Russian oil exports; supply disruptions may continue to push oil prices higher.

Trajectory (Escalating): The strait closure event directly transforms geopolitical risk into an actual supply chain crisis, with rapidly expanding impact scope.; Multiple Chinese merchant ships abandon or are forced to halt transit through the Strait of Hormuz (per Nikkei Asia, Anadolu Agency). Key events: China COSCO ships abandon Strait of Hormuz transit (Nikkei Asia); Europe lowers climate targets in response to energy shock (Reuters) Watch: Monitor global oil inventories, effectiveness of alternative transport routes, and emergency energy policy adjustments by major consumers (e.g., Europe, China).

Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict continues to escalate, with Israel warning of expanded attacks and bombing Beirut, and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.; The US launched hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at Iran, with internal Pentagon concerns over rapid weapons depletion. Key events: US launches hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at Iran (Yahoo News); Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz (Ukrinform) Watch: Monitor follow-up actions by the Trump administration's Iran policy and Iran's response. Risk of oil supply disruption is high, potentially pushing up inflation expectations.

Trajectory (Escalating): Military conflict shifts from peripheral strikes to key chokepoint blockade and nuclear facility targets, with tension levels rising significantly.; Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a global oil transport artery (per Ukrinform). Key events: Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz (Ukrinform); U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran's Khondab heavy water facility (Anadolu Agency) Watch: Monitor the duration and actual blockade scope of the Strait of Hormuz closure, and U.S. policy vacillation between attrition warfare and negotiation.

Trajectory (Escalating): US-Israel joint military operations intensify; Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing conflict risk.; G7 calls for ceasefire, but Israel warns of escalating attacks and threatens to assassinate Iranian officials. Key events: US launches hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at Iran (Yahoo News); Iran's Revolutionary Guard announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz (Ukrinform) Watch: Monitor the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks; conflict may further escalate or trigger broader regional instability.

Trajectory (Stable): Diplomatic efforts continue but fail to prevent military escalation, with divergences and contradictions coexisting.; G7 foreign ministers issue joint statement calling for immediate cessation of attacks targeting Iranian civilians and civilian facilities (per Le Monde). Key events: G7 calls for halting attacks on Iranian civilians (Le Monde); U.S. presents ceasefire proposal to Iran (Xinhua) Watch: Monitor whether substantive peace talks begin between U.S. and Iran, and further actions by major powers like G7 and China in mediation or de-escalation.

Trajectory (Escalating): Israel expands military attacks, Iran vows retaliation, conflict continues to escalate.; U.S. uses hundreds of Tomahawk missiles, internal Pentagon concerns (WaPo via Yahoo News). Key events: Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran vows retaliation (The Jerusalem Post); U.S. launches hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at Iran (WaPo via Yahoo News) Watch: Monitor Iran's retaliatory actions and U.S. diplomatic progress; the war may end within weeks, but geopolitical risks remain high.

Trajectory (Stable): The U.S. extends national emergency declarations targeting trade deficits and Russian harmful activities, maintaining a tough sanctions policy.; U.S. extends national emergency declarations targeting trade deficits and Russian harmful activities (Federal Register) Key events: U.S. extends national emergency declaration targeting trade deficits (Federal Register); G7 calls for immediate cessation of attacks in the Iran conflict (Le Monde) Watch: Monitor whether U.S. sanctions expand, G7 coordinated actions, and the impact of trade tensions on global markets.

Trajectory (Stable): European Parliament adopts preliminary stance on US-EU trade agreement, setting a sunset clause.; Boao Forum concludes, emphasizing China as a global stability anchor; Asian economic growth forecast at 4.5%. Key events: European Parliament adopts stance on US-EU trade agreement (European Parliament Think Tank); Boao Forum 2026 Annual Conference concludes (Xinhua Finance) Watch: Trade agreement progress may alleviate tariff uncertainty; enhanced regional cooperation in Asia is expected to support economic growth and risk assets.

Trajectory (Intensifying): USD/JPY breaks through 160 level, hitting a 20-month high as safe-haven funds flow into the US dollar.; Sharp yen depreciation raises market concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market. Key events: USD/JPY breaks through 160 level (Kyodo News); Yen falls below 160 against the US dollar (Nikkei Asia) Watch: Monitor potential foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan and the impact of changes in global risk sentiment on major currency exchange rates.

Trajectory (Escalating): USD/JPY breaks through the 160 level, hitting a new high since July 2024, with the yen depreciating sharply.; The yen against the US dollar falls to a 20-month low, reflecting market adjustments to expectations for Bank of Japan policy. Key events: USD/JPY breaks through the 160 level (Kyodo News); Yen against the US dollar falls to a 20-month low (Nikkei Asia) Watch: Monitor potential FX intervention actions by the Bank of Japan, and the impact of global risk sentiment on USD and JPY exchange rates.

Trajectory (Turning Point): Yen falls against the USD, breaking through the 160 level to a 20-month low, with markets watching for possible Bank of Japan intervention.; USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160, the first time since July 2024 (Nikkei Asia, Kyodo News) Key events: USD/JPY breaks through the 160 level (Kyodo News); Yen hits a 20-month low (Nikkei Asia) Watch: Monitor whether the Bank of Japan intervenes in the currency market, the Federal Reserve's policy response, and changes in global risk sentiment.

Trajectory (Escalating): USD/JPY breaks through 160, hitting a 20-month low.; Yen depreciates significantly, market focuses on Bank of Japan response. Key events: USD/JPY breaks through 160 level (Kyodo News); Yen falls below 160 against USD (Nikkei Asia) Watch: Watch whether the Bank of Japan will intervene in the forex market; USD strength may continue to impact global risk sentiment.

Trajectory (Pivoting): Europe lowers climate targets to mitigate the energy shock from the Iran war, showing policy flexibility.; Middle Eastern countries increase pipeline oil exports to circumvent Strait of Hormuz risks, but supply disruption concerns persist. Key events: Europe lowers climate targets to address energy shock (Google News); Middle East pipeline oil exports increase to circumvent strait risks (Al Jazeera) Watch: Observe details of European energy policy implementation and progress on alternative oil supply solutions. Oil price volatility may impact inflation and central bank policies.

Trajectory (Escalating): Middle East warfare pushes up U.S. oil prices, intensifying Republican concerns about midterm elections; polls show declining approval ratings.; Trump's approval rating drops to 36%, the lowest since returning to the White House, with public lacking confidence in military actions and the economy (Xinhua News). Key events: Prolonged Middle East conflict drives up oil prices, worrying Republican election prospects (Xinhua News); Trump extends suspension of strikes on Iranian energy facilities (China News Service) Watch: Observe the impact of oil prices on inflation and elections, as well as potential policy adjustments by the Trump administration, which may trigger mar

Trajectory (Pivoting): WTO holds emergency meeting to discuss multilateral trade system reforms, as tariff wars have undermined the old system.; Meeting focus is on reaching an agreement for reform; failure could lead to new rule-making (Al Jazeera). Key events: WTO holds emergency meeting, increasing uncertainty in the multilateral system (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor WTO meeting outcomes; if reform fails, risks of global trade fragmentation may rise, affecting supply chains.

Trajectory (Volatile): Negotiation news causes oil prices to fall then rise; supply disruptions intensify price pressures.; Trump's push for Iran negotiations leads to oil price volatility, briefly rebounding above $100 per barrel (BBC News). Key events: Oil price volatility due to US-Iran negotiation news (BBC News); Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions (Bloomberg) Watch: Energy supply risks remain elevated; oil prices vulnerable to geopolitical shocks; monitor Strait of Hormuz conditions and ECB policy response.

Trajectory (Escalating): Russia launches rare daytime drone attacks, marking the start of the spring offensive, with Ukraine facing missile shortages.; Russia launches nearly 400 drones, causing casualties and damage to UNESCO heritage sites. Key events: Russia launches 400-drone attack on Ukraine (BBC News); Signs of Russia's spring offensive emerge (AP News) Watch: Monitor offensive progress, Western aid responses, and impacts on Eastern European geopolitical stability.

Trajectory (Deteriorating): Qatar declares force majeure on supply contracts to multiple countries due to LNG production facility damage from Iranian missile strikes.; Qatar Energy CEO states a 17% loss in export capacity, with repairs expected to take 3-5 years. Key events: Qatar declares force majeure on long-term LNG contract with South Korea (Yonhap News TV); Iranian missile strike damages Qatar production facilities (Yonhap News TV) Watch: Monitor energy price trends, Qatar's repair progress, and global LNG market supply-demand dynamics.

Trajectory (Stable): Chinese government issues special treasury bonds for the second consecutive year to replenish bank capital, continuing policies to support the real economy.; 2026 plan to issue 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds, specifically for capital replenishment of major state-owned banks. Key events: China issues 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish capital of major state-owned banks (Xinhua) Watch: Observe the effects of credit expansion and its support for economic growth; monitor subsequent policy developments.

Trajectory (Escalation): Ukraine attacks Russian oil infrastructure, expanding the scope of the conflict.; Ukraine strikes key Russian oil ports Primorsk and refineries, affecting energy supply. Key events: Ukraine attacks Russian oil ports (Al Jazeera); Zelensky warns of Russian attacks (Ukrinform) Watch: The conflict may further impact global energy supply; monitor Russia's export recovery and Ukraine's counterattack actions.

Trajectory (Volatility): Oil prices plummet sharply; IEA consults on releasing reserves, but supply gap persists.; International oil prices fell over 10% on the 23rd, with New York crude closing at $88.13. Key events: International oil prices fall sharply on the 23rd (Xinhua); IEA consults on releasing strategic petroleum reserves to address supply crisis (Xinhua) Watch: Oil price volatility may persist; monitor IEA's reserve release decision, risks of Middle East supply disruptions, and Russia's export situation.

Trajectory (Stabilization): China launches trillion-yuan fiscal policy, focusing on boosting domestic demand to stabilize the economy.; Central government allocates 100 billion yuan in special funds, introducing six policies to support private investment and household consumption. Key events: Central government allocates 100 billion yuan to boost domestic demand (Xinhua) Watch: Policy implementation is expected to stimulate domestic demand and investment; monitor subsequent economic data, credit flows, and market reactions.

Trajectory (Pivoting): Capital flows back to the US from Europe and Asia for safety; MSCI All Country World Index ex-US falls 10%, while US index declines only 5.4% Key events: WSJ reports capital flowing back to US (Yonhap News TV); Comparison of global stock market decline data (WSJ) Watch: Risk-off sentiment may persist, driving USD strength and demand for US assets; monitor capital flow trends.

Trajectory (Escalating): Brent crude price rises to $110/barrel, a 50% increase in one month; Iranian attacks cause 17% loss in Qatar's LNG capacity, requiring five years for recovery Key events: Report on Brent crude price surge (Yonhap News TV); Qatar LNG capacity damage (Google News) Watch: Oil prices may rise further; a Strait of Hormuz blockade would exacerbate global energy supply shortages.

Trajectory (Stable): 43 clashes erupt on the Russia-Ukraine front line, with intense fighting in the Huliaipole area, but no significant escalation indicated.; Conflict has entered a protracted phase, with both sides locked in a stalemate. Key events: 43 clashes on Russia-Ukraine front line (Ukrinform) Watch: Monitor Ukrainian counteroffensive progress and Russian responses; prolonged conflict may affect Eastern European stability.

Trajectory (Pivoting): European allies such as Germany and France refuse to participate in U.S. actions in Iran; Trump criticizes NATO, weakening alliance cohesion.; RT News analysis suggests U.S.-Iran conflict could internally fracture NATO, exposing strategic divisions. Key events: Europe refuses to support U.S. action (RT News); Trump criticizes NATO allies (AP News) Watch: Observe coordination among NATO member states and U.S. foreign policy; alliance fragmentation may increase global security uncertainty.

Trajectory (Escalating): U.S.-Israel strike on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility triggered retaliatory Iranian missile attacks on Israeli towns, expanding conflict from nuclear sites to civilian targets.; Iranian missile attack on the U.S.-UK base at Diego Garcia demonstrates long-range strike capability, indicating regional spillover of tensions. Key events: U.S.-Israel strike on Natanz nuclear facility (The Times of Israel); Iranian counterattack on Dimona, Israel (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor further Iranian retaliation actions and U.S. policy adjustments; conflict may spread to broader regions.

Trajectory (Escalating): Risks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz rise; G7 announces preparedness to act to protect supplies, but implementation remains unclear.; EU urges member states to activate winter natural gas reserves; war in Iran causes prices to surge with high volatility. Key events: G7 prepares to protect energy supplies (Reuters); EU calls for natural gas reserves (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and global oil price fluctuations; energy prices may remain elevated, increasing inflationary pressures.

Trajectory (Stable): Fed maintains focus on inflation; Powell says data centers are pushing up inflation Key events: Powell's comments heighten inflation concerns (Yahoo News); New York stock markets fall (Xinhua) Watch: Market sentiment may remain risk-off until geopolitical risks ease or inflation data improves.

Trajectory (Escalating): Military operations and blockade measures intensified overnight; G7 jointly condemns Iran's blockade actions Key events: G7 joint statement condemns Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (Canadian Prime Minister's Office); Trump considers ground operations against Iran (Al Jazeera) Watch: Focus on whether Iran further escalates the conflict and whether international coordination can ease tensions.

Trajectory (Escalating): Attacks on energy facilities cause supply disruptions; Qatar LNG facility damaged, natural gas prices surge 30% Key events: Iran attacks Qatar LNG facility (France 24); Iraq declares force majeure on oil fields (Reuters) Watch: Energy prices may remain volatile; monitor facility repair progress and alternative supply sources.

Trajectory (Divergence intensifying): Shift from unified military action to public internal contradictions over war funding and energy policy.; Pentagon formally requested Congress for an additional $200 billion in Iran war funding, but Republican internal divisions emerged (AP News/Al Jazeera). Key events: Pentagon seeks $200 billion additional war budget (AP News); U.S. considers lifting some Iranian oil sanctions (BBC News) Watch: Focus on U.S. Congress's attitude toward this massive war funding request, and the specific plan and timeline for Treasury's exemption of Iranian oil sanctions. The interplay between these two will determine the direction of war costs and energy prices.

Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict rapidly escalated from U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran to mutual attacks by Iran and Israel on energy infrastructure in Gulf states.; Iran launched missile attacks on Israel's Haifa refinery (supplying half of Israel's fuel), Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility (one of the world's largest LNG hubs), and targets in Saudi Arabia and other countries. Key events: Iranian missile attack on Israel's Haifa refinery (Reuters/Al Jazeera); Iranian attack damages Qatar's LNG export capacity, impact may last 3-5 years (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor whether the conflict further spills over into Strait of Hormuz shipping, and whether Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states

Trajectory (Dovish inclination): Amid slowing growth and geopolitical risks, major central banks maintain or shift toward dovish stances.; Fed kept rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but divisions over future path remain significant (JETRO). Key events: Fed kept rates unchanged for two consecutive meetings (JETRO); Philippines central bank cut rates by 25 bps (JETRO) Watch: Against the backdrop of energy price and inflation risks pushed higher by geopolitical conflict, observe how the Fed and ECB balance 'fighting inflation' with 'preventing recession'. The tone of next-stage communication is crucial.

Trajectory (Risk aversion intensifies): Major US stock indices fell significantly, with all S&P 500 sectors declining; demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar rose.; Oil prices surged due to Middle East supply risks, sparking inflation concerns. Key events: Three major New York stock indices fall significantly (Xinhuanet); Oil prices surge due to Israeli attack on Iranian gas field (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor stock and commodity price volatility; geopolitical risks may continue to pressure risk assets, with the safe-haven trend potentially persisting.

Trajectory (Stable): The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75% for the second consecutive time, a decision in line with market expectations, with no change in stance due to the Middle East conflict.; Issued FOMC statement and economic projections, emphasizing high uncertainty in the economic outlook. Key events: Fed announces keeping interest rates unchanged (Xinhua); Fed releases FOMC statement and economic projections (Federal Reserve) Watch: Future interest rate path will focus on inflation data and labor market performance; Middle East conflict may increase economic uncertainty.

Trajectory (Pivoting): Trump rejects NATO assistance for Strait of Hormuz escort operations and threatens that the U.S. should consider withdrawing from NATO, shifting attitude from seeking support to unilateralism.; Multiple European countries explicitly refuse to participate in escort operations, emphasizing the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict 'is not Europe's war,' deepening transatlantic rift. Key events: Trump says U.S. should consider withdrawing from NATO (China News Service); Multiple European countries refuse to participate in Strait of Hormuz escort operations; U.S.-Europe rift deepens (Xinhua World) Watch: Transatlantic relations may further deteriorate, impacting global security archit

Trajectory (Stable): Strait shipping remains obstructed, affecting 20 million barrels of oil products daily; International Energy Agency coordinates release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves.; UK plans to form a multinational task force to reopen the Strait, but multiple European countries refuse to participate in escort operations. Key events: Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz obstructed; global oil supply faces severe disruption risk (Xinhua World); Trump angrily criticizes NATO for refusing to assist in Strait of Hormuz, shifts to unilateral action (Google News) Watch: Strait security situation unlikely to ease in the short term; oil prices face upward pressure; monito

Trajectory (Stable): US-China trade teams hold consultations in Paris, but Trump postpones summit with Xi Jinping by about a month.; China warns Trump's latest tariff measures could harm trade relations, involving US abuse of Section 301. Key events: US and China hold trade consultations in Paris, France (China News Service); Trump postpones meeting with Xi Jinping by about a month due to Iran war (Al Jazeera) Watch: Negotiations continue, but geopolitical factors may impact trade progress; monitor outcomes of subsequent talks.

Trajectory (Risk-On): New York stock markets rally across the board; Dow up 0.83%, S&P up 1.01%, Nasdaq up 1.22%.; China's economic data for first two months strong; production and supply grow rapidly, domestic demand expands steadily. Key events: New York stock markets rally on falling oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions (Yonhap News TV); China's strong economic data for first two months; industrial value-added output up 6.3% year-on-year (Xinhua) Watch: Market sentiment sensitive to geopolitical news and oil price changes; monitor conflict progress and economic data releases.

Trajectory: At a turning point: U.S.-China hold high-level talks to advance a trade truce, but the Trump administration simultaneously pressures China for military cooperation and initiates a Section 301 investigation, complicating relations.; U.S.-China hold over six hours of high-level talks at the OECD headquarters in Paris, discussing tariff adjustments, rare earth export controls, and other issues, preparing for the end-of-month summit in Beijing (Yonhap News TV). Key events: U.S.-China hold high-level talks in Paris for final preparations ahead of the Beijing summit (Yonhap News TV); U.S. initiates Section 301 investigation against China and 59 other economies; China criticizes it for

Trajectory: Escalating: Russian forces continue attacking Ukrainian defensive positions, with fighting intensifying across multiple fronts; Russia is also accused of using the Iran war to divert attention.; Since today, Russian forces have launched 49 attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions, with the most intense fighting reported in the Huliaipole, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk sectors (Ukrinform). Key events: Russian forces launch 49 attacks; fighting escalates in three sectors (Ukrinform); Zelenskyy says Russia is exploiting the Iran war; Ukraine suffers new bombardments (Google News - World) Watch: Monitor whether the frontline situation in Ukraine further deteriorates, military cooperat

Trajectory (Escalating): Military actions have expanded from Israel-Iran confrontation to U.S. strikes on key Iranian oil facilities, broadening the conflict scope.; U.S. military strikes military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports; Iran warns of retaliation against U.S. oil infrastructure (RT News). Key events: U.S. military strikes military facilities on Iran's Kharg Island, threatening global crude supply (RT News); Iranian missile attack on Tel Aviv streets; Israel retaliates with airstrikes on western Iran (Al Jazeera, China News Service) Watch: Monitor whether the U.S. further attacks Iranian oil facilities, the expansion of Iranian retaliatio

Trajectory: Stabilizing: IEA initiates its largest-ever petroleum reserve release, starting immediately in Asia, aimed at stabilizing markets, but geopolitical risks continue to exert pressure.; IEA announces the release of approximately 411.9 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves; Asian and Oceania member states begin releasing immediately, with Americas and Europe starting from late March (Yonhap News TV). Key events: IEA announces immediate release of strategic petroleum reserves in Asia, the largest scale in history (Yonhap News TV); Gulf states invoke force majeure clauses due to shipping disruptions (Al Jazeera) Watch: Observe the impact of the IEA reserve release on oil pric

Trajectory (Escalating): Iran announces the Strait's closure to US vessels; the US seeks multinational naval involvement.; Trump calls on China, the UK, Japan, and others to deploy naval ships to help ensure the Strait remains open. Key events: Trump calls for multinational naval deployment to secure the Strait (China News Service); Iran announces Strait closure to US vessels (Al Jazeera) Watch: High risk to Strait navigation; multinational responses will determine oil transport stability.

Trajectory (Stabilizing): The '15th Five-Year Plan' outline is released, focusing on stable growth and innovation.; Chinese authorities release the 2026-2030 plan, clarifying policy direction. Key events: China releases '15th Five-Year Plan' outline (China News Service) Watch: Policy stability may alleviate some global risks, but details require further observation.

Trajectory: Safe-haven demand surges due to conflict escalation, with gold and oil prices soaring as hedging tools and the dollar strengthening due to its safe-haven attributes.; Geopolitical tensions drive up gold and oil prices as markets shift to safe assets. Key events: U.S.-Iran conflict pushes up gold and oil prices (source: multiple events politics_metadata); Missile attack on Dubai causes stock market decline and expatriate evacuations (source: RT News) Watch: Monitor safe-haven fund flows, such as gold ETF holdings and dollar index changes; if risk sentiment worsens, it may further support safe-haven assets.

Trajectory (Escalation): Oil supply risks shift from potential threats to actual disruptions, with Iranian mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. airstrikes on oil terminals directly impacting global transport.; Iran deploys naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening tanker safety and stranding 28 Indian oil tankers. Key events: Iran deploys mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening oil trade (source: Der Spiegel); 28 Indian oil tankers stranded near the Strait of Hormuz (source: The Hindu BusinessLine) Watch: Focus on navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's retaliatory oil actions; oil prices may continue rising due to supply disruptions.

Trajectory: Policy responses lag behind geopolitical events, with events like the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision having limited impact, as focus remains on Middle East conflict.; Bank of Canada plans to announce interest rate decision on March 18, 2026, potentially influenced by Middle East conflict. Key events: Bank of Canada to announce interest rate decision on March 18 (source: Bank of Canada Press); Trump states U.S. military will escort in the Strait of Hormuz if necessary (source: The Hindu BusinessLine) Watch: Monitor central banks' inflation responses to Middle East conflict, such as potential adjustments in Bank of Canada's decision to address rising oil prices.

Trajectory (Intensification): Overnight markets priced geopolitical risks rapidly and violently, spreading from crude oil to all risk assets.; Major New York stock indices fell significantly, with declines all exceeding 1.5%, led by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors (Xinhua). Key events: Major New York stock indices fell significantly on the 12th - Xinhua; International oil prices rose sharply on the 12th, with New York crude up 9.72% - Xinhua Watch: Market sentiment has entered risk-off mode, with volatility expected to remain elevated. Any news regarding conflict de-escalation or escalation will trigger sharp two-way swings in asset prices.

Trajectory (Development): Geopolitical shocks begin to transmit to real economy expectations, with policy responses from major economies becoming the focus.; China's 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session passes the '15th Five-Year Plan' outline, establishing the development framework for the next five years (China News Service). Key events: National People's Congress passes the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development outline - China News Service; UK OBR releases March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook independent report - HM Treasury Watch: Stagflation risks from geopolitical conflict are rising, testing the policy resolve of major central banks. Details of C

Trajectory (Shifting): The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinates the release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves (Ukrinform). The US Department of Energy announces the release of 172 million barrels of crude oil next week (China News Service) to address rising oil prices.; International oil prices rose significantly on March 11, with New York crude up 4.55% (Xinhua). Fuel prices climbed in multiple European countries (Xinhua). Key events: IEA releases 400 million barrels of emergency petroleum reserves to curb oil prices (Ukrinform); US Department of Energy announces release of 172 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves (China News Service) Watch: Oil pric

Trajectory (Stabilizing): G7 leaders hold a virtual meeting to discuss the Middle East situation (Canadian Prime Minister's press release), reaffirming support for IEA actions and ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz.; China engages in diplomatic mediation, calling for ceasefire and dialogue (Xinhua), adding complexity to geopolitics. Key events: G7 meeting condemns Iranian attacks and focuses on global economic impact (Canadian Prime Minister's press release); China calls for an immediate ceasefire and return to dialogue (Xinhua) Watch: Global policy coordination may strengthen to address the energy crisis, but trade war risks are rising; monitor follow-up G7 actions and progress i

Trajectory (Heating Up): Soaring Canadian food prices are pushing up inflation, with a central bank rate decision imminent, putting pressure on global policymakers.; Canadian inflation has remained above the 2% target since September 2025, primarily driven by food prices. Key events: Canadian inflation pressure increases due to rising food prices (C.D. Howe Institute); Approximately 140 U.S. soldiers injured in Iran conflict (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor global central banks' responses to geopolitical risks and inflation, particularly the Bank of Canada's rate decision on March 18.

Trajectory (Adjustment): International oil prices plummeted over 11%, but the closure of a UAE refinery due to a drone attack indicates ongoing supply risks.; New York and London crude futures prices fell over 11%, reflecting a significant market adjustment. Key events: International oil prices fell sharply on the 10th, dropping over 11% (Xinhua); UAE's ADNOC refinery closed due to drone attack (Reuters) Watch: Monitor OPEC+'s response to the oil price plunge and the actual impact of geopolitical events on oil supply, which may trigger price volatility.

Trajectory (Responsive): G7 finance ministers convene emergency meeting focusing on oil price stability; Trump and Putin discuss ending the Iran and Ukraine wars.; Trump stated he will exempt some oil-related sanctions to increase supply and alleviate shortages. Key events: G7 finance ministers hold emergency meeting to discuss stabilizing international oil prices (China News Service); Trump and Putin discuss ending Iran and Ukraine wars (Axios) Watch: Observe whether the G7 introduces specific oil price intervention measures and if US-Russia cooperation can advance diplomatic conflict resolution.

Trajectory (Intensifying): Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel due to Middle East conflict, marking the largest increase since 2020 and triggering market panic.; Asia-Pacific stock markets plummet, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling over 6% and South Korea's KOSPI triggering circuit breaker mechanisms. Key events: International oil prices surge above $100, causing sharp declines in Japanese and South Korean stock markets at opening (Xinhua); G7 finance ministers hold emergency meeting to discuss stabilizing international oil prices (China News Service) Watch: Monitor outcomes of the G7 meeting and oil price trends; if the conflict de-escalates, oil prices may retreat, otherwise inflationary

Trajectory (Evolving): US February employment data unexpectedly weak, with unemployment rising; markets anticipate rate cuts ahead of the Fed's decision.; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 650 points due to the Iran conflict and rising oil prices, with strong risk-off sentiment in markets. Key events: US February non-farm payrolls decrease by 92,000 (Source: BBC News).; Dow Jones falls, impacted by Iran conflict (Source: ABC News). Watch: The Fed's March meeting will focus on employment and inflation data; rising oil prices may exacerbate policy dilemmas.

Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict expands from airstrikes to maritime strikes and airspace control, tensions continue to intensify.; US Department of Defense announced using submarine torpedoes to sink an Iranian warship, the first such incident since WWII. Key events: US Defense Secretary announces sinking of Iranian warship and plans to control Iranian airspace (New York Times); Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to destroy Middle East infrastructure (Al Jazeera) Watch: Monitor the process of selecting Iran's new leadership and further escalation of US military actions, as well as whether secret contact translates into substantive diplomatic breakthroughs.

Trajectory (Escalation): US plans to raise global import tariffs from the temporary 10% level to 15% this week.; President Trump has signed the relevant executive order, Treasury Secretary Bessant confirms implementation expected this week. Key events: US Treasury Secretary Bessant hints at tariff hike this week (Yonhap News TV); President Trump signs tariff executive order (Times of India) Watch: Tariff hike may intensify global trade tensions; monitor the formal implementation timing and international reactions, as well as potential impacts on China's economic growth.

Trajectory (Escalation): Russia accuses Ukraine of using naval drones to attack an LNG carrier, conflict spills over into the energy sector.; Incident occurred near Libyan waters, increasing instability in the Mediterranean region. Key events: Putin accuses Ukraine of attacking Russian LNG tanker (The Moscow Times); BBC reports Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting energy supply chains (BBC News) Watch: Monitor risks of energy supply chain disruptions and further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially triggering broader geopolitical tensions.

Trajectory (Stable): The Trump administration's hardline stance on Iran continues, but domestic political dynamics are relatively stable, with focus shifting to international actions.; Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain over its refusal to allow base usage, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. Key events: Trump Cuts Off Trade with Spain (The Jerusalem Post); Trump Says US Went to War to Prevent Iranian Attack (The New York Times) Watch: Trump's policies may continue to impact international relations; monitor his subsequent military and trade decisions, as well as domestic political reactions.

Trajectory (Adjusting): OPEC+ decides to increase production to stabilize markets amid conflict, shifting from crisis response to supply adjustment.; Eight OPEC+ countries decide to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April (JETRO Business News). Key events: OPEC+ decides to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day (JETRO Business News); International oil prices rise sharply, natural gas surges (Yonhap News TV) Watch: Oil prices driven higher by conflict in the short term; effectiveness of OPEC+ production increase needs observation based on conflict progress and global demand changes.