Policy Watch · Themes

2026-04-01

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ECB may adjust monetary policy path due to inflation data, rate hike expectations heating up
US trade policy shifts, establishing refund portal to return Trump tariffs to ease trade tensions
US government seeks to reduce military involvement in Iran war, but faces ally pressure and domestic political dynamics
EU calls for reduced air travel and promotion of remote work to address economic challenges from oil crisis

Linkage

Middle East geopolitical events / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy response

NATO alliance dynamics / Geopolitical uncertainty / Safe-haven asset flows

Energy price changes / Consumer confidence and economic activity / Corporate earnings and market sentiment

Sources

Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express

Reference Links

2026-03-31

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G7 is coordinating global policies to address energy crisis; may introduce joint intervention measures to stabilize oil prices.
Trump administration sets April 6 as negotiation deadline; policy direction depends on Iran's response.
France calls on countries not to ban hydrocarbon exports to ease supply tightness.
US may have Arab states share war costs, affecting regional alliance dynamics.
Central banks may face inflationary pressure; policy tightening expectations rise.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation

Risk-off sentiment rises / Stock market decline / Demand for safe assets like gold and US dollar increases

G7 policy coordination / Energy intervention measures / Oil price stabilization expectations / Market sentiment eases

US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk declines / Oil supply recovery / Inflationary pressure eases

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency [en.yna.co.kr] / BBC News (Top)

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2026-03-30

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US enhances military deployment in Middle East, policy direction unclear, may involve ground operations.
Regional diplomatic mediation such as Pakistan meeting aims to ease tensions.
Fed policy signals will influence market sentiment; monitor officials' speeches.
Global trade policies may adjust supply chains due to conflict impacts.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Global inflation pressure

Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen / Equities under pressure

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy supply concerns / Increased safe-haven asset demand

Diplomatic mediation efforts / Tension easing / Risk sentiment improves / Market rebound

Sources

Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / BBC News (Top)

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2026-03-29

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US may continue deploying troops to Middle East, strengthening military presence to counter Iranian threats.
Iran may formally withdraw from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, intensifying international nuclear crisis.
Trump administration pressures Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but NATO allies' responses diverge.
Global central banks may maintain or tighten monetary policy due to inflationary pressures.
Rising anti-war sentiment may affect sustainability of US domestic policy.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening / Market risk-off

Houthi attacks / Red Sea shipping risks / Supply-chain inflation / Safe-haven asset demand / Gold and dollar rally

Iranian nuclear threats / Geopolitical uncertainty / Increased market volatility / Risk asset sell-off

Prolonged war / Economic growth slowdown / Corporate earnings decline / Stock market correction / Rising bond demand

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2

Reference Links

2026-03-28

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G7 calls for halt to attacks on civilians, but military actions may continue, with limited policy coordination.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio predicts war will end within weeks, diplomatic efforts accelerate, but conditions diverge significantly.
Europe lowers climate targets to mitigate energy shock, showing policy flexibility in response to geopolitical crisis.
U.S. extends emergency status related to trade and Russia, protectionist tendencies persist.
Trump announces no strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, leaving time for diplomacy, but risks remain.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Inflation pressure rises

Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global shipping obstructed / Supply chain risks rise / Economic slowdown

USD / JPY breaks through 160 / Foreign exchange market volatility / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Safe-haven asset demand

Ukraine attacks Russian oil facilities / Russian exports decrease / Global oil supply tightens / Energy prices surge

Sources

Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / n-tv Politik / Tagesschau / ORF.at News

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2026-03-27

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The Trump administration may continue using military threats as negotiation leverage, with mixed policy signals.
The Fed may adjust monetary policy due to inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, increasing rate hike expectations.
G7 nations await U.S. clarification on its Iran war stance, potentially affecting international cooperation and diplomatic coordination.
U.S. domestic political pressure may force the government to adjust Middle East policy to alleviate election concerns.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation risk

Geopolitical tension escalation / Rising safe-haven sentiment / Increased gold and dollar demand / Asset price volatility

Rising oil prices / U.S. inflationary pressure / Fed rate hike expectations / Global interest rate volatility

WTO reform failure / Rising trade protectionism / Global economic growth slowdown / Declining market risk appetite

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-26

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ECB will closely monitor inflation risks, potentially delaying rate cuts to address energy supply shocks.
US may tighten sanctions enforcement, deploy additional troops to the Gulf, though diplomatic pressure could prompt negotiation attempts.
NATO needs to respond to territory attacks, likely strengthening eastern flank defenses, raising geopolitical risk premiums.
Iran insists on five conditions, including control over the Strait of Hormuz; negotiation progress depends on US concessions.
Global energy policy may shift towards reserve releases and alternative supplies to alleviate price pressures.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalates / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Oil prices rise / Inflation risks increase

Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies / Russian energy exports受阻 / Global supply tightens / Safe-haven asset demand rises

US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Geopolitical uncertainty persists / Market sentiment risk-off / Gold and USD strengthen

Energy crisis / European inflation pressures / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Interest rates rise / Equities pressured

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform

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2026-03-25

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Updates

U.S. may further deploy military forces in the Middle East, such as reinforcing the 82nd Airborne Division, and update sanctions on Iran.
China supports bank credit expansion through fiscal policy, focusing on technological innovation and infrastructure sectors.
Global central banks may adjust monetary policies due to energy inflation risks; monitor interest rate path changes.
Trump administration's contradictory diplomatic strategies require observation of subsequent military and economic policy coordination.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase

LNG supply disruption / Energy prices rise / Inflationary pressures increase

China special treasury bonds / Bank credit expansion / Real economy support

Geopolitical tensions / Market volatility intensifies / Equities face pressure

Sources

Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News [www.antaranews.com]

Reference Links

2026-03-24

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Updates

International Energy Agency may release strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate supply crisis but warns it cannot fundamentally resolve shortages.
China launches fiscal and financial coordination policies to stimulate domestic demand; central government allocates 100 billion yuan to support investment and consumption.
Trump administration's Iran policy is contradictory; strikes are paused but negotiation signals are unclear, increasing uncertainty.
Bahrain pushes for UN Security Council approval to use force to protect the Strait of Hormuz; monitor international reactions.
Global central banks may adjust policies in response to oil price volatility and changes in inflation expectations.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets

IEA releases reserves / Falling oil prices / Declining inflation expectations / Central bank policy adjustments

China fiscal stimulus / Domestic demand growth / Improved economic expectations / Asian stock markets benefit

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Russian oil supply disruptions / Global energy price volatility / Risk-off sentiment heats up

Sources

Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East

Reference Links

2026-03-23

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Updates

Trump administration initiates preparations for negotiations with Iran, proposing six demands including nuclear program limits
NATO Secretary General calls on member states to assemble to reopen Strait of Hormuz, supports US military action
UK Prime Minister Starmer convenes COBRA meeting to assess economic impact of Iran war
US may adjust military strategy from airstrikes to potential ground operations in response to strait blockade
Iran presents tough negotiation conditions such as ceasefire and compensation, with significant divergence in positions

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation and risk-off sentiment

Strait of Hormuz blockade threat / Oil price surge / Capital flows back to US

Iranian retaliatory attacks / Regional instability / Gold and USD rise

Negotiation progress uncertainty / Increased market volatility, affecting asset prices

Sources

Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-22

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U.S. policy contradictions: Trump hints at scaling back military operations while increasing troops, unclear policy direction adds market uncertainty.
G7 may take joint action to secure energy supplies, but member coordination and specific measures remain to be seen.
EU accelerates natural gas reserves to meet winter demand, making energy security a priority.
Iran maintains confrontational stance, diplomatic dialogue prospects dim, likely to continue military retaliation.
NATO needs to repair internal rifts, otherwise alliance effectiveness will be questioned.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening

Geopolitical tensions intensify / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and U.S. dollar rise / Stock markets face pressure

Energy price surge / Increased corporate costs / Economic growth slows / Risk asset sell-off

NATO internal fragmentation / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Increased market volatility

Sources

Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-21

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US lifts some Iranian oil sanctions, aiming to increase global supply and stabilize oil prices
Fed focuses on data centers pushing up inflation, likely maintaining high interest rate policy
G7 coordinates release of strategic petroleum reserves to address energy market volatility
International community calls for de-escalation, but military operations continue, with insufficient policy coordination

Linkage

Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Inflation rise / Fed policy tightening

Energy facility attacks / Natural gas price surge / Increased industrial costs / Economic growth slowdown / Stock market decline

Geopolitical risk / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and US dollar rally / Global asset allocation adjustment

Sources

Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International

Reference Links

2026-03-20

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Updates

U.S. fiscal and military policy contradictions: Treasury plans to relax Iranian oil sanctions to stabilize oil prices, while Defense seeks massive war funding, potentially offsetting each other's effects and increasing policy uncertainty.
U.S. Congress as key variable: $200 billion war funding request faces Republican internal divisions; passage, scale will affect war sustainability and fiscal outlook.
Europe insists on independent diplomacy and multilateralism: Expected to continue distancing from U.S. radical Middle East policy and seek alternative solutions to stabilize its own energy supply.
Global central banks in dilemma: Rising energy prices push inflation, but geopolitical risks suppress growth; major central banks (Fed, ECB) may extend wait-and-see period, while some emerging market central banks (e.g., Philippines) have begun rate cut cycles.
Energy intervention tools on standby: Possibility of U.S. releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increases, becoming a potential policy tool to curb oil prices.

Linkage

Middle East energy facilities attacked / Physical disruption of oil and gas supply / Energy prices surge / Global inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy becomes more cautious / Growth expectations downgraded

U.S. policy divergence (troop increase vs. sanction relief) / Energy supply outlook uncertainty increases / Oil price volatility rises / Inflation and growth expectations become ambiguous / Asset pricing confusion

U.S. Dollar Index sharply weakens / Capital flows to non-U.S. assets / EUR, GBP, and other currencies appreciate, emerging market capital inflow pressure eases / Global risk sentiment partially warms

Geopolitical conflict escalation / Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. dollar) and war-related assets (energy, defense stocks) attract capital / Market internal rotation accelerates

Sources

Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia

Reference Links

2026-03-19

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The Fed kept interest rates unchanged; future decisions will depend on inflation and employment data, with the Middle East situation adding uncertainty.
The US eased sanctions on Venezuelan oil to increase global supply, countering oil price pressures from the Middle East conflict.
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, maintaining regional monetary policy stability.
The Middle East conflict may force countries to adjust foreign and energy policies, including international coordination and sanctions measures.
The Fed mentioned uncertainty regarding the economic impact of the Middle East situation, which could affect future policy communication.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressure

Fed rates unchanged / Market expectations met / Stable US dollar and global asset repricing

Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Increased demand for gold and US dollar / Stock markets and risk assets under pressure

Geopolitical risks / Regional security concerns / Safe-haven capital flows impact emerging markets

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News

Reference Links

2026-03-18

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U.S. may take unilateral military action to secure the Strait of Hormuz but faces strategic risks and ally opposition.
Europe promotes diplomatic solutions, avoiding direct military intervention, focusing on negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait.
International Energy Agency continues releasing strategic petroleum reserves, but only 1-2 million barrels daily, insufficient to offset structural supply reduction.
South Korea considers rapid supplementary budget compilation and constitutional revision to address energy shocks and economic uncertainty.
Fed hawkish expectations persist due to inflationary pressures; U.S. personal consumption expenditure data shows defensive consumer attitudes.
Global central banks may tighten monetary policy due to rising oil prices, exacerbating economic slowdown risks.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation surge

U.S.-Europe alliance tensions / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold and U.S. dollar strengthen

Oil price rise / Consumer country economic slowdown / Monetary policy tightening / Stock markets under pressure

Geopolitical risk escalation / Market volatility intensifies / Capital flow changes / Emerging market currency depreciation

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-17

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US may continue pressuring allies to participate in Strait of Hormuz escort missions, but many countries refuse, shifting to diplomatic pressure.
China maintains stable economic policies, supporting growth and global supply chain stability.
Europe seeks diplomatic resolution to Hormuz issue, ruling out military action, focusing on energy security.
Iran may seek negotiations or retaliatory actions; leadership crisis heightens uncertainty.

Linkage

Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation rise

Falling oil prices / Easing inflation expectations / Risk asset rally

US-China trade consultations / Global supply chain stability / Risk sentiment improvement

China's strong economy / Global demand support / Commodities and stock markets benefit

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV

Reference Links

2026-03-16

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Updates

Implementation of the IEA petroleum reserve release will critically impact short-term oil prices; immediate release in Asia may alleviate supply pressure.
The U.S. may further evaluate options for attacking Iranian oil facilities, depending on Iran's behavior in the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus of U.S.-China trade negotiations is on the end-of-month summit; monitor substantive progress on tariff adjustments and rare earth export controls.
Gulf states may enhance air defense and shipping protection measures in response to continued Iranian attacks.
Global central banks may maintain a hawkish stance due to rising inflation risks, but Middle East conflict adds economic uncertainty.
Progress of the U.S. Section 301 investigation may trigger trade retaliation, affecting global supply chains and tariff expectations.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping risks / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflationary pressure / Central bank policy adjustments

U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical pressure / Tariff and export control uncertainty / Global supply chain disruptions / Risk asset volatility and safe-haven demand

IEA petroleum reserve release / Increased market supply / Alleviates short-term oil price pressure / Lowers inflation expectations and risk premium

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Increased regional security risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar / Stock market pressure

Sources

China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-15

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Updates

The US may push for a multinational naval coalition to counter Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
China's '15th Five-Year Plan' emphasizes stable growth and innovation, supporting economic expectations.
Iran insists on closing the Strait, with dim prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
Europe may protest Black Sea attacks but has limited capacity for action.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressures

Strait of Hormuz closure / Transport disruptions / Increased demand for safe-haven assets

Geopolitical tensions / Deteriorating risk sentiment / Stock market declines and bond yield volatility

China policy stability / Regional growth expectations / Relative resilience of Asian assets

Sources

China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-14

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Updates

The U.S. may further escalate military actions, including strikes on more Iranian oil infrastructure.
Central banks may adjust monetary policy to address inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, such as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.
U.S. easing of sanctions on Russian oil may continue to balance global supply, but Middle East risks dominate the market.
Diplomatic mediation channels are blocked, with the Trump administration favoring military solutions, increasing policy uncertainty.
Regional countries like the UAE may strengthen defensive measures, affecting business and investment environments.
Global energy policy may shift toward supply diversification to reduce dependence on Middle East oil.

Linkage

U.S.-Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz risk / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and inflationary pressure

Middle East geopolitical tension / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the dollar / Asset price volatility

U.S. troop deployment and military action / Expanded regional instability / Global risk aversion / Stock market declines and bond market gains

Oil supply shock / Central bank policy adjustments / Interest rate and exchange rate volatility / Global market spillover effects

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News

Reference Links

2026-03-13

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Updates

Major central banks like the Fed will find it harder to pivot to rate cuts, with secondary inflation risks from high oil prices becoming a core policy consideration.
The US may consider and formally announce the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to curb oil prices.
China's '15th Five-Year Plan' will focus on technological self-reliance, industrial chain security, and boosting domestic demand, with related industrial policies to follow.
Under energy security pressure, Europe may accelerate alternative supply sources and green energy deployment.
Fiscal policies in various countries may shift more towards addressing the impact of rising energy prices on low-income groups.

Linkage

Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz / Sharp drop in global oil trade flow / Oil price surge / Rising global inflation expectations / Strengthened expectations of central bank policy tightening / Pressure on risk asset valuations

Escalation of US-Iran military confrontation / Rising regional full-scale war risk premium / Capital flight from risk assets like stocks / Rush into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / US dollar strengthens, gold price rises

Oil price surge / Rising corporate costs (especially transport, manufacturing) & declining consumer purchasing power / Downgraded corporate profit expectations & slowed growth expectations / Double hit to stock earnings and valuations

Persistent geopolitical uncertainty / Global capital expenditure and trade activity turn cautious / Global growth prospects dim / Cyclical assets underperform

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East

Reference Links

2026-03-12

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Updates

US and IEA petroleum reserve releases will continue, but if the conflict escalates, more intervention measures may be needed.
G7 countries may strengthen coordination to promote diplomatic solutions, but military operations are unlikely to de-escalate in the short term.
The mediating role of emerging powers like China may increase, potentially affecting the geopolitical balance.
European countries face energy price pressures and may introduce subsidies or reserve release policies.
Trade policy shifts toward protectionism; new investigations may trigger retaliatory tariffs, impacting global trade.
Middle Eastern countries may accelerate efforts to reduce security dependence on the US and seek diversified partnerships.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption / Reduced global oil supply / Oil price surge / Rising inflationary pressure / Central bank policy tightening / Decline in risk assets

Iranian threats and attacks / Oil supply risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Intensified stock market volatility

Global petroleum reserve releases / Increased supply / Downward pressure on oil prices / Easing of inflation expectations / Partial recovery in risk sentiment / Potential equities rebound

Escalation of trade investigations / Rising tariff risks / Slowing global trade / Growth concerns / Demand for safe-haven assets / FX market volatility

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-11

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The Fed may adjust its rate path due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks, leaning hawkish.
Bank of Canada's March 18 rate decision focuses on food inflation, with rate hike expectations rising.
EU diplomatic policy coordination faces difficulties, struggling to form a unified stance on the Iran conflict.
U.S. military strategy lacks a clear exit plan, with prolonged conflict potentially increasing fiscal pressure.
Global central banks need to balance inflation control with economic growth, with policy responses potentially lagging market changes.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold / U.S. dollar appreciation

Oil supply risks / Oil price volatility / Inflationary pressures

Geopolitical uncertainty / Growth concerns / Stock market declines

Rising inflation / Central bank rate hikes / Currency strengthening

Sources

Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News

Reference Links

2026-03-10

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Updates

G7 finance ministers' meeting may introduce joint strategic petroleum reserve releases or coordinated production increases to stabilize oil prices.
The Trump administration may further exempt oil sanctions, increasing imports from countries like Russia to ease supply.
Central banks like the Fed may accelerate interest rate hikes due to surging inflation, but Middle East risks could temporarily slow tightening pace.
The US Department of Energy pledges to lower gasoline prices; specific measures such as subsidies or regulatory interventions remain to be seen.
The international community may push for diplomatic mediation to end the Iran war, but progress is likely to be slow.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Worsening global inflation

Oil price surge / Asia-Pacific stock market plunge / Spread of risk-off sentiment / Rise in gold and USD

Trump's conciliatory remarks / Expectations for conflict end / Oil price decline / Risk asset rebound

G7 policy coordination / Increased oil supply / Oil price stabilization / Improved market sentiment

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service

Reference Links

2026-03-07

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Updates

The Fed may lean dovish due to weak employment, but rising oil prices intensify inflation concerns, creating policy path uncertainty.
US policy shift allows India to purchase Russian oil in an attempt to alleviate energy pressure, but geopolitical risks remain.
International criticism of US-Israel actions increases, squeezing diplomatic negotiation space and hindering multilateral consultations.
Internal divisions within the Trump team expose policy contradictions, potentially affecting the coherence of US foreign policy.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank tightening expectations

Weak employment data / Rate cut expectations rise / USD weakens / equity volatility

Geopolitical tensions intensify / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Gold and oil prices increase

Gulf production disruption / Oil price surge / Growth concerns / Market risk sentiment deteriorates

Sources

Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance

Reference Links

2026-03-05

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Updates

US likely to continue military pressure on Iran, aiming to prevent nuclear proliferation and weaken Iranian leadership
Tariff hike plan to be implemented this week; Trump administration emphasizes protecting US interests but may face domestic criticism
Potential diplomatic contacts to ease Middle East tensions, but both sides maintain tough public stances
Countries may introduce measures to address oil supply risks, such as releasing strategic reserves
Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to geopolitical risks and inflation

Linkage

US-Iran conflict escalation / Middle East oil supply risk / Oil price rise and safe-haven asset (gold, dollar) demand

Tariff hike to 15% / Increased global trade costs / Economic growth slowdown and stock market volatility

Geopolitical risk easing rumors (US-Iran contact) / Improved market sentiment / Stock market rebound and oil price adjustment

Positive economic data (US employment) / Supporting risk assets / Partially offsetting geopolitical negative impacts

Sources

The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)

Reference Links

2026-03-04

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Updates

The US may continue military strikes against Iran but faces international pressure and domestic opposition.
European countries like France call for adherence to international law and may deploy military forces to maintain regional stability.
Middle Eastern countries need to adjust energy policies to cope with supply disruptions, potentially seeking alternative sources.
Global central banks may face inflationary pressure and need to weigh monetary policy responses to rising energy prices.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Global inflationary pressure and stock market decline

Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Sell-off in risk assets

Trump's trade threats / Global trade uncertainty / Market volatility and inflows into safe-haven assets

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-03

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Updates

US may further escalate military actions, including ground troop deployment, to destroy Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program
OPEC+ may adjust production policies in response to market volatility; production increase decision aims to stabilize oil prices but effectiveness is uncertain
Governments may release strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate oil price shock, such as South Korea announcing 208 days of reserves
Fed and other central banks' interest rate hike paths may be influenced by inflation pressure driven by rising oil prices, potentially adopting a more hawkish policy stance
US urges citizens to evacuate multiple Middle Eastern countries, reflecting deteriorating regional security situation, potentially impacting diplomatic and economic activities

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge / Increased inflation pressure and safe-haven sentiment rise

Iranian retaliation and US attacks / Expansion of military uncertainty / Increased safe-haven asset demand / Gold and US dollar rise

OPEC+ production increase / Increased oil supply / Potential downward pressure on oil prices / Inflation expectation moderation and market stabilization

Rising oil prices / Increased global energy costs / Impact on economic growth and corporate profits / Intensified stock market volatility

Sources

Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News

Reference Links

2026-03-02

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Updates

U.S. may strengthen military deployment, President Trump vows to continue attacks.
Iran's interim leadership committee may seek diplomatic channels or escalate conflict.
UN Security Council has convened emergency meeting, urging restraint.
Global nations may impose sanctions or support diplomatic resolution.
China and Russia call for ceasefire, promote multilateral dialogue.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Oil price increase / Inflation expectations rise

Geopolitical uncertainty / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and U.S. dollar increase

Conflict spillover to other regions / Global supply chain disruption / Stock market decline

Continued U.S. military action / Increased fiscal spending / U.S. dollar strengthens

Sources

Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com]

Reference Links

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