The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-05-17 13:36 (CN)
WATCH TRACK
Policy Watch
US sanctions on Russian oil fully reinstated; enforcement may intensify.; US-China tariff negotiations remain unclear, with conflicting statements; follow-up communiques needed.
SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-05-17
Sources
80
Mainland
3
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
77
Official
6
Non-official
74
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
78
Chinese
3
English
37
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Australia / Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 77, mainland sources = 3.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 37, Chinese-language sources = 3.
RESEARCH PROJECTION

Research Projection

Linked products: SC Crude Oil / AU Gold / FU Fuel Oil / AG Silver
Tracking status: active 24 / review due 24
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest checkpoints
2026-05-17
Open report
Updates
  • US sanctions on Russian oil fully reinstated; enforcement may intensify.
  • US-China tariff negotiations remain unclear, with conflicting statements; follow-up communiques needed.
  • Iran to soon announce Strait of Hormuz mechanism, possibly including fees and targeted transit restrictions.
  • US arms sales to Taiwan may become bargaining chip in US-China talks; deliveries uncertain.
Linkage
Iran Strait fees / oil supply disruption risk / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise
Taiwan independence remarks / US-China confrontation escalates / geopolitical risk premium / EM capital outflows
Russian oil sanctions reinstated / supply tightens / energy prices up / European economic pressure
Multiple conflicts / risk aversion / capital flows into gold and USD / equity and bond volatility
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
Reference Links
2026-05-16
Open report
Updates
  • US Taiwan policy may shift to strategic ambiguity; specific adjustments need to be observed in subsequent statements.
  • Trump will decide whether to resume military strikes on Iran upon return; ceasefire prospects dim.
  • US may lift or maintain sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil, affecting global oil market.
  • European economy hit by Iran war; German Q2 growth expectations halved.
Linkage
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-15
Open report
Updates
  • After Fed chair transition, focus on Warsh's trade-off between inflation and employment, and whether he faces pressure from Trump to cut rates.
  • US-China trade talks stalled; tariff policy likely unchanged in near term, but both sides may shift to technology restrictions.
  • Multinational military mission in Strait of Hormuz may become protracted, increasing regional standoff risk.
  • US policy toward Iran: China's pledge has limited binding power; military options remain.
Linkage
Iran Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / oil price spike / global inflation expectations / central bank policy dilemma / risk-off
Trump-Xi summit no trade deal / risk sentiment down / dollar strengthens / emerging markets under pressure
Taiwan conflict warning / geopolitical premium / semiconductor supply chain disruption risk / tech stock sell-off
Fed leadership change / monetary policy path uncertainty / rate volatility / carry trade unwinding
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-05-14
Open report
Updates
  • Uncertainty over Fed Chair Warsh's term; market focuses on his first policy statement and rate path signals.
  • Rising US inflation may force Fed to maintain hawkish stance, increasing rate hike expectations.
  • If US-China summit yields trade deal, some tariff cuts possible, but full reconciliation remains difficult.
  • India's precious metal import tariff hike aims to reduce trade deficit and curb import demand.
Linkage
Fed chair change / policy uncertainty / USD / Treasury volatility / global asset repricing
US-China summit outcome / trade outlook / risk appetite / equities / commodities
Middle East conflict escalation / oil supply risk / inflation expectations / central bank policy constraints
India gold tariff hike / global physical gold demand decline / gold price pressure
Sources
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-13
Open report
Updates
  • Federal Reserve: Warsh set to become chair; market expects hawkish stance, raising probability of rate hike at June FOMC meeting
  • Trade policy: 10% global tariff temporarily upheld, but legal challenges remain; Trump may seek trade concessions during China visit
  • Fiscal policy: Iran war costs continue to accumulate; Congress faces pressure for additional appropriations, potentially increasing Treasury supply
  • Sanctions policy: Russian nuclear reactor incident may prompt U.S. to tighten enforcement of sanctions on Russia and North Korea
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil supply shock / inflation rise / central bank tightening expectations / risk asset decline
U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapse / military escalation / oil price surge / global recession fears / safe-haven inflows
U.S.-China summit outcome / trade policy expectations / risk sentiment volatility / USD / EM FX two-way swings
Russian nuclear deterrence / European security tensions / capital flows to safe havens / gold / Treasuries benefit
Sources
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-12
Open report
Updates
  • Trump may cut federal fuel tax to address domestic gasoline price pressure
  • US Justice Department requests to maintain 10% global tariffs; trade uncertainty persists during appeal
  • Fed faces inflationary pressure from energy shock; rate cut expectations delayed
  • ECB may maintain tightening stance due to geopolitical risks
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply plummets / Oil prices surge / Inflation expectations rise / Risk asset sell-off
China-US summit outcome / Trade policy direction / Corporate confidence and exchange rate volatility
US-Iran ceasefire collapse / Full-scale Middle East war / Safe-haven flows into gold / dollar
US sanctions on Iran oil / China energy security risk / RMB depreciation pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-05-11
Open report
Updates
  • US federal government forced to issue more debt due to worsening cash flow, bond market pressure may force Treasury to adjust issuance pace
  • BIS warns fiscal policy response to Iran war risk may exacerbate inflation, central banks face dilemma
  • Trump to discuss Iran issue with Xi during China visit, may pressure China to reduce Iranian oil imports
  • UK expected to lose 163,000 jobs in 2026 due to Iran war, European recession risk rises
Linkage
US warships blockade Iran / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / oil supply disruption fears / oil price surge / inflation expectations rise
Trump rejects Iran ceasefire / risk aversion surges / funds flow into gold / USD / risk asset sell-off
US issues more debt / bond supply shock / yields rise / tech stock valuations pressured / stock market decline
Iran war / UK recession signal / global growth concerns / risk appetite deteriorates
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
Reference Links
2026-05-10
Open report
Updates
  • US awaits Iran's response to peace proposal; rejection could lead to further military escalation
  • Trump-Xi Beijing summit may focus on Iran, trade, and sanctions issues
  • US Court of International Trade rejects 10% global tariff; government may appeal or seek legislative alternatives
Linkage
US-Iran clashes / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil / Safe-haven assets / Global equities
US sanctions on Chinese companies / US-China tensions / Trade agreement risk / Risk appetite
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes / Brief risk appetite improvement / Risk-off if hopes fade
Israel-Lebanon conflict / Middle East instability / Oil risk premium
Sources
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
Reference Links
2026-05-09
Open report
Updates
  • Fed faces dilemma of solid employment but rising inflation risk; may hold rates steady in June
  • White House may increase Iran sanctions, but risk of war expansion limits room for action
  • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire opens diplomatic window, but substantive progress limited; focus on prisoner exchange implementation
  • Germany will be forced to enhance defense autonomy, likely increasing defense spending and adjusting relations with the U.S.
Linkage
Hormuz conflict / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation / Central bank tightening expectations
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire / Risk sentiment eases / Brief risk asset rebound
U.S. employment beat / USD strengthens / Emerging market pressure
U.S.-Germany relations deteriorate / NATO uncertainty / European safe-haven flows into USD / gold
Sources
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
Reference Links
2026-05-08
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. trade policy: After the court ruling that the 10% tariff is illegal, Trump may appeal or turn to other legal tools.
  • Middle East policy: The U.S.-Iran military conflict stalls ceasefire negotiations; the U.S. may increase sanctions and military pressure, while Iran may accelerate its nuclear program as leverage.
  • European developments: The UK and France jointly propose a post-conflict safe passage plan for the Strait of Hormuz, indicating Europe's readiness to intervene in waterway security after the conflict.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran exchange of fire / Risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations / Central bank policy dilemma
Tariff illegal / Trade uncertainty decreases / Business confidence recovers / Recession expectations ease
Military conflict / Risk-off sentiment / Gold / dollar strengthen / Risk asset sell-off
European aircraft carrier deployment / Risk of multinational intervention / Geopolitical linkage / Asset volatility rises
Sources
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-05-07
Open report
Updates
  • Trump administration employs dual-track strategy of military pressure and diplomatic negotiation; reaching a deal before China visit is a priority.
  • Iran is reviewing the US proposal, but core differences such as the uranium enrichment suspension deadline remain (Yonhap News TV).
  • Russia escalates pressure on Ukraine through diplomatic warnings, possibly paving the way for a Victory Day offensive.
Linkage
US-Iran deal progress / oil risk premium declines / global inflation expectations ease / stocks and bonds rise
Russia-Ukraine Victory Day escalation / safe-haven assets (gold / USD) strengthen / capital outflows from emerging markets
Israel-Lebanon conflict / Middle East risk premium rises / oil rebounds / global growth concerns
Oil tanker attack / shipping insurance costs rise / trade disruption risk increases
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-05-06
Open report
Updates
  • Trump suspends escort operations pending agreement but maintains blockade on Iranian ports; policy in wait-and-see mode.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio says offensive phase is over, followed by defensive blockade.
  • Iran strengthens sovereign control over the Strait through new rules, potentially as a bargaining chip.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / oil supply shortage expectations / inflation risk / central bank rate hike expectations
Trump suspends operations / short-term risk appetite recovery / stock market rebound, oil price pullback
Iran's new rules / actual transit obstruction / physical oil shortage / oil price upside
US-EU trade frictions / global trade uncertainty / safe-haven asset demand
Sources
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-05-05
Open report
Updates
  • The US maintains a dual approach of military and sanctions: escorting ships under the 'Liberation Plan' and sanctioning Iranian oil buyers.
  • Trump uses auto tariffs on Europe as a trade negotiation lever; the Turnberry agreement may be modified or scrapped.
  • US-China confrontation over Iranian oil escalates; China may retaliate with rare earths or technology controls.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Oil supply risk / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations / Risk asset sell-off
Iran attacks UAE / Regional security deterioration / Safe-haven buying / USD / gold rise
Trump tariff threat on Europe / EU export outlook worsens / Euro depreciation / European stock decline
US sanctions on Iranian oil / China import disruption / Global oil market tightening / Oil price upside
Sources
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-04
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. will unilaterally proceed with escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially bypassing UN authorization, facing international legal disputes.
  • Iran may respond by blocking the strait or attacking U.S. vessels; the ceasefire agreement faces collapse.
  • OPEC+ production increase aims to stabilize oil prices, but internal rifts may weaken its regulatory capacity.
  • U.S. sanctions on Russian energy may tighten further due to Ukraine's attacks; shadow fleet becomes a target.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Crude oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy tightening
NATO split / European security risk / Capital flows into USD / Gold / USD strengthens
OPEC+ production increase / Oil price under pressure / Inflation relief / Risk appetite improves
Ukraine attacks / Russian oil exports decline / Global heavy crude supply tightens
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
Reference Links
2026-05-03
Open report
Updates
  • US policy toward Iran: maximum pressure + military threats, no signs of easing in short term.
  • US toward Europe: reduce troops, impose auto tariffs, transatlantic relations tense.
  • US toward China: sanction Iran crude oil import network, China faces counter-pressure.
  • Japan monetary policy: increased FX intervention, but treating symptoms not root causes.
Linkage
US-Iran talks collapse / military threats / Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil price surge / global risk sentiment deteriorates
Kuwait zero exports + Iran production cuts / supply gap / energy costs fuel inflation / central bank policy dilemma
US-China sanctions escalation / trade war spreads / supply chain restructuring / global trade shrinks
Yen intervention / non-USD currency volatility / carry trade unwinding / emerging market capital outflows
Sources
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-02
Open report
Updates
  • Trump's 60-day War Powers Act deadline has expired; he claims hostilities have ended to avoid congressional authorization, but actual military operations may continue
  • EU may quickly release a list of retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. beef, aircraft, and other goods
  • Bank of England warns Iran war will push up energy bills and mortgage rates, leaving monetary policy in a dilemma
Linkage
Auto tariffs / US-EU trade war / Global growth downgrade / Risk assets fall
US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Military strike risk / Oil price rise / Inflation expectations increase
Iran attacks US bases / Geopolitical premium rises / Gold safe-haven buying
War spending expansion / US fiscal deficit / Long-term rate concerns
Sources
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-05-01
Open report
Updates
  • US policy on Iran: Trump rejects Iran's proposal, insists on nuclear deal first then lifting blockade; Central Command has prepared military options.
  • Fed holds rates unchanged, but internal divisions on dovish bias may limit future rate cut space; focus on May meeting minutes.
  • Japan's Ministry of Finance may continue FX intervention, but effects are temporary; watch for US-Japan finance minister coordination.
Linkage
Hormuz blockade / oil supply disruption / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise / central bank policy dilemma
US-Iran military confrontation / risk of full-scale Middle East war / safe-haven assets (USD, gold) inflows / risk asset sell-off
UAE exit from OPEC+ / OPEC+ control weakens / oil price volatility rises / oil-producing countries' fiscal and geopolitical games
Japan FX intervention / yen short-term appreciation / carry trade unwinding / Asian FX chain reaction
Sources
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
Reference Links
2026-04-30
Open report
Updates
  • Fed holds rates unchanged, high energy prices may delay rate cut window, market focus shifts to whether Powell stays and potential Trump pressure.
  • US policy of long-term maritime blockade of Iran is clear, no signs of easing in short term, energy markets remain under pressure.
  • China's tough stance on EU's 'Made in Europe' bill may trigger retaliatory trade measures, watch May developments.
  • After UAE exits OPEC, whether OPEC+ can maintain production cuts is in doubt; Saudi Arabia may increase output to grab market share.
Linkage
US-Iran talks stalemate / Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil price surge / inflation expectations rise / global risk-off
Trump extends blockade + UAE exits OPEC / supply uncertainty increases / oil volatility spikes / energy stocks vs airlines divergence
China pressures EU / China-EU trade friction escalates / euro / CNY volatility / global supply chain costs rise
Powell stays + independence controversy / Fed policy path uncertainty / US yield curve steepens / bank stocks vs tech valuation pressure
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-29
Open report
Updates
  • The US Treasury bans payment of Hormuz transit fees and expands sanctions, aiming to cut Iran's revenue but potentially provoking a stronger Iranian response.
  • The EU and Germany call for UN Security Council intervention in the Hormuz crisis, but consensus is unlikely in the short term.
  • China's Foreign Ministry has expressed its stance on defending rights regarding sanctions on Chinese companies, intensifying the US-China game in energy and sanctions.
Linkage
UAE exit from OPEC / OPEC dissolution risk / production competition among countries / long-term oil price uncertainty
Strait of Hormuz blockade / crude oil supply disruption / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise
US-Iran stalemate continues / geopolitical risk premium / safe-haven assets (gold, USD) rise
World Bank energy price forecast / market adjustment of central bank policy expectations / increased volatility in risk assets
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
2026-04-28
Open report
Updates
  • US domestic: Trump assassination charge may deepen political divisions, but could temporarily boost sympathy for the incumbent president.
  • US-Iran talks: Trump evaluates peace plan, but US stance remains tough; negotiations progress slowly.
  • UN: Security Council discusses Strait of Hormuz issue; Germany calls for collective action.
  • EU: Pushes 'Made in Europe' localization, may trigger trade retaliation from China.
Linkage
Trump assassination attempt / Political uncertainty / Safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, Equities down
Hormuz blockade / Oil supply shock / Oil prices up / Inflation expectations up / Risk assets under pressure
US-Iran talks progress / Supply risk down / Risk appetite up (limited)
China-EU trade friction / Tariff / non-tariff barriers / Global trade slowdown / Affected currencies / stocks suffer
Sources
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
Reference Links
2026-04-27
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. domestic: Assassination may accelerate Trump approval rebound, strengthen hardline stance on Iran
  • U.S. toward Iran: Waiver termination plus naval interception operations, oil blockade and counter-blockade game intensifies
  • U.S. toward Israel: Verbal support for ceasefire but tacit action, Israeli military may expand operations in Lebanon
  • Russia-North Korea: Long-term military cooperation framework finalized, Russia may obtain North Korean ammunition support
Linkage
Trump assassination / political uncertainty / USD / gold up / risk assets down
Iran strait toll + U.S. waiver termination / oil supply contraction / oil prices up / inflation expectations rise
Israel-Lebanon conflict escalation / Middle East full-scale war risk / safe-haven assets strengthen
Russia-Ukraine nuclear facility attack / nuclear safety concerns / geopolitical premium expansion
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
Reference Links
2026-04-26
Open report
Updates
  • US expected to continue financial pressure on Iran via 'Economic Fury', while possibly promoting mine-clearing to restore Strait of Hormuz passage.
  • Trump faces election-year economic pressure, may adjust Iran policy to control oil prices, but diplomatic window has closed.
  • UK and other European countries will accelerate energy shortage contingency plans, possibly releasing strategic petroleum reserves.
  • Israel's policy toward Lebanon hardens; US may maintain limited support but tacitly approve crackdown on Hezbollah.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil price surge / Global inflation and central bank tightening expectations
US-Iran talks collapse / Geopolitical risk premium / Safe-haven assets (gold / USD) strengthen
Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalation / Middle East spillover risk / Crude oil liquidity tightens
Trump statements / Policy uncertainty / Stock market volatility amplifies
Sources
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-25
Open report
Updates
  • Federal Reserve: Expectations of Warsh's succession strengthen; balance sheet reduction may be accelerated, but weak consumer confidence could delay rate hikes.
  • US Treasury: Continues financial blockade on Iranian oil; after waivers expire, may expand secondary sanctions.
  • China's Ministry of Commerce: May retaliate by sanctioning US firms or restricting rare earth exports.
  • European Central Bank: Must monitor impact of Chinese sanctions on European manufacturing; may maintain accommodative stance.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Inflation expectations rise / Risk asset sell-off
US sanctions on Chinese refineries / Higher Chinese oil import costs / CNY depreciation pressure / Emerging market capital outflows
Consumer confidence collapse / US consumption slowdown / Recession expectations / US yield curve steepening inversion
Warsh's balance sheet reduction signal / Liquidity tightening / Higher rates / Equity valuation compression
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-24
Open report
Updates
  • US-Iran military standoff continues; diplomatic negotiations deadlocked; Iran refuses talks until blockade lifted
  • Trump not in a hurry to end the war; US sends additional aircraft carrier indicating long-term military presence
  • EU imposes consecutive sanctions on Russia, but internal divisions (e.g., Slovakia lawsuit) may weaken enforcement
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global risk assets decline
EU sanctions on Russia / Energy trade restrictions / European inflation pressure / Euro under pressure
Middle East war / Panama Canal fees double / Global trade costs rise
Tehran air defense activity / Ceasefire breakdown risk / Safe-haven demand boosts gold
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
Reference Links
2026-04-23
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. may continue strengthening energy supply chains to address inflation pressures and geopolitical risks.
  • The EU advancing loans to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia aims to maintain regional stability but may intensify energy tensions.
  • Germany's lowered growth forecast may prompt the Eurozone to adjust monetary policy to counter inflation.
  • The Trump administration extended the ceasefire but with no timeline for war's end, indicating ongoing foreign policy uncertainty.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz tension / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Inflation expectations rise
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Risk aversion rise / Gold and U.S. dollar rise
Ceasefire extension / Risk appetite improvement / Stock market rebound
Energy crisis / Economic growth downgrade / Risk assets under pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
Reference Links
2026-04-22
Open report
Updates
  • Federal Reserve Chair nomination hearing underway, increasing policy direction uncertainty
  • ECB President Lagarde focuses on energy shock, potentially affecting Eurozone monetary policy
  • U.S. maintains naval blockade on Iran, showing a hardline geopolitical stance
  • Japan's relaxation of weapons exports reflects deteriorating security environment and regional defense policy adjustments
Linkage
Iran talks breakdown / Rising Middle East geopolitical risk / Higher oil and gold prices / Inflation pressure
Strait of Hormuz tensions / Oil supply disruption / Global energy price volatility / Safe-haven sentiment
China-U.S. tensions / Sanctions risk / Safe-haven asset demand / Higher USD and gold prices
Fed policy expectations / USD and interest rate volatility / Global asset repricing / Stock market adjustments
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-21
Open report
Updates
  • Federal Reserve nomination raises independence concerns; if political intervention deepens, could undermine central bank's anti-inflation credibility.
  • U.S. blockade and sanctions policy on Iran unchanged; unless negotiation breakthrough, economic pressure will continue.
  • Oil price rise exacerbates global inflation pressure, central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy in response.
  • Trade sanctions risk extends, Trump's tariff threat could affect other countries' relations with Iran.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran negotiation breakdown / Middle East military escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade prolongs / Crude supply disruption / Oil price rise
Oil price rise / Global inflation expectation increase / Central bank policy tightening / Interest rate and dollar volatility / Stock market pressure
Regional conflict spreads / Energy crisis intensifies / Safe-haven asset demand increases / Gold and Treasury prices rise
Federal Reserve independence compromised / Monetary policy uncertainty / Market confidence declines / Risk asset sell-off
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
Reference Links
2026-04-20
Open report
Updates
  • The US may strengthen military deployments while keeping negotiation channels open, but threaten economic sanctions.
  • Iran may resort to asymmetric retaliation, such as blockading the strait or supporting proxy attacks.
  • The international community calls for restraint, but mediation efforts face challenges due to mutual distrust between the US and Iran.
Linkage
Escalation of US-Iran military conflict / Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz / Surge in oil prices / Global inflationary pressure
Stalled talks / Increased geopolitical uncertainty / Demand for safe-haven assets / Strengthening of US dollar and gold
Iran's强硬回应 / Regional supply disruptions / Energy market volatility / Stock market adjustments
Intensified great power competition / Rising global risk premium / Asset repricing
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-04-19
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. may expand sanctions and military actions against Iran to pressure it into reopening the strait.
  • Iran may seek external support or take further military responses to counter the U.S. blockade.
  • Major global economies may intervene to stabilize the oil market, such as by releasing strategic reserves.
Linkage
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Increased global inflation risk
U.S.-Iran tensions escalate / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and dollar strengthen / Stock markets under pressure
U.S. boards Iranian vessels / Geopolitical risks intensify / Oil supply concerns / Increased market volatility
Regional conflict expands / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Asset repricing
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-04-18
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. may continue pressuring Iran until an agreement is reached, with blockade measures likely to persist.
  • Europe plans accelerated multinational action to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting policy divergence with the U.S.
  • China maintains its stance on Taiwan Strait sovereignty and may take further countermeasures, requiring attention to diplomatic dynamics.
  • Global focus on oil supply security is rising, potentially driving more energy security initiatives.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz opening / increased oil supply / falling oil prices / inflation eases, stock markets rise
Middle East conflict escalation / oil supply risk / oil price volatility / safe-haven asset demand rises
U.S.-Iran negotiation progress / geopolitical tension eases / risk assets rise, oil prices face downward pressure
Taiwan Strait tensions / safe-haven sentiment / U.S. dollar and gold strengthen, risk assets face pressure
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
2026-04-17
Open report
Updates
  • G7 prepared to take measures to mitigate war economic impacts, potentially coordinating energy reserve releases.
  • IEA has stated readiness to release strategic petroleum reserves again to address supply shocks.
  • China's steady GDP growth may support relatively accommodative monetary policy in the Asian region.
  • Increased US military mobilization may lead to higher defense budgets, impacting fiscal policy.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil and fertilizer supply disruptions / Rising global inflation and slowing growth / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
Progress in US-Iran talks / Reduced Middle East geopolitical risk / Lower oil prices and stock market gains / Improved risk sentiment
Escalation of Russian airstrikes / Rising European security risks / Rising gold and US dollar / Increased risk-off sentiment
Strong China GDP growth / Boosted global macro confidence / Rebound in risk assets / Offsetting some geopolitical negative impacts
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-14
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. may continue pressuring Iran to reach an agreement, blockade measures could persist
  • China's monetary policy remains accommodative, credit growth supports economic stability
  • Countries may introduce subsidies and measures to cope with high oil price impacts
  • UN report warns of war's impact on global poverty, potentially driving diplomatic intervention
Linkage
U.S. blockade of Iranian ports / Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflation
Geopolitical tensions / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar
Positive Chinese economic data / Credit growth / Local market sentiment improves, but offset by global risks
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-04-13
Open report
Updates
  • Federal Reserve and other major central banks: The 'second-round inflation' risk from high oil prices may delay the rate-cutting process, or even spark discussions about rate hikes.
  • US policy: The Trump administration may leverage this to promote domestic energy production increases and seek congressional authorization or ally support to strengthen the blockade.
  • Iran policy: May accelerate nuclear activities as a bargaining chip, or seek long-term energy security agreements with China and Russia.
Linkage
Geopolitical military conflict (blockade) / Physical disruption of oil supply / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations heat up / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Risk asset valuations come under pressure
Escalating US-Iran confrontation / Regional security risk premium surges / Global risk aversion sentiment dominates / Capital flows into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / Risk assets are sold off
Energy crisis and inflation concerns / Corporate earnings expectations downgraded & consumer confidence dampened / Global economic recession risk increases / Cyclical stocks and commodities (excluding energy) weaken
Unilateral military action triggers international order turbulence / Long-term investment confidence damaged & supply chain restructuring accelerates / Global growth prospects dim / Market volatility (VIX) remains elevated
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
Reference Links
2026-04-12
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. may continue military pressure to weaken Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz
  • Iran maintains a hardline stance, insisting on control of the strait in negotiations, potentially prolonging conflict
  • Ukraine ceasefire implementation faces difficulties, with mutual accusations of violations hindering peace process
Linkage
U.S.-Iran negotiation deadlock / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Oil price increase / Rising inflation expectations
Escalating geopolitical tensions / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and dollar rise / Risk asset sell-off
Intensified military actions / Oil supply disruption / Global economic growth slowdown / Increased market volatility
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-11
Open report
Updates
  • The Federal Reserve may accelerate rate hikes due to stronger-than-expected inflation.
  • US tariff policies face legal challenges, increasing uncertainty in trade relations.
  • Geopolitical conflicts may prompt more countries to adopt protectionist measures.
  • Rising energy prices intensify global inflationary pressure, central bank policies tighten.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Oil price rises / Inflation rises / Rate hike expectations
Geopolitical tensions / Safe-haven demand increases / Gold and US dollar strengthen
US CPI exceeds expectations / Federal Reserve policy tightening / Global asset volatility
Trade uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Market sentiment turns cautious
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
Reference Links
2026-04-10
Open report
Updates
  • Global central banks may pause rate hikes due to falling oil prices, but supply chain risks support inflation expectations.
  • U.S. trade policy tightening, metal import restrictions may affect global supply chains and tariffs.
  • Reduced geopolitical risk may decrease safe-haven demand, impacting gold and dollar trends.
  • EU faces energy crisis, policies may shift towards supply diversification and reserve building.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran ceasefire / reduced geopolitical risk / lower oil prices / rising stock markets / decreased safe-haven asset demand
Strait of Hormuz closure / global oil supply disruption / higher oil prices / rising inflation / central bank policy tightening
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire / eased regional tensions / decreased safe-haven demand / rebound in risk assets / euro stability
Trump trade policy / global trade tensions / deteriorating risk sentiment / stronger dollar / pressure on commodities
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
Reference Links
2026-04-09
Open report
Updates
  • Fed focuses on two-way economic risks from war
  • Increased uncertainty in US NATO policy
  • China calls for resumption of strait navigation, playing a constructive role
  • Pakistan mediates ceasefire to promote negotiations
Linkage
Strait closure / oil supply disruption / inflation rise / central bank policy response
US-Iran negotiations / geopolitical risk easing / oil price drop and risk asset rise
US dollar decline / improved global liquidity / stock market rise
NATO dissolution risk / geopolitical tension / increased demand for safe-haven assets
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-08
Open report
Updates
  • US policy: Focus on negotiations over the next two weeks, possibly exchanging 'temporary ceasefire' for Strait opening, but long-term strategy remains ambiguous.
  • Iran policy: Opening the Strait in exchange for temporary military pressure relief, but maintains core positions like permanent ceasefire and nuclear rights.
  • Israel policy: Skeptical of direct US-Iran talks, may seek to maintain military deterrence or act independently.
Linkage
Middle East conflict intensity / Strait of Hormuz navigation status / Global oil actual supply and expectations / Oil price / Global inflation and central bank policy paths
US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk premium / Global risk-off sentiment / Asset prices like gold, USD, Treasuries
Conflict spillover risk / Regional stability and global trade route security / Supply chain costs and global growth expectations / Cyclical asset performance
US internal political divisions on Iran policy / Policy coherence and credibility / Long-term attractiveness and risk premium of USD assets
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-07
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. policy toward Iran is fluctuating, with Trump using a deadline to pressure a deal.
  • Iran seeks a permanent ceasefire solution but demands sanctions relief and regional security agreements.
  • Middle Eastern countries may intervene to mediate and stabilize energy markets and regional security.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Inflation rises / Central bank policy tightening
Strait of Hormuz risk / Global oil trade受阻 / Economic recession concerns
Ukraine attacks Russian energy facilities / Europe's energy crisis worsens / Euro depreciation
U.S.-Iran negotiation progress / Risk sentiment improves / Oil prices retreat
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-06
Open report
Updates
  • US policy toward Iran shifts toward military threats, potentially strengthening sanctions or direct intervention to force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • OPEC+'s decision to increase production shows oil-producing countries attempting to balance the market, but geopolitical risks may limit its effectiveness.
  • Iran may continue asymmetric strategies, closing the strait and attacking energy facilities to exert pressure.
Linkage
Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price increase and inflation rise
US-Iran military confrontation / Middle East instability / Safe-haven asset demand rise / Gold and US dollar strengthen
OPEC+ production increase / Supply increase expectations / Oil price volatility / Risk asset adjustments
Geopolitical tensions / Global growth concerns / Stock market decline and bond yield decrease
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-04-05
Open report
Updates
  • The US may further increase military spending, pushing for passage of a record defense budget.
  • The Fed faces inflationary pressure as geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices; monetary policy may tighten.
  • China may introduce countermeasures in response to US tech restrictions, affecting trade policy.
  • Europe may attempt to mediate the US-Iran conflict, but with limited effect, increasing regional diplomatic pressure.
  • The Iranian military responds to US President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, stating it will firmly defend national rights and make aggressors pay the price.
  • Trump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while the US continues searching for missing pilots.
Linkage
US-Iran tensions / Oil supply disruption risk / Rising oil prices / Rising inflation expectations
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold and USD rise
Trade sanctions / Global supply chain risk / Stock market volatility
Increased defense spending / Widening fiscal deficit / Interest rate pressure
Sources
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
Reference Links
2026-04-04
Open report
Updates
  • The Federal Reserve may maintain or strengthen its hawkish stance due to strong employment data, with interest rate hike expectations rising.
  • The US government faces a crisis of trust, and military policy may become more aggressive, increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Multiple countries may take action to reopen the Hormuz Strait to alleviate global oil supply pressure.
  • Conflict escalation may prompt increased international diplomatic mediation, but breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term.
  • The US March job market performance exceeded expectations, with an unexpected increase in new job creation.
  • The US Department of Labor releases March employment data: non-farm payrolls increase by 178,000, unemployment rate falls to 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.
Linkage
US-Iran conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflation
Hormuz Strait blockade / Global trade disruption / Economic slowdown and market risk-off
Strong US employment data / Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations / US dollar appreciation
Geopolitical tensions / Risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-03
Open report
Updates
  • US may impose further tariffs or adjust trade policies, focusing on pharmaceuticals and metals
  • EU to debate adjustments to Russia sanctions, Hungary and other member states push to cancel energy sanctions
  • UK and allies may introduce new sanctions against Iran to maintain Strait of Hormuz shipping
  • Global central banks face inflation pressure from rising oil prices, may delay rate cuts or tighten policy
  • US Trade Representative continues to push for market access, but new tariffs may offset progress
  • International organizations like UN call for ceasefire, but diplomatic efforts face challenges
Linkage
Iran war / Strait of Hormuz disruptions / Reduced oil supply / Oil price increase / Rising global inflation
US imposes pharmaceutical tariffs / Heightened trade tensions / Supply chain disruptions / Rising risk-off sentiment / Equity market decline
Middle East conflict escalation / Rising geopolitical risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets / Gold and US Dollar strengthen
Sanctions discussions / Shipping risks / Rising energy costs / Economic growth slowdown / Central bank policy adjustments
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
Reference Links
2026-04-02
Open report
Updates
  • Trump administration may continue pressuring Iran while seeking diplomatic solutions amid mixed signals
  • European countries may strengthen energy security measures and coordinate responses to Strait of Hormuz crisis
  • Global coordination possible on strategic oil reserve releases to stabilize prices
  • NATO internal emergency meetings to discuss Trump's remarks, potentially leading to defense policy adjustments
  • U.S. military aid policy to Ukraine may be influenced by geopolitical maneuvering
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy adjustments
Trump's NATO remarks / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Market volatility
Energy crisis / Western recession risks / Stock market declines / Risk-off sentiment rises
Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover / Geopolitical risks intensify / Gold and USD rise
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
Reference Links
2026-04-01
Open report
Updates
  • ECB may adjust monetary policy path due to inflation data, rate hike expectations heating up
  • US trade policy shifts, establishing refund portal to return Trump tariffs to ease trade tensions
  • US government seeks to reduce military involvement in Iran war, but faces ally pressure and domestic political dynamics
  • EU calls for reduced air travel and promotion of remote work to address economic challenges from oil crisis
Linkage
Middle East geopolitical events / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy response
NATO alliance dynamics / Geopolitical uncertainty / Safe-haven asset flows
Energy price changes / Consumer confidence and economic activity / Corporate earnings and market sentiment
Sources
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
Reference Links
2026-03-31
Open report
Updates
  • G7 is coordinating global policies to address energy crisis; may introduce joint intervention measures to stabilize oil prices.
  • Trump administration sets April 6 as negotiation deadline; policy direction depends on Iran's response.
  • France calls on countries not to ban hydrocarbon exports to ease supply tightness.
  • US may have Arab states share war costs, affecting regional alliance dynamics.
  • Central banks may face inflationary pressure; policy tightening expectations rise.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation
Risk-off sentiment rises / Stock market decline / Demand for safe assets like gold and US dollar increases
G7 policy coordination / Energy intervention measures / Oil price stabilization expectations / Market sentiment eases
US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk declines / Oil supply recovery / Inflationary pressure eases
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-30
Open report
Updates
  • US enhances military deployment in Middle East, policy direction unclear, may involve ground operations.
  • Regional diplomatic mediation such as Pakistan meeting aims to ease tensions.
  • Fed policy signals will influence market sentiment; monitor officials' speeches.
  • Global trade policies may adjust supply chains due to conflict impacts.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Global inflation pressure
Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen / Equities under pressure
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy supply concerns / Increased safe-haven asset demand
Diplomatic mediation efforts / Tension easing / Risk sentiment improves / Market rebound
Sources
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-29
Open report
Updates
  • US may continue deploying troops to Middle East, strengthening military presence to counter Iranian threats.
  • Iran may formally withdraw from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, intensifying international nuclear crisis.
  • Trump administration pressures Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but NATO allies' responses diverge.
  • Global central banks may maintain or tighten monetary policy due to inflationary pressures.
  • Rising anti-war sentiment may affect sustainability of US domestic policy.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening / Market risk-off
Houthi attacks / Red Sea shipping risks / Supply-chain inflation / Safe-haven asset demand / Gold and dollar rally
Iranian nuclear threats / Geopolitical uncertainty / Increased market volatility / Risk asset sell-off
Prolonged war / Economic growth slowdown / Corporate earnings decline / Stock market correction / Rising bond demand
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-03-28
Open report
Updates
  • G7 calls for halt to attacks on civilians, but military actions may continue, with limited policy coordination.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Rubio predicts war will end within weeks, diplomatic efforts accelerate, but conditions diverge significantly.
  • Europe lowers climate targets to mitigate energy shock, showing policy flexibility in response to geopolitical crisis.
  • U.S. extends emergency status related to trade and Russia, protectionist tendencies persist.
  • Trump announces no strikes on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, leaving time for diplomacy, but risks remain.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Inflation pressure rises
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global shipping obstructed / Supply chain risks rise / Economic slowdown
USD / JPY breaks through 160 / Foreign exchange market volatility / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Safe-haven asset demand
Ukraine attacks Russian oil facilities / Russian exports decrease / Global oil supply tightens / Energy prices surge
Sources
Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / n-tv Politik / Tagesschau / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-03-27
Open report
Updates
  • The Trump administration may continue using military threats as negotiation leverage, with mixed policy signals.
  • The Fed may adjust monetary policy due to inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, increasing rate hike expectations.
  • G7 nations await U.S. clarification on its Iran war stance, potentially affecting international cooperation and diplomatic coordination.
  • U.S. domestic political pressure may force the government to adjust Middle East policy to alleviate election concerns.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation risk
Geopolitical tension escalation / Rising safe-haven sentiment / Increased gold and dollar demand / Asset price volatility
Rising oil prices / U.S. inflationary pressure / Fed rate hike expectations / Global interest rate volatility
WTO reform failure / Rising trade protectionism / Global economic growth slowdown / Declining market risk appetite
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-26
Open report
Updates
  • ECB will closely monitor inflation risks, potentially delaying rate cuts to address energy supply shocks.
  • US may tighten sanctions enforcement, deploy additional troops to the Gulf, though diplomatic pressure could prompt negotiation attempts.
  • NATO needs to respond to territory attacks, likely strengthening eastern flank defenses, raising geopolitical risk premiums.
  • Iran insists on five conditions, including control over the Strait of Hormuz; negotiation progress depends on US concessions.
  • Global energy policy may shift towards reserve releases and alternative supplies to alleviate price pressures.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalates / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Oil prices rise / Inflation risks increase
Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies / Russian energy exports受阻 / Global supply tightens / Safe-haven asset demand rises
US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Geopolitical uncertainty persists / Market sentiment risk-off / Gold and USD strengthen
Energy crisis / European inflation pressures / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Interest rates rise / Equities pressured
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-25
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. may further deploy military forces in the Middle East, such as reinforcing the 82nd Airborne Division, and update sanctions on Iran.
  • China supports bank credit expansion through fiscal policy, focusing on technological innovation and infrastructure sectors.
  • Global central banks may adjust monetary policies due to energy inflation risks; monitor interest rate path changes.
  • Trump administration's contradictory diplomatic strategies require observation of subsequent military and economic policy coordination.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase
LNG supply disruption / Energy prices rise / Inflationary pressures increase
China special treasury bonds / Bank credit expansion / Real economy support
Geopolitical tensions / Market volatility intensifies / Equities face pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
Reference Links
2026-03-24
Open report
Updates
  • International Energy Agency may release strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate supply crisis but warns it cannot fundamentally resolve shortages.
  • China launches fiscal and financial coordination policies to stimulate domestic demand; central government allocates 100 billion yuan to support investment and consumption.
  • Trump administration's Iran policy is contradictory; strikes are paused but negotiation signals are unclear, increasing uncertainty.
  • Bahrain pushes for UN Security Council approval to use force to protect the Strait of Hormuz; monitor international reactions.
  • Global central banks may adjust policies in response to oil price volatility and changes in inflation expectations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
IEA releases reserves / Falling oil prices / Declining inflation expectations / Central bank policy adjustments
China fiscal stimulus / Domestic demand growth / Improved economic expectations / Asian stock markets benefit
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Russian oil supply disruptions / Global energy price volatility / Risk-off sentiment heats up
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-03-23
Open report
Updates
  • Trump administration initiates preparations for negotiations with Iran, proposing six demands including nuclear program limits
  • NATO Secretary General calls on member states to assemble to reopen Strait of Hormuz, supports US military action
  • UK Prime Minister Starmer convenes COBRA meeting to assess economic impact of Iran war
  • US may adjust military strategy from airstrikes to potential ground operations in response to strait blockade
  • Iran presents tough negotiation conditions such as ceasefire and compensation, with significant divergence in positions
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation and risk-off sentiment
Strait of Hormuz blockade threat / Oil price surge / Capital flows back to US
Iranian retaliatory attacks / Regional instability / Gold and USD rise
Negotiation progress uncertainty / Increased market volatility, affecting asset prices
Sources
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-22
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. policy contradictions: Trump hints at scaling back military operations while increasing troops, unclear policy direction adds market uncertainty.
  • G7 may take joint action to secure energy supplies, but member coordination and specific measures remain to be seen.
  • EU accelerates natural gas reserves to meet winter demand, making energy security a priority.
  • Iran maintains confrontational stance, diplomatic dialogue prospects dim, likely to continue military retaliation.
  • NATO needs to repair internal rifts, otherwise alliance effectiveness will be questioned.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening
Geopolitical tensions intensify / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and U.S. dollar rise / Stock markets face pressure
Energy price surge / Increased corporate costs / Economic growth slows / Risk asset sell-off
NATO internal fragmentation / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Increased market volatility
Sources
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-21
Open report
Updates
  • US lifts some Iranian oil sanctions, aiming to increase global supply and stabilize oil prices
  • Fed focuses on data centers pushing up inflation, likely maintaining high interest rate policy
  • G7 coordinates release of strategic petroleum reserves to address energy market volatility
  • International community calls for de-escalation, but military operations continue, with insufficient policy coordination
Linkage
Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Inflation rise / Fed policy tightening
Energy facility attacks / Natural gas price surge / Increased industrial costs / Economic growth slowdown / Stock market decline
Geopolitical risk / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and US dollar rally / Global asset allocation adjustment
Sources
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
Reference Links
2026-03-20
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. fiscal and military policy contradictions: Treasury plans to relax Iranian oil sanctions to stabilize oil prices, while Defense seeks massive war funding, potentially offsetting each other's effects and increasing policy uncertainty.
  • U.S. Congress as key variable: $200 billion war funding request faces Republican internal divisions; passage, scale will affect war sustainability and fiscal outlook.
  • Europe insists on independent diplomacy and multilateralism: Expected to continue distancing from U.S. radical Middle East policy and seek alternative solutions to stabilize its own energy supply.
  • Global central banks in dilemma: Rising energy prices push inflation, but geopolitical risks suppress growth; major central banks (Fed, ECB) may extend wait-and-see period, while some emerging market central banks (e.g., Philippines) have begun rate cut cycles.
  • Energy intervention tools on standby: Possibility of U.S. releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increases, becoming a potential policy tool to curb oil prices.
Linkage
Middle East energy facilities attacked / Physical disruption of oil and gas supply / Energy prices surge / Global inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy becomes more cautious / Growth expectations downgraded
U.S. policy divergence (troop increase vs. sanction relief) / Energy supply outlook uncertainty increases / Oil price volatility rises / Inflation and growth expectations become ambiguous / Asset pricing confusion
U.S. Dollar Index sharply weakens / Capital flows to non-U.S. assets / EUR, GBP, and other currencies appreciate, emerging market capital inflow pressure eases / Global risk sentiment partially warms
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. dollar) and war-related assets (energy, defense stocks) attract capital / Market internal rotation accelerates
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
2026-03-19
Open report
Updates
  • The Fed kept interest rates unchanged; future decisions will depend on inflation and employment data, with the Middle East situation adding uncertainty.
  • The US eased sanctions on Venezuelan oil to increase global supply, countering oil price pressures from the Middle East conflict.
  • The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, maintaining regional monetary policy stability.
  • The Middle East conflict may force countries to adjust foreign and energy policies, including international coordination and sanctions measures.
  • The Fed mentioned uncertainty regarding the economic impact of the Middle East situation, which could affect future policy communication.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressure
Fed rates unchanged / Market expectations met / Stable US dollar and global asset repricing
Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Increased demand for gold and US dollar / Stock markets and risk assets under pressure
Geopolitical risks / Regional security concerns / Safe-haven capital flows impact emerging markets
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-18
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. may take unilateral military action to secure the Strait of Hormuz but faces strategic risks and ally opposition.
  • Europe promotes diplomatic solutions, avoiding direct military intervention, focusing on negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait.
  • International Energy Agency continues releasing strategic petroleum reserves, but only 1-2 million barrels daily, insufficient to offset structural supply reduction.
  • South Korea considers rapid supplementary budget compilation and constitutional revision to address energy shocks and economic uncertainty.
  • Fed hawkish expectations persist due to inflationary pressures; U.S. personal consumption expenditure data shows defensive consumer attitudes.
  • Global central banks may tighten monetary policy due to rising oil prices, exacerbating economic slowdown risks.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation surge
U.S.-Europe alliance tensions / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold and U.S. dollar strengthen
Oil price rise / Consumer country economic slowdown / Monetary policy tightening / Stock markets under pressure
Geopolitical risk escalation / Market volatility intensifies / Capital flow changes / Emerging market currency depreciation
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-17
Open report
Updates
  • US may continue pressuring allies to participate in Strait of Hormuz escort missions, but many countries refuse, shifting to diplomatic pressure.
  • China maintains stable economic policies, supporting growth and global supply chain stability.
  • Europe seeks diplomatic resolution to Hormuz issue, ruling out military action, focusing on energy security.
  • Iran may seek negotiations or retaliatory actions; leadership crisis heightens uncertainty.
Linkage
Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation rise
Falling oil prices / Easing inflation expectations / Risk asset rally
US-China trade consultations / Global supply chain stability / Risk sentiment improvement
China's strong economy / Global demand support / Commodities and stock markets benefit
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
Reference Links
2026-03-16
Open report
Updates
  • Implementation of the IEA petroleum reserve release will critically impact short-term oil prices; immediate release in Asia may alleviate supply pressure.
  • The U.S. may further evaluate options for attacking Iranian oil facilities, depending on Iran's behavior in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Focus of U.S.-China trade negotiations is on the end-of-month summit; monitor substantive progress on tariff adjustments and rare earth export controls.
  • Gulf states may enhance air defense and shipping protection measures in response to continued Iranian attacks.
  • Global central banks may maintain a hawkish stance due to rising inflation risks, but Middle East conflict adds economic uncertainty.
  • Progress of the U.S. Section 301 investigation may trigger trade retaliation, affecting global supply chains and tariff expectations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping risks / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflationary pressure / Central bank policy adjustments
U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical pressure / Tariff and export control uncertainty / Global supply chain disruptions / Risk asset volatility and safe-haven demand
IEA petroleum reserve release / Increased market supply / Alleviates short-term oil price pressure / Lowers inflation expectations and risk premium
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Increased regional security risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar / Stock market pressure
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-15
Open report
Updates
  • The US may push for a multinational naval coalition to counter Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • China's '15th Five-Year Plan' emphasizes stable growth and innovation, supporting economic expectations.
  • Iran insists on closing the Strait, with dim prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
  • Europe may protest Black Sea attacks but has limited capacity for action.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressures
Strait of Hormuz closure / Transport disruptions / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
Geopolitical tensions / Deteriorating risk sentiment / Stock market declines and bond yield volatility
China policy stability / Regional growth expectations / Relative resilience of Asian assets
Sources
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-14
Open report
Updates
  • The U.S. may further escalate military actions, including strikes on more Iranian oil infrastructure.
  • Central banks may adjust monetary policy to address inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, such as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.
  • U.S. easing of sanctions on Russian oil may continue to balance global supply, but Middle East risks dominate the market.
  • Diplomatic mediation channels are blocked, with the Trump administration favoring military solutions, increasing policy uncertainty.
  • Regional countries like the UAE may strengthen defensive measures, affecting business and investment environments.
  • Global energy policy may shift toward supply diversification to reduce dependence on Middle East oil.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz risk / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and inflationary pressure
Middle East geopolitical tension / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the dollar / Asset price volatility
U.S. troop deployment and military action / Expanded regional instability / Global risk aversion / Stock market declines and bond market gains
Oil supply shock / Central bank policy adjustments / Interest rate and exchange rate volatility / Global market spillover effects
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
Reference Links
2026-03-13
Open report
Updates
  • Major central banks like the Fed will find it harder to pivot to rate cuts, with secondary inflation risks from high oil prices becoming a core policy consideration.
  • The US may consider and formally announce the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to curb oil prices.
  • China's '15th Five-Year Plan' will focus on technological self-reliance, industrial chain security, and boosting domestic demand, with related industrial policies to follow.
  • Under energy security pressure, Europe may accelerate alternative supply sources and green energy deployment.
  • Fiscal policies in various countries may shift more towards addressing the impact of rising energy prices on low-income groups.
Linkage
Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz / Sharp drop in global oil trade flow / Oil price surge / Rising global inflation expectations / Strengthened expectations of central bank policy tightening / Pressure on risk asset valuations
Escalation of US-Iran military confrontation / Rising regional full-scale war risk premium / Capital flight from risk assets like stocks / Rush into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / US dollar strengthens, gold price rises
Oil price surge / Rising corporate costs (especially transport, manufacturing) & declining consumer purchasing power / Downgraded corporate profit expectations & slowed growth expectations / Double hit to stock earnings and valuations
Persistent geopolitical uncertainty / Global capital expenditure and trade activity turn cautious / Global growth prospects dim / Cyclical assets underperform
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-03-12
Open report
Updates
  • US and IEA petroleum reserve releases will continue, but if the conflict escalates, more intervention measures may be needed.
  • G7 countries may strengthen coordination to promote diplomatic solutions, but military operations are unlikely to de-escalate in the short term.
  • The mediating role of emerging powers like China may increase, potentially affecting the geopolitical balance.
  • European countries face energy price pressures and may introduce subsidies or reserve release policies.
  • Trade policy shifts toward protectionism; new investigations may trigger retaliatory tariffs, impacting global trade.
  • Middle Eastern countries may accelerate efforts to reduce security dependence on the US and seek diversified partnerships.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption / Reduced global oil supply / Oil price surge / Rising inflationary pressure / Central bank policy tightening / Decline in risk assets
Iranian threats and attacks / Oil supply risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Intensified stock market volatility
Global petroleum reserve releases / Increased supply / Downward pressure on oil prices / Easing of inflation expectations / Partial recovery in risk sentiment / Potential equities rebound
Escalation of trade investigations / Rising tariff risks / Slowing global trade / Growth concerns / Demand for safe-haven assets / FX market volatility
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-11
Open report
Updates
  • The Fed may adjust its rate path due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks, leaning hawkish.
  • Bank of Canada's March 18 rate decision focuses on food inflation, with rate hike expectations rising.
  • EU diplomatic policy coordination faces difficulties, struggling to form a unified stance on the Iran conflict.
  • U.S. military strategy lacks a clear exit plan, with prolonged conflict potentially increasing fiscal pressure.
  • Global central banks need to balance inflation control with economic growth, with policy responses potentially lagging market changes.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold / U.S. dollar appreciation
Oil supply risks / Oil price volatility / Inflationary pressures
Geopolitical uncertainty / Growth concerns / Stock market declines
Rising inflation / Central bank rate hikes / Currency strengthening
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
Reference Links
2026-03-10
Open report
Updates
  • G7 finance ministers' meeting may introduce joint strategic petroleum reserve releases or coordinated production increases to stabilize oil prices.
  • The Trump administration may further exempt oil sanctions, increasing imports from countries like Russia to ease supply.
  • Central banks like the Fed may accelerate interest rate hikes due to surging inflation, but Middle East risks could temporarily slow tightening pace.
  • The US Department of Energy pledges to lower gasoline prices; specific measures such as subsidies or regulatory interventions remain to be seen.
  • The international community may push for diplomatic mediation to end the Iran war, but progress is likely to be slow.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Worsening global inflation
Oil price surge / Asia-Pacific stock market plunge / Spread of risk-off sentiment / Rise in gold and USD
Trump's conciliatory remarks / Expectations for conflict end / Oil price decline / Risk asset rebound
G7 policy coordination / Increased oil supply / Oil price stabilization / Improved market sentiment
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
Reference Links
2026-03-07
Open report
Updates
  • The Fed may lean dovish due to weak employment, but rising oil prices intensify inflation concerns, creating policy path uncertainty.
  • US policy shift allows India to purchase Russian oil in an attempt to alleviate energy pressure, but geopolitical risks remain.
  • International criticism of US-Israel actions increases, squeezing diplomatic negotiation space and hindering multilateral consultations.
  • Internal divisions within the Trump team expose policy contradictions, potentially affecting the coherence of US foreign policy.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank tightening expectations
Weak employment data / Rate cut expectations rise / USD weakens / equity volatility
Geopolitical tensions intensify / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Gold and oil prices increase
Gulf production disruption / Oil price surge / Growth concerns / Market risk sentiment deteriorates
Sources
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
Reference Links
2026-03-05
Open report
Updates
  • US likely to continue military pressure on Iran, aiming to prevent nuclear proliferation and weaken Iranian leadership
  • Tariff hike plan to be implemented this week; Trump administration emphasizes protecting US interests but may face domestic criticism
  • Potential diplomatic contacts to ease Middle East tensions, but both sides maintain tough public stances
  • Countries may introduce measures to address oil supply risks, such as releasing strategic reserves
  • Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy response to geopolitical risks and inflation
Linkage
US-Iran conflict escalation / Middle East oil supply risk / Oil price rise and safe-haven asset (gold, dollar) demand
Tariff hike to 15% / Increased global trade costs / Economic growth slowdown and stock market volatility
Geopolitical risk easing rumors (US-Iran contact) / Improved market sentiment / Stock market rebound and oil price adjustment
Positive economic data (US employment) / Supporting risk assets / Partially offsetting geopolitical negative impacts
Sources
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-03-04
Open report
Updates
  • The US may continue military strikes against Iran but faces international pressure and domestic opposition.
  • European countries like France call for adherence to international law and may deploy military forces to maintain regional stability.
  • Middle Eastern countries need to adjust energy policies to cope with supply disruptions, potentially seeking alternative sources.
  • Global central banks may face inflationary pressure and need to weigh monetary policy responses to rising energy prices.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Global inflationary pressure and stock market decline
Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Sell-off in risk assets
Trump's trade threats / Global trade uncertainty / Market volatility and inflows into safe-haven assets
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-03
Open report
Updates
  • US may further escalate military actions, including ground troop deployment, to destroy Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program
  • OPEC+ may adjust production policies in response to market volatility; production increase decision aims to stabilize oil prices but effectiveness is uncertain
  • Governments may release strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate oil price shock, such as South Korea announcing 208 days of reserves
  • Fed and other central banks' interest rate hike paths may be influenced by inflation pressure driven by rising oil prices, potentially adopting a more hawkish policy stance
  • US urges citizens to evacuate multiple Middle Eastern countries, reflecting deteriorating regional security situation, potentially impacting diplomatic and economic activities
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge / Increased inflation pressure and safe-haven sentiment rise
Iranian retaliation and US attacks / Expansion of military uncertainty / Increased safe-haven asset demand / Gold and US dollar rise
OPEC+ production increase / Increased oil supply / Potential downward pressure on oil prices / Inflation expectation moderation and market stabilization
Rising oil prices / Increased global energy costs / Impact on economic growth and corporate profits / Intensified stock market volatility
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-02
Open report
Updates
  • U.S. may strengthen military deployment, President Trump vows to continue attacks.
  • Iran's interim leadership committee may seek diplomatic channels or escalate conflict.
  • UN Security Council has convened emergency meeting, urging restraint.
  • Global nations may impose sanctions or support diplomatic resolution.
  • China and Russia call for ceasefire, promote multilateral dialogue.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Oil price increase / Inflation expectations rise
Geopolitical uncertainty / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and U.S. dollar increase
Conflict spillover to other regions / Global supply chain disruption / Stock market decline
Continued U.S. military action / Increased fiscal spending / U.S. dollar strengthens
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links