信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-05-17
来源数
80
大陆
3
港澳台
0
海外
77
官媒/官方
6
非官媒
74
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
78
中文覆盖
3
英文覆盖
37
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Australia / Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体Le Monde International · 海外 / 媒体The New York Times · 海外 / 媒体Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体n-tv Politik · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合Die Zeit Politics · 海外 / 媒体The New Indian Express · 海外 / 媒体SOL · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #3 · 海外 / 媒体9News Australia · 海外 / 媒体
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 77 个，大陆信源 3 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 37 个，中文信源 3 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: SC原油 / AU黄金 / FU燃油 / AG白银
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 24 / 待复核 24
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SC 5y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 3y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-05-17
2026-05-17
进展要点
- 美国对俄石油制裁全面恢复，后续可能加大执行力度。
- 中美关税谈判前景不明，双方各执一词，需关注后续公报。
- 伊朗即将公布霍尔木兹海峡机制，或包括收费与定向通行限制。
- 美国对台军售可能成为中美谈判筹码，交付存在变数。
关联路径
伊朗海峡收费 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价暴涨 / 全球通胀预期回升
台湾独立言论 / 中美对峙升级 / 地缘风险溢价 / 新兴市场资本外流
俄油制裁恢复 / 供应收紧 / 能源价格上行 / 欧洲经济压力
多线冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金美元 / 权益债券波动
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/17/iran-war-live-tehran-eyes-tolls-in-hormuz-trump-warns-of-very-bad-time?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/05/16/taiwan-revendique-son-independance-apres-une-mise-en-garde-de-donald-trump_6689757_3210.html
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/economy/china-tariffs-trump-summit.html
- [4] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-zu-waffenverkauf-an-taiwan-gutes-druckmittel-fuer-usa-50646913
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260517081519Kel
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Sanktionen-gegen-russisches-Oel-greifen-wieder-id30828365.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxOaTducmtkWk5TSUMzWHdKTmNsRkU3RnFDanVwaVUzTWVXY1d6YVhLYmpURjQ4MmZlVFJFTTRveEFvVnhlYUtVOFlCYVJDWFozX0VfTGtZSWlKanAwVU5uWUwzUXVOUXJZRGVza2hHdDF3VE5uT09KM0stcmFxWHhpbE5jOElXcUI2WjZOcndSUl9WdHVxMWF6YllFZF9JYlZyVUVjRjJXYWVwQlJvTWJYRFdJT2l4N0s3bV9lWTF0S2JEakJhWjJrc0QwMnpaWXVyanc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/israel-angriffe-libanon-sueden
- [9] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/16/uss-ford-returns-home-after-11-month-deployment-supporting-iran-war-and-maduros-capture
- [10] https://sol.iol.pt/opiniao/noticias/marco-serronha-a-guerra-do-golfo-de-2026-algumas-observacoes-estrategicas-e-geopoliticas-tempos-de-preocupacao-e-algumas-muitas-ilusoes-parte-1/20260516/6a0760770cf2d0ed34b846a1
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260516-mort-chef-branche-arm%C3%A9e-hamas-tu%C3%A9-par-frappe-isra%C3%A9lienne-ezzedine-al-haddad
- [12] https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-war-vote-congress-house-of-representatives-senate-usa-politics-news/a816e23a-d2e8-479d-8bf0-a4076caf9588
- [13] https://www.ertnews.gr/eidiseis/diethni/live-to-iran-tha-perasei-poly-dyskola-an-den-yparksei-symfonia-proeidopoiei-o-tramp
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2132w81jqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/755676/sad-nisu-produzile-uredbu-o-izuzecu-za-kupovinu-ruske-nafte
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/16/6a086573e4d4d885558b4580.html
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/k-biz/news
- [18] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260515000200880
- [19] https://www.la-croix.com/international/sommet-a-pekin-donald-trump-met-en-garde-taiwan-contre-toute-proclamation-d-independance-20260515
- [20] https://www.latribune.fr/article/transports/1686023441399214/liran-fait-etat-de-discussions-avec-des-pays-europeens-pour-franchir-le-detroit-dormuz
- [21] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/taiwan/4223757-20260516-chine-taiwan-affirme-etre-nation-independante-subordonnee-malgre-critiques-trump?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/16/taiwan-says-it-is-an-independent-nation-after-trump-arms-sale-remarks?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-apr%C3%A8s-la-mise-en-garde-de-trump-ta%C3%AFwan-rappelle-washington-%C3%A0-son-engagement-sur-les-ventes-d-armes
- [24] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-le-chef-de-la-branche-arm%C3%A9e-du-hamas-tu%C3%A9-%C3%A0-gaza
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/in-response-to-trump-taiwan-says-it-is-sovereign-and-independent?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE82V2RmaV9VT005Qk15ZWVIZ25yVmRHUXVFWS0weUVoSHZJc2pfQjZwT1N0R283VzU2SjZKY2pvNExRVmNxT3R3ZWtXcGxzMW1MQ2FtbFczdEQ4UWQyQnRKaXB6a25RWTR2M3hTaV94Y1Y?oc=5
- [27] https://www.la-croix.com/international/direct-guerre-iran-israel-usa-jour-78-moyen-orient-bilan-resume-aujourdhui-20260516
- [28] https://sol.iol.pt/internacional/noticias/medio-oriente-estreito-de-ormuz-sob-tensao-enquanto-paises-europeus-tentam-negociar-com-o-irao/20260516/6a08a0bc0cf27f6588a6a9d7
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
进展要点
- 美国对台政策可能转向战略模糊，具体调整需观察后续声明。
- 特朗普返美后将决定是否恢复对伊朗军事打击，停火谈判前景黯淡。
- 美国可能解除或维持对中国企业购买伊朗石油的制裁，影响全球油市。
- 欧洲经济受伊朗战争冲击，德国二季度增长预期减半。
关联路径
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260516083028hzn
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-16/10622124.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-haddad-hamas.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5HRjZxVTlZdTJNaGpKMWtMREpUeUtlWmVyYmQ4d0pEREdJN3pOdjdMZmJoT29SdWc2ZmowekRlVDlmaGpfRWlHZFdkc1hkX3BjYXBnelZn?oc=5
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260515-trump-xi-carry-on-westminster-the-french-pivot
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-triggered-challenges-across-the-world-uk-statement-at-the-un-economic-and-social-council
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640055-xi-trump-results-summit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-made-no-commitment-141341009.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/5/15/is-the-us-dialling-down-its-support-for-taiwan?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/death-toll-in-attack-on-kyiv-apartment-building-rises-may-15-2026/article70984671.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-iran-war-set-to-halve-growth-in-second-quarter/live-77168830?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515009551315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/will-make-decision-on-lifting-sanctions-on-chinese-firms-buying-iran-oil-trump/article70984451.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/xi-to-visit-us-on-september-24-at-trumps-invitation-china-says/articleshow/131121278.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605160830433MA
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBzRmtDckNTcWFyTER5RmVXWUd4TFdXLVBLLU00NnYyZFByNTgwcGVCcjFfS2ZSRDBOR2tpeFBpM2ljaUlTdGtNNnMzRE4xSHFzdjBrbGgtTDZKTzFuOWRfaEpkYnkzdXRwZjFKRy1ZMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNTGNXUWxwbG5FZ0kzQkdWTE9mQlNIaG1EckxUOVFfeVhkbkhXR09HdFFDNU9FTlNtT194emVtWUhQWTB4MVJMQ1RGcXRVTFRKRFNZZmtJTjFlQnBQZnFUR3VPZmhqdTRyanJQYnRweDYwUk1laHVCbXRnUjl0UUlqbmM5UzEtYkpwWTlJZFk5Y0ExQS15V0ZzUUdaMXZsYlBnc3Jrbkx5bEVYTWFzSVp2bWtnOVZZQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260515-chine-apr%C3%A8s-rencontre-avec-xi-trump-met-en-garde-ta%C3%AFwan-contre-toute-proclamation-ind%C3%A9pendance
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/zelenskyy-vows-response-after-russian-strike-kills-24-in-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/russia-pounds-kyiv-as-its-war-machine-grinds-to-a-near-standstill?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/asia/trump-china-arms-sales.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/europe/trump-xi-china-summit.html
2026-05-15
2026-05-15
进展要点
- 美联储主席更替后，关注沃什对通胀与就业的权衡，以及是否面临特朗普降息压力。
- 美中贸易谈判停滞，短期内关税政策维持现状，但双方可能转向技术领域限制。
- 霍尔木兹海峡多国军事任务可能演变为长期化，增加区域对峙风险。
- 美国对伊朗政策：中方承诺的约束力有限，军事选项仍存。
关联路径
伊朗霍尔木兹封锁风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难 / 避险
特习峰会无贸易协议 / 风险情绪下行 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场承压
台湾冲突警告 / 地缘溢价 / 半导体供应链中断风险 / 科技股抛售
美联储换帅 / 货币政策路径不确定性 / 利率波动 / 套利交易平仓
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/15/iran-war-live-trumps-visit-to-china-shadowed-by-conflict-with-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-permits-30-vessels-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-overnight-lebanon-strikes-israel-top-developments/articleshow/131105399.cms
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515000800315
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260514-kevin-warsh-confirm%C3%A9-%C3%A0-la-t%C3%AAte-de-la-fed
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypj01189lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-xi-promises-not-to-give-iran-arms-trump-says
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPVXJSWmJiMV9CLUM2SURhbHFRVm1DeVE4NjBCY0E5azNhSDNSZXh6RnJORFVNbWpSOUdhdlhVSGNqM0s4a3F6SGFWWkR2aDZRd0ozTXBYYzZYODhVWnNyRGo0c09YTE81OVpUNHQ4cHFNNUFSTkV1ZmJlaGh2MnE3TzZwWlFvX3A1dndjVWNCMEd2YU9lSmV4eTlsSDFIYTcwUm8xOVl2VE9zRTNNTE02RkVzTmlmUlM3bVNQQUlubGFaa0RJc2c?oc=5
- [8] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-the-multinational-military-mission-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-12-may-2026
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/iran-strait-hormuz-china-ships.html
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/as--china-trump-000017487.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260514-trump-xi-d-%C3%A9gal-%C3%A0-%C3%A9gal
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/during-trumps-china-visit-anthropic-just-reminded-america-why-it-should-not-sell-top-end-nvidia-chips-to-china-since-most-/articleshow/131102724.cms
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-tests-post-intervention-low-as-iran-war-us-rate-uncertainty-lift-dollar
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/5/14/aje-onl-chn_trumpvisit2026_av_v2-140526?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-xi-offered-help-to-open-hormuz-vowed-not-to-arm-iran
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPOEZTX2ZkbVUwMGszck1IeUFkSE9VMmh3RXBoRzdjeG9HSTYwdGZidWYyQVlYTDJsTWdXd0xfLTNSdFVOekdwZW5ZZmdBWmlRWkJINTM5MjdUZ19SOGhMSUxHWVRESC1taUVqWDFhZlBnbk1SN0J6aF9UbEJydVVTM3R3bFplS1Nvc0sxMlBvMjQ?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/14/israels-ben-gvir-storms-al-aqsa-during-jerusalem-day-march?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-says-xi-vowed-not-to-arm-iran-offered-help-to-open-hormuz/articleshow/131098611.cms
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPZ3F4RDFfMWRrb1RYQUZiNjRhSk9DZXc3MkFKSjRlck9XamJDYnZFREtrLWdtd21ReW9sckNvWThielVnYnAwbG5HUDlIRDNVRnJWT09zTHg2WDVLQTJxekowMWFSdEhvblluMHdub05CUzkzQnBROTZkZDMxVV9raHgzMWNqRjFCbEhiSC1zSDdkb0paN1paZTV0OFfSAaIBQVVfeXFMUFZ1ZEpKM19xclBhQjVTSmlJVlAyUG14c1ZrY3dVOXlFWWtRYkdxX3BGQlhsUjI0N1pDZUE1QnRGeE43WUthQWkzdExSNkVUakd1dUJ6dndMSGdVV2V3LTBRckx3WERFSHVmbVBGNF90dGE0WWVhU2FrTjdKX0M2S2Q1ZTE0UEVneklPWWZjbUU0eEFvdGNjLTcyZ0NBeWczZzVB?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/china-us-sanctions-ai-cybersecurity.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-uae-iran-attacks.html
2026-05-14
2026-05-14
进展要点
- 美联储沃什任期不确定性，市场关注其首次政策声明及加息路径信号。
- 美国通胀回升可能迫使美联储维持鹰派立场，加息预期升温。
- 中美峰会若达成贸易协议，可能推动部分关税削减，但全面和解仍难。
- 印度提高贵金属进口关税旨在减少贸易逆差及抑制进口需求。
关联路径
美联储主席变更 / 政策不确定性 / 美元 / 美债波动 / 全球资产重定价
中美峰会结果 / 贸易前景 / 风险偏好 / 股市 / 商品
中东冲突升级 / 石油供给风险 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策约束
印度提高黄金关税 / 全球实物黄金需求下降 / 金价承压
来源
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260513-senate-confirms-trump-pick-kevin-warsh-as-federal-reserve-chair
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-ally-kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-next-us-federal-reserve-chair-after-tight-senate-vote/articleshow/131076625.cms
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-confirmed.html
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-presidents-set-to-kick-off-crucial-meeting
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260514000900315
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639955-pentagon-revises-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2gFBVV95cUxPWkJfX2lCWUg1YjR3aktOUUU4ajlIa0xDbGxDMWlJbHh0ZzZjLW9RZUJMcXdNRFlTbEUxZVVWWjNHRHJxNkNFVEhPQmFTeFI3S2QzN3BGdTlPYWkwWW1ZWURuRjg5d2RQTEx0aDY5RG05OGdqTXNqV3ZEZkY1eklEbHJlb2pYTUkxdXp1aDdHQTNub2RBejU1UzF3SUhGSWlqUWR3TkEtWjZaM25vbVd2OWREM0NTeXh3OWlDZ291bWloSWpFN2ExTnRGZWxHZVczV2lMN2pLZW9sQQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8p71p4nezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-holds-decline-jump-us-060857543.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/netanyahu-visited-uae-in-secret-during-us-israel-war-on-iran-office-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-hikes-duty-on-gold-silver-from-6-to-15-in-bid-to-lower-demand/articleshow/131079515.cms
- [12] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260513-%C3%A9tats-unis-s%C3%A9nat-valide-nomination-kevin-warsh-t%C3%AAte-fed-reserve-federale-trump
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/asia/xi-trump-china-us-taiwan-iran.html
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/trade-tech-and-rare-earths-to-dominate-trump-s-china-trip
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/briefing/trump-china-meeting-fed-chair.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/639954-netanyahu-secret-uae-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/639942-saudi-covert-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/13/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-new-us-federal-reserve-chair-amid-controversy?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPZHBka0lybnhwRXkzY1pwOWpFSnN5Njd0RnFpNlg0ZlRYN1lqY3FFZ1dFOXJQUTBKczZITllGdU1TU01iMGNIWnNfYXVBeFVNZnVlaE02Wkd6T2lFTUo2VXBzeDBZVVAxNVZKUC1OZG9LUFVaQmMyR1dhaTMxYi1KZ0owc3JpNkhXYkUyY2xQaUcyNmI5YlU4U3FCVU9aNFk5SzJueFAwd3VNU0xOTmtXWHlNNTdxUW0wMGFtRnBaMmRTc0haakpTd25B?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/trump-xi-summit-chinas-help-in-iran-may-require-us-concessions?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-xi-set-to-talk-trade-after-30-drop-during-tariff-war
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPLXI4dThVYmpObHQwS1B6bk9vNmFEX0dxbldUbWNqYUhxSUJzaTV5LTFvcFJGR1JuUm13dWJUZE0tZHVZOXY4VkMzUjZCNFA4OWx2UERXeldBNXNoWUktWUFLOUdpMzhja3JOZ0hhbVoyTzB0ZmZMQlV3MXBUc1UyUWJSdXN2UlNmRDZDMQ?oc=5
2026-05-13
2026-05-13
进展要点
- 美联储：沃什即将接任主席，市场预期其将坚持鹰派立场，6月议息会议加息概率上升
- 贸易政策：10%全球关税暂时维持，但法律挑战未消，特朗普可能利用访华争取贸易让步
- 财政政策：伊朗战争成本持续累积，国会面临追加拨款压力，可能推升美债供给
- 制裁政策：俄核反应器事件或促使美国加强对俄朝制裁执行
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 通胀上升 / 央行收紧预期 / 风险资产下跌
美伊停火破裂 / 军事升级 / 油价飙升 / 全球衰退担忧 / 避险资产流入
中美峰会结果 / 贸易政策预期 / 风险情绪波动 / 美元 / 新兴市场货币双向波动
俄罗斯核威慑 / 欧洲安全紧张 / 资金流向避险资产 / 黄金 / 美债受益
来源
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.iris-france.org/les-chaines-dapprovisionnement-petrolieres-asiatiques-perturbees-par-le-blocus-du-detroit-dormuz-perspectives-pour-linde-le-japon-et-la-coree-du-sud
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c202pgxx89lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-faces-rising-costs-with-iran-war-driving-energy-prices-inflation-higher?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260513/c04811ca4c6a4d49abe7cdffeca2c363/c.html
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/639918-turning-point-in-post-cold-war-order/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-berufungsgericht-laesst-donald-trumps-zehn-prozent-zoll-vorerst-bestehen-a-0e854705-6afa-4fbb-9f55-dfb8f923ef7f
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260512-iran-us-peace-plan-middle-east-truce-failure
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/briefing/iran-war-costs-inflation.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOVHIyMlF1Rk1fUk9rY3JiNVh0LUVBUlhlX0dtQk5OSjUwcVFPVXJUbWdSRkpwa25iZ1lRSVcxbFNraGM2RWFsdXJJVEhHeTBPU21WckJFOFdSWHVMZ21pdS1Sc1NiWHZ5TXExWnN2Vy16eUVwcUNsdnZpWUtveUg4eVBrMnNBcjg3QU5sbHY1b2tza21pQkg0?oc=5
- [10] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/iran-kharg-island-oil-shipments-174555890.html
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-china-visit-xi-jinping-meeting-us-china-trade-negotiations/article70971552.ece
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260512011352315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-cpi-climbs-38-in-april-as-oil-prices-and-energy-costs-fuel-inflation/article70971393.ece
- [14] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79724
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/7dd5a996fb1a4b938d278e287586e4c7/c.html
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/aa49121bccfb49a08819de9df26fb8d6/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/13/iran-war-live-trump-travels-to-china-as-conflict-with-tehran-looms-large?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-court-pauses-decision-blocking-trumps-10-percent-global-tariff?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260512-iran-tensions-commerciales-ta%C3%AFwan-donald-trump-chine-pour-visite-majeure
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260512-japanese-crisp-bags-turn-black-and-white-due-to-iran-war
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/russland-testet-sarmat-interkontinentalrakete-laut-wladimir-putin-erfolgreich-a-129038fc-f885-400f-a2c4-d08eb689345d
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/trump-xi-summit.html
- [23] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-war-cost-hegseth-congress.html
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/639893-us-iran-could-renew-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObTF3M0FrTkx0dDl4bjA2QzFvZUNQV2JXdWVBNWduSG1nTmVMR2pPdE9wN2F3WnVWaTJtZzd4Nzg1ODN3RmZPSzhjaktQalhUY0l1S2tNSVdlVk5NRzh3M0pvT3Rjbnk3V0h1ZTFYbTdZaHkzakUzVHZfNFkyQWxmTnNSSjZLOHVSYmpCdXRMWGs2eFdTZE5PMmpWX0VsTDN4M0N2ZHZoUkxWd0dPOHc?oc=5
2026-05-12
2026-05-12
进展要点
- 特朗普可能削减联邦燃油税以应对国内油价压力
- 美国司法部请求维持10%全球关税，上诉期间贸易不确定性持续
- 美联储面临能源冲击带来的通胀压力，降息预期推迟
- 欧洲央行或因地缘风险维持紧缩立场
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应骤降 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
中美会晤结果 / 贸易政策走向 / 企业信心与汇率波动
美伊停火破裂 / 中东全面战争 / 避险资金涌入黄金 / 美元
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国能源安全风险 / 人民币贬值压力
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044249qt7
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260511/2f185f2c68764459ad6402eda8c3e354/c.html
- [3] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/12/6a01a4fefdddff9f478b4577.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-ceasefire-on-life-support/live-77126070?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gas-prices-iran-war-midwest-ohio-trump-b2974499.html
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/usa-china-iran-sanktionen-scott-bessent
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/iran-responds-to-us-peace-proposal-to-end-the-war-state-media-says-164241820.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-100.html
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429549
- [10] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-gov-t-asks-court-to-keep-trump-s-10-global-tariffs-in-place-during-appeal/3934366
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260511-xi-jinping-faiseur-de-paix-en-iran
- [12] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-11/trump-el-alto-el-fuego-con-iran-esta-agonizando.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV3Zja29WajNJeTJvT3FaSlZ6ZDZwcXkwakZMZTRHTVg3dEI4WU82UHhOWTkxNzAzc2puQ0dJZEl5XzJfUXdRWlFlai1vanEwUFYzQkdPRmNlUnZXLXBPRFFKUmJRM3dJMVJaZjl4RWk1VzQ1dlRDSXVyOS13ZUxXSUhwZWpaejQzTDlBbGgyOU1uTGd3UlFpMDN3?oc=5
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-congress-iran-petrol-prices-b1281950.html
- [15] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/11/43001
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/11/trump-says-he-will-discuss-arms-sales-to-taiwan-in-meeting-with-chinas-xi?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-sanctions-12-firms-individuals-over-alleged-role-in-iranian-oil-trade/3934363
- [18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-to-travel-to-china-with-17-major-ceos-including-musk-and-cook-white-house/3934290
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-reveals-location-nuclear-armed-171703119.html
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044730SbY
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512042140mfe
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxOdkoyb2dvdHlJdmpIaDc3d0N2U1kxandSSmxCN3c5eWs0UHk1Q3F4YVpLNDhLR1ZJb2s1UG1mS1BFcXJWQmZBSU5WRFRKMlV0ek1qUGt2MDlnOGRrX0lwdW94UjEycHFyMGs3VlVCVElpdHlLU3FWSmh5V09mQkhLZVRtMktEejdSdzk4c0I2MTcyREpCcnJNOXVudUZDREw0TUJmUjFBbE1EYnFMYTVhMTBrOEJKT3ZtOFlxU1lmME5vTUFGVjcwZldZM3BSMDEyNjNpRER1QlFTVDlubUtVSmNxUXhjREFoTUJxWmhhdFE1YzBGRV9zdHY2bEdpZnktVXoyeGxWN2xKSjQwb3hsZDFWMmlwYXVwUjZN?oc=5
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260511-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-exige-la-fin-de-la-guerre-et-le-d%C3%A9gel-des-avoirs-une-r%C3%A9ponse-inacceptable-pour-trump
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE1CR1Nfc2JxRHM4N0NjWVViWXh2czVFblA1akE3dFhjUmctQVlBLUpwSW1KUF9ETUpJV2tlRW4wcDM3RW1VYURWQ2pKWQ?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/11/trump-says-ceasefire-is-on-life-support-after-rejecting-irans-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-new-york-israel-consumers-wall-street-b2974516.html
- [27] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/11/6a02182721efa03c0b8b4577.html
2026-05-11
2026-05-11
进展要点
- 美国联邦政府因现金流恶化被迫增发国债，债市压力或倒逼财政部调整发债节奏
- BIS警告财政政策回应伊朗战争风险可能加剧通胀，各国央行面临两难
- 特朗普访华期间将与习近平讨论伊朗问题，可能施压中国减少进口伊朗石油
- 英国受伊朗战争拖累预计2026年失业16.3万人，欧洲经济衰退风险上升
关联路径
美军封锁伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡梗阻 / 石油供应中断担忧 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期升温
特朗普拒绝伊朗停火 / 避险情绪高涨 / 资金涌入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产抛售
美国增发国债 / 债券供给冲击 / 收益率上行 / 科技股估值承压 / 股市下跌
伊朗战争 / 英国经济衰退信号 / 全球增长担忧 / 风险偏好恶化
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/3960d5d503f7403dae5c143aeff01f80/c.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201355
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618814.shtml
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-government-must-issue-more-223745145.html
- [5] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/10/nx-s1-5817605/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-proposal
- [6] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/britain-job-losses-iran-war-economy-crisis-b2973830.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-05/11/iran-antwortet-auf-us-vorschlag-trump-voellig-inakzeptabel
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/639845-trump-iran-totally-unacceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429515
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/trump-to-discuss-iran-with-xi-jinping-during-china-visit-officials?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-rejects-proposal-to-end-conflict/live-77102104?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051808Mzs
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/fiscal-policy-response-to-iran-war-risks-worsening-inflation-bis-chief
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPS2F2bWQ1UlBLTExBNjRzTEZLN1Jtak40T2hSUmJaaHd0dG9BbEhwNnJLbGptN05Sem5SLVBvbktvZTFfYWotQjZ0WXl3MXcwOU5pZXI2TFZyYXQwdVBaWktHbWt4MktOQ3ZWblc3blItcFlPM1ZNaGdDbk1NT0J2V1huSFhvd3JrTjBqYzRmRFpOYmRlc0RhcnRXMlhmUdIBowFBVV95cUxNbUxZRDk5d2JGaHZwbFlBdTVCWWs2TDcyM3h6b0dKb1hYNTlUUk1QME5sNjl1VFpBbDNUUzdZXzdwVlFJVmZoYjRyaVlvaktVcUFRZTdsQmc3LXFaZXk1MUVPNFBzMGNsWE1XOHdnb2MyWkpHNnRSRnNoTlU0b25IS1Q5Y3EtSWNCZl9sZ2dWSzcxaHJLWTd1NlIyNzFMSlJXa29v?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/war-with-iran-not-over-says-israeli-prime-minister/3933285
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/c636cfac40044e89be902f2b154cf33a/c.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/b44050ab14924c3fa89df06b58ee15c0/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618801.shtml
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/us-awaits-iranian-response-proposal-125003898.html
- [20] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/donald-trump-usa-iran-krieg-antwort-frieden-verhandlungen
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/639844-trump-vows-iran-enriched-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260511051652Xbq
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051343oue
2026-05-10
2026-05-10
进展要点
- 美国等待伊朗对和平提议的回应，若拒绝可能进一步升级军事行动
- 特朗普-习近平北京峰会焦点或包括伊朗、贸易和制裁问题
- 美国国际贸易法院驳回10%全球关税，政府可能上诉或立法替代
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油 / 避险资产 / 全球股市
美国制裁中国公司 / 中美关系紧张 / 贸易协议风险 / 风险偏好
俄乌停火希望 / 风险偏好短暂回升 / 若落空则避险
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东不稳定 / 石油风险溢价
来源
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/g-s1-121061/iran-war-updates
- [2] https://www.tempo.co/internasional/selat-hormuz-memanas-as-iran-saling-serang-lagi-2134463
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/10/iran-war-live-irgc-warns-us-against-attacks-on-ships-israel-bombs-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/u-s-iran-exchange-strikes-as-trump-says-ceasefire-holds-263035973659
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/putin-zaiavyv-shcho-viina-rf-proty-ukrainy-dobihaie-kintsia
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPOFBRV2l2TGJ6d1FsY2doampXNEJyODZFZmp6VDBVNWVYUHdoRDhUMC0ydDBuaU9oZGpITWFUNjZ1TVlUNWQybV85TDlxNXl4aVlwZVViZmdRVV9wNzB2NkhPUUdpdjMxTnVXT01KWmRHZFJtNkY3d2dTMl8zdWdXb0M0X2l2c1R4VDdNeFB3?oc=5
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-he-thinks-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end/a-77106772?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-assured-netanyahu-of-no-compromise-on-iran-uranium-issue-israeli-media/3932758
- [9] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/09/state-escalates-trade-row-with-china-over-iran-war-ahead-of-trump-xi-summit-00913421?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [10] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79718
- [11] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260508000500880
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/putin-says-ukraine-war-likely-to-end-soon-despite-ukrainian-battlefield-gains-13542111
- [13] https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica-estera/ucraina-putin-guerra-volge-termine-pronti-dialogo-ue-2662158.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/wladimir-putin-krieg-ukraine-pressekonferenz-ende-wolodymyr-selenskyj
- [15] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/09/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-assure-que-le-conflit-touche-a-sa-fin-kiev-et-moscou-s-accusent-de-violer-le-cessez-le-feu_6684995_3210.html
- [16] https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/heftige-iran-drohung-hormus-schliessung-fuer-immer-69ff7fcbcd4a28c4700221b3
- [17] https://geopoliticalfutures.com/what-the-uaes-opec-exit-means-for-the-global-energy-market
- [18] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-forces-strike-iran-oil-tankers-while-waiting-tehran-peace-proposal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQVThGa0pUTkZBT2YzS3I2U29RT1MwNGdCNmdUSXdLY19ObVVSVVNkNmxWZ1k2RjNzQ09PYkhwVEl6dmlmQlpxcTVMX21WYktZdHNNUE04TTBTOUMzZjZWRHJkcC1pVUEtR0tEaUVaODVTc0JTMGV0MlVZSl9YSjF6NGFBLUFMYk5Udm5IUDdLbEE4M3pkeW1aRldLT25Xei1MTmZRWkl6TG1SQjJKVzg4YzB3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-and-iran-exchange-fire-as-trump-says-ceasefire-still-holds-263025733567
- [21] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5814955/rep-adam-smith-d-wash-on-the-latest-round-of-strikes-between-the-u-s-and-iran
- [22] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5815016/u-s-and-iran-trade-fire-amid-month-old-ceasefire
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/9/for-the-first-time-putin-says-hes-open-to-meeting-zelensky-outside-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-09
2026-05-09
进展要点
- 美联储面临就业稳健但通胀风险上升的两难，6月或维持利率不变
- 白宫可能加大伊朗制裁，但战争扩大风险限制行动空间
- 俄乌停火为外交窗口，但实质性进展有限，后续关注换俘执行
- 德国将被迫加强防务自主，可能增加国防开支并调整对美关系
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 全球通胀 / 央行政策收紧预期
俄乌停火 / 避险情绪缓和 / 风险资产短暂反弹
美国就业超预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场压力
美德关系恶化 / 北约不确定性 / 欧洲避险资金流入美元 / 黄金
来源
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260509/us-fires-on-2-more-iranian-tankers-as-tensions-rise-in-strait-of-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/8/pentagon-releases-video-of-strikes-on-iranian-oil-tankers?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617849.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQVWVDc01rQW5teU9vRkZ6eGY5TkkwT2tWekM0VVBrRjFHMVZjNGhDRUI3ZEhqdy1MamR2QVhWODlMTHNuQUhVbkViWUpIdmcySEJlcU9WdVpvU1VJSmRabXBhckhnUHJyb29jMXZHTkRoUF9mUjJXZVdMMFpFM0k2bmRENGc5ZzNFNTN1SGhlVFdQYjFvdldIQkk5S1VnTGlzQUhrMV9abw?oc=5
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ceo-maersk-ships-14-everything-170854545.html
- [7] https://news.sky.com/story/three-day-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-announced-13541685
- [8] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8481206/trump-umumkan-rusia-dan-ukraina-sepakat-gencatan-senjata-3-hari
- [9] https://metro.co.uk/2026/05/08/donald-trump-announces-three-day-ceasefire-russia-ukraine-28292148
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/639696-trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4121333-trump-says-threeday-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-agreed.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-announces-3-day-ceasefire-between-ukraine-and-russia/live-77091251?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/ukraine-krieg/artikel/ukraine-krieg-trump-verkuendet-waffenruhe-so-lange-ist-geplant-48342649
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86dp85g59xo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/9/iran-war-live-tehrans-reply-to-us-deal-expected-amid-clashes-in-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617843.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617837.shtml
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/la-guerra-se-asoma-a-un-nuevo-vencimiento-pendiente-del-acuerdo-entre-estados-unidos-e-iran.html
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-08/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE0zQmxqdHQ0cTdBOHJtcEx1ajdXR0RhRkthS0tvOS0wM2IwMzUtdk1vUVB4VFBabXNySUdaX19OaV8zME56SmhOQ1BIZTZad0pfdTJBSWlPVDlzeUU2RHpvS24tLWN5emhXWE1ReFItUDI?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/libyas-largest-oil-refinery-halts-operations-during-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/jobs-report-set-show-hiring-090728306.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/639659-trump-punish-germany-appeasement/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-08
2026-05-08
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策：法院裁定10%关税违法后，特朗普可能上诉或转向其他法律工具。
- 中东政策：美伊军事冲突使停火谈判陷入停滞，美国或加大制裁与军事施压，伊朗则可能加速核计划作为杠杆。
- 欧洲动向：英法联合提出霍尔木兹战后安全通行方案，显示欧洲准备在冲突后介入航道安全。
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难
关税违法 / 贸易不确定性下降 / 企业信心恢复 / 经济衰退预期缓解
军事冲突 / 避险情绪 / 黄金 / 美元走强 / 风险资产抛售
欧洲航母部署 / 多国介入风险 / 地缘联动 / 资产波动率上升
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-usa-und-iran-beschiessen-sich-in-strasse-von-hormus-a-b0cb0e94-a59e-49b0-b574-af358c0ab39d
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617187.shtml
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508065335EuD
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBwQnR2X3ZtNDFrbkQwTTRjcnJtVW8zc2pMTXJxLTFZUDBDOTRGaXhueVVLekZaSVdpNGl3MkpqT29EekY2ejFXSU9PdkpNR1ZNamdBakI4ZUZob253YlIwanVpUndGQ1lETktXLVZtWV8tc1Q2VnVR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-it-struck-targets-in-iran-after-attack-on-warships/live-77088159?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260507-middle-east-war-live-us-and-iran-accuse-each-other-of-ceasefire-violations-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5559083/selat-hormuz-memanas-iran-as-saling-serang-lagi
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/well-knock-them-out-harder-trump-warns-iran-of-harsher-military-action-after-3-us-ships-came-under-fire-in-hormuz/articleshow/130933318.cms
- [9] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201309
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-trade-fire-west-asia-war-strait-of-hormuz/article70952891.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/briefing/trade-court-trump-tariffs.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-says-targeted-iranian-military-214422794.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/7/videos-show-interceptions-over-the-skies-of-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617182.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508090836LPE
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508091222lYj
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617209.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9saEpROVFUXzB4QzBtT1Z2ZWlmODQydTdKdG9aRXFPb1BjQWV0LTFNdjAyZGlrTlVMX3Z4NmZTa2VGX0x1WlRrLWZyNUtRUlkwMTdVenNBTFcxR3I1MS1sYmxHRHFKMWtveVFXVUU5bEpOclhhcUl3OFRXVlJ2b1U?oc=5
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/economy/trump-global-tariff-ruled-illegal.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE95RHFJYjM2ZkFnRXRTMlVqSmFob0NKdld0Z0ZwMWVhU0FZYmN2VVZtNmZiaEJCTjAxRTg3X2pSMEJqT1VwTWhjam93eGFEdXktM1VJWA?oc=5
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20260507-strait-of-hormuz-what-role-for-france
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/big-setback-for-trump-us-court-rules-10-global-tariffs-unlawful/articleshow/130930650.cms
2026-05-07
2026-05-07
进展要点
- 特朗普政府采取“军事施压+外交谈判”双轨策略，访华前达成协议是优先目标。
- 伊朗正在审议美方提议，但铀浓缩暂停期限等核心分歧仍存（Yonhap News TV）。
- 俄罗斯通过外交警告升级对乌克兰施压，可能为胜利日攻势铺垫。
关联路径
美伊协议进展 / 油价风险溢价下降 / 全球通胀预期缓和 / 股债双升
俄乌胜利日升级 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强 / 新兴市场资金外流
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东风险溢价上升 / 油价反弹 / 全球增长担忧
油轮袭击事件 / 航运保险成本上升 / 贸易中断风险增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639549-us-iran-tanker-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507090601M8I
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201283
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260506-russia-warns-foreign-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-of-strike
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-fires-on-iranian-oil-tanker-as-trump-pressures-tehran-for-deal-to-end-war/article70948554.ece
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42967
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-07/10616597.shtml
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/angriffskrieg-in-der-ukraine-russland-dringt-auf-evakuierung-auslaendischer-botschaften-in-kyjiw-a-ab69353b-9c0f-4df2-9d63-32d768005654
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYy05cU1rcVk3aXlCRFNmNTJ3WEhSalR4dkk5MC1YNl9WWG1XaG9QVWNLQUhoZGRvaDA3cmRNSkdtZDI5dkI3aERJbmRBd01FWFlsOFBCYTQ4OEQxM3RrNU1HNXhqZ1dWZkQxZkxXTng2N3ZWdk1NaXJsNVpwMEtqb1NySUVXbjk5ZDZLS1ptdk1fVGdqMVdCckNOdW43Rnc?oc=5
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/russia-tells-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-moscow-launches-mass-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/could-ceasefire-ceased-iran-back-212505667.html
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260506014152315
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/business/french-ship-hormuz-central-command.html
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/iran-hit-more-us-defence-assets-than-reported-satellite-images-show/articleshow/130869021.cms
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/israel-strikes-beirut-for-first-time-since-lebanon-ceasefire/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082751XF8
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082829agH
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42966
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/trump-says-had-very-good-talks-with-iran-as-tehran-reviews-us-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/6/israel-bombs-beiruts-southern-suburbs-2?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-trump-sieht-einigung-nahe-iran-prueft-moegliches-abkommen-a-19ef1840-45d3-432c-9c43-33fb235eb608
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-bombardiert-erstmals-seit-waffenruhe-beiruter-vorort-a-bf8e6513-5e0b-4e43-8d07-5167be697fef
2026-05-06
2026-05-06
进展要点
- 特朗普暂停护航行动以等待协议，但维持对伊朗港口封锁，政策处于观望模式。
- 美国国务卿鲁比奥称进攻阶段结束，后续以防御性封锁为主。
- 伊朗通过新规强化对海峡的主权控制，可能成为谈判筹码。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应短缺预期 / 通胀风险 / 央行加息预期
特朗普暂停行动 / 短期风险偏好回升 / 股市反弹、油价回调
伊朗新规 / 实际通行受阻 / 石油实物短缺 / 油价上行
美欧贸易摩擦 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strait-hormuz-showdown-begins-u-132901358.html
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639461-global-oil-shortages-chevron/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/trump-announces-pause-on-us-operation-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260505-en-direct-donald-trump-suspendre-operation-americaine-pour-escorter-bateaux-detroit-ormuz-moyen-orient-etats-unis-liban-golfe
- [5] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1063473/iran-perkenalkan-aturan-baru-untuk-transit-kapal-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-donald-trump-setzt-militaer-einsatz-fuer-sichere-hormus-durchfahrt-aus-a-09110b24-5de9-4643-9a3d-c701250ab14f
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506083448XBA
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-operation-epic-fury-is-over-rubio-says/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616011.shtml
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypekl71gdo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOZVNNNFNuaGY3ekVlTlJra3NuT3ItcGJycnBFSF9YSHpqSzFxR3YtYjVJQjRQbl8zSTNOOWRHRkVvQ1o0ZWQ1bjMyUkk5bXRIOF94RkNTYms2cjZsNEpIc010TzJKUHF6WXVmU0FtaUs1eERwUGxJZWNESVRiOWlORVc4UUdnR2VGb3dacFVHS2NhQWhjcjl4TWpiSU4xZVpId01HVXJoeUJiVWtnZjF3V1ljUG9GX19ib3hSVzZ2bW9lZw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/639502-trump-hormuz-freedom-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616009.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080836FnL
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080338M8a
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616006.shtml
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260505-rubio-says-us-military-has-completed-offensive-operations-in-iran
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506075816iRz
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506074057CUb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506080056tMp
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616004.shtml
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616001.shtml
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072847kWz
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR2026050607171320H
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072539XhY
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050606515869I
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506065121a7o
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506063848him
2026-05-05
2026-05-05
进展要点
- 美国维持军事与制裁并重：通过“解放计划”护航并制裁伊朗石油买家。
- 特朗普将对欧汽车关税作为贸易谈判杠杆，特恩伯里协议可能被修改或废除。
- 美中在伊朗石油问题上对峙升级，中方可能以稀土或科技管制反制。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 风险资产抛售
伊朗攻击阿联酋 / 地区安全恶化 / 避险买盘 / 美元 / 黄金上涨
特朗普对欧关税威胁 / 欧盟出口前景恶化 / 欧元贬值 / 欧洲股市下跌
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国进口受阻 / 全球石油市场收紧 / 油价上行
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-us-and-uae-report-iran-attacks-as-military-pushes-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605050807137ro
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/uae-reports-missile-and-drone-strikes-incoming-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNOF9BY1FLenNuX1FCU2VTTmk0SmxDN0FqVHRFa3Nua0t6R0VBOVJBYy1xdXhsUmtzNHhqZjVMdGhPYjJobndNOWR3bFhib3VrWnJlM1BnbUxtNnJqZjFFOHlXMDRJM3p0YUl4TENJcUgzWFZRcUNZQTlBQnJrUlBrMXhJVi1pOEQ1WGNTTGpKT005WmMzUW9FbTVBYUPSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0szZUswSjRJZ0h2dUNGbm1USmdPSEZIUGszMVpsbktkaHJaZ1RoTXI5ZnlqdXhWNEpRMXY5MkxtcHRkSDNHWG8yVDJXSFNROXV0YkFscWRPdUVxcHI1cmtWN1lYSnlJX1dNQlU2QVhrbHZienBtVnFPVmtocXE5M2VkcnNRTHZvZ2NBdVI0WnVROG9TZ3Zxcmk3dlRwVFhMWWd3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/04/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-affirme-avoir-tire-des-missiles-contre-des-navires-militaires-americains-deux-navires-marchands-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz-selon-l-armee-americaine_6684072_3210.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639450-iran-us-sink-boats-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/briefing/iran-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-met-gala.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615670.shtml
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-attackiert-vereinigte-arabische-emirate-donald-trump-meldet-versenkte-iranische-boote-a-5d2d79be-0aff-43ee-a854-66f73a0e8663
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/5/iran-war-live-washington-tehran-trade-threats-over-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-en-direct-accrochages-detroit-ormuz-operation-americaine-d%C3%A9bloquer-iran-pays-golfe-liban-etats-unis-israel-missiles-drones-conseil-securite-onu
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083539uN2
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083557sW4
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPd2plZWlfWWZRNHZINm9SUVZLZnNucE1mWERKX3FMSWVzeWNSMkg0WXRTdndGQUZsSHVJcW8tLWI3NWM5V1o5NGRsTWxLdDFNazU4T0xNcndKT09pVXZ3eEo5VDRQSEZ2TTVDMjNhMGE0Vld1cHMyWGZsYk93bzNwSmw4M2pQOXp5clhzRjNPWlM?oc=5
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-amirats-arabes-unis-nouveau-vises-par-iran-au-lancement-operation-americaine-detroit-ormuz-drones-attaque-pays-golfe
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615663.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615660.shtml
- [18] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/05/04/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-donald-trump-contre-l-industrie-automobile-europeenne-fragilisent-encore-l-accord-de-turnberry_6685398_3234.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/05/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-emirats-arabes-unis-disent-avoir-intercepte-15-missiles-iraniens-et-4-drones-dans-la-journee_6684072_3210.html
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/639438-us-destroy-iran-future-analyst/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/hormuz-tensions-push-ceasefire-to-the-brink-as-trump-threatens-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/us/politics/us-china-iranian-oil-sanctions.html
2026-05-04
2026-05-04
进展要点
- 美国将单方面推进霍尔木兹海峡护航，可能绕过联合国授权，面临国际法争议。
- 伊朗可能以封锁海峡或袭击美军舰艇作为回应，停火协议面临崩溃。
- OPEC+增产旨在平抑油价，但内部裂痕可能削弱其调节能力。
- 美国对俄能源制裁可能因乌克兰袭击而进一步收紧，影子舰队成为打击目标。
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧
北约分裂 / 欧洲安全风险 / 资本流入美元 / 黄金 / 美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 油价承压 / 缓解通胀 / 风险偏好改善
乌克兰袭击 / 俄油出口下降 / 全球重油供应偏紧
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504090940oLO
- [2] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504001500315
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-announces-project-freedom-to-help-stranded-ships-leave-strait-of-hormuz/article70936417.ece
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQSVJPVVBjX2Z5alZfTHlJaDBrN0d0aS1WeWVJWlkwQ19kNTRKQldNOVJNaDJzbmtIcjdBd25mOXIyVjdJR0lHeHJtN1htUmxVQXItNUFsTllPbm8teG1oeS01WkxPTGlGOHRPa202RU9tbThkN0tRN2NZQnU2SWNHZHgwQXkyTk5kSmFlVVBwVdIBlAFBVV95cUxPSmJUYzNHM3lybFJuV2NYYjl5NWhGbkdrLWZQTEx4VWtxYmN5SzR0MEVEOTBZcFVEeEItcDZqeTJLdVJFZXQ5eUdoeGdaaUYyR3pqRHRfbWU5cHlVU0lZaDdoNkllY1ZzelBKV2IwX3djLWZJSl93S1RkVzdUd3Bta240RzVDQzNaeUFtZjh4OUlNYWxq?oc=5
- [5] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Militaer-will-festsitzende-Schiffe-aus-Strasse-von-Hormus-geleiten-id30781595.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260503-en-direct-guerre-iran-marine-americaine-va-escorter-navires-bloques-detroit-ormuz-donald-trump-cessez-feu-liban-israel
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/politics/strait-hormuz-stranded-ships.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615312.shtml
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-to-guide-ships-safely-out-of-hormuz/live-77021634?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/03/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-annonce-que-la-marine-americaine-va-escorter-des-navires-bloques-a-travers-le-detroit-d-ormuz-a-partir-de-lundi_6684072_3210.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504062226PpA
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-trump-plant-einsatz-unter-codenamen-project-freedom-a-9c929e2e-ab18-434a-9f78-bc00c6194ee2
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/3/iran-lawmaker-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-return-to-pre%e2%80%91war-state?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukraine-hits-key-russian-oil-092405352.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/639394-nato-rift-widens-as-trump-eyes-troop-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://globalnews.ca/news/11827950/iran-war-trump-reviews-proposal
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260504090443Eyo
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504085951Lh9
- [19] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504000500320
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxObUh2emxTZXgta2JVZzZkUXVmNURoTGM3ejQ0aHBaMUk5WEE4dzJjOXR3UjdtQ0FCNmNtZFJ4NjhGdlFScGdWVjRfeUhpNS1JN3dBNW5PY25rMS1BQUVXVmx4b2NLSVFVU0hyYy0weVZYY1YyY2VVSHdIZGlhOV9CNGNyQm4?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/trump-says-us-will-help-free-up-ships-stuck-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQOGJzdEItUzB5NWhkTDhrZHFmcG5VVVNlOFJycUl5UUp0cVF4UXRNdjQ0R2FxWmE3aVRKZ1U4VVdvWFIzWl9xdlRGSzlZWjI2S1JjTXZaTlRwSWZDcjdGX0RiUkVFUzE3UF9BX2k3VFBhc3lfdW43aTRYUnRuaU9rcGF0RFNJOWVNYjUzS2dVbTdNQdIBlwFBVV95cUxPT1dHdGRoYzVMVjNEWENQb2s0QXZjZFNEeDUzQkhNVnJUeVdsaUxmX3c5aWF5eGt1RFJXMUhLRGFXa2xoMDJCbHRGU1NENnQzRUN4eFliWXZmZVliVFF4RVNMX2hfajE2M2tnOFpSMjVPbFh5c2Vxb1haM1kxMHFzNFk0ZHFIWEdCbk90Q0FIU2tSUG4tTGNj?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/investigators-say-trump-assassination-suspect-shot-officer-at-press-gala?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615308.shtml
2026-05-03
2026-05-03
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策：极限施压+军事威胁，短期内无缓和迹象。
- 美国对欧洲：削减驻军、加征汽车关税，跨大西洋关系紧张。
- 美国对华：制裁伊朗原油进口网络，中方面临反制压力。
- 日本货币政策：干预汇市力度加大，但治标不治本。
关联路径
美伊谈判破裂 / 军事威胁 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险情绪恶化
科威特出口归零+伊朗减产 / 供应缺口 / 能源成本推升通胀 / 央行政策两难
中美制裁升级 / 贸易战蔓延 / 供应链重构 / 全球贸易萎缩
日元干预 / 非美货币波动 / 套利交易平仓 / 新兴市场资金外流
来源
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-un-oeil-sur-le-monde-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439438.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260503085353W9D
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/not-yet-paid-a-big-enough-price-donald-trump-sceptical-as-iran-submits-14-point-plan-to-end-war/articleshow/130726204.cms
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-usa-iran-war-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz/article70933317.ece
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/3/iran-war-live-trump-says-reviewing-14-point-plan-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-03/10614972.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxPSGJjck82amFhWlA2S0IwcDhxMExFRS04WGVfRUJUNHpUMDBkcGF1YzlZc0hzcm5DRl95WmpNamkzTVF2TGFBY01mQWRzTDFoY1JtOFlYMV9EaFZNVWJiRUFGdXhoSHEtZzNGd2VYWTc3Sk9WOExFdUZsa1hOTHZJdXpfZkN0TmU5cm16R0RPZGFqR1JsaEFGcjVR0gGfAUFVX3lxTE43empuR1NlMGN4UG4xQmMtNHdfSTdWdlMtbzdvV0VqbG9GTHlBakpWRFMzWVV1ak5rOW90WDNKT3p3MlNMMjR4Xzh2TUZFWDZ2blJfUFRBdDlQVmRONDI0Rk5qTzMtQ3FJenk2TDVXbmctN0hFUGE1YzExQ2l1TzQ1MVhTNnM2Mkg5end0SXhNVE5NOUNXbUZaVVJtV1E4VQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260502-senior-iranian-officer-says-renewed-war-with-us-likely
- [9] https://www.irna.ir/news/86143782/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinion/columns/shankkar-aiyar/2026/May/02/trumps-war-sends-prices-up-rupee-down-and-budgets-into-a-spin
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinas-commerce-ministry-blocks-us-122430312.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-dubai-emirate-oeffnen-nach-waffenruhe-ihren-luftraum-schrittweise-a-b453de7b-bb9d-46de-a75c-63a90bacd806
- [13] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-says-it-redirected-48th-vessel-from-iranian-ports/3925070
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/news/on-sindoor-eve-army-releases-list-satellite-images-of-7-pakistan-terror-camps-destroyed-rajnath-commends-valour-of-soldiers/articleshow/130726143.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260503084648QDd
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050308551598f
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/spirit-airlines-collapses-amid-rising-fuel-costs-from-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/japan-likely-spent-34-5-091653225.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/syria-becomes-alternative-energy-corridor-for-oil-as-hormuz-effectively-blo?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-lci-direct-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439398.html
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-le-prix-des-carburants-provoque-la-col%C3%A8re-des-am%C3%A9ricains-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-toujours-bloqu%C3%A9
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-la-guerre-de-donald-trump-en-iran-a-t-il-renforc%C3%A9-le-r%C3%A9gime-des-mollahs
- [23] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-drafts-plan-to-regulate-strait-of-hormuz-transit-deputy-parliament-speaker/3925209
- [24] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-strikes-damaged-16-us-military-sites-in-middle-east-report-claims/3925162
2026-05-02
2026-05-02
进展要点
- 特朗普利用《战争权力法》60天期限已满，声称敌对行动结束以规避国会授权，但实际军事行动可能继续
- 欧盟可能迅速出台报复性关税清单，涉及美国牛肉、飞机等商品
- 英国央行警告伊朗战争推高能源账单和抵押贷款利率，货币政策面临两难
关联路径
汽车关税 / 美欧贸易战 / 全球增长预期下修 / 风险资产下跌
美伊谈判僵局 / 军事打击风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
伊朗袭击美军基地 / 地缘溢价上升 / 黄金避险买盘
战争支出扩大 / 美国财政赤字 / 长期利率担忧
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260502000253315
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/1/trump-announces-25-percent-tariffs-on-european-union-cars-trucks?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260501-trump-va-relever-les-droits-de-douane-%C3%A0-25-sur-les-v%C3%A9hicules-europ%C3%A9ens-d%C3%A8s-la-semaine-prochaine
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502015724pi5
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/d14d22e17e844cffb2a706d522068854/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPRWhEcG1UbEtCVld6T1lkcWZ0NjVLdHducUxSWlV2Wmo2eEJKaGo1b0hkLTJWb2NPMVd3NGszUXJ4MTI3UjhtcGh4TTdqZXMxQlk2SUQ0TjRlQ1REbnZ6RFJOMXBTUHM2MWs0RTNoNGJ1aFVsSFJhbVlSaDZjUkpaOUFjNjN5NmJZejRrbUx6SQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg4pqe1zzgqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.sky.com/story/eu-hits-back-at-8216unacceptable8217-donald-trump-over-plans-to-increase-tariffs-13539002
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trump-neue-autozoelle-treffen-europa-und-einen-deutschen-konzern-hart-a-be3f04b9-0109-4076-afab-218a01bd4c1c
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-to-raise-tariffs-on-cars-trucks-from-eu-to-25/a-77014772?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/1b9232412f534545a7ff8bef8edb07e5/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/1/trump-considering-option-to-blast-the-hell-out-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260501-n%C3%A9gociations-iran-etats-unis-dans-l-impasse-frappes-sur-le-liban-offensive-djihadiste-au-mali
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-donald-trump-will-kongress-nicht-um-erlaubnis-fuer-krieg-bitten-a-25a2ffb1-5728-420c-94da-f7af7f767942
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502044340Ob9
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz7l5v03po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOTXlxd1U3RE5OempqQ25NOHczbnkxc3FOSTRmMWU4RnN5WW1LZ3ZUUVhvYkU2cGg1RTNfVkJwMTlRaU5YdzhlQUdBVzkteWhVanRubkpnYnRTazBRdU4wX1ZPX1hKWnp3cjc0VHJiMFNqWDJObUdKblB4eTI0ZlQxT0oyclY1YkpvMEViOHpobWM0SmM5VFhZQldySUtJb19TT2JyeVhmVzB0RllKaWtGWGJDMGVuUQ?oc=5
2026-05-01
2026-05-01
进展要点
- 美国对伊政策：特朗普拒绝伊朗提议，坚持先核协议后解除封锁，中央司令部已准备军事选项。
- 美联储维持利率不变，但内部对宽松偏向的分歧可能限制未来降息空间，关注5月会议纪要。
- 日本财务省可能继续干预日元，但效果短暂，需关注美日财长协调动向。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升 / 央行政策两难
美伊军事对抗 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产（美元、黄金）流入 / 风险资产抛售
阿联酋退出OPEC+ / OPEC+控制力削弱 / 油价波动率上升 / 产油国财政和地缘博弈
日本外汇干预 / 日元短期升值 / 套息交易平仓 / 亚洲汇市连锁反应
来源
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/04/30/42914
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260501090925pcX
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260430-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-prix-du-p%C3%A9trole-au-plus-haut-depuis-2022
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-launches-fx-intervention-briefly-pushing-yen-to-155-from-160
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/1/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-ports-siege-intolerable-trump-mulls-action?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/a88369f137c10336.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-01/10614135.shtml
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/gulf-within-on-the-uae-leaving-opec/article70925606.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-103203927.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE9hTWF6eEpfcXlEcnlrNEZENTVLMEo5VzI1ajl0QUgtc0hjZF9ZVHE5b1FBaENzTkttSHpTUThnNEFReG9zVzJLenhEZFZVRnd1djVQWmRB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-strait-hormuz.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/639306-uae-opec-power-play/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/7ee2fe1fc9621f70.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/us-gas-reaches-4-30-per-gallon-trump-says-prices-will-drop-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260430-mojtaba-khamenei-d%C3%A9fie-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-le-cours-du-p%C3%A9trole-reste-volatile
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNbHEzUkJqd3VxMWZrZVlWNGpTUlE4ak4wbjlSeDAtS2pELUUwWWtyMVpfQWJNVnRybDFJajU1ZVIyQUVQN0ZzR3hkb2hCOHNfdjdXd0hrd19MMWhMd3pQQUZPbHk3ZUR2Q1BYZzZtTWoyWHFKN0g2V2pNbXV4eUZRZEtZb0dLOWtjWHI4cEpobXUxemVZcHpnLUI2dXg2TW05b3NmeFd30gGrAUFVX3lxTFBLNW5ZVG5TU0l0ZjhuWVVCMmMzRzU3NG1wLUJadE95cmdabkQyakhPMlh2bzRGLTBkSVczVWR1MVJpTndlTGdJajJ0VGJPd2ROal9qNXFhMEhFanB2dmhZS1otdnotU3c2YnRuRmppU2x1S0hLRTlzMUZxUXJJbUp4anJub1YwNHczNnVNZ1hwTi1tclNsLVhmMlBMWWQtRENJSHhJTDhneUkwVQ?
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trump-china-iran.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/639308-pentagon-underreporting-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-30
2026-04-30
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率不变，高能源价格或使降息窗口推迟，市场焦点转向鲍威尔是否留任以及特朗普可能施压。
- 美国对伊朗长期海上封锁政策明确，短期无缓和信号，能源市场继续承压。
- 中国对欧盟“欧洲制造”法案的强硬立场可能引发报复性贸易措施，关注5月动态。
- 阿联酋退出OPEC后，OPEC+能否维持减产协议存疑，沙特可能增产以抢占份额。
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 全球避险
特朗普延长封锁+阿联酋退出OPEC / 供给不确定性增大 / 原油波动率飙升 / 能源股与航空股分化
中国施压欧盟 / 中欧贸易摩擦升级 / 欧元 / 人民币汇率波动 / 全球贸易链成本上升
鲍威尔留任+独立性争议 / 美联储政策路径不确定性 / 美债收益率曲线陡化 / 银行股与科技股估值压力
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260430062349378
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639259-iran-war-60-days/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/iran-krieg-brent-oelpreis-schiesst-nach-drohungen-von-donald-trump-in-die-hoehe-a-c6abe27e-8f4f-4aea-b3d3-03577bd2bcce
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-powell-to-stay-on-after-chair-term/article70922354.ece
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613439.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQOWMyU0ZNQ0M1YklBdzNpTmFlc0xyRGh5MllkbUtGRUMwS0FyaVlJVlh4c3JXNjlDVWpQSTdfOTVROXl3WHBOV3MteFBlZ1ZxZTdFYmVQMzJpLXpocklLUm9nYTRHa3pEbzZxYlN5M1duUktiOXY3dVc4RU9yNXlneWNsOW9qaFd3TlZDV1RrVXY4clpVY1pJazdfbTZ3bk5oWXAwZDJaRklSeGNnZ3diU3ppUkZCcTBUNXc?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/29/uae-quits-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rm4zk3kgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260430/b6793c9c730a4df7b1476b9cadc8dde6/c.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4118026-putin-announces-his-readiness-to-declare-ceasefire-on-may-9.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430090250cDZ
- [12] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-keeps-iran-blockade-trump-links-move-to-nuclear-deal-as-oil-nears-120/article70922353.ece
- [13] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/fed-chef-jerome-powell-er-bleibt-a-1f5db838-3887-49a4-8788-36fcaef16b6d
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613435.shtml
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/29/why-is-the-uae-quitting-opec-and-whats-the-impact?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300833473Qc
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080150X59
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080002e2g
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300732533nE
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430072101IHb
2026-04-29
2026-04-29
进展要点
- 美国财政部禁止支付霍尔木兹通行费，扩大制裁，意在切断伊朗收入但可能引发伊朗更强硬反应。
- 欧盟及德国呼吁联合国安理会介入霍尔木兹危机，但短期内难以达成共识。
- 中国外交部已就制裁中企事件表态维权，中美在能源与制裁领域博弈加剧。
关联路径
阿联酋退出OPEC / OPEC解体风险 / 各国增产竞争 / 油价长期走势不确定性
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
美伊僵局持续 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）上涨
世界银行能源价格预测 / 市场对央行政策预期调整 / 风险资产波动加大
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-in-blow-to-oil-cartel-amid-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/uae-quits-opec-in-shock-move-amid-energy-turmoil/a-76968579?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260429/6223708a8ab742bd9add51e81cfb276e/c.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/uae-opec.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612580.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260428/42f598d771584143a69a6d3205fd0d71/c.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260428-iran-talks-stall-amid-hormuz-tensions-and-ceasefire-violations-in-lebanon
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429080038Urk
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR0Nyd3lpa3Q5SDNRVlNYbG1nUXQwUkU5WlY5SGFrQmROTFZXWGhYRnNBR2JHTDdZMmdBb2REc29FaGdVWTlCa28yMEttd3RKaGZINVk4NHBDakF6amc0d0pFeDA5Vk8tS0RGOVdmc245TlRxUjJNdlJTRHZES2wzU0NtRnZMT0FI?oc=5
- [10] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/639229-uae-opec-cartel-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-104929175.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-and-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260428/f7281943198e487ea398f92dbf47fb08/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429073257Z46
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260428-uae-opec-departure-a-manifestation-of-dissatisfaction-vis-%C3%A0-vis-saudi-arabia-expert-says
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTE94dUdMcUxFZlZPcVJtX3N5UWJzQmhfRDBPUktSZkZndkppelJhWHQxeGk5QWwwX2pqWTV3aWdka2U2MGpITWpSckVZS3RhRHJ4TlN0ZFN4WXFqdi1HMG1OdU5xTThiNUxLLWpXd1pJRnREZw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/united-arab-emirates-leaves-opec.html
2026-04-28
2026-04-28
进展要点
- 美国国内：特朗普遇刺指控可能加剧政治分裂，但短期内或强化对现任总统的同情支撑。
- 美伊谈判：特朗普评估和平计划，但美方立场强硬，谈判进展缓慢。
- 联合国：安理会讨论霍尔木兹海峡问题，德国呼吁集体行动。
- 欧盟：推动“欧洲制造”本地化，可能触发与中国贸易报复。
关联路径
特朗普遇刺未遂 / 政治不确定性 / 避险需求 / 美元 / 黄金升，股市跌
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 油价涨 / 通胀预期升 / 风险资产承压
美伊谈判进展 / 供给风险下降 / 风险偏好回升（受限）
中欧贸易摩擦 / 关税 / 非关税壁垒 / 全球贸易放缓 / 相关货币 / 股票受挫
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/politics/trump-assassination-attempt-cole-allen-charges.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/28/iran-war-live-trump-reviews-peace-plan-un-calls-for-hormuz-to-reopen?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083338GrV
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612004.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPd2Q4RjJxWldmdnJEOHNpNG0yeUJDR3hDVFBoanBrZHVuTFJoSGw3MnN6QllNTVI4dC1LMUsyYWNwMlhkT1RfN3QxanZXYU5QVFZvaklBN3ZVOS1fMHFNVVBPS3pSTTNCS1RiLWhTNm12TTdTRjRnemt0SXA4aXpZSmNDajZOYkFudlB2cEV3?oc=5
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260427-suspect-in-press-gala-shooting-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/man-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump-in-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting/article70913760.ece
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting-suspect-arraigned-monday/story?id=132410865
- [10] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-04/usa-korrespondentendinner-donald-trump-attentat-anklage
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5544797/as-tolak-iran-kuasai-selat-hormuz
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083424bVv
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_AFBVV95cUxPX0xJcUFkRWhScGRqdXdFNV94ZUYyb0JWOHdiRkdiakFSWFRGd2dqZ2tnSXladUpFcklMZkJUVDltX0JvZFkxaDVLV2JPV1lmS0VPVHV3MDJZR05Dc3N0TGVrYUkwU0FHeGhiTmZITnV5cUVpanlwbVVyZWFCbm1hS3BWQUZ5Tk5xRzhTTV94SEcxbVU3ZWJtUnJRNmh6ZkZRUC0zTTBwdG85SHBDUVNXNDl1bDlDZkZLU1N3NFZwRjY4VHNiUjNiQnA1VmVFNmFCLTFjRXhncHlfWWQwSEFhWW5LejItckgxUS1GcDZHOEs2ZEdBSW95cGdTeEY?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/hezbollah-and-israel-swap-threats-and-strikes-across-lebanons-border?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz-nuclear.html
- [16] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-vows-countermeasures-if-eu-enacts-made-in-europe-plan/article70913665.ece
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
进展要点
- 美国国内：刺杀事件或加速特朗普支持率反弹，强化对伊朗强硬立场
- 美国对伊朗：豁免终止叠加海军拦截行动，石油封锁与反封锁博弈加剧
- 美国对以色列：口头支持停火但行动默许，以军可能在黎巴嫩扩大行动
- 俄罗斯-朝鲜：长期军事合作框架落地，俄可能换取朝鲜弹药支持
关联路径
特朗普遇刺 / 政治不确定性 / 美元 / 黄金上涨 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗海峡收费+美豁免终止 / 石油供应收缩 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期抬升
以黎冲突升级 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产走强
俄乌核设施遇袭 / 核安全担忧 / 地缘溢价扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427091017XG8
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260426/daba923ddc844ddabea5d0129532f166/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-27/10611350.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxgv8j7zlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPcVBWblkyWXVKYUo5a0NJTU5leldLUzZ2alhRVXFoWHdHWWtkZDJwSUl3WVZWeW92T001QXJNLUEwY1NnNUlxSk4wVEM2LWJ4d290NXBFbzF5RkRpMzFNd3JzQTRGejBHNWx6bjFEM2o2dmJJMy1uVllaenRMcUlzTUp4T2lqel9GU1ZnSW9nd253bFo4UVRjMVhEdVFuMW1mM3EtYXp4WXNCamtaZ2steWtXclVJZGlLTFE?oc=5
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/us/politics/shots-fired-inside-the-pandemonium-at-the-washington-hilton.html
- [7] https://orf.at/stories/3428055
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-wont-renew-iranian-russian-215951473.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/israel-issues-forced-evacuation-orders-for-southern-lebanon-in-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4116887-zelensky-strike-on-chernobyl-npp-shows-moscow-cannot-be-trusted-as-international-partner.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/russia-north-korea-agree-long-term-military-cooperation/a-76945404?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/how-israel-deployed-iron-dome-to-uae-amid-iran-war-explained/articleshow/130535531.cms
- [13] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ee3833fdddff1c348b458a.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/feuilleton/2026-04/correspondents-dinner-donald-trump-attentat-pressekonferenz-weisses-haus
- [15] https://elpais.com/videos/2026-04-26/cronologia-visual-del-atentado-contra-trump-en-la-cena-de-corresponsales-de-la-casa-blanca.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427072511bO0
- [17] https://orf.at/stories/3428051
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-peace-talks-pakistan.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPUDFiSmpOTEdtZlVya0poQkx2Q29ZNlZGWkEtd21lVk5IQ20yXzBTbmZsOV9BM0RvTk9rMUREaTJPYmJEZUV0V2I3cUdVa3lBVkJGY2NJcnd1THVvVGZkWURleFBnWjZrMUVlaW5iZ2g0OEc3dW9hdy1PNzlqeVdRcy1ZU0pWMC1BUGdTb2JPVVFfd1RKdVBBUS1DcFYxdU44cGFzSE5FR2_SAa4BQVVfeXFMTVloSWlMQjRRa0FxRlNoMHBKM3RERjhla2ctajgyUEF6UmNqbFZ2bklrS2lDUF81U0pTZlRmVGlDN2tvNldoRmxEa1Z4cjBQTVJrbmNiUDFDWHo4WEVubnowYWtDbkMxYUpMblJxTkdPN0JYdVZRRlBOQlB2ZktBakFvS0ZIOXVxWFJfeDBrOVBGeU91OF8zZjFDcGVLX2F1ZW9DVGdyTW54LS0
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/trump-his-administration-likely-targets-at-media-dinner-us-official?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-26
2026-04-26
进展要点
- 美国预计继续以‘经济之怒’金融施压伊朗，同时可能推动扫雷以恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行。
- 特朗普面临选举年经济压力，可能调整伊朗政策以控制油价，但外交窗口已关闭。
- 英国等欧洲国家将加速制定能源短缺应急预案，可能释放战略石油储备。
- 以色列对黎巴嫩政策趋于强硬，美国或保持有限支持，但默许打压迫真主党。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀与央行紧缩预期
美伊谈判破裂 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强
以黎冲突升级 / 中东溢出风险 / 原油流动性收紧
特朗普言论 / 政策不确定性 / 股市波动放大
来源
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/doble-bloqueo-estrecho-ormuz-atasca-trump-busqueda-salida-caotica-gestion-guerra-iran_1_13168241.html
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russian-attacks-kill-3-wound-082655969.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/26/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-talks-under-siege-trump-cancels-envoys-trip?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ecadb421efa0b0538b45a2.html
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/usa-iran-trump-absage-pakistan
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426085319zmZ
- [7] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-says-its-hunting-for-explosive-mines-in-latest-push-to-open-strait-of-hormuz/article70905372.ece
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1060483/iran-sita-dua-kapal-di-selat-hormuz-diduga-terkait-dengan-israel
- [9] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-stepping-up-plans-potential-37069193
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-sonntag-112.html
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/perehovory-ssha-ta-iranu-v-pakystani-zirvalysia-shche-do-pochatku-hlava-mzs-iranu-zalyshyv-islamabad
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-26/10610976.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxOUHFYOUgyaGRzV0Z3eWVYQkNoR3Zfd1NxdjJyR000bDhDYk12dUs4RnNRSThKbHF0d2I4STM2NXNyNU5SRTZncGNlcmxDblZrOVV5WUt1VmIxZG5TdTV2YUR2N3RvZ2pYeWxIUW5rUndJd1EzTXJvRE54bHMxNTVkanUwZWFZdHRqanhhalVpZ1NWRi03UDhCLVRseHlQRF9rTVExa2lfN2U4d3MwVEEtMi1HMm4?oc=5
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Netanjahu-befiehlt-trotz-Waffenruhe-massive-Angriffe-im-Libanon-id30755821.html
- [15] https://orf.at/stories/3427974
- [16] https://www.irna.ir/news/86137239/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF
- [17] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/latest-ceasefire-talks-fail-as-irans-top-diplomat-leaves-pakistan-and-trump-tells-envoys-not-to-go
- [18] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozdushnye-sily-rossiya-vypustila-po-ukraine-47-raket-i-bolee-600-bespilotnikov
- [19] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260425-strait-talks-what-s-at-stake-in-hormuz
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426080800Pgk
2026-04-25
2026-04-25
进展要点
- 美联储：沃什接任预期强化，缩表进程可能提前，但消费者信心疲软或推迟加息。
- 美国财政部：继续对伊朗石油实施金融封锁，豁免到期后可能扩大次级制裁。
- 中国商务部：可能报复性制裁美国企业，或限制稀土出口。
- 欧洲央行：需关注中国制裁对欧洲制造业的影响，可能维持宽松。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
美国制裁中国炼油厂 / 中国石油进口成本上升 / 人民币贬值压力 / 新兴市场资金外流
消费者信心崩溃 / 美国消费放缓 / 经济衰退预期 / 美债收益率曲线倒挂加深
沃什缩表信号 / 流动性收紧 / 利率上升 / 股票估值压缩
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639021-trump-hormuz-iranian-boats-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/world/middleeast/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-23/trump-ordena-disparar-a-matar-a-los-barcos-que-minen-ormuz-y-dice-que-iran-no-sabe-quien-es-su-lider.html
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260425090048v87
- [5] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/24/us-imposes-sanctions-on-a-china-based-oil-refinery-40-shippers-over-iranian-oil
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/us-justice-department-drops-investigation-into-fed-chair-powell/a-76929212?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOeUFpRTI4WDZhekJUTm1KdGVjNzZiQ3BkR0FySWMzNHlyd1N4SnZTMGpXV2pWRjdQZnYxRUJpM0REUmZxbXFFakRFbG9ZRDJVeWVqM25LcmV3ZURPbWZlXzkxOUhEN0NnOVpwWVdNcU5vakJhazZOVmN5VG5GLVZ0WFAxQ0RXd2pwc1JTYlFOam1raV9CS25lTXQweXhYcUNjWlIzajJzQ013RjgxQS1F0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1UZmFPY2IyMnZvd0lDRmFFVk9HdDhsVnA2RmlfZW52Mkk1allGS0M4RmZ3RHRva01lQmhMZjhCdTFfdnJtNUlBekx5MUJfa09HTE56WURvdGNheDN3Y1Y5SlVVU19SUnFwUWFnYTlUNEZaVDVZQ01DUElDTENMZE9lUnZ1WkYxbFRoTUJxU3dITlFJa014a3liMnkzcFBSNWdwR1R
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260425/0c21b585a3b042a0a07f61a95419c370/c.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/24/russian-oil-exports-slump-as-ukraine-hammers-ports-and-refineries?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-slaps-export-curbs-on-european-firms-over-taiwan-arms-sales/article70901919.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-25/10610558.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-bans-dual-items-exports-083335858.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-hegseth-us-blockade-has-gone-global
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202604250844155JP
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNbHZtdmRvTVVHbUdLSXRqam5mSEsxZTUxdHFwaENuVktwWVR1NVp6UUVEWnpVbHNxampEMngtRVpad1M0emxUZUhRcThVTTFnbWZrYnFSNHJrVWZXNHR4SHhwQlBHOURMbm8zR04zcmhkdTFYRUlRY0VoVnItdVhsRnhTU1lEZnVyeUc0a0Zqb2xNNGhDeDR4VmtqVUJ2UC1jRF9LY0FLR1B6RWU1WVhreU5uVdIBuAFBVV95cUxPWkVSdXFvTDYyaDhkcFRHRUYxWjM0amJrZGxXSElSb2Q5bnlwREhPbkZ6T0JFQ3U2Ml9QSjJPQW5UYTRmaWEzcDN0RDJ4RkV6akJpWVZfWjJGd3FKQW9pN3Z3UmJQZU1EeE82bzRhUVJQbWJwR0Rxa1hzSFR1TWJIdURzWEJCMjM1b0lKM2UtRjl3YUdySkFXVzlwd1U1U0E
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-rates-balance-sheet.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/24/us-justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/639029-israel-threatens-iran-stone-age/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10610537.shtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-24/el-cerco-maritimo-estadounidense-agrava-la-fragil-situacion-economica-de-iran.html
2026-04-24
2026-04-24
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙持续，外交谈判陷入僵局，伊朗拒谈直至封锁解除
- 特朗普不急于结束战争，美国增派航母表明长期军事存在
- 欧盟连续对俄制裁，但内部分歧（如斯洛伐克诉讼）可能削弱执行
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险资产下跌
欧盟制裁俄罗斯 / 能源贸易限制 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 欧元承压
中东战争 / 巴拿马运河收费翻倍 / 全球贸易成本上升
德黑兰防空活动 / 停火破裂风险 / 避险需求提振黄金
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69ea61f0e85eceab218b45a1.html
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-shoot-and-kill-on-mine-laying-boats-in-strait-of-hormuz/live-76903459?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-seizes-another-115401871.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260424/trump-orders-us-navy-to-destroy-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/us-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/23/trump-orders-military-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-small-boats-choking-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/24362fec668c4243bdc5f187d6e9c804/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBHWHh4MHJiY3N4OUJkNG8tSnpscUVWQjFMaUhtMkdMOGxtU0s5YjY0TzBpNUhsZ0Y3YzJ3clVaa2d2X29MMUNTRXhKQ0tWbUlfTUxrcGJmMmpFbUZYTUpjVjR1bHAwbzV4UGJsVmRFWXFfTFl3b3Q0?oc=5
- [9] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578508.html
- [10] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Dritter-US-Flugzeugtraeger-im-Nahen-Osten-eingetroffen-id30749237.html
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609724.shtml
- [12] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/panama-canal-transit-fees-skyrocket-amid-war-in-middle-east/3916289
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260424/563b5786ef5a4642a43fd7c4b70058e5/c.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/24/iran-war-live-lebanon-truce-extended-trump-says-time-not-on-tehrans-side?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69e9dc91e9cf4ab1528b4573.html
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578352.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Explosionen-und-Flugabwehr-ueber-Teheran-id30749146.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609710.shtml
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPZnctV1ZiSVNwQ2pqOFo4V0pCOFVZOEJjYUkwVUVWNzFIZEZBVnIzQlV5eEU2MGNlUWllOE9IVFc4dE96SmdOOVp0UjZjWmVEQlZjazI3SG9yb1k3WGJxbVlEXzU5bUZnU2YteDdLaVNlTHk0NGlDTUdyZ3l4ZXBxelBsYVdQalNja3c0Ug?oc=5
2026-04-23
2026-04-23
进展要点
- 美国可能继续强化能源供应链，以应对通胀压力和地缘风险。
- 欧盟推进乌克兰贷款和对俄制裁，旨在维护区域稳定，但可能加剧能源紧张。
- 德国下调增长预期，可能促使欧元区调整货币政策以应对通胀。
- 特朗普政府延长停火但无终战时间表，显示外交政策不确定性持续。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨
停火延长 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹
能源危机 / 经济增长下调 / 风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxPUTdJWGw0MnB0amZkdDE2aXVJckZnRlFYd0xfa3RYc2dmTHNFWXVLLWdRb0Nld2otX2tFc0dTclBJdFpYMEtPbnltRXREUV9jdVhTa01lMXl3Rzl2MFV5T29xOWR4b0l0SGpvTzROcWRzZFhpdjNVS0xNMDZjbGI4WXpGZW1USEdKQU9rSG80OWo1bjV0UnJLckh0ZlZPVTVLa2FNcjZmNmtzUEpydmFN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1tc3Qxd1ZDQnhhcXU0TEs3aFB2aGZMVmhZRzQ2aGU4MkpTTG04YnU5QUpEbG9rTjhFOVBOTm5IMDFWaURnMHhWVXR1R1NSc2xEbktZRXpycUlOcVV1eEVkVEZSdVhneFNSdWF1dWZzWV9mTzlZQnEwa0tmX3hBUFZCWm5zb0dzMTZVbHkzQ09rVGM5dm5ocWc3ZEhtMFlHMTY2RXB
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-maintains-blockade-diplomacy-stalls?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/3da4708309dd4578bd9853b98a86c87a/c.html
- [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-divers-mines-strait-of-hormuz/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w3vqv0edpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-stocks-close-higher-after-trump-extends-ceasefire-with-iran-earnings-boost-sentiment/3915269
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260423/69a4fb69dfc24375a06c1ec4201d8b04/c.html
- [8] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/22/irgc-fires-on-container-ship-in-hormuz-as-trump-says-iran-collapsing-financially
- [9] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638934-fuel-crisis-summer-holidays-europe/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-23/10608931.shtml
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/ukraine-restarts-russian-oil-flows-to-europe-unblocking-90bn-eu-loan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozle-chernobylskoi-i-hmelnitskoi-aes-proletalo-35-kinzhalov-nekotorye-upali-kravchenko
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995dkl4dvvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-hormuz-as-us-blockade-holds-talks-stall?utm_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-turned-back-29-vessels-since-start-of-naval-blockade-of-iran-centcom/3915220
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPRFZKelM2ZlBobW5DVjNhY2ZWeDc2a0VKZ3otVU1xNWFIOHFSVFhKUTFMenFtc3JUSTNwcWRoYW5uN05RZFhYcHFYQ1RNTHQ1YjVtQUlUcm55SHJmcV9FdzBzNFBIRDRDS3MzanlnN280bWFDSVRpY3NQZW5xanBHWWFzLVp5SUltSEh3eVV5ZmpjcWpUZDJ0eTZUVW8wMG9DdVdNcEpOM2t3bE0ydGVJZkZKTHhJVHp3UEdv?oc=5
- [18] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/evrosoyuz
- [19] https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-slashes-economy-growth-forecasts/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
2026-04-22
2026-04-22
进展要点
- 美联储主席提名听证会进行中，政策方向不确定性增加
- 欧洲央行行长拉加德关注能源冲击，可能影响欧元区货币政策
- 美国维持对伊朗海军封锁，显示地缘政策强硬立场
- 日本武器出口放宽反映安全环境恶化，区域防务政策调整
关联路径
伊朗谈判破裂 / 中东地缘风险上升 / 油价和金价上涨 / 通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪
中美 tensions / 制裁风险 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金上涨
美联储政策预期 / 美元和利率波动 / 全球资产重新定价 / 股市调整
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260422/82f87a374e194c6eaba6c6c350563634/c.html
- [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-france-to-lead-multinational-strait-of-hormuz-military-planning-conference
- [3] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/trump-estende-indefinidamente-o-cessar-fogo-com-o-ira-horas-antes-de-fim-de-prazo.ghtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/eu-eyes-options-as-iran-conflict-threatens-jet-fuel-shortages?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/04/21/petroleo-sobe-com-impasse-nas-negociacoes-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-dials-up-pressure-after-japanese-destroyer-transits-taiwan-strait
- [7] https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/donald-trump-primark-rollsroyce-jd-vance-tim-cook-b1279515.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dl3ez4mpno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/thought-i-had-understanding-with-xi-trump-says-ship-seized-by-us-had-gift-from-china-for-iran/articleshow/130421362.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638850-japan-pacifict-policy-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-22/10608177.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPX05YQks4SXZnMmVqN1Zxb1l5VDVvQkpzUlJKWHNhNjZFSVhsVEczYV9nTTluTHlROHl4b3FkeHY3MG83a21DVkVWQ2MwSzBmRmVNWHByd19DNGdIRzR0MTN0X3Q3LV9SRWFTOWxObm9raE11MkJOeXB2b2RMS3d4VHlSSERCNngwdEx1X0hESUtNTWpaS0F6dXljbDN4bS1NSXVTNU50RllVWXprMXhaSg?oc=5
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/peace-deal-trump-bombing-ceasefire-deadline-b2961967.html
- [14] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260420~cdf674023e.en.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/energy-environment/strait-hormuz-oil-natural-gas.html
- [16] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4114995-zelensky-approves-list-of-ukraines-next-military-operations.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/d76e6830831749beb548e9357889dd1c/c.html
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/ir-diz-que-bloqueio-naval-dos-eua-ato-de-guerra.ghtml
- [20] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/21/kevin-warsh-diz-que-fed-precisa-de-novo-arcabouco-para-enfrentar-a-inflacao.ghtml
2026-04-21
2026-04-21
进展要点
- 美联储独立性面临考验，特朗普提名凯文·M·沃什领导美联储，将捍卫利率设定能力。
- 美国维持对伊朗强硬政策，封锁霍尔木兹海峡直至达成协议。
- 通胀压力上升因油价上涨，可能影响全球央行政策收紧步伐。
- 特朗普威胁对伊朗实施经济战，包括关税和制裁，政策不确定性高。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地区冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
谈判破裂 / 中东升级 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/65dcf44dad444df1af920586d6915969/c.html
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd88r2wjzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/20/how-is-the-iran-war-affecting-the-russia-ukraine-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260421/e881f10543754b00b9e5db0a154542e5/c.html
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-b2961365.html
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/military-blockade-iran-strait-hormuz.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxORXd1REM4UGE3TGNlNUo3SENlLVVKU0c5a0pYSE9tUGxVSXZ4TTR5UDhNdjMtMzMyUGxSaXdMZFRaajVvZkl4X01FOER2QWFHTExmdUppX0N2UlpLdW5BOFp6R1dCQkpESGh0TDRLZU5ORlB3OXo2aFhMVTA1V1EyNmlkNndvMGU4MEl5WVB5eVVXUW1NY3p3aThMNjE3VVYtMTlybGpIMA?oc=5
- [8] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-marines-uss-tripoli-seized-iranian/?id=132196152
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638762-israel-blood-feud-us-iran-james-webb/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260420221202mpn
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/dxw/2026/04-20/10607342.shtml
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/4c7f703fb14b4f41ad1af9f68fb3055c/c.html
- [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75kg0vdxyro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-senate-banking-committee-hearing.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/638768-trump-iran-threats-acceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxQZklJTEJXMTV5c3o3REtYRTJCTmFRRVFWZEYzY2p2OEtGSTc2S3BnUVBLcmVDanltVGpvUVR1OWUydnJONTdETElIampPT1pCeXpiaVM0bXl4Tnk4YWtLQTdGM04tekZDUlg2SHdXX0lCNHBGSjlteUpJR05HbXRCV0NXNFZVNkpTay1sTGxoZXJ3ckhVRG5ZOVM0NWNTTDlybUdsbnlJTE1nMHdIZmpJbXJvbHF5VmNZZ1NwUEppOG8?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/israel-never-talked-me-into-the-war-with-iran-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-israel-iran-war-october-7-b2961183.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420214421sFT
2026-04-20
2026-04-20
进展要点
- 美国可能强化军事部署，同时保持谈判窗口，但威胁使用经济制裁。
- 伊朗或采取不对称报复，如封锁海峡或支持代理人攻击。
- 国际社会呼吁克制，但调解努力面临美伊互不信任挑战。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀压力
谈判停滞 / 地缘不确定性增加 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
伊朗强硬回应 / 地区供应中断 / 能源市场波动 / 股市调整
大国博弈加剧 / 全球风险溢价上升 / 资产重新定价
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420083047QIP
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOdlRGMC1MdHFSUm5aa0tZbDA1NDF6d3Rpb0RLNm1SNFF0eGl6YUY3WWJHM011bnFYZEdFX2ltay1yZzY5X0lSaENVM0M2bzUwUUhOZHd4VmEtaElwdndWa3J5cjc4MnRfTk53RUlhUGJyQ1NidEt5cVRFbGhkX0VLaUpn0gGHAUFVX3lxTFBWQUkyUERmREFYWGc2Yk5OSy11Rm9Ed3VZSlpIaEppTC1aVGZHdmJ5bHE3cU9hRzAtSjFPWEwtVWNMQjc2MWtwbWJadzZFaGNMOF9FRlVEeE1mbXdzZWpwbnEwSFdFZjJjYmwzQU1DSzRxTC1Kc2VzeUdKV25uVV9HWlZmTk5nWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260420/2abb8511885f4948a0bdb0526b5aae77/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjzy35825o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606799.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-confirms-us-seized-iranian-vessel-says-it-will-retaliate-soon-/3911687
- [7] https://globalnews.ca/news/11808120/iran-oil-prices-strait-of-hormuz-standoff
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-vows-response-to-us-seizure-of-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/19/us-forces-attack-and-seize-iranian-ship-touska-near-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638742-us-fires-iranian-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg4jnn131qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114330-tramp-zaaviv-pro-perehoplenna-iranskogo-sudna-amerikanskimi-vms-v-omanskij-zatoci.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-19/estados-unidos-intercepta-un-petrolero-irani-que-trataba-de-superar-el-estrecho-de-ormuz.html
- [14] https://orf.at/stories/3427365
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260419/c7286c8315d6457eb38862da3bdb061f/c.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420082541zWf
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606779.shtml
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-seized-iranian-flagged-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOanFJd19CUnZMSkRITFo3bmh0OGdPN2hKM2x0V1ZDcGpvSU0tck56YU9nZlY3aWJJdFRsNzVEeDBnLXEyV21BWnI0MUFKTjYtel96T3N1ZzczRGEydWJrWDVoZWprS09qMDJacVVqVVlZX2E4dU9ocmNyd1V6OFdEUkY5X29ORU1UZHRkZjY1aU1CRHlS?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/638736-us-seizes-iranian-flagged-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-19
2026-04-19
进展要点
- 美国可能扩大对伊朗的制裁和军事行动，以施压其重新开放海峡。
- 伊朗可能寻求外部支持或采取进一步军事回应，对抗美国封锁。
- 全球主要经济体可能干预以稳定石油市场，如释放战略储备。
关联路径
伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀风险上升
美伊紧张升级 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
美国登检伊朗船只 / 地缘风险加剧 / 石油供应担忧 / 市场波动增加
地区冲突扩大 / 全球风险情绪恶化 / 资产重新定价
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/19/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-date-set-for-us-talks-hormuz-strait-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-fully-closes-strait-of-hormuz-over-us-blockade/article70879044.ece
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE1PclNJckZUN0o5SXVGa1REVkhfVG9wZUx6T2E4Z1R0SkpmWW9MdE5fU2RaaEhpaGt2dk9Ucm5lLURRV085S3hfb1hWSl9TdjRKc2t4WFZqSHcxeTNqbjI4UHVDczlINHRpcktodGFCLS1ZN3pDN0ZuZ2dn?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-iran-war-end-052157501.html
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/more-than-1-000-tel-aviv-homes-left-uninhabitable-by-iran-war-mayor/3911064
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114122-tramp-obgovoriv-u-situacijnij-kimnati-krizu-sodo-ormuzkoi-protoki-axios.html
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/18/nx-s1-5789852/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-tenuously-holds
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2631x6nelo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638685-us-board-iran-vessels/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sklykav-terminovu-naradu-cherez-zahrozu-viiny-z-iranom-zmi
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3427284
- [12] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/18/69e3c454fc6c839d028b459f-video.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-face-au-blocus-am%C3%A9ricain
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaWhWNHdua3F2cEE3RVNzZFNHV1o5N0RsOFFybkxtOThyWm5BZ2MzNXRsYTFuVnJHREp1LVotYWJidXc1T2NqM0RzM2NMQmtNdXlyQ1ViZ0RhaEJRckJIVDY2bURJZXpfMW5hZTlWT0F4VGlsdUVRYnlOYlVXNERxWG9IeUN4S2ZZUmJGUkJkUzAwY1FsQ1c3NVFRQWo5N0Rq?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-over-us-blockade-of-its-ports?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-hints-resuming-attacks-045633309.html
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-strait-to-close-until-us-lifts-naval-blockade/3910961
- [18] https://orf.at/stories/3427249
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114099-vijskovi-ssa-gotuutsa-do-visadki-na-sudna-povazani-z-iranom-wsj.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
2026-04-18
2026-04-18
进展要点
- 美国可能继续对伊朗施压，直到达成协议，封锁措施或持续。
- 欧洲计划加速多国行动保障霍尔木兹海峡航行自由，凸显与美国政策分歧。
- 中国坚守台海主权立场，可能采取进一步反制措施，需关注外交动态。
- 全球对石油供应安全的关注上升，可能推动更多能源安全倡议。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡开放 / 石油供应增加 / 油价下跌 / 通胀缓解、股市上涨
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 避险资产需求上升
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘紧张缓解 / 风险资产上涨、油价承压
台海紧张 / 避险情绪 / 美元黄金走强、风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/how-50-days-of-iran-war-led-to-loss-of-50-billion-worth-of-oil?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260417/2d185ad19a1a47de86f5fc1979224deb/c.html
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009552315
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNUzlVaVRtODBnRGVTaG1TUzFDNG9KN2pZMEZxdmMzMU9QemsydzVmLXZXRmROZnBGbjZDYTBtTU1pV3lJWHRBWUNzTkJVR0tuejR0eHBDNWRLUDVCQTNuMzRDbE9zeTJpbkotRjVRaExWc3loZ1lyUlgtRVB2MUNmUDdCemYxLTVWQmhCUXJhbmU2SDNoU1duS1pRVDhQUzk3SjB6NDRnTldDS0pRLTRNLWlkazFMWDVTZ01yaEhKbVhqYm8?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/stocks-surge-oil-prices-plummet-134523237.html
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/editorial/quick-take/2026/Apr/17/quick-take-dial-i-for-hormuz
- [7] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/tramp-dumayu-mirnoe-soglashenie-s-iranom-budet-cherez-den-dva
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/17/world-reacts-to-the-opening-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-amid-us-iran-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg045z73z1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-to-accelerate-effort-secure-hormuz-despite-donald-trump-order-to-stay-away/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260417/8f9f2d58ec6b4645bb2039f88bd37eaa/c.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/oil-tumbles-nearly-15-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-completely-open
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOZGV0aXlsUV9hejJ5LVBuU3BramFsdS14V2YwVG8zcGRtOW9WWlZjQnkyU1I4bHVuZFRrdnB3VlplemJPaDM0NUt4Ql9qRDF1SzlFZnUteXVncGI4MGk1bW5VQUhYMDVpdUdIQzZfcEtocTFRUXpWNmk0NlNQanRrSTZ4a3g?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260418/1f1df6c278ae404fbac5646e4671ca71/c.html
- [15] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-plunge-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-completely-open-trump-says-regime-has-agreed-to-indefinitely-suspend-nuclear-program-134154875.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/4/17/aje-onl-tt_irn_kharg_av_v3-170426?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/traders-place-760-million-bet-on-falling-oil-ahead-of-hormuz-announcement?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009551315
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
进展要点
- G7准备采取措施缓解战争经济影响，可能协调能源储备释放。
- 国际能源署已表态准备再次释放战略石油储备，应对供应冲击。
- 中国稳健GDP增长或支撑亚洲地区货币政策保持相对宽松。
- 美国军事动员增加，国防预算可能上调，影响财政政策。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油和化肥供应中断 / 全球通胀上升和增长放缓 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌和股市上涨 / 风险情绪改善
俄罗斯空袭升级 / 欧洲安全风险上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 避险情绪升温
中国GDP增长强劲 / 全球宏观信心提振 / 风险资产反弹 / 抵消部分地缘负面影响
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-putrajaya-malaysia
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-no-nuclear-weapons-negotiations-may-resume-this-weekend?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-finance-minister-says-hormuz-204128014.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQRmlydkxwa0Vfd1Fvc0JaYjdqWjhfLU13OExTZ3oxdWRIYU5Tak1TY2I2UUNXVC0tZXhNME43T1I5aTllYUpDTHNYVGZvNks1ZThvbUExb1lIWTFJRWhuNmNORjRKdlZ6OUdqS2ZJampPd3JIcGttTlZtRmhEZklfOTJWVFp5c2hj0gGOAUFVX3lxTFB4UnY2ZHZJbFBPNDdwUVFiczQ1dW1NaWxCak0xMHpxb1gtcnVHaWY2QTFDcVZoclJiNjNrbVVtVHBGOTNlczRRXzZQeTJoWS0xUWJSZnFRZG9rN0dRV3UwWGtYTjZpYWMzbFpIOGVNMkdDZS1YaTRBWmRRblI1dlZ3WkI3c3JKZ2lOZDh3ZHc?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/638507-iran-war-fertilizers-famine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/10-day-lebanon-israel-ceasefire-announced-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/f13262ef761049358c15786f1e02ef5f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/08b82853835e4380a67c6de63981ce96/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNWHpSTjlBOFZyYUZXaEdfNGNaM2NkZ0VvRktZT2paVnpJbkdWbk5PdVRkU1VUREJRbFRPVlNNRnlObEJ6Y2phV1dxVkZ3aVZ6TlRvUl9mZmQwT2haYXo2Q3UtTng1WHBBTnh6SS05UDJFVEZqdDgxOWtScWRDZENQYVBTYWxYMTVUWmZHV0FPNUVBbWczVnpTdWhfRHJmWHNLMkJGUTQ0QnRLeFpHREh4cFh2ZmUwRWR50gG-AUFVX3lxTE4ybmRKM0txaHgtcmEyZmhCZVdHcjEtTXM2bnBMdHBXSmZZY2hrLUxlaGw4bXYzbTNsTWVRRnNyeVZDYmhVZ0tnSUxTZGxPMFRTZlU3SUNkNGthUEs1UkhjbXhGWS1iMmlfUzRRNlA0YzZZN1NhSjJNdkRjd0h1RDRQd2pSNjVNZ1JmRXI0NjBuTHZ4VF9BSENBeDU
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/us-to-target-iran-linked-ships-worldwide-beyond-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-us-blockade-iranian-ports-053249833.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/us-general-clarifies-iranian-ports-under-blockade-not-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638501-pentagon-us-carmakers-weapons-production/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/105f7d3562064f4e99b35cc5fdd9723a/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/cca4a32d56a74796a5da62065ceadc15/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE10Q0lhRXhMX2hjajFNX1BFeVFWcVhlY1FjelE0b2tnUHBmUmtwMHBHeEJGdWhVQWlKcXRrZl9HOHlQUWVFd1dHSDJCa3NldEQ2dm1HZU5oeVRKaTlyRmI2a3JVbXBta3N3VmZTQ0NRWlp4LVpVZ2tNUFRRTndDUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQMHRMcmlCcHJaRmxTSTU3M2syUkZmZUNpWlhuNU5hMDFtV1FDbHZVaWJ6SnhVcnc2a0RxUDBaQWpBcTNQWmZHd0JEUzZnREZWYVlHdmxYWGRXWTBMRkJIby1jbXpIOVhvZFV0LTlDenNSMWZvdzdBWTZHX2Zvd180OHlCeWFyd0VDQVJKN2tkQklyM204ZFNj0gGcAUFVX3lxTFBlMkdFLUVmNXlCa3QwOVRyZHZCUWo0enpQV2RWYkxWWjd1a1A4QXdqQjFhOTJxZWJGaFNVMDgwQmdjZ21Ccy00UHhMMVluZTVtTEdHdzlZR09vdXA3OXNiNWd6ajVyUnQ1MjFQOW5WVkZGeW8ySzdFdlNhcGNXaXdlWjUxVS1qY2dFUnBqZXZ6UHpWU1BXbWtNaTNrVQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/hegseth-calls-on-iran-to-choose-wisely-says-us-military-locked-and-loaded?utm_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/trump-says-israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-temporary-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNOS1zX0NqaTM5Qmg3YmpLX2h0MVBNUXNGTzl5bEdtVFR5NWNzcXJveG1JLU5YS2t5QVhVd2ZZTnQtdWlvSWhIdjd5aGVnMjcxSG96Y2h5VTY4ZkNJWG0wUFlnaXFJLUVSMmVqeHdLT1RNQU1oRDNlRzl4eV9tcWxtZC1GM0xKYUoxTy1KQUttWmZUMm8?oc=5
2026-04-16
2026-04-16
进展要点
- 英国央行行长表示不会急于加息，因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击使利率决策困难（BBC News报道）。
- IMF建议各国审慎调整财政政策，以应对中东战事冲击，特别关注债务管理。
- 美国财政部宣布不再延长对俄罗斯和伊朗原油的制裁豁免，可能收紧全球原油供应。
- 各国央行可能因地缘风险延迟货币政策正常化，支撑风险资产。
关联路径
伊朗航运威胁 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力增加
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应风险 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求上升 / 市场波动加剧
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险溢价变化 / 风险资产（股市）与避险资产交替波动
IMF财政警告 / 政策收紧预期 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 资产价格调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / The Independent / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Ukrinform / BBC News (Top) / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ABC News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strait-of-hormuz-israel-lebanon-b2957846.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-16/10604577.shtml
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/c69fe273d1b744b2944108ca02a8801a/c.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/ukraines-zelenskyy-pursues-more-arms-deals-with-allies-to-help-check-russias-invasion?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQbHV0TWtpcXI1MGV4QlVkX2FES0hra0VSdExoT2V1Z1BqdXctZjF2VHpUYUhRRkJZS1hQekVCUzJ4RVRTSWNmcTZhaDlHUk5jdE5rZXlRNTZ6TUxYb3V2Z25XOHN1VWlrd1o0dXM2NG0yOVZvSnhLMGxQVFFYLXNOWks1UXNBNFRhYWxiTnNiYk9GaXpJaE9zSmE1bGo0d21WY25BLUhOeS0wV3BENzNRaHhR?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4113009-combined-attack-on-ukraine-air-defense-downs-20-missiles-349-drones.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5330l73y2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/us-military-turned-back-six-ships-first-24-hours-iranian-port-blockade-rcna331828
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260416030852ajh
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-the-uk-warn-the-iran-war-distracts-from-ukraine-and-oil-price-rises-help-russia/a-76797004?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-blockade-iran-talks-fail-021511400.html
- [12] https://abcnews.com/video/132069550
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/iran-warns-us-naval-blockade-threatens-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/31b1cba1e11b4a908fb2652045db2bc4/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-16/10604568.shtml
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/us/money/stock-market-today-wall-street-iran-war-b2958559.html
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/us-stocks-hit-all-time-high-on-middle-east-optimism?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-high-iran-war-rcna331900
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNMHBnOGZlNTdlN1lMMWVITElFc3FtNVdTZFA1b3k0NkU5NFFVN1Jod3gtSDRJTzJVQk5McDB2S2FKbzBTTkZQUm5OREVkQXhHbnl6UnpfLWVTVmU0cmF5NEttbHVkdGh2R3d3MjZaWUFfbEJJSGR4NWhtSGVxcTV4eE44SjRRelpPeFZ0WEZhY3lmOHlKblZyaEd0T0gwd01sNmRN0gGoAUFVX3lxTE43b1AxT0NfZTdSY2kyMGJZSkZ1Yy15R2VOQUhsVTJFYTBJU2JDRlFEbWNET1VlSDc2MUxEUHZxR1lGc0ZNTW43bTd0Vko0aFhXNDlBekdOX0F2dGlfNEpSWUo5NHpwZUVTNlVqVHBpRWQ2REVQaUItdTg5YXpISUhTdzg1aERRcHE2RHJ6OEF6eURQSkx1aFNMbE5NWF96dWt3dDJONUtueg?oc=5
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-mixed-after-trump-orders-hormuz-blockade-against-iran-145712025.html
2026-04-15
2026-04-15
进展要点
- 美联储与欧央行货币政策短期仍将保持谨慎，高度关注地缘冲突对通胀（上行）与增长（下行）的双向影响。
- 美国对伊朗政策处于关键窗口：4月19日制裁豁免到期后是否恢复制裁，将显著影响全球石油供应预期。
- 需关注主要经济体（如韩国）因进口通胀压力加大，其国内货币政策可能被迫做出应对。
- 欧洲央行执行委员会成员菲利普·R·莱恩就欧元区经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。
关联路径
美伊谈判重启预期 / 中东紧张缓解 / 油价下跌、股市上涨、避险资产承压
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突升级 / 美国封锁伊朗港口 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨、通胀预期升温 / 央行政策压力增大、风险资产承压
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油贸易受阻 / 增长预期下调（IMF）、通胀预期上调 / 滞胀风险升温
来源
Xinhua Finance / RT News / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Business) / The Korea Times / ECB Press Releases / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Fed
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/638432-israel-lebanon-forever-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415085953vI1
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr9qrnp821o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/20260415/import-prices-post-sharpest-rise-in-over-28-years-in-march-amid-middle-east-crisis?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260414~b312adeb55.en.pdf
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNenlEY3B4eEpDckI2bllJNTJVNzU1SDNMYjlPTzlpTC11UzA0TTRGUWstSnlSeWdsZURiNjBIODNxRmR6d01kbXUtUl95Q1FrSmFpOE9hQVRnZ2QzQWsyMkVnRkIxdHdrWVZqMzNfbXgza0EtZElMaHEyQlZtZzBsR1ppZWVvWWV2R2w5YUZ3ZkVWQdIBlwFBVV95cUxOb0dhOFBmYUVaMFFOMVZISkMzVWk1N2oxZmxiR3QxbjBqZlJXNlBwQ3VVX2VCdWpDbmEtMXFYcEJoYmJiVkJBMXU4bm1LemR5YzRhVHBGcDBQRzJNVkw3a2ZyRDJYSk1nZTdsRS1ZUjNab25aWG10V1RKdllNbFM3bTJ1SDhkN1J3bXlPS2dBbVVpLVRaM3VJ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/14/how-us-blockade-on-iran-will-worsen-energy-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260415/98576a4fba914ded8bf1975303f65b5b/c.html
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260414a.htm
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604150910068Su
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPZ0FvbkthQTRrQTJWUmN4N3ZBRVd5SlFwX2JVYjhEQkY4MTRRLVRVcUxYbHkwRDItOGhKcVNWbDFkOFFuSmhZcnFRTEJRU01NMnlTYjM0TUxjUTN1S0pwODFoZno0Q0pta0FqMl9mQ2U3Qm1qdHJwdG5sSENtVGw0dHNVT0I4Y0RRak5iWWNzTGVqZ3FxYVlIVQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-during-hormuz-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638423-russia-lavrov-china-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260415/us-iran-may-resume-talks-this-week-despite-port-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415065334Y9r
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063604GEG
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415064308ULl
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415062259Y0J
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415064537UqS
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063507Wuh
2026-04-14
2026-04-14
进展要点
- 美国可能继续施压伊朗以达成协议，封锁措施或持续
- 中国货币政策保持宽松，信贷增长支持经济稳定
- 各国或出台补贴和措施应对高油价冲击
- 联合国报告警示战争对全球贫困的影响，可能推动外交干预
关联路径
美国封锁伊朗港口 / 霍尔木兹海峡石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加
中国经济数据积极 / 信贷增长 / 局部市场情绪改善，但被全球风险抵消
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/trump-says-us-military-has-blockaded-iranian-ports-to-pressure-tehran?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260414075312mTn
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9lTGVSaGRfSFNsX1ByeERMLWoxdWREdGtBVXNaQy1EeUdZeU9RSVZYY1UxcVh6NzRadndia294eTlGbUtLOVl3N2wySTZ6aVZlMWtjRmlWNF9rVG81NDltb2ZJTU9QWVRGS1JaUUlPaHNZdjA?oc=5
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/trump-says-iranian-ships-will-be-eliminated-as-us-naval-blockade-begins?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260413/9b39653c127e47d3aa204c72aa1d20fb/c.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/638355-us-israeli-war-poverty-un/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-enforce-blockade-gulf-115534084.html
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-maritime-restrictions-increase-economic-pressure-on-iran/a-76760110?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260413/42286c72c63d41fba01b7147f7cb9dd5/c.html
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/physical-oil-hits-fresh-record-high-near-150-a-barrel-as-hormuz-crisis-worsens?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413235728qQL
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/energy-prices-rise-despite-jones-act-suspension-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638318-iran-israel-us-war-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-passenger-plane-destroyed-us-154212642.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-warns-iran-ships-to-steer-clear-of-blockade/live-76758809?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE90S1NYeU1HLWdoVmJNRXQtb2t2cUxuc1JObDV0bmlLbXVTZTM5Qko0YmVJZk1hZUxoeG5hUmNpZzVPdzdFS1JEdTNHSWFiNUFOZnQzQ1dxd2hQVzFCamdEb0tmTWtSUE9ZZ0U3TEJkdFNXWTQwaEtUTm90MnhvYVU?oc=5
2026-04-13
2026-04-13
进展要点
- 美联储等主要央行：高油价带来的“二次通胀”风险可能推迟降息进程，甚至引发加息讨论。
- 美国政策：特朗普政府可能借机推动国内能源增产，并寻求国会授权或盟友支持以强化封锁。
- 伊朗政策：可能加速核活动作为谈判筹码，或寻求与中国、俄罗斯签订长期能源安全协议。
关联路径
地缘军事冲突（封锁） / 石油供应物理中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策转鹰 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊对峙升级 / 地区安全风险溢价飙升 / 全球避险情绪主导 / 资金流入美元、美债、黄金 / 风险资产遭抛售
能源危机与通胀担忧 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 消费者信心受挫 / 全球经济衰退风险增加 / 周期性股票和大宗商品（除能源外）走弱
单边军事行动引发国际秩序动荡 / 长期投资信心受损 & 供应链重组加速 / 全球增长前景蒙阴 / 市场波动率（VIX）持续高位
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413082525uXU
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/13/iran-war-live-us-military-to-block-iranian-port-traffic-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260412-trump-orders-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-13/10602662.shtml
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-says-it-will-start-blockade-of-all-ships-going-to-and-from-iran-on-monday/article70855422.ece
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-armee-americaine-annonce-un-blocus-naval-de-tous-les-ports-iraniens-a-partir-de-lundi-apres-midi_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Praesident-Trump-kuendigt-Blockade-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-an-id30705712.html
- [8] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-12/trump-anuncia-su-propio-bloqueo-naval-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-y-las-negociaciones-quedan-en-el-aire.html
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-strait-of-hormuz-naval-blockade/live-76750859?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/strait-to-crisis-trump-orders-hormuz-blockage-after-talks-sink/articleshow/130210828.cms
- [11] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/12/69dbaae6fc6c83b0518b4570.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/trump-announces-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz-after-iran-talks-collapse-over-nuclear-demands-133605926.html
- [13] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=200747
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn781z4lgg4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-abc-news-breakfast-36
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413075746ide
- [17] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-ordonne-un-blocus-du-detroit-d-ormuz-et-menace-les-soutiens-de-l-iran-apres-l-echec-des-negociations_6676633_3210.html
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260412-trump-says-us-will-begin-blockading-the-strait-of-hormuz
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/12/trump-announces-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-after-us-iran-peace-talks-end?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-12
2026-04-12
进展要点
- 美国可能继续军事施压，以削弱伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制
- 伊朗立场强硬，谈判中坚持海峡控制权，可能延长冲突
- 乌克兰停火执行困难，双方互指违反，和平进程受阻
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘紧张升级 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 风险资产抛售
军事行动加剧 / 石油供应中断 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场波动加大
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412091323e3R
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/12/iran-war-live-historic-face-to-face-talks-with-us-continue-in-islamabad?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens/article70852336.ece
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-pause-for-now-disagreements-remain?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602264.shtml
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-negociations-entre-teheran-et-washington-se-poursuivent-toute-tentative-de-navires-militaires-de-franchir-le-detroit-d-ormuz-fera-l-objet-d-une-reaction-severe-menacent-les-gardiens-de-la-revolution_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-usa-islamabad-strasse-hormus
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426624
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iran-hold-historic-direct-negotiations-in-pakistan-as-wars-fragile-ceasefire-holds
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260411-washington-affirme-commencer-le-d%C3%A9minage-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/navy-tests-hormuz-blockade-expert-172203991.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4111582-dva-korabli-vms-ssa-pocali-rozminuvanna-ormuzkoi-protoki-cnn.html
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-irans-marine-warnt-us-kriegsschiff-vor-durchquerung-a-e7da4550-99e4-4487-b95d-6815467ea8a6
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412090741Hbt
- [16] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens?utm_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260411-iran-us-negotiations-underway-in-pakistan-us-says-strait-of-hormuz-being-cleared
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/numbers-us-thrashed-military-targets-103019697.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/11/en-direct-benyamin-netanyahou-soutient-qu-israel-a-aneanti-les-programmes-nucleaire-et-balistique-iraniens-les-etats-unis-affirment-que-deux-de-leurs-navires-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz_6676633_3210.html
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602257.shtml
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
进展要点
- 美联储可能因通胀超预期而加快加息步伐。
- 美国关税政策面临法律挑战，贸易关系不确定性上升。
- 地缘冲突可能促使更多国家采取保护主义措施。
- 能源价格上涨加剧全球通胀压力，央行政策趋紧。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 加息预期
地缘紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
美国CPI超预期 / 美联储政策收紧 / 全球资产波动
贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求上升 / 市场情绪谨慎
来源
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
参考链接
- [1] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4111356-invaders-strike-highrise-in-sumy-with-drone-casualties-reported.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/10/us-iran-negotiations-in-islamabad-what-to-expect?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260410-iran-sets-preconditions-ahead-of-ceasefire-talks-as-vance-warns-tehran-not-to-play-us
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPQ2d4akxuNWFVSkhyeUJpOHlJdExpc2ZkVW44NjNiVGJjdExCV3Nnam1iUklTTndtQ0xQOFB4UFA2VEtnX2lmSElETWxIeFpBQXdyQlR0NXBRNHZiWDN4ZHhINnRLSjhHdWNHMnlubmR5VWxpOUFuM1NtVkFCVENOMUlR?oc=5
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/trump-s-latest-global-tariffs-challenged-in-federal-court-friday
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-malgre-l-annonce-d-une-treve-pascale-le-service-de-securite-d-ukraine-appelle-la-population-a-rester-vigilante_6676836_3210.html
- [7] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-10/los-ultimos-ataques-israelies-en-libano-y-el-bloqueo-irani-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-ponen-en-peligro-las-negociaciones-de-paz.html
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-kyjiws-truppen-attackieren-russische-oelterminals-a-d4e9f8b2-892e-464c-9f38-5e258e66d585
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-are-loading-warships-with-best-weapons-trump-hints-at-big-op-if-iran-us-talks-fail/articleshow/130175216.cms
- [10] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-friday-10-april-2026-b2955434.html
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/05d6312f9e134201bb0b6f53f49d0ddf/c.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/10/new-tensions-emerge-before-us-iran-war-ceasefire-talks-in-pakistan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQN2p1TmlnSW85azJoOTM2MXFtSjNHS1RpN2piNXBkeUVGdHpORnd6TGkwVVJKTGh3UTc0dVY1d0NzaUJ4bzZqNXJ0QVJkaUFjNDZpRmdrWjd1UTV4eXNFTHhwUFFxSHBaVU82RVBDaWtieGxGNnMxVnMxbU80aUo1SGd3U2hMUUlyaWc1LWJyZXVDZ0VDVFhQdFUzd0dwSWRuS01ral9NS2U1RkE2NlN4cE5sNS0?oc=5
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-le-president-du-parlement-iranien-exige-un-cessez-le-feu-au-liban-et-le-deblocage-des-actifs-avant-toute-negociation_6676633_3210.html
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260410-us-and-iran-prepare-for-ceasefire-talks-as-netanyahu-authorises-negotiations-with-lebanon
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/inflation-trump-iran-war-usa-b2955258.html
- [17] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/sensex-jumps-919pts-as-west-asia-peace-plan-moves-ahead/articleshow/130182187.cms
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
进展要点
- 全球央行可能因油价下跌暂缓加息，但供应链风险支撑通胀预期。
- 美国贸易政策趋紧，金属进口限制或影响全球供应链和关税。
- 地缘风险降低可能减少避险需求，影响黄金和美元走势。
- 欧盟面临能源危机，政策或转向多样化供应和储备建设。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌 / 股市上涨 / 避险资产需求下降
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
俄乌停火 / 地区紧张缓解 / 避险需求下降 / 风险资产反弹 / 欧元稳定
特朗普贸易政策 / 全球贸易紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 美元走强 / 大宗商品承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5776818/wall-street-stocks-oil-trump-iran-ceasefire
- [2] https://unn.ua/news/putin-oholosyv-velykodnie-peremyria-z-ukrainoiu
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-us-war-west-asia-conflict-live-updates-on-april-9-2026/article70840935.ece
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/d037e456c7be42ed80a590404ec1bdde/c.html
- [5] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/strait-hormuz-shipping-traffic-effectively-standstill-iran-ceasefire-rcna267391
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260410000451315
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410083045iUE
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/this-is-america/2026/4/9/us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-over-whats-next?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/637877-iran-war-eu-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.dw.com/de/waffenruhe-trump-stellt-annäherung-mit-iran-in-aussicht/a-76701125?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-10/10601269.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxOUG43N0U2MXF3b3RKdnkwaTRPeDZhWm1QZjJBYUhyMHB1N0pRdFgxaXZMWGFwT2dSSHFiRHFhdFZEQm14UVc5RlRaclNSR0dHS2I3ei1IeVE1b2NRUjE5NDNqd01SQ1lyTUZZam5WbmI0NlEzNmdTWUxFaWhSdmxzQndlYk1aOTFITHdISHB4RWZQTVlnZnMwLVhTV1RWUFFvSkdlUlNaeUYxMl9qRG9TdThRWGFieDJISndiei1UTGczUkxYYTBOTW1RNA?oc=5
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/f1a5072f1da04bd588110bf9c7bb5a9f/c.html
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4110989-putin-announces-easter-ceasefire.html
- [15] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/04/09/2026-06960/strengthening-actions-taken-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-steel-and-copper-into-the-united-states
- [16] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-pohodyvsia-na-velykodnie-peremyria-yake-oholosyv-putin-ta-zaiavyv-pro-hotovnist-do-dzerkalnykh-krokiv
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/putin-declares-ceasefire-in-ukraine-for-orthodox-easter/article70844673.ece
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/be450cc8cf7d4952b19e8c0e2a8b768d/c.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410080207ixS
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/637873-america-has-reached-limits/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-09
2026-04-09
进展要点
- 美联储关注战争对经济的双向风险
- 美国对北约政策不确定性增加
- 中方呼吁恢复海峡通航，发挥建设性作用
- 巴基斯坦斡旋停火推动谈判
关联路径
海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策响应
美伊谈判 / 地缘风险缓解 / 油价下跌和风险资产上涨
美元下跌 / 全球流动性改善 / 股市上涨
北约解体风险 / 地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/c45d7601476d458ea57a85851efbc952/c.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600672.shtml
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637771-us-isral-iran-ceasefire-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQM0M4QVNLMzRVZGI1YTVINHdJUWZFYU5DbEs5NjBxNVNkXzU2YUw0VDNlMXE3NTg2ZTRucjRaLXVBc19aaTF5RTA5Q1ZFOTlpZ2NYVUpqUFhMMERzRW5SdVV5dzUyajZLaVowRFR6WTM0Sks5MFFsb3NlYnRyR1lsTUdLaVBsejlaamtFcEUtODZHcjk4cjBIa2tnekhrZWpFTDlj?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260409070324dDx
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/trump-administration-says-it-is-mulling-nato-withdrawal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/4294f804a81c42af86e0af9172b98888/c.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/04-09/10600695.shtml
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/65e4ed07bbbd4ed4a2d01a8c03640431/c.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/637763-why-iran-looks-winner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQUllNR1JLdmFuV2FFOTVNQVc0UEFwWkhtbXVxTEJFcVA0bWVKenJJYWlRSElYaDU1WDg4VkVJajZiQ1hNd0d5VWFPNE40YlZYYWhPN0Z5TnZsbksydlplVmU1VWc0Ulc5cEd6MTk0MzhCSWZPX0ViQWc5eldQTUNiMlFmbWRpbC1hWDBRallTeFNsTUpHOWh6Wk0yT0FxOEcta1Y2WWl3?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/8/trump-has-found-his-iran-off-ramp-but-at-what-cost?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/fae39f2b949e4afd9c1d92b275cbc5f2/c.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-09/10600691.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600689.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600685.shtml
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/560122b87c614361b1028d6d3d7c9d1d/c.html
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c1abc49b173845e99a5c8994d1391518/c.html
- [19] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/e435b5af7fff443c85477fa3acb93775/c.html
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c7c27550cf9147f6845906a92171ec14/c.html
2026-04-08
2026-04-08
进展要点
- 美国政策：未来两周聚焦谈判，可能以“临时停火”换取海峡开放，但长期战略模糊。
- 伊朗政策：以开放海峡换取军事压力暂缓，但坚持永久停战与核权利等核心立场。
- 以色列政策：对美伊直接谈判持怀疑态度，可能寻求维持军事威慑或单独行动。
关联路径
中东冲突烈度 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航状况 / 全球石油实际供应与预期 / 油价 / 全球通胀与央行政策路径
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘政治风险溢价 / 全球避险情绪 / 黄金、美元、国债等资产价格
冲突外溢风险 / 区域稳定与全球贸易通道安全 / 供应链成本与全球增长预期 / 周期性资产表现
美国内政治对伊政策分歧 / 政策连贯性与可信度 / 美元资产长期吸引力与风险溢价
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOQWdMR2RQZEpSSnE3R1BPd1dPVVNvX21tYjhCbFZjcVJRMkozZVFxc3NKUFZid19fMTBZR2Zia3lhbmtLbDlXV21fSERfY3JNYkhEMktlNHZKVXdzaEk4UGlkcDBienpZWjl2OHpwQW9pRnBBaUh2aU5sQlBsVlNkM1FLLVowRXB4WFhWc2g3dmQxYjZzelJzNWhXRlROZjFmN2psUkJWbS1NcHF0?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260408000339Jrv
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637586-us-strikes-irans-kharg-island-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8433834/as-israel-serang-pulau-kharg-hingga-jembatan-di-iran-jelang-deadline-trump
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600068.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/d18e8a525d8f4ff289dc27c811313025/c.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/7/trump-agrees-to-pause-attacks-on-iran-if-strait-of-hormuz-opens?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4110231-slidom-za-ssa-izrail-tez-pogodivsa-na-dva-tizni-pripiniti-bojovi-dii-proti-iranu-cnn.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/08/irans-aussenminister-kuendigt-oeffnung-der-strasse-von-hormus-an
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r40y3rv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/iran-war-trump-us-israel-oil-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-announces-two-week-ceasefire/live-76700191?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604072357426WW
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600071.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxPTm1PeUtWSkM2Q01OaUZfME5YM3F4WDNnVXQtT01LQUFWbGNEWkF6ZjZDdWNsNDQ0bFBybUxhSEo5UUV0Vm1TS3BhUXNGWDZXOXJzNXRLODVqd2Z4aURvRTFqRGZDSWhLeEUyVmk5X0tqZGRfWDFvd005cXpoYUNLWFJjeU1lRkx5bmZOdHgzcjB2U0Z6SnE4Z3VSdUlWMmhYX2lVaA?oc=5
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/797d2505268b4defb0b9a7e2b0e8ddf3/c.html
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8434046/trump-tangguhkan-serangan-dewan-keamanan-iran-tangan-kita-di-pelatuk
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/trump-iran-2-week-ceasefire.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/637638-trump-iran-ceacefire-extension/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-07
2026-04-07
进展要点
- 美国政策：特朗普设最后期限施压伊朗，但内部对停火方案有分歧，军事选项仍存。
- 伊朗政策：提出停战要求但坚持永久解决方案，报复威胁表明强硬立场。
- 地区影响：海湾国家能源设施成为袭击目标，可能推动多边安全合作。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀加剧 / 央行政策收紧 / 经济增长放缓
美伊谈判破裂 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油价飙升 / 避险资产需求上升 / 股市下跌
乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设施 / 欧洲能源危机恶化 / 欧元区通胀压力 / 欧央行政策响应
伊朗内部不稳定 / 地区冲突扩散 / 石油生产国风险溢价上升 / 大宗商品波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260407000106tbx
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-wFBVV95cUxNZFFCRlBwWHNqMUpxQWFwUTVHS3Jld3BVY2ExUFNJRDNUWUx2X3FpM1dtX3dfQ1hzaEhVejlGcDZSa2hVRjZuZnNOTXFudEM4dUFlRHJWWE1PV2lfTFpoMlVCVl91ZWdEZHZPY2E4V3h3dEh6UzhoQ1JRd01DM3BsYjZLbTVDWmM5YmU0eFB0LWNINTVlenFMS0wxZ1RnZFF3U25XdlZqeGlhbzlmN3Y1c3hoYzctcHVGV05zN2hCLUJZcFBFazJzLWNkemt5d0dzdE50amU3M3NobllWTjVlTkd3UXpBbENOM3lPajMwN0xocGxPcDlEMXp0QQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599509.shtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/where-are-irans-power-plants-that-trump-has-threatened-to-destroy?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/637429-iran-night-demonstrations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5514373/irgc-selat-hormuz-tak-akan-pernah-kembali-ke-kondisi-sebelumnya
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-madschid-chademi-geheimdienstchef-revolutionsgarden
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4109748-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-novorossiysk-oil-terminal-and-be12-amphibious-aircraft.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224226NBH
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQMnpFd1FWT0JmYXNZMmd5MTVzdm84bnEtS1N3Wm44a0Nrb2NCV2NXeG5DY2hsSWJYYWFFYjB5SksyMWNfdEJPQXhka1hDTGxPUGQzaWNVSEd1bkt4UWJUTEFsTEJFeDhiT1ZTT0dRejV6M2NfMTh6TWxDN2M5YU85UWR3aFU3Q2RpcTRQTHZyYnBMT3hIMk5jdnlvMHphWFUyZXZvMU5YS1I1V3JlOVQ3S1RR0gG3AUFVX3lxTFBTWEEtS0pNcGZsWUdRUHVDQlJLSVJMM0gtc3ZZWldYOHZ3b1l6QUltMjlNcXBKbUxIVlFDQi1PUjd4WnFmWFp3aFZCemhwcEtVdnJsX1ppeGZGUjFtTXAzUkw1Ql9RYS0xc1J3VnFDREFxbmgtcGctQjBTWC04RXNsRWFIZk9hYm5Wa0NDM0NmdndsamxjXy1FakpSYW5hQTk
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5514365/as-israel-serang-30-universitas-di-iran-sejak-awal-konflik-28-februari
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/ukraine-strikes-russian-black-sea-energy-hub-novorossiysk?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599512.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406235051YOT
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260407000948Iak
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPeEtPRS00QThJQ3gxWUM1MXpENklRekdZWTlsZ1l0ejN6NFlwaVZ5RG9HdmdoQmxBalFHM1FlRWZfS3BMLURnSS1sc2VOUXF2OW03S3lYSW5vb0ZRVVdmX29FUkNSd3MtVzJoWjRmd2laVW13R0xCam9ESTRmZDZtUWtvcTBXaDBrVWVwWTFPOUEtT1M3MzRIS1hnTG1BMEFrX0VqRXR5azRzQlBxZm15eFktTFVYYk9lVTFoR1Vab3R0STdoLXc?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR2JlSVpraHJZeDN5MFFBOHRMLWk0VEt5NEFPSnVwa1pCTHI0eDJ3Q0tiREdpSzRGYmlCcm9wQ3pDX3lkVHZGejYwMGxDYXVnZU5OMFBEYTIyc3RDRTBWNnpfQ0phb1NMM2Nrd3JJWkw3QkVKX3J1LVRPZUZSTGtJNUhYNlBPYjBQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/6/in-maps-and-photos-five-iranian-civilian-bridges-at-risk-of-us-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224344Cz8
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxQYkg1WnlBNjRXLXdHclNNd1pyRi10LUt6VlF1TDB0UHdqUF9FYUhFQjVmZ0doQ2prUnBBYUk4a3JjalFxYjUyZmEyVk4zejR3ZDlERnM0RTJfbVVQaHBkbjYtV1VpMkRKeEYtVmdWeEh4Y3pKYjNIZ0o1WXNSMzVjU2VQc1MzUFNrUEpQS2Zacmxod1Z0LUllVUd0c3FuSUp4QWxSMFVPY21tYTI4elBMSm0yTlN1WU1L0gG-AUFVX3lxTE1sU2pETk50dU5nclhCYndfWllvTXkxNk9lcjFHdnJJclItU2hUWUlMWXRBSW96R3lNdW9fSTVNaEVuZTF5cWJacjNFMWc3b1J4RFhNZGRXS0lmRjBIWENVQnFkUXJySWI5SmR6cXozVWMyYWRTZDNyTDhZMEt0YWlZajJ0UGdGaE1IRGJMckRjYzdtTnhWclc3bXR
2026-04-06
2026-04-06
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策转向军事威胁，可能强化制裁或直接干预，以迫使开放霍尔木兹海峡。
- OPEC+增产决策显示产油国试图平衡市场，但地缘政治风险可能限制效果。
- 伊朗可能继续不对称战略，关闭海峡和袭击能源设施，以施加压力。
关联路径
伊朗冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀上升
美伊军事对抗 / 中东不稳定 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 供应增加预期 / 油价波动 / 风险资产调整
地缘政治紧张 / 全球增长担忧 / 股市下跌和债券收益率下降
来源
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406075350GcU
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/05/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-donald-trump-repousse-l-ultimatum-adresse-a-mardi-soir-vous-allez-voir-des-ponts-et-des-centrales-electriques-s-effondrer-a-travers-tout-le-pays_6676633_3210.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-04/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/6/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-trumps-tuesday-deadline-on-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9xQUhSalZYRUpHRTR4a1dtUktxeU5ULTRnNS1vR0RONkxhaTNFZzBwOVBQbTk5Y2QxbkJoczlnaWZBcmdkWlN1cEI3WWN6T2U1ZFRwYnVUZDBWZw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4109433-tramp-ogolosiv-novij-krajnij-termin-dla-iranu-sob-rozblokuvati-ormuzku-protoku.html
- [7] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13b44e4d4d89b5e8b4587.html
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426028
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/opec-foerderung-erdoel-iran-krise
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599292.shtml
- [11] https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story?id=131744086
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0q6wdzp1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/ofitsialno-ukraina-nanesla-udar-po-zavodu-lukoila-bolee-chem-v-1000-km-ot-linii-soprikosnoveniya
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406091907xC4
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNa0YxRFgzNTB6RTIxbVFKbURISmpWM2R4Y1N0VUlzamhJQjU0dUdyU1YyMmJIRHpiREoxSzJlN0hFanE0OENZcWZ4WUtRVnhVRmtLb011eGxIWFd4bUd0eGhXdUptaVFjOC1sWTdsWnF3ZkdKQjdLallNZXVsOGM5SFRtVmtEWkdCRE5jcnlBU0htNndib0V0aGtXUmtIRGpiQU5pZFJJaENtWFVzZXlCX0VoZHFBdThxZHozSUR3RzhBZGM?oc=5
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13870e9cf4a79038b457f.html
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/donald-trump-iran-ultimatum-hormus
2026-04-05
2026-04-05
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步增加军事开支，推动创纪录国防预算通过。
- 美联储面临通胀压力，因地缘冲突推高油价，货币政策或趋紧。
- 中国可能出台反制措施，应对美国科技限制，影响贸易政策。
- 欧洲可能尝试调解美伊冲突，但效果有限，地区外交压力增大。
- 伊朗军方回应美国总统特朗普的48小时通牒，表示将坚定捍卫民族权利并让侵略者付出代价。
- 特朗普向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒，要求开放霍尔木兹海峡，同时美国继续搜寻失踪飞行员。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
贸易制裁 / 全球供应链风险 / 股市波动
国防支出增加 / 财政赤字扩大 / 利率压力
来源
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/watch-trump-claims-many-of-irans-military-leaders-killed-in-massive-strike-shares-video/articleshow/130029871.cms
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598980.shtml
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPOTB5bHJDZGp3M2ZVSUpJeGZnTDFvOGFhMDh6ODlDTlotQnlwVnJ4d1lPZTZCSV9CblY3V1hSeEFpOGZHVWViUEJYeVVPc0h2d3UwOUN0YXJTMG1fWm8xOTRhOG1Ld3U1eWdZY0RvX1VhbDB6RWRSZzh2YnJ6M05JQWVzMWRHWFdWQUtVdExRcU9jZ0ZPUDhJaDJkTGJIVXBFLUU3TXpaakpfSFVYOWFxYzVlTW5KTEk1ek9Zc3ZuVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429643/hari-kelam-as-israel-saat-2-jet-tempur-dan-3-drone-dilumpuhkan-iran
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/ataque-de-israel-a-petroqumicas-no-ir-deixa-ao-menos-cinco-mortos-e-170-feridos.ghtml
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-proposes-expanding-chinese-141748633.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y90jl8veyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/04/inflacao-dos-eua-deve-disparar-na-primeira-leitura-desde-a-guerra-com-o-ira.ghtml
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260404-trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-a-deal-as-search-continues-for-missing-us-pilot
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/4/tehran-psychiatric-hospital-not-usable-after-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-deal-or-face-hell/article70824622.ece
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/white-house-asks-record-breaking-15-trillion-defense/story?id=131683487
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598976.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNWkNya1ZKR25aN2tadGxuN25YX3JyY29KTGprQXpPY3ZydVBaUmdjRFdCWko4NnE1QUp5d2V6UFM3TkZRZG5ZZ1RHeUgzT1ZxS0RkcnFfcW42LTlId2xUWXNKcW9JX1BHR1pwWFEwVWNZdjMxV1FUNnI1R2V0N0ZreElnSnFVZGhXbFBVSGdERFlnSVB5NHk2UmFkeE5ZRjI3MFQ0?oc=5
- [15] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/nova-etapa-de-ataques-dos-eua-ao-ira-deve-usar-quase-todo-o-estoque-de-misseis-de-cruzeiros-disponivel-no-pais.ghtml
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/universities-hit-as-us-israel-ramp-up-attacks-on-irans-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429487/tuan-rumah-pangkalan-militer-as-dapat-ultimatum-dari-iran
- [18] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/israel-se-prepara-para-atacar-instalaes-de-energia-do-ir-e-aguarda-aprovao-dos-eua-diz-fonte.ghtml
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2k1dgz142o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-04-04
2026-04-04
进展要点
- 美联储可能因就业数据强劲而维持或加强鹰派立场，加息预期升温。
- 美国政府面临信任危机，军事政策可能更激进，增加地缘政治不确定性。
- 多国可能采取行动重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，以缓解全球石油供应压力。
- 冲突升级可能促使国际社会加大外交斡旋，但短期内难有突破。
- 美国3月份就业市场表现超出预期，新增就业岗位数量意外增长。
- 美国劳工部发布3月份就业数据，非农就业人数新增17.8万人，失业率降至4.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球贸易中断 / 经济放缓和市场避险
美国就业数据强劲 / 美联储加息预期 / 美元升值
地缘紧张 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/637187-iran-war-us-oil-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758305/iran-gulf-targets-us-israel-strike-war
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/03/inteligncia-dos-eua-alerta-que-improvvel-que-ir-reduza-bloqueio-de-ormuz-em-breve-dizem-fontes.ghtml
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNTXZ4cTczUHBOZUIxaEcyYTBrOEF3bm1YZ2RyLVVRNGl6N2pKdElTWHZQN1Zyd3FyS2E4Ym9fZTBTUzYtSnRvaC00ZzRYcWVkRHV4T0lRUml0cndLeFZYanN5N3ZveXJweXFMZXVsN2VvZkJWQUJGeWxIa3JXbWZEd3hqYmJNXzN4MWdISm9qcGNsZGtf?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-04/10598639.shtml
- [6] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/03/69cff685e9cf4a23268b4578.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/3/will-force-be-used-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108963-vdalosa-vratuvati-odnogo-z-pilotiv-amerikanskogo-vinisuvaca-zbitogo-nad-iranom-zmi.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260404015744gyX
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cly68eg7px6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-fighter-jet-iran-raf-b1277613.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-one-downed-us-fighter-jet-pilot-rescued/live-76649854?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://elpais.com/mexico/2026-04-03/estados-unidos-suma-inesperadamente-178000-puestos-de-trabajo-en-marzo.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/3/survivors-of-iran-bridge-attack-recall-terror-of-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNV2k3RzVva0hYbF9UM20yYzBfaVlBOHRVQ1BSQ3NWUU54MlJFM0M4WHRoUm1zSThjUVlxZTNKSnEwNzNlZklDT0RhSVJzanlJdDNoLXNDcGdYT2RxMVZsVTIyUVRJZUZ2Z2xSdm9WVEtvM1dfSkJuV19uQ25HTGNRZ3JaSDVWb1ljQ0EyNg?oc=5
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10598635.shtml
- [17] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758492/iran-us-fighter-jet
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4108911-polsa-pidijmala-vinisuvaci-cerez-rosijskij-masovanij-obstril-ukraini.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403235949ayF
2026-04-03
2026-04-03
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步加征关税或调整贸易政策，聚焦药品和金属领域
- 欧盟将辩论对俄制裁调整，匈牙利等成员国推动取消能源制裁
- 英国与盟友或推出针对伊朗的新制裁措施，以维护霍尔木兹海峡航运
- 全球央行面临油价上涨带来的通胀压力，可能推迟降息或收紧政策
- 美国贸易代表办公室继续推动市场准入，但新关税可能抵消进展
- 国际组织如联合国呼吁停火，但外交努力面临挑战
关联路径
伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡干扰 / 石油供应减少 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀上升
美国加征药品关税 / 贸易紧张加剧 / 供应链中断 / 避险情绪升温 / 股市下跌
中东冲突升级 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
制裁讨论 / 航运风险 / 能源成本上升 / 经济增长放缓 / 央行政策调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/2/oil-shock-triggers-global-price-spikes-as-iran-war-drags-on?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260403090743K1l
- [3] https://globalnews.ca/news/11757640/donald-trump-tariffs-pharmacutical-drugs-steel-aluminum-copper
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d0md89v2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10597911.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWkhISW1vdTUyWGpsZXhEVXNmeXJxbEVIeFFsaGcwY01WWmRiaUZHYUJ3TE5zX0s3OUZIVmY4dGNkNFIxZ2wtd2tFWV9vdWg3TkttWGZBTWYxcklKNk90VE1uZHhkS0ZyX1JvYTdmYUtsQVlSWEoyc004NmhSTWlNcmx6SVlrUTVx?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/637100-orban-eu-ditch-russia-sanctions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260403/662cabeae8c34e56b0bd2499be4bf50c/c.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-04/usa-zoelle-donald-trump-arzneimittel-stahl
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/02/trump-says-us-destroyed-irans-tallest-bridge-tehran-attacks-american-fighter-jets-at-jordan-airbase
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4108544-un-secretarygeneral-warns-world-on-edge-of-wider-war.html
- [12] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/liberation-day-one-year-later-protecting-american-jobs-and-delivering-greater-market-access-american
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3425775
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yvette-cooper-iran-foreign-secretary-strait-of-hormuz-tehran-b1277524.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403091250TSJ
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/trump-unveils-100-percent-tariff-on-drugs-to-push-for-pharmaceutical-deals?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-03/10597907.shtml
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/02/100-prozent-auf-arznei-us-regierung-erhebt-neue-zoelle
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQczRQTWhBdHIxRWliUHFoUElFTUZPR19PTC1DbG0xN01sOWpKWmFtQkxnZ2NZMkMxMTlSSm8tZ3dsRi05bWNtOWl3R05ORTN4LTQwVXAtVnI1OWY0Y0JSU1dTaFh3d0xKZGh0ekdiOWJBOVUwSm40QUc5LTFvV3hGem4zcTNRZGpMUGQzMEo1b3hiLUtwQWw0WGxWUzlzTFVNdlBnaEV3MmQxWlBSaXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlg4ejJxSEZqeUlZX1RaNmdJc21NWXRwUXFLRV8yWGJZc0hTblBoa1hEY0ZmV2FiNzI1S1BDTGdxaUl5RUR6YVpoMGZ5cUJscWJlbS1OcE1BN1FXVTFBSU1Ubm5ycVQxeGZfbUR3aHl0ekZOS0NrYXFWVVc5TXotY2FITFFHSWM5cmxzVWxXT2IwSVdFb0EzQi1BcEF2dEhwX3Y2V1V
- [20] https://globalnews.ca/news/11756857/gas-prices-easter-long-weekend
2026-04-02
2026-04-02
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续施压伊朗，同时寻求外交解决但信号混乱
- 欧洲国家可能加强能源安全措施，并协调应对霍尔木兹海峡危机
- 全球可能协调释放战略石油储备以稳定油价
- 北约内部紧急会议讨论特朗普言论，可能导致防御政策调整
- 美国对乌克兰军援政策可能受地缘博弈影响
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
特朗普北约言论 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动
能源危机 / 西方经济衰退风险 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
俄乌冲突外溢 / 地缘风险加剧 / 黄金和美元上涨
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/2/iran-war-live-trump-to-address-nation-tehran-denies-seeking-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/33177de39fe3445f9a61ae9037bade69/c.html
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260401/9c763c423582452e84358382a1d6fbf7/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78l70g124jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/5c76f8eba9eb47b092d05f092929af41/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/e724e267b7fe4019b374dadc569c27b4/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/a2fef62739bd4b41a0bea9e0cf206c9a/c.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2489v97842o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-signals-iran-war-could-end-soon-but-gives-mixed-signals-on-how
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-zrobyv-zaiavu-shchodo-vykhodu-ssha-z-nato
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/sohodni-dovoli-nasychenyi-dyplomatychnyi-den-zelenskyi-nazvav-masovanu-ataku-rf-rosiiskoiu-vidpoviddiu-na-dyplomatiiu
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE4xb3ZESG5sSVBvUldEcWdRUXVkc3d0QmtzTkJNOVR2bWl4MGVxZVNmQWhROEhoVEVvYkFYdVFUajBzaWFPc2w4RHNaY2t6WDM5bmo3SUdWV3U4NzFjcjA3OEp6UnEyV1ZlUEZ1YWpwaV83VXkzQjl0Z3F4eXNtQ1E?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQbXpVX3k4YXdlNko5NE1jZkFoRGNnTXVGcnhPbDJ1dXdoQVBLeml2bmRKMEhuUXhzTzhoZ2Nuck12ZWg5Ti1jaVpXNjI0dHVsdnpNaGZUejU1V1FWaFUyRjJQUFE5cktuMDhoVFhYcy1wbWRYLWRsc0dURDlHa0Y2RTBHQ2FVSGg1VGE3amVKbXRqczBKT3ZyY0Zrc2pZeWhoVnpz0gGoAUFVX3lxTE9Tc1NqbERCYXZDY0F0cU93NmR2S2xfMWRnZkRHSllKcHdYaHY1bVNva25XSGIybkhPQVlLZjAwTkNIYzFrYUY1YWsyTV9NRTU4OWptUjhFY3NQZTRGdkVYOE5LWHA4bmZvU0NSNVRoME5fV1cxZmgtYnFrbUlPTVRJdG1lVHcxNmdZUEktTkZhWG1jOUoxdmJrR3UtVlhFRVVDUEJmSi1TNw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108174-tramp-vistupit-sogodni-vveceri-zi-zvernennam-pro-peremogu-u-vijni-proti-iranu-politico.html
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOVnBCaHJjSm1wOHRTS2c1UmhYWXlyeFBwUWxmUTdUenh3NGxKeEJRcURKVEFjWDBwdXJvZHQ5NWFvNTBHNGZrNXFWdjR6Q2R0MDlicHUtYkVIWGtYaGVKZnVvcmZDWWhrcDhqaTBqMFd6ZzdROVFxNjRuZHBIVVdfb2c0aUNQbThDREc3Z1VfTm8yZ3ZzS0lXT0c0VkZvLVBwU2RDNkU3b0FFa3daY25ISg?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQd3pIQndwVTNkZFgzZUVqQmFldUQ4Q2RvR0Y4dkdnb3Z5NGloNllJWlUzY0QtYldPT05tSjYya0hxMmVaY20walNxeWZ5X0FOWkc1QnFlMWV3eERxVGZpSXlXbmZoS2thaVhTQ1FnU3NfeGlMeHNld1lvUTdmSTNyNNIBhgFBVV95cUxNblp6MFR0azlvSWlfOXZYSlQ0Q0hsT1lkS1BXN2lTODlHMmdENFdKZWZ4Zlk1VGhpWUtRamNjaFRScG9ycWU5Q0JLTDhvM3lXbkxVWTNISjRSVUF3cjJjeVpRUDlNdWdLU1NZY0NDYlQ3UUhXbV9GVVVkSjJGSGFaSV82WF9ZZw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOQUtoOFhoajBOVWFhRUhJc3pxREFDQUt4ZzRJRmFXSHc4OE1WcHRvWElsMTdiVUtZeFNzZGFmOW95c2ZGcWRFRURoVTlvd1FqeUNDNWZYMjBjTURmUWFJNGpZaTBwaFZYNzFqc1FTdkdRT1RqVDBUc3JGOTh4OFprWWdSajlxS0NDRmJjUy01blVUX29reTRNZEM2cjFJMTUxaWlQWTVmMA?oc=5
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/ahead-of-national-address-trump-says-strait-of-hormuz-must-be-open-free-and-clear-before-ceasefire-talks-161325922.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/smoke-and-embers-seen-over-irans-isfahan-after-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sohodni-oholosyt-pro-zavershennia-viiny-z-iranom-ta-vysune-ultymatum-nato-politico
- [21] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/rssia-diz-que-assumiu-o-controle-total-da-regio-de-luhansk-no-leste-da-ucrnia.ghtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOZms5Smk3QThZbjZrNndNN0JzVHVXWlBZZlRiRmdxQWNfMVJheFhOX0VHWFlJSFljTG1FUnFXbFR5WkQ5a1JjU0Z5ZmpiRUNiTlJIVDN4QXpUdmplMkZBNlVPeXl2NzYxNDMyalJiOVJ1a3V2ZVJkM1hlZTdILVZfdDM0ZXlCT0RuM05SUmVrbmYxY3J3N0w5LXMxOGFyeENlWTFQYVZJVkdhQ0w2eDRkaG5KSG5IaWd5U3hQSFRxWm8?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNcjRCbG93VGRqVlVZeWpyLWtxcXJSbEtFX0d1VE5PQ2VnaGYyVktxMDhFVlQ0a1A4QnlhUjU2SVlSVWlucU5QdkEzZWFMblZQcmVmYVBhN2N4dm52SXRCS0dYZGdmRWdfazNqUU8xZVY0TUY1R3N5czc3MXdWQ2pYLVhWZmlTblIxbm55RFhTdk1FS1Z6THE4MTRTOVp4aWtGdDg3RFhpZEVGaHNmRVB6RHc4ZEVjb2prcXFNa01OVDJFUnY1aEE?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/central-israel-hit-by-one-of-irans-largest-missile-barrages-in-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://unn.ua/news/rosiia-vidpovila-masovanoiu-atakoiu-droniv-na-propozytsiiu-ukrainy-pro-velykodnie-peremyria-zelenskyi
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/636985-starmer-albanese-iran-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBCel9UNjBCMnFjc2tsQVBmVFpSX3BPbjh3bzVFRFc3QklvQmpaRUZiNGxpZmVqb1VQM0hGRWJ4NWFscHVrSGNtNzV4VDZPLUpiTklnZkVOUzZDUQ?oc=5
- [28] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/trump-ameaca-cortar-armas-para-ucrania-se-europa-nao-apoiar-coalizao-para-ormuz.ghtml
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636981-iran-war-us-israel-trump/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/01/nx-s1-5770093/trump-address-iran-war
2026-04-01
2026-04-01
进展要点
- 欧洲央行可能因通胀数据而调整货币政策路径，加息预期升温
- 美国贸易政策转向，设立退款门户返还特朗普关税以缓解贸易紧张
- 美国政府寻求在伊朗战争中降低军事卷入，但面临盟友压力和国内政治动态
- 欧盟呼吁减少航空出行和推广远程办公，以应对石油危机引发的经济挑战
关联路径
中东地缘政治事件 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策反应
北约联盟动态 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产流向
能源价格变化 / 消费者信心和经济活动 / 企业盈利和市场情绪
来源
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/us-israel-launch-major-attacks-as-iranian-authorities-maintain-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4c4cac52441b485dbd6a8df270ff155b/c.html
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/38b5771ae34c407f81670651669100ff/c.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/732d80efd7f9462f8d3b745e1ee64101/c.html
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4fa12e0e7874490a86812ff9c4188bb1/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/18d6a28a2bc847bdb7d6e8b8bdc7b7fe/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/8f2ffd6270b542fba98a9d8cbae5a0b7/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/048988fff40141b7aecf9cd2c5373dfb/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/55e6f8748c3a4d8faeec9c26b56c1f89/c.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/trump-says-us-will-be-leaving-iran-in-two-to-three-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/636893-nato-without-america-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/after-strait-of-hormuz-opens-turmoil-would-still-last-months-analysts-say?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/eu-warns-oil-and-gas-prices-wont-quickly-return-to-normal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOdDBCeWVSazlVOWZVR2JNQkVxbTloSjAtOUZtaDBadkwzNW9zZHcyWHNQaFhqNGJYQm1kMlp6UEkxLWRaU1FBLVBmYUNMMEs3UUFSejJpVjMzclFkcjl2Yl8wZ3p5a0N5Tm9TWGNyS3htQ3haRFVlb1g4T3V2ejJGSHhIZlExR01kNDFHU0tydk9BWWswV0R6QjJVWFp0VnhLWVhpdXVmN3A1elpyRXdoQXRKTGJ4dw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPTGI1RDRzSnZ0MW9jTlhyd0tGNFdjQk5EQkwtS3U3UjJXUzFxR05NRVlmT01WLUtEeGlTZzhiUExVbEpENElQT05YckFqcS1URTRZQUZtMzZ1UF9YSXFUYVNlT2ttbjRaTFlhUXVkQmJHVV9oUUFtNjA2N1VzVFpOS0QxNFkzeWozYmFOYWx0bFZ3YzJESUtxZ2RfREtYR2RiaWFQS2VBRzdhcUpUNTBVRGQyMkYweHFHd0Ew?oc=5
- [16] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-rushes-to-set-up-refund-portal-to-pay-back-166bn-in-trump-tariffs
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE53b3lVZW5GdzFVOU5YSGZoOFJDVWNORVl2SHZZTjBQNjhlY05tY2R6RzdpcF9yWWxEMUZ4MllSNU92SDhnRkQ3clBsZU5lV3ltcVA5YllGWVlOemV1TzlEZ2stNk5XMU1uZ3hsVTMzQXJOWFN5eEVmS2F1SkVjQms?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQTEJJSWs3ZWoxYi1rSWs2YXd3VWFMNGs0UEtERkM5OVcwNm44V3dxcVd0anUzb3A1SFZ0MndLU3dHYnROR1FaekxYNDRPaUlMTUQtbHlFWDZXajhWeXRKRmJfUDVnSTYwSDdBX3h6eHVLNncxU2NsSS1zYjcwUzd4MnZwMTdqM1BwaTNNR3BOcEQwdw?oc=5
- [19] https://oglobo.globo.com/blogs/miriam-leitao/post/2026/03/crise-do-petroleo-uniao-europeia-ja-pede-menos-viagens-de-aviao-e-mais-home-office.ghtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/economia/2026-03-31/wall-street-sube-y-el-petroleo-cae-ante-la-disposicion-de-iran-de-negociar-el-fin-del-conflicto.html
- [21] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/we-changed-face-of-middle-east-netanyahu-says-war-on-iran-not-over
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/636876-putin-steps-up-iran-war-live-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/31/hiring-in-the-us-drops-to-pandemic-lows-as-job-market-under-trump-stagnates?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/31/whats-behind-donald-trumps-interest-in-irans-kharg-island?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/china-pakistan-outline-five-point-plan-to-end-us-israel-war-on-iran
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE90dHZRdWlORGY0UVFheG5CTUVaYXhmZ2xsdHpzTERQaUMtUjllc0lXMC1udVJMTlJFVTB5ckljUGx5RFZuREtab2JVcVRRNDBiUi1mV3o0NV9FWGlsRHlRY0lXNGFZRjA?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9MYWZqOWJKMmJsOWl2ZmtOcG1qUHlLWk02b1NzUlFvU2Z0ZVRTaFpYZHRZX01URFM2OExMUmNQTGRWU1NFNlQxMkxpa292TDRYbWJMSGw1R2htR3lpT1l0WHVIY2hkNHN4OWxXckcyanNNdzhlMkRla3IzTXp2YVk?oc=5
- [28] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-plunges-stocks-soar-after-iranian-president-offers-first-signs-of-willingness-to-end-war-with-us-183158792.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNTkNSR1NUcVd4NEkyRXN6TTVBZFVvNEFKZHRJc0RqMjBmVTR6eXBRVVFKeDcwLXA3YmlrQUYxZDlFa1hSb2h1TS03LXVnNy1SellPczFibzVEWUVfSW1XLThHZkZnWG42WENKN1F0NWtMNTJ3TEotaE5GbFdiVXVjNHdrUkhXaWl2V0pwWU5ucDJoRWs5VUlPVHFvT1k5UTcxMWNXV0FjX2I2b19WMXc?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNZnctT3ZsYkZIVFJPUXNFb1pvWDRxWDJxWjlkM0JmZHlOenltb2dnZVQyYUVCaXE1aVowZkowSlA1eUNRa0RuNGhYc2tsUzF4b0xiWlRJcGRCVTRQV3poUnk2Z1czX2VXMEptUkhQRnF3Ml9mcVNNWDJnUWxsaFNVN1BzMG9qM0xfcTdPbUd6QXVGX2hqY2tEWURGamdjS0NlV1JUeTIwbVJXbUJfMTdvYUhBMFlRZw?oc=5
2026-03-31
2026-03-31
进展要点
- G7正协调全球政策应对能源危机，可能推出联合干预措施稳定油价。
- 特朗普政府设4月6日为谈判最后期限，政策走向取决于伊朗回应。
- 法国呼吁各国不要禁止碳氢化合物出口，以缓解供应紧张。
- 美国可能让阿拉伯国家分担战争成本，影响地区联盟动态。
- 央行可能面临通胀压力，政策收紧预期上升。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀
避险情绪上升 / 股市下跌 / 安全资产如黄金和美元需求增加
G7政策协调 / 能源干预措施 / 油价稳定预期 / 市场情绪缓和
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险下降 / 石油供应恢复 / 通胀压力缓解
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/a4156a8c98604fbaaee1ed080d686a4e/c.html
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/9f3ed09e09c8421bb08ee61c114fa897/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595633.shtml
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331060611dr8
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-security-chief-larijani-more-key-iranian-leaders-killed-in-us-israeli-strikes/articleshow/129907599.cms
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-30/10595608.shtml
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/f4f265702ff24d1292cbd62c8636324f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/b7c8e9000fbd4cfc871051de1ed7b6f9/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/0b757beb8ee44c1186169d4b984f3d83/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/2d2a9d5efb5446f99f6a0040090631cb/c.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/31/iran-war-live-kuwaiti-oil-tanker-hit-in-dubai-port-3-un-troops-killed?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/al-jazeeras-full-interview-with-marco-rubio-on-us-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260330-crise-%C3%A9nerg%C3%A9tique-le-g7-%C3%A0-la-hauteur
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260331002400320
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331091039Faa
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595636.shtml
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/us/politics/us-missile-strike-iran-sports-hall-school.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331082958BSb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603310824239gJ
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595631.shtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPZE1Oc2xwRE93TmlxNGxnNFZldTMzS2RuNG9KZHhTT2o2OVczQlhvR1pBZnJJNXlRSWtndDFlbFY4alFoMThScHZQcHJkcTlSMTJZTnJOcmlZTVNqcU1MdDlPR0ZaWmpMSUt1NE1pY3NFbXdZaWlzdlgyQ0hfSk5MbDhJMGVLUVRmVENQYllYYWhmSnd6NWdUYnJ0S1NRVHdMVlZyZzEzT2g2ekhxVTU2U0dlT0s?oc=5
- [23] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-us-spezialeinheiten-im-nahen-osten-angekommen-a-f1df0f24-9734-4bc2-b88c-caa4761ed54d
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075620sy9
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075817J9n
- [26] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595626.shtml
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBDeXpnM3NIMmhOUGR6Z0o0eU42Mm5JZURDT0hOdko2M05KRHpZeWJMdXNaMnVWeDd0U1RLVnh3VzhOOG9pakVwZnVENHFSYXhRbk1Fam5zM0JjSEpNWGxPcTBFMHlIcUZ2N2c?oc=5
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260330-contre-la-crise-de-l-%C3%A9nergie-un-g7-in%C3%A9dit-avec-banque-mondiale-fmi-aie
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/trump-eyes-arab-nations-to-fund-iran-war-amid-peace-talks-with-tehran/articleshow/129910962.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331072941ROe
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
进展要点
- 美国增强中东军事部署，政策方向不明，可能涉及地面行动。
- 地区外交调解如巴基斯坦会晤，旨在缓解紧张局势。
- 美联储政策信号将影响市场情绪，需关注官员讲话。
- 全球贸易政策可能受冲突影响，调整供应链。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
军事行动扩大 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升
外交调解努力 / 缓解紧张 / 风险情绪改善 / 市场反弹
来源
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPemo4aG92YmVObXh2c2lZeXpZdlFZUUR0S0VEUUF1TWdObEdCMnBOaGJQa2FWS1FjTGRISXhMcjM1bXVpalpPSW9uNG10aC1fNWJ4ay10eHhwZ1JlSGZ6ZUVFSFZqNkJQR3lOMGpQb3Mwbl9qWC1QQUhWTzJiTklIaF9VdlBzMkd6bk1wam1KMGhqX1YzZjVHcWlHTmg0UFByZHRZ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE80aEc4OWU4TGtJMUw2MTRhWHo1SDgwdVpnTzJ3OEVRT2FGWkVxeHlhNlVxSXI3WnJyRDYtRmhFa0NRdHcwUTBHWTNzYzZoMU5CVEVPT2l5VDZvdVpsTWlLSnBpYU5wLWlEdFh6QUdmVmlKTy1zbFVjTHA3Zw?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE5rUGkxamwyaHNNNGJ4M2ZZNXVpOHN2X0hDMG00dnVMS0J1SXd2WHFKc2gzMVZZLXpSSzJ2QTN2SllBcEJZU05CaTk3aE5TS0QwNUxKeDc0ek1XZmQxSkhYOFdlaWQxQmpqOWItUDhzWQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260329-world-trade-is-struggling-as-war-in-iran-continues
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQcjBLWHhQcG96UjU0RHh4a0JvRW5oWWZ5X3lFYzJkLW4tT3RjZXdkejJWcERZX01xd0wycUZuQVFCanZzUHIxVTVUSEx3blg0TWRMYnlod2pTRk5TT0wyVEhQVkF5eThBclFGeEdPNGF3aG5KTVRkdkpiMUJwb3VYc2ZJQlRBYXRRcFJUZ1NIc0hzcGNVZHRSYXlpSnlkanFtWHfSAacBQVVfeXFMUG1NWFY3ZUJrRl8xMGh1TTlxaEN3aEtmY2x6ODQyV1JYQ0NFVEdocGZyY0x3YXVXbjVDRW5fOXFPemhhWDRmbFlLTWhydHdBSWx6SmdoTktUQzFLT2RPRVJXVmQ5ek12QWp2UnplZ2kxTmVVa2ZWb2o4NHNsVVVhM0I3dE5DS05vd2VrUHVvamhRa3c3NWptcy1yRlI0SWUwM3l6WDdKems?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/one-month-of-israel-us-war-on-iran-a-timeline/article70800535.ece
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106917-uae-intercepts-58-missiles-and-drones-launched-from-iran.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1xbHZQRWhXdGJmZ2lKM3NuUEEzWEVGN09pQzF5ZnZFX2I2bVlkYlNNc2ZWcmw4T2FUZlZuRVNJRHNuTXFqbHB3YVRzNkNjQnBtOXEwY1BvVVUzbGdLVWZySE8ySFdYNnNaY0JFeWFR?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-missile-hit-neot-hovav-162832864.html
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-attack-saudi-injures-least-224939787.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-warns-us-against-ground-assault/live-76581165?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-houthis-claim-2nd-attack-on-israel-in-24-hours/live-76573681?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-reports-fire-in-new-ukrainian-strike-on-major-baltic-port/article70800282.ece
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge01w2dxe0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp86yrq5jy7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/29/iran-hits-industrial-zone-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260329-moyen-orient-washington-muscle-sa-pr%C3%A9sence-militaire
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106892-war-update-enemy-launches-66-attacks-pokrovsk-and-kostiantynivka-sectors-see-fiercest-battles.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNeERGX0FoN1B4bXRIUmktRHRLZnNOUnpha2tpYk5fZW92Z3FNVXRkZEpYTng1NzdRTFFPS0tKQ2dtYVlsLWpScnJXem1EMG1KT0kyVmhJVkNvQWJIZW9BYTVHZFBaWmNWYW9HQnQ4R2hzWWRNWG52V1NNVjBMQktiOHF0X0RaWS1jS3hjUURGakluVWJkWWZydGtILUctSzNqa1o0UjduQWxUd1BYUFlyT9IBtgFBVV95cUxOYlRSZkhFVHNCMFI2ZlJGMXJfcXktNEJVa3hhcGJCZDh3NExYdVViQ1RpWXZkVkx3SHE4RmtaSUd5TUdVWWN0NEExT29QNklNbmZ2MHlLckxMSGtuajlIMjFaMVI1cEpISzF1S0QydGRiTU5PZjNKaFpxcnlRXzl1dkg4QThCdFlxQkhjT0ZEWi1SZVo2Sy1fbVQ5VTJxZ0FvczB
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxNWFhyQ1p0emoyTk1xOWpzMEZhZGxpd0pPVGVva0xiUFpnRkpCSHhnU2Q3VVNRNmFCbHhZaFlCMHBacXZWYVpLOVVlb2MzNnFnZVZYWVAzWThNdjBlYV90Mm8wMUdFal9hc2ZhN3lkcks1UDg5M1Z2WGdaU1U2RVVNQjhOcGZaTmJXQzhrUklWTi05VnE1YlBqbTdNZ1RFbFhDUG44LUFTV2NMTWhheW1PbXZlXzlqREhUbVV3ZlN1SGhBRk1NWXJDd3p2dXI5ei0xTUttTVdrMFd5YW9wM0k5T2JYV2p4VkVwejN6LVV6MG5Nb0k?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/houthis-open-new-front-in-iran-war-will-yemeni-group-block-bab-al-mandeb?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxPZ2lfV3pPSXZNdG5HUE10NDE1YThZZDVFakdkb3lfa3UyLTdSRHhhX3RmS2VuZ1U2dC0tSjU3dXlBMDg3Y0hWanh6WW14RXRjZy1TS3ZFcGloNGFya1FTZHNvc1Jzc25RVTJnajVTTHJkZ244SVJiM0d5NTNPYWg3Y2E3a25mVmUtckoxa0FCRG4zNk9FYUtCMTRneHpDRTNxR3lfczFZSUtaM1FHMUIxVlFLZ2VjWXJLejJxQU1EZHM5dFNPMnp2cjJKYUJwWjg?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPMVhGcGtmWFFLbGxsLUpUY2tlNUZablRoMVhObzdQYlFBWTVmZGVyc3NaZGRFanVKVGxBX0YtNGRKblBKUjM5c0xqaW1LZW9nSFJTQXdJVTlqRDg3cVd3TXdjV2RaeFdBR2RLYkRpRURGczJwX2dNeGNwLWd2RElfY3N3Z1hGMk1H0gGLAUFVX3lxTE80Yk5sMER1YkxQaTQzTDczdHV0WkF6ek55eVhjQkJpdXFQdzNHbnU4N19wQ3c3UWl3aWdpMU4yQ2UtY1llclRpLVpwX0IwOWQ0dENTSzZTZDhWc1pyTTRhVjBacmpIUDg4VEl2QlJxQzhPZDhWa2FlRTk5Nl9ncjktVTZKWTN2b1ctc1U?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOSXE4WVFndEZQVWNOQjh2UkVNV2FIaTQ3MERlWEtuN192WG1pRnlsVE9zMVFHUVRncDZmX0NKb204STYwNXQ3LV9HQm51c2thVVJLWWExNGx6U2pnd2QyMnpPb3BRMlMzMC1SS1N1NTFVOVo1UWE2TDRYbWJCU0tXRXFnV2pCb0l2Z3pB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-3-500-us-troops-arrive-in-the-region
- [27] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-crisis-mediators-gather-in-pakistan-for-talks-on-ending-month-long-iran-war/articleshow/129881093.cms
- [28] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-silver-outlook-bullion-markets-brace-for-volatile-week-as-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-cues-weigh/articleshow/129881732.cms
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNRlZTZnRnR0tGckFFMFNyZkFpMkFYSm41Y3FmNmtWTlF0ZWZIYlpGZE04SFc4Nm9nZENQMFVNWW1kUURBSjR5Q1pfS3BIR3FFUUNTRDY5N1A4RUxRUHROTnNoLUdNX2J6ckVmNGhJM2dYaFRSQmFXX2VCM1RXcHNxeWlOR2F5VV9qQ2lQa09FS0xndw?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQTkVyUEN2ejdNYWNQOWRLZHVJLTJyNlRSeHVjT1R1YUg1UTE4dTR4YWtVLTZsZWZFNnNWZzFpQ0VoSzl6RDNvMW9uazV4QXBfb285NlUyYWRjV25ubjJRY2tDTlZqcHAxbkJVbG1YbDdVNUhJcGJOem1sSTRfRU9fN1c0TDVnQ2ZtY1dBQkNNbXZwZUQ5ZFo4MWpnajFWRnhidExsd2dZX05zRTg?oc=5
2026-03-29
2026-03-29
进展要点
- 美国可能继续增兵中东，强化军事存在以应对伊朗威胁。
- 伊朗或正式退出核不扩散条约，加剧国际核危机。
- 特朗普政府施压伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡，但北约盟友反应分歧。
- 全球央行可能因通胀压力而维持或收紧货币政策。
- 反战情绪上升，可能影响美国国内政策可持续性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 市场避险
胡塞武装袭击 / 红海航运风险 / 供应链通胀 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
伊朗核威胁 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 风险资产抛售
战争延长 / 经济增长放缓 / 企业盈利下降 / 股市回调 / 债券需求上升
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/key-moments-in-first-month-of-us-israeli-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE9zNUlleUlBNHRhY2g2Z2JXLUNrcjZ5bzJRYlRkNm0yQWRtcDR1UHJLeXRwRVNkWFZNdDJEbEMxMXdFNWhYVS1YODV3WnJDSmJhbGQ1dkxRVUpVVVMteUVtSmxWSmZUblMzZVE?oc=5
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/analysis-1-month-war-iran-150728746.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/29/iran-war-live-houthis-attack-israel-anti-war-protesters-rally-in-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-hits-airbase-in-saudi-allies-houthis-enter-war-target-israel/articleshow/129874132.cms
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxNRnNNMXp6endjeWw0eWo0SkJfX0JfVExSUnRyd2lYV01CcVN0bnVrREVUSnQxSkM0TFMzNjVWNzdCNXBNcDZ4TmgtTTNkUE94R1VSa09lb3VwUUhDVWUxRzktOXlwS1ZidFliRTNIUng3QWVFeUtNVVNZZjVia0FZZW4yZjVJRTJoRzFQcnd0bGpRaE1rNFpDaE1uMlVVVlFIVFRtSXg5ZHZPNUZfSXNndDBlcVNrME9KWWpuVVA1eEjSAcYBQVVfeXFMTUlJaHJnOHJwb2lBQmQwSmltZ0Vrd25YWnR2TGl1TUJuWUJxOGJRUnk0a3ZfQ0l6bnNETVl5Ny1PREVaVkVtaHd1VlY2akRMbHNNbUtWTTFSM2RaRnp2QWFTbF9UbzdoZjVvc21laUVxeGxWVVkta1lVS2RxY1NZckJfUWhXQXdBaWIxR1ZiT2M1R0d
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/636572-iran-us-israel-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTFB2LW9fUjBuQ1haQUdiQzRBSDBVNkFWazR3dDZsbDBJZE5yeDRUQjFBN0RaS0dzWjNCSm1TdW85anFXNno3V3p4OXFEUEgwRVJNOC1LcUhRN3p6X21FRm5uaFZwTUFxeDVmR2pZYm9iem4wOHBzUGpyOWRLSEg?oc=5
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3425270
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260328-les-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men-lancent-une-attaque-contre-isra%C3%ABl-les-frappes-contre-l-iran-continuent
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260328-yemen-s-houthis-launch-ballistic-missile-at-israel-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/kuwait-airport-hit-by-iranian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/opinion/iran-trump-israel-geopolitics.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOblloY2RKTmxkUWY2ZUQwak54MXZLRHJzcTZVNWk4STFDb3VQZkU5OXg1ZUp6dXpITmxFVkRubXAwTDZkcDU4cTBjZmhHSnd3dzRqZ1dGQXBVUldqakRLbTFzUENheUotNTQ5Vm9jTV9HemE4dUtEVDhXbl93YnRIS3hoVHJWOFpoSHBzUUFUU1NjMDNDcGhEbmpvSFZndDByODVUT2dn?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6l5n8jv4yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.iris-france.org/operations-aeroterrestres-sur-liran-de-quoi-parle-t-on
- [17] https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2026-03-28/larry-fink-presidente-de-blackrock-y-el-hombre-mas-poderoso-del-mercado-si-la-guerra-en-iran-se-alarga-mas-de-un-ano-la-economia-mundial-entrara-en-recesion.html
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [19] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/28/iranian-attack-on-saudi-base-injures-us-troops-as-more-american-forces-arrive-in-west-asia
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQYnNQVkNDSkdjNEVEOHlNUzlPQkFrenhKRGhOdnNxU09SLW1BOXlEeDFGZ0ZRdWtsWjZVWnhxYUhyYUVpMWsza0d1ejJxT0RtQ25DU3ZKUGVscnpud2MxNzdJd1V6bjgza3ZscmZLOTZfT0g1emxaY1hVZnFuU3VlR0RPOFo3WUNMclN3?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaXNoeE54X2RSMXpjVGEzNklVVW5QckY5cjYxRzhWQXBBMmZyOU9VUHR2Z1hIRndXM21odExpRzNMbFhObm5lQUc5azVhQmZxMktRS2lDZW5XcmVmZ3lSRnBwX1hZd1pJOU1fYWZmeWYwd09CU29CRlZ6Z3gwZktIcS1Edmtta0xIV0Y2SEkweDRJVGpQS1A0UFlfX1VvZGV0?oc=5
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106683-air-defense-systems-activated-in-kyiv-region.html
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/lawmakers-push-npt-exit-as-us-israel-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-steel-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-troops-wounded-in-iran-strike-on-base-in-saudi-arabia-us-official-says/article70795431.ece
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/massive-blaze-at-kuwait-airport-after-iran-drone-strike-fuel-tanks-hit/articleshow/129869192.cms
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-les-possibles-impacts-mondiaux-de-l-entr%C3%A9e-des-houthis-dans-le-conflit
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-ukraine-des-frappes-visent-odessa-zelensky-dans-le-golfe
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-premi%C3%A8res-frappes-revendiqu%C3%A9es-par-le-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-iran-frappes-isra%C3%A9liennes-sur-sites-nucl%C3%A9aires-et-civils
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-des-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-bless%C3%A9s-dans-une-frappe-sur-une-base-en-arabie-saoudite
2026-03-28
2026-03-28
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能维持强硬立场，军事行动或延长至数周
- 美联储货币政策可能受避险情绪影响，关注利率路径
- 日本财务省可能干预汇市以遏制日元贬值
- G7国家协调对伊朗制裁和外交努力
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀压力上升
避险情绪主导 / 美元和黄金需求增加 / 资产配置调整
联盟紧张 / 地缘风险溢价上升 / 风险资产抛售
来源
Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZEtyeXAteExYR1BmQ1hmendwdEJQbFo0eGRCVXdWMWFwT1JkSmU4UHJIYTJtT0puUVUzVTBFd2hfVk1ONXVNV3MxZGMtOHBUdnlCVG9pU3BhMk8zY0VpcHpBTXZTalRpLVpkZUlJNF9TbUxsWGZhd09BLS1na29SR08wQVIzZ3daZ3lpMmVleGp4WkV3ZWtv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6f005e85ece997c8b456f.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-israel-hits-iranian-heavy-water-nuclear-reactor/live-76555531?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/explosions-rock-iranian-capital-amid-us-israel-attacks/3882486
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNR3F4N2t1WExsVkJXTzNGT183ZDc0SU9LWTAtWE8zX0tRRllRMFkwdHl2LV9ESDJxeDlTR0hzM2ltVDlETmhyV3RnWmhLY2RWX1I0Q3lMaXlfeEdUWVk0Sm1vS0htQTVMWmRXQ0FJZVBhS2VXNWRSdXdWUDkzanU0U0tJcjhGam9OMTVUMmU4dWFTVm1qY2l6d01JUQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPT1lyU19ZVDZLRWc2emFWcWhUcFo5clVjM0N5R2FVQ3ZZZjQtOExQV0hpZ2xScEU3Xy1yUmYtR3hTenNLaWtlZUREdGZ4Ni1lNjZ0RzZGeWhRaU4wUHhHTm5OM1RYLTZKNUVQY2JfdGVnVzVLODE4N3kwOG1fb3AxWDhvYlBub29XdXZ6MGJkWVVTVXBwRGtET1JkM2Z1dXpXTF9EcEpYUmlnMlVoOVVmcXctaw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/israel-launches-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-sites-as-war-enters-fifth-week?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/israel-attacks-major-industrial-and-nuclear-sites-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/27/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-plusieurs-sites-nucleaires-frappes-marco-rubio-au-g7-prevoit-une-fin-des-operations-d-ici-deux-semaines_6673056_3210.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE93bjF0N2pQUWF3SWRVeENjeUNiM1lFeWR6aGZnVmJaU2NRYnc0YTkxT1dUX3BHWTZzNUVpMkt6SDRQMW5NcXl1SHdRS09IVnBuRnFpR0dkVDljd3BSUW5tcy00a3F1YVZ4OHc?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxONFp1WFh4TlAya0RwNGhQM25SYktuNDVXOHdOZ2ZhVXEySXRaUUM3aDRHLUk5SzVvV01tanRKUHdTMm1PZXRnZUItSFpNOU4tZzNBZ0dIay1VMWRXenFNYkFzUkxJOVMzZUhMSzRnRGRjdk5SQzVZVXNZTTEweUdVZWtZYmhZcDdNeWZzdXdfYnLSAZYBQVVfeXFMT0N6QTFnQUhnTlNKeFo1S2ZZQ2Vlcmdnc3dsM3N5dE0zaG5laXFRTlVEckI3ajJ2cmJKalhFel9DZmtGMVQ1RFR0Y3JSekpNdG11LVpXNFJCczl5djRrbTNjYzQ4OVlHM0V5R3JJal9hWC1lNE1YSXEyZlRXOWVvSVJxaDY5SVp5OWRJWjNCdDF4Rm5hckZB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-uses-hundreds-tomahawk-missiles-101814598.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106269-irgc-announces-strait-of-hormuz-closure.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-creating-a-new-middle-east?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-samstag-104.html
- [17] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/release-the-bank-canadas-summary-deliberations-2026-04-01
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/rescue-workers-rush-to-save-lives-after-south-tehran-missile-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [20] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/28/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-le-chef-de-la-diplomatie-americaine-marco-rubio-accuse-volodymyr-zelensky-de-mentir-sur-les-garanties-de-securite-proposees-par-washington_6673450_3210.html
- [21] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6aabf21efa07c798b45b9.html
- [22] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/28/69c6c1ade4d4d8ca6d8b4571.html
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/28/trump-stellt-unterstuetzung-fuer-nato-partner-infrage
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/houthis-warn-fingers-on-the-trigger-as-us-israeli-war-on-iran-continues?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/nearly-1-500-civilian-deaths-in-a-month-of-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-human-rights-report/3882476
- [26] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/trump-says-cuba-next-after-iran-war/3882480
- [27] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/washington-donald-trump-pete-hegseth-b2947437.html
- [28] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/73131
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/fingers-on-the-trigger-for-military-intervention-houthis-warn?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxOaTZ2TFgyZmVUZk1DRUpidjlZcGV1NkpFX2IxVk9QRUZNdGZRWi1ZMktlcDFncGFUOTlNajloY1l6Sy1NdHBpU3hvdk5hakJxMEJDTVVhTnh2TjRRUm9SNFZPdDRhV1J5LTVwNmNsMGNqTy1MTW9ad1ZSaUo2V3duNkhaTjItczdP?oc=5
2026-03-27
2026-03-27
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续使用军事威胁作为谈判筹码，政策信号混乱。
- 美联储可能因油价上涨导致的通胀压力而调整货币政策，加息预期上升。
- G7国家等待美国澄清伊朗战争立场，可能影响国际合作和外交协调。
- 美国国内政治压力可能迫使政府调整中东政策，以缓解选举担忧。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀风险
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
油价上涨 / 美国通胀压力 / 美联储加息预期 / 全球利率波动
WTO改革失败 / 贸易保护主义上升 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOazM5aVI0RjBGa0NfUzU4UGNKMXpONTNmc2tQdG5Gc0E1UTBrS292SHJCSzZHcTlHdXNEVHhtM2hXeDh4OFVqZFM4N24xVzZlVTZSNlJmWlhxQmhvZWtWd3NlV2dZdDVCNWhvQ0lYN244cEt6QTFlcWM3ZTVTaGtBUUlRTUdUMkd4R1kxWjhacEVrNnV1MHRfZmtQXzN1WXliN194MnJEZEJWa0R3Qmt6ZU1Eckg3ZXNBc0xIU0930gHDAUFVX3lxTE83b3hyNjVEWXUtWE5KRTZEX040cnZhcTdvb1VFeEhxR1luQXVTR2lKaWE3T2xmWElrT3U2NV9xMkdHd0hxV21BLTJmUjhxODc3blNfUGtwNHRCdWM2YmplQnVqMFgzS0dDaWVoZ2ZOME4zSVNBaVo2LTE5MElLQlBiTjZVYnhPSkMtMkw3VlFjSnEwcjJ
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/iranian-missiles-cause-widespread-damage-across-israel-in-latest-wave?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260326/4ba703685484482e8b989fe883829511/c.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593524.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593519.shtml
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593516.shtml
- [9] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c54b06e85ece6b448b45a0.html
- [10] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c56546fc6c83733f8b4588.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/trump-pausing-plan-to-destroy-iranian-power-plants-for-10-days?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-verlaengert-Ultimatum-um-zehn-Tage-id30517240.html
- [13] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Teheran-kontrolliert-Strasse-von-Hormus-mit-Mautstellen-id30515770.html
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Hauptverantwortlicher-fuer-Sperrung-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-soll-tot-sein-id30514792.html
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-feuert-ballistische-Rakete-auf-Abu-Dhabi-Tote-durch-Truemmerteile-id30513646.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/636330-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/26/aje-onl-tt_irq_neighborspillover_av_v2-260326?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/26/what-are-the-red-lines-for-iran-and-the-us-in-the-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/wto-holds-crunch-meeting-amid-collapsing-multilateral-system?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/trump-postpones-us-strikes-on-iranian-power-grid-to-april-6-amid-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-03/strasse-von-hormus-iran-trump-ultimatum-verlaengerung-ostern
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-starts-formalize-chokehold-strait-192024062.html
- [23] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/03/26/guerre-en-iran-avant-le-g7-le-canada-et-ses-partenaires-attendent-des-eclaircissements-de-washington_6674368_3210.html
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/26/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-au-liban-au-moins-1-116-personnes-ont-ete-tuees-depuis-le-debut-de-guerre-au-moyen-orient-selon-les-autorites_6673056_3210.html
- [25] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/26/trump-verlaengert-iran-ultimatum-erneut
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/israel-sends-more-troops-into-southern-lebanon-as-ground-invasion-expands?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/una-guerra-de-final-incierto-en-la-que-los-dos-bandos-elevan-sus-exigencias-que-se-sabe-de-las-negociaciones-entre-ee-uu-e-iran.html
- [28] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/israel-mata-al-responsable-del-cierre-de-ormuz-mientras-trump-urge-a-iran-a-alcanzar-un-acuerdo-antes-de-que-sea-demasiado-tarde.html
- [29] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/iran-rechaza-la-oferta-de-estados-unidos-para-acabar-la-guerra.html
- [30] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-24/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
进展要点
- 欧洲央行将密切关注通胀风险，可能推迟降息，以应对能源供应冲击。
- 美国或加强制裁执行，增兵海湾地区，但外交压力可能促使谈判尝试。
- 北约需回应领土遇袭事件，可能加强东翼防御，推高地缘风险溢价。
- 伊朗坚持五项条件，包括霍尔木兹海峡控制权，谈判进展依赖美国让步。
- 全球能源政策或转向储备释放和替代供应，以缓解价格压力。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀风险上升
俄乌冲突加剧 / 俄罗斯能源出口受阻 / 全球供应紧张 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判僵局 / 地缘不确定性持续 / 市场情绪避险 / 黄金和美元走强
能源危机 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 央行政策转向鹰派 / 利率上升 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxPZHZTeElMaGFXSUFuLWF0cm81WmRmc2R3T1FRbVRjZkJNekFQRnZlQS02bl9OWkgyT1JGVkRrUXpqQ1J1Mmt1Y1U2NUhuZlFRajUxTlBxLXlkdHBQM3ZVSks2Vjk5TmlQUUdhWnZPRHNIRTdKTzJYYndFd3J6dmlaTXNld2tZTlRkSnQ5bTF1VVU2Z0c1UWpPYXh1Mk9SeHZnTVl4Z2syVENULVNaY2NmNHJYQ2lDRHR1RVdxbA?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/explosions-and-smoke-seen-as-iranian-missiles-hit-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995xp4jxj2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260325/f6d947b8e24c4f2e8c5b44ea69c57b8d/c.html
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-26/10592890.shtml
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0n9z3jlvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOZUVaa1BTWEJ5UENmczgyUTZ2VGlvOThaVk54Zy1mX2FlSkVXRkpPM0JoRFN4SkMzYjdqMW5YX19Ib3E3d0hNd2J4VUoweUdxUGZEbHEtb2JJVzNmeW53d0VkQmtMOGJESVBRX2JQZ0VrSUJLRWotVGw3dkFVdDBDaTBSclBnaGNzNmdva2hwa3NXbkpwNVA1VkZ6UVZoMDQ3NzMwetIBqgFBVV95cUxQTTBwMHc0MXZhWElFNnE5UHhqYnppQnYxbkhqMUVKYTJDSzVRRWFHSnJ2dVBnanlWWmFGdzFWbkdWelR1Znl3U1pmTEM4X3NGa0FmMUJIX0w1V1UwYVhIV2VDaUlLS21rTTdFQUV0VFNvMkZxYkotd1VfT1Fud1Zwc1VQSU90WXlIcHk3aXRoS3BXV21oWVdnd2N5SlBPd0NqQjZZbHppb19sQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQMXdid0VGVnlDTGxyM0hLVm5YQ0t5clFwMHJiTG84R0dSM25BMjN6cmZMbzJTNnRjM05rV0UtVmVNTC1XLWx0UWFwaVBEd1VXYXVNamxuUHI5NEZPeFZHN1FKZFpJTW1LSDd0aW02RGVXU0NSM1VQRHJyY09MZU00TGYtSlk3QVk0QUNvSUhwbHUtUkxQc2pLNGtZMmhwZlRQWVlmQnhrUFE?oc=5
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/636210-us-israel-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4105605-war-update-140-clashes-on-frontline-pokrovsk-sector-remains-most-active.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/iran-releases-video-claiming-to-show-downing-of-us-jet?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/us-tells-iran-to-accept-defeat-or-trump-will-unleash?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTFBaSTB2REZuZkVORnhBWVNzZUxJazU0QjNvX1ZURldXN2pXVl8tUmt4LUtVSXMyRzMxTGZWRUVxWllfeXpzQUJoaENZSFppbGxJTW1JUU91dk9JNFNwVTJCd3hGTkFpTDFKU1Y5WVpR?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/25/whats-irans-war-strategy-and-what-risks-does-it-pose?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPcnFiZWQ3UmpJdmZUOV9JUk1Xdks5TkdMRThxY2NDVXNRczFYbUhOeFVVWnRYU2NGTkpJaFJ5NU1sc0tXUHZhVlZqNHdncmQ1bXQ2VXpnOEY2S3Q4dFUyVmNaUXFnblpWUjdYZE0wbmRVNnBtYjR5bjBHQVhOcWdVbWM5NWZNMVA1bkRlck02VkVOMVhFWWJZTWVHRDREbVItMlIxWjlR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/irans-state-tv-outlines-five-conditions-to-end-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxPXzFlbUhpQ2xmVXJWMXI4SWEwU290YVN0dkdJSUdfYWUyZ3RiZW9SNnZNSmI2N0k3cE13T0hMQjNVUk9rMDBHLVZrUFpFblhScnBVX1JSTjViQ01EZUtwNDJkUF96bnNJTHM0ZERnNWNiNE1WS2tFM0p4WFZ6dUx4cXZTZ3dmczBIZjBsLTJKdjRxa0xOWV92WV95RUotcmlneXpVVkpCZEsxMFM0a014Y3RkSnRjTnRWc0Z4dWlYU3RWRkVQZW8xbHQ5MXpSSnRSLUFmMUVmZV92dG1OeFlsQkNEUWpTR2xTMlMySjh1Sjc4Q0U?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOSE9rVnF3d3k4SmhmU01hRkdJdThyM2RiVXpiRDZaWGtqMDQ5NzhyWXVxQW1MNlN0aWd3VXNvcTZCLTUtdlhMQU5qYVNWRWZCWFVwaVJaQ3BhclFLNEtqN1dHekYtcDR1X18yaUNGcE4xaTZBYm53d0VrMUFOUGs3SmdRTTU3TDRDd1pkUDhUT0ZQbFJHR1lsdklIbE9WUi13czY4YTE5b1RRc2V2Z290QQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/636167-iran-worse-than-iraq-sanchez/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBhNUprVndUd2RfcjlTX25CYWxQX0FURTZxS0FHNHhMTFZ0ellkb2RUcW1WVE5BUkpEdS1EbzBFaUNJWXZiSGhJYjI4NVN1eGhIcjV2MlhJYV9iS01Sc1J4Q25QWE4xY1RBaWFKNXdIeEp2U21mLUJuTw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQbVB0QmxlZFY1d2N2ajhFMWpMMWJZcWpOa24zV3lYVkZUYk8zMF9iR1lULUJROUZRaWRjanBuUzM0UlN6OUhYQ2JyT3Q2Wm5kMDYwUzZrWTlIUXB0TkJmWnBHV0JyNFUwVnZKRzJ1Q05VSVdKVFF3cmJKbGl1QVpyV1lIU3NmYjlOUkg4Zg?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPUzdaa0lJdElid1NPc2RhSGJGdkRGenM0UGcyWDNfTTUtbWFwMmFHbjgyaVEyb1BDTG5EdVlTamZBVkQtLXhBaE45dWZBX1luTUNGWWhzSmwtVXY2cTkzSmZHQlpNVDNoQjg5R1Y4WkJtTm5uTmNfaHlseDEtZ2xndmtnUHNjckE5Z3lrbDlXMTdEeVJOdkxYb2Z6dzBsRV80Wl8tR0lFeHpTS1pwcWZoUWpJeU5UNjFnaVg2T0RB?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQSnpPVGY1V0h1RUhCU1ZCNVFyQV9DczRnVHJEMVk4QWFYRHk5VzRxWFpQa1FRSjFaTEk5YkwyejBmLWZTaFVieVJIVnRyck9Yb1JhYjdNX2lsakRySmdUbkFZY1B0aEJuNzdtNFhscXVPZXRGMmhhbUJVRWN4Z1BvQ1hMd0c3Ml9PUjZGQ3dqNzhtc2ZZR3hBSVZYaGwtNk5CVWRYSXRrYUFzMDNkcWJHblFFTW9fdw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/war-on-iran-what-troops-is-the-us-moving-to-the-gulf?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOdUtCdTFreDRwM3dONWtPQmFoZF9UNEdUMHhJejF1eUcxZEhHVUQ4XzFJdVZ6OUdkckZ2eDNpODJRSHBYYmxpbC1CS2dSOXgxclR4REhmRWlITjFUS2VnVVE1RXRKa2xtODRTeTlhN2dyWXNMejNmYVE0ZlU4R1RmVjREZGZ3TnFxNXNIYV94Sk92VG44aDZvVnFnUW1iQkdo0gGmAUFVX3lxTE54eGZkajBCaklCOElMT1k5TkVMbXlCUWw2Y2pwbUFvYmlEUTZFb05rejhuRXREajA3UXVqYWRzTlZ0QjhObTlMdkZzMHJieGJnVlF2aUFjM0xUY0pHdEY4TnQ1SE44ZW5tc3R2TlJnc29CYjVwa0lDRk14T3dWY1lZd3YxZnlPeDBkOG5ETWNab194NFAtamJjWGloWjh1Wm8xR1RYUGc?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE5uMGZRMTY3dnJWQ1REYWVFY3dqNW9NZGg0Ym52M1o4VC1TZWhzQVpMUjh3ZENlRGs1UTBROXVJZjJ3aXdQQUh3TnZUMA?oc=5
- [28] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/70691f988eb542f3acc9660bfd41443c/c.html
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636100-shock-and-awe-is-dead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/israel-talks-up-iranian-threats-to-european-cities-to-justify-war?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步军事部署中东，如第82空降师增援，并更新对伊制裁。
- 中国通过财政政策支持银行信贷扩张，重点投向科技创新和基建领域。
- 全球央行或因能源通胀风险调整货币政策，关注利率路径变化。
- 特朗普政府外交策略矛盾，需观察后续军事和经济政策协调。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 油价金价上涨
LNG供应中断 / 能源价格上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中国特别国债 / 银行信贷扩张 / 实体经济支持
地缘紧张 / 市场波动加剧 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/building-collapses-after-iranian-missile-strike-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/iranian-missiles-cause-injuries-and-major-damage-across-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPQ3N3MFRHWTViTmdtMGhteGRYbFBTaTN0TlFJdWU0eHdkdmtsMkVTY09PbGF3bmFRUnBDT1JmS3pmMGVkSzd3d21UUUlCQkJaNWkxSmRXcHdZMUlqMFY1Mm9BcFJjblp2bzctTmRpWmpPdnNLQUpxdFBMbi1GLWxNZk1nMHNualdrTjBhdTNaR3hRWlBa0gGaAUFVX3lxTE5PQnBMY2FGbVJYZUczQVMyN1Y5em5NZHpEeC1MOHJzR0tfa29wU3c3M0N5NzlDWF9WaW8wRjdhUnZvVTlZOHo2WDZyV0pDSGJiMFJBMWhyNng3bl9hWDl6RXc4MF9Mb0NyQnBXNHkwWFJ1YmVlMFJZQTNpOTkxLVdsdTJleXE5cnpwS1lWMTF0Wml6eC1aQVBpZnc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260324/13137e064ccb478c9939b3b8c9272065/c.html
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/6b6fad3bee41483eadae413812ef9ccd/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/25/iran-war-live-trump-again-says-talks-underway-12-killed-in-south-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://unric.org/fr/lactualite-de-lonu-en-bref-numero-11
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/arms-manufacturer-thrives-amid-us-israel-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/trump-claims-us-has-achieved-regime-change-received-present-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.anzen.mofa.go.jp/info/pcwideareaspecificinfo_2026C021.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4OV82UHJwV3pQdUdsRUc1R3hnSHFFMXIxQ25uLU1TRGFxNUFZMmpBWG9GaDRwRkZHbmplVDlnWklTRTFpcmpWMGJaVGw4aUl1ZVZkRUhMZXpqQQ?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE83NTJQYXhUdGF1U1RIRHpnZVZ5M0NDdzRYMVpySW9kUzZOUUJyS3pObEI1MVFhWTZ1Y0hOYTlrbkFJSFpjdExjWlE0cEU2eUQxZEExN2VMMVhURkhIVkFsR1BZdDJsaElCeGZSRQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOWW5Xd3p5UWxSQmdTMjdmRVJOaTBDb0lSNmdFd1FVTVRacU1qOEY1Rmo2d05iUXYwMXQ3ZU11RnhYdHI0RHBrbm4xbGVUSXJydjBOc2ZWdG85c3pOZEFiQ1lOckZ0cjQ5SFJmSUQyc3hsX3JoTE10aDRFTVRzNFM0Ykp6ci1XSWdxUGZTVlNoRjlhYVp4?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOVUswbnBPNGRmZVI3bXFRMWZ4Q3Fucl9Cczd0MnlZQUVZcFUxeF85TzNIbmoyQmUyckl5dWpKTFoyT2Q1OW9UWkdjaGhCNGw3b0t6S203VDJSS2V4bldDSGZVZm9pMk50S3owX0Z1QXB6OU5Hd0kyTWpwbEs2WjllRjJuNkttTHhqNENjd0sxZE1OVEZUVXpjb2IyeEtqTnBvUWxSd0ZWb2dRUmhiVlhkbHdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/has-iran-brought-down-an-unkillable-us-f-35-jet-3?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/russia-hits-ukraine-with-deadly-daytime-barrage-as-spring-offensive-starts?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxPZUo5dVE3czd6Mm1zajl0eklhS1ZnVUtPY1FIWDF6N3h0M0ViV2pPa2YzNlZUN3FYNlQ1MENQVWdrUzFNRkhhQThPUldaWmNrcHpzNFNIUkIyc3d1OE5qWjloTk9Xd003d0ZZRzgwaGJkWUNFc2o4ZUVaVzBtZGVDYmgzcFM0cmdGYTlha2VNNWluUlk?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNVVlkMW5RWHd3cEtuaEpTLXYwT1ljcUh1eWxwM1BPbHU4VnFWOWRHMWNCYTlhQ0VESGgxTTBuSFdOa3U2Qmo2bHRfV2FDQy00NDl4NE9MN2Y3LV85Mm5JaUVXZFJNaFk5SVNoWVZXbXZVNkU0U2VvRG5xanBFTi1iS0hud21KZHBsYzlPSUFIdVk2bnYwRlFfc2NqODdXUQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQSUJBY25HYjlUaU9STTBWX2VycXdDbktZMjBDZ0xrXzRZbGdhTlo5UXF1djlIYmRLRmNJM1l6QUJZSXN0YXlhNF9SOUNfNzJTM0ZuNjZmUnhVbWVvd0dqMGZBcFZOMEhPVTNjZkdOU3BERnVYbjBtcVlwUmpSb0hwWGJVYjQ1YV9NTzNZc2xFcDA2dl9JT2g1bktUMkJMalBzQVM2NUVBMkxVenpEVGxIc1RzS2hBM0lSNXZOb2RSQW9MbFU3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/24/what-impact-is-the-war-on-iran-having-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPdkFVRklESDFYLXFHSFhfaWtsTkVnQkt0Z0hQcjNHb0hSbmxoX2U3WUhidy1oM1VxZVNqcGg4eGRrNHJlY2pRdXBQRl90d0hGNGs0dEpRR0RaQW5jR2F6OTBkdGZJX3JseDlmMWhsOF9WRVVoLUpTV2JLT0xYLXdXVlVRbG1pcDZTSW5Gc1E3QnVJZjkwNnlTNUQ3NGVEdFZBb3FtcmZUeDg?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/israeli-defences-questioned-as-iran-continues-to-cause-damage?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5491798/iran-serang-pasukan-israel-di-gaza-jika-gempuran-ke-lebanon-berlanjut
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz90gpyw90wo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQWnhpTVZWTm5IVFdUc0VzbnpHMXF5MFlMM0hWWDM5ZVV0ZWsxZmRvcTlWZks5OGZCT3huSnpsdUFfMXRLVnowTllnV3Q4eDlGUzdpbDgybjB2ZjBKQmZ5NmpFUGVpcjJIRUJFZGQxUFVzbnJEM21qNllDdUl6aGVrRVFkdGlpcnE5azhnVlJZUElEeWpyQ0JlTHJ0UjdlamFoVUVteC1pdTJaNGc4NzZhNl9kMTFvbGt2al9QRQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c625j162yy6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/moment-rescuers-find-man-alive-under-the-rubble-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260325000829qiS
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260324233310JGR
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
进展要点
- 国际能源署可能释放战略石油储备以缓解供应危机，但警告无法根本解决短缺。
- 中国推出财政金融协同政策刺激内需，中央财政安排1000亿元支持投资和消费。
- 特朗普政府对伊朗政策矛盾，暂停打击但谈判信号不明，增加不确定性。
- 巴林推动联合国安理会批准使用武力保护霍尔木兹海峡，需关注国际反应。
- 全球央行可能调整政策应对油价波动和通胀预期变化。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 避险资产需求上升
IEA释放储备 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期下降 / 央行政策调整
中国财政刺激 / 内需增长 / 经济预期改善 / 亚洲股市受益
俄乌冲突升级 / 俄罗斯石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪升温
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQeFlEVTNsOTdEc0ljS0NNM3hWU2tyN3pDanhRRUI3X1NHazA0QlFZUURfMXJ6aFd5TVRrV3FSNkVUWEU1OEFfZGRFWUtHM2Z3cC1RM0dQTlpWZGNGTmN6RGFIM2kycjhsOU9mMG1SY2s1aTJTTnhOUTd1TWJxSEpFWExvRHV4ZDdhS0s1dEd3dnBMR3VXbUktUEVKNE13MnAwcnFydFVRa9IBrAFBVV95cUxORFlJeVpKaDUxalYzQlEzS2YyNkgwb2xuYVhFWGEzeGg3UXp4b1JVdzVJcTBwRWMwQWtCMjhXN29DNlg1WVdQX0FjbzVoZGlVcm9WYzQ2V3NCOEV0Z1hNTWtJSTJxeEVwR3pjZENmMWZrU29qdFZNWGJaMDdkcmMzUVIzd1g0RFVFMHlfZ0VFOGVqVHBPMzVteHliNjlkWnpxcXBKSHlJRGhHUU5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260323215112Kkk
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOUHkxVlFhd3UwODFGQzA3RmlSSF9VOG9KRE16MGs1RnQ1MTdaTEo5VlU2ZzVpeVpCNEJCYTY0OWhCaW1RdWdkZmZYQndOUzRhWjZ0S19XTWZVSlF3enBRbVVmR2JuU0JrR29MbnFJbXV6UTdhbGlVTHhIc2hpNXVUc2h2bGtyYWJCcU5PUklTWWxka0c0V256d2EyeHM4b251Z1EydVJZMDRJZTJhblRqOFE4cmZKdXpWM0NjMnpDa091ajBTVTk0TjFZMk96a0UtQ19HOFZ1WTdFSGNK?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxOWnRuRU44R2hpMFF3QXhhOGcwWWlrNDlBbWluQlVGblNQWjFDczNJbmZ3VGhWS1ZEUFZXUTh1Vk9UVjlVMHpsbWQxOFhBU2dpN1Q1eW9GT1JZNmxoNHNta2lDTUZaOTh6SUY5cUotblNhUUgxYUFvcnlfblBsNmp4b1hEMHV4Z3R1OGphUXF1bVJFaWFTaEI3RmFYQ2NmWFJieHNlWExPaHVyVFlJM1pxUW1qc1RXWWPSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWJ1UC1yMHl1c0I1UFQtQ3pKQUtoX0hhTmlJSFROUWluMkRJYjNsRHM3RlFfWDduUXdvVTFVNUJnS0Z2VlljbXZJRDlLbmVqdk1GWDJleHFQX2ZzMTlHR1NKczkybVdKSTFtdjl6MnhUTXFDUFBsZllxWms2NV9ZaXFRSmpSSkJPU2JRb0dDRE9aMm5jU1R1M2JfU1E
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/bahrain-proposes-un-security-council-191015009.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/c3ec2f52c91f48498322e5447855a248/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/532a958446c14f798d6c3c77956c7b8f/c.html
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/b617e78931ec4118a6258dc96ca5904e/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15Yy1taFh4aEtPNVBuTzdWTXN2ZWxhTE55ZzlUdVJ0RENRYzJ2MGctOXJFSzlsTnBhNFJqUXJGOV9HQWdkRGVJd211b1VueWpBdVRhNl9jbjNxdw?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxPRWtnS3JYeU8xM3A4S0NCMnA1U0s0QWRZbHpWQm9vVC14QkZCRks1cmU1NGJMbVcwbE41VGkxN1BYS1dwR1BxMkJnaWRab29NSVJwYUNzZlBFQk0zaEJlMmRNdTZwOGdXVjlsRXl3dDBmd0RMTjRtb3d5UnBQMjhCbVNqOFR4am8zWEg5dkNNQW1rdWs1blFGZnVDNUlDbzlUQVF1QXZIb3paYmthTTc0ZmFBb1VSN0RaUGY1eEZqcUVPZGpHRHR4LWJROEhXRmJNaEFF?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPZDBuci1xV3lJRmZiRTRrSEIycXJJbTBZcXA3T3dWSjQyM21ieHFFV0NfX3BQWUxyZnRQUmh1SGM1YVZZaXNOX2gxbk85M0hwZ2Ixd3ZiMEVLbEcxSDF6LU9GaGRIZUhwQ2dFdFVNenVkQ1NXSEtYSVR1MEJPNm5EbDdzY09sSDA?oc=5
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591666.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgJBVV95cUxOaUttbXZMVWI4Ri1UU3NjdVRhenVfZndFMFVXZ0dUNjdOaXBkMHk2cVJmTWVsckxqX0t2RGsxVVFMcGJRckFLRXo4ek9KQWRjUHc4ZzhmXzVqWTNjdUw5cDZxbWVTd3FmUjdYdjN0Q0RwdGtFTU11ekRPMzdRUkNoUVFieC1JZ0tueWJHRVFQZ1FleXBsQmg3QUNDdWxaWUNiZTBtbDQ3ODByVTVoMV9yblhURTZubkpEbzFsakVOYVRCbVI2SlFCbzVjWXpkRGNtcUZjVVhWeHFXcTd3bmxXdmE4QWduWjI0dFJDM1BtaHRlbVhmS3pyVjUtTjRma1pmTVlVODhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/115f499f8d94454299aca4391317ebef/c.html
- [15] https://www.president.gov.il/%d7%a0%d7%a9%d7%99%d7%90-%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%93%d7%99%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%91%d7%a7%d7%a8%d7%99%d7%99%d7%aa-%d7%a9%d7%9e%d7%95%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%95%d7%91%d7%92%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9c-%d7%b4%d7%a2%d7%9d-%d7%99%d7%a9
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591654.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNU2NYQUNVbVlyZVNkdkwxMkhPd1lVVTBPODdNV2VjOVd1UTlYVU9yWWM4RnJUWFhyUW5pNXQxc0FUWlRWNFNmUXVJLTAwNGpzVnJnZVpNZ0pZSGRqQ3FPeUllTWNOUGU0Q0dja0JaODQ4bG1IaU9SRUJsMGsxUzRlYkdFczdjNXRQYUdmN0h3VmpkUm9HWGNWUThwaw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/23/have-israel-the-us-and-iran-violated-international-law?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/23/smotrich-urges-israel-to-annex-southern-lebanon-as-assault-intensifies?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635973-israeli-minister-annex-southern-lebanon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/635945-netanyahu-trump-mossad-coup-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQTmVDemJya1pCcFFiaXg4X0tvQzd3dFVwZ3JYcGZPcW0zdDNoeF9TYWNEWWFiZ1BOb214clNtNDgxekt6Y1V1a2pqZENEZ3ZHXzA0SlpiWXgzNnhaTWFHMVh5MXd4ZktUTDFOQTd6QlpHaWU2N250S3ZzZENBMWw4T2g4V0htQW0yazdCYTh6RkFSRzYzazJsdWxNVUhBQjFCZnBNclBYZ1VJd1ZMZl9icjBvWmNSTHpTeXBn?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPWFBma2Z2eE8zN2Q1STNJYkpNbnhSbXhyUkE4MW1DZXRUcU51NjJaRjNQYUpnNEh5RHNnWHFxN2pDcUlrUkRZcHV4SS1reXViY0JCLUNxQjlvX3ZaNHlRTnItRUQyd2pxd2wxNUFRcXRKNU1zdVZrcXRKRkVIZE1YcEd1SGZIU1l2bHBTc010Zjhwcy03VENWdmdlZ01uVVFfbFdISVRSb192MHZudzUweVpQZzA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635916-us-iran-energy-attacks-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/ukraine-strikes-key-russian-oil-port-and-refinery?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/what-trump-said-about-iran-after-postponing-military-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/635922-persian-gulf-sea-mines/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104754-zelensky-warns-of-possible-russian-massive-strike-today.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE05UDBYcG9nNXA2c0NaNS1zRkNVWjlFODFSVW9Id3duaW5CVmRJemZLVWQwdkNHZml6Q01LVVVtbWg2RTZudXlLdXVHemZUNXpmN0taY1N6aVhHMGJWbmV0TTJPNnNtWmZxMU5USWM4MFZfN2liR190Rg?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPNG1XQ3RiWWFnZ1VRVmFUN1FHcHA1dEdDdnJXMjRabk52bTRKQTRxOEMxR3ZzUG40b3ZxaHZfM19ua2RJam5PdnI0d0R0NGU5VkwzU2Z3dnBqZUpMS0tNTDFyUHdMOGNCVW5KZ2hkZ2NGNXhLS1dIWG1wYlFoRG9wejRQNC1nVHdibkpfbFBHcS00ak9LU3Blc3c1RS1IbkRWeVFvSFVaZm1MZkZtSk92Q0lpdUNMRFk?oc=5
2026-03-23
2026-03-23
进展要点
- 特朗普政府启动对伊朗谈判准备，提出六项要求包括限制核计划
- 北约秘书长呼吁成员国集结以重开霍尔木兹海峡，支持美国军事行动
- 英国首相斯塔默召开COBRA会议评估伊朗战争对经济的影响
- 美国可能调整军事策略，从空袭转向潜在地面行动以应对海峡封锁
- 伊朗提出强硬谈判条件如停火和赔偿，双方立场分歧大
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀和避险情绪
霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 油价飙升 / 资金回流美国
伊朗报复性袭击 / 地区不稳定 / 黄金和美元上涨
谈判进展不确定性 / 市场波动加剧，影响资产价格
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQT3ZNV3EtM18yTjlzZDNUYlU3YXljZGRUY0o1N1ZXQ1FvXzVOWG45VUJ6SW1kNTRhU1hEQUpGMzVRVE5pUnNMazZ3VGxHc0lsZE1YRnFudndka255bTVEMFJnM2ZhdkZNdDdLbDIxWGxpbnBzRjlKQ05TWEJoR0JOekFncXpucVFHd1A4UVNnak0xd0lHMmxFemU2Ti1TTkHSAaQBQVVfeXFMT3V5aERRUlAxQmFnYk5NQXZ5ek9OaXhRdlVJTXVfbm9teTRsWDBPNmJxTG1hUW1kTkd4YXZaZHlSdTdlWFdWVGN0ZDB0QkdoOWhGbkRyZzQxRm1GN2pVMEJoWE9xWlRrcmRjYWNOY3NhX0d4REtuR1I2dUtEamJkMVJfZmdURHllNmRnb05qbTRUOWVqR1NxSTR1RmFhRnc5UWpwVlg?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxPV1l2bGRCNUZZSnBSb0JSc1RqdG4yZXRvV0cyczhsRDNtRHVyYWZjclhYdVJTZmZHR1RES01FbXNSZkZCUEM0Zm9DQkVFQW1xTDJaV0JJZi0xTkFrYmJFaTlFYVMwaHN4SjRMcVlNNGJMN21yZGdGQmVfQTJxUEctNnB4SzRyXzJWRVVTOUNENEx6eHhLVzhpR21UUHZYYUFKM0JXTWtoTXVkaVlUNXpoQl8yYVBJM2twdzBna3M5TTA2UQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/iran-claims-missile-attacks-on-key-israeli-military-bases?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230031383jb
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260322232612fdX
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNaHBrbloxQjlGRzJKSy00dEQ1Qm9VLTZ1VmQ3ZDUtNlZSYzhYSXE0WDYyLXJrSjZGd0lvS0s3Q2EyRzZieUtUWUlMb1loVmVfSUR5Y25rVlhnX092WEMwM0pNVFFQMS1ia2R4bmJhS1l4NHo3SUF4bHJxakVPdzZuQTBXSV8yblRoejhXcWtVVGFrNVIwM3F4czdmX0I4S0prSFJVVHR2ZmFNVTBhdE5PRm0zaWdaR2s3VW14dw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/moment-iranian-strike-hits-central-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323025052Hm3
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-hints-wind-down-war-051853034.html
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230243549b3
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/we-do-it-together-in-confidence-netanyahu-backs-us-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-to-chair-cobra-meeting-over-iran-wars-impact-on-the-economy-sky-news-understands-13523061
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/risk-of-escalation-is-extremely-high-as-iran-shows-it-can?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9jcnVocFJLNzlNR1REN0dXWWpZaGdOTDJUWTlZREdLQnlOcEtNZXdBbUwyNHQ4SDNmOURQNmZVT2hSX2xYeEdRUEh2dHp4WWp0b3pvREF1Smk2LWoy?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5XTFdWUGE5cERnZkhaTXJxOUM2cWFfNHJzMnNzbmxfQkNmTk53Z3dZdkdIM1F0Q1pNV2xRMVBjbWx5MEplVnZIbW5hdmdFYlRLdnBSSi1IYUhjNnN1Rm1TbDFfZ2ItbjI2?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNejFFOG1nc0JZSUs1clVVTEdvb0dOVVEwejJpUlRFR01RUWtfRFVBUW5iYkVpYXNoamxDSXVvVkJEa1JJWkQ3VmtsNDRqNVhfMVNvbUZHMlBocHZfUTFqdms2SGZjV1RnVUk1WGJ4YUNacU1FdUppblNjdGpBQU95N3o5d0x2bEJGYjVSMzJNQUx5djVjNm8zV2JfQm02S1NGeWlpRDAtY0pRQzBTRHfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTVhUbV90T0EwWEs0azhVbk9vN2JHWmx0dURSOTF3a19qUmxzMDQwU3JELTV2SmRsMUFKOVU3NFZxM0t4czFSUXVlZXJsRmtVZThxclpHamNoQWJadFdnX3k1U1pXa1h1TTNJT3B5Y29CeXJzXzUxbTdSbFlFaWhXYkpWdm5vVFJtRnpRRGVJd0tmU3ZVWjZLNXVUbGxZZkdwMEtOYTV
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/gas-prices-south-southwest.html
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFB4am5wWjBMYmt1ak8wT1dxNHdzTUJlaWd1ZFBxQ0hmYlVDVUdWeEZ2aFQ5aTJ6Q2I2LV9fcjhWMF9sZG1mMDlIRncwampXY1NhRnRhTlhkWlpjTmZaeU5EWTdDeGdkYXFfeEN2VzM2NXE4QQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNclpXV0tqN3l4dmxLZFBuS3IwUTFteTFSeGlxYUE3aENPSGdub0IyaEptN01JSnJudmZUaGlvUzktS19XOV9KTW9NVVFoWUdqRzdscjdTQUd3WWJLUTFxMWZtcTUwTXNiaExNYlFXLWpPcFEyQko1eXVHTENrQjlWYWczX1FBWDJlSHRnNjlwMXdOanBuSi1zMlZaVkk5N0lKUVR6cGE5ZDFsREdsRl9jRUp6UW7SAboBQVVfeXFMTmg3a1lwZFU0VElmREJJaUh5UjE5ekZTLTYwLUZuNU9Dci1rcDVRbXJrcWhBZUN1ck1kRWpLdldobDRqZUVnOFVDaEQtRjNoaVVNTVFoN0FlODdjNnE5dmR6TlZfNjh3Z0YwSmVsYlVYODQ0MlRMRXN2M1lVRVJabi1tbHNJRGtDX1g3YXpRV0tadXZweklUTmdlbEJTRzd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323003254LDq
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iranian-authorities-taunt-us-israel-eu-amid-strikes-and-assassinations?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/21/42609
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBxQlZJNlZWNXI1Q1ZVMmVMaHFKc25vekYtQmtqZl81cjk2SDRQQmRuTUxyU2RnZ3JfSkhxMzhZYkdiSWJEX2hDbGdxYzdDTEdJZndZakdJSENmQXdmajlDNWY2ekdoajFYQy1LZW5wV3dDQ09nbTIxaG9lZzVjLVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/trumps-changing-messages-on-iran-war-what-does-it-say-about-us-strategy?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c3v6k0l631vo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iran-says-will-hit-regions-energy-sites-if-us-israel-target-power-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104328-iran-launches-nearly-30-missiles-and-drones-at-uae-today.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQbEtmcldBb2JsM1BrQ2pUdFpRS3JVZTZmSXBjZ0R4WHVqS201OTVJcWFHQ3Q1eVU1WERjTkx4bjM1MmprVGV4VFdVQl82TkdjOTlzQkpybmpqQ1lORGZjMy1vRWR2OUxhOUVlRjR0VmxJel9lT1ZySGZzdDZ0THhDVmhELTljbXZvV0dzWWRHVFVWcEx1?oc=5
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPbWJzdnNvOUlTV2Iyc2tVaVJuTjh5ZmJNb3JWLW9SemFheVo5OGRObFZ6MkVuSGRvNzE0ZXMwdEJfOGh1NWw1MTloVXQyZlplTG1GQ21zWDN5MXA3WmZEa0hPek1XS1k3a21sVTlCQlR0UXR5YTJ0WTV2Vnk5Z1pSR1FDRVg?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/opening-strait-of-hormuz-will-probably-require-us-boots-on-the?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-22
2026-03-22
进展要点
- 美国政策矛盾：特朗普暗示缩减军事行动但增兵，政策方向不明增加市场不确定性。
- G7可能联合行动确保能源供应，但成员国协调和具体措施待观察。
- 欧盟加速天然气储备以应对冬季需求，能源安全成为优先事项。
- 伊朗坚持对抗立场，外交对话前景渺茫，可能继续军事报复。
- 北约需修复内部裂痕，否则联盟有效性将受质疑。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市承压
能源价格飙升 / 企业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产抛售
北约内部分裂 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动增加
来源
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOenB5SlRRNUV6NHphaFY0R0lraWlzNVVJMTU5UVRlZGlGZnJMTnRuQkthQTljUkZ5ZDRxbDNJanJ2Y19LWUJqdjV2WXUxdXpoc09HcTU4NmZhS1dqc2ZnTlFiaFBjanRmZlNoZzlybjJKNGxQVHRCOHdXWHNkdUFyUGdDenkteUF0dXgtM24xcnBTd0NZZnY5RVJmXzIzN1ZxN2xGNklUNktzMmJMcUhrYtIBtgFBVV95cUxNR1RCUHlVcnJ5R1ptMFBMMWtxa2l2SERnR016ZEJBY0xXZENsSWoxcXowRmVLNTZ6MVg4UjNQR2FfUUlQdXBYWmZFQ2NjdUZ2WmFEaUdGSjJYSng3SGRiN3JYSFdvMHhvMjJOdGQ3YXhNcEo1SzBsbDFZZ3pNOUlUTVViQ1J3WFlPTjZ6ZWg4UVBTRFRZWTVVSFdxWXh4amVMMWx
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-natanz-nuclear-facility-hit-by-us-israel-tehran/live-76462692?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/635767-iran-war-destroy-nato/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQVEZnZGJQU0pGcTExb2l3ZWh5SGNLeXJZdGI4eHJneGRxRTVuM05INXEzWWd4V3NNRTNXMnE0b2diQXZCRFNqTGNyVTBLMDhRdU5iakVqRjhSd25VRHVqX05xcDNYVnlkbG9QdkY3TklXa0Z2eVEzSGNBdXktMzh2blRtUU1odzRpS3prV0V2VQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-iran-military-attache-and-four-team-members?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/iran-strikes-towns-near-israels-nuclear-site-in-escalating-tit-for-tat?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOR2lrdEJGdV9VNWlrWWNzbFJhMlZTbDNPSjFmNzJuODN3MzBodndkd0I0dHZvWDNDRDc5SnYtdDNMVkpRaUJJNEtjc2xzdlBNelBjekNpT2Z4aFktUGRpdmJkQ0VBNGVVQUJDY2ZWZTh2SGRIc2Y5c3dxSXBIVVNFOG1lUHNPUQ?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNYk5oblh1ejY5YnJGbDFTQTUyaXZ2MDV6QUJRU2pPemM4bmJQVWowd0NsT1hxbmRSa1JXX0xKWkhPSVV2T05ySXZJNHJPQ0I1VWdtdlZZQ1JVU19NbjhuMkU5T3JKVWFUZmZZenlBZHlteUtWdm5uc2FMX251dUJRVzZpdU1ETThVVU1ySEg3U2VLeHBraDBVTUNTMFBjejl3NTRrUjZveFBDNGQ2YXM3MGl0VE13cVFsT0xjOWlVeHBXS1Rt?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/state-of-emergency-declared-as-iranian-missile-hits-arad-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/us-says-it-has-crippled-iranian-threat-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOZTBKLU8wNmJnX2wwQmRDQmUwXzFFOGN5a1NFU2NBckQ3ZUV0SWJPNkYzRERhMDVBNHNmWDNWNnZUeFNkRnZEbDd3cG9CN0RlaHJmUVhQc0RRZWFMMWJQV2gxdEZ2bXBXdlBNYXhoQldEcTVMV2EtRXByWlVrbGdYcmZmSzZtMW5iVF9kNnRxWUV3MElMMGFtcFlLYWd6LTgyWVlHYXBuWTB4UzRDMkhV?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNYmRtY3N4SWpBdERQM2sxSk50ZWVsN1Q3ZmstTDdCM0dNM0dsaW80WlliTTAzQ1oyOWdXZEZIek4ta2JQZW9XX3lmTkZhalM5SVFhQ0IwemdETWhLN1k3T3YtOHc1Sm9jSGFHSnNQbVhRdG01bmFKRmR6QnBCV1VoR1NndEhTTWFnekFLWlN4cEJ3ZUZheVVEYmtCRnRKXzhGZ1RwWUt1ZWNUendWRnZaMmRjMDlTYjREaGJrMGZrbHg4QQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9PY0h2QzNpNTdxaGI5eWJ5SE05US1rMEdQX213MGdIeWF6eFB1bFBxQWZUM1RjOEpBQm9NeEpHekpXZmZLWldjMmN1bllEZk5jUktTeWxsb3ZIMXp2?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxORmV1TE01QU9sR19VLVR6aURXTzAtVFV6dk90b3FTOXZtcnZQYkM1bjVheTJBVklNbFhpVE54dDFrT29KWl9FZ1B3a3RqdmJXMkktWVluQzBSMlM1QlhmcXpLSmY5T0M4VFpzWElIeF84MXVsRE1LdFIyMEozVjZmd0w2WDl3MmM5eUZTcExPX2VqOGdDZXlSQ0liLUlwY0JZ?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE1jRGZTUnJBRzJkVGdEbHV6TVlzbU1IS2cyeWt4UjhsUms5QVRWX20ydVVkWVN6aWlzOFdMVVhWT3JOT2sxS2J0aU9FLUVjSDRCRS16MEttQnJydzZL?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOV0ZCVlJKLTM2NFJwX3ZJT1Y1aXNwNW02eXl5dVJvZXU0QnBOM2lHakgyaklXLUVnX0NLVlp2M3FVRHdueEp6TFdUeHVYakI4Rm53Y3V2YVZBU0pVWUtyeWp1S2phNDZlTHNid1lvSG8tSld3S1M3UzZqSTNSMXlrbmxsX0FtMTVVblVLbHR2YTc4YTNUQTk0SXVCYWVzcjAtVnZPMXoyNVBBb0JyeTY0aE1Uck9YQQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQMGpleDBJbHI1bVNsXzZGSDZRV0xqV0dnOXV6ZHlMRjRmSFhHMDh0bXJOT3ZoSnJ5NEdzMFY3SFdFeDE1S3VMakhJa2o3aXZoT05zcnpCcXcyQlp3dzVjVElOU0dUdVl5WXo0TUdvRzlLd1pUOUR3YVhCT0ttc2FKUl9NS3FGd2t2MEZtUmdlTUFlejRoYzR0MDRlWnBwakw1UnlheEx5LS1fX005UzhqM0Z2UdIBuAFBVV95cUxNT2FDODNFRkZtSkgxNk5adk93MEI2aTRvdXR3VDZFZkRiYURzN0lRTGdHV2JlRGxWb1liTzVFX3lzLUpaTmJUYnZySmxSbG5rUlBVTmN0aDhzYkY3TXhIdjljd0NvT2dGQWczbXFwMEl1MHBxa1d1bXlxM28ySG8yb0VLU1I4aFZkeGJweHRnR1JRNVlCM3QwYS1Hd1V1bE1
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQWXNaYUpMSHBaQnM0a2Z2MGlfOUg0RmJMR09TSUE5ODVPQ2pqTG9JVVJBVFJyQ2RZYlgzZEhLRUFOdkpYTWRLc1owYUptMjNfQnFfcmNlankxTWdUbzF3T2hQSHp3bTF3cVlSbW1EVkdsVV9lZlRoc2JRM0t5aGF1SG1ZTW84YS1raUt0WGQwNG44YnBzMGljZEFVWmJkZ9IBowFBVV95cUxOUGY4SXRpMGJyRm5UUVVsU1J5NF9OeWxUWjc3dDFyWDZGUi1OWC1uRERQNWc3RFFNX29WTUtReGwyR2JmdHdZZ0JvSnVpZmZJVVNIRnZOQTl6VFBSaTc1dmo2aWN1bVBaS2gwbEtaaGlXSFU3VUo4VnZUMkVwa3NvTGk2YVpSbm9QQ0VnRENsSnp6TE80SmpaeUVyM2ZPclpnTG53?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/eu-urges-members-to-start-storing-winter-gas-as-iran-war-causes-price-surge?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635748-how-far-could-gulf-conflict-spread/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNVWlPb3NHWEZYUV9FTjBCVndXbFNZVnFyWXRNbHJDU1JnNlRXbmhqb2g1UjR5a2xQcmNIZWJCMHVKelA1YXk5NEFnTmdfakhETnUxUmVhazIxSTNUUmtHTVpJMklkOHdMUEVHZno1cEJ1NGREMTBURTJEOTV2Zy1YYU5YaURjb1RqcEhMYWxiWFJaeWxVZFBIaEhhZ2pxOTREQTR1TmFPRlJoMDBCeWUyWkRoU1Ftd0NGVkY2dlI4dnE4UQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-teheran-sieht-keinen-anlass-zur-diplomatie/a-76449132?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/israels-regierungschef-netanjahu-der-iran-wird-dezimiert/a-76447499?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/us/politics/battle-for-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-us-israel-choke-point.html
- [26] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/opinion/iran-war-trump-lying.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxQOXk3X1NwMHZYN0w1dmM3eDZkd1FVeDFLM2tsU0V1eGhqdE9RTmpPZ0RKb1NvdlM3VzlON2R3U3RzQU5vbEZHT18xQU0wQkZFZVZPQ05XUW5rS1lsdS1wQWhpaTBoTlZpNzlhYzZzN3R6R2szOHZjd2UtUklKMUNERWJkaTgybkFXbTdXOG1ta1RRQlFOaFU2bg?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/uk-says-iran-missile-attack-on-diego-garcia-failed?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQV2FMRkxCdzFTXzRNTHYyOWhyTXo3TDJ3b3M0MmpRMjRvVlNLRG1FMGNyUFQxRWFoNlRNbDBaYnA2Z1ViRVM4dmZuM043d0FZR3gyUkUzLU10NjdvRE44VU9ST3h5cGdqVmo0ZGdjWHBvcUM3ZmVjaW1WZzMtNVY3aHpFNXQ5Qk84V29vYU1renF6SWdJcTNxSkFGbEs2Zkg5ckwwV0dVc0E4Y3d4Yk5ydVNsZjRPWDVwYTkzQkJ2MHFLRXVX?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104133-war-update-43-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-most-intense-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
2026-03-21
2026-03-21
进展要点
- 美国解除部分伊朗石油制裁，旨在增加全球供应以稳定油价
- 美联储关注数据中心推高通胀，可能维持高利率政策
- 七国集团协调释放战略石油储备，应对能源市场波动
- 国际社会呼吁缓和局势，但军事行动持续，政策协调不足
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 美联储政策收紧
能源设施袭击 / 天然气价格飙升 / 工业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 股市下跌
地缘政治风险 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 全球资产配置调整
来源
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/03/19/joint-statement-leaders-canada-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260320-guerre-au-moyen-orient-faut-il-craindre-un-choc-gazier
- [3] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/20/42592
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/635536-iran-israel-qatar-war-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE1aakJWRHJxUEJERGhITlRxS3ViX19sYlltZVl4ZVBLMU93bFJ1Q0k5SWtpWFBUazlHN2x2bU5GdXcxM0dyMU82Qm9tQzhQTnZUVEZtd2xn?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-considering-winding-down-iran-war-but-rules-out-ceasefire/article70767398.ece
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-donald-trump-erwaegt-nach-eigenen-angaben-militaereinsatz-gegen-iran-zurueckzufahren-a-ada3a0c1-bf0d-44a1-a66d-48a23b3223ff
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-trump-says-us-close-to-meeting-objectives-opposes-ceasefire-with-iran/articleshow/129709333.cms
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260321000353315
- [11] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/uk-allows-us-to-use-bases-for-strikes-on-iranian-missile-sites/article70767389.ece
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE02b180dHpSREozbXl6aUtXazlWMWVsX3FRUUQ2ajZBUF8zSk8wUnMyLVBQTXNWbGRSUlNObzNFYjQ3MXdfMTVkZGQ5eExKc19VT3B5RQ?oc=5
- [13] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/jerome-powell-says-blame-data-135528565.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQbzljM25ZTGhrbUF5R2RCbXF2SEFmS09GRGNoUHBaci1yQUwtVjZ4N1hMWXdEbGFpUnR2a0VEdzlFa3dBODllYlFyMnBtYzE1ZmdVcV9vdUNoX2hPeUZoaFQ4dE4tejhrY2lGRFRUX0NmUXhDaTVzRG9jUFJjVE9QYWZZZHp3Vi05ak1IQml1LXQwTTE3OElXaEppaHBQSWpVT0NRTnRvVGk?oc=5
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260321/945422910d2849e09b2b921213e0d9f5/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxOdWxHRGNTTnpjZlUxTS12aU9UalFlaWtfblctTVluZFJlaTFyRU9SWGM0d3FtZVAwTEpQaWhqT09iUWpaLUNSbkt1eXJlVnB3UmRGUlZ5QjZYSEhOTGNGWHZ3TmJMY3UzSk42azZ5dlo1MmhsSnBybnJuNERfbnpNSmNINTFBOTZEb0FUUlFwNk5HTGhFa2xremlnQUNjUlVGS29uVkctZUhJeTVZaVNUQ19kMi0xUWVyeXVscVVRR0x3TktfTGJUbg?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxORHZrQk1BTFNOV2h1Y1FDV2pPeV9BeHVvVnZNWTdxOGlpWnBCOFlHQnhtamcyUW1tREd6SzVOSmM4UXZ5UjJXWGFHZ0tSZmNacG9jWlJPanIzTm1ETXBlbHZJMmo4b1lvWnFzd3NmaDJHaGxIZy1MSy02cHQ4bE4zNFJSZVlQOTVTTDNyS2dBTC1uMFZwTHg1OTJvSXpQbEZlTVVGdmdveFhXcHVEdW91bGlPd2FmMWlaU0tZ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/03/19/declaration-conjointe-des-dirigeants-de-lallemagne-de-la-france-de-litalie-du-japon-des-pays-bas-et-du-royaume-uni-sur-le-detroit-dormuz
- [19] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1048858/irgc-iran-nyatakan-juru-bicaranya-tewas-dalam-serangan-as-israel
- [20] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/ran-threatens-global-tourist-sites-as-us-boosts-forces-amid-escalating-war/article70766856.ece
- [21] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-usa-west-asia-trump-netanyahu-live-updates-march-20-2026/article70764069.ece
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-authorises-us-to-use-british-bases-for-strikes-iran-missile-sites-targeting-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-/articleshow/129708297.cms
- [23] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260320011500315
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/20/military-movements-indicate-trump-is-considering-iran-ground-operation?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/20/aje-onl-aj_tt_irn_whatdoeseudo_av_v2-200326?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4103929-russian-forces-intensify-pressure-across-multiple-frontlines-as-weather-shifts-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36rny6xgppo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPSnQ0UDZwS2cyZlZwNFoyVF8teHlLb0Ywekt0TlQxdnFFeXVDRG44THZJMHltMGFSa3dGV1JVc3Y1SlJVUm4tM25RWVM4SDNmcXByZkZidTkwcmpaZEx1Y2R5NzRXU2lPZnhSQkVYUDhva3Q4X3Myc3p2Tl9PNGdNOHJoa25kQ3NyUlVKSWg0Q2ZZaEN1Mzd1dkFlaXg4cVQ0LVdSeDNTX0JZd9IBrwFBVV95cUxOU3VyWWdnczEwTGhoUkJGU21DNUQzVnlCelhSbV83MlQzR3NzYVlpYTQ5UmRzcXd4VTB1QUtjd1NDUldEVEc3akhFVzBCdDZCS1pqbHROMmFKVnBDOGp3eURMcUxTajNxcFRyNjh6Ynlrd2hRbGQ2cWxNci1wbE53SWI0bkVBYTNPRVRFRm9MODFXNnNCWlUxMVhJLVZ6UzZJcWdTRFVkQVJ
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOSTQyRFM1dE03MXExaXc0LUJRcEdMTlhJSXFIbTRwSVdKcGVkbVJmUXdzQ2FELTJydXVKVXNhV1RIdXdhdkpac2lJeWl4VGNsXzV1dHMyMHpEMmdrbkVLQXByZG5PRlB4UjZ4UkhieGhmZ0tzdXdJTGxUNXJERXlBQUN2dVFXR3ItNTFnMEktdzZuOUQ4ZTRRMDcwcXNxZkJkTndjbWdzd2doVnNkTm9fbFFpR25QSzA2ZDFGVmRMNjhzbkxZVTM1TUI4M21NaVVPM1lKVUJIQ091VHZz0gHiAUFVX3lxTE4wSkFiaXg0MVFmOGh1MEN6b0N5V1FSZUVqb0FiUzNtZy1Qa3dRT3VHaFNqNzRRYUt4aUE0ckU2S0kzQXlhZWtxZXAzN1R6eFBBTEJPYlhYS0R3UlpTV0pqb1hFT0hiMWxDRld4cG5BQ3Jab0EyYnR
2026-03-20
2026-03-20
进展要点
- 美国财政与军事政策矛盾：财政部拟放松伊朗石油制裁以稳油价，而国防部寻求巨额战争拨款，两者效果可能相互抵消，增加政策不确定性。
- 美国国会成关键变量：2000亿美元战争拨款请求面临共和党内部分歧，通过与否及规模将影响战争持久力和财政前景。
- 欧洲坚持独立外交与多边主义：预计将继续与美国的中东激进政策保持距离，并寻求稳定自身能源供应的替代方案。
- 全球央行陷入两难：能源价格上涨推高通胀，但地缘风险压制增长，主要央行（Fed, ECB）可能延长观望期，而部分新兴市场央行（如菲律宾）已开启降息周期。
- 能源干预工具待命：美国释放战略石油储备（SPR）的可能性上升，成为平抑油价的潜在政策工具。
关联路径
中东能源设施遇袭 / 油气供应物理中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策更趋谨慎 / 增长预期下调
美国政策分化（增兵 vs. 松绑制裁） / 能源供应前景不确定性增加 / 油价波动率上升 / 通胀与增长预期模糊 / 资产定价混乱
美元指数大幅走弱 / 资金流向非美资产 / 欧元、英镑等货币升值，新兴市场资本流入压力减轻 / 全球风险情绪局部回暖
地缘冲突升级 / 传统避险资产（黄金、美债、美元）与战争相关资产（能源、国防股）获得资金关注 / 市场内部轮动加速
来源
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-last-24-hours-show-a-prolonged-conflict-could-do-calamitous-damage-to-global-economy-13521949
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/635540-israel-iran-chain-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPWmJURWNuNE1qQXlDVW9CZ1VsdXg5bFFDazhKdTczM2FNcS1BRzB4YTNSbVcydkZQWFJ6OEZlMk5EbzFzVnpOUlNDVnZQd2hVc053d1QtR2pBUHBPbl8xNzVNVnBtWEdtVFc2RnZldlVvUGU3Z0NUY2QzU1Z6TEd1c0tDUWNhOGlDSExHQ25ydUZSMmloYncyVF9HMWRLYTTSAaQBQVVfeXFMT185TFFjVUItV29qMHhGRmlSRWpMaU9oVzV6RHgzYk0ycjJLZFBHNlRITXhQbWlzdFBNZ2p2MW9BaWJsekJxRHhvTWVPYmRwdWhhTk9lUXh4WDBOZXFtajhuRjN5QWRZNE5OMHhUWndXa3lZQ1BxZFBwbXR2bXhUWndzQ1ZLa1cwRjlydzBHWTFERjExeUs2bTFySzYxd0w4VmhZTVU?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1wM0VKYWFMRnNkN3VCZkwwU0RqdUJadHhzTnVpeEdwaFFBUENvcWlEb0dFTTFmWXQxZDBnMmFXcFN4SjJuMzlfUGt5QkhBNjctRWFQb2lDZjJKZXluVWhhT0lMSkEtRzIxRnRrcXAzNE5nU19MQXVIdw?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxNVFZrODBQekpaMWh5Z1ZGbmlGcjZwNUxzb3BQOTlmQlpIVmgzeHZmZFRTUjk5QldEbDVDakZjZWV1aVEzOThxVjc5cjVsaWl6cFNPRmZBa0o0eEVSU21kcHNISkJqUS1ZNGVibkJZUTJzdzVNYy1lZ2FwZ1JkN3Vlb1JKcWVobzQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQSW95TzhWVVJJWG50bTRTME5QRHJqeTM5TW95ZXhHTGJwQW9mY25FaXJCUVhpb1ltc0NkX0U0OWV2Z3lVSkxfN3lha1JLNjRFQ1NfQ19MUTBQRENKdFVNbDNZNkd3VGlQcXhFXy1MWmVaaUt4Uk1kY2hzUXRMb1d4WHh1cFdyZmgxbmg1XzBvNkd0VFJ1VlhLQ0VDdjY2RFBxaVlIYlhqZktHODR6WUhGeA?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/635572-invasion-incoming-lebanon-braces/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/635565-eu-energy-tsunami-dmitriev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2k3jgy9vq3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOak42eXk0ZnZVMURLQUp6N29pWFp4LTFydHpLQ21XUTNMOUI2LWdiXzRKUGpjS0hlZ2NhZ1VBb0N1M0o2cXpzcllFTTRPUy0yalZRbTl5aUJrZGFkTmFLSXdRSmZFdy1TelUzOXRobmFVbnQ1TEJlaFIwZURrTjVJMWw2eXgwVmFKN3hVNWhiQm5JbjNqRUdqcDUwRjFJTkFBMUU4UXA1Y0VwaGpRdzZVUjFQbw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOZm05M1lGcFZGVEVReFcyb3pUWjlEdjRhVHNEeHJYNGhMSHh2b0JLVVZ3eGFzdFNRcWFxekR0clBLNVlYRjl3VFNLYTZ3ZEZNRkwxcUdOamdTU1UzWGVQVXJ2SVBCYTJabmFfdEowZkk5SGotUzUzT0lPV0NSQTN4eUpNclg3QnNpQVpZ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/netanyahu-says-irans-uranium-enrichment-abilities-destroyed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOY3NCMFFRSk1hc1p3enhncl9PTEFaNk5CVzh6MUdONFhWajhyX1oxUmlPT2I0akNjM2hYeHQzQ2NEdTlaZm5EVkxSdEQ0RnlpOE9TRG4yZkhpNTUzRWlFdUcwa3IzdGhZeGsya0FqTWN5X2ZUV0JlQ3l2Sm9RQTk0RXN1YUZqRWJob0wyS0hIOXpzdWxHMm1yRUJvWHA4d1dWMFp3MjV2cWhkNEdDVEpmTFRoaVJ6UHdfRHBKTEdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/19/how-will-israels-decades-long-assassination-policy-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260320/aa83628e1d4b4717abc8aeb37835e488/c.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOd2Y1WG9fV0tUOExiVW44aHZJS1pKeHZxXzA4TE1kUFdHOHN2YVpnXzFWdFEwSmZQMElYV2FHaHYyUy0zcklRLXRMN2oxTFZ6UThXdnZHTWI3Z0tfdHNtUW41RUxfUVFnbXdlTVhzNkREWC1wSDFiRDBCWHFvRzh4T195Y0FTR1pUTEhOSmJucTNKNWxYRER1NWdyZW84MVB2S1NTRnhzSFZGUkQ2N3A5QdIBtgFBVV95cUxOZDBjWTNKZ2pMMmdmd1dJVm9GbkR2ZDVFQkxBSDA4SXpQODVMNnM5M2trRV83N1luZFJXTXBlNUU3Nml3SDhub0xWQkRvaUlmMVNJTlJ3UHNPcG9WdjNLbUxKWWdaaGpLSTRibXpQNlBNX0JrcFpINDhGS1NBWG1fR0ZKUGtiNkxjUTZlTGw2eWRZMDJjZ2ZpNzRPcVc5cHViU3I
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQUGZKYzlydEdoTGdkSkRqbzg1RU91VzdKY05qdGVPa05CcnlWdGtYS2I1Y0hhZkRUWlZIdlBKNlctaHYwNVJzellDX2t0cTZHNkFMTklvS2Q0d2xkQ3N0MjFPN1hKamczZGdwU09RY2FtSy04bm1OM3JTMk51YTdJZWFNUDRxdmJNWHpkOUlHdlFwZVVUZlN0ajdvZEZ3NzFlclg2NW9tbHJ0V3lkc1HSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlpBU1JtbG5EM0tmTXprTloxZW1vRXN3d1dHcHYtUDVManJFS09abUpjS2dONzY0SlJBS21fcjBmdU1kYzc0d0NhaHp5NzBBbkdkTWYyWHhmOHk5M1dhdUZDT0JiWVRDQzhQby1jUVJhM3ZnalBjZHNHT3VNX0l2bXpqNmw0cjZzNTJKTmNEZVJBeHpiczF0YnZYcHY0NnRzSXhGbmR
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/trump-invokes-pearl-harbor-to-defend-surprise-attack-on-iran
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA1REoyQjZ2WDdyZVdTeVZsVTN1TTZfUE5wdi14QVZyU3RyblAzLWkwNXdibjNVaDZpa3BSOWxBZ3I0MzdRUGp5Z0N1ZWF4YjktZVBkODhvalNTUkRYTWxQMzM0Njlxd2s?oc=5
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/635548-who-nuclear-catastrophe-iran-us-israeli-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635550-us-help-ending-unlawful/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635571-saudi-arabia-threatens-military-action/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/smoke-rises-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel-oil-refinery-in-haifa?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/irans-strike-on-qatar-gas-facility-will-reduce-supply-for-3-to-5-years?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://unric.org/fr/onu-et-la-guerre-en-ukraine-les-principales-informations
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/df75ca68d5a7da27.html
- [29] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/b4a912bebbbbdbf0.html
- [30] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-debate-us-bases-military-alliance/a-76414229?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
2026-03-19
2026-03-19
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率不变，未来决策将依赖通胀和就业数据，中东局势增加不确定性。
- 美国放宽委内瑞拉石油制裁以增加全球供应，应对中东冲突带来的油价压力。
- 加拿大央行维持政策利率在2.25%不变，区域货币政策保持稳定。
- 中东冲突可能迫使各国调整外交和能源政策，包括国际协调和制裁措施。
- 美联储提及中东局势对经济影响不确定，可能影响未来政策沟通。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
美联储利率不变 / 市场预期兑现 / 美元稳定和全球资产重新定价
避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市和风险资产承压
地缘政治风险 / 区域安全担忧 / 避险资本流动影响新兴市场
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
- [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318b.htm
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNR3J4NDFISFF6T0kzdlJHRVk2OXBLYzBLOU5vd2Vnd0E4aVJ4UFlnbDVWVk95VVg1RkotVnpfRHp3ZTR0NlBaeHRLQkJmN2E1b1hJUWtoOFVPNVZSa2wzTC1HOTZsVXQ4RlhvZjJpSEU1UUxzcjFwdzE1YzdYckU3MkZCVUhCZUcwRVJRZkJYRm1wMDkyRkt0WHRXbHU1RE8wcTJPRQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1tVnlOakNMOWNBeHY4ZEZ2YUNJcm1fa0lwYUp2enhhMk42LVU1YTdVN1Fkc3VRUzJrQ25iTE1BWW83X3g0TzBXMkRycTdNcmUtcU55SEhOX3A0T1gyZ1liQ1hfUnNOWS1JLU1hd0RQa3g1SUpMUG43Ug?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPVHE4X3NRdDRKd0g0Nnk5ZHB6WlFRdno4WmxLaEllMzQwM2R5aEozYzhXbFAwOHNYOVNyYmpidTc5WTlxdnNUWkdUS3ZNdUdmMGxYMVdjSnl4ZXpEZFQyTlJPSnAwU1RQOXQ5SWtlNjVVNEZFNS1vM3hvMGVvemhteUwwdGlWQQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/opening-statement-2026-03-18
- [7] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE02WGtUSTZvd0JlblNhWEZSOWhnb25vOGduUnZNdXM2NlFoVzJjcjRZa0lyU3NxX0FvTmxNRjc5d1h6Z01wYnZkQmREUVl2RmNZclhVd1N3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589119.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589120.shtml
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPMjVEUTJYMC1BVTVmVHlzdWcwRFZYMy1jbjByTHVuNUNEbVoyTzBweGNKTkhLM25WMTl2OHZaNXdEOHZQaFF2bTR0OGV2RFRxbTVNUjNoTFdnYnowcDlrRnFjbXZKS1RnN21FRUxPczhQUXE5b01QNTkzSXJRdzBpMlZkMzY1VVEzRE03X3J6a0FZaThfb3d4RG5vY003Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/e04604ffe1ac44368326e7851d83b5c9/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/635458-qatar-iran-israel-gas-field/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/us-fed-keeps-interest-rates-steady-amid-economic-geopolitical-uncertainty?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNRmVjTnI1V3hDTXFoeDg2b3N2dXFHN2RNSS0zMmpjSHEtZm1uMVNtc2dzeXpXcHZZS0sycllGcVRuVVE5Si1vS2JFV0JnbXJGbVhUT3k5dU9XeUlLNklUbC1JQmlOUWdSUms4eWxHVVlhM0x5WEJuRVVaODdoNmVmcE9PUURyODZfTXI5ZFh0RDk2MzQzcVlGdG00THh6WjNESWFv?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/oil-prices-surge-after-israeli-strike-on-iran-gasfield-irans-threats?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/18/israel-attacks-irans-major-gas-field-in-new-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/qatar-says-iran-missile-attack-sparks-fire-causes-damage-at-gas-facility?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5lc3FVRHNRZUVLakw3bUdsamVoWi16ejB4UHM2STgxQ2ZRcy1BcGFSQk1aUF96cWRuN1Rpa2wwcjVSSlBKMmxuTjRqQUZ0WnJleHNENHg1SnRudw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/c4c0f387210b408aa707a72cdffef069/c.html
- [21] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/84180bbbcd7e8151.html
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36364d06x3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/4d2a6afdb40a47df8b989ac5bd9813be/c.html
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2d1dz14k51o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPYV83RFlCb19LTWxsUnRHQ09lYmloQWthRHNMX0wzbWNpbU4xVFZEOGdUaDJWcFVlNjFDQXlyMHpuS2RCNnJpbk1lQS02bE9KZDlnNjdkZzNjc3E2aHdNLUtFd3pOT0dfQmZ2WjFOelRyODYwT1lKaHVEcUE1aVp5U0I3N2lQOEZ6b0JrcHhYY1lHNDZHa3hPLWdCdEg?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNbV9scnVOenFHVWJFYWdZYTFrTWVHM2lPLXdQRGF3azFrTFNJVVUwYXFCYk5lUk9oWi1wSTY0dVFFeHBhRHltc2ItemNZeXByS1A5TTFoRWdYR20weUhaZi13OWszX1ZKdi1oZ0VsNUd4UWM5RHNyYXBnRnNnVjlwMlVIRzU4ZG1UZ3VpVGhiclFhQy1oak01OVE4cDA3STRod2taQnkySQ?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWWZCT3pudllWSmc2Ukd6ZVNvQVhNaUhfS2RzMXlnLU1KVUxNeXRLQzFacWNaTVJBQ2liRXFIaHJwWjJrWV95WDB4Z3NzUUlLYWZYY3d3WENRZno5cWhoVDJyb2tOTmh6Y2dpRGFQU2EtOEVPNUJYekdMWHJGeW1LVk9YYUJKd2Nm?oc=5
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-iranian-intelligence-minister-killed-by-airstrike/live-76402968?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260319001319INl
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260319000114lZ5
2026-03-18
2026-03-18
进展要点
- 美国可能采取单边军事行动保障霍尔木兹海峡，但面临战略风险和盟友反对。
- 欧洲推动外交解决方案，避免直接军事介入，侧重与伊朗谈判重开海峡。
- 国际能源署持续释放战略石油储备，但每日仅100-200万桶，难以对冲结构性供应减少。
- 韩国考虑快速编制补充预算和宪法修订，以应对能源冲击和经济不确定性。
- 美联储鹰派预期因通胀压力持续，美国个人消费支出数据显示防御性消费者态度。
- 全球央行可能因油价上涨而收紧货币政策，加剧经济放缓风险。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡受阻 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀飙升
美欧联盟紧张 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
石油价格上涨 / 消费国经济放缓 / 货币政策收紧 / 股市承压
地缘风险升级 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流动变化 / 新兴市场货币贬值
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317215555sNj
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2164557d89594613a56d64d4fdd26f58/c.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nato-making-mistake-on-hormuz-trump-says/live-76387955?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQdUZpanFtQVFoMUo0RzVkazYxSjBackI3eWhlM21kQ0IzbG03RkxFa2UzUzYxRGJmN3dWSGlTZ0ZucldxaHlKanNaV3MyQ3RRaUhQMjdGT0xOQ0JVdFJuQzM4RS0tM0Y5MDBFUXhDa1VQemt0SWdUR05jOGJPN2RCWnJZcnkyNGFuMmhvc3NUNU42dkxJVDl4aHhmaElyZWRWUW9UbnZYV29OQQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588466.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588451.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588470.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOQVYwc3g1SHBTQUFKYTFtRjJKTDJXcThDbF93bUl2VC1yLUU2RS0teTdUUGpQV1I4S05YWHVyOWlicm9rS3MwV081LWlEQUt6blN4OGRZczBCNlFlOTVPZ3c4akNBcmFrSHBIMGNZV2k0emUxcmlhaWtZZW5BM2FWeHlvXzJfWFVtNUR3UUI5cVhubDRLVUdxaWJTVkNqY2l0?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxQc1RpU1hvdmJZaC1NNE02TlBBUE5uNFFndUJ4MmxlREZCZkhEOHY2aTkxTEota05ScXZ4ZXU1M3BscVUyNTJ4VnZJTVNYM1JHT3p0eUdTUGRsRmUtMlEyRzFPcTB1bEQ2QzlXOVhVVWVhQldBTEdIYk1OQ0hjMmtkbEp6MWcyaExoWDBEd0RiTEFNZU5uaG83alIwMNIBoAFBVV95cUxQRDFlVTY5TGtrN2lWSVFWdGhmY2FRcWZmS21mTm5xYnozZE8xQmVzNl95RXRBUjZuS29BdTQ4eGpKU1lPejBsNjMxdWFXSGEycUMya21WN24xUEYxN1c4YmZudURUUV9sLW5XN0VIYkV1eE03bXgtNm1fRDBRUjVQajlPUlRTbW1ZWUZoZno2cDVKT214cmw2UV9CWTZTMjAx?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260318080325mSr
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260318073426Hym
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/trump-says-us-does-not-need-strait-of-hormuz-help-despite-appeal?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/iraqi-capital-baghdad-rocked-by-powerful-blasts-near-us-embassy?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5tREFqY2plYjg1dUhxaDg4Yk1wV0YwMElCdGlkY0pzT0sydV9CQzNTWDllaWZEc0ZHMzVwbVp6Wk5MdjczXzZSUk85aUtvUExUNW9KWHZJQjBKUQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/4302adf7471c2579.html
- [16] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/f4a871322e6de0b7.html
- [17] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/c81778311ad21c48.html
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/635334-us-counterterrorism-chief-resign-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6AFBVV95cUxQTDRXZmp2NV93VjdiNXFHX1hVT3RUOVZZaENaX2g2NmNGOFFTeDZFb3ZYdnVrQjE0YmdtaTZxc0JJQ2l4UzFFQTh5a2UwTm5xd0hOZDJfZzJWdS1MUjZkNVM0OTU3cm1OQnozUGc2WU5BakhCVVBzUkZGMEQyOU5JeV9nYm44V0hNeDZzUmtMSHQxZVVvZlA5OUlFVE5qYkd3dDVJRXRCR3o1ME5rSDlLOEwzX1V2QUJGYlJncFZDZWt6cXJKX0hMbUczV1V1b0hMRElIU0RHemxEU205YU5sbDZza2lwamQ2?oc=5
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-am-17-maerz-israel-verkuendet-toetung-von-ali-larijani-a-148e4932-3432-49aa-af78-69f4531254d0
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24deezq6meo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxQdlhXdlMwTi03LVJFYktIVVRRMUI0QWpGcFdUQkMtYmY3eFBEU1cxT1YtblNDcy1FNGFQLWFzZ3V2N1N4b214LXcwNFQ0b0trNkpDWXY1M29oWUdSR2wxYVRFQ1VjZ0NyZTJFRDJ5T2ZGSU5YM3hSNm5GbWlMV2E4bDRMcEptSzJSLXlxUDV0Tm02N2tOQ1ptWVA3LW1ULTg3akZ3MktlN19FWlZKMjFUQmNjaTM3Mnh5cUNLbFg2b3JWQQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5481950/inggris-susun-rencana-bangun-gugus-tugas-untuk-buka-selat-hormuz
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNRDBZNlFoSEdzZVBFaWRZcmh0QTZuZU5wOXhkR0RpYl9XRlRCczFpNnhqNWJTaHczR3J1d2ZWZy1OM0pOTDAzT2Q4VE1Ub0s0eEg0d0o5U0ZXVlB5SFpuM1k0LVMxajVDRE0xSjlzTWFTM3lRNFZacVQ4YTJjTGREOGxHa1NMOXAwRGdzRGdrVWdsclU?oc=5
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10588412.shtml
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/635309-strait-hormuz-iran-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317214541PMn
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260317212732Gsb
- [29] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2e85c70d1e3f4e53a76f31f0fd6bfb22/c.html
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/17/the-us-israel-war-on-iran-is-shaped-by-religion-as-much-as-strategy?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-17
2026-03-17
进展要点
- 美国可能继续施压盟友参与霍尔木兹海峡护航，但多国拒绝，转向外交压力。
- 中国维持稳健经济政策，支持增长和全球供应链稳定。
- 欧洲寻求外交解决霍尔木兹问题，排除军事行动，关注能源安全。
- 伊朗可能寻求谈判或报复行动，领导层危机加剧不确定性。
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升
油价下跌 / 通胀预期缓解 / 风险资产上涨
中美贸易磋商 / 全球供应链稳定 / 风险情绪改善
中国经济强劲 / 全球需求支撑 / 大宗商品和股市受益
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQdWh6X3pJTzBFT1lrSTRtcU11Tnlza0RJcjRuU290SlFORDUwU25jbW9yRDJfNzgxdy16c0VkNE9FNE8xSzUzLU52UG5SbmJNR2hyeFQyUVpYMnBlQm1FMjhTUGZoZ1JuUlNSTFdLRkZYOHA0TXYwSm40RjBSNzVlUGJlak9uV0xHaHRjd2hFRS1BaU1BRTB0WGJNOVQ4ME1nQ0HSAacBQVVfeXFMT09HU2M2SDhRbkJNZnQ5bEtfRkxLa1ZMWjY2Nl9taWZNV3pfNVpqOEZQWEZncS1LRVc1UlZkNHczQ05TNHRaZzQ0YjFvNlZFTXhJTkM3SFViUmN1UUgycGdRNVlsOTJPamluRjJtWEZ0RnBUajkyOTBkVnlfMXEtZ2tUbmp6dWhRbXpkU0JJWDJLdWdLdWM2WmNwS1V3Z3k0ZkoyWUVhdXc?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/civilians-pulled-from-rubble-after-us-israeli-strikes-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-uae-crude-output-falls-142513245.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587900.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPQ0ZvaGZWQVNDMFIzMXI5NUhpMklaekpDc2hQdmtBT2JPcmU3ajB1NGdRR3R3NEVRc1BFQzNmZXh6RGNjaDVFc3pHYTFTNDJfRHg4OVdxdEFkOUZHMXlrNjZrdC1aZnFEX0xsdlFxRVU3RzlGVm1YTU5UMnF5MVB5Q0lmWHNJMWlU?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/17/iran-war-live-trump-scolds-allies-for-not-joining-strait-of-hormuz-mission?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNTnpRQ3lnb1I5aVoxZWdGWFZNQ0pHUjR6TzhRSFNkWTdwQlJhV0g3clJuUzgtYlVYOFRLVkU5dkZpLVNYM3ZRVjlqWUtSaUxVbFNsSE9QcldwcllnTTVQSEFkc2lxVkZaQm00TGlhWTk0aWc3Z2ttb2F2RURjSHZ3TGZaWFN1V3FOcy1jeWpsMkxod2EyZnZxbVBvcEJqRjhHUGYwSWt3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/02bbfec081c846b680c3488a1237b614/c.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/trump-operation-epic-fury-anger.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075910BRH
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075936Fc3
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587873.shtml
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-17/10587870.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587875.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587872.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNNWpWbzhtaHpYdUl3VmRyYmJzN0ZmSzhYV28xelo1OHpvOXRUYTR3aHVPbzdVNkFoMlNxRVo0alNHaE1zSm00ZXB2Ty1MSHExTklLMFVZTVo5LVljYmlBMFpWS0VfRi1sNzB4UVJaMlMyNVpDa2lPNkFrRUFJazBJUXJrdC1VRmozWXBQMTdFWmZpWVpiNWZoQS1QVXFqQWJHQk5xSjFuMWRRR05pdXd3OXotUmdaRGhGR2c?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/trump-claims-strikes-on-iran-prevented-nuclear-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOcXpYNzBzOFFQejJnR1hBandJdzVtMjk1NU9qMG5IWk80NHZrODBqN3V5dHJRSUYwSU5RRDNITmh5dXpuXzQyWU9jaS1zVUExXzNuSzUwYXpYVzc4Rk81bGhqU3liYU51WWI1MG1fbU9LX2lkTXBFb09wRUpxa25nTHIxMzViQkg1WDhTUVNiOGZkWms4NGRHck9QT2xKcjdvR3k1SDAwVUJ0VUE4V0Ffb0N3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-seeks-to-delay-meeting-with-chinas-xi-by-month-or-so-amid-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOMlRvSmdFeGxqMHZLY2NyZjI0cWc1UlEyTUNaRTR4WjlBWC1nVnNTRXVpQjhJWE9aWDUtWlUzTDZKMnp3WlZoOHByNmoycFczbldhWlFHNmp3S1VwNW9NN0EyeTRSQzliZkVuVjBleVhIUlc1dXNYanlCVHRMcTRpSE16dngzeWdPenpGeUk4T29Ma1JJaFpR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOM3NSSUFQSGc4THo3NHVTMWNSRkpoMnpnLXNvTk4yYlBrSXpydG0wY3k4NkdBMk40ZEpYaXRoQmtrTUFRTkVvdlFHQjd6aV9LMExGRFRGZENxQ1dFU1ItWm0tYTIyVndhcjVqSjFQVkFOUVhOeFEyRVpoQk9QdTVHRzFzLTBTaXJEbnR2Tnh2YVF2ZnF1SzZkRVRsYVRNeUt40gGmAUFVX3lxTFA2bTZUU0RVZUpCU2VzZlVCM0h2czluN2puTnJRZHltRURRMVFDZ09zZ1hHcDQ5ZlF1bXIzTzNicE1ybVNETzJOWDJKRW1oZ2ttNUZHc2NwVlZaYUpRUTFiTXRSSEMzbHVacGFZeXgwTTRmQnJPamdrMUxRbUo1UjNSNFNaSE1DTElhU1VIMVJyZzBxYXJRNlVoV1pSZDZadHlLTFk0b2c?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635249-trump-world-demand-iran-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/abeeed7f095443298ab1350ba00a80b7/c.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/16/how-big-of-a-problem-is-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-donald-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPWm9rX1NfdUFFZ1dZTXhqMGRyZER4ZFp5eXZwV0gwT3p4MEJPR2VQYTJrV18wWjdRMjBiVU5PMkJkUW16NTNnS201dlRBQVJSZjV6eWJhVFdkc2hWOWZyLTFlWmwwX1pPbmVsNDhLQ2duamxDeTZtZmtjUmtlSE5VODVhazFaYkgtcVJ2dzVRdWREaFpkQl91Yi11TFUzQk9TQkR3UjN4eXl6VG1vQVc1Vzg0blRnVFBJQ2RwSmM2OHBRYWZIUVE3TtIBzgFBVV95cUxOTFpwZ2hfM1Vaa01zcC1idm5uaVkza05RTldvdlJzTk04SW56TGFyUXpiRHJmb2xRc0xkUkhkbksxUzN4U1pXZElUS1NidHcxMDM1OGdUblJTSzJVMzI3NDdidDdkbmZmNDBnWk9fNnlqOVhyaDYtdkJ4UUJNbDJSaVREcy1EWks1WHR
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBmUWNHLXBpdldRMVE1S0ozRUpZTEk5TzNHRTlXbURfTnlBOHdQV1l6d3dHMm1mTnJxaUJGQUNKZm1UMV9ETTRaRXpRaw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/israeli-forces-in-southern-lebanon-as-ground-operation-announced?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-says-hormuz-strait-help-on-the-way-as-allies-reject-military-action?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/europe/europe-iran-war-trump-hormuz-warships.html
2026-03-16
2026-03-16
进展要点
- IEA石油储备释放执行情况将关键影响短期油价，亚洲立即开始释放可能缓解供应压力。
- 美国可能进一步评估攻击伊朗石油设施的选项，取决于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的行为。
- 美中贸易谈判焦点在月底峰会，关注关税调整和稀土出口控制的实质性进展。
- 海湾国家可能加强防空和航运保护措施，以应对伊朗持续攻击。
- 全球央行可能因通胀风险上升而维持鹰派立场，但中东冲突增加经济不确定性。
- 美国301调查进展可能引发贸易报复，影响全球供应链和关税预期。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
美中贸易谈判与地缘施压 / 关税和出口控制不确定性 / 全球供应链中断 / 风险资产波动和避险需求
IEA石油储备释放 / 增加市场供应 / 缓解短期油价压力 / 降低通胀预期和风险溢价
俄乌冲突升级 / 区域安全风险增加 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市承压
来源
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/635086-iran-us-kharg-island/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/moment-iranian-missile-hits-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9YYzNLRkJjdzFUMVNUS1hrQW5kSkVfYU5qa3ZpVnlwSHdDUDNDRU15NFl0OWpWbW9wRzVLamZ5bTZabUVZVHNycVhGdzJIRmxuWVZRcGxRamd1dG5mekRES0lUbUU0eUhEeUM3U2duVFk4V293MVM4WG1kVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10587266.shtml
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316092310T0U
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316091506CIc
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNeUxQQzY4eUc3Z05ZZ3JEdU1WTHBJd3VOejFrRmJCMVpFT3JMVDV3eHBBd0J4NmJpZVdtZVdGM3VYbGFZeHFIVkRlRjlzem41YWlVakNCT0tHb1NsTTNVTnd2X3NkcGZ2OFNSTlRnYlN6ZzhKSmw2U2ZvRmx2QWk4UGFIUlZVbjg4dXlVWEVMX0xyaFVRVDVsUGpqbUduSjRDZWFGTWhBdV9CR1FYX2c2VWQ5QjVoTnFEMTQ1THJZV2pQbDJWUVNiWdIBzgFBVV95cUxPaXFxN1ZrQnVwbzE0bkdhbFB0cHlVTzVIYUF3Y0UyNjl2amUzcE9qclFPYjFub2ZON0F5d1Rsek92OU9jTzNWWjJ4eEZOczdKMDlRUVNsMzVtQ2RqOWY0bXd6dVoyS2hGTXFBczZjNmxrN3VEdVR5aWctTk53TlNrcWpna3RVR2NWM2V
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/15/whats-the-impact-of-the-iran-war-on-china?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-16/10587332.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587321.shtml
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0dlvl086eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPOXJxSGdudjU3bzh6ZHlQLVJNdHVxa0pTZElnV0JxOHVSckd6Q0JaeTRGMDRFMHROYXpoWldOeXhIQ205VEQ0RlZCUkw0UGtmLXdFSEJyTFZicXVsVkRuUUVrc19tLTNiQ1d4Qml1cXhhLXVpRFRPLUx5cGFOOFFvbS1jajhTZ1BNLTZ6MkE2VkI4blQzWk1BR0N6Y2dOUWc1N3ZPTEluVkJrUGgzS1lqS29zT2V6T1NjLUQ1aElLdUY0ZHhNLTdJ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587318.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA3Qm0xZXZrSm9BVmhMRVNTQlRoSWg0MWtoeFNZN2ctaG41NDlhdUpsSnQ5V0hCd1JfSnhzTGdXNHE2Z0MxakhuVTJ4MHNZTHRVVG8ybzBsTDM1M2doQTcydXhEWUFOaGc?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316061843kmn
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316052639PnR
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxPY0hIVzdNUFprdVRNTkx2Smdhb2lyUjBwcUZQZmFmWjkzLWFYUy1nUGVOV3REMDVEVkQ0aFBQUVY3YklKZkpneC1yQUtjQjFrZDNodjBhelRZZGpWazJ4djZ4WkdEY2JzbnVKUVM1aXNaQUZwaG1HYXB6aHlta1U1M1ZYUTBvQUhnaFh6MkZveHpXdkdxMS1Ldzg1S2JLVTdZMk52WElKd1hWR0ZTTUdHb3NoS3Y5ZktwWENLRXhCbk8zTnE5b1Vnd04tbGhqQQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQdGo1V3dYMFh5dWE3ZXo1Q0VSSWVGWXZJZDZKUXBXQnVzcVhNRC1LallDSlNUTDVoTERHUnEyZkRyVDZuNzRVelI2Z1VqMEFHTzNKV2pQNWgtUlpZYU5HLWpSaE5FNFlkQXE2WF9DNF9OdDlTVjhQMUxUbG1vWVV2VTdZTnVWWWtVZTYyRTBFZTgwVllMMTR1N0kwRTlXTzl4YTdsSlk0WXF1RzhQS0tMVDRzSGEyMlVyQzFOcXpuS2hZd3N1UDhWbkRR?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1EMU5EeFZjbGR1OE9YRXdQVmFmVUVUNmlzcFYtckNmOEN4empraTY0UVFITmlJaVcxVWs5RDlvbG5VMWRVa3lMeHN1b00zYUliSW5hamdUTTRoUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/what-is-force-majeure-and-why-are-some-gulf-countries-invoking-it?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/trump-stark-choices-iran-war.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQV0EtVnVRd2FHeGJYUjAwWjlid01aVHNNVkdJS1pwR3NjNi1rX3RGNlZ3RG1xTDVUTWFVQ1psZnNRZHRIWFcwakgwejl0dnBWSFdoN2RsWENJUzFNXzZ1aUFaVmgyOWdwRHJXVFlpWTJrMTUwUnotbGxVcW8xQ2hKd19BaGhYeGN2QWxndGFlQU5XMzhmOFpRS0pLTkdBdjM4a3dmZGhCRktoSVE3LXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMT2tENFBrbVRMamozSlZrOTlMMkdNTnNYM2J2UTM4amY2bGdkWEc4ZUl0UUs3SW5tcktVTlRCUHFhcXVRd2RMcnJtdGtNTXpTWFNXOFJtQllxMzhhQmRFR1NQaDVMZFg3THBuZERkNmlmR0dqbWkwdEtNc0Z3anduaU9RMndnODVSMkVRN0RvTnNId3hKUHQ5TGZBUUVtVlFmOWFKQkd
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE4xZWdUQXhkXzVhT1RrLTBfNUt2eHoyOTZjbEJHNE9KbWhzWHBVbE1HbUJCclRSeWpZN3BrRXZKS2Ntczl5RVc4Sk1Pb1VCYzJXNjloLVZ5WmZqUQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcUlPUzlqMXVIeldBRVdicUxOLVRrVWpIWFRGMVdUS0s2RE5WRzg5N2pOaG9HRWVucTBxRGNyN3BXY0JrX05oS1ZfTGJ4UWhZYzlMaGJMXzVwM2xadXpETVdjOTFXQW9RRnJXZDdOQndVUE90aUh5YmIxdTJmcTVFQ2NB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603160250479UF
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316022052JtR
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316013532JZg
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxNekRxMzNpNEdXdXZMQWQwcFA5Ukt5Qlp0Q2ZrTWRZVGtQdHBWaUZwdE5CSzl5Y1Rkb1BtWGVJT3FfeklwTm45MlV3Nk9CTHVoV1JqMndtd1ZuZUgtaUxsTlgwMk1Hc19uZkx2dXlsRUx6ZjZUNF9aNUFscnc3S2V1c3hoSm9PUmc1TUJpTkc5SHFIeldONEg2QWlsamJ1TklsTVpSZm1Bc3Z4Y0R6RE1kanJBcmtvR3ItLWJFNVZR0gG-AUFVX3lxTE53c0htMGNhcldNaGQ5Rm5rVUhFS1V1OFU0XzFqYTFIZmdpcTR3UmtSQm1yNnl2aGVxT2Q1bF9kaHNkNEY3cUt4dERnMTFIZ0ExZ1IycW9pY05FT0s0bUN3eFJqcEF2QUhkUU5vQmZHeXdqOXRNWEhPQ2lkWUlEQWZsdDN1NFpWNzBDZnA4NHpHU3ozSDd
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101896-war-update-49-combat-clashes-since-morning-three-sectors-see-fiercest-fighting.html
2026-03-15
2026-03-15
进展要点
- 美国可能推动多国海军联盟应对伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡。
- 中国'十五五'规划强调稳增长和创新，支撑经济预期。
- 伊朗坚持关闭海峡，外交解决前景黯淡。
- 欧洲可能就黑海袭击事件提出抗议，但行动有限。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 运输中断 / 避险资产需求上升
地缘政治紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券收益率波动
中国政策稳定 / 区域增长预期 / 亚洲资产相对韧性
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTFA5TGhOa20zcEI5ZVlpWFJuZmVtWVYwbWk3TlpiUVZvMFJiSmhQX1NLdHl2UHBBU3VFc29sUGRRU05ZZ0F2SE5udHNUT19TdW85d1BILU5helJoNElpMUVBZlQ4bzE0RFMxVXlOY2NBamh4a01ac0RBZ0FCRQ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOTDB3elIzT25OVk8wQnFtMktXWW01QjFSWkNoS2JWZmlrRTE4c1djdFotRUlJWC1wbFRDM0pqMURMSk1SZGdZMjZrX0ozTE82SUFzZ2tjWHZVdm9qUUVMWUhfUVJSd2x5VGMwQ3NkM1dzdjcyel82WWlUamNIajdsdHpsQXZoZDd0UGluX0dLTQ?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVjZuR25oazhiV0ZmTkVXZVVLTGpUQWxpSWEzLWV6c0wxSlRZZHZYSVFvdjNTZk5LT2I4LTdPZ0lpNndSYUpRYUg0Rm1UYUVXSjEwZHJOb0RuU0FGaGtPLUJyb3cxQ3ZCVldPdEQ1dlZfWnlTdkJROEoxMk9YMVNudmJkX084VjhISWJ0cm50V3RUb3Iwa0ZDTzAzYU9HZzI2NGFMbXdR?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQVlQxTy1qRU0zZy1ZMlVQaExCcGNiamVEaWhudXBHR0dxREZ5VDlPUkRqNFdtME5NYnNqNGtmZlhmdUlhd3ZRX2puU2dXZUtOemFLaHVxUmJRSE5JVjhHdVNZMFZUbXRqOU9HSENmd09NMVJMZHEzTVZLclBMd2ExSlo5VDFBN1BLWXNITERKeTlGRGhWVjJRcFptWThFQk5uQUh5c21lbFJzbHJiMURrbzd6LXBOUQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/15/iran-war-live-trump-urges-world-to-keep-hormuz-strait-open?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10586979.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNeDhPbEdMMktxYWRDQXFlR3BrVU9uMWR4SlNjNnNZY016TGJ0bmo1OVQ3SWpDTVdVaVplX0c0UGtINjF4Q3JlVUpjMTVwY0VZcTFqWE1STkZCUTJRUjBXdWpVd2xnMWdNcnhpeVk5ejNtNGR3bXQtZ2xqdHVyZGd3WlFaRE9vNFJUbWlxY21fazEtbTRNbEx4dktlbXlsbmlmUXRRNlItODJFSXpqYkpiMW1fRQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101708-war-update-117-clashes-on-front-lines-as-russia-launches-68-airstrikes.html
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/five-killed-in-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall-amid-middle-east-conflict-13519726
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/us-israeli-strike-kills-15-at-isfahan-factory-iranian-media-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9MSHk4Wi0tRXM0VHh6c1Myc0NJakpvUnl5VllrbmtYcGM4R3JaUDVWNW9TdnVDWjlFMGRvXzlHanpiYlctTExOWnZHejBWTGp6dUJoRGpVQWpDYWNfZnVIZW1fZ01jSHN1Tm5wc0IyQWFQZFVNSXlhaA?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE4yNGQ0WUtDZ1UyalZ5eHdlQUhULW15STloeWVmYzhoWXJ3ZzIzOHlEaHhXZlNkV0c4TGZLcmxhNHJEVnF0WnUtX1Z4Vzk2NmZpMzcwNTFkY2ZhMXF4?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMNIBuAFBVV95cUxQRVFZU2ZINmRNeHFnWGx0aTVhZGdmNi1iYjN2RHVJWllXMEJURl9KbU9kQ01SYzh4TzRGNmZrRkhyLU9tYU5lYm14eEZfWkZTb21uRUFTNEZqdUYzM0Z6TVUya3JUbk1wdXFhcWRpclNiVFFMRTI4YnpGNkVma1ZjSWh3MnF2cE8xVDJCZ0VHbjRLZ1Q3WU03OTl2QjlKcm1
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/turkey-on-alert-as-iran-conflict-escalates-warns-against-provocations?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/14/israel-targeting-irans-security-forces-may-aim-to-encourage?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/trump-says-many-countries-will-send-warships-to-hormuz-amid-iran-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/us/politics/rubio-trump-iran-war.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/energy-environment/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-middle-east.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxORy1RZkVhX0NxZmRSZURTRHhKb3ZNZTVTeGwxeF80TGRQME5CUjV1QUl2VGN3ZDRyZzVBYU9EN3REakRockVuOU9pdHFBazJkYlhkYlZreUlJTnF2UVozdExpdGEyOGN1RlNFaG5TMFdmY0R3eDM2UGhNQ2l0M1MtaTcxdjNvMGtwMDA4Z1NMTTg4S24tU056dmpibVUzVFRSTnhRUVY0S3Q0V1BpV1l5NG0zMA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxOT1BlRjRRZVpteFFkc3l6MzBORl9aNXp6NlZINWNGdmtucmx4STAwc01qRXBrcXpNY0d1Y05TZ3hzUkpXYk9YYnlkZWw5X3lad3VVQzVzam5XVFFuYUlTR2dYVDZJcDl3SEx1dnYyLU93VVlYV0pmZmFQOU5TQ0pGWlFyXzRabFltSjkxY3hKS2dxNTlYd1pBS2s2ZTlSc3NUYjFmOWUwV3hlY1duUTlySVBoY25zeDJTRWJiaE5xa3c5M0VaT1JCZVNscHBlOU4wS0NTQw?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxOSHlZVXQ2V3h4UVlRaVg2bDJaNmZiWHktTVFkQXNCU0Z3V3ZZQTlvSUxZaExEa1Bfdy04MDZCQjdoSEl3ZVd1Z1dOYmlNN3hUNWdRQlFUSkIwLTY3UWp5ejdrLURMa01qRndiMlFVLWdUREloUkoyd1JnQnZLRXVHaGU4bVRKVUhzVTdCVlo5RkhRcHdPQmp6a0NnSHJ1OWdNck44SS1NNU9zUzJIMVdKVWVkSjZnZW9OanM5MHAxU2xQdmlDdDlR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQempZYXZOZXBHVzRTMENFaF9ZTUJwaG44NHU4anE0TUh0UW5IaS1nMDNmTmNaZUdsX0VZT3ZHS05tNjBQYi1GR2JCeDlGbGU5QzQtSnY3MEFNcmVfRzR1djZteTBpNmd6SHo0d0lRN2ljRDhLSGZfZXRETHNLLUpSTDZZNGEwbUZ2NndkNUFzcmxCdDlMWmtKbFRBQTRtMGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTkNTemktVnR6SkF6LTFXTGEyWTlaWTN2clRXakVEWmlvay1KUHVOcGU2M0x3bFRqSVNsNHVxV1J4TXFCcGNuN2tKeWI3U253aEpYRVktV3EtOGF1cXhyUFdHVnNlTmpadFdaLXcyOGZkOUtRZU9VM0NHaW9WMGpmQ3dUSmZhUG5RMzBWbjJqSjZuNVVYX3R4MUdXemluS2tUX0JqUFY?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/israel-bombs-basij-checkpoints-in-tehran-as-us-iran-trade-fire-and-jabs?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-14/10586968.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE14aFhiZ1B2ZEZmNHdHRW5OZjI1V1g4MWdQb3Ftb0UwY0NoaWRXUjczaW4tYXF0OU9IWG9EZ0x3WTNIRVA4ekVwSVRWUnA3MUc0M215Z0J2QTlmRVZndjA5MHdXUVVQdzQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-reopened-to-us-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-14/10586955.shtml
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634983-greek-flagged-oil-tanker-attacked-black-sea-russian-coast/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOV09TTXY0cTVIanNiSDFDeHlVMEw0a1BXV0lxUTliR281WmxUV1lZOGpOY0Fuc0ZDek9KSDdrZ3U5a2lFbW1Dc3NBX1VDS2YwM2JlTThJbldjUUh6XzlVbmVBNDJaSVhrRU5tT2xVQjRKVUtlZzlkd0Nqd2tSeUtpX1lld2xQQ0NwQW5NVkpvSTVhYkRlRlFXcmxB?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-emergencies/4101625-iran-drone-attack-causes-fire-at-uae-oil-hub-fujairah-port-halts-loading-bloomberg.html
2026-03-14
2026-03-14
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步升级军事行动，包括打击伊朗更多石油基础设施。
- 各国央行或调整货币政策以应对油价上涨带来的通胀压力，如加拿大央行利率决策。
- 美国放宽对俄石油制裁可能持续，以平衡全球供应，但中东风险主导市场。
- 外交调解渠道受阻，特朗普政府倾向军事解决方案，增加政策不确定性。
- 区域国家如阿联酋可能加强防御措施，影响商业和投资环境。
- 全球能源政策可能转向多样化供应，以降低对中东石油依赖。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
中东地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
美国增兵和军事行动 / 区域不稳定扩大 / 全球风险规避 / 股市下跌和债券上涨
石油供应冲击 / 央行政策调整 / 利率和汇率波动 / 全球市场溢出效应
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/14/iran-war-live-pentagon-vows-to-ramp-up-us-military-campaign-against-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081707PPX
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260314083318PVl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081016HKz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603140004322cj
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/13/iranian-missile-strike-in-central-israel-sets-building-ablaze?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-enters-day-14-as-conflict-completes-two-weeks-what-we-know-so-far-tehran-explosions-israel-strikes-us-aircraft-crash/articleshow/129550155.cms
- [8] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-03-18
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101359-iran-launches-missile-strike-on-central-israel.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBuOXJsam9kY21GZDVSeFAydmwtZEtQaVRKUEdNZzR2TE1mQ0VPTEhKZUdNRC1BVEJVTF92NGp3QTJqajRmTkdJLVliVE53TDdPeXhCVF9Vc21VOUFaNVJBLXU3aGJlVWROaE5icEtBQ2FWZnpNWmcxdE5RSTE0Q0E?oc=5
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314090641MLm
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNeUJTQ1VSNHVHVmZNZndxaWtfLU5ySEN4S1FrRjF1MTF5SnVZU1M5bVliRy1UNUZ0SmZaemNucEk5a3dFUUg2UXd6VmRZZVlKNE0yZGFLQlpjNDJQRm0tb1pHT0Y3QnRNR1JLdTYxMnBFd25NbXNWR3NjeEVHcTN5cUpTQnU?oc=5
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/634898-us-iran-israel-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9KdXFiNE5BTzBZSlNYb1YyaEdqZTFLMFNiNFNCbHdGc3dMdzZSMldrMXA2ZjRWZnBuWm5JWDkyOXFzalZtWkFsTmRGcHlabVg0QlJvMDlodGFrYURCSWFxM3RyVEM1Qko1Z2ZSUklDUC1qOFAxRHFwdw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQOTd5a0lmYXlEQVNOS0ZsRW5MZHItQ3pMSE4xcVpEa3VnamFHbUU0Wi1uMmlWcFJvVHo1R1dqMTBwc2VwR1FXU3E1d21ydi1KVFM5dmFBOU5SREpTYlhDV1VBbTFQaU96WlctVVBpWExsTm1Qa2RWZWNpbzU0NHdES0xTOVlWYklGODZNYkFmWHRQT2ZTNHFNQjVpMnNmaFA0b1JOTVZjUlBEWms5akhjcktJS0ZMRjlDdXo5WlVqRGVFQmhWNm8wY3VJd01lYlhIUUE?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOUlR4U3FSeEZEZHV0T0lEODh6WmRxaHpNbEdVajRodjdkT2xtS3lKSUo2QTVidjhkb3FyN2JtTjl3ZmtLejJBTVc4S2RBN3h1VlNDNEZsWXJVdHlJUWk5SjhVSUhjcWNacFRFOTM1cEpQcVZjamszelR3enR4MEVNMmFCNFNKN3pQcmRFMUM0akx3XzNCN215dG14ZXhIQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwJBVV95cUxPbWcyZUo1VDViaVM5WF9pcWJkY1lZWHVnRVB5cmlFQUZaNkdBbG1tQWRSMDUxRzRVbXlNTXJuc0YzalpkemFWdm9mai1TSFIxalhyUjcwSXdxS0J0ek9Lb1h4NE1lT2RKWkdJRHQtQmZVRTRweFZxSVVVa2RmOGJWTThOdGNyeTVoQUNVeFZjY182aTM5Y1c2NVBEVVhNXzQ1bndjcm00ZTVoMklhZ1Z3azRMYTRWR291Ri1LeUZNdW5LZzFSV25kTW9EMndoZkdkX3QxX0RLa1hBUUZOa0dldzRiakE5U2NGMVoyUVJlM2ptcnBZWHVEYnFwSEd5TG5wQzNxWmdQWmpVUzR5VnVnbWswUWczUEE?oc=5
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/politique/20260312-troisi%C3%A8me-jour-de-guerre-en-iran-quels-buts-de-guerre-pour-trump
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/eskalation-in-nahost-iran-nimmt-den-oelhandel-in-den-wuergegriff-a-b1f06920-cb9d-44fe-90c2-1f4c53fba5a0
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260314000200315
- [22] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-us-would-escort-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-if-needed-fox-news-interview/article70739248.ece
- [23] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/28-indian-vessels-with-lng-lpg-and-crude-stranded-near-hormuz/article70738142.ece
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-offers-up-to-10m-for-info-on-mojtaba-khamenei-and-other-key-iran-leaders-offers-relocation/articleshow/129562970.cms
- [25] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-march-2026
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/us-eases-oil-sanctions-at-an-ideal-time-for-russia/a-76349758?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [27] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-ramping-up-strikes-in-coming-days/live-76340941?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634859-dubai-finished-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQU0JHaTJ3YTF3Qzc1Vmp2VU45bnRoRDAyMlhodmhuY2pORXlGNm5LZGxpM0w1Rk5UUW1faDFHU2NCd1UwOHI4QmhudHd1MFJhUEt0QW1mc3R0N1BJajN2Q0x4SDA0bTUwZWNIcllYSHdBeFlZaExfSl9mWEhqX2NBcmtEczRCd0VK?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPT3VuT1JwVDB3WU5LVzM5ckJsQnRJQ3BBN3JWc0hQQ2tXdnJtZXFHYjZ5SWdBS2lWNXNXM0o2VmV4d3FRZHVHQzNRZ3BDUnVuMWY0dDZlb2VZRDA2NldJQVY1cUlzWjd4Zll6UVQ3WUo3RGJRNEZWTmF5NEJfclVpS1VMUzJkTEZ6RVMxVTd0OA?oc=5
2026-03-13
2026-03-13
进展要点
- 美联储等主要央行将更难转向降息，高油价带来的二次通胀风险成为政策核心考量。
- 美国可能考虑并正式宣布释放战略石油储备（SPR）以平抑油价。
- 中国“十五五”规划将聚焦科技自立、产业链安全与内需提振，相关产业政策将陆续出台。
- 欧洲在能源安全压力下，可能加速推进替代供应来源和绿色能源部署。
- 各国财政政策或将更多转向应对能源价格上涨对低收入群体的冲击。
关联路径
伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 全球石油贸易流量骤降 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策收紧预期强化 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊军事对抗升级 / 区域全面战争风险溢价上升 / 资金逃离股市等风险资产 / 涌入美元、美债、黄金 / 美元走强，金价上涨
油价暴涨 / 企业成本（尤其是运输、制造业）上升 & 消费者购买力下降 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 经济增长预期放缓 / 股市盈利与估值双杀
地缘政治不确定性持续 / 全球资本开支与贸易活动趋于谨慎 / 全球经济增长前景蒙阴 / 周期性资产表现落后
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-13/10586035.shtml
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260312-guerre-au-moyen-orient-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-bloque-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260312-war-in-the-middle-east-explosions-heard-overnight-in-tehran
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAJBVV95cUxOQkFHVlYxNWxWZEFDYU5vU294Y2FHZ182ejhLcDlnWDFlZFFVNW5EcHotTmtLZzVrU2lBMDRvWUxkU1R3dnNqREg5WnNVUGdfZXctUW9Rd3p2ek1jY2xNMVlIMTBmdmZPdHB3TjJua2loZnExQm95cl9WS1JtWEVadGxGZ2ZXLXRMb011Y2o2V1Jxbi1ROXdpZW9qRU9Ja0p0UHpJQnpMWTlxRVcyNm1Rc1NwSDVzcnVScXEwbEJUbHJXUk1yazBWZmpFbVlzOU9DNUFfVURPY2lsRkFYUHlwY0FWODJjajd2ZklkV0ZwY1hxQWVsbWo0VzhSSjVGUkNGUFBiYWNKWmxVNTFjYm5Ma0h6RXI?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOeFgzZmV4V0FqeHVnMnZxS2VSbGN4MUxqdFpud0haREV2OVBnUFcyZW0zQWJrU2lEQS1KSTFLRGNESWNQLW9QSnlWWVZBWGNGQS1Na0RDM09vZ3VFeE5ncm9ZSXVaVFMybk1nNjlRdUNNV19fd1FUYm1iV1pKaS11NFBsZmxxel84dXpjdmYtckNkWWNRaUVUX1lyQUJuZVFwTHR5YUh5ekx5WnpiNVNONXB3MlBvZ0RpSDQxb9IBwgFBVV95cUxQaV91WmNNSHR2MWljUngtRThOR1Mtb0lnSVZXMkViYUhFUHU1ejFzU2prMi1IdHYxWVVua2hEc0tyLWpGS1l5VWNubFlsanhBaUlkbUs2aF93eGk5Wjc5ZzVZQmhqeDNNMVlPZWJueW44b1g5aFZfSjZBcGRqTzd3Z1lkQ3lqcldMTFNoMGdkM2tFaEphb0x
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4100837-israel-claims-to-have-attacked-nuclear-facility-in-iran.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/06fbe756e8fa4e52a455987d905ec2e2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1VNnZxUmVhdk1rRkx3ejd4U01FaHFsMnV2ek9aVms3U2haNU9HTUpwXzM4dk5QbFFZaW1SN0JoOWtmWHRXT1doalh1bWdhckVDLUpQSWNpRnZOdw?oc=5
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101001-war-update-122-clashes-along-frontline-russian-attacks-intensify-in-huliaipole-and-kostiantynivka-sectors.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNS05TU1p3Rk5HVzVHMVNrUzJVb2ZwRjVZQjlMU3lLNENuYUwwY05ZQWV0OHhZNVE2Q0FPQVgwV2tucDBGMXNsclFsOWVtRU9sOElwSUxtRkdtUElENGw5SW9QSUdZYzREZXViVEIzbWdfRUFwdG1FNGRKSnk5QUpWNHhtaG5xaTRuZUJLdlIzR3pHWldyeXI5aEpwQU5Jd0XSAaQBQVVfeXFMTTNLVExKRjhKY2sydWM4a1dPQThsVWhPZkhfXzVNRFFoYnRHeDh1VFlrUEFlUHc2dXhqX1FwN0JDdGFIQUVnWEJCVENFOTJaWXNEcmlsLTVlWGhSX2I2akRhVmZOV2lfdEgwZGtzc1BHck9FY3c5Qm9JOVpjQnlPYVBMcUZMOFFXckF6OWZpRWNWSlFEZzBPeHU3eHRvMUV5RFZjcm8?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNb1B4UWQ0RjBPTEVDZkZDbXZvMTNtRWFNYUFWT2pPYlQ0NTlZSFRXZElDNm1CdEFrN0g5RVJGQXZYY0Y3SXozU0Y0WlRTVlFSaDVfNldjNVhBQnl0M3RNT3p1aEpNd2xTZTBmdW9wQjdSWlh5X2hLVmZBSVNHTmFRQmw2dHNqbjUyWkdqNVpNZjc3VDd3XzdPV0M2bUpOMG9YUnREeHRxcGlKa0pxb3RTdDg3RHVZNUFTdWfSAb8BQVVfeXFMTTh5ZFlmMFhYNlFOQk5MM1pZbW8xU3kzYk9ZYWVBcEJ3dHE4cm1xeHV6VEtZSWRFSGhXdHJlX2NjZG5lQUFOYXllaXZXb0VJSUFuczhaREg1OFJLMHRhT0lWenc4enR1MWxEWWJ0OGhtLVlvUW4xQTJac3QzNl9QQURyVDQzaWNXdnFCMk1VNDJqbWE2QU9EdG1
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/f6a9912e7ba541df91412c5b34d9e1e4/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/12/fuel-shortages-bring-queues-protests-around-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/netanyahu-says-israel-stronger-than-ever-in-first-speech-since-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPSFBSakVBQjhjZHBxX3lUTnM2YjVCMHNaZVlrU3d5ckdWcnAtei1DWUlQWDY4NDEzNURCeXNDQnFzcW93OVRyRjM4ZS0tSjZfaWpCWDVyV21XVXJORDhHRlRtVHRNMzBiYXJoemhBUU5nRk8tSkZuVHJhTGhiZXJBcEpNcktjSDFBWEJZa1dDMmdsci02dW9XZktXblFCdjNMT0M4T0w5S3BMY1hxbWhYRDBYZW4?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQOVI1bEFyQXhWeUVCR2pqYk00RGt0OXV0UjJHSTNHa2lJTzFhZjE4RmRBaUlnWjNjQWp1WUYxcW92LUZOaHpJUVpMemxNM3NRT2lWN0JXSkYtN0dtTFZxVDFkWDVjekJyS3F4eXBEX1o3UFpIWGk0MkhEUlNBYmswbXZTR0k4Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/108a1631b7364fe08ac49dd751650ccc/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10586021.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-12/10586020.shtml
- [20] https://news.sky.com/story/us-navy-to-escort-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-treasury-secretary-tells-sky-news-13518742
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQR1BzbW95SnlZUl9qRUNfbVh3WngxcHNKQWVhMGNESTEtbXBBWDJQaVpvZ19tRVNia0ZXRjBoSHY5aHF0RjAwVDdYeXFKcG5vYzFWekFwNVdDcExjZmRYNkZSRTItb0dKd05kcEhNRjFRSDdTY3MxVl91cWRVckd0a0hJTQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/12/how-will-the-war-on-iran-impact-the-us-economy?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/12/does-president-trump-have-an-exit-strategy-for-the-war-with-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5pN2RpbnBXSTZWX1V5NlFLODl1dWpfS21aNFVMMEs2MVFyZ2N3d0ZTRmhLQ3BaQkEyX0NXNWQxN19ZSEFsZk5IR2NYTEV2RVlsdDdKZERwbnluZ2ZBZFlhb1ZRVXh5Y3dZQTlwUlZReGRZZUhsQk0tbnlXMNIBgAFBVV95cUxQc0F2d2tZVUJHVW9IWFNqTnE1TkN6OEdHMU9xY2hvOWMyeVJPWERNd2lkVW9UcWR0T1ZZWFpJcXN6MkNIRDBCNm5wUzBqS3hTaVZGbVdsMnR1dHQyVGQxSElOcTQ5VUc0YjNULUxDc1FaWDFqdHc1Z3hyRUR2ZXdIUg?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxQTVl2b3NaY3JkSVItLXZPYlh0S3QtVGZXNDBHenE2T2E3RExlcVM4VVBvbjVFeTdEYkxxR09xMkhLQ21PbXAxOTVHVFN6UWVJeVZRVEwxa0loNEZfcHNmb3k2TkZuV3o4REdISTlwZDhpYjNHVVZKaFFJLW1rRWl2RWNENndKSmlYWE1ndWpMNWI0RkU?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4100977-war-enters-new-stage-as-russia-accelerates-creation-of-drone-units-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-vows-to-make-trump-pay-for-grave-miscalculation-if-us-escalates-war?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/12/aje-onl-irn_tuesdayupdates_av_v2-100326?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.iris-france.org/a-limage-du-monde-un-moyen-orient-de-plus-en-plus-sombre
- [30] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook
2026-03-12
2026-03-12
进展要点
- 美国及IEA石油储备释放将持续，但若冲突升级，可能需更多干预措施。
- G7国家可能加强协调，推动外交解决方案，但军事行动短期难降温。
- 中国等新兴大国斡旋角色增强，可能影响地缘政治平衡。
- 欧洲国家面临能源价格压力，可能出台补贴或储备释放政策。
- 贸易政策转向保护主义，新调查可能引发报复性关税，冲击全球贸易。
- 中东国家可能加速减少对美安全依赖，寻求多元化伙伴关系。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断 / 全球石油供应减少 / 油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗威胁及袭击 / 石油供应风险 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市波动加剧
全球石油储备释放 / 供应增加 / 油价下行压力 / 通胀预期缓和 / 风险情绪部分修复 / equities 反弹可能
贸易调查升级 / 关税风险上升 / 全球贸易放缓 / 经济增长担忧 / 避险资产需求 / FX 市场波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/634559-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/634546-war-on-iran-could-remake-world/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFByQ3hWa01uVlpZWmtUSU82S1J2UTViaXhJcVdhRVdDb1FfYWkxWFBtbkh5d3hnTVprc0JmRkM1TzI2NUJhbllqSDRmVnRQMUE1UzZ1Z2EwMmM0cTl0blFpc19sWTNtQXM?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPUy1FZ0pyVHZBZEdvcjJLR2JWN20ycFg2LWF0RzNjbWtvLUplYjN0Ry1ZMFRmUi1FeEwwT0hmSXJ3SGVsMDVVUzl5MzRpOWh2bTJTbzZ0aDdaVU9SN0hUR0tRRUhPV1Rmdk5Pbjg0NGV3ekVodi1ZV05QaFM5VjdHcUEyZ3NvUUM0cGtINlprbWJQWWp6R1BVMTQ5NDR2eEhpYTQ1SURPQ2h2ZHNsR0Nnbld3?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNWkJYckV1U051V0J0RXlsdVNIdDJBVkZROGp6aUstdWk3UFA4MEZGOTRqeVF5ZkZYZTJvaF95RWlzQTQzT3BYOTZ2LVBCN2VhemM1elpKOFhrVEJLVnFXN0VsaTZMV0k3WTFkRWlHNjVqWEgyVkI0Z0J2bm9wYmg3cXBRaUp3OWZzeTdCVG9SYjdPWS1PNUNLQW8tNjNJV1nSAaQBQVVfeXFMT2VTOHplSUtXMzZtRUxIVE1tczJVVUw4VUI5aUNXZngzdnR0Q1dERkpvNGM0d3FyQm00N3V3WGh4SEI3UC1qWHExeDhrX2JZNk54UC1jZ0w4TFdoQ2NJcDg1bHdGQXJRTjVWcWNYamxodHNKZTdpODlQdlA4Z3h1QW5OaFplMDN4d1lDa2tWbnFxalNXQkJneFBhN0FTV2dLR2xoZXo?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/irans-irgc-says-not-one-litre-of-oil-will-get-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/442a0fe4bc42480281d4d0bc28f4c6c2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNMmZrdGVSVzRwWlUyNWh1eXd4dGRaclJ3OGdxbGNPTkVUSFpUNTE2UFlpV24wWnI2NkpfNjJHc2t1TUdyMmNZbHAwT1BmSzdaMDRYRTlvYzlPeFVsNUdHNklRV0tnNWxQdElwblc2T1c4MTJUdzNVa2dlYnlVeUdKeU91bC1qQzU2QnJOV2pzM1NJQWFrTEZhcnh1cjFka1lK?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10585394.shtml
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/massive-fires-on-two-oil-tankers-after-attack-in-iraqi-waters?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNWXlWY3F2U0ZWSHFVbnZneDlSeGJvS2J4bU54OEFLeElaUjZGYm5YQ2h2N0RnQnQ2amhpRVU0STRYUS1sVGhlMXBMa2JLeDBRUWlhRFZlYU5yNHlEazU3T3dIV2RXMFJWMXgza3JXcTRlcjdKWTMxdHJOTzNLbVUwdDhES3pPU3hKN3NHY2dIN2pia05CMEE?oc=5
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/2be5a84701ad4b978bff009439d40bce/c.html
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/5efec14abc7b4d53998e9199af28ff2b/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/72fd109f77e741cebd3ae5372865e46a/c.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/634541-us-strike-iran-school/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQSUEzMWRHZDMxYWRvemZSdzFWekVpSm9xaW9pcS1vc0l1bVVjQ2pRR0E2eml0dlMxblI5a1FaV1JrQ3VOaUg5Nm95NWo5ODZIYnhvb3BfM0RUamZ4eUVXcnRwRnI5Q3JKaVZ3djNlMkZhSS1wSHgyUEJ2ZUItanVYYXlQRkpvRmd5eDNOQVZObzFnaEVVZlRBaTBiMlQ0X0RTVHpfbUFGZFNpVFNONjgyWnQ5amRVYkXSAbwBQVVfeXFMUHJDNk96bmoxMDE5NnZsaGVjTDZaUXF1cXpYSmVURUYwcmIxOGZLRzNtVDgzUk0xd0xNU2pIcUFiZ0ZvS3QzZXBTNUxlRHZKTFllNlFDckpBQ3dyb21BSU5rSjk1bUM3T1FNVG82UHBzdWhYTjFhSlZHLVhWUkVXQU4zTFpRek1rcjdPVDhERnJkbWUzN3M2WHQ2a1E
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQR2VYVTZXdTZ1bG9sOUJGMDlobXBSb1pBU05pdW1wZTdJZllYMm5yNUNKY0Q1b1I5a014WFNDdHF2RGJzNTVQTEg0XzM0TGJaYnlRdmZTT2dzd0dNNXVTdmFjelJOMm9KQldUaEJINTFRTUx0NnIwdVp6aHlFbVFsQm1Hc3d0Yk1LTlhxWW1mWQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQaVpsanBCMzd1VkU1WWFkTkk5Rk9zQWdLMEJkQmZsNGRnU3Q5VTJ3SXZHSjlBNXhTNWZCV2o5Zm1SMDVtb3NFNDAxZ2dGM3ZQbkRkV3IyR19GcDlJdkg4aWdYS0U4VkJ1OTFJeEl4cFBhNUNuLTNDMFFDSW5pT2xaS2RGeFdoUjd2eEdyekR3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/11/why-does-the-iran-war-pose-more-dilemmas-for-europe?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQQWEzSjZuZFlqQzZOX2M1bFB2ZTl5cjA3SU55QVJaSXRxU1dVUnhXaXJ5N1podkg5LXRBSU5hdnJadEx1RFMycEpCOG9JcXYwSkdWVE1La05iM21ONnVtWDd5Tk9MTGVlSzlzUnJ2alZsMWNOUzB3S2QzX0E1ZUgwZWI5MFB2M1RtNnEwN1NZVFRKa0xHYks4blNn?oc=5
- [22] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2026/03/11/prime-minister-carney-participates-virtual-g7-leaders-meeting-situation
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tc0pNV3hRZ185TFJLNlQ2SkF1NGExb1NkdTlxYzRldDJXMkdHeGVjT2t6UHFuWE5fejBOS2wtVEtoQXNLM3RFV0E0SUZGQ0NhbDF2dVQ2bnFNSUZURnZmNnN4OVVGdmQ0S1ZlbjNQOTVFdHNuam93SElscThMbVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260312/8a27c89d85d94d73afa65276ee67cfd5/c.html
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxORzRjNjhXOFFPSTRtcktYdk1vVmhWdjV2UFd3X0dPeVhLMzVZTnNRRWduQjRYOENnbmhUbGVsa2JyUzVXOGVQMms1dU9sQ1F3MlEyMzZ5b0pzYXdUWmhOLVJkUV9KaF83NmpzSUlYV245ejFlVDBvOG55VXNIcGljdXJ1cHVaTXNZVHZod0Q4bk9VWng2ZUxIX3RobGxRZ0VfSjROUURwcmZycEhjengwODN3?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOY1VEblp3ZlhTcjBpR1NKU1NvR0hzeklVbEt4WmtSOHpobW56QWR4SFJ4a3ZUeE41bzRJVnBicWJnUm1DNmFNMzc3QWNTRTVjcDNIc1V6MkxEdjAxa05TMXJqbUVDMHZLTVR6MkZlcGY3UHJ4dG9VRzJoVDVGLUN4Y0pQNjlqbTBsTXZhWUtncHJxZi01SGVZelowUEZaaDJqV2xB?oc=5
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4100584-record-400-million-barrels-iea-releases-emergency-oil-reserves.html
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/whats-left-in-iran-could-be-taken-out-in-an-hour-says-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.dw.com/de/hohe-spritpreise-wegen-iran-krieg-öl-reserve-wird-angezapft/a-76306889?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNGFGS0YxQnVyaVhYNGZ0ejQwZmo4YUNnc1NycHdjdGt3WlE1dkNzNXZNY1hXNnZzQjZ4VGkyQU1SbXdHZGQ5Rk1laExkbGVjeXdTLV9Dc0NjMWtsM09oT09oeElQUm9DS0ZXSUtqS1lMRDQySjNiQ2JuNFEtX1BTaERGTGg5TXMxRkpiNlh3Q3lGY2ZQci1fZ2JpOEtjM3NlSmpibzBYc1ZmbXZuNEhacWlHdkpZUDJZcmZpVlVaNHhLYU5BVm1BTlBR?oc=5
2026-03-11
2026-03-11
进展要点
- 美联储可能因地缘不确定性和通胀风险调整利率路径，偏向鹰派。
- 加拿大央行3月18日利率决策关注食品通胀，加息预期上升。
- 欧盟外交政策协调困难，在伊朗冲突中难以形成统一立场。
- 美国军事战略无明确退出计划，长期冲突可能导致财政压力增大。
- 全球央行需平衡通胀控制与经济增长，政策反应可能滞后于市场变化。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金 / 美元上涨
石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 通胀压力
地缘不确定性 / 增长担忧 / 股市下跌
通胀上升 / 央行加息 / 货币走强
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNWE1pdjF6NTVIOEF4aHpWS2QwZ3hfR0hqbWNiXy05Q0oyMG9oYkZRSEhRR09ueDVWblB3djJZNVk4VV9qT1hQSWFiRWZva2tJVzVabzYtTkZYQ2dVQkJKcDNfd3VPbmU2cnF0dXcwRVVEaFI2bDJFMUpiVmRnS2dIRF9Ea2p3dnJNMUZKYXZYMmY2Slk1dFdJemcwbUE1WXQwSVFvWVQ3M0VTY1FwZ2d3UkVPS3czd9IBuwFBVV95cUxOTUJHdnZHdTJZTUFvOEFPNGNSRnJtODhuUWNXXzBtNmR3TmQyX1dHbVN1bGl5NnZGSWpjLWlUWmtreWNJZDhRMzlJYmhWLWRJT3RMRWVhRE1uUXhXWEllYlBjZ3hPS2RNYVdaS3VwRlI0cXFmeTMtS3JySEZUeExQV1pISGtEbC1tcFotek8tdFFNaEN5WGlPZ2xFOVA
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNUkdiTFNjZENxQ1Z4bHZQb1FfeG1kYjZFblhPdVExeDQ0MjJwN3RYX3ZTRnE1aERiUm9rdzdqZmRWY21nRk03UWNOUVFKYk1tN08weG53UEYzSlZvdkZWRWk4VDdfT3BMbThYb3BWRld3WVRUM21wYWlZc1IxRjVITVQ0QlJnSUlKTmhr?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxOazVDTEpWOThHZHY2dHFZazh0YWhNQW9JMGk4bXVNYWNIVzlTeTA4WlNLLXhYMGRsRHBWMWNBVmtIUkJEVzhjUmFiSU1IVktZSTdLZm5ROV8yNUE1VnVhLUZIWjVid0luT1hmS2MxNnNlY3czT0pMa1VEV05OQ3pqcHhvUkJ5R0ZuZ0dETUZNQkNkZFQ3R29ueDNOVF8wX2ZCYU40UEQ1c1JoUjFIRTd6WUVBWF9iZkNqeXo1ek5QTzZGeVljOUluWW5jOWJnal93S0I00gHYAUFVX3lxTFB5V3dtclAyYms0MlBGbTZnaThKcDNuNmFONmRONjNJeVg1Z1JNVlhwVV9reWJTeS1DcnVKSUpZeDk0eW1FWDYyMGFEQmg4NGtkaFVNV3RlQzNCeUhNVUoxUG1PT0M2S1Q4S0tFRk9ER3hzMlZkVGkxYlQtNmYtSjl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310232439BDY
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310235751Mhd
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634366-tehran-fuel-sites-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-181914444.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE84cUltYlRQSkRGYmo3SnBVNGpaa01XbUJRSUxnOERzSE1pdXBFWFZIV0p0MFpGR1N0T1M1T0RqMU40T0VIR3V5YnEzSXNKakhyVXBueGFWTHJaQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/10/around-140-us-service-members-wounded-in-iran-war-pentagon-says?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0rjyr22ypeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/634413-trumps-call-to-putin/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260311/687b46ac645f4341a6d428a202df8b08/c.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNVVYzT1l4TmlxM2FjazNVc3VLdi1LcURsamVBcmhXWVNYSjltb0NkWFV2UmNxUHlIa3NSMEJ0SGtHem9zSlhkWWNtVTNDMzZVMnV3RjBfZU83Sl9uUldtS29fRGx0Sjk3NGtmWXE5NU85MktNSlMzbmx0ZDlKUzNHWTFDOHBwNFJFVlM0bUpHV1c?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPa2gyZDM2MWVreEVscXdpNTlGLVBONlVvUjU2Z2dJZmxXei1hZDJ3UGItYUVJMjJPbGtXTFBXNGtkRzZOc1gtYy11ZHQwMV9NMDJOOTlZRzJLYXo2b0ZLQ1pQM1J4cFdxUWYySUFabHRacDBkMXloQTJLVWRtZlBHQnhMUzhncG5ULW9vajk0SFJYb0VoamJ4X3VSaVphdUgyV0ZqS09paVU3TzZmS0M4ak1nX2ZCbnfSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWRhZm11VVFPbFBRelZJcWtXekRJb1p6YVdXYy1OS1duY1hIbVBLcHdLMllqY25USG1HdXNialpzMjE2RUFlelA1Z0l6TDhIOXFqVXV4cnJNY0pDM1ZsV0gxcDBRNWcxNjhyRjZhQmp5a2ozczhxODhtMDNuWFFvVFFKRnQzQXhlZk82V056UzFtMEFsdG1BNGpJeFV
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxOVnM1SG5iRE9GdkVoUHdZNGhSOU1FdnhaVlNFd1VPOWFPLXdFQXVIVHR4RjAxWjNmaTcyRkF5alpUT29DQUFQR1gzVVlORFRla0FsSXB0Y2taQTFMak5GdUxTZ0pHenpVVXlpeEpDNkdsY3psdTFqV3NNNVZLcU1EYXdFUmxsVVpfay1nWUhSVGVPSGw4VlQ5ZnJJN3I0Mkljc0ZqdFoyN0lVZl9YbGlEU1VnLVdiSmh6aDllOGViNGNGNU9QQ0VVMkV3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/10/german-chancellor-concerned-us-israel-have-no-exit-plan-for-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.sky.com/story/dark-ships-and-shadow-fleets-8211-what-is-crossing-closed-strait-of-hormuz-13517746
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBreGc4VlV5ZnF6bzJfQlhEMlNwcWVhWVBIenBWNUo4XzZIbTVLT2Y5SHRmbl9uX2wxVmlWN1JpUl95ZWRlWUZqV2VLWFV0NnB1UmYwZGVlOE5wQUIwRXgtYTVaVExZOFNtVHc?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNNE5ELWRWNFp2SnFnWGczUWdHMHo5dVM5U21KczN3LUFibjlqY1c0MUJiNS1yaXVrSkkxSGEyMlRfQjFqY0s0Sk1jQlR5TXh1bk1PZXVId2RTaVlxTXU1a1IwRXk1ZUYwZnBvNThHdGlxeWkyTHZzOERVOTRmZ2UtWnE4djFRN3ROVXVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/634398-eu-bosses-split-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxOMmdaVWhxMjJ4cXBHOTBrVldZQ0NkNS1GNXhRemZRVEZkcU95NDU3V0JjWFZWQ3ZEU09SX3JGd0FjUFFCTklPYXBXaWt6bzFXeTZSbWk0RFJubUhwNC05RERMV1lDOXBlcVBUZ2R0YXhpWFk1a3ljck5ObFRqenQ4aTBiOXV3OHo0Q0lQMjBFZTRFRmZOY0pHV3RZazR0MElYdkhnYVBBWWlfcmJYSnRIdmc2MWV2Q2JKd0tqLUlUcVpnU2hFZE9FaTFoTl9zZzlBTC1UcVp1WmU?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/10/global-airlines-hike-ticket-prices-as-iran-war-sends-costs-soaring?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://cdhowe.org/publication/whats-putting-upward-pressure-on-inflation
- [24] https://www.iris-france.org/iran-10-jours-de-guerre-ou-en-est-on
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-iran-une-guerre-d-usure-s-installe-au-moyen-orient
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-frappes-entendues-au-dessus-de-doha
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-replay-guerre-en-iran-la-strat%C3%A9gie-am%C3%A9ricaine-expliqu%C3%A9e-par-pete-hegseth
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/focus/20260310-europe-s-borders-under-threat-from-russia-baltic-states-gear-up-for-war
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260310-trump-says-war-in-iran-will-end-soon-%E2%80%93-but-threatens-to-escalate
2026-03-10
2026-03-10
进展要点
- G7财长会议可能推出联合释放战略石油储备或协调增产措施以稳定油价。
- 特朗普政府或进一步豁免石油制裁，增加从俄罗斯等国的进口缓解供应。
- 美联储等央行可能因通胀飙升而加速加息，但中东风险或暂缓紧缩步伐。
- 美国能源部承诺降低汽油价格，具体措施如补贴或监管干预待观察。
- 国际社会或推动外交斡旋，尝试结束伊朗战争，但进展缓慢。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀加剧
油价暴涨 / 亚太股市暴跌 / 避险情绪蔓延 / 黄金和美元上涨
特朗普缓和言论 / 冲突结束预期 / 油价下跌 / 风险资产反弹
G7政策协调 / 石油供应增加 / 油价稳定 / 市场情绪改善
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxPTFN3NW5QZFdieXBpUmh0N3dBYndKcjkzaVp3N2lISU1VbkZNelVMZGlHb1V5b3lYSVJTMjY1bzJNdGdjNmljdjFfY3RoV1RwbFpXVENCTE9ndzB4amI3cmdoT25iVDhWRWxXNWtRWU5HR2Y3NkN0QzIxa0djVlBlWjY3eGtaWHhhSlRv?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFBVV95cUxQNjN6NlVFX0IxVW5penE4TEV4WHZMZTY2YjhER3kwWkxYcHZudldsM1RVN3hBdHlEcFNwS3J6RnNqZllqN2I0cHZXSlBMSjllS05SM0dQWG5tNTJFLWVLXzEtZkxsS2ZxYzJxSEV4ZkFUZ0hUd1V1d2xja0xBcVpJZFBBRDI4TGo1RXc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-israel-launch-strikes-across-175355831.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE5lYzVaNzRiRU1vNjF5MWFMb3d4N0VoUlB3UEs0TFpDcjZEZG5JbFRqN2t5Q1lDbFZYSU5hSTZoR1RDYTRHcUgzQ1ZyUXlObmNEdlIzeEdndUxFOEd5SGlPSENZSWJqTVBaV0dLRTVNTTVnLVBpbTV6Qw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634212-oil-100-barrel-small-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-second-ballistic-missile-at-turkey-nato-intercepts-will-the-attack-trigger-article-5/articleshow/129332235.cms
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/f124c669dd43416f8e4ba9fd908aacf3/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/abea00315f4b47289cfbeefdaac77f79/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/20260309/db66c48278554551bc2be3748f7a46ee/c.html
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/5b9e2b8621c04b448f63a5d1d86a1829/c.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/87c01a718e3449b3bdc495475c795182/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-10-of-us-israel-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260309/a509f2ed53c94024ab2516747db85aba/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584278.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584273.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584277.shtml
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260310/fada381db92e44e0af00b9b1e381f1e7/c.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-will-be-over-very-soon?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-AFBVV95cUxPMFo5M3IwNzJnbG5TNFBPY1BySkk5M2VkNEJsdW5IekgwUFJLVmR2SEhFTFBuSVRsOWN6R3hWa0xtWlRYcktzSlJlaHJfXzc3V25QZS0zd1dpUlZPc2k5dGptRUYzeFhiWUtYSndEaEQwOWVRdHFmcmMzeDVvb21hNGtlS3dIWHRuUG5oRkZPanZ1b3JMbDlTUUVJUllqclRubGRIVzBCQ20ta0xKc0txWk9MN1hIVkVfSzBUakVrMm9tMDl2YzdwOHF5VFpaWmN1SkN2WGtTY0RKb2JfOHJmdXVWYzBWMDlXZDNaUWtjRm5fMjF0Sm1VYg?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7wFBVV95cUxObXJkNnV2QTNQczJIdmhOX3YwTE1IdUJ2QzZ2MmRxRWJ4YWFKU2h4Y1VaQkFKNG8weVNxX0tIM1J1S2pKMUNiV3gzblB1NndnbHBhRkduX05OOGFlNjdEa3N2WGVMMDhfS2xxb2ZCMVZQVjRBZkJ1SENSTHlaYVdVdDJGdl9id1g0dXZ3OTlJZVp2VFZxdzNQV0lNeXZIc0x5RUFWTWFhRGJYWkNpdTRwQVphcVZFWkptVDNEbktjTUlwbnJFelB6Mkx3WnVUU3B3WF82V3VmMlhwRXNVX0dJUjM5VHZfa1BmN25iMmxOdw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE4wTExGeE5CMjNoYWJKOWN4bDloaTJMVE9NaGJ5amtkQllLUmpJSVN2RkM5ZDk2VmYyRFRuMU5GQUFDc21JNzVBWThrejhCeDZ3ZGptWVhjQktBRmNqa3QwWXM1bzBkZVMyTHdWb29PUkphMUlPeHItNjk5X1E?oc=5
- [23] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-trump-says-war-to-end-soon-but-not-immediately/live-76271521?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584264.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxPT2lEbHhnbHQ3ckhiaWplNmV0OXVuZVdPUmVvemFXaG44dGxMNVFIS29nMW5uRkRfZ0V5Q3BnZ0RTSXh1VWcxQzc4WGxLNTBFVnJqdUJXVDZZVHhUTUx4b2h2ZU5VSUwzMm5fcnpJVXBUNEtXZ1IyRXdfRFc5UDU5aXFiSXRRX2M0WWMxdnU5cC1ELU9vU0x2c1pHQVdWcVppWXlhMVdad2x3T3RtQkFnZWtWUzhYQk16eFNTQWlydm50MWJqRDVGX3NDMUJvYTFSQVlIV2xUdVNrakdQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4099791-war-update-122-combat-clashes-on-front-lines.html
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071332ggP
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071551lHG
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310070742PLx
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310070606xM6
2026-03-07
2026-03-07
进展要点
- 美联储可能因就业疲软而倾向鸽派，但油价上涨加剧通胀担忧，政策路径不确定。
- 美国政策转向，允许印度购买俄罗斯石油，试图缓解能源压力，但地缘风险仍在。
- 国际社会对美以行动批评增多，外交谈判空间受挤压，多边协商受阻。
- 特朗普团队内部分裂，暴露政策矛盾，可能影响美国外交连贯性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策收紧预期
弱就业数据 / 降息预期升温 / 美元下跌 / 股市波动
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和石油价格上涨
海湾生产中断 / 油价飙升 / 经济增长担忧 / 市场风险情绪恶化
来源
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260306/ec1ff965f49e473ba5e109ca53a30371/c.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAJBVV95cUxQOFkzal9NUmh6OVNYVlZBUVpJVTNMY2lRTWxqemR6STRpckhJc3lkSTczSWVpT0F3NnZZeUtZUnRLeVpBUmlwR21DSEhIMVp6WjVFWHlva2U1N3lTbWktZF9hcWNUMU0xdE5wTld6SE9OTU05Z3Vuejhsak1uN2VvaXRYckJkV09ySG9oUkl3N1NGTXVyZlpKblByZGNDamJRMnJhNjUwVmtHZFNPVG1qRF85Y25mSkkzV3pmSHVpend6TS04LV9fN3RtbGdWSWZVcHpVRXBQcjk2WVdCdW1aMU1EYlNxUzlzMDB5UnpYODhUeG9UMFBLOXBVUmJFTzluaW8xTmNEVVdhRk0yTFd2bk55U1V1SUJWa1l5Wi1EWXJUTG13?oc=5
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy031ylgepro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/strikes-on-iran-to-last-four-to-six-weeks-white-house-says?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTFA4aGFEWWF2N1MxbVZUckpRSFBXaWduejNwS3lGSktJbV8wcmFVRW9vRUU1c0hNZERqdWo5S3ViUVZpclZodllUTEJTNU55cURfSnpjbEhn?oc=5
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Business/dow-drops-650-points-iran-war-sends-oil/story?id=130824337
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNeG5wRnd4dlUyRnM1TWlyUFJMSlIxRHR0NlFyNTlLcUJoUmE4QzhGMWJ1Rm1CeU1jX3BGazgzWTRlUEZhS0tIbEpibjFnY3Z5S2x3X3VwTC11akh1cENhVzN4cnpPRzdFaDVGZjdQQVVwZ045b3hubjhDLTY0Z2hwSGNoTUxQVnA3ODhCYXJWYWFlS1ZzeGdwMTItSzJzeGFHR0h2VXp1bjY?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd98091g28o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-provided-iran-information-help-191321667.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxOTS1SbFJTdkh0alhXZ3J6VTRKSUFNZjcyeFo4SU1UME5laUZuRk5WTmJDQkk0VFNuRmJfN0g4b3c5VlZxWm96Y1FfVXY2T1NOMFZwbTNlbGI0NVlRVndWbktkSzIwazdIY2VWYkFldFlLeFZpemZVQm5HV0FDV1N0dmp2WXlMdzVNVE1RYVhPeGtfYS05UHJ3X0NpTDnSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0VncGZqT0FINHlFY0piRmlHWWJTOXZDaGhzRkJnc25KbklNa3lJaXREWGlFVUR2b21NWGJtZ0Rkd29pcHRFZ09OXzR2MEdSY3FubmNQLXBucFBOczZCY1ZRM0NjUlcwT093ZGE1UkY0cDV4cE9fU1NCSWVsaXVJQ2x1S2lBOUhhQ0JMYWtwTnNLT1hleFpHTmlEM2tMNmdPLUtB?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/why-did-the-us-torpedo-irans-prize-warship?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNVGZmRGhwVEZsMXNxODNwY05xNUtGdUxveXdfakFMakhZbERtcWgxTW9MRXR4LVJFdHhXOWctczRLb05CSVFPZ0E3VkFDVTY4UWxQcDVPOE5kTEJLeWg4Q2dBYUlfXzBSTlF2cktLNEpiTklfc3dnT3dLYnBTdk1iSUh6OVZxOEMyWVZxdTlTZ3JMUlRxb2RrLVAzTUJLUWlRSVB6QkNMMVZfaWNYUGNCZk5GQk5XWDZyTHkxWdIBwgFBVV95cUxQVS1iVFphVlRheUcxNlgzYmhnbVFsTUZlbFljTWJGN0drbWZyd014NjRBT0FOSGprMXlkS3pEdFJiT2FuX09PR1BkU0I0eTVfM1lYSkJWSWJxc3ZrMDViNU9WUWJTY1hHQUZSZ0pUZ0JycXhpMTBXXzR6NjdVT3VVLWtXVWdEUHoyNDFocEVuQTZNX1hROXQ
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260307/b9c82f2aab50482fb69b63c615e4d37a/c.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15VEw1WUVXMzJiS0ZBUUVRRjRndzlVQktlajVJQWIxc25Gd18xLWJ4X0Uxa3BTZ2dXVHU4alJTYXNMOFdsdXJSaXdocjVwZlhFd0YxSzJ3UW1sQQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/6/us-and-israel-attacking-iran-at-record-pace-war-monitor-says?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.sky.com/story/weve-taught-toddlers-to-take-cover-living-in-dubai-as-iran-attacks-13516244
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5jaS1FdjUzSFh3Vy03S1JmazRyV1V0ZFF3VzlUblUyV2ZSQmVIYVhwTl9JMnQ2YUVfQUpTdVo5dnB1RHdVUDJ3c01zTVJESzhsV21SZXZRMzVMdw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/634027-who-will-invade-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNakVxRTA4NGhrNkNzRW5ScS1OamsyaHo1enBwTmtGNUdMcU9vVTZBdlRFOUlhdWl2YXlva2ZySmxqMkZDTHJrQVZsUDZxTmxIV2VyTWhQLUM1bURTeUQ0dW9JUF9TMzFGY1pMSmpybi1EZlpadW5HTWIwZGJoWDAtMUNKU0xRNnByRFc5cldXNFlPYzNFZS1rSXBIVk9qV1RqcXlxY3BDOGR6bk9FOWpWOA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1PSWUwWGZyVlU1QVoyOE1PWk1md1MxR1dKRE1iN3U0SHRFZllvTlNxS0x2cDE1amVLUVFFYmVpQ0V4YTlfMmNBNHFTQXZLR0IyVUVRd0Uza2VBXzFaVlU3dUxmM2l3d2tDQ1VxLVdpSGY?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQM212N1dDQVJlUjJlODFrWlVpVUFYWG1oYkoweE1PQUo1Zy1BWGFQX2Z1emFBc1BVUVJHMUU3MTNUck5PYlNwQ2VkZUR3c0lRYlQ4VVl1SEc1OVJTV21HVWZTRGNTQ0FOaWk1TDFMcjlOVENPZUtycEs5ZnRfanNCbnl6cXhvRmQtYldjbTdQY1NzM09tOUpJT0w4cHdMNW00QVNDVHMtdkR4Zm1wQnVEUGpR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/634016-iran-war-trump-division/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUFh4c0djeTJobnBEVmtQeVUyTVJubkw5UGducS02T1pUMjE2QmhDQnM4aVRlSnRacFoxelVIazZnSExCdGZvMnZKcFU2dmt6dzg3WHcwN2FfQjZLaFNKNXpuemRSckxubXdYdGxXeWptek92dXhfaVNSVmlVWTNJaHJjVDY0Z9IBiwFBVV95cUxNNmVWRVloV2N6OHFickp4MVNwT1BLZGd1ckYxWlhYUll2NVNwNHNOVHpTSDJNQXpNM0lhaDJFN1lCYzYzTlBvb1hZVVRwb05RbjkxZS1TdTYyRkl5bGZ2T0o2WTk3aHJSSGVXTWl1MkFBZU5heG9fNDRyTE8zVjJ3QXB5dFMzci1tRDVB?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/6/has-donald-trump-failed-to-sell-the-iran-war-to-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPci1VOHg5YXlMYzh5RkNfcXJsZEZGQlFqVDhMYmpyWEZqR2Q4VzRiVlJ6S2hpUVZia21JRU84aElKV3ExU0lKT0Ffc1R4Z2lRTUNMeTFaWWU3UGQ1LTV4YWJ5eG9nQ3Y3VHl4eUx6Y28xLU04Um56S1dVVjJiWVVLS1NnLXFnQUtXT3NrY29VS29WS2ZnNGJhMmZJbEJuZ1ZHek84RUJJNHlxQ0tSVE1FWlFmMEI?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1ZVkc1SXRLM0I1RU13T2U2V0NrcnJXMFJONDZmYjVDOVFObEE3ODJmVHVjLXFkNGVjVkQwekZjaC1tQWxDdXhiYzlTRm1xMXhkNUFmY0VKLTA5ZnhMOG9HUnJfVGpKMlB1bmNOVlVmOHRUdlRMMk9Jb0hnbw?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNTXVNdVREcHA3Ti1kMmIwUkhQbkt4cmhWdkNQSlJvb3hlX1E1ZXFPRmlQS3JtMUJaMVo4X0g4bElFLUdZRFk5ZG8yUHNrYTYzQnpnVVdZcVdQOHdqZzBLZmNPdWJDcG4zNU5LWjJtelY2WG02OGdKeHZRM0gtRlhQOTBYRjRORk5XSUFYRDRkTFFJVHEwNFpqakhWYnZmMExYQVZoN291bw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/6/us-job-market-stalls-unemployment-rate-rises-before-fed-decision?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpw004xqxnjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [30] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g88q764njo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-03-06
2026-03-06
进展要点
- 美国中央司令部增派情报人员和防空系统，为对伊朗长期军事行动做准备，预计持续至少100天。
- 欧洲央行会议记录发布，但中东冲突可能推迟货币政策正常化，关注通胀应对。
- 英国和西班牙等北约盟友提供军事支持，但直接参与程度有限，政策立场谨慎。
- 特朗普政府依赖军事压力，缺乏备用计划，增加战争失控风险。
- 全球央行可能因油价上涨而面临通胀挑战，利率路径或调整。
- 贸易政策紧张，中国稀土限制措施凸显供应链风险，可能引发报复。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运瘫痪 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀和增长担忧
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金、美元上涨和股市下跌
能源供应冲击 / 商品成本上涨 / 央行政策滞后 / 经济放缓风险
冲突扩大 / 第三方国家介入 / 市场不确定性加剧 / 资产价格波动
来源
France 24 #2 / RT News / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / ECB Press Releases / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-iran-under-heavy-attack
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-global-reactions-and-military-deployments
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-bombing-rages-in-iran-as-war-widens-in-middle-east
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633892-iran-crisis-oil-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260305-iran-la-succession-d-ali-khamenei-s-organise
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-iran-pummeled-by-intensive-airstrikes-as-war-enters-day-six
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNNkItZ0E2aDd2UDRLYm1nWW5KR1EyY05RX3lTUnFOTHpwbnJfckZBR0RjclVNT1paVnRod01rUVgwVTl0dy1KUlB2Y1czZmRZMkNRR1lFaTRnV09FQktuMGRIMnlxVEh6Zk95Vjk0N1dsaVI4Uy1na3ZBcWVNU1NYYkRtMUtGcURZRnpHeFUxaDh4QkRJOGIzUGt2d2ozaGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTnRsclY0NEk5NHVmMHQwd3BzWjhZNWhSblVFaTRBM19KUWFXbjhzVFNIT1FLc2lyWHpXX0NSVmJyUjRUQTlwQWM0MVI2a0NCNDk1Wi01aHZSR3VMVEs0eUh3QThlLWgyT3laR25SaWR5WnFIdk94LXY4Zmd6eEVOQ3pQaDVRdjEzMzhCb1F4cTVzMjVJdjM2RDdMeXJhZ2Q5czJhcmc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603060611491Qk
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026030606043019B
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/rare-earth-yttrium-hits-new-high-up-140-fold-in-1-year-on-china-curbs
- [11] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg260305~4a9b7afe1c.en.html
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/diesel-at-16-month-high-as-iran-war-drives-oil-prices-up-further-13515828
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQZGRlNF9hdHF0dzN0dkZTQU4wWGxla2J6MHB4NkpwalBTVTRrNkxaMWM3TmNVOWZSUEM0TnZ0aXNiNW5XUDhWX1JvOEJLM05tdjFGRlJ2YTQyT040RVdOT2RnYVBrbHFrWU1KSVRtaHFxOTRTbkdHMTFFV1FYSVE2c0VIVWZVTDRDNy1MbGFyVGRYXzJtYjBPbkZHdDRaN3BCT1BSZFVWeWY3UlF6aFdHUG5CV21mZw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/us-house-of-representatives-to-vote-on-latest-effort-to-halt-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260305-how-vulnerable-is-the-gulf-iran-war-escalation-undermines-energy-security
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-us-war-on-iran-has-no-plan-b-warns-scott-lucas-trump-just-wants-to-kill-people-and-blow-stuff-up
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOcGN3STktTEJxdnpGSTc3TUdaWk81eWo0eFR0NmtRaXNBaXhwNF9UV25hZmxPODlsTFplajBmWkJCVEJkYnhicXZncmlVTGJublV3bTFCVC01cDNFY1ZaZ0d4UDJkNWl3S1RWNDd2cl9TRXNzcmVBMm40a3pJcEVNa0VYN0hzS041RVg4TFF0VlhyNHR1aXVjMi1GbEtvYTlKMW5oaGpJckpfQkt2MllEQXdsUnVjR19lYUFVQtIBwgFBVV95cUxPU3FjSXNLdlREWFhzcUdYMkF0U1F3VG1aOE9hREM0VV80RnJwWTljRWhGNGU5NGt3QXR3UVY1ZjUwSU5yOUN4Tm4yNExLYUpWZlB0TlkzUlg2ZFZSZXFfOFNya1VZV1pUQ0tSMmdtbk5RczBfOF9Cb0RZb0xSaC1jNE1XZjF6TEdEZEdxVjJYWTlWMFIwaVZ
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/explosions-rock-tehran-as-israel-intensifies-strikes-on-government-sites?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy884ekn0jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/buildings-devastated-by-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-death-toll-rises-to-77?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-israel-orders-people-to-leave-swathe-of-beirut
- [22] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east-5-march-2026
- [23] https://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-twice-declines-to-rule-out-britain-joining-strikes-on-iran-13515754
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQOUJNX3JOYkZqM1ViTmw1TlpoOUhWT0RkQ0pHeDR6UFhpeHZMWHJ5djlCSnU5WU5PV283ZU1hdHFvTVhDY2ZjQkthWHpZUUJpdjZ5Z2RIMEdFbjBBNlhNU1hfYlNRNFpGNnY3QzlSeHVZeVNHcU5lU21Ud1hVXzFwWk9pREJTOVFsc2NwUXYzVHh0TUJE?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQdVRyUlBoQ3UwOHlodnBjVnJKYnJSS2FmTDVHUkxTQ1dHWG9ucC1sdmFIdVN4dEsxMGE5eGo1Y3VCV2RFbkVvVVRNTDF3Mjg3UVpkUnpUaUt6VXJXUkFmMEl3QmFXT1JOdmRpQmVLMkhGOGxKUi14QzQzdk5TT3NaaExBaUdNN1FGclJCM1ZDdHBacEFiUF9TazNTdUpidUhYWTdYWHFBXzI3TUJtaXIzd0RGSkV6dG8?oc=5
- [26] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/5/aje-onl-tt_irn_usiranmonday_av_v1-020326?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633899-politico-us-preparing-months-long-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxOUWpRVWFsaG5naThuUzljRkpCcjJIenFzeGRnZU5lN1ZIX3VvWFcxMUZJOGVvbTZFaTRNSFcwX1puMGJ2TzhlbF8ybkdLbDJwU1NEUXliVkNxLVA3a3NJVHA3ZnVneXJ3VEpkbEdHeXJXSHJPcTd3MXBxVGU1UlBIZUtFR25ZR1JSb19vY3NHdzd0UExHTEhweEpnTnc0VDR6c0hqYXdBRERwWmFnSjRpT3lqNkF6TU9iN19n?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/5/videos-show-destruction-after-us-and-israeli-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-05
2026-03-05
进展要点
- 美国可能持续对伊朗施加军事压力，目标防止核扩散和削弱伊朗领导层
- 关税上调计划本周实施，特朗普政府强调保护美国利益，但可能面临国内批评
- 潜在外交接触以缓解中东紧张局势，但双方公开立场强硬
- 各国可能出台措施应对石油供应风险，如释放战略储备
- 关注美联储对地缘风险和通胀的货币政策反应
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 中东石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产（黄金、美元）需求
关税上调至15% / 全球贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓和股市波动
地缘风险缓解传闻（美伊接触） / 市场情绪改善 / 股市反弹和油价调整
积极经济数据（美国就业） / 支撑风险资产 / 部分抵消地缘负面影响
来源
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/briefing/the-us-accelerating-its-attacks-on-iran.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxNdjU0NmlDTWxZNnNDQlhDWGdqSHhJbGt6dzRaX21RRTdYVVdXWUF5MG1OMHlOMVFYWHRtZEpmYzJreTRyR3hSbnRKeVBJRHBpdjdoR096dWkzN0FlcEhhZXNNcnIzVU9lMjlmZEZINHI5Q0xnUXpVUmE4MDloaklUQW01YjdHNjM4aDFPbUcyeXZRNzdqbEtJaGtKR3BHOUV1LWowalhtSkxwSHA3OGpsN2s5R3FTY3hhellV0gHAAUFVX3lxTE5JQm81cFJhanQ2VlJoSlZCZGQxZi1YMFdsWV93a3IwN1kwNVQwQVFWWHBPc0g1QXV5S05zZjFlTGtNYWtZZ29RNXR6aHVweUVUcUZVdWxVZTAweEFmMnprd0lZQXFtdnFMVVhqLS00ZDN3ekZ5Nkk5RkZWb1d3OWc4bko5dVozQktkZnpfb3g1VzlrUjJuVnR
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/death-toll-in-iran-surpasses-1000-as-israel-us-strikes-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305073628QBz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050522586xF
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV0UySVFKQmRQOFNKTUpZX2xFbUFaT0Fpa3ZZdFJld0ZTU3o2V1VEWGlxbTJOYTRnTHNPSy1Ed3p5OXJjcWNjRVJsM2ZWeFctZE5mN3BmY3RVcF9mRDh6UEl4ZXNZTG1XLTZMRnVvNllrNldpT3g3M1R1VGxKOVFFa2M1cjNZVHJLbU1Ga2VUeVMwM3pkS21YUDR30gGfAUFVX3lxTFBiNVBqUnNhVGgyUGhqOVZFeEVlODdvcV90OEpjZnRpV1AxR0FzbXgtYkp2RVF0ZkFjajRVb3ZUaHhJS2dOS1FrRGtXS21GdFNaZjlheElfUkNGMlVTaFllWXJfRDRGelFPU0dBRm4wY1UwTWFoN19LSmI5YXI0d2xJc2V6LTAxanIzWVhSS21VOHdUWGFNTGJrMHMya0dZVQ?oc=5
- [7] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1042499/korban-tewas-serangan-as-di-iran-capai-1045-orang
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/international/watch-exact-moment-us-strike-hits-iranian-ship-killing-over-85/articleshow/129033347.cms
- [9] https://abcnews.com/Politics/video/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st-130753852
- [10] https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st/story?id=130752053
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/world/middleeast/iran-navy-ship-sri-lanka.html
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305001514U4x
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/us-submarine-torpedoes-iranian-warship-in-indian-ocean/a-76216943?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9xSDI4dFhkT2E1NklVZXNqMU1hdXJSNEUyMERzSW5xb3BKMm41ZlB1Mk56TFhJMFdzUlhWaGJDcTNmY3Y3YVpjNzZMc2hjR0xYeUdNZEYtQUdzWVdsNlhOdnM3TGdHRTlmX1pXenVraHM?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPNXM5TFNKSmxnUUIyVlVNY1M5Sl9rdkxmSEZ0amVJM1BJQzVLQmNMeENQcDRfLU1TLVh3Ukw4YjRqUnVqM0JOYjV6U0NMVTRrSU8tT2hKOVFqMF82MDNXbjZMRjZvR19lSUFXVTIzQ3pmZTgwTG1PZU1mTVo5cU52TW5aOVJTM1h0QnMxbnFGZm0xdDVIX04xTC1DeGFFa25Oa3VyUWpR?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/over-100-people-missing-after-us-sinks-iranian-military-ship-off-sri-lanka?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxPN3FTcWRwVG9yZlZtYURzOWhjeS1rX2xkQlBJaEJZZFh2TDg2ei1pOHp3eENOVlpHcmZ3UDduOUtRQTdvaUM4OW5lSWlhdEZ3WHFDb2Vzc1lsYmUydWlCN2V6cFBkTlRvdnZ2bjlHa1lvWTE4dlZhei1oNTFJOVZPeTU4Zk9Mb0htRTdON3BCcWVuUjdCbTN3RTZ3dmhQc1h5Mm1ha1k5VkxBZkNCeGE5OWY4Sm5yeXF5RWxaTmRqT2F5YUNoT1haTE4tWmkyR1lDQWFpenB2SExTa2xwbHNVT2d1azBiZE90cjkxaHByRVVOblBYQ3h4dEZuWGFSYnVT?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNZ3o2Z0QySUZYbzZhdzNBVmgyNkRoNW9YYkF1NmlsM3RDTFRLWFY1M0Y1Z0t5bXg3YngtNHpVeTZ5ZmkwOUhYX2tTN2h1bkRQSnNpZmZKS2V3dENRS3NOMGsta2xtd2lVWktmLURjbzNWY09xWVJwc2lzeTFheVRXYkJsTzJGQjhQLVRITjRIZ1VRc3Y2Zi10Z1dzWEhVN1ViQ0NfWUFaU05SZHdYYWNlMFl4SQ?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/us-will-rain-missiles-death-and-destruction-on-iran-trump-aides-say?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/4/traders-mint-money-on-betting-platforms-on-us-israel-strike-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1TUi1od2ZDcDNHZHdmaTNhbEREZjV3OTNCZjBPdjluQXYxYWplQ1ZlaTVid1MxRzJZMDMzSjJQSXdlbkkzeTJDWnZ3SUNFREVLX2c3eFI2TG5zUQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/4/how-is-the-war-playing-out-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/trump-us-forces-doing-very-well-on-the-war-front-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-may-be-hiked-to-15-this-week-scott-bessent/articleshow/129055667.cms
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305075648wwf
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050754285ab
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99jjr7d40yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305072036cok
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-rates-us-war-effort-15-out-of-10-vows-to-push-on-against-iran/articleshow/129051534.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305065435LlX
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
进展要点
- 美国可能继续军事打击伊朗，但面临国际压力和国内反对。
- 欧洲国家如法国呼吁遵守国际法，可能部署军事力量以维护地区稳定。
- 中东国家需调整能源政策以应对供应中断，可能寻求替代来源。
- 全球央行可能面临通胀压力，需权衡货币政策应对能源价格上涨。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力和股市下跌
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 风险资产抛售
特朗普贸易威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 市场波动和避险资产流入
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/4/iran-live-news-us-embassy-in-dubai-hit-israel-pounds-tehran-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/idf-destroys-secret-nuclear-over-211910871.html
- [3] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4097728-us-military-says-over-1700-targets-hit-in-iran.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633639-energy-markets-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/2f0d9742944b4a138d93fb39776d074f/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9HcW90OWVjOXIxeDRKc3N4MGNfRkFMRjUtT0VhT2oyeHlsUm91OUZUYWR3TmRudjBGYWJYVWdKRGh2TTNLQnhuaXlEYnpBRE1kVU13Q0htb0lBTXdYMDVYUzBYR1p1azJhUjZrOU5R0gFzQVVfeXFMUDBRTDhHXzNvVFp3dTBfU1ByZEVySElzenoxU0M3QUtzcmY2R2ZYRldEVm9JZnNMQTFJTmdNUXQ4akxfYzBHWTZ2SkJvYm1XY0JHZGp5ZW01aXhRbFJvX2NxeVFaWmZqRVNOLVZHeTRpU2hPdw?oc=5
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBHbDdHZ2IyRkpZbjc0WDF1WG9SMkxNWTJNdTlhUmlZNVdHQU5PaVFXT0Q2MngyemZNblpqckhKcG9Pa0hmQkJqMWhPOWZpMjBtMmhuWmNUZFFIdnh1Q2dDQUNyOFZ1M1VxRlVaV3VaZjVZWmlJT25Wdw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/53a69df4e0d74a8eb47ff5e82c504e40/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNb0J1ejdjZU56ZlQ4Z2ZkLVNJZWdyendSUFZFNGJxSTlVQnlQRno5RzV3RjFMWUw5anpjajNFVUkwUDVvVEZRb1F4ME1lZndpa2JuMUdWc2RMV19LRGFabWJ4bmEwdkNxZFhsNXB2UEtuRWY2czVRS3MtMjhNc09qcjZsWkhna0tCWDFORkxfNXA0bVRMZEg5SXkydHFXWDE1M2E3MGlBdmU?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxObDJhQXpCWDFZY2ExMWlvM20td3I1a1pJRFdkQ2Joakh3SkpmWTNMWDdjMVVNbnpwd0lrcHRVeG5IMmNGRDRtMFhnYUVPMGplT3BHRzRHVVdWemUwd2p1R2JwZkE4ZjUzZzBrbXZONkMzeWk5R0lLZjhTbEc4aEVBWktqSQ?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOTTR3OWFWWFo1ZTZLRUV4R2NzUXVRV3Z6UUFGNWtJQ1hJU1JDMEN0Sml1ZnZaUXlsYTQ2TGx1NlBoTUxlWmFnQWkxcXNvYVJFX0IzSEpWXzFZUUQwaVllN1ZDcGRGeTd2czFhMkRucW9ZeG5aVWdUOU8xVGM1X2xHSzNOaExta0dpaGJlbW5vR3RRdERmMHNoeDl3OVdEZGdxT1E5N3hpcHNCY0hH?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNaFM1X0dITWZ2b2lSOEluZjVabjJnOVA0dmM3VmNWbTFpbFp4TnFOQ1huOWxSeWNZMHlWaTBYakFwX0psTkJJVEo2M3M4X3NudmJQLUdKTFhLa1ZUd2wzOXE5Zl80NDlBX2dGcHVTR1NCOGdlckQ0R0xFQmxZZS11NQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOWk44LTU4dDlfaDJqb2hvSzJ0X2JHWlAyaVEzX1FRYVZBSVV2QWUtNU1LaUpvUkR3V0pJQjJNTHlVSkxzM0Rad3ZLemU1eDlTUlJlRmxkeVhGNDFzU0R3NkZnTzdVal9tc01fLXRrSEktd1dWUnVtQ0o1MjB2dzF0ZlpTcmNyX1hrS2dvUHdleWtBRGxkOV82dFlISUZkN1ctOEZIdk5jeUdIaExrTmQxRlJTUWVLaGRT?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-strikes-saudi-infrastructure-pushing-211940999.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/unpacking-us-justification-for-iran-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQWk9Nb1JVRVF4OGJyQXZDNjBjOXl0dTNXMDM1ZDE1RF9LSVJoTjFyZk03UUZTSFd6eFhodlZUNUgzMzJRbDh4TUpjdkVvWGpBZmhDZy0tRTRYUzdLdlc3UzRHd25CQUZNbXhKWnc0Sm5XQ283QXZCUi0yQk5STW1yenBtT3ZpM2w2aV8zWUhRWkpJWF9xU0w4M2RpYTFMMEJrYWNR?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxOMzQ1dXdtQ1lEOWZzclZuVU4tSERVU21JcnFxRFhVUF9uMWpnd1A3dTJWanE4SGJpRkp2QzhFdVlweV9DNEJkeEdLdl9UUGxCVS1HMUFjSDdjQWNYdEdTbzJCand2NFRVSjZxUkNLSU02bUpCQnR2ajVWcXA2a251ZEhTS3ZIejB0b3VtYnBjeG16T3VwVkdUcVZGMlRnRlEwYzlnVE1xelYzM2hTOXpFc2dNbGdudGxPX1czZm5TOG5BZVJrbzllemJqLVo?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBSN3NFbjZjS0ZpRm1qUnBKbGl6Yjh1Q29YYWZ1ODQyYVNnX2NydVpWODZkTHBRM08yQnZKZFZ0bHo0Q2dYQ2NERkJrdVlnZFl1Q2tmZVVaZGM1c2hGckp4LWxlLWU5S094LXc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zg54g5vvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQWm1TOGdTSmpTb3FHRzJjeGNZTDR0Y2pNaTVCeVNnbG9GRS1SRy1mb19IcFNuWE9hR1hXSkc2N2dvZU1Pd29Pdi1nWXZTQm1hME5aMkp2ZFNXWDJmbHRUMHhmNVZuN0FaSjV3Sk1mRTU0cXpOM18xWW1PXzFYS0hMRUFoakM1ckZIMVM0cTRlbXJPMUk1M1lHRThiQjhUYl9HZ3VqTE93dU0wdw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/travellers-stranded-airlines-under-pressure-as-iran-war-escalates?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/3/what-are-the-implications-of-irans-strikes-on-gulf-arab-states?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/633653-iran-minab-schoolgirls-funeral/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5lz0vgy52o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE9ZNnlqYV9mM1ZRZnc0MFlGRXZvVzdJZkVKMHZHN2tqeE40dXItRHBqZTBBMHJVVFpUT1JMekRUY21DVm5qZjc3Y3BFQ0Mwd05SZkI2OFhUa1hhdTBSMFZj?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/worst-case-scenario-trump-weighs-replacing-khamenei-as-leader-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPSTNiY2docGxMcHdCNjhHZjBJbWRTUmJDU1ZYR0tHVFdMc095a2VMSzBLaUxIa0hmdWFfM1NtaDgzcmlrUWE2QWFFSGNPelY1dWZET21NdWZlVENtU2VVVXZNdks0Rm91SU5FMVBDTUN0UGpxMXpjQkU1MUEteEpkZEFkdVVvbllmYlJPSC12WlQ?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/us-will-provide-insurance-for-ships-in-gulf-amid-iranian-attacks-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-girls-staff-killed-in-us-israel-strike-on-minab-school?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPenNLZHlGTHVkdFBkR3BNYmRZcWtDdTdscGt2aklhN1AzbzM5OUFhV0ktRE54RjVTMF9vWFhZWmpJb1VOOU81X1NvbGwtWXE4cnN4NEtxWUMyczJlWTFNZjNtWmowMDRYWXpXRzNhak1hTzhxVTBEcC1lQ3NOSlp0dDE4RjRkWmtkeEZfRmgwSTJEemdBanfSAZsBQVVfeXFMT2tmeGx3eHp1cnVGRGdvMkdNOTRMRkZqWjlLa1J3N24xZVFuenAzSjd3NGxFT3BjbklJRnc5cjhJa0oyVkhLbWRfako0QlY3Y3lXLUlOZU8yeWdjSDdIeXI1N1Z1RXVxTnVPeVFnQXlmRmotSHVJOURXeEFJOWRYOUx0MVA3aTE2MXcxS2h6NURjaV9fUlgtOXRGc0k?oc=5
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步升级军事行动，包括派遣地面部队，以摧毁伊朗导弹能力和核计划
- OPEC+可能调整产量政策以应对市场波动，增产决定旨在稳定油价但效果不确定
- 各国政府可能释放战略石油储备以缓解油价冲击，如韩国已宣布储备208天
- 美联储等央行加息路径可能受油价上涨驱动的通胀压力影响，政策立场或更鹰派
- 美国敦促公民撤离中东多国，反映地区安全局势恶化，可能影响外交和经济活动
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力增加和避险情绪上升
伊朗反击和美国攻击 / 军事不确定性扩大 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
OPEC+增产 / 石油供给增加 / 油价下行潜在压力 / 通胀预期缓和和市场稳定
油价上涨 / 全球能源成本上升 / 影响经济增长和企业盈利 / 股市波动加剧
来源
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083504hC0
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/new-wave-of-heavy-israeli-strikes-hit-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303074950oQe
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030738314Rj
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303065730vHK
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/633541-iran-attacks-us-bases/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-man-who-wanted-to-destroy-israel/a-76169184?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/us-israeli-strikes-hit-housing-hospitals-and-more-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303050236bRV
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxOZy1DTC1Kb2dRcFNJR19MUWpWY3JIajBQTFJoQ3JYdWYtZnNEMGZSYWRVbzZHZ2RSYjg5bEJ2bkpTZHRzQzFlLUhfeHZmZEZRWkJEY29PNjRHYTFhbF9jblpfT2d5Y2RMWmtUaHNnLWlhbk5yRk8tXzlLLUVDQmVZS1pROExLVXRMeTNhTmR6SGdWQXdRS1FPaXVTR3VUOThzd3FPeUt6VE1PQWxCRi1Qa2RrSUR4YVJjcm9Va1FTVXJaZVNPMWJWbU8xM3ZSZw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPRmJEdk53OEpnU01zWnRIak5FX2QzbjNMVGQwWm5DYUVhbmNCZzJiNXRiU2Q0c3FGU2RjWllLVUZmMF9HaWZUbmd4SzJTRUU5eU1GWWdLN0g0cUEyVVBpdGRYZ05NS3RQZU5Zdm5TUGRreFpNSUNBX1kyLTFoSnVUN3NCSUM1OFpJUTE2X3o4cDE0emk3TEMw?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPSjBuZWZ3MVFPbDJUc3YwOF9kNTJWSzYzS19ZYl9RdDUwTmFRV2E3RzJuUDVyck54VzZVX1Z4NUdhZzFHSlVVVE5XMFZFYWRwOGRFMjgxcnJDekZrNG0xdmIzMkVlbk9ldzJsTXktNTRFTXRENWlOYXNTa3RBempwRmt0eDdNVUdvekFaNTB5MFVzMTluSV9aWWtrYUVmQkFyNEZwenJKWmZ2ZFE?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNU2NHaE5XeDg3VUE2STYwLW9pcDhQMDIyblFwcDVwMGlaWUJGQzJkY1NyRTAtVS05QmpVakFfMWNSRzlJd1poLWZsSkhHMmJRa3Q5Wlh3UF94WDJaSkVLSmlILUlaZXIxa0pUMjRMbG1yM2NldVlwZURDMHpvZmFCLTV6VWlGclJzYXZR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083926kBk
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303084656Em8
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNeTZ6OFhCUVdnVUxtci1wbHNTSXZ0azNyTkRRbjN1aG5WNW5sQlVPSjhNbUZncFc3VHh5RlEzUk1FbjRGZTF5dHJRbVJSVThabWNiLWVIcmRhZUNMMjEwTW55UXVKdldlVVAyX0Z6Tl9MeVJVOEJWZ1NkbVdFOExkejJHbU93d2FhOVZRYVRLM2U1SWJRSEtqUEdabWRYV3Yxc3lrbDd6SF9NZDVWeW1lWmVZQTNONDlFRUNYa2FJSU5nV25v?oc=5
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083641gZ7
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579735.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579730.shtml
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579729.shtml
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030756415hf
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603030719278Kr
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303071916e5r
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579727.shtml
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSDVsRnRWUEg4c2hacEhwbkxLUEhyOEVfY05xRjVEajh4ZWFfOVVXb2Y0dEZsNGN1aXBMdjJIYTVwV2M0YmNnd253RDdBSTkyNW5QYTFJeHNMU1dwcUJSQW9memxMZXJuRHVOckt3U1p3WnJtVmx5NE52RWlpQ0M4VmdOODJOTkRNWGN2a0U1b0ZTTWpONDhHMnczZTVDT0I4S0ZFdjBNUmlwZm1CTUFqNFdxTQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/00df4d951aa739aa.html
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/6b03954374bb387d.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNaHRKQ2JvNjhkZG5YUl9SWjhGR2JSekg0ZmkwalBqUHpfcFU4X3Rkc2d5Nl9nOFR2UmJjeVUwZ3pIU196SEFqU285WXpHVHU1TDU4VnBXYzVlamhRRzJMREsxWXRybDlVTi12TTRXVDdzaENfVGdqd1N6T2ZTYkxyWE5adjBabkY3aE5ScTVjbG5vZw?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/rubio-suggests-timing-of-us-strikes-on-iran-was-influenced-by-israeli-plans?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
进展要点
- 美国可能加强军事部署，总统特朗普誓言继续攻击。
- 伊朗临时领导委员会可能寻求外交途径或升级冲突。
- 联合国安理会已召开紧急会议，呼吁克制。
- 全球各国可能实施制裁或支持外交解决。
- 中国和俄罗斯呼吁停火，推动多边对话。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘政治不确定性 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨
冲突外溢至其他地区 / 全球供应链中断 / 股市下跌
美国军事行动持续 / 财政支出增加 / 美元走强
来源
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260302085315eAe
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNa3BOSmhLc1liQ1h5MWdwSlI3VkxvYlNtOThEeTFnRGFzR2tXeU9TZzV3WDNpVjEwWVRvT05SMVBFdjV2Ul9FdU9lR0pfeWV2dlZydUw3bWEtX0VVRlpVSjZ6cERqTkVYWDZfbUczaXkzRkgtOEhKREpFNW5TeUU4U05ONi10ZUdKUVJSVW5KWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/4db67bdab48842a693808cc24803f9b3/c.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633393-khamenei-killing-america-and-israel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579069.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579053.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579071.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQNFBVczFkN1FqZGZQWW82VEdNemVCS0VpSm9OLUxRVGNzZnAtUDJ4TnR5Wi04M2JhRmExT2gwV3Z6TDhiLWx6ZjhjSkhFVGVFdlRNZy1qM09HUVVvdEwtNTRVM054UTFCaWtlTjR3VmtQRy1rMVl3bjJROXVycnNfOTdXXzhBYTBIMzcxSXRWdkZEa3dBRG5NbGxn?oc=5
- [9] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260301-premiers-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-tu%C3%A9s-lors-de-l-op%C3%A9ration-contre-l-iran
- [10] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-s-revolutionary-guards-pledge-revenge
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-hits-tehran-as-iran-s-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-is-killed
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260301-tensions-rise-over-strait-of-hormuz-as-tankers-caught-in-crossfire
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-targets-us-bases-in-retaliation
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260301-iran-s-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-has-died-what-are-the-reactions-on-the-gorund
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/us-confirms-american-troops-killed-wounded-in-iran-clashes/a-76177887?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579029.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579027.shtml
- [18] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c363zkp1pgxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/633367-jihad-is-coming-khameneis-death/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/video/latest-us-israel-attack-iran-130647282
- [21] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/israel-strikes-tehran-as-irans-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-was-killed/article70691620.ece
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/8fdd8eced80a4f8ebcff41ababa9766e/c.html
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/ali-chamenei-der-mann-der-israel-zerstören-wollte/a-76168647?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.dw.com/de/trump-verkündet-großen-kampfeinsatz-gegen-den-iran/a-76160970?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQN1lCSVpTTkdMUnJsbXdkR1NaQVg5Y0xWRWVCWEdCRjJpZlpabEs1RDdvYmNPU2w3OXl4aHlscGF1dVYwcjJCTi1FVnZybjBMQzNyc3JUeEZISV9WeWNQckU4Qjh4ZGVpTVNueGhGNTJRVlM2YklKQjl3QjVtNWtNZ3FSSDBCX1BrZUd3ZFdGX2lGaGNNQmFYNDJkdDdqQnFkc1BEQg?oc=5
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/khamenei-s-death-never-thought-i-would-see-this-day/a-76175776?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633168-world-reacts-us-israel-attack-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633328-iran-airspace-chaos-stranded/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/more-strikes-aimed-iran-us-035109978.html
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWlRWdS1HSGlJd3dKSkZBbWxwRGtTV1hIaDNydm1mbTlhc2VFN1dqTkRxdVRmdWZjbDZjQVlVZnFvZjVKUThJRHQwMDFja3B6RTJINlNCSGkwTEs4cFpycmhOREVmS2dkT0ctYWxCU2lwV004alg2UlZxcW5WMFFYS1NSR0hibzJEUjZrSjlaUmJ2M3dacFF3ZXFR?oc=5
2026-03-01
2026-03-01
进展要点
- 美国可能持续军事行动直至伊朗政权更迭，但面临国内法律和国际压力。
- 联合国安理会召开紧急会议，寻求外交停火，但美俄分歧可能阻碍进展。
- 各国或释放战略石油储备以平抑油价，并加强能源供应链多元化。
- 央行可能调整货币政策应对油价驱动的通胀，但增长担忧限制激进收紧。
- 伊朗宣布40天全国哀悼，临时领导委员会选举新领袖过程受关注。
关联路径
美以打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀和增长放缓
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市和风险资产下跌
伊朗政权真空 / 区域不稳定 / 石油供应中断 / 能源市场动荡
地缘政治风险 / 央行政策不确定性 / 利率和汇率波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-01/10578570.shtml
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085431RoG
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085325DhA
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-leadership-khamenei-shamkhani-pakpour-nasirzadeh.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080040SGr
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301082402NCK
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080138VzD
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003155315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-after-us-israel-strike-iran-issues-unforgettable-lesson-10-things-to-know/articleshow/128900888.cms
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-in-us-strike-who-are-his-potential-successors/articleshow/128898535.cms
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-iran-strike-heavy-and-pinpoint-bombing-will-continue-what-trump-wrote-as-he-announced-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128898991.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-leader-who-shaped-irans-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003154315
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633223-they-didnt-catch-iran-off-guard/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003153315
- [16] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003152315
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003151315
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-attack-iran-plume-of-smoke-rises-near-burj-khalifa-as-iran-missile-attack-hits-dubai-video-captures-chaos/articleshow/128894990.cms
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260301040750Sgd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603010443058D5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxQeXIwVVpWbERtSnFRX3BjR042VUl2SmpmdnE0VzBHWU93UkxNMzF2dUFRdGVwcl90NHBXYllORG1OcGhGX1ZEZHltUERPWjVnZHpQX3ppLXJUcmFPS0dBVHFqdmV3WkhBdWVHeE1oZU90cUt3UHZCX2pCQkdPWkloSS1Fc3BGUnJOQ3NyWEpmcVNCTUhyUnJoS1NuT01qM2hQTnYzRXA1M1F1RUp2enBuaDg1SUJwYkFPME1XdkRvTndQYmRkMC1sWm9GOA?oc=5
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260228-en-direct-isra%C3%ABl-lance-une-attaque-pr%C3%A9ventive-contre-l-iran-d%C3%A9cr%C3%A8te-l-%C3%A9tat-d-urgence
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260228-live-israel-says-launched-preventive-strike-against-iran-declares-state-of-emergency
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNREtzcnNZRS1jT3FXeExGamY5ck55emtiMjBYVXpkbjQyT0FzZDRQcHFIMEVEbDFMRHUtMEs4MlZYUmdzZVUwZmJkQ3AxbGdGU1R4RXdLQ3hqX2ZlV0piZjJ0VFI0MFlkTzdvWjF3WnQxMGVsaVdQS2pfTlZzZmpuU1RvYlF5NS04NGxnb05ReXAySl9Zd1E?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOYkVZQzRBSzJXaEM1WmhhRmN3LTRqUW93dzZ4bTA0WWRqNTlTZ2JsX0dQQUlOemN1MXZNSFd4bmdUOTlON3p3TVdOcXZ6MHpPRGhSRHFYSGZfX0FqNjVtTkxhLVMzN3JqWEJyY2pMb1VrLXJndldJOVpzXzhQZzF6UE1fY3NidDBaNk40SGhYNWRCaG9TMkhmZkVrU2RqXzBnd3FCQU9Icw?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-strike-iran-what-happened?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633237-has-wwiii-just-started-whats-happening-iran-israel-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g0pnnj8xyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-en-iran-aucun-moyen-de-cette-ampleur-n-avait-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-d%C3%A9ploy%C3%A9-depuis-2003
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-isra%C3%ABl-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-frappent-l-iran-comment-l-op%C3%A9ration-s-est-elle-d%C3%A9roul%C3%A9e
2026-02-28
2026-02-28
进展要点
- 德国通胀下降至1.9%，或促使欧央行提前降息，提振风险资产
- 欧盟军事建设加速，国防开支目标提高，长期影响财政政策
- 美国对伊朗实施新制裁和旅行警告，外交与军事手段并用
- IMF对乌贷款提供短期财政支持，但还款能力依赖国际援助，风险极高
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力上升
欧洲核威慑 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产上涨
俄乌管道中断 / 能源安全担忧 / EUR和欧股承压
德国通胀下降 / 欧央行降息预期 / EUR下跌、德债上涨
来源
Times of India / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / The New York Times / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dont-want-to-but-sometimes-you-have-to-trump-again-warns-iran-of-possible-military-action/articleshow/128861540.cms
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/633137-nordic-nations-host-nukes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-allows-staff-to-leave-israel-as-trump-attack-on-iran-looms/a-76157922?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/inflation-rate-faellt-ueberraschend-unter-zwei-prozent-marke-a-91486dcb-02d3-42ac-b7c4-cf9b68bbdbfd
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/633125-iran-us-talks-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/27/aje-onl-irn_genevatalks2026_av_v2-260226?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096330-war-update-57-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-heaviest-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/633113-hungary-slovakia-druzhba-commission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/middleeast/us-embassy-jerusalem-authorized-departure.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096266-at-ramstein-ukraine-unveils-its-war-plan-secures-historic-partner-support-dm-fedorov.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPWmZ0NnBLOEhNMzdJUUlXWnhFdWRpLW10eG5OWHZCT2FHM0U2dzUyVTg2enNtM0Roblg4VHdmU0s1WUUwLUNxN3hFOGdIUEdnX0t5cFNXakdIM0s4dzNYdTRlRk1OemQ4bENPSGdvOWRfbnd6aG1qV2dxZVNZdWdFQkI5ajl5WW00ZmZxY1hab2o?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/vp-vance-says-us-sees-222809233.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/hong-kong-linked-company-decries-search-of-panama-canal-port-offices?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633148-pentagon-anthropic-national-security-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/633147-americans-warning-iran-rubio/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kriegserklaerung-von-pakistan-das-sind-die-hintergruende-zum-konflikt-zwischen-pakistan-und-den-taliban-a-4098daa5-213b-4876-87a9-e33eb8edd2bf
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/633141-iraq-militia-us-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/633144-ukraine-shut-oil-pipeline-fico/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iaea-eyes-isfahan-nuclear-complex-as-it-urges-iran-to-allow?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/ukraine-claws-back-southern-territory-as-russias-war-enters-fifth-year?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633145-imf-approve-loan-kiev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-auswaertiges-amt-raet-dringend-von-reisen-ab-a-780a281e-d0b8-4b9f-9134-52e69a85d120
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQRC1jOE50RkxUYkw1YzVFamg3M0xOQjk4LVMzNmxJVTZMVEhqUGJMakVDbjBBaUJSVHVsUFc2V2EtVEtiMXlhd0VfNmNSY1pUV1BQbzd3VTRCTUZWOHdpdEdKOFNRbHp1ZkJTZGFrQ0JJWU9iUjVqSEdMQVVzaEJvS0I1b0RlZV9kQ0RKRmVsSFkyYjlsT3dNT2lFcVBkQjZkVlpjRFBVTlNiNFUxX3lzSA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/633139-us-wants-war-iran-ritter/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/marco-rubio-plans-israel-trip-as-trump-says-hes-not-happy-with-iran-talk?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633132-pakistan-and-afghanistan-are-at-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNNEJmUVJrMUpHUHZicWN1NlJHTmlYa3BfdXI4UTdDS3dhbDlGbFdzQzQ1MGxUYVU2ckxsT3FnSEl2eXdDRlozODAxZzgtMXJuUmItMVF5QThVcFllZ2dCa0xWLTVXemhfeHFKem11Rk5kV1RpUnE1WnNHVDBkMHZKTlJLSkIxWW15ZVgxOG5PUHplUGkyZGE4aGpocWFTYWo0S1VJYw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096376-russian-army-attacks-three-districts-of-dnipropetrovsk-region-over-three-dozen-times-causing-damage.html
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/27/residents-describe-panic-as-pakistan-attacks-afghanistan-in-open?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iran-says-us-must-drop-excessive-demands-in-nuclear-negotiations?traffic_source=rss
2026-02-27
2026-02-27
进展要点
- 日本央行理事暗示加息以应对通胀风险，市场关注货币政策转向信号。
- 韩国央行维持基准利率2.5%不变，上调2026年增长预期至2%，反映亚洲经济韧性。
- 美国抵押贷款利率三年来首次跌破6%，借贷成本降低可能刺激经济活动。
- 欧盟推出900亿欧元乌克兰援助计划，财政扩张增加欧元区债务压力。
- 中国实施对日出口管制，贸易政策趋紧，可能影响全球供应链。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌核威胁 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金上涨、股市下跌
中美贸易摩擦 / 供应链中断 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
日本央行加息暗示 / 日元升值 / 全球利率预期调整 / 套利交易逆转
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / German Foreign Office Press Releases / KBS World News / German Federal Foreign Office
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577302.shtml
- [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-met-us-trade-104937996.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/633096-ukraine-nukes-france-uk-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202602270343599DY
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/boj-board-member-hints-at-rate-hikes-to-keep-ahead-of-inflation-risk
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/2757498-2757498
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227013818iIw
- [8] http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=199741
- [9] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2758258-2758258
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095967-war-update-120-combat-clashes-since-dawn-afu-have-success-in-northern-slobozhanshchyna-and-kursk-sectors.html
- [11] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/e4f19a798abdc080.html
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/633078-iran-and-united-states-met-geneva/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/02/24/declaration-des-dirigeants-du-g7-sur-la-guerre-en-ukraine
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/how-trumps-2026-iran-war-script-echoes-and-twists-the-2003-iraq-playbook?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577282.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577278.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577293.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577292.shtml
- [19] https://news.sky.com/story/significant-progress-in-us-iran-talks-but-no-deal-as-negotiations-to-resume-next-week-13512695
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-fall-below-6-for-first-time-in-over-3-years-110032209.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633101-iran-us-geneva-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-good-progress-in-us-talks-next-round-within-a-week/article70681431.ece
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227065659cma
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghanistan-launches-military-strikes-on-pakistan-updates/article70681434.ece
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/26/iranian-foreign-minister-says-us-iran-moving-closer-to-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633087-thomas-penn-franco-british-nuke-plot-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633076-us-iran-nuclear-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/us-and-iran-meet-in-geneva-for-talks-amid-military-posturing/a-76128226?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4096039-next-round-of-peace-talks-to-be-held-in-abu-dhabi-in-early-march-zelensky.html
2026-02-26
2026-02-26
进展要点
- 美联储政策受地缘风险和通胀影响，利率路径不确定性增加。
- 日本央行再通胀派任命可能推动宽松政策，日元贬值压力上升。
- 欧洲央行关注贸易紧张和能源风险，货币政策保持谨慎。
- 澳大利亚通胀持稳，但RBA可能维持鹰派立场以控制通胀。
- 美国关税政策实施细节待明确，全球贸易协议面临调整。
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
美国关税 / 全球贸易收缩 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
BOJ宽松预期 / 日元贬值 / 亚洲货币压力 / 区域汇率波动
来源
RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/633038-us-f22-israel-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-nuclear-talks-deal-or-military-strike/a-76120548?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010600315
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010651315
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5VWWp2VmJHb0liMGVrZE5KMVFSTGdtcnZmWFJGc3BYNllRZTBuQmIzMHRteEZhaWJRem8xeTdPWTJlbXAzMzhtUkVOUEt2c0VlZGNaaHBtTU05UDhlXzRIQ2NBS3NpUkZkdHlUTVAwQmo?oc=5
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/japan-picks-reflationists-for-boj-board-echoing-takaichi-s-policy-view
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/us-issues-new-sanctions-as-it-dials-up-pressure-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-trump-lays-out-case-for-possible-attack-on-iran-in-state-of-the-union-address
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge821xwyz8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/7e819bdee446797a.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260225214248P2A
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/2/25/four-years-into-the-ukraine-war-moscow-sees-vindication-not-failure?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/bJ0L6pzhsU8kjJi3lMFRi
- [14] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/nvidia-reports-73-revenue-jump-but-warns-on-china-uncertainties
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kuba-grenztruppen-greifen-us-schnellboot-an-vier-tote-a-8d7b55c4-a9e2-4b05-96f5-ad2e4b8dbbd4
- [17] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095617-ukraine-insists-at-un-on-ceasefire-as-basis-for-peace-talks-betsa-says.html
- [18] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-roughly-2-week-low-against-us-dollar-on-boj-board-picks
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/business/trump-tariffs-refunds-lawsuits.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260225-discours-sur-l-%C3%A9tat-de-l-union-de-d-trump-l-am%C3%A9rique-d-abord-%C3%A0-quel-prix
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cant-let-craziest-regime-to-have-nuclear-weapons-jd-vance-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-geneva/articleshow/128791664.cms
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095557-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-russian-s400-triumf-pantsir-and-grad-systems-in-occupied-territories.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-iran-us-talks-set-to-resume-in-geneva-as-trump-ups-pressure
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/world/asia/china-germany-merz-visit-xi.html
- [25] https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/Jim-Chalmers-2022/media-releases/Inflation-steady-in-January
- [26] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/O5M0QLVwbVE7A1uwQIJj-
- [27] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2757258-2757258
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633024-iran-nuclear-trump-accusations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxQWWhpcEY4Rk1HMUE1S2dFd1pGcVRZQ1hibjl1WXBqamtRaXhyam1XbVE0Y1RoTkhWSFYwQVpPbFFJM21NTXZPdFd4cWtTMmlPdjE2V3ktd3dLXzIzNnlQMFpCNnVQVlZFUndQQnVGTWd5Tk5rWFkzME5IMVdaVnU1RmxmTHI?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSFc3VlA2cG5id0ZOQ0dxemtYc2VhSkJtZVg4ZzZhaU5XMzVTOVRxMnRNQ01TNTgzTG84UjdQZHJLaW9lQi1uNjY2ckN5NGpvNmthWjZ1ZG5BWklKRl9hVTBsSWFaY1M5aW9xblZXdVNKTGI4OUxoR3VKcjlmeGRwVlh4QlhEZDl3UnByVUFEc044dnI2cGVBTUZyM2lhYjFWa0ZMWVBaRmgtZU96VUh0Tkcxdw?oc=5
2026-02-25
2026-02-25
进展要点
- 美联储货币政策保持中性，贴现率会议纪要未释放激进信号。
- 美国贸易政策波动，特朗普可能通过新法律依据实施额外关税。
- 欧洲继续支持乌克兰，但需协调内部分歧以维持制裁效力。
- 日本通胀放缓可能促使日央行维持鸽派立场，支持股市。
- 中国科技产业政策加速，芯片自给目标推动供应链调整。
关联路径
美伊紧张升级 / 中东供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌战争持续 / 能源和粮食供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
美国关税政策波动 / 贸易不确定性 / 全球增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
涉台紧张 / 区域风险升级 / 避险情绪 / 日元和黄金需求增加
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Fed / State Duma of Russia - News / German Federal Government News / ANTARA News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576199.shtml
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576183.shtml
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/2/24/state-of-the-union-live-trump-to-address-nation-amid-tariff-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQR0dENGtNRnNpRjFmX0UzLW5YbW1pRE5sdjN1S3VpbkhfcC1FV2p3V3dtZlN1cGk4UVN6R05ockNfT3QyVGZtNHd5cV9wZnBVRDBqbDlBS1FXdV80Y0J3dmpfWVNPdHF4eVRoLTRLQWNnX2RvMVJEdjN2NEpLa3RLR25iM1VrS1dWb0w5OXBfcnRkdllJcHp4NExoYTk0OXQybXdCQ1kzUGdjSlhL?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQbXAxc2wwZEZXQjdxSnVZZXNmVVdDSzc0NzdGYXFzNDEzS1lUQ19QaXJtZ3lSV3U0bDBYNWNPQV9ndFZWU1REaUJLVWZaMTFFajJBOG9wT2VMSUM2LTJ2a0FzakVwY19vSlAwQkptQTAwZGdzdzQ4Vms1OHoxVm16NHJfa2FnaEtRay1FYlVJcGRDcnh3blZjdDJ4OV9WLXQ0WWRHVVMzX2V2bE5jMVJDYnZETQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNb2VFeXBiRnh2UFlkampWRER5cThwZHZUQ2Z3VGlRaW44Sk4wYVA4Tm1qX0d2VGJIN0lpTjY3Q2dYcVY3cHo3dnptN0JyWE9zRmtlWFZUXzZPZlRQMEF5dmhwZ2VBQmdiZDQ4T082RDVCaDVWSmNsVktrUGoySWVMSTNnNWV3WVZOVXZYWTFhODZnMGxBQ3pDcW5IMW9FaWoxOGRCYzFXRFc5UFHSAbABQVVfeXFMTmxDb21QY2d6LUQyc3lCYXRXaWNOeklZUV9LVHNJazJvZVFpWTN4WWRtd19XYXZKUmNzUkVxbVFZLVJqX3RieW5vNDZfYVpKNFBRU3RheUU4RlNPSXBuZU1GMVpwMWlXMmF5MEw2QXBDYXpMUUtqZ3l4bVplN09haWU1MW5pWnlzdjVjb2xyRmhVakRsQ3BRLURKWkE3ZHBESmpPb1VxMjZ
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNMVoxQzM1QW93QTNXV0R2RzB1ZWVyLWI0VW9FSHlKWk5FUTB0YkpNc2lCNTFHd01ZOTNQUEhpQXFQWXY3VHlzMUVudHdvdUFDNFZmWjFSdVp5bGUwejNUWXppTTJNbHN3SURJTzcwSVNrenpodjFpMUN0THlOQ0FhZkx0aHl2cTg0d21iS1lLLXYtcUJCaFExVlJVR1VLblQ4SlprdFI4c3dSLUZjSGFmUkx0OV90MUVGcnYwUWFYZmdTeUE5?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE9yc1hKTEpwV3h5SkMwTjVFUmY0Q3d3blo0TWNXMzAwajlnb1dMOUZCTGVaeGxkUUFCcm8wRUZrel80VWZOUlBudzJiS2NzTWZKMkJ2MQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260224a.htm
- [10] http://duma.gov.ru/en/news
- [11] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/co-chairs-statement-coalition-of-the-willing-call-24-february-2026-2408478
- [12] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5435854/china-desak-as-hentikan-tarif-global-sepihak-baru-10-persen
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/632991-kallas-russian-assets-theft/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095073-war-update-50-clashes-on-front-line-fighting-continues-in-four-sectors.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/de/usa-und-iran-säbelrasseln-im-atomstreit/a-76106219?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxPSGZtcGVJc3QwQS1xVW4wUHNCM2FYVzZLWTZ2Zk90elNHSVBYdXVuVGxMN0lOQTJWa2Fzc0tueFlSSHFlaFp3RjUtekFGUkpWLVlWNTZjTVpESlpRM3lOWFFTb0hxZExGOHhqVm9xY0NDQ0dkODFSVnUtV2hLbW5FbNIBhgFBVV95cUxQbFpwMmxVMk1TT3RJU3ZlYlRqd1g2cTVoT3p1YlVSczZ1aXVmaGZsY3NZNzN0M3FCbl9oNDFVa1kxTDlfOWk5X2pqUTZFbXcxclo5dVpWbGgtNHluR0ZxeUVwZ3V1NWstQ2lPY0JjRHNnb09mRFh1Vm1BYndDck9HYnZ4ZG1DUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1038942/trump-jajaki-skema-tarif-baru-usai-putusan-mahkamah-agung-as
- [18] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/04ff54e9ab07efbd.html
- [19] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/01180e362b158f46.html
- [20] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/d83e4d3bb21cdefc.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/632957-trump-iran-bad-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4094965-ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-logistics-command-posts-atacms-missiles-hit-targets.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576184.shtml
- [24] https://news.sky.com/story/european-leaders-came-together-in-solidarity-on-ukraine-war-fourth-anniversary-but-peace-seems-a-long-way-off-13511729
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576177.shtml
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095209-nordic-baltic-countries-to-provide-eur-125b-in-defense-support-to-ukraine-zelensky.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/russia-has-not-won-as-ukraine-war-enters-fifth-year-zelenskyy-says?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/tech-asia/china-aims-for-5-fold-increase-in-advanced-chip-output-to-meet-ai-demand
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/24/what-to-expect-from-trumps-state-of-the-union-address-2?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/02/23/42411
2026-02-24
2026-02-24
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续使用行政权力实施关税，国会反应是关键。
- 美联储或关注通胀和汇率波动，利率政策受地缘风险影响。
- 欧盟需应对匈牙利等成员国的阻挠，推动对乌援助和制裁。
- 各国可能寻求外交途径缓解贸易和地缘紧张，但进展缓慢。
- 美国对伊朗军事选项仍在考虑中，谈判结果将决定冲突方向。
关联路径
关税威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 股市下跌和避险资产上涨
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀担忧
欧盟内部分歧 / 乌克兰援助延迟 / 欧元承压和能源紧张
AI技术恐慌 / 科技股抛售 / 市场情绪恶化
来源
ABC News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://abcnews.com/Business/stocks-tick-lower-after-trump-ratchets-tariffs/story?id=130407007
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260223-l-ue-suspend-la-mise-en-oeuvre-de-son-accord-commercial-avec-les-etats-unis
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260223-eu-hits-pause-on-trade-deal-with-us-trump-warns-countries-not-to-play-games-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224085849AAo
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224090135XIg
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084544ukS
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084052pwz
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-secretary-initiated-january-s-yen-dollar-rate-check-sources
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224073233Pgh
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260223-trump-menace-une-nouvelle-escalade
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-he-ll-raise-tariffs-to-15-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260223-why-the-threat-of-bombing-campaign-trump-s-iran-gambit
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224065241EuW
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260224/84374dde8fbd4226aa8c5a424796e21a/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224062855mu7
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/2/23/are-the-us-and-iran-moving-closer-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/23/trumps-new-tariff-threats-trigger-economic-uncertainty-trade-deals-stall?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/632935-hungary-ukraine-loan-veto/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.dw.com/de/zeitenwende-an-der-front-vier-jahre-krieg-in-der-ukraine/a-76058071?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/eu-sanctions-russian-officials-as-hungary-blocks-funds-to-ukraine?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224024633GH2
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rv212wwyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-unimaginable-force-iran-attacks-180831400.html
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/iran-banks-big-on-murky-oil-trustees-as-war-with-us-on-the-horizon?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260223-iran-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-sous-la-menace-d-une-frappe-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-hungary-blocks-eu-ukraine-loan-russia-sanctions-on-eve-of-war-anniversary
- [27] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5433530/ancam-kenakan-tarif-lebih-tinggi-trump-sebut-tak-perlu-restu-kongres
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-us-trade-deals-thrown-into-doubt-after-trump-s-new-tariffs
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-ukraine-europe-on-the-front-line
- [30] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-nervous-times-in-tehran-ahead-of-crunch-us-talks-and-strike-threat
2026-02-23
2026-02-23
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策：短期内，特朗普政府将依赖《贸易法》301条、《贸易扩展法》232条等工具维持高压关税态势，法律挑战将持续。
- 韩国应对：加速推进《对美投资特别法》立法（目标下月9日），并通过民官联合会议寻求出口多元化和竞争力强化，被动应对色彩浓厚。
- 欧盟立场：坚持“协议就是协议”（DW），但面对美国单边行动，除外交反对外缺乏有效制衡手段。
- 货币政策环境：全球增长风险与地缘性通胀风险（油价）并存，主要央行政策路径复杂性增加，可能推迟宽松周期。
关联路径
美国关税提高至15% / 全球贸易成本激增 & 供应链扰动 / 企业利润下调 & 经济增长预期恶化 / 全球股市（尤其出口国）& 周期类资产下跌。
美伊 / 俄乌地缘风险升级 / 石油供应中断风险溢价上升 & 避险情绪高涨 / 油价 & 黄金 & 美元同步上涨 / 风险资产（股票、公司债）遭抛售。
美国301条款调查启动 / 特定国家（如中国、巴西）及行业（如半导体、汽车）面临精准打击风险 / 相关国家货币、股市及行业ETF波动加剧。
欧盟对俄制裁内部分歧（匈牙利阻挠） / 削弱对乌支持效力 & 暴露欧盟政治裂痕 / 欧元汇率承压 & 欧洲资产风险溢价上升。
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times
2026-02-22
2026-02-22
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策转向强硬，关注后续行政命令及国会反应，可能使用其他法律工具维持关税。
- 欧洲需协调对俄乌冲突的能源和安全政策，应对内部成员国分歧。
- 中东外交努力聚焦美伊谈判，但军事选项风险上升，可能影响核协议进程。
- 韩国等贸易依赖型国家将加强政策应对，评估产业影响并寻求多边协调。
关联路径
全球关税上调 / 贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中东紧张加剧 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
政策不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流向安全资产
来源
Yonhap News TV / Xinhua World / China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Sky News / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top)
2026-02-21
2026-02-21
进展要点
- 美联储面临通胀超预期压力，鹰派预期可能升温，影响利率路径。
- 特朗普贸易政策反复，基于《1974年贸易法》的新关税实施细节待澄清。
- 美国最高法院裁决限制总统紧急权力，但特朗普寻求替代法律途径。
- 欧盟对俄制裁和能源政策分歧持续，可能影响内部团结和能源安全。
- 伊朗核协议谈判进入关键期，外交进展或军事行动将决定中东局势。
关联路径
特朗普新全球关税 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长担忧 / 避险资产上涨
美伊军事紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应风险 / 油价和黄金上涨
通胀超预期 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 股市承压
欧盟对乌援助受阻 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
Nikkei Asia / RT News / ABC News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business)
2026-02-20
2026-02-20
进展要点
- 美联储政策受白宫干预，信誉受损可能影响未来利率路径。
- 美国贸易逆差创新高，关税政策效果有限，引发市场对贸易战担忧。
- 制裁延长对俄施压，但可能加剧地缘紧张，影响全球供应链。
- 中东和平委员会承诺加沙重建资金，但军事行动持续增加政策矛盾。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 风险资产承压
俄乌会谈进展 / 地缘风险降低 / 风险资产反弹 / 避险需求下降
美联储政策不确定性 / 美元走弱 / 黄金和外汇市场波动
贸易逆差扩大 / 关税政策失效担忧 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
来源
Xinhua World / ABC News / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / UN News / Yahoo News - World / Sky News
2026-02-19
2026-02-19
进展要点
- 美联储政策路径将密切关注地缘冲突引发的能源通胀压力。
- 欧洲央行面临能源供应中断与通胀反弹的双重压力，货币政策可能被迫维持更长时间的限制性。
- 美国或加大对伊朗的制裁压力，并可能强化对中东盟友的安全承诺。
- 欧盟可能被迫加速能源来源多样化，并协调成员国应对能源供应冲击。
- 美国对华核指控（据RT新闻报道）可能加剧双方战略不信任，影响双边关系氛围。
- 英国新政府延续并强化对乌军事援助及欧洲防务领导角色（据RT新闻报道）。
关联路径
中东 / 俄乌冲突升级 / 石油 / 天然气供应风险 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策预期转鹰 / 利率敏感型资产（成长股、债券）承压
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪 / 资金流向黄金、美元、美债 / 风险资产（新兴市场货币、欧股）承压
能源危机风险（欧洲） / EUR区增长与通胀前景恶化 / EUR贬值 / 美元被动走强
美联储政策信号（纪要） / 全球流动性预期调整 / 风险资产估值重估
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / RT News / Fed / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Xinhua Finance
2026-02-18
2026-02-18
进展要点
- 美国可能对伊朗实施新制裁或军事施压
- 欧洲或加强制裁俄罗斯，支持乌克兰防御
- 中国可能驳斥美国指控并推动外交回应
- 英国务实对华政策可能影响欧美对华协调
- 国际原子能机构可能在美伊谈判中发挥技术作用
关联路径
美伊谈判紧张 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策调整
俄乌战事升级 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市下跌
美中紧张关系 / 全球贸易风险 / 避险情绪上升 / 资产波动加剧
2026-02-15
2026-02-15
进展要点
- 货币政策：地缘政治风险成为央行（如ECB）决策的关键变量，可能延缓降息周期或加剧政策分化。
- 美国外交与军事政策：特朗普政府在中东呈现‘以战迫和’态势，军事选项优先级明显提升。
- 欧洲防务与产业政策：战略自主将从口号加速转向具体预算与项目（如联合防务工业）。
- 制裁与出口管制：美国将持续高强度执法，重点针对规避对俄制裁及对华技术封锁的行为。
- 财政政策：冲突相关国家（如乌克兰、欧洲前线国家）及大国（如美国）的国防开支压力增大。
- 能源政策：欧洲将加速能源来源多元化以降低地缘风险，但对传统能源的短期依赖可能回升。
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 原油供应预期收紧 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期重估 / 央行政策更谨慎 / 风险资产重定价
美欧战略分歧 / 全球政策碎片化 / 贸易与投资不确定性上升 / 增长预期下调 / 企业盈利承压 / 股市估值压缩
俄乌冲突持续 / 升级 / 欧洲能源安全担忧 + 国防开支大增 / 欧元区滞胀压力 / 欧央行政策困境 / EUR疲软 & 欧洲股市相对弱势
核军控失效 + 多地冲突 / 系统性风险溢价永久性上升 / 长期避险资产（黄金、部分国债）配置价值重估 / 风险资产长期估值中枢下移
2026-02-14
2026-02-14
进展要点
- 美联储可能因通胀降温而考虑降息，支撑风险资产
- 中国社会融资规模创新高，显示宽松货币政策持续，支持经济增长
- 欧洲防务开支增加，可能推高财政赤字，影响欧元区经济
- 美国气候政策变化可能带来法规不确定性，影响能源市场
- 制裁政策（如对伊朗、古巴）持续，加剧贸易和供应风险
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力
美国CPI降温 / 美联储降息预期 / 股市上涨 / 美元走弱
俄乌冲突 / 黑海航运风险 / 全球粮食和能源供应波动
欧洲政治紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
2026-02-13
2026-02-13
进展要点
- 美联储货币政策面临不确定性，需观察通胀数据和金融稳定性以决定利率路径。
- 美国贸易政策持续施压，如对日本汽车关税导致利润损失，可能引发报复措施。
- 欧洲寻求自主防卫，减少对美依赖，政策改革和防务合作将加速。
- 气候法规放松可能短期提振能源行业，但长期加剧环境风险和监管不确定性。
- 制裁与出口控制收紧，如美国对华半导体管制，影响全球供应链和科技股。
关联路径
俄乌地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
美国金融危机信号 / 安全港需求变化 / 贵金属价格暴跌
AI担忧加剧 / 科技股抛售 / 全球股市避险情绪
2026-02-12
2026-02-12
进展要点
- 美联储可能在强就业数据后维持或收紧政策。
- 欧盟推进资本市场改革和防务合作。
- 美国国会预算办公室预测赤字债务恶化。
- 潜在美印尼关税协议影响区域贸易流动。
- 美国以中国影响力为由制裁太平洋岛国官员。
关联路径
强劲美国就业 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元↑、利率↑
伊朗紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 油价↑、黄金↑
俄乌升级 / 能源供应风险 / 大宗商品↑
欧盟改革 / 增长乐观 / 欧元↑、股市↑
2026-02-11
2026-02-11
进展要点
- 美联储政策受地缘风险影响，避险情绪可能延迟加息
- 中国央行维持适度宽松，定向支持科技、绿色等领域
- 日本央行或面临美国加息压力（三月美日峰会前）
- 欧盟财政一体化受阻（德国否决欧元债券）
- 特朗普政府持续运用关税与制裁作为外交工具
- 欧洲战略自主性推进，但内部分歧明显
关联路径
美伊军事升级 / 中东石油供应中断 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升
俄乌冲突升级 / 欧洲能源危机深化 / 工业活动放缓 / 欧元区衰退风险
美国关税政策不确定性 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长预期下调 / 风险资产抛售
台海紧张 / 科技供应链中断风险 / 半导体板块波动 / 全球风险情绪恶化
2026-02-10
2026-02-10
进展要点
- 欧洲央行保持中性政策立场，关注通胀和增长平衡
- 美国可能对华加征关税，施压贸易伙伴削减俄能源进口
- 中国深化经济体制改革，推动高质量发展和外资流入
- 日本央行低调减持ETF，可能推动日元升值
- 伊朗制裁解除前景取决于核谈判进展，影响全球石油供应
- 西方对乌克兰防空援助加强，但交付时间不确定
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突持续 / 能源供应中断 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元走强
中美贸易摩擦 / 关税威胁 / 风险资产抛售 / 日元和瑞郎升值
中国减持美债 / 美债收益率上升 / 美元贬值 / 新兴市场货币压力
2026-02-09
2026-02-09
进展要点
- 日本可能加速修宪和防卫政策调整，推动'强日本'议程
- 美国对伊朗保持强硬制裁，但开放谈判窗口，政策取决于外交进展
- 白宫重申支持强势美元，但市场反应有限，需观察美联储动向
- 特朗普政府加强美日联盟，可能增加对日武器销售和区域军事合作
关联路径
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金、美元需求增加
中东冲突 / 石油供应担忧 / 油价波动并影响通胀预期
日本政策变化 / 亚洲地区风险 / 资产价格调整和汇率波动
谈判僵局 / 不确定性升高 / 全球资本流向避险资产
2026-02-08
2026-02-08
进展要点
- EU likely to implement 20th sanctions package on Russia, focusing on energy and banking sectors.
- US maintaining 'maximum pressure' on Iran with sanctions and tariffs, while engaging in diplomatic talks.
- UK tilting towards rate cuts as inflation expectations fall, influencing European monetary policy.
- India-US trade deal execution to proceed, reducing tariffs and boosting bilateral trade, setting a precedent for US trade strategy.
- Potential for further sanctions on Russia and Iran, with EU and US coordinating on export controls.
关联路径
EU sanctions on Russia / Russian oil supply constraints / Global oil price increase / Inflationary pressures / Central bank policy responses
Middle East tensions / Iran threats and US actions / Oil market volatility / Risk-off sentiment / Safe-haven asset flows
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy infrastructure damage / European gas supply risks / Economic growth concerns / Equity market sell-offs
US-India trade deal / Tariff reductions / Improved trade sentiment / Regional equity gains (e.g., Indian markets) / Broader EM optimism
2026-02-07
2026-02-07
进展要点
- 美联储政策：关注鹰派主席提名进展和利率路径，市场波动可能持续。
- 欧洲央行：维持利率稳定，政策谨慎，未来取决于通胀数据。
- 中国财政刺激：国务院研究促进有效投资，旨在稳定经济增长。
- 美国制裁政策：对伊朗和俄罗斯的制裁持续，可能升级，影响全球贸易和能源。
- 中国经济增长：政策支持稳健，对全球贡献约30%，但需监控投资效果。
关联路径
美股反弹 / 全球风险情绪改善 / 风险资产上涨，美元波动
美伊制裁 / 中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨，通胀预期升
俄乌冲突 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强， equities受压
中美紧张 / 安全港需求 / USD / Gold up，贸易流调整
2026-02-06
2026-02-06
进展要点
- 美联储政策不确定性高，鹰派信号与弱就业数据矛盾
- 欧洲央行维持利率不变，政策稳定，但全球经济前景不确定
- 美国财政部长未排除起诉美联储的可能性，威胁政策独立性
- 特朗普关税政策影响全球贸易，需监控后续行动
关联路径
美俄军控失效 / 地缘紧张升级 / 避险资产需求上升
美联储鹰派信号 / 美元走强 / 金银价格下跌
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期变化
股市抛售 / 避险情绪升温 / 美元和黄金需求
2026-02-05
2026-02-05
进展要点
- 欧洲央行可能维持鸽派立场，因通胀低于目标，支持宽松货币政策。
- 美国继续通过外交和制裁施压伊朗和中国，贸易和能源政策偏向保护主义。
- 欧盟财政整合推进，对乌贷款显示共同债务工具使用，可能影响欧元区债券市场。
- 某国央行加息至10.25%（国家未指明），反映新兴市场通胀压力或资本流动管理。
- 关注美联储对地缘风险和油价上涨的反应，可能调整利率预期。
关联路径
地缘冲突升级 / 能源供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
外交谈判进展 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹和避险资产回调
央行鸽派信号 / 货币贬值 / 出口竞争力和资本流动变化
制裁和脱钩政策 / 供应链重组 / 商品价格波动和贸易摩擦
2026-02-04
2026-02-04
进展要点
- 美国政府支出法案通过，但国土安全部资金仅延长两周，移民政策争议待解。
- 美联储政策受地缘风险影响，可能偏向鸽派以应对避险情绪。
- 中国推进人民币国际化，长期可能挑战美元主导地位。
- 欧盟尝试与俄罗斯重启对话，但内部分歧和乌克兰局势复杂化。
关联路径
中东地缘紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产需求
俄乌冲突加剧 / 欧洲能源危机风险 / 黄金和美元走强
美国政府停摆结束 / 财政不确定性降低 / 风险资产短期支撑
贸易协议调整 / 全球供应链重塑 / 商品价格和汇率波动
2026-02-03
2026-02-03
进展要点
- 美联储在沃什领导下可能转向更鹰派立场，加快加息步伐。
- 美国贸易政策重心向印度偏移，但对中国保持压力。
- 欧盟-印度FTA推动区域经济整合，提振增长预期。
- OPEC+维持减产，支撑油价但面临需求侧压力。
- 美国政府财政僵局可能短期解决，但长期预算争议持续。
关联路径
美联储鹰派预期 / 全球风险规避 / 股市、大宗商品同步下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价波动与避险资产需求
美印贸易协议 / 关税降低 / 改善双边贸易与风险情绪
美伊紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应恐惧与地缘风险溢价
2026-02-02
2026-02-02
进展要点
- 美联储鹰派主席提名若确认，可能加速加息或缩表，支撑美元。
- OPEC+暂停增产政策将维持原油供应紧张，支撑油价和通胀预期。
- 特朗普政府移民政策引发国内抗议，可能影响政治稳定和市场情绪。
- 韩国房地产政策收紧可能拖累经济增长，增加韩元贬值压力。
- 印度预算案细节未充分，需监控财政赤字和改革措施。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突加剧 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求增加
美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场货币贬值和资本外流
OPEC+产量不变 / 原油供应受限 / 能源价格上涨 / 企业成本上升
2026-02-01
2026-02-01
进展要点
- 美联储新主席提名可能带来鹰派政策转向，加息预期上升。
- 美国政府停摆风险持续，影响财政政策和市场信心。
- 美国关税政策不确定性，韩国等面临上调威胁。
- 印度发布2026年预算案，强调财政纪律和债务削减。
- 英国转向中国寻求经济增长，但受美国压力影响。
关联路径
Fed chair nomination / monetary policy uncertainty / global risk repricing
Middle East tensions / oil supply risk / inflation and safe-haven demand
U.S. government shutdown / policy instability / market volatility
Russia-Ukraine conflict / geopolitical risk / gold and USD appreciation
2026-01-31
2026-01-31
进展要点
- 美联储主席提名可能导致更宽松的货币政策。
- 欧盟考虑动用紧急基金支持国防开支。
- WTO裁定美国清洁能源补贴违规，可能影响贸易关系。
- 美国政府拨款协议在最后时刻面临障碍。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力 / 央行响应
美联储政策转向 / 利率下降 / 美元走弱 / 新兴市场资金流
地缘政治风险 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元走强
贸易争端 / 供应链中断 / 全球增长担忧