信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-08-16
来源数
80
大陆
4
港澳台
0
海外
76
官媒/官方
5
非官媒
75
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
78
中文覆盖
4
英文覆盖
36
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
China News Service · 大陆 / 官方Kyiv Post · 海外 / 媒体DW German News Service · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合La Tribune · 海外 / 媒体Stern Politik · 海外 / 媒体Sud Ouest · 海外 / 媒体Kyiv Independent · 海外 / 媒体The Korea Herald · 海外 / 媒体ANTARA News Agency · 海外 / 媒体Poder360 · 海外 / 媒体SHZ Politik RSS · 海外 / 媒体
来源样本来自本期引用与配置元数据，用于追溯覆盖，不代表背书或投资建议。
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 76 个，大陆信源 4 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 36 个，中文信源 4 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: SC原油 / AU黄金 / FU燃油 / AG白银 / EC欧线集运 / PS多晶硅
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 75 / 待复核 105
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SC 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 6m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 3m · 待复核 · entry_bar_missing_backfill_required
2026-08-16
2026-08-16
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能将“吞并海峡”言论转化为更激进的海上封锁执行，增加对伊朗经济施压。
- 伊朗以海峡通行权为筹码，与阿曼达成协议，试图削弱美国封锁的合法性与实效。
- 欧盟委员会对波兰谷物禁令施压，但2027年选举政治或使华沙保持强硬。
关联路径
特朗普吞并言论 / 伊朗拒绝 / 海峡袭击增加 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
乌克兰无人机袭击 / 俄炼油厂与出口终端关闭 / 燃料供应紧张 / 油价与成品油价差扩大
俄袭黑海港口 / 乌克兰谷物出口停滞 / 全球粮价上涨 / 新兴市场食品通胀
莱茵河低水位 / 燃油物流受限 / 欧洲局部短缺 / 能源通胀压力
来源
China News Service / Kyiv Post / DW German News Service / Google News - World / La Tribune / Stern Politik / Sud Ouest / Kyiv Independent / The Korea Herald / ANTARA News Agency / Poder360 / SHZ Politik RSS / Süddeutsche Zeitung Politik / RT News / Anadolu Agency Politics / NBC News Politics / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/82390
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-to-declare-hormuz-us-territory-soon/a-78377755?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNbEFoM0Z1VnBsRUlGMUtsU3pXUWd6WUVvVW84ak5jbVpIZ25ld1VfR3RITUJ4MEx1ZTRJaGdXSDRadGVRNThPMzFlOVNsNWo4QzV2eTMzVmoxb1RDSE5QNXZkQ1d3bl9oSk85SUFxNEgxU1N6ME9UWHJ6dENMZmk1LWhacTJreTc4VlgtaGRxaFVQbFltR2UwMVN3Z1V3WUJLeHdDNy0wU0NldXRLaVA0NVY5WTZLQ1NOQjJQQWFHSjMtMk9icXc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.latribune.fr/article/entreprises-finance/energie-environnement/71485960335656/nouvelle-escalade-dans-le-detroit-dormuz-trois-petroliers-emiratis-pris-pour-cible
- [5] https://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/lage-im-ueberblick--frist-verstreicht--iran-krieg-vor-ungewisser-zukunft-38108448.html
- [6] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/moyen-orient/guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-vise-un-petrolier-emirati-dans-le-detroit-d-ormuz-une-troisieme-attaque-en-24h-30265234.php
- [7] https://kyivindependent.com/russia-shuts-down-key-black-sea-export-terminal-in-novorossiysk-after-drone-attack-reuters-reports
- [8] https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10842269
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5696671/perusahaan-negara-uea-sebut-kapalnya-diserang-saat-melintasi-selat-hormuz
- [10] https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-internacional/trump-quer-declarar-estreito-de-ormuz-como-territorio-dos-eua
- [11] https://www.shz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-will-strasse-von-hormus-zu-us-territorium-machen-51093988
- [12] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/liveblog-nahost-iran-usa-news-trump-hormus-territorium-li.3530668
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/644283-iran-trump-hormuz-fanciful-delusions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/record-low-rhine-water-levels-cause-fuel-shortages-in-eastern-france/4028396
- [15] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-rejects-delusions-trump-strait-hormuz-us-territory-rcna592666
- [16] https://orf.at/stories/3439242
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-15/10678388.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE5jZlpLZGNVVU9BX2JPcU13ZWt1SXZPLWZmaUdhR05fcWdmUmtZMHRTNFZNdUllN2g3MHU0ejRidWVqSVRtUkRwSnlmOFI0U3BPX1FGaXEyQTl1VjVhNTh4Y1BRbU5kUGhvU2JfN1lR?oc=5
- [19] https://www.latribune.fr/article/entreprises-finance/17674079667054/trump-plaisante-sur-une-annexion-du-detroit-dormuz-et-assume-le-cout-economique-de-la-guerre-contre-liran
- [20] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukraine-getreideexporte-krieg-schwarzes-meer-russland-li.3531075
- [21] https://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/russland-raeumt-engpaesse-bei-der-energieversorgung-ein-38108056.html
- [22] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/82396
2026-08-15
2026-08-15
进展要点
- 美国公开表态“低价油气优先于阻止伊朗拥核”，后续对伊朗经济惩罚措施落地方向值得跟踪（The...
- 特朗普对无人机及零部件加征关税、放开海外造船，显示安全议题继续嵌入贸易工具（ABC News）。
- 日元跌破/逼近160，日本财务省干预风险上升，关注美日财长沟通（The New York...
- 美加贸易协议截止日8月19日临近，双方均表露达成意向，但细节谈判仍有变数（Yahoo Ne...
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油轮遇袭 / 原油供应风险 / 油价 / 通胀预期上行 / 全球风险资产承压
美国零售销售↓ / 消费需求↓ / 增长担忧↑ / 降息预期升温 / 美债利率↓ / 美元偏弱
多瑙河干旱 / 核电站关停 / 欧洲电力供应↓ / 电价↑ / 工业成本与通胀压力
乌克兰袭炼油厂 / 俄柴油出口↓ / 全球燃料供应收紧 / 成品油裂解价差走高
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Google News - World / RT News / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / ABC News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-to-declare-hormuz-us-territory-soon/a-78377755?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/14/trump-says-he-will-declare-strait-of-hormuz-a-us-territory?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/pretty-soon-trump-vows-to-claim-hormuz-as-us-territory-iran-hits-back/articleshow/133251741.cms
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBWbGN2eXRreVRtbzJ4SnZxOGZzNXkzNy1fMkNuUHFlSkx1RHJpMjFYUEJUVlFpUVRyV2V5Q013cUtaaGg4Y1VrYjZMd181dzF2LXNOX3pnZFNDajNETmJfaWh2cXZpMjdnODNzcExKWGVUSzBRUkI4YUVTOHJIZHM?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/644239-romania-nuclear-shut-danube-drought/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-15/10678016.shtml
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-203543611.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/lower-oil-prices-not-irans-nuclear-programme-now-top-priority-us/article71347037.ece
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260815/8d5cb24501f94f0db6d7250acd69b3ae/c.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/business/retail-sales-july.html
- [11] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-signs-proclamations-imposing-new-drone-tariffs-orders/story?id=135629301
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxOU19BM2l2RGhNUW5aWGxpdXJRU1QwVWtzekJ1ckw2bUdzWlhBSWcxX3U3T1JVblRkYW92MEhkaS1rakhweUN6MnlYc0xVbzVQcUtwdXRBbGFPUzV5T2Q5a3lmbVNqdE0zZFgyT0J3OGt6bzlwT1dWb2dtdVBieEtuOVFQXzdlNFdzUm8tU3FrV1JQS1hEUGpscjl3Q1BRczR4RlE?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPOVNydXRhV2dnb1hSMEpVNkhwU3lMdUpaT1lHaDNiOG90MFNBdEZHeVpVMnRpbW56REpNellvZWdYMEpiM3dmNHhKVldRNWpoc1Z4VVFYdUNSeDJxbXBuNHk5Tlp4blZRUF9SX3ZiVEZvLURscnpjZ0xGbm52c3ZWV3o4UW5DSmYzWUZmSTdnOTdwWFN1SlJ6aWt4U2k0R2Ruc3I2TGx1OExpeU9STVlIV1JZRQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/14/new-aerial-video-reveals-huge-scale-of-oil-spill-off-oman?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260815/1bb4eb11488f43c19dc5d24cefcd6c9e/c.html
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/business/japan-yen-intervention.html
- [17] http://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/shipin/2026/08-14/news1065467.shtml
- [18] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260814/87794fe883b74d58b703556b7e545208/c.html
- [19] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-government-source-says-us-173525441.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/14/houthi-attack-on-port-kills-four-eroding-truce-with-yemens-government?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/strong-7-4-magnitude-earthquake-hits-indonesia/articleshow/133253276.cms
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/644263-syria-new-rulers-need-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/fda-assigns-highest-risk-class-145426771.html
2026-08-14
2026-08-14
进展要点
- 美国以国家安全为由对进口无人机及零部件征10%-100%关税。
- 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡控制权上持续对峙，短期外交突破概率低，关注美国是否强化护航或制裁伊朗（A...
- 乌克兰向俄提出黑海休战提议，美方要求乌停止袭击使用俄罗斯港口的油轮。
- 欧洲能源政策面临干旱压力：核电冷却水不足迫使罗马尼亚关停反应堆，匈牙利筑坝保核电。
关联路径
霍尔木兹 / 红海中断 / 原油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
黑海互袭 / 粮仓与港口受损 / 粮食出口受阻 / 全球粮价上涨
欧洲干旱 / 河流水位下降 / 核电停运 / 航运受限 / 能源价格上行
无人机关税 / 进口成本上升 / 供应链重构 / 相关权益与商品波动
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPRGFZQ2Vnb3RrVVF5MGpzQzlrckRvMHM2bmtQRFFEdUdra2QxdEcwMEVTQk1GUDFBS25MS2Rmb05uZkd4Znp4aElvSEtFVzNXY1dtYUNHNmpWODhUSTFVRDc1a0VMR3NTVTlmNndDRlBnVWlfOFpZSXFRY01EUDh6WGJQb2xHY0daZGIwbzI3VWpfallqckphSVpIcHl0VkdqM3VyaUJUS1B4QVM5MXJZY0Rn?oc=5
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260813-russia-ukraine-war-grain-hub-attacks-raise-fears-over-global-food-prices
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/13/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-under-its-control-rejects-trump-claims?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/tyson-foods-says-close-beef-215810122.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukraines-drones-hit-a-major-russian-oil-refinery-sparking-fire/article71342475.ece
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-14/10677342.shtml
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/romania-shuts-nuclear-plant-hungary-dams-dry-danube-river/a-78359581?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOdnRSa0s5a1NHbzFqLTczc1FydWJqXzd1Nmc4ZEJoWlRheExRdUpFMjdxS2haWDc5cHdmRUNONVEzRjhaZjUyLVNmV0NpcXROSkFwaDBpVlBkOHc1SU52OXptQ1hLRnE1NVNIRHpxUVU5MFgxRTFpYUNFMnNGQXdtbTF3a05qV3gwNEpxaEswd053TXFPbnlSZExIc01hck56MjIyV2d4QQ?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNUEN3YjlCTURHaGROMnlUTmNRUURCN2tMdG9fTFNWdGdOTUdOeUtDRVRLQ0dBYld0MUF2UFk0d1lJYzlxdTlPYldMZG1yZWxlbS1aUjJSWGxzRmVqSnF4cUtsd1NxRWlFQzFISGRFcFRnR2RxajJkYW9qbk5JTVJTNnN0Y05MWW13Ul9BTUpRV3dPUXdJb1pSTjZRcDYzRlBsVzZaekZyMA?oc=5
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/13/13-08-sv-ukraine-russia-grain-attack-ur?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260813-colombie-le-s%C3%A9isme-p%C3%A8se-sur-l-industrie-du-caf%C3%A9-et-toute-l-%C3%A9conomie
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-ukraine-offers-russia-truce-165810550.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/%C3%A9l%C3%A9ment-terre-la-quotidienne/20260813-canicules-et-s%C3%A9cheresse-records-un-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-catastrophique-en-france-et-en-europe
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-14/10677339.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxORDlpS0ZwT3UtcTZ6NldxNWFBOFlDa20wVWpsYk51d1RaQzlEcm5leGphRDdSZEdrcm5hMHZVcXNVaHJycm5IQVk3NmdqdTkyQXk0NlhSTWFFelVHMGlhLTJwZEZqZGgzd25kRHFueXpCVjhxVWJycHpBZlkwRnJySDF4Tlh0T3NZMlZlWVFlVktWblR5UmNfU05ZR0x0SW_SAaQBQVVfeXFMUEtKYTRWckg5Zk93eHBlbTE5d0hxX2pwaTY1aGJLUUtUZUlublFtelRxVzgwRTU0U1ZJeDJfdmVQYTVJN3ZydDBndjJROGV3VjE3YlFHYzUxSnU1eWhJSHlQOE44eGlheHRVVm1wZy1SZ19sdFNTQzluX2o4UzNNMzFFa3JPX2VGUEFDaHh3bEVHVDR0ekdHeGxGeDl4YmJDQllvUzY?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQaW5la0RMLV9jSklUTG9XbjRNM3lXV091dnRJakQ3a2VxRFJ4clpSMUUzakNzWHBGMmJJQS1XVE9Rc1dBTHFsVVZlSkVBTm9QUVJPejc1VnpOMmloQzZSNUt3ZGtVbHJjRkY0VllwUGNsNlNwdUhLcm5jVlptNjJQY2QtM2RmSU5DX0pybnpJc0kwOHBGLVFydHBwTEhRbzQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNSzluSW1UaDZrbzA0Vk9qY1M5enRNaThmVXhQa0FCTmFQNlZoRmdvVF9oX0prUTdCWlk2cmJFTTZocUh6ejRrSlI2LXNZVHBGUUkwcUxhSjE1LWVnX3VnSjE0eGRGcm55NWNOSHZTRlhsQW41Yi1Ldk8wQS1SVlBSV1p4bVVhc2pWTlhiOVpYRU1jLU5hVDlJdlVZTFltWnFVNEJaZThHOXdFYWRaMFV5Z1pYdTVmR2x0Wktpdk5uOA?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxNZ0Q2Sk8xMzBKamp5cHJIdlp5MHIzLWpMZWVFaVJXUFFGN0E0cTN5QnVMLTZtRE5lSC1xRjNzS1NEVkt4U09yVnJsWDNGZ0FXNFVtMXRDa2FRSjVoM2M3QTRJX29ia3FZYWxTOVpkNVlGM1JrdHhLUGdtQVRYTHdrSDNjZEU5QmtLT01YSjUtZFFwQTBVSmNSb0pqZ05tTzgzc2c?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQaVAyN1FTME4xT3BNeld6NHNVMEpaWElYUkJrVjdmZmFVMVBtX0NlZGp3cXk4UUItS1ZDaGhCVE54bkptY0tiSTJDTHF2VU5HSzB3YTRFay1KY09uM1RuNkZJSXFtbVNiNVlzTU1rWEF2TTV4LUZzazNDU2dkdTVsdENPdnFvZDJMWmcxWTdwNE5na2NzeVBwVlVwTnNrQUN5VHV3bEIwaS1vTmZXOVhGeEVnN1FyQ1VxMTQ0T2g4aw?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNejhVVVN1eFRpV1dma1ViZzBsa190clVBZFlScUtiSEtwUjhOZVF1aW03OE5FMHFDVU9vNFdxXzVMWU80TUpaQV9kZk1sY1dVbTBxRkNpNU1JLW9uUWtfQ2lqcG1fa1lTQXhxbU9mSnJZcFUzek5TZ0VhRE5WTWV6ZTU4SQ?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQNUx1NlFUQ0lkSkpES0NkeXpmYlQ3anlWLVQtSi1CSTNaTUJRVGlpM3F0RFdTX0U0c19QNGFqZlE1Y1g0Z2FjZnRCSVIzYklRYTZfcUMyWjBRbHltY0w3WUxrSXJZX3RUaGNyRUkwZmhGNnpXM21DTG5naWs0WEFvM01EcFZpaEllSFdpeGwtTHU4LV8ySWF6U25iNlduVDZ5WWVRSF930gGrAUFVX3lxTE5wd1RXTmdZalhXRHlxQXd0TXNyR1NwaGdkR0xLb3pQUmRYYlhQZnEzNXVzVDZpVm1hSENhQnVzTFhrU1daeVQtUkY3ZmNGTzlkV2E3X2VROEVRWWVKNjZhTXFTZGRyYjNOczVvT3VIanJNLTdfU3VBUy1GcDNORGp4ZVRYVXRxX2hrVVhlbzIyaHVCWUxDOENNdEtGSVFsam9JUzJSQVNSbTl2dw?
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxNMjVhTDdCNlhnVjlCS2FRX0sxd2FVTmcyTzRlOWVteXFJdGg3eG01OFBFbF95djd2UGp0NDJ2ZUZra1V5TEk2MUNnYnRDa0pHTXNfMjRGeTc0U2F3MTVuQUtuazhCdjRhSl9CVmdlYXFjeDdKR1pqbjcxek5mUHFseGZuYXc4a0kwcmxLRzdOX2dlb1ppc2tmaHU2eWk0a3hONHU1bnlBRzJiRUtHNTZz0gG0AUFVX3lxTE5Fam1yc0U4N2stUk5FaWRHbUpHN3RPSEJ1QV91aV8zUTF5cHZZY1BOMWZwUm0tZGxHM2RHVTYybm9Qck5mSWM5ME9zWjVFS3RDa2xNQ1dvWE9vSFN2ajA1OTlFd3ltRmhaYWVOUXh1SUZZUW5kNkZQclZUaUF4X3J5aUpacWNmUDZXS1BMQjMtV2JXUS1EeGJQbmM0dDEyUmRfSjd
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260813-european-drought-shrivels-crops-despite-farmers-best-efforts-to-adapt
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOZFhQZEU1ckd5MDJTaEtYLTRPYnFLRkNGcllVQklSUm8yNFUwNnlRdnM4MHRuMDAxaEIzSlE4V1c5SmVfOHdKem9LRWtuTFlZaGtKbDdoYW9vbHZnaFJEZWUxc3hGb1Rjb2RtR2ZreEEwT1JEOV9wbDR1TDJqbk14ZF8yNEp3emYxWnAw0gGQAUFVX3lxTE9oRGdQLXdxcUtSNDVMN3RQclJTNzVuM1BLbC1MOHZFU014eXZPV2YzeWdELUxYTnRzaHVWQkZYb1dVRHd3LVRJcF9WakFOeEdMYkZkWWlOUS1oQWhiV3NEZ3JUZ1dXLXNYM1gxbnNmTE9KVjJGYUdzckpyR0ZPUk9NeHIya0duaDFoLWpESWlSNQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxOa1I3UzM3M1VROS00bkZEN2ZJZnNJZUF0bnIwOHVxR3JIcm5FOC1CWjBhaWNCZzAwMmhLZm1UNEdZRnppTkZQc0JEb2o1NVlpSG8xbk1kaF9YYjFwMDZHMUpyX3A5UmpraFJsTVZENUNqVktmWGRCemdpTzFyWGNaWGNwMFlSdUJTU1FIazkzVE5IeW1fbnc?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9co-tech/20260813-etats-unis-donald-trump-impose-droits-de-douane-100-drones-importes-chine
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPalBfeTJzZlQ3aHNBYkFDbUNfa0xGakpTTkNvRUJDX3A2Tm52RV93Tno2Q2hTNVhEcmt6RU1OeGZQaU1Qa1Q5ZzJuNmtKTTlPdURtSnVMSF95U0NQUzdDRk9FMnBCeHNOTmJyZnJaZnZBZjdNb2Q1Q0toWXFLdHh6NHZrNzV0NWpYSEE5TXB3?oc=5
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQTkE5WkJLcGhoa3JlcElXSzk1UU8waGYzRWpYV2tOaW1zSEVtWGplQi1qNkRKTWE2RmZvUzRXdTZQSms1dHlBV3pQTzhoTkt1SG1OTHlLYVRISlN1eElPR1Bxck5zZXY2aWw0eDZRNFA3WHZUamJNRVVoMW0ycS1oUDFZWUdpZV9PU1VqR2x4TjVPTVliOXc?oc=5
2026-08-13
2026-08-13
进展要点
- 美联储：7月CPI支持9月按兵不动，但核心通胀2.5%与能源反弹风险令加息选项未被移除。
- 美伊：特朗普拒绝伊朗解除制裁要求，短期无对话信号；若油价冲破关键阈值。
- 美国对俄乌黑海航运：万斯已直接要求泽连斯基停止袭击油轮与CPC码头，基辅同意暂停部分行动。
- 美国对华供应链：对华军用钨禁令即将落地，卢旺达成为替代供应方。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 原油供应中断风险 / 油价↑ / 通胀预期↑ / 美联储加息预期↑ / 利率与美元走高
黑海港口互袭 / 粮食出口受阻 / 粮价↑ / 食品通胀↑ / 新兴市场社会风险↑
红海 / 阿曼湾袭船 / 航运保费上涨 / 全球供应链成本↑ / 贸易条件恶化
美国CPI回落 / 加息预期降温 / 美元走弱+黄金上涨（与地缘风险传导形成对冲）
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / RT News / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-13/10676691.shtml
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9yMkhxMGxURF9FNDF6a1QtU1hsU01vdWN5bjBZYTFZd1k1SlU4Y2pqdkRMSGtxVF81Nm1naW01WnNlUWJ1WUJfbWgzVnRBZzdoQmN1V3RnNzdsZw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/no-oil-no-salary-iraqi-state-employees-are-feeling-the-crunch-of-the-hormuz-blockade/a-78341409?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y49xp2wrno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260812/a398c1058803487882135d0004138d1d/c.html
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/business/iran-war-hormuz-oil.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/12/as-strait-of-hormuz-transit-drops-trump-again-says-us-has-control?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/july-us-cpi-eases-to-34-keeping-fed-september-rate-decision-in-focus/article71338230.ece
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-will-keep-it-trump-says-us-has-total-control-over-hormuz-iran-has-no-money/articleshow/133190778.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/644171-vance-dresses-down-zelensky-black-sea-drones/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/drones-hit-residential-buildings-russias-015011561.html
- [12] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260812-rwanda-la-mine-de-nyakabingo-nouvel-atout-strat%C3%A9gique-pour-les-%C3%A9tats-unis
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNQ2RUVjFBUmhnNTNCNjZSdEpzMmZ1NndMU20zX3IyRUdWUExvSmt5WUxFdnNKQzR5MGktWGJIQXN6YVJSZjhkcjgtRU1VSGZxX29TZzd6M2huelREQ0hYNDdnbng1aEdMNjBuajgyelNHT3hCcU1QY2JtbWtGbF9oUG14OA?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQbS1PZ202OFpxcUktZG9xalEwRG56WGQwZ0JUODVjbEFjRU0xaHhoaDMwUkYxS05OUzlFN01hdnc4R0xGMUtoMkVKTUk0OHF6S3AyRFRkWXREOGMzNlFVZl9Calh1SlJBNDdLRUpRWWg1VDZJdS1zdGhsaUtjU0FOTk0zTE82X2JhcGRkZGFUQktXYm1tM0E?oc=5
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260812/5898e78454db436cb71f29dc7f9fdcd8/c.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/12/drone-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure-deepen-libyas-energy-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260812/0d57118658cb43fca4b4adefee9976a5/c.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/business/economy/cpi-report-july-inflation-data.html
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-12/10676687.shtml
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/business/economy/inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates.html
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-pounds-black-sea-fleet-161558939.html
2026-08-12
2026-08-12
进展要点
- 美国拟对购买俄油国家征收100%关税，可能引发贸易伙伴反制
- 特朗普与莫迪将就俄制裁问题磋商，印度或寻求豁免
- 伊朗坚持要求美国赔偿战争损失，谈判僵局难破
- 美国导弹库存告急，可能推动国防预算增加
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 原油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨与避险情绪
美国对俄油买家关税 / 印度进口转向 / 原油供应扰动与避险情绪
红海袭击 / 航运中断 / 油价与运费上涨
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 供应中断 / 油价上涨
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Times of India / The New York Times / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-11/10676076.shtml
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPVzI4ZllHeXZmVDVJVE40M0w5NkYtdkFzM0RyYlZvY1pXbEJoc1d4RHNvVWxTem1kMEhGNUxmc0tZZmZ2ZkpZamtDNkd6bjRTVXhCVEF6dGhOSXltR0RQc3RPc0RFUzctZ00xRjAzX0hwNy1oYlU0a0dMYU9iUjdqYXZ4ZWM5YXhBMUhEREduYVo2QkVsT2ktQ19NaFNpUF85TmhFcnF1REktbFZfRklXb0EtbzZsLUZ1Vk53TFRR?oc=5
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-indias-russian-oil-imports-hit-48-as-us-readies-100-tariffs/article71332467.ece
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/11/pakistan-interior-minister-in-tehran-amid-talks-to-reopen-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260811-libye-un-important-r%C3%A9servoir-d-essence-en-feu-apr%C3%A8s-une-attaque-de-drone
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260812/2f084e945d5a4ea9a540402986adab7b/c.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/im-their-banker-trump-says-us-controls-irans-frozen-assets-as-he-threatens-economic-or-military-action/articleshow/133160695.cms
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/11/podcasts/the-daily/iran-us-missile-stockpile-trump.html
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-12/10676077.shtml
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNdERpMS03MFlhOC01dG5kcnZmY3d1UmxFczh1ODVsMEROLWpiS0gzTExXTVN0YnhKOW9ubHFla2ZVWXp5UzY1Sm1oTDRIU3FJbGsyU041TlFjbjNHdlZCd3oxYzlUX1dacjNCOVNIS2VOMmVHMjZxTkFxRDdWQTJYUkprcy1VUm5KM0dmT1VjVHBMcTl0MXZMRVNocDVhSGR3Z3ZsLXoyTzZvN0FEQW1meXFsVHpVV0FPUm50d2RMZmRxY3UwR0lvOQ?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNU0ozalQtRWtyUl9RYWZINnRiZVBVVV9hNEh5RjVtQUFRSm5BazRfRFRDY0VHaVZpb202U3dpR2MzSkVldmdJWDNjM1dqSF9PaXdIN1NySmxmU3ZuZV9CX1oyV0F6QnB5cUljclFDTnpJbGVsenhBTnNlRmt1bGlDZjh1UEVSb3dRWVR3Z2x5Y3NmYXhhV3lXd2h3bkVKZw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/trump-modi-will-resolve-russia-sanctions-us-official/article71333910.ece
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/11/us-military-fires-on-cargo-vessel-it-said-sought-to-break-iran-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260811-three-killed-in-suspected-houthi-attack-on-egyptian-ship-in-the-red-sea
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260811-une-attaque-des-houthis-sur-un-navire-en-mer-rouge-fait-plusieurs-morts
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-12/10676078.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNdERpMS03MFlhOC01dG5kcnZmY3d1UmxFczh1ODVsMEROLWpiS0gzTExXTVN0YnhKOW9ubHFla2ZVWXp5UzY1Sm1oTDRIU3FJbGsyU041TlFjbjNHdlZCd3oxYzlUX1dacjNCOVNIS2VOMmVHMjZxTkFxRDdWQTJYUkprcy1VUm5KM0dmT1VjVHBMcTl0MXZMRVNocDVhSGR3Z3ZsLXoyTzZvN0FEQW1meXFsVHpVV0FPUm50d2RMZmRxY3UwR0lvOdIBzgFBVV95cUxNaGlZV3Q4SnlDR2lQdk1oODh0M3hXbGIyRXJxdGs2eVdONkNpUVQyRmJkT1BBQ1A0LVhaUkJsUlN2R1NDN0sydnNlQ211QlRsQlV5OUZzSlBSQ1lxZFNZWENjNk1sQi1WWmx5RkFKNFZvOHp2czdsdHM1R2tscEdpMFRWaWFveV9KclN
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE13NWtvZmNhOFJidDBEeGhoOUhxOUlOcTNYSWxLQnpQemtOVlhBc0pLRGhFMlJfX1JwMWJQNDBGRkFzTDJNQWwzVmtwMEN5djFfNDB2b053RS1zWXlwaGlKeVhrNnNwazM3WjVSYTVB?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1qV0V6Z08tZ1RuOVlBTzZXRWQ5UzZqcFBOZlVNZnB6VE9KN2VGT29aQzhxYnh0aE9SWWNSN0szaWVZQklMeXY1a29IaklsY3dhQU5Wa1JZblRKQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxORXhISUZDNXVZTlFMeWpOeGVEUDVsYWZKYkFQV2tmaXVSSW45SW5RZmtyeGQtaVIxMlVGdVZVNm5vemI5Rm9yMS1xMFc4Q0kzcTN4UThPTnF1anVDd1FSdWlIdEY2SWM2bkRiZ0VQQVQxOUJ4dXl2U2pIZFZOWVJyQ0NrelJvSlJsUWlpOHhxeFBSa0V6Y1BYb3dvaXQ?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9gFBVV95cUxQdGdoeXFJalgxUmp3c2MtMDRadnJYTmJkUnM0NG1IZmhxQkpwaWhnM0t3VE5aZnAyZV8zZ3Q1cjc3bTVsR2hLYnJaTUdTR052YWNGRm1hOHE4a3kzcjFETFpMRDd6NXFOTlY2NTlWZ1NqdXJSSkR3SVFzQ3RMLU9wWklOelZTekItNU1UTHM3M1hGdzUxM1VLOTRqN1BjVUQ5V1N6ck1Bb25jbktnLVpDSDRmR2t1X0hUNEZrb1FJOHA2Z3J1MWVMeWJUOGNyQ0luV05UUmNKUzQtMHJibWh3OE1pTGt6ZWd0THlQc291eHBxdmd4ZWfSAfsBQVVfeXFMUHQ2M0dabmNGdm8zdk9GbXNKLVFsdG9Ya1lrUG1DdUNEU0Q0dWRLZldJNHZzUVI1VTNIXzVvUzRoMWUtYTNRbTg0cTBHWjBMZnQwamYwbGFEOGFKcEY
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNSmsyTjBsWW1pUjQyVzZGZ1cxYlkxR09TdkZxckh1MV9EbzJIUWpfQ1hUUENCenZKdU1LYnRXekZ1eXNCYzBOX0h2ZC0wYlE5TU1mQWMzeS02LVctUzBFQV8ydFJMcXV1RjZncGJQb2xsdlZYakVVWnIwWm80bWl6WEMxd2JIdFV4QkZTdUlEZ29sVWRBWmlqWmdRMmI0clZCOE9ZVDVn?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOSURtU0FxazNSZWRITkpUbGp3SDRFemExTERkeHk0c3B6c0hoT3Vaa2lJNGxqZ3pjdmIxX1k0Y0M2cWlxOTRlSGE1WF9WT1V0eUdWd1poSEZObm1kdHpyS24xVU9jNUdubXpTQUpjOURBTERkYTFUNjF0aFAwYXZ0cTN0bVZadW5ub0JBWElFa1lMNlpvZWFYQ1lB?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxOeVotMUdKMG1abkZ1TVBVLXZnck0tRnFMenNzM3pYblBwR0cyd1A2M0FQMnhkWWhPM3RBcjRHcDU1MjdwdDkxRTMzN2ZISVF5VDJyRXhjM28wZkdsdmF3N0w0SGU5cVA4UVkyTUxsS3R1bkFXMGJiaExtb0MzY1IzX0Zkbm5ZaXdxWlYyX1N5TnpaT3BNVERHaVFERlZUNHRBOEota204WlV4UQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNaUk4OEtuQkJoalZXZFBfS0RPVHhicHktZkwwN3VoOTZPV0JUR0wxakVueUpUU1g5V21HcERUOTg3ekxGSjNhQjFwZnY0aU5uRWsySDVBRkpLUmNHZm9jNWd2NFJxZU1rc3JsT2k2X3ZrcFlDaXpXQ0tveXJMSWVNWU90Znlla1V6YVc0bndkWWlMMEk4MmpjbUdBTFdTTS0zenFQY1VMT3I4RVpCUzNCWkQ3WlNQYnpmd1p4VExobWdXSlU?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260811-avec-la-canicule-la-france-produit-moins-d-%C3%A9lectricit%C3%A9-et-en-consomme-davantage
2026-08-11
2026-08-11
进展要点
- 美国可能加大对伊朗经济施压，而非军事行动。
- 伊朗要求美国解除制裁并赔偿，作为重开海峡条件。
- 美国战略石油储备处于低位，补库政策或受关注。
- 欧盟可能关注莱茵河低水位对能源运输的影响。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 原油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
SPR降至历史低位 / 供应缓冲减弱 / 油价上行风险
无人机袭击 / 石油设施受损 / 供应中断担忧 / 油价上涨
红海袭击 / 航运中断 / 供应链扰动 / 大宗商品价格波动
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / Deutsche Welle News / Yahoo News - World / Deutsche Welle German News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260811/07f7c143afd946ec8315c5d1c065b7fb/c.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE5xcnRIaENDM0VobHdzWGIteUx1Y1pwYU42VUlVdzhMUDRvMGV3MWZ2cEppX0NnV29nSE5ZWTFWS3dGd0ZNYjByWldRM3VERU10ZFBaUnY5X2VmTDJ6ekgxNUV4RUJ2U3ZYemZhS0NB?oc=5
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/644068-iran-us-hormuz-diplomacy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/10/oil-prices-stocks-surge-as-hormuz-closure-drags-on?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-iran-wants-us-concessions-before-opening-hormuz/live-78305309?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-11/10675462.shtml
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260810-iran-backed-houthis-strike-red-sea-port-of-mocha-threatening-shipping-routes
- [8] https://www.dw.com/de/straße-von-hormus-iran-stellt-harte-forderungen-vor-öffnung/a-78293294?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukrainian-drone-attack-russian-city-071432874.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/de/hitzerekord-in-westeuropa-niedrigwasser-bedroht-den-rhein/a-78300214?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOTjVPYzNKci1mcFBISlptNTlUNnFqMjZ3UjZGUWxkQkdWMVRYTnV1eElzRGJMRTNTTW9IVUNoX3Z5Q08xSFFHbnVvNTk5MUxuN1JXcVVtNEt4V0lTU2MtczhuQW4xd2p3QmMwV3g4cC1FS1NmQUhGeWFlN3NlNXRNSmo4Q2VjRHB3SnkwNHBydDh0TjZ5V2Ew?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxNbTl0TXZOenBQNzZtOHJ0Yk5hTkN0Sk1PeVlBUEFiMWxpUGJYaVpTM2liNFJ3bVhuUVJobXRoZ1NWc2dZVnlGUXpudjJ2RmRBQzRmZjludFFEVnMwOHBONXRrYnpLaTQ3bUM0SnVfVjF4NGtFeHNXbFJRZXNYY1JYRk8tY0NoZGJJbVhtTW1CZ1ZNX3RiX2hHOQ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260811/80b78f0990434b6dbb3f2f7b7ce67ca7/c.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/8/10/iran-changed-the-rules-in-hormuz-the-gulf-is-changing-the-rules-for-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260810-ukraine-drone-strike-on-russian-oil-refining-city-kills-12-people
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/10/trump-to-demand-compensation-for-tehrans?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.dw.com/de/dürre-in-westeuropa-hitzewelle-bedroht-die-schifffahrt/a-78300214?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/644086-trump-oil-greenland-annexation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPOU9pdEZ4SjZld3FEaWdEaUNVZnZoV083SWl1bndMQzVmOHZUX0ttRzhpLVIyM1RNQ3VuNlFnLUVWeUhlbjZfd3FWWEJUT0JORG5WZjVUXzZ6Y1VBNlBoOHNpMXpubHhmd0lHWUY3d1JXZ2F4QUREdk8tSjNGRU9oekkwQWNvbHdXUkhJY1VRZzRZNm5lOElrY3d6b3ZReGJRbWZneElnYkRDY2xJMXVDM3lGdjU0S01MbWhj?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxON0pPV0R0aC02SFNUNzZwUkNUdFNadFAwZ1hhR3BOWnJ3NkdXQmJPRFhZQmpjeUNhWnAwSlVONHBVWk9KMXBILVFMOU1ramJ5aDlCNmlzb2dOOWVXV2JlZUlmbWpacEptV1U2SnJUMHUyOVhsTEJzY0tGcU90bTZWcnFTbktzM2VjQTludnRGc3JKUnRGVjczSEtOOUhySnVKdUphcGVUN0hPcmJHdHl0MEJIeEFWZW_SAbwBQVVfeXFMUHQwSDFOdVJxQTZITGY4UTE2YVRjUnNtRl9GWEY4bmplSG1rXzRDQ1Fpb0ZfZ2I2V3UzUWFGZTNhXzdTWVNrNGNaNmRVMk1OZW9aUDdoaGdVOXFwaHFYUmlGR1NDd0VrTkNKUmZrNHpHU2hmaWNoYm9fZWdvS0s1OW1nMnlFaHFHUDVOZ3E1RTNjMDdRa1ZteDRrVEh
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5PSlBQSkZDeVFXczJmMmRVYU4zbFdIejBqeUVSa1Z2cHNMaXUtVHZ5eUVKUEZzb2RMUWpYVE1aQWV0b21BNkM0VE9WNFI2dTFsUGNQUXNfOWtNV211WkhlLUxOTm9zOW01UHJVU0o2eDM1Wm5TREVz0gF8QVVfeXFMT1FxMFFZOTZCbGpROU5BX0xLVW9kMmtFLTBRRk9PTm5DaXJpdTJyRUpiNk5XcTQ5eUtmLThVUWIxOW5MSjE2NEhLZWtfV0ZFS1hiV0t5d2V3VmdacWdXTG0wSlV3MHYwY0NsMUVrb0pSSWpvYlM5Sm1vUEc5cg?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxPWmFXOGFFSU15XzVjYmpRc1VOMF9NWlZWbDJULXIxaldkeGd1RHVtQzFiOTF6T1Zmcmt0T2FZOW5LdzQwc2lZSW4yai1tQVR0UlVGY0Q3eTF4N1AyWFJJS1l2SXZyb1FqQ1FWX1NoSWE3aE9XT0V1aDdiTHBmZkxjbWxCNTFwVk5hekVDcWthT1A4U3haS2ZBcTZ0UVNqZExSQmVIeXV2ZGJQTHpkTjMxVlVqalB5UUVYVHk0bFQzZTQ4aVdK?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOTTY5TTlwdkYwOHlVbjNDM1Jia3BsMkc0LWdrNjJ4dlEtZFgzRkxTdDc2bFRvUnUzMUNJMzlSUjNmellWTWwtVWY2ejBrRG9ETkNOdkt5el8zV1F0a29CU1k3aW9BcXJrc1NmOE9vWVJXT2J0ZEtkb0NHVnVLMml4M2FxMjFBUFhEWDhIVzc3VnZVODU0dllLTVdVYW9pRDd6d3hSaFhsZlEtS2xp0gGyAUFVX3lxTE5OUkxXWmxET0s2MzdDb2RXZklsTnJIb3BtZkZ3c1ZINWw2YmoyWXlZRzM0WmpGdVlidFBSdnNMUUdURlV2Tmk0Q3o1c3ZYZTJ1MnNBVDdnVkxPSVVZNExSXzczV0loZHM2SEJ6VVNENlFEZzBpY21qal9oUDhZRXdjZlNHTzBiRXZuRUQ4TTBrem9yOVpaOFlSQzUzdnBkUmNvc2s0ZTd
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxQX3dqbHVnc1RTLW5XOVYycjU1dExQZEUxRy1ORVBiWEtWLWFLQ3VoVGtTaFk5U3hQcThZRGdobnlSczZwYkJDOWR2OGtXbWhVMmdqTFV0U0xhVWtNMXQ1Z25GVnNtME0xWjJIV3RtNnpUUHFtOGFOSEtlblpZN3F0RUp3MzRreDRXVXRCaFlVczlOTmRSczlCQTBvODF4bnM0ZUJPeS1qNC1ZSzhwZXNEV0RoRDV2a0swVVFYTHNUU1dvcEFaT0xzY1VxTQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQMEFMdWhGY3EyeFpWUngzbEZERlFnWTBoUWxLajNUdlRZTjljX1RZUFVacW90WG5ERC1KSTJiS3B2aTE3LTZSNTJrangzS240VGtzcWw5NHRrak1aamZLbGVQSzdON2t4QVYwX0lobXZZWkVqOUw2X3FfN3RoTXhDVGsxQ25YWE1TUWVxWGtBN0wwU0NzYURaNk40Yzdtdw?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQbVNRem0xaGF1aW1KdzZITkVwY0F4Sm9fUVlSdDIzbUdtLVlILWRyalFsVHpnLTZoa1o3YWF1TDRBN0FITFRNa0x1QUFVdFA5T2x5WVdOWjRXTlUtNGlEOGxUbUUxUzZLYXZySnZhZ3IyV29zQ0ZhNEhNdDJjQ01sOVpaMTMzRDFSX0xBUjJ5d0J5RHRJelRsWGpBd1F0V0VhendJWWlPa9IBrAFBVV95cUxQT3NEekJkT0RaNFEzVnp4dXdRWjNyakVaejg2OGpPTnNJeFpNc0lzeTBXMkVxRW5PaG92OTRjYjF2WE85R2x5Z0pMSXJtRndwQlp0Y2psRHVuMXFfRGMtUE0wOUstU0VqaVFQNjZrY1BDSjZVd3BLLVdha1BKMkNVZmJEc244RlVSSWxNYlE0ZXNGNk4tWVZnWTlieWpIM1lHRXNrY1VLY2JXelN
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9USkJkVnFrUTdSMV9zT2lwRHVJVDZWRmVCZU15ckl1bkp4SkZjQWwteVptd25Pd29hUkYzd1AyeWNNeThVVnRPWWk4TjhNSkpRTEd0LUpTS0lLMnFQcm11U20yR0RPYng1N2ItMm8tQWF5dEFGOGxiR9IBfkFVX3lxTFAxOW9SRDV2aWVHT2JCeEN2X01JZTVHUEVabTJQZXYwRlRFOHhyRHFVYnc4Nkc0VVZPS0J3cVNPZUtkR0lyalhsVTdBWVNaTnl3THBJcXFtMVIyaUNQcU5CNElYbjF1RFc0UW50THQ1VnFyaWZ1aGJJR01aYUVQQQ?oc=5
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNdkVrQ2Q0MERpaVZuQWJZNXV2SEZPOElTdWVPRXRpMmNmSXQ1VDFyU2tNUDRjTjI5M3NiQ0hYQzVmRmhiVmJzVGlkTVgyWXA0VzFUR19BTFNQMmVIZkZ4ZVJCdF9JOGVpT0xocDZNdWNVRDh2QmcxZV9ReXNwZjlJVg?oc=5
2026-08-10
2026-08-10
进展要点
- 美联储可能推迟加息，关注后续经济数据
- 美国对伊朗政策转向经济施压，军事行动暂缓
- 五角大楼要求军火商加速增产，国防开支或增加
- 欧洲热浪推升能源需求，可能影响天然气价格
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
胡塞武装袭击 / 沙特供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 风险资产承压
美国就业数据疲软 / 加息预期推迟 / 美元走弱 / 黄金上涨
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / The New York Times / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Die Zeit Politics / Times of India / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260809-iran-vows-to-keep-strait-of-hormuz-closed-until-us-meets-demands
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/9/war-on-iran-phase-ii-day-29?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxQeWE3WEtHa3ZRVnlIWlJaRWlXWFg2N0xrSXIwTFh4ZGNVeUpMWlZIekRUMTlyT0RtZFRIaWt5SWxNblZpTXpxWVkwMlRsVnBmRDVxUnotOF82NURtcEV2bl9TT2FuUVVxLVRpa1VJUmtNZV9OMjd4c2JwOF92YXczY2hoRmlWX2xIQndjY3V1T3cxTm1rb0NQaE5TczVyVlRCdDNpbFNSbnRXcG9JRGlVVFVkQXdmQ1dCUFlWZV9nYS1YcEtjYWhweUtMSnZkbDdyMGxsag?oc=5
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/business/oil-stocks-iran-war.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-guards-say-wont-reopen-hormuz-without-us-meeting-tehrans-demands/article71325696.ece
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/yemens-houthis-attacked-saudi-aramco-074652468.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-08/strasse-von-hormus-iran-usa-blockade-bedingungen
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-10/10674870.shtml
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/no-more-strikes-on-iran-trump-says-us-going-low-key-stresses-economic-pressure-over-military-op/articleshow/133072747.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/644036-pentagon-arms-makers-boost-output/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-wolodymyr-selenskyj-erwartet-bis-zu-50-000-nordkoreanische-soldaten-in-russland-a-9b1cf249-bd86-4a2c-a5c0-2bae34e51889
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE04Y1dvM0R6LVdyRHBiakdGbEE0TUxyZGQ2ZzJ1TENwT3ZDSU9zVmVPdFNJZFhZdk9WazZjNzZ1bWp4NHBHb2ZLM00zdjZuakdEQWx3V2hpMVpodHhURi1vMDVuQUNMcUFFaktiRm45dHo5VFlhcm9Tc0pVaw?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQLVlSazBucFNIOGZ3aG91cDZhcTFfMWI4NWMycVczNWtmVHRKTU54WlJud1JqVUxCOW84U1p0OU5aSjdBNnJHS2xmLVVIaVdGZUpNemJKaTA5aV9TU1NHaHlZMEo1X1VjX2wxTExReTl0Tk5SYkRsMWsxWUo3UWw3UE1iV0N2UmJydWZFeHZpX01Ba1NISVdtei01OXRnMUtpem80dW5wa1FKNnhNQzZOMGlJMG8?oc=5
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/tehran-s-seeks-withdrawal-of-us-forces-from-region
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-sets-tough-terms-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
- [16] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-08/jemen-huthi-saudi-arabien-drohnenangriff-aramco-dschasan
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/world/europe/iran-strait-hormuz-trump-deal.html
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-drifts-higher-traders-eye-020453451.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNS3FIemlCS1BHU01mRTFRbFdKMG9LSjdPakhtb3Y5aHN1R1lwNzQ1c3A1Tll2a2FPQ0lWTko3a2lKaDh0c1dvZzdRdHdTbVk4R3VHZHJxNkI3ekI4UkRyUjBJTHltMUpEc0xiMTBfa0VsdFh2YjJkOTdQSlBlRnhNTzdYX242S0hUNUZFbGxzcW81UQ?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxNV2J0bUZTUDZmaGFyZHBza2I4RVlRR2pCenJQVV9NdVlxT3p6MG0zUkJOVll1WmJCZ29hQXc3WWEzaXZiQUJhUU1kV2o2MS1sSkFQelppdUtNQUk5X3hwT01rR1dEeGJkMzJZaXJOa3hOWGwxLW8tZzEwUElXM3FGbGVlNWRXR3M1eE9QUDlmaXI5a2sxcmdwMmJ5RTFsR1RaTHhBdXl6QjB1dlRaRXFMVkxQS2U0dGs?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxONUczZGxpN3lGb084MkNINGQtY1FfSDNZM1NpZk9La2xSbVB5VkpuMEVJTm03X0JpWElISU11Q1JaM1lTOHkzZGRYUl9DVWNCbnJCVXlCMzlXRjNkbGU0UUJwODF3dHU5OGFJNFFBMi1razRnQ0FEVzZXR1dsbHVqaE13dTRQRmlkZ0NfWEppa0lxeTlUeVNOWTM3Z2JmM1pPNUpXbkVTSUFzZWRfUmhiOS11TQ?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiY0FVX3lxTE5VRTFsbVotRUtYVFc1M0hWQktsNFVfODhxNGhIaGFPV3BDNHhRTk1fYXFYUHpHLWJQQmxJdGJxbllQc3ZLSkRjSkxfYWdadzNnX1FfSmxnQUZBUjJFR013MnE1dw?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7wFBVV95cUxONlRlcmg1SEUydE80Z1I0X3ZmZEQyZVdrTDhtUjVnM2ctNE5WOXc3YWhUaWs4QVpiZmU0YmRlTnF1bzFNTld2U1FDZXpWOFNnckpiMVVvLV9zZTQ3emNGejR6cXRtSUdiM3VpN2ZYdGhPM0JaYWVWeWJpY2hLUE05LXVEY3BGb2xoZjRXMWdSSG1KT3hRMU41WXlVVDhTNmNxdmFMVkMtQWNDU2FYOS1ZQlRnQ1VBME0yNEpLQkFkM244Yy1VTmM1RGYyTGJlakZPeExXWXZEWWFXaE1LeXdSOG5PcHRabXdpYjFVQ3dsRQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQTUZxOWROQkhqU0lHQ25IUWpWc2lwNmFPSUNWSTRGN2tDTFBwRlBXWlpXeEZLaGpGQi14RkFWVzZMdUlxSWVvNWxUdE0wa01hcUU1elJRamNBdEtQdXVSSVIyNVVyeV9tZTlyakdWTW5fYVlKdHNlbzJENHpGOFNaa2lUcXRtejdsNXRNcWpWRlNWVW0wQ1ZiaVVmN1BpQjdVV1ktQVJB0gGrAUFVX3lxTE1YV2laV1dHR0h1YXdEV3RLZHBSNDVnYVZZZHhFWjNxZG1DZ3FkRDkya24xV1FJTUROaHhSUUs5QnJ1ZTNUR04xSTgtWFM2ZDhyZ2Q2UFV4c3JBUnpSdzE0dWJmTWcya0tEeWx1YS10b1ZEWi00Mk1CY1VxMEdUaklsQl9OQlR0RkdRT1p0Uks4c3VfOWJheXBFVnlpQUJkNm0xcVBCMjZicVJxcw?
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNcFZWZDYyQUtoX0JtNVpYZl9KY2xNZ3dLLXdkZmZKOGdRenNtY3c0WWEzMDQxQXpBeDNjMEJLX09Rb0xOUllqTDlzVWdkVDJjNVZtUU1SVElqWm1takhZcm9MR0VGNmhoVXBkcmpDR29qUXlBaWNjdkZBUjRqVlJwczN6LS10M09Zczdranpuc183dXg3cFIxd2dHMkN0Y2JUa2FjVEhCT280T2t2YVBKa0RDYmc?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260809-moyen-orient-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-pose-ses-conditions-sur-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [27] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-us-spar-over-gaza-withdrawal
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNYTI0dEhmSTMzdmRBRWJaTjhVMEN4dUxZYjB5NG9oS2JVblQzVWxkaHZDYzAyRVF2cUVGR05ZWnBiUVJIVFF5dUVzeFhKaEtpMlQ1R01kRmE1dXpHdWFHT29YQWF5eDJ1ZE9wamE2clR6a19pM2Z4c3ByRklPRUZpU0FGeTZCUnZkaGRSZWNfSWJMdFRJ?oc=5
2026-08-09
2026-08-09
进展要点
- 美伊：特朗普政府暂停打击伊朗后，面临条件清单僵局，短期或维持施压与谈判并行。
- 美国国会：参议院已通过俄制裁法案，众议院审议期间可能调整关税范围与豁免条款。
- 印度等俄能源买家：面临100%关税威胁，可能调整采购结构或寻求豁免。
- 中国：美国对俄能源买家征税及稀土供应链措施，或加速中方反制与资源安全布局。
关联路径
伊朗条件清单 / 海峡保持关闭 / 原油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
ADNOC油轮遇袭 / 海湾航运安全恶化 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金与美元走强
美参议院对俄能源制裁 / 俄油气出口受限 / 全球能源成本上升 / 滞胀风险
法国热浪 / 玉米减产 / 农产品价格上涨 / 新兴市场食品通胀压力
来源
Google News - World / derStandard.de / Jovem Pan News / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / N1 Info Serbia / Mehr News Agency / Times of India / Süddeutsche Zeitung Politik / NPR Politics / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu BusinessLine / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Der Spiegel International / La Tribune
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPQ0Z6VE9zOTlXc2VKSUt0MU9fMDVneXJVN2d5bTVVdDNsT1dSZnNscEhZSXc4SkpQd1JwaTlFajA4T1Q2dG1LekRpa3VGblNJM2RnVVg0SUV6dFdTd0Y3UFg0QWctQ0ZhUkRfQk92MkpaTDF5WFV3aTJyRlB6a3VPdGFxY2tUbmNKa2J4bUNjQQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000334772/iran-214lgesellschaft-raketenangriff-auf-tanker-in-stra223e-von-hormuz?ref=rss
- [3] https://jovempan.com.br/mundo/ira-afirma-que-ormuz-nao-sera-aberto-ate-que-os-eua-corrijam-seu-comportamento
- [4] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-08-08/iran-thinks-time-is-on-its-side-in-u-s-war-but-strategy-is-risky
- [5] https://n1info.rs/svet/iran-postavio-sad-nove-uslove-za-otvaranje-ormuskog-moreuza
- [6] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246835/Hormuz-to-remain-closed-until-US-meets-Iran-s-demands
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/donald-trump-shoots-from-senate-shoulders-to-punish-russia-by-making-india-and-china-pay/articleshow/133055904.cms
- [8] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/usa-news-liveblog-sanktionen-kongress-russland-senat-li.3523200
- [9] https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5923962/iran-says-agreement-with-oman-for-strait-of-hormuz-prohibits-u-s-and-israeli-vessels
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/08/world/middleeast/iran-us-oman-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/8/uae-says-iran-targeted-adnoc-tanker-in-hormuz-no-casualties-2?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/iran-fm-araghchi-says-hormuz-reopening-hinges-on-other-conditions-compensation-for-us-violation/article71321782.ece
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-irgc-says-hormuz-to-open-if-us-accepts-iran-s-terms/live-78289364?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-iran-veroeffentlicht-forderungskatalog-an-die-usa-a-dfc6f1b5-7c20-485d-a7de-2d9258219f56
- [15] https://www.latribune.fr/article/entreprises-finance/energie-environnement/1677913972699614/le-pentagone-va-investir-400-millions-de-dollars-dans-une-mine-australienne-de-terres-rares
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQajV4Uk9FTWd2WFJTWWVSZS1pdkl4OGFERFdzeExaYy1udkYxWGdXYWxRdHUwd2kwLVRtRTdhRkdVdUZuNXZ3U09EQUR3OXUwUzVtZmZZeWZkWmlkTThUTDBYNVBjbE9IWVBQZnhhcHBfcFVnZTc0NG1uMk54dElXNkhzQUFZR3VkRW5QZkthVjdfdTJOaXR6YWxiZmtfdzJROGg3bWFuOVhuV2ZkTDNLNkg4d18?oc=5
- [17] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246821/Oil-prices-climb-as-uncertainty-over-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [18] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246805/Iran-not-to-allow-opening-of-second-corridor-in-Hormuz
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5vRURDejRnczR1VFVLMjZWekZvRzRPRkNyc2hfMUFHWFI5MU56SUdiNmJvckJjaFBaS3loYTMxZGJrLUNWS1otMjUtM3h6YUU4Y1hQTVdZY3lEdw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.npr.org/2026/08/06/nx-s1-5923623/iran-strait-hormuz-us-israel-ban
- [21] https://www.npr.org/2026/08/08/nx-s1-5923592/tanker-sailors-still-face-danger-in-the-strait-of-hormuz
- [22] https://n1info.rs/svet/ruske-vlasti-ugasen-pozar-u-rafineriji-nafte-iljski-koji-je-izazvao-ukrajinski-dron
- [23] https://www.latribune.fr/article/climat/agriculture-agroalimentaire/91190257032004/la-plus-faible-production-depuis-1980-la-recolte-de-mais-francais-serieusement-menacee-par-les-canicules
2026-08-08
2026-08-08
进展要点
- 美联储：7月非农走弱叠加前值下修，市场降息预期升温；特朗普政府推进解雇理事库克，独立性风险上升。
- 美国国会：参议院通过对俄制裁法案，待众议院审议；若落地，将影响俄油买家的支付与保险链条。
- 中国：稀土出口限制持续影响对日美供应，8月5日已对美涉华消极措施实施反制，后续可能扩大反制清单。
- 能源政策：印度承诺88亿美元深海勘探以减少中东依赖（Nikkei Asia）。
关联路径
霍尔木兹禁运 / 原油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温 / 全球利率路径收紧
美非农走弱 / 美联储降息预期 / 美元走弱、金价上行 / 风险资产分化
美对俄制裁 / 俄油气出口受限 / 能源价格上涨 / 欧洲与新兴市场成本压力
稀土 / 芯片材料限制 / 供应链中断 / 科技股盈利下修 / 风险偏好收缩
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / Global News / El País Internacional / The New Indian Express / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform / ABC News / The Independent / Sky News / n-tv Politik / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxOZWlZa2pnSEE5cGdyWWwzdG1OOV9waVlMZGIxVXRvdDNJU3lMc2VtczNwZjI3TGRMUGs2RE9tNVJZZ1dOVkM0VlNHMk5KX0l0TndJSHZhcU1ZalJMVVNjblRIUU5TMTV2N2pZNmxfNHU0VFBhNWg5eEJqYUhManFtTzBETFh6MDA3bHJST1dpMFg1amFWZjZvN1JCaTBRNW5lc0RibFB5Z0wwMU5OTlhPY3JFQ3VtdEhtSi1xOU9Ma2VvNUNwekZ1YQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-08/10674020.shtml
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/materials/china-rare-earth-exports-to-japan-us-plunge-after-restrictions
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-employers-shed-23k-jobs-124613432.html
- [5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-russland-sanktionen-134.html
- [6] https://globalnews.ca/news/12013215/us-senate-russia-sanctions-bill-ukraine
- [7] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-08-05/iran-insiste-en-mantener-el-control-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-trump-amenaza-con-abrirlo-por-la-fuerza.html
- [8] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Aug/07/us-job-data-stocks-jump-as-employers-unexpectedly-cut-23000-jobs-raising-hopes-for-easier-rate-policy
- [9] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrvn686dljo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4152105-rosiani-masovano-atakuvali-sim-vidobuvnih-obektiv-ukrnafti.html
- [11] https://abcnews.com/Business/jobs-report-expected-show-hiring-boost-july/story?id=135422024
- [12] https://www.independent.co.uk/us/money/jobs-report-labor-trump-iran-war-b3029340.html
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-tries-again-to-fire-federal-reserve-governor-lisa-cook-13570793
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260808/7ae7d3bb384e4a0389cdd81abef236cd/c.html
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Senat-sendet-Signal-an-Putin-Du-wirst-die-Ukraine-nicht-erobern-id31171586.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/7/war-on-iran-saudi-arabia-turkiye-and-pakistan-sign-defence-pact?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/08/07/aux-etats-unis-23-000-emplois-en-moins-en-juillet-mais-un-taux-de-chomage-en-baisse_6740506_3210.html
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPeTJnQUlaVmJJeWhQSmpmNDdrY1A4bS00bUxKeG5ES0MtTUFpYVdsdGtPaEtmM0RvWTdDc2ZUcGdfMnpFTWxpcVViWGtrQl9vWG5nOTUxSTc1SW9GUDlWcUlGQ1hXRl9OMkVkdWZnSTE2LXBEMUpoOWpqVE9CVmxhOS0yZ3NiVlZt?oc=5
- [19] https://globalnews.ca/news/12012909/us-jobs-report-july-2026
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-08-07/iran-y-oman-ultiman-un-acuerdo-sobre-ormuz-pese-a-las-amenazas-de-trump.html
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxNcm5CZUFmeUtIeDNGUXhOckUxSEN4VnhlY3JBQTNkSTBXWUVfekxRMXNhdzMzcTRjMjZydzVIMDI1czc5aHY5VnB1WmJtTkVhOHNlMFI0MkkzTEJqNlBWb1dBTFExdnhnd1pKOVk5anNzNlRZZXpXMGE5b2xJQVZjN3ZjRkVtQW5SYzNWbXlNTnVPVmNsRF92THJR0gGfAUFVX3lxTFBsdWNwdTgtWUdfM0tlaVIzNVJRRGR3Q0lsVExGV2xyQTFsQTNPWmNyME00aTdTT2RZdENaejVTMmthTDJGZi1tQm9BcHlhWFY3SktiVGdQTkxmTlFXOG1xekZrVEFIcjQzbVZibXI5TjhlZEE3WFdaaXJCUUJyRFhFQzVzbmRHc3VJeHA0MmkzY1FYZVdVYzE4NjYzMnhpRQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20j5rle717o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4152083-vid-pocatku-roku-rosiani-zdijsnili-287-atak-na-obekti-naftogazu.html
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-administration-moves-ahead-efforts-184435643.html
- [25] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/india-commits-8.8bn-to-deep-sea-oil-exploration-to-cut-mideast-reliance
- [26] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/tanker-oel-oman-100.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/7/us-labour-market-sheds-jobs-in-july-as-labour-force-participation-slumps?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4152135-sili-bezpilotnih-sistem-urazili-se-sist-suden-tinovogo-flotu-rf-i-bazu-fsb-na-hersonsini.html
2026-08-07
2026-08-07
进展要点
- 美联储等央行将关注油价传导的通胀预期，利率路径或重新定价。
- 美日干预或持续，美国财政部与日本财务省可能协调进一步行动。
- 英国对俄LNG制裁留有豁免谈判空间，韩英可能达成临时安排。
- 中国或就美国多晶硅关税及涉华限制出台反制清单，涉及光伏、半导体等领域。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡爆炸+限航法案 / 原油供应中断预期 / 油价 / 天然气急涨 / 通胀预期升温 / 央行利率路径修正
伊朗威胁海湾国家 / 中东军事风险溢价 / 黄金 / 避险资产走强 / 风险资产承压
美对华多晶硅关税 / 中国反制 / 全球光伏供应链成本上行 / 新能源板块波动
美日联合干预汇市 / 日元走强 / 套息平仓 / 全球风险资产与新兴市场汇率波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Anadolu Agency Politics / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The Korea Times / BBC News (Top) / Tagesschau / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/brent-oil-prices-rise-5-amid-hormuz-uncertainty/4020590
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNQV8zdjVQNEctTWh2cW83azhtc0w1NENNN0dTUjRkMnNwQ2J6TzdBZVJ3NFJwQTJHLTU0YU1lM2EtZTVZUmwzNFBCSzJBYXpkMlVzdnNUVmFQZWJtTUJfalVtMG5wTkFzeWhpMThDOFZ1QkVaSDFVeU00RVJHcmFnTS1YMA?oc=5
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-imposes-15-tariff-on-polysilicon-in-pushback-against-china
- [4] https://unn.ua/news/iran-khoche-zaboronyty-prokhid-suden-ssha-ta-izrailiu-cherez-ormuzku-protoku-bloomberg
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260806/d70085bdbd2d493eaabdd2c18e3498e9/c.html
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/exclusive-iran-warns-gulf-states-120151806.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/6/will-the-us-iran-war-and-hormuz-deadlock-last-for-months?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-irritationen-über-öffnung-der-straße-von-hormus/a-78271097?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [9] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/others/20260806/seoul-seeks-exemption-from-uk-sanctions-on-russian-lng-official?utm_source=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/08-06/10673208.shtml
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwymv212xrxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/oman-oeltanker-102.html
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260807/7536a1a4a605471fb6a382cba9e21374/c.html
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4151841-rosiani-atakuvali-dronami-nimecke-vantazne-sudno-u-cornomu-mori.html
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxNSmQ1LXl0TV9pM3ZfbUw2bjByTnVLSThIdG4ybGFJQTJrSnZhVlRBMXY4N2N1a3dFN2xjRkc0YmVRSDVEbWcxVlJSbF9oN1R4MGNPWUFWZndtNWQ0QXdJczY1czVBaVFaYXIzZVBsZG5sM3RrZ0Z1SjNSVXhzYlIwTzhCSS13UdIBiwFBVV95cUxQTnpkWkFmd0xKY0VDYm5UbGx2cVZNTWdoMWlnVmJBT3drSDJsTTlxbHNfcDFaNXR5eTY0aGtOOWNleTE3aFk4Zko4N3dZWnNyNjZHSDI4ZGlTQ3p0YjNxRHp0NGZWai1HZDBPMTFNVGl6T3U4a0UyclNOSVFJVl9jamRWWV9jNWFoVUNj?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxNOUJOcXJWLW5ZbG82NGJON0JYdUtfMUh3SU9GSmFYb2ZDMjBia05fZ25kZnF1UHd0Und1a3BZTjRKbUhwZEVGRHR5aGhRM3FuNjhZNFFuMUlzMVh3MHZfMVE4dHJxbzREcEZGVG9kazFyalgtamJSb1lzbWg4TDJna2tzb21NanM?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iranian-parliament-reviews-bill-to-restrict-strait-of-hormuz-transit/4020491
- [18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-israeli-attacks-disrupted-nearly-230m-cubic-meters-of-daily-gas-output-iranian-president/4020622
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/6/aje-onl-nf_aje-onl-nf-iran-omar-hormuz-deal-060826?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/08-07/10673299.shtml
2026-08-06
2026-08-06
进展要点
- 巴西央行进入宽松周期，连续四次降息至14%，后续仍取决于通胀与外部风险（Valor Eco...
- 美联储/主要央行暂无新增信号，但霍尔木兹海峡局势演变将影响油价与通胀预期
- 美国对华关税政策出现“退款1000亿美元”与新增多晶硅关税并行的分化信号（BBC News...
- 中国以出口管制反制美国打压，无人机两用物项管控趋严（ECNS Politics News）
关联路径
霍尔木兹协议落地 / 油价风险溢价回落 / 通胀预期降温 / 风险资产上涨
红海袭击扩大 / 航运中断 / 原油供应担忧 / 油价反弹
巴西降息 / 雷亚尔贬值 / 新兴市场资本流动承压
中美关税 / 出口管制升级 / 供应链扰动 / 科技与新能源板块波动
来源
Xinhua World / Valor Econômico Politics / Anadolu Agency Politics / The Korea Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / The Irish News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Euronews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Focus Taiwan Politics / ECNS Politics News / RT News / BBC News (Business) / SIC Notícias
参考链接
- [1] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/08/05/bc-faz-quarto-corte-seguido-na-selic-e-taxa-vai-a-14percent-ao-ano.ghtml
- [2] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/houthis-claim-they-hit-2nd-saudi-oil-tanker-in-a-day/4019517
- [3] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260806/iran-threatens-to-hit-gulf-states-if-us-launches-new-strikes?utm_source=rss
- [4] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/bericht-usa-und-iran-vor-ubergangsdeal-in-strasse-von-hormus-51027876
- [5] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/trump-says-deal-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-could-come-as-early-as-wednesday-DSLT27FMCFI4DOWAOXYUUX3HTM
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNRFhWUm13bDV5N1k3cTRza0RwN2JJSlB2bldrYWU5ZVBNcEpEY2k5NDJHejRMVDRWTVNCV19CY19JTk85bEtUUVVxTlBqOUVmZXN4NG5TVnNZV1JHRDNwVmpDQU5CM2ZCdDZ2dFQtZzZvdWtKZnJVa2ZYSE5MQS1WWFBqdGdNWGpNWDhpbmxUMHk0QQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e14zn0pxeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.euronews.com/rss?level=program&name=europe-news
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/5/iran-says-hormuz-talks-with-oman-in-final-stages-as-route-approved?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260805/90df553c9925475abc39093068f5d2b7/c.html
- [11] https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202608040017
- [12] http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-08-05/detail-ihfhziqh0062455.shtml
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/643913-us-pentagon-nuclear-russia-china/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyewn5wexvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/tensao-eua-irao/2026-08-05-irao-e-oma-chegam-a-acordo-sobre-nova-rota-maritima-no-estreito-de-ormuz-f9864da9
- [16] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260806/iran-says-close-to-hormuz-plan-with-oman-but-reopening-depends-on-us?utm_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNMVdVODNiYzNHUXdESW9Hb0NPMExXVFJseWhOdHIzZ1VfRG9mUzFYNWRoZjdzRV8xdnA0YWFQajJzTGpyYmxjTlN1SDEtUDEzR0s5cWFwckNsN3VTWFhmekxnd2xsdDM0RGlsMVF6YTVkSHpoWEN1ZmlYTi10cU9QQUNKNNIBiAFBVV95cUxNQVNZNURhYmhuYWNhRl81dVY2WHRNRlFjeHdZc1pseGY1bnJDTzctWE55SmJNclhrME5vQmVRbElKWkdyX0RscGNOUDVZVmQtRGZfajUzeHNwVTJGLTczdmUxTTJZcVQyU3c4YTNJcGp2X2hESDlON2VqVEU0TlM4LU92V1NPZmd6?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxOZ3luLUxvekFtWFdpQU9vSnJ2RzRwdndUZ205VmYwcEl2WDNPSmZ1YUNteThESjB4LW5SdHlXX3pyZkdqNGtQd0JDQU5oeER4U21BY1AtMUpiSEdDWHZacnV5SGdQOXpzdllRU1lTLUtFZlFlU25JWGgtMnRSaE9sdVNOWQ?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-military-says-it-redirected-48-vessels-while-enforcing-iran-blockade/4019496
- [20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-hints-at-unilateral-military-action-against-iran-amid-regional-de-escalation-efforts/4019514
- [21] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260806/mideast-deal-hopes-lift-dow-sp-to-records-spacex-amd-drag-nasdaq?utm_source=rss
- [22] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/nahost-krieg/artikel/krieg-in-nahost-einigung-auf-neue-route-durch-strasse-von-hormus-50530859
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/5/war-on-iran-us-iran-deal-edges-closer?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/8/5/is-the-conflict-between-russia-and-ukraine-deepening?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://sicnoticias.pt/programas/confronto/2026-08-05-video-pode-haver-acordo-eua-irao-em-48-horas--616cb3e7
2026-08-05
2026-08-05
进展要点
- 美方高频释放霍尔木兹协议信号：贝森特称协议或于8月4-5日达成；特朗普称给伊朗'最后机会'。
- 伊朗与阿曼谈判聚焦'进出港动态管控'，伊朗保留干预权，协议若落地可能附带航行备案/检查机制。
- 欧盟对俄LNG禁令与进口现实背离，后续或出台豁免条款或延迟执行，关注布鲁塞尔立法动向。
关联路径
霍尔木兹协议预期 / 油价单日跌超5% / 通胀预期降温 / 利率与美元承压
海峡重开受阻 / 袭击再现 / 原油供应风险回升 / 油价反弹 / 避险
俄封锁黑海 / 乌克兰谷物出口减半 / 全球粮价上行 / 新兴市场输入性通胀
欧盟对俄LNG制裁 vs 进口新高 / 欧洲气价波动 / 区域通胀预期
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / SIC Notícias / RT News / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Global News / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News TV / Independent Español
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/8/4/why-are-oil-companies-posting-record-profits-amid-iran-war-disruption?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://sicnoticias.pt/economia/2026-08-04-possivel-acordo-sobre-estreito-de-ormuz-deixa-brent-em-queda-a3ad4262
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/643857-eu-russian-lng-imports/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOb1dzNlFyVzBvZVo3TTVibFVsY3RKbkdTUWpkQ0VCZmg0MmFudEdqYm5OMkRKWExKbTRLVWpsa1BqVDl2NkV4cXBNcDlZSHlTeWdHWFBoQWYwVnBhSWlQM2IwMktWRHB5aGFnSkQwektXaUZYemltQWRvZjFXOE5ydURnaTZoSS1maTZBNXBxYkF5UmRhWmFiOVczeHBUeFlpZVgyMFZrVEdHV0Q0WVZPWWJEUmRQeXd1WGlOM3FR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260805/042d9ce8d2644fcb8e1f0afa921706b0/c.html
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-oman-progress-deal-reopen-161723706.html
- [7] https://globalnews.ca/news/12008434/big-oil-companies-profits-spike-oil-price
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-04/10672045.shtml
- [9] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw9v0gnzxwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260804232510g52
- [11] https://www.independentespanol.com/noticias/mundo/europa/imagenes-satelitales-muestran-que-derrame-de-un-petrolero-varado-frente-a-oman-se-expande-velozmente-b3027479.html
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260805/262117f2e80b4bb88f36038ddf7a75ca/c.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPVU0xallOZlhRWEctQ1dSMVZfMWlDbjRDdGxVMDVrRllhVmtKY3pnQzJBcE1YcS1CN3BQdU9Sb2h3Y1dhUnA2SDdybGpBbHN5QU4tQmI5TnVuVG1sX3pXeFRBWFIyMTZSQjhUbHpHa0lkUXpXbzNocTBRZ2JpcDgxZE5FWHlQU2toRHNUbjdLTUxMVWJ6SW1oajl5Zk_SAaIBQVVfeXFMTl9NTEZSQnZhYTQyRDJJVnM4emJSUmFaaWJUdlpkZHFzNVhjLTYtanFIVUdaT3MwSk1NQ3dkdmVhMWplcGhRYm56STBoaFZySHlaVUdLNHRJd2NNVmh3NU5kTE9ZTkdMb3dDQUlqN3JSbXYwZmFFS1huUEZnc1h4Wm1WTWQ1Y1hxRl84WFplbW5US0FNSW01Q0VTR1dXdmNlT05n?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/4/rubio-progress-made-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNS1phV2RlVWU1dzBLWkI5Umlaa05xQ0FGS3pvVXRuTV9fNWVIY3JBWnZIZkdlNFZ1MDRYR0c1V0hXdkdCeThfRnZ4VnBIUXRnN3ViVXF0WlB6MnFNRjEyZUhZdlBPTUpEVmxwNDRvOVg2RnA4SWJzRHF0cTlsMVBaVlI4WF9vcjlYM3BqSWRHX3dwMlYzWDBjYU5EamNEVjg2MW9rMnFTMFJDU250b3NaUQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-04/10671978.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-04/10671976.shtml
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/4/us-says-deal-on-reopening-hormuz-close-as-iran-oman-hold-positive-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://globalnews.ca/news/12008124/iran-strait-of-hormuz-strikes
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR2026080505423898i
2026-08-04
2026-08-04
进展要点
- 美对伊政策呈“谈判+封锁”双轨，未来48小时谈判进展是分水岭；军事选项未撤，仍以极限施压驱动。
- 美日联合干预或常态化，日本财务省可能扩大干预规模并寻求G7背书；美财政部参与显示汇率政策重回协调。
- 欧洲各国将启动能源紧急预案，包括重启煤电、放宽核电冷却取水限制、跨区电力调配与需求响应。
- 特朗普政府面对关税诉讼，可能调整部分商品豁免或程序性抗辩，但关税本身大概率维持至判决。
关联路径
美伊谈判 / 霍尔木兹通航 / 油价 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策路径
欧洲干旱 / 水位 / 核电 / 水电 / 电力价格 / 工业产出
日元干预 / 套息交易风向 / 全球风险偏好 / 新兴市场货币
关税诉讼 / 贸易政策不确定性 / 企业成本 / 供应链 / 风险资产
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New York Times / Times of India / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / ORF.at News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260803-trump-says-us-iran-talks-continue-warns-tehran-faces-last-chance
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026080406040419c
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260804/0c3e11cc29fd4351868b454b0a393bb9/c.html
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/new-talks-last-chance-for-iran-to-forge-deal-avoid-escalation-of-us-strikes-trump/article71302832.ece
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/3/trump-blasts-duplicitous-iran-after-tehran-denies-it-is-in-talks-with-the-us?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-tells-iranians-to-make-deal-or-surrender/live-78210315?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPRVh3V1FLVExDcEN6Sm80UnlINWYxYlAtSUZtYWtRZDJ2R0RqTnl4RFp4MWp3Z1J0VHZ1M25UUGk3LTZlV1o2Q3F0bHg0VGg0QVpzS1hPVjJFLTVpZXhobjZRdVhldnBpajlLOGM1ZUcwZldWT2RqUTdqSVlHSnBZa2dhYVU2RFVXUGc5YWxzMG9FOG5wME5zRlNDdHEwM3Bsb2JoR0hYZTk0cGsyUUJpMA?oc=5
- [8] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-08/03/neue-hitzebelastung-und-rekordtief-des-rheins
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/business/us-japan-yen-intervention.html
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/centre-raises-windfall-tax-on-petrol-diesel-and-atf-exports-from-august-3/articleshow/132835740.cms
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78gn8zvrx4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.rt.com/russia/643796-qeshm-iran-american-airstrike/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/eastern-and-central-europe-on-brink-of-energy-emergency-amid-record-low-water-and-heatwaves-13569304
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/neue-zoelle-von-donald-trump-25-demokratische-bundesstaaten-klagen-dagegen-a-83290b12-453d-4133-aa8d-91be7696d66e
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/08-04/10671498.shtml
- [16] https://orf.at/stories/3438109
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260804060458ilO
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260804034515bgC
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxOQ1dLLUtEN1BOZURoRGtpQ1JYaDRibllHa25fRHBpNXlrSUdLV1N3NzVETUFZN3FXTFZlUTB2dmJWd1hSWUNRdDdVcUNnTmNfTTgtVXd1eTJ3WmNoRWxrY2FhcFdlX1d4bUxQdzVIcWM5RHNHNDBsOEN0TjFVTGN5ZHMtZkJ2SW5JTVJLWC04YzJmRG9CTlM5MGRVdzFTNVNYcVVOcGlzeFlSamc?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5TSnN1U21sR0JiWU5yZno0cmQzUUo1NGFPMGFiYzlmV1VrRnZEaFR5c0V4NmFkWTJ6MC1EN09wSU9jS2loS0s3YklOV21hUlctUlRlXzVrX2hTdw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9co-tech/20260803-aux-%C3%A9tats-unis-25-%C3%A9tats-contestent-en-justice-les-nouveaux-droits-de-douane-de-donald-trump
- [22] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-08/us-zoelle-donald-trump-bundesstaaten-klage
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/3/trump-says-talks-with-iran-are-last-chance-to-forge-a-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-donald-trump-droht-teheran-mit-letzter-chance-wieder-einmal-a-e0755007-43cf-4199-95c5-b9453dca4011
2026-08-03
2026-08-03
进展要点
- 美伊外交：特朗普宣称协议框架，但伊朗否认；若周一谈判无果，美方可能恢复打击选项。
- OPEC+：连续第六次增产，9月按计划日增18.8万桶；若油价因地缘风险急涨，增产节奏可能调整。
- 汇率政策：日美联合干预释放“容忍度有限”信号，关注G7是否协调或进一步介入汇市。
- 欧洲能源：匈牙利核电停运后呼吁节能，依赖昂贵进口；其他多瑙河国家或跟进应急措施。
关联路径
美伊谈判反复 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航风险 / 油价 / 通胀预期 / 央行利率路径
OPEC+增产 / 原油供给 / 油价承压 / 能源板块与通胀
日美联合干预 / 日元 / 美元 / 套息交易与全球风险偏好
欧洲干旱 / 核电 / 水电停运 / 电价 / 制造业与进口需求
来源
Google News - World / The New York Times / The Independent / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / El Mundo - International News / elDiario.es Internacional / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / Times of India / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu BusinessLine / El País Internacional / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPSDBJUW9hNDF0UEVzelo4M3N0c1JyWHZWVjhxa1hEanZzMHQ0YzNUbnJPUDRDbTBuSFJFaXBJMjB4TFVaMV9IQVZ3dDRaUEJlYUhnRk1PSk85djZyRWljM3oyaEJ3STR3Ny1rTlB1RFR1anYydmt6X1c4bG9JQ2cyWmJDVzRhd2pVVFFBSURPWDVOcDFZb2RLcXRhbnFKUjFqQ1BtdEQzRE93emNRVnZvM0dR?oc=5
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/business/oil-prices-plummet-iran-war.html
- [3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-trump-us-war-live-hormuz-attack-israel-saudi-b3025947.html
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260803070710TKB
- [5] https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/chevron-ceo-warns-iran-conflict-171601296.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/iran-says-negotiations-with-oman-over-strait-of-hormuz-in-final-stages?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260802-trump-suspend-les-frappes-contre-l-iran-sous-condition-d-un-accord-rapide
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-us-carried-out-joint-forex-intervention-friday-for-1st-time-since-2011
- [9] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/08/02/6a6ed77cfdddffca358b458b.html
- [10] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/trump-asegura-paraliza-ataques-iran-espera-concretar-acuerdo-ponga-guerra_1_13423329.html
- [11] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-08/opec-oel-foerderung-produktionsmenge-obergrenze
- [12] https://orf.at/stories/3438010
- [13] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/hungary-shut-its-only-nuclear-plant-for-the-first-time-in-44-years-after-the-danube-fell-too-low-to-cool-its-reactors-nearly-half-its-electricity-supply-is-now-affected/articleshow/132809525.cms
- [14] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c998gg5pe09o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-holds-off-iran-strikes-on-pledge-a-hormuz-deal-is-close/article71298637.ece
- [16] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-08-02/donald-trump-dice-que-suspende-los-ataques-contra-iran-a-la-espera-de-un-acuerdo-rapido.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260803051905NxS
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNSVY4RGctRkYyaklJaDlVN0RvWUZTcWdrUjJnM0ZubGI2bENzQ1lSU1NtNGZIX0NBTEJFU1pvMnlwemhnSnVwRl9uTU9Rc3pNUS1GcEpSMWhaX1VtdU9vdUpkRk1tZFNjZjIwLXlJdWtzcTBkVFJEY01ocXNNSUxzN3lIOGlvakt3T3VSNXRFanRicXd4dFBDVHBVU2dNR1VL?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1oYUZ6VWhYbnNlNndSMVlVdmtXeU0wWEFJek51QUtTNm1Taks0ODMwTzdhV3hnbkQtVUc0Sy01S1p1akNpY2lqeTl2RkRyTWhJMTlNdEMxQ2lXQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260802233335tUN
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/no-breakthrough-on-strait-of-hormuz-as-trump-halts-attack-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-order-halt-iran-040913054.html
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/8/2/ukrainian-farmers-use-temporary-storage-to-revive-grain-exports?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.france24.com/en/us-israel-to-hold-off-on-iran-strikes
2026-08-02
2026-08-02
进展要点
- 美国可能对伊朗能源设施发动军事打击，需关注周末动向。
- 伊拉克与土耳其管道协议或缓解部分供应压力，但长期效果待观察。
- 中国制造业PMI收缩，可能促使政策宽松。
- 美国对巴西关税可能引发报复措施，贸易摩擦升级。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡遇袭 / 供应中断风险 / 油价上涨
美伊冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金上涨
中国制造业PMI收缩 / 大宗商品需求预期下降 / 商品价格承压
美国对巴西关税 / 巴西出口成本上升 / 贸易流减少 / 风险偏好下降
来源
Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / La Croix / Valor Econômico Politics / n-tv Politik / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / 20 Minutes Politique / Times of India / ORF.at News / ANTARA News #2 / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNZC01LTFlUHo2T0haVkFkVVB1RVRjQWR5WTFMWjgzSjdiWnQ2X3NFX29wSVRMSU84S2NPNHZtY01PMVhzby1RZEVnZlFlZlpBSkQ1NWZBSW4yelpLa0txN2hreVJnMVdtT1NQMTFUb0hnX2xVUnFscjJJSzNBR1EtSUx5bm44a0ZkQlFfWkRQU21WZHZ1U1Rld1BsT0wtS0NjM2xINHdFTU15VXpB?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iraq-turkey-strike-1-oil-174014581.html
- [3] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Aug/01/trump-threatens-more-strikes-on-iran-tensions-from-hormuz-to-kuwait-gaza-lead-to-more-warnings-2
- [4] https://www.la-croix.com/international/direct-guerre-iran-israel-usa-jour-154-moyen-orient-bilan-resume-aujourdhui-20260731
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2026/08/01/tarifas-de-trump-impactam-at-42-pontos-percentuais-das-exportaes-de-estados-brasileiros-aos-eua.ghtml
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Unbekanntes-Geschoss-stoppt-Tanker-vor-Kueste-des-Oman-id31148465.html
- [7] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/08/01/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-revendique-des-bombardements-nocturnes-contre-trois-raffineries-russes_6732775_3210.html
- [8] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-30/egipto-confirma-que-un-dron-provoco-el-incendio-de-dos-buques-de-gas-en-su-costa-cerca-del-canal-de-suez.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801220612x8x
- [10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk4nyr0j73o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/ukraine/4237306-20260801-guerre-ukraine-trump-hesite-missiles-patriot-kiev-vise-geant-e-commerce-russe?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/prepare-to-depart-us-embassies-issue-alert-across-middle-east-amid-iran-tensions/articleshow/132794132.cms
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3437903
- [14] https://en.antaranews.com/news/425067/indonesia-raises-cocoa-export-benchmark-on-supply-crunch
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/turkiye-iraq-sign-one-year-agreement-on-iraq-turkiye-crude-oil-pipeline/4015824
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE9oRTNwSzhjdThNS3RGMVZ4OWR3Mzlmc21IUHlnNk85QVNMdUdFbEt5WGpoNVhnUTQ3NmNrU0d4c2xaN1VvVVlsaXZRMjRaUFBfMG82S2I5YWJTQlhKc2VoeXZvOFJWVmtMa0pqQWsyUjc1VDlFNmxjN3hn0gF_QVVfeXFMUHBoU3RoelBqNTY4b2xWZmk2QXU3NkJmMXhydUliUURoYm8xalJaa3l3VmJfdU5HejhKQTFMSXNCNDRnNFA0bDNxZ285M250eGpneUVPdjZHOTdsWWFYY3BWdWcybDlocWlFNFB2bVJYWnMyWmlXV08wbFRnNmtYRQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOOEk5U1drMnVLRVlvM0dnYmxvS0UzUVIySmhoS1pIZWdEWTdQMGdyUlUtWW1HTWNhY3Y4UmlSam1oOGRZMlNWMWsxSE9La2ZLQVVZTVk5SlFWcVoyNVZNZEtRZ3l0Wnowd05WbHRFVGExV3NGWjZRNEZHVTRFVVd5bFozRnBtLWxqaC1uanNwYw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-erwaegt-Angriffe-auf-iranische-Energieinfrastruktur-id31148222.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/08/02/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-ambassades-americaines-appellent-leurs-citoyens-a-envisager-de-quitter-la-region_6737099_3210.html
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/china-factory-activity-unexpectedly-slips-035826988.html
- [21] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-versenkt-Containerschiff-der-russischen-Atombehoerde-id31149252.html
2026-08-01
2026-08-01
进展要点
- 美联储内部对通胀路径出现分歧，短期利率或维持不变，但未来加息门槛下降。
- 美财政部干预日元暗示或改变汇率政策边界，需警惕多边汇率摩擦。
- 美国DHS禁止43家中国企业进口，中美贸易限制可能继续加码。
- 中国副总理何立峰就美方最新贸易限制表示严重关切，反制或酝酿中。
关联路径
霍尔木兹遇袭 / 原油供应风险溢价 / 布伦特上行 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行紧缩预期
美联储通胀异议 / 美债收益率上行 / 美元波动 / 新兴市场资金外流压力
美以打击伊朗能源 / 油价进一步上行 / 风险资产承压 / 黄金 / 避险货币受益
欧洲热浪 / 低水位 / 核电减产+航运成本 / 欧洲能源与工业品通胀
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The New York Times / RT News / Nikkei Asia / ABC News / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Agency / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPTExVbGpfeGpwRzZoYzd1SlBvaWhnZVJoUXc3ekdDWWZ6alQ2ckh2dzhSV3B5VWVJLWZlSkp4bDltM3pQaXN1MHJBUWQ2NnV1UnFQeG05SWQ3akZJczRxd0lmaDVvd2R4R2VXQWZ2T2pLWXQydGowVDMtUWhYUTBNMzd0emxJUldOcHJ3SVF6UjcxUU5Tdm9SdDNkUQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/economy/inflation-fed-dissent-interest-rates.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/643719-heatwave-europe-nuclear-powerdown/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-tells-banks-further-yen-intervention-possible-yen-surges
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260801/9495dd232be9459f95e2139a606ec4b1/c.html
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Politics/dhs-blocks-43-chinese-companies-conducting-business-united/story?id=135262293
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801032933sVb
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801013436pZU
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260731-why-has-riyadh-joined-the-us-in-striking-tehran
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/russia-and-ukraine-report-casualties-as-they-continue-to-trade-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5674867/china-nyatakan-keprihatinan-serius-atas-pembatasan-dagang-as
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jaishankar-calls-araghchi-as-maritime-risks-persist-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-black-sea/article71291761.ece
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-germany-welcomes-hamas-disarmament-plan/live-78183794?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQa0Nlc3FFeTZIM0dHUG8wYm9yaXhpOFBRSzJNQ09nZW9aUHlCWU5hU1ZZOE1XVXdhcXVmZnJiZzgtaGdSbkU2Y2FsZXlWOXp1LXdGT2t3MHhGZGlwS095dURvODFaSUlSRER3aHl1Z3ZMbVlPWThNUExqTnZuZ2ZwZmxOUmJ2bXo4d1RwX3VILXpiLW1fTEgxMm5NQ0RrZjQ3cUlGZG5DY2FGRmQwdHkwcjJn?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPWlZrblhRajBMcWNtSEd2ZmhsUmN0ZmFpTVFoZWlsS2Q4c0VQbWhlUV92YU1vdTNoVEMyd0t4bjJWaERIQ2VKeWdYUnVxQ2JlUTQ1dkRLY3Z2ZlpOM0hHMkVfdXd5alpUMWk5R1ZGUjN3V240dXQzTnk2Yjk0b1QwYVBjSQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260731/b2152b10db1d4570a078ecfcda4db3f5/c.html
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/us/politics/iran-ukraine-war.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801004355TGU
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801065115qvi
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/imd-forecasts-below-normal-rainfall-in-august/article71291310.ece
2026-07-31
2026-07-31
进展要点
- 美联储降息预期因GDP放缓而升温。
- 日本央行可能继续干预汇市以支撑日元。
- 美国可能进一步扩大关税豁免范围。
- 美国对华稀土施压可能升级。
关联路径
中东冲突 / 石油供应中断风险 / 原油价格飙升
俄乌冲突外溢 / 北约反应 / 避险需求上升
美国GDP放缓 / 美联储降息预期 / 美元走弱
日本干预汇市 / 日元走强 / 全球风险偏好下降
多瑙河低水位 / 核电站关闭 / 区域电力供应风险
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / BBC News (Business) / France 24 #2 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPNDNZZ1IzbDlvbkRLRjJWbXNlYVI1cUh2eUVZUmxPUzJON2hDV2xiYVFyRTR2TWcyQ05YM0hRaGdrUzRBcFN1Ti1YV3I5WG5tdG0takNaMEp6WER1TzFXNEpQR2NFeHN4WFNnTFMwZDhUVkE1dGpWVnpDdG1FVG15c0wwa2I3UQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/30/security-camera-shows-russian-missile-exploding-in-poland?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-carries-out-yen-buying-intervention-as-us-executes-rate-check
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0nqv05g0do?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/economy/trump-tariffs-exemptions.html
- [6] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russian-strikes-across-ukraine-kill-9-and-nato-scrambles-jets-after-a-missile-falls-in-poland/article71287476.ece
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-saudi-arabien-greift-ziele-im-irak-an-konflikt-wird-zum-flaechenbrand-a-61018b7f-1b04-4163-bba0-7dfde8204547
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-retaliates-iran-attack-expert-100029783.html
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5672887/pasukan-as-lancarkan-serangan-baru-ke-iran-seiring-meluasnya-konflik
- [10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd0xvrmlx2eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260730-pakistan-says-us-iran-talks-still-alive-despite-fresh-wave-of-us-strikes
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/643656-iraq-us-saudi-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQdDQ4dzN5S3FNdkY1MHF5RnNqdk4wMkNxM04tTU1RWXBhT01qQTFCZUtRdzltUTVXOW1KTG05ajZpWkdEX3BRcDhkbjdrZnhwbWtCS25QU3lheWRLVFFhSV83WGQ4dEpOampaRWZNX1dOSEdwUkdmRXJsekNELW9VUm1LTjdDNXljQk16SXpkVmstYlFocWFuR0s4enVMX3FaTnJKV1V4YU9rajIwd1MwcWw5OA?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVnV5VmFlVUF0bkZUbjdIeHZqZUFXM3Npd0NlN1p6SDlJTGlLd0F1dWhUSjFnRUozNlc1MUx2eUw5d3BMSFJvX3pLYUpYNkkyaHNWWUVETV91Um5tbG5fOXpWS0h4cWV6MkZvN1o0UEd3b3FXbkpfaVVDbER4MTlidXVaM2FSY0hGYV91ekN6aW9mWmdZREt2ckVFOU9vMU41UlpHSVRB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74gwdzywmeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/30/nato-jets-scramble-as-russian-missile-detonates-in-poland?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/30/irgc-video-of-retaliatory-strikes-on-us-targets-in-jordan?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/nato-says-russian-missile-crashed-122019554.html
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/us-china-tensions/us-urges-china-to-fully-meet-rare-earths-pledge-in-virtual-meeting-bessent-says
- [20] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/agriculture/thai-rice-indian-sugarcane-show-signs-of-early-el-nino-impact
2026-07-30
2026-07-30
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率但内部分歧加剧，沃什鹰派言论暗示政策可能转向收紧。
- 若油价持续高位，核心通胀可能回升，美联储或被迫加息。
- 美国政府可能考虑动用战略石油储备以平抑油价，但规模存疑。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹 / 曼德海峡航运中断 / 原油 / 天然气供应缺口 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温
美联储鹰派信号 / 美债收益率上升 / 风险资产估值压缩 / 股市下跌
美元走弱 + 避险需求 / 黄金上涨
能源成本上升 / 企业利润下滑 + 消费支出减弱 / 经济衰退担忧
来源
Xinhua Finance / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu / The New York Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/us-and-saudi-araba-jointly-strike-iraq-widening-the-conflict
- [2] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5671951/harga-minyak-as-melonjak-5-persen-setelah-sukses-cegat-serangan-iran
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260730073836m4T
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOUkR3aXh1M3FtS2lBcEJhaDBHQlpsbHBFY2FtbFVtYmJ0b0FqT1hQb2t3ZWVyNEI4eFJGLVB0VlVxMkxweWZoODN6dm9DU2s2dkRYbDFaV1RSV2o1c05JcHBleFNwaEVmd0NyZW55R08xWUIzZE11M3lsVHhSSE1mR1Rya29xV0paSXpOMzNNV3I0a1JZLW9Bbmpkc3B0X1pDNmtVTXB2akpzNkx2N1doclZB?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-hit-iran-hard-200936535.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/29/trump-threatens-iran-strikes-after-attack-on-us-base-in-jordan?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://abcnews.com/Business/oil-prices-surge-after-trump-vows-retaliation-iranian/story?id=135185546
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260730/0d53e6e6ffe541bcb71be7935c58741c/c.html
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/aegypten-drohne-trifft-us-gastanker-a-40272353-f616-460f-87e0-4fabf34bbaea
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-resumes-missile-attacks-as-us-and-saudis-strike-tehran-backed-militias-in-iraq/article71283154.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/28/world/iran-us-strikes-iraq-trump/saudi-arabia-makes-a-reluctant-entry-into-the-us-iran-war
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260730073926D1a
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202607300740579mm
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxQU1BNRS1paV9lU2ZLTUljNjFSM3NlczBhaGNpRnFUQndLWnRpdzZyVHpTbG04Y3pqMFFXRHY5dmo4Z3FHMGZVLWJwaFkwRjg3M1VLTHRYQmp2ajNLY1pCekVHd1I2WFdiVDZQVEU4YmRvVzd6MlRQLU9CYnRUZl9mQ0VlUE5YektSQ1BNT1VsaGt5dXpzYmZhVFNpSmc?oc=5
- [15] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5671355/harga-minyak-as-melesat-lima-persen-setelah-gagalkan-serangan-iran
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/drone-hits-storage-tanker-at-egyptian-port-in-major-middle-east-escalation-security-firm-says
- [17] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/federal-votes-keep-interest-rates-182750743.html
- [18] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260730/abbcf307e6f14cf79cdb69fa3666b7a8/c.html
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/business/iran-war-hormuz-red-sea-shipping.html
- [20] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260730/f48aef2b20ca49c88d6b11e00b0b866b/c.html
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE9lUlNXWlBZaE01azJKdjNfb2hoM1FYYVdzdGRFZ1F0dlBQbU9PSzZLLXhEdWcxRE01VDluUEJKVFIxdU5RcU1kOHN2U2JVbE5WWFFxVjFYeHlxR19xbFpqczA5RnVpaGtWU1QyM09pS0hGb1BWRlcwcFRDVGE?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/29/us-fed-holds-interest-rates-steady-citing-elevated-inflation?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/29/iran-pushes-back-against-us-as-regional-attacks-heat-up?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-dass-benjamin-netanyahu-wieder-in-washington-ist-erhoeht-das-risiko-a-3fe88b5e-4ee6-4c30-854d-953653988b8c
- [25] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/yemen-government-says-houthis-planning-to-impose-fees-for-red-sea-transit/article71283059.ece
- [26] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5671877/konflik-as-iran-bisa-berlanjut-berbulan-bulan-karena-isu-selat-hormuz
2026-07-29
2026-07-29
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策：特朗普威胁若谈判失败将恢复强力军事行动并摧毁核设施，外交窗口仅剩2天。
- 阿曼调解角色：海湾方案被拒后，阿曼可能继续斡旋，但伊朗要求更多控制权令妥协空间极小。
- OPEC+应对：油价大跌可能促使OPEC+考虑减产或推迟增产，但内部对伊朗问题分歧仍在。
- 美联储风险：地缘冲突→油价上涨→通胀反弹，可能延缓降息预期；但需求疲软信号又支持宽松，政策两难。
关联路径
伊朗导弹袭击美军 / 美国报复 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 全球油价暴涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 风险资产抛售
胡塞武装攻击沙特油轮 / 红海航运中断 / 沙特出口受阻 / 亚洲炼厂抢油 / 现货溢价扩大
俄罗斯制裁新法案 / 俄油供应减少 / 欧佩克+减产博弈 / 全球能源紧张 / 地缘溢价持续
莱茵河水位新低 / 德国工业减产 / 欧元区GDP下修 / 欧央行鸽派预期 / 欧元走弱
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / ANTARA News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-29/10668229.shtml
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/world/middleeast/houthis-strike-saudi-tanker.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPWGtrSzI5WkxfcUtkYWZ3YlJUZTRaT2xFd3pqdmxLQVdXelgtcFNsYkpvanctY3E1bDF6cHFDSXV2TE1IeDZJWkk3T3k2QkUxM2V5WnhiV3FzR0pBQ2lLM1NCckVMT3p0NHhkOVpmTDlmekFZaDlIOHZQeWc2YWEzeVRONTgwWm43UjRPWA?oc=5
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260729/b94b6e251b544fcabc947b36214d6ec0/c.html
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/28/iran-and-oman-exchange-proposals-to-manage-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260728-oman-propose-%C3%A0-l-iran-un-m%C3%A9canisme-pour-la-gestion-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-proposes-temporary-hormuz-plan-182849423.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/oman-presents-iran-with-gulf-backed-plan-for-voluntary-fees-to-use-hormuz/article71278494.ece
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/iran-krieg-satellitenbilder-zeigen-ausmass-der-oelverschmutzung-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-a-431c96a7-8c7f-4925-8b12-8933bad6c576
- [10] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5669859/iran-oman-dan-arab-saudi-serukan-upaya-bersama-amankan-selat-hormuz
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-low-rhine-river-levels-could-push-economy-into-stagnation/a-78148371?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/643572-trump-us-iran-friendly-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxONnpyRjRlYWo1ZktJTDVtR3hTLWJLbWctRmJhd0Z6czBoQlEwUkRkZk1fd2wtQ0hLakpEMUhMZkNQOEdzVTR0SV9lQ2Q3TVJpNkFLdll5WmZBTFhqRlZpSE1BLVFQV1lsa0VpOXNPbHJ0TGdpeVMzMGFfV2lWaTI2YVdlSDFjbkdJblVoWXRvSHp3NWZSQnhMNUpVODB4cmJjdnVnVzEzZTFKUDF6TnpIMndKQ3hEN1c5aW9xMG05akZRcENlaHp6Qg?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPY0NzLVZWb1NJRW9INktxekFNVlFDWmdUZFZfdG5GQmdkM3ZJU015VDYxTm15Y0VHTElSckxvR3k2V1hZWW81SEFTRXZvNUhqN2RfOUJXSTZadjkzaUhhUFF4QzdrYVpZakcyZ3NpTWRkc2pKME9UZ3lsYm1GMTRWY20yUUxzeElhWDVDaDhWVDJ0b0ktVTVlNTA0c1BISmVqU1VTZG9pQ3A3VjdsVm8xd0Jpek9rSm56SlpjSzl3?oc=5
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260728-oman-presents-iran-with-gulf-backed-plan-to-ease-strait-of-hormuz-tensions
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/video/business/energy-environment/100000011050115/red-sea-blockade-oil-route.html
- [17] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/oman-presented-regional-mechanism-hormuz-065635571.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-29/10668215.shtml
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/28/iran-rejects-trump-frozen-funds-plan-warns-ships-of-hormuz-transit-ban?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/28/trump-says-good-chance-of-progress-in-iran-talks-what-we-know?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/saudi-arabia-says-shot-down-215248145.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/us/politics/senators-russia-sanctions-bill-graham.html
- [23] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-says-us-bombers-used-its-bases-to-strike-iran/article71278471.ece
2026-07-28
2026-07-28
进展要点
- 美联储新主席沃什面临是否在下次会议推动加息的重大决策（来源：NYT）。
- 特朗普对伊朗外交谈判若失败，可能重启‘强力军事行动’。
- 美国对80国新关税生效，可能引发贸易伙伴报复性措施。
- 卡塔尔和巴基斯坦继续调解美伊停火，但伊朗排除双边谈判。
关联路径
霍尔木兹关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 通胀上升
胡塞武装袭击 / 红海航运受阻 / 商品供应链延迟 / 贸易成本增加
特朗普关税 / 进口成本上升 / 消费者价格通胀 / 美联储政策两难
美伊谈判不确定性 / 地缘风险溢价波动 / 石油 / 黄金双向震荡
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The New York Times / ABC News / ANTARA News / Der Spiegel International / Global Issues News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPMFc4UGNrY3BXU25oZEd6MnZDRFlOVjRBalZDZWN1NHRNa0JhSVdDcmstZU9OSWVqLVFoNWp6TnVHLUg4MVpyMUxBaGoyNmF3U2ZLRFYxcXg1NHliR2pEaE9jQ01oNXhlTmhVVUtTdGtiS0FHT0pBMnZTQUJKQ3pSekFWZGdZd0dhWFRiMmVZOWUxSllCQmc?oc=5
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260727-yemen-says-ready-for-houthi-escalation-after-rebels-target-saudi-arabia
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260728/3217eeff59a24ae79d06710398282353/c.html
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/ukraine-russia-black-sea-attacks-push-wheat-prices-to-2-year-high
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/27/war-on-iran-phase-ii-day-16?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-it-still-controls-hormuz-not-involved-in-negotiations-with-the-us/article71274273.ece
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10667570.shtml
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-drone-attacks-iraq-iran.html
- [9] https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariffs-wallet/story?id=135050974
- [10] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5668343/saudi-cegat-dan-hancurkan-drone-iran-yang-targetkan-fasilitas-minyak
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-saudi-arabien-meldet-drohnenattacken-a-e9047c16-0d1a-40bc-9254-f804d5164dab
- [12] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/27/43684
- [13] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/us-iran-strikes-ease-two-142541067.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxPYmlyQkFMZnN6YUY2UzNCQ3ZPaGxiTjI4NWdkSUpYRmpsWmsyampCQjlLY1NZQ3lDbG1uX0YtMGhfMzNYNnNESEhyYlRIbUZGZDRsa2dYeWZDVlVEcWRYLWFHeDVpVFFtWl9wXzFDcUVqRE01MG9vSHRGejNHNjlJdVROLUFfbDZkY0U2NElnUXEzX0FFQ19sSHFaZXVUYjdOckRoYnk3cHVnNWtp?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE16SnRDZDYydVNWMnRSdHM3VldleXNaUUpzRTlhOXk2bjh2RTFuam9GTlE0bjZUYktsVlNtejhvWmV5Zm1ZUTBpdGJzVGtHalRGWlkwQXJ1M0FNOThHYk8zd0hvOUNOTEpSbDN2QlpJVC1xTFZ1Wmc?oc=5
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260727-saudi-arabia-says-it-intercepted-drones-from-iraq-as-houthis-target-oil-sites
- [17] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-was-hinter-der-ploetzlichen-kampfpause-stecken-koennte-a-f48adbe2-cb86-46c6-8901-08bd6750f452
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/business/the-feds-new-chairman-faces-his-biggest-test-yet.html
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/us/politics/iran-war-timeline.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/27/hopes-of-return-to-diplomacy-as-us-iran-hold-fire-for-third-day?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/red-sea-shipping-slows-after-houthi-hits-on-saudi-arabia/article71274313.ece
- [22] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5668467/airlangga-sebut-ri-masih-lobi-as-agar-tarif-sawit-dikecualikan
2026-07-27
2026-07-27
进展要点
- 美国特朗普政府暂停对伊打击为外交留空间，但参议员肯尼迪称特朗普支持每日打击，政策走向矛盾。
- 日本央行加息预期升温，可能提前行动，但需权衡日元贬值对出口的影响。
- OPEC+面临海湾内部分裂，阿联酋已退出OPEC，产量决策更加复杂。
关联路径
美伊暂停 / 原油风险溢价回落 / 缓和情绪 / 风险资产短暂反弹
霍尔木兹谈判失败 / 海峡中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀压力 / 央行鹰派
日元贬值 / 日本央行加息 / 亚洲流动性收紧 / 套利交易平仓
哈萨克斯坦出口中断 / 全球原油供给紧张 / 油价上涨 / 能源股受益
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / The Hindu / RT News / O Globo Politics / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727064751ZaW
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/us-and-iran-hit-pause-on-strikes-for-second-day?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-nakazav-pryzupynyty-udary-ssha-po-iranu-dlia-dyplomatychnykh-perehovoriv
- [4] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/25/iran-war-gulf-alliance-01012083?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/trading-asia/boj-early-rate-rise-bets-increase-as-yen-reaches-multidecade-low
- [6] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-e-ira-estendem-pausa-nos-ataques-enquanto-oma-realiza-negociacoes-sobre-ormuz.ghtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE4yUGQyOU5oLVZvX0t4bWI3dVo0R3ZaSHNoS0t1SEl0bjZHLVNTejIyeEVXMnZraDhBUE5kanFxYkU0ZHR2c2JEVzc0ZUR0MV9GMkg0U0IyRHYxdEw1Wi1FYUkzMnU4c3N4T3JwbUNB?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-halts-retaliatory-strikes-after-lull-in-us-attacks/article71270262.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643490-iran-us-backers-targets/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-suspendem-bombardeios-ao-ira-que-tambem-freia-ataques.ghtml
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666977.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sen-kennedy-says-trump-likes-184524762.html
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/khusyty-atakuvaly-naftovi-obiekty-saudivskoi-aravii-ssha-vpershe-za-dva-tyzhni-ne-zavdaly-udariv-po-iranu
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/what-lies-ahead-for-iran-as-scope-of-us-war-grows-beyond-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOcDY4MVdNa1ZJUDFsVkNzRDR6Y0oyZjQ0VW1wQVdaVXUxREJRejlSbC1NVTd3SGtxZkM3d1RpQ1VTbWFTRmJsQ1dZclhJQjU3R09NTjRsOWFDUkVjd1lRTVZaRHBfSlBtUEMybjVsVFhORVdzNnBNSFYxbnlDb2RwUzEtOHF5VDB6Qk9Nb1gwWV95eE4zOGcwbk90eFB2ZUc2WmJ4NEhPNExZUVVXWDJBNTlNTQ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFBzS0FfSkotRklRNDVHeW45TEFEM21nODZqUnctRkVUbm90dzR1eDk0M2RsWlV3SU5NRU9RNlYtdXNUbXJfZVJLVHNqRUkzRWF1NGUzTG5hVmxRVEpHaldlVzduTDhVcHNMcWtBdjhLakM1Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/freeze-the-conflict-drones-slow-kazakh-oil-flow-amid-russia-ukraine-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/643489-pentagon-eyeing-megaraid-iran-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260726215511eLk
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/radbez-oon-zberetsia-na-ekstrene-zasidannia-cherez-obstrily-suden-u-chornomu-mori-na-zapyt-ukrainy
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666973.shtml
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727053411Zdg
2026-07-26
2026-07-26
进展要点
- 美国对60国强迫劳动关税已生效，后续可能根据豁免调整扩大范围。
- 特朗普威胁对欧盟加征惩罚性关税，可能触发欧美贸易战。
- 中国明确反对美国单边关税，可能采取反制措施或诉诸WTO。
- 俄罗斯汽油出口禁令延至年底，将收紧全球汽油供应。
关联路径
美伊全面战争威胁 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 全球原油供应危机
胡塞红海袭击 / 航运保险取消 / 能源运输中断 / 油价飙升
美国对60国关税 / 进口成本上升 / 通胀预期升温 / 美联储政策收紧预期
黑海码头停摆 / CPC管道出口受阻 / 欧洲油气供应紧张
来源
China News Service / Kyiv Post / Yahoo News - World / A News / Verslo žinios / Index.hu - Külföld / Mehr News Agency / Kyiv Independent / Google News - World / ECNS Politics News / USTR Press Releases / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / El Mundo - International News / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81039
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/oil-price-surge-war-iran-225258637.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-26/10666595.shtml
- [4] https://www.anews.com.tr/americas/2026/07/25/trump-says-full-scale-war-with-iran-if-we-dont-get-100-of-what-we-want-report
- [5] https://www.vz.lt/logistika-ir-transportas/2026/07/24/ft-saudo-arabijos-kroviniams-raudonojoje-juroje-ribojamas-karo-rizikos-draudimas-587916
- [6] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/25/usa-iran-jemen-huszik-kozel-kelet-hajozas-voros-tenger-blokad-szaud-arabia-koolaj
- [7] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246494/IRGC-conducts-fresh-attacks-on-US-bases-in-Kuwait-Bahrain
- [8] https://kyivindependent.com/russias-escalating-port-attacks-choke-ukraines-grain-exports-as-industry-nears-crisis
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOOVpNZ2psN29sT085Yy0tT0xweWpLcTBRbUxaVlRGS1hJVFRHc3R0QjdlSWEybjlnNmtKYXM4WjQxaG9neGFqZkNrUEthVHJsQ2VEM0VEX2hJc2tIcHNZT0tEV3JQRUtrbk9YT0dGOGo0T0VVbUVkOVZaS29hWHRBcUw0QkJ4VjlSc2h6czhXWGRkT2xiMkJJUlBkcENSX0VjQndrSjJlT25vS2FFSVA4WE5B?oc=5
- [10] http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-24/detail-ihfhqwkz8170671.shtml
- [11] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2026/july/fact-sheet-ustr-section-301-action-response-failure-60-economies-ban-imports-produced-forced-labor
- [12] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/saudi-arabien-jemen-angriffe-100.html
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/07/25/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-trump-douchent-les-espoirs-d-apaisement-des-europeens_6732384_3234.html
- [14] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/25/6a64b258e9cf4a923a8b4598.html
- [15] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/las-claves-de-los-nuevos-aranceles-de-trump-que-suponen-a-que-paises-afectan-y-cuando-entran-en-vigor.html
- [16] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/26/russia-says-its-ban-on-gasoline-exports-will-be-extended-to-end-of-2026
- [17] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/donald-trump-egyesult-allamok-europai-unio-vizsgalat-vamok
- [18] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/fekete-tenger-roman-part-tartalyhajo-tamadas-orosz-ukran-haboru
- [19] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246487/IRGC-targets-large-US-ammunition-depot-in-Kuwait-with-drones
- [20] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81066
- [21] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81042
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/trump-vows-to-punish-iran-for-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-oil-surges-over-100-133244120.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE0wSWJENDJQQ2lraVM1bFRtRkZZWk84QTQ0VGVzWFo1NDJOdmNyLVF4LTBLd0g2VkRPV094NU5rSktRQWwtYmdSYmxZeXBOSXFDczNpWU1qNHZ3dk96YjdEbUFRT2h3bUFm?oc=5
- [24] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-steelworkers-manufacturers-and-farmers-praise-president-trumps-tariff-action-combat-forced
- [25] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ustr-takes-action-forced-labor-section-301-investigations
- [26] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/25/l-arabie-saoudite-et-les-houthistes-au-seuil-d-une-nouvelle-guerre-au-moyen-orient_6731930_3210.html
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/trump-impone-un-sistema-comercial-caotico-en-su-tercera-ronda-arancelaria.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOWV84eEVlNkpwN2YyRjV4SFpPd05QQk5pVjY1dFB3NUJNUHFYQ2JNWjN0ZUw1blJldTJYelJJR3VfTFRaR0hNemljRnpMLTVTeE0wejZSNWt5WG9iRU1rMll5NlZLLWd3aW1faTViRlVTVU1GRzRWeUNFR29uMDU0czdONkNMcXVWT2lkN2hWLXdZVXNkQlVmTlJFNGdLRkp2ZDQ5Tko1VWh6TjNxOTMzNmNWenNISzYtLWtPR0kzX3hVek0xS3NSQ1N6QVhxUHpNc2xGNUduak5aNHVi?oc=5
2026-07-25
2026-07-25
进展要点
- 美国可能加强对伊朗核设施的打击力度，进一步升级军事行动。
- 特朗普政府或加速启动欧盟301关税报复清单。
- 各国央行面临滞胀困境：能源冲击推升通胀，而贸易战抑制增长。
- 韩国、日本等主要贸易伙伴可能通过外交渠道寻求关税豁免。
关联路径
美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹 / 红海封锁 / 油价飙升 / 通胀加剧 / 央行紧缩预期
美国关税 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 供应链中断 / 经济衰退风险
长端利率上升 / 金融条件收紧 / 风险资产估值承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Global Issues News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBjUnVoSV82cTc3bXdyQWsybzFVMXl1SDZCaDUwU0NNaUw4TE85cnBGai1ycUxyUTlBM1c1YXpvNXA1bFczV2M3R2pJZjBYMTZ1Vm54LUNZb3BhQQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/643432-iran-strikes-us-bases-bahrain/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260725/b3539910469346489a70ae316f6eacbc/c.html
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260724-l-iran-revendique-des-attaques-de-drones-contre-le-bahre%C3%AFn-la-jordanie-et-le-kowe%C3%AFt
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapon.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/oman-talking-with-tehran-on-hormuz-as-us-and-iran-continue-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260725000200315
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/shows/watch-iran-chokes-hormuz-houthis-hold-the-red-sea-what-happens-to-oil-prices-business-matters/article71263015.ece
- [9] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/24/43668
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-yemen-s-houthis-deny-they-closed-bab-al-mandeb-strait/live-78093040?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxOLTE3MVJMNG1NX0poY3YyV2RqdmVlMU82US1NWGZ1cFBvQjF4V21IcU5lUXZ6RWNzcmdibGM2SmJMY010MGZOVXY3ZlN6anRHeU5uYlVrQ05SZjh5YXcyUExxTW5nY1ktMWM4WjNTMkRvOUpaOXRUWm1QQTdiUVp5RQ?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQd2tBdjIzSWNNMXZMd0hFNjRqS2l6YUdXS1NuajQ4S2RKRS1FTnRSRDFjVXZtd1U3TWVwNjNBYnhncm13N19QX0F0YVBMVV9GUy1XZlR0c3c5a0Y1ZU1qaHJjeUg2TFVDLVFYR0MtRUExdFE1MHNTVUtQdkMwakR0dHpnQmJoSUlmMXZvRm43Zw?oc=5
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260724-us-pummels-iranian-sites-tehran-targets-regional-bases-stationing-us-forces
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/643447-trump-threatens-eu-google/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/business/trump-interest-rates-bonds.html
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/business/iran-war-tariffs-economy.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/extremely-disappointing-us-trade-partners-respond-to-trumps-new-tariffs?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260724-moyen-orient-treizi%C3%A8me-nuit-cons%C3%A9cutive-de-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-contre-l-iran
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/643427-us-forced-labor-tariffs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/saudis-strike-yemens-houthi-held-hodeida-rebel-media?traffic_source=rss
2026-07-24
2026-07-24
进展要点
- 美联储面临油价飙升带来的通胀压力，降息预期可能进一步推迟
- 美国贸易代表办公室可能扩大301条款适用范围至更多国家或行业
- 中国商务部表态推动降税，但美方加征行动使谈判前景不明
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹 / 红海航运受阻 / 原油供给缺口 / 油价突破100美元 / 全球通胀预期升温
美国对60国加征关税 / 进口成本上升 / 企业利润率压缩 / 股市回调 + 消费者价格上行
油价飙升 + 关税叠加 / 全球滞胀风险上升 / 央行政策两难 / 风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Global Issues News / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Nikkei Asia / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/23/oil-surges-past-100-in-a-first-since-may-as-middle-east-conflicts-rage?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://abcnews.com/Business/global-oil-prices-cross-100-barrel-iran-war/story?id=135017063
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260723/0f90821d646e4f88b082e431e36649c2/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2djnzrqk2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/23/43655
- [6] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/us-tarifs-on-goods-imported-from-india/article71259860.ece
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-24/10665365.shtml
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-to-impose-forced-labor-tariffs-on-many-trading-partners/a-78092136?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/trump-rebuilds-tariff-wall-with-new-rates-on-60-countries
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9co-tech/20260723-%C3%A9tats-unis-de-nouveaux-droits-de-douane-visent-plusieurs-partenaires-commerciaux
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260724000500315
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/643402-germany-gas-russian-imports/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPRkJKVWFoWEl3NG02VG5ZNFBDNl9BdDZ4YnNKVVpzMkhUdTItWUJpMFJkQ2FiOV9Rd0Z3SVozNVYxbnItZnRtT1JIRS0zVmN6X0UtSjVvanEtMEFNTFNaNVJkS0NOcXNJb2o1bW51ZG5LOE5wNVB1bk41S1lqZXYtcV9uLWZhLXkwVW5icEFwdXJmbUp2TGpJNXRvZ1ZQODdlQUY5bUtidnBiQVFuVjdRUQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260723/4d6508a52d0140d39f0eddc4050ad1c3/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-24/10665359.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-24/10665361.shtml
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/23/us-war-on-iran-the-110-billion-price-tag?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://abcnews.com/Business/trump-set-impose-sweeping-tariffs-60-trade-partners/story?id=135020049
- [19] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgj61j6l08o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/23/trump-warns-of-biggest-strikes-yet-on-iran-as-tehran-lashes-out-across-gulf?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260723-trump-announces-double-digit-tariffs-on-60-countries-over-forced-labour-concerns
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-unveils-new-tariffs-on-60-partners-as-trump-rebuilds-trade-agenda/article71259821.ece
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260724/56dac1ca144d4d808f40fbc3d18b455d/c.html
- [24] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260724000900315
- [25] https://www.rt.com/news/643400-senate-iran-war-powers-resolution/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5oVlRJbjJ3d1BLRjJGR2hrclg2ckp6YVZ3Z25oa3dScWVfcTAxN0YtRi1EZE9yck1yeGp4X2VxRldBeE9wSGQ2SThfSWs0MzdvUmZ5ZEFQX1hUUQ?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNdFJSZkxtVzE0eXhsZDFLTXQzS3VfN3JtM3Fnc2hJalVabFBTOFpzRzg4bllIOUtOT3I0Y3JsZmxHUnVtb0txczBlVV9fZWw3Zy1Eem1NNVlud1VNVElCZFp6Q0FYM01MLXlibHBQNzNFVXJsOGZJckpEdkJ6bmFabGN1YVp3ZTNNZHZ0S3pFS0NWVl9NUXdYT1dXZlhlWHRGNXVmNEJMNA?oc=5
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/us-threatens-major-military-punishment-for-houthi-attacks/live-78077811?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
2026-07-23
2026-07-23
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策：特朗普政府坚持“极限施压”，鲁比奥表示保护航运但保留谈判空间。
- 伊朗强硬回应：若美袭击桥梁/电站，将实施对等打击；核设施被攻击则扩大报复范围。
- 全球央行可能因油价上涨而推迟降息甚至加息，关注下周美联储决议声明。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀与利率上升 / 经济增长放缓
胡塞武装红海袭击 / 红海航运中断 / 油轮绕行好望角 / 运输成本增加 / 能源价格上行
伊朗导弹打击美军基地 / 美军伤亡 / 特朗普报复誓言 / 冲突螺旋升级
世行下调全球增长预期 / 市场避险情绪 / 资金流向避险资产
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / The Hindu / RT News / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-threatens-bridges-over-hormuz-strait-attacks/live-78060128?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBKRnpNX3V5Z2dURFpxRHdnNllTZlBRSVRkSlNjUTNNQ1NQazhXR0pRQUdBQU9YZmJzaEF6bUhJMGNab3V3N3FKTVZJbTYzTktmZjIzQjUxczlXQTRsZVBITm1IN2VTWVpBbU9LbjF3bDVlV05PcWZz?oc=5
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260723/cccde3291f444e1db8c252fd62a2646a/c.html
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260722009600315
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-23/10664661.shtml
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/22/yemens-houthis-claim-attack-on-two-saudi-oil-tankers?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260722-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-menace-de-bombarder-centrales-et-ponts-iraniens
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-us-will-destroy-bridge-or-power-plant-for-each-iranian-attack-in-strait-of-hormuz/article71255012.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643344-iran-us-dark-night/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0n127lpzgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-us-will-destroy-a-bridge-or-power-plant-for-every-iranian-attack-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/article71254267.ece
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPaEFEd29MdFp6QVAwX3hVTjh0VkdpWWJuM2ZwcUtMOUlYN0pWckFnMG53aDBQUEVmOEVjXzBlUHZubkRjYndBX2Z3elJ2RXp2VEJEcDNLUWdPUUxiblhDTEliNVZZQWliZGc4Tnk0SjAtQ2Y1SzEzM2J0OEhuZDFsSjlIT0tlNDBwSjVvUNIBkgFBVV95cUxQMUhlRWFFaWN2c2pqQTRHbXVtTW14X1R5emRSM3pkQmdhTU9iQnBLbXVlTTRqbEFQUTdXUktTZ1J6MEE3VjdqWU01QWdOY0VBRmRXLWNaenZ3a3EzWUJacHZVOEk3NzYtT2xKYlR5cDlIWTdrZWRsNGhaR3RTSEZKanNnS2ZBaGFJNWtXMldFRUozdw?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/22/iranian-missiles-show-deadly-precision-amid-us-iran-war-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260722-trump-threatens-iranian-infrastructure-over-strait-of-hormuz-attacks
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/22/trump-iran-will-pay-a-big-price-for-us-troop-deaths?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNdjdfcnFmNzMwSTFCYWFYRXZzOGtwSlpwM2ljMXh5QU5LZXFGTnJyUER0UDhyYnl2S2FjS1dPMzZ2S3gyRHBhQk9yV3RWOHRDS3pmYUVLWldkdHhvZWFFM08tWDNreUtrelJETjlRQVdLd09LRlRRNWF4YlB3YzVZT0xrdDJyVHNWN0NKcE4xdjFQVF85dWNGV3pSSHRyS0QtTGRGR1pFUkNjcjg?oc=5
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-22/10664645.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-22/10664644.shtml
- [19] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260722/3b45144435834a33ac4d304e862f02ce/c.html
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-rubio-outlines-us-strategy-on-iran-after-fresh-strikes/article71253951.ece
2026-07-22
2026-07-22
进展要点
- 美国贸易代表本周可能宣布对60国征收10-12.5%新关税，替代即将到期的10%全球关税。
- 特朗普对加拿大加征50%关税，30天后生效，加拿大已准备300亿加元报复关税。
- 特朗普暗示中期选举不影响对伊战争计划，绕开国会推进军事行动。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升
美国对加拿大加征关税 / 北美贸易链条断裂 / 制造业成本上升 / 股市下跌
美国全球新关税 / 贸易成本上升 / 全球经济增长预期下调 / 风险资产抛售
胡塞红海封锁 / 沙特石油出口受阻 / 全球石油供应紧张 / 能源价格新一轮上涨
来源
China News Service / RT News / Google News - World / The New York Times / ABC News / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / ANTARA News / France 24 #3 / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/643312-us-iran-strikes-major-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQcE1qSkpPVGFzd0I0UUlwaTM3TnVUT3gtZF9XMDBUTlFsWU1wNGJRMEMwNFYteVdqd1c5dFVTdi1UOGQ0NjlpLTBEbFRVQTJlc2FUbHBsNmxzX3ljN25WYnZrS0M5OHU2Z1dGWTZFdDgtVnYwcC1jWWxKcTVWNDVKaDdxaE5wLV8yWW9tY2JRdndfeGw0T1FjS1hMa2d3ajV0LUtiQVBtR1d5Y2ZQ0gGyAUFVX3lxTE5TRW5aRGItcGZRZ0E0MDF3VEpBWE93Y0dvaEc2cDlCTGRzTGlJeExrY0k2MVNPRmtZSVlud1JFcDlYMWp2R1JrakV2Y05xZ0ZZZnJpZGVYQUszM0tZSEtjZklESjNXOEVHN1ZSYjlfX21LQXFuSV9MODJEUHpucGd6aXdnbmQxenlmZ2FoUTU4RGxnUzYwMzFFUjVyQlhiMTA4S3FOQnV
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-22/10663946.shtml
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/21/business/oil-red-sea-houthis.html
- [5] https://abcnews.com/Politics/pickaxe-mountain-trump-us-hit-iranian-nuclear-site/story?id=134957036
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/21/43631
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/21/kuwaitis-ration-electricity-after-iranian-strikes-hit-power-grid?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4dzq3x3e1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5659687/trump-berpotensi-kenakan-tarif-baru-atas-impor-dari-60-negara
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260721-blocage-d%C3%A9troits-ormuz-et-bab-el-mandeb-sc%C3%A9nario-si%C3%A8ge-maritime-golfe-persique
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/business/indian-bonds-come-under-pressure-as-crude-prices-surge-over-90-a-barrel/article71250245.ece
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iranian-forces-target-bahrain-kuwait-100532363.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/643285-trump-canada-tariffs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQT0Jlc0k2UzBpUjR0R3ZWd2NKVzZVM2F6azd0VWk0WlYySWhpTU8zc2V2NTVWc3hWRzBYSUk2LXNTSzhoUnF1VUotZ1FhdTlMVE53TmtEUllYSThLU3hSU3hIRGRxZHFoaFZXM2VReGdxNGVVcGVOYXh4NTcwdHBpWkZqLWtCTHhOdjFIbWhJcExkcUo3amxFa0x3N3VadTVqbXh2LUxQYXV1Y05IM0N4QlVlUjNmWHM?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQb0xzV3c3ME85X3MxZVhoNHA4NUlna2tQcGNJRHMyNnBNaFpyQ1NTemVhTlVaMWRIZkg5ZHhnWDNZNWxoWGN1dEJrM1hQMm9SV05pMDI5SUQ0cUZOVlJSZF9VeVdMZDc0aVBhWXZjV3N4YkNacTRLTjZBZHM2Skl3MzRZUTl1V2s?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/21/us-eyes-new-tariffs-as-existing-trade-duties-near-expiration?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/21/business/asia-strategic-oil-reserves.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/21/world/canada/trump-carney-trade-tariffs.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/21/saudi-condemns-houthi-blockade-how-will-the-rest-of-the-world-be-impacted?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-21/10663927.shtml
2026-07-21
2026-07-21
进展要点
- 美国对加拿大50%关税将于30天后生效，关注加拿大反制措施
- 特朗普政府可能进一步扩大对伊朗军事行动，国会授权争议持续
- 胡塞武装海上封锁可能引发沙特及联军反击，红海局势恶化
关联路径
美军打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡威胁 / 原油供应风险 / 油价上涨
美国对加拿大加征关税 / 贸易报复 / 供应链中断 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗导弹击中约旦美军基地 / 中东冲突扩大 / 避险资产受追捧
胡塞武装封锁沙特 / 红海航运中断 / 能源运输成本上升
来源
China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / BBC News (Business) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / USTR Press Releases / Global News / France 24 #3 / Yahoo News - World / ABC News / BBC News (Top) / Evening Standard Politics / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-21/10663261.shtml
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-fresh-strikes-as-trump-vows-revenge/live-78042474?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/briefing/trump-canada-tariffs-britain-new-leader.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4dzq3x3e1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOUDFlQmExclRHUjZSLUxfYUJWVG9OQTJWZkphS1JyRzJDLUw5eVhwN0NQWHZCa1puR1h1TXRXQmpNRmIxUk5IV2JQSXNKSThZSEVveXFSaUZXZkV1NTA5MlM4Zmt4RGVFR3pacmNpTWRqX0ZBeGZUYm04Y1hqbTVGWU1YYlFmQQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/20/aje-onl-nf_war-on-iran-back-to-square-one-200726?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-president-trump-imposing-section-338-tariffs-canada
- [8] https://globalnews.ca/news/11973157/donald-trump-tariffs-canada-50-per-cent
- [9] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9co-tech/20260720-etats-unis-canada-50-droits-de-douane-produits-canadien-vin-hockey-ciment-commerce-trump
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-imposes-50-tariff-canadian-210143917.html
- [11] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-slaps-additional-50-tariff-canadian-goods/story?id=134929955
- [12] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25wg2x26do?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-iran-andy-burnham-pete-hegseth-strait-of-hormuz-b1290703.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-21/10663263.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-21/10663264.shtml
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/us-imposes-new-50-tariff-on-many-canadian-goods/a-78042667?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQSnhXZVhURmd3ZGlYWXZfYUNSV3lOWkVuUUZPYlA0TVhUQmE5aDRUMVM5SncyVnBGdEdnN3dGMFlCUndzWG1jazFiUjhCU0hwaTJfVXloemlVLTRlcnNOUGdrREZ6SkVtVlliZ0dCVEV5Xzg1dFFObGN4ZGhNMF9iVGRFRDFHclJwMkNNc3RGRFQzdXJGaVI4LWlObVFEN0tlbHBQb3NWWVVyUmVGd3JmS2hpRU5fNm8?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/economy/20260720-trump-signs-order-imposing-new-50-tariffs-on-certain-canadian-goods
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/business/economy/trump-tariffs-canada.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE1JZUpRMFpqU3dSbWpJdVdNUDZQV3pVU0JrdTIzWGxZYkhBQjh3dHRpZERBejVBZWVnVjloOUMxRFN5WHJoYVU2ampqdlRfZ1BkaFVCbzd3?oc=5
- [21] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly52xzjd3qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/us/politics/gop-trump-iran-war.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260720-bases-am%C3%A9ricaines-attaqu%C3%A9es-par-l-iran-la-jordanie-est-devenue-une-cible-de-choix
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-2-oil-tankers-strait-135812198.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/20/houthis-announce-maritime-blockade-on-saudi-arabia?traffic_source=rss
2026-07-20
2026-07-20
进展要点
- 美国能源部长称对伊朗军事行动将持续至实现目标，无停火迹象。
- 美国USTR对巴西关税7月22日生效，后续可能增加商品清单。
- 美国可能加强对伊朗石油制裁执行，尤其是针对影子舰队和第三方买家。
- 海湾国家面临选边压力，科威特、巴林遭袭后可能要求美国提供更多保护。
关联路径
美伊互攻 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航量骤降 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策紧缩压力
CPC油轮遭袭 / 哈萨克斯坦石油出口暂停 / 欧洲原油供应收紧 / 裂解价差扩大
美国对巴西关税 / 乙醇 / 农产品贸易流转向 / 巴西报复风险 / 新兴市场资产承压
伊朗影子舰队运油至中国 / 美国制裁执行风险 / 人民币与在岸市场波动
来源
China News Service / POLITICO Europe / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Yahoo News - World / USTR Press Releases / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Global News / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Korea Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-iran-strikes-war-peace-deal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662645.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/19/business/oil-prices-stocks-gas.html
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260719-middle-east-live-us-launches-strikes-to-punish-iran-after-troops-killed
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/cherez-ormuzku-protoku-prokhodyt-blyzko-dvokh-tretyn-dovoiennoho-obsiahu-perevezen-ministr-enerhetyky-ssha
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-completed-latest-023955394.html
- [7] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-loggers-and-industry-leaders-applaud-president-trumps-bold-tariff-action-regarding
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk417jp83po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9tZERHLXprM1drb05FU0RWV19EeDluM2ZSRkFEb09pNDdOZzlwc3R4b2VSdFNmdHlfWUlhLTN6X3VpQ0ZCTndfd2tDQXByamdpbElxMW1VUmtZRzlGdHV5WVE2aG5mT0x5QU81S1FXNmc?oc=5
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11971735/us-airstrikes-iran-war-continues
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/irans-shadow-fleet-rushed-6-billion-of-oil-to-china-during-brief-us-truce-report/articleshow/132495532.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/19/kuwaiti-power-plant-ablaze-as-iran-hits-us-gulf-allies?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260719/us-strikes-irans-revolutionary-guard-over-attack-that-killed-troops-in-jordan?utm_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-iran-blown-past-red-093545840.html
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/escalation-fears-mount-as-us-hits-bridges-and-iran-strikes-desalination-plant-150747882.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxNQjFsc1o5b28zLW5TaGc1eWFHWmJfLUpxOGZnOGRRV1BYNm9SYWlKZU9qN3ozSG42cmRBU2p1MHJQN1JvbEpyd1JOc2pCMmNqY0pUbWJMdDhyQVRUYzFSNjBQakhXRl83VkhoX0VuSm1PeDRVRlhIRENBWG9CLW52MVBxQWhaTnllMllDUXZuQmwzTnRhYU5hMmxMSXI1bWlkeGp3dHFweFRGRi1fTjk1UXotT3k0NGdKM2VEc2FIanNuelIzaTF0QWRB?oc=5
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-says-iran-missile-towards-jordan-s-aqaba-intercepted
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNVkZ5QXo1N2hOeXZuODFkalM2aVg4bjNlX0p4UHRzM0FLb3VBbzBKeFRGeVZCdENGMEFKRndFXzdTaDFTazgtczZnZDRBZWRHQjdHTjg3MHF1MjF3blhaM0pINlhCeGxPZkJDVTBYTkkyY0FPQjFpZEp0N3RzRFNSMkJBMFRxV3NCcmZpc256X0I1MlRUelMtc0g1RdIBoAFBVV95cUxQbkZxaDI5R0M0elRWcEpiTjhNeXJnQ0NJSW9VNFhTQ2MydlF1M2c0azUxbThYcksyZDMxYkZhcG40VGwySDh1VXdoS29sT1RNdEpLSnZfMTA3QmpweW1NYlhRVmVieWQ2YU1zbzl6TWJ5d0k1S3VHLTBRYUdzMkdyYTdkdDJOWFlWM1VHcVdmSFF6NmlLXzFCb0FwVXJhTEdD?oc=5
- [19] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/19/chris-wright-strait-hormuz-iran-01004359?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662633.shtml
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662632.shtml
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/kuwait-bahrain-respond-to-iranian-attacks-amid-growing-escalation
2026-07-19
2026-07-19
进展要点
- 美国可能继续扩大对伊朗的空袭范围，目标延伸至能源基础设施。
- 伊朗可能发动更多报复性袭击，包括攻击海湾国家设施。
- 美国海军封锁伊朗港口将持续，直至伊朗屈服或政权更迭。
关联路径
军事升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断 / 原油价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
伊朗袭击美军基地 / 美国报复 / 冲突范围扩大 / 地区安全恶化
美国海军封锁 / 伊朗石油出口归零 / 全球市场供需失衡
地震破坏 / 委内瑞拉石油减产 / 进一步收紧供应
来源
China News Service / El País Internacional / El Mundo - International News / Google News - World / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / The Daily Beast / Times of India / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-16/estados-unidos-bombardea-el-norte-de-iran-y-estrecha-el-cerco-sobre-ormuz.html
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/18/6a5b1360e9cf4a296b8b4590.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQbS1jN0tZcUtrbk9GU3RKeUxqTHM1Qk5DUDF1VDBVOUVqaVp4QV8xWGhEMmtFV3JRRDc1SXlxalZwcElvUlBXQk13R1NPdW91eUFNRF9UT3JRM3ZHTC03a2ZaZmg0Z2tJdXdCRjVMUml0eWtTSWFLU2U5WGxIMHBNSG1hb2dTS3VLak0zVXdZdHhKY1duRml2MW9Ea0xxVlU?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260718-l-iran-attaque-deux-tankers-dans-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-apr%C3%A8s-des-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/19/usa-kuendigen-nach-tod-von-soldaten-vergeltungsschlaege-an
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/643218-us-iran-worldwide-travel-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662250.shtml
- [8] https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-goes-golfing-as-iran-kills-american-troops
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-military-death-toll-in-iran-war-rises-to-16-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan/articleshow/132486886.cms
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-targets-iranian-bridges-energy-143455368.html
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-zwei-us-soldaten-in-jordanien-getoetet-mojtaba-khameneidroht-mit-unvergesslichen-lektionen-a-a227d94e-82a9-46b3-9499-9f7fcdb7f5e6
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/18/damage-visible-at-iran-bridges-and-water-plant-after-us-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/us-troops-killed-missing-iran-war-jordan-base-b3017480.html
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/world/middleeast/us-iran-war-strikes-bridges-bandar-abbas.html
- [15] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8nynv8ze8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-18/iran-suspending-commitments-to-deal-with-u-s-attacks-continue
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPRW1HM0tnNnRlejk2WUp0LURrTzA2RERyQUZvZ3g3SGRCeVJWQUtYUl8zbWZQSzlkSDc0WmdLWlY1VTFmTG1DejlFbnV0ejNGbFNkQ2tfdU96dTlsRHI4Z1RsbG9NM2R6TXlENU55RmVnZVR2Umk2Y3o0MWw3bUJnVXI0UmE1Zw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260718-khamenei-threatens-unforgettable-lessons-two-us-troops-killed-in-iranian-attack
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/643205-two-us-service-members-killed-iranian-retaliatory-strikes-pentagon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxOQlZySDRLbXY3eGhXOU92Rlh2ajE1cmJPN1poeE9zdlpvR3p5VEhBSVFXd21BMUFZTHNmN0NFREVIc21ZdXdNUEdTV3lKd0oyazJzTzVmcy1rTzFWNmVOM05peHFqN1k5bWdObG04aTRlTHhLWjBmMVRLeWM5bG5BcGZzNDJ1ZzM5NDRnMTdWZDdaaXFOblBldFlJTC1CVkhTRVd5SXN4V1l4VlnSAbABQVVfeXFMTVc4bEVGdUpsRzlhRm5wd2ZiZ2x3QVlRU29XNDQtVnJ6VGdTNnE2U0dlbUxYekpfdXljUWZtTVQ5NjNzNExHOGZHUl9yTWUyLW94TklIaGZ6S0dPWmpCTG0yYXVSaDdsOFUzZ1hNWDNyeVRXSENoaXQ4RG5IZ2MxdTVzX2FhcGRlSVZkUWdkZXdNLXByTHpWUndyVEdjY254ai1rUlNmcGZ
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/18/us-military-says-two-service-members-killed-in-iranian-strike-in-jordan?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/18/what-to-expect-after-the-us-reimposes-naval-blockade-on-irans-ports?traffic_source=rss
2026-07-18
2026-07-18
进展要点
- 美联储面临油价传导的通胀压力，9月加息概率可能重新评估。
- 美国可能加大对伊朗石油出口的封锁力度，同时推动替代管道建设。
- 中国稀土出口限制可能触发WTO诉讼或美欧联合反制。
- 联合国海事机构警告航运成本上升，可能推动多国海军扩大护航范围。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡航运中断 / 原油供应缺口 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期强化
中国稀土出口限制 / 关键原材料短缺 / 西方制造业成本上升 / 相关产业盈利下调
美伊军事升级 / 海湾基础设施受损 / 能源生产与出口受阻 / 能源价格波动
索马里海盗 + 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼厂 / 全球柴油市场供给紧张 / 成品油裂解价差扩大
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #3 / ABC News / ANTARA News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOU2lCWUtlZ2xEN3lYTlRkYVdOUkR1TzM4UENrMmVYUS1wVTJDMG9CRjFSMU5DRUVpVFZidDNuMHNRMjR6c0dua3hZUzhia01RN0tDU0VGVWYtWWlzVTZZMWlPcmtTa3JwX05zSW54Zl9zakJRd0ZBZTZKQTM4Q3lMYkxJajJ2akE4RW5BdzFfdDJGRU0xSUhnR19PNElLLW9ENjZpMEI0bnlmaVBwSk5obWRWS3FSZElxblVGaWUyNGc4UQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/iranian-forces-missiles-and-drones-fired-at-us-targets-in-gulf-states?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/business/strait-hormuz-iran-oil-prices.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-18/10661819.shtml
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260718/fece6c9835bd4a85a767e238b4052709/c.html
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-curbs-endanger-050616544.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260717-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-iran-infrastructures-civiles-prises-pour-cible-kowe%C3%AFt-qatar
- [8] https://abcnews.com/video/134842971
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5654716/iran-gempur-fasilitas-militer-as-di-oman-suriah-yordania
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOdklMSnhYQmNTWnBFZ3JGTkRkckE1RTg1QVBpd3hWb291ZGsxSGNqSlF2VGtxWWtIdWtzY2VGUDZ1eFBxN0RZb0huWFZ3U2FoaWtBVTZ1MmQtWFZGOVFncW1nVW9uaGhfd1lZZXlVUmcyZVdFektMajJSTVhXYk50a0pEbFI1RFBPQ3Y00gGQAUFVX3lxTE1xSEFicjl2X29zZ1IxQ1NONUNycjlJbDlkRTd0UWM5cjA2eU9oczE3OEg5cEVzcEd5ZTlveEV5aVZ4MjB5c0hqVW9SaklKLTJrMEpSMHlPRWtHMDR6YUFPalg5el9ISTM3SmRpSW1XbW04eFBGS1JZXzBQVE1jVlVvRFd5OWdSVU0yMVZDeWFlSA?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/us-launches-seventh-straight-night-of-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPc2ZkclBjdExUQmlrZURuWWltMFBvUmFEN3VVSkZDT0Y0ckZUZXRCU2pFV2NKeWUtek5IQ3Z5dUVkQzFOSHczUFVDT19fc0FBTUZWNGVRZUJVY216Rk05RkwyVklqTXlxTzZVczIyYjZINlRTZVpmVmFyRkVzcHpfallaeDRWR2tNeVVvdDZBYkttRjFUNHI00gGcAUFVX3lxTFBtUFFBeloxLXJKUXdIWkJTSHBoWERCNkV3WlN4OWFuaWIxQWJlWnBjcVYyUng0VDdkc21rMk90czUzdnd2ekJEOVUwbWFTLU9ja25LTDRteEJpaXhXVnVHTWFFZXlLNWlvODRIRUxlYW0zcWFwSzBxSWJSSUFYQnFQSFRKMy1kN1JTZ09GcE1WRnZlczV5ZVlxd2FweQ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/suspected-somali-pirates-seize-tanker-near-yemen-amid-wave-of-hijackings?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260717-civilian-infrastructure-hit-as-us-and-iran-escalate-attacks-across-the-middle-east
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260717-attaques-iraniennes-au-qatar-des-frappes-pour-punir-l-arm%C3%A9e-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [16] https://abcnews.com/International/iran-hit-3-bases-hosting-us-assets-latest/story?id=134815868
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNV19JQjNsbG9UTjhwaFJDdU9waGppMDRfenJsUmJWNFczUERHV0lIMFR1Z28zalN3UzVlaUx6dHVCc0lBU1g4Y1hic19NLWc0UkFLSUxFdksxV09GM0R5QlhON252RHFwb3B5MVNlaUJoX0pPNFFtbUpPVUg2d20tYjV4MGlvSnNwc0Nib01jMGg?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPVEI2eGZFYnBWb2RZWU4yZERtYmVSMVdLeVk0UzJWOVp2bFRiVHFRQlpMaGwzQy15b1JsZlpfbU1ZRC0wNUZudldSdlRocWtueC1xekxieTZQQXdBMFY4Z1B1ZHlwWGFPaHdkM2FxaFhQekxrWVQ0WHJFdnhQZE4tTEkwdHFoSHhzVzV0TEtIZWFwRXNBMXFfLTlMLTFzMDY1Smc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/17/can-the-us-and-iran-reach-a-lasting-deal-to-end-the-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUnhZMXNZSF9WWDFpVFJJWURlcnpUbjVJR0d4RWpkMXVGd0RfVVFhN3FRQ0M4Zk5nRmo3cVd1ZmFnajNzU2xvd2ZnRWlUUmNkTTlxWThwNThQWkJubG5aVmozTFllVmdLZk5xeHNsSHV0STFkOHZnZmZGVllnMlZFS1VkMzMyUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBQMXN4ZXNiODlXYWFTakk0MmFJZC1COWRISlM5azVsYVZXWHNqV242eVFPdFNVcUtxODlVSndoTHdrdFlld29hS3JlMzVqR0tFSFNGanE1dXhNakxoTmwtZnRTRmFoNVhsVzhSNnVGTdIBdEFVX3lxTE1SMFRwN01INEh6b1BrbVU3MkI0amVfT1ltdldYd205SGtsSVFyVGh3NDNYQU0tcEdxeGZkb0lLNUJ2czJ4QXpXZXkwOUZWSWotamU4dmFoanM3cC1zcy1iVEFONUQtYzNzWnFLMzc5cDAwSHRz?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5vUktnR1c2bm80dDNYdHBidEo0cTQzUTdSYlZvZzU3YVNVM0FaekJLazZsY3djX3dwWTNRX01sQTZfYnF6MGlhbjh3Wll6eENCSkJTRzFLZTc5dU41enNlZ0ZIb0JwX2ZZ?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE1kVloyRVRzdnA0Ulk3R1AxaTNtWDMyTHdWQXlZOU8zb2hjaXZEblFnQUptai04Y3pSUlFxSURpWS0tU1hwNFdnMndjMlotMUJQUVZ2NmdOZ0t6czZXZk1YRTU0dnhMY3lEeVhlX29aUQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9CRTdoVUhnVjkxYTZVWXJCdXRnWXVSZGkyeXJiOEg0MzRzYk9JWkQtbDFPZ3BxSVZMdTVxOG92aEg4YXo1dVdMcG1QNVFVSWJtT0dCU0xFUTY4ekZTYnJzV0szUC10UTlEY1JHRlRB?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPODlwMjZYMFpNSExQbzlXYjF1UFhtMHF2aGR2ZkVZckxNSDJsdncydGtOV3ptMlBOX29HRnF6QWpfbWMxNnZ2UVVzb0ZDVjZLS1NpWlE1VG1ER2NUcm1aODBKQkVXRVRNazRVSThpVk9uSWRlcWNlOHpWdVhWT1Q4N3JmejNYdE9nNUp5LVFWYmhRa1dfcXZYMy1QQkJUSWh3cl9wcldR?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNekpxMWZGMkpySHZVZzZCbHhBZ2JVMXJZbF9nRlI1Z2FVQ2VaQ2FpeTBVaWdMNzlGcHlLelNnNHdMR0pGdDBNaGhYemxjSmtsOFBJR2l3X1NWLU1Yb0QtX2k3RTJnVHNBVENjN2NCUkdrbUx5bFhaQ1Z2ZVJsUnBpekxHUWpBbl9BeTFlYS1DTEl2RUNHUFp6c3hvOA?oc=5
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/iraq-signs-deals-with-western-oil-firms-including-to-revive-syria-pipeline?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOTGFTaTBuZXJJTG1kNk9VeEVfTjA0OFJmOUE2SUU5YUpiZHNQY0FPc1BHNVo3UVNVM0FJSklQd1dVejNHbnlIU1A3ME83bzZwcjZHOU43YlA0RGo2ZDJHYU9keXBJeUhVYktHZ1E3U294dVpLeGxOV3ZieTNPSGhFUkIzRVYtdE1zQzF3cGtuTkNGRXMzekdkZi05TFBWbzJwaTNLb0JmZm95bFNmeVdnZkJWQkV0S3B4SEQtUklaYXhaNXY1?oc=5
2026-07-17
2026-07-17
进展要点
- 美国政府可能继续扩大对伊朗军事打击范围，并考虑封锁伊朗港口及能源出口。
- 特朗普政府急于重建被最高法院推翻的关税壁垒，贸易保护主义政策将延续。
- 巴西可能宣布对美报复性关税清单，涉及农产品、乙醇、钢铁等。
- 伊朗革命卫队可能进一步袭击美军在伊拉克、叙利亚、阿联酋的设施。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡威胁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策收紧预期
美国对巴西关税 / 巴西报复 / 农产品 / 工业品贸易受阻 / 新兴市场风险溢价上升
美伊冲突 / 避险情绪 / 金价波动（先跌后涨可能） / 美元 / 美债需求分化
稀土成本飙升 / 日本制造业成本上升 / 全球科技供应链压力
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ABC News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/643155-iran-bridges-region-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east-war-rekindles-as-us-and-iran-resume-strike-exchange
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1RWk1Qa1dMb0Y3cjlkWWtFUFpPQzhEMnk4N0lFRmswd2t1R1F0Yi1oS1Z6TUJFQ0xpRzZPcGd3Yi1ndU5YYlk3ZjRJYkJxRVkxdmlPU2RxY052ekFOWWc5NDd3LTJLMmx5MkdmZ293?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260716/36275ccbc12d4af1af7ebc9c9f5b77ef/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660981.shtml
- [6] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c151gdjwd10o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/us-mounts-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks-as-iran-warns-of-wider-war?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-sixth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/brazil-calls-trumps-25-tariff-unjustifiable-vows-impose-134822260
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-slams-barbaric-us-attack-after-hospital-evacuated-due-to-nearby-strike/article71231195.ece
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-warns-strait-hormuz-red-075143851.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/rare-earth-costs-surge-over-20-for-japanese-firms-survey-shows
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/643145-iran-and-america-new-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660984.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYXFnZWtOU1NXb01HY2FxbTBsUmJqNDlaa3NORmpyZ0pYVzhSVFZkaUNYTjczY0E1YjhpR1F1OGRoT3dJNnVTMjVuUGJyamVCckJwMi1WY0hJR2NyVGQ0ZDdzbF9LMzgteGZDRGtMd0ZQV211YWF3cHpYLWdhTXZjTXVhTG1zRkRmR3Q1NVdQRWNEb2xhZU0zRTFodmM4ZXc?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPbGp6ME1URkg1Zng1YjRkYk1MRGJxd09aRHRXVmhDbVBRUlRNbmNrQjZ0akM5ZWFKbmhsWFVqakt6OWE2WU1yZWUyaDJUMVg3Y0ZiUHBWNFpaRVJfdlhIcng0bWo3dHlGV0twNjZXOEJNbzk1SUt0N3pvRDdteGR6T1pRM191QkJEZWVPTzlKLVNHb1c0UXo5R2xiTUlqS242czZOYXgzMA?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/16/how-serious-is-irans-threat-to-disrupt-shipping-in-the-red-sea?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-fifth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/16/what-could-a-us-ground-invasion-of-iran-look-like?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-administration-races-clock-rebuild-us-tariff-wall-134820722
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/as-the-war-rekindles-what-options-are-left-to-the-us-and-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/07-16/10660952.shtml
- [23] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-threatens-to-block-more-vital-seaways-as-trump-orders-renewed-iran-blockade/article71224209.ece
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-tells-houthis-to-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-report/article71229802.ece
2026-07-16
2026-07-16
进展要点
- 美国众院预算委员会将于周四投票，950亿美元对伊战争资金若通过将进一步强化军事行动。
- 欧盟对俄第21轮制裁谈判破裂后，现有油价上限（44.1美元/桶）将于7月23日到期。
- 特朗普政府明确将能源出口作为施压工具，霍尔木兹收费提议和印度关税法案均体现这一逻辑。
- 伊拉克美军宣布于9月底撤离，但撤军后伊朗可能填补安全真空，加剧地区不稳定。
关联路径
美伊军事对抗 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期抬升 / 央行政策收紧
委内瑞拉地震 / 石油减产 / 重油供给紧张 / 炼厂原料成本上升
欧盟制裁僵局 + 美关税威胁 / 全球石油贸易碎片化 / 地区价差扩大 / 能源套利机会
黑海油轮遇袭 / 俄油出口受阻 / 乌拉尔贴水加深 / 亚太买盘增加
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/iran-says-peace-deal-voided-fighting-existential-war-after-us-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-us-launches-wave-of-strikes-on-iran-tehran-threatens-to-halt-regional-energy-exports
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/world/middleeast/us-iran-hormuz-greater-tunb-island.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-16/10660151.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE5VZVRQYUszT2dpanVJbzYyMzZvVjEzUW44ekpUVU5TanJ4cnhKdWNwSWl6NXpQM2NFM1E0b0lSQ2ltN3VZR0hPdWpBRDVPV29CYWg3N0t4TWlmc1RrYmc1a25Rd0dUeExwVVk2SQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9323zgq6wvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ships-refusing-us-military-guided-154218357.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-airstrikes-iran-greater-tunb-island-strait-of-hormuz/article71226116.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643112-eu-russia-sanctions-fail/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/us/politics/us-blockade-iran.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/15/ukraine-strikes-20-russian-vessels?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQREphVnNka3l1V3FyaHFtRjNRZWYzNlJnem5kRFJkNlZoaUJMRjFyeUt1bmpwcnJYTE4wN2dJeVBUX1JLanA4WVBKYmI3UEtHZzhLWS1ISTJxeXZ2T0x0RkpQZjM1b0FoTzBqNk5TT2QydVBleHlRV25KOTdFaVg0NUpwXy1oWEFWM2ZVMUFTY21mNDJ4OUhqYXlsTzA3SUhLdjBtbHNVbHRfZ1U?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/mapping-the-latest-us-strikes-across-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-why-the-us-is-launching-naval-drones-at-iran-s-port-city-of-bandar-abbas
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPTW1DVzNxMUs1U2htTWd5Y0gtYnF5SUxnYU16UWE4c1VFeFR6SW03VUlLWW1TZk1yRmJ4eVUtUTZlenJ0YWc5eVhPUW0teWRTamF6TjVCcFFGWlBuNG0tVTFsMDJoMENXM2ZTeDUzU1FOeFVGRjRnZW5ZeHVGOG8xVU1xdlNPaFNIeWd5OWNBekcxdDRiWGFrTmNUN2xiT2c1cWMtMEJIMVYtM0sxZ1dpcTVlQQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-middle-east-live-tehran-and-us-exchange-strikes-as-blockade-of-iranian-ports-resumes
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/07-15/10660127.shtml
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/us/politics/house-republicans-budget.html
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/congress-seeks-piyush-goyals-clarification-on-proposed-us-bill-for-100-tariff-on-india-over-russian-oil-purchases/article71226516.ece
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/643090-us-ends-iraq-presence/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-15
2026-07-15
进展要点
- 美联储主席沃什明确对通胀零容忍，7月FOMC可能继续加息或维持鹰派立场
- 美国对伊朗实施全面海上封锁，伊朗石油出口将大幅下降
- 特朗普在霍尔木兹海峡政策上反复，市场面临持续不确定性
- 海湾国家投资换保护方案可能重塑地区安全架构
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应短缺 / 原油价格飙升 / 通胀预期升温
美军连续打击伊朗 / 中东安全恶化 / 风险溢价上升 / 避险资产受追捧
美国封锁伊朗港口 / 伊朗石油出口归零 / 全球油市供需紧张
美联储鹰派表态 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场资本外流
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Times of India
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/us-strikes-new-targets-in-iran-as-tehran-hits-gulf-states-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/643033-us-iran-hormuz-state/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQMjlSZWpxTTRMSUNuTmRocnVjNlJBZHhCTG81Nktodm1LU2dGZWN5MWZtazRLdkZySE4yX2tnTk9tR3dkWFVZUmFjT0VibVluVDd5X040dDBoRlYxd3VBaHhLRXhyWm8xUENUcjRsUHg3QTktQWo5X0FWTXVnLXBSMQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-tanker-strikes-raise-tensions/live-77942892?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260714/c8cb7a6da09b435ab8fa7f0d165a44ae/c.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-15/10659420.shtml
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy494yypnv3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0608wy8pro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260715000352315
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/business/trump-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260714-war-talks-repeat-how-to-break-the-cycle-between-us-and-iran
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-india-condemns-iranian-strikes-after-seafarer-killed-in-hormuz-above-the-fold-14072026/article71222583.ece
- [13] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-replace-20-hormuz-fee-with-trump-says-strait-open-for-all-but-iran/articleshow/132396009.cms
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNSzY1MU9sbHl3ajVsaWduRmJsMWdQRnRJZVZ1ZkZSaDJuemhYSUJiV0NUbS0zTmpLdjl4R1c2eTVTa280d1JqWG42aEZTcWQtRVJPMjk1SWVhU2lUUVp2NUY2elRPeUpvZVg2Y0xCZ2kySFVvZE9seFgyYlRiQklLMU9LcGpxZWhBaGtNZVpaLUQ4QTlDUEZENFQ4M1NWQ1k0c09wdjg2NTBRX01IZmxhQ19yUkdndw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE1RRVN1RzdYYVg1UXNhYzNqYmdGNEM1MzBjYW5UQkxBTGlRZUl3LS1fQ29jeGNxNHAtbUNZaHNzaWVNR05XYlNzLVV2SmQ3djBZaFFFZmFMTjF6b0ZwV0pheWc1VUZXUWRJQXZUTWtrMmNyNG5mNXc?oc=5
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-new-round-of-strikes/live-77942892?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-15/10659418.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-15/10659404.shtml
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/14/sirens-blare-in-bahrain-as-iran-launches-barrage-of-missiles-drones?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy0ydn033yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260715000351315
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/trump-pivots-from-20-percent-strait-of-hormuz-fee-amid-iran-war-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/business/economy/inflation-cpi.html
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/business/economy/inflation-data-iran-war-price-surge.html
2026-07-14
2026-07-14
进展要点
- 美国可能推动盟友共同执行海峡护航，但地区国家态度分化。
- 特朗普政府或进一步升级制裁，包括冻结伊朗海外资产。
- 伊朗可能加速核计划作为反制，引发更大危机。
关联路径
霍尔木兹危机 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策受限
美伊交火 / 区域不稳定 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入美元 / 黄金
海峡通行费 / 运输成本 / 全球贸易成本上升
伊朗出口受阻 / 供应缺口 / OPEC+增产讨论
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Global Issues News / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-launches-third-straight-night-of-strikes-on-iran-as-strait-of-hormuz-tensions-escalate/articleshow/132378336.cms
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/13/missile-strikes-and-attacks-on-ships-reported-around-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8d2vn38dy1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-reimposes-iran-naval-blockade-threatens-hormuz-fees
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260713012653315
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE1LQ2IyTmsyTXlsYjJHR0NpMEFCT2Q0Z3UwS0JzSXRlTFRpZ3hzc3dzOW9rak1NWVd5ZllBR1Z3Q1I4LUVLamVTbHBCWlVkcTY2RTI1Ng?oc=5
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/shows/watch-trump-reinstates-iran-blockade-amid-continued-us-iran-strikes-above-the-fold-13072026/article71218519.ece
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260713235539XKG
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-reinstates-us-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz/live-77926628?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642947-trump-iran-hormuz-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260714/788677e61e18443ab2d403d39c8ccf1d/c.html
- [12] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/13/43562
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/us/politics/trump-iran-ceasefire.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-14/10658731.shtml
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/donald-trump-announces-20-toll-on-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-to-reinstate-iran-blockade/articleshow/132369712.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/13/trump-us-will-take-over-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-us-will-blockade-iran-in-strait-of-hormuz-and-will-charge-ships-for-safe-passage/article71218305.ece
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTFBnVjhScnVheUNnYXhMcjVVRlZuS2RiMGgwQTNxRWxtU1AxWlM1elZTRGxjU0xwVFNwb3A3YkluVzN4WGlsUlVrbmZtT0hwRlVsYnozb2Q1cXhHTXU2QlFyMlNzaHFQUzh1cVVmWW1n?oc=5
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260712-en-direct-etats-unis-lancent-nouvelle-salve-de-frappes-sur-iran-pays-golfe-detroit-ormuz-liban-donald-trump-israel-cessez-feu
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260712-middle-east-live-us-strikes-iran-gulf-states-targeted-strait-hormuz
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260713012800315
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE9lUURyVkwxd09Rek93UXV1NHY5dmNxclI3cFdGTERiSzdiczNBM2F2YU1ydFVwV1MxZ1I5M1J0VEhENlBDa0h1dUxISFRiRFNKaEcxSEJYYmNxWlRIby1QLVQ5aVdWMkJZSlBFeEFzUDNnU0Mx?oc=5
2026-07-13
2026-07-13
进展要点
- 美国政府可能继续授权更大规模打击，不排除发动地面/海上行动保护海峡通行。
- 英法德E3外交谴责或升级为制裁，但短期内无法改变军事态势。
- 印度、韩国等国可能寻求外交斡旋或派遣海军护航。
关联路径
US strikes Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption / Oil & LNG supply risk / energy price spike
Iran closure threat / shipping disruption / global supply chain & inflation risk
Conflict expands to Gulf states / regional instability premium / risk assets sell-off
Diplomatic collapse / no near-term de-escalation / persistent geopolitical risk premium
来源
China News Service / France 24 #3 / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / Google News - World / RT News / BBC News (Top) / UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office / Times of India / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260712-en-direct-etats-unis-lancent-nouvelle-salve-de-frappes-sur-iran-pays-golfe-detroit-ormuz-liban-donald-trump-israel-cessez-feu
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-13/10658077.shtml
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-claims-strait-of-hormuz-is-open-amid-strikes/live-77920097?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/12/concern-for-renewed-war-in-iran-as-us-attacks-military-civilian-targets?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.lemonde.fr/videos/video/2026/07/12/video-les-etats-unis-frappent-140-cibles-en-iran-apres-l-attaque-par-teheran-d-un-navire-dans-le-detroit-d-ormuz_6722895_1669088.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPVjRMWlNaRDhUd1I4Y0pIa3ZQaDdqWUR2TUVCNGl5bDlVT0Y4LTF5LUhtTDR5Ynk5dkZ4bzJXRDBkSTg4VVoyTkdmU3o0bHZYLV9NZTVBaGlraGMxdWhEd3VjdFZNbXQ3SXlLcHkzMlNtR0lOMkxvWWo3ZlpnTTdIX2UtS1lMUGM?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/642912-iran-us-hormuz-ghalibaf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9gkpp0dkeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/e3-statement-on-iranian-attacks
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hormuz-crisisiran-hit-triggers-fears-of-fuel-supply-disruption/articleshow/132352135.cms
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260713054156bfQ
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260713022425Dhk
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/12/us/politics/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-deal.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/angriffe-usa-iran-strasse-von-hormus-centcom
- [15] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5646561/as-lancarkan-gelombang-ketiga-serangan-ke-iran
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260712-middle-east-live-us-strikes-iran-gulf-states-targeted-strait-hormuz
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260712-iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-intense-us-strikes
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxPc0RWZW5KLVB0R09vRF95cF85RDNNZDB1TVo1dF9oS215bHNXaVBOWWRrc1hIRXVSRE5feEhCVnp1ay1FenNCU0YzVjJSUHZZcFE5dHoxajhIQkxWQ1J0aUljbHpicmFyQ2laSUQ5ZWttVjNpQjZMWVd4NExfcmFiUA?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPR1dsTV95QVROeEhJUVg3WDRheFNJMXY3NlFianE5ZE0xWEFkOTlBS054aFNETWFaOENJN0wybWh5VHlhNkJLYVU2UUg0RnVGSUNSLUFHNnVQRFBuT1N3RkVrWVhGYmd6a2tsT29HSVAwZEhTNHJoQUViY0hXQ2h1Zmg0MXNZRC1zMFVhcXAzdnF2bERvOEJUc1o2R19jWURhRnBza25TZkZvOUpxb2c?oc=5
- [20] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-carries-out-fresh-strikes-near-strait-of-hormuz/live-77926628?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/642926-us-fourth-wave-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/12/iran-says-almost-a-dozen-enemy-projectiles-targeted-qeshm-island?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/642922-iran-himars-attack-kuwait/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/07/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-plus-de-140-navires-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz-au-cours-des-sept-derniers-jours-assure-le-commandement-central-des-etats-unis_6722873_3210.html
2026-07-12
2026-07-12
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗施压要求公开保证海峡安全，否则可能采取军事行动。
- 伊朗坚持海峡控制权，将通行作为战略筹码，外交解决空间有限。
- 阿曼斡旋谈判仍在进行，但双方公开威胁降温外交努力。
- 俄罗斯因黑海航运关闭，可能进一步影响全球粮食和化肥贸易。
关联路径
Strait closure / oil supply disruption / crude price spike / inflation expectations / central bank policy
Iran-US escalation / Middle East risk premium / safe-haven flows into gold & USD
Venezuela earthquake / production loss / heavy crude tightness / gasoline margins
Black Sea shipping halt / grain export disruption / food price inflation
来源
China News Service / RT News / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / Kyiv Post / ORF.at News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Sky News / Tagesschau / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / The Irish News / Kyiv Independent / Mehr News Agency / El País Internacional / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-12/10657757.shtml
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/642900-iran-closes-hormuz-again/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/11/eua-buscam-compromisso-do-ir-de-liberao-do-estreito-de-ormuz.ghtml
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-threatens-iran-ayatollah-ali-033506025.html
- [5] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80056
- [6] https://orf.at/stories/3435955
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9gkpp0dkeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNTzEwU1VBMUJIMnlNdFFhb2gwX2VuNjJIWHlMaWFMZTlOT0hQa184Nk5VeUotdUw1bzhOTE11a0c5cThvampGOFVoZE9qN3JsR3lIVVJVbnRlT1RIWm5xbVZmb1VtcXVLdk9RM2dRQVp3UEhwU282UVJ3d1JYdk9MSG5GaXRKSFVlMW5nZEtFVE15bTZLS2llcVVra2R1bXNneHB0YzREaGpiN1RVSXlQbUsyc2VLSGxUVUxlZnJyTERDODFucGNtZw?oc=5
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/more-than-4300-confirmed-dead-in-venezuela-earthquakes-13562615
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-102.html
- [11] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-11/trump-irans-supreme-leader-trade-threats
- [12] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/trump-threatens-iran-after-calls-for-his-killing-at-ali-khameneis-funeral-5YSWVV6IFZNCJMKH3OAV3ALEFQ
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/russia-halts-shipping-through-don-azov-canal-after-ukrainian-strike-on-vessels-reuters-reports
- [14] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246078/Araghchi-heads-to-Oman-for-talks-on-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [15] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-11/estados-unidos-exige-a-iran-que-se-comprometa-publicamente-a-no-atacar-barcos-en-ormuz.html
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/11/6a522821fc6c83c73c8b45a8.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-schwoert-Vergeltung-fuer-Tod-von-Chamenei-id31075294.html
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/10/43540
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/11/hormuz-shipping-in-focus-as-iran-us-rhetoric-heats-up?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80064
- [21] https://orf.at/stories/3435956
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOdlZwRHBZb28tT1BqTHZWbC1XOTJ1NmNKejFvbzhJLVM5ZjBCT25ndnZMMmx0T2ZWcFN6N0lvcV9zeU04T21UNFhRdTJGNW5FUmhMVnZKMDFzakFHLUp5V2VWRU1mMEEybUNQS1pqc251bGNFOUdkbnlFQWljU0kzN2thV1dGcENVOGVOMVBtTzZoRGxuWHhteEF3QlRHTnhDb3MzUU9VVTYtcXVvRXM5RQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/deadly-russian-attacks-hit-ukraine-as-kyiv-targets-tankers-in-sea-of-azov-LO7BA2GK7ZPGJCARRP2EKWHNQI
- [24] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/trump-and-iranian-leader-trade-threats-as-mediators-bid-to-save-crumbling-deal-4NNQFOPDEZMHBD67XDXP3PW2MQ
- [25] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-10/unclaimed-airstrikes-target-iran-after-u-s-attacks-raising-questions-of-who-launched-them
- [26] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-11/iran-se-hace-fuerte-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-su-gran-botin-de-guerra.html
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-09/iran-ataca-de-nuevo-intereses-de-estados-unidos-en-kuwait-barein-y-qatar-en-respuesta-a-los-bombardeos-de-washington.html
- [28] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/USA-Iran-muss-Sicherheit-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-zusichern-id31074174.html
2026-07-11
2026-07-11
进展要点
- 美国可能正式重启对伊朗海军封锁，进一步削减伊朗石油出口
- 俄罗斯制裁法案若通过，将限制俄能源出口及美元支付能力
- 美国或推动盟友加强霍尔木兹海峡护航，但效果存疑
- 美伊谈判仍在进行，但短期内达成一致可能性低
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻 / 原油供应风险 / 油价暴涨 / 通胀预期上行 / 货币政策收紧预期
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 俄燃料短缺 / 柴油禁令 / 全球馏分油紧张 / 成品油裂解价差扩大
美国对伊朗 / 俄罗斯制裁加码 / 油气出口缩减 / 全球供需失衡 / 大宗商品超级周期逻辑强化
避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金 / 美元 / 美债 / 风险资产承压
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / ANTARA News Agency / France 24 #3 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/us/politics/iran-war-escalation.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNWU8weHNqWU10dDFxUGpMR3Z5LW0xVVVnTlNuU2ZBaWpXS0ZnbHQ4c3BENmZ2QVZMZ0VLWmIyUnU0NVM2Tkp4T0lONVM2NnF5cHluZWRxR3FkOXdsNEJoQ3I1VmV3a3hOcExFWll0Vkp2VUJKN2xpcU13US1lOEkxWE1CcEY2dWZGbUZ4TzZ3V0lYRUhLdC1CZjJNTDVJZVM2TDZpSUU0V0lQdkZn?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/10/ukrainian-attacks-cause-chaos-at-fuel-stations-across-russia?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/top-iranian-officials-admitted-supreme-162000309.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukrainian-drones-hit-southern-russian-refineries-azov-port/article71207976.ece
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260711000300315
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644808/as-dorong-kapal-niaga-tetap-gunakan-jalur-selatan-hormuz
- [8] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260710-les-hostilit%C3%A9s-entre-l-iran-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-reprennent
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/07-10/10657209.shtml
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642860-iran-khamenei-death-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQd3p4VkVsUUpoYmxDY0ROM2c0Qk9IVEVGWnZFZkxOdjYtNEZuVmRSMFBXNkpwSU5Ka3M2MkRrUGV1U3hRaktUTVFFdmhWZjNHeG13NHJscUVKd0hLSnlrZ2k4bWV6VklQVHppSWhLV2ZNQUJBNjhhUVBONy1DUGc5dERTbUJaeHZ2dTI5ay1HU0U3M2JxWVh6WHNLS3Naa1U0aHg5Ym1uc3RVdHM?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/iran-shipping-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOanFsbUNrR3NoakU1cEowb1ZIa3oyWU55NTZaYll6VDJHal9KVGhGclVuUFNuNFZ3bEV5bDNFUWVyY0E3ZlE2YjFoV0V0N1pqdzFJaU13Y0RvUlBLMDBWTXpKWU8xdG5TRnFveTRjVDBvSHVqRGZZQkVGcFdHenZVNTBneEtCUQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/trump-says-us-has-agreed-to-continue-iran-talks-but-ceasefire-over?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ml--iran-us-105500253.html
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-senators-agreement-reached-trump-171753021.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/russian-attacks-kill-four-as-ukraine-continues-to-target-oil-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-has-asked-to-continue-talks-and-the-us-agreed-trump-says/article71207807.ece
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinastemporary-export-ban-on-helium-explained/article71206477.ece
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260710-reprise-des-hostilit%C3%A9s-iran-usa-sommet-de-l-otan-marine-le-pen-condamn%C3%A9e
- [21] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644803/as-ingin-israel-tak-terlibat-serang-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-10/10657255.shtml
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/07-10/10657250.shtml
2026-07-10
2026-07-10
进展要点
- 英国央行可能提前加息，以应对通胀压力（BBC Business）。
- 俄罗斯柴油出口禁令短期内难以解除，全球炼厂产能受限。
- 美国战略石油储备已降至1983年来最低，若油价飙升可能面临释放压力（Al Jazeera）。
- 印尼B50政策继续推进，将影响全球棕榈油供需平衡。
关联路径
霍尔木兹中断 / 原油 / LNG供应短缺 / 能源价格飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行加息压力
俄罗斯柴油禁令 / 全球柴油紧缺 / 裂解价差扩大 / 运输成本上升
美伊冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金 / 美元 / 新兴市场货币承压
英央行鹰派 / 英镑走强 / 英国出口竞争力下降 / 股市波动
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Nikkei Asia / Prime Minister of Canada - News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-faehrt-schon-wieder-fast-nichts-mehr-a-2d1d09c2-0512-461e-a4ef-deeddac13e10
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPLXg5T2JPTTAwZUtYN0Z6TDNURjVQQ0dIQkZNdHJTX3JzM3dldHg5aEdKbGtmU2tpd01IajlCMjkxX0RvaVZ4d28tR1YtbXROMUNuY1JVRDE0N3U5ZXpGNGE4czNWbWdfOTlZdUxVclRGRHRaWmVpTkJtcGhmcVJ5UnJvNjJUQlgtS2xLZVlxdk5aeUhQb0haWDVDNlBGMEYtdVk2LVQzdDVUVkxSVmJ5SWJQZFJ6Uk1iTkpJ0gHAAUFVX3lxTE9oaDRrbklIamJFU00zR3dtbFlqMWdReXV0SVFxcXRuTFk5UU5RbGEzWGxWMTlYSUtSb0JQTlZNZm9rT2t4U0YtNjRpLUN4Y3R6OVVuQkdCSjg4a0lEV2UxMnFzdlN6d1NERGU3ZWFQRGhEbW04SExnb2NxVUkwNzBWazBBakd2bGJZcFVJM3U4RGlWazAxYjd
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/how-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-led-to-latest-us-iran-cycle-of-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c932ed8nv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621k5r8764o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-unleashing-attacks-iranian-official-132635907.html
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656391.shtml
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-claims-us-strike-hit-near-nuclear-powerplant
- [9] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/indonesia-launches-b50-biodiesel-to-curb-fuel-imports
- [10] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/07/09/prime-minister-canada-mark-carney-and-crown-prince-and-prime-minister
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPYWUtOFlPYmpMTHRWUjQ5ZTNjOFRaaVNCV0Z1aWZJY2E1UkcxV0t5M1dUYjExWWljV0lEbTd2ZE9semxVZjZQXzlYQnlQWjY0dWx0YUMyTXUtWnJsa3hYUlJGY3MxSWpuQmRUNmJxU19YZU41S0l5WDBLWlY1aTZHQVROdzNIcE1GYjlfTXJka3NNbGNTV2hvRFlxRllZd1AzOHlYRVJwSUtFUURha0NtbWdtWXBxb0MwaEEwNkFpaW9sQzlfajAwSQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/explosions-heard-in-iran-as-us-military-denies-involvement?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPMTluaGZLSkREMHJXUUgwVko5MXRPQ0l0cGhFUFEtZTJkT3BzTGZDdURQZElaMkpocnFkUmtmNXpVWHkzSE9CSUdPWnlHaGpqV2NNSVE5cFY5dWJwblA3Q2Y3ZU1PQ252bUV1NVl1cF9pbDVMam9PNEhWRlo2MXdld3R6VlJMbkE?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/9/why-the-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-matters-amid-us-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nahost-iran-beschiesst-jordanien-und-bahrain-und-wird-selbst-massiv-angegriffen-a-21eff440-2bcf-447e-8146-243650d51132
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656183.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQb1FJY0ZsOU5VeHpXeFdyNXJfSWhsUDdMLWViM0FnLTVqUTJYWWxUbENwd3JQcnlMcENuMFIyTHFEQTU2emlIUWxRajlVclJPaTE4VnhQQkxhWHg3OG9Tb3pGUFRUTExqVXlVWDZZTC1rSU5hY2VqOXJteUxGZ2FaY3dodnE4WjUtN3NPREZibUI0a1lBWFE?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPWDRJcW1wUllxQmpHN0tycGF5SERVMEtKQ0p0QXhXMmpnaWRFUlJJN3c4SXh1S3Z1alpXSGdiN2VoeENReDh1Q0o1d2ZBdlUyUkQ2RDZNNVVSUDA5M3NreVRhVzR6bklmbnRvUVN6M2JHOWtCZTczcm9pOGFfV1Y1ekY1TjRHMkNMYWtYVVBibGE0LU9wbWJ3M2l0YXNQb3c2cll6OENacnpiYk96dUlld0FvSVZBZlExVFZ1M1JGZDc0WUZnN2lV?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/9/us-expands-iran-strikes-iran-hitting-fishing-piers-near-nuclear-plant?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxOcjJ3MFQwQ3VucnA5X2wzVVA4S2M2dm54OExheU41WFVMQWZXd2hKNzQzaktCUGFGTWdFNS02WEttdlhaU1R2WHY3ZDBBbE9zdW9CeVlhWEx2OUtOVkU2cnRqZkVPMWMzUE5ZbW1nSDVqb2hrd0M0aHdFRVE2SFpfVlY4OFZ2cWV0TWhCcWE1NVRxQVRZRkJxaWVCR005ZkRnRU9xdjV1Ty01NlIyZEZKbUVmN3pLdXc5bDFZcDRTUXZFdC1zM3c?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/9/will-nato-get-involved-in-securing-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNLWRoOE9KTTRPTGtUN0R0Z1VzUUhyOU5UVmQ5Z3dGY0otTTNOYnhfQXZhb0FDM1FnT0V1T3QxM05zVWV2UE5BLS1QUHNRbVFSZ0ExdlQyeXk3dE5UTFdnRFlPaVk4dkJ5QThvSVV6S1dkZ0FnMWlGUW10eWo3VHdOTmpNaTQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5zR2FVTHZrcGRpMzdzaU11YWZTMU9GN2ZWbTFtNkM2YkNRWGh6cEoxdlhQa0Vvd2FpbHVuXzZiWHJRTVBWNU5VU2Y2ZkRVOVNvYjhzMWJMSUs2d0ItV3hoRjFfT2NpUmlGYzBsSHVGRGY?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQMFdRNlpaV0ZCRU1vbThIVlFSQy11anNlcDc5RUxFbmhraHU2SWptSXVNdFBjX0FmM3hTRlFpa2V2QUlaMGVpZGtJNEY4MzNmMGNwR2RmNm9MaXdqbnBldzRnbnpZUHR3Z2NMbUNBTHpIS2ZRaHIzUWxGQmgwSlUtUllCVmpaVkVRUm9SSi1R0gGTAUFVX3lxTE00X3NPUnQ1dzlkZVBwMGpuYzd1RFJVdlhINXVUTlBRMkdidGpiQ0ZoUVdJYmFZdGRHUkgxcGlSeVJCVTlaUzNNWHNRX2UzZC1QTWs0RU10MjZhcVRHSzVhWUl3alo0WThDY3l4YkpCTTM5WUdQSFNPWFdoNjU5Zl85aTNMMzBCQTZHVjVhWkdvRVZ1bw?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOSzYzNzBjcjFnUWdFWUV3UzBsZzVhcnVVX0ZHOUlXN2lfQWdBWlB6d0RCOGJOd3JKdHpBVkVWd0ViZnd0UndyQ3owUjFhei1BNlQ5WTJZR29WTkowMHd6ZGgwczdrUXlHNjZuSnZSdmZZWXFndTNBbUpyQTVLZXQyMFJYZmZSNjJ5WS1wMF82UnY3dmNRZE56UlVGX2Y1bTY4SDRBTjVPRDVYSUxYN19hX28yLU9wNU1uUmowcm41T0lodU3SAcgBQVVfeXFMT1hZZkt5OTdLdDVMODZSNXJkNE5GU1BLemRqaFlxWlUxbFlCVGJyQmhvMTVzVTRvMWp1VmZONHZ4NVVqUmFwRlpoUE05UHBFczJKSTdrcFFHUi1rX2I4WHkwS1dWUERvM2FFSjZ0T3d6U3VvMFhLWGlfSmdXUUc1aGRaeVhfdkhSNXNyaGJIZFp
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPYmQyTXJRVFgtVE1uM1MtLUhNb0dLaUNLMUxyYUpLcUhHWmowR2JhZGZtamJZaWJNNG13TkI5RFU4N19sZHl3czZkblU1Mi1tcDVCUjlRTGdXWDRLc3Y4bkc3ai1ObmVwQV9oYXdvN3lwVEdhX0F1bk5aUm05WktoZ2FrVm9JQnpfeUQxZF9tRmoxdXF6VWlnYXVKbw?oc=5
2026-07-09
2026-07-09
进展要点
- 美国可能继续加大军事压力，不排除发动更大规模打击。
- 伊朗可能寻求外交斡旋，但短期无望。
- OPEC+可能召开紧急会议讨论增产以稳定市场。
关联路径
美军打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期升温 / 央行紧缩风险
冲突升级 / 全球避险情绪 / 股市下跌、黄金上涨、美元走强
伊朗封锁海峡 / 全球石油供给冲击 / 经济衰退风险
特朗普威胁哈尔克岛 / 伊朗石油出口归零 / 油价进一步上涨
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #2 / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Sky News / Yonhap News Agency / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10655559.shtml
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20260708-us-says-it-s-carrying-out-more-strikes-after-iran-s-attacks-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/642781-us-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/trump-says-us-may-take-over-kharg-island-heres-what-you-need-to-know?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPbkhMb2gta1Z0dzNYZEFiOC1SNEltcE9rc1FhXzRNYnd4RlJGeDJWQThXSEpyMVB5eWFRUGVydXZKUXdZYnFPWXNLOTk3TjBGTS1hTC1tam9ET09tUlE5MUxTc0ZLeGNOMmtpSF9NTTJpNWpmSnpxUjVVT200SUJLeldUSFdjYmRq?oc=5
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-prices.html
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-us-militaer-meldet-erneute-angriffe-donald-trump-rechnet-mit-zeitnaher-beilegung-des-konflikts-a-ed72990c-cb16-40ed-b490-780314d926fd
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-launches-new-strikes-on-iran-after-trump-vows-to-hit-hard/article71199867.ece
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-second-wave-of-strikes-in-24-hours/live-77882459?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260709/6ca448a606e24da99b84fcb99a998fab/c.html
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyw8w1g409o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/energy-costs-rise-and-stocks-fall-sharply-as-us-iran-peace-is-shattered-13561710
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260709000251315
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/mourners-greet-khamenei-funeral-procession-131720459.html
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260707-middle-east-live-us-launches-strikes-on-iran-after-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOTHZCN0g1UHJ1czVIT1dORUI2RW1sWWhYVFBrWFlCSlZaRFdjYW5STG9vMzZxZ1lGcUhubEdoV1Q5NFJTM1A3NnIzQ0pkM3VkazlycmdqLWpRRHEwRzdhc3J3M2RsSGlRNVh0Tk5MQ1dGUXliWk9PWkdzcV9JNHlEMnA4ZFB3empYN2x3VG5DZmFhbHdUUTlUbUZlVFBYbkk?oc=5
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10655534.shtml
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/iran-signals-defiance-as-trump-fumes-over-strait-of-hormuz-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/us-says-conducting-new-wave-of-strikes-on-iran-as-ceasefire-falters-2?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/briefing/us-iran-attacks-ukraine-patriot-missiles.html
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10655554.shtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1VclFMUUV4cGpfbEw4M3FsMU10S1I4bFo3d1RYZV9hWFcwR1NrNVBwLU5pVVI1NUowSHhLeDJFTFpkNEtKNWYzTm02Ul9nUnpaMnVoVWJCdVdrLUVGMXcxRzJQR2Zadjc1ejlGOUFORmE?oc=5
2026-07-08
2026-07-08
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步收紧对伊制裁，并加大军事存在。
- OPEC+或面临增产压力以平抑油价，但内部分歧可能加剧。
- 欧洲国家加速天然气储备建设，德国率先行动。
- 中国可能就霍尔木兹海峡局势斡旋，但实际效果有限。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡袭击 / 石油供应风险 / 原油 / 成品油价格飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策紧缩
美国打击伊朗 / 中东避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产承压
乌克兰无人机袭击俄炼厂 / 俄罗斯原油出口减少 / 全球油品供应紧张
美国撤销伊朗石油许可 / 伊朗出口骤降 / OPEC+产量缺口扩大
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / RT News / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / The Hindu / Sky News / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / Die Zeit Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260707-us-launches-strikes-on-iran-after-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/642707-us-new-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwykq59jwpvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-fresh-strikes-after-attacks-in-hormuz/live-77869350?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-launches-strikes-against-212308104.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654726.shtml
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5639859/kapal-tanker-pengangkut-lng-diserang-di-teluk-oman
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/7/us-says-strikes-launched-as-explosions-heard-in-southern-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-thousands-throng-tehran-streets-khamenei/?id=134509610
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260708000500315
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxQZ2lMY1V0aWFzc1F6V29wV3g5UWVkaXI0cC1xTm1VT1BsZVN4dkt4eEZ3bFU4Uk9Qak1Bd0NNb0l4RlEwSmV1V3RBVTRJSEYwajBWdWhLbDcxTFFveWNHTE9XU1YybXZQdzduY1MyQmxhdldCWlp2ZjRVX3d4VnJhZldMQUtEdlRFSEpuUUxVTjM5REhQTmRTQWRMLWEybWJ6STJ1UVRhd0w0Ti1aMW9sNVFaWTh5ZDJ5UjhfUlRycWVYbUU?oc=5
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/three-tankers-hit-in-latest-attacks-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto/article71194549.ece
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/qatari-tanker-hit-as-it-travelled-through-strait-of-hormuz-13561225
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260708000109Sxr
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/el-nino-europaeisches-wetterinstitut-rechnet-mit-staerkstem-el-nino-der-geschichte-a-e68e7b5b-6e35-408d-8ed8-66369aee05af
- [16] https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2026-07/gasreserve-krisenvorsorge-erdgas-notsituation-gasspeicherumlage
- [17] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--iran-us-011240354.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654725.shtml
- [19] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5639841/shalat-jenazah-dilaksanakan-di-masjid-jamkaran-untuk-ali-khamenei
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654714.shtml
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/coffin-slain-iranian-supreme-leader-183326480.html
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/7/venezuela-buries-earthquake-victims-as-death-toll-reaches-3535?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPd0VnUGZPLW1xRUFGRWNnM0hkZzVHaDVrMWdLZEtmWW1tREZ0MDhURkhQWGJ1RnZ5T1ZVMzFkSlQ2X1NXWHlmNC10NmFfU3RFT3oxeFNqSW51OXFOeS1Wa2hfdWU5Ui1FWk5MUThFWGxlNDFmcDNBMWU4YUVMTVREaU1pajZxUmVWc0hkUnZhendKYl9ISTQxbktJNU1McUN2NWJGblBvSEduenZEME9HTy1lUDIyYUo4SGRDRTgwdnJ3dHRxVHo4?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQNkJPTUhLWWxYT0hLeUhPQmQxZVZZYlV1M0lzVHVzRFEyeW1VeHhLbk9wZWxpb0JVOXRqeVQxb2dRN0Z6aFpHNVdXQmdIa1RUNlFiMkhVeEVGOF9kSm9HRDdSd2JFZGowUEdkaVNOa2FIZmJOeDVuVTV0SFdDMTV6LThFNW1YbXAtdUtfYmdEWDRsMm9DbUx2bDBPamo0UTRQYmsxU0IyWmt3dUkzamc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260708020833WSX
2026-07-07
2026-07-07
进展要点
- 美联储面临通胀与增长双重压力，地缘风险可能推迟降息。
- 欧洲央行关注热浪对经济冲击，可能出台财政支持。
- 加拿大推进管道项目以增加出口，缓解美国对加拿大石油依赖。
- 伊朗继任者选举将决定其核谈判与油价立场。
关联路径
伊朗领导层真空 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供给风险溢价 / 油价上行
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 俄罗斯成品油产出下降 / 馏分油价格上涨
中国暂停对日矿物出口 / 稀土短缺 / 半导体成本上升 / 全球电子产业链扰动
欧美裂痕 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 避险资金流向美元与黄金
来源
The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Tagesschau / Kyodo News English / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / Prime Minister of Canada - Statements / El Mundo - International News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/world/middleeast/iran-khamenei-funeral.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/6/body-of-irans-slain-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-arrives-in-qom?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260706-opec-raises-output-but-cartel-s-future-hangs-in-balance
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOdWl5Sl9wdU5zTlNwRXg0MFN4cVFYOGJ0LWxOcFRRbnRxZzNnNHRtaUJIOEVjc05GVVZaQjNFeDVZYTJ3MVA5alRPelYwT2g4alJBckd4R1VzWkRuWUpGaFZIQXZVc1g5XzFFbHIydEJ1cXFnVk8taXFpTkVrV1RvMktjcS1aWFc5bTY1Z3VleVluMkk?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/642630-iran-mourners-kill-trump-banner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-hits-major-oil-terminal-123434233.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/saudi-arabia-slashes-august-crude-prices-for-asia-by-11-a-barrel-in-biggest-cut-in-over-20-years/articleshow/132217320.cms
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-teheran-trauerfeier-100.html
- [9] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/79292
- [10] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1079571/iran-lepaskan-ali-khamenei-dengan-perarakan-besar-besaran
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-live-updates-july-6-2026-khamenei-funeral-ceremonies/article71187769.ece
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-mindestens-18-tote-nach-russischem-angriff-auf-grossraum-kyjiw-a-96ff2946-8776-4480-8daa-7b94b9c67bec
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2026/07/06/seismes-au-venezuela-le-bilan-s-alourdit-passant-a-plus-de-3-500-morts-annonce-le-gouvernement_6721254_3244.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/mehr-als-3-500-tote-opferzahl-in-venezuela-steigt-weiter
- [15] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/07/02/prime-minister-carney-announces-west-coast-pipeline-project-proposal-and
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/06/6a4b94eefc6c83d51c8b4587.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNTDZrY2ZoWnNabEwySFNZSXo4c0psVEs2OFZNNWhNR2VjcGFkcVg5Mmd0RE81UmtrVjkyUmN2NlA2WEZBSlE5Qi1uLXhSODlfeTBfZmFDX1czSXpYeGFRWmJwZkNrRkxrVWhXdjFvZDZPRUk4OGhwR2I0QmMwQ2hIOFdjdDNyT0pqZTBUNVN2MWw0ZEwwbHJJZEpWLUZGRzFIRnhBSWwtdGxaNTlUcldqVHdB?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/642634-europe-heat-economy-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQTlJ2bmxFQ3lVX3RDVF9hVEZVRkNra1pwU3prZDdoTHE5Qjl3MjlDb0VuRTVlQlBvMFdNSW0tOHg2WUlGX1Rrc3B0Mkk4X2RvdGxTUjExQmRQM3R1LW80R0UtaXpnUXNxU0JuYnBzcDhaei1CSFVTUXFaLXE2ODBnTVUzTHdLYXpCSWNMSl9FcEdCVS1WemJKT1k2b0x6LWk3dnEyTTFaZHI3OW5ZSkljXzlnYUR0QWhOZEZxTGlIYUtwR2NGN1JCb3QwUURybUY0T0E?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/iran-supreme-leader-funeral-divisions.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/business/hormuz-strait-shipping-oil.html
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260706-his-resilience-his-words-his-character-mourners-grieve-late-supreme-leader-khamenei
- [23] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-slips-opec-agrees-raise-003607304.html
- [24] https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/analysis-world-absorbs-historic-iran-073926094.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/6/large-scale-russian-attack-on-ukraine-before-nato-summit?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/in-tehran-funeral-attendees-grieve-the-loss-of-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei
2026-07-06
2026-07-06
进展要点
- OPEC+延续增产路径，但幅度有限，且保留根据市场调整的灵活性，表明产油国在价格与份额间摇摆。
- 伊朗新领导层可能更强硬，霍尔木兹通行费威胁显示其利用咽喉地位施压。
- 美国对委内瑞拉政策出现矛盾，可能短期维持现状，但长期影响该国石油出口。
- 特朗普在乌克兰问题上寻求斡旋，但普京和泽连斯基各自立场强硬，和谈进展缓慢。
关联路径
乌克兰打击俄炼油厂 / 俄燃料短缺 / 全球油品供应收紧 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期回升
霍尔木兹通航骤降 + 伊朗收费威胁 / 石油供应中断风险 / 能源价格飙升 / 避险资产受追捧
伊朗权力过渡不确定性 / 中东地缘溢价 / 原油与黄金同涨 / 风险资产承压
OPEC+增产 + 委内瑞拉地震 / 供给多空拉锯 / 油价双向波动加大
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / The Independent / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / The New York Times / Russian Government News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ORF.at News / Global News / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / Deutsche Welle German News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNem9aeTdMZS1SYzcydDMydVQza0I3eEhwXy1qeVYyYjdzMUxhWjJwajRXNFM4UmVrNm1Ob0ltbnNYX0tCT0NTR1VZWkh4X2JYaUxBOXZYYzl6VmlIZUJ1S2JGRXRqc3NhUDQ3Xy1UdTd4bGptbjRhMFduMk9vUmF5a1ZfS2Y?oc=5
- [2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-israel-new-york-strait-of-hormuz-saudi-arabia-b3009330.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653267.shtml
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260705-iran-grande-pri%C3%A8re-pour-les-fun%C3%A9railles-d-ali-khamenei-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-07/opec-oelproduktion-foerderung-markt
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/business/opec-production-iran-war.html
- [7] http://government.ru/en/news/59229
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/cargo-ship-reportedly-attacked-in-red-sea-off-yemen/a-77838529?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3435361
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11953602/canada-seeking-clarity-annual-cusma-review
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260706053421yqP
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-trifft-Selenskyj-vor-Nato-Gipfel-id31050907.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/america/2026-07-05/la-paradoja-de-trump-en-venezuela-el-apoyo-a-un-regimen-al-que-prometio-derrocar.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/de/staatschefs-putin-und-selenskyj-rufen-trump-an/a-77836694?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOU2pnNmNzUTctOHVzeDVQdDZCZHBfZFlHUEhzcmN5c3BpUWVzaTlxQm5UNkZ1NC1SYkd3MkRaNFdSWkRSTXVFXzhpNXFjcWhqd0FVSEFFUG1MdTdfeUlLOVhDenh3UUt5N0NVTHRyLUFzbGFHVnpxY2xCZlFxZ204b3lJNUJyLUFGcjFleU5mOTlVak16MXl5cmVQTjBCd9IBowFBVV95cUxOWkhoQTlPVm1JU1RDQmkzc2UxdHZpZEY4U0pBSWdVUTdOcV9nVzBvQnB6eWhvSDhfWnA4REZvOFNsOGk3YXBCdHVMWHd6SlZ2MzhKdkpERm1EaW9OWjdVRFFZaS03SXpldGM4TjhHN0ZiN3paYnNuWGxISmFlckFVd24tYlhzUV9oSU1odTJOTUdGdU9ZSlJXT216b3BxVk43WDRV?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPZnM4c3Z0bXNvTWdmbVhPS0JpZ191RGp5UUduV3UwTm5vblhBQ2RTQ1doeHlCbXBJZnlGcm5XSWc1Sm1Wa29aX3pkRXA0d19GUl9jLWVGNVBjdjNGSU9nVC1fczNmQl9vOVJVOHVUM0Fvb1JFNGR4Y2VtUHB4dnZIXy1YZUtrOTZ1VjJ0OHlBQjJ4VGg5Tm9VZnhUMUxsbTlGSzJIRnpZMDRhOW_SAbABQVVfeXFMTUFjV1V0Ukc3ZnpUNXlSYmN1NmJUTlIzWGFIVGN5aEQ0WUxLWTl1MVFXeE5tU2k3M09Ya1RRMWhxNU9xWVppT1pQZGdWWG9PdXh4OGx5djlBaVcwQy1KRGZkZXhpb0ZfX3pFc09DWHdWWnMxR0ViS3BKOURIVUwzckVfSFEydFhxV3U4U19xQzdzSGpJa3Y3TUd6V3R4dDkwN3lMUFE0Ujg
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-funeral-khamenei-tehran.html
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/trauerfeier-iran-ali-chamenei-teheran
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/selenskyj-fuerchtet-massive-russische-attacke-vor-nato-gipfel
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/au-c%C5%93ur-de-l-info-l-invit%C3%A9/20260705-elena-volochine-le-pouvoir-russe-est-sur-une-ligne-de-cr%C3%AAte
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653265.shtml
- [22] https://orf.at/stories/3435327
- [23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/israel-tehran-donald-trump-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-strait-of-hormuz-b3009267.html
2026-07-05
2026-07-05
进展要点
- 美国或保持克制以避免中东局势失控，但伊朗复仇压力下冲突概率仍高。
- 特朗普政府可能加大对俄乌和谈的介入，但双方立场差距大。
- IMF对委内瑞拉重建援助可能附带政治条件，影响马杜罗政权。
- 霍尔木兹海峡收费计划若实施，将推高全球能源成本，多国可能抗议或反制。
关联路径
伊朗领导层更迭 / 中东战争风险 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期回升
乌克兰打击俄炼油厂 / 俄罗斯燃料短缺 / 全球成品油价格上行 / 炼厂利润扩大
委内瑞拉地震 / 重质油减产 / 炼厂原料成本上升 / 裂解价差走阔
USMCA重谈 / 北美贸易不确定性 / 农业出口承压 / 相关货币波动
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Sky News / RT News / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / Sud Ouest / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Mehr News Agency / A News / Kyiv Independent / France 24 #3 / El Mundo - International News / BBC News (Top) / Valor Econômico Politics / USTR Press Releases
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-hit-as-ukraine-targets-russia-in-major-drone-attack-13560510
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-05/10652908.shtml
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/642585-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-mourning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-04/iran-begins-dayslong-funeral-for-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-in-war
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-07/erdbeben-venezuela-la-guaira-tote-nachbeben
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPTnZZMm5oVERvUHpwZGVVazNQOFZmWERRRU9UWmk0Tkhyd2NOQTZJa2xkRXlqcXVGTmNPRFJ4TDdrNmo0ZXJXY1VoMW80QnNYLS1CalgzWmVrck1uZmxVX2JtTk05S1FrbUJpLV9DQkZaNFRSRnotT3YzVlNBN1hPZmpVc29KbmhWM1NlMVBDdmJfV0RhQWc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/iran/iran-une-foule-compacte-dans-le-centre-de-teheran-pour-un-dernier-adieu-a-khamenei-29795044.php
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/the-funeral-of-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-khamenei-s-funeral-ceremonies-officially-begin/a-77816592?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245890/Iran-s-Intel-Min-vows-to-avenge-blood-of-martyred-Leader
- [12] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-gives-iran-leverage-comparable-to-nuclear-weapon
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/major-russian-oil-refinery-suspends-operations-again-after-ukrainian-drone-strike
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260704-en-direct-d%C3%A9but-de-l-hommage-de-trois-jours-pour-le-d%C3%A9funt-guide-supr%C3%AAme-iranien-ali-khamenei
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a492bc9e85ece104c8b457a-video.html
- [16] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2vmzxezro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/04/trump-ofereceu-ajuda-a-putin-para-acordo-com-ucrnia-diz-assessor-do-kremlin.ghtml
- [18] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-ranchers-manufacturers-and-businesses-applaud-president-trump-not-rubber-stamping
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/4/russias-medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-irans-nuclear?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245884/Iran-warns-against-military-moves-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [21] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/uk-france-say-ready-to-deploy-multinational-force-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOUXVfTjQ0NmJWOW9yNFlPTUVySUVqZlV4NW93V0NKWTFRY2cxeWhzVjFDNVRaY1dNekVXSUEwVk1ROG0tSUc0SzJsVWJuUHM4UlFoOXNyeHBNcjNFRjVjX2Q1Qk5ZcVpqR3lZSnJ1X1J6Qmtoc3NCY1p2TkZHUmZ5YU14Q3I0NS1RSEx6M2F0X0NyQk42clZLMXhIZHJORGNxZkhpSnV4MjlaVkU3ZkpCaw?oc=5
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-04/10652893.shtml
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPUk1vYU8yRWN0UDZvcTNTSEtCQlc4NjQxdXFSdlVoZ2dSY3RfYlRlZDZGeGdLVGxNOE9lWHFYWW5FV3ZyNjZxSGZvX0FWTmZmZldRMEE5dlVCUEpfbXRmVEpxb19KSkIzWkk0U2llU1dQNm5iZk9ENU0tUDhULXpTSXlORVMxN2ZsQXhDeko4WXd1WVhMV2JPY2dUTXNqRjFMRV9MdGhVRThRY09WMWc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/4/will-economic-pressure-move-the-kremlin-towards-talks-with-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-july-4
- [27] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/europe/ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-la-russie-affirme-que-des-drones-envoyes-par-kiev-ont-touche-un-terminal-petrolier-a-saint-petersbourg-29788535.php
- [28] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a49243521efa0d45f8b458f.html
2026-07-04
2026-07-04
进展要点
- 美联储加息概率下降，市场定价12月降息可能性上升
- 中国央行通过逆回购维持流动性合理充裕，短期利率趋稳
- 德国要求增资稀土基金，欧洲加速关键矿产供应链多元化
- 美国PJM电网升级紧急措施，电力监管机构或推出限电预案
关联路径
伊朗葬礼 & 海峡收费 / 中东风险溢价 / 原油 & 避险资产
俄罗斯燃料危机 / 成品油进口需求 / 全球炼油利润扩大
美国就业放缓 / 降息预期 / 美债收益率下行 & 美元走弱
俄乌战场升级 / 粮食 & 能源供应扰攘 / 风险偏好下降
来源
Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / The Independent / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / RT News / China Government English News
参考链接
- [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-seen-less-likely-raise-130759582.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/4/iran-war-live-millions-expected-in-tehran-for-funeral-of-ali-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/04/paris-und-london-wollen-strasse-von-hormus-mit-oman-absichern
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1IRmJkU3lmYi1xelNicG5hWFJ5QmJOc2U5dlJxN09Jc2EzM3J4dG5RSDZxNEE1akRYR3JkTEpjQ1VkQmZBVC1xMjdLaWhuVzhSTUhTTGRNZWhhcHN1dkJ6VmpCamxUOG9mZmlrRjdwQ0NsX3U3VGY5UzRxSdIBgAFBVV95cUxQS3FWdEt4UHMtMEM0Rmt0RENXTnJKTC04c3hsVlcxb2hYT2xJelk2SUJndHgwTk56ZnBnSGpiOFBOLW02QlgwcjhzanpIelB1b3otaW51czJPTnJTM0RERWlmdHRFSEJpNVVJcmRwMVdsNU14VUpfTkVaX2g5aGpFRg?oc=5
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-funeral-iran-b3008364.html
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russland-sucht-Benzin-im-Ausland-id31045531.html
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140474-suputnik-pokazav-stupin-poskodzenna-vijskovih-i-adernih-obektiv-iranu-zmi.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-russland-krieg-142.html
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/03/seisme-au-venezuela-un-dernier-bilan-fait-etat-de-2-645-morts-et-12-666-blesses_6720488_3210.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642546-iran-us-israel-ghalibaf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://english.www.gov.cn/news
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/iran-begins-week-of-funeral-ceremonies-for-slain-supreme-leader-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPanlfMW1EMnFya2ZMNmFLVjBtT3ctNzZIdmVvVlVsYlNYNTJMRXJaTXlRU3BET0dncnF1UDlTMFdmVy14ZnkwdVdjWjNrS203OExQQjBjTUJHRTRBVUdYYkRSVUVLVGszZjF2ZWRMU2VvY0RhWGhVTFpPV0VkTmE1cTVHVnZueU9OOHBnT0xCcmNZdVVmeS1WZzdyS050NUVNcm1BQVlGZmV6N0NySlFJa3NIRG9YNDk2QUhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/yemens-houthis-threaten-saudi-arabia-after-alleged-airspace-intrusion?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-crimea-moscow-b3008512.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNZkg1ZzBwMDZqYVhHLUwtUWhNbWd2eVJkOGdFcDJHZUxKWTRFc3MyZTdoWHpKczlmVTgwR2R5QjQwU0lhUmJNOVYydlppNHR3emVMaEVuQW9GY1RHU1pHVFhYcDRBeWZHcG1sVjFFYWp2blNseUZjVjRHampXU3BPeHVsWDZBMGhOUVJaaWF5dzN1bWdocWR5eFA1MU90ZlQ5cUhvTHEySXJ6LUsw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/rohstofffonds-bundesregierung-johann-wadephul-seltene-erden-brasilien
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/largest-us-power-grid-pjm-190819959.html
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/carl-skau-welternaehrungsprogramm-vereinten-nationen-hunger-iran
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/cossacks-volunteers-help-keep-order-043430489.html
- [21] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/07/03/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-dans-la-ville-de-kiev-au-lendemain-de-l-attaque-la-plus-meurtriere-depuis-le-debut-de-la-guerre-les-recherche-se-poursuivent-dans-les-decombres_6716525_3210.html
- [22] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bildet-China-russische-Soldaten-aus-Berlin-bittet-Botschafter-zum-Gespraech-id31046589.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/642553-us-wants-access-cook-islands-critical-minerals-ambassador/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-03
2026-07-03
进展要点
- 美联储降息预期快速升温，市场已开始定价9月降息
- 日本央行面临日元升值压力，干预门槛可能降低
- 欧盟加强制裁执行，扣押俄影子油轮并取消中国低价进口关税豁免
- 特朗普拒绝续签美墨加协定（USMCA），北美贸易不确定性上升
关联路径
以色列伊朗冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡阻断风险 / 原油价格上行
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 俄罗斯燃料短缺 / 全球成品油供应紧张
美国非农弱 / 美联储降息预期 / 美元走弱、黄金 / 债券涨
欧盟制裁俄罗斯影子船队 / 俄石油出口受限 / 油价风险溢价维持
来源
Xinhua World / Politika / Google News - World / The New Indian Express / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / La Tribune / Meduza / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767802/izrael-spreman-za-samostalni-vojni-udar-protiv-irana-ako-bude-potrebno
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOLVdjbGMxNzNIN0lpak9kdDNFQ2djWmhSYmh6Y2Y4SHpCbXdYWkRNMGlkSFBOOWtxSUNrSDFCTDM2N1VwTEt3ZnBJUmVaaUY1YXF1YjFacWg3UWNRUFlZSUhDTkN3Y3Z0Nm53QVY2T2xYUFJGbElEZHMteUMtYm9IY1JUTGZPUDRyWXpqYkpVZ2lTY0E?oc=5
- [3] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jul/02/iran-warns-oil-tankers-to-use-approved-routes-in-strait-of-hormuz-or-face-forceful-response
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/german-prosecutors-allege-ukraine-ordered-nord-stream-pipeline-attack?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-prices-jump-25-as-weak-us-jobs-data-cools-fed-hike-bets/3984510
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260703/a77dd64ae6ea4783832e416f5c77d0d2/c.html
- [7] https://www.latribune.fr/article/economie/international/22415974798200/etats-unis-le-marche-de-l-emploi-ralentit-les-marches-jubilent
- [8] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/v-zabaykalskom-krae-snyali-na-video-chetyrehkilometrovuyu-ochered-na-zapravku-rosnefti-v-ney-stoit-600-800-avtomobiley
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Besitzer-von-russischem-Tanker-zahlt-Millionenstrafe-an-Frankreich-id31040935.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140186-es-nacilivsa-na-tankeri-rosijskogo-tinovogo-flotu-aki-nezakonno-vikoristovuut-prapor-kamerunu-reuters.html
- [11] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-jumps-into-160-range-for-1st-time-in-2-weeks-on-intervention-fears
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/eu-targets-chinese-imports-amid-trade-talks/a-77800366?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5633043/ekspor-minyak-saudi-via-hormuz-capai-level-tertinggi-sejak-perang-iran
- [14] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-us-iran-talks-013010346.html
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767793/kovceg-sa-telom-hamneija-stigao-u-huseiniju-imama-homeinija-uoci-pocetka-oprostaja
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBpc3EzUGNBbk4wMk9vQi1ZcmgyTnJtSnE2NDZocXd6RFZaUXRieXhDa21yQ3lXLV9ia2tuMFFEVlMzTmpTNllZMHlUbw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPRlNwaTgzVm82dHE0SUZjMERWTHZEQWtERXVIaG1wbEJnSU80UFVJS1J6ZVAxOHpIQmE0QzhDalNCTFV6SmNhbW4wUlV4YmRvRUcwQlc2eDFpNnM4UUJZRlZIQnFqampTRDFjdUVkNHNiN1BuLW9tNVdZMzlsdzhrX1RNTXBVbkFCMm8zTGdub2xkZUpUZWNXSGFtZEkwZkxhWGVfRXlybGp2Z0cxMmtJY0FZNXkwblBk?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/with-hormuz-reopened-has-the-oil-shortage-turned-into-a-glut?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/saudi-crude-exports-from-gulf-hit-highest-since-iran-war-truce-report/3984278
- [20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-economy-adds-fewer-than-expected-57-000-jobs-in-june/3984359
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/why-has-trump-refused-to-renew-the-usmca-and-what-will-that-mean?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767783/medvedev-finska-ce-biti-medu-ciljevima-ruskog-nuklearnog-naoruzanja
- [23] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/kyrgyzstan-poprosil-sosednie-gosudarstva-i-belarus-pomoch-s-postavkami-topliva-90-benzina-strana-poluchala-iz-rossii
- [24] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-gelingt-weiterer-Schlag-gegen-russische-Oelindustrie-id31038777.html
2026-07-02
2026-07-02
进展要点
- 美联储主席沃什称通胀风险较数周前下降，市场预期加息周期接近尾声，利好风险资产。
- 美国贸易代表明确USMCA不续签，但将继续双边谈判；北美贸易政策走向不确定。
- 印度与日本签署LNG安全协议，加强能源供应合作，降低单一来源风险。
- 中美关税减让进入落实阶段（历史背景），但USMCA冲突显示美国贸易保护主义倾向。
关联路径
美伊谈判乐观 / 油价下跌 / 降低通胀压力 / 美联储宽松空间增大
USMCA不续签 / 北美贸易不确定性 / 产业链转移成本上升 / 区域经济放缓
乌克兰打击俄炼油 / 俄成品油短缺 / 裂解价差扩大 / 全球炼化利润波动
霍尔木兹水雷 / 油轮通行受阻 / 运费飙升 / 原油到岸成本上升
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The New York Times / Deutsche Welle German News / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5DclJhM0xOZmJZWWVhemhJdmpBOWZzb0EtM1NiUEJtS2c3MGdsX2tqR3lpWjBPazg5QWE0LXR0X01VNVdqNk9kUDhIenB6NXRWR1RpeVVRTTBWc19fUjdTV0prSW53UWtJNnVKTXR3U2NGU3djR3Jv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702090822jwc
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651050.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20zgjzz0e4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-declines-to-renew-usmca-trade-pact-with-mexico-canada/a-77793686?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-takes-the-war-to-moscow-why-kyiv-unleashed-its-biggest-attacks-after-g7-summit/articleshow/132114028.cms
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/how-war-on-iran-changed-the-global-energy-sector-forever?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1078404/selat-hormuz-masih-dipenuhi-ranjau-pembersihan-perlu-2-bulan
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260702/172a0a8c075a4de388ee2f69eb4649a2/c.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/de/benzinkrise-in-russland-ukraine-setzt-putin-unter-druck/a-77776237?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-defence-minister-says-troops-to-stay-indefinitely-in-lebanon-syria-gaza/article71171573.ece
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651036.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702063728bit
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260702053914jcI
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPWFRJMk44c05WbExLd0NkcUJOQ05NUWI0U1N6YzBkSmNQVFlRMl9MLVIzaHRMY25hZE5PQUNuWktOMTJQUFdOODR5N0xYN3dIVUhpMUtzTzFIdk1WMFJ3MVptY3RsREM5QjRQRzZxZ3JTU3NscEdPUlRPeVFHaHRoZ05xN2dsZDZtLUVRNXNVZHlrVU1JU3FKSG5xSWN0UVdjN3hZaVRTbWhHYVk?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNWkZYV0pQcGtwWU8xYlNxQVJKNmxyc05LWWd3RnQ2M21VNTIta21JQ2puNF9EdXlqWTRPMHZqT3hOVE5Sa3o2NExGaGtxcmJHbGdCVzVEblVJeWpITGpRQkFxU0J0eTN0c2RuY04zYm1wZVNCX0c4NkJrVXZXR3IyVDBRUW5faXNiRnZPd2lmcmxOWkNPeHhDQzhQeU9xWVR3THRaaTY0OVM?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/us-says-it-wont-agree-to-renew-usmca?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-drop-in-prices-of-commercial-lpg-cylinders-aviation-turbine-fuel-as-west-asia-conflict-eases/article71171543.ece
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/shipping-companies-unions-still-consider-hormuz-a-warzone/article71171371.ece
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/7/1/is-ukraines-campaign-of-targeting-russian-refineries-working?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/business/kevin-warsh-inflation-ecb.html
- [23] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-japan-to-sign-lng-security-pact-during-pm-modi-takaichi-bilateral/articleshow/132117357.cms
2026-07-01
2026-07-01
进展要点
- 美联储鹰派立场与日本央行宽松预期差持续扩大，美元仍有上行空间
- 欧盟关税政策调整：取消150欧元免税门槛，后续可能扩大范围至其他消费品
- 印度调整成品油出口关税：柴油ATF降税、汽油涨税，短期影响区域炼厂利润
- 美国对伊制裁执行策略不明：解除封锁言论与财长表态矛盾，需关注官方澄清
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡不确定性 / 油价波动率↑ / 能源板块避险
乌克兰打击俄炼厂 / 俄罗斯汽油短缺 / 国际汽油价格↑ / 通胀预期
美元走强 / 日元、韩元贬值 / 新兴市场资金外流 / 风险资产承压
欧盟关税 / 亚洲电商成本上升 / 消费品价格↑ / 全球贸易摩擦风险
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Global Issues News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News Agency / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202607010850442qy
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-01/10650307.shtml
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/ready-for-war-iran-draws-red-line-for-us-says-no-final-talks-until-mou-terms-are-met/articleshow/132101599.cms
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNZEdXXzVMUmJGZERrSXRVNF9LOTdhOUxtZXVtaDFsem1BWlVFRFp5cXc4bTh2NzdPaE5tczBLeEVwNmNjNHRIS1pLYUpNWjRldFpxRl9HaU9EUndraFZMSDlYOHJxbm1lWUx2ckxBR3F6MGgxSEc2NlQ5U3p3LUh3ZVVFOWtSWkU4ZXZrakdR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/30/russias-fuel-crisis-deepens-following-ukrainian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/30/43450
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/business/surge-in-ship-traffic-across-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-oman-talk/article71166788.ece
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-hits-40-low-clock-010137784.html
- [10] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5629572/menkeu-as-klaim-iran-belum-bisa-jual-minyak-ke-pembeli-selain-china
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260701001700320
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/temu-shein-co-auf-billiglieferungen-aus-asien-wird-jetzt-zoll-faellig-a-1d7879a6-f2a6-4a55-b808-5be665d0b3c2
- [13] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/free-navigation-in-hormuz-essential-pm-modi-to-iran-president-masoud-pezeshkian/articleshow/132101358.cms
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxQb2p2djNjY0JQWEFJd3pmRGNkdXlMU1lWRzZsdnpNS0lveUZkTXMtSVpySmtKOFQ2NjZmaXNodWxHcjNlY2dINTROcnQ3elVCbUoyMkc0TTdEWGhjWm4wNEwycm54ZnllVkhSSEt2NHlYeVpxVTFMN1RVV0ZNcVJWVUNLZWNkeG5RSDh0M293dUs?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWU5DMS1mNG9RNm8yTTkzclFNMWVNRmtCNmI0M1kxdEF4RkdrTlJBV1lCeTFpUGVFcDVRRzdoSDZBYkJYbWRKaEJOWTBwREZUS3ZEMFlCYWU3N2F3eGREWHJBM0l4Q09lLWItS3VvenpzUjlJbTAyc0pzNi1zaVNKS1FwTTF3MUkxX2FTX1k0LUcyTm4xMkxscmd3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260701062203CdI
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/export-duty-on-diesel-atf-reduced-petrol-increased/article71167106.ece
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/30/how-severe-is-russias-energy-shortage-because-of-ukrainian-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260630222930ztm
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/hands-off-strait-of-hormuz-iran-says-foreign-intervention-will-only-complicate-issues/articleshow/132093679.cms
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/1/iran-war-live-qatars-pm-meets-us-envoys-tehran-holds-firm-on-conditions?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-01/10650316.shtml
2026-06-30
2026-06-30
进展要点
- 美伊技术谈判若重启，优先议题为霍尔木兹海峡控制权，但双方在通行费与核检查上僵持不下。
- 日本财务省或在外汇市场进行口头干预甚至直接入场，日元贬值速度是关键。
- 美联储独立性受政治挑战，但最高法院暂时维持原状；后续需关注9月利率决议前的政治动向。
- 印度政府可能出台抗旱补贴或调整农作物出口政策以缓解干旱冲击。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应减少5% / 油价跳涨至100美元以上
美伊冲突 / 风险溢价扩散 / 新兴市场股汇承压
日元贬值 / 亚洲出口竞争加剧 / 贸易伙伴货币联动走弱
委内瑞拉地震 / 重质原油减产 / 炼厂原料紧张
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Der Spiegel International / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Times of India / BBC News (Top) / ABC News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQMVpLSXJnM0gxVVF5Um5raVAzNVVkdGdTRVRqallDVjBXYlhMWGZiTWdhTUdHWWY0enFRcHYwbkRjLXBTQV8zdEdVTjFUTGU1LWdJZTZjd3RNSko4NDAxdWFHVkZqZDlETGF6RjZSM21ITWs5akYwZU5XelYzSklIYXliRW5IN1JZVWdZeg?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606300651257SU
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deliver-conflicting-reports-on-fresh-peace-talks/live-77746775?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-iran-has-made-it-very-clear-that-there-are-new-rules-analyst-says
- [5] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5628112/iran-menolak-rencana-prancis-bersihkan-ranjau-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-die-iraner-verteidigen-ihr-bestes-druckmittel-a-9d50f451-10b2-4e68-99f6-a2118a92ede5
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-30/10649607.shtml
- [8] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/29/43441
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/trump-fire-fed-governor-cook.html
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/42-rain-deficit-this-june-is-set-to-be-indias-3rd-driest-in-100-years/articleshow/132079606.cms
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyw31zvpgmo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/supreme-court-blocks-trump-now-firing-fed-board/story?id=134256258
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5Vdlc0SjRVXzVDN2NWNDhNQUM4c3RIY1F1T084VjRSbXBFdTB6QkRHcFNpSno1T2Z3djh5eUtWNC11NmtQcUJRWWRRX1BPZ2VrRDZCaXJR?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQOGNKTl9zUll6dG5Td3ZkWGtWRW5ZYXVGR2ZudGZUeWR5dVdLcWt3bzB6eS1VQ1hMMjBreEpmc1ZMR0VOeVZubjBPUXBlUEZOZ2lCWnFvcENZMkRyeXh6SzNHRGJVYWxtazAtSXotQ2lhUkJraUhfblppM1RXZUY5YTlsUU9yMkptdGYtZVc3VzgzZGZ5M1FHOE5lTm9hZFlnS2lGeFlRZ0hSNFVtVm1YdlZMcU1PaFF1RGNHc1lpYw?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260630033107CD0
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260630004449cpD
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260629-why-oman-has-become-a-key-diplomatic-player-in-mideast-war
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260629-hostilit%C3%A9s-en-pause-entre-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-et-washington-premi%C3%A8re-rencontre-irano-omanaise-sur-ormuz
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-30/10649623.shtml
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/no-negotiation-at-any-level-iran-refutes-donald-trumps-claim-of-planned-us-talks-in-doha/articleshow/132079125.cms
2026-06-29
2026-06-29
进展要点
- 30日多哈谈判：美伊能否就海峡通行权与停火达成框架协议
- 伊朗坚持海峡控制权，美国要求自由通行，双方立场差距较大
- 美国副总统万斯强硬表态，伊朗威胁中止外交，政策走向不确定
关联路径
伊朗威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 石油供应中断预期 / 油价上涨
美伊谈判停火 / 地缘风险溢价回落 / 油价下跌
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 成品油供应短缺 / 全球柴油 / 汽油价格走强
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / RT News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260628-iran-threatens-to-halt-talks-after-fresh-us-strikes-attacks-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/araghchi-strait-of-hormuz-remains-under-iranian-control-for-30-days?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-following-renewed-us-233412520.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260629/72c7151f0d5a44ac84fb6e294a46d4f2/c.html
- [5] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-and-iran-agree-to-halt-strikes-plan-doha-talks-over-hormuz-dispute-axios-reports/article71159808.ece
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-29/10648990.shtml
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260629065045N2l
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNUjMzVkxxSXh2OVNqNEhNQ0V3Njh5cGdkYnE4VUdwaE5xRU1hRzdvXzRmQXpNQ1NmdE9BbDAwXzBWa05KbnlDU2xLRVRiY2NpdWN1T1RFSk16cHBjSlR6Q3lER1FNblpLd1ZJRlU1QmdTejNpTU12NGxYenRWRlB3aVREX21RRVdwaXkxdVBvM2doTEdZdXpJRE9kZVNMS01WZ2xfU2U1cVk?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-warns-ships-not-to-bypass-its-chosen-hormuz-route/article71159031.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/world/europe/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-peace-talks.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-raeumt-treibstoffmangel-nach-ukrainischen-angriffen-ein-a-a69147bc-7d0e-47a7-81d8-83520968cab7
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642317-us-nature-break-promises-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260628-tehran-targets-bahrain-and-kuwait-after-us-attacks
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260628/6761e481d6c644cf8ee679f0d882e578/c.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/29/iran-war-live-tehran-insists-on-control-of-hormuz-amid-reports-of-us-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260628-le-contr%C3%B4le-et-la-mon%C3%A9tarisation-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-au-coeur-des-discussions-%C3%A0-venir
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-forcing-u-escalation-trap-175146972.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQcDBTQkFEbzlzV3FGUXhBeks0Wm5CV2RIU0J4aFcwTl9jRFRNeHRNbkxzVEZNa3ZNSTcwS1FDZm5PM3RDbVJuMFc0bWRwR1hhSlZFVGlMSkdvOC1GcnlLUWpUbjQ0aFlMYWN3X0gtdVBUWHZYSHNKR3BKelJtdUZ1dUpnTWVubU1BOWowd1N3aE1kckE1Uklya1huN25iLUxYM2Q5N0JtcVY?oc=5
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260629052746BCz
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFAzS1lkbHd5RDY0ZUY3bFB2OWgySDBmaUVMU0xzXzV6QXZucTNzTTgyelJuMloyOFpBdmNpOWtmVkFvSXMya3RfUGtzNUl0NlFiaGJyY0paTkNKYm5Md2RVZU5pUUZYSDUxc3ZwNXozdTdDZGdMZDJR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/us-and-iran-trade-strikes-days-after-peace-agreement?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukrainian-strike-sets-fire-oil-101732043.html
2026-06-28
2026-06-28
进展要点
- 美伊临时停火协议基本破裂，短期内无谈判迹象。
- 特朗普可能授权进一步军事行动，但存在升级失控风险。
- 欧盟面临美国100%关税威胁，或将启动反制程序。
关联路径
美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 航运中断 / 原油及LNG供给短缺 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
特朗普关税威胁 / 美欧贸易战升级 / 全球贸易量萎缩 / 风险资产抛售
地缘风险升级 / 避险情绪 / 资金涌入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产承压
海峡通行费传言 / 能源运输成本上升 / 相关大宗商品期货上涨
来源
Valor Econômico Politics / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / RT News / BBC News (Top) / ORF.at News / A News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / Die Presse / Mehr News Agency / Verslo žinios / Sud Ouest
参考链接
- [1] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/06/27/eua-realizam-novos-ataques-contra-o-ir.ghtml
- [2] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-06-26/trump-blames-iran-for-drone-strike-on-cargo-ship-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-says-hits-us-linked-092540489.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/27/us-launches-second-night-of-strikes-against-iran-after-ship-struck-by-drone?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-warns-tehran-as-us-military-strikes-multiple-targets-in-iran/article71156595.ece
- [6] https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-threatens-100-tax-european-imports-countries-impose-134249597
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606280834390nl
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-tensions-flare-up-us-strikes-iran-after-second-ceasefire-violation/articleshow/132044147.cms
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/642299-us-new-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxdwkgqgq0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3434606
- [12] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/06/27/us-conducts-further-strikes-on-iran-centcom
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/us-carries-out-additional-strikes-on-iran/live-77729995?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260627-iran-us-trade-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-navigating-the-guardian-angel-route
- [15] https://www.diepresse.com/33395449/der-iran-deal-steht-auf-der-kippe
- [16] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245641/Iran-may-collect-fees-for-Strait-of-Hormuz-Rezaei
- [17] https://www.vz.lt/verslo-aplinka/2026/06/27/hormuzo-sasiauryje-apsaudytas-naftos-tanklaivis-586714
- [18] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/moyen-orient/direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-americains-frappent-l-iran-qui-riposte-israel-continue-a-pilonner-le-sud-liban-le-point-samedi-27-juin-29686404.php
- [19] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/06/27/novo-navio-atingido-em-ormuz-enquanto-ira-e-eua-trocam-ataques-na-pior-escalada-desde-acordo-de-paz.ghtml
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-carries-fresh-strikes-against-222840485.html
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260628065137CwC
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260628070258FKf
- [23] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245631/Oman-says-Hormuz-Strait-not-to-return-to-its-pre-war-status
2026-06-27
2026-06-27
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步制裁伊朗或扩大军事行动
- CPTPP成员国可能协调释放战略石油储备
- 欧洲国家或推迟数字服务税以避免关税
- 中国可能推动海峡通行多边协调机制
关联路径
美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断 / 原油 / LNG供应风险 / 能源价格波动
特朗普关税威胁 / 跨大西洋贸易摩擦 / 全球风险偏好下降
委内瑞拉地震 / 石油生产中断 / 重质油供应收紧
伊朗打击美军基地 / 中东战争扩大 / 资产全面避险
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / RT News / Die Zeit Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global Issues News / UK Government Policy Papers and Consultations / Times of India / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / El País Internacional / ANTARA News Jawa Timur
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPbDlLTkhYQkV2OWVHSEJNangxWWRNcWwwQkYxWXV4Q1c3UF94TWNFVzlzVUdPYkRvLWp4Yjh6TE5NYW53TTRhVm9rNUktNHlkRGFwcHFTREFoYnljZkUxbktLcG5HNmd3VWl3TFZWRlB0aVpJTkFjazZMaC1VaktWU3FnUGxHSkd6dm1zWHN3N1pvSmxHN1pLTl9RVUcyX0U?oc=5
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/briefing/us-military-strikes-iran.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260626-middle-east-war-us-strikes-iran-trump-ceasefire-violated
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-iran-usa-israel-conflict-washington-tehran-peace-deal-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz-live-updates-june-26-2026/article71149347.ece
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/642253-us-military-conducts-strikes-against-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/26/us-militaer-haben-angriffe-gegen-iran-durchgefuehrt
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/26/us-strikes-iran-in-response-to-drone-strike-on-commercial-ship?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260627083927x80
- [9] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/26/43421
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-27/10648216.shtml
- [11] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-joint-ministerial-statement-on-energy-security-and-supply-chains-for-essential-energy-products-and-other-impacted-products
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-military-conducts-strikes-on-iran-hours-after-trumps-foolish-violation-warning-over-hormuz-attack/articleshow/132024813.cms
- [13] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4rd71411ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39y79g7gzko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260627/2a72f4f3dcc64d54811994addef844e1/c.html
- [16] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-26/iran-trata-de-mantener-el-control-sobre-ormuz-mientras-trump-le-acusa-de-violar-el-alto-el-fuego.html
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1077148/iran-sebut-pelayaran-hormuz-tidak-dapat-dijamin-tanpa-koordinasi
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260627081704OxX
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260627081109tf5
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260626-us-strikes-iran-after-trump-says-ceasefire-was-violated
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260626-trump-threatens-100-tariffs-on-europe-if-countries-impose-tax-on-us-digital-services
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-strike-on-iran-donald-trump-hormuz-strait-june-27-2026/article71152185.ece
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/politik/2026-06/us-militaer-greift-ziele-im-iran-trotz-vereinbarter-waffenruhe-an
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg590wqxwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-06-26
2026-06-26
进展要点
- 美国与海湾国家联合声明要求伊朗重开海峡并反对收费，但伊朗可能继续以袭击施压。
- 美伊谈判聚焦海峡管理与制裁解除，但袭击事件削弱信任。
- 特朗普政府继续贸易保护主义，不续签USMCA，可能对加拿大墨西哥加征新关税。
- 联合国可能加强霍尔木兹海峡护航与撤离协调。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧。
委内瑞拉地震 / 油气生产中断 / 原油供应收紧 / 油价上涨输入型通胀。
USMCA不续签 / 北美贸易不确定性 / 加墨经济衰退风险 / 避险情绪。
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东全面战争风险 / 油价风险溢价 / 全球风险资产抛售。
来源
Xinhua World / n-tv Politik / Sky News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Google News - World / C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / The Independent / RT News / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Strasse-von-Hormus-nach-Schiffsangriff-zeitweise-geschlossen-id31014682.html
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/un-suspends-strait-of-hormuz-evacuation-after-ship-hit-by-projectile-13557819
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/26/iran-war-live-israel-attacks-lebanon-as-netanyahu-says-troops-to-stay?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137757-iran-atakuvav-civilne-sudno-v-ormuzkij-protoci.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE95V3NFS3M5NHpEM1c3cDZFbFAxeU9rQ3JmaFUyVzlxOWtnTkNuY0VZeURhNjl3bk94dG1JaTJ4OG16dG9RendIeklId0h5Y1lGMmV3bnpuUTZrTEROUkJwU09qdkhxR0hmUXFPSTFMcm8?oc=5
- [6] https://cdhowe.org/publication/north-american-free-trade-is-gone-dead-and-buried
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwg9np904qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/daily-commercial-vessel-traffic-in-strait-of-hormuz-hits-post-war-high/3978114
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/un-agency-says-pauses-hormuz-180527069.html
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/25/british-military-says-cargo-ship-hit-by-projectile-off-oman-near-un-approved-route-for-strait-of-hormuz
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-earthquake-death-toll-missing-magnitude-b3003101.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/6fc8b99c6a274ace906e96c21e462d1a/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642124-iran-us-hormuz-dispute/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5623523/menlu-as-sebut-negara-negara-teluk-tolak-biaya-tarif-atas-selat-hormuz
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOb2hvUU8ta3ZNNEpHLXViODlSdk1odzlhUUtPLUtLWkV3ZWtaVi02RmxKbTdjbnNGUjk2SVhxQWVwVjdDbURXdUMyWW9vX2R2Y1V2bWZKLVpnLWc4eWJsUDd0RW5sZWxYTFMzZ1RKNE5vSTFMUkUtOG50LTVJM3NRaW5ERXdnUmhwNHhjYWo2enhOWENiQWJTWHdzNnhfTXEyNWNYbEVobzh1a2Z2RjdZ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNbEVHVTRvRDdQV0h4aHloNU1NUjJwSVNVTTlhY2pjSF83aEZXVWo3QXpQbi1QdXctRFc3dmxRODluMnlqSEJlLTdZQTJrTmF2Z19kcWZfd0ZlTEtLQTl6akQxRjBUYVB4eGFBd0lzbi0tTEU0NEdYMm1xRUYyMG44UklkVmpMMUhHM2YxcnlJamhRcFlEcElhb0FjbzdQSnJsaExpaVk2aGdkNTNZajd1bjZR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-gulf-states-call-for-reopening-hormuz-reject-any-tolls-fees-or-attempts-to-assert-control-over-waterway/3978163
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-thursday-25-june-2026-b3003096.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/featured-documentaries/2026/6/25/iran-israel-and-the-bomb?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/oman-backs-iran-us-deal-says-future-hormuz-transit-will-be-fee-free/3977936
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/45341251187b4f638ce2cdb87dab7551/c.html
2026-06-25
2026-06-25
进展要点
- 美伊将于6月30日继续核谈判，涉及核查机制和海峡通航安排。
- 美国国会可能就战争资金展开辩论，影响中东政策走向。
- 美国继续施压伊朗禁止收费，但伊朗与阿曼的联合收费方案仍在推进。
- 乌克兰获得先发制人打击授权，俄乌能源战线进一步扩大。
关联路径
霍尔木兹通行恢复 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期回落 / 美联储加息预期调整
俄乌能源打击 / 天然气供应风险 / 欧洲能源溢价 / 经济衰退风险
美元走强 / 金价承压 / 避险资金流入美元资产 / 新兴市场资本外流
伊朗制裁放松 / 原油供应增加 / OPEC+协调压力 / 油价波动
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260624/faf92e11b67d4988acd7063698ca873e/c.html
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260625/rubio-says-tolls-on-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-happen?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOcUNoNDdBVEJHd28tNzQ1aHNNRERxZE9Rd0pUX2NON3kyOXhaSmkyV0pNdXVlZlZSUnp0bmppSTVHT1VXakxXODc3eERiUEJVNElnTUd1QW5MZUVmemVnTlF1MUVpbzV1NmdrSTFKRjVSMTNJYzFhdmtXOGg5azRvSmotQktTVkZIX3hNbDdWdk42WFh0QVk3MUV6b1pzMllNVWJmUS1JVmhZNVNPZmxRVmVwTkQtbF9W?oc=5
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260625/0fb0dd02789b41ac88e962f882310d1a/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/06-24/10646728.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-energy-secretary-says-20m-barrels-of-oil-exited-hormuz-in-last-24-hours/3977057
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/counting-the-cost/2026/6/24/has-the-worst-of-the-hormuz-crisis-passed?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/iran-scrambles-to-move-estimated-8.5bn-in-oil-as-us-eases-sanctions
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4137223-cini-na-zoloto-vperse-za-dovgij-cas-vpali-nizce-4000-za-unciu.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642051-no-war-no-peace-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eydwldzdjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-doruchyv-zsu-byty-na-vyperedzhennia-po-obiektakh-yaki-rf-vykorystovuie-dlia-masshtabuvannia-viiny
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPeUpTSE5UMUdXb1pOaEc0QUxMS0R4R21sdXRudXJMQTRRQUhia0hpczY5Y2gxUzR4djlpQkNlUTBqcC1ZT0VZUDV5UFBnY2YzRC1vMDZNbXpVdFozRHk2X0tpRTJteTJHbkIxN3FCUUxLQ1lETXg3UF9Td0FKWmo0OHJJRlMtUk1VdEl3LWdzWXJVaXFwZVpWag?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-exported-40m-barrels-of-crude-since-june-15-tankertrackers-says/3976997
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/oil-prices-extend-losses-as-brent-hits-pre-conflict-low-on-easing-hormuz-concerns/3976930
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/6981cb5f350545cd89e1f5de72a93b18/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137206-iran-zapevniv-ssa-so-ne-stague-platu-za-prohid-cerez-ormuzku-protoku-tramp.html
- [19] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260624/trump-says-assured-by-iran-no-tolls-to-be-charged-at-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPaXU3bmV4YUtuUEZYbDMyYjB6dG9ZQ1NIRjB2bHhqQ3RtbkJFTjl0M3UwVTViSExsN05KT2tiV0tZd0VJNnhKbzVpdGJtWkpzSjdfQU1nNGdpVHlMYkdkM3l1MzVQeksyWEJzdEhSMFE5N3hLamVKUzI4aEYwMEhKbkFLeE4tSFlEMjlTNmtwUlA0eHBVNU9kaktENmU0YnU3ZU5WLVZPd2g5MVJqU0llUw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/4aaf85f712de49798d50cfa96ba21583/c.html
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/24/japan-weighs-deploying-forces-to-demine-the-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-25/10646731.shtml
- [24] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137263-katar-planue-vidnoviti-virobnictvo-spg-protagom-kilkoh-tizniv.html
- [25] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-detains-2-japanese-over-alleged-rare-earth-export-control-breach
2026-06-24
2026-06-24
进展要点
- 美伊瑞士谈判预计继续，但通行费为分歧焦点，短期难突破
- 美国对俄能源制裁可能升级，但欧盟进口增加削弱效果，制裁执行面临困难
- 特朗普关税政策：最高法院推翻旧依据后，政府寻求新法律基础，贸易摩擦再起
- 伊朗资产解冻两月窗口期，各方争夺资金流向（食品vs其他）
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡争议 / 油轮保险 / 运价飙升 / 能源成本传导至全球通胀
乌克兰袭击炼油厂 / 俄罗斯汽油短缺 / 成品油市场收紧 / 新兴市场进口成本增加
美国参议院约束战争 vs. 五角大楼经费申请 / 政策不确定性 / 风险资产波动率上升
伊朗资产解冻 / 原油出口增加 / OPEC+产量博弈 / 油价下行风险
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / BBC News (Top) / Die Presse / La Libre - International Europe / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / DW German News Service / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/un-starts-evacuating-11000-stranded-sailors-from-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNUEhPMFVsd1lLSFU1bXQ0TzBxLVRNdU5RbXRkZlN3aVNBQXpiajR4ZXNxMlY1YkhUcGF0OWV5eFIwOW1xdDh3ME82X1QteF9BM1hBYnhvZ3FaZFJITi1PakFsajBma3ljWE9SNmYtQktKYVYybTlUdDBXOGZ2Yi0yNFIwQlpPRGpZOHNqMGpvcw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/iran-strait-of-hormuz-marco-rubio-keir-starmer-british-b1287320.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/de/teheran-iran-wird-straße-von-hormus-verwalten/a-77667212?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24yr796emzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.diepresse.com/32460710/us-aussenminister-rubio-werden-keine-durchfahrtsgebuehren-fuer-hormuz-akzeptieren
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10646007.shtml
- [8] https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/guerre-ukraine-russie/2026/06/23/lukraine-met-la-russie-a-mal-en-visant-ses-raffineries-petrolieres-EPPFHLLF2RHHPEEVROSKWKNC6E
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/latest-pentagon-asks-congress-roughly-125943212.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260623/9d0c0295538e4810be1c22f104c67b91/c.html
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4136940-senat-ssa-pidtrimav-rezoluciu-aka-zobovazue-trampa-pripiniti-voenni-dii-proti-iranu.html
- [12] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-crimea-shortages-putin-pressure-rcna351328
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-buv-vrazhenyi-ukrainskymy-udaramy-vhlyb-rosii-ta-pohodyvsia-na-novi-sanktsii-ft
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/china-plans-postwar-aid-for-iran-with-eye-on-energy-supply
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/23/un-begins-evacuation-of-11000-sailors-stranded-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNUVNPcElCT1VQZnphbHBYdzZYNmY5Q0JBTnZfbUpjNVZCQzhLSURFbDlVLS1kYWpCc2xUTkRtaThBOG01WWxfLWlNZnBFaklrbnY5Z25tM0tGSHFjX0NnRzVwRkJYVUZCUm5vY242cVFBMmswNmhXMlI3Qy1HQ2s2VC1Fbmo1RFhhZEthekdQWDdaVjhJdVJYT2VhQURYdGdfcWdsdnJlelZPMmtiR3QwWFl3?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNR2hHa0NIT2RJMkFOTmhXUzFUOHVFTFdIUmVnQ2RGVmVWbms1UzJNaDhwWUdWT2NJbk9USGVncGV5VktVUXE2Unc4dkYyNUczZld4TFRTbEdSNEtZSjJSeldsaXkxNjRfT2hLOVg1MkZlMzY3cmRmRzhDY3VnZmNwMDJqMGFpRHFHb2M3cEQ4eGxRWnYyaEQ0TU05S0w5d1pwS2VXVVNkbjMyWElISGkzaUVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx23rnzdgl8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [21] https://unn.ua/news/yes-u-travni-zbilshyv-zakupivli-rosiiskoho-zph-popry-obmezhennia-crea
- [22] https://unn.ua/news/yes-ne-maie-kupuvaty-haz-i-naftu-v-rf-yakshcho-khoche-zmusyty-putina-do-perehovoriv-hlava-mzs-italii
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/india-prepares-contingency-plans-due-to-weak-monsoon-season?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy06495y2lko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://www.diepresse.com/32195277/neue-trump-zoelle-das-sind-die-moeglichen-gewinner-und-verlierer-der-deals
- [26] https://www.diepresse.com/32177719/benzinkrise-regt-die-russen-auf-und-setzt-putin-unter-druck
2026-06-23
2026-06-23
进展要点
- 美国对伊石油制裁豁免暂定60天，若伊朗未兑现核检查承诺，豁免可能不续期。
- 美伊最终协议路线图：60天内达成，但国内政治阻力（美国国会、伊朗强硬派）仍存。
- 中国稀土出口管制旨在反制美国技术封锁，短期内双方谈判窗口狭窄。
- 卡塔尔需评估LNG设施损坏程度，可能影响全球天然气供应安全政策。
关联路径
美国对伊制裁豁免 / 伊朗石油出口增加 / 全球原油供应上升 / 油价下跌
卡塔尔LNG爆炸 / 全球LNG供给减少 / 亚洲 / 欧洲气价上行
中国稀土出口管制 / 稀土供应紧张 / 清洁能源及军工成本上升
乌克兰袭击俄炼厂 / 俄罗斯成品油出口下降 / 柴油 / 汽油裂解价差扩大
来源
China News Service / Index.hu - Külföld / Il Fatto Quotidiano / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Mehr News Agency / NPR Politics / Jornal Económico / Yahoo News - World / SVT Nyheter / Rador News Agency / Meduza / Valor Econômico Politics / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Times of India / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/iran-izrael-libanon-hezbollah-egyesult-allamok-tuzszunet-hormuzi-szoros-beke-donald-trump-benjamin-netanjahu
- [2] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/sanzioni-petrolio-iraniano-usa-sospese-notizie/8426689
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQM1d6VF85bFlSZ1NnQnVEVFY5QmNzWklpWUtjUDQxd2ZWNUdmLWUtMi1JSUhwdnltMy04dkZaRi1kbHJDcmFXNzE2enVEUWNKOFUza0doZzFsMUx6emxlbVRrSVlyTHlMamVrOXFiR1dLNF9JLTBxdF9xRXZIdTE0WGF3?oc=5
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vy3nr63gxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10645322.shtml
- [6] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245525/China-imposes-fresh-sanctions-on-56-US-firms
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/06/21/g-s1-129222/us-iran-deal-lebanon-israel-strait-hormuz-jd-vance
- [8] https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/feed
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--qatar-explosion-015432903.html
- [10] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/explosion-vid-industrizon-i-qatar
- [11] https://www.rador.ro/2026/06/22/statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august
- [12] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/22/v-katare-proizoshel-vzryv-na-krupneyshem-zavode-po-pererabotke-szhizhennogo-gaza-pogibli-13-chelovek-desyatki-raneny
- [13] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/06/22/petroleo-tem-forte-recuo-com-avanco-diplomatico-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000251315
- [15] https://www.thehindu.com/business/us-waives-sanctions-on-iranian-oil-ships/article71134513.ece
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-eases-oil-sanctions-on-iran-after-vance-says-it-has-agreed-to-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131916209.cms
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/641977-iran-learned-to-stop-worrying/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-partially-lifts-iran-oil-sanctions-amid-encouraging-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.dw.com/en/us-waives-iran-oil-sanctions-citing-progress-in-talks/live-77653016?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [20] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/22/egyesult-allamok-iran-koolaj-szankciok-mentesites
- [21] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/donald-trump-iran-izrael-egyesult-allamok-jd-vance-tuzszunet-targyalas-beke-delegacio-svajc-libanon-hezbollah
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXkFVX3lxTE9uZDBib00zTHk3QkFwR1BmbUZWdkJZT0ctTHdwdDAtOE9rNnlPWWtOUmlrQU1ONmlGaWFFVjI0Wk5hSHhJZUJRbm1ZMUtTbVJFaE9OMU95NFEtVTNKZEE?oc=5
- [23] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/ucraina-la-guerra-al-petrolio-di-putin-arriva-fino-in-siberia-colpita-una-raffineria-russa-a-2mila-km-dal-confine/8426521
- [24] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/22/dostignut-obnadezhivayuschiy-progress-v-shveytsarii-proshel-pervyy-raund-peregovorov-ssha-i-irana
- [25] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/china-targets-us-rare-earth-021542815.html
- [26] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/u-authorizes-iranian-oil-sales-162616323.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOUU9JUFRuQUZpYXZHOW41LXpUcGJGUmh1c2J2Mkk2Tm5FbUROWVB5WllmdWMzalk2dDNDLXh2MDBWOVk1MmRmSEIwQWE4Z2dJcGd3U0J5VGR1MnJKR0VJaE84ak9LSEhVU0s3eWJjZjZzRjhWMWdRWEhtNUxuODNITUJ6OHdsV3VuUU9IYkpEUnJMMG0yWWl2NElBOENRUndNdENv0gGoAUFVX3lxTE80M3kxY0J3d2lVRklaSVUybGtNQjdqVkF2VWJza3ctSmRoamdnMjE0VktNM2l2ZmdXZkRFMEplYVJCWFJBSnViVHBqMFkySFNPemw5QzlpWGdfV05QZmNUb1BXeGJxS0ZTY2Z0RU4yRXZ3Mk9wTXdhc1RiVVhfcFFmUFFWMXpEcjNLOGE0YkZUendHSllDcUJhZUFSbndPRWFENDZ0WVNsNg?oc=5
- [28] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000200315
2026-06-22
2026-06-22
进展要点
- 美联储可能因能源和食品通胀压力维持鹰派立场
- 欧洲央行关注能源冲击对经济的拖累，不排除紧急流动性工具
- 美国可能加大中东军事存在，确保海峡通行安全
- OPEC+若召开紧急会议，增产空间有限但仍需关注
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温
卡塔尔LNG爆炸 / LNG供应紧张 / 亚洲能源价格上行 / 贸易赤字恶化
美伊谈判中断 / 地缘风险溢价维持高位 / 资金涌入避险资产
化肥价格上涨 / 粮食生产成本上升 / 食品通胀 / 消费支出放缓
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / RT News / Google News - World / Times of India / ANTARA News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Die Zeit Politics / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/6/21/whats-next-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260621-fermeture-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-qu-est-ce-que-cela-implique-pour-les-marins-sur-place
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/641944-qatar-lng-blast-fire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNRWxtYWxIa0RhbldFTENsNlZndFdweFBoWlhoWFkxWXY0RVZ0SUIxT3dDNVNQSlVjNjlPQ3JEZHVqa0FyM3hSRVBXUFUxYXJ6T1VxQ3NMeV9wX1F6TldlR0RHUThTb0JDMmFpN18zRmNIcGZfWENjMkpQTVFVU3B5RjlQc05sZEI1YUdHNDRUUTcwSE5NWEZHSGRXcUM?oc=5
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/you-wont-make-it-back-to-your-country-amid-us-iran-talks-trump-warns-tehran-against-closing-strait-of-hormuz/articleshow/131894037.cms
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5617119/trump-tak-ada-pungutan-di-selat-hormuz
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260621205657HfU
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-us-begin-charging-204800472.html
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy0q41v1lzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/as-vance-meets-top-iranian-officials-in-switzerland-trump-threatens-tehran-from-afar/article71131391.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-22/10644712.shtml
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/business/oil-rises-amid-uncertainty-over-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-21/crimea-prohibe-la-venta-de-gasolina-a-civiles-y-empresas-ante-el-bloqueo-logrado-por-los-drones-ucranios.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-06/usa-iran-gespraeche-buergenstock-donald-trump-drohung-strasse-von-hormus
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/21/6a382733e85ece96668b45b2.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260621-what-s-the-state-of-the-strait
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcG5XRXhqYllSMDk1cko0aTRtX2dLWTFEVjMxYjhBVUh0WVZueEN4NEtLMUowNkVwNE1SRHFEUE5PMUhVY2o2MGJUbjEwMTlUalZrVzQtOUdxZG96YXFjc1c4LUFnaGtiMDFIeVdEaThKakJsdEJiVXZaX3ZHMFNDRk5R?oc=5
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-hit-harder-trump-threatens-fresh-military-action-against-iran-amid-switzerland-peace-talks/articleshow/131893832.cms
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/21/iran-u-s-launch-historic-peace-talks-with-60-day-roadmap?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/israeli-strikes-start-again-in-lebanon-after-several-hour-lull-amid-us-iran-talks
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260621231906eN2
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9AFBVV95cUxOQ0p4dkJLYlNGX3JSMjhGeFJtUXZhZHFvSWhmYXIxblIxTzlqbm5meTJVTS1kVGRBYm5LUzA4NjZxcFdFWHFnVFRTNENLaHZuamJRd01tTmQwcEdyNC1TTDc2Wko2ZWgzdXJqOUxJY3ZrXzE4UldsNUJ0SmplUkJYVXR4cFRGMDJxeE43M0hZbnoySFZ4M0MxMGNHQXJDcUJmR2FyZXVzbDJYbDlXNzRrRm1Dc2VJNU01OXcxS2ZqTFdvWTdoaXE4a2lWX3lRQTM2MjBLTHBDUnhiNld1MHZKWVV5YzZRcE1HMjY5bktTOExrYzRy?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/641945-us-iranian-talks-switzerland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/trump-threatens-iran-over-hezbollah-150657905.html
- [25] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ingredient-needed-pretty-much-food-140000111.html
- [26] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/21/6a37a407e4d4d8a0388b459f.html
2026-06-21
2026-06-21
进展要点
- 美伊谈判：若以色列不停火，伊朗可能拒绝实质性谈判，瑞士会谈很可能无果而终。
- 美国可能加快推动与沙特的安全协议以替代伊朗石油，并施压OPEC增产。
- 美国可能考虑使用战略石油储备或推动国会通过紧急能源法案。
关联路径
伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 全球石油供应锐减 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期与央行政策收紧
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 伊朗升级回应 / 美伊谈判夭折 / 全面地缘危机
能源价格飙升 / 海运与生产成本上涨 / 企业盈利下修 / 股市抛售
避险情绪 / 美元 / 黄金走强 / 新兴市场资本外流 / 债务风险上升
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Mehr News Agency / Index.hu - Külföld / NPR Politics / France 24 #2 / The Hindu BusinessLine / Yahoo News - World / Rador News Agency / The Independent / Kyiv Post / Meduza / Le Monde International / A Tarde / El País Internacional / The New Indian Express / n-tv Politik / Tagesschau / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/21/iran-war-live-vance-heads-to-switzerland-israel-kills-16-in-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOblNWVkhEOFJzaHNiYUloTjZYcWVuY2pTRkRuMDAwdTBFMV9obDVhdHA5UFNTUS1JVXBybWpXTFhDb1NWSktxeW1RTHdpRV80XzUwb1ZMMklFWWp1dVNmZHBOcEdGQW1YdU45UU5vaGJYNkFZb3FiNEI5amlheWRzejdSNnFJdG9lOEk5S3JRU3dPYlR1MUg1MzkwLXdPakxTenM1ZGkxZVhlMjZrRXF3VUpPdEprUnI4bTVOeA?oc=5
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyekkwm1mmo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245473/Iran-closes-Hormuz-Strait-after-US-Israel-violations-of-MoU
- [5] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/20/kozel-kelet-konfliktus-iran-izrael-hormuzi-szoros-lezaras-egyesult-allamok
- [6] https://www.npr.org/2026/06/20/nx-s1-5865006/fighting-lebanon-despite-ceasefire
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260620-iran-says-closed-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-deal-hits-obstacle-ahead-of-swiss-talks
- [8] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed-again-amid-ceasefire-breakdown-claims/article71126172.ece
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/iran-closes-strait-hormuz-over-181510075.html
- [10] https://www.rador.ro/2026/06/20/iranul-avertizeaza-navele-sa-nu-se-apropie-de-stramtoarea-ormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iranul-avertizeaza-navele-sa-nu-se-apropie-de-stramtoarea-ormuz
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-war-hormuz-ceasefire-trump-b2999658.html
- [12] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78617
- [13] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/20/iran-ob-yavil-chto-snova-zakryvaet-ormuzskiy-proliv
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/06/20/l-iran-annonce-fermer-de-nouveau-le-detroit-d-ormuz-en-reaction-aux-attaques-d-israel-au-liban_6705328_3210.html
- [15] https://atarde.com.br/mundo/ira-fecha-estreito-de-ormuz-em-resposta-a-ataques-de-israel-no-libano-1392758
- [16] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-20/iran-vuelve-a-cerrar-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-por-los-bombardeos-israelies-en-libano.html
- [17] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/20/iran-closes-hormuz-strait-as-israel-continues-attacks-on-lebanon-despite-ceasefire
- [18] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-gibt-erneute-Schliessung-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-bekannt-id30991426.html
- [19] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/hormus-gesperrt-iran-usa-100.html
- [20] https://orf.at/stories/3433910
- [21] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/20/6a369743fdddff40598b45ae.html
- [22] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/20/berichte-usa-und-iran-wollen-gespraeche-in-gang-bringen
- [23] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-says-it-s-closing-strait-of-hormuz-again/live-77634368?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [24] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1075427/iran-akan-tutup-selat-hormuz-tuding-as-ingkar-janji
- [25] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245478/Netanyahu-orders-military-to-cease-fire-after-Iran-warning
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/20/iran-shuts-strait-of-hormuz-as-israel-tests-mou-with-lebanon-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rador.ro/2026/06/20/iranul-inchide-din-nou-stramtoarea-ormuz-invocand-incalcarea-acordului-mehr-news/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iranul-inchide-din-nou-stramtoarea-ormuz-invocand-incalcarea-acordului-mehr-news
- [28] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strait-of-hormuz-deal-ceasefire-b2999541.html
2026-06-20
2026-06-20
进展要点
- 伊朗或继续通过海峡管理规则巩固控制力，但避免全面封锁
- 美国可能推动以色列与真主党停火执行，同时争取与伊朗重启谈判
- 俄罗斯将加大国内燃油调配，可能进一步限制出口以稳定国内供应
- 欧洲关注法国核电减产，可能加速能源储备或进口替代
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡新规 / 油轮延误 / 全球能源供给风险 / 油价上行
乌克兰无人机袭击俄炼油厂 / 莫斯科燃油短缺 / 全球汽油价格风险
中东停火执行 / 美伊谈判前景 / 地缘风险溢价回落 / 油价下行
伊朗制裁解除预期 / 未来石油供应增加 / 中长期油价承压
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / France 24 #2 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-20/10644042.shtml
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1gFBVV95cUxOQXlqcnpaR3o0Z1ZSYkJYeVVFVEFDSEJVUlpZenEwaFctMnF0djBzR21tSEhqbFYycU9fQU1mU1RnX3pwZ1h2bzlQb2hrdDBlaFBWdm1hREdLdGxNMFlGRmpzT2hSLURGTmg1TVh4VTdoeFRLX1ktOVFPQUl0ZGRWNnl4NjlLSXkxcWQwUWZReU92ZUJjQ2I2YjZ1VkZZT1otaEJ5em54dy0tbDA3VDBsLU9fUGtIeVhjUUhaXzRkNHNWeWY5TkN0eWYzZ1JpTjJfNHZGcHFB?oc=5
- [3] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615485/iran-perintahkan-penanganan-cepat-permohonan-melintasi-selat-hormuz
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004136J4S
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/petrol-shortages-and-oil-rain-bring-russia-ukraine-war-home-to-moscow?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/business/iran-us-hormuz-shipping.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyk7kkygj5o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/france-tries-to-cope-with-second-premature-heatwave-in-less-than-a-month
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/632840-nord-stream-ukrainian-narrative/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260619235105m1A
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004225eYP
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNdU5tQXdFTmhQaTBlNzE0bmpXQmltS2VkMFViNUxJeTFnd3pFMFhmRl8xQTNLODN5Q2dyMmRsbjEzdjhRZXE2Sm00YTgycTd1MG1lSWpBd2pBdGFXT1F6Sk5jNGIyZHp1T2dDNTNaQXBvTm44VHhwQzY5d09oLV83aHYtdEloVjZYdGRrdUhpTF85MHdi?oc=5
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615144/harga-minyak-naik-di-atas-80-dolar-as-karena-perundingan-as-iran-batal
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxQTzRLQ29MWjBGdTlfY1hROEVtV0VGOEdvT2k2YXNSMXhYRkZRcExBaXZBTlZFdWxlRFlyZUxpZUZMalY2ejVVVjVBaTFwaUNKeGtFbWlJZ1JqX3BjTHAwUk5oX3NjNEpwVmxOMU5iUFQyZjFtVVBvb2YwRGN5VzEtdlhVRG1uWjRLbVhOYVFOYk9HdjJIYVRVN1dxOUNNRGJPdXlrSFhXOHUzV2hjaUlN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE94Qk0xYktYT1IyQ2NJdEpQa3djME5xT1JTbW1PcUUyRDh2TlhaWDBWcXIzeUV3Y0xkWmh0dVBJUnFRbUtQYVR4WnZWOU9MdkFPVldPcjZ3Z2Nna05lcjRwMGg0TFNmT21Xa2tncS1PX0VreWloTzJTWEQxU2xfanVxZ18zZEY3dDVoN3FLancyRDVreldhWm54T0VSWlpzRElGeEp
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/6/19/trumps-iran-deal-a-victory-lap-before-the-victory?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/business/economy/iran-sanctions-oil.html
- [17] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615243/dialog-dengan-iran-tertunda-as-kerahkan-jet-tempur-ke-timur-tengah
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/israel-lebanon-trump-cease-fire.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9wFBVV95cUxNYmI0Y2tMenRfSFpFQzBVTUsyWXVWR3pSREM2WjlncERxT0tZakNNaVFibkp4SXBQdWZmaXg3WnpBbDNncVhjZVdiYWFJd0JWUHhTaVhJelZkc2o4NEZHZ0NibGltV1B5RC0tVTZFRlJ4RTBOZGVOTnVUcmc4ZXRCMTN4NVpCV1JRY1RDUnNSdDNNWEpKaXNyN2ZUdHdHRm91T0l1aTZuUVpubk0zYmJNeEEwVGlweHRZckNCeGpiVWNqaHRObmlVd0l4RXZQWW9XTTQ0VmxqNXgtV1MtZmVIelA0d0NSSUV1cmJFaUNQWjFvNU5iYnBB0gH8AUFVX3lxTE5tTUZEekFJTUNSN0JvZEc0bkZveVgtT2V1ZjhRcEJubTRlMURnR09KbWJPR2VvVkU1c2Z5UU5NNGI0d0ExYUpzcVV5MWgtVzJhd3p3VFdVVTQydFp
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004057Hqx
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOUml2Q3B3MVdhUXo3eFhxdmdlZWhSbzZXOWc1MXEtMkl6V0V2UWxsQzBUYUJEb19lWXo4VUxnOXFmYzEzbUFPM0VLUnRFNC1rTkhTN0xiZzcxY09wMjNWT0NkWnlKb2lZR19LaFJ3a3RsQU85b1dYZnNsb3BqeUswMnVHTy1KSE5LUUYtdXFuOW9IaS03dndINDVR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBLYlF3RTJYa29oY0xMZGxnNnBHV010MkdaZWdjaDFaaUZsaDVqT0VDRmdoZ2RncU55bUZLbWlBNHFoWmREQWhaZ2t1QQ?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQZUlabWgwdElDRVdLdjVrdWdtbmZIYzh4V3NTT3BGTFpiWnFJU2w0NnF1RU1ha3lRUnlXY0xlSDlHUElSTTBnY3UzNXVERC1Hd3Q4RkQtQ1F1cl9OS0tLaW9LRzM2M0hibnlKWlA3SlZmcGZFYlloR3NESmNrMTdpaDBVRzRqT2paREplcV9wX194Wk1yb0hQSG8zdE9YeXR6cGM3Z0djS2tUOGNpVDR0aQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxQbkdWQjYzX0NOaGtfVGdEdkNrNWhjYmN2V2VfWHJXTm5jWlpueEV6ekFiTHN0Nm1IaHJYMndKdTAyLTZibUtwcmlLbk5HUGhJR2w0ZFkxOHpEaWR3WThRNF80OHg4a1NUa3diajFhNEk3cU1aWV8xSHJNMjRJNjdNa2h6RnJ5RG5LTXFIQXRSVjNZR1FvemoxZzBOdWIydmZtZ3dXNlZKVVFnc0RNWW9QbE5PQWRRYXk2ZHlmRmZrWUZlU1llTjJ6S3ZJd0FYZw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/world/europe/russia-moscow-missile-refinery.html
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE5vT3ZqemNSamZ2Ri15Vm1RQVRnNExNM0JjN216VGthWXlCT2NHR2hJaTQtQUZGS1MyYkpUNnd3MjBSeDROdWk3ZHlHdFJINUZMZUlrN3JDdUJIaWZLTFVrVTdTMHJBMFAxUnI4S25fY20tdF9Ia0xCbzln?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxOV29fWjZZTWVBOFQzemQ1bjlYc1o2QWRZdkdXa3BiLUNhR213WmZBSUZEUUxtbm5EVzhrSXY1NnJYenFCWk9Nd2dSQkxZOHNwVjUyeGVTMVVVbGFYVXR3MHJyOE1BVDJPQUR2Z19QTUhmRjZ5UlVHVzliQTJxZTUxTUNKREJRQmhUbkJuN0d2QzdVQW50VFhxVUZWMDl1V2R6cE5NUUVTMlpOeU1vd2p6Xy03Q3VwZGZjYW1WVXJTNNIBxAFBVV95cUxNQmNHVkpZZU0yQVlPSzhqUE5mNUMtZVVTckNHNW5fSTdTS0c1M28zYUtBUVpjYW5BQUcwNUdjWTR3LTB5eTBRTjZ4VXB4dC1Mb1pMczh3aDVsYldzUlYwTmJLM1RlbVBCc2dvcDZsRFo2aXlxTURfTzZyV2gyb1NOVmhpaHktLW52YkNEcVd5b3lsVTN
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQQm9XSkVxdVBZVDc5ZkNXbVZSTXAwZElpTFp4a3pFRTU3Z28wMm9wWm5lcXgtajF2SmptTXZFZk5sUnctTVFrOTZZRGNnNGpkLVlweEhSWm4zZ29LT0JKOFAwemV4SlVwTlctQkhRdElpajFNazNEVS13cUdwRkR3X0p3?oc=5
2026-06-19
2026-06-19
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率不变，沃什将评估运作机制，未来政策路径存在不确定性。
- G7推动关键矿产供应链多元化，设2030年依赖度降至60%以下目标。
- 欧盟首次将俄罗斯制裁延长12个月，并考虑对华贸易措施，可能借鉴美国策略。
- 美国解除对伊朗海上封锁，但美伊核谈判前景不明，瑞士谈判存在变数。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 霍尔木兹海峡复航 / 油价下跌 / 全球通胀预期下降
美国解除伊朗封锁 / 伊朗石油出口增加 / OPEC+产量博弈
乌克兰无人机袭俄炼油厂 / 俄燃料供应中断 / 柴油 / 原油价差扩大
G7制裁俄油气 / 俄能源出口受限 / 全球天然气 / 石油价格支撑
来源
China News Service / RT News / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Deutsche Welle German News / Prime Minister of Canada - News / The Hindu BusinessLine / DW Germany News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Times of India / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/641788-us-iran-war-toll/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-19/10643623.shtml
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/at-least-6-oil-tankers-sail-through-hormuz-following-us-iran-deal
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/us-military-says-it-has-lifted-naval-blockade-of-iranian-ports?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-slips-again-us-iran-005602163.html
- [6] https://www.dw.com/de/bundeswehr-bereitet-einsatz-in-der-straße-von-hormus-vor/a-77604603?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [7] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/06/17/g7-leaders-declaration-securing-supply-chains-critical-minerals
- [8] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trumps-iran-deal-extends-ceasefire-opens-hormuz/article71119147.ece
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-german-military-prepares-for-possible-deployment/a-77613999?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPeFRjLUpWQkxqczhQeE1SVXZvMW1JYi15Q2lTMEJxVFg0enRjX0Z1SjIzNjVybWg2Vkx5dTNyYVVETVlMWFNRdkJ1aXVmV0pxZUJ5T0NWRUJQdVBRUUZtLXhId1V0bEFwUkNiY1ZDMEN2YVBmSkY4d1lUNEt2M1NDN1dyZw?oc=5
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjkl78vd7lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-ink-mou-real-test-begins-now-a-defiant-israel-can-still-derail-peace-efforts/articleshow/131831253.cms
- [13] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-drohnenangriff-setzt-raffinerie-bei-moskau-in-brand-a-ad2abc9f-5e62-4d10-a1b9-65c0dd5a0bc4
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260618-us-forces-lift-iran-ports-blockade-as-uncertainty-clouds-planned-switzerland-talks
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98291g5rr1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/641805-iran-stood-its-ground/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/06/17/g7-leaders-statement-geopolitical-issues
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/641759-iran-war-america-lost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/06-18/10643467.shtml
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/18/iran-says-it-will-charge-a-payment-for-services-in-the-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPM3pfclk0WUtnVUZNOFY5ZG9hZjc4VUhTTFpEaTlobENoSVBYdmp3Z29YQjJMY1p4a0JmdFlkV0VwTHBBb25oTi02d2dpY2RlOTZRNkItVGFBUkVYcnlhODMxYmFmT2o0cEZhUTNuMEN0VlYyWm1OeDVjZjI2UWE4YkpqS1hQQ1Bic25IMjJSMVVTT0drdnlKVg?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNZHFfTVVjT2JDRmh2elRxemtfQ1QzdU5vR3Jpb3ZydU55ZjFoaEJqUmNRZmZDYy1GZTRFaWpuWVY5WVE5OFZvbTJ5TERsdF9Wdk1QSDZmeU4xcUxQY3JTd184c0ZmRnVNRGZ6eWJDRzdPWTJLMDdLbGhJY05jaFpTcFhET29oUThzWHhfOEhfZXhlVU00?oc=5
- [23] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-eu-verlaengert-russland-sanktionen-erstmals-um-zwoelf-monate-a-a88b3c92-6692-41be-b02d-c4d030fe1504
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-lifts-naval-blockade-iran-200444482.html
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r2eejdd35o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c932yqz8lggo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/irans-supreme-leader-says-approved-us-deal-despite-having-different-view?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/pure-hell-moscow-ukrainian-drones-161406314.html
2026-06-18
2026-06-18
进展要点
- 美伊进入60天谈判窗口期，最终协议需涵盖核问题及区域安全
- 美联储可能最早在9月加息，市场需重新定价加息路径
- 英国等盟国参与海峡重开行动，多边协调机制短期强化
- 美联储在主席沃什领导下维持关键利率不变，但政策制定者预计年内将加息。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 霍尔木兹重开 / 原油供应风险解除 / 油价下行、风险资产反弹
美联储鹰派 / 加息预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场及大宗承压
蒙古铜矿封锁 / 铜精矿供应紧张 / 铜价上涨
俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭 / 汽油进口增加 / 区域成品油裂解价差波动
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / KBS World News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / The Hindu / Sky News / RT News / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202250
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/18/iran-war-live-trump-pezeshkian-sign-mou-to-end-fighting-reopen-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642747.shtml
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/read-us-officials-release-14-point-initial-agreement-to-end-war-with-iran/a-77595563?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/d28e93fb4ee047b38fef1fd0ee5b19dd/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260617/cdbbe7893b9146d1916ad79178e95bf8/c.html
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/protesters-block-copper-exports-china-090335412.html
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260617-middle-east-live-trump-iran-s-president-sign-deal-to-end-mideast-war
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9MMnJvejl3QjRFcno3YnZMX1EtZGotcndHcmRrVEpPUDRQZ08wQmZhLWpHR3lkY3dLejdZSmVHdFFNWllvdGJ6bExfQ183OVkzMmdJYzlqeEtGdw?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-confirm-deal-signed-to-end-west-asia-war/article71115548.ece
- [11] https://news.sky.com/story/the-14-point-us-iran-deal-what-is-in-it-13555121
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/641756-us-iran-memorandum-signed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000600315
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/world/europe/trump-iran-school-us-strike-minab.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/17/trump-eyes-us-iran-peace-deal-signing?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260618/99cc2a94226f4ec3aa9a880318ccc0d0/c.html
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642750.shtml
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260617-trump-has-signed-iran-deal-says-us-official
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNMTk2dUxGSkc5YkZnMDk1VUo4b1A1WXJpV0RVZ1NJdG1uMFdrVHFoZ0dFOGY3eUNVa3lGSjMzZjQ1OEI5ZXQ0OVd3TFR1bGlXOFh5X2VRZl9ubl91T2hnbWJ3Qi12NFFfS19WVzNkOWk0cHVfdjZwOERBMkUxMVp4bDJkRV9UcWpQQlg2NG84TnZUZ0NqRVFaMkJMYm94czl5cEhUUU9RS19PUUdf?oc=5
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260617-ce-que-contient-accord-n%C3%A9goci%C3%A9-entre-iran-%C3%A9tats-unis
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000552315
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/aa5d53819de2443ebe73c57185490253/c.html
- [24] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000500315
2026-06-17
2026-06-17
进展要点
- 美国对俄石油制裁：特朗普表态反复，关注是否签署行政令；若执行，可能豁免部分国家以避免油价飙升。
- 伊朗协议国会审批：共和党内部可能反对，若被否将导致制裁重回并加剧冲突。
- G7对俄制裁细节将陆续公布，重点看是否涉及石油出口保险和运输限制。
- 日本央行加息信号：行长暗示若经济改善可能继续加息，年底利率或升至1.25%。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 霍尔木兹海峡重开 / 供给增加 / 油价下跌 / 能源股承压 / 通胀预期回落
美国威胁对俄制裁 / 俄油供应风险 / 油价上行 / 但伊朗售油对冲 / 油价双向波动
日本央行加息 / 日元升值 / 套利交易平仓 / 新兴市场资金外流 / 风险资产下跌
G7对俄新制裁+乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 俄罗斯能源收入下降 / 俄经济压力 / 削弱战争能力但可能激化冲突
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / ORF.at News / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / RT News / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-17/10641900.shtml
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/49e46f072d934cff8d63c71699c4b397/c.html
- [3] https://orf.at/stories/3433473
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260617/4ed4b0701b7c418a8f807acf31ecf158/c.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPVTd4aGxKa1FSOEk0QWZsM0djNkl3aEkxZ1FTRGwxOW5RTGF0cmU1RHBONV9vOExZcnVILThBZi1DWHFEWmstanNKR0ttN2djWGE1QUZpRGZWVmZnWXdiUy1ldmhhNl9pQVRvSVpWd0FHS0o3RHVUZVNaaFI0aFZjQS1rWUNfcGdZMXZvQVlTTVhlNDEt?oc=5
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-06/g7-gipfel-frankreich-sanktionen-russland-ukraine-donald-trump
- [7] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-bringt-image-der-usa-aus-gleichgewicht/a-77579855?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/641666-calm-in-hormuz-could-be-brief/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606161924088mx
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-ll-send-iran-141017534.html
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/business/fertilizer-farming-iran.html
- [12] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-16/ucrania-eleva-la-presion-sobre-el-sector-energetico-ruso-con-el-ataque-de-una-refineria-en-moscu.html
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260617/9743e307f67340efacb43ea660355f1c/c.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-17/10641883.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxOSm1Uay02QmVOZGdpQVZJQnJRNzdXLUdWSHJsMml5cnhlOWZSYmEzeUpaMERjQmV0ZW9ocHRwTjlFN1VHZnFXamlVUm00RXREMG9URU04U0Y2YWxJQkk4LXpQUTB5Z3lVRUoxVlZ6UXZCTWwwUkQyWDFScTE5Qmh3Xw?oc=5
- [16] https://orf.at/stories/3433536
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPNGdHUGplOVktX2t5SWFqSUJTVFFBWHQzMHk3R2tnTWlmN3JKUmN1RFozb0JiMjRpUVhlMDdFa3I0LXFTS3VsQVplSkpBNnRRTFAzV1RGTzItamRBQTkwQTFqM290YUphU1Q5R1h5ajhXb19NTndrZzRJRXdZXzhjblZuYy1RaVV0QmpaY21CQmdoWlZC?oc=5
- [18] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260616/4e89dbcbd5e3441cabc973e9505b5595/c.html
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641673.shtml
- [20] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/16/kommt-die-bundeswehr-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-zum-einsatz
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/17/g7-staaten-kuendigen-neue-sanktionen-gegen-russland-an
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/641683-trumps-iran-truce-marks-defeat/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://orf.at/stories/3433509
- [24] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-schädigt-image-der-usa-als-sicherheitsgarant/a-77579855?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
2026-06-16
2026-06-16
进展要点
- 美伊正式签署仪式（6月19日）将是关键节点，文本公布后市场将逐条评估制裁解除范围。
- G7峰会期间，特朗普与马克龙等领导人就霍尔木兹安全框架进行协调，可能宣布多国扫雷及护航任务。
- 英法德意提前释放解除对伊制裁信号，但实际解除将分阶段进行，与伊朗核履约挂钩。
- 英国扣押俄油轮显示西方加大二级制裁执行力度，后续可能有更多扣押行动，影响俄罗斯石油出口。
关联路径
美伊协议签署 / 霍尔木兹海峡重开 / 原油供给风险溢价下降 / 原油价格下跌 / 全球通胀预期走低
制裁解除 / 伊朗原油重返市场（+100-150万桶 / 日） / Q3供需平衡转松 / OPEC+减产压力减轻
英国扣押俄油轮 / 俄罗斯影子舰队活动受限 / 俄罗斯出口减少（约30万桶 / 日） / 部分抵消伊朗增量
霍尔木兹通行费争议 / 运输成本上升 / 炼厂利润压缩 / 成品油价格差异扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Le Monde International / KBS World News / The New York Times / The Hindu BusinessLine / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / n-tv Politik / RT News / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Der Spiegel International / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/15/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-deux-parties-ont-signe-electroniquement-un-accord-cadre-la-reouverture-complete-du-detroit-d-ormuz-attendue-vendredi-selon-donald-trump_6701050_3210.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202189
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/6b796621ba324f6fa00834cd98d939b7/c.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641076.shtml
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/middleeast/shipping-fees-tolls-strait-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-iran-deal-signed-text-to-be-released-after-friday-signing-trump/article71106353.ece
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8mv6l6eezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deal-when-will-oil-prices-fall/a-77554342?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-Krieg-zehrt-an-Oel-Reserven-der-USA-id30970249.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/641619-israelis-reacts-with-anger/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260616/d2673a895828403e9929d0a14a2d68c2/c.html
- [12] https://orf.at/stories/3433405
- [13] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/even-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-164442179.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQTmNBUHNqN2tJV2czQ1N4WS1lQVptMnFjWVI2VUgwaFRXU0k3eUJ2WEczZFBqb2tWbFp1T2Eyc1pyMFlqVmN5bndfN1dwTDdiRjRZb0VhbXJtcUQxZEpjaGo2eG1vSFE0VFEzU1pvRms3Y2N1VDJKV0ZjRE80Tjg3OU9CeDc5TV9ycW9jdEYxYjFoYldkWkphRmh2SUxVTE1wb1FMd2dSc1lqNjgzOW10azhRclc4WldaaHJDbXFB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a303ab6e85ece86208b45a3-video.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/15/trump-says-iran-deal-all?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-06/oeffnung-strasse-von-hormus-iran-usa-oelpreis-inflation
- [18] https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/iran-krieg-raeumt-die-bundeswehr-bald-minen-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-a-fc77e7a3-e1c1-406f-9885-ad0079f7476a
- [19] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5609591/uni-eropa-dorong-rute-dagang-baru-untuk-hindari-risiko-selat-hormuz
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/eb2ba8da6b1e4516bc07b4a7b70ddb3e/c.html
- [21] https://www.news.cn/world/20260615/12ee5330301c47e48b4fc2c927e73a9d/c.html
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/641641-iran-us-peace-deal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a3034dae85ece1b5b8b457a.html
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641064.shtml
- [25] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/06/15/petrole-apres-plus-de-trois-mois-d-une-crise-inedite-le-retour-a-la-normale-s-annonce-laborieux_6703244_3234.html
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-end-shipping-risks/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://orf.at/stories/3433391
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-restore-normal-prewar-shipping-any-time-soon/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
2026-06-15
2026-06-15
进展要点
- 美联储：油价下跌缓解通胀压力，7月降息预期升温。
- 欧盟：准备部分解除对伊制裁，但需与美方协调。
- OPEC+：伊朗产量回归可能迫使联盟调整减产协议，6月会议或成焦点。
关联路径
美伊和平协议 / 霍尔木兹海峡重开 / 原油供应恢复 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期下降 / 降息预期升温
风险偏好回升 / 资金从避险资产流向风险资产 / 黄金下跌、股市上涨
欧盟解除制裁 / 伊朗石油出口增加 / 全球油市供给过剩风险
特朗普威胁未达成核协议将重启打击 / 地缘风险溢价重返
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / The Hindu BusinessLine / KBS World News / Kyodo News English / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Tagesschau / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Le Monde International / Der Spiegel International / The Independent / El País Internacional / n-tv Politik
参考链接
- [1] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-iran-reach-deal-to-end-war-signing-ceremony-set-in-switzerland-on-friday/article71103130.ece
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202159
- [3] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/77872
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/641542-iran-peace-deal-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/14/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-announced-trump-says-strait-of-hormuz-reopening?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-15/10640410.shtml
- [7] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/14/6a2f1bb7fc6c83b4588b458e.html
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-also-confirms-iran-deal-reached-and-authorizes-end-to-us-naval-blockade-in-strait-of-hormuz/live-77540182?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-abkommen-usa-krieg-100.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/business/oil-stocks-gas-iran.html
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6217106px6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNcW9ZNWVSNmhTTWlBQU9hMUgxOU5OWmtxbmtHcnY5dmRzNTFyM1hETUJfM1VyLTBibXlYdV9jbUZrMVREV2tTbDU3ZUphc05qU1dKNWM4Q1R0RlBxSXVYaHQ0TDRGWDFndkhtcWNmd29ncmY4bFdKR3hpSlQxaFN0S0pYNUxJQ0gzMHVSeUY2dlNjVk0?oc=5
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/15/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-la-signature-d-un-accord-de-paix-annoncee-pour-le-19-juin-les-europeens-prets-a-lever-certaines-sanctions-sur-l-iran_6701050_3210.html
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260615/2fcbf658789c443bba5443fb7d5fb04e/c.html
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/krieg-in-iran-pakistan-meldet-friedensabkommen-zwischen-usa-und-iran-a-5fa96386-89fa-48c3-86fb-db3e3848137d
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-iran-us-peace-deal-war-strait-of-hormuz-b2971511.html
- [17] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-14/trump-anuncia-que-estados-unidos-e-iran-han-alcanzado-un-acuerdo-para-poner-fin-a-la-guerra.html
- [18] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-und-Iran-verkuenden-Ende-des-Kriegs-id30965955.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/641532-us-iran-deal-reached/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-threatens-renewed-strikes-on-iran-if-final-nuclear-agreement-is-not-reached/article71103083.ece
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-15/10640429.shtml
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-15/10640423.shtml
2026-06-14
2026-06-14
进展要点
- 若协议签署，美国可能逐步解除对伊制裁，伊朗石油出口有望恢复。
- 共和党盟友对伊朗战争设定劳动节最后期限，白宫面临国内政治压力。
- 美国计划在G7讨论霍尔木兹海峡排雷，多边协调可能加速。
关联路径
美伊停火协议 / 霍尔木兹海峡重开 / 石油供应增加 / 原油价格下跌
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 地区风险溢价 / 限制油价下行空间
鲁比奥警告印度 / 美印关系紧张 / 地缘风险溢价
来源
China News Service / El País Internacional / POLITICO Europe / NBC News Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Politika / tagesschau.de RSS Feed / RT News / Le Monde International / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / The New Indian Express / Die Zeit Politics / SHZ Politik RSS / Global News / The Independent
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-13/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [2] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/13/trump-says-agreement-to-end-monthslong-war-with-iran-will-be-signed-sunday-00961472?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-iran-deal-could-be-finalized-within-days-trump-and-iranian-officials-say-265055301738
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/14/iran-war-live-trump-says-deal-to-be-signed-today-as-tehran-urges-caution?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-14/10640068.shtml
- [6] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/763018/rubio-svi-brodovi-u-ormuskom-moreuzu-moraju-da-slede-naredbe-sad
- [7] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1597860.html
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/641505-trump-deal-iran-imminent/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/13/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-affirme-que-la-signature-d-un-accord-avec-l-iran-est-prevue-pour-dimanche_6701050_3210.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-deal-with-iran-to-be-signed-on-sunday/live-77535647?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8AFBVV95cUxPVEotTjlxa0hCLXA2NjYzeDRSVzNTZVh5QVFuQjZtanBLRDNVejU2WnVnS1YyRlBUZC1jN1NiQnNXc0luNklMOEViMlhHZmFBUG00SW9IMFBBVXJhTC1nc2x0RDJyNUNOR2RscDVXNlBrVzR2YVkwdzlzN1Y2eGk4MjhrVURuQ0xCcDl4WUozSmdLVWpoT1N1dm85dUFRNmNDWElNaHNxc2hVNEZrcGxVWVVESzJPb0s1SG5VckdhUW5pODNlX05NdXpDUnNFeGI4SDlzSlhobDN0V2NFSkg4M0hBbml4aGI2VHA4NEVrSUs?oc=5
- [12] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/13/trump-says-peace-deal-with-iran-will-be-signed-on-sunday-us-will-get-tehrans-enriched-uranium-when-all-is-calm
- [13] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-06/iran-krieg-donald-trump-vereinbarung-strasse-von-hormus
- [14] https://www.shz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-iran-vereinbarung-soll-morgen-unterzeichnet-werden-50775711
- [15] https://globalnews.ca/news/11903333/trump-iran-hormouz
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-airstrikes-threat-israel-hormuz-deal-b2994438.html
- [17] https://www.today.com/video/trump-says-an-iran-peace-deal-is-near-264985157976
- [18] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/12/iran-war-trump-midterms-labor-day-00960925?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/13/israel-attacks-lebanon-as-us-says-iran-deal-to-be-signed-on-sunday?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-13/trump-preve-que-la-tregua-con-iran-se-firme-este-domingo-y-que-ormuz-quede-abierto-inmediatamente.html
2026-06-13
2026-06-13
进展要点
- 美伊协议若签署，美国将解除部分对伊制裁，但核问题与导弹限制留待60天内谈判
- 英国政府可能推动欧盟跟进对俄柴油/航空燃油禁令，加速俄油出口东移
- 美联储关注中东局势与能源价格演变，若油价持续下跌将缓解通胀压力
- 中国可能利用美伊协议推动自己在中东的外交空间
关联路径
美伊协议文本达成 / 霍尔木兹海峡解封预期 / 油价风险溢价回落
英国对俄柴油 / 航空燃油禁令 / 全球成品油贸易流重塑 / 区域价差变化
厄尔尼诺超强 / 印度等主要农产品国产量下降 / 食品通胀预期抬升
伊朗击落美军直升机 / 战术级摩擦 / 短期油价脉冲式上涨
来源
Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / UK Government News and Communications / Times of India / The Hindu / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260613085752ynp
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260612-middle-east-live-iran-says-us-war-deal-could-be-signed-remotely-in-coming-days
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/6/12/will-there-be-a-deal-to-end-the-iran-war-this-time?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQMy1fbWtVcXVDRm5ISTB2a2lrQURZSjduUXBFUUMwOTZFQkE4dmMyYVJuZVROektFV0xjRVFqNlVfc05LczVnTklEOUxKeTdkalVOY21GOGZ1dGZGMXczRTMyTU41SnpldEdaQ1VsSUszaVdxZm1SMmZGZnVvMXhKU1B3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqdl8xre7qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-set-end-date-for-imports-of-russian-diesel-and-jet-fuel-via-third-countries
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/sanctions-relief-lebanon-ceasefire-inclusion-hormuz-reopening-inside-the-14-point-us-iran-potential-deal-framework/articleshow/131685000.cms
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/shows/watch-100-days-of-iran-war-what-are-indias-diplomatic-options-after-3-indians-killed-worldview/article71094310.ece
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5606137/prosesi-pemakaman-ali-khamenei-dijadwalkan-akhir-juni
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/mediator-iran-talks-says-final-183217578.html
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/world/middleeast/iran-peace-deal-what-to-know.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-disputes-leaked-terms-of-deal/live-77520654?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-rejects-irans-peace-deal-claims-accuses-tehran-of-attacking-vessels-carrying-indian-seafarers/article71094753.ece
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260613083858SYX
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi5gFBVV95cUxOWXZFVFVpaWpJR2d1WDM0eklhWVF4SjllZ1RkdXVvTmY4N1VySzRQd3k5TGdHdGQtQ0RnLUthcXRQakdxcUtxejFSblFLWlRQODhIaUtKN2dGcUpDX01LTVdERXJ3WnFMckRwWS1qSjdQaUxCVThCMzExOXNHcl8yM3oyX3ZmdnlITEJsUjl6RGpaZFp5NjlZdFNKcmRLUEF1MXY2ZkhrdTlvZ0lpODZaR2RyT0ozYUhRdUFJaWg5TVkxb0pmM0htTE5LLUVmM0pOcHRLWGVndmJGNGJ4UWpWc1oyaXFRUQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/12/putin-admits-ukraine-attacks-hitting-russian-economy-society?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPcGlJeWNsNVlXNWZEbDByVlY2MnVLNmZlYlprTFR2QTJqTl9SdFNuRV9SYnBUN29ORUVZZEwyT3VsSkc3MWh4bW55ZXU4ZXNTUGw4YmFHWEhGb2t4TEQ2dW9hdXRGWFJVTldBRURRWC1MZ0hkd09lVGlBLXc3QXRJZVM0dXo?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260612-iran-ukraine-belfast-albania-s-flamingo-revolution
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260613001746Xv7
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/forecasts-indicate-el-nio-to-grow-stronger-during-monsoon-imd/articleshow/131695101.cms
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/el-nio-here-63-chance-it-will-be-super-strong-us/articleshow/131695624.cms
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/12/iran-no-timeline-yet-for-signing-us-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260612-moyen-orient-l-iran-%C3%A9voque-des-progr%C3%A8s-significatifs-vers-un-accord-avec-washington
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/india-summons-us-deputy-chief-of-mission-again-after-another-attack-on-ship-with-indian-crew/article71094969.ece
2026-06-12
2026-06-12
进展要点
- 美伊协议若签署，将立即开放霍尔木兹海峡并可能解除部分对伊制裁，重塑全球油市格局
- 伊朗称未做最终决定，特朗普的极限施压与外交双轨策略面临考验
- 世界银行下调增长预期，各国央行可能维持宽松以对冲能源冲击，欧洲央行刚加息25基点
- 美国海军封锁将继续维持，直至协议执行
关联路径
美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀 / 增长下行
美伊协议 / 海峡重开 / 油价风险溢价消退 / 股市反弹 / 债券收益率回落
伊朗否认最终协议 / 谈判不确定性 / 油价波动反复
能源成本上升 / 世界银行下调增长预期 / 央行政策困境
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Global Issues News / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260611/9be8559013a241919a059f958c966859/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612053433nL0
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-denies-iran-closed-strait-121236200.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-will-be-taking-kharg-island-in-latest-iran-war-threat?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641447-iran-no-final-deal-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/11/43269
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-12/10638773.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000452315
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-nearly-done/live-77498305?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/govt-alerts-maritime-stakeholders-after-missile-strike-on-tanker-kills-three-indians/article71090376.ece
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612003008T13
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/iran-shuts-hormuz-strait-but-wasnt-it-already-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083357OnR
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-and-iran-have-reached-a-great?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-great-settlement-iran-195219669.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/641439-us-iran-war-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000451315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000400315
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083224dwc
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612075819ufq
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612072757xGF
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612064752PB2
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120656350XJ
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606120630438Uf
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612061022aOi
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612060952ESe
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120611227Xu
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612045638FUx
2026-06-11
2026-06-11
进展要点
- 美联储面临通胀与增长两难，6月会议释放鹰派信号概率大
- 美国可能加快释放战略石油储备以平抑油价
- 特朗普政府或寻求外交突破，但当前军事行动占主导
- 海湾国家可能因设施受损而推动美国冻结伊朗资产补偿
关联路径
霍尔木兹关闭 / 能源价格飙升 / 美国CPI再超预期 / 美联储鹰派 / 美元走强 / 风险资产承压
美伊冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金 / 美债上涨 / 新兴市场资金外流
能源成本上升 / 输入性通胀 / 欧央行 / 日央行政策调整 / 全球利率上行
乌克兰打击俄炼油厂 / 欧洲天然气供应紧张 / 气价联动油价
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / RT News / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638043.shtml
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/11/iran-war-live-us-launches-attacks-on-multiple-iranian-targets?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611084354pSC
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-erklaert-strasse-von-hormus-fuer-komplett-gesperrt-a-00d939ee-993a-4e9f-9537-2d21b352e7d0
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641370-we-will-be-hitting-iran-hard-us-israel-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-inflation-climbs-to-42-and-hits-3-year-high-amid-rising-fuel-costs/article71087119.ece
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQMlVZcWtvYWxjTXM5VUY5bTNJeXJpZW1YYWlNMmZRckNEbXFWQ1pUWkwwcmVkd3RrZk92TkxDYnlMTENxUzkwUnVSLV9selNvcHNoTkV5LUFjVHJFcE96NlBfY19ZdTlLMHdkWlBCcEJaaDRGY0d2SFZoQjlmeHBJa2VCbw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-strikes-in-latest-escalation-after-trump-threat/article71086716.ece
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/briefing/inflation-rises-us-iran-strikes.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/the-united-states-says-it-has-launched-new-attacks-on-iran/live-77482934?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyp9v0e93o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/us-bombs-iran-after-trump-threat-tehran-closes-hormuz-strait-to-all-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083243ePh
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611074943nbX
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/10/trumps-claim-of-escorting-oil-through-hormuz-wont-ease-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638048.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638047.shtml
- [18] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-military-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-as-trump-warns-of-further-escalation/article71086729.ece
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOeU9xcGJfcHRNQ3RydDNXbjc1NXFQbkdId2hlVnVYamxWWV9YRkdKc2lGby1mdEtNWV9INXJQNkUzcUladkRFaDJaZnBUdWM0blVIcW5PdVZDOFlNdXJrWlJxWDJLb0hxTjJ4WnhadThWOGpPU2JzYml4am0tdVNDWlJTQ29uaThhTUlmdDltSjNKVXk2Vm9LbFJTZDhXOHdRcTNxWjZjZUZaWkFGeHBRaXVrNNIBuAFBVV95cUxON1hwLVN2elBTdDJNVnZ2a0hrdVAzRFVpeThuVk9UUFIzbnVoZDFxLTJFaUFqZmJVUlM3Mm11YXBMU1lpQW9VUWQ0TUhFZEVqWll3WXFYSXRSLWJIUVQwUmJGd2FGMExmSXlOX3QtckFJNWtPb3FXTkZON2RxZ3FlR0VseGV6ZjVfTFRqdnA4US1ESWIwdGVpd0lPVFpEVkV
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611074512DCp
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611055621CJT
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611083656yBs
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083343fdH
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611080507D7r
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075216ChH
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075628bE7
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638040.shtml
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611072514X05
2026-06-10
2026-06-10
进展要点
- 美国可能继续扩大对伊朗军事打击范围
- 伊朗可能采取非对称手段报复，如袭击海湾国家设施
- 美国可能推动对伊朗更严厉的制裁
关联路径
US airstrikes on Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption / Oil & LNG supply risk
Iran missile / drone attacks on US targets / Middle East escalation / safe-haven demand
Taiwan AI chip export controls / China tech supply disruption / Risk-off sentiment in global equities
Strait of Hormuz explosion / oil supply disruption risk / crude oil price spike
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Times of India / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260610082924Qgb
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/09/briefing/united-states-iran-strikes-maine-primary-election.html
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-strikes-iran-after-trump-vows-response-to-downed-helicopter-near-hormuz-tehran-vows-retaliation-top-developments/articleshow/131622061.cms
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637347.shtml
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260609-us-military-launches-new-strikes-on-iran-after-apache-downing
- [6] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-says-it-has-begun-strikes-against-iran-following-crash-of-army-apache-helicopter-off-oman-coast/article71082570.ece
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/us-strikes-iran-in-response-to-helicopter-shootdown/live-77467866?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/641322-us-strikes-iran-helicopter/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-us-armee-attackiert-ziele-nach-mutmasslichem-hubschrauberabschuss-a-9619f804-17a3-48fe-a7b8-df422cc50a7e
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/live/iran-war-live-updates-iran-halts-strikes-on-israel-as-trump-urges-immediate-end-to-strikes-071953370.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/9/trump-vows-retaliation-after-claiming-iran-shot-down-apache-helicopter?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260610083023E8w
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637346.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260610083328Egb
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637325.shtml
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260610082139Dyl
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606100829071ha
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260610074944fGg
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260610081036esc
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637323.shtml
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260610074220LfP
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637321.shtml
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-10/10637320.shtml
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606100659114tL
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260610065129NzZ
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260610064317gS0
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260610063820IYZ
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606100634533uv
2026-06-09
2026-06-09
进展要点
- 美国维持对伊朗港口封锁，并扩大阿曼湾拦截力度，石油出口限制是核心施压工具。
- 欧盟对俄制裁延伸至军工与宣传领域，显示制裁长期化趋势。
- 伊朗提出海峡通行费，可能作为谈判筹码换取制裁松动。
- 特朗普政府要求伊朗与以色列分开处理与黎巴嫩冲突，但各方立场差异大。
关联路径
伊朗-以色列冲突 / 胡塞红海禁令 / 航运中断 / 能源价格
美军阿曼湾封锁 / 伊朗石油出口减少 / 原油供应缺口
俄罗斯油港大火 + 炼厂受袭 / 成品油短缺 / 欧洲柴油与汽油价差
霍尔木兹通行费提议 / LNG与原油运输成本 / 亚太溢价
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Google News - World / ANTARA News / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / RT News / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/48cf8214183e487fa6949cf36219116b/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609084029HkV
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/moskau-gibt-kraftstoff-probleme-infolge-ukrainischer-angriffe-zu-a-07c27dcb-5d20-4b2c-a8e0-c440c4866331
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-09/10636642.shtml
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/8/we-basically-lost-tel-aviv-residents-react-after-israel-iran-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-live-updates-israel-iran-070956663.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-warplane-strikes-disables-oil-tanker-near-oman-crew-of-24-indians-evacuated/articleshow/131592749.cms
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQRG9kN3ZOb251SzM2VWFCMXJlU3ZPZ1l2LXVMamVqSWFRclhBWkZHMDgwcy1xazR5eFU3eUJ5RXB3LUdkUGc3aEVqTHo4a3JSUWpyNk1YTGRVRzdtTTdvSHB5WGpIWUltbE1iVTNiWHdvT3VKay1nY3ZfZE1BLUx4dkFQaTJmd2NObXg2WGc3Q1B4cDFrWC1r?oc=5
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599773/as-tidak-cegat-serangan-rudal-iran-yang-gempur-israel
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-regional-gains.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-shuts-down-following-war-flare-up-with-iran
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly72ryrd1jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/641249-european-drivers-cutting-fuel-consumption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78yd5g9qx0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-trends/global-airline-profits-projected-to-drop-by-half-as-jet-fuel-costs-soar
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/1243130a3f5b4244b8e43fed8a562beb/c.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609074142ueB
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260609060044fJp
- [19] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-raketenbeschuss-trotz-waffenruhe-israel-reagiert-mit-gegenschlaegen-a-ef5e386c-ae72-45c3-8ad6-535a292d461f
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599555/iran-hentikan-serangan-ke-israel-akan-gempur-jika-lebanon-dibom-lagi
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/hormuz-strait-open-transit-fees-043554515.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-energy-oil.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE9aM0R6U0lzaTQ1OXFzRmNlNW9mc3JNSUEyTnloZWM3WGNmNktVVzAtR3lROHJNQ1d6dHo4cV8zVVFycUNlUWJoQ3FmNA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/8/eu-planning-to-add-to-1-5-trillion-sanctions-hit-on-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-06-08
2026-06-08
进展要点
- 特朗普政府面临两难：一方面以“最终协议”为名推动伊朗谈判，另一方面必须回应以色列安全诉求。
- 美国可能批准以色列有限打击伊朗军事目标，同时维持外交窗口。
- OPEC+增产决策力度将取决于沙特、俄罗斯对市场份额的态度，以及伊朗出口恢复可能性。
关联路径
伊朗导弹袭击以色列 / 中东全面战争风险 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭预期 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上行 / 央行鹰派风险
区域领空关闭 + 航运改道 / 全球供应链成本上升 / 制造业PMI承压 / 经济衰退担忧
特朗普呼吁克制 + 美军戒备 / 外交窗口存在但脆弱 / 市场等待明确信号
OPEC+增产 vs 伊朗通行费 / 实际供应量下降 / 原油库存低点 / 逼仓风险
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Die Zeit Politics / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/7/iran-fires-missiles-at-israel-after-it-attacked-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/641154-iran-israel-missile-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/iran-feuert-raketen-auf-israel
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/opec-decides-on-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure/article71073904.ece
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260607-iran-war-100-days
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE0xV3g2OWxXcVhxUjZOZUpZVThPSXNkbW1lcjdqaU5KRkctWHBwRTNOSWp1dy1zSE8xNHpUU1ZpRGVKMm5qVTBJMEx2Znp3d1pUaGcwVg?oc=5
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260607/715b2f909cae4f0e80d03dee28820905/c.html
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608084043ZXF
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl3gx9y32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635998.shtml
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-11-missiles-at-israel-in-first-attack-since-april-truce-regional-airspace-restrictions-widen/articleshow/131574138.cms
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-closes-airspace-after-warning-attacks-against-israel/live-77442602?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/8/iran-war-live-trump-urges-restraint-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608081102Fc9
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606080752231NC
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635991.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE4yaFRvZG5JOHJaV2ZsSllxcUx6WG9HSEdWVC1sQlVDZlRIUmxxb18xVWNmOEZCd0xKa3lraG80ZGw4NnVHcE5vODRwZzVNVkV4V3JscldjQUt0dU9zQ2swZjExcG9IR2E2dG5hb29HekFnYV8x?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/7/irans-attack-on-israel-aims-to-restore-deterrence-but-avoid-return-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260607-isra%C3%ABl-cibl%C3%A9-par-des-tirs-de-missiles-iraniens-les-premiers-depuis-le-cessez-le-feu
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260607-iran-launches-missiles-at-israel-in-first-bombardment-since-fragile-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/rundfunk-iran-meldet-zwei-raketensalven-auf-israel
2026-06-07
2026-06-07
进展要点
- 美联储可能因油价飙升和通胀预期维持鹰派，推迟降息。
- 欧洲央行关注能源价格对经济的影响，或调整购债计划。
- 韩国央行可能抛售美元储备或提高利率以稳定韩元汇率。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 全球央行紧缩风险
美伊冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 美元 / 黄金上涨 / 新兴市场汇率贬值
韩国资金外流 / 韩元贬值 / 亚洲新兴市场连锁反应 / 央行干预成本上升
欧盟贸易限制 / 巴西肉类出口下降 / 全球肉类价格上涨 / 食品通胀
来源
Yonhap News TV / Mehr News Agency / El País Internacional / Times of India / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #3 / Le Monde International / Index.hu - Külföld / Global News / The Independent / n-tv Politik / Global Issues News / Poder360 / SIC Notícias / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260607085622nBI
- [2] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245062/Iran-retaliates-against-US-attacks-warns-full-Hormuz-closure
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-06/iran-ataca-kuwait-y-barein-con-misiles-despues-de-que-estados-unidos-golpeara-sus-radares-en-el-ormuz.html
- [4] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-attacks-iran-radar-sites-as-drones-fly-towards-hormuz/articleshow/131560804.cms
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPelJMTjAxUFhxdHBqeU9KN3lhbkFhM182azlzVHpGTDZXaGkyaDFNT0Vzc2ZBT1BJTnpiTm9XalZjOVhaWGN6YjJjXzBBZ2lrQW52bFhZZmw4OHFSYWVRcUpwenVEckFlSkY5NGx1bFM2dDVuUUlPQ1M1UTgtX094dlhHOUs1bVU3NlFBRmFuLThRN0dtUE9yWg?oc=5
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-attacks-iranian-coastal-sites-000159581.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260606-l-iran-cible-le-kowe%C3%AFt-et-bahre%C3%AFn-en-riposte-%C3%A0-des-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines
- [8] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/06/en-direct-moyen-orient-israel-dit-avoir-vise-150-sites-lies-au-hezbollah-en-deux-jours-dans-le-sud-du-liban_6697888_3210.html
- [9] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/06/iran-egyesult-allamok-bahrein-kuvait-tamaszpont-tamadas-haboru
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11893265/us-iran-us
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strikes-drones-israel-kuwait-b2990907.html
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-Krieg-Kuwait-meldet-feindliche-Angriffe-Raketenalarm-in-Bahrain-id30898655.html
- [13] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/05/43226
- [14] https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-agro/faesp-cobra-reacao-do-governo-contra-restricao-da-ue-a-carne-do-brasil
- [15] https://sicnoticias.pt/mundo/medio-oriente/2026-06-06-video-guerra-sem-fim-a-vista-cessar-fogo-volta-a-ser-violado-com-troca-de-fogo-entre-irao-e-estados-unidos-5aee01a1
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260607083805LjB
- [17] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245092/Explosion-reported-near-Kharg-Island-in-Persian-Gulf-Report
- [18] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245090/Satellite-images-show-drone-hangars-at-US-base-shattered
- [19] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260606-iran-targets-bahrain-and-kuwait-after-new-us-strikes
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260606-frappes-us-contre-des-radars-iraniens-l-iran-cible-le-kowe%C3%AFt-et-bahre%C3%AFn
- [21] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Militaer-greift-iranische-Radarstationen-an-id30898474.html
- [22] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/06/en-direct-moyen-orient-l-iran-denonce-une-violation-flagrante-du-cessez-le-feu-apres-des-bombardements-americains-sur-ses-installations-radar_6697888_3210.html
2026-06-06
2026-06-06
进展要点
- 美联储加息预期升温，市场定价6月暂停但7月加息概率上升。
- 印度央行因通胀压力维持利率不变，但下调增长预测，政策空间受限。
- 美国对俄新制裁法案若通过，将强制升级对俄能源及金融制裁。
- 印度放宽外资购债规则，旨在吸引资本流入对冲卢比贬值压力。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡受阻 / 原油供应中断风险 / 油价飙升
美国就业数据 / 加息预期 / 全球风险资产估值下调 / 避险资产受益
美对俄制裁法案 / 俄罗斯能源金融受限 / 大宗商品波动 / 欧洲经济冲击
印度外资购债放宽 / 资本流入 / 卢比走强 / 新兴市场资金分流
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia / BBC News (Business) / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFBVV95cUxPY1h5Qk1UNmoyeVpUMGJlLVlteWk0TTlqd1pCSHNGX1h5Q1c2aW9PZ3NaY1BNM1NHdWs5bUFHRHdkX0ZPallOVFRMNmVBSkFMM1prWW9mUHVKSmpZa3MxSWZBQkh3aFNqNWpCRERmYzBUREN3MzVUcUgzRFpxNVdaX0pkMC1SazlvX2c?oc=5
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzgyjk2weo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260606/912e6ead9b444be290f454777f877243/c.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/05/us/politics/iran-attack-drones-hormuz.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260606081137QFK
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260606/eae75f7046dc4589b87dc6d2ca6a350b/c.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/how-the-us-naval-blockade-has-bled-iran-of-nearly-6bn-in-oil-revenues?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gdp-rose-7-7-in-fy26-7-8-in-q4-rbi-trims-this-years-projection-to-6-6/articleshow/131540667.cms
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/regional-tensions-grow-us-iran-140940634.html
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/canadian-miner-taps-brazil-to-carve-china-out-of-rare-earth-supply-chain
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/06-06/10635218.shtml
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2yq0dj58o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/641055-us-house-russia-sanctions-bill/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/05/business/stock-market-jobs-report.html
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-cuts-growth-hikes-inflation-forecast-as-west-asia-crisis-bites/articleshow/131540469.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/5/zelenskyy-putin-choosing-war-by-rejecting-offer-for-in-person-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/are-us-and-iran-closer-to-war-or-to-a-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260605225934y2G
- [19] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/g-secs-rally-as-govt-and-rbi-ease-foreign-investing-rules/articleshow/131540533.cms
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNd3lVaV9sbzJUbWphYmttd1hmZEpuVk1rdFhCLUdhQ3ZyMVJlRk0tQU1vUG85SExFb0hfR2M4RHZXZHRkZzlRMXpaUkVNQ2R6ZnVNUUs2QXNaMVFrb3hLemhKdFlUemVVRFN5VlFqU25nSXRGellhMERIRkhCOXBkc2FNXy1KY3p5bW9uLUJycGlJT2RsMnVZVWgycDZtWDdaZno0eERsRHowdmZ3OHNWMEJWbkpHdF91VEpuTEE2T1ZEZw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/exclusive-iran-supreme-leader-adviser-162047145.html
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1wFBVV95cUxQaF9IeHFIdjFvU25TUmF5TnpSMzgyc0V2cGVWbE5PTWJ6cUJOX0xCaTFCRUFvd0VJMFI1NFJybVQyanJCdnV5WldCZDFQdW5RdFFDNjRXOFdkblFPb1drd3N2QUl2c01ER3dsU2FxNDBMR1pqRHBXRHNvREZieWFPdmFxLTl5QlFhdUZhM0JiSmNlR0NtTXliTUpMTnM2dzRtbk1vc2xtUjlzMnpLa2NVMlRxQks4RGRkZUlnM3hkT2FIaU9tU2FUaHdMLW5HNG5FU1NDV1pNYw?oc=5
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260606/39ea86c505ea4b46b236852f195dec1d/c.html
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqpqx5qe40o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-06-05
2026-06-05
进展要点
- 特朗普关税提案可能引发贸易伙伴报复，全球贸易体系面临冲击
- 欧盟拟扩大海军任务至霍尔木兹海峡，需27国一致同意，存在不确定性
- 美国对伊朗政策强硬，可能进一步制裁协助伊朗的国家
- 韩国当局口头干预韩元汇率，但效果有限，可能采取更严厉措施
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
特朗普关税提案 / 贸易成本上升 / 全球供应链扰动 / 风险资产下跌
韩元贬值 / 新兴市场资金外流 / 美元走强 / 风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / The New York Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260605/7973c1317fd1426bab5ffe07fa264bd2/c.html
- [2] https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariff-proposal/story?id=133584802
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260605061817JZV
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/640972-eu-hormuz-naval-mission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/middle-east-matters/20260604-strait-of-hormuz-oil-crisis-an-opportunity-for-syria
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOT003RTBZYjRUa3FHNEZweGRpNnM0VHhLQy1iY1lTSEVoQXl4NXgtVHN2RWhINktWRnd1SG9xZ09fYV9HLUJXT0ZnNDRBeko3S2tydXp6cmN2VHdndmxpLW84c2N1TmE2VURFTXUxQnc5WmJQLXQzalFVUllTLXpKX2steEc5dGJxWldFTlpzWURsa2M1cHgyOEN0YjNpOUxaY25SQmJ3cENONUwwNDJOZHVubS1vSHJDdEZWVTZudXlNd29P?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/hezbollah-rejects-us-brokered-ceasefire-deal-between-israel-and-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/brazil-to-ramp-up-oil-output-as-asia-looks-for-iran-alternative
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-05/10634491.shtml
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-open-letter-to-putin-zelenskyy-calls-for-meeting-and-ceasefire/article71062934.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-s-zelenskyy-proposes-putin-meeting-on-ending-war/a-77427312?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/el-nino-is-here-says-european-agency-amid-pacific-warming/articleshow/131516828.cms
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/climate/trump-coal-plants-funding.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPaFlaYlY3cW1haWpSUVNzWmZLV0VOTm9TaEM1UFdxdFBOSUJaWWJzS0x5VnZEaXpQNmZvX2JTLUhpb21jMnFEeVE2bERvRWl6cXl2cThpVTdHTThZUUhVQ2pXMTBrRnYyWXJCdW9DRXBCTWxXOHNLdTBrZVZOaXQ2N2lHQ3V0VkszYWZmNDhCb1gwQXBiaHRHZnlzTGMwTUtIeUtj?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQXzhwX2s4YkZjdnpieUdhRmVDSjZMTnhabmdMMkpXWFFFcHRnLTBIQkpTLWtYaUdweTBTRnRfQVFTM0d3Z2R4SzdNaXIya09vZmpRbWRPM1p5UG15S3ZVWGJpcWFWZ19OekQtR2JfWFpWQ0ZDZVJNQk1VWGJwM2laVFhIRUYtOFBQa0NPcmJrRGhHQklaNU9HZkRwbmUwbm8?oc=5
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/640955-trump-new-ceasefire-definition/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260604224303UPC
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606050922570pg
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/lebanon-latest-hezbollah-rejects-us-plan-as-israel-continues-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260604-zelensky-in-open-letter-to-putin-proposes-face-to-face-meeting-and-full-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/4/saudi-energy-minister-call-for-stable-energy-sector-on-russia-visit?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260604-israel-s-defence-minister-says-military-operations-in-lebanon-will-continue-despite-ceasefire
2026-06-04
2026-06-04
进展要点
- 美伊谈判：本周末为关键窗口，若达成MOU则霍尔木兹海峡重开，油价回落；若失败则冲突持续
- 美国关税：USTR提议需经国会审议，但特朗普行政令可能先行，关注周末前是否有正式宣布
- 俄制裁：众院法案需参议院通过，短期内对俄油气出口影响有限，但信号意义明显
- 欧盟钢铁关税：中国可能采取反制措施，钢铁贸易摩擦升温
关联路径
伊朗袭击科威特巴林 / 中东供应中断风险 / 油价上涨
美伊谈判 / 霍尔木兹重开预期 / 风险溢价回落
美国对60国加征关税 / 贸易成本上升 / 全球股市承压
乌克兰袭俄炼厂 / 俄罗斯燃油配给 / 成品油供应紧张
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / France 24 #2 / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Google News - World / RT News / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606040527043L3
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz-in-gulf-flare-up-163028785.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-and-bahrain-attacked-as-iran-launches-missile-and-drone-barrage?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260604/5911e51f489f4127b93e816da4c3cb94/c.html
- [5] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/cd5a74e6bbd7f913.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260603-iran-says-no-tangible-progress-in-war-talks-trump-says-deal-close
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/03/43198
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-04/10633942.shtml
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/us/house-russia-ukraine-sanctions-aid.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPSlpZSWlVS1B3RlpKRm5DcjZDc0pKMnBLM2x6NG9UWlM5THVxaksyZ2o2MDRtQjFXcEl5SE1aaTNrZHhiNF9ibUp2WHItTkZmSVFDZW9USDMtTTIxREJoMXZhNVNMdFhocU9RT2ZYd3gtSlJ6RjRmc3Fway1nWDVxNlZNelBMYnlBcUVQaEtGc3pKNlh4SmU3WkM2VzBHRk5DdVJjNmg5TGZaZXZYLUZkVzZqWGIyQ28?oc=5
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640941-gulf-airport-devastate-patriot-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-admin-proposes-broad-new-tariffs-top-trading/story?id=133552819
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260603/0c63de9689184545b5a5ad992cdd15de/c.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-and-russia-draw-closer-amid-opec-upheaval/a-77387950?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/us-moots-12-5-tariff-on-india-53-others-over-forced-labour/articleshow/131494315.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-releases-cctv-footage-of-deadly-iranian-strike-on-airport?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-labels-iran-attack-heinous?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604055025eGh
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604054336IBQ
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPcV9YT3A5dzhhTjBwYTZtM0tQc1JGZkhSZl9JY0FFSWV3eUtxNU1oMHNHQ3piS1VxTnJMb1hwOWJDZ2gwc05BdHFJX1k4ZTI2OE5qUzhoRmJYVWZBZ3lpV3FhVnA2S0s2WklWa3dGczFnRXFmRFpGbUxFTTNlMjFuMlBSM0ljM3hNX21TdzI1SHRxUzJRUVEyM2RSQ054ZERXdWJCc25NXzU1VFpjWmpHSXpoRDZldlk?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQZWtvZ043SmhSOWZFck94VFJscTREUzlfYzZWQUVnWGdDM0V4ZzVXeTZJOUk4ZzN1RWZRWWY1cm5JWkkzNC1lUVM4WEtDMWQ2aHVYNXI3Tk1nZDlGcTdvUHJ0alBGM01kT0xhQXoyNnpLM3loQllhQjJ3N0FaSzFEeg?oc=5
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-denies-impasse-in-iran-talks-after-fresh-strikes-on-gulf-countries
- [24] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260603-iranian-revolutionary-guards-claim-attacks-on-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/briefing/state-of-iran-war.html
- [26] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/f36904fae0a30fb3.html
2026-06-03
2026-06-03
进展要点
- 美伊双方和谈信号矛盾，特朗普否认谈判暂停，但军事行动持续，短期停火可能性低
- 日本央行面临更大压力，可能被迫进一步加息或扩大干预规模
- 美国将公布对华301调查结果，若加征新关税可能引发中方报复
- 美国对巴西加征25%关税，可能影响能源和农产品贸易
关联路径
美伊军事冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应风险 / 油价上涨
日元贬值 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场汇率压力 / 资本外流
美国关税扩张 / 全球贸易摩擦升级 / 供应链成本上升 / 通胀粘性
央行储备转向黄金 / 美元储备份额下降 / 长期美元汇率承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/3/iran-war-live-us-strikes-irans-qeshm-says-tehran-attacks-kuwait-bahrain?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085457liG
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-160-against-dollar-erasing-intervention-gains
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/c93fcadd37c747f8810b4ad6dfdd63e6/c.html
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/politics/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy02rz27l32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-strikes-on-us-bases-in-kuwait-air-defences-intercept-missiles-drones/articleshow/131473476.cms
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-03/10633255.shtml
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260602/19640fb1fceb4718ba72049b59b728bc/c.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9xb2xWUEo3ZzZMWGdYTU55NjBlNXcteWV1VEptRGVONlN3RjMyRHcyT19tbmlDOWVJMm5saWdTMXhpRlFudnFxZ1NkUk14VzRxUnpZNHFpT3hobi16NVBRclpXYm9pSnE2Y2h1MEgxeFIyVnFDMTYtZ0pHRQ?oc=5
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000300315
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/extreme-heat-tests-indias-record-milk-production/article71054177.ece
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/035fd44840cd4ee7acefc52fd6608c58/c.html
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085712OKE
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/2a5a9d998b994fa4b0025c8e95aa8fb3/c.html
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hormuz-shut-shipping-services-through-other-routes-to-west-asia-up-2x/articleshow/131473482.cms
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606030657498CS
- [19] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/wmos-el-nino-alert-raises-odds-of-severe-impact-on-monsoon/articleshow/131471238.cms
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000200315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/2/us-targets-brazil-with-new-tariffs-over-trade-practices?traffic_source=rss
2026-06-02
2026-06-02
进展要点
- 特朗普称一周内或与伊朗达成协议延长停火并开放海峡，但要求伊朗更明确承诺。
- 美伊谅解备忘录草案包含60天休战、30天内恢复海峡通行，特朗普退回要求强化措辞。
- 伊朗以以色列在黎巴嫩行动为由暂停与美国谈判。
关联路径
中东紧张 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升
油价上涨 / 能源成本上升 / 通胀预期升温 / 金价承压
伊朗暂停谈判 / 地缘风险溢价上升 / 避险资产波动
美国原油出口创纪录 / 部分缓解全球供应紧张 / 限制油价进一步上行
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / RT News / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260601/59d88d17d5724ae78bbb03fcb5e06d38/c.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/iframe/2026/06-01/10632517.shtml
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-stopping-message-exchanges-u-135511168.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-prices.html
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/640816-iran-us-talks-halted/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260602090955JZ9
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260602/2d10592d12f146b58a13b5f9ee71cdd7/c.html
- [8] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5589941/jepang-desak-iran-pastikan-keamanan-lalu-lintas-kapal-di-selat-hormuz
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBKVm1FZUJVREJqeUotclZ2UjhMRXNNa2UtQVZUZnQwZ3Y0UlRmSVIxeDRwa2F6Zzg5SjhXU3hRamJXZEtYcnZRQWhFdUNzcjkzQ05jdUNJNi13dw?oc=5
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260601/ebfd38301c6b49ec9fc5271d47a31bb2/c.html
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260602/62940a037253475787fcd251237e0d70/c.html
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260602083401GRz
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-02/10632565.shtml
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-02/10632559.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606020801502F0
- [16] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/us-crude-exports-hit-record-180025400.html
- [17] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/strait-hormuz-splitting-u-iranian-150333617.html
- [18] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260601/1c346a463f64418bbab883b57c48fac4/c.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNLVo1X1doOVJXTjdTcTJkbnFNLVV2SGVuR1ZLc3pVdUpMVUpLaVU3OE9wT3JNc3dLYUxkX3ZRbmJpTmZoZmpqc2ZiN1hiemhBS0huR3JJUWwzYVp4dWxTamhGeTF3QS10NFB6bE95djFXMm5aVzdvSjZBRVBzWW1WNXFraU96TWpHM2FUeTJnZTlhWUxoRU5xN0VBaw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260602075802WrH
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260602073206f1j
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260602072628Ihc
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260602064847ZIg
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606020507105ky
- [25] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--iran-us-042347978.html
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260601233601vWN
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-01/10632523.shtml
2026-06-01
2026-06-01
进展要点
- 美国对华AI芯片出口管制进一步收紧，短期内难以逆转。
- 欧盟可能临时冻结俄油价格上限，但内部存在分歧。
- 印尼资源出口国营化政策生效，后续关注执行力度。
- 美伊协议短期内难以达成，特朗普强硬立场将持续。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应短缺 / 原油 / 成品油价格上涨 / 通胀预期上升
乌克兰袭击俄能源设施 / 俄炼化产能下降 / 成品油供应偏紧 / 裂解价差扩大
美国对华AI芯片管制 / 中国半导体进口受限 / 全球科技供应链重组 / 相关股价波动
印尼资源出口国营化 / 煤炭 / 棕榈油供给收紧 / 国际买家寻找替代来源 / 短期价格波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / The New York Times / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Times of India / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260601083800WLF
- [2] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kuenstliche-intelligenz-usa-verschaerfen-exportregeln-fuer-ki-chips-nach-china-a-15b42aee-08a0-41c4-a840-9dfff45b15da
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/business/us-military-guides-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/640792-eu-change-oil-price-cap-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-31/10631913.shtml
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1w2xve315do?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-reveals-key-iran-concession-135725729.html
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/31/the-largest-israeli-advance-into-lebanon-in-years?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukraine-hits-russian-energy-targets-and-denies-striking-kremlin-occupied-nuclear-plant/article71045684.ece
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-sends-back-revised-iran-deal-text-seeks-tougher-language-on-nuclear-terms-strait-of-hormuz-reopening/articleshow/131425476.cms
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260531-ukraine-hits-russian-energy-targets-denies-striking-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNc29NbGRQTERqM0hUOU9zc1ZhVlFIaGktVUNkRjAtbVoydV9uRGlrSDkwemFHcTQ2ZFh6WUVOd3hwb2xYTWJ3NnpKSGZ1YW8yVjI1NEk5bk5HRDY1b1B0Q1ZycWVmYktIMWVhOEdxdVlXSUc2LWtsTy1TNzUxYVh1ZjloM3NsOFR1TEVaVVVWZHFxQlk4UlRBMnpoWElnYWlxZ01OVUNhbUVCYUVt?oc=5
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260601001700320
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260601011051eIh
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260531235807ifN
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/31/iran-%e2%81%a0says-some-gas-production-restored-at-south-pars-facility?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-does-not-trust-us-as-trump-toughens-terms/article71045389.ece
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNMjQ3WTRRZnVOa2RaRFMyT2NIckVQYnZudnJ2TnpwOWttUU1BTldxazl2azJRZFRxRDlScXpKanAtdnpfbjBiVEgtckpNNUUzY2lJUGp4OC1jSXBsdHJnQmt0Z3hPdVlUam9yWWtJQ3VVN1JTTExmNDRXTzZVLUhGaGpGcDl3MGcybzZYOG1aeXlqM216ZXRXUWt4NzBGVktEeVNnanBTQWE3VWlVd2l6VXp5NA?oc=5
- [19] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260601002300320
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-01/10631944.shtml
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPdzF6anpWTVZuYm52VFphS290bU54SVhQMFk5MGotaU1saVVXMnNZWDhtd3UyR05YV0tXU2ktdXZlZ2drcllMcVhhWGtyejJ0S2FRQl9qRmwyaVJyTjB0MlJGMnBaMG9nekhfRWpiejhRQlVwa0FZWFlrOFFFSlRLeEVXYlU5dElGOTJwUWVYZ3I3MlBja1FtZnUtSktWeU54NFZNc0lB?oc=5
2026-05-31
2026-05-31
进展要点
- 美国维持对伊朗海上封锁，且不排除重启军事干预（赫格塞斯表态）。
- 卡塔尔作为中间人提出临时通行费方案，但伊朗与美方未达成一致。
- 美国财政部已制裁伊朗波斯湾海峡管理局（5月28日），可能扩大制裁范围。
关联路径
伊朗控制霍尔木兹 / 石油供应风险 / 原油 / 天然气价格上行 / 通胀预期回升
美伊军事对峙升级 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）需求增加 / 风险资产承压
乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂 / 俄罗斯成品油出口下降 / 全球柴油 / 燃料油价格上涨
霍尔木兹封锁持续 / 航运保险与通行成本上升 / 全球贸易链条受影响
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Times of India / The Hindu / IRNA English / Kompas.com Internasional / ORF.at News / Le Monde International / Der Spiegel International / 20 Minutes Politique / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-31/10631598.shtml
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/30/iran-reasserts-control-over-hormuz-strait-as-deal-with-us-remains-elusive?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/05/30/secretrio-de-defesa-diz-que-eua-esto-prontos-a-retomar-ataques-contra-ir-se-no-houver-acordo.ghtml
- [4] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-30/tres-meses-de-cierre-de-ormuz-cientos-de-buques-varados-en-el-golfo-persico-mientras-sus-cascos-se-llenan-de-moluscos.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260531085702Dxh
- [6] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/usa-angriff-strasse-von-hormus-100.html
- [7] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/USA-attackieren-Frachtschiff-im-Golf-von-Oman-id30875454.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOQWtYa3FybVNsX1R4cDZsSDVpUDhZNHhCSV9MRHhHdTFSbmlyOWg2ZTRYamJib1BxODludzRCR0VqZGdBODR6dE9OVjVKVFNaOXN1VEpkOEhETmVDcDEzLUxCaFRVQ3FJeDJNN1AweGFJY3FrN1dVUjdoSlY2TDhfRHZnYV9BUnJuQnk2eFFZX1g0SU5Y?oc=5
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-says-it-is-more-than-capable-of-resume-war-with-iran-as-talks-remain-unresolved/articleshow/131414356.cms
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukraine-keeps-up-assault-on-russian-oil-sites-as-kyiv-expects-more-strikes/article71042488.ece
- [11] https://en.irna.ir/news/86168715/Iran-managing-the-Strait-of-Hormuz-with-full-authority-Central
- [12] https://internasional.kompas.com
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3431875
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/05/30/le-cours-de-l-or-s-est-soudainement-inverse-depuis-le-declenchement-des-hostilites-par-les-etats-unis-en-iran_6695225_3234.html
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iaea-fordert-zugang-zu-getroffener-turbinenhalle-in-akw-saporischschja-a-4f9a3061-fa62-4a5c-b05a-7f7313aeec33
- [16] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/ukraine/4226259-20260530-guerre-ukraine-prise-position-joueuse-ukrainienne-oleksandra-oliynykova-frappes-drones-russie?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [17] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/nahost-krieg/artikel/nahost-krieg-usa-greifen-erneut-im-iran-an-50530859
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/640773-us-reaper-drones-destroyed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQLTV0TDhtUVZoNElLM1BlNXBtVmN4QkkxVF9aU1c3MHowMk83T3E1LVVOQ0pYSHMxeFRFM2ZOREZZbldHTkNKZmlEa3I1VVVRT25QeFFBLWhKQm1QVFZNczFrRUF0MTBvUmNEekg4aTFDTl9lV2h6UXpLenVpT1lVYzl2c1pOZ2o0dUlIeHpuMmJ4SmpQR3BkelpJMkgzUTU1cjBRelI5ZGJ6LUdXSXNzQnAyUnh3M2NiekR1bFp2Zw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/30/qatar-says-temporary-charges-negotiable?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBDYjJrSTNlYmVPeGh5MEJBUXdUSV9RNzhVX29SREt6Y3BLWUM2SWNsZDFTN2dFZEI2djV3eXNCT1A0S1BqNkNGUjJJcw?oc=5
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605302332372Qb
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605302205373fM
- [24] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-29/estados-unidos-e-iran-admiten-un-preacuerdo-pero-discrepan-sobre-sus-terminos.html
- [25] https://en.irna.ir/news/86167702/Araqchi-Omani-counterpart-discuss-management-of-Strait-of-Hormuz
2026-05-30
2026-05-30
进展要点
- 美联储：芝加哥联储主席暗示加息，但GDP放缓可能制约行动，关注6月会议前瞻。
- 日本央行：创纪录干预显示汇率底线，但效果持续性存疑，需警惕干预后反弹。
- 美伊谈判：特朗普最终决定可能在48小时内释放，协议与否将决定伊朗石油回归节奏。
- 欧盟贸易：德国批准更强硬措施后，欧盟可能推进具体限制，中方反制清单待观察。
关联路径
美伊协议确定性 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航 / 原油供给风险溢价
以色列-黎巴嫩升级 / 中东战区扩大 / 避险资产流入黄金
美联储加息预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场资本外流
欧盟对华贸易摩擦 / 全球供应链风险 / 风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Nikkei Asia / Times of India / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260530084204GYK
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/netanyahu-says-israeli-forces-have-crossed-lebanons-litani-river?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQWV85YWg3MmVfOVloemFFRkN2eWhycXYtV0huendnME9XZ3ltRnJ1SXBNakVDcGo4OVFoZVNVbU9Fc19GTUNYTHRMeTA0Q3RicHB2TUZBRUJMV2JDb215QmM0LWlrMTRNeEN5dm1fSEE2RzZxdWpEUW9WMFZGNG83VVAxVGtrZjNVVFkxaHRVXzl3a2hiVmZuSUp5X0JaN0E1TWtxSjRMUVZNQlg3QUxlOUJSYzR3amM?oc=5
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000251315
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-to-lift-naval-blockade-of-ports-trump-says/live-77338255?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r2d40r91qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/us-rate-hike-on-the-table-as-inflation-persists-chicago-fed-chief
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260529/c8f2bd52fad54a01b6872e804fc07aec/c.html
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-will-accept-only-iran-deal-that-meets-his-red-lines-white-house-official-after-2-hour-meeting/articleshow/131402044.cms
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/middleeast/irans-hard-liners-deal.html
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-droht-armenien-bei-weiterer-eu-annaeherung-a-25ac0ff2-909d-41b8-8974-7f55c7ff074e
- [12] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/inflation-rises-isnt-hotter-expected-134746577.html
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530042120YEX
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/trump-heads-into-situation-room-to-potentially-finalise-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530000403PDN
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxNV3dWOVpUZldOcWpPTGI4aHlVUkNXdmVnaHN5TmVrNmhPTmNWWDhrM1RiZmtvTzQ3NGZnSklsUW9saWdQN0Jqb2NwTjVUOXJUS2toeFIzc3NhR0FCdXJQN3pnMVhMUHpTMW9Ub3VQc2xfVHIyS1RscDZZei1CeldDam1rbjJjZGhXUE1MS2lMN2FnMGJjMlZ5ellWdlpKWW1zZzRmSVpwZWNDUDU1VGVVdHVkUkJONklsZVdBY0NTUVIwZnQtaTRVVmVUMC1na3FQRHRv0gHTAUFVX3lxTE1ZdUg1dUdFdXpCbEx3Uk96R0hjUGs5d3RtRzdWcnNQQ0tnT1AybXcwY0piMGVYcGY4amw4M3NSZEZIc2ExeVY1azltaW14MW1IY3lZbEdwTEd1Ri1TZnBHVVR3UGFfS1FVNE1kRGVFMDN1YVUwdGc5c0MwSXlBRGl
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000253315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000400315
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPTlZSS3ZkeXNFYnYzNVl6N1hkYWNMM3prZ0xDaTNsaFh4SThvdlE2TG1LYjM5QmhEay1pUzNWYldwVTVmOTlCaDVQMHhDS2J3SmlBd0FjZko4M0tqbWtaSzY0TEdnQ2hIV2N3ZW1BejJhWWlQem83Z3pkNHkwbG05NEZNRUluRTA?oc=5
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/60-chance-of-deficient-monsoon-as-imd-downgrades-rain-forecast/articleshow/131398673.cms
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/29/trump-says-final-determination-to-be-made-on-possible-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/meeting-now-to-make-final-determination-trump-on-us-iran-draft-truce-deal-lists-conditions-for-tehran/articleshow/131394024.cms
2026-05-29
2026-05-29
进展要点
- 美伊协议待特朗普批准，若通过则制裁部分解除，否则强化施压。
- 美国财政部继续打击伊朗石油收入，可能扩大制裁范围。
- 美联储因通胀高企考虑加息，市场预期利率路径上修。
- 韩国央行暗示适时加息，全球央行或追随。
关联路径
美伊协议 / 霍尔木兹通航恢复 / 油价下跌 / 通胀缓和 / 加息预期降温
伊朗导弹袭击 / 冲突升级 / 油价飙升 / 风险资产抛售 / 避险资产上涨
美国制裁 / 伊朗石油出口减少 / 供应收紧 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力加大
美国通胀高企 / 美联储鹰派 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场资本外流
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / ABC News / The Hindu / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605290832212qG
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-29/10630554.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/world/middleeast/iran-us-blockade-strait-hormuz.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNVXZHUmc2Qk4zNGljejlrMi1VNWhiTVRJSXY2NjFCajdqNUx4STVoMmhJdGc1cmt2TndQQTQ0dWdtSlhJaUFFZHFGNTVobC00NUdCLWhSM1JHS0FNMjcydXIxNndJTG9MdzBKR2tXa0RTLWVWQlNPLXRQejhoaWU5RXdFTVVfQnVxdkROdFdjM193OEk10gGaAUFVX3lxTE00YXdFXzd0cmlXaTFpOTVzYTBnTzJ0X0VZcTVOUU01NXNkOEFka1BKS3dPMGx1TEoyVFo4aTVzaFQyS0ZKNTZrSHV1dllQcjlIRUxDazVPYTJhLUVwaWFRTHZiS203R0xqU055V0FUN2xDeS1sNE9Ib1VuSndybzdqY05na2V0M2Z0Qno5RjE4dldPNkNEWUpqTHc?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-imposes-fresh-sanctions-irans-202923688.html
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/the-suez-and-panama-canals-charge-tolls-why-is-iran-s-hormuz-fee-triggering-global-outrage/a-77325707?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/28/us-inflation-surges-to-three-year-high-amid-tensions-with-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260529000200315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/gulf-of-suspicion-us-and-iran-said-to-be-nearing-deal-even-as-missiles-fly/articleshow/131373522.cms
- [10] https://abcnews.com/Business/inflation-hits-highest-level-3-years-feds-preferred/story?id=133384351
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/shaky-ceasefire-in-iran-war-challenged-again-as-kuwait-faces-a-missile-attack/article71033574.ece
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3p62xddq4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260529080048teK
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605290756043tl
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-us-reportedly-agree-to-deal-pending-trump-approval/live-77321432?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-us-trade-air-strikes-042536270.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/28/us-treasury-threatens-oman-with-sanctions-over-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxNYzh5Yk1BT2VYanN4LU1UbjhTWjA5MHhMZ291azRNSDdIWDhfZFV1WlhTY195TWtLM2dYdnlIWWZMT1pRVGlRTjBEbG9ERTFKR1l4R2ROVG9nMjU2YkhIWG9oZTk1Q0U1SXdlYlNEbkJTR05mMkJ6T3p0ZEMtaGZnSTliT3F5SWF2Z0RKRkduXzRXV0JtSzFUcC16bjR2UjdEbkhObk5rVjU2RXdzT3RXbE1abHYzVVNTOHAtN1FB?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1YMExSTEZDejBiVFI2UmR1ZklvOWdQMEU0Z2d1Q3FhQlo3VnhJZ0l1LW9tZUdUNXp3Njh5VElRWjk5RlZFd3poclJ4eEJhR2hZdFBqbWtyUXliSV9KVVJraFAwVkItbGR6RUhOOTVFYkU?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/28/us-attacks-bandar-abbas-again-why-is-the-port-so-important-for-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/key-inflation-gauge-worsens-americans-shell-gasoline-133380626
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/business/inflation-pce-gauge.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-29/10630550.shtml
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/briefing/iran-inflation-spelling-bee.html
2026-05-28
2026-05-28
进展要点
- 特朗普坚持极限施压，拒绝制裁豁免，短期内美伊谈判难有突破。
- 伊朗泄露协议草案意在争取国际舆论，但美方否认草案有效性。
- 美国可能进一步强化对伊朗石油出口的封锁力度。
- 以色列在黎巴嫩的行动可能扩大为更大规模冲突。
关联路径
美军打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹紧张 / 油价风险溢价
特朗普拒绝制裁豁免 / 伊朗石油供应受限 / 原油价格支撑
伊朗草案协议预期 / 油价暴跌 / 风险资产短期反弹
以黎冲突升级 / 中东动荡外溢 / 避险资产需求
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPSTRRSVJycmxrcVZhN2F2OF8zR2JIWW1Ua0F4V1dIV2NIYUxEMGZSRElNYzBVVlRGazQtX1NuZGNmTzZBYWx3cWlCdVg3Q0xPQkVUZHhTM21ReXdrWHNKMDhzVHRiUkJ5N0tSM1BuNl9NbmhCMUFVRFd1N0dYelB2RkpBYmRTZDVQOExXU1JtdlVsaEw1bGR6aHJUR3lFLVN3dl9ERnVnNlF2b2lLdjhkX1dHLUJNZy1HT1dIdVNB?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260528083212iEh
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-28/10629842.shtml
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-donald-trump-droht-verbuendetem-oman-mit-angriff-bei-kooperation-mit-iran-a-b4f5e555-ff27-421e-bb7b-3f9ab1ff8a57
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/27/world/middleeast/trump-oman-strait-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/27/markets-rally-amid-hopes-of-us-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj3pgrpmlklo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-will-watch-over-strait-of-hormuz/live-77308741?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260528/24dc2617402e4cc899f99d088fe230c3/c.html
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260528000252315
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640645-uae-us-israel-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-says-draft-u-deal-123342246.html
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260528083300IdI
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-28/10629840.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605280827031Vt
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-28/10629830.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQaGJEcFZnZDZvT19ReFQ0bU0tTTFseThKc0hKZTJlN0VRSHN1TDR3RlVXSkRQRzBTMlpRSE5zalFSSUxmVmFkTWhkMDRKdXdxTmFkai1iVHdYRzRZblBTcjVlcVpSeHduRURoeHlXemJ1cTFwakRmeW1iZkRtZ2o0MVZJMi1NR3hLM0ZFeFBJZXpldDVQVXhCOUpLSGgyRE1IQ0pPUnl5YmthUXVCTkU0aHU2V3FIV2EwT1Fz?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/27/trump-says-no-one-will-control-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/27/trump-appears-to-threaten-oman-with-bombing-over-strait-of-hormuz-impasse?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-wie-irans-geisterflotte-donald-trumps-blockade-aushebelt-a-0f8712c0-1303-48c9-9198-2f5010554c19
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8pw464986o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxQR1RuVG9VYnY4b1hEczN1SFBCZDJROHZQZlRMUjRxeHIwczhfWEM4QndTRGYzcjg0ZTcxejJxOGs0elBieU9ncnFWM3F5QXU3YkVJVHUtemtDc0VIMEJoQ0tzTzFaM2stTHRHWmVnZUZwYzBlRTFVdnZ6cTFQUzNKTkxLY2pxajA?oc=5
2026-05-27
2026-05-27
进展要点
- 特朗普将于5月27日召集戴维营内阁会议，讨论伊朗问题，可能决定后续军事或外交路径。
- 美国或进一步扩大对伊朗制裁范围，并推动盟友协同封锁霍尔木兹替代路线。
- 英国能源账单上涨将加剧政府生活成本危机应对压力，可能触发更多财政补贴。
关联路径
美国空袭伊朗 / 霍尔木兹通行受阻 / 原油 / LNG供给溢价 / 能源价格 +4%
能源涨价 / 英国 / 日本等进口国消费者负担加重 / 通胀预期上行
Quad关键矿产协议 / 中美供应链竞争 / 锂 / 稀土等价格地缘溢价
俄乌紧张升级 / 欧洲避险资金外流 / 金价 / 美元走强
来源
Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / The Hindu / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTFBqYzdyRkVnYnVJbDBrS0Fpb2VULTI2XzNIQlN2ZVZSMlg0b01VLTJXY1VDeDJ6NTlTQ1BScXdKTGEzaTdUWWR0UFdyalJneDlyUGZEckFpSFMzcjJvVFNfVUhJblIxWFM0MktoeXBLcG94UFk?oc=5
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8pw464986o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260526-iran-says-us-violated-ceasefire-with-strikes-near-hormuz-war
- [4] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5584131/washington-post-fase-awal-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-pencabutan-blokade
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260527061626j2f
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brent-crude-jumps-4-us-193926790.html
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/world/canada/canada-germany-natural-gas-lng.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-accuses-us-of-breaking-truce-after-new-strikes/article71026498.ece
- [9] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/china-amasses-30-day-coal-supply-ahead-of-el-nino-power-crunch
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/26/tehran-labels-us-attacks-gross-violation-says-it-is-prepared-to-respond?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-tanker-meldet-explosion-vor-der-kueste-omans-a-0c1ca1d1-f70c-405c-92d3-2d5450eab0a1
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/eye-on-china-partners-to-mobilise-20-billion-for-critical-minerals-deal/articleshow/131337201.cms
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/640590-us-no-authority-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQdWNxOXY0a2JjUEZLa3dfU1JWRTh2YU1vOUpXcEtfdVMzY1dWSWpESlFJUEttcXdQaGxjMk81eW1IZjFHcE9ZcXhrbkRXUFAwdFNrMEo5cHpYcHN3WHNLWGg2VmJESy1oQmFUZ2tkTTYxN0JWZmJ3dGM4N3BhV0RjVmw4WFl3TlM5RUtLSE5Ybk1TYmxDR1R3bkV2X0Z1S3UtaHQ3VnNfVVlCU0Yy?oc=5
- [15] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5584127/centcom-as-serang-pangkalan-rudal-dan-kapal-penebar-ranjau-iran
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTFBDb0ZISnNqX0dMNHVHNER2VWU3M3gxZGxGdUxWcTd5SkZHWndsMDRyeFo0Q0FSRkhidkhlUEJpYnczUVhkaVNwZlRJcHJFOE94NkhrZ2E3SGJ5WWR0ajJNMWFkNUM5alJLdmI5M3Q3YThHQXRSOEE?oc=5
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260527015437ddQ
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605262139534lN
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-s-purchasing-power-sinks-to-new-low-as-oil-prices-sap-strength
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/eu-member-states-summon-russian-141543128.html
2026-05-26
2026-05-26
进展要点
- 美伊协议细节仍在敲定，核问题被推迟，可能为未来分歧埋下伏笔。
- 特朗普政府坚持“最大压力”政策，短期内不会放松对伊朗制裁。
- 英国放松对俄制裁可能削弱西方联盟对俄制裁的整体效果。
- 沙特借机提升红海港口物流地位，可能重塑区域能源贸易路线。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断 / 原油 / LNG供应风险 / 油价飙升
美伊谈判进展 / 霍尔木兹海峡重开 / 原油供应增加 / 油价暴跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 基辅受威胁 / 避险需求 / 黄金上涨、风险资产承压
英国对俄制裁松动 / 俄罗斯能源出口回升 / 全球成品油价格调整
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605260849226bc
- [2] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-usa-greifen-ziele-im-iran-an-mitten-in-verhandlungen-zum-kriegsende-a-35074028-1cd5-4e3b-bcff-af0425d0fb4c
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201690
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzzn4y1n8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260525/104870725f26430aac971137b3b40e2f/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/26/iran-war-live-israel-pounds-lebanon-iranian-officials-in-qatar-for-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-26/10628481.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004353315
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/640566-iranian-speedboat-attacks-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/russia-says-magnetic-mines-found-101635715.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4MHBZb25FbHBBa1QzNEI4T2tjaDdiYVZjWUJIb3huNHBYbGxIbldJNjlWWE5Ca3dTQ3JJNmxQTVIwdjNxVFMxZWRfWmNvSExOZ1RDZTdFTFB4Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/iran-to-open-hormuz-30-days-after-us-deal-to-end-fighting-source
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-iran-deal-must-be-great-and-meaningful-or-us-will-walk-away/article71022492.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-emerges-as-gulfs-key-trade-route-as-iran-war-blocks-hormuz-strait/articleshow/131310656.cms
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/c4e3ed15d098de0a.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526080022bhb
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526062910IBB
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNcWFSYzlYSDhhR3BSOHB1Q0RXalE0ZHpHVGhXTGlJYUp2M0hjTGszVlN1Q2p3LTVPSi1DSjZpTVYtQW9lM291OFk4N0hRYkI0X0RGRjdtcUVRcjZyM2NiX2loQmlYcEJlZWRRdE9ubGJTbV96VUk1U0FCaldGcUc0RjdGTdIBiAFBVV95cUxObHVDM01oY0VteWt1OVdlYUVPcDR3VHlWOHdSZEVNUUNMblpLb012WFpRVFlNNU82MTlEN2pmOEZBVElrT3lERXliS3Nrc29HNmFLSXdYRHYyMTlTc0ZpVWV5eDV5bTlUelJnM18zYTlZTWw1N096WHJUQmtMemhrXzhweXV3LTVi?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOaEYzalpGWXR1T2dtLXZLUTkzOXVnSEZtNlJzc2R6S3NqaEJ0TTNuc2VRd09KcC1wYldfV0tLTW1zMzF3Rm1ULW1LejBIMGRIMXZIVFIxalAwd0t5S1dIaFZ4T2d1Wi1UVWt1RTlYaWd3MURFZXQxOGxONnF0TVVfYldsWkJENUYtZFdmVGpabXFta1VhN0Zla1pZY0hQaU9Vc3h5LUk4OTk0Z3NRaU5vZ2VUc3NVU2RlVEZoWQ?oc=5
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004351315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/25/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/d0a6a02b71d729e1.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-26/10628476.shtml
2026-05-25
2026-05-25
进展要点
- 美伊协议预计数日内签署，60天谅解备忘录包括重开海峡、免通行费、美解除对伊港口封锁及有限制裁豁免。
- 特朗普将维持海上封锁直至正式签署，不急于完成最终协议。
- 伊朗核问题及铀浓缩弃留被推迟，后续60天谈判才是关键。
- 美国国内强硬派可能推动国会否决或附加条件，增加政策不确定性。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供给减少 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀预期上升 / 央行紧缩预期
美伊和谈延期 / 不确定性持续 / 避险资产偏好（黄金、美元） / 风险资产承压
美国对俄制裁收紧 / 俄油供应减少 / 替代需求转向中东 / 中东溢价上升 / 新兴市场输入性通胀
国内政治博弈 / 协议签署延迟 / 风险事件窗口延长 / 市场波动率居高不下
来源
Xinhua World / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News Agency / Times of India / RT News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/global-oil-inventories-to-fall-below-100-days-of-demand-on-hormuz-blockade
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran.html
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809m7g29r7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525084834QL4
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260524-guerre-au-moyen-orient-que-contient-le-protocole-d-accord-entre-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-et-l-iran
- [6] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1068257/as-klaim-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQSjd6U1BqRl9fdVNBbmdTc292V29zNW04b0RWQXBZRXZqeFlnYm1DMDlYeGRUTFVBWEhWbTFUYTVRcHJWNWxvMUoyc0RNcldDZDJCalpJMW5vUkZKTnNGT3ZEdFpWcmRHcFdWYkdFRF9NRHhUb3B6QzQ2b2s2aFRKeEln?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp0040x7po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-us-ends-russia-oil-waiver-implications-for-india/article71018329.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-prepares-military-strikes-against-221519788.html
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580861/as-klaim-ada-kemajuan-soal-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/mission-unaccomplished-trumps-gulf-gamble-runs-aground-as-iran-survives-american-assault/articleshow/131293549.cms
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/640508-us-iran-deal-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260524/fa65dd01d6d84218bb140866f8c9620f/c.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran-deal.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260524-time-is-on-our-side-trump-tempers-expectations-of-a-peace-deal-with-iran
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/world/middleeast/senate-republicans-iran-deal-trump.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260525034445NmC
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBnMHpHTWRhQmlPMGIzMVV4NHYxYU9NMDlabVZvM050d3Fxc3E1ZkpuM0xFbS1tVUI2bW5iSjFRd2o3YmQ4M1NqcWw5VnI1Tjh3MHNlZ0duamNTTkE2TlpvS19UZEZLTWhwd2VIQUZVMDBqNnU1YXBDbtIBfkFVX3lxTE9WOWxkT3BiVzFPVlRQQkpTQlljMkZQNU5TSVRfLXF4cWVFRXRlbzhlSHpkcHczcHgydjB6N3RvMW16b3NsVHl3bEw3UC03QjBUdHlZOWRyaWV3MWRKYjNmTXg2bWpZSlJ3Q0hRVjRJaEU5MTFHOUdUWGlMVWxiQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580831/trump-as-pertahankan-blokade-laut-sampai-iran-teken-kesepakatan-damai
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPM2xoYUpMYWxuUzQ4aWQzaTF4d1RVYjBGUHVfMnhldHpQcXRTVFpvWk1uS2NSRWhHeUFocWxicExGYVhpcG9qOUZ2MmhMU2FCLVJfMkl3WE1xb0ozSWZEMW5HUS1FTWhwUTJ0eDZMT0xNRUVIc1pLSWRsZTNfeXZ2Q2tlOVktQlhFVW96czhxZ3BPTzZzVWtsNC1SN2MwWWR5cDFOWlIwZG1NSWRFdzVqZUhndUYzRzNjLU9Zam5R0gHDAUFVX3lxTE9HdUVDc04tX2pUWl92M3U4Z295cW5maThrNktoN0ZVaFpjN2prRWRtWUZvRjhFXy1CNWVzR2k1bHBKZThTZlJSbVR2VmVwQWd6UWZiSldjaTFfLWNULUFraElGdmFZMDAzb0J2d2xEdUdtaDYyUE0zQU00NVNvU1JQQU5BZmZFMk1ERkd1Z180eV8zMm5
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-turnaround-open-the-straits-close-the-war/articleshow/131293243.cms
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525090851EoQ
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/640524-trump-iran-deal-losers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-24
2026-05-24
进展要点
- 特朗普本周日（5月24日）可能宣布最终决策，协议与否将决定中东方向。
- 若美伊协议签署，美国可能放松对伊石油制裁，但保留部分核相关制裁。
- 英国准备参与海峡安全维护，北约盟友可能联合行动。
关联路径
美伊协议 / 重开霍尔木兹海峡 / 原油供应风险下降 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期缓和
伊朗强硬表态 / 海峡持续封锁 / 原油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球衰退风险
乌克兰袭击俄石油港口 / 俄罗斯出口减少 / 原油供应收紧 / 油价获支撑
多国联合施压 / 伊朗面临外交孤立 / 加速协议或引发对抗升级
来源
China News Service / GOV.UK - Joint Statement on Strait of Hormuz / O Globo Politics / Google News - World / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / RT News / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / ORF.at News / Times of India / Akşam / DW German News Service / n-tv Politik / The New Indian Express / The Independent / El Mundo - International News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026
- [2] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/05/23/o-que-se-sabe-sobre-o-acordo-entre-eua-e-ira-que-trump-diz-estar-em-grande-parte-negociado.ghtml
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5nWFBLT2d1d0NIaS04SU5PN2dyTGh5ZUtxN2IyWHMxNzhVbHBQRGlMNXR2V0NmenV3eGQ4WGNvMTBpZjJzVnFCdzBISDgzQV9qamRkSDRmZmdZYThOeHZFXy1WWTlUckl3M1UyTVhRZlM?oc=5
- [4] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/24/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-un-projet-d-accord-avec-l-iran-incluant-la-reouverture-du-detroit-d-ormuz-a-ete-largement-negocie-affirme-donald-trump_6691823_3210.html
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-05/24/teheran-strasse-von-hormus-bleibt-unter-irans-kontrolle
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260524085132eiZ
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640499-trump-iran-deal-finalization/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/23/us/politics/britain-strait-of-hormuz-iran.html
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-24/10627436.shtml
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/23/trump-says-iran-agreement-largely-negotiated-still-awaiting-finalisation?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3431241
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-move-closer-to-60-day-ceasefire-extension-whats-in-the-deal/articleshow/131282678.cms
- [13] https://www.aksam.com.tr/dunya/trumptan-irana-yesil-isik-anlasmaya-cok-yaklastik/haber-1669682
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/us-or-iran-who-will-win-the-hormuz-endurance-game/a-77211690?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russischer-Oelhafen-am-Schwarzen-Meer-brennt-id30851804.html
- [16] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/23/iran-and-us-are-close-to-an-understanding-aimed-at-ending-the-war-officials-say
- [17] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-war-peace-talks-deadline-b2982528.html
- [18] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/22/6a0fec11751d9c417ffaafa5-directo.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5BeXpHWk9FU1RfRHJIMGFNQ2tacWNvM2dCanhJNVlxODFJWWtrWS1aLTc2UVJKc1dGdC1HRC1fbTlQNnNBYWZYRnZJM0JTYUFXLXhYc0FEeWNCZw?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPZHlvelJfTS1RU19JMTEwRjg0UXM3UGVSOW5ndUhBMGFlVjNWN0ZSOVFEY1Z2VHZIQUt6WmFCQnBHYmdPSVFsWDZaWk5VLTJzbVJOTy12eGdQZU55V2xpWDJ6ZWNHOWxnZnFCNGxhN2tkempscE9tLXBjTmpDRjR1dDhBT01SZWEy?oc=5
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260524080552WYh
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260524080220cEB
- [23] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/05/23/quem-ganha-e-quem-perde-com-a-alta-do-petroleo-veja-reflexo-da-guerra-no-oriente-medio-nos-paises.ghtml
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/23/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-dernieres-informations_6691823_3210.html
2026-05-23
2026-05-23
进展要点
- 美联储换帅：沃什就任，市场预期转向加息，关注其首次政策信号。
- 印度央行大举抛售美元干预汇率，新兴市场货币承压。
- 法国因油价高企面临财政两难，宣布援助但预算压力加大。
关联路径
美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价上行
美联储加息预期 / 美债收益率上行 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场资金外流
中东紧张 / 避险需求 / 黄金上涨
外交突破 / 军事升级 / 风险溢价快速变化
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Fed / Google News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Times of India / Sky News / BBC News (Business) / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-23/10626977.shtml
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/irans-intensified-closure-strait-hormuz-150534298.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260522-rubio-urges-more-support-from-nato-allies-help-end-iran-war-mediation-talks-begin
- [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNenRXUWhkWi05T2JSVHQ4WTY0TTVLcmlWSXZ0cENoNEpTamhHcHRRZG1BVzJ2ZFJvYmhLTXEwZUhtdmJTN01CdDBwUnZqT1lMaGhrOUp2QncyZjhsTzhNWjJoMGVPaW5lYkRFQ1ZvSVVFLTdjRHJtZlFsbHd1SFM3N2JvekxPOGNJZHZURmFaNUNCeFU?oc=5
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260523/4f110ca2c5c849be9f9bb086feab17ef/c.html
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kevin-warsh-neuer-fed-chef-im-weissen-haus-vereidigt-a-268dae4a-6f36-452f-9e07-f8f1c3f9056c
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/gas-prices-highest-level-4-years-ahead-memorial/story?id=133219781
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523003218bkx
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640454-trump-plans-change-wedding-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-steps-up-dollar-sales-to-53-billion-to-defend-rupee-in-fy26/articleshow/131270439.cms
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/china-four-killed-and-90-trapped-following-coal-mine-accident-13547200
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz311dq3ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/world/middleeast/iran-ceasefire-us-qatar-pakistan.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260522-choc-p%C3%A9trolier-vs-d%C3%A9ficit-l-impossible-%C3%A9quation
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/economic-confidence-plummets-in-us-amid-iran-war-poll-shows?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523085743BMb
- [19] https://abcnews.com/International/4-dead-90-trapped-coal-mine-accident-northern/story?id=133238116
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523084301zk1
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260522-guerre-au-moyen-orient-un-m%C3%A9diateur-pakistanais-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-des-n%C3%A9gociations-dans-l-impasse
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOdVlHX1dTNEdZNEY1N3VuRDVvR051UFpTem9kNlloY1NiOW9yRVBCUWtUUUJXcW12VWFWbGs5YzlyV2dWWE9FRkIwblhuZFBqaVhKNzhIVnk5R2VSaTRZZ2FjTXRaaWp5UEdhTGhEN3RvOVoyQ29HR29UeDJTWXk2MU83MDB4UQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/pakistans-army-chief-in-iran-as-uss-rubio-says-slight-progress-in-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxQQThBMGFCbXlrNFNIbHFpT2ZvTWNFMDFvMVI4ekMxTTBiZURGczRvR29KMWFiZVFmUWoxQ013ajNkZlNUYk9jYURmcHN1bnpqM0JheW9GQ3pubTYyWWtDdW1HWEFKYzE5bE5PMG9yZTJDd20tTVNQNXp4RlRXLU0yVVJodVo3VmRTVTN3TkhjWUxicnRqZVlSNVU1WDZhVFVwYzZSaGN0dnBjbDRSSmhRam9sb0VscWh5anljZXR3YVZYVHZmcXVyMw?oc=5
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/warning-shot-from-iran-uae-nuclear-plant-attack-from-iraq-sparks-fears-of-wider-gulf-war-as-tehrans-proxies-step-in/articleshow/131264706.cms
2026-05-22
2026-05-22
进展要点
- 美国计划将反对伊朗通行费的决议提交联合国安理会，已有超100国参与。
- 国际能源署警告石油市场危险区，可能协调释放战略储备或推动增产。
- 欧盟考虑进一步制裁伊朗，同时内部协调能源补贴以缓解经济冲击。
- 韩国第六次冻结石油最高限价，反映各国应对能源通胀的政策困境。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡通行费威胁 / 石油供应风险 / 能源价格飙升 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策两难
俄白核演习 / 地缘政治风险溢价 / 避险资产需求上升 / 金价上涨、风险资产承压
油价上涨 / 消费者支出削减 / 需求放缓 / 经济衰退风险
伊朗战争 / 能源成本冲击 / 欧洲商业萎缩 / 欧盟增长下调 / 欧元下行
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Kremlin President News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / KBS World News / BBC News (Business) / Times of India
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260522083300AKw
- [2] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/speculators-rush-into-copper-as-sulfur-supply-risk-ai-drive-up-prices
- [3] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4125902-putin-and-lukashenko-launch-joint-exercises-involving-nuclear-forces-of-russia-and-belarus.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQZXAyY0JKTEhXY3BzdFkxXy1wM1U3VzAzY1dTYTMyRVJxenBZWEIxa3RENjFnNHI0cy1YLXhmSFNBcUhraG9pOEM2elZia2xoRnRtTUlYNUpMNU9rRmxhNkhPT3ZwaWZOOVdaa1F3VkEzSjRvX0NQNGpidHhKWGtaWVEwMGtJa3FObXJaZzF5YVdSUm5jVUZqSGZ4Zzh5MlhFMnhiSTdmc05rWVVIU2o0LVJB?oc=5
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260522000200315
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-22/10626220.shtml
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640347-rt-hormuz-gridlock-video/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79802
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/21/russia-rehearses-use-of-nuclear-forces-in-drills-with-belarus?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260521-iran-war-squeezes-europe-economy-growth-slumps-prices-surge-energy-shock
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5py64gvwzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201631
- [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9prkzwr8vo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bitumen-crisis-due-to-iran-war-to-hit-road-work/articleshow/131254256.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605220725520ki
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260522054906qzT
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBqWC1XOU9TYW5sSUZuc3BIdHF5UjFrS1pXX1p4YVhTUGpHYnBRbUZGS2xQVUY1eVJaYTktNEJ2Q2dWMUttbjU0dmM4N2R2dDhjSmVKelQ4NkM2MmhIYmpYSHc5Sjg5azI2eGc?oc=5
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-22/10626219.shtml
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPckNRR0ZlV1BmZGFHSDUtMDhpMW80VnI1d2tFMmg0Zk5zUlNNemFBYmkwZDdaM3l0V0xrUnhiZ2JUZlFZTWloM1pPV1pEdjIwRzlhMHhZNF94RGlMRjNfZVFkdkpTdkVsVDdGSXhnVkxXS25mYjNfenpyQXBId3Q0LUM0anlTak9jS3VNcU9IT3QxX2lJU2U5ZkVUUnRMTHV1Z3NtMGM5VHE3cm5yNUo4a1BManrSAboBQVVfeXFMUFJhWl9QYmxMa3pXN1FZUWY0N1lpMUFibG1vZ2g4NUlodloxQktGR1FvU0FmNk5EOGxrWlk4b1NKWmxvcV8zODg5NU1lX3ZqclhtR0U5R1dyS2dBTXRRcmtoQnBORF9zSmR0dG9IWG0tV3paS3VieXV6UmFzSnVoUmlzdHJpMGxDQWJITFQwZHJ6REZoblRKV28wTmlScDF
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-21/10626210.shtml
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/5/21/maths-behind-hormuz-toll-is-paying-iran-for-transit-cheaper-than-blockade?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-21
2026-05-21
进展要点
- 美联储：若通胀持续，可能重启加息周期，关注6月FOMC。
- 美国对伊朗：谈判最终阶段，若未达协议可能升级军事行动。
- 对华科技限制：英伟达排除中国，芯片管制可能进一步收紧。
- 韩国等国家面临霍尔木兹通行协调问题，外交压力增大。
关联路径
美伊谈判 / 风险偏好 / 油价 / 股市 / 美元
霍尔木兹管制 / 石油供应风险 / 油价 / 通胀 / 全球增长
美联储鹰派 / 加息预期 / 美债收益率 / 美元 / 风险资产
中俄峰会+美台接触 / 地缘风险 / 避险资产 / 原油
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / The New York Times / The Hindu / Fed / Global Issues News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/21/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-surrender-to-us-diplomacy-wiser-than-war?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-21/10625478.shtml
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-military-boards-iranian-oil-tanker-suspected-of-breaching-blockade/articleshow/131237565.cms
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260521075924OFd
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/nvidia-reports-85-revenue-jump-but-still-excludes-china-in-outlook
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxORWpQYXVORlppVlY3QlBsMV9YNWo3UC1RM1lNV25wM0oxcTQyeDNkMHpRTXZPRDNGYXZCWkRtbDl3YWxvS0YzeTZ5SkFIX1JXOHN4ZnE1UXJFbXhjbERsOTFDR0hTNEdZaXF3ZmpwRTZfb2hBbllBekRKSWJhNjN5eUlfMFhkMUo4M1JkOENoSk5nNy02clZEdmFDWDJZajVqbEZhOGZNZzcyallNN05QRWVnV1N4b3V6TWV1SWFaTnJTQQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/economy/fed-minutes-interest-rates.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/war-would-spread-beyond-west-asia-say-iran-guards/article71003575.ece
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260520a.htm
- [10] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/20/43089
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026052107543066Q
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605210736262b9
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/20/china-and-russia-unite-after-trumps-beijing-visit?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/knowledge-centre/us/donald-trump-warns-iran-of-nasty-us-action-as-negotiations-enter-final-stages/articleshow/131235009.cms
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOQ0ZFY25hdmpwMElXdkFNMzVTLWo2amc5bXlPTkN6M2diVFVtcVctYzNURlBVdUk1dTZpZGVhZTlDdHhTVEM3OFhnUWJWRU1iT3RVZk9lb1ZLalk1cmF5aFNycl9rR0IzNU1jN2UwN1k5SWdnaG9maGpfU2hRWnRKMlpjQTcwZnBfbjVFTW9mck93RElQaVpoVVVoUHFVWHhaWkZz0gGoAUFVX3lxTE1vOWF5M1ktZzlFTTZRNHkyY0ltUWRSOG5kRXpjd1dFWmUtRE9SczFuVHU0OTVjVkdLRzludlZqUVcwNllTZTdHZ0RYT0J5d1Fkd2w1dlJJVWxES1pzbTlDZ29uMXRybzdlYV9ocUZQLWNtR2Fwc0E4Z1A5M3J0NER3YmVEUlFnbjdJZkJZS0pYYTZkajZjTmtONE5kWDB5dUhWdmRIUzFJSg?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPaS1tT1g1ek9Vd0J6N3hxTXRRajNNaUNjRGRWb2tma2pUeXlVSC1nZ2dMWkc3WlNLLTJmQlg2czB0RUpBUnFJOWtOZGJGVjZhVzVweEJDN29WRmFBMkszOG1Bblk0cGNsMkJXUDJaOXMzUmVCLWZERFlfTy02UDQtRWUzVVdKRGREZGF1QkdvNTg?oc=5
- [17] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/42-aircraft-over-29-billion-what-trumps-iran-operation-cost-the-us-military/articleshow/131223225.cms
- [18] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/over-160-oil-tankers-stuck-in-gulf-as-iran-tightens-grip-on-hormuz
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/iran-says-it-coordinated-crossing-of-26-vessels-out-of-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260521064359ngM
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260521055115XiN
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260521055710iM2
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260521052403wBo
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605210518568Yk
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPUzJqdzZGSXA2c250V2k3RVJVRllBLXBYNHJEUGJaeGdmb1lWVmFpRlBHVEdaNmlVaC13bmhnZ3pMcDVDMTVnZ2RJWVFZQnNYaERRVXlVVWQ2dEQyQjVuQWJKTFI1Z0J0NWl3OXgweFYxRDJGeGE5ZTlyeXByN3hNZndXYmpQUENyQnZUMWQwaFpIT2Q0ZnAzZFdsTDRGemVRNUt0VHZrVE9LSGM?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/at-least-eight-killed-in-israels-air-attacks-on-southern-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/im-in-no-hurry-donald-trump-says-us-will-give-one-shot-to-peace-talks-with-iran-after-threatening-to-attack/articleshow/131228839.cms
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260520235425ydt
2026-05-20
2026-05-20
进展要点
- 美国对伊政策摇摆：特朗普在“打击”与“谈判”间反复，副总统万斯与五角大楼立场不一，政策连贯性存疑。
- 美国国会正推进限制总统战争权力法案，若通过将约束特朗普军事选项，甚至影响中东兵力部署。
- 美联储新主席沃什即将上任，面临通胀高企（战争推动）与收益率曲线陡化挑战，政策路径不确定性大。
- 北约5月22日国防政策负责人会议将讨论美国削减承诺及霍尔木兹海峡应对方案，内部立场分歧可能暴露。
关联路径
美伊谈判破裂 / 美国恢复打击 / 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹 / 油价暴涨 / 全球经济衰退预期 / 风险资产抛售
美债收益率飙升 / 长端利率上升 / 风险溢价重定价 / 股市 / 信用债下跌 / 金融条件收紧
美国削减北约承诺 / 欧洲安全担忧 / 防务开支上升 / 欧元区财政压力 / 欧债利差扩大
俄中战略协作深化 / 去美元化加速 / 双边结算体系替代 / 美元储备份额下降 / 金价长期支撑
来源
China News Service / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News Agency / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/640200-us-nato-troop-commitments/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQM0dIXzRtQmFEWVh6Wkp6a1dmaW9ZT0dtc2ZEVkpfdUZOekJrMkpkWlh3a3lfYnlEVVhkV21xSHJ0UW1lbFJ0bVptS3BfYzlxa0NKc29rM204Sk1mc094b3VvcU9UOFNkNnY0T0lOV3dBV0Y5X2JSNVBpUW1mZVcwRjY4dnpobUpOdzlXbw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-many-more-surprises-if-conflict-resumes?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-20/10624660.shtml
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605200830408wz
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/us-iran-trade-threats-as-tehran-stages-mass-weddings-for-couples-ready-for-sacrifice
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260520000300315
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-us-may-attack-iran-again-but-that-tehran-wants-deal-154216868.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxNWXZfbWNiRkpRS0wxTW9VOE9UdXg0NXF1V0RoQTN5OHp2Y01JeTBUY1pSQWh0UGxNVy03Tno0Tnh2dDVhd3AwTVU2dzJQc19JVWVaQWxBZHFBWHdQb011WUpJdnB6U3FGWXRiZFNfdkU5bDBQWEw1VER0SkpkcF9ITDZzRm5nTnVwejd3NkpPUFA1YlJhSGh3?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/19/putin-meets-xi-why-russia-and-china-need-each-other?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260520075358kcF
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260520075556zwz
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-20/10624644.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1wFBVV95cUxPYWR0eUtXLTJQTW1zdkROclZ0UzNTcFN5UXZ2UnFnSlJqSUtCbW5udWdkZXdCWWlaY3V6VkxsaWcyNEVSbkI3bVo1TDlwaFlVRElpcXN5cUtmWVR0Qk1uNFRkSHlBSHIzeEI5c3B4bEtmaEUyVW9Kd1owV1l0MzBsSGdmdlAzM3hKYks0UVhUUzJyNFlFWWg5aFpBcm91ek5nZXNwdDdiNDlOZjl3WTdsRjlDa2ZUaEJ6RFREMUt2b25Uc0dHWnFqWW5mNlplTWRJcjhnTVU1NA?oc=5
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/senate-iran-war-authorization.html
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/business/bond-market-iran-war-inflation.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026052007274788E
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605200646164Hq
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605200659052fd
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE53eGZ5QVM2QVJiTXFmd2tWdDR4dGs4NExPdTRtRFhXSUdJU21ZWVZBLW9NM2hISndmbWF6bHBEMldmQ1BHel9KLTBrazdIUElONnFNeVM3ZFhFbW8zLTI5U2RpSkM1bWR4QlV3YkpQUzdXTUhqYVlz0gF8QVVfeXFMTkpEa0w1aUN1UFBuNWh3aDVsWnFvVjFxak1iUFdkN21ZYlo0UGJkeUh4b3FFMXd6alFsRnBYMjZlVFhaR1FkSTZ1N2VIUWxPV1laYVlIRFpKc1dQVVk0S3J2bXVLNHM2T3RsdDcxZ2dBTVVJUVQ2c19CMGMxaA?oc=5
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202605200609143fy
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1nSTg2NG41U1hteDhTeWpPVXZMTzg1UUlUc3dRbDlZVzJ2VmUxN3cxMGVNaUhBTGVfS283bFdrb1FHRFFhVi1rWXgwcFlEODJ2cW5BSlBnTTVIc3pzcFFfTWR6ZWJ2Smdvd2V2VEpMTmdIZVhJLThtZg?oc=5
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260520055900A3d
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260520051649dwW
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260520051428irg
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNcWpCMXl5RHNwRFkzYnR2NVIyaDNHZXh3MHdIS3RjTnIzWWRfaFlUY3dzbEE1QXl2amRKUjY3Qy1kWjlUU0Y5bDBKSlFMMUNERkVQNHlra1JNOGNXcUxFdmZreU1pNkhFMWxDek1Hcm9YVWVGaUZjU05HYmFIakRSbVA0TFk1NDJJa1Zn?oc=5
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQRW1nQjNiSUd4bkRfSEJreUZfcTJvZ0pySWlucWpObkhNT1BNdFd5V2lXVkdfc3ZDTXpXc1FlVWlfclh1c19QaWVnMmF6eDNoWWRZMHIwX1g2bm5PYmRVbWhnUGxLUTlDRVlSVHdPc0JrYlRsLUxDajRmc0hhT1hsNkxfU1R2d9IBiwFBVV95cUxON0pZcmV6OFlLQlJUZ1Jkb2FKeFdtSk1RTnZHaGRISnVBSkJZcW00aEtkV2VseEMwLWZ4VUFkZmh1dlFGWVA4cWltb2JpZUJxM2tLcGZBS0Z3NEZfUWd5eUFHN2RocXR1YldpQUgzRVVWMXBhOTJGYXoxT1Ric2pEUC02TkdtdVpvenFR?oc=5
2026-05-19
2026-05-19
进展要点
- G7财长在巴黎开会讨论中东战争对全球经济影响，可能协调财政应对措施。
- 美国对伊朗石油制裁豁免走向不明，伊朗要求解除制裁作为谈判条件。
- 国际能源署协调释放战略石油储备，但商业库存低位制约缓冲空间。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金 / 美元走强
霍尔木兹海峡管控 / 全球石油运输受阻 / 能源价格飙升 / 通胀预期上升
美加 / 中美关系恶化 / 全球风险管理上升 / 权益市场承压
中东冲突 / 航运成本飙升 / 贸易成本传导至消费品价格
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / RT News / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Nikkei Asia / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260519091315xGx
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260518/8bfbdb980c9a492da446372bcd238fa0/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-19/10623872.shtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/18/us-suspends-joint-defence-effort-with-canada-dating-back-to-world-war-ii?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260518-iran-creation-organisme-charge-gerer-detroit-d-ormuz-petrole
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOR2h2bTQ1OHQ2dHhLZGhDeWN6WGFqVUJTOFozOTkxdWIyNEl0QUZEdFd1Sm5iNnpoc0NWZjZuY3pEQ1UxaFMtc3phanVXUmtJWlF2QnE3QTJYempnSlRneEsyQVhUcUNhNFlnRDI3cHhxcG9BZVlmcHpCOVRHVHBSb0F4SHBjUzcyMEtqWm9mSTBoV3M?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640153-trump-iran-major-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260519000800315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/conflict-pushes-freight-charges-for-west-asia-bound-container-cargo-up-10-times/articleshow/131185778.cms
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/japan-kicks-into-high-gear-steering-iran-war-oil-shock-response
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russian-nuclear-head-situation-ukraines-202449317.html
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/us/politics/trump-iran-strikes.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260518-le-g7-finances-veut-pr%C3%A9server-l-%C3%A9conomie-des-effets-de-la-guerre-au-moyen-orient
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605190829530g4
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260519075241GMc
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-19/10623855.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-19/10623853.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPUHY2WnRUSktfZlBnbTB4R0ZfcWMtSkpFcFZPNk9rRHlTQVZNT1A0TzNUMWFCdm01eUlMbi05Rzc2ZjBoYkVVV2FzVWVpbHd5YjRFSDhRQnlxb25QTThONktyT0JkbFROWWoxSEM4Wk85RU04c3RBQ3g3VEpOTklTS1cwOWlqd0prdW9zdndtd3I3NnY3QlRvV3VkMGZVVUVVME1fLXRRMmh0VWwzUlRKanQ0MNIBuAFBVV95cUxPZmltNEdtaVRpejB0ZW9HakJlbUhUd1NmN2kwMXRDekNqVGVzSExic08yel9PckQ5bGM2R1ZsOG1mdmJpTmNGbFNIOUl4OFRWUDZiWDFkREQxaUQ5R0VQRTZjU29wTlZqd21aMTB6cDJjQTBuU0lKam1kTWoyLWZfRGNZWTczcFNsUkJyV2l0UkQtMElpcHR4SUFhSXZaNkZ
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/640152-iran-nuclear-stockpile-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQY1lRcmJNWlBDcFFrRXRMR2xSUVZpQkdZV1R3NURUb3lVdjlDM2ZYQ0hVSFJjemk0TE1wNVdJaUNLX3RkQ3ZTREIxTTY2c2I2b3NNSElKSnRRTzdVa2h5Q25tUVN2dXZUNFA1UFRGcF9MZ2VPOFdnRG1MTHJrZUo1QnB3R3F1VE5rcVBEZ1c4WldSVDNXYXlBMHVKeU96emk1LWpUeHNTRXI?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/18/trump-pauses-possible-iran-strike-after-gulf-intervention?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260518-iran-announces-new-body-to-manage-strait-of-hormuz-as-peace-talks-stall
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/18/trump-delays-scheduled-attack-on-iran-crediting-serious-negotiations?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-18
2026-05-18
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策：特朗普坚持极限施压，谈判窗口收窄，可能升级为全面战争。
- 以色列安全内阁可能授权对伊朗先发制人打击。
- 中美关系：双边贸易协议落地，元首互访机制恢复，短期关系稳定。
- 美国可能要求中国减少进口伊朗原油作为贸易协议附加条件。
关联路径
美伊对抗升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 油价暴涨 / 全球通胀风险 / 央行政策收紧预期
中东冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入美元 / 黄金 / 新兴市场资金流出
中美关系缓和 / 贸易协议执行 / 全球供应链恢复 / 风险偏好回升
伊朗导弹库存充足 / 冲突长期化 / 地缘风险溢价持续
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Google News - World / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / China Government English News / Der Spiegel International / Ukrinform / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260518-trump-warns-iran-peace-deal
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260517/6f805f5dc9f8456d97ec34ce8a9e91c7/c.html
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260518085340jvh
- [4] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/dangerous-escalation-india-expresses-concern-after-iranian-strikes-target-uae-nuclear-facility/articleshow/131163786.cms
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-18/10623012.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNenBpWTRtUml3dFhzQ2VHcFgyVUVSMnB0THMyQ0NQMHZ5VmZ4b1dJZkVybE91bUlnMjlYU0J3UW5YeGZhQTFEemFndU9MX281S1doUmpSWEE1X0FtVFFYNG9LSXpRR3hDejBHbklSM0tGS3hJMlBwYjJMQlNhbm9ZRmhPR1diUWFnTUhSUGhFa21NdDZIYklqY3pDV1d4NnJWckJrTlBCY2ljRnVYYTlmTnBuQTVEMjVi?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640106-eu-natural-gas-stockpile/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-trump-warns-iran-time-is-ticking-on-deal/live-77179563?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/17/wont-be-anything-left-trump-issues-threat-to-iran-amid-stalled-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://english.www.gov.cn/news
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/donald-trump-droht-iran-erneut-mit-zerstoerung-a-ba5618b5-ab3f-44e2-b548-9a9b93ef227f
- [12] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4124365-cuba-acquires-300-attack-drones-from-russia-and-iran-and-discusses-potential-attacks-on-us-axios.html
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260518083124NV8
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260518082234r6K
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-18/10623008.shtml
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260517-drone-strike-sparks-a-fire-on-the-edge-of-uae-nuclear-facility
- [17] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260517-les-emirats-d%C3%A9noncent-une-agression-inacceptable-apr%C3%A8s-une-frappe-de-drone-sur-un-site-nucl%C3%A9aire
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTFBRbU14clM0UlJtWGkxcnpwcHB4NU1idTE4VFZkdW41akdidWZEN1N5SDNPYU5BWEl3M0NZcGE4T2ZsZVhIVEhNWDdqSGtvRHdKMktRZnJiYl81UjZnWDZjZmtSOTM2NFlWSFp5MEtjTFRNanc1?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/17/israel-kills-five-in-lebanon-after-ceasefire-with-hezbollah-extended?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/there-wont-be-anything-left-trump-says-clock-is-ticking-for-iran-as-nuclear-talks-stall/articleshow/131161674.cms
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQN0Q3c3h1X0QwTW12M19VTDR4dWRlUDMzTDROSnl3YmRrMGczaHBORmRUQ09qRzBBckJiQXBSMVRXZ3p2SUhXdVJJdlZJZnpoQXA4RnRXWUJZVXMzaWhTYm9xY25leUFiczIwanZpa19RRmtHdnF0cUlycW5fUDctUHVFanExcU9rYXpWVFVLSV8xRDBLV1AtOFBXcncxMFRlcTRyM1I5NVg1S3lqUDdvWENQbw?oc=5
2026-05-17
2026-05-17
进展要点
- 美国对俄石油制裁全面恢复，后续可能加大执行力度。
- 中美关税谈判前景不明，双方各执一词，需关注后续公报。
- 伊朗即将公布霍尔木兹海峡机制，或包括收费与定向通行限制。
- 美国对台军售可能成为中美谈判筹码，交付存在变数。
关联路径
伊朗海峡收费 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价暴涨 / 全球通胀预期回升
台湾独立言论 / 中美对峙升级 / 地缘风险溢价 / 新兴市场资本外流
俄油制裁恢复 / 供应收紧 / 能源价格上行 / 欧洲经济压力
多线冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金美元 / 权益债券波动
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/17/iran-war-live-tehran-eyes-tolls-in-hormuz-trump-warns-of-very-bad-time?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/05/16/taiwan-revendique-son-independance-apres-une-mise-en-garde-de-donald-trump_6689757_3210.html
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/economy/china-tariffs-trump-summit.html
- [4] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-zu-waffenverkauf-an-taiwan-gutes-druckmittel-fuer-usa-50646913
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260517081519Kel
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Sanktionen-gegen-russisches-Oel-greifen-wieder-id30828365.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxOaTducmtkWk5TSUMzWHdKTmNsRkU3RnFDanVwaVUzTWVXY1d6YVhLYmpURjQ4MmZlVFJFTTRveEFvVnhlYUtVOFlCYVJDWFozX0VfTGtZSWlKanAwVU5uWUwzUXVOUXJZRGVza2hHdDF3VE5uT09KM0stcmFxWHhpbE5jOElXcUI2WjZOcndSUl9WdHVxMWF6YllFZF9JYlZyVUVjRjJXYWVwQlJvTWJYRFdJT2l4N0s3bV9lWTF0S2JEakJhWjJrc0QwMnpaWXVyanc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/israel-angriffe-libanon-sueden
- [9] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/16/uss-ford-returns-home-after-11-month-deployment-supporting-iran-war-and-maduros-capture
- [10] https://sol.iol.pt/opiniao/noticias/marco-serronha-a-guerra-do-golfo-de-2026-algumas-observacoes-estrategicas-e-geopoliticas-tempos-de-preocupacao-e-algumas-muitas-ilusoes-parte-1/20260516/6a0760770cf2d0ed34b846a1
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260516-mort-chef-branche-arm%C3%A9e-hamas-tu%C3%A9-par-frappe-isra%C3%A9lienne-ezzedine-al-haddad
- [12] https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-war-vote-congress-house-of-representatives-senate-usa-politics-news/a816e23a-d2e8-479d-8bf0-a4076caf9588
- [13] https://www.ertnews.gr/eidiseis/diethni/live-to-iran-tha-perasei-poly-dyskola-an-den-yparksei-symfonia-proeidopoiei-o-tramp
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2132w81jqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/755676/sad-nisu-produzile-uredbu-o-izuzecu-za-kupovinu-ruske-nafte
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/16/6a086573e4d4d885558b4580.html
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/k-biz/news
- [18] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260515000200880
- [19] https://www.la-croix.com/international/sommet-a-pekin-donald-trump-met-en-garde-taiwan-contre-toute-proclamation-d-independance-20260515
- [20] https://www.latribune.fr/article/transports/1686023441399214/liran-fait-etat-de-discussions-avec-des-pays-europeens-pour-franchir-le-detroit-dormuz
- [21] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/taiwan/4223757-20260516-chine-taiwan-affirme-etre-nation-independante-subordonnee-malgre-critiques-trump?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/16/taiwan-says-it-is-an-independent-nation-after-trump-arms-sale-remarks?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-apr%C3%A8s-la-mise-en-garde-de-trump-ta%C3%AFwan-rappelle-washington-%C3%A0-son-engagement-sur-les-ventes-d-armes
- [24] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-le-chef-de-la-branche-arm%C3%A9e-du-hamas-tu%C3%A9-%C3%A0-gaza
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/in-response-to-trump-taiwan-says-it-is-sovereign-and-independent?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE82V2RmaV9VT005Qk15ZWVIZ25yVmRHUXVFWS0weUVoSHZJc2pfQjZwT1N0R283VzU2SjZKY2pvNExRVmNxT3R3ZWtXcGxzMW1MQ2FtbFczdEQ4UWQyQnRKaXB6a25RWTR2M3hTaV94Y1Y?oc=5
- [27] https://www.la-croix.com/international/direct-guerre-iran-israel-usa-jour-78-moyen-orient-bilan-resume-aujourdhui-20260516
- [28] https://sol.iol.pt/internacional/noticias/medio-oriente-estreito-de-ormuz-sob-tensao-enquanto-paises-europeus-tentam-negociar-com-o-irao/20260516/6a08a0bc0cf27f6588a6a9d7
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
进展要点
- 美国对台政策可能转向战略模糊，具体调整需观察后续声明。
- 特朗普返美后将决定是否恢复对伊朗军事打击，停火谈判前景黯淡。
- 美国可能解除或维持对中国企业购买伊朗石油的制裁，影响全球油市。
- 欧洲经济受伊朗战争冲击，德国二季度增长预期减半。
关联路径
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260516083028hzn
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-16/10622124.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-haddad-hamas.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5HRjZxVTlZdTJNaGpKMWtMREpUeUtlWmVyYmQ4d0pEREdJN3pOdjdMZmJoT29SdWc2ZmowekRlVDlmaGpfRWlHZFdkc1hkX3BjYXBnelZn?oc=5
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260515-trump-xi-carry-on-westminster-the-french-pivot
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-triggered-challenges-across-the-world-uk-statement-at-the-un-economic-and-social-council
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640055-xi-trump-results-summit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-made-no-commitment-141341009.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/5/15/is-the-us-dialling-down-its-support-for-taiwan?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/death-toll-in-attack-on-kyiv-apartment-building-rises-may-15-2026/article70984671.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-iran-war-set-to-halve-growth-in-second-quarter/live-77168830?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515009551315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/will-make-decision-on-lifting-sanctions-on-chinese-firms-buying-iran-oil-trump/article70984451.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/xi-to-visit-us-on-september-24-at-trumps-invitation-china-says/articleshow/131121278.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605160830433MA
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBzRmtDckNTcWFyTER5RmVXWUd4TFdXLVBLLU00NnYyZFByNTgwcGVCcjFfS2ZSRDBOR2tpeFBpM2ljaUlTdGtNNnMzRE4xSHFzdjBrbGgtTDZKTzFuOWRfaEpkYnkzdXRwZjFKRy1ZMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNTGNXUWxwbG5FZ0kzQkdWTE9mQlNIaG1EckxUOVFfeVhkbkhXR09HdFFDNU9FTlNtT194emVtWUhQWTB4MVJMQ1RGcXRVTFRKRFNZZmtJTjFlQnBQZnFUR3VPZmhqdTRyanJQYnRweDYwUk1laHVCbXRnUjl0UUlqbmM5UzEtYkpwWTlJZFk5Y0ExQS15V0ZzUUdaMXZsYlBnc3Jrbkx5bEVYTWFzSVp2bWtnOVZZQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260515-chine-apr%C3%A8s-rencontre-avec-xi-trump-met-en-garde-ta%C3%AFwan-contre-toute-proclamation-ind%C3%A9pendance
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/zelenskyy-vows-response-after-russian-strike-kills-24-in-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/russia-pounds-kyiv-as-its-war-machine-grinds-to-a-near-standstill?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/asia/trump-china-arms-sales.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/europe/trump-xi-china-summit.html
2026-05-15
2026-05-15
进展要点
- 美联储主席更替后，关注沃什对通胀与就业的权衡，以及是否面临特朗普降息压力。
- 美中贸易谈判停滞，短期内关税政策维持现状，但双方可能转向技术领域限制。
- 霍尔木兹海峡多国军事任务可能演变为长期化，增加区域对峙风险。
- 美国对伊朗政策：中方承诺的约束力有限，军事选项仍存。
关联路径
伊朗霍尔木兹封锁风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难 / 避险
特习峰会无贸易协议 / 风险情绪下行 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场承压
台湾冲突警告 / 地缘溢价 / 半导体供应链中断风险 / 科技股抛售
美联储换帅 / 货币政策路径不确定性 / 利率波动 / 套利交易平仓
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/15/iran-war-live-trumps-visit-to-china-shadowed-by-conflict-with-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-permits-30-vessels-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-overnight-lebanon-strikes-israel-top-developments/articleshow/131105399.cms
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515000800315
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260514-kevin-warsh-confirm%C3%A9-%C3%A0-la-t%C3%AAte-de-la-fed
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypj01189lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-xi-promises-not-to-give-iran-arms-trump-says
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPVXJSWmJiMV9CLUM2SURhbHFRVm1DeVE4NjBCY0E5azNhSDNSZXh6RnJORFVNbWpSOUdhdlhVSGNqM0s4a3F6SGFWWkR2aDZRd0ozTXBYYzZYODhVWnNyRGo0c09YTE81OVpUNHQ4cHFNNUFSTkV1ZmJlaGh2MnE3TzZwWlFvX3A1dndjVWNCMEd2YU9lSmV4eTlsSDFIYTcwUm8xOVl2VE9zRTNNTE02RkVzTmlmUlM3bVNQQUlubGFaa0RJc2c?oc=5
- [8] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-the-multinational-military-mission-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-12-may-2026
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/iran-strait-hormuz-china-ships.html
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/as--china-trump-000017487.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260514-trump-xi-d-%C3%A9gal-%C3%A0-%C3%A9gal
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/during-trumps-china-visit-anthropic-just-reminded-america-why-it-should-not-sell-top-end-nvidia-chips-to-china-since-most-/articleshow/131102724.cms
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-tests-post-intervention-low-as-iran-war-us-rate-uncertainty-lift-dollar
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/5/14/aje-onl-chn_trumpvisit2026_av_v2-140526?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-xi-offered-help-to-open-hormuz-vowed-not-to-arm-iran
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPOEZTX2ZkbVUwMGszck1IeUFkSE9VMmh3RXBoRzdjeG9HSTYwdGZidWYyQVlYTDJsTWdXd0xfLTNSdFVOekdwZW5ZZmdBWmlRWkJINTM5MjdUZ19SOGhMSUxHWVRESC1taUVqWDFhZlBnbk1SN0J6aF9UbEJydVVTM3R3bFplS1Nvc0sxMlBvMjQ?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/14/israels-ben-gvir-storms-al-aqsa-during-jerusalem-day-march?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-says-xi-vowed-not-to-arm-iran-offered-help-to-open-hormuz/articleshow/131098611.cms
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPZ3F4RDFfMWRrb1RYQUZiNjRhSk9DZXc3MkFKSjRlck9XamJDYnZFREtrLWdtd21ReW9sckNvWThielVnYnAwbG5HUDlIRDNVRnJWT09zTHg2WDVLQTJxekowMWFSdEhvblluMHdub05CUzkzQnBROTZkZDMxVV9raHgzMWNqRjFCbEhiSC1zSDdkb0paN1paZTV0OFfSAaIBQVVfeXFMUFZ1ZEpKM19xclBhQjVTSmlJVlAyUG14c1ZrY3dVOXlFWWtRYkdxX3BGQlhsUjI0N1pDZUE1QnRGeE43WUthQWkzdExSNkVUakd1dUJ6dndMSGdVV2V3LTBRckx3WERFSHVmbVBGNF90dGE0WWVhU2FrTjdKX0M2S2Q1ZTE0UEVneklPWWZjbUU0eEFvdGNjLTcyZ0NBeWczZzVB?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/china-us-sanctions-ai-cybersecurity.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-uae-iran-attacks.html
2026-05-14
2026-05-14
进展要点
- 美联储沃什任期不确定性，市场关注其首次政策声明及加息路径信号。
- 美国通胀回升可能迫使美联储维持鹰派立场，加息预期升温。
- 中美峰会若达成贸易协议，可能推动部分关税削减，但全面和解仍难。
- 印度提高贵金属进口关税旨在减少贸易逆差及抑制进口需求。
关联路径
美联储主席变更 / 政策不确定性 / 美元 / 美债波动 / 全球资产重定价
中美峰会结果 / 贸易前景 / 风险偏好 / 股市 / 商品
中东冲突升级 / 石油供给风险 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策约束
印度提高黄金关税 / 全球实物黄金需求下降 / 金价承压
来源
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260513-senate-confirms-trump-pick-kevin-warsh-as-federal-reserve-chair
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-ally-kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-next-us-federal-reserve-chair-after-tight-senate-vote/articleshow/131076625.cms
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-confirmed.html
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-presidents-set-to-kick-off-crucial-meeting
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260514000900315
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639955-pentagon-revises-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2gFBVV95cUxPWkJfX2lCWUg1YjR3aktOUUU4ajlIa0xDbGxDMWlJbHh0ZzZjLW9RZUJMcXdNRFlTbEUxZVVWWjNHRHJxNkNFVEhPQmFTeFI3S2QzN3BGdTlPYWkwWW1ZWURuRjg5d2RQTEx0aDY5RG05OGdqTXNqV3ZEZkY1eklEbHJlb2pYTUkxdXp1aDdHQTNub2RBejU1UzF3SUhGSWlqUWR3TkEtWjZaM25vbVd2OWREM0NTeXh3OWlDZ291bWloSWpFN2ExTnRGZWxHZVczV2lMN2pLZW9sQQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8p71p4nezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-holds-decline-jump-us-060857543.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/netanyahu-visited-uae-in-secret-during-us-israel-war-on-iran-office-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-hikes-duty-on-gold-silver-from-6-to-15-in-bid-to-lower-demand/articleshow/131079515.cms
- [12] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260513-%C3%A9tats-unis-s%C3%A9nat-valide-nomination-kevin-warsh-t%C3%AAte-fed-reserve-federale-trump
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/asia/xi-trump-china-us-taiwan-iran.html
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/trade-tech-and-rare-earths-to-dominate-trump-s-china-trip
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/briefing/trump-china-meeting-fed-chair.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/639954-netanyahu-secret-uae-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/639942-saudi-covert-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/13/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-new-us-federal-reserve-chair-amid-controversy?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPZHBka0lybnhwRXkzY1pwOWpFSnN5Njd0RnFpNlg0ZlRYN1lqY3FFZ1dFOXJQUTBKczZITllGdU1TU01iMGNIWnNfYXVBeFVNZnVlaE02Wkd6T2lFTUo2VXBzeDBZVVAxNVZKUC1OZG9LUFVaQmMyR1dhaTMxYi1KZ0owc3JpNkhXYkUyY2xQaUcyNmI5YlU4U3FCVU9aNFk5SzJueFAwd3VNU0xOTmtXWHlNNTdxUW0wMGFtRnBaMmRTc0haakpTd25B?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/trump-xi-summit-chinas-help-in-iran-may-require-us-concessions?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-xi-set-to-talk-trade-after-30-drop-during-tariff-war
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPLXI4dThVYmpObHQwS1B6bk9vNmFEX0dxbldUbWNqYUhxSUJzaTV5LTFvcFJGR1JuUm13dWJUZE0tZHVZOXY4VkMzUjZCNFA4OWx2UERXeldBNXNoWUktWUFLOUdpMzhja3JOZ0hhbVoyTzB0ZmZMQlV3MXBUc1UyUWJSdXN2UlNmRDZDMQ?oc=5
2026-05-13
2026-05-13
进展要点
- 美联储：沃什即将接任主席，市场预期其将坚持鹰派立场，6月议息会议加息概率上升
- 贸易政策：10%全球关税暂时维持，但法律挑战未消，特朗普可能利用访华争取贸易让步
- 财政政策：伊朗战争成本持续累积，国会面临追加拨款压力，可能推升美债供给
- 制裁政策：俄核反应器事件或促使美国加强对俄朝制裁执行
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 通胀上升 / 央行收紧预期 / 风险资产下跌
美伊停火破裂 / 军事升级 / 油价飙升 / 全球衰退担忧 / 避险资产流入
中美峰会结果 / 贸易政策预期 / 风险情绪波动 / 美元 / 新兴市场货币双向波动
俄罗斯核威慑 / 欧洲安全紧张 / 资金流向避险资产 / 黄金 / 美债受益
来源
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.iris-france.org/les-chaines-dapprovisionnement-petrolieres-asiatiques-perturbees-par-le-blocus-du-detroit-dormuz-perspectives-pour-linde-le-japon-et-la-coree-du-sud
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c202pgxx89lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-faces-rising-costs-with-iran-war-driving-energy-prices-inflation-higher?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260513/c04811ca4c6a4d49abe7cdffeca2c363/c.html
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/639918-turning-point-in-post-cold-war-order/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-berufungsgericht-laesst-donald-trumps-zehn-prozent-zoll-vorerst-bestehen-a-0e854705-6afa-4fbb-9f55-dfb8f923ef7f
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260512-iran-us-peace-plan-middle-east-truce-failure
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/briefing/iran-war-costs-inflation.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOVHIyMlF1Rk1fUk9rY3JiNVh0LUVBUlhlX0dtQk5OSjUwcVFPVXJUbWdSRkpwa25iZ1lRSVcxbFNraGM2RWFsdXJJVEhHeTBPU21WckJFOFdSWHVMZ21pdS1Sc1NiWHZ5TXExWnN2Vy16eUVwcUNsdnZpWUtveUg4eVBrMnNBcjg3QU5sbHY1b2tza21pQkg0?oc=5
- [10] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/iran-kharg-island-oil-shipments-174555890.html
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-china-visit-xi-jinping-meeting-us-china-trade-negotiations/article70971552.ece
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260512011352315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-cpi-climbs-38-in-april-as-oil-prices-and-energy-costs-fuel-inflation/article70971393.ece
- [14] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79724
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/7dd5a996fb1a4b938d278e287586e4c7/c.html
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/aa49121bccfb49a08819de9df26fb8d6/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/13/iran-war-live-trump-travels-to-china-as-conflict-with-tehran-looms-large?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-court-pauses-decision-blocking-trumps-10-percent-global-tariff?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260512-iran-tensions-commerciales-ta%C3%AFwan-donald-trump-chine-pour-visite-majeure
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260512-japanese-crisp-bags-turn-black-and-white-due-to-iran-war
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/russland-testet-sarmat-interkontinentalrakete-laut-wladimir-putin-erfolgreich-a-129038fc-f885-400f-a2c4-d08eb689345d
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/trump-xi-summit.html
- [23] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-war-cost-hegseth-congress.html
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/639893-us-iran-could-renew-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObTF3M0FrTkx0dDl4bjA2QzFvZUNQV2JXdWVBNWduSG1nTmVMR2pPdE9wN2F3WnVWaTJtZzd4Nzg1ODN3RmZPSzhjaktQalhUY0l1S2tNSVdlVk5NRzh3M0pvT3Rjbnk3V0h1ZTFYbTdZaHkzakUzVHZfNFkyQWxmTnNSSjZLOHVSYmpCdXRMWGs2eFdTZE5PMmpWX0VsTDN4M0N2ZHZoUkxWd0dPOHc?oc=5
2026-05-12
2026-05-12
进展要点
- 特朗普可能削减联邦燃油税以应对国内油价压力
- 美国司法部请求维持10%全球关税，上诉期间贸易不确定性持续
- 美联储面临能源冲击带来的通胀压力，降息预期推迟
- 欧洲央行或因地缘风险维持紧缩立场
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应骤降 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
中美会晤结果 / 贸易政策走向 / 企业信心与汇率波动
美伊停火破裂 / 中东全面战争 / 避险资金涌入黄金 / 美元
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国能源安全风险 / 人民币贬值压力
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044249qt7
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260511/2f185f2c68764459ad6402eda8c3e354/c.html
- [3] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/12/6a01a4fefdddff9f478b4577.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-ceasefire-on-life-support/live-77126070?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gas-prices-iran-war-midwest-ohio-trump-b2974499.html
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/usa-china-iran-sanktionen-scott-bessent
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/iran-responds-to-us-peace-proposal-to-end-the-war-state-media-says-164241820.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-100.html
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429549
- [10] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-gov-t-asks-court-to-keep-trump-s-10-global-tariffs-in-place-during-appeal/3934366
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260511-xi-jinping-faiseur-de-paix-en-iran
- [12] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-11/trump-el-alto-el-fuego-con-iran-esta-agonizando.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV3Zja29WajNJeTJvT3FaSlZ6ZDZwcXkwakZMZTRHTVg3dEI4WU82UHhOWTkxNzAzc2puQ0dJZEl5XzJfUXdRWlFlai1vanEwUFYzQkdPRmNlUnZXLXBPRFFKUmJRM3dJMVJaZjl4RWk1VzQ1dlRDSXVyOS13ZUxXSUhwZWpaejQzTDlBbGgyOU1uTGd3UlFpMDN3?oc=5
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-congress-iran-petrol-prices-b1281950.html
- [15] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/11/43001
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/11/trump-says-he-will-discuss-arms-sales-to-taiwan-in-meeting-with-chinas-xi?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-sanctions-12-firms-individuals-over-alleged-role-in-iranian-oil-trade/3934363
- [18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-to-travel-to-china-with-17-major-ceos-including-musk-and-cook-white-house/3934290
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-reveals-location-nuclear-armed-171703119.html
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044730SbY
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512042140mfe
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxOdkoyb2dvdHlJdmpIaDc3d0N2U1kxandSSmxCN3c5eWs0UHk1Q3F4YVpLNDhLR1ZJb2s1UG1mS1BFcXJWQmZBSU5WRFRKMlV0ek1qUGt2MDlnOGRrX0lwdW94UjEycHFyMGs3VlVCVElpdHlLU3FWSmh5V09mQkhLZVRtMktEejdSdzk4c0I2MTcyREpCcnJNOXVudUZDREw0TUJmUjFBbE1EYnFMYTVhMTBrOEJKT3ZtOFlxU1lmME5vTUFGVjcwZldZM3BSMDEyNjNpRER1QlFTVDlubUtVSmNxUXhjREFoTUJxWmhhdFE1YzBGRV9zdHY2bEdpZnktVXoyeGxWN2xKSjQwb3hsZDFWMmlwYXVwUjZN?oc=5
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260511-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-exige-la-fin-de-la-guerre-et-le-d%C3%A9gel-des-avoirs-une-r%C3%A9ponse-inacceptable-pour-trump
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE1CR1Nfc2JxRHM4N0NjWVViWXh2czVFblA1akE3dFhjUmctQVlBLUpwSW1KUF9ETUpJV2tlRW4wcDM3RW1VYURWQ2pKWQ?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/11/trump-says-ceasefire-is-on-life-support-after-rejecting-irans-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-new-york-israel-consumers-wall-street-b2974516.html
- [27] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/11/6a02182721efa03c0b8b4577.html
2026-05-11
2026-05-11
进展要点
- 美国联邦政府因现金流恶化被迫增发国债，债市压力或倒逼财政部调整发债节奏
- BIS警告财政政策回应伊朗战争风险可能加剧通胀，各国央行面临两难
- 特朗普访华期间将与习近平讨论伊朗问题，可能施压中国减少进口伊朗石油
- 英国受伊朗战争拖累预计2026年失业16.3万人，欧洲经济衰退风险上升
关联路径
美军封锁伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡梗阻 / 石油供应中断担忧 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期升温
特朗普拒绝伊朗停火 / 避险情绪高涨 / 资金涌入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产抛售
美国增发国债 / 债券供给冲击 / 收益率上行 / 科技股估值承压 / 股市下跌
伊朗战争 / 英国经济衰退信号 / 全球增长担忧 / 风险偏好恶化
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/3960d5d503f7403dae5c143aeff01f80/c.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201355
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618814.shtml
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-government-must-issue-more-223745145.html
- [5] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/10/nx-s1-5817605/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-proposal
- [6] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/britain-job-losses-iran-war-economy-crisis-b2973830.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-05/11/iran-antwortet-auf-us-vorschlag-trump-voellig-inakzeptabel
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/639845-trump-iran-totally-unacceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429515
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/trump-to-discuss-iran-with-xi-jinping-during-china-visit-officials?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-rejects-proposal-to-end-conflict/live-77102104?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051808Mzs
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/fiscal-policy-response-to-iran-war-risks-worsening-inflation-bis-chief
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPS2F2bWQ1UlBLTExBNjRzTEZLN1Jtak40T2hSUmJaaHd0dG9BbEhwNnJLbGptN05Sem5SLVBvbktvZTFfYWotQjZ0WXl3MXcwOU5pZXI2TFZyYXQwdVBaWktHbWt4MktOQ3ZWblc3blItcFlPM1ZNaGdDbk1NT0J2V1huSFhvd3JrTjBqYzRmRFpOYmRlc0RhcnRXMlhmUdIBowFBVV95cUxNbUxZRDk5d2JGaHZwbFlBdTVCWWs2TDcyM3h6b0dKb1hYNTlUUk1QME5sNjl1VFpBbDNUUzdZXzdwVlFJVmZoYjRyaVlvaktVcUFRZTdsQmc3LXFaZXk1MUVPNFBzMGNsWE1XOHdnb2MyWkpHNnRSRnNoTlU0b25IS1Q5Y3EtSWNCZl9sZ2dWSzcxaHJLWTd1NlIyNzFMSlJXa29v?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/war-with-iran-not-over-says-israeli-prime-minister/3933285
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/c636cfac40044e89be902f2b154cf33a/c.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/b44050ab14924c3fa89df06b58ee15c0/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618801.shtml
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/us-awaits-iranian-response-proposal-125003898.html
- [20] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/donald-trump-usa-iran-krieg-antwort-frieden-verhandlungen
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/639844-trump-vows-iran-enriched-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260511051652Xbq
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051343oue
2026-05-10
2026-05-10
进展要点
- 美国等待伊朗对和平提议的回应，若拒绝可能进一步升级军事行动
- 特朗普-习近平北京峰会焦点或包括伊朗、贸易和制裁问题
- 美国国际贸易法院驳回10%全球关税，政府可能上诉或立法替代
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油 / 避险资产 / 全球股市
美国制裁中国公司 / 中美关系紧张 / 贸易协议风险 / 风险偏好
俄乌停火希望 / 风险偏好短暂回升 / 若落空则避险
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东不稳定 / 石油风险溢价
来源
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/g-s1-121061/iran-war-updates
- [2] https://www.tempo.co/internasional/selat-hormuz-memanas-as-iran-saling-serang-lagi-2134463
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/10/iran-war-live-irgc-warns-us-against-attacks-on-ships-israel-bombs-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/u-s-iran-exchange-strikes-as-trump-says-ceasefire-holds-263035973659
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/putin-zaiavyv-shcho-viina-rf-proty-ukrainy-dobihaie-kintsia
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPOFBRV2l2TGJ6d1FsY2doampXNEJyODZFZmp6VDBVNWVYUHdoRDhUMC0ydDBuaU9oZGpITWFUNjZ1TVlUNWQybV85TDlxNXl4aVlwZVViZmdRVV9wNzB2NkhPUUdpdjMxTnVXT01KWmRHZFJtNkY3d2dTMl8zdWdXb0M0X2l2c1R4VDdNeFB3?oc=5
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-he-thinks-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end/a-77106772?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-assured-netanyahu-of-no-compromise-on-iran-uranium-issue-israeli-media/3932758
- [9] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/09/state-escalates-trade-row-with-china-over-iran-war-ahead-of-trump-xi-summit-00913421?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [10] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79718
- [11] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260508000500880
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/putin-says-ukraine-war-likely-to-end-soon-despite-ukrainian-battlefield-gains-13542111
- [13] https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica-estera/ucraina-putin-guerra-volge-termine-pronti-dialogo-ue-2662158.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/wladimir-putin-krieg-ukraine-pressekonferenz-ende-wolodymyr-selenskyj
- [15] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/09/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-assure-que-le-conflit-touche-a-sa-fin-kiev-et-moscou-s-accusent-de-violer-le-cessez-le-feu_6684995_3210.html
- [16] https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/heftige-iran-drohung-hormus-schliessung-fuer-immer-69ff7fcbcd4a28c4700221b3
- [17] https://geopoliticalfutures.com/what-the-uaes-opec-exit-means-for-the-global-energy-market
- [18] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-forces-strike-iran-oil-tankers-while-waiting-tehran-peace-proposal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQVThGa0pUTkZBT2YzS3I2U29RT1MwNGdCNmdUSXdLY19ObVVSVVNkNmxWZ1k2RjNzQ09PYkhwVEl6dmlmQlpxcTVMX21WYktZdHNNUE04TTBTOUMzZjZWRHJkcC1pVUEtR0tEaUVaODVTc0JTMGV0MlVZSl9YSjF6NGFBLUFMYk5Udm5IUDdLbEE4M3pkeW1aRldLT25Xei1MTmZRWkl6TG1SQjJKVzg4YzB3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-and-iran-exchange-fire-as-trump-says-ceasefire-still-holds-263025733567
- [21] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5814955/rep-adam-smith-d-wash-on-the-latest-round-of-strikes-between-the-u-s-and-iran
- [22] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5815016/u-s-and-iran-trade-fire-amid-month-old-ceasefire
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/9/for-the-first-time-putin-says-hes-open-to-meeting-zelensky-outside-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-09
2026-05-09
进展要点
- 美联储面临就业稳健但通胀风险上升的两难，6月或维持利率不变
- 白宫可能加大伊朗制裁，但战争扩大风险限制行动空间
- 俄乌停火为外交窗口，但实质性进展有限，后续关注换俘执行
- 德国将被迫加强防务自主，可能增加国防开支并调整对美关系
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 全球通胀 / 央行政策收紧预期
俄乌停火 / 避险情绪缓和 / 风险资产短暂反弹
美国就业超预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场压力
美德关系恶化 / 北约不确定性 / 欧洲避险资金流入美元 / 黄金
来源
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260509/us-fires-on-2-more-iranian-tankers-as-tensions-rise-in-strait-of-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/8/pentagon-releases-video-of-strikes-on-iranian-oil-tankers?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617849.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQVWVDc01rQW5teU9vRkZ6eGY5TkkwT2tWekM0VVBrRjFHMVZjNGhDRUI3ZEhqdy1MamR2QVhWODlMTHNuQUhVbkViWUpIdmcySEJlcU9WdVpvU1VJSmRabXBhckhnUHJyb29jMXZHTkRoUF9mUjJXZVdMMFpFM0k2bmRENGc5ZzNFNTN1SGhlVFdQYjFvdldIQkk5S1VnTGlzQUhrMV9abw?oc=5
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ceo-maersk-ships-14-everything-170854545.html
- [7] https://news.sky.com/story/three-day-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-announced-13541685
- [8] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8481206/trump-umumkan-rusia-dan-ukraina-sepakat-gencatan-senjata-3-hari
- [9] https://metro.co.uk/2026/05/08/donald-trump-announces-three-day-ceasefire-russia-ukraine-28292148
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/639696-trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4121333-trump-says-threeday-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-agreed.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-announces-3-day-ceasefire-between-ukraine-and-russia/live-77091251?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/ukraine-krieg/artikel/ukraine-krieg-trump-verkuendet-waffenruhe-so-lange-ist-geplant-48342649
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86dp85g59xo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/9/iran-war-live-tehrans-reply-to-us-deal-expected-amid-clashes-in-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617843.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617837.shtml
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/la-guerra-se-asoma-a-un-nuevo-vencimiento-pendiente-del-acuerdo-entre-estados-unidos-e-iran.html
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-08/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE0zQmxqdHQ0cTdBOHJtcEx1ajdXR0RhRkthS0tvOS0wM2IwMzUtdk1vUVB4VFBabXNySUdaX19OaV8zME56SmhOQ1BIZTZad0pfdTJBSWlPVDlzeUU2RHpvS24tLWN5emhXWE1ReFItUDI?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/libyas-largest-oil-refinery-halts-operations-during-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/jobs-report-set-show-hiring-090728306.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/639659-trump-punish-germany-appeasement/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-08
2026-05-08
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策：法院裁定10%关税违法后，特朗普可能上诉或转向其他法律工具。
- 中东政策：美伊军事冲突使停火谈判陷入停滞，美国或加大制裁与军事施压，伊朗则可能加速核计划作为杠杆。
- 欧洲动向：英法联合提出霍尔木兹战后安全通行方案，显示欧洲准备在冲突后介入航道安全。
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难
关税违法 / 贸易不确定性下降 / 企业信心恢复 / 经济衰退预期缓解
军事冲突 / 避险情绪 / 黄金 / 美元走强 / 风险资产抛售
欧洲航母部署 / 多国介入风险 / 地缘联动 / 资产波动率上升
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-usa-und-iran-beschiessen-sich-in-strasse-von-hormus-a-b0cb0e94-a59e-49b0-b574-af358c0ab39d
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617187.shtml
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508065335EuD
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBwQnR2X3ZtNDFrbkQwTTRjcnJtVW8zc2pMTXJxLTFZUDBDOTRGaXhueVVLekZaSVdpNGl3MkpqT29EekY2ejFXSU9PdkpNR1ZNamdBakI4ZUZob253YlIwanVpUndGQ1lETktXLVZtWV8tc1Q2VnVR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-it-struck-targets-in-iran-after-attack-on-warships/live-77088159?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260507-middle-east-war-live-us-and-iran-accuse-each-other-of-ceasefire-violations-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5559083/selat-hormuz-memanas-iran-as-saling-serang-lagi
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/well-knock-them-out-harder-trump-warns-iran-of-harsher-military-action-after-3-us-ships-came-under-fire-in-hormuz/articleshow/130933318.cms
- [9] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201309
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-trade-fire-west-asia-war-strait-of-hormuz/article70952891.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/briefing/trade-court-trump-tariffs.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-says-targeted-iranian-military-214422794.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/7/videos-show-interceptions-over-the-skies-of-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617182.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508090836LPE
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508091222lYj
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617209.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9saEpROVFUXzB4QzBtT1Z2ZWlmODQydTdKdG9aRXFPb1BjQWV0LTFNdjAyZGlrTlVMX3Z4NmZTa2VGX0x1WlRrLWZyNUtRUlkwMTdVenNBTFcxR3I1MS1sYmxHRHFKMWtveVFXVUU5bEpOclhhcUl3OFRXVlJ2b1U?oc=5
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/economy/trump-global-tariff-ruled-illegal.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE95RHFJYjM2ZkFnRXRTMlVqSmFob0NKdld0Z0ZwMWVhU0FZYmN2VVZtNmZiaEJCTjAxRTg3X2pSMEJqT1VwTWhjam93eGFEdXktM1VJWA?oc=5
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20260507-strait-of-hormuz-what-role-for-france
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/big-setback-for-trump-us-court-rules-10-global-tariffs-unlawful/articleshow/130930650.cms
2026-05-07
2026-05-07
进展要点
- 特朗普政府采取“军事施压+外交谈判”双轨策略，访华前达成协议是优先目标。
- 伊朗正在审议美方提议，但铀浓缩暂停期限等核心分歧仍存（Yonhap News TV）。
- 俄罗斯通过外交警告升级对乌克兰施压，可能为胜利日攻势铺垫。
关联路径
美伊协议进展 / 油价风险溢价下降 / 全球通胀预期缓和 / 股债双升
俄乌胜利日升级 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强 / 新兴市场资金外流
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东风险溢价上升 / 油价反弹 / 全球增长担忧
油轮袭击事件 / 航运保险成本上升 / 贸易中断风险增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639549-us-iran-tanker-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507090601M8I
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201283
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260506-russia-warns-foreign-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-of-strike
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-fires-on-iranian-oil-tanker-as-trump-pressures-tehran-for-deal-to-end-war/article70948554.ece
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42967
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-07/10616597.shtml
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/angriffskrieg-in-der-ukraine-russland-dringt-auf-evakuierung-auslaendischer-botschaften-in-kyjiw-a-ab69353b-9c0f-4df2-9d63-32d768005654
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYy05cU1rcVk3aXlCRFNmNTJ3WEhSalR4dkk5MC1YNl9WWG1XaG9QVWNLQUhoZGRvaDA3cmRNSkdtZDI5dkI3aERJbmRBd01FWFlsOFBCYTQ4OEQxM3RrNU1HNXhqZ1dWZkQxZkxXTng2N3ZWdk1NaXJsNVpwMEtqb1NySUVXbjk5ZDZLS1ptdk1fVGdqMVdCckNOdW43Rnc?oc=5
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/russia-tells-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-moscow-launches-mass-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/could-ceasefire-ceased-iran-back-212505667.html
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260506014152315
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/business/french-ship-hormuz-central-command.html
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/iran-hit-more-us-defence-assets-than-reported-satellite-images-show/articleshow/130869021.cms
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/israel-strikes-beirut-for-first-time-since-lebanon-ceasefire/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082751XF8
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082829agH
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42966
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/trump-says-had-very-good-talks-with-iran-as-tehran-reviews-us-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/6/israel-bombs-beiruts-southern-suburbs-2?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-trump-sieht-einigung-nahe-iran-prueft-moegliches-abkommen-a-19ef1840-45d3-432c-9c43-33fb235eb608
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-bombardiert-erstmals-seit-waffenruhe-beiruter-vorort-a-bf8e6513-5e0b-4e43-8d07-5167be697fef
2026-05-06
2026-05-06
进展要点
- 特朗普暂停护航行动以等待协议，但维持对伊朗港口封锁，政策处于观望模式。
- 美国国务卿鲁比奥称进攻阶段结束，后续以防御性封锁为主。
- 伊朗通过新规强化对海峡的主权控制，可能成为谈判筹码。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应短缺预期 / 通胀风险 / 央行加息预期
特朗普暂停行动 / 短期风险偏好回升 / 股市反弹、油价回调
伊朗新规 / 实际通行受阻 / 石油实物短缺 / 油价上行
美欧贸易摩擦 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strait-hormuz-showdown-begins-u-132901358.html
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639461-global-oil-shortages-chevron/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/trump-announces-pause-on-us-operation-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260505-en-direct-donald-trump-suspendre-operation-americaine-pour-escorter-bateaux-detroit-ormuz-moyen-orient-etats-unis-liban-golfe
- [5] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1063473/iran-perkenalkan-aturan-baru-untuk-transit-kapal-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-donald-trump-setzt-militaer-einsatz-fuer-sichere-hormus-durchfahrt-aus-a-09110b24-5de9-4643-9a3d-c701250ab14f
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506083448XBA
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-operation-epic-fury-is-over-rubio-says/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616011.shtml
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypekl71gdo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOZVNNNFNuaGY3ekVlTlJra3NuT3ItcGJycnBFSF9YSHpqSzFxR3YtYjVJQjRQbl8zSTNOOWRHRkVvQ1o0ZWQ1bjMyUkk5bXRIOF94RkNTYms2cjZsNEpIc010TzJKUHF6WXVmU0FtaUs1eERwUGxJZWNESVRiOWlORVc4UUdnR2VGb3dacFVHS2NhQWhjcjl4TWpiSU4xZVpId01HVXJoeUJiVWtnZjF3V1ljUG9GX19ib3hSVzZ2bW9lZw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/639502-trump-hormuz-freedom-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616009.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080836FnL
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080338M8a
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616006.shtml
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260505-rubio-says-us-military-has-completed-offensive-operations-in-iran
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506075816iRz
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506074057CUb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506080056tMp
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616004.shtml
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616001.shtml
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072847kWz
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR2026050607171320H
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072539XhY
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050606515869I
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506065121a7o
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506063848him
2026-05-05
2026-05-05
进展要点
- 美国维持军事与制裁并重：通过“解放计划”护航并制裁伊朗石油买家。
- 特朗普将对欧汽车关税作为贸易谈判杠杆，特恩伯里协议可能被修改或废除。
- 美中在伊朗石油问题上对峙升级，中方可能以稀土或科技管制反制。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 风险资产抛售
伊朗攻击阿联酋 / 地区安全恶化 / 避险买盘 / 美元 / 黄金上涨
特朗普对欧关税威胁 / 欧盟出口前景恶化 / 欧元贬值 / 欧洲股市下跌
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国进口受阻 / 全球石油市场收紧 / 油价上行
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-us-and-uae-report-iran-attacks-as-military-pushes-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605050807137ro
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/uae-reports-missile-and-drone-strikes-incoming-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNOF9BY1FLenNuX1FCU2VTTmk0SmxDN0FqVHRFa3Nua0t6R0VBOVJBYy1xdXhsUmtzNHhqZjVMdGhPYjJobndNOWR3bFhib3VrWnJlM1BnbUxtNnJqZjFFOHlXMDRJM3p0YUl4TENJcUgzWFZRcUNZQTlBQnJrUlBrMXhJVi1pOEQ1WGNTTGpKT005WmMzUW9FbTVBYUPSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0szZUswSjRJZ0h2dUNGbm1USmdPSEZIUGszMVpsbktkaHJaZ1RoTXI5ZnlqdXhWNEpRMXY5MkxtcHRkSDNHWG8yVDJXSFNROXV0YkFscWRPdUVxcHI1cmtWN1lYSnlJX1dNQlU2QVhrbHZienBtVnFPVmtocXE5M2VkcnNRTHZvZ2NBdVI0WnVROG9TZ3Zxcmk3dlRwVFhMWWd3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/04/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-affirme-avoir-tire-des-missiles-contre-des-navires-militaires-americains-deux-navires-marchands-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz-selon-l-armee-americaine_6684072_3210.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639450-iran-us-sink-boats-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/briefing/iran-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-met-gala.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615670.shtml
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-attackiert-vereinigte-arabische-emirate-donald-trump-meldet-versenkte-iranische-boote-a-5d2d79be-0aff-43ee-a854-66f73a0e8663
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/5/iran-war-live-washington-tehran-trade-threats-over-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-en-direct-accrochages-detroit-ormuz-operation-americaine-d%C3%A9bloquer-iran-pays-golfe-liban-etats-unis-israel-missiles-drones-conseil-securite-onu
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083539uN2
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083557sW4
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPd2plZWlfWWZRNHZINm9SUVZLZnNucE1mWERKX3FMSWVzeWNSMkg0WXRTdndGQUZsSHVJcW8tLWI3NWM5V1o5NGRsTWxLdDFNazU4T0xNcndKT09pVXZ3eEo5VDRQSEZ2TTVDMjNhMGE0Vld1cHMyWGZsYk93bzNwSmw4M2pQOXp5clhzRjNPWlM?oc=5
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-amirats-arabes-unis-nouveau-vises-par-iran-au-lancement-operation-americaine-detroit-ormuz-drones-attaque-pays-golfe
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615663.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615660.shtml
- [18] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/05/04/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-donald-trump-contre-l-industrie-automobile-europeenne-fragilisent-encore-l-accord-de-turnberry_6685398_3234.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/05/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-emirats-arabes-unis-disent-avoir-intercepte-15-missiles-iraniens-et-4-drones-dans-la-journee_6684072_3210.html
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/639438-us-destroy-iran-future-analyst/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/hormuz-tensions-push-ceasefire-to-the-brink-as-trump-threatens-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/us/politics/us-china-iranian-oil-sanctions.html
2026-05-04
2026-05-04
进展要点
- 美国将单方面推进霍尔木兹海峡护航，可能绕过联合国授权，面临国际法争议。
- 伊朗可能以封锁海峡或袭击美军舰艇作为回应，停火协议面临崩溃。
- OPEC+增产旨在平抑油价，但内部裂痕可能削弱其调节能力。
- 美国对俄能源制裁可能因乌克兰袭击而进一步收紧，影子舰队成为打击目标。
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧
北约分裂 / 欧洲安全风险 / 资本流入美元 / 黄金 / 美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 油价承压 / 缓解通胀 / 风险偏好改善
乌克兰袭击 / 俄油出口下降 / 全球重油供应偏紧
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504090940oLO
- [2] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504001500315
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-announces-project-freedom-to-help-stranded-ships-leave-strait-of-hormuz/article70936417.ece
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQSVJPVVBjX2Z5alZfTHlJaDBrN0d0aS1WeWVJWlkwQ19kNTRKQldNOVJNaDJzbmtIcjdBd25mOXIyVjdJR0lHeHJtN1htUmxVQXItNUFsTllPbm8teG1oeS01WkxPTGlGOHRPa202RU9tbThkN0tRN2NZQnU2SWNHZHgwQXkyTk5kSmFlVVBwVdIBlAFBVV95cUxPSmJUYzNHM3lybFJuV2NYYjl5NWhGbkdrLWZQTEx4VWtxYmN5SzR0MEVEOTBZcFVEeEItcDZqeTJLdVJFZXQ5eUdoeGdaaUYyR3pqRHRfbWU5cHlVU0lZaDdoNkllY1ZzelBKV2IwX3djLWZJSl93S1RkVzdUd3Bta240RzVDQzNaeUFtZjh4OUlNYWxq?oc=5
- [5] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Militaer-will-festsitzende-Schiffe-aus-Strasse-von-Hormus-geleiten-id30781595.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260503-en-direct-guerre-iran-marine-americaine-va-escorter-navires-bloques-detroit-ormuz-donald-trump-cessez-feu-liban-israel
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/politics/strait-hormuz-stranded-ships.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615312.shtml
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-to-guide-ships-safely-out-of-hormuz/live-77021634?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/03/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-annonce-que-la-marine-americaine-va-escorter-des-navires-bloques-a-travers-le-detroit-d-ormuz-a-partir-de-lundi_6684072_3210.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504062226PpA
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-trump-plant-einsatz-unter-codenamen-project-freedom-a-9c929e2e-ab18-434a-9f78-bc00c6194ee2
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/3/iran-lawmaker-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-return-to-pre%e2%80%91war-state?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukraine-hits-key-russian-oil-092405352.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/639394-nato-rift-widens-as-trump-eyes-troop-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://globalnews.ca/news/11827950/iran-war-trump-reviews-proposal
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260504090443Eyo
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504085951Lh9
- [19] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504000500320
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxObUh2emxTZXgta2JVZzZkUXVmNURoTGM3ejQ0aHBaMUk5WEE4dzJjOXR3UjdtQ0FCNmNtZFJ4NjhGdlFScGdWVjRfeUhpNS1JN3dBNW5PY25rMS1BQUVXVmx4b2NLSVFVU0hyYy0weVZYY1YyY2VVSHdIZGlhOV9CNGNyQm4?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/trump-says-us-will-help-free-up-ships-stuck-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQOGJzdEItUzB5NWhkTDhrZHFmcG5VVVNlOFJycUl5UUp0cVF4UXRNdjQ0R2FxWmE3aVRKZ1U4VVdvWFIzWl9xdlRGSzlZWjI2S1JjTXZaTlRwSWZDcjdGX0RiUkVFUzE3UF9BX2k3VFBhc3lfdW43aTRYUnRuaU9rcGF0RFNJOWVNYjUzS2dVbTdNQdIBlwFBVV95cUxPT1dHdGRoYzVMVjNEWENQb2s0QXZjZFNEeDUzQkhNVnJUeVdsaUxmX3c5aWF5eGt1RFJXMUhLRGFXa2xoMDJCbHRGU1NENnQzRUN4eFliWXZmZVliVFF4RVNMX2hfajE2M2tnOFpSMjVPbFh5c2Vxb1haM1kxMHFzNFk0ZHFIWEdCbk90Q0FIU2tSUG4tTGNj?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/investigators-say-trump-assassination-suspect-shot-officer-at-press-gala?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615308.shtml
2026-05-03
2026-05-03
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策：极限施压+军事威胁，短期内无缓和迹象。
- 美国对欧洲：削减驻军、加征汽车关税，跨大西洋关系紧张。
- 美国对华：制裁伊朗原油进口网络，中方面临反制压力。
- 日本货币政策：干预汇市力度加大，但治标不治本。
关联路径
美伊谈判破裂 / 军事威胁 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险情绪恶化
科威特出口归零+伊朗减产 / 供应缺口 / 能源成本推升通胀 / 央行政策两难
中美制裁升级 / 贸易战蔓延 / 供应链重构 / 全球贸易萎缩
日元干预 / 非美货币波动 / 套利交易平仓 / 新兴市场资金外流
来源
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-un-oeil-sur-le-monde-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439438.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260503085353W9D
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/not-yet-paid-a-big-enough-price-donald-trump-sceptical-as-iran-submits-14-point-plan-to-end-war/articleshow/130726204.cms
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-usa-iran-war-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz/article70933317.ece
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/3/iran-war-live-trump-says-reviewing-14-point-plan-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-03/10614972.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxPSGJjck82amFhWlA2S0IwcDhxMExFRS04WGVfRUJUNHpUMDBkcGF1YzlZc0hzcm5DRl95WmpNamkzTVF2TGFBY01mQWRzTDFoY1JtOFlYMV9EaFZNVWJiRUFGdXhoSHEtZzNGd2VYWTc3Sk9WOExFdUZsa1hOTHZJdXpfZkN0TmU5cm16R0RPZGFqR1JsaEFGcjVR0gGfAUFVX3lxTE43empuR1NlMGN4UG4xQmMtNHdfSTdWdlMtbzdvV0VqbG9GTHlBakpWRFMzWVV1ak5rOW90WDNKT3p3MlNMMjR4Xzh2TUZFWDZ2blJfUFRBdDlQVmRONDI0Rk5qTzMtQ3FJenk2TDVXbmctN0hFUGE1YzExQ2l1TzQ1MVhTNnM2Mkg5end0SXhNVE5NOUNXbUZaVVJtV1E4VQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260502-senior-iranian-officer-says-renewed-war-with-us-likely
- [9] https://www.irna.ir/news/86143782/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinion/columns/shankkar-aiyar/2026/May/02/trumps-war-sends-prices-up-rupee-down-and-budgets-into-a-spin
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinas-commerce-ministry-blocks-us-122430312.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-dubai-emirate-oeffnen-nach-waffenruhe-ihren-luftraum-schrittweise-a-b453de7b-bb9d-46de-a75c-63a90bacd806
- [13] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-says-it-redirected-48th-vessel-from-iranian-ports/3925070
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/news/on-sindoor-eve-army-releases-list-satellite-images-of-7-pakistan-terror-camps-destroyed-rajnath-commends-valour-of-soldiers/articleshow/130726143.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260503084648QDd
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050308551598f
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/spirit-airlines-collapses-amid-rising-fuel-costs-from-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/japan-likely-spent-34-5-091653225.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/syria-becomes-alternative-energy-corridor-for-oil-as-hormuz-effectively-blo?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-lci-direct-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439398.html
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-le-prix-des-carburants-provoque-la-col%C3%A8re-des-am%C3%A9ricains-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-toujours-bloqu%C3%A9
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-la-guerre-de-donald-trump-en-iran-a-t-il-renforc%C3%A9-le-r%C3%A9gime-des-mollahs
- [23] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-drafts-plan-to-regulate-strait-of-hormuz-transit-deputy-parliament-speaker/3925209
- [24] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-strikes-damaged-16-us-military-sites-in-middle-east-report-claims/3925162
2026-05-02
2026-05-02
进展要点
- 特朗普利用《战争权力法》60天期限已满，声称敌对行动结束以规避国会授权，但实际军事行动可能继续
- 欧盟可能迅速出台报复性关税清单，涉及美国牛肉、飞机等商品
- 英国央行警告伊朗战争推高能源账单和抵押贷款利率，货币政策面临两难
关联路径
汽车关税 / 美欧贸易战 / 全球增长预期下修 / 风险资产下跌
美伊谈判僵局 / 军事打击风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
伊朗袭击美军基地 / 地缘溢价上升 / 黄金避险买盘
战争支出扩大 / 美国财政赤字 / 长期利率担忧
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260502000253315
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/1/trump-announces-25-percent-tariffs-on-european-union-cars-trucks?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260501-trump-va-relever-les-droits-de-douane-%C3%A0-25-sur-les-v%C3%A9hicules-europ%C3%A9ens-d%C3%A8s-la-semaine-prochaine
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502015724pi5
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/d14d22e17e844cffb2a706d522068854/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPRWhEcG1UbEtCVld6T1lkcWZ0NjVLdHducUxSWlV2Wmo2eEJKaGo1b0hkLTJWb2NPMVd3NGszUXJ4MTI3UjhtcGh4TTdqZXMxQlk2SUQ0TjRlQ1REbnZ6RFJOMXBTUHM2MWs0RTNoNGJ1aFVsSFJhbVlSaDZjUkpaOUFjNjN5NmJZejRrbUx6SQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg4pqe1zzgqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.sky.com/story/eu-hits-back-at-8216unacceptable8217-donald-trump-over-plans-to-increase-tariffs-13539002
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trump-neue-autozoelle-treffen-europa-und-einen-deutschen-konzern-hart-a-be3f04b9-0109-4076-afab-218a01bd4c1c
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-to-raise-tariffs-on-cars-trucks-from-eu-to-25/a-77014772?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/1b9232412f534545a7ff8bef8edb07e5/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/1/trump-considering-option-to-blast-the-hell-out-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260501-n%C3%A9gociations-iran-etats-unis-dans-l-impasse-frappes-sur-le-liban-offensive-djihadiste-au-mali
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-donald-trump-will-kongress-nicht-um-erlaubnis-fuer-krieg-bitten-a-25a2ffb1-5728-420c-94da-f7af7f767942
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502044340Ob9
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz7l5v03po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOTXlxd1U3RE5OempqQ25NOHczbnkxc3FOSTRmMWU4RnN5WW1LZ3ZUUVhvYkU2cGg1RTNfVkJwMTlRaU5YdzhlQUdBVzkteWhVanRubkpnYnRTazBRdU4wX1ZPX1hKWnp3cjc0VHJiMFNqWDJObUdKblB4eTI0ZlQxT0oyclY1YkpvMEViOHpobWM0SmM5VFhZQldySUtJb19TT2JyeVhmVzB0RllKaWtGWGJDMGVuUQ?oc=5
2026-05-01
2026-05-01
进展要点
- 美国对伊政策：特朗普拒绝伊朗提议，坚持先核协议后解除封锁，中央司令部已准备军事选项。
- 美联储维持利率不变，但内部对宽松偏向的分歧可能限制未来降息空间，关注5月会议纪要。
- 日本财务省可能继续干预日元，但效果短暂，需关注美日财长协调动向。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升 / 央行政策两难
美伊军事对抗 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产（美元、黄金）流入 / 风险资产抛售
阿联酋退出OPEC+ / OPEC+控制力削弱 / 油价波动率上升 / 产油国财政和地缘博弈
日本外汇干预 / 日元短期升值 / 套息交易平仓 / 亚洲汇市连锁反应
来源
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/04/30/42914
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260501090925pcX
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260430-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-prix-du-p%C3%A9trole-au-plus-haut-depuis-2022
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-launches-fx-intervention-briefly-pushing-yen-to-155-from-160
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/1/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-ports-siege-intolerable-trump-mulls-action?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/a88369f137c10336.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-01/10614135.shtml
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/gulf-within-on-the-uae-leaving-opec/article70925606.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-103203927.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE9hTWF6eEpfcXlEcnlrNEZENTVLMEo5VzI1ajl0QUgtc0hjZF9ZVHE5b1FBaENzTkttSHpTUThnNEFReG9zVzJLenhEZFZVRnd1djVQWmRB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-strait-hormuz.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/639306-uae-opec-power-play/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/7ee2fe1fc9621f70.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/us-gas-reaches-4-30-per-gallon-trump-says-prices-will-drop-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260430-mojtaba-khamenei-d%C3%A9fie-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-le-cours-du-p%C3%A9trole-reste-volatile
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNbHEzUkJqd3VxMWZrZVlWNGpTUlE4ak4wbjlSeDAtS2pELUUwWWtyMVpfQWJNVnRybDFJajU1ZVIyQUVQN0ZzR3hkb2hCOHNfdjdXd0hrd19MMWhMd3pQQUZPbHk3ZUR2Q1BYZzZtTWoyWHFKN0g2V2pNbXV4eUZRZEtZb0dLOWtjWHI4cEpobXUxemVZcHpnLUI2dXg2TW05b3NmeFd30gGrAUFVX3lxTFBLNW5ZVG5TU0l0ZjhuWVVCMmMzRzU3NG1wLUJadE95cmdabkQyakhPMlh2bzRGLTBkSVczVWR1MVJpTndlTGdJajJ0VGJPd2ROal9qNXFhMEhFanB2dmhZS1otdnotU3c2YnRuRmppU2x1S0hLRTlzMUZxUXJJbUp4anJub1YwNHczNnVNZ1hwTi1tclNsLVhmMlBMWWQtRENJSHhJTDhneUkwVQ?
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trump-china-iran.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/639308-pentagon-underreporting-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-30
2026-04-30
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率不变，高能源价格或使降息窗口推迟，市场焦点转向鲍威尔是否留任以及特朗普可能施压。
- 美国对伊朗长期海上封锁政策明确，短期无缓和信号，能源市场继续承压。
- 中国对欧盟“欧洲制造”法案的强硬立场可能引发报复性贸易措施，关注5月动态。
- 阿联酋退出OPEC后，OPEC+能否维持减产协议存疑，沙特可能增产以抢占份额。
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 全球避险
特朗普延长封锁+阿联酋退出OPEC / 供给不确定性增大 / 原油波动率飙升 / 能源股与航空股分化
中国施压欧盟 / 中欧贸易摩擦升级 / 欧元 / 人民币汇率波动 / 全球贸易链成本上升
鲍威尔留任+独立性争议 / 美联储政策路径不确定性 / 美债收益率曲线陡化 / 银行股与科技股估值压力
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260430062349378
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639259-iran-war-60-days/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/iran-krieg-brent-oelpreis-schiesst-nach-drohungen-von-donald-trump-in-die-hoehe-a-c6abe27e-8f4f-4aea-b3d3-03577bd2bcce
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-powell-to-stay-on-after-chair-term/article70922354.ece
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613439.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQOWMyU0ZNQ0M1YklBdzNpTmFlc0xyRGh5MllkbUtGRUMwS0FyaVlJVlh4c3JXNjlDVWpQSTdfOTVROXl3WHBOV3MteFBlZ1ZxZTdFYmVQMzJpLXpocklLUm9nYTRHa3pEbzZxYlN5M1duUktiOXY3dVc4RU9yNXlneWNsOW9qaFd3TlZDV1RrVXY4clpVY1pJazdfbTZ3bk5oWXAwZDJaRklSeGNnZ3diU3ppUkZCcTBUNXc?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/29/uae-quits-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rm4zk3kgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260430/b6793c9c730a4df7b1476b9cadc8dde6/c.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4118026-putin-announces-his-readiness-to-declare-ceasefire-on-may-9.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430090250cDZ
- [12] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-keeps-iran-blockade-trump-links-move-to-nuclear-deal-as-oil-nears-120/article70922353.ece
- [13] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/fed-chef-jerome-powell-er-bleibt-a-1f5db838-3887-49a4-8788-36fcaef16b6d
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613435.shtml
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/29/why-is-the-uae-quitting-opec-and-whats-the-impact?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300833473Qc
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080150X59
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080002e2g
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300732533nE
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430072101IHb
2026-04-29
2026-04-29
进展要点
- 美国财政部禁止支付霍尔木兹通行费，扩大制裁，意在切断伊朗收入但可能引发伊朗更强硬反应。
- 欧盟及德国呼吁联合国安理会介入霍尔木兹危机，但短期内难以达成共识。
- 中国外交部已就制裁中企事件表态维权，中美在能源与制裁领域博弈加剧。
关联路径
阿联酋退出OPEC / OPEC解体风险 / 各国增产竞争 / 油价长期走势不确定性
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
美伊僵局持续 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）上涨
世界银行能源价格预测 / 市场对央行政策预期调整 / 风险资产波动加大
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-in-blow-to-oil-cartel-amid-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/uae-quits-opec-in-shock-move-amid-energy-turmoil/a-76968579?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260429/6223708a8ab742bd9add51e81cfb276e/c.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/uae-opec.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612580.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260428/42f598d771584143a69a6d3205fd0d71/c.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260428-iran-talks-stall-amid-hormuz-tensions-and-ceasefire-violations-in-lebanon
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429080038Urk
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR0Nyd3lpa3Q5SDNRVlNYbG1nUXQwUkU5WlY5SGFrQmROTFZXWGhYRnNBR2JHTDdZMmdBb2REc29FaGdVWTlCa28yMEttd3RKaGZINVk4NHBDakF6amc0d0pFeDA5Vk8tS0RGOVdmc245TlRxUjJNdlJTRHZES2wzU0NtRnZMT0FI?oc=5
- [10] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/639229-uae-opec-cartel-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-104929175.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-and-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260428/f7281943198e487ea398f92dbf47fb08/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429073257Z46
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260428-uae-opec-departure-a-manifestation-of-dissatisfaction-vis-%C3%A0-vis-saudi-arabia-expert-says
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTE94dUdMcUxFZlZPcVJtX3N5UWJzQmhfRDBPUktSZkZndkppelJhWHQxeGk5QWwwX2pqWTV3aWdka2U2MGpITWpSckVZS3RhRHJ4TlN0ZFN4WXFqdi1HMG1OdU5xTThiNUxLLWpXd1pJRnREZw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/united-arab-emirates-leaves-opec.html
2026-04-28
2026-04-28
进展要点
- 美国国内：特朗普遇刺指控可能加剧政治分裂，但短期内或强化对现任总统的同情支撑。
- 美伊谈判：特朗普评估和平计划，但美方立场强硬，谈判进展缓慢。
- 联合国：安理会讨论霍尔木兹海峡问题，德国呼吁集体行动。
- 欧盟：推动“欧洲制造”本地化，可能触发与中国贸易报复。
关联路径
特朗普遇刺未遂 / 政治不确定性 / 避险需求 / 美元 / 黄金升，股市跌
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 油价涨 / 通胀预期升 / 风险资产承压
美伊谈判进展 / 供给风险下降 / 风险偏好回升（受限）
中欧贸易摩擦 / 关税 / 非关税壁垒 / 全球贸易放缓 / 相关货币 / 股票受挫
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/politics/trump-assassination-attempt-cole-allen-charges.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/28/iran-war-live-trump-reviews-peace-plan-un-calls-for-hormuz-to-reopen?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083338GrV
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612004.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPd2Q4RjJxWldmdnJEOHNpNG0yeUJDR3hDVFBoanBrZHVuTFJoSGw3MnN6QllNTVI4dC1LMUsyYWNwMlhkT1RfN3QxanZXYU5QVFZvaklBN3ZVOS1fMHFNVVBPS3pSTTNCS1RiLWhTNm12TTdTRjRnemt0SXA4aXpZSmNDajZOYkFudlB2cEV3?oc=5
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260427-suspect-in-press-gala-shooting-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/man-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump-in-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting/article70913760.ece
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting-suspect-arraigned-monday/story?id=132410865
- [10] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-04/usa-korrespondentendinner-donald-trump-attentat-anklage
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5544797/as-tolak-iran-kuasai-selat-hormuz
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083424bVv
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_AFBVV95cUxPX0xJcUFkRWhScGRqdXdFNV94ZUYyb0JWOHdiRkdiakFSWFRGd2dqZ2tnSXladUpFcklMZkJUVDltX0JvZFkxaDVLV2JPV1lmS0VPVHV3MDJZR05Dc3N0TGVrYUkwU0FHeGhiTmZITnV5cUVpanlwbVVyZWFCbm1hS3BWQUZ5Tk5xRzhTTV94SEcxbVU3ZWJtUnJRNmh6ZkZRUC0zTTBwdG85SHBDUVNXNDl1bDlDZkZLU1N3NFZwRjY4VHNiUjNiQnA1VmVFNmFCLTFjRXhncHlfWWQwSEFhWW5LejItckgxUS1GcDZHOEs2ZEdBSW95cGdTeEY?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/hezbollah-and-israel-swap-threats-and-strikes-across-lebanons-border?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz-nuclear.html
- [16] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-vows-countermeasures-if-eu-enacts-made-in-europe-plan/article70913665.ece
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
进展要点
- 美国国内：刺杀事件或加速特朗普支持率反弹，强化对伊朗强硬立场
- 美国对伊朗：豁免终止叠加海军拦截行动，石油封锁与反封锁博弈加剧
- 美国对以色列：口头支持停火但行动默许，以军可能在黎巴嫩扩大行动
- 俄罗斯-朝鲜：长期军事合作框架落地，俄可能换取朝鲜弹药支持
关联路径
特朗普遇刺 / 政治不确定性 / 美元 / 黄金上涨 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗海峡收费+美豁免终止 / 石油供应收缩 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期抬升
以黎冲突升级 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产走强
俄乌核设施遇袭 / 核安全担忧 / 地缘溢价扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427091017XG8
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260426/daba923ddc844ddabea5d0129532f166/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-27/10611350.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxgv8j7zlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPcVBWblkyWXVKYUo5a0NJTU5leldLUzZ2alhRVXFoWHdHWWtkZDJwSUl3WVZWeW92T001QXJNLUEwY1NnNUlxSk4wVEM2LWJ4d290NXBFbzF5RkRpMzFNd3JzQTRGejBHNWx6bjFEM2o2dmJJMy1uVllaenRMcUlzTUp4T2lqel9GU1ZnSW9nd253bFo4UVRjMVhEdVFuMW1mM3EtYXp4WXNCamtaZ2steWtXclVJZGlLTFE?oc=5
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/us/politics/shots-fired-inside-the-pandemonium-at-the-washington-hilton.html
- [7] https://orf.at/stories/3428055
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-wont-renew-iranian-russian-215951473.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/israel-issues-forced-evacuation-orders-for-southern-lebanon-in-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4116887-zelensky-strike-on-chernobyl-npp-shows-moscow-cannot-be-trusted-as-international-partner.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/russia-north-korea-agree-long-term-military-cooperation/a-76945404?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/how-israel-deployed-iron-dome-to-uae-amid-iran-war-explained/articleshow/130535531.cms
- [13] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ee3833fdddff1c348b458a.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/feuilleton/2026-04/correspondents-dinner-donald-trump-attentat-pressekonferenz-weisses-haus
- [15] https://elpais.com/videos/2026-04-26/cronologia-visual-del-atentado-contra-trump-en-la-cena-de-corresponsales-de-la-casa-blanca.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427072511bO0
- [17] https://orf.at/stories/3428051
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-peace-talks-pakistan.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPUDFiSmpOTEdtZlVya0poQkx2Q29ZNlZGWkEtd21lVk5IQ20yXzBTbmZsOV9BM0RvTk9rMUREaTJPYmJEZUV0V2I3cUdVa3lBVkJGY2NJcnd1THVvVGZkWURleFBnWjZrMUVlaW5iZ2g0OEc3dW9hdy1PNzlqeVdRcy1ZU0pWMC1BUGdTb2JPVVFfd1RKdVBBUS1DcFYxdU44cGFzSE5FR2_SAa4BQVVfeXFMTVloSWlMQjRRa0FxRlNoMHBKM3RERjhla2ctajgyUEF6UmNqbFZ2bklrS2lDUF81U0pTZlRmVGlDN2tvNldoRmxEa1Z4cjBQTVJrbmNiUDFDWHo4WEVubnowYWtDbkMxYUpMblJxTkdPN0JYdVZRRlBOQlB2ZktBakFvS0ZIOXVxWFJfeDBrOVBGeU91OF8zZjFDcGVLX2F1ZW9DVGdyTW54LS0
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/trump-his-administration-likely-targets-at-media-dinner-us-official?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-26
2026-04-26
进展要点
- 美国预计继续以‘经济之怒’金融施压伊朗，同时可能推动扫雷以恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行。
- 特朗普面临选举年经济压力，可能调整伊朗政策以控制油价，但外交窗口已关闭。
- 英国等欧洲国家将加速制定能源短缺应急预案，可能释放战略石油储备。
- 以色列对黎巴嫩政策趋于强硬，美国或保持有限支持，但默许打压迫真主党。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀与央行紧缩预期
美伊谈判破裂 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强
以黎冲突升级 / 中东溢出风险 / 原油流动性收紧
特朗普言论 / 政策不确定性 / 股市波动放大
来源
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/doble-bloqueo-estrecho-ormuz-atasca-trump-busqueda-salida-caotica-gestion-guerra-iran_1_13168241.html
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russian-attacks-kill-3-wound-082655969.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/26/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-talks-under-siege-trump-cancels-envoys-trip?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ecadb421efa0b0538b45a2.html
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/usa-iran-trump-absage-pakistan
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426085319zmZ
- [7] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-says-its-hunting-for-explosive-mines-in-latest-push-to-open-strait-of-hormuz/article70905372.ece
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1060483/iran-sita-dua-kapal-di-selat-hormuz-diduga-terkait-dengan-israel
- [9] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-stepping-up-plans-potential-37069193
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-sonntag-112.html
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/perehovory-ssha-ta-iranu-v-pakystani-zirvalysia-shche-do-pochatku-hlava-mzs-iranu-zalyshyv-islamabad
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-26/10610976.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxOUHFYOUgyaGRzV0Z3eWVYQkNoR3Zfd1NxdjJyR000bDhDYk12dUs4RnNRSThKbHF0d2I4STM2NXNyNU5SRTZncGNlcmxDblZrOVV5WUt1VmIxZG5TdTV2YUR2N3RvZ2pYeWxIUW5rUndJd1EzTXJvRE54bHMxNTVkanUwZWFZdHRqanhhalVpZ1NWRi03UDhCLVRseHlQRF9rTVExa2lfN2U4d3MwVEEtMi1HMm4?oc=5
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Netanjahu-befiehlt-trotz-Waffenruhe-massive-Angriffe-im-Libanon-id30755821.html
- [15] https://orf.at/stories/3427974
- [16] https://www.irna.ir/news/86137239/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF
- [17] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/latest-ceasefire-talks-fail-as-irans-top-diplomat-leaves-pakistan-and-trump-tells-envoys-not-to-go
- [18] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozdushnye-sily-rossiya-vypustila-po-ukraine-47-raket-i-bolee-600-bespilotnikov
- [19] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260425-strait-talks-what-s-at-stake-in-hormuz
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426080800Pgk
2026-04-25
2026-04-25
进展要点
- 美联储：沃什接任预期强化，缩表进程可能提前，但消费者信心疲软或推迟加息。
- 美国财政部：继续对伊朗石油实施金融封锁，豁免到期后可能扩大次级制裁。
- 中国商务部：可能报复性制裁美国企业，或限制稀土出口。
- 欧洲央行：需关注中国制裁对欧洲制造业的影响，可能维持宽松。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
美国制裁中国炼油厂 / 中国石油进口成本上升 / 人民币贬值压力 / 新兴市场资金外流
消费者信心崩溃 / 美国消费放缓 / 经济衰退预期 / 美债收益率曲线倒挂加深
沃什缩表信号 / 流动性收紧 / 利率上升 / 股票估值压缩
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639021-trump-hormuz-iranian-boats-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/world/middleeast/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-23/trump-ordena-disparar-a-matar-a-los-barcos-que-minen-ormuz-y-dice-que-iran-no-sabe-quien-es-su-lider.html
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260425090048v87
- [5] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/24/us-imposes-sanctions-on-a-china-based-oil-refinery-40-shippers-over-iranian-oil
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/us-justice-department-drops-investigation-into-fed-chair-powell/a-76929212?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOeUFpRTI4WDZhekJUTm1KdGVjNzZiQ3BkR0FySWMzNHlyd1N4SnZTMGpXV2pWRjdQZnYxRUJpM0REUmZxbXFFakRFbG9ZRDJVeWVqM25LcmV3ZURPbWZlXzkxOUhEN0NnOVpwWVdNcU5vakJhazZOVmN5VG5GLVZ0WFAxQ0RXd2pwc1JTYlFOam1raV9CS25lTXQweXhYcUNjWlIzajJzQ013RjgxQS1F0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1UZmFPY2IyMnZvd0lDRmFFVk9HdDhsVnA2RmlfZW52Mkk1allGS0M4RmZ3RHRva01lQmhMZjhCdTFfdnJtNUlBekx5MUJfa09HTE56WURvdGNheDN3Y1Y5SlVVU19SUnFwUWFnYTlUNEZaVDVZQ01DUElDTENMZE9lUnZ1WkYxbFRoTUJxU3dITlFJa014a3liMnkzcFBSNWdwR1R
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260425/0c21b585a3b042a0a07f61a95419c370/c.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/24/russian-oil-exports-slump-as-ukraine-hammers-ports-and-refineries?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-slaps-export-curbs-on-european-firms-over-taiwan-arms-sales/article70901919.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-25/10610558.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-bans-dual-items-exports-083335858.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-hegseth-us-blockade-has-gone-global
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202604250844155JP
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNbHZtdmRvTVVHbUdLSXRqam5mSEsxZTUxdHFwaENuVktwWVR1NVp6UUVEWnpVbHNxampEMngtRVpad1M0emxUZUhRcThVTTFnbWZrYnFSNHJrVWZXNHR4SHhwQlBHOURMbm8zR04zcmhkdTFYRUlRY0VoVnItdVhsRnhTU1lEZnVyeUc0a0Zqb2xNNGhDeDR4VmtqVUJ2UC1jRF9LY0FLR1B6RWU1WVhreU5uVdIBuAFBVV95cUxPWkVSdXFvTDYyaDhkcFRHRUYxWjM0amJrZGxXSElSb2Q5bnlwREhPbkZ6T0JFQ3U2Ml9QSjJPQW5UYTRmaWEzcDN0RDJ4RkV6akJpWVZfWjJGd3FKQW9pN3Z3UmJQZU1EeE82bzRhUVJQbWJwR0Rxa1hzSFR1TWJIdURzWEJCMjM1b0lKM2UtRjl3YUdySkFXVzlwd1U1U0E
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-rates-balance-sheet.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/24/us-justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/639029-israel-threatens-iran-stone-age/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10610537.shtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-24/el-cerco-maritimo-estadounidense-agrava-la-fragil-situacion-economica-de-iran.html
2026-04-24
2026-04-24
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙持续，外交谈判陷入僵局，伊朗拒谈直至封锁解除
- 特朗普不急于结束战争，美国增派航母表明长期军事存在
- 欧盟连续对俄制裁，但内部分歧（如斯洛伐克诉讼）可能削弱执行
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险资产下跌
欧盟制裁俄罗斯 / 能源贸易限制 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 欧元承压
中东战争 / 巴拿马运河收费翻倍 / 全球贸易成本上升
德黑兰防空活动 / 停火破裂风险 / 避险需求提振黄金
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69ea61f0e85eceab218b45a1.html
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-shoot-and-kill-on-mine-laying-boats-in-strait-of-hormuz/live-76903459?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-seizes-another-115401871.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260424/trump-orders-us-navy-to-destroy-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/us-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/23/trump-orders-military-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-small-boats-choking-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/24362fec668c4243bdc5f187d6e9c804/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBHWHh4MHJiY3N4OUJkNG8tSnpscUVWQjFMaUhtMkdMOGxtU0s5YjY0TzBpNUhsZ0Y3YzJ3clVaa2d2X29MMUNTRXhKQ0tWbUlfTUxrcGJmMmpFbUZYTUpjVjR1bHAwbzV4UGJsVmRFWXFfTFl3b3Q0?oc=5
- [9] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578508.html
- [10] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Dritter-US-Flugzeugtraeger-im-Nahen-Osten-eingetroffen-id30749237.html
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609724.shtml
- [12] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/panama-canal-transit-fees-skyrocket-amid-war-in-middle-east/3916289
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260424/563b5786ef5a4642a43fd7c4b70058e5/c.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/24/iran-war-live-lebanon-truce-extended-trump-says-time-not-on-tehrans-side?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69e9dc91e9cf4ab1528b4573.html
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578352.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Explosionen-und-Flugabwehr-ueber-Teheran-id30749146.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609710.shtml
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPZnctV1ZiSVNwQ2pqOFo4V0pCOFVZOEJjYUkwVUVWNzFIZEZBVnIzQlV5eEU2MGNlUWllOE9IVFc4dE96SmdOOVp0UjZjWmVEQlZjazI3SG9yb1k3WGJxbVlEXzU5bUZnU2YteDdLaVNlTHk0NGlDTUdyZ3l4ZXBxelBsYVdQalNja3c0Ug?oc=5
2026-04-23
2026-04-23
进展要点
- 美国可能继续强化能源供应链，以应对通胀压力和地缘风险。
- 欧盟推进乌克兰贷款和对俄制裁，旨在维护区域稳定，但可能加剧能源紧张。
- 德国下调增长预期，可能促使欧元区调整货币政策以应对通胀。
- 特朗普政府延长停火但无终战时间表，显示外交政策不确定性持续。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨
停火延长 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹
能源危机 / 经济增长下调 / 风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxPUTdJWGw0MnB0amZkdDE2aXVJckZnRlFYd0xfa3RYc2dmTHNFWXVLLWdRb0Nld2otX2tFc0dTclBJdFpYMEtPbnltRXREUV9jdVhTa01lMXl3Rzl2MFV5T29xOWR4b0l0SGpvTzROcWRzZFhpdjNVS0xNMDZjbGI4WXpGZW1USEdKQU9rSG80OWo1bjV0UnJLckh0ZlZPVTVLa2FNcjZmNmtzUEpydmFN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1tc3Qxd1ZDQnhhcXU0TEs3aFB2aGZMVmhZRzQ2aGU4MkpTTG04YnU5QUpEbG9rTjhFOVBOTm5IMDFWaURnMHhWVXR1R1NSc2xEbktZRXpycUlOcVV1eEVkVEZSdVhneFNSdWF1dWZzWV9mTzlZQnEwa0tmX3hBUFZCWm5zb0dzMTZVbHkzQ09rVGM5dm5ocWc3ZEhtMFlHMTY2RXB
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-maintains-blockade-diplomacy-stalls?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/3da4708309dd4578bd9853b98a86c87a/c.html
- [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-divers-mines-strait-of-hormuz/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w3vqv0edpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-stocks-close-higher-after-trump-extends-ceasefire-with-iran-earnings-boost-sentiment/3915269
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260423/69a4fb69dfc24375a06c1ec4201d8b04/c.html
- [8] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/22/irgc-fires-on-container-ship-in-hormuz-as-trump-says-iran-collapsing-financially
- [9] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638934-fuel-crisis-summer-holidays-europe/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-23/10608931.shtml
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/ukraine-restarts-russian-oil-flows-to-europe-unblocking-90bn-eu-loan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozle-chernobylskoi-i-hmelnitskoi-aes-proletalo-35-kinzhalov-nekotorye-upali-kravchenko
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995dkl4dvvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-hormuz-as-us-blockade-holds-talks-stall?utm_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-turned-back-29-vessels-since-start-of-naval-blockade-of-iran-centcom/3915220
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPRFZKelM2ZlBobW5DVjNhY2ZWeDc2a0VKZ3otVU1xNWFIOHFSVFhKUTFMenFtc3JUSTNwcWRoYW5uN05RZFhYcHFYQ1RNTHQ1YjVtQUlUcm55SHJmcV9FdzBzNFBIRDRDS3MzanlnN280bWFDSVRpY3NQZW5xanBHWWFzLVp5SUltSEh3eVV5ZmpjcWpUZDJ0eTZUVW8wMG9DdVdNcEpOM2t3bE0ydGVJZkZKTHhJVHp3UEdv?oc=5
- [18] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/evrosoyuz
- [19] https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-slashes-economy-growth-forecasts/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
2026-04-22
2026-04-22
进展要点
- 美联储主席提名听证会进行中，政策方向不确定性增加
- 欧洲央行行长拉加德关注能源冲击，可能影响欧元区货币政策
- 美国维持对伊朗海军封锁，显示地缘政策强硬立场
- 日本武器出口放宽反映安全环境恶化，区域防务政策调整
关联路径
伊朗谈判破裂 / 中东地缘风险上升 / 油价和金价上涨 / 通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪
中美 tensions / 制裁风险 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金上涨
美联储政策预期 / 美元和利率波动 / 全球资产重新定价 / 股市调整
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260422/82f87a374e194c6eaba6c6c350563634/c.html
- [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-france-to-lead-multinational-strait-of-hormuz-military-planning-conference
- [3] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/trump-estende-indefinidamente-o-cessar-fogo-com-o-ira-horas-antes-de-fim-de-prazo.ghtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/eu-eyes-options-as-iran-conflict-threatens-jet-fuel-shortages?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/04/21/petroleo-sobe-com-impasse-nas-negociacoes-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-dials-up-pressure-after-japanese-destroyer-transits-taiwan-strait
- [7] https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/donald-trump-primark-rollsroyce-jd-vance-tim-cook-b1279515.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dl3ez4mpno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/thought-i-had-understanding-with-xi-trump-says-ship-seized-by-us-had-gift-from-china-for-iran/articleshow/130421362.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638850-japan-pacifict-policy-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-22/10608177.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPX05YQks4SXZnMmVqN1Zxb1l5VDVvQkpzUlJKWHNhNjZFSVhsVEczYV9nTTluTHlROHl4b3FkeHY3MG83a21DVkVWQ2MwSzBmRmVNWHByd19DNGdIRzR0MTN0X3Q3LV9SRWFTOWxObm9raE11MkJOeXB2b2RMS3d4VHlSSERCNngwdEx1X0hESUtNTWpaS0F6dXljbDN4bS1NSXVTNU50RllVWXprMXhaSg?oc=5
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/peace-deal-trump-bombing-ceasefire-deadline-b2961967.html
- [14] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260420~cdf674023e.en.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/energy-environment/strait-hormuz-oil-natural-gas.html
- [16] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4114995-zelensky-approves-list-of-ukraines-next-military-operations.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/d76e6830831749beb548e9357889dd1c/c.html
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/ir-diz-que-bloqueio-naval-dos-eua-ato-de-guerra.ghtml
- [20] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/21/kevin-warsh-diz-que-fed-precisa-de-novo-arcabouco-para-enfrentar-a-inflacao.ghtml
2026-04-21
2026-04-21
进展要点
- 美联储独立性面临考验，特朗普提名凯文·M·沃什领导美联储，将捍卫利率设定能力。
- 美国维持对伊朗强硬政策，封锁霍尔木兹海峡直至达成协议。
- 通胀压力上升因油价上涨，可能影响全球央行政策收紧步伐。
- 特朗普威胁对伊朗实施经济战，包括关税和制裁，政策不确定性高。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地区冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
谈判破裂 / 中东升级 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/65dcf44dad444df1af920586d6915969/c.html
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd88r2wjzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/20/how-is-the-iran-war-affecting-the-russia-ukraine-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260421/e881f10543754b00b9e5db0a154542e5/c.html
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-b2961365.html
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/military-blockade-iran-strait-hormuz.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxORXd1REM4UGE3TGNlNUo3SENlLVVKU0c5a0pYSE9tUGxVSXZ4TTR5UDhNdjMtMzMyUGxSaXdMZFRaajVvZkl4X01FOER2QWFHTExmdUppX0N2UlpLdW5BOFp6R1dCQkpESGh0TDRLZU5ORlB3OXo2aFhMVTA1V1EyNmlkNndvMGU4MEl5WVB5eVVXUW1NY3p3aThMNjE3VVYtMTlybGpIMA?oc=5
- [8] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-marines-uss-tripoli-seized-iranian/?id=132196152
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638762-israel-blood-feud-us-iran-james-webb/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260420221202mpn
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/dxw/2026/04-20/10607342.shtml
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/4c7f703fb14b4f41ad1af9f68fb3055c/c.html
- [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75kg0vdxyro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-senate-banking-committee-hearing.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/638768-trump-iran-threats-acceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxQZklJTEJXMTV5c3o3REtYRTJCTmFRRVFWZEYzY2p2OEtGSTc2S3BnUVBLcmVDanltVGpvUVR1OWUydnJONTdETElIampPT1pCeXpiaVM0bXl4Tnk4YWtLQTdGM04tekZDUlg2SHdXX0lCNHBGSjlteUpJR05HbXRCV0NXNFZVNkpTay1sTGxoZXJ3ckhVRG5ZOVM0NWNTTDlybUdsbnlJTE1nMHdIZmpJbXJvbHF5VmNZZ1NwUEppOG8?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/israel-never-talked-me-into-the-war-with-iran-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-israel-iran-war-october-7-b2961183.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420214421sFT
2026-04-20
2026-04-20
进展要点
- 美国可能强化军事部署，同时保持谈判窗口，但威胁使用经济制裁。
- 伊朗或采取不对称报复，如封锁海峡或支持代理人攻击。
- 国际社会呼吁克制，但调解努力面临美伊互不信任挑战。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀压力
谈判停滞 / 地缘不确定性增加 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
伊朗强硬回应 / 地区供应中断 / 能源市场波动 / 股市调整
大国博弈加剧 / 全球风险溢价上升 / 资产重新定价
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420083047QIP
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOdlRGMC1MdHFSUm5aa0tZbDA1NDF6d3Rpb0RLNm1SNFF0eGl6YUY3WWJHM011bnFYZEdFX2ltay1yZzY5X0lSaENVM0M2bzUwUUhOZHd4VmEtaElwdndWa3J5cjc4MnRfTk53RUlhUGJyQ1NidEt5cVRFbGhkX0VLaUpn0gGHAUFVX3lxTFBWQUkyUERmREFYWGc2Yk5OSy11Rm9Ed3VZSlpIaEppTC1aVGZHdmJ5bHE3cU9hRzAtSjFPWEwtVWNMQjc2MWtwbWJadzZFaGNMOF9FRlVEeE1mbXdzZWpwbnEwSFdFZjJjYmwzQU1DSzRxTC1Kc2VzeUdKV25uVV9HWlZmTk5nWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260420/2abb8511885f4948a0bdb0526b5aae77/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjzy35825o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606799.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-confirms-us-seized-iranian-vessel-says-it-will-retaliate-soon-/3911687
- [7] https://globalnews.ca/news/11808120/iran-oil-prices-strait-of-hormuz-standoff
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-vows-response-to-us-seizure-of-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/19/us-forces-attack-and-seize-iranian-ship-touska-near-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638742-us-fires-iranian-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg4jnn131qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114330-tramp-zaaviv-pro-perehoplenna-iranskogo-sudna-amerikanskimi-vms-v-omanskij-zatoci.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-19/estados-unidos-intercepta-un-petrolero-irani-que-trataba-de-superar-el-estrecho-de-ormuz.html
- [14] https://orf.at/stories/3427365
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260419/c7286c8315d6457eb38862da3bdb061f/c.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420082541zWf
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606779.shtml
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-seized-iranian-flagged-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOanFJd19CUnZMSkRITFo3bmh0OGdPN2hKM2x0V1ZDcGpvSU0tck56YU9nZlY3aWJJdFRsNzVEeDBnLXEyV21BWnI0MUFKTjYtel96T3N1ZzczRGEydWJrWDVoZWprS09qMDJacVVqVVlZX2E4dU9ocmNyd1V6OFdEUkY5X29ORU1UZHRkZjY1aU1CRHlS?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/638736-us-seizes-iranian-flagged-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-19
2026-04-19
进展要点
- 美国可能扩大对伊朗的制裁和军事行动，以施压其重新开放海峡。
- 伊朗可能寻求外部支持或采取进一步军事回应，对抗美国封锁。
- 全球主要经济体可能干预以稳定石油市场，如释放战略储备。
关联路径
伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀风险上升
美伊紧张升级 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
美国登检伊朗船只 / 地缘风险加剧 / 石油供应担忧 / 市场波动增加
地区冲突扩大 / 全球风险情绪恶化 / 资产重新定价
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/19/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-date-set-for-us-talks-hormuz-strait-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-fully-closes-strait-of-hormuz-over-us-blockade/article70879044.ece
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE1PclNJckZUN0o5SXVGa1REVkhfVG9wZUx6T2E4Z1R0SkpmWW9MdE5fU2RaaEhpaGt2dk9Ucm5lLURRV085S3hfb1hWSl9TdjRKc2t4WFZqSHcxeTNqbjI4UHVDczlINHRpcktodGFCLS1ZN3pDN0ZuZ2dn?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-iran-war-end-052157501.html
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/more-than-1-000-tel-aviv-homes-left-uninhabitable-by-iran-war-mayor/3911064
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114122-tramp-obgovoriv-u-situacijnij-kimnati-krizu-sodo-ormuzkoi-protoki-axios.html
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/18/nx-s1-5789852/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-tenuously-holds
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2631x6nelo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638685-us-board-iran-vessels/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sklykav-terminovu-naradu-cherez-zahrozu-viiny-z-iranom-zmi
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3427284
- [12] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/18/69e3c454fc6c839d028b459f-video.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-face-au-blocus-am%C3%A9ricain
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaWhWNHdua3F2cEE3RVNzZFNHV1o5N0RsOFFybkxtOThyWm5BZ2MzNXRsYTFuVnJHREp1LVotYWJidXc1T2NqM0RzM2NMQmtNdXlyQ1ViZ0RhaEJRckJIVDY2bURJZXpfMW5hZTlWT0F4VGlsdUVRYnlOYlVXNERxWG9IeUN4S2ZZUmJGUkJkUzAwY1FsQ1c3NVFRQWo5N0Rq?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-over-us-blockade-of-its-ports?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-hints-resuming-attacks-045633309.html
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-strait-to-close-until-us-lifts-naval-blockade/3910961
- [18] https://orf.at/stories/3427249
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114099-vijskovi-ssa-gotuutsa-do-visadki-na-sudna-povazani-z-iranom-wsj.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
2026-04-18
2026-04-18
进展要点
- 美国可能继续对伊朗施压，直到达成协议，封锁措施或持续。
- 欧洲计划加速多国行动保障霍尔木兹海峡航行自由，凸显与美国政策分歧。
- 中国坚守台海主权立场，可能采取进一步反制措施，需关注外交动态。
- 全球对石油供应安全的关注上升，可能推动更多能源安全倡议。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡开放 / 石油供应增加 / 油价下跌 / 通胀缓解、股市上涨
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 避险资产需求上升
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘紧张缓解 / 风险资产上涨、油价承压
台海紧张 / 避险情绪 / 美元黄金走强、风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/how-50-days-of-iran-war-led-to-loss-of-50-billion-worth-of-oil?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260417/2d185ad19a1a47de86f5fc1979224deb/c.html
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009552315
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNUzlVaVRtODBnRGVTaG1TUzFDNG9KN2pZMEZxdmMzMU9QemsydzVmLXZXRmROZnBGbjZDYTBtTU1pV3lJWHRBWUNzTkJVR0tuejR0eHBDNWRLUDVCQTNuMzRDbE9zeTJpbkotRjVRaExWc3loZ1lyUlgtRVB2MUNmUDdCemYxLTVWQmhCUXJhbmU2SDNoU1duS1pRVDhQUzk3SjB6NDRnTldDS0pRLTRNLWlkazFMWDVTZ01yaEhKbVhqYm8?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/stocks-surge-oil-prices-plummet-134523237.html
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/editorial/quick-take/2026/Apr/17/quick-take-dial-i-for-hormuz
- [7] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/tramp-dumayu-mirnoe-soglashenie-s-iranom-budet-cherez-den-dva
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/17/world-reacts-to-the-opening-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-amid-us-iran-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg045z73z1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-to-accelerate-effort-secure-hormuz-despite-donald-trump-order-to-stay-away/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260417/8f9f2d58ec6b4645bb2039f88bd37eaa/c.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/oil-tumbles-nearly-15-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-completely-open
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOZGV0aXlsUV9hejJ5LVBuU3BramFsdS14V2YwVG8zcGRtOW9WWlZjQnkyU1I4bHVuZFRrdnB3VlplemJPaDM0NUt4Ql9qRDF1SzlFZnUteXVncGI4MGk1bW5VQUhYMDVpdUdIQzZfcEtocTFRUXpWNmk0NlNQanRrSTZ4a3g?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260418/1f1df6c278ae404fbac5646e4671ca71/c.html
- [15] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-plunge-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-completely-open-trump-says-regime-has-agreed-to-indefinitely-suspend-nuclear-program-134154875.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/4/17/aje-onl-tt_irn_kharg_av_v3-170426?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/traders-place-760-million-bet-on-falling-oil-ahead-of-hormuz-announcement?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009551315
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
进展要点
- G7准备采取措施缓解战争经济影响，可能协调能源储备释放。
- 国际能源署已表态准备再次释放战略石油储备，应对供应冲击。
- 中国稳健GDP增长或支撑亚洲地区货币政策保持相对宽松。
- 美国军事动员增加，国防预算可能上调，影响财政政策。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油和化肥供应中断 / 全球通胀上升和增长放缓 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌和股市上涨 / 风险情绪改善
俄罗斯空袭升级 / 欧洲安全风险上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 避险情绪升温
中国GDP增长强劲 / 全球宏观信心提振 / 风险资产反弹 / 抵消部分地缘负面影响
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-putrajaya-malaysia
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-no-nuclear-weapons-negotiations-may-resume-this-weekend?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-finance-minister-says-hormuz-204128014.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQRmlydkxwa0Vfd1Fvc0JaYjdqWjhfLU13OExTZ3oxdWRIYU5Tak1TY2I2UUNXVC0tZXhNME43T1I5aTllYUpDTHNYVGZvNks1ZThvbUExb1lIWTFJRWhuNmNORjRKdlZ6OUdqS2ZJampPd3JIcGttTlZtRmhEZklfOTJWVFp5c2hj0gGOAUFVX3lxTFB4UnY2ZHZJbFBPNDdwUVFiczQ1dW1NaWxCak0xMHpxb1gtcnVHaWY2QTFDcVZoclJiNjNrbVVtVHBGOTNlczRRXzZQeTJoWS0xUWJSZnFRZG9rN0dRV3UwWGtYTjZpYWMzbFpIOGVNMkdDZS1YaTRBWmRRblI1dlZ3WkI3c3JKZ2lOZDh3ZHc?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/638507-iran-war-fertilizers-famine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/10-day-lebanon-israel-ceasefire-announced-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/f13262ef761049358c15786f1e02ef5f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/08b82853835e4380a67c6de63981ce96/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNWHpSTjlBOFZyYUZXaEdfNGNaM2NkZ0VvRktZT2paVnpJbkdWbk5PdVRkU1VUREJRbFRPVlNNRnlObEJ6Y2phV1dxVkZ3aVZ6TlRvUl9mZmQwT2haYXo2Q3UtTng1WHBBTnh6SS05UDJFVEZqdDgxOWtScWRDZENQYVBTYWxYMTVUWmZHV0FPNUVBbWczVnpTdWhfRHJmWHNLMkJGUTQ0QnRLeFpHREh4cFh2ZmUwRWR50gG-AUFVX3lxTE4ybmRKM0txaHgtcmEyZmhCZVdHcjEtTXM2bnBMdHBXSmZZY2hrLUxlaGw4bXYzbTNsTWVRRnNyeVZDYmhVZ0tnSUxTZGxPMFRTZlU3SUNkNGthUEs1UkhjbXhGWS1iMmlfUzRRNlA0YzZZN1NhSjJNdkRjd0h1RDRQd2pSNjVNZ1JmRXI0NjBuTHZ4VF9BSENBeDU
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/us-to-target-iran-linked-ships-worldwide-beyond-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-us-blockade-iranian-ports-053249833.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/us-general-clarifies-iranian-ports-under-blockade-not-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638501-pentagon-us-carmakers-weapons-production/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/105f7d3562064f4e99b35cc5fdd9723a/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/cca4a32d56a74796a5da62065ceadc15/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE10Q0lhRXhMX2hjajFNX1BFeVFWcVhlY1FjelE0b2tnUHBmUmtwMHBHeEJGdWhVQWlKcXRrZl9HOHlQUWVFd1dHSDJCa3NldEQ2dm1HZU5oeVRKaTlyRmI2a3JVbXBta3N3VmZTQ0NRWlp4LVpVZ2tNUFRRTndDUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQMHRMcmlCcHJaRmxTSTU3M2syUkZmZUNpWlhuNU5hMDFtV1FDbHZVaWJ6SnhVcnc2a0RxUDBaQWpBcTNQWmZHd0JEUzZnREZWYVlHdmxYWGRXWTBMRkJIby1jbXpIOVhvZFV0LTlDenNSMWZvdzdBWTZHX2Zvd180OHlCeWFyd0VDQVJKN2tkQklyM204ZFNj0gGcAUFVX3lxTFBlMkdFLUVmNXlCa3QwOVRyZHZCUWo0enpQV2RWYkxWWjd1a1A4QXdqQjFhOTJxZWJGaFNVMDgwQmdjZ21Ccy00UHhMMVluZTVtTEdHdzlZR09vdXA3OXNiNWd6ajVyUnQ1MjFQOW5WVkZGeW8ySzdFdlNhcGNXaXdlWjUxVS1qY2dFUnBqZXZ6UHpWU1BXbWtNaTNrVQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/hegseth-calls-on-iran-to-choose-wisely-says-us-military-locked-and-loaded?utm_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/trump-says-israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-temporary-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNOS1zX0NqaTM5Qmg3YmpLX2h0MVBNUXNGTzl5bEdtVFR5NWNzcXJveG1JLU5YS2t5QVhVd2ZZTnQtdWlvSWhIdjd5aGVnMjcxSG96Y2h5VTY4ZkNJWG0wUFlnaXFJLUVSMmVqeHdLT1RNQU1oRDNlRzl4eV9tcWxtZC1GM0xKYUoxTy1KQUttWmZUMm8?oc=5
2026-04-16
2026-04-16
进展要点
- 英国央行行长表示不会急于加息，因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击使利率决策困难（BBC News报道）。
- IMF建议各国审慎调整财政政策，以应对中东战事冲击，特别关注债务管理。
- 美国财政部宣布不再延长对俄罗斯和伊朗原油的制裁豁免，可能收紧全球原油供应。
- 各国央行可能因地缘风险延迟货币政策正常化，支撑风险资产。
关联路径
伊朗航运威胁 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力增加
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应风险 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求上升 / 市场波动加剧
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险溢价变化 / 风险资产（股市）与避险资产交替波动
IMF财政警告 / 政策收紧预期 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 资产价格调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / The Independent / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Ukrinform / BBC News (Top) / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ABC News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strait-of-hormuz-israel-lebanon-b2957846.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-16/10604577.shtml
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/c69fe273d1b744b2944108ca02a8801a/c.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/ukraines-zelenskyy-pursues-more-arms-deals-with-allies-to-help-check-russias-invasion?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQbHV0TWtpcXI1MGV4QlVkX2FES0hra0VSdExoT2V1Z1BqdXctZjF2VHpUYUhRRkJZS1hQekVCUzJ4RVRTSWNmcTZhaDlHUk5jdE5rZXlRNTZ6TUxYb3V2Z25XOHN1VWlrd1o0dXM2NG0yOVZvSnhLMGxQVFFYLXNOWks1UXNBNFRhYWxiTnNiYk9GaXpJaE9zSmE1bGo0d21WY25BLUhOeS0wV3BENzNRaHhR?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4113009-combined-attack-on-ukraine-air-defense-downs-20-missiles-349-drones.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5330l73y2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/us-military-turned-back-six-ships-first-24-hours-iranian-port-blockade-rcna331828
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260416030852ajh
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-the-uk-warn-the-iran-war-distracts-from-ukraine-and-oil-price-rises-help-russia/a-76797004?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-blockade-iran-talks-fail-021511400.html
- [12] https://abcnews.com/video/132069550
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/iran-warns-us-naval-blockade-threatens-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/31b1cba1e11b4a908fb2652045db2bc4/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-16/10604568.shtml
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/us/money/stock-market-today-wall-street-iran-war-b2958559.html
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/us-stocks-hit-all-time-high-on-middle-east-optimism?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-high-iran-war-rcna331900
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNMHBnOGZlNTdlN1lMMWVITElFc3FtNVdTZFA1b3k0NkU5NFFVN1Jod3gtSDRJTzJVQk5McDB2S2FKbzBTTkZQUm5OREVkQXhHbnl6UnpfLWVTVmU0cmF5NEttbHVkdGh2R3d3MjZaWUFfbEJJSGR4NWhtSGVxcTV4eE44SjRRelpPeFZ0WEZhY3lmOHlKblZyaEd0T0gwd01sNmRN0gGoAUFVX3lxTE43b1AxT0NfZTdSY2kyMGJZSkZ1Yy15R2VOQUhsVTJFYTBJU2JDRlFEbWNET1VlSDc2MUxEUHZxR1lGc0ZNTW43bTd0Vko0aFhXNDlBekdOX0F2dGlfNEpSWUo5NHpwZUVTNlVqVHBpRWQ2REVQaUItdTg5YXpISUhTdzg1aERRcHE2RHJ6OEF6eURQSkx1aFNMbE5NWF96dWt3dDJONUtueg?oc=5
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-mixed-after-trump-orders-hormuz-blockade-against-iran-145712025.html
2026-04-15
2026-04-15
进展要点
- 美联储与欧央行货币政策短期仍将保持谨慎，高度关注地缘冲突对通胀（上行）与增长（下行）的双向影响。
- 美国对伊朗政策处于关键窗口：4月19日制裁豁免到期后是否恢复制裁，将显著影响全球石油供应预期。
- 需关注主要经济体（如韩国）因进口通胀压力加大，其国内货币政策可能被迫做出应对。
- 欧洲央行执行委员会成员菲利普·R·莱恩就欧元区经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。
关联路径
美伊谈判重启预期 / 中东紧张缓解 / 油价下跌、股市上涨、避险资产承压
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突升级 / 美国封锁伊朗港口 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨、通胀预期升温 / 央行政策压力增大、风险资产承压
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油贸易受阻 / 增长预期下调（IMF）、通胀预期上调 / 滞胀风险升温
来源
Xinhua Finance / RT News / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Business) / The Korea Times / ECB Press Releases / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Fed
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/638432-israel-lebanon-forever-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415085953vI1
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr9qrnp821o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/20260415/import-prices-post-sharpest-rise-in-over-28-years-in-march-amid-middle-east-crisis?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260414~b312adeb55.en.pdf
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNenlEY3B4eEpDckI2bllJNTJVNzU1SDNMYjlPTzlpTC11UzA0TTRGUWstSnlSeWdsZURiNjBIODNxRmR6d01kbXUtUl95Q1FrSmFpOE9hQVRnZ2QzQWsyMkVnRkIxdHdrWVZqMzNfbXgza0EtZElMaHEyQlZtZzBsR1ppZWVvWWV2R2w5YUZ3ZkVWQdIBlwFBVV95cUxOb0dhOFBmYUVaMFFOMVZISkMzVWk1N2oxZmxiR3QxbjBqZlJXNlBwQ3VVX2VCdWpDbmEtMXFYcEJoYmJiVkJBMXU4bm1LemR5YzRhVHBGcDBQRzJNVkw3a2ZyRDJYSk1nZTdsRS1ZUjNab25aWG10V1RKdllNbFM3bTJ1SDhkN1J3bXlPS2dBbVVpLVRaM3VJ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/14/how-us-blockade-on-iran-will-worsen-energy-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260415/98576a4fba914ded8bf1975303f65b5b/c.html
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260414a.htm
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604150910068Su
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPZ0FvbkthQTRrQTJWUmN4N3ZBRVd5SlFwX2JVYjhEQkY4MTRRLVRVcUxYbHkwRDItOGhKcVNWbDFkOFFuSmhZcnFRTEJRU01NMnlTYjM0TUxjUTN1S0pwODFoZno0Q0pta0FqMl9mQ2U3Qm1qdHJwdG5sSENtVGw0dHNVT0I4Y0RRak5iWWNzTGVqZ3FxYVlIVQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-during-hormuz-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638423-russia-lavrov-china-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260415/us-iran-may-resume-talks-this-week-despite-port-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415065334Y9r
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063604GEG
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415064308ULl
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415062259Y0J
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415064537UqS
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063507Wuh
2026-04-14
2026-04-14
进展要点
- 美国可能继续施压伊朗以达成协议，封锁措施或持续
- 中国货币政策保持宽松，信贷增长支持经济稳定
- 各国或出台补贴和措施应对高油价冲击
- 联合国报告警示战争对全球贫困的影响，可能推动外交干预
关联路径
美国封锁伊朗港口 / 霍尔木兹海峡石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加
中国经济数据积极 / 信贷增长 / 局部市场情绪改善，但被全球风险抵消
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/trump-says-us-military-has-blockaded-iranian-ports-to-pressure-tehran?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260414075312mTn
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9lTGVSaGRfSFNsX1ByeERMLWoxdWREdGtBVXNaQy1EeUdZeU9RSVZYY1UxcVh6NzRadndia294eTlGbUtLOVl3N2wySTZ6aVZlMWtjRmlWNF9rVG81NDltb2ZJTU9QWVRGS1JaUUlPaHNZdjA?oc=5
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/trump-says-iranian-ships-will-be-eliminated-as-us-naval-blockade-begins?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260413/9b39653c127e47d3aa204c72aa1d20fb/c.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/638355-us-israeli-war-poverty-un/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-enforce-blockade-gulf-115534084.html
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-maritime-restrictions-increase-economic-pressure-on-iran/a-76760110?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260413/42286c72c63d41fba01b7147f7cb9dd5/c.html
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/physical-oil-hits-fresh-record-high-near-150-a-barrel-as-hormuz-crisis-worsens?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413235728qQL
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/energy-prices-rise-despite-jones-act-suspension-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638318-iran-israel-us-war-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-passenger-plane-destroyed-us-154212642.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-warns-iran-ships-to-steer-clear-of-blockade/live-76758809?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE90S1NYeU1HLWdoVmJNRXQtb2t2cUxuc1JObDV0bmlLbXVTZTM5Qko0YmVJZk1hZUxoeG5hUmNpZzVPdzdFS1JEdTNHSWFiNUFOZnQzQ1dxd2hQVzFCamdEb0tmTWtSUE9ZZ0U3TEJkdFNXWTQwaEtUTm90MnhvYVU?oc=5
2026-04-13
2026-04-13
进展要点
- 美联储等主要央行：高油价带来的“二次通胀”风险可能推迟降息进程，甚至引发加息讨论。
- 美国政策：特朗普政府可能借机推动国内能源增产，并寻求国会授权或盟友支持以强化封锁。
- 伊朗政策：可能加速核活动作为谈判筹码，或寻求与中国、俄罗斯签订长期能源安全协议。
关联路径
地缘军事冲突（封锁） / 石油供应物理中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策转鹰 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊对峙升级 / 地区安全风险溢价飙升 / 全球避险情绪主导 / 资金流入美元、美债、黄金 / 风险资产遭抛售
能源危机与通胀担忧 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 消费者信心受挫 / 全球经济衰退风险增加 / 周期性股票和大宗商品（除能源外）走弱
单边军事行动引发国际秩序动荡 / 长期投资信心受损 & 供应链重组加速 / 全球增长前景蒙阴 / 市场波动率（VIX）持续高位
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413082525uXU
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/13/iran-war-live-us-military-to-block-iranian-port-traffic-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260412-trump-orders-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-13/10602662.shtml
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-says-it-will-start-blockade-of-all-ships-going-to-and-from-iran-on-monday/article70855422.ece
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-armee-americaine-annonce-un-blocus-naval-de-tous-les-ports-iraniens-a-partir-de-lundi-apres-midi_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Praesident-Trump-kuendigt-Blockade-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-an-id30705712.html
- [8] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-12/trump-anuncia-su-propio-bloqueo-naval-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-y-las-negociaciones-quedan-en-el-aire.html
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-strait-of-hormuz-naval-blockade/live-76750859?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/strait-to-crisis-trump-orders-hormuz-blockage-after-talks-sink/articleshow/130210828.cms
- [11] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/12/69dbaae6fc6c83b0518b4570.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/trump-announces-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz-after-iran-talks-collapse-over-nuclear-demands-133605926.html
- [13] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=200747
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn781z4lgg4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-abc-news-breakfast-36
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413075746ide
- [17] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-ordonne-un-blocus-du-detroit-d-ormuz-et-menace-les-soutiens-de-l-iran-apres-l-echec-des-negociations_6676633_3210.html
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260412-trump-says-us-will-begin-blockading-the-strait-of-hormuz
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/12/trump-announces-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-after-us-iran-peace-talks-end?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-12
2026-04-12
进展要点
- 美国可能继续军事施压，以削弱伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制
- 伊朗立场强硬，谈判中坚持海峡控制权，可能延长冲突
- 乌克兰停火执行困难，双方互指违反，和平进程受阻
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘紧张升级 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 风险资产抛售
军事行动加剧 / 石油供应中断 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场波动加大
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412091323e3R
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/12/iran-war-live-historic-face-to-face-talks-with-us-continue-in-islamabad?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens/article70852336.ece
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-pause-for-now-disagreements-remain?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602264.shtml
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-negociations-entre-teheran-et-washington-se-poursuivent-toute-tentative-de-navires-militaires-de-franchir-le-detroit-d-ormuz-fera-l-objet-d-une-reaction-severe-menacent-les-gardiens-de-la-revolution_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-usa-islamabad-strasse-hormus
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426624
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iran-hold-historic-direct-negotiations-in-pakistan-as-wars-fragile-ceasefire-holds
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260411-washington-affirme-commencer-le-d%C3%A9minage-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/navy-tests-hormuz-blockade-expert-172203991.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4111582-dva-korabli-vms-ssa-pocali-rozminuvanna-ormuzkoi-protoki-cnn.html
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-irans-marine-warnt-us-kriegsschiff-vor-durchquerung-a-e7da4550-99e4-4487-b95d-6815467ea8a6
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412090741Hbt
- [16] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens?utm_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260411-iran-us-negotiations-underway-in-pakistan-us-says-strait-of-hormuz-being-cleared
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/numbers-us-thrashed-military-targets-103019697.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/11/en-direct-benyamin-netanyahou-soutient-qu-israel-a-aneanti-les-programmes-nucleaire-et-balistique-iraniens-les-etats-unis-affirment-que-deux-de-leurs-navires-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz_6676633_3210.html
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602257.shtml
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
进展要点
- 美联储可能因通胀超预期而加快加息步伐。
- 美国关税政策面临法律挑战，贸易关系不确定性上升。
- 地缘冲突可能促使更多国家采取保护主义措施。
- 能源价格上涨加剧全球通胀压力，央行政策趋紧。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 加息预期
地缘紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
美国CPI超预期 / 美联储政策收紧 / 全球资产波动
贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求上升 / 市场情绪谨慎
来源
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
参考链接
- [1] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4111356-invaders-strike-highrise-in-sumy-with-drone-casualties-reported.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/10/us-iran-negotiations-in-islamabad-what-to-expect?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260410-iran-sets-preconditions-ahead-of-ceasefire-talks-as-vance-warns-tehran-not-to-play-us
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPQ2d4akxuNWFVSkhyeUJpOHlJdExpc2ZkVW44NjNiVGJjdExCV3Nnam1iUklTTndtQ0xQOFB4UFA2VEtnX2lmSElETWxIeFpBQXdyQlR0NXBRNHZiWDN4ZHhINnRLSjhHdWNHMnlubmR5VWxpOUFuM1NtVkFCVENOMUlR?oc=5
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/trump-s-latest-global-tariffs-challenged-in-federal-court-friday
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-malgre-l-annonce-d-une-treve-pascale-le-service-de-securite-d-ukraine-appelle-la-population-a-rester-vigilante_6676836_3210.html
- [7] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-10/los-ultimos-ataques-israelies-en-libano-y-el-bloqueo-irani-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-ponen-en-peligro-las-negociaciones-de-paz.html
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-kyjiws-truppen-attackieren-russische-oelterminals-a-d4e9f8b2-892e-464c-9f38-5e258e66d585
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-are-loading-warships-with-best-weapons-trump-hints-at-big-op-if-iran-us-talks-fail/articleshow/130175216.cms
- [10] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-friday-10-april-2026-b2955434.html
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/05d6312f9e134201bb0b6f53f49d0ddf/c.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/10/new-tensions-emerge-before-us-iran-war-ceasefire-talks-in-pakistan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQN2p1TmlnSW85azJoOTM2MXFtSjNHS1RpN2piNXBkeUVGdHpORnd6TGkwVVJKTGh3UTc0dVY1d0NzaUJ4bzZqNXJ0QVJkaUFjNDZpRmdrWjd1UTV4eXNFTHhwUFFxSHBaVU82RVBDaWtieGxGNnMxVnMxbU80aUo1SGd3U2hMUUlyaWc1LWJyZXVDZ0VDVFhQdFUzd0dwSWRuS01ral9NS2U1RkE2NlN4cE5sNS0?oc=5
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-le-president-du-parlement-iranien-exige-un-cessez-le-feu-au-liban-et-le-deblocage-des-actifs-avant-toute-negociation_6676633_3210.html
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260410-us-and-iran-prepare-for-ceasefire-talks-as-netanyahu-authorises-negotiations-with-lebanon
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/inflation-trump-iran-war-usa-b2955258.html
- [17] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/sensex-jumps-919pts-as-west-asia-peace-plan-moves-ahead/articleshow/130182187.cms
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
进展要点
- 全球央行可能因油价下跌暂缓加息，但供应链风险支撑通胀预期。
- 美国贸易政策趋紧，金属进口限制或影响全球供应链和关税。
- 地缘风险降低可能减少避险需求，影响黄金和美元走势。
- 欧盟面临能源危机，政策或转向多样化供应和储备建设。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌 / 股市上涨 / 避险资产需求下降
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
俄乌停火 / 地区紧张缓解 / 避险需求下降 / 风险资产反弹 / 欧元稳定
特朗普贸易政策 / 全球贸易紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 美元走强 / 大宗商品承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5776818/wall-street-stocks-oil-trump-iran-ceasefire
- [2] https://unn.ua/news/putin-oholosyv-velykodnie-peremyria-z-ukrainoiu
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-us-war-west-asia-conflict-live-updates-on-april-9-2026/article70840935.ece
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/d037e456c7be42ed80a590404ec1bdde/c.html
- [5] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/strait-hormuz-shipping-traffic-effectively-standstill-iran-ceasefire-rcna267391
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260410000451315
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410083045iUE
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/this-is-america/2026/4/9/us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-over-whats-next?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/637877-iran-war-eu-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.dw.com/de/waffenruhe-trump-stellt-annäherung-mit-iran-in-aussicht/a-76701125?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-10/10601269.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxOUG43N0U2MXF3b3RKdnkwaTRPeDZhWm1QZjJBYUhyMHB1N0pRdFgxaXZMWGFwT2dSSHFiRHFhdFZEQm14UVc5RlRaclNSR0dHS2I3ei1IeVE1b2NRUjE5NDNqd01SQ1lyTUZZam5WbmI0NlEzNmdTWUxFaWhSdmxzQndlYk1aOTFITHdISHB4RWZQTVlnZnMwLVhTV1RWUFFvSkdlUlNaeUYxMl9qRG9TdThRWGFieDJISndiei1UTGczUkxYYTBOTW1RNA?oc=5
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/f1a5072f1da04bd588110bf9c7bb5a9f/c.html
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4110989-putin-announces-easter-ceasefire.html
- [15] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/04/09/2026-06960/strengthening-actions-taken-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-steel-and-copper-into-the-united-states
- [16] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-pohodyvsia-na-velykodnie-peremyria-yake-oholosyv-putin-ta-zaiavyv-pro-hotovnist-do-dzerkalnykh-krokiv
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/putin-declares-ceasefire-in-ukraine-for-orthodox-easter/article70844673.ece
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/be450cc8cf7d4952b19e8c0e2a8b768d/c.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410080207ixS
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/637873-america-has-reached-limits/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-09
2026-04-09
进展要点
- 美联储关注战争对经济的双向风险
- 美国对北约政策不确定性增加
- 中方呼吁恢复海峡通航，发挥建设性作用
- 巴基斯坦斡旋停火推动谈判
关联路径
海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策响应
美伊谈判 / 地缘风险缓解 / 油价下跌和风险资产上涨
美元下跌 / 全球流动性改善 / 股市上涨
北约解体风险 / 地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/c45d7601476d458ea57a85851efbc952/c.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600672.shtml
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637771-us-isral-iran-ceasefire-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQM0M4QVNLMzRVZGI1YTVINHdJUWZFYU5DbEs5NjBxNVNkXzU2YUw0VDNlMXE3NTg2ZTRucjRaLXVBc19aaTF5RTA5Q1ZFOTlpZ2NYVUpqUFhMMERzRW5SdVV5dzUyajZLaVowRFR6WTM0Sks5MFFsb3NlYnRyR1lsTUdLaVBsejlaamtFcEUtODZHcjk4cjBIa2tnekhrZWpFTDlj?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260409070324dDx
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/trump-administration-says-it-is-mulling-nato-withdrawal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/4294f804a81c42af86e0af9172b98888/c.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/04-09/10600695.shtml
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/65e4ed07bbbd4ed4a2d01a8c03640431/c.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/637763-why-iran-looks-winner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQUllNR1JLdmFuV2FFOTVNQVc0UEFwWkhtbXVxTEJFcVA0bWVKenJJYWlRSElYaDU1WDg4VkVJajZiQ1hNd0d5VWFPNE40YlZYYWhPN0Z5TnZsbksydlplVmU1VWc0Ulc5cEd6MTk0MzhCSWZPX0ViQWc5eldQTUNiMlFmbWRpbC1hWDBRallTeFNsTUpHOWh6Wk0yT0FxOEcta1Y2WWl3?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/8/trump-has-found-his-iran-off-ramp-but-at-what-cost?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/fae39f2b949e4afd9c1d92b275cbc5f2/c.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-09/10600691.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600689.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600685.shtml
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/560122b87c614361b1028d6d3d7c9d1d/c.html
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c1abc49b173845e99a5c8994d1391518/c.html
- [19] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/e435b5af7fff443c85477fa3acb93775/c.html
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c7c27550cf9147f6845906a92171ec14/c.html
2026-04-08
2026-04-08
进展要点
- 美国政策：未来两周聚焦谈判，可能以“临时停火”换取海峡开放，但长期战略模糊。
- 伊朗政策：以开放海峡换取军事压力暂缓，但坚持永久停战与核权利等核心立场。
- 以色列政策：对美伊直接谈判持怀疑态度，可能寻求维持军事威慑或单独行动。
关联路径
中东冲突烈度 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航状况 / 全球石油实际供应与预期 / 油价 / 全球通胀与央行政策路径
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘政治风险溢价 / 全球避险情绪 / 黄金、美元、国债等资产价格
冲突外溢风险 / 区域稳定与全球贸易通道安全 / 供应链成本与全球增长预期 / 周期性资产表现
美国内政治对伊政策分歧 / 政策连贯性与可信度 / 美元资产长期吸引力与风险溢价
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOQWdMR2RQZEpSSnE3R1BPd1dPVVNvX21tYjhCbFZjcVJRMkozZVFxc3NKUFZid19fMTBZR2Zia3lhbmtLbDlXV21fSERfY3JNYkhEMktlNHZKVXdzaEk4UGlkcDBienpZWjl2OHpwQW9pRnBBaUh2aU5sQlBsVlNkM1FLLVowRXB4WFhWc2g3dmQxYjZzelJzNWhXRlROZjFmN2psUkJWbS1NcHF0?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260408000339Jrv
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637586-us-strikes-irans-kharg-island-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8433834/as-israel-serang-pulau-kharg-hingga-jembatan-di-iran-jelang-deadline-trump
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600068.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/d18e8a525d8f4ff289dc27c811313025/c.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/7/trump-agrees-to-pause-attacks-on-iran-if-strait-of-hormuz-opens?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4110231-slidom-za-ssa-izrail-tez-pogodivsa-na-dva-tizni-pripiniti-bojovi-dii-proti-iranu-cnn.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/08/irans-aussenminister-kuendigt-oeffnung-der-strasse-von-hormus-an
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r40y3rv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/iran-war-trump-us-israel-oil-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-announces-two-week-ceasefire/live-76700191?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604072357426WW
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600071.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxPTm1PeUtWSkM2Q01OaUZfME5YM3F4WDNnVXQtT01LQUFWbGNEWkF6ZjZDdWNsNDQ0bFBybUxhSEo5UUV0Vm1TS3BhUXNGWDZXOXJzNXRLODVqd2Z4aURvRTFqRGZDSWhLeEUyVmk5X0tqZGRfWDFvd005cXpoYUNLWFJjeU1lRkx5bmZOdHgzcjB2U0Z6SnE4Z3VSdUlWMmhYX2lVaA?oc=5
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/797d2505268b4defb0b9a7e2b0e8ddf3/c.html
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8434046/trump-tangguhkan-serangan-dewan-keamanan-iran-tangan-kita-di-pelatuk
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/trump-iran-2-week-ceasefire.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/637638-trump-iran-ceacefire-extension/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-07
2026-04-07
进展要点
- 美国政策：特朗普设最后期限施压伊朗，但内部对停火方案有分歧，军事选项仍存。
- 伊朗政策：提出停战要求但坚持永久解决方案，报复威胁表明强硬立场。
- 地区影响：海湾国家能源设施成为袭击目标，可能推动多边安全合作。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀加剧 / 央行政策收紧 / 经济增长放缓
美伊谈判破裂 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油价飙升 / 避险资产需求上升 / 股市下跌
乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设施 / 欧洲能源危机恶化 / 欧元区通胀压力 / 欧央行政策响应
伊朗内部不稳定 / 地区冲突扩散 / 石油生产国风险溢价上升 / 大宗商品波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260407000106tbx
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-wFBVV95cUxNZFFCRlBwWHNqMUpxQWFwUTVHS3Jld3BVY2ExUFNJRDNUWUx2X3FpM1dtX3dfQ1hzaEhVejlGcDZSa2hVRjZuZnNOTXFudEM4dUFlRHJWWE1PV2lfTFpoMlVCVl91ZWdEZHZPY2E4V3h3dEh6UzhoQ1JRd01DM3BsYjZLbTVDWmM5YmU0eFB0LWNINTVlenFMS0wxZ1RnZFF3U25XdlZqeGlhbzlmN3Y1c3hoYzctcHVGV05zN2hCLUJZcFBFazJzLWNkemt5d0dzdE50amU3M3NobllWTjVlTkd3UXpBbENOM3lPajMwN0xocGxPcDlEMXp0QQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599509.shtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/where-are-irans-power-plants-that-trump-has-threatened-to-destroy?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/637429-iran-night-demonstrations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5514373/irgc-selat-hormuz-tak-akan-pernah-kembali-ke-kondisi-sebelumnya
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-madschid-chademi-geheimdienstchef-revolutionsgarden
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4109748-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-novorossiysk-oil-terminal-and-be12-amphibious-aircraft.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224226NBH
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQMnpFd1FWT0JmYXNZMmd5MTVzdm84bnEtS1N3Wm44a0Nrb2NCV2NXeG5DY2hsSWJYYWFFYjB5SksyMWNfdEJPQXhka1hDTGxPUGQzaWNVSEd1bkt4UWJUTEFsTEJFeDhiT1ZTT0dRejV6M2NfMTh6TWxDN2M5YU85UWR3aFU3Q2RpcTRQTHZyYnBMT3hIMk5jdnlvMHphWFUyZXZvMU5YS1I1V3JlOVQ3S1RR0gG3AUFVX3lxTFBTWEEtS0pNcGZsWUdRUHVDQlJLSVJMM0gtc3ZZWldYOHZ3b1l6QUltMjlNcXBKbUxIVlFDQi1PUjd4WnFmWFp3aFZCemhwcEtVdnJsX1ppeGZGUjFtTXAzUkw1Ql9RYS0xc1J3VnFDREFxbmgtcGctQjBTWC04RXNsRWFIZk9hYm5Wa0NDM0NmdndsamxjXy1FakpSYW5hQTk
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5514365/as-israel-serang-30-universitas-di-iran-sejak-awal-konflik-28-februari
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/ukraine-strikes-russian-black-sea-energy-hub-novorossiysk?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599512.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406235051YOT
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260407000948Iak
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPeEtPRS00QThJQ3gxWUM1MXpENklRekdZWTlsZ1l0ejN6NFlwaVZ5RG9HdmdoQmxBalFHM1FlRWZfS3BMLURnSS1sc2VOUXF2OW03S3lYSW5vb0ZRVVdmX29FUkNSd3MtVzJoWjRmd2laVW13R0xCam9ESTRmZDZtUWtvcTBXaDBrVWVwWTFPOUEtT1M3MzRIS1hnTG1BMEFrX0VqRXR5azRzQlBxZm15eFktTFVYYk9lVTFoR1Vab3R0STdoLXc?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR2JlSVpraHJZeDN5MFFBOHRMLWk0VEt5NEFPSnVwa1pCTHI0eDJ3Q0tiREdpSzRGYmlCcm9wQ3pDX3lkVHZGejYwMGxDYXVnZU5OMFBEYTIyc3RDRTBWNnpfQ0phb1NMM2Nrd3JJWkw3QkVKX3J1LVRPZUZSTGtJNUhYNlBPYjBQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/6/in-maps-and-photos-five-iranian-civilian-bridges-at-risk-of-us-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224344Cz8
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxQYkg1WnlBNjRXLXdHclNNd1pyRi10LUt6VlF1TDB0UHdqUF9FYUhFQjVmZ0doQ2prUnBBYUk4a3JjalFxYjUyZmEyVk4zejR3ZDlERnM0RTJfbVVQaHBkbjYtV1VpMkRKeEYtVmdWeEh4Y3pKYjNIZ0o1WXNSMzVjU2VQc1MzUFNrUEpQS2Zacmxod1Z0LUllVUd0c3FuSUp4QWxSMFVPY21tYTI4elBMSm0yTlN1WU1L0gG-AUFVX3lxTE1sU2pETk50dU5nclhCYndfWllvTXkxNk9lcjFHdnJJclItU2hUWUlMWXRBSW96R3lNdW9fSTVNaEVuZTF5cWJacjNFMWc3b1J4RFhNZGRXS0lmRjBIWENVQnFkUXJySWI5SmR6cXozVWMyYWRTZDNyTDhZMEt0YWlZajJ0UGdGaE1IRGJMckRjYzdtTnhWclc3bXR
2026-04-06
2026-04-06
进展要点
- 美国对伊朗政策转向军事威胁，可能强化制裁或直接干预，以迫使开放霍尔木兹海峡。
- OPEC+增产决策显示产油国试图平衡市场，但地缘政治风险可能限制效果。
- 伊朗可能继续不对称战略，关闭海峡和袭击能源设施，以施加压力。
关联路径
伊朗冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀上升
美伊军事对抗 / 中东不稳定 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 供应增加预期 / 油价波动 / 风险资产调整
地缘政治紧张 / 全球增长担忧 / 股市下跌和债券收益率下降
来源
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406075350GcU
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/05/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-donald-trump-repousse-l-ultimatum-adresse-a-mardi-soir-vous-allez-voir-des-ponts-et-des-centrales-electriques-s-effondrer-a-travers-tout-le-pays_6676633_3210.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-04/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/6/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-trumps-tuesday-deadline-on-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9xQUhSalZYRUpHRTR4a1dtUktxeU5ULTRnNS1vR0RONkxhaTNFZzBwOVBQbTk5Y2QxbkJoczlnaWZBcmdkWlN1cEI3WWN6T2U1ZFRwYnVUZDBWZw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4109433-tramp-ogolosiv-novij-krajnij-termin-dla-iranu-sob-rozblokuvati-ormuzku-protoku.html
- [7] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13b44e4d4d89b5e8b4587.html
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426028
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/opec-foerderung-erdoel-iran-krise
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599292.shtml
- [11] https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story?id=131744086
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0q6wdzp1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/ofitsialno-ukraina-nanesla-udar-po-zavodu-lukoila-bolee-chem-v-1000-km-ot-linii-soprikosnoveniya
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406091907xC4
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNa0YxRFgzNTB6RTIxbVFKbURISmpWM2R4Y1N0VUlzamhJQjU0dUdyU1YyMmJIRHpiREoxSzJlN0hFanE0OENZcWZ4WUtRVnhVRmtLb011eGxIWFd4bUd0eGhXdUptaVFjOC1sWTdsWnF3ZkdKQjdLallNZXVsOGM5SFRtVmtEWkdCRE5jcnlBU0htNndib0V0aGtXUmtIRGpiQU5pZFJJaENtWFVzZXlCX0VoZHFBdThxZHozSUR3RzhBZGM?oc=5
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13870e9cf4a79038b457f.html
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/donald-trump-iran-ultimatum-hormus
2026-04-05
2026-04-05
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步增加军事开支，推动创纪录国防预算通过。
- 美联储面临通胀压力，因地缘冲突推高油价，货币政策或趋紧。
- 中国可能出台反制措施，应对美国科技限制，影响贸易政策。
- 欧洲可能尝试调解美伊冲突，但效果有限，地区外交压力增大。
- 伊朗军方回应美国总统特朗普的48小时通牒，表示将坚定捍卫民族权利并让侵略者付出代价。
- 特朗普向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒，要求开放霍尔木兹海峡，同时美国继续搜寻失踪飞行员。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
贸易制裁 / 全球供应链风险 / 股市波动
国防支出增加 / 财政赤字扩大 / 利率压力
来源
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/watch-trump-claims-many-of-irans-military-leaders-killed-in-massive-strike-shares-video/articleshow/130029871.cms
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598980.shtml
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPOTB5bHJDZGp3M2ZVSUpJeGZnTDFvOGFhMDh6ODlDTlotQnlwVnJ4d1lPZTZCSV9CblY3V1hSeEFpOGZHVWViUEJYeVVPc0h2d3UwOUN0YXJTMG1fWm8xOTRhOG1Ld3U1eWdZY0RvX1VhbDB6RWRSZzh2YnJ6M05JQWVzMWRHWFdWQUtVdExRcU9jZ0ZPUDhJaDJkTGJIVXBFLUU3TXpaakpfSFVYOWFxYzVlTW5KTEk1ek9Zc3ZuVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429643/hari-kelam-as-israel-saat-2-jet-tempur-dan-3-drone-dilumpuhkan-iran
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/ataque-de-israel-a-petroqumicas-no-ir-deixa-ao-menos-cinco-mortos-e-170-feridos.ghtml
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-proposes-expanding-chinese-141748633.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y90jl8veyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/04/inflacao-dos-eua-deve-disparar-na-primeira-leitura-desde-a-guerra-com-o-ira.ghtml
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260404-trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-a-deal-as-search-continues-for-missing-us-pilot
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/4/tehran-psychiatric-hospital-not-usable-after-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-deal-or-face-hell/article70824622.ece
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/white-house-asks-record-breaking-15-trillion-defense/story?id=131683487
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598976.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNWkNya1ZKR25aN2tadGxuN25YX3JyY29KTGprQXpPY3ZydVBaUmdjRFdCWko4NnE1QUp5d2V6UFM3TkZRZG5ZZ1RHeUgzT1ZxS0RkcnFfcW42LTlId2xUWXNKcW9JX1BHR1pwWFEwVWNZdjMxV1FUNnI1R2V0N0ZreElnSnFVZGhXbFBVSGdERFlnSVB5NHk2UmFkeE5ZRjI3MFQ0?oc=5
- [15] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/nova-etapa-de-ataques-dos-eua-ao-ira-deve-usar-quase-todo-o-estoque-de-misseis-de-cruzeiros-disponivel-no-pais.ghtml
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/universities-hit-as-us-israel-ramp-up-attacks-on-irans-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429487/tuan-rumah-pangkalan-militer-as-dapat-ultimatum-dari-iran
- [18] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/israel-se-prepara-para-atacar-instalaes-de-energia-do-ir-e-aguarda-aprovao-dos-eua-diz-fonte.ghtml
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2k1dgz142o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-04-04
2026-04-04
进展要点
- 美联储可能因就业数据强劲而维持或加强鹰派立场，加息预期升温。
- 美国政府面临信任危机，军事政策可能更激进，增加地缘政治不确定性。
- 多国可能采取行动重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，以缓解全球石油供应压力。
- 冲突升级可能促使国际社会加大外交斡旋，但短期内难有突破。
- 美国3月份就业市场表现超出预期，新增就业岗位数量意外增长。
- 美国劳工部发布3月份就业数据，非农就业人数新增17.8万人，失业率降至4.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球贸易中断 / 经济放缓和市场避险
美国就业数据强劲 / 美联储加息预期 / 美元升值
地缘紧张 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/637187-iran-war-us-oil-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758305/iran-gulf-targets-us-israel-strike-war
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/03/inteligncia-dos-eua-alerta-que-improvvel-que-ir-reduza-bloqueio-de-ormuz-em-breve-dizem-fontes.ghtml
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNTXZ4cTczUHBOZUIxaEcyYTBrOEF3bm1YZ2RyLVVRNGl6N2pKdElTWHZQN1Zyd3FyS2E4Ym9fZTBTUzYtSnRvaC00ZzRYcWVkRHV4T0lRUml0cndLeFZYanN5N3ZveXJweXFMZXVsN2VvZkJWQUJGeWxIa3JXbWZEd3hqYmJNXzN4MWdISm9qcGNsZGtf?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-04/10598639.shtml
- [6] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/03/69cff685e9cf4a23268b4578.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/3/will-force-be-used-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108963-vdalosa-vratuvati-odnogo-z-pilotiv-amerikanskogo-vinisuvaca-zbitogo-nad-iranom-zmi.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260404015744gyX
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cly68eg7px6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-fighter-jet-iran-raf-b1277613.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-one-downed-us-fighter-jet-pilot-rescued/live-76649854?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://elpais.com/mexico/2026-04-03/estados-unidos-suma-inesperadamente-178000-puestos-de-trabajo-en-marzo.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/3/survivors-of-iran-bridge-attack-recall-terror-of-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNV2k3RzVva0hYbF9UM20yYzBfaVlBOHRVQ1BSQ3NWUU54MlJFM0M4WHRoUm1zSThjUVlxZTNKSnEwNzNlZklDT0RhSVJzanlJdDNoLXNDcGdYT2RxMVZsVTIyUVRJZUZ2Z2xSdm9WVEtvM1dfSkJuV19uQ25HTGNRZ3JaSDVWb1ljQ0EyNg?oc=5
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10598635.shtml
- [17] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758492/iran-us-fighter-jet
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4108911-polsa-pidijmala-vinisuvaci-cerez-rosijskij-masovanij-obstril-ukraini.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403235949ayF
2026-04-03
2026-04-03
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步加征关税或调整贸易政策，聚焦药品和金属领域
- 欧盟将辩论对俄制裁调整，匈牙利等成员国推动取消能源制裁
- 英国与盟友或推出针对伊朗的新制裁措施，以维护霍尔木兹海峡航运
- 全球央行面临油价上涨带来的通胀压力，可能推迟降息或收紧政策
- 美国贸易代表办公室继续推动市场准入，但新关税可能抵消进展
- 国际组织如联合国呼吁停火，但外交努力面临挑战
关联路径
伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡干扰 / 石油供应减少 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀上升
美国加征药品关税 / 贸易紧张加剧 / 供应链中断 / 避险情绪升温 / 股市下跌
中东冲突升级 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
制裁讨论 / 航运风险 / 能源成本上升 / 经济增长放缓 / 央行政策调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/2/oil-shock-triggers-global-price-spikes-as-iran-war-drags-on?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260403090743K1l
- [3] https://globalnews.ca/news/11757640/donald-trump-tariffs-pharmacutical-drugs-steel-aluminum-copper
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d0md89v2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10597911.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWkhISW1vdTUyWGpsZXhEVXNmeXJxbEVIeFFsaGcwY01WWmRiaUZHYUJ3TE5zX0s3OUZIVmY4dGNkNFIxZ2wtd2tFWV9vdWg3TkttWGZBTWYxcklKNk90VE1uZHhkS0ZyX1JvYTdmYUtsQVlSWEoyc004NmhSTWlNcmx6SVlrUTVx?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/637100-orban-eu-ditch-russia-sanctions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260403/662cabeae8c34e56b0bd2499be4bf50c/c.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-04/usa-zoelle-donald-trump-arzneimittel-stahl
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/02/trump-says-us-destroyed-irans-tallest-bridge-tehran-attacks-american-fighter-jets-at-jordan-airbase
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4108544-un-secretarygeneral-warns-world-on-edge-of-wider-war.html
- [12] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/liberation-day-one-year-later-protecting-american-jobs-and-delivering-greater-market-access-american
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3425775
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yvette-cooper-iran-foreign-secretary-strait-of-hormuz-tehran-b1277524.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403091250TSJ
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/trump-unveils-100-percent-tariff-on-drugs-to-push-for-pharmaceutical-deals?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-03/10597907.shtml
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/02/100-prozent-auf-arznei-us-regierung-erhebt-neue-zoelle
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQczRQTWhBdHIxRWliUHFoUElFTUZPR19PTC1DbG0xN01sOWpKWmFtQkxnZ2NZMkMxMTlSSm8tZ3dsRi05bWNtOWl3R05ORTN4LTQwVXAtVnI1OWY0Y0JSU1dTaFh3d0xKZGh0ekdiOWJBOVUwSm40QUc5LTFvV3hGem4zcTNRZGpMUGQzMEo1b3hiLUtwQWw0WGxWUzlzTFVNdlBnaEV3MmQxWlBSaXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlg4ejJxSEZqeUlZX1RaNmdJc21NWXRwUXFLRV8yWGJZc0hTblBoa1hEY0ZmV2FiNzI1S1BDTGdxaUl5RUR6YVpoMGZ5cUJscWJlbS1OcE1BN1FXVTFBSU1Ubm5ycVQxeGZfbUR3aHl0ekZOS0NrYXFWVVc5TXotY2FITFFHSWM5cmxzVWxXT2IwSVdFb0EzQi1BcEF2dEhwX3Y2V1V
- [20] https://globalnews.ca/news/11756857/gas-prices-easter-long-weekend
2026-04-02
2026-04-02
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续施压伊朗，同时寻求外交解决但信号混乱
- 欧洲国家可能加强能源安全措施，并协调应对霍尔木兹海峡危机
- 全球可能协调释放战略石油储备以稳定油价
- 北约内部紧急会议讨论特朗普言论，可能导致防御政策调整
- 美国对乌克兰军援政策可能受地缘博弈影响
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
特朗普北约言论 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动
能源危机 / 西方经济衰退风险 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
俄乌冲突外溢 / 地缘风险加剧 / 黄金和美元上涨
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/2/iran-war-live-trump-to-address-nation-tehran-denies-seeking-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/33177de39fe3445f9a61ae9037bade69/c.html
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260401/9c763c423582452e84358382a1d6fbf7/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78l70g124jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/5c76f8eba9eb47b092d05f092929af41/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/e724e267b7fe4019b374dadc569c27b4/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/a2fef62739bd4b41a0bea9e0cf206c9a/c.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2489v97842o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-signals-iran-war-could-end-soon-but-gives-mixed-signals-on-how
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-zrobyv-zaiavu-shchodo-vykhodu-ssha-z-nato
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/sohodni-dovoli-nasychenyi-dyplomatychnyi-den-zelenskyi-nazvav-masovanu-ataku-rf-rosiiskoiu-vidpoviddiu-na-dyplomatiiu
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE4xb3ZESG5sSVBvUldEcWdRUXVkc3d0QmtzTkJNOVR2bWl4MGVxZVNmQWhROEhoVEVvYkFYdVFUajBzaWFPc2w4RHNaY2t6WDM5bmo3SUdWV3U4NzFjcjA3OEp6UnEyV1ZlUEZ1YWpwaV83VXkzQjl0Z3F4eXNtQ1E?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQbXpVX3k4YXdlNko5NE1jZkFoRGNnTXVGcnhPbDJ1dXdoQVBLeml2bmRKMEhuUXhzTzhoZ2Nuck12ZWg5Ti1jaVpXNjI0dHVsdnpNaGZUejU1V1FWaFUyRjJQUFE5cktuMDhoVFhYcy1wbWRYLWRsc0dURDlHa0Y2RTBHQ2FVSGg1VGE3amVKbXRqczBKT3ZyY0Zrc2pZeWhoVnpz0gGoAUFVX3lxTE9Tc1NqbERCYXZDY0F0cU93NmR2S2xfMWRnZkRHSllKcHdYaHY1bVNva25XSGIybkhPQVlLZjAwTkNIYzFrYUY1YWsyTV9NRTU4OWptUjhFY3NQZTRGdkVYOE5LWHA4bmZvU0NSNVRoME5fV1cxZmgtYnFrbUlPTVRJdG1lVHcxNmdZUEktTkZhWG1jOUoxdmJrR3UtVlhFRVVDUEJmSi1TNw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108174-tramp-vistupit-sogodni-vveceri-zi-zvernennam-pro-peremogu-u-vijni-proti-iranu-politico.html
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOVnBCaHJjSm1wOHRTS2c1UmhYWXlyeFBwUWxmUTdUenh3NGxKeEJRcURKVEFjWDBwdXJvZHQ5NWFvNTBHNGZrNXFWdjR6Q2R0MDlicHUtYkVIWGtYaGVKZnVvcmZDWWhrcDhqaTBqMFd6ZzdROVFxNjRuZHBIVVdfb2c0aUNQbThDREc3Z1VfTm8yZ3ZzS0lXT0c0VkZvLVBwU2RDNkU3b0FFa3daY25ISg?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQd3pIQndwVTNkZFgzZUVqQmFldUQ4Q2RvR0Y4dkdnb3Z5NGloNllJWlUzY0QtYldPT05tSjYya0hxMmVaY20walNxeWZ5X0FOWkc1QnFlMWV3eERxVGZpSXlXbmZoS2thaVhTQ1FnU3NfeGlMeHNld1lvUTdmSTNyNNIBhgFBVV95cUxNblp6MFR0azlvSWlfOXZYSlQ0Q0hsT1lkS1BXN2lTODlHMmdENFdKZWZ4Zlk1VGhpWUtRamNjaFRScG9ycWU5Q0JLTDhvM3lXbkxVWTNISjRSVUF3cjJjeVpRUDlNdWdLU1NZY0NDYlQ3UUhXbV9GVVVkSjJGSGFaSV82WF9ZZw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOQUtoOFhoajBOVWFhRUhJc3pxREFDQUt4ZzRJRmFXSHc4OE1WcHRvWElsMTdiVUtZeFNzZGFmOW95c2ZGcWRFRURoVTlvd1FqeUNDNWZYMjBjTURmUWFJNGpZaTBwaFZYNzFqc1FTdkdRT1RqVDBUc3JGOTh4OFprWWdSajlxS0NDRmJjUy01blVUX29reTRNZEM2cjFJMTUxaWlQWTVmMA?oc=5
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/ahead-of-national-address-trump-says-strait-of-hormuz-must-be-open-free-and-clear-before-ceasefire-talks-161325922.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/smoke-and-embers-seen-over-irans-isfahan-after-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sohodni-oholosyt-pro-zavershennia-viiny-z-iranom-ta-vysune-ultymatum-nato-politico
- [21] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/rssia-diz-que-assumiu-o-controle-total-da-regio-de-luhansk-no-leste-da-ucrnia.ghtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOZms5Smk3QThZbjZrNndNN0JzVHVXWlBZZlRiRmdxQWNfMVJheFhOX0VHWFlJSFljTG1FUnFXbFR5WkQ5a1JjU0Z5ZmpiRUNiTlJIVDN4QXpUdmplMkZBNlVPeXl2NzYxNDMyalJiOVJ1a3V2ZVJkM1hlZTdILVZfdDM0ZXlCT0RuM05SUmVrbmYxY3J3N0w5LXMxOGFyeENlWTFQYVZJVkdhQ0w2eDRkaG5KSG5IaWd5U3hQSFRxWm8?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNcjRCbG93VGRqVlVZeWpyLWtxcXJSbEtFX0d1VE5PQ2VnaGYyVktxMDhFVlQ0a1A4QnlhUjU2SVlSVWlucU5QdkEzZWFMblZQcmVmYVBhN2N4dm52SXRCS0dYZGdmRWdfazNqUU8xZVY0TUY1R3N5czc3MXdWQ2pYLVhWZmlTblIxbm55RFhTdk1FS1Z6THE4MTRTOVp4aWtGdDg3RFhpZEVGaHNmRVB6RHc4ZEVjb2prcXFNa01OVDJFUnY1aEE?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/central-israel-hit-by-one-of-irans-largest-missile-barrages-in-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://unn.ua/news/rosiia-vidpovila-masovanoiu-atakoiu-droniv-na-propozytsiiu-ukrainy-pro-velykodnie-peremyria-zelenskyi
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/636985-starmer-albanese-iran-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBCel9UNjBCMnFjc2tsQVBmVFpSX3BPbjh3bzVFRFc3QklvQmpaRUZiNGxpZmVqb1VQM0hGRWJ4NWFscHVrSGNtNzV4VDZPLUpiTklnZkVOUzZDUQ?oc=5
- [28] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/trump-ameaca-cortar-armas-para-ucrania-se-europa-nao-apoiar-coalizao-para-ormuz.ghtml
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636981-iran-war-us-israel-trump/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/01/nx-s1-5770093/trump-address-iran-war
2026-04-01
2026-04-01
进展要点
- 欧洲央行可能因通胀数据而调整货币政策路径，加息预期升温
- 美国贸易政策转向，设立退款门户返还特朗普关税以缓解贸易紧张
- 美国政府寻求在伊朗战争中降低军事卷入，但面临盟友压力和国内政治动态
- 欧盟呼吁减少航空出行和推广远程办公，以应对石油危机引发的经济挑战
关联路径
中东地缘政治事件 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策反应
北约联盟动态 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产流向
能源价格变化 / 消费者信心和经济活动 / 企业盈利和市场情绪
来源
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/us-israel-launch-major-attacks-as-iranian-authorities-maintain-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4c4cac52441b485dbd6a8df270ff155b/c.html
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/38b5771ae34c407f81670651669100ff/c.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/732d80efd7f9462f8d3b745e1ee64101/c.html
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4fa12e0e7874490a86812ff9c4188bb1/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/18d6a28a2bc847bdb7d6e8b8bdc7b7fe/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/8f2ffd6270b542fba98a9d8cbae5a0b7/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/048988fff40141b7aecf9cd2c5373dfb/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/55e6f8748c3a4d8faeec9c26b56c1f89/c.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/trump-says-us-will-be-leaving-iran-in-two-to-three-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/636893-nato-without-america-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/after-strait-of-hormuz-opens-turmoil-would-still-last-months-analysts-say?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/eu-warns-oil-and-gas-prices-wont-quickly-return-to-normal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOdDBCeWVSazlVOWZVR2JNQkVxbTloSjAtOUZtaDBadkwzNW9zZHcyWHNQaFhqNGJYQm1kMlp6UEkxLWRaU1FBLVBmYUNMMEs3UUFSejJpVjMzclFkcjl2Yl8wZ3p5a0N5Tm9TWGNyS3htQ3haRFVlb1g4T3V2ejJGSHhIZlExR01kNDFHU0tydk9BWWswV0R6QjJVWFp0VnhLWVhpdXVmN3A1elpyRXdoQXRKTGJ4dw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPTGI1RDRzSnZ0MW9jTlhyd0tGNFdjQk5EQkwtS3U3UjJXUzFxR05NRVlmT01WLUtEeGlTZzhiUExVbEpENElQT05YckFqcS1URTRZQUZtMzZ1UF9YSXFUYVNlT2ttbjRaTFlhUXVkQmJHVV9oUUFtNjA2N1VzVFpOS0QxNFkzeWozYmFOYWx0bFZ3YzJESUtxZ2RfREtYR2RiaWFQS2VBRzdhcUpUNTBVRGQyMkYweHFHd0Ew?oc=5
- [16] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-rushes-to-set-up-refund-portal-to-pay-back-166bn-in-trump-tariffs
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE53b3lVZW5GdzFVOU5YSGZoOFJDVWNORVl2SHZZTjBQNjhlY05tY2R6RzdpcF9yWWxEMUZ4MllSNU92SDhnRkQ3clBsZU5lV3ltcVA5YllGWVlOemV1TzlEZ2stNk5XMU1uZ3hsVTMzQXJOWFN5eEVmS2F1SkVjQms?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQTEJJSWs3ZWoxYi1rSWs2YXd3VWFMNGs0UEtERkM5OVcwNm44V3dxcVd0anUzb3A1SFZ0MndLU3dHYnROR1FaekxYNDRPaUlMTUQtbHlFWDZXajhWeXRKRmJfUDVnSTYwSDdBX3h6eHVLNncxU2NsSS1zYjcwUzd4MnZwMTdqM1BwaTNNR3BOcEQwdw?oc=5
- [19] https://oglobo.globo.com/blogs/miriam-leitao/post/2026/03/crise-do-petroleo-uniao-europeia-ja-pede-menos-viagens-de-aviao-e-mais-home-office.ghtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/economia/2026-03-31/wall-street-sube-y-el-petroleo-cae-ante-la-disposicion-de-iran-de-negociar-el-fin-del-conflicto.html
- [21] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/we-changed-face-of-middle-east-netanyahu-says-war-on-iran-not-over
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/636876-putin-steps-up-iran-war-live-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/31/hiring-in-the-us-drops-to-pandemic-lows-as-job-market-under-trump-stagnates?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/31/whats-behind-donald-trumps-interest-in-irans-kharg-island?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/china-pakistan-outline-five-point-plan-to-end-us-israel-war-on-iran
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE90dHZRdWlORGY0UVFheG5CTUVaYXhmZ2xsdHpzTERQaUMtUjllc0lXMC1udVJMTlJFVTB5ckljUGx5RFZuREtab2JVcVRRNDBiUi1mV3o0NV9FWGlsRHlRY0lXNGFZRjA?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9MYWZqOWJKMmJsOWl2ZmtOcG1qUHlLWk02b1NzUlFvU2Z0ZVRTaFpYZHRZX01URFM2OExMUmNQTGRWU1NFNlQxMkxpa292TDRYbWJMSGw1R2htR3lpT1l0WHVIY2hkNHN4OWxXckcyanNNdzhlMkRla3IzTXp2YVk?oc=5
- [28] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-plunges-stocks-soar-after-iranian-president-offers-first-signs-of-willingness-to-end-war-with-us-183158792.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNTkNSR1NUcVd4NEkyRXN6TTVBZFVvNEFKZHRJc0RqMjBmVTR6eXBRVVFKeDcwLXA3YmlrQUYxZDlFa1hSb2h1TS03LXVnNy1SellPczFibzVEWUVfSW1XLThHZkZnWG42WENKN1F0NWtMNTJ3TEotaE5GbFdiVXVjNHdrUkhXaWl2V0pwWU5ucDJoRWs5VUlPVHFvT1k5UTcxMWNXV0FjX2I2b19WMXc?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNZnctT3ZsYkZIVFJPUXNFb1pvWDRxWDJxWjlkM0JmZHlOenltb2dnZVQyYUVCaXE1aVowZkowSlA1eUNRa0RuNGhYc2tsUzF4b0xiWlRJcGRCVTRQV3poUnk2Z1czX2VXMEptUkhQRnF3Ml9mcVNNWDJnUWxsaFNVN1BzMG9qM0xfcTdPbUd6QXVGX2hqY2tEWURGamdjS0NlV1JUeTIwbVJXbUJfMTdvYUhBMFlRZw?oc=5
2026-03-31
2026-03-31
进展要点
- G7正协调全球政策应对能源危机，可能推出联合干预措施稳定油价。
- 特朗普政府设4月6日为谈判最后期限，政策走向取决于伊朗回应。
- 法国呼吁各国不要禁止碳氢化合物出口，以缓解供应紧张。
- 美国可能让阿拉伯国家分担战争成本，影响地区联盟动态。
- 央行可能面临通胀压力，政策收紧预期上升。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀
避险情绪上升 / 股市下跌 / 安全资产如黄金和美元需求增加
G7政策协调 / 能源干预措施 / 油价稳定预期 / 市场情绪缓和
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险下降 / 石油供应恢复 / 通胀压力缓解
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/a4156a8c98604fbaaee1ed080d686a4e/c.html
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/9f3ed09e09c8421bb08ee61c114fa897/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595633.shtml
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331060611dr8
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-security-chief-larijani-more-key-iranian-leaders-killed-in-us-israeli-strikes/articleshow/129907599.cms
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-30/10595608.shtml
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/f4f265702ff24d1292cbd62c8636324f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/b7c8e9000fbd4cfc871051de1ed7b6f9/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/0b757beb8ee44c1186169d4b984f3d83/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/2d2a9d5efb5446f99f6a0040090631cb/c.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/31/iran-war-live-kuwaiti-oil-tanker-hit-in-dubai-port-3-un-troops-killed?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/al-jazeeras-full-interview-with-marco-rubio-on-us-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260330-crise-%C3%A9nerg%C3%A9tique-le-g7-%C3%A0-la-hauteur
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260331002400320
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331091039Faa
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595636.shtml
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/us/politics/us-missile-strike-iran-sports-hall-school.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331082958BSb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603310824239gJ
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595631.shtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPZE1Oc2xwRE93TmlxNGxnNFZldTMzS2RuNG9KZHhTT2o2OVczQlhvR1pBZnJJNXlRSWtndDFlbFY4alFoMThScHZQcHJkcTlSMTJZTnJOcmlZTVNqcU1MdDlPR0ZaWmpMSUt1NE1pY3NFbXdZaWlzdlgyQ0hfSk5MbDhJMGVLUVRmVENQYllYYWhmSnd6NWdUYnJ0S1NRVHdMVlZyZzEzT2g2ekhxVTU2U0dlT0s?oc=5
- [23] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-us-spezialeinheiten-im-nahen-osten-angekommen-a-f1df0f24-9734-4bc2-b88c-caa4761ed54d
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075620sy9
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075817J9n
- [26] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595626.shtml
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBDeXpnM3NIMmhOUGR6Z0o0eU42Mm5JZURDT0hOdko2M05KRHpZeWJMdXNaMnVWeDd0U1RLVnh3VzhOOG9pakVwZnVENHFSYXhRbk1Fam5zM0JjSEpNWGxPcTBFMHlIcUZ2N2c?oc=5
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260330-contre-la-crise-de-l-%C3%A9nergie-un-g7-in%C3%A9dit-avec-banque-mondiale-fmi-aie
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/trump-eyes-arab-nations-to-fund-iran-war-amid-peace-talks-with-tehran/articleshow/129910962.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331072941ROe
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
进展要点
- 美国增强中东军事部署，政策方向不明，可能涉及地面行动。
- 地区外交调解如巴基斯坦会晤，旨在缓解紧张局势。
- 美联储政策信号将影响市场情绪，需关注官员讲话。
- 全球贸易政策可能受冲突影响，调整供应链。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
军事行动扩大 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升
外交调解努力 / 缓解紧张 / 风险情绪改善 / 市场反弹
来源
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPemo4aG92YmVObXh2c2lZeXpZdlFZUUR0S0VEUUF1TWdObEdCMnBOaGJQa2FWS1FjTGRISXhMcjM1bXVpalpPSW9uNG10aC1fNWJ4ay10eHhwZ1JlSGZ6ZUVFSFZqNkJQR3lOMGpQb3Mwbl9qWC1QQUhWTzJiTklIaF9VdlBzMkd6bk1wam1KMGhqX1YzZjVHcWlHTmg0UFByZHRZ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE80aEc4OWU4TGtJMUw2MTRhWHo1SDgwdVpnTzJ3OEVRT2FGWkVxeHlhNlVxSXI3WnJyRDYtRmhFa0NRdHcwUTBHWTNzYzZoMU5CVEVPT2l5VDZvdVpsTWlLSnBpYU5wLWlEdFh6QUdmVmlKTy1zbFVjTHA3Zw?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE5rUGkxamwyaHNNNGJ4M2ZZNXVpOHN2X0hDMG00dnVMS0J1SXd2WHFKc2gzMVZZLXpSSzJ2QTN2SllBcEJZU05CaTk3aE5TS0QwNUxKeDc0ek1XZmQxSkhYOFdlaWQxQmpqOWItUDhzWQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260329-world-trade-is-struggling-as-war-in-iran-continues
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQcjBLWHhQcG96UjU0RHh4a0JvRW5oWWZ5X3lFYzJkLW4tT3RjZXdkejJWcERZX01xd0wycUZuQVFCanZzUHIxVTVUSEx3blg0TWRMYnlod2pTRk5TT0wyVEhQVkF5eThBclFGeEdPNGF3aG5KTVRkdkpiMUJwb3VYc2ZJQlRBYXRRcFJUZ1NIc0hzcGNVZHRSYXlpSnlkanFtWHfSAacBQVVfeXFMUG1NWFY3ZUJrRl8xMGh1TTlxaEN3aEtmY2x6ODQyV1JYQ0NFVEdocGZyY0x3YXVXbjVDRW5fOXFPemhhWDRmbFlLTWhydHdBSWx6SmdoTktUQzFLT2RPRVJXVmQ5ek12QWp2UnplZ2kxTmVVa2ZWb2o4NHNsVVVhM0I3dE5DS05vd2VrUHVvamhRa3c3NWptcy1yRlI0SWUwM3l6WDdKems?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/one-month-of-israel-us-war-on-iran-a-timeline/article70800535.ece
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106917-uae-intercepts-58-missiles-and-drones-launched-from-iran.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1xbHZQRWhXdGJmZ2lKM3NuUEEzWEVGN09pQzF5ZnZFX2I2bVlkYlNNc2ZWcmw4T2FUZlZuRVNJRHNuTXFqbHB3YVRzNkNjQnBtOXEwY1BvVVUzbGdLVWZySE8ySFdYNnNaY0JFeWFR?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-missile-hit-neot-hovav-162832864.html
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-attack-saudi-injures-least-224939787.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-warns-us-against-ground-assault/live-76581165?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-houthis-claim-2nd-attack-on-israel-in-24-hours/live-76573681?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-reports-fire-in-new-ukrainian-strike-on-major-baltic-port/article70800282.ece
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge01w2dxe0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp86yrq5jy7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/29/iran-hits-industrial-zone-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260329-moyen-orient-washington-muscle-sa-pr%C3%A9sence-militaire
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106892-war-update-enemy-launches-66-attacks-pokrovsk-and-kostiantynivka-sectors-see-fiercest-battles.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNeERGX0FoN1B4bXRIUmktRHRLZnNOUnpha2tpYk5fZW92Z3FNVXRkZEpYTng1NzdRTFFPS0tKQ2dtYVlsLWpScnJXem1EMG1KT0kyVmhJVkNvQWJIZW9BYTVHZFBaWmNWYW9HQnQ4R2hzWWRNWG52V1NNVjBMQktiOHF0X0RaWS1jS3hjUURGakluVWJkWWZydGtILUctSzNqa1o0UjduQWxUd1BYUFlyT9IBtgFBVV95cUxOYlRSZkhFVHNCMFI2ZlJGMXJfcXktNEJVa3hhcGJCZDh3NExYdVViQ1RpWXZkVkx3SHE4RmtaSUd5TUdVWWN0NEExT29QNklNbmZ2MHlLckxMSGtuajlIMjFaMVI1cEpISzF1S0QydGRiTU5PZjNKaFpxcnlRXzl1dkg4QThCdFlxQkhjT0ZEWi1SZVo2Sy1fbVQ5VTJxZ0FvczB
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxNWFhyQ1p0emoyTk1xOWpzMEZhZGxpd0pPVGVva0xiUFpnRkpCSHhnU2Q3VVNRNmFCbHhZaFlCMHBacXZWYVpLOVVlb2MzNnFnZVZYWVAzWThNdjBlYV90Mm8wMUdFal9hc2ZhN3lkcks1UDg5M1Z2WGdaU1U2RVVNQjhOcGZaTmJXQzhrUklWTi05VnE1YlBqbTdNZ1RFbFhDUG44LUFTV2NMTWhheW1PbXZlXzlqREhUbVV3ZlN1SGhBRk1NWXJDd3p2dXI5ei0xTUttTVdrMFd5YW9wM0k5T2JYV2p4VkVwejN6LVV6MG5Nb0k?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/houthis-open-new-front-in-iran-war-will-yemeni-group-block-bab-al-mandeb?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxPZ2lfV3pPSXZNdG5HUE10NDE1YThZZDVFakdkb3lfa3UyLTdSRHhhX3RmS2VuZ1U2dC0tSjU3dXlBMDg3Y0hWanh6WW14RXRjZy1TS3ZFcGloNGFya1FTZHNvc1Jzc25RVTJnajVTTHJkZ244SVJiM0d5NTNPYWg3Y2E3a25mVmUtckoxa0FCRG4zNk9FYUtCMTRneHpDRTNxR3lfczFZSUtaM1FHMUIxVlFLZ2VjWXJLejJxQU1EZHM5dFNPMnp2cjJKYUJwWjg?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPMVhGcGtmWFFLbGxsLUpUY2tlNUZablRoMVhObzdQYlFBWTVmZGVyc3NaZGRFanVKVGxBX0YtNGRKblBKUjM5c0xqaW1LZW9nSFJTQXdJVTlqRDg3cVd3TXdjV2RaeFdBR2RLYkRpRURGczJwX2dNeGNwLWd2RElfY3N3Z1hGMk1H0gGLAUFVX3lxTE80Yk5sMER1YkxQaTQzTDczdHV0WkF6ek55eVhjQkJpdXFQdzNHbnU4N19wQ3c3UWl3aWdpMU4yQ2UtY1llclRpLVpwX0IwOWQ0dENTSzZTZDhWc1pyTTRhVjBacmpIUDg4VEl2QlJxQzhPZDhWa2FlRTk5Nl9ncjktVTZKWTN2b1ctc1U?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOSXE4WVFndEZQVWNOQjh2UkVNV2FIaTQ3MERlWEtuN192WG1pRnlsVE9zMVFHUVRncDZmX0NKb204STYwNXQ3LV9HQm51c2thVVJLWWExNGx6U2pnd2QyMnpPb3BRMlMzMC1SS1N1NTFVOVo1UWE2TDRYbWJCU0tXRXFnV2pCb0l2Z3pB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-3-500-us-troops-arrive-in-the-region
- [27] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-crisis-mediators-gather-in-pakistan-for-talks-on-ending-month-long-iran-war/articleshow/129881093.cms
- [28] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-silver-outlook-bullion-markets-brace-for-volatile-week-as-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-cues-weigh/articleshow/129881732.cms
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNRlZTZnRnR0tGckFFMFNyZkFpMkFYSm41Y3FmNmtWTlF0ZWZIYlpGZE04SFc4Nm9nZENQMFVNWW1kUURBSjR5Q1pfS3BIR3FFUUNTRDY5N1A4RUxRUHROTnNoLUdNX2J6ckVmNGhJM2dYaFRSQmFXX2VCM1RXcHNxeWlOR2F5VV9qQ2lQa09FS0xndw?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQTkVyUEN2ejdNYWNQOWRLZHVJLTJyNlRSeHVjT1R1YUg1UTE4dTR4YWtVLTZsZWZFNnNWZzFpQ0VoSzl6RDNvMW9uazV4QXBfb285NlUyYWRjV25ubjJRY2tDTlZqcHAxbkJVbG1YbDdVNUhJcGJOem1sSTRfRU9fN1c0TDVnQ2ZtY1dBQkNNbXZwZUQ5ZFo4MWpnajFWRnhidExsd2dZX05zRTg?oc=5
2026-03-29
2026-03-29
进展要点
- 美国可能继续增兵中东，强化军事存在以应对伊朗威胁。
- 伊朗或正式退出核不扩散条约，加剧国际核危机。
- 特朗普政府施压伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡，但北约盟友反应分歧。
- 全球央行可能因通胀压力而维持或收紧货币政策。
- 反战情绪上升，可能影响美国国内政策可持续性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 市场避险
胡塞武装袭击 / 红海航运风险 / 供应链通胀 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
伊朗核威胁 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 风险资产抛售
战争延长 / 经济增长放缓 / 企业盈利下降 / 股市回调 / 债券需求上升
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/key-moments-in-first-month-of-us-israeli-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE9zNUlleUlBNHRhY2g2Z2JXLUNrcjZ5bzJRYlRkNm0yQWRtcDR1UHJLeXRwRVNkWFZNdDJEbEMxMXdFNWhYVS1YODV3WnJDSmJhbGQ1dkxRVUpVVVMteUVtSmxWSmZUblMzZVE?oc=5
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/analysis-1-month-war-iran-150728746.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/29/iran-war-live-houthis-attack-israel-anti-war-protesters-rally-in-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-hits-airbase-in-saudi-allies-houthis-enter-war-target-israel/articleshow/129874132.cms
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxNRnNNMXp6endjeWw0eWo0SkJfX0JfVExSUnRyd2lYV01CcVN0bnVrREVUSnQxSkM0TFMzNjVWNzdCNXBNcDZ4TmgtTTNkUE94R1VSa09lb3VwUUhDVWUxRzktOXlwS1ZidFliRTNIUng3QWVFeUtNVVNZZjVia0FZZW4yZjVJRTJoRzFQcnd0bGpRaE1rNFpDaE1uMlVVVlFIVFRtSXg5ZHZPNUZfSXNndDBlcVNrME9KWWpuVVA1eEjSAcYBQVVfeXFMTUlJaHJnOHJwb2lBQmQwSmltZ0Vrd25YWnR2TGl1TUJuWUJxOGJRUnk0a3ZfQ0l6bnNETVl5Ny1PREVaVkVtaHd1VlY2akRMbHNNbUtWTTFSM2RaRnp2QWFTbF9UbzdoZjVvc21laUVxeGxWVVkta1lVS2RxY1NZckJfUWhXQXdBaWIxR1ZiT2M1R0d
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/636572-iran-us-israel-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTFB2LW9fUjBuQ1haQUdiQzRBSDBVNkFWazR3dDZsbDBJZE5yeDRUQjFBN0RaS0dzWjNCSm1TdW85anFXNno3V3p4OXFEUEgwRVJNOC1LcUhRN3p6X21FRm5uaFZwTUFxeDVmR2pZYm9iem4wOHBzUGpyOWRLSEg?oc=5
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3425270
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260328-les-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men-lancent-une-attaque-contre-isra%C3%ABl-les-frappes-contre-l-iran-continuent
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260328-yemen-s-houthis-launch-ballistic-missile-at-israel-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/kuwait-airport-hit-by-iranian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/opinion/iran-trump-israel-geopolitics.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOblloY2RKTmxkUWY2ZUQwak54MXZLRHJzcTZVNWk4STFDb3VQZkU5OXg1ZUp6dXpITmxFVkRubXAwTDZkcDU4cTBjZmhHSnd3dzRqZ1dGQXBVUldqakRLbTFzUENheUotNTQ5Vm9jTV9HemE4dUtEVDhXbl93YnRIS3hoVHJWOFpoSHBzUUFUU1NjMDNDcGhEbmpvSFZndDByODVUT2dn?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6l5n8jv4yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.iris-france.org/operations-aeroterrestres-sur-liran-de-quoi-parle-t-on
- [17] https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2026-03-28/larry-fink-presidente-de-blackrock-y-el-hombre-mas-poderoso-del-mercado-si-la-guerra-en-iran-se-alarga-mas-de-un-ano-la-economia-mundial-entrara-en-recesion.html
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [19] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/28/iranian-attack-on-saudi-base-injures-us-troops-as-more-american-forces-arrive-in-west-asia
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQYnNQVkNDSkdjNEVEOHlNUzlPQkFrenhKRGhOdnNxU09SLW1BOXlEeDFGZ0ZRdWtsWjZVWnhxYUhyYUVpMWsza0d1ejJxT0RtQ25DU3ZKUGVscnpud2MxNzdJd1V6bjgza3ZscmZLOTZfT0g1emxaY1hVZnFuU3VlR0RPOFo3WUNMclN3?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaXNoeE54X2RSMXpjVGEzNklVVW5QckY5cjYxRzhWQXBBMmZyOU9VUHR2Z1hIRndXM21odExpRzNMbFhObm5lQUc5azVhQmZxMktRS2lDZW5XcmVmZ3lSRnBwX1hZd1pJOU1fYWZmeWYwd09CU29CRlZ6Z3gwZktIcS1Edmtta0xIV0Y2SEkweDRJVGpQS1A0UFlfX1VvZGV0?oc=5
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106683-air-defense-systems-activated-in-kyiv-region.html
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/lawmakers-push-npt-exit-as-us-israel-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-steel-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-troops-wounded-in-iran-strike-on-base-in-saudi-arabia-us-official-says/article70795431.ece
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/massive-blaze-at-kuwait-airport-after-iran-drone-strike-fuel-tanks-hit/articleshow/129869192.cms
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-les-possibles-impacts-mondiaux-de-l-entr%C3%A9e-des-houthis-dans-le-conflit
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-ukraine-des-frappes-visent-odessa-zelensky-dans-le-golfe
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-premi%C3%A8res-frappes-revendiqu%C3%A9es-par-le-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-iran-frappes-isra%C3%A9liennes-sur-sites-nucl%C3%A9aires-et-civils
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-des-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-bless%C3%A9s-dans-une-frappe-sur-une-base-en-arabie-saoudite
2026-03-28
2026-03-28
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能维持强硬立场，军事行动或延长至数周
- 美联储货币政策可能受避险情绪影响，关注利率路径
- 日本财务省可能干预汇市以遏制日元贬值
- G7国家协调对伊朗制裁和外交努力
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀压力上升
避险情绪主导 / 美元和黄金需求增加 / 资产配置调整
联盟紧张 / 地缘风险溢价上升 / 风险资产抛售
来源
Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZEtyeXAteExYR1BmQ1hmendwdEJQbFo0eGRCVXdWMWFwT1JkSmU4UHJIYTJtT0puUVUzVTBFd2hfVk1ONXVNV3MxZGMtOHBUdnlCVG9pU3BhMk8zY0VpcHpBTXZTalRpLVpkZUlJNF9TbUxsWGZhd09BLS1na29SR08wQVIzZ3daZ3lpMmVleGp4WkV3ZWtv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6f005e85ece997c8b456f.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-israel-hits-iranian-heavy-water-nuclear-reactor/live-76555531?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/explosions-rock-iranian-capital-amid-us-israel-attacks/3882486
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNR3F4N2t1WExsVkJXTzNGT183ZDc0SU9LWTAtWE8zX0tRRllRMFkwdHl2LV9ESDJxeDlTR0hzM2ltVDlETmhyV3RnWmhLY2RWX1I0Q3lMaXlfeEdUWVk0Sm1vS0htQTVMWmRXQ0FJZVBhS2VXNWRSdXdWUDkzanU0U0tJcjhGam9OMTVUMmU4dWFTVm1qY2l6d01JUQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPT1lyU19ZVDZLRWc2emFWcWhUcFo5clVjM0N5R2FVQ3ZZZjQtOExQV0hpZ2xScEU3Xy1yUmYtR3hTenNLaWtlZUREdGZ4Ni1lNjZ0RzZGeWhRaU4wUHhHTm5OM1RYLTZKNUVQY2JfdGVnVzVLODE4N3kwOG1fb3AxWDhvYlBub29XdXZ6MGJkWVVTVXBwRGtET1JkM2Z1dXpXTF9EcEpYUmlnMlVoOVVmcXctaw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/israel-launches-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-sites-as-war-enters-fifth-week?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/israel-attacks-major-industrial-and-nuclear-sites-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/27/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-plusieurs-sites-nucleaires-frappes-marco-rubio-au-g7-prevoit-une-fin-des-operations-d-ici-deux-semaines_6673056_3210.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE93bjF0N2pQUWF3SWRVeENjeUNiM1lFeWR6aGZnVmJaU2NRYnc0YTkxT1dUX3BHWTZzNUVpMkt6SDRQMW5NcXl1SHdRS09IVnBuRnFpR0dkVDljd3BSUW5tcy00a3F1YVZ4OHc?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxONFp1WFh4TlAya0RwNGhQM25SYktuNDVXOHdOZ2ZhVXEySXRaUUM3aDRHLUk5SzVvV01tanRKUHdTMm1PZXRnZUItSFpNOU4tZzNBZ0dIay1VMWRXenFNYkFzUkxJOVMzZUhMSzRnRGRjdk5SQzVZVXNZTTEweUdVZWtZYmhZcDdNeWZzdXdfYnLSAZYBQVVfeXFMT0N6QTFnQUhnTlNKeFo1S2ZZQ2Vlcmdnc3dsM3N5dE0zaG5laXFRTlVEckI3ajJ2cmJKalhFel9DZmtGMVQ1RFR0Y3JSekpNdG11LVpXNFJCczl5djRrbTNjYzQ4OVlHM0V5R3JJal9hWC1lNE1YSXEyZlRXOWVvSVJxaDY5SVp5OWRJWjNCdDF4Rm5hckZB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-uses-hundreds-tomahawk-missiles-101814598.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106269-irgc-announces-strait-of-hormuz-closure.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-creating-a-new-middle-east?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-samstag-104.html
- [17] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/release-the-bank-canadas-summary-deliberations-2026-04-01
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/rescue-workers-rush-to-save-lives-after-south-tehran-missile-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [20] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/28/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-le-chef-de-la-diplomatie-americaine-marco-rubio-accuse-volodymyr-zelensky-de-mentir-sur-les-garanties-de-securite-proposees-par-washington_6673450_3210.html
- [21] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6aabf21efa07c798b45b9.html
- [22] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/28/69c6c1ade4d4d8ca6d8b4571.html
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/28/trump-stellt-unterstuetzung-fuer-nato-partner-infrage
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/houthis-warn-fingers-on-the-trigger-as-us-israeli-war-on-iran-continues?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/nearly-1-500-civilian-deaths-in-a-month-of-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-human-rights-report/3882476
- [26] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/trump-says-cuba-next-after-iran-war/3882480
- [27] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/washington-donald-trump-pete-hegseth-b2947437.html
- [28] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/73131
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/fingers-on-the-trigger-for-military-intervention-houthis-warn?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxOaTZ2TFgyZmVUZk1DRUpidjlZcGV1NkpFX2IxVk9QRUZNdGZRWi1ZMktlcDFncGFUOTlNajloY1l6Sy1NdHBpU3hvdk5hakJxMEJDTVVhTnh2TjRRUm9SNFZPdDRhV1J5LTVwNmNsMGNqTy1MTW9ad1ZSaUo2V3duNkhaTjItczdP?oc=5
2026-03-27
2026-03-27
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续使用军事威胁作为谈判筹码，政策信号混乱。
- 美联储可能因油价上涨导致的通胀压力而调整货币政策，加息预期上升。
- G7国家等待美国澄清伊朗战争立场，可能影响国际合作和外交协调。
- 美国国内政治压力可能迫使政府调整中东政策，以缓解选举担忧。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀风险
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
油价上涨 / 美国通胀压力 / 美联储加息预期 / 全球利率波动
WTO改革失败 / 贸易保护主义上升 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOazM5aVI0RjBGa0NfUzU4UGNKMXpONTNmc2tQdG5Gc0E1UTBrS292SHJCSzZHcTlHdXNEVHhtM2hXeDh4OFVqZFM4N24xVzZlVTZSNlJmWlhxQmhvZWtWd3NlV2dZdDVCNWhvQ0lYN244cEt6QTFlcWM3ZTVTaGtBUUlRTUdUMkd4R1kxWjhacEVrNnV1MHRfZmtQXzN1WXliN194MnJEZEJWa0R3Qmt6ZU1Eckg3ZXNBc0xIU0930gHDAUFVX3lxTE83b3hyNjVEWXUtWE5KRTZEX040cnZhcTdvb1VFeEhxR1luQXVTR2lKaWE3T2xmWElrT3U2NV9xMkdHd0hxV21BLTJmUjhxODc3blNfUGtwNHRCdWM2YmplQnVqMFgzS0dDaWVoZ2ZOME4zSVNBaVo2LTE5MElLQlBiTjZVYnhPSkMtMkw3VlFjSnEwcjJ
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/iranian-missiles-cause-widespread-damage-across-israel-in-latest-wave?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260326/4ba703685484482e8b989fe883829511/c.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593524.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593519.shtml
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593516.shtml
- [9] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c54b06e85ece6b448b45a0.html
- [10] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c56546fc6c83733f8b4588.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/trump-pausing-plan-to-destroy-iranian-power-plants-for-10-days?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-verlaengert-Ultimatum-um-zehn-Tage-id30517240.html
- [13] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Teheran-kontrolliert-Strasse-von-Hormus-mit-Mautstellen-id30515770.html
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Hauptverantwortlicher-fuer-Sperrung-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-soll-tot-sein-id30514792.html
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-feuert-ballistische-Rakete-auf-Abu-Dhabi-Tote-durch-Truemmerteile-id30513646.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/636330-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/26/aje-onl-tt_irq_neighborspillover_av_v2-260326?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/26/what-are-the-red-lines-for-iran-and-the-us-in-the-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/wto-holds-crunch-meeting-amid-collapsing-multilateral-system?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/trump-postpones-us-strikes-on-iranian-power-grid-to-april-6-amid-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-03/strasse-von-hormus-iran-trump-ultimatum-verlaengerung-ostern
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-starts-formalize-chokehold-strait-192024062.html
- [23] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/03/26/guerre-en-iran-avant-le-g7-le-canada-et-ses-partenaires-attendent-des-eclaircissements-de-washington_6674368_3210.html
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/26/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-au-liban-au-moins-1-116-personnes-ont-ete-tuees-depuis-le-debut-de-guerre-au-moyen-orient-selon-les-autorites_6673056_3210.html
- [25] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/26/trump-verlaengert-iran-ultimatum-erneut
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/israel-sends-more-troops-into-southern-lebanon-as-ground-invasion-expands?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/una-guerra-de-final-incierto-en-la-que-los-dos-bandos-elevan-sus-exigencias-que-se-sabe-de-las-negociaciones-entre-ee-uu-e-iran.html
- [28] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/israel-mata-al-responsable-del-cierre-de-ormuz-mientras-trump-urge-a-iran-a-alcanzar-un-acuerdo-antes-de-que-sea-demasiado-tarde.html
- [29] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/iran-rechaza-la-oferta-de-estados-unidos-para-acabar-la-guerra.html
- [30] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-24/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
进展要点
- 欧洲央行将密切关注通胀风险，可能推迟降息，以应对能源供应冲击。
- 美国或加强制裁执行，增兵海湾地区，但外交压力可能促使谈判尝试。
- 北约需回应领土遇袭事件，可能加强东翼防御，推高地缘风险溢价。
- 伊朗坚持五项条件，包括霍尔木兹海峡控制权，谈判进展依赖美国让步。
- 全球能源政策或转向储备释放和替代供应，以缓解价格压力。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀风险上升
俄乌冲突加剧 / 俄罗斯能源出口受阻 / 全球供应紧张 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判僵局 / 地缘不确定性持续 / 市场情绪避险 / 黄金和美元走强
能源危机 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 央行政策转向鹰派 / 利率上升 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxPZHZTeElMaGFXSUFuLWF0cm81WmRmc2R3T1FRbVRjZkJNekFQRnZlQS02bl9OWkgyT1JGVkRrUXpqQ1J1Mmt1Y1U2NUhuZlFRajUxTlBxLXlkdHBQM3ZVSks2Vjk5TmlQUUdhWnZPRHNIRTdKTzJYYndFd3J6dmlaTXNld2tZTlRkSnQ5bTF1VVU2Z0c1UWpPYXh1Mk9SeHZnTVl4Z2syVENULVNaY2NmNHJYQ2lDRHR1RVdxbA?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/explosions-and-smoke-seen-as-iranian-missiles-hit-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995xp4jxj2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260325/f6d947b8e24c4f2e8c5b44ea69c57b8d/c.html
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-26/10592890.shtml
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0n9z3jlvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOZUVaa1BTWEJ5UENmczgyUTZ2VGlvOThaVk54Zy1mX2FlSkVXRkpPM0JoRFN4SkMzYjdqMW5YX19Ib3E3d0hNd2J4VUoweUdxUGZEbHEtb2JJVzNmeW53d0VkQmtMOGJESVBRX2JQZ0VrSUJLRWotVGw3dkFVdDBDaTBSclBnaGNzNmdva2hwa3NXbkpwNVA1VkZ6UVZoMDQ3NzMwetIBqgFBVV95cUxQTTBwMHc0MXZhWElFNnE5UHhqYnppQnYxbkhqMUVKYTJDSzVRRWFHSnJ2dVBnanlWWmFGdzFWbkdWelR1Znl3U1pmTEM4X3NGa0FmMUJIX0w1V1UwYVhIV2VDaUlLS21rTTdFQUV0VFNvMkZxYkotd1VfT1Fud1Zwc1VQSU90WXlIcHk3aXRoS3BXV21oWVdnd2N5SlBPd0NqQjZZbHppb19sQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQMXdid0VGVnlDTGxyM0hLVm5YQ0t5clFwMHJiTG84R0dSM25BMjN6cmZMbzJTNnRjM05rV0UtVmVNTC1XLWx0UWFwaVBEd1VXYXVNamxuUHI5NEZPeFZHN1FKZFpJTW1LSDd0aW02RGVXU0NSM1VQRHJyY09MZU00TGYtSlk3QVk0QUNvSUhwbHUtUkxQc2pLNGtZMmhwZlRQWVlmQnhrUFE?oc=5
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/636210-us-israel-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4105605-war-update-140-clashes-on-frontline-pokrovsk-sector-remains-most-active.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/iran-releases-video-claiming-to-show-downing-of-us-jet?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/us-tells-iran-to-accept-defeat-or-trump-will-unleash?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTFBaSTB2REZuZkVORnhBWVNzZUxJazU0QjNvX1ZURldXN2pXVl8tUmt4LUtVSXMyRzMxTGZWRUVxWllfeXpzQUJoaENZSFppbGxJTW1JUU91dk9JNFNwVTJCd3hGTkFpTDFKU1Y5WVpR?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/25/whats-irans-war-strategy-and-what-risks-does-it-pose?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPcnFiZWQ3UmpJdmZUOV9JUk1Xdks5TkdMRThxY2NDVXNRczFYbUhOeFVVWnRYU2NGTkpJaFJ5NU1sc0tXUHZhVlZqNHdncmQ1bXQ2VXpnOEY2S3Q4dFUyVmNaUXFnblpWUjdYZE0wbmRVNnBtYjR5bjBHQVhOcWdVbWM5NWZNMVA1bkRlck02VkVOMVhFWWJZTWVHRDREbVItMlIxWjlR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/irans-state-tv-outlines-five-conditions-to-end-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxPXzFlbUhpQ2xmVXJWMXI4SWEwU290YVN0dkdJSUdfYWUyZ3RiZW9SNnZNSmI2N0k3cE13T0hMQjNVUk9rMDBHLVZrUFpFblhScnBVX1JSTjViQ01EZUtwNDJkUF96bnNJTHM0ZERnNWNiNE1WS2tFM0p4WFZ6dUx4cXZTZ3dmczBIZjBsLTJKdjRxa0xOWV92WV95RUotcmlneXpVVkpCZEsxMFM0a014Y3RkSnRjTnRWc0Z4dWlYU3RWRkVQZW8xbHQ5MXpSSnRSLUFmMUVmZV92dG1OeFlsQkNEUWpTR2xTMlMySjh1Sjc4Q0U?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOSE9rVnF3d3k4SmhmU01hRkdJdThyM2RiVXpiRDZaWGtqMDQ5NzhyWXVxQW1MNlN0aWd3VXNvcTZCLTUtdlhMQU5qYVNWRWZCWFVwaVJaQ3BhclFLNEtqN1dHekYtcDR1X18yaUNGcE4xaTZBYm53d0VrMUFOUGs3SmdRTTU3TDRDd1pkUDhUT0ZQbFJHR1lsdklIbE9WUi13czY4YTE5b1RRc2V2Z290QQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/636167-iran-worse-than-iraq-sanchez/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBhNUprVndUd2RfcjlTX25CYWxQX0FURTZxS0FHNHhMTFZ0ellkb2RUcW1WVE5BUkpEdS1EbzBFaUNJWXZiSGhJYjI4NVN1eGhIcjV2MlhJYV9iS01Sc1J4Q25QWE4xY1RBaWFKNXdIeEp2U21mLUJuTw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQbVB0QmxlZFY1d2N2ajhFMWpMMWJZcWpOa24zV3lYVkZUYk8zMF9iR1lULUJROUZRaWRjanBuUzM0UlN6OUhYQ2JyT3Q2Wm5kMDYwUzZrWTlIUXB0TkJmWnBHV0JyNFUwVnZKRzJ1Q05VSVdKVFF3cmJKbGl1QVpyV1lIU3NmYjlOUkg4Zg?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPUzdaa0lJdElid1NPc2RhSGJGdkRGenM0UGcyWDNfTTUtbWFwMmFHbjgyaVEyb1BDTG5EdVlTamZBVkQtLXhBaE45dWZBX1luTUNGWWhzSmwtVXY2cTkzSmZHQlpNVDNoQjg5R1Y4WkJtTm5uTmNfaHlseDEtZ2xndmtnUHNjckE5Z3lrbDlXMTdEeVJOdkxYb2Z6dzBsRV80Wl8tR0lFeHpTS1pwcWZoUWpJeU5UNjFnaVg2T0RB?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQSnpPVGY1V0h1RUhCU1ZCNVFyQV9DczRnVHJEMVk4QWFYRHk5VzRxWFpQa1FRSjFaTEk5YkwyejBmLWZTaFVieVJIVnRyck9Yb1JhYjdNX2lsakRySmdUbkFZY1B0aEJuNzdtNFhscXVPZXRGMmhhbUJVRWN4Z1BvQ1hMd0c3Ml9PUjZGQ3dqNzhtc2ZZR3hBSVZYaGwtNk5CVWRYSXRrYUFzMDNkcWJHblFFTW9fdw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/war-on-iran-what-troops-is-the-us-moving-to-the-gulf?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOdUtCdTFreDRwM3dONWtPQmFoZF9UNEdUMHhJejF1eUcxZEhHVUQ4XzFJdVZ6OUdkckZ2eDNpODJRSHBYYmxpbC1CS2dSOXgxclR4REhmRWlITjFUS2VnVVE1RXRKa2xtODRTeTlhN2dyWXNMejNmYVE0ZlU4R1RmVjREZGZ3TnFxNXNIYV94Sk92VG44aDZvVnFnUW1iQkdo0gGmAUFVX3lxTE54eGZkajBCaklCOElMT1k5TkVMbXlCUWw2Y2pwbUFvYmlEUTZFb05rejhuRXREajA3UXVqYWRzTlZ0QjhObTlMdkZzMHJieGJnVlF2aUFjM0xUY0pHdEY4TnQ1SE44ZW5tc3R2TlJnc29CYjVwa0lDRk14T3dWY1lZd3YxZnlPeDBkOG5ETWNab194NFAtamJjWGloWjh1Wm8xR1RYUGc?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE5uMGZRMTY3dnJWQ1REYWVFY3dqNW9NZGg0Ym52M1o4VC1TZWhzQVpMUjh3ZENlRGs1UTBROXVJZjJ3aXdQQUh3TnZUMA?oc=5
- [28] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/70691f988eb542f3acc9660bfd41443c/c.html
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636100-shock-and-awe-is-dead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/israel-talks-up-iranian-threats-to-european-cities-to-justify-war?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步军事部署中东，如第82空降师增援，并更新对伊制裁。
- 中国通过财政政策支持银行信贷扩张，重点投向科技创新和基建领域。
- 全球央行或因能源通胀风险调整货币政策，关注利率路径变化。
- 特朗普政府外交策略矛盾，需观察后续军事和经济政策协调。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 油价金价上涨
LNG供应中断 / 能源价格上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中国特别国债 / 银行信贷扩张 / 实体经济支持
地缘紧张 / 市场波动加剧 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/building-collapses-after-iranian-missile-strike-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/iranian-missiles-cause-injuries-and-major-damage-across-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPQ3N3MFRHWTViTmdtMGhteGRYbFBTaTN0TlFJdWU0eHdkdmtsMkVTY09PbGF3bmFRUnBDT1JmS3pmMGVkSzd3d21UUUlCQkJaNWkxSmRXcHdZMUlqMFY1Mm9BcFJjblp2bzctTmRpWmpPdnNLQUpxdFBMbi1GLWxNZk1nMHNualdrTjBhdTNaR3hRWlBa0gGaAUFVX3lxTE5PQnBMY2FGbVJYZUczQVMyN1Y5em5NZHpEeC1MOHJzR0tfa29wU3c3M0N5NzlDWF9WaW8wRjdhUnZvVTlZOHo2WDZyV0pDSGJiMFJBMWhyNng3bl9hWDl6RXc4MF9Mb0NyQnBXNHkwWFJ1YmVlMFJZQTNpOTkxLVdsdTJleXE5cnpwS1lWMTF0Wml6eC1aQVBpZnc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260324/13137e064ccb478c9939b3b8c9272065/c.html
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/6b6fad3bee41483eadae413812ef9ccd/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/25/iran-war-live-trump-again-says-talks-underway-12-killed-in-south-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://unric.org/fr/lactualite-de-lonu-en-bref-numero-11
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/arms-manufacturer-thrives-amid-us-israel-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/trump-claims-us-has-achieved-regime-change-received-present-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.anzen.mofa.go.jp/info/pcwideareaspecificinfo_2026C021.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4OV82UHJwV3pQdUdsRUc1R3hnSHFFMXIxQ25uLU1TRGFxNUFZMmpBWG9GaDRwRkZHbmplVDlnWklTRTFpcmpWMGJaVGw4aUl1ZVZkRUhMZXpqQQ?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE83NTJQYXhUdGF1U1RIRHpnZVZ5M0NDdzRYMVpySW9kUzZOUUJyS3pObEI1MVFhWTZ1Y0hOYTlrbkFJSFpjdExjWlE0cEU2eUQxZEExN2VMMVhURkhIVkFsR1BZdDJsaElCeGZSRQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOWW5Xd3p5UWxSQmdTMjdmRVJOaTBDb0lSNmdFd1FVTVRacU1qOEY1Rmo2d05iUXYwMXQ3ZU11RnhYdHI0RHBrbm4xbGVUSXJydjBOc2ZWdG85c3pOZEFiQ1lOckZ0cjQ5SFJmSUQyc3hsX3JoTE10aDRFTVRzNFM0Ykp6ci1XSWdxUGZTVlNoRjlhYVp4?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOVUswbnBPNGRmZVI3bXFRMWZ4Q3Fucl9Cczd0MnlZQUVZcFUxeF85TzNIbmoyQmUyckl5dWpKTFoyT2Q1OW9UWkdjaGhCNGw3b0t6S203VDJSS2V4bldDSGZVZm9pMk50S3owX0Z1QXB6OU5Hd0kyTWpwbEs2WjllRjJuNkttTHhqNENjd0sxZE1OVEZUVXpjb2IyeEtqTnBvUWxSd0ZWb2dRUmhiVlhkbHdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/has-iran-brought-down-an-unkillable-us-f-35-jet-3?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/russia-hits-ukraine-with-deadly-daytime-barrage-as-spring-offensive-starts?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxPZUo5dVE3czd6Mm1zajl0eklhS1ZnVUtPY1FIWDF6N3h0M0ViV2pPa2YzNlZUN3FYNlQ1MENQVWdrUzFNRkhhQThPUldaWmNrcHpzNFNIUkIyc3d1OE5qWjloTk9Xd003d0ZZRzgwaGJkWUNFc2o4ZUVaVzBtZGVDYmgzcFM0cmdGYTlha2VNNWluUlk?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNVVlkMW5RWHd3cEtuaEpTLXYwT1ljcUh1eWxwM1BPbHU4VnFWOWRHMWNCYTlhQ0VESGgxTTBuSFdOa3U2Qmo2bHRfV2FDQy00NDl4NE9MN2Y3LV85Mm5JaUVXZFJNaFk5SVNoWVZXbXZVNkU0U2VvRG5xanBFTi1iS0hud21KZHBsYzlPSUFIdVk2bnYwRlFfc2NqODdXUQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQSUJBY25HYjlUaU9STTBWX2VycXdDbktZMjBDZ0xrXzRZbGdhTlo5UXF1djlIYmRLRmNJM1l6QUJZSXN0YXlhNF9SOUNfNzJTM0ZuNjZmUnhVbWVvd0dqMGZBcFZOMEhPVTNjZkdOU3BERnVYbjBtcVlwUmpSb0hwWGJVYjQ1YV9NTzNZc2xFcDA2dl9JT2g1bktUMkJMalBzQVM2NUVBMkxVenpEVGxIc1RzS2hBM0lSNXZOb2RSQW9MbFU3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/24/what-impact-is-the-war-on-iran-having-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPdkFVRklESDFYLXFHSFhfaWtsTkVnQkt0Z0hQcjNHb0hSbmxoX2U3WUhidy1oM1VxZVNqcGg4eGRrNHJlY2pRdXBQRl90d0hGNGs0dEpRR0RaQW5jR2F6OTBkdGZJX3JseDlmMWhsOF9WRVVoLUpTV2JLT0xYLXdXVlVRbG1pcDZTSW5Gc1E3QnVJZjkwNnlTNUQ3NGVEdFZBb3FtcmZUeDg?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/israeli-defences-questioned-as-iran-continues-to-cause-damage?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5491798/iran-serang-pasukan-israel-di-gaza-jika-gempuran-ke-lebanon-berlanjut
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz90gpyw90wo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQWnhpTVZWTm5IVFdUc0VzbnpHMXF5MFlMM0hWWDM5ZVV0ZWsxZmRvcTlWZks5OGZCT3huSnpsdUFfMXRLVnowTllnV3Q4eDlGUzdpbDgybjB2ZjBKQmZ5NmpFUGVpcjJIRUJFZGQxUFVzbnJEM21qNllDdUl6aGVrRVFkdGlpcnE5azhnVlJZUElEeWpyQ0JlTHJ0UjdlamFoVUVteC1pdTJaNGc4NzZhNl9kMTFvbGt2al9QRQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c625j162yy6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/moment-rescuers-find-man-alive-under-the-rubble-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260325000829qiS
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260324233310JGR
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
进展要点
- 国际能源署可能释放战略石油储备以缓解供应危机，但警告无法根本解决短缺。
- 中国推出财政金融协同政策刺激内需，中央财政安排1000亿元支持投资和消费。
- 特朗普政府对伊朗政策矛盾，暂停打击但谈判信号不明，增加不确定性。
- 巴林推动联合国安理会批准使用武力保护霍尔木兹海峡，需关注国际反应。
- 全球央行可能调整政策应对油价波动和通胀预期变化。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 避险资产需求上升
IEA释放储备 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期下降 / 央行政策调整
中国财政刺激 / 内需增长 / 经济预期改善 / 亚洲股市受益
俄乌冲突升级 / 俄罗斯石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪升温
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQeFlEVTNsOTdEc0ljS0NNM3hWU2tyN3pDanhRRUI3X1NHazA0QlFZUURfMXJ6aFd5TVRrV3FSNkVUWEU1OEFfZGRFWUtHM2Z3cC1RM0dQTlpWZGNGTmN6RGFIM2kycjhsOU9mMG1SY2s1aTJTTnhOUTd1TWJxSEpFWExvRHV4ZDdhS0s1dEd3dnBMR3VXbUktUEVKNE13MnAwcnFydFVRa9IBrAFBVV95cUxORFlJeVpKaDUxalYzQlEzS2YyNkgwb2xuYVhFWGEzeGg3UXp4b1JVdzVJcTBwRWMwQWtCMjhXN29DNlg1WVdQX0FjbzVoZGlVcm9WYzQ2V3NCOEV0Z1hNTWtJSTJxeEVwR3pjZENmMWZrU29qdFZNWGJaMDdkcmMzUVIzd1g0RFVFMHlfZ0VFOGVqVHBPMzVteHliNjlkWnpxcXBKSHlJRGhHUU5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260323215112Kkk
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOUHkxVlFhd3UwODFGQzA3RmlSSF9VOG9KRE16MGs1RnQ1MTdaTEo5VlU2ZzVpeVpCNEJCYTY0OWhCaW1RdWdkZmZYQndOUzRhWjZ0S19XTWZVSlF3enBRbVVmR2JuU0JrR29MbnFJbXV6UTdhbGlVTHhIc2hpNXVUc2h2bGtyYWJCcU5PUklTWWxka0c0V256d2EyeHM4b251Z1EydVJZMDRJZTJhblRqOFE4cmZKdXpWM0NjMnpDa091ajBTVTk0TjFZMk96a0UtQ19HOFZ1WTdFSGNK?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxOWnRuRU44R2hpMFF3QXhhOGcwWWlrNDlBbWluQlVGblNQWjFDczNJbmZ3VGhWS1ZEUFZXUTh1Vk9UVjlVMHpsbWQxOFhBU2dpN1Q1eW9GT1JZNmxoNHNta2lDTUZaOTh6SUY5cUotblNhUUgxYUFvcnlfblBsNmp4b1hEMHV4Z3R1OGphUXF1bVJFaWFTaEI3RmFYQ2NmWFJieHNlWExPaHVyVFlJM1pxUW1qc1RXWWPSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWJ1UC1yMHl1c0I1UFQtQ3pKQUtoX0hhTmlJSFROUWluMkRJYjNsRHM3RlFfWDduUXdvVTFVNUJnS0Z2VlljbXZJRDlLbmVqdk1GWDJleHFQX2ZzMTlHR1NKczkybVdKSTFtdjl6MnhUTXFDUFBsZllxWms2NV9ZaXFRSmpSSkJPU2JRb0dDRE9aMm5jU1R1M2JfU1E
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/bahrain-proposes-un-security-council-191015009.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/c3ec2f52c91f48498322e5447855a248/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/532a958446c14f798d6c3c77956c7b8f/c.html
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/b617e78931ec4118a6258dc96ca5904e/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15Yy1taFh4aEtPNVBuTzdWTXN2ZWxhTE55ZzlUdVJ0RENRYzJ2MGctOXJFSzlsTnBhNFJqUXJGOV9HQWdkRGVJd211b1VueWpBdVRhNl9jbjNxdw?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxPRWtnS3JYeU8xM3A4S0NCMnA1U0s0QWRZbHpWQm9vVC14QkZCRks1cmU1NGJMbVcwbE41VGkxN1BYS1dwR1BxMkJnaWRab29NSVJwYUNzZlBFQk0zaEJlMmRNdTZwOGdXVjlsRXl3dDBmd0RMTjRtb3d5UnBQMjhCbVNqOFR4am8zWEg5dkNNQW1rdWs1blFGZnVDNUlDbzlUQVF1QXZIb3paYmthTTc0ZmFBb1VSN0RaUGY1eEZqcUVPZGpHRHR4LWJROEhXRmJNaEFF?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPZDBuci1xV3lJRmZiRTRrSEIycXJJbTBZcXA3T3dWSjQyM21ieHFFV0NfX3BQWUxyZnRQUmh1SGM1YVZZaXNOX2gxbk85M0hwZ2Ixd3ZiMEVLbEcxSDF6LU9GaGRIZUhwQ2dFdFVNenVkQ1NXSEtYSVR1MEJPNm5EbDdzY09sSDA?oc=5
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591666.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgJBVV95cUxOaUttbXZMVWI4Ri1UU3NjdVRhenVfZndFMFVXZ0dUNjdOaXBkMHk2cVJmTWVsckxqX0t2RGsxVVFMcGJRckFLRXo4ek9KQWRjUHc4ZzhmXzVqWTNjdUw5cDZxbWVTd3FmUjdYdjN0Q0RwdGtFTU11ekRPMzdRUkNoUVFieC1JZ0tueWJHRVFQZ1FleXBsQmg3QUNDdWxaWUNiZTBtbDQ3ODByVTVoMV9yblhURTZubkpEbzFsakVOYVRCbVI2SlFCbzVjWXpkRGNtcUZjVVhWeHFXcTd3bmxXdmE4QWduWjI0dFJDM1BtaHRlbVhmS3pyVjUtTjRma1pmTVlVODhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/115f499f8d94454299aca4391317ebef/c.html
- [15] https://www.president.gov.il/%d7%a0%d7%a9%d7%99%d7%90-%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%93%d7%99%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%91%d7%a7%d7%a8%d7%99%d7%99%d7%aa-%d7%a9%d7%9e%d7%95%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%95%d7%91%d7%92%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9c-%d7%b4%d7%a2%d7%9d-%d7%99%d7%a9
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591654.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNU2NYQUNVbVlyZVNkdkwxMkhPd1lVVTBPODdNV2VjOVd1UTlYVU9yWWM4RnJUWFhyUW5pNXQxc0FUWlRWNFNmUXVJLTAwNGpzVnJnZVpNZ0pZSGRqQ3FPeUllTWNOUGU0Q0dja0JaODQ4bG1IaU9SRUJsMGsxUzRlYkdFczdjNXRQYUdmN0h3VmpkUm9HWGNWUThwaw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/23/have-israel-the-us-and-iran-violated-international-law?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/23/smotrich-urges-israel-to-annex-southern-lebanon-as-assault-intensifies?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635973-israeli-minister-annex-southern-lebanon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/635945-netanyahu-trump-mossad-coup-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQTmVDemJya1pCcFFiaXg4X0tvQzd3dFVwZ3JYcGZPcW0zdDNoeF9TYWNEWWFiZ1BOb214clNtNDgxekt6Y1V1a2pqZENEZ3ZHXzA0SlpiWXgzNnhaTWFHMVh5MXd4ZktUTDFOQTd6QlpHaWU2N250S3ZzZENBMWw4T2g4V0htQW0yazdCYTh6RkFSRzYzazJsdWxNVUhBQjFCZnBNclBYZ1VJd1ZMZl9icjBvWmNSTHpTeXBn?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPWFBma2Z2eE8zN2Q1STNJYkpNbnhSbXhyUkE4MW1DZXRUcU51NjJaRjNQYUpnNEh5RHNnWHFxN2pDcUlrUkRZcHV4SS1reXViY0JCLUNxQjlvX3ZaNHlRTnItRUQyd2pxd2wxNUFRcXRKNU1zdVZrcXRKRkVIZE1YcEd1SGZIU1l2bHBTc010Zjhwcy03VENWdmdlZ01uVVFfbFdISVRSb192MHZudzUweVpQZzA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635916-us-iran-energy-attacks-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/ukraine-strikes-key-russian-oil-port-and-refinery?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/what-trump-said-about-iran-after-postponing-military-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/635922-persian-gulf-sea-mines/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104754-zelensky-warns-of-possible-russian-massive-strike-today.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE05UDBYcG9nNXA2c0NaNS1zRkNVWjlFODFSVW9Id3duaW5CVmRJemZLVWQwdkNHZml6Q01LVVVtbWg2RTZudXlLdXVHemZUNXpmN0taY1N6aVhHMGJWbmV0TTJPNnNtWmZxMU5USWM4MFZfN2liR190Rg?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPNG1XQ3RiWWFnZ1VRVmFUN1FHcHA1dEdDdnJXMjRabk52bTRKQTRxOEMxR3ZzUG40b3ZxaHZfM19ua2RJam5PdnI0d0R0NGU5VkwzU2Z3dnBqZUpMS0tNTDFyUHdMOGNCVW5KZ2hkZ2NGNXhLS1dIWG1wYlFoRG9wejRQNC1nVHdibkpfbFBHcS00ak9LU3Blc3c1RS1IbkRWeVFvSFVaZm1MZkZtSk92Q0lpdUNMRFk?oc=5
2026-03-23
2026-03-23
进展要点
- 特朗普政府启动对伊朗谈判准备，提出六项要求包括限制核计划
- 北约秘书长呼吁成员国集结以重开霍尔木兹海峡，支持美国军事行动
- 英国首相斯塔默召开COBRA会议评估伊朗战争对经济的影响
- 美国可能调整军事策略，从空袭转向潜在地面行动以应对海峡封锁
- 伊朗提出强硬谈判条件如停火和赔偿，双方立场分歧大
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀和避险情绪
霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 油价飙升 / 资金回流美国
伊朗报复性袭击 / 地区不稳定 / 黄金和美元上涨
谈判进展不确定性 / 市场波动加剧，影响资产价格
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQT3ZNV3EtM18yTjlzZDNUYlU3YXljZGRUY0o1N1ZXQ1FvXzVOWG45VUJ6SW1kNTRhU1hEQUpGMzVRVE5pUnNMazZ3VGxHc0lsZE1YRnFudndka255bTVEMFJnM2ZhdkZNdDdLbDIxWGxpbnBzRjlKQ05TWEJoR0JOekFncXpucVFHd1A4UVNnak0xd0lHMmxFemU2Ti1TTkHSAaQBQVVfeXFMT3V5aERRUlAxQmFnYk5NQXZ5ek9OaXhRdlVJTXVfbm9teTRsWDBPNmJxTG1hUW1kTkd4YXZaZHlSdTdlWFdWVGN0ZDB0QkdoOWhGbkRyZzQxRm1GN2pVMEJoWE9xWlRrcmRjYWNOY3NhX0d4REtuR1I2dUtEamJkMVJfZmdURHllNmRnb05qbTRUOWVqR1NxSTR1RmFhRnc5UWpwVlg?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxPV1l2bGRCNUZZSnBSb0JSc1RqdG4yZXRvV0cyczhsRDNtRHVyYWZjclhYdVJTZmZHR1RES01FbXNSZkZCUEM0Zm9DQkVFQW1xTDJaV0JJZi0xTkFrYmJFaTlFYVMwaHN4SjRMcVlNNGJMN21yZGdGQmVfQTJxUEctNnB4SzRyXzJWRVVTOUNENEx6eHhLVzhpR21UUHZYYUFKM0JXTWtoTXVkaVlUNXpoQl8yYVBJM2twdzBna3M5TTA2UQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/iran-claims-missile-attacks-on-key-israeli-military-bases?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230031383jb
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260322232612fdX
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNaHBrbloxQjlGRzJKSy00dEQ1Qm9VLTZ1VmQ3ZDUtNlZSYzhYSXE0WDYyLXJrSjZGd0lvS0s3Q2EyRzZieUtUWUlMb1loVmVfSUR5Y25rVlhnX092WEMwM0pNVFFQMS1ia2R4bmJhS1l4NHo3SUF4bHJxakVPdzZuQTBXSV8yblRoejhXcWtVVGFrNVIwM3F4czdmX0I4S0prSFJVVHR2ZmFNVTBhdE5PRm0zaWdaR2s3VW14dw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/moment-iranian-strike-hits-central-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323025052Hm3
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-hints-wind-down-war-051853034.html
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230243549b3
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/we-do-it-together-in-confidence-netanyahu-backs-us-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-to-chair-cobra-meeting-over-iran-wars-impact-on-the-economy-sky-news-understands-13523061
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/risk-of-escalation-is-extremely-high-as-iran-shows-it-can?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9jcnVocFJLNzlNR1REN0dXWWpZaGdOTDJUWTlZREdLQnlOcEtNZXdBbUwyNHQ4SDNmOURQNmZVT2hSX2xYeEdRUEh2dHp4WWp0b3pvREF1Smk2LWoy?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5XTFdWUGE5cERnZkhaTXJxOUM2cWFfNHJzMnNzbmxfQkNmTk53Z3dZdkdIM1F0Q1pNV2xRMVBjbWx5MEplVnZIbW5hdmdFYlRLdnBSSi1IYUhjNnN1Rm1TbDFfZ2ItbjI2?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNejFFOG1nc0JZSUs1clVVTEdvb0dOVVEwejJpUlRFR01RUWtfRFVBUW5iYkVpYXNoamxDSXVvVkJEa1JJWkQ3VmtsNDRqNVhfMVNvbUZHMlBocHZfUTFqdms2SGZjV1RnVUk1WGJ4YUNacU1FdUppblNjdGpBQU95N3o5d0x2bEJGYjVSMzJNQUx5djVjNm8zV2JfQm02S1NGeWlpRDAtY0pRQzBTRHfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTVhUbV90T0EwWEs0azhVbk9vN2JHWmx0dURSOTF3a19qUmxzMDQwU3JELTV2SmRsMUFKOVU3NFZxM0t4czFSUXVlZXJsRmtVZThxclpHamNoQWJadFdnX3k1U1pXa1h1TTNJT3B5Y29CeXJzXzUxbTdSbFlFaWhXYkpWdm5vVFJtRnpRRGVJd0tmU3ZVWjZLNXVUbGxZZkdwMEtOYTV
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/gas-prices-south-southwest.html
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFB4am5wWjBMYmt1ak8wT1dxNHdzTUJlaWd1ZFBxQ0hmYlVDVUdWeEZ2aFQ5aTJ6Q2I2LV9fcjhWMF9sZG1mMDlIRncwampXY1NhRnRhTlhkWlpjTmZaeU5EWTdDeGdkYXFfeEN2VzM2NXE4QQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNclpXV0tqN3l4dmxLZFBuS3IwUTFteTFSeGlxYUE3aENPSGdub0IyaEptN01JSnJudmZUaGlvUzktS19XOV9KTW9NVVFoWUdqRzdscjdTQUd3WWJLUTFxMWZtcTUwTXNiaExNYlFXLWpPcFEyQko1eXVHTENrQjlWYWczX1FBWDJlSHRnNjlwMXdOanBuSi1zMlZaVkk5N0lKUVR6cGE5ZDFsREdsRl9jRUp6UW7SAboBQVVfeXFMTmg3a1lwZFU0VElmREJJaUh5UjE5ekZTLTYwLUZuNU9Dci1rcDVRbXJrcWhBZUN1ck1kRWpLdldobDRqZUVnOFVDaEQtRjNoaVVNTVFoN0FlODdjNnE5dmR6TlZfNjh3Z0YwSmVsYlVYODQ0MlRMRXN2M1lVRVJabi1tbHNJRGtDX1g3YXpRV0tadXZweklUTmdlbEJTRzd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323003254LDq
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iranian-authorities-taunt-us-israel-eu-amid-strikes-and-assassinations?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/21/42609
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBxQlZJNlZWNXI1Q1ZVMmVMaHFKc25vekYtQmtqZl81cjk2SDRQQmRuTUxyU2RnZ3JfSkhxMzhZYkdiSWJEX2hDbGdxYzdDTEdJZndZakdJSENmQXdmajlDNWY2ekdoajFYQy1LZW5wV3dDQ09nbTIxaG9lZzVjLVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/trumps-changing-messages-on-iran-war-what-does-it-say-about-us-strategy?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c3v6k0l631vo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iran-says-will-hit-regions-energy-sites-if-us-israel-target-power-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104328-iran-launches-nearly-30-missiles-and-drones-at-uae-today.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQbEtmcldBb2JsM1BrQ2pUdFpRS3JVZTZmSXBjZ0R4WHVqS201OTVJcWFHQ3Q1eVU1WERjTkx4bjM1MmprVGV4VFdVQl82TkdjOTlzQkpybmpqQ1lORGZjMy1vRWR2OUxhOUVlRjR0VmxJel9lT1ZySGZzdDZ0THhDVmhELTljbXZvV0dzWWRHVFVWcEx1?oc=5
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPbWJzdnNvOUlTV2Iyc2tVaVJuTjh5ZmJNb3JWLW9SemFheVo5OGRObFZ6MkVuSGRvNzE0ZXMwdEJfOGh1NWw1MTloVXQyZlplTG1GQ21zWDN5MXA3WmZEa0hPek1XS1k3a21sVTlCQlR0UXR5YTJ0WTV2Vnk5Z1pSR1FDRVg?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/opening-strait-of-hormuz-will-probably-require-us-boots-on-the?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-22
2026-03-22
进展要点
- 美国政策矛盾：特朗普暗示缩减军事行动但增兵，政策方向不明增加市场不确定性。
- G7可能联合行动确保能源供应，但成员国协调和具体措施待观察。
- 欧盟加速天然气储备以应对冬季需求，能源安全成为优先事项。
- 伊朗坚持对抗立场，外交对话前景渺茫，可能继续军事报复。
- 北约需修复内部裂痕，否则联盟有效性将受质疑。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市承压
能源价格飙升 / 企业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产抛售
北约内部分裂 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动增加
来源
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOenB5SlRRNUV6NHphaFY0R0lraWlzNVVJMTU5UVRlZGlGZnJMTnRuQkthQTljUkZ5ZDRxbDNJanJ2Y19LWUJqdjV2WXUxdXpoc09HcTU4NmZhS1dqc2ZnTlFiaFBjanRmZlNoZzlybjJKNGxQVHRCOHdXWHNkdUFyUGdDenkteUF0dXgtM24xcnBTd0NZZnY5RVJmXzIzN1ZxN2xGNklUNktzMmJMcUhrYtIBtgFBVV95cUxNR1RCUHlVcnJ5R1ptMFBMMWtxa2l2SERnR016ZEJBY0xXZENsSWoxcXowRmVLNTZ6MVg4UjNQR2FfUUlQdXBYWmZFQ2NjdUZ2WmFEaUdGSjJYSng3SGRiN3JYSFdvMHhvMjJOdGQ3YXhNcEo1SzBsbDFZZ3pNOUlUTVViQ1J3WFlPTjZ6ZWg4UVBTRFRZWTVVSFdxWXh4amVMMWx
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-natanz-nuclear-facility-hit-by-us-israel-tehran/live-76462692?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/635767-iran-war-destroy-nato/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQVEZnZGJQU0pGcTExb2l3ZWh5SGNLeXJZdGI4eHJneGRxRTVuM05INXEzWWd4V3NNRTNXMnE0b2diQXZCRFNqTGNyVTBLMDhRdU5iakVqRjhSd25VRHVqX05xcDNYVnlkbG9QdkY3TklXa0Z2eVEzSGNBdXktMzh2blRtUU1odzRpS3prV0V2VQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-iran-military-attache-and-four-team-members?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/iran-strikes-towns-near-israels-nuclear-site-in-escalating-tit-for-tat?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOR2lrdEJGdV9VNWlrWWNzbFJhMlZTbDNPSjFmNzJuODN3MzBodndkd0I0dHZvWDNDRDc5SnYtdDNMVkpRaUJJNEtjc2xzdlBNelBjekNpT2Z4aFktUGRpdmJkQ0VBNGVVQUJDY2ZWZTh2SGRIc2Y5c3dxSXBIVVNFOG1lUHNPUQ?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNYk5oblh1ejY5YnJGbDFTQTUyaXZ2MDV6QUJRU2pPemM4bmJQVWowd0NsT1hxbmRSa1JXX0xKWkhPSVV2T05ySXZJNHJPQ0I1VWdtdlZZQ1JVU19NbjhuMkU5T3JKVWFUZmZZenlBZHlteUtWdm5uc2FMX251dUJRVzZpdU1ETThVVU1ySEg3U2VLeHBraDBVTUNTMFBjejl3NTRrUjZveFBDNGQ2YXM3MGl0VE13cVFsT0xjOWlVeHBXS1Rt?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/state-of-emergency-declared-as-iranian-missile-hits-arad-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/us-says-it-has-crippled-iranian-threat-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOZTBKLU8wNmJnX2wwQmRDQmUwXzFFOGN5a1NFU2NBckQ3ZUV0SWJPNkYzRERhMDVBNHNmWDNWNnZUeFNkRnZEbDd3cG9CN0RlaHJmUVhQc0RRZWFMMWJQV2gxdEZ2bXBXdlBNYXhoQldEcTVMV2EtRXByWlVrbGdYcmZmSzZtMW5iVF9kNnRxWUV3MElMMGFtcFlLYWd6LTgyWVlHYXBuWTB4UzRDMkhV?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNYmRtY3N4SWpBdERQM2sxSk50ZWVsN1Q3ZmstTDdCM0dNM0dsaW80WlliTTAzQ1oyOWdXZEZIek4ta2JQZW9XX3lmTkZhalM5SVFhQ0IwemdETWhLN1k3T3YtOHc1Sm9jSGFHSnNQbVhRdG01bmFKRmR6QnBCV1VoR1NndEhTTWFnekFLWlN4cEJ3ZUZheVVEYmtCRnRKXzhGZ1RwWUt1ZWNUendWRnZaMmRjMDlTYjREaGJrMGZrbHg4QQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9PY0h2QzNpNTdxaGI5eWJ5SE05US1rMEdQX213MGdIeWF6eFB1bFBxQWZUM1RjOEpBQm9NeEpHekpXZmZLWldjMmN1bllEZk5jUktTeWxsb3ZIMXp2?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxORmV1TE01QU9sR19VLVR6aURXTzAtVFV6dk90b3FTOXZtcnZQYkM1bjVheTJBVklNbFhpVE54dDFrT29KWl9FZ1B3a3RqdmJXMkktWVluQzBSMlM1QlhmcXpLSmY5T0M4VFpzWElIeF84MXVsRE1LdFIyMEozVjZmd0w2WDl3MmM5eUZTcExPX2VqOGdDZXlSQ0liLUlwY0JZ?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE1jRGZTUnJBRzJkVGdEbHV6TVlzbU1IS2cyeWt4UjhsUms5QVRWX20ydVVkWVN6aWlzOFdMVVhWT3JOT2sxS2J0aU9FLUVjSDRCRS16MEttQnJydzZL?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOV0ZCVlJKLTM2NFJwX3ZJT1Y1aXNwNW02eXl5dVJvZXU0QnBOM2lHakgyaklXLUVnX0NLVlp2M3FVRHdueEp6TFdUeHVYakI4Rm53Y3V2YVZBU0pVWUtyeWp1S2phNDZlTHNid1lvSG8tSld3S1M3UzZqSTNSMXlrbmxsX0FtMTVVblVLbHR2YTc4YTNUQTk0SXVCYWVzcjAtVnZPMXoyNVBBb0JyeTY0aE1Uck9YQQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQMGpleDBJbHI1bVNsXzZGSDZRV0xqV0dnOXV6ZHlMRjRmSFhHMDh0bXJOT3ZoSnJ5NEdzMFY3SFdFeDE1S3VMakhJa2o3aXZoT05zcnpCcXcyQlp3dzVjVElOU0dUdVl5WXo0TUdvRzlLd1pUOUR3YVhCT0ttc2FKUl9NS3FGd2t2MEZtUmdlTUFlejRoYzR0MDRlWnBwakw1UnlheEx5LS1fX005UzhqM0Z2UdIBuAFBVV95cUxNT2FDODNFRkZtSkgxNk5adk93MEI2aTRvdXR3VDZFZkRiYURzN0lRTGdHV2JlRGxWb1liTzVFX3lzLUpaTmJUYnZySmxSbG5rUlBVTmN0aDhzYkY3TXhIdjljd0NvT2dGQWczbXFwMEl1MHBxa1d1bXlxM28ySG8yb0VLU1I4aFZkeGJweHRnR1JRNVlCM3QwYS1Hd1V1bE1
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQWXNaYUpMSHBaQnM0a2Z2MGlfOUg0RmJMR09TSUE5ODVPQ2pqTG9JVVJBVFJyQ2RZYlgzZEhLRUFOdkpYTWRLc1owYUptMjNfQnFfcmNlankxTWdUbzF3T2hQSHp3bTF3cVlSbW1EVkdsVV9lZlRoc2JRM0t5aGF1SG1ZTW84YS1raUt0WGQwNG44YnBzMGljZEFVWmJkZ9IBowFBVV95cUxOUGY4SXRpMGJyRm5UUVVsU1J5NF9OeWxUWjc3dDFyWDZGUi1OWC1uRERQNWc3RFFNX29WTUtReGwyR2JmdHdZZ0JvSnVpZmZJVVNIRnZOQTl6VFBSaTc1dmo2aWN1bVBaS2gwbEtaaGlXSFU3VUo4VnZUMkVwa3NvTGk2YVpSbm9QQ0VnRENsSnp6TE80SmpaeUVyM2ZPclpnTG53?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/eu-urges-members-to-start-storing-winter-gas-as-iran-war-causes-price-surge?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635748-how-far-could-gulf-conflict-spread/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNVWlPb3NHWEZYUV9FTjBCVndXbFNZVnFyWXRNbHJDU1JnNlRXbmhqb2g1UjR5a2xQcmNIZWJCMHVKelA1YXk5NEFnTmdfakhETnUxUmVhazIxSTNUUmtHTVpJMklkOHdMUEVHZno1cEJ1NGREMTBURTJEOTV2Zy1YYU5YaURjb1RqcEhMYWxiWFJaeWxVZFBIaEhhZ2pxOTREQTR1TmFPRlJoMDBCeWUyWkRoU1Ftd0NGVkY2dlI4dnE4UQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-teheran-sieht-keinen-anlass-zur-diplomatie/a-76449132?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/israels-regierungschef-netanjahu-der-iran-wird-dezimiert/a-76447499?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/us/politics/battle-for-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-us-israel-choke-point.html
- [26] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/opinion/iran-war-trump-lying.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxQOXk3X1NwMHZYN0w1dmM3eDZkd1FVeDFLM2tsU0V1eGhqdE9RTmpPZ0RKb1NvdlM3VzlON2R3U3RzQU5vbEZHT18xQU0wQkZFZVZPQ05XUW5rS1lsdS1wQWhpaTBoTlZpNzlhYzZzN3R6R2szOHZjd2UtUklKMUNERWJkaTgybkFXbTdXOG1ta1RRQlFOaFU2bg?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/uk-says-iran-missile-attack-on-diego-garcia-failed?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQV2FMRkxCdzFTXzRNTHYyOWhyTXo3TDJ3b3M0MmpRMjRvVlNLRG1FMGNyUFQxRWFoNlRNbDBaYnA2Z1ViRVM4dmZuM043d0FZR3gyUkUzLU10NjdvRE44VU9ST3h5cGdqVmo0ZGdjWHBvcUM3ZmVjaW1WZzMtNVY3aHpFNXQ5Qk84V29vYU1renF6SWdJcTNxSkFGbEs2Zkg5ckwwV0dVc0E4Y3d4Yk5ydVNsZjRPWDVwYTkzQkJ2MHFLRXVX?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104133-war-update-43-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-most-intense-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
2026-03-21
2026-03-21
进展要点
- 美国解除部分伊朗石油制裁，旨在增加全球供应以稳定油价
- 美联储关注数据中心推高通胀，可能维持高利率政策
- 七国集团协调释放战略石油储备，应对能源市场波动
- 国际社会呼吁缓和局势，但军事行动持续，政策协调不足
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 美联储政策收紧
能源设施袭击 / 天然气价格飙升 / 工业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 股市下跌
地缘政治风险 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 全球资产配置调整
来源
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/03/19/joint-statement-leaders-canada-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260320-guerre-au-moyen-orient-faut-il-craindre-un-choc-gazier
- [3] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/20/42592
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/635536-iran-israel-qatar-war-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE1aakJWRHJxUEJERGhITlRxS3ViX19sYlltZVl4ZVBLMU93bFJ1Q0k5SWtpWFBUazlHN2x2bU5GdXcxM0dyMU82Qm9tQzhQTnZUVEZtd2xn?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-considering-winding-down-iran-war-but-rules-out-ceasefire/article70767398.ece
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-donald-trump-erwaegt-nach-eigenen-angaben-militaereinsatz-gegen-iran-zurueckzufahren-a-ada3a0c1-bf0d-44a1-a66d-48a23b3223ff
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-trump-says-us-close-to-meeting-objectives-opposes-ceasefire-with-iran/articleshow/129709333.cms
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260321000353315
- [11] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/uk-allows-us-to-use-bases-for-strikes-on-iranian-missile-sites/article70767389.ece
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE02b180dHpSREozbXl6aUtXazlWMWVsX3FRUUQ2ajZBUF8zSk8wUnMyLVBQTXNWbGRSUlNObzNFYjQ3MXdfMTVkZGQ5eExKc19VT3B5RQ?oc=5
- [13] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/jerome-powell-says-blame-data-135528565.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQbzljM25ZTGhrbUF5R2RCbXF2SEFmS09GRGNoUHBaci1yQUwtVjZ4N1hMWXdEbGFpUnR2a0VEdzlFa3dBODllYlFyMnBtYzE1ZmdVcV9vdUNoX2hPeUZoaFQ4dE4tejhrY2lGRFRUX0NmUXhDaTVzRG9jUFJjVE9QYWZZZHp3Vi05ak1IQml1LXQwTTE3OElXaEppaHBQSWpVT0NRTnRvVGk?oc=5
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260321/945422910d2849e09b2b921213e0d9f5/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxOdWxHRGNTTnpjZlUxTS12aU9UalFlaWtfblctTVluZFJlaTFyRU9SWGM0d3FtZVAwTEpQaWhqT09iUWpaLUNSbkt1eXJlVnB3UmRGUlZ5QjZYSEhOTGNGWHZ3TmJMY3UzSk42azZ5dlo1MmhsSnBybnJuNERfbnpNSmNINTFBOTZEb0FUUlFwNk5HTGhFa2xremlnQUNjUlVGS29uVkctZUhJeTVZaVNUQ19kMi0xUWVyeXVscVVRR0x3TktfTGJUbg?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxORHZrQk1BTFNOV2h1Y1FDV2pPeV9BeHVvVnZNWTdxOGlpWnBCOFlHQnhtamcyUW1tREd6SzVOSmM4UXZ5UjJXWGFHZ0tSZmNacG9jWlJPanIzTm1ETXBlbHZJMmo4b1lvWnFzd3NmaDJHaGxIZy1MSy02cHQ4bE4zNFJSZVlQOTVTTDNyS2dBTC1uMFZwTHg1OTJvSXpQbEZlTVVGdmdveFhXcHVEdW91bGlPd2FmMWlaU0tZ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/03/19/declaration-conjointe-des-dirigeants-de-lallemagne-de-la-france-de-litalie-du-japon-des-pays-bas-et-du-royaume-uni-sur-le-detroit-dormuz
- [19] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1048858/irgc-iran-nyatakan-juru-bicaranya-tewas-dalam-serangan-as-israel
- [20] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/ran-threatens-global-tourist-sites-as-us-boosts-forces-amid-escalating-war/article70766856.ece
- [21] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-usa-west-asia-trump-netanyahu-live-updates-march-20-2026/article70764069.ece
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-authorises-us-to-use-british-bases-for-strikes-iran-missile-sites-targeting-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-/articleshow/129708297.cms
- [23] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260320011500315
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/20/military-movements-indicate-trump-is-considering-iran-ground-operation?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/20/aje-onl-aj_tt_irn_whatdoeseudo_av_v2-200326?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4103929-russian-forces-intensify-pressure-across-multiple-frontlines-as-weather-shifts-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36rny6xgppo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPSnQ0UDZwS2cyZlZwNFoyVF8teHlLb0Ywekt0TlQxdnFFeXVDRG44THZJMHltMGFSa3dGV1JVc3Y1SlJVUm4tM25RWVM4SDNmcXByZkZidTkwcmpaZEx1Y2R5NzRXU2lPZnhSQkVYUDhva3Q4X3Myc3p2Tl9PNGdNOHJoa25kQ3NyUlVKSWg0Q2ZZaEN1Mzd1dkFlaXg4cVQ0LVdSeDNTX0JZd9IBrwFBVV95cUxOU3VyWWdnczEwTGhoUkJGU21DNUQzVnlCelhSbV83MlQzR3NzYVlpYTQ5UmRzcXd4VTB1QUtjd1NDUldEVEc3akhFVzBCdDZCS1pqbHROMmFKVnBDOGp3eURMcUxTajNxcFRyNjh6Ynlrd2hRbGQ2cWxNci1wbE53SWI0bkVBYTNPRVRFRm9MODFXNnNCWlUxMVhJLVZ6UzZJcWdTRFVkQVJ
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOSTQyRFM1dE03MXExaXc0LUJRcEdMTlhJSXFIbTRwSVdKcGVkbVJmUXdzQ2FELTJydXVKVXNhV1RIdXdhdkpac2lJeWl4VGNsXzV1dHMyMHpEMmdrbkVLQXByZG5PRlB4UjZ4UkhieGhmZ0tzdXdJTGxUNXJERXlBQUN2dVFXR3ItNTFnMEktdzZuOUQ4ZTRRMDcwcXNxZkJkTndjbWdzd2doVnNkTm9fbFFpR25QSzA2ZDFGVmRMNjhzbkxZVTM1TUI4M21NaVVPM1lKVUJIQ091VHZz0gHiAUFVX3lxTE4wSkFiaXg0MVFmOGh1MEN6b0N5V1FSZUVqb0FiUzNtZy1Qa3dRT3VHaFNqNzRRYUt4aUE0ckU2S0kzQXlhZWtxZXAzN1R6eFBBTEJPYlhYS0R3UlpTV0pqb1hFT0hiMWxDRld4cG5BQ3Jab0EyYnR
2026-03-20
2026-03-20
进展要点
- 美国财政与军事政策矛盾：财政部拟放松伊朗石油制裁以稳油价，而国防部寻求巨额战争拨款，两者效果可能相互抵消，增加政策不确定性。
- 美国国会成关键变量：2000亿美元战争拨款请求面临共和党内部分歧，通过与否及规模将影响战争持久力和财政前景。
- 欧洲坚持独立外交与多边主义：预计将继续与美国的中东激进政策保持距离，并寻求稳定自身能源供应的替代方案。
- 全球央行陷入两难：能源价格上涨推高通胀，但地缘风险压制增长，主要央行（Fed, ECB）可能延长观望期，而部分新兴市场央行（如菲律宾）已开启降息周期。
- 能源干预工具待命：美国释放战略石油储备（SPR）的可能性上升，成为平抑油价的潜在政策工具。
关联路径
中东能源设施遇袭 / 油气供应物理中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策更趋谨慎 / 增长预期下调
美国政策分化（增兵 vs. 松绑制裁） / 能源供应前景不确定性增加 / 油价波动率上升 / 通胀与增长预期模糊 / 资产定价混乱
美元指数大幅走弱 / 资金流向非美资产 / 欧元、英镑等货币升值，新兴市场资本流入压力减轻 / 全球风险情绪局部回暖
地缘冲突升级 / 传统避险资产（黄金、美债、美元）与战争相关资产（能源、国防股）获得资金关注 / 市场内部轮动加速
来源
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-last-24-hours-show-a-prolonged-conflict-could-do-calamitous-damage-to-global-economy-13521949
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/635540-israel-iran-chain-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPWmJURWNuNE1qQXlDVW9CZ1VsdXg5bFFDazhKdTczM2FNcS1BRzB4YTNSbVcydkZQWFJ6OEZlMk5EbzFzVnpOUlNDVnZQd2hVc053d1QtR2pBUHBPbl8xNzVNVnBtWEdtVFc2RnZldlVvUGU3Z0NUY2QzU1Z6TEd1c0tDUWNhOGlDSExHQ25ydUZSMmloYncyVF9HMWRLYTTSAaQBQVVfeXFMT185TFFjVUItV29qMHhGRmlSRWpMaU9oVzV6RHgzYk0ycjJLZFBHNlRITXhQbWlzdFBNZ2p2MW9BaWJsekJxRHhvTWVPYmRwdWhhTk9lUXh4WDBOZXFtajhuRjN5QWRZNE5OMHhUWndXa3lZQ1BxZFBwbXR2bXhUWndzQ1ZLa1cwRjlydzBHWTFERjExeUs2bTFySzYxd0w4VmhZTVU?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1wM0VKYWFMRnNkN3VCZkwwU0RqdUJadHhzTnVpeEdwaFFBUENvcWlEb0dFTTFmWXQxZDBnMmFXcFN4SjJuMzlfUGt5QkhBNjctRWFQb2lDZjJKZXluVWhhT0lMSkEtRzIxRnRrcXAzNE5nU19MQXVIdw?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxNVFZrODBQekpaMWh5Z1ZGbmlGcjZwNUxzb3BQOTlmQlpIVmgzeHZmZFRTUjk5QldEbDVDakZjZWV1aVEzOThxVjc5cjVsaWl6cFNPRmZBa0o0eEVSU21kcHNISkJqUS1ZNGVibkJZUTJzdzVNYy1lZ2FwZ1JkN3Vlb1JKcWVobzQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQSW95TzhWVVJJWG50bTRTME5QRHJqeTM5TW95ZXhHTGJwQW9mY25FaXJCUVhpb1ltc0NkX0U0OWV2Z3lVSkxfN3lha1JLNjRFQ1NfQ19MUTBQRENKdFVNbDNZNkd3VGlQcXhFXy1MWmVaaUt4Uk1kY2hzUXRMb1d4WHh1cFdyZmgxbmg1XzBvNkd0VFJ1VlhLQ0VDdjY2RFBxaVlIYlhqZktHODR6WUhGeA?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/635572-invasion-incoming-lebanon-braces/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/635565-eu-energy-tsunami-dmitriev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2k3jgy9vq3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOak42eXk0ZnZVMURLQUp6N29pWFp4LTFydHpLQ21XUTNMOUI2LWdiXzRKUGpjS0hlZ2NhZ1VBb0N1M0o2cXpzcllFTTRPUy0yalZRbTl5aUJrZGFkTmFLSXdRSmZFdy1TelUzOXRobmFVbnQ1TEJlaFIwZURrTjVJMWw2eXgwVmFKN3hVNWhiQm5JbjNqRUdqcDUwRjFJTkFBMUU4UXA1Y0VwaGpRdzZVUjFQbw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOZm05M1lGcFZGVEVReFcyb3pUWjlEdjRhVHNEeHJYNGhMSHh2b0JLVVZ3eGFzdFNRcWFxekR0clBLNVlYRjl3VFNLYTZ3ZEZNRkwxcUdOamdTU1UzWGVQVXJ2SVBCYTJabmFfdEowZkk5SGotUzUzT0lPV0NSQTN4eUpNclg3QnNpQVpZ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/netanyahu-says-irans-uranium-enrichment-abilities-destroyed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOY3NCMFFRSk1hc1p3enhncl9PTEFaNk5CVzh6MUdONFhWajhyX1oxUmlPT2I0akNjM2hYeHQzQ2NEdTlaZm5EVkxSdEQ0RnlpOE9TRG4yZkhpNTUzRWlFdUcwa3IzdGhZeGsya0FqTWN5X2ZUV0JlQ3l2Sm9RQTk0RXN1YUZqRWJob0wyS0hIOXpzdWxHMm1yRUJvWHA4d1dWMFp3MjV2cWhkNEdDVEpmTFRoaVJ6UHdfRHBKTEdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/19/how-will-israels-decades-long-assassination-policy-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260320/aa83628e1d4b4717abc8aeb37835e488/c.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOd2Y1WG9fV0tUOExiVW44aHZJS1pKeHZxXzA4TE1kUFdHOHN2YVpnXzFWdFEwSmZQMElYV2FHaHYyUy0zcklRLXRMN2oxTFZ6UThXdnZHTWI3Z0tfdHNtUW41RUxfUVFnbXdlTVhzNkREWC1wSDFiRDBCWHFvRzh4T195Y0FTR1pUTEhOSmJucTNKNWxYRER1NWdyZW84MVB2S1NTRnhzSFZGUkQ2N3A5QdIBtgFBVV95cUxOZDBjWTNKZ2pMMmdmd1dJVm9GbkR2ZDVFQkxBSDA4SXpQODVMNnM5M2trRV83N1luZFJXTXBlNUU3Nml3SDhub0xWQkRvaUlmMVNJTlJ3UHNPcG9WdjNLbUxKWWdaaGpLSTRibXpQNlBNX0JrcFpINDhGS1NBWG1fR0ZKUGtiNkxjUTZlTGw2eWRZMDJjZ2ZpNzRPcVc5cHViU3I
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQUGZKYzlydEdoTGdkSkRqbzg1RU91VzdKY05qdGVPa05CcnlWdGtYS2I1Y0hhZkRUWlZIdlBKNlctaHYwNVJzellDX2t0cTZHNkFMTklvS2Q0d2xkQ3N0MjFPN1hKamczZGdwU09RY2FtSy04bm1OM3JTMk51YTdJZWFNUDRxdmJNWHpkOUlHdlFwZVVUZlN0ajdvZEZ3NzFlclg2NW9tbHJ0V3lkc1HSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlpBU1JtbG5EM0tmTXprTloxZW1vRXN3d1dHcHYtUDVManJFS09abUpjS2dONzY0SlJBS21fcjBmdU1kYzc0d0NhaHp5NzBBbkdkTWYyWHhmOHk5M1dhdUZDT0JiWVRDQzhQby1jUVJhM3ZnalBjZHNHT3VNX0l2bXpqNmw0cjZzNTJKTmNEZVJBeHpiczF0YnZYcHY0NnRzSXhGbmR
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/trump-invokes-pearl-harbor-to-defend-surprise-attack-on-iran
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA1REoyQjZ2WDdyZVdTeVZsVTN1TTZfUE5wdi14QVZyU3RyblAzLWkwNXdibjNVaDZpa3BSOWxBZ3I0MzdRUGp5Z0N1ZWF4YjktZVBkODhvalNTUkRYTWxQMzM0Njlxd2s?oc=5
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/635548-who-nuclear-catastrophe-iran-us-israeli-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635550-us-help-ending-unlawful/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635571-saudi-arabia-threatens-military-action/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/smoke-rises-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel-oil-refinery-in-haifa?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/irans-strike-on-qatar-gas-facility-will-reduce-supply-for-3-to-5-years?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://unric.org/fr/onu-et-la-guerre-en-ukraine-les-principales-informations
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/df75ca68d5a7da27.html
- [29] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/b4a912bebbbbdbf0.html
- [30] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-debate-us-bases-military-alliance/a-76414229?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
2026-03-19
2026-03-19
进展要点
- 美联储维持利率不变，未来决策将依赖通胀和就业数据，中东局势增加不确定性。
- 美国放宽委内瑞拉石油制裁以增加全球供应，应对中东冲突带来的油价压力。
- 加拿大央行维持政策利率在2.25%不变，区域货币政策保持稳定。
- 中东冲突可能迫使各国调整外交和能源政策，包括国际协调和制裁措施。
- 美联储提及中东局势对经济影响不确定，可能影响未来政策沟通。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
美联储利率不变 / 市场预期兑现 / 美元稳定和全球资产重新定价
避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市和风险资产承压
地缘政治风险 / 区域安全担忧 / 避险资本流动影响新兴市场
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
- [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318b.htm
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNR3J4NDFISFF6T0kzdlJHRVk2OXBLYzBLOU5vd2Vnd0E4aVJ4UFlnbDVWVk95VVg1RkotVnpfRHp3ZTR0NlBaeHRLQkJmN2E1b1hJUWtoOFVPNVZSa2wzTC1HOTZsVXQ4RlhvZjJpSEU1UUxzcjFwdzE1YzdYckU3MkZCVUhCZUcwRVJRZkJYRm1wMDkyRkt0WHRXbHU1RE8wcTJPRQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1tVnlOakNMOWNBeHY4ZEZ2YUNJcm1fa0lwYUp2enhhMk42LVU1YTdVN1Fkc3VRUzJrQ25iTE1BWW83X3g0TzBXMkRycTdNcmUtcU55SEhOX3A0T1gyZ1liQ1hfUnNOWS1JLU1hd0RQa3g1SUpMUG43Ug?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPVHE4X3NRdDRKd0g0Nnk5ZHB6WlFRdno4WmxLaEllMzQwM2R5aEozYzhXbFAwOHNYOVNyYmpidTc5WTlxdnNUWkdUS3ZNdUdmMGxYMVdjSnl4ZXpEZFQyTlJPSnAwU1RQOXQ5SWtlNjVVNEZFNS1vM3hvMGVvemhteUwwdGlWQQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/opening-statement-2026-03-18
- [7] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE02WGtUSTZvd0JlblNhWEZSOWhnb25vOGduUnZNdXM2NlFoVzJjcjRZa0lyU3NxX0FvTmxNRjc5d1h6Z01wYnZkQmREUVl2RmNZclhVd1N3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589119.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589120.shtml
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPMjVEUTJYMC1BVTVmVHlzdWcwRFZYMy1jbjByTHVuNUNEbVoyTzBweGNKTkhLM25WMTl2OHZaNXdEOHZQaFF2bTR0OGV2RFRxbTVNUjNoTFdnYnowcDlrRnFjbXZKS1RnN21FRUxPczhQUXE5b01QNTkzSXJRdzBpMlZkMzY1VVEzRE03X3J6a0FZaThfb3d4RG5vY003Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/e04604ffe1ac44368326e7851d83b5c9/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/635458-qatar-iran-israel-gas-field/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/us-fed-keeps-interest-rates-steady-amid-economic-geopolitical-uncertainty?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNRmVjTnI1V3hDTXFoeDg2b3N2dXFHN2RNSS0zMmpjSHEtZm1uMVNtc2dzeXpXcHZZS0sycllGcVRuVVE5Si1vS2JFV0JnbXJGbVhUT3k5dU9XeUlLNklUbC1JQmlOUWdSUms4eWxHVVlhM0x5WEJuRVVaODdoNmVmcE9PUURyODZfTXI5ZFh0RDk2MzQzcVlGdG00THh6WjNESWFv?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/oil-prices-surge-after-israeli-strike-on-iran-gasfield-irans-threats?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/18/israel-attacks-irans-major-gas-field-in-new-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/qatar-says-iran-missile-attack-sparks-fire-causes-damage-at-gas-facility?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5lc3FVRHNRZUVLakw3bUdsamVoWi16ejB4UHM2STgxQ2ZRcy1BcGFSQk1aUF96cWRuN1Rpa2wwcjVSSlBKMmxuTjRqQUZ0WnJleHNENHg1SnRudw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/c4c0f387210b408aa707a72cdffef069/c.html
- [21] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/84180bbbcd7e8151.html
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36364d06x3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/4d2a6afdb40a47df8b989ac5bd9813be/c.html
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2d1dz14k51o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPYV83RFlCb19LTWxsUnRHQ09lYmloQWthRHNMX0wzbWNpbU4xVFZEOGdUaDJWcFVlNjFDQXlyMHpuS2RCNnJpbk1lQS02bE9KZDlnNjdkZzNjc3E2aHdNLUtFd3pOT0dfQmZ2WjFOelRyODYwT1lKaHVEcUE1aVp5U0I3N2lQOEZ6b0JrcHhYY1lHNDZHa3hPLWdCdEg?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNbV9scnVOenFHVWJFYWdZYTFrTWVHM2lPLXdQRGF3azFrTFNJVVUwYXFCYk5lUk9oWi1wSTY0dVFFeHBhRHltc2ItemNZeXByS1A5TTFoRWdYR20weUhaZi13OWszX1ZKdi1oZ0VsNUd4UWM5RHNyYXBnRnNnVjlwMlVIRzU4ZG1UZ3VpVGhiclFhQy1oak01OVE4cDA3STRod2taQnkySQ?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWWZCT3pudllWSmc2Ukd6ZVNvQVhNaUhfS2RzMXlnLU1KVUxNeXRLQzFacWNaTVJBQ2liRXFIaHJwWjJrWV95WDB4Z3NzUUlLYWZYY3d3WENRZno5cWhoVDJyb2tOTmh6Y2dpRGFQU2EtOEVPNUJYekdMWHJGeW1LVk9YYUJKd2Nm?oc=5
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-iranian-intelligence-minister-killed-by-airstrike/live-76402968?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260319001319INl
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260319000114lZ5
2026-03-18
2026-03-18
进展要点
- 美国可能采取单边军事行动保障霍尔木兹海峡，但面临战略风险和盟友反对。
- 欧洲推动外交解决方案，避免直接军事介入，侧重与伊朗谈判重开海峡。
- 国际能源署持续释放战略石油储备，但每日仅100-200万桶，难以对冲结构性供应减少。
- 韩国考虑快速编制补充预算和宪法修订，以应对能源冲击和经济不确定性。
- 美联储鹰派预期因通胀压力持续，美国个人消费支出数据显示防御性消费者态度。
- 全球央行可能因油价上涨而收紧货币政策，加剧经济放缓风险。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡受阻 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀飙升
美欧联盟紧张 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
石油价格上涨 / 消费国经济放缓 / 货币政策收紧 / 股市承压
地缘风险升级 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流动变化 / 新兴市场货币贬值
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317215555sNj
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2164557d89594613a56d64d4fdd26f58/c.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nato-making-mistake-on-hormuz-trump-says/live-76387955?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQdUZpanFtQVFoMUo0RzVkazYxSjBackI3eWhlM21kQ0IzbG03RkxFa2UzUzYxRGJmN3dWSGlTZ0ZucldxaHlKanNaV3MyQ3RRaUhQMjdGT0xOQ0JVdFJuQzM4RS0tM0Y5MDBFUXhDa1VQemt0SWdUR05jOGJPN2RCWnJZcnkyNGFuMmhvc3NUNU42dkxJVDl4aHhmaElyZWRWUW9UbnZYV29OQQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588466.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588451.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588470.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOQVYwc3g1SHBTQUFKYTFtRjJKTDJXcThDbF93bUl2VC1yLUU2RS0teTdUUGpQV1I4S05YWHVyOWlicm9rS3MwV081LWlEQUt6blN4OGRZczBCNlFlOTVPZ3c4akNBcmFrSHBIMGNZV2k0emUxcmlhaWtZZW5BM2FWeHlvXzJfWFVtNUR3UUI5cVhubDRLVUdxaWJTVkNqY2l0?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxQc1RpU1hvdmJZaC1NNE02TlBBUE5uNFFndUJ4MmxlREZCZkhEOHY2aTkxTEota05ScXZ4ZXU1M3BscVUyNTJ4VnZJTVNYM1JHT3p0eUdTUGRsRmUtMlEyRzFPcTB1bEQ2QzlXOVhVVWVhQldBTEdIYk1OQ0hjMmtkbEp6MWcyaExoWDBEd0RiTEFNZU5uaG83alIwMNIBoAFBVV95cUxQRDFlVTY5TGtrN2lWSVFWdGhmY2FRcWZmS21mTm5xYnozZE8xQmVzNl95RXRBUjZuS29BdTQ4eGpKU1lPejBsNjMxdWFXSGEycUMya21WN24xUEYxN1c4YmZudURUUV9sLW5XN0VIYkV1eE03bXgtNm1fRDBRUjVQajlPUlRTbW1ZWUZoZno2cDVKT214cmw2UV9CWTZTMjAx?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260318080325mSr
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260318073426Hym
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/trump-says-us-does-not-need-strait-of-hormuz-help-despite-appeal?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/iraqi-capital-baghdad-rocked-by-powerful-blasts-near-us-embassy?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5tREFqY2plYjg1dUhxaDg4Yk1wV0YwMElCdGlkY0pzT0sydV9CQzNTWDllaWZEc0ZHMzVwbVp6Wk5MdjczXzZSUk85aUtvUExUNW9KWHZJQjBKUQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/4302adf7471c2579.html
- [16] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/f4a871322e6de0b7.html
- [17] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/c81778311ad21c48.html
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/635334-us-counterterrorism-chief-resign-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6AFBVV95cUxQTDRXZmp2NV93VjdiNXFHX1hVT3RUOVZZaENaX2g2NmNGOFFTeDZFb3ZYdnVrQjE0YmdtaTZxc0JJQ2l4UzFFQTh5a2UwTm5xd0hOZDJfZzJWdS1MUjZkNVM0OTU3cm1OQnozUGc2WU5BakhCVVBzUkZGMEQyOU5JeV9nYm44V0hNeDZzUmtMSHQxZVVvZlA5OUlFVE5qYkd3dDVJRXRCR3o1ME5rSDlLOEwzX1V2QUJGYlJncFZDZWt6cXJKX0hMbUczV1V1b0hMRElIU0RHemxEU205YU5sbDZza2lwamQ2?oc=5
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-am-17-maerz-israel-verkuendet-toetung-von-ali-larijani-a-148e4932-3432-49aa-af78-69f4531254d0
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24deezq6meo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxQdlhXdlMwTi03LVJFYktIVVRRMUI0QWpGcFdUQkMtYmY3eFBEU1cxT1YtblNDcy1FNGFQLWFzZ3V2N1N4b214LXcwNFQ0b0trNkpDWXY1M29oWUdSR2wxYVRFQ1VjZ0NyZTJFRDJ5T2ZGSU5YM3hSNm5GbWlMV2E4bDRMcEptSzJSLXlxUDV0Tm02N2tOQ1ptWVA3LW1ULTg3akZ3MktlN19FWlZKMjFUQmNjaTM3Mnh5cUNLbFg2b3JWQQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5481950/inggris-susun-rencana-bangun-gugus-tugas-untuk-buka-selat-hormuz
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNRDBZNlFoSEdzZVBFaWRZcmh0QTZuZU5wOXhkR0RpYl9XRlRCczFpNnhqNWJTaHczR3J1d2ZWZy1OM0pOTDAzT2Q4VE1Ub0s0eEg0d0o5U0ZXVlB5SFpuM1k0LVMxajVDRE0xSjlzTWFTM3lRNFZacVQ4YTJjTGREOGxHa1NMOXAwRGdzRGdrVWdsclU?oc=5
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10588412.shtml
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/635309-strait-hormuz-iran-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317214541PMn
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260317212732Gsb
- [29] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2e85c70d1e3f4e53a76f31f0fd6bfb22/c.html
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/17/the-us-israel-war-on-iran-is-shaped-by-religion-as-much-as-strategy?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-17
2026-03-17
进展要点
- 美国可能继续施压盟友参与霍尔木兹海峡护航，但多国拒绝，转向外交压力。
- 中国维持稳健经济政策，支持增长和全球供应链稳定。
- 欧洲寻求外交解决霍尔木兹问题，排除军事行动，关注能源安全。
- 伊朗可能寻求谈判或报复行动，领导层危机加剧不确定性。
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升
油价下跌 / 通胀预期缓解 / 风险资产上涨
中美贸易磋商 / 全球供应链稳定 / 风险情绪改善
中国经济强劲 / 全球需求支撑 / 大宗商品和股市受益
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQdWh6X3pJTzBFT1lrSTRtcU11Tnlza0RJcjRuU290SlFORDUwU25jbW9yRDJfNzgxdy16c0VkNE9FNE8xSzUzLU52UG5SbmJNR2hyeFQyUVpYMnBlQm1FMjhTUGZoZ1JuUlNSTFdLRkZYOHA0TXYwSm40RjBSNzVlUGJlak9uV0xHaHRjd2hFRS1BaU1BRTB0WGJNOVQ4ME1nQ0HSAacBQVVfeXFMT09HU2M2SDhRbkJNZnQ5bEtfRkxLa1ZMWjY2Nl9taWZNV3pfNVpqOEZQWEZncS1LRVc1UlZkNHczQ05TNHRaZzQ0YjFvNlZFTXhJTkM3SFViUmN1UUgycGdRNVlsOTJPamluRjJtWEZ0RnBUajkyOTBkVnlfMXEtZ2tUbmp6dWhRbXpkU0JJWDJLdWdLdWM2WmNwS1V3Z3k0ZkoyWUVhdXc?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/civilians-pulled-from-rubble-after-us-israeli-strikes-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-uae-crude-output-falls-142513245.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587900.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPQ0ZvaGZWQVNDMFIzMXI5NUhpMklaekpDc2hQdmtBT2JPcmU3ajB1NGdRR3R3NEVRc1BFQzNmZXh6RGNjaDVFc3pHYTFTNDJfRHg4OVdxdEFkOUZHMXlrNjZrdC1aZnFEX0xsdlFxRVU3RzlGVm1YTU5UMnF5MVB5Q0lmWHNJMWlU?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/17/iran-war-live-trump-scolds-allies-for-not-joining-strait-of-hormuz-mission?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNTnpRQ3lnb1I5aVoxZWdGWFZNQ0pHUjR6TzhRSFNkWTdwQlJhV0g3clJuUzgtYlVYOFRLVkU5dkZpLVNYM3ZRVjlqWUtSaUxVbFNsSE9QcldwcllnTTVQSEFkc2lxVkZaQm00TGlhWTk0aWc3Z2ttb2F2RURjSHZ3TGZaWFN1V3FOcy1jeWpsMkxod2EyZnZxbVBvcEJqRjhHUGYwSWt3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/02bbfec081c846b680c3488a1237b614/c.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/trump-operation-epic-fury-anger.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075910BRH
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075936Fc3
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587873.shtml
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-17/10587870.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587875.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587872.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNNWpWbzhtaHpYdUl3VmRyYmJzN0ZmSzhYV28xelo1OHpvOXRUYTR3aHVPbzdVNkFoMlNxRVo0alNHaE1zSm00ZXB2Ty1MSHExTklLMFVZTVo5LVljYmlBMFpWS0VfRi1sNzB4UVJaMlMyNVpDa2lPNkFrRUFJazBJUXJrdC1VRmozWXBQMTdFWmZpWVpiNWZoQS1QVXFqQWJHQk5xSjFuMWRRR05pdXd3OXotUmdaRGhGR2c?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/trump-claims-strikes-on-iran-prevented-nuclear-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOcXpYNzBzOFFQejJnR1hBandJdzVtMjk1NU9qMG5IWk80NHZrODBqN3V5dHJRSUYwSU5RRDNITmh5dXpuXzQyWU9jaS1zVUExXzNuSzUwYXpYVzc4Rk81bGhqU3liYU51WWI1MG1fbU9LX2lkTXBFb09wRUpxa25nTHIxMzViQkg1WDhTUVNiOGZkWms4NGRHck9QT2xKcjdvR3k1SDAwVUJ0VUE4V0Ffb0N3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-seeks-to-delay-meeting-with-chinas-xi-by-month-or-so-amid-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOMlRvSmdFeGxqMHZLY2NyZjI0cWc1UlEyTUNaRTR4WjlBWC1nVnNTRXVpQjhJWE9aWDUtWlUzTDZKMnp3WlZoOHByNmoycFczbldhWlFHNmp3S1VwNW9NN0EyeTRSQzliZkVuVjBleVhIUlc1dXNYanlCVHRMcTRpSE16dngzeWdPenpGeUk4T29Ma1JJaFpR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOM3NSSUFQSGc4THo3NHVTMWNSRkpoMnpnLXNvTk4yYlBrSXpydG0wY3k4NkdBMk40ZEpYaXRoQmtrTUFRTkVvdlFHQjd6aV9LMExGRFRGZENxQ1dFU1ItWm0tYTIyVndhcjVqSjFQVkFOUVhOeFEyRVpoQk9QdTVHRzFzLTBTaXJEbnR2Tnh2YVF2ZnF1SzZkRVRsYVRNeUt40gGmAUFVX3lxTFA2bTZUU0RVZUpCU2VzZlVCM0h2czluN2puTnJRZHltRURRMVFDZ09zZ1hHcDQ5ZlF1bXIzTzNicE1ybVNETzJOWDJKRW1oZ2ttNUZHc2NwVlZaYUpRUTFiTXRSSEMzbHVacGFZeXgwTTRmQnJPamdrMUxRbUo1UjNSNFNaSE1DTElhU1VIMVJyZzBxYXJRNlVoV1pSZDZadHlLTFk0b2c?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635249-trump-world-demand-iran-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/abeeed7f095443298ab1350ba00a80b7/c.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/16/how-big-of-a-problem-is-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-donald-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPWm9rX1NfdUFFZ1dZTXhqMGRyZER4ZFp5eXZwV0gwT3p4MEJPR2VQYTJrV18wWjdRMjBiVU5PMkJkUW16NTNnS201dlRBQVJSZjV6eWJhVFdkc2hWOWZyLTFlWmwwX1pPbmVsNDhLQ2duamxDeTZtZmtjUmtlSE5VODVhazFaYkgtcVJ2dzVRdWREaFpkQl91Yi11TFUzQk9TQkR3UjN4eXl6VG1vQVc1Vzg0blRnVFBJQ2RwSmM2OHBRYWZIUVE3TtIBzgFBVV95cUxOTFpwZ2hfM1Vaa01zcC1idm5uaVkza05RTldvdlJzTk04SW56TGFyUXpiRHJmb2xRc0xkUkhkbksxUzN4U1pXZElUS1NidHcxMDM1OGdUblJTSzJVMzI3NDdidDdkbmZmNDBnWk9fNnlqOVhyaDYtdkJ4UUJNbDJSaVREcy1EWks1WHR
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBmUWNHLXBpdldRMVE1S0ozRUpZTEk5TzNHRTlXbURfTnlBOHdQV1l6d3dHMm1mTnJxaUJGQUNKZm1UMV9ETTRaRXpRaw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/israeli-forces-in-southern-lebanon-as-ground-operation-announced?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-says-hormuz-strait-help-on-the-way-as-allies-reject-military-action?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/europe/europe-iran-war-trump-hormuz-warships.html
2026-03-16
2026-03-16
进展要点
- IEA石油储备释放执行情况将关键影响短期油价，亚洲立即开始释放可能缓解供应压力。
- 美国可能进一步评估攻击伊朗石油设施的选项，取决于伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的行为。
- 美中贸易谈判焦点在月底峰会，关注关税调整和稀土出口控制的实质性进展。
- 海湾国家可能加强防空和航运保护措施，以应对伊朗持续攻击。
- 全球央行可能因通胀风险上升而维持鹰派立场，但中东冲突增加经济不确定性。
- 美国301调查进展可能引发贸易报复，影响全球供应链和关税预期。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
美中贸易谈判与地缘施压 / 关税和出口控制不确定性 / 全球供应链中断 / 风险资产波动和避险需求
IEA石油储备释放 / 增加市场供应 / 缓解短期油价压力 / 降低通胀预期和风险溢价
俄乌冲突升级 / 区域安全风险增加 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市承压
来源
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/635086-iran-us-kharg-island/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/moment-iranian-missile-hits-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9YYzNLRkJjdzFUMVNUS1hrQW5kSkVfYU5qa3ZpVnlwSHdDUDNDRU15NFl0OWpWbW9wRzVLamZ5bTZabUVZVHNycVhGdzJIRmxuWVZRcGxRamd1dG5mekRES0lUbUU0eUhEeUM3U2duVFk4V293MVM4WG1kVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10587266.shtml
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316092310T0U
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316091506CIc
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNeUxQQzY4eUc3Z05ZZ3JEdU1WTHBJd3VOejFrRmJCMVpFT3JMVDV3eHBBd0J4NmJpZVdtZVdGM3VYbGFZeHFIVkRlRjlzem41YWlVakNCT0tHb1NsTTNVTnd2X3NkcGZ2OFNSTlRnYlN6ZzhKSmw2U2ZvRmx2QWk4UGFIUlZVbjg4dXlVWEVMX0xyaFVRVDVsUGpqbUduSjRDZWFGTWhBdV9CR1FYX2c2VWQ5QjVoTnFEMTQ1THJZV2pQbDJWUVNiWdIBzgFBVV95cUxPaXFxN1ZrQnVwbzE0bkdhbFB0cHlVTzVIYUF3Y0UyNjl2amUzcE9qclFPYjFub2ZON0F5d1Rsek92OU9jTzNWWjJ4eEZOczdKMDlRUVNsMzVtQ2RqOWY0bXd6dVoyS2hGTXFBczZjNmxrN3VEdVR5aWctTk53TlNrcWpna3RVR2NWM2V
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/15/whats-the-impact-of-the-iran-war-on-china?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-16/10587332.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587321.shtml
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0dlvl086eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPOXJxSGdudjU3bzh6ZHlQLVJNdHVxa0pTZElnV0JxOHVSckd6Q0JaeTRGMDRFMHROYXpoWldOeXhIQ205VEQ0RlZCUkw0UGtmLXdFSEJyTFZicXVsVkRuUUVrc19tLTNiQ1d4Qml1cXhhLXVpRFRPLUx5cGFOOFFvbS1jajhTZ1BNLTZ6MkE2VkI4blQzWk1BR0N6Y2dOUWc1N3ZPTEluVkJrUGgzS1lqS29zT2V6T1NjLUQ1aElLdUY0ZHhNLTdJ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587318.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA3Qm0xZXZrSm9BVmhMRVNTQlRoSWg0MWtoeFNZN2ctaG41NDlhdUpsSnQ5V0hCd1JfSnhzTGdXNHE2Z0MxakhuVTJ4MHNZTHRVVG8ybzBsTDM1M2doQTcydXhEWUFOaGc?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316061843kmn
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316052639PnR
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxPY0hIVzdNUFprdVRNTkx2Smdhb2lyUjBwcUZQZmFmWjkzLWFYUy1nUGVOV3REMDVEVkQ0aFBQUVY3YklKZkpneC1yQUtjQjFrZDNodjBhelRZZGpWazJ4djZ4WkdEY2JzbnVKUVM1aXNaQUZwaG1HYXB6aHlta1U1M1ZYUTBvQUhnaFh6MkZveHpXdkdxMS1Ldzg1S2JLVTdZMk52WElKd1hWR0ZTTUdHb3NoS3Y5ZktwWENLRXhCbk8zTnE5b1Vnd04tbGhqQQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQdGo1V3dYMFh5dWE3ZXo1Q0VSSWVGWXZJZDZKUXBXQnVzcVhNRC1LallDSlNUTDVoTERHUnEyZkRyVDZuNzRVelI2Z1VqMEFHTzNKV2pQNWgtUlpZYU5HLWpSaE5FNFlkQXE2WF9DNF9OdDlTVjhQMUxUbG1vWVV2VTdZTnVWWWtVZTYyRTBFZTgwVllMMTR1N0kwRTlXTzl4YTdsSlk0WXF1RzhQS0tMVDRzSGEyMlVyQzFOcXpuS2hZd3N1UDhWbkRR?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1EMU5EeFZjbGR1OE9YRXdQVmFmVUVUNmlzcFYtckNmOEN4empraTY0UVFITmlJaVcxVWs5RDlvbG5VMWRVa3lMeHN1b00zYUliSW5hamdUTTRoUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/what-is-force-majeure-and-why-are-some-gulf-countries-invoking-it?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/trump-stark-choices-iran-war.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQV0EtVnVRd2FHeGJYUjAwWjlid01aVHNNVkdJS1pwR3NjNi1rX3RGNlZ3RG1xTDVUTWFVQ1psZnNRZHRIWFcwakgwejl0dnBWSFdoN2RsWENJUzFNXzZ1aUFaVmgyOWdwRHJXVFlpWTJrMTUwUnotbGxVcW8xQ2hKd19BaGhYeGN2QWxndGFlQU5XMzhmOFpRS0pLTkdBdjM4a3dmZGhCRktoSVE3LXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMT2tENFBrbVRMamozSlZrOTlMMkdNTnNYM2J2UTM4amY2bGdkWEc4ZUl0UUs3SW5tcktVTlRCUHFhcXVRd2RMcnJtdGtNTXpTWFNXOFJtQllxMzhhQmRFR1NQaDVMZFg3THBuZERkNmlmR0dqbWkwdEtNc0Z3anduaU9RMndnODVSMkVRN0RvTnNId3hKUHQ5TGZBUUVtVlFmOWFKQkd
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE4xZWdUQXhkXzVhT1RrLTBfNUt2eHoyOTZjbEJHNE9KbWhzWHBVbE1HbUJCclRSeWpZN3BrRXZKS2Ntczl5RVc4Sk1Pb1VCYzJXNjloLVZ5WmZqUQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcUlPUzlqMXVIeldBRVdicUxOLVRrVWpIWFRGMVdUS0s2RE5WRzg5N2pOaG9HRWVucTBxRGNyN3BXY0JrX05oS1ZfTGJ4UWhZYzlMaGJMXzVwM2xadXpETVdjOTFXQW9RRnJXZDdOQndVUE90aUh5YmIxdTJmcTVFQ2NB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603160250479UF
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316022052JtR
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316013532JZg
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxNekRxMzNpNEdXdXZMQWQwcFA5Ukt5Qlp0Q2ZrTWRZVGtQdHBWaUZwdE5CSzl5Y1Rkb1BtWGVJT3FfeklwTm45MlV3Nk9CTHVoV1JqMndtd1ZuZUgtaUxsTlgwMk1Hc19uZkx2dXlsRUx6ZjZUNF9aNUFscnc3S2V1c3hoSm9PUmc1TUJpTkc5SHFIeldONEg2QWlsamJ1TklsTVpSZm1Bc3Z4Y0R6RE1kanJBcmtvR3ItLWJFNVZR0gG-AUFVX3lxTE53c0htMGNhcldNaGQ5Rm5rVUhFS1V1OFU0XzFqYTFIZmdpcTR3UmtSQm1yNnl2aGVxT2Q1bF9kaHNkNEY3cUt4dERnMTFIZ0ExZ1IycW9pY05FT0s0bUN3eFJqcEF2QUhkUU5vQmZHeXdqOXRNWEhPQ2lkWUlEQWZsdDN1NFpWNzBDZnA4NHpHU3ozSDd
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101896-war-update-49-combat-clashes-since-morning-three-sectors-see-fiercest-fighting.html
2026-03-15
2026-03-15
进展要点
- 美国可能推动多国海军联盟应对伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡。
- 中国'十五五'规划强调稳增长和创新，支撑经济预期。
- 伊朗坚持关闭海峡，外交解决前景黯淡。
- 欧洲可能就黑海袭击事件提出抗议，但行动有限。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 运输中断 / 避险资产需求上升
地缘政治紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券收益率波动
中国政策稳定 / 区域增长预期 / 亚洲资产相对韧性
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTFA5TGhOa20zcEI5ZVlpWFJuZmVtWVYwbWk3TlpiUVZvMFJiSmhQX1NLdHl2UHBBU3VFc29sUGRRU05ZZ0F2SE5udHNUT19TdW85d1BILU5helJoNElpMUVBZlQ4bzE0RFMxVXlOY2NBamh4a01ac0RBZ0FCRQ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOTDB3elIzT25OVk8wQnFtMktXWW01QjFSWkNoS2JWZmlrRTE4c1djdFotRUlJWC1wbFRDM0pqMURMSk1SZGdZMjZrX0ozTE82SUFzZ2tjWHZVdm9qUUVMWUhfUVJSd2x5VGMwQ3NkM1dzdjcyel82WWlUamNIajdsdHpsQXZoZDd0UGluX0dLTQ?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVjZuR25oazhiV0ZmTkVXZVVLTGpUQWxpSWEzLWV6c0wxSlRZZHZYSVFvdjNTZk5LT2I4LTdPZ0lpNndSYUpRYUg0Rm1UYUVXSjEwZHJOb0RuU0FGaGtPLUJyb3cxQ3ZCVldPdEQ1dlZfWnlTdkJROEoxMk9YMVNudmJkX084VjhISWJ0cm50V3RUb3Iwa0ZDTzAzYU9HZzI2NGFMbXdR?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQVlQxTy1qRU0zZy1ZMlVQaExCcGNiamVEaWhudXBHR0dxREZ5VDlPUkRqNFdtME5NYnNqNGtmZlhmdUlhd3ZRX2puU2dXZUtOemFLaHVxUmJRSE5JVjhHdVNZMFZUbXRqOU9HSENmd09NMVJMZHEzTVZLclBMd2ExSlo5VDFBN1BLWXNITERKeTlGRGhWVjJRcFptWThFQk5uQUh5c21lbFJzbHJiMURrbzd6LXBOUQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/15/iran-war-live-trump-urges-world-to-keep-hormuz-strait-open?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10586979.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNeDhPbEdMMktxYWRDQXFlR3BrVU9uMWR4SlNjNnNZY016TGJ0bmo1OVQ3SWpDTVdVaVplX0c0UGtINjF4Q3JlVUpjMTVwY0VZcTFqWE1STkZCUTJRUjBXdWpVd2xnMWdNcnhpeVk5ejNtNGR3bXQtZ2xqdHVyZGd3WlFaRE9vNFJUbWlxY21fazEtbTRNbEx4dktlbXlsbmlmUXRRNlItODJFSXpqYkpiMW1fRQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101708-war-update-117-clashes-on-front-lines-as-russia-launches-68-airstrikes.html
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/five-killed-in-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall-amid-middle-east-conflict-13519726
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/us-israeli-strike-kills-15-at-isfahan-factory-iranian-media-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9MSHk4Wi0tRXM0VHh6c1Myc0NJakpvUnl5VllrbmtYcGM4R3JaUDVWNW9TdnVDWjlFMGRvXzlHanpiYlctTExOWnZHejBWTGp6dUJoRGpVQWpDYWNfZnVIZW1fZ01jSHN1Tm5wc0IyQWFQZFVNSXlhaA?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE4yNGQ0WUtDZ1UyalZ5eHdlQUhULW15STloeWVmYzhoWXJ3ZzIzOHlEaHhXZlNkV0c4TGZLcmxhNHJEVnF0WnUtX1Z4Vzk2NmZpMzcwNTFkY2ZhMXF4?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMNIBuAFBVV95cUxQRVFZU2ZINmRNeHFnWGx0aTVhZGdmNi1iYjN2RHVJWllXMEJURl9KbU9kQ01SYzh4TzRGNmZrRkhyLU9tYU5lYm14eEZfWkZTb21uRUFTNEZqdUYzM0Z6TVUya3JUbk1wdXFhcWRpclNiVFFMRTI4YnpGNkVma1ZjSWh3MnF2cE8xVDJCZ0VHbjRLZ1Q3WU03OTl2QjlKcm1
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/turkey-on-alert-as-iran-conflict-escalates-warns-against-provocations?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/14/israel-targeting-irans-security-forces-may-aim-to-encourage?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/trump-says-many-countries-will-send-warships-to-hormuz-amid-iran-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/us/politics/rubio-trump-iran-war.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/energy-environment/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-middle-east.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxORy1RZkVhX0NxZmRSZURTRHhKb3ZNZTVTeGwxeF80TGRQME5CUjV1QUl2VGN3ZDRyZzVBYU9EN3REakRockVuOU9pdHFBazJkYlhkYlZreUlJTnF2UVozdExpdGEyOGN1RlNFaG5TMFdmY0R3eDM2UGhNQ2l0M1MtaTcxdjNvMGtwMDA4Z1NMTTg4S24tU056dmpibVUzVFRSTnhRUVY0S3Q0V1BpV1l5NG0zMA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxOT1BlRjRRZVpteFFkc3l6MzBORl9aNXp6NlZINWNGdmtucmx4STAwc01qRXBrcXpNY0d1Y05TZ3hzUkpXYk9YYnlkZWw5X3lad3VVQzVzam5XVFFuYUlTR2dYVDZJcDl3SEx1dnYyLU93VVlYV0pmZmFQOU5TQ0pGWlFyXzRabFltSjkxY3hKS2dxNTlYd1pBS2s2ZTlSc3NUYjFmOWUwV3hlY1duUTlySVBoY25zeDJTRWJiaE5xa3c5M0VaT1JCZVNscHBlOU4wS0NTQw?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxOSHlZVXQ2V3h4UVlRaVg2bDJaNmZiWHktTVFkQXNCU0Z3V3ZZQTlvSUxZaExEa1Bfdy04MDZCQjdoSEl3ZVd1Z1dOYmlNN3hUNWdRQlFUSkIwLTY3UWp5ejdrLURMa01qRndiMlFVLWdUREloUkoyd1JnQnZLRXVHaGU4bVRKVUhzVTdCVlo5RkhRcHdPQmp6a0NnSHJ1OWdNck44SS1NNU9zUzJIMVdKVWVkSjZnZW9OanM5MHAxU2xQdmlDdDlR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQempZYXZOZXBHVzRTMENFaF9ZTUJwaG44NHU4anE0TUh0UW5IaS1nMDNmTmNaZUdsX0VZT3ZHS05tNjBQYi1GR2JCeDlGbGU5QzQtSnY3MEFNcmVfRzR1djZteTBpNmd6SHo0d0lRN2ljRDhLSGZfZXRETHNLLUpSTDZZNGEwbUZ2NndkNUFzcmxCdDlMWmtKbFRBQTRtMGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTkNTemktVnR6SkF6LTFXTGEyWTlaWTN2clRXakVEWmlvay1KUHVOcGU2M0x3bFRqSVNsNHVxV1J4TXFCcGNuN2tKeWI3U253aEpYRVktV3EtOGF1cXhyUFdHVnNlTmpadFdaLXcyOGZkOUtRZU9VM0NHaW9WMGpmQ3dUSmZhUG5RMzBWbjJqSjZuNVVYX3R4MUdXemluS2tUX0JqUFY?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/israel-bombs-basij-checkpoints-in-tehran-as-us-iran-trade-fire-and-jabs?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-14/10586968.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE14aFhiZ1B2ZEZmNHdHRW5OZjI1V1g4MWdQb3Ftb0UwY0NoaWRXUjczaW4tYXF0OU9IWG9EZ0x3WTNIRVA4ekVwSVRWUnA3MUc0M215Z0J2QTlmRVZndjA5MHdXUVVQdzQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-reopened-to-us-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-14/10586955.shtml
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634983-greek-flagged-oil-tanker-attacked-black-sea-russian-coast/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOV09TTXY0cTVIanNiSDFDeHlVMEw0a1BXV0lxUTliR281WmxUV1lZOGpOY0Fuc0ZDek9KSDdrZ3U5a2lFbW1Dc3NBX1VDS2YwM2JlTThJbldjUUh6XzlVbmVBNDJaSVhrRU5tT2xVQjRKVUtlZzlkd0Nqd2tSeUtpX1lld2xQQ0NwQW5NVkpvSTVhYkRlRlFXcmxB?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-emergencies/4101625-iran-drone-attack-causes-fire-at-uae-oil-hub-fujairah-port-halts-loading-bloomberg.html
2026-03-14
2026-03-14
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步升级军事行动，包括打击伊朗更多石油基础设施。
- 各国央行或调整货币政策以应对油价上涨带来的通胀压力，如加拿大央行利率决策。
- 美国放宽对俄石油制裁可能持续，以平衡全球供应，但中东风险主导市场。
- 外交调解渠道受阻，特朗普政府倾向军事解决方案，增加政策不确定性。
- 区域国家如阿联酋可能加强防御措施，影响商业和投资环境。
- 全球能源政策可能转向多样化供应，以降低对中东石油依赖。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
中东地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
美国增兵和军事行动 / 区域不稳定扩大 / 全球风险规避 / 股市下跌和债券上涨
石油供应冲击 / 央行政策调整 / 利率和汇率波动 / 全球市场溢出效应
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/14/iran-war-live-pentagon-vows-to-ramp-up-us-military-campaign-against-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081707PPX
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260314083318PVl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081016HKz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603140004322cj
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/13/iranian-missile-strike-in-central-israel-sets-building-ablaze?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-enters-day-14-as-conflict-completes-two-weeks-what-we-know-so-far-tehran-explosions-israel-strikes-us-aircraft-crash/articleshow/129550155.cms
- [8] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-03-18
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101359-iran-launches-missile-strike-on-central-israel.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBuOXJsam9kY21GZDVSeFAydmwtZEtQaVRKUEdNZzR2TE1mQ0VPTEhKZUdNRC1BVEJVTF92NGp3QTJqajRmTkdJLVliVE53TDdPeXhCVF9Vc21VOUFaNVJBLXU3aGJlVWROaE5icEtBQ2FWZnpNWmcxdE5RSTE0Q0E?oc=5
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314090641MLm
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNeUJTQ1VSNHVHVmZNZndxaWtfLU5ySEN4S1FrRjF1MTF5SnVZU1M5bVliRy1UNUZ0SmZaemNucEk5a3dFUUg2UXd6VmRZZVlKNE0yZGFLQlpjNDJQRm0tb1pHT0Y3QnRNR1JLdTYxMnBFd25NbXNWR3NjeEVHcTN5cUpTQnU?oc=5
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/634898-us-iran-israel-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9KdXFiNE5BTzBZSlNYb1YyaEdqZTFLMFNiNFNCbHdGc3dMdzZSMldrMXA2ZjRWZnBuWm5JWDkyOXFzalZtWkFsTmRGcHlabVg0QlJvMDlodGFrYURCSWFxM3RyVEM1Qko1Z2ZSUklDUC1qOFAxRHFwdw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQOTd5a0lmYXlEQVNOS0ZsRW5MZHItQ3pMSE4xcVpEa3VnamFHbUU0Wi1uMmlWcFJvVHo1R1dqMTBwc2VwR1FXU3E1d21ydi1KVFM5dmFBOU5SREpTYlhDV1VBbTFQaU96WlctVVBpWExsTm1Qa2RWZWNpbzU0NHdES0xTOVlWYklGODZNYkFmWHRQT2ZTNHFNQjVpMnNmaFA0b1JOTVZjUlBEWms5akhjcktJS0ZMRjlDdXo5WlVqRGVFQmhWNm8wY3VJd01lYlhIUUE?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOUlR4U3FSeEZEZHV0T0lEODh6WmRxaHpNbEdVajRodjdkT2xtS3lKSUo2QTVidjhkb3FyN2JtTjl3ZmtLejJBTVc4S2RBN3h1VlNDNEZsWXJVdHlJUWk5SjhVSUhjcWNacFRFOTM1cEpQcVZjamszelR3enR4MEVNMmFCNFNKN3pQcmRFMUM0akx3XzNCN215dG14ZXhIQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwJBVV95cUxPbWcyZUo1VDViaVM5WF9pcWJkY1lZWHVnRVB5cmlFQUZaNkdBbG1tQWRSMDUxRzRVbXlNTXJuc0YzalpkemFWdm9mai1TSFIxalhyUjcwSXdxS0J0ek9Lb1h4NE1lT2RKWkdJRHQtQmZVRTRweFZxSVVVa2RmOGJWTThOdGNyeTVoQUNVeFZjY182aTM5Y1c2NVBEVVhNXzQ1bndjcm00ZTVoMklhZ1Z3azRMYTRWR291Ri1LeUZNdW5LZzFSV25kTW9EMndoZkdkX3QxX0RLa1hBUUZOa0dldzRiakE5U2NGMVoyUVJlM2ptcnBZWHVEYnFwSEd5TG5wQzNxWmdQWmpVUzR5VnVnbWswUWczUEE?oc=5
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/politique/20260312-troisi%C3%A8me-jour-de-guerre-en-iran-quels-buts-de-guerre-pour-trump
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/eskalation-in-nahost-iran-nimmt-den-oelhandel-in-den-wuergegriff-a-b1f06920-cb9d-44fe-90c2-1f4c53fba5a0
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260314000200315
- [22] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-us-would-escort-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-if-needed-fox-news-interview/article70739248.ece
- [23] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/28-indian-vessels-with-lng-lpg-and-crude-stranded-near-hormuz/article70738142.ece
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-offers-up-to-10m-for-info-on-mojtaba-khamenei-and-other-key-iran-leaders-offers-relocation/articleshow/129562970.cms
- [25] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-march-2026
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/us-eases-oil-sanctions-at-an-ideal-time-for-russia/a-76349758?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [27] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-ramping-up-strikes-in-coming-days/live-76340941?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634859-dubai-finished-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQU0JHaTJ3YTF3Qzc1Vmp2VU45bnRoRDAyMlhodmhuY2pORXlGNm5LZGxpM0w1Rk5UUW1faDFHU2NCd1UwOHI4QmhudHd1MFJhUEt0QW1mc3R0N1BJajN2Q0x4SDA0bTUwZWNIcllYSHdBeFlZaExfSl9mWEhqX2NBcmtEczRCd0VK?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPT3VuT1JwVDB3WU5LVzM5ckJsQnRJQ3BBN3JWc0hQQ2tXdnJtZXFHYjZ5SWdBS2lWNXNXM0o2VmV4d3FRZHVHQzNRZ3BDUnVuMWY0dDZlb2VZRDA2NldJQVY1cUlzWjd4Zll6UVQ3WUo3RGJRNEZWTmF5NEJfclVpS1VMUzJkTEZ6RVMxVTd0OA?oc=5
2026-03-13
2026-03-13
进展要点
- 美联储等主要央行将更难转向降息，高油价带来的二次通胀风险成为政策核心考量。
- 美国可能考虑并正式宣布释放战略石油储备（SPR）以平抑油价。
- 中国“十五五”规划将聚焦科技自立、产业链安全与内需提振，相关产业政策将陆续出台。
- 欧洲在能源安全压力下，可能加速推进替代供应来源和绿色能源部署。
- 各国财政政策或将更多转向应对能源价格上涨对低收入群体的冲击。
关联路径
伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 全球石油贸易流量骤降 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策收紧预期强化 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊军事对抗升级 / 区域全面战争风险溢价上升 / 资金逃离股市等风险资产 / 涌入美元、美债、黄金 / 美元走强，金价上涨
油价暴涨 / 企业成本（尤其是运输、制造业）上升 & 消费者购买力下降 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 经济增长预期放缓 / 股市盈利与估值双杀
地缘政治不确定性持续 / 全球资本开支与贸易活动趋于谨慎 / 全球经济增长前景蒙阴 / 周期性资产表现落后
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-13/10586035.shtml
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260312-guerre-au-moyen-orient-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-bloque-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260312-war-in-the-middle-east-explosions-heard-overnight-in-tehran
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAJBVV95cUxOQkFHVlYxNWxWZEFDYU5vU294Y2FHZ182ejhLcDlnWDFlZFFVNW5EcHotTmtLZzVrU2lBMDRvWUxkU1R3dnNqREg5WnNVUGdfZXctUW9Rd3p2ek1jY2xNMVlIMTBmdmZPdHB3TjJua2loZnExQm95cl9WS1JtWEVadGxGZ2ZXLXRMb011Y2o2V1Jxbi1ROXdpZW9qRU9Ja0p0UHpJQnpMWTlxRVcyNm1Rc1NwSDVzcnVScXEwbEJUbHJXUk1yazBWZmpFbVlzOU9DNUFfVURPY2lsRkFYUHlwY0FWODJjajd2ZklkV0ZwY1hxQWVsbWo0VzhSSjVGUkNGUFBiYWNKWmxVNTFjYm5Ma0h6RXI?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOeFgzZmV4V0FqeHVnMnZxS2VSbGN4MUxqdFpud0haREV2OVBnUFcyZW0zQWJrU2lEQS1KSTFLRGNESWNQLW9QSnlWWVZBWGNGQS1Na0RDM09vZ3VFeE5ncm9ZSXVaVFMybk1nNjlRdUNNV19fd1FUYm1iV1pKaS11NFBsZmxxel84dXpjdmYtckNkWWNRaUVUX1lyQUJuZVFwTHR5YUh5ekx5WnpiNVNONXB3MlBvZ0RpSDQxb9IBwgFBVV95cUxQaV91WmNNSHR2MWljUngtRThOR1Mtb0lnSVZXMkViYUhFUHU1ejFzU2prMi1IdHYxWVVua2hEc0tyLWpGS1l5VWNubFlsanhBaUlkbUs2aF93eGk5Wjc5ZzVZQmhqeDNNMVlPZWJueW44b1g5aFZfSjZBcGRqTzd3Z1lkQ3lqcldMTFNoMGdkM2tFaEphb0x
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4100837-israel-claims-to-have-attacked-nuclear-facility-in-iran.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/06fbe756e8fa4e52a455987d905ec2e2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1VNnZxUmVhdk1rRkx3ejd4U01FaHFsMnV2ek9aVms3U2haNU9HTUpwXzM4dk5QbFFZaW1SN0JoOWtmWHRXT1doalh1bWdhckVDLUpQSWNpRnZOdw?oc=5
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101001-war-update-122-clashes-along-frontline-russian-attacks-intensify-in-huliaipole-and-kostiantynivka-sectors.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNS05TU1p3Rk5HVzVHMVNrUzJVb2ZwRjVZQjlMU3lLNENuYUwwY05ZQWV0OHhZNVE2Q0FPQVgwV2tucDBGMXNsclFsOWVtRU9sOElwSUxtRkdtUElENGw5SW9QSUdZYzREZXViVEIzbWdfRUFwdG1FNGRKSnk5QUpWNHhtaG5xaTRuZUJLdlIzR3pHWldyeXI5aEpwQU5Jd0XSAaQBQVVfeXFMTTNLVExKRjhKY2sydWM4a1dPQThsVWhPZkhfXzVNRFFoYnRHeDh1VFlrUEFlUHc2dXhqX1FwN0JDdGFIQUVnWEJCVENFOTJaWXNEcmlsLTVlWGhSX2I2akRhVmZOV2lfdEgwZGtzc1BHck9FY3c5Qm9JOVpjQnlPYVBMcUZMOFFXckF6OWZpRWNWSlFEZzBPeHU3eHRvMUV5RFZjcm8?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNb1B4UWQ0RjBPTEVDZkZDbXZvMTNtRWFNYUFWT2pPYlQ0NTlZSFRXZElDNm1CdEFrN0g5RVJGQXZYY0Y3SXozU0Y0WlRTVlFSaDVfNldjNVhBQnl0M3RNT3p1aEpNd2xTZTBmdW9wQjdSWlh5X2hLVmZBSVNHTmFRQmw2dHNqbjUyWkdqNVpNZjc3VDd3XzdPV0M2bUpOMG9YUnREeHRxcGlKa0pxb3RTdDg3RHVZNUFTdWfSAb8BQVVfeXFMTTh5ZFlmMFhYNlFOQk5MM1pZbW8xU3kzYk9ZYWVBcEJ3dHE4cm1xeHV6VEtZSWRFSGhXdHJlX2NjZG5lQUFOYXllaXZXb0VJSUFuczhaREg1OFJLMHRhT0lWenc4enR1MWxEWWJ0OGhtLVlvUW4xQTJac3QzNl9QQURyVDQzaWNXdnFCMk1VNDJqbWE2QU9EdG1
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/f6a9912e7ba541df91412c5b34d9e1e4/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/12/fuel-shortages-bring-queues-protests-around-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/netanyahu-says-israel-stronger-than-ever-in-first-speech-since-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPSFBSakVBQjhjZHBxX3lUTnM2YjVCMHNaZVlrU3d5ckdWcnAtei1DWUlQWDY4NDEzNURCeXNDQnFzcW93OVRyRjM4ZS0tSjZfaWpCWDVyV21XVXJORDhHRlRtVHRNMzBiYXJoemhBUU5nRk8tSkZuVHJhTGhiZXJBcEpNcktjSDFBWEJZa1dDMmdsci02dW9XZktXblFCdjNMT0M4T0w5S3BMY1hxbWhYRDBYZW4?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQOVI1bEFyQXhWeUVCR2pqYk00RGt0OXV0UjJHSTNHa2lJTzFhZjE4RmRBaUlnWjNjQWp1WUYxcW92LUZOaHpJUVpMemxNM3NRT2lWN0JXSkYtN0dtTFZxVDFkWDVjekJyS3F4eXBEX1o3UFpIWGk0MkhEUlNBYmswbXZTR0k4Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/108a1631b7364fe08ac49dd751650ccc/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10586021.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-12/10586020.shtml
- [20] https://news.sky.com/story/us-navy-to-escort-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-treasury-secretary-tells-sky-news-13518742
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQR1BzbW95SnlZUl9qRUNfbVh3WngxcHNKQWVhMGNESTEtbXBBWDJQaVpvZ19tRVNia0ZXRjBoSHY5aHF0RjAwVDdYeXFKcG5vYzFWekFwNVdDcExjZmRYNkZSRTItb0dKd05kcEhNRjFRSDdTY3MxVl91cWRVckd0a0hJTQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/12/how-will-the-war-on-iran-impact-the-us-economy?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/12/does-president-trump-have-an-exit-strategy-for-the-war-with-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5pN2RpbnBXSTZWX1V5NlFLODl1dWpfS21aNFVMMEs2MVFyZ2N3d0ZTRmhLQ3BaQkEyX0NXNWQxN19ZSEFsZk5IR2NYTEV2RVlsdDdKZERwbnluZ2ZBZFlhb1ZRVXh5Y3dZQTlwUlZReGRZZUhsQk0tbnlXMNIBgAFBVV95cUxQc0F2d2tZVUJHVW9IWFNqTnE1TkN6OEdHMU9xY2hvOWMyeVJPWERNd2lkVW9UcWR0T1ZZWFpJcXN6MkNIRDBCNm5wUzBqS3hTaVZGbVdsMnR1dHQyVGQxSElOcTQ5VUc0YjNULUxDc1FaWDFqdHc1Z3hyRUR2ZXdIUg?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxQTVl2b3NaY3JkSVItLXZPYlh0S3QtVGZXNDBHenE2T2E3RExlcVM4VVBvbjVFeTdEYkxxR09xMkhLQ21PbXAxOTVHVFN6UWVJeVZRVEwxa0loNEZfcHNmb3k2TkZuV3o4REdISTlwZDhpYjNHVVZKaFFJLW1rRWl2RWNENndKSmlYWE1ndWpMNWI0RkU?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4100977-war-enters-new-stage-as-russia-accelerates-creation-of-drone-units-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-vows-to-make-trump-pay-for-grave-miscalculation-if-us-escalates-war?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/12/aje-onl-irn_tuesdayupdates_av_v2-100326?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.iris-france.org/a-limage-du-monde-un-moyen-orient-de-plus-en-plus-sombre
- [30] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook
2026-03-12
2026-03-12
进展要点
- 美国及IEA石油储备释放将持续，但若冲突升级，可能需更多干预措施。
- G7国家可能加强协调，推动外交解决方案，但军事行动短期难降温。
- 中国等新兴大国斡旋角色增强，可能影响地缘政治平衡。
- 欧洲国家面临能源价格压力，可能出台补贴或储备释放政策。
- 贸易政策转向保护主义，新调查可能引发报复性关税，冲击全球贸易。
- 中东国家可能加速减少对美安全依赖，寻求多元化伙伴关系。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断 / 全球石油供应减少 / 油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗威胁及袭击 / 石油供应风险 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市波动加剧
全球石油储备释放 / 供应增加 / 油价下行压力 / 通胀预期缓和 / 风险情绪部分修复 / equities 反弹可能
贸易调查升级 / 关税风险上升 / 全球贸易放缓 / 经济增长担忧 / 避险资产需求 / FX 市场波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/634559-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/634546-war-on-iran-could-remake-world/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFByQ3hWa01uVlpZWmtUSU82S1J2UTViaXhJcVdhRVdDb1FfYWkxWFBtbkh5d3hnTVprc0JmRkM1TzI2NUJhbllqSDRmVnRQMUE1UzZ1Z2EwMmM0cTl0blFpc19sWTNtQXM?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPUy1FZ0pyVHZBZEdvcjJLR2JWN20ycFg2LWF0RzNjbWtvLUplYjN0Ry1ZMFRmUi1FeEwwT0hmSXJ3SGVsMDVVUzl5MzRpOWh2bTJTbzZ0aDdaVU9SN0hUR0tRRUhPV1Rmdk5Pbjg0NGV3ekVodi1ZV05QaFM5VjdHcUEyZ3NvUUM0cGtINlprbWJQWWp6R1BVMTQ5NDR2eEhpYTQ1SURPQ2h2ZHNsR0Nnbld3?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNWkJYckV1U051V0J0RXlsdVNIdDJBVkZROGp6aUstdWk3UFA4MEZGOTRqeVF5ZkZYZTJvaF95RWlzQTQzT3BYOTZ2LVBCN2VhemM1elpKOFhrVEJLVnFXN0VsaTZMV0k3WTFkRWlHNjVqWEgyVkI0Z0J2bm9wYmg3cXBRaUp3OWZzeTdCVG9SYjdPWS1PNUNLQW8tNjNJV1nSAaQBQVVfeXFMT2VTOHplSUtXMzZtRUxIVE1tczJVVUw4VUI5aUNXZngzdnR0Q1dERkpvNGM0d3FyQm00N3V3WGh4SEI3UC1qWHExeDhrX2JZNk54UC1jZ0w4TFdoQ2NJcDg1bHdGQXJRTjVWcWNYamxodHNKZTdpODlQdlA4Z3h1QW5OaFplMDN4d1lDa2tWbnFxalNXQkJneFBhN0FTV2dLR2xoZXo?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/irans-irgc-says-not-one-litre-of-oil-will-get-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/442a0fe4bc42480281d4d0bc28f4c6c2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNMmZrdGVSVzRwWlUyNWh1eXd4dGRaclJ3OGdxbGNPTkVUSFpUNTE2UFlpV24wWnI2NkpfNjJHc2t1TUdyMmNZbHAwT1BmSzdaMDRYRTlvYzlPeFVsNUdHNklRV0tnNWxQdElwblc2T1c4MTJUdzNVa2dlYnlVeUdKeU91bC1qQzU2QnJOV2pzM1NJQWFrTEZhcnh1cjFka1lK?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10585394.shtml
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/massive-fires-on-two-oil-tankers-after-attack-in-iraqi-waters?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNWXlWY3F2U0ZWSHFVbnZneDlSeGJvS2J4bU54OEFLeElaUjZGYm5YQ2h2N0RnQnQ2amhpRVU0STRYUS1sVGhlMXBMa2JLeDBRUWlhRFZlYU5yNHlEazU3T3dIV2RXMFJWMXgza3JXcTRlcjdKWTMxdHJOTzNLbVUwdDhES3pPU3hKN3NHY2dIN2pia05CMEE?oc=5
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/2be5a84701ad4b978bff009439d40bce/c.html
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/5efec14abc7b4d53998e9199af28ff2b/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/72fd109f77e741cebd3ae5372865e46a/c.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/634541-us-strike-iran-school/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQSUEzMWRHZDMxYWRvemZSdzFWekVpSm9xaW9pcS1vc0l1bVVjQ2pRR0E2eml0dlMxblI5a1FaV1JrQ3VOaUg5Nm95NWo5ODZIYnhvb3BfM0RUamZ4eUVXcnRwRnI5Q3JKaVZ3djNlMkZhSS1wSHgyUEJ2ZUItanVYYXlQRkpvRmd5eDNOQVZObzFnaEVVZlRBaTBiMlQ0X0RTVHpfbUFGZFNpVFNONjgyWnQ5amRVYkXSAbwBQVVfeXFMUHJDNk96bmoxMDE5NnZsaGVjTDZaUXF1cXpYSmVURUYwcmIxOGZLRzNtVDgzUk0xd0xNU2pIcUFiZ0ZvS3QzZXBTNUxlRHZKTFllNlFDckpBQ3dyb21BSU5rSjk1bUM3T1FNVG82UHBzdWhYTjFhSlZHLVhWUkVXQU4zTFpRek1rcjdPVDhERnJkbWUzN3M2WHQ2a1E
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQR2VYVTZXdTZ1bG9sOUJGMDlobXBSb1pBU05pdW1wZTdJZllYMm5yNUNKY0Q1b1I5a014WFNDdHF2RGJzNTVQTEg0XzM0TGJaYnlRdmZTT2dzd0dNNXVTdmFjelJOMm9KQldUaEJINTFRTUx0NnIwdVp6aHlFbVFsQm1Hc3d0Yk1LTlhxWW1mWQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQaVpsanBCMzd1VkU1WWFkTkk5Rk9zQWdLMEJkQmZsNGRnU3Q5VTJ3SXZHSjlBNXhTNWZCV2o5Zm1SMDVtb3NFNDAxZ2dGM3ZQbkRkV3IyR19GcDlJdkg4aWdYS0U4VkJ1OTFJeEl4cFBhNUNuLTNDMFFDSW5pT2xaS2RGeFdoUjd2eEdyekR3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/11/why-does-the-iran-war-pose-more-dilemmas-for-europe?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQQWEzSjZuZFlqQzZOX2M1bFB2ZTl5cjA3SU55QVJaSXRxU1dVUnhXaXJ5N1podkg5LXRBSU5hdnJadEx1RFMycEpCOG9JcXYwSkdWVE1La05iM21ONnVtWDd5Tk9MTGVlSzlzUnJ2alZsMWNOUzB3S2QzX0E1ZUgwZWI5MFB2M1RtNnEwN1NZVFRKa0xHYks4blNn?oc=5
- [22] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2026/03/11/prime-minister-carney-participates-virtual-g7-leaders-meeting-situation
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tc0pNV3hRZ185TFJLNlQ2SkF1NGExb1NkdTlxYzRldDJXMkdHeGVjT2t6UHFuWE5fejBOS2wtVEtoQXNLM3RFV0E0SUZGQ0NhbDF2dVQ2bnFNSUZURnZmNnN4OVVGdmQ0S1ZlbjNQOTVFdHNuam93SElscThMbVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260312/8a27c89d85d94d73afa65276ee67cfd5/c.html
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxORzRjNjhXOFFPSTRtcktYdk1vVmhWdjV2UFd3X0dPeVhLMzVZTnNRRWduQjRYOENnbmhUbGVsa2JyUzVXOGVQMms1dU9sQ1F3MlEyMzZ5b0pzYXdUWmhOLVJkUV9KaF83NmpzSUlYV245ejFlVDBvOG55VXNIcGljdXJ1cHVaTXNZVHZod0Q4bk9VWng2ZUxIX3RobGxRZ0VfSjROUURwcmZycEhjengwODN3?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOY1VEblp3ZlhTcjBpR1NKU1NvR0hzeklVbEt4WmtSOHpobW56QWR4SFJ4a3ZUeE41bzRJVnBicWJnUm1DNmFNMzc3QWNTRTVjcDNIc1V6MkxEdjAxa05TMXJqbUVDMHZLTVR6MkZlcGY3UHJ4dG9VRzJoVDVGLUN4Y0pQNjlqbTBsTXZhWUtncHJxZi01SGVZelowUEZaaDJqV2xB?oc=5
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4100584-record-400-million-barrels-iea-releases-emergency-oil-reserves.html
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/whats-left-in-iran-could-be-taken-out-in-an-hour-says-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.dw.com/de/hohe-spritpreise-wegen-iran-krieg-öl-reserve-wird-angezapft/a-76306889?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNGFGS0YxQnVyaVhYNGZ0ejQwZmo4YUNnc1NycHdjdGt3WlE1dkNzNXZNY1hXNnZzQjZ4VGkyQU1SbXdHZGQ5Rk1laExkbGVjeXdTLV9Dc0NjMWtsM09oT09oeElQUm9DS0ZXSUtqS1lMRDQySjNiQ2JuNFEtX1BTaERGTGg5TXMxRkpiNlh3Q3lGY2ZQci1fZ2JpOEtjM3NlSmpibzBYc1ZmbXZuNEhacWlHdkpZUDJZcmZpVlVaNHhLYU5BVm1BTlBR?oc=5
2026-03-11
2026-03-11
进展要点
- 美联储可能因地缘不确定性和通胀风险调整利率路径，偏向鹰派。
- 加拿大央行3月18日利率决策关注食品通胀，加息预期上升。
- 欧盟外交政策协调困难，在伊朗冲突中难以形成统一立场。
- 美国军事战略无明确退出计划，长期冲突可能导致财政压力增大。
- 全球央行需平衡通胀控制与经济增长，政策反应可能滞后于市场变化。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金 / 美元上涨
石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 通胀压力
地缘不确定性 / 增长担忧 / 股市下跌
通胀上升 / 央行加息 / 货币走强
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNWE1pdjF6NTVIOEF4aHpWS2QwZ3hfR0hqbWNiXy05Q0oyMG9oYkZRSEhRR09ueDVWblB3djJZNVk4VV9qT1hQSWFiRWZva2tJVzVabzYtTkZYQ2dVQkJKcDNfd3VPbmU2cnF0dXcwRVVEaFI2bDJFMUpiVmRnS2dIRF9Ea2p3dnJNMUZKYXZYMmY2Slk1dFdJemcwbUE1WXQwSVFvWVQ3M0VTY1FwZ2d3UkVPS3czd9IBuwFBVV95cUxOTUJHdnZHdTJZTUFvOEFPNGNSRnJtODhuUWNXXzBtNmR3TmQyX1dHbVN1bGl5NnZGSWpjLWlUWmtreWNJZDhRMzlJYmhWLWRJT3RMRWVhRE1uUXhXWEllYlBjZ3hPS2RNYVdaS3VwRlI0cXFmeTMtS3JySEZUeExQV1pISGtEbC1tcFotek8tdFFNaEN5WGlPZ2xFOVA
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNUkdiTFNjZENxQ1Z4bHZQb1FfeG1kYjZFblhPdVExeDQ0MjJwN3RYX3ZTRnE1aERiUm9rdzdqZmRWY21nRk03UWNOUVFKYk1tN08weG53UEYzSlZvdkZWRWk4VDdfT3BMbThYb3BWRld3WVRUM21wYWlZc1IxRjVITVQ0QlJnSUlKTmhr?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxOazVDTEpWOThHZHY2dHFZazh0YWhNQW9JMGk4bXVNYWNIVzlTeTA4WlNLLXhYMGRsRHBWMWNBVmtIUkJEVzhjUmFiSU1IVktZSTdLZm5ROV8yNUE1VnVhLUZIWjVid0luT1hmS2MxNnNlY3czT0pMa1VEV05OQ3pqcHhvUkJ5R0ZuZ0dETUZNQkNkZFQ3R29ueDNOVF8wX2ZCYU40UEQ1c1JoUjFIRTd6WUVBWF9iZkNqeXo1ek5QTzZGeVljOUluWW5jOWJnal93S0I00gHYAUFVX3lxTFB5V3dtclAyYms0MlBGbTZnaThKcDNuNmFONmRONjNJeVg1Z1JNVlhwVV9reWJTeS1DcnVKSUpZeDk0eW1FWDYyMGFEQmg4NGtkaFVNV3RlQzNCeUhNVUoxUG1PT0M2S1Q4S0tFRk9ER3hzMlZkVGkxYlQtNmYtSjl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310232439BDY
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310235751Mhd
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634366-tehran-fuel-sites-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-181914444.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE84cUltYlRQSkRGYmo3SnBVNGpaa01XbUJRSUxnOERzSE1pdXBFWFZIV0p0MFpGR1N0T1M1T0RqMU40T0VIR3V5YnEzSXNKakhyVXBueGFWTHJaQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/10/around-140-us-service-members-wounded-in-iran-war-pentagon-says?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0rjyr22ypeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/634413-trumps-call-to-putin/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260311/687b46ac645f4341a6d428a202df8b08/c.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNVVYzT1l4TmlxM2FjazNVc3VLdi1LcURsamVBcmhXWVNYSjltb0NkWFV2UmNxUHlIa3NSMEJ0SGtHem9zSlhkWWNtVTNDMzZVMnV3RjBfZU83Sl9uUldtS29fRGx0Sjk3NGtmWXE5NU85MktNSlMzbmx0ZDlKUzNHWTFDOHBwNFJFVlM0bUpHV1c?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPa2gyZDM2MWVreEVscXdpNTlGLVBONlVvUjU2Z2dJZmxXei1hZDJ3UGItYUVJMjJPbGtXTFBXNGtkRzZOc1gtYy11ZHQwMV9NMDJOOTlZRzJLYXo2b0ZLQ1pQM1J4cFdxUWYySUFabHRacDBkMXloQTJLVWRtZlBHQnhMUzhncG5ULW9vajk0SFJYb0VoamJ4X3VSaVphdUgyV0ZqS09paVU3TzZmS0M4ak1nX2ZCbnfSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWRhZm11VVFPbFBRelZJcWtXekRJb1p6YVdXYy1OS1duY1hIbVBLcHdLMllqY25USG1HdXNialpzMjE2RUFlelA1Z0l6TDhIOXFqVXV4cnJNY0pDM1ZsV0gxcDBRNWcxNjhyRjZhQmp5a2ozczhxODhtMDNuWFFvVFFKRnQzQXhlZk82V056UzFtMEFsdG1BNGpJeFV
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxOVnM1SG5iRE9GdkVoUHdZNGhSOU1FdnhaVlNFd1VPOWFPLXdFQXVIVHR4RjAxWjNmaTcyRkF5alpUT29DQUFQR1gzVVlORFRla0FsSXB0Y2taQTFMak5GdUxTZ0pHenpVVXlpeEpDNkdsY3psdTFqV3NNNVZLcU1EYXdFUmxsVVpfay1nWUhSVGVPSGw4VlQ5ZnJJN3I0Mkljc0ZqdFoyN0lVZl9YbGlEU1VnLVdiSmh6aDllOGViNGNGNU9QQ0VVMkV3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/10/german-chancellor-concerned-us-israel-have-no-exit-plan-for-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.sky.com/story/dark-ships-and-shadow-fleets-8211-what-is-crossing-closed-strait-of-hormuz-13517746
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBreGc4VlV5ZnF6bzJfQlhEMlNwcWVhWVBIenBWNUo4XzZIbTVLT2Y5SHRmbl9uX2wxVmlWN1JpUl95ZWRlWUZqV2VLWFV0NnB1UmYwZGVlOE5wQUIwRXgtYTVaVExZOFNtVHc?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNNE5ELWRWNFp2SnFnWGczUWdHMHo5dVM5U21KczN3LUFibjlqY1c0MUJiNS1yaXVrSkkxSGEyMlRfQjFqY0s0Sk1jQlR5TXh1bk1PZXVId2RTaVlxTXU1a1IwRXk1ZUYwZnBvNThHdGlxeWkyTHZzOERVOTRmZ2UtWnE4djFRN3ROVXVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/634398-eu-bosses-split-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxOMmdaVWhxMjJ4cXBHOTBrVldZQ0NkNS1GNXhRemZRVEZkcU95NDU3V0JjWFZWQ3ZEU09SX3JGd0FjUFFCTklPYXBXaWt6bzFXeTZSbWk0RFJubUhwNC05RERMV1lDOXBlcVBUZ2R0YXhpWFk1a3ljck5ObFRqenQ4aTBiOXV3OHo0Q0lQMjBFZTRFRmZOY0pHV3RZazR0MElYdkhnYVBBWWlfcmJYSnRIdmc2MWV2Q2JKd0tqLUlUcVpnU2hFZE9FaTFoTl9zZzlBTC1UcVp1WmU?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/10/global-airlines-hike-ticket-prices-as-iran-war-sends-costs-soaring?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://cdhowe.org/publication/whats-putting-upward-pressure-on-inflation
- [24] https://www.iris-france.org/iran-10-jours-de-guerre-ou-en-est-on
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-iran-une-guerre-d-usure-s-installe-au-moyen-orient
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-frappes-entendues-au-dessus-de-doha
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-replay-guerre-en-iran-la-strat%C3%A9gie-am%C3%A9ricaine-expliqu%C3%A9e-par-pete-hegseth
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/focus/20260310-europe-s-borders-under-threat-from-russia-baltic-states-gear-up-for-war
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260310-trump-says-war-in-iran-will-end-soon-%E2%80%93-but-threatens-to-escalate
2026-03-10
2026-03-10
进展要点
- G7财长会议可能推出联合释放战略石油储备或协调增产措施以稳定油价。
- 特朗普政府或进一步豁免石油制裁，增加从俄罗斯等国的进口缓解供应。
- 美联储等央行可能因通胀飙升而加速加息，但中东风险或暂缓紧缩步伐。
- 美国能源部承诺降低汽油价格，具体措施如补贴或监管干预待观察。
- 国际社会或推动外交斡旋，尝试结束伊朗战争，但进展缓慢。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀加剧
油价暴涨 / 亚太股市暴跌 / 避险情绪蔓延 / 黄金和美元上涨
特朗普缓和言论 / 冲突结束预期 / 油价下跌 / 风险资产反弹
G7政策协调 / 石油供应增加 / 油价稳定 / 市场情绪改善
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxPTFN3NW5QZFdieXBpUmh0N3dBYndKcjkzaVp3N2lISU1VbkZNelVMZGlHb1V5b3lYSVJTMjY1bzJNdGdjNmljdjFfY3RoV1RwbFpXVENCTE9ndzB4amI3cmdoT25iVDhWRWxXNWtRWU5HR2Y3NkN0QzIxa0djVlBlWjY3eGtaWHhhSlRv?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFBVV95cUxQNjN6NlVFX0IxVW5penE4TEV4WHZMZTY2YjhER3kwWkxYcHZudldsM1RVN3hBdHlEcFNwS3J6RnNqZllqN2I0cHZXSlBMSjllS05SM0dQWG5tNTJFLWVLXzEtZkxsS2ZxYzJxSEV4ZkFUZ0hUd1V1d2xja0xBcVpJZFBBRDI4TGo1RXc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-israel-launch-strikes-across-175355831.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE5lYzVaNzRiRU1vNjF5MWFMb3d4N0VoUlB3UEs0TFpDcjZEZG5JbFRqN2t5Q1lDbFZYSU5hSTZoR1RDYTRHcUgzQ1ZyUXlObmNEdlIzeEdndUxFOEd5SGlPSENZSWJqTVBaV0dLRTVNTTVnLVBpbTV6Qw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634212-oil-100-barrel-small-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-second-ballistic-missile-at-turkey-nato-intercepts-will-the-attack-trigger-article-5/articleshow/129332235.cms
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/f124c669dd43416f8e4ba9fd908aacf3/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/abea00315f4b47289cfbeefdaac77f79/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/20260309/db66c48278554551bc2be3748f7a46ee/c.html
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/5b9e2b8621c04b448f63a5d1d86a1829/c.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/87c01a718e3449b3bdc495475c795182/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-10-of-us-israel-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260309/a509f2ed53c94024ab2516747db85aba/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584278.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584273.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584277.shtml
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260310/fada381db92e44e0af00b9b1e381f1e7/c.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-will-be-over-very-soon?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-AFBVV95cUxPMFo5M3IwNzJnbG5TNFBPY1BySkk5M2VkNEJsdW5IekgwUFJLVmR2SEhFTFBuSVRsOWN6R3hWa0xtWlRYcktzSlJlaHJfXzc3V25QZS0zd1dpUlZPc2k5dGptRUYzeFhiWUtYSndEaEQwOWVRdHFmcmMzeDVvb21hNGtlS3dIWHRuUG5oRkZPanZ1b3JMbDlTUUVJUllqclRubGRIVzBCQ20ta0xKc0txWk9MN1hIVkVfSzBUakVrMm9tMDl2YzdwOHF5VFpaWmN1SkN2WGtTY0RKb2JfOHJmdXVWYzBWMDlXZDNaUWtjRm5fMjF0Sm1VYg?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7wFBVV95cUxObXJkNnV2QTNQczJIdmhOX3YwTE1IdUJ2QzZ2MmRxRWJ4YWFKU2h4Y1VaQkFKNG8weVNxX0tIM1J1S2pKMUNiV3gzblB1NndnbHBhRkduX05OOGFlNjdEa3N2WGVMMDhfS2xxb2ZCMVZQVjRBZkJ1SENSTHlaYVdVdDJGdl9id1g0dXZ3OTlJZVp2VFZxdzNQV0lNeXZIc0x5RUFWTWFhRGJYWkNpdTRwQVphcVZFWkptVDNEbktjTUlwbnJFelB6Mkx3WnVUU3B3WF82V3VmMlhwRXNVX0dJUjM5VHZfa1BmN25iMmxOdw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE4wTExGeE5CMjNoYWJKOWN4bDloaTJMVE9NaGJ5amtkQllLUmpJSVN2RkM5ZDk2VmYyRFRuMU5GQUFDc21JNzVBWThrejhCeDZ3ZGptWVhjQktBRmNqa3QwWXM1bzBkZVMyTHdWb29PUkphMUlPeHItNjk5X1E?oc=5
- [23] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-trump-says-war-to-end-soon-but-not-immediately/live-76271521?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584264.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxPT2lEbHhnbHQ3ckhiaWplNmV0OXVuZVdPUmVvemFXaG44dGxMNVFIS29nMW5uRkRfZ0V5Q3BnZ0RTSXh1VWcxQzc4WGxLNTBFVnJqdUJXVDZZVHhUTUx4b2h2ZU5VSUwzMm5fcnpJVXBUNEtXZ1IyRXdfRFc5UDU5aXFiSXRRX2M0WWMxdnU5cC1ELU9vU0x2c1pHQVdWcVppWXlhMVdad2x3T3RtQkFnZWtWUzhYQk16eFNTQWlydm50MWJqRDVGX3NDMUJvYTFSQVlIV2xUdVNrakdQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4099791-war-update-122-combat-clashes-on-front-lines.html
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071332ggP
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071551lHG
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310070742PLx
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310070606xM6
2026-03-07
2026-03-07
进展要点
- 美联储可能因就业疲软而倾向鸽派，但油价上涨加剧通胀担忧，政策路径不确定。
- 美国政策转向，允许印度购买俄罗斯石油，试图缓解能源压力，但地缘风险仍在。
- 国际社会对美以行动批评增多，外交谈判空间受挤压，多边协商受阻。
- 特朗普团队内部分裂，暴露政策矛盾，可能影响美国外交连贯性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策收紧预期
弱就业数据 / 降息预期升温 / 美元下跌 / 股市波动
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和石油价格上涨
海湾生产中断 / 油价飙升 / 经济增长担忧 / 市场风险情绪恶化
来源
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260306/ec1ff965f49e473ba5e109ca53a30371/c.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAJBVV95cUxQOFkzal9NUmh6OVNYVlZBUVpJVTNMY2lRTWxqemR6STRpckhJc3lkSTczSWVpT0F3NnZZeUtZUnRLeVpBUmlwR21DSEhIMVp6WjVFWHlva2U1N3lTbWktZF9hcWNUMU0xdE5wTld6SE9OTU05Z3Vuejhsak1uN2VvaXRYckJkV09ySG9oUkl3N1NGTXVyZlpKblByZGNDamJRMnJhNjUwVmtHZFNPVG1qRF85Y25mSkkzV3pmSHVpend6TS04LV9fN3RtbGdWSWZVcHpVRXBQcjk2WVdCdW1aMU1EYlNxUzlzMDB5UnpYODhUeG9UMFBLOXBVUmJFTzluaW8xTmNEVVdhRk0yTFd2bk55U1V1SUJWa1l5Wi1EWXJUTG13?oc=5
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy031ylgepro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/strikes-on-iran-to-last-four-to-six-weeks-white-house-says?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTFA4aGFEWWF2N1MxbVZUckpRSFBXaWduejNwS3lGSktJbV8wcmFVRW9vRUU1c0hNZERqdWo5S3ViUVZpclZodllUTEJTNU55cURfSnpjbEhn?oc=5
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Business/dow-drops-650-points-iran-war-sends-oil/story?id=130824337
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNeG5wRnd4dlUyRnM1TWlyUFJMSlIxRHR0NlFyNTlLcUJoUmE4QzhGMWJ1Rm1CeU1jX3BGazgzWTRlUEZhS0tIbEpibjFnY3Z5S2x3X3VwTC11akh1cENhVzN4cnpPRzdFaDVGZjdQQVVwZ045b3hubjhDLTY0Z2hwSGNoTUxQVnA3ODhCYXJWYWFlS1ZzeGdwMTItSzJzeGFHR0h2VXp1bjY?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd98091g28o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-provided-iran-information-help-191321667.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxOTS1SbFJTdkh0alhXZ3J6VTRKSUFNZjcyeFo4SU1UME5laUZuRk5WTmJDQkk0VFNuRmJfN0g4b3c5VlZxWm96Y1FfVXY2T1NOMFZwbTNlbGI0NVlRVndWbktkSzIwazdIY2VWYkFldFlLeFZpemZVQm5HV0FDV1N0dmp2WXlMdzVNVE1RYVhPeGtfYS05UHJ3X0NpTDnSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0VncGZqT0FINHlFY0piRmlHWWJTOXZDaGhzRkJnc25KbklNa3lJaXREWGlFVUR2b21NWGJtZ0Rkd29pcHRFZ09OXzR2MEdSY3FubmNQLXBucFBOczZCY1ZRM0NjUlcwT093ZGE1UkY0cDV4cE9fU1NCSWVsaXVJQ2x1S2lBOUhhQ0JMYWtwTnNLT1hleFpHTmlEM2tMNmdPLUtB?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/why-did-the-us-torpedo-irans-prize-warship?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNVGZmRGhwVEZsMXNxODNwY05xNUtGdUxveXdfakFMakhZbERtcWgxTW9MRXR4LVJFdHhXOWctczRLb05CSVFPZ0E3VkFDVTY4UWxQcDVPOE5kTEJLeWg4Q2dBYUlfXzBSTlF2cktLNEpiTklfc3dnT3dLYnBTdk1iSUh6OVZxOEMyWVZxdTlTZ3JMUlRxb2RrLVAzTUJLUWlRSVB6QkNMMVZfaWNYUGNCZk5GQk5XWDZyTHkxWdIBwgFBVV95cUxQVS1iVFphVlRheUcxNlgzYmhnbVFsTUZlbFljTWJGN0drbWZyd014NjRBT0FOSGprMXlkS3pEdFJiT2FuX09PR1BkU0I0eTVfM1lYSkJWSWJxc3ZrMDViNU9WUWJTY1hHQUZSZ0pUZ0JycXhpMTBXXzR6NjdVT3VVLWtXVWdEUHoyNDFocEVuQTZNX1hROXQ
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260307/b9c82f2aab50482fb69b63c615e4d37a/c.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15VEw1WUVXMzJiS0ZBUUVRRjRndzlVQktlajVJQWIxc25Gd18xLWJ4X0Uxa3BTZ2dXVHU4alJTYXNMOFdsdXJSaXdocjVwZlhFd0YxSzJ3UW1sQQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/6/us-and-israel-attacking-iran-at-record-pace-war-monitor-says?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.sky.com/story/weve-taught-toddlers-to-take-cover-living-in-dubai-as-iran-attacks-13516244
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5jaS1FdjUzSFh3Vy03S1JmazRyV1V0ZFF3VzlUblUyV2ZSQmVIYVhwTl9JMnQ2YUVfQUpTdVo5dnB1RHdVUDJ3c01zTVJESzhsV21SZXZRMzVMdw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/634027-who-will-invade-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNakVxRTA4NGhrNkNzRW5ScS1OamsyaHo1enBwTmtGNUdMcU9vVTZBdlRFOUlhdWl2YXlva2ZySmxqMkZDTHJrQVZsUDZxTmxIV2VyTWhQLUM1bURTeUQ0dW9JUF9TMzFGY1pMSmpybi1EZlpadW5HTWIwZGJoWDAtMUNKU0xRNnByRFc5cldXNFlPYzNFZS1rSXBIVk9qV1RqcXlxY3BDOGR6bk9FOWpWOA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1PSWUwWGZyVlU1QVoyOE1PWk1md1MxR1dKRE1iN3U0SHRFZllvTlNxS0x2cDE1amVLUVFFYmVpQ0V4YTlfMmNBNHFTQXZLR0IyVUVRd0Uza2VBXzFaVlU3dUxmM2l3d2tDQ1VxLVdpSGY?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQM212N1dDQVJlUjJlODFrWlVpVUFYWG1oYkoweE1PQUo1Zy1BWGFQX2Z1emFBc1BVUVJHMUU3MTNUck5PYlNwQ2VkZUR3c0lRYlQ4VVl1SEc1OVJTV21HVWZTRGNTQ0FOaWk1TDFMcjlOVENPZUtycEs5ZnRfanNCbnl6cXhvRmQtYldjbTdQY1NzM09tOUpJT0w4cHdMNW00QVNDVHMtdkR4Zm1wQnVEUGpR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/634016-iran-war-trump-division/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUFh4c0djeTJobnBEVmtQeVUyTVJubkw5UGducS02T1pUMjE2QmhDQnM4aVRlSnRacFoxelVIazZnSExCdGZvMnZKcFU2dmt6dzg3WHcwN2FfQjZLaFNKNXpuemRSckxubXdYdGxXeWptek92dXhfaVNSVmlVWTNJaHJjVDY0Z9IBiwFBVV95cUxNNmVWRVloV2N6OHFickp4MVNwT1BLZGd1ckYxWlhYUll2NVNwNHNOVHpTSDJNQXpNM0lhaDJFN1lCYzYzTlBvb1hZVVRwb05RbjkxZS1TdTYyRkl5bGZ2T0o2WTk3aHJSSGVXTWl1MkFBZU5heG9fNDRyTE8zVjJ3QXB5dFMzci1tRDVB?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/6/has-donald-trump-failed-to-sell-the-iran-war-to-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPci1VOHg5YXlMYzh5RkNfcXJsZEZGQlFqVDhMYmpyWEZqR2Q4VzRiVlJ6S2hpUVZia21JRU84aElKV3ExU0lKT0Ffc1R4Z2lRTUNMeTFaWWU3UGQ1LTV4YWJ5eG9nQ3Y3VHl4eUx6Y28xLU04Um56S1dVVjJiWVVLS1NnLXFnQUtXT3NrY29VS29WS2ZnNGJhMmZJbEJuZ1ZHek84RUJJNHlxQ0tSVE1FWlFmMEI?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1ZVkc1SXRLM0I1RU13T2U2V0NrcnJXMFJONDZmYjVDOVFObEE3ODJmVHVjLXFkNGVjVkQwekZjaC1tQWxDdXhiYzlTRm1xMXhkNUFmY0VKLTA5ZnhMOG9HUnJfVGpKMlB1bmNOVlVmOHRUdlRMMk9Jb0hnbw?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNTXVNdVREcHA3Ti1kMmIwUkhQbkt4cmhWdkNQSlJvb3hlX1E1ZXFPRmlQS3JtMUJaMVo4X0g4bElFLUdZRFk5ZG8yUHNrYTYzQnpnVVdZcVdQOHdqZzBLZmNPdWJDcG4zNU5LWjJtelY2WG02OGdKeHZRM0gtRlhQOTBYRjRORk5XSUFYRDRkTFFJVHEwNFpqakhWYnZmMExYQVZoN291bw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/6/us-job-market-stalls-unemployment-rate-rises-before-fed-decision?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpw004xqxnjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [30] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g88q764njo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-03-06
2026-03-06
进展要点
- 美国中央司令部增派情报人员和防空系统，为对伊朗长期军事行动做准备，预计持续至少100天。
- 欧洲央行会议记录发布，但中东冲突可能推迟货币政策正常化，关注通胀应对。
- 英国和西班牙等北约盟友提供军事支持，但直接参与程度有限，政策立场谨慎。
- 特朗普政府依赖军事压力，缺乏备用计划，增加战争失控风险。
- 全球央行可能因油价上涨而面临通胀挑战，利率路径或调整。
- 贸易政策紧张，中国稀土限制措施凸显供应链风险，可能引发报复。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运瘫痪 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀和增长担忧
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金、美元上涨和股市下跌
能源供应冲击 / 商品成本上涨 / 央行政策滞后 / 经济放缓风险
冲突扩大 / 第三方国家介入 / 市场不确定性加剧 / 资产价格波动
来源
France 24 #2 / RT News / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / ECB Press Releases / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-iran-under-heavy-attack
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-global-reactions-and-military-deployments
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-bombing-rages-in-iran-as-war-widens-in-middle-east
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633892-iran-crisis-oil-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260305-iran-la-succession-d-ali-khamenei-s-organise
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-iran-pummeled-by-intensive-airstrikes-as-war-enters-day-six
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNNkItZ0E2aDd2UDRLYm1nWW5KR1EyY05RX3lTUnFOTHpwbnJfckZBR0RjclVNT1paVnRod01rUVgwVTl0dy1KUlB2Y1czZmRZMkNRR1lFaTRnV09FQktuMGRIMnlxVEh6Zk95Vjk0N1dsaVI4Uy1na3ZBcWVNU1NYYkRtMUtGcURZRnpHeFUxaDh4QkRJOGIzUGt2d2ozaGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTnRsclY0NEk5NHVmMHQwd3BzWjhZNWhSblVFaTRBM19KUWFXbjhzVFNIT1FLc2lyWHpXX0NSVmJyUjRUQTlwQWM0MVI2a0NCNDk1Wi01aHZSR3VMVEs0eUh3QThlLWgyT3laR25SaWR5WnFIdk94LXY4Zmd6eEVOQ3pQaDVRdjEzMzhCb1F4cTVzMjVJdjM2RDdMeXJhZ2Q5czJhcmc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603060611491Qk
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026030606043019B
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/rare-earth-yttrium-hits-new-high-up-140-fold-in-1-year-on-china-curbs
- [11] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg260305~4a9b7afe1c.en.html
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/diesel-at-16-month-high-as-iran-war-drives-oil-prices-up-further-13515828
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQZGRlNF9hdHF0dzN0dkZTQU4wWGxla2J6MHB4NkpwalBTVTRrNkxaMWM3TmNVOWZSUEM0TnZ0aXNiNW5XUDhWX1JvOEJLM05tdjFGRlJ2YTQyT040RVdOT2RnYVBrbHFrWU1KSVRtaHFxOTRTbkdHMTFFV1FYSVE2c0VIVWZVTDRDNy1MbGFyVGRYXzJtYjBPbkZHdDRaN3BCT1BSZFVWeWY3UlF6aFdHUG5CV21mZw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/us-house-of-representatives-to-vote-on-latest-effort-to-halt-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260305-how-vulnerable-is-the-gulf-iran-war-escalation-undermines-energy-security
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-us-war-on-iran-has-no-plan-b-warns-scott-lucas-trump-just-wants-to-kill-people-and-blow-stuff-up
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOcGN3STktTEJxdnpGSTc3TUdaWk81eWo0eFR0NmtRaXNBaXhwNF9UV25hZmxPODlsTFplajBmWkJCVEJkYnhicXZncmlVTGJublV3bTFCVC01cDNFY1ZaZ0d4UDJkNWl3S1RWNDd2cl9TRXNzcmVBMm40a3pJcEVNa0VYN0hzS041RVg4TFF0VlhyNHR1aXVjMi1GbEtvYTlKMW5oaGpJckpfQkt2MllEQXdsUnVjR19lYUFVQtIBwgFBVV95cUxPU3FjSXNLdlREWFhzcUdYMkF0U1F3VG1aOE9hREM0VV80RnJwWTljRWhGNGU5NGt3QXR3UVY1ZjUwSU5yOUN4Tm4yNExLYUpWZlB0TlkzUlg2ZFZSZXFfOFNya1VZV1pUQ0tSMmdtbk5RczBfOF9Cb0RZb0xSaC1jNE1XZjF6TEdEZEdxVjJYWTlWMFIwaVZ
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/explosions-rock-tehran-as-israel-intensifies-strikes-on-government-sites?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy884ekn0jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/buildings-devastated-by-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-death-toll-rises-to-77?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-israel-orders-people-to-leave-swathe-of-beirut
- [22] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east-5-march-2026
- [23] https://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-twice-declines-to-rule-out-britain-joining-strikes-on-iran-13515754
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQOUJNX3JOYkZqM1ViTmw1TlpoOUhWT0RkQ0pHeDR6UFhpeHZMWHJ5djlCSnU5WU5PV283ZU1hdHFvTVhDY2ZjQkthWHpZUUJpdjZ5Z2RIMEdFbjBBNlhNU1hfYlNRNFpGNnY3QzlSeHVZeVNHcU5lU21Ud1hVXzFwWk9pREJTOVFsc2NwUXYzVHh0TUJE?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQdVRyUlBoQ3UwOHlodnBjVnJKYnJSS2FmTDVHUkxTQ1dHWG9ucC1sdmFIdVN4dEsxMGE5eGo1Y3VCV2RFbkVvVVRNTDF3Mjg3UVpkUnpUaUt6VXJXUkFmMEl3QmFXT1JOdmRpQmVLMkhGOGxKUi14QzQzdk5TT3NaaExBaUdNN1FGclJCM1ZDdHBacEFiUF9TazNTdUpidUhYWTdYWHFBXzI3TUJtaXIzd0RGSkV6dG8?oc=5
- [26] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/5/aje-onl-tt_irn_usiranmonday_av_v1-020326?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633899-politico-us-preparing-months-long-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxOUWpRVWFsaG5naThuUzljRkpCcjJIenFzeGRnZU5lN1ZIX3VvWFcxMUZJOGVvbTZFaTRNSFcwX1puMGJ2TzhlbF8ybkdLbDJwU1NEUXliVkNxLVA3a3NJVHA3ZnVneXJ3VEpkbEdHeXJXSHJPcTd3MXBxVGU1UlBIZUtFR25ZR1JSb19vY3NHdzd0UExHTEhweEpnTnc0VDR6c0hqYXdBRERwWmFnSjRpT3lqNkF6TU9iN19n?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/5/videos-show-destruction-after-us-and-israeli-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-05
2026-03-05
进展要点
- 美国可能持续对伊朗施加军事压力，目标防止核扩散和削弱伊朗领导层
- 关税上调计划本周实施，特朗普政府强调保护美国利益，但可能面临国内批评
- 潜在外交接触以缓解中东紧张局势，但双方公开立场强硬
- 各国可能出台措施应对石油供应风险，如释放战略储备
- 关注美联储对地缘风险和通胀的货币政策反应
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 中东石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产（黄金、美元）需求
关税上调至15% / 全球贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓和股市波动
地缘风险缓解传闻（美伊接触） / 市场情绪改善 / 股市反弹和油价调整
积极经济数据（美国就业） / 支撑风险资产 / 部分抵消地缘负面影响
来源
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/briefing/the-us-accelerating-its-attacks-on-iran.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxNdjU0NmlDTWxZNnNDQlhDWGdqSHhJbGt6dzRaX21RRTdYVVdXWUF5MG1OMHlOMVFYWHRtZEpmYzJreTRyR3hSbnRKeVBJRHBpdjdoR096dWkzN0FlcEhhZXNNcnIzVU9lMjlmZEZINHI5Q0xnUXpVUmE4MDloaklUQW01YjdHNjM4aDFPbUcyeXZRNzdqbEtJaGtKR3BHOUV1LWowalhtSkxwSHA3OGpsN2s5R3FTY3hhellV0gHAAUFVX3lxTE5JQm81cFJhanQ2VlJoSlZCZGQxZi1YMFdsWV93a3IwN1kwNVQwQVFWWHBPc0g1QXV5S05zZjFlTGtNYWtZZ29RNXR6aHVweUVUcUZVdWxVZTAweEFmMnprd0lZQXFtdnFMVVhqLS00ZDN3ekZ5Nkk5RkZWb1d3OWc4bko5dVozQktkZnpfb3g1VzlrUjJuVnR
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/death-toll-in-iran-surpasses-1000-as-israel-us-strikes-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305073628QBz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050522586xF
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV0UySVFKQmRQOFNKTUpZX2xFbUFaT0Fpa3ZZdFJld0ZTU3o2V1VEWGlxbTJOYTRnTHNPSy1Ed3p5OXJjcWNjRVJsM2ZWeFctZE5mN3BmY3RVcF9mRDh6UEl4ZXNZTG1XLTZMRnVvNllrNldpT3g3M1R1VGxKOVFFa2M1cjNZVHJLbU1Ga2VUeVMwM3pkS21YUDR30gGfAUFVX3lxTFBiNVBqUnNhVGgyUGhqOVZFeEVlODdvcV90OEpjZnRpV1AxR0FzbXgtYkp2RVF0ZkFjajRVb3ZUaHhJS2dOS1FrRGtXS21GdFNaZjlheElfUkNGMlVTaFllWXJfRDRGelFPU0dBRm4wY1UwTWFoN19LSmI5YXI0d2xJc2V6LTAxanIzWVhSS21VOHdUWGFNTGJrMHMya0dZVQ?oc=5
- [7] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1042499/korban-tewas-serangan-as-di-iran-capai-1045-orang
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/international/watch-exact-moment-us-strike-hits-iranian-ship-killing-over-85/articleshow/129033347.cms
- [9] https://abcnews.com/Politics/video/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st-130753852
- [10] https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st/story?id=130752053
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/world/middleeast/iran-navy-ship-sri-lanka.html
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305001514U4x
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/us-submarine-torpedoes-iranian-warship-in-indian-ocean/a-76216943?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9xSDI4dFhkT2E1NklVZXNqMU1hdXJSNEUyMERzSW5xb3BKMm41ZlB1Mk56TFhJMFdzUlhWaGJDcTNmY3Y3YVpjNzZMc2hjR0xYeUdNZEYtQUdzWVdsNlhOdnM3TGdHRTlmX1pXenVraHM?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPNXM5TFNKSmxnUUIyVlVNY1M5Sl9rdkxmSEZ0amVJM1BJQzVLQmNMeENQcDRfLU1TLVh3Ukw4YjRqUnVqM0JOYjV6U0NMVTRrSU8tT2hKOVFqMF82MDNXbjZMRjZvR19lSUFXVTIzQ3pmZTgwTG1PZU1mTVo5cU52TW5aOVJTM1h0QnMxbnFGZm0xdDVIX04xTC1DeGFFa25Oa3VyUWpR?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/over-100-people-missing-after-us-sinks-iranian-military-ship-off-sri-lanka?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxPN3FTcWRwVG9yZlZtYURzOWhjeS1rX2xkQlBJaEJZZFh2TDg2ei1pOHp3eENOVlpHcmZ3UDduOUtRQTdvaUM4OW5lSWlhdEZ3WHFDb2Vzc1lsYmUydWlCN2V6cFBkTlRvdnZ2bjlHa1lvWTE4dlZhei1oNTFJOVZPeTU4Zk9Mb0htRTdON3BCcWVuUjdCbTN3RTZ3dmhQc1h5Mm1ha1k5VkxBZkNCeGE5OWY4Sm5yeXF5RWxaTmRqT2F5YUNoT1haTE4tWmkyR1lDQWFpenB2SExTa2xwbHNVT2d1azBiZE90cjkxaHByRVVOblBYQ3h4dEZuWGFSYnVT?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNZ3o2Z0QySUZYbzZhdzNBVmgyNkRoNW9YYkF1NmlsM3RDTFRLWFY1M0Y1Z0t5bXg3YngtNHpVeTZ5ZmkwOUhYX2tTN2h1bkRQSnNpZmZKS2V3dENRS3NOMGsta2xtd2lVWktmLURjbzNWY09xWVJwc2lzeTFheVRXYkJsTzJGQjhQLVRITjRIZ1VRc3Y2Zi10Z1dzWEhVN1ViQ0NfWUFaU05SZHdYYWNlMFl4SQ?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/us-will-rain-missiles-death-and-destruction-on-iran-trump-aides-say?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/4/traders-mint-money-on-betting-platforms-on-us-israel-strike-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1TUi1od2ZDcDNHZHdmaTNhbEREZjV3OTNCZjBPdjluQXYxYWplQ1ZlaTVid1MxRzJZMDMzSjJQSXdlbkkzeTJDWnZ3SUNFREVLX2c3eFI2TG5zUQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/4/how-is-the-war-playing-out-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/trump-us-forces-doing-very-well-on-the-war-front-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-may-be-hiked-to-15-this-week-scott-bessent/articleshow/129055667.cms
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305075648wwf
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050754285ab
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99jjr7d40yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305072036cok
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-rates-us-war-effort-15-out-of-10-vows-to-push-on-against-iran/articleshow/129051534.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305065435LlX
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
进展要点
- 美国可能继续军事打击伊朗，但面临国际压力和国内反对。
- 欧洲国家如法国呼吁遵守国际法，可能部署军事力量以维护地区稳定。
- 中东国家需调整能源政策以应对供应中断，可能寻求替代来源。
- 全球央行可能面临通胀压力，需权衡货币政策应对能源价格上涨。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力和股市下跌
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 风险资产抛售
特朗普贸易威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 市场波动和避险资产流入
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/4/iran-live-news-us-embassy-in-dubai-hit-israel-pounds-tehran-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/idf-destroys-secret-nuclear-over-211910871.html
- [3] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4097728-us-military-says-over-1700-targets-hit-in-iran.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633639-energy-markets-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/2f0d9742944b4a138d93fb39776d074f/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9HcW90OWVjOXIxeDRKc3N4MGNfRkFMRjUtT0VhT2oyeHlsUm91OUZUYWR3TmRudjBGYWJYVWdKRGh2TTNLQnhuaXlEYnpBRE1kVU13Q0htb0lBTXdYMDVYUzBYR1p1azJhUjZrOU5R0gFzQVVfeXFMUDBRTDhHXzNvVFp3dTBfU1ByZEVySElzenoxU0M3QUtzcmY2R2ZYRldEVm9JZnNMQTFJTmdNUXQ4akxfYzBHWTZ2SkJvYm1XY0JHZGp5ZW01aXhRbFJvX2NxeVFaWmZqRVNOLVZHeTRpU2hPdw?oc=5
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBHbDdHZ2IyRkpZbjc0WDF1WG9SMkxNWTJNdTlhUmlZNVdHQU5PaVFXT0Q2MngyemZNblpqckhKcG9Pa0hmQkJqMWhPOWZpMjBtMmhuWmNUZFFIdnh1Q2dDQUNyOFZ1M1VxRlVaV3VaZjVZWmlJT25Wdw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/53a69df4e0d74a8eb47ff5e82c504e40/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNb0J1ejdjZU56ZlQ4Z2ZkLVNJZWdyendSUFZFNGJxSTlVQnlQRno5RzV3RjFMWUw5anpjajNFVUkwUDVvVEZRb1F4ME1lZndpa2JuMUdWc2RMV19LRGFabWJ4bmEwdkNxZFhsNXB2UEtuRWY2czVRS3MtMjhNc09qcjZsWkhna0tCWDFORkxfNXA0bVRMZEg5SXkydHFXWDE1M2E3MGlBdmU?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxObDJhQXpCWDFZY2ExMWlvM20td3I1a1pJRFdkQ2Joakh3SkpmWTNMWDdjMVVNbnpwd0lrcHRVeG5IMmNGRDRtMFhnYUVPMGplT3BHRzRHVVdWemUwd2p1R2JwZkE4ZjUzZzBrbXZONkMzeWk5R0lLZjhTbEc4aEVBWktqSQ?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOTTR3OWFWWFo1ZTZLRUV4R2NzUXVRV3Z6UUFGNWtJQ1hJU1JDMEN0Sml1ZnZaUXlsYTQ2TGx1NlBoTUxlWmFnQWkxcXNvYVJFX0IzSEpWXzFZUUQwaVllN1ZDcGRGeTd2czFhMkRucW9ZeG5aVWdUOU8xVGM1X2xHSzNOaExta0dpaGJlbW5vR3RRdERmMHNoeDl3OVdEZGdxT1E5N3hpcHNCY0hH?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNaFM1X0dITWZ2b2lSOEluZjVabjJnOVA0dmM3VmNWbTFpbFp4TnFOQ1huOWxSeWNZMHlWaTBYakFwX0psTkJJVEo2M3M4X3NudmJQLUdKTFhLa1ZUd2wzOXE5Zl80NDlBX2dGcHVTR1NCOGdlckQ0R0xFQmxZZS11NQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOWk44LTU4dDlfaDJqb2hvSzJ0X2JHWlAyaVEzX1FRYVZBSVV2QWUtNU1LaUpvUkR3V0pJQjJNTHlVSkxzM0Rad3ZLemU1eDlTUlJlRmxkeVhGNDFzU0R3NkZnTzdVal9tc01fLXRrSEktd1dWUnVtQ0o1MjB2dzF0ZlpTcmNyX1hrS2dvUHdleWtBRGxkOV82dFlISUZkN1ctOEZIdk5jeUdIaExrTmQxRlJTUWVLaGRT?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-strikes-saudi-infrastructure-pushing-211940999.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/unpacking-us-justification-for-iran-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQWk9Nb1JVRVF4OGJyQXZDNjBjOXl0dTNXMDM1ZDE1RF9LSVJoTjFyZk03UUZTSFd6eFhodlZUNUgzMzJRbDh4TUpjdkVvWGpBZmhDZy0tRTRYUzdLdlc3UzRHd25CQUZNbXhKWnc0Sm5XQ283QXZCUi0yQk5STW1yenBtT3ZpM2w2aV8zWUhRWkpJWF9xU0w4M2RpYTFMMEJrYWNR?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxOMzQ1dXdtQ1lEOWZzclZuVU4tSERVU21JcnFxRFhVUF9uMWpnd1A3dTJWanE4SGJpRkp2QzhFdVlweV9DNEJkeEdLdl9UUGxCVS1HMUFjSDdjQWNYdEdTbzJCand2NFRVSjZxUkNLSU02bUpCQnR2ajVWcXA2a251ZEhTS3ZIejB0b3VtYnBjeG16T3VwVkdUcVZGMlRnRlEwYzlnVE1xelYzM2hTOXpFc2dNbGdudGxPX1czZm5TOG5BZVJrbzllemJqLVo?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBSN3NFbjZjS0ZpRm1qUnBKbGl6Yjh1Q29YYWZ1ODQyYVNnX2NydVpWODZkTHBRM08yQnZKZFZ0bHo0Q2dYQ2NERkJrdVlnZFl1Q2tmZVVaZGM1c2hGckp4LWxlLWU5S094LXc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zg54g5vvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQWm1TOGdTSmpTb3FHRzJjeGNZTDR0Y2pNaTVCeVNnbG9GRS1SRy1mb19IcFNuWE9hR1hXSkc2N2dvZU1Pd29Pdi1nWXZTQm1hME5aMkp2ZFNXWDJmbHRUMHhmNVZuN0FaSjV3Sk1mRTU0cXpOM18xWW1PXzFYS0hMRUFoakM1ckZIMVM0cTRlbXJPMUk1M1lHRThiQjhUYl9HZ3VqTE93dU0wdw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/travellers-stranded-airlines-under-pressure-as-iran-war-escalates?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/3/what-are-the-implications-of-irans-strikes-on-gulf-arab-states?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/633653-iran-minab-schoolgirls-funeral/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5lz0vgy52o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE9ZNnlqYV9mM1ZRZnc0MFlGRXZvVzdJZkVKMHZHN2tqeE40dXItRHBqZTBBMHJVVFpUT1JMekRUY21DVm5qZjc3Y3BFQ0Mwd05SZkI2OFhUa1hhdTBSMFZj?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/worst-case-scenario-trump-weighs-replacing-khamenei-as-leader-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPSTNiY2docGxMcHdCNjhHZjBJbWRTUmJDU1ZYR0tHVFdMc095a2VMSzBLaUxIa0hmdWFfM1NtaDgzcmlrUWE2QWFFSGNPelY1dWZET21NdWZlVENtU2VVVXZNdks0Rm91SU5FMVBDTUN0UGpxMXpjQkU1MUEteEpkZEFkdVVvbllmYlJPSC12WlQ?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/us-will-provide-insurance-for-ships-in-gulf-amid-iranian-attacks-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-girls-staff-killed-in-us-israel-strike-on-minab-school?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPenNLZHlGTHVkdFBkR3BNYmRZcWtDdTdscGt2aklhN1AzbzM5OUFhV0ktRE54RjVTMF9vWFhZWmpJb1VOOU81X1NvbGwtWXE4cnN4NEtxWUMyczJlWTFNZjNtWmowMDRYWXpXRzNhak1hTzhxVTBEcC1lQ3NOSlp0dDE4RjRkWmtkeEZfRmgwSTJEemdBanfSAZsBQVVfeXFMT2tmeGx3eHp1cnVGRGdvMkdNOTRMRkZqWjlLa1J3N24xZVFuenAzSjd3NGxFT3BjbklJRnc5cjhJa0oyVkhLbWRfako0QlY3Y3lXLUlOZU8yeWdjSDdIeXI1N1Z1RXVxTnVPeVFnQXlmRmotSHVJOURXeEFJOWRYOUx0MVA3aTE2MXcxS2h6NURjaV9fUlgtOXRGc0k?oc=5
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
进展要点
- 美国可能进一步升级军事行动，包括派遣地面部队，以摧毁伊朗导弹能力和核计划
- OPEC+可能调整产量政策以应对市场波动，增产决定旨在稳定油价但效果不确定
- 各国政府可能释放战略石油储备以缓解油价冲击，如韩国已宣布储备208天
- 美联储等央行加息路径可能受油价上涨驱动的通胀压力影响，政策立场或更鹰派
- 美国敦促公民撤离中东多国，反映地区安全局势恶化，可能影响外交和经济活动
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力增加和避险情绪上升
伊朗反击和美国攻击 / 军事不确定性扩大 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
OPEC+增产 / 石油供给增加 / 油价下行潜在压力 / 通胀预期缓和和市场稳定
油价上涨 / 全球能源成本上升 / 影响经济增长和企业盈利 / 股市波动加剧
来源
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083504hC0
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/new-wave-of-heavy-israeli-strikes-hit-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303074950oQe
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030738314Rj
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303065730vHK
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/633541-iran-attacks-us-bases/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-man-who-wanted-to-destroy-israel/a-76169184?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/us-israeli-strikes-hit-housing-hospitals-and-more-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303050236bRV
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxOZy1DTC1Kb2dRcFNJR19MUWpWY3JIajBQTFJoQ3JYdWYtZnNEMGZSYWRVbzZHZ2RSYjg5bEJ2bkpTZHRzQzFlLUhfeHZmZEZRWkJEY29PNjRHYTFhbF9jblpfT2d5Y2RMWmtUaHNnLWlhbk5yRk8tXzlLLUVDQmVZS1pROExLVXRMeTNhTmR6SGdWQXdRS1FPaXVTR3VUOThzd3FPeUt6VE1PQWxCRi1Qa2RrSUR4YVJjcm9Va1FTVXJaZVNPMWJWbU8xM3ZSZw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPRmJEdk53OEpnU01zWnRIak5FX2QzbjNMVGQwWm5DYUVhbmNCZzJiNXRiU2Q0c3FGU2RjWllLVUZmMF9HaWZUbmd4SzJTRUU5eU1GWWdLN0g0cUEyVVBpdGRYZ05NS3RQZU5Zdm5TUGRreFpNSUNBX1kyLTFoSnVUN3NCSUM1OFpJUTE2X3o4cDE0emk3TEMw?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPSjBuZWZ3MVFPbDJUc3YwOF9kNTJWSzYzS19ZYl9RdDUwTmFRV2E3RzJuUDVyck54VzZVX1Z4NUdhZzFHSlVVVE5XMFZFYWRwOGRFMjgxcnJDekZrNG0xdmIzMkVlbk9ldzJsTXktNTRFTXRENWlOYXNTa3RBempwRmt0eDdNVUdvekFaNTB5MFVzMTluSV9aWWtrYUVmQkFyNEZwenJKWmZ2ZFE?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNU2NHaE5XeDg3VUE2STYwLW9pcDhQMDIyblFwcDVwMGlaWUJGQzJkY1NyRTAtVS05QmpVakFfMWNSRzlJd1poLWZsSkhHMmJRa3Q5Wlh3UF94WDJaSkVLSmlILUlaZXIxa0pUMjRMbG1yM2NldVlwZURDMHpvZmFCLTV6VWlGclJzYXZR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083926kBk
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303084656Em8
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNeTZ6OFhCUVdnVUxtci1wbHNTSXZ0azNyTkRRbjN1aG5WNW5sQlVPSjhNbUZncFc3VHh5RlEzUk1FbjRGZTF5dHJRbVJSVThabWNiLWVIcmRhZUNMMjEwTW55UXVKdldlVVAyX0Z6Tl9MeVJVOEJWZ1NkbVdFOExkejJHbU93d2FhOVZRYVRLM2U1SWJRSEtqUEdabWRYV3Yxc3lrbDd6SF9NZDVWeW1lWmVZQTNONDlFRUNYa2FJSU5nV25v?oc=5
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083641gZ7
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579735.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579730.shtml
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579729.shtml
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030756415hf
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603030719278Kr
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303071916e5r
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579727.shtml
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSDVsRnRWUEg4c2hacEhwbkxLUEhyOEVfY05xRjVEajh4ZWFfOVVXb2Y0dEZsNGN1aXBMdjJIYTVwV2M0YmNnd253RDdBSTkyNW5QYTFJeHNMU1dwcUJSQW9memxMZXJuRHVOckt3U1p3WnJtVmx5NE52RWlpQ0M4VmdOODJOTkRNWGN2a0U1b0ZTTWpONDhHMnczZTVDT0I4S0ZFdjBNUmlwZm1CTUFqNFdxTQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/00df4d951aa739aa.html
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/6b03954374bb387d.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNaHRKQ2JvNjhkZG5YUl9SWjhGR2JSekg0ZmkwalBqUHpfcFU4X3Rkc2d5Nl9nOFR2UmJjeVUwZ3pIU196SEFqU285WXpHVHU1TDU4VnBXYzVlamhRRzJMREsxWXRybDlVTi12TTRXVDdzaENfVGdqd1N6T2ZTYkxyWE5adjBabkY3aE5ScTVjbG5vZw?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/rubio-suggests-timing-of-us-strikes-on-iran-was-influenced-by-israeli-plans?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
进展要点
- 美国可能加强军事部署，总统特朗普誓言继续攻击。
- 伊朗临时领导委员会可能寻求外交途径或升级冲突。
- 联合国安理会已召开紧急会议，呼吁克制。
- 全球各国可能实施制裁或支持外交解决。
- 中国和俄罗斯呼吁停火，推动多边对话。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘政治不确定性 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨
冲突外溢至其他地区 / 全球供应链中断 / 股市下跌
美国军事行动持续 / 财政支出增加 / 美元走强
来源
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260302085315eAe
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNa3BOSmhLc1liQ1h5MWdwSlI3VkxvYlNtOThEeTFnRGFzR2tXeU9TZzV3WDNpVjEwWVRvT05SMVBFdjV2Ul9FdU9lR0pfeWV2dlZydUw3bWEtX0VVRlpVSjZ6cERqTkVYWDZfbUczaXkzRkgtOEhKREpFNW5TeUU4U05ONi10ZUdKUVJSVW5KWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/4db67bdab48842a693808cc24803f9b3/c.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633393-khamenei-killing-america-and-israel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579069.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579053.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579071.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQNFBVczFkN1FqZGZQWW82VEdNemVCS0VpSm9OLUxRVGNzZnAtUDJ4TnR5Wi04M2JhRmExT2gwV3Z6TDhiLWx6ZjhjSkhFVGVFdlRNZy1qM09HUVVvdEwtNTRVM054UTFCaWtlTjR3VmtQRy1rMVl3bjJROXVycnNfOTdXXzhBYTBIMzcxSXRWdkZEa3dBRG5NbGxn?oc=5
- [9] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260301-premiers-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-tu%C3%A9s-lors-de-l-op%C3%A9ration-contre-l-iran
- [10] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-s-revolutionary-guards-pledge-revenge
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-hits-tehran-as-iran-s-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-is-killed
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260301-tensions-rise-over-strait-of-hormuz-as-tankers-caught-in-crossfire
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-targets-us-bases-in-retaliation
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260301-iran-s-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-has-died-what-are-the-reactions-on-the-gorund
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/us-confirms-american-troops-killed-wounded-in-iran-clashes/a-76177887?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579029.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579027.shtml
- [18] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c363zkp1pgxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/633367-jihad-is-coming-khameneis-death/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/video/latest-us-israel-attack-iran-130647282
- [21] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/israel-strikes-tehran-as-irans-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-was-killed/article70691620.ece
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/8fdd8eced80a4f8ebcff41ababa9766e/c.html
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/ali-chamenei-der-mann-der-israel-zerstören-wollte/a-76168647?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.dw.com/de/trump-verkündet-großen-kampfeinsatz-gegen-den-iran/a-76160970?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQN1lCSVpTTkdMUnJsbXdkR1NaQVg5Y0xWRWVCWEdCRjJpZlpabEs1RDdvYmNPU2w3OXl4aHlscGF1dVYwcjJCTi1FVnZybjBMQzNyc3JUeEZISV9WeWNQckU4Qjh4ZGVpTVNueGhGNTJRVlM2YklKQjl3QjVtNWtNZ3FSSDBCX1BrZUd3ZFdGX2lGaGNNQmFYNDJkdDdqQnFkc1BEQg?oc=5
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/khamenei-s-death-never-thought-i-would-see-this-day/a-76175776?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633168-world-reacts-us-israel-attack-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633328-iran-airspace-chaos-stranded/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/more-strikes-aimed-iran-us-035109978.html
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWlRWdS1HSGlJd3dKSkZBbWxwRGtTV1hIaDNydm1mbTlhc2VFN1dqTkRxdVRmdWZjbDZjQVlVZnFvZjVKUThJRHQwMDFja3B6RTJINlNCSGkwTEs4cFpycmhOREVmS2dkT0ctYWxCU2lwV004alg2UlZxcW5WMFFYS1NSR0hibzJEUjZrSjlaUmJ2M3dacFF3ZXFR?oc=5
2026-03-01
2026-03-01
进展要点
- 美国可能持续军事行动直至伊朗政权更迭，但面临国内法律和国际压力。
- 联合国安理会召开紧急会议，寻求外交停火，但美俄分歧可能阻碍进展。
- 各国或释放战略石油储备以平抑油价，并加强能源供应链多元化。
- 央行可能调整货币政策应对油价驱动的通胀，但增长担忧限制激进收紧。
- 伊朗宣布40天全国哀悼，临时领导委员会选举新领袖过程受关注。
关联路径
美以打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀和增长放缓
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市和风险资产下跌
伊朗政权真空 / 区域不稳定 / 石油供应中断 / 能源市场动荡
地缘政治风险 / 央行政策不确定性 / 利率和汇率波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-01/10578570.shtml
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085431RoG
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085325DhA
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-leadership-khamenei-shamkhani-pakpour-nasirzadeh.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080040SGr
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301082402NCK
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080138VzD
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003155315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-after-us-israel-strike-iran-issues-unforgettable-lesson-10-things-to-know/articleshow/128900888.cms
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-in-us-strike-who-are-his-potential-successors/articleshow/128898535.cms
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-iran-strike-heavy-and-pinpoint-bombing-will-continue-what-trump-wrote-as-he-announced-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128898991.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-leader-who-shaped-irans-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003154315
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633223-they-didnt-catch-iran-off-guard/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003153315
- [16] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003152315
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003151315
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-attack-iran-plume-of-smoke-rises-near-burj-khalifa-as-iran-missile-attack-hits-dubai-video-captures-chaos/articleshow/128894990.cms
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260301040750Sgd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603010443058D5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxQeXIwVVpWbERtSnFRX3BjR042VUl2SmpmdnE0VzBHWU93UkxNMzF2dUFRdGVwcl90NHBXYllORG1OcGhGX1ZEZHltUERPWjVnZHpQX3ppLXJUcmFPS0dBVHFqdmV3WkhBdWVHeE1oZU90cUt3UHZCX2pCQkdPWkloSS1Fc3BGUnJOQ3NyWEpmcVNCTUhyUnJoS1NuT01qM2hQTnYzRXA1M1F1RUp2enBuaDg1SUJwYkFPME1XdkRvTndQYmRkMC1sWm9GOA?oc=5
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260228-en-direct-isra%C3%ABl-lance-une-attaque-pr%C3%A9ventive-contre-l-iran-d%C3%A9cr%C3%A8te-l-%C3%A9tat-d-urgence
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260228-live-israel-says-launched-preventive-strike-against-iran-declares-state-of-emergency
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNREtzcnNZRS1jT3FXeExGamY5ck55emtiMjBYVXpkbjQyT0FzZDRQcHFIMEVEbDFMRHUtMEs4MlZYUmdzZVUwZmJkQ3AxbGdGU1R4RXdLQ3hqX2ZlV0piZjJ0VFI0MFlkTzdvWjF3WnQxMGVsaVdQS2pfTlZzZmpuU1RvYlF5NS04NGxnb05ReXAySl9Zd1E?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOYkVZQzRBSzJXaEM1WmhhRmN3LTRqUW93dzZ4bTA0WWRqNTlTZ2JsX0dQQUlOemN1MXZNSFd4bmdUOTlON3p3TVdOcXZ6MHpPRGhSRHFYSGZfX0FqNjVtTkxhLVMzN3JqWEJyY2pMb1VrLXJndldJOVpzXzhQZzF6UE1fY3NidDBaNk40SGhYNWRCaG9TMkhmZkVrU2RqXzBnd3FCQU9Icw?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-strike-iran-what-happened?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633237-has-wwiii-just-started-whats-happening-iran-israel-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g0pnnj8xyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-en-iran-aucun-moyen-de-cette-ampleur-n-avait-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-d%C3%A9ploy%C3%A9-depuis-2003
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-isra%C3%ABl-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-frappent-l-iran-comment-l-op%C3%A9ration-s-est-elle-d%C3%A9roul%C3%A9e
2026-02-28
2026-02-28
进展要点
- 德国通胀下降至1.9%，或促使欧央行提前降息，提振风险资产
- 欧盟军事建设加速，国防开支目标提高，长期影响财政政策
- 美国对伊朗实施新制裁和旅行警告，外交与军事手段并用
- IMF对乌贷款提供短期财政支持，但还款能力依赖国际援助，风险极高
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力上升
欧洲核威慑 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产上涨
俄乌管道中断 / 能源安全担忧 / EUR和欧股承压
德国通胀下降 / 欧央行降息预期 / EUR下跌、德债上涨
来源
Times of India / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / The New York Times / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dont-want-to-but-sometimes-you-have-to-trump-again-warns-iran-of-possible-military-action/articleshow/128861540.cms
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/633137-nordic-nations-host-nukes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-allows-staff-to-leave-israel-as-trump-attack-on-iran-looms/a-76157922?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/inflation-rate-faellt-ueberraschend-unter-zwei-prozent-marke-a-91486dcb-02d3-42ac-b7c4-cf9b68bbdbfd
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/633125-iran-us-talks-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/27/aje-onl-irn_genevatalks2026_av_v2-260226?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096330-war-update-57-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-heaviest-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/633113-hungary-slovakia-druzhba-commission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/middleeast/us-embassy-jerusalem-authorized-departure.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096266-at-ramstein-ukraine-unveils-its-war-plan-secures-historic-partner-support-dm-fedorov.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPWmZ0NnBLOEhNMzdJUUlXWnhFdWRpLW10eG5OWHZCT2FHM0U2dzUyVTg2enNtM0Roblg4VHdmU0s1WUUwLUNxN3hFOGdIUEdnX0t5cFNXakdIM0s4dzNYdTRlRk1OemQ4bENPSGdvOWRfbnd6aG1qV2dxZVNZdWdFQkI5ajl5WW00ZmZxY1hab2o?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/vp-vance-says-us-sees-222809233.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/hong-kong-linked-company-decries-search-of-panama-canal-port-offices?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633148-pentagon-anthropic-national-security-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/633147-americans-warning-iran-rubio/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kriegserklaerung-von-pakistan-das-sind-die-hintergruende-zum-konflikt-zwischen-pakistan-und-den-taliban-a-4098daa5-213b-4876-87a9-e33eb8edd2bf
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/633141-iraq-militia-us-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/633144-ukraine-shut-oil-pipeline-fico/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iaea-eyes-isfahan-nuclear-complex-as-it-urges-iran-to-allow?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/ukraine-claws-back-southern-territory-as-russias-war-enters-fifth-year?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633145-imf-approve-loan-kiev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-auswaertiges-amt-raet-dringend-von-reisen-ab-a-780a281e-d0b8-4b9f-9134-52e69a85d120
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQRC1jOE50RkxUYkw1YzVFamg3M0xOQjk4LVMzNmxJVTZMVEhqUGJMakVDbjBBaUJSVHVsUFc2V2EtVEtiMXlhd0VfNmNSY1pUV1BQbzd3VTRCTUZWOHdpdEdKOFNRbHp1ZkJTZGFrQ0JJWU9iUjVqSEdMQVVzaEJvS0I1b0RlZV9kQ0RKRmVsSFkyYjlsT3dNT2lFcVBkQjZkVlpjRFBVTlNiNFUxX3lzSA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/633139-us-wants-war-iran-ritter/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/marco-rubio-plans-israel-trip-as-trump-says-hes-not-happy-with-iran-talk?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633132-pakistan-and-afghanistan-are-at-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNNEJmUVJrMUpHUHZicWN1NlJHTmlYa3BfdXI4UTdDS3dhbDlGbFdzQzQ1MGxUYVU2ckxsT3FnSEl2eXdDRlozODAxZzgtMXJuUmItMVF5QThVcFllZ2dCa0xWLTVXemhfeHFKem11Rk5kV1RpUnE1WnNHVDBkMHZKTlJLSkIxWW15ZVgxOG5PUHplUGkyZGE4aGpocWFTYWo0S1VJYw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096376-russian-army-attacks-three-districts-of-dnipropetrovsk-region-over-three-dozen-times-causing-damage.html
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/27/residents-describe-panic-as-pakistan-attacks-afghanistan-in-open?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iran-says-us-must-drop-excessive-demands-in-nuclear-negotiations?traffic_source=rss
2026-02-27
2026-02-27
进展要点
- 日本央行理事暗示加息以应对通胀风险，市场关注货币政策转向信号。
- 韩国央行维持基准利率2.5%不变，上调2026年增长预期至2%，反映亚洲经济韧性。
- 美国抵押贷款利率三年来首次跌破6%，借贷成本降低可能刺激经济活动。
- 欧盟推出900亿欧元乌克兰援助计划，财政扩张增加欧元区债务压力。
- 中国实施对日出口管制，贸易政策趋紧，可能影响全球供应链。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌核威胁 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金上涨、股市下跌
中美贸易摩擦 / 供应链中断 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
日本央行加息暗示 / 日元升值 / 全球利率预期调整 / 套利交易逆转
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / German Foreign Office Press Releases / KBS World News / German Federal Foreign Office
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577302.shtml
- [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-met-us-trade-104937996.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/633096-ukraine-nukes-france-uk-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202602270343599DY
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/boj-board-member-hints-at-rate-hikes-to-keep-ahead-of-inflation-risk
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/2757498-2757498
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227013818iIw
- [8] http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=199741
- [9] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2758258-2758258
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095967-war-update-120-combat-clashes-since-dawn-afu-have-success-in-northern-slobozhanshchyna-and-kursk-sectors.html
- [11] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/e4f19a798abdc080.html
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/633078-iran-and-united-states-met-geneva/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/02/24/declaration-des-dirigeants-du-g7-sur-la-guerre-en-ukraine
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/how-trumps-2026-iran-war-script-echoes-and-twists-the-2003-iraq-playbook?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577282.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577278.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577293.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577292.shtml
- [19] https://news.sky.com/story/significant-progress-in-us-iran-talks-but-no-deal-as-negotiations-to-resume-next-week-13512695
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-fall-below-6-for-first-time-in-over-3-years-110032209.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633101-iran-us-geneva-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-good-progress-in-us-talks-next-round-within-a-week/article70681431.ece
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227065659cma
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghanistan-launches-military-strikes-on-pakistan-updates/article70681434.ece
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/26/iranian-foreign-minister-says-us-iran-moving-closer-to-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633087-thomas-penn-franco-british-nuke-plot-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633076-us-iran-nuclear-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/us-and-iran-meet-in-geneva-for-talks-amid-military-posturing/a-76128226?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4096039-next-round-of-peace-talks-to-be-held-in-abu-dhabi-in-early-march-zelensky.html
2026-02-26
2026-02-26
进展要点
- 美联储政策受地缘风险和通胀影响，利率路径不确定性增加。
- 日本央行再通胀派任命可能推动宽松政策，日元贬值压力上升。
- 欧洲央行关注贸易紧张和能源风险，货币政策保持谨慎。
- 澳大利亚通胀持稳，但RBA可能维持鹰派立场以控制通胀。
- 美国关税政策实施细节待明确，全球贸易协议面临调整。
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
美国关税 / 全球贸易收缩 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
BOJ宽松预期 / 日元贬值 / 亚洲货币压力 / 区域汇率波动
来源
RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/633038-us-f22-israel-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-nuclear-talks-deal-or-military-strike/a-76120548?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010600315
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010651315
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5VWWp2VmJHb0liMGVrZE5KMVFSTGdtcnZmWFJGc3BYNllRZTBuQmIzMHRteEZhaWJRem8xeTdPWTJlbXAzMzhtUkVOUEt2c0VlZGNaaHBtTU05UDhlXzRIQ2NBS3NpUkZkdHlUTVAwQmo?oc=5
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/japan-picks-reflationists-for-boj-board-echoing-takaichi-s-policy-view
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/us-issues-new-sanctions-as-it-dials-up-pressure-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-trump-lays-out-case-for-possible-attack-on-iran-in-state-of-the-union-address
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge821xwyz8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/7e819bdee446797a.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260225214248P2A
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/2/25/four-years-into-the-ukraine-war-moscow-sees-vindication-not-failure?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/bJ0L6pzhsU8kjJi3lMFRi
- [14] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/nvidia-reports-73-revenue-jump-but-warns-on-china-uncertainties
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kuba-grenztruppen-greifen-us-schnellboot-an-vier-tote-a-8d7b55c4-a9e2-4b05-96f5-ad2e4b8dbbd4
- [17] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095617-ukraine-insists-at-un-on-ceasefire-as-basis-for-peace-talks-betsa-says.html
- [18] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-roughly-2-week-low-against-us-dollar-on-boj-board-picks
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/business/trump-tariffs-refunds-lawsuits.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260225-discours-sur-l-%C3%A9tat-de-l-union-de-d-trump-l-am%C3%A9rique-d-abord-%C3%A0-quel-prix
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cant-let-craziest-regime-to-have-nuclear-weapons-jd-vance-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-geneva/articleshow/128791664.cms
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095557-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-russian-s400-triumf-pantsir-and-grad-systems-in-occupied-territories.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-iran-us-talks-set-to-resume-in-geneva-as-trump-ups-pressure
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/world/asia/china-germany-merz-visit-xi.html
- [25] https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/Jim-Chalmers-2022/media-releases/Inflation-steady-in-January
- [26] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/O5M0QLVwbVE7A1uwQIJj-
- [27] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2757258-2757258
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633024-iran-nuclear-trump-accusations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxQWWhpcEY4Rk1HMUE1S2dFd1pGcVRZQ1hibjl1WXBqamtRaXhyam1XbVE0Y1RoTkhWSFYwQVpPbFFJM21NTXZPdFd4cWtTMmlPdjE2V3ktd3dLXzIzNnlQMFpCNnVQVlZFUndQQnVGTWd5Tk5rWFkzME5IMVdaVnU1RmxmTHI?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSFc3VlA2cG5id0ZOQ0dxemtYc2VhSkJtZVg4ZzZhaU5XMzVTOVRxMnRNQ01TNTgzTG84UjdQZHJLaW9lQi1uNjY2ckN5NGpvNmthWjZ1ZG5BWklKRl9hVTBsSWFaY1M5aW9xblZXdVNKTGI4OUxoR3VKcjlmeGRwVlh4QlhEZDl3UnByVUFEc044dnI2cGVBTUZyM2lhYjFWa0ZMWVBaRmgtZU96VUh0Tkcxdw?oc=5
2026-02-25
2026-02-25
进展要点
- 美联储货币政策保持中性，贴现率会议纪要未释放激进信号。
- 美国贸易政策波动，特朗普可能通过新法律依据实施额外关税。
- 欧洲继续支持乌克兰，但需协调内部分歧以维持制裁效力。
- 日本通胀放缓可能促使日央行维持鸽派立场，支持股市。
- 中国科技产业政策加速，芯片自给目标推动供应链调整。
关联路径
美伊紧张升级 / 中东供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌战争持续 / 能源和粮食供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
美国关税政策波动 / 贸易不确定性 / 全球增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
涉台紧张 / 区域风险升级 / 避险情绪 / 日元和黄金需求增加
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Fed / State Duma of Russia - News / German Federal Government News / ANTARA News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576199.shtml
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576183.shtml
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/2/24/state-of-the-union-live-trump-to-address-nation-amid-tariff-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQR0dENGtNRnNpRjFmX0UzLW5YbW1pRE5sdjN1S3VpbkhfcC1FV2p3V3dtZlN1cGk4UVN6R05ockNfT3QyVGZtNHd5cV9wZnBVRDBqbDlBS1FXdV80Y0J3dmpfWVNPdHF4eVRoLTRLQWNnX2RvMVJEdjN2NEpLa3RLR25iM1VrS1dWb0w5OXBfcnRkdllJcHp4NExoYTk0OXQybXdCQ1kzUGdjSlhL?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQbXAxc2wwZEZXQjdxSnVZZXNmVVdDSzc0NzdGYXFzNDEzS1lUQ19QaXJtZ3lSV3U0bDBYNWNPQV9ndFZWU1REaUJLVWZaMTFFajJBOG9wT2VMSUM2LTJ2a0FzakVwY19vSlAwQkptQTAwZGdzdzQ4Vms1OHoxVm16NHJfa2FnaEtRay1FYlVJcGRDcnh3blZjdDJ4OV9WLXQ0WWRHVVMzX2V2bE5jMVJDYnZETQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNb2VFeXBiRnh2UFlkampWRER5cThwZHZUQ2Z3VGlRaW44Sk4wYVA4Tm1qX0d2VGJIN0lpTjY3Q2dYcVY3cHo3dnptN0JyWE9zRmtlWFZUXzZPZlRQMEF5dmhwZ2VBQmdiZDQ4T082RDVCaDVWSmNsVktrUGoySWVMSTNnNWV3WVZOVXZYWTFhODZnMGxBQ3pDcW5IMW9FaWoxOGRCYzFXRFc5UFHSAbABQVVfeXFMTmxDb21QY2d6LUQyc3lCYXRXaWNOeklZUV9LVHNJazJvZVFpWTN4WWRtd19XYXZKUmNzUkVxbVFZLVJqX3RieW5vNDZfYVpKNFBRU3RheUU4RlNPSXBuZU1GMVpwMWlXMmF5MEw2QXBDYXpMUUtqZ3l4bVplN09haWU1MW5pWnlzdjVjb2xyRmhVakRsQ3BRLURKWkE3ZHBESmpPb1VxMjZ
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNMVoxQzM1QW93QTNXV0R2RzB1ZWVyLWI0VW9FSHlKWk5FUTB0YkpNc2lCNTFHd01ZOTNQUEhpQXFQWXY3VHlzMUVudHdvdUFDNFZmWjFSdVp5bGUwejNUWXppTTJNbHN3SURJTzcwSVNrenpodjFpMUN0THlOQ0FhZkx0aHl2cTg0d21iS1lLLXYtcUJCaFExVlJVR1VLblQ4SlprdFI4c3dSLUZjSGFmUkx0OV90MUVGcnYwUWFYZmdTeUE5?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE9yc1hKTEpwV3h5SkMwTjVFUmY0Q3d3blo0TWNXMzAwajlnb1dMOUZCTGVaeGxkUUFCcm8wRUZrel80VWZOUlBudzJiS2NzTWZKMkJ2MQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260224a.htm
- [10] http://duma.gov.ru/en/news
- [11] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/co-chairs-statement-coalition-of-the-willing-call-24-february-2026-2408478
- [12] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5435854/china-desak-as-hentikan-tarif-global-sepihak-baru-10-persen
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/632991-kallas-russian-assets-theft/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095073-war-update-50-clashes-on-front-line-fighting-continues-in-four-sectors.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/de/usa-und-iran-säbelrasseln-im-atomstreit/a-76106219?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxPSGZtcGVJc3QwQS1xVW4wUHNCM2FYVzZLWTZ2Zk90elNHSVBYdXVuVGxMN0lOQTJWa2Fzc0tueFlSSHFlaFp3RjUtekFGUkpWLVlWNTZjTVpESlpRM3lOWFFTb0hxZExGOHhqVm9xY0NDQ0dkODFSVnUtV2hLbW5FbNIBhgFBVV95cUxQbFpwMmxVMk1TT3RJU3ZlYlRqd1g2cTVoT3p1YlVSczZ1aXVmaGZsY3NZNzN0M3FCbl9oNDFVa1kxTDlfOWk5X2pqUTZFbXcxclo5dVpWbGgtNHluR0ZxeUVwZ3V1NWstQ2lPY0JjRHNnb09mRFh1Vm1BYndDck9HYnZ4ZG1DUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1038942/trump-jajaki-skema-tarif-baru-usai-putusan-mahkamah-agung-as
- [18] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/04ff54e9ab07efbd.html
- [19] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/01180e362b158f46.html
- [20] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/d83e4d3bb21cdefc.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/632957-trump-iran-bad-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4094965-ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-logistics-command-posts-atacms-missiles-hit-targets.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576184.shtml
- [24] https://news.sky.com/story/european-leaders-came-together-in-solidarity-on-ukraine-war-fourth-anniversary-but-peace-seems-a-long-way-off-13511729
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576177.shtml
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095209-nordic-baltic-countries-to-provide-eur-125b-in-defense-support-to-ukraine-zelensky.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/russia-has-not-won-as-ukraine-war-enters-fifth-year-zelenskyy-says?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/tech-asia/china-aims-for-5-fold-increase-in-advanced-chip-output-to-meet-ai-demand
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/24/what-to-expect-from-trumps-state-of-the-union-address-2?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/02/23/42411
2026-02-24
2026-02-24
进展要点
- 特朗普政府可能继续使用行政权力实施关税，国会反应是关键。
- 美联储或关注通胀和汇率波动，利率政策受地缘风险影响。
- 欧盟需应对匈牙利等成员国的阻挠，推动对乌援助和制裁。
- 各国可能寻求外交途径缓解贸易和地缘紧张，但进展缓慢。
- 美国对伊朗军事选项仍在考虑中，谈判结果将决定冲突方向。
关联路径
关税威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 股市下跌和避险资产上涨
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀担忧
欧盟内部分歧 / 乌克兰援助延迟 / 欧元承压和能源紧张
AI技术恐慌 / 科技股抛售 / 市场情绪恶化
来源
ABC News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://abcnews.com/Business/stocks-tick-lower-after-trump-ratchets-tariffs/story?id=130407007
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260223-l-ue-suspend-la-mise-en-oeuvre-de-son-accord-commercial-avec-les-etats-unis
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260223-eu-hits-pause-on-trade-deal-with-us-trump-warns-countries-not-to-play-games-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224085849AAo
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224090135XIg
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084544ukS
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084052pwz
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-secretary-initiated-january-s-yen-dollar-rate-check-sources
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224073233Pgh
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260223-trump-menace-une-nouvelle-escalade
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-he-ll-raise-tariffs-to-15-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260223-why-the-threat-of-bombing-campaign-trump-s-iran-gambit
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224065241EuW
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260224/84374dde8fbd4226aa8c5a424796e21a/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224062855mu7
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/2/23/are-the-us-and-iran-moving-closer-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/23/trumps-new-tariff-threats-trigger-economic-uncertainty-trade-deals-stall?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/632935-hungary-ukraine-loan-veto/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.dw.com/de/zeitenwende-an-der-front-vier-jahre-krieg-in-der-ukraine/a-76058071?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/eu-sanctions-russian-officials-as-hungary-blocks-funds-to-ukraine?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224024633GH2
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rv212wwyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-unimaginable-force-iran-attacks-180831400.html
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/iran-banks-big-on-murky-oil-trustees-as-war-with-us-on-the-horizon?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260223-iran-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-sous-la-menace-d-une-frappe-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-hungary-blocks-eu-ukraine-loan-russia-sanctions-on-eve-of-war-anniversary
- [27] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5433530/ancam-kenakan-tarif-lebih-tinggi-trump-sebut-tak-perlu-restu-kongres
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-us-trade-deals-thrown-into-doubt-after-trump-s-new-tariffs
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-ukraine-europe-on-the-front-line
- [30] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-nervous-times-in-tehran-ahead-of-crunch-us-talks-and-strike-threat
2026-02-23
2026-02-23
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策：短期内，特朗普政府将依赖《贸易法》301条、《贸易扩展法》232条等工具维持高压关税态势，法律挑战将持续。
- 韩国应对：加速推进《对美投资特别法》立法（目标下月9日），并通过民官联合会议寻求出口多元化和竞争力强化，被动应对色彩浓厚。
- 欧盟立场：坚持“协议就是协议”（DW），但面对美国单边行动，除外交反对外缺乏有效制衡手段。
- 货币政策环境：全球增长风险与地缘性通胀风险（油价）并存，主要央行政策路径复杂性增加，可能推迟宽松周期。
关联路径
美国关税提高至15% / 全球贸易成本激增 & 供应链扰动 / 企业利润下调 & 经济增长预期恶化 / 全球股市（尤其出口国）& 周期类资产下跌。
美伊 / 俄乌地缘风险升级 / 石油供应中断风险溢价上升 & 避险情绪高涨 / 油价 & 黄金 & 美元同步上涨 / 风险资产（股票、公司债）遭抛售。
美国301条款调查启动 / 特定国家（如中国、巴西）及行业（如半导体、汽车）面临精准打击风险 / 相关国家货币、股市及行业ETF波动加剧。
欧盟对俄制裁内部分歧（匈牙利阻挠） / 削弱对乌支持效力 & 暴露欧盟政治裂痕 / 欧元汇率承压 & 欧洲资产风险溢价上升。
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times
2026-02-22
2026-02-22
进展要点
- 美国贸易政策转向强硬，关注后续行政命令及国会反应，可能使用其他法律工具维持关税。
- 欧洲需协调对俄乌冲突的能源和安全政策，应对内部成员国分歧。
- 中东外交努力聚焦美伊谈判，但军事选项风险上升，可能影响核协议进程。
- 韩国等贸易依赖型国家将加强政策应对，评估产业影响并寻求多边协调。
关联路径
全球关税上调 / 贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中东紧张加剧 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
政策不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流向安全资产
来源
Yonhap News TV / Xinhua World / China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Sky News / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top)
2026-02-21
2026-02-21
进展要点
- 美联储面临通胀超预期压力，鹰派预期可能升温，影响利率路径。
- 特朗普贸易政策反复，基于《1974年贸易法》的新关税实施细节待澄清。
- 美国最高法院裁决限制总统紧急权力，但特朗普寻求替代法律途径。
- 欧盟对俄制裁和能源政策分歧持续，可能影响内部团结和能源安全。
- 伊朗核协议谈判进入关键期，外交进展或军事行动将决定中东局势。
关联路径
特朗普新全球关税 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长担忧 / 避险资产上涨
美伊军事紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应风险 / 油价和黄金上涨
通胀超预期 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 股市承压
欧盟对乌援助受阻 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
Nikkei Asia / RT News / ABC News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business)
2026-02-20
2026-02-20
进展要点
- 美联储政策受白宫干预，信誉受损可能影响未来利率路径。
- 美国贸易逆差创新高，关税政策效果有限，引发市场对贸易战担忧。
- 制裁延长对俄施压，但可能加剧地缘紧张，影响全球供应链。
- 中东和平委员会承诺加沙重建资金，但军事行动持续增加政策矛盾。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 风险资产承压
俄乌会谈进展 / 地缘风险降低 / 风险资产反弹 / 避险需求下降
美联储政策不确定性 / 美元走弱 / 黄金和外汇市场波动
贸易逆差扩大 / 关税政策失效担忧 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
来源
Xinhua World / ABC News / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / UN News / Yahoo News - World / Sky News
2026-02-19
2026-02-19
进展要点
- 美联储政策路径将密切关注地缘冲突引发的能源通胀压力。
- 欧洲央行面临能源供应中断与通胀反弹的双重压力，货币政策可能被迫维持更长时间的限制性。
- 美国或加大对伊朗的制裁压力，并可能强化对中东盟友的安全承诺。
- 欧盟可能被迫加速能源来源多样化，并协调成员国应对能源供应冲击。
- 美国对华核指控（据RT新闻报道）可能加剧双方战略不信任，影响双边关系氛围。
- 英国新政府延续并强化对乌军事援助及欧洲防务领导角色（据RT新闻报道）。
关联路径
中东 / 俄乌冲突升级 / 石油 / 天然气供应风险 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策预期转鹰 / 利率敏感型资产（成长股、债券）承压
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪 / 资金流向黄金、美元、美债 / 风险资产（新兴市场货币、欧股）承压
能源危机风险（欧洲） / EUR区增长与通胀前景恶化 / EUR贬值 / 美元被动走强
美联储政策信号（纪要） / 全球流动性预期调整 / 风险资产估值重估
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / RT News / Fed / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Xinhua Finance
2026-02-18
2026-02-18
进展要点
- 美国可能对伊朗实施新制裁或军事施压
- 欧洲或加强制裁俄罗斯，支持乌克兰防御
- 中国可能驳斥美国指控并推动外交回应
- 英国务实对华政策可能影响欧美对华协调
- 国际原子能机构可能在美伊谈判中发挥技术作用
关联路径
美伊谈判紧张 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策调整
俄乌战事升级 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市下跌
美中紧张关系 / 全球贸易风险 / 避险情绪上升 / 资产波动加剧
2026-02-15
2026-02-15
进展要点
- 货币政策：地缘政治风险成为央行（如ECB）决策的关键变量，可能延缓降息周期或加剧政策分化。
- 美国外交与军事政策：特朗普政府在中东呈现‘以战迫和’态势，军事选项优先级明显提升。
- 欧洲防务与产业政策：战略自主将从口号加速转向具体预算与项目（如联合防务工业）。
- 制裁与出口管制：美国将持续高强度执法，重点针对规避对俄制裁及对华技术封锁的行为。
- 财政政策：冲突相关国家（如乌克兰、欧洲前线国家）及大国（如美国）的国防开支压力增大。
- 能源政策：欧洲将加速能源来源多元化以降低地缘风险，但对传统能源的短期依赖可能回升。
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 原油供应预期收紧 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期重估 / 央行政策更谨慎 / 风险资产重定价
美欧战略分歧 / 全球政策碎片化 / 贸易与投资不确定性上升 / 增长预期下调 / 企业盈利承压 / 股市估值压缩
俄乌冲突持续 / 升级 / 欧洲能源安全担忧 + 国防开支大增 / 欧元区滞胀压力 / 欧央行政策困境 / EUR疲软 & 欧洲股市相对弱势
核军控失效 + 多地冲突 / 系统性风险溢价永久性上升 / 长期避险资产（黄金、部分国债）配置价值重估 / 风险资产长期估值中枢下移
2026-02-14
2026-02-14
进展要点
- 美联储可能因通胀降温而考虑降息，支撑风险资产
- 中国社会融资规模创新高，显示宽松货币政策持续，支持经济增长
- 欧洲防务开支增加，可能推高财政赤字，影响欧元区经济
- 美国气候政策变化可能带来法规不确定性，影响能源市场
- 制裁政策（如对伊朗、古巴）持续，加剧贸易和供应风险
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力
美国CPI降温 / 美联储降息预期 / 股市上涨 / 美元走弱
俄乌冲突 / 黑海航运风险 / 全球粮食和能源供应波动
欧洲政治紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
2026-02-13
2026-02-13
进展要点
- 美联储货币政策面临不确定性，需观察通胀数据和金融稳定性以决定利率路径。
- 美国贸易政策持续施压，如对日本汽车关税导致利润损失，可能引发报复措施。
- 欧洲寻求自主防卫，减少对美依赖，政策改革和防务合作将加速。
- 气候法规放松可能短期提振能源行业，但长期加剧环境风险和监管不确定性。
- 制裁与出口控制收紧，如美国对华半导体管制，影响全球供应链和科技股。
关联路径
俄乌地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
美国金融危机信号 / 安全港需求变化 / 贵金属价格暴跌
AI担忧加剧 / 科技股抛售 / 全球股市避险情绪
2026-02-12
2026-02-12
进展要点
- 美联储可能在强就业数据后维持或收紧政策。
- 欧盟推进资本市场改革和防务合作。
- 美国国会预算办公室预测赤字债务恶化。
- 潜在美印尼关税协议影响区域贸易流动。
- 美国以中国影响力为由制裁太平洋岛国官员。
关联路径
强劲美国就业 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元↑、利率↑
伊朗紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 油价↑、黄金↑
俄乌升级 / 能源供应风险 / 大宗商品↑
欧盟改革 / 增长乐观 / 欧元↑、股市↑
2026-02-11
2026-02-11
进展要点
- 美联储政策受地缘风险影响，避险情绪可能延迟加息
- 中国央行维持适度宽松，定向支持科技、绿色等领域
- 日本央行或面临美国加息压力（三月美日峰会前）
- 欧盟财政一体化受阻（德国否决欧元债券）
- 特朗普政府持续运用关税与制裁作为外交工具
- 欧洲战略自主性推进，但内部分歧明显
关联路径
美伊军事升级 / 中东石油供应中断 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升
俄乌冲突升级 / 欧洲能源危机深化 / 工业活动放缓 / 欧元区衰退风险
美国关税政策不确定性 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长预期下调 / 风险资产抛售
台海紧张 / 科技供应链中断风险 / 半导体板块波动 / 全球风险情绪恶化
2026-02-10
2026-02-10
进展要点
- 欧洲央行保持中性政策立场，关注通胀和增长平衡
- 美国可能对华加征关税，施压贸易伙伴削减俄能源进口
- 中国深化经济体制改革，推动高质量发展和外资流入
- 日本央行低调减持ETF，可能推动日元升值
- 伊朗制裁解除前景取决于核谈判进展，影响全球石油供应
- 西方对乌克兰防空援助加强，但交付时间不确定
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突持续 / 能源供应中断 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元走强
中美贸易摩擦 / 关税威胁 / 风险资产抛售 / 日元和瑞郎升值
中国减持美债 / 美债收益率上升 / 美元贬值 / 新兴市场货币压力
2026-02-09
2026-02-09
进展要点
- 日本可能加速修宪和防卫政策调整，推动'强日本'议程
- 美国对伊朗保持强硬制裁，但开放谈判窗口，政策取决于外交进展
- 白宫重申支持强势美元，但市场反应有限，需观察美联储动向
- 特朗普政府加强美日联盟，可能增加对日武器销售和区域军事合作
关联路径
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金、美元需求增加
中东冲突 / 石油供应担忧 / 油价波动并影响通胀预期
日本政策变化 / 亚洲地区风险 / 资产价格调整和汇率波动
谈判僵局 / 不确定性升高 / 全球资本流向避险资产
2026-02-08
2026-02-08
进展要点
- EU likely to implement 20th sanctions package on Russia, focusing on energy and banking sectors.
- US maintaining 'maximum pressure' on Iran with sanctions and tariffs, while engaging in diplomatic talks.
- UK tilting towards rate cuts as inflation expectations fall, influencing European monetary policy.
- India-US trade deal execution to proceed, reducing tariffs and boosting bilateral trade, setting a precedent for US trade strategy.
- Potential for further sanctions on Russia and Iran, with EU and US coordinating on export controls.
关联路径
EU sanctions on Russia / Russian oil supply constraints / Global oil price increase / Inflationary pressures / Central bank policy responses
Middle East tensions / Iran threats and US actions / Oil market volatility / Risk-off sentiment / Safe-haven asset flows
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy infrastructure damage / European gas supply risks / Economic growth concerns / Equity market sell-offs
US-India trade deal / Tariff reductions / Improved trade sentiment / Regional equity gains (e.g., Indian markets) / Broader EM optimism
2026-02-07
2026-02-07
进展要点
- 美联储政策：关注鹰派主席提名进展和利率路径，市场波动可能持续。
- 欧洲央行：维持利率稳定，政策谨慎，未来取决于通胀数据。
- 中国财政刺激：国务院研究促进有效投资，旨在稳定经济增长。
- 美国制裁政策：对伊朗和俄罗斯的制裁持续，可能升级，影响全球贸易和能源。
- 中国经济增长：政策支持稳健，对全球贡献约30%，但需监控投资效果。
关联路径
美股反弹 / 全球风险情绪改善 / 风险资产上涨，美元波动
美伊制裁 / 中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨，通胀预期升
俄乌冲突 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强， equities受压
中美紧张 / 安全港需求 / USD / Gold up，贸易流调整
2026-02-06
2026-02-06
进展要点
- 美联储政策不确定性高，鹰派信号与弱就业数据矛盾
- 欧洲央行维持利率不变，政策稳定，但全球经济前景不确定
- 美国财政部长未排除起诉美联储的可能性，威胁政策独立性
- 特朗普关税政策影响全球贸易，需监控后续行动
关联路径
美俄军控失效 / 地缘紧张升级 / 避险资产需求上升
美联储鹰派信号 / 美元走强 / 金银价格下跌
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期变化
股市抛售 / 避险情绪升温 / 美元和黄金需求
2026-02-05
2026-02-05
进展要点
- 欧洲央行可能维持鸽派立场，因通胀低于目标，支持宽松货币政策。
- 美国继续通过外交和制裁施压伊朗和中国，贸易和能源政策偏向保护主义。
- 欧盟财政整合推进，对乌贷款显示共同债务工具使用，可能影响欧元区债券市场。
- 某国央行加息至10.25%（国家未指明），反映新兴市场通胀压力或资本流动管理。
- 关注美联储对地缘风险和油价上涨的反应，可能调整利率预期。
关联路径
地缘冲突升级 / 能源供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
外交谈判进展 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹和避险资产回调
央行鸽派信号 / 货币贬值 / 出口竞争力和资本流动变化
制裁和脱钩政策 / 供应链重组 / 商品价格波动和贸易摩擦
2026-02-04
2026-02-04
进展要点
- 美国政府支出法案通过，但国土安全部资金仅延长两周，移民政策争议待解。
- 美联储政策受地缘风险影响，可能偏向鸽派以应对避险情绪。
- 中国推进人民币国际化，长期可能挑战美元主导地位。
- 欧盟尝试与俄罗斯重启对话，但内部分歧和乌克兰局势复杂化。
关联路径
中东地缘紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产需求
俄乌冲突加剧 / 欧洲能源危机风险 / 黄金和美元走强
美国政府停摆结束 / 财政不确定性降低 / 风险资产短期支撑
贸易协议调整 / 全球供应链重塑 / 商品价格和汇率波动
2026-02-03
2026-02-03
进展要点
- 美联储在沃什领导下可能转向更鹰派立场，加快加息步伐。
- 美国贸易政策重心向印度偏移，但对中国保持压力。
- 欧盟-印度FTA推动区域经济整合，提振增长预期。
- OPEC+维持减产，支撑油价但面临需求侧压力。
- 美国政府财政僵局可能短期解决，但长期预算争议持续。
关联路径
美联储鹰派预期 / 全球风险规避 / 股市、大宗商品同步下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价波动与避险资产需求
美印贸易协议 / 关税降低 / 改善双边贸易与风险情绪
美伊紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应恐惧与地缘风险溢价
2026-02-02
2026-02-02
进展要点
- 美联储鹰派主席提名若确认，可能加速加息或缩表，支撑美元。
- OPEC+暂停增产政策将维持原油供应紧张，支撑油价和通胀预期。
- 特朗普政府移民政策引发国内抗议，可能影响政治稳定和市场情绪。
- 韩国房地产政策收紧可能拖累经济增长，增加韩元贬值压力。
- 印度预算案细节未充分，需监控财政赤字和改革措施。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突加剧 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求增加
美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场货币贬值和资本外流
OPEC+产量不变 / 原油供应受限 / 能源价格上涨 / 企业成本上升
2026-02-01
2026-02-01
进展要点
- 美联储新主席提名可能带来鹰派政策转向，加息预期上升。
- 美国政府停摆风险持续，影响财政政策和市场信心。
- 美国关税政策不确定性，韩国等面临上调威胁。
- 印度发布2026年预算案，强调财政纪律和债务削减。
- 英国转向中国寻求经济增长，但受美国压力影响。
关联路径
Fed chair nomination / monetary policy uncertainty / global risk repricing
Middle East tensions / oil supply risk / inflation and safe-haven demand
U.S. government shutdown / policy instability / market volatility
Russia-Ukraine conflict / geopolitical risk / gold and USD appreciation
2026-01-31
2026-01-31
进展要点
- 美联储主席提名可能导致更宽松的货币政策。
- 欧盟考虑动用紧急基金支持国防开支。
- WTO裁定美国清洁能源补贴违规，可能影响贸易关系。
- 美国政府拨款协议在最后时刻面临障碍。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力 / 央行响应
美联储政策转向 / 利率下降 / 美元走弱 / 新兴市场资金流
地缘政治风险 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元走强
贸易争端 / 供应链中断 / 全球增长担忧