Russia-Ukraine war escalation with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, increasing humanitarian and supply chain disruptions.；Iran-US tensions heightening with mutual threats and sanctions, risking broader Middle East conflict.

Oil (Brent/WTI): Upward pressure from EU/Russia sanctions and Middle East tensions; watch for supply disruptions.；Gold: Likely to strengthen on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.

Outcome of Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran negotiations and potential policy shifts.；Implementation details of EU's 20th sanctions package and impact on Russian energy exports.

EU likely to implement 20th sanctions package on Russia, focusing on energy and banking sectors.；US maintaining 'maximum pressure' on Iran with sanctions and tariffs, while engaging in diplomatic talks.

Trajectory (Escalating): Despite peace talks and US June deadline, military actions intensify with grid attacks and increased frontline clashes.；Russia launched massive attacks on Ukraine's power grid, causing widespread outages and calls for Polish aid. 关键事件：EU announces 20th sanctions package targeting Russian energy (European Commission)；Russia attacks Ukraine power grid, Kyiv calls for aid (France 24) 关注：Monitor progress in peace talks versus military escalation; nuclear safety risks remain elevated with IAEA warnings.

Trajectory (Escalating): Sanctions broaden with EU's 20th package on Russia and US tariffs on Iran traders, tightening economic pressure.；EU proposed full ban on services tied to Russian oil trade, aiming to curb war funding. 关键事件：EU pushes for full ban on Russian oil trade services (Financial Times)；Trump signs order imposing tariffs on Iran-trading countries (Yonhap News) 关注：Expect further sanctions rollouts and compliance challenges; watch for impacts on global supply chains and commodity markets.

Trajectory (Pivoting): From diplomatic talks to renewed tensions with Iran threats and US-Israel meetings, indicating fragile negotiations.；Iran warned of striking US bases if attacked, following indirect US-Iran talks in Oman with no breakthrough. 关键事件：Iran warns it will strike US bases if attacked (RT News)；Netanyahu to hold urgent meeting with Trump on Iran (Axios) 关注：Focus on outcome of Netanyahu-Trump meeting and next round of US-Iran talks; risk of miscalculation remains high.