信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-05-17
来源数
80
大陆
3
港澳台
0
海外
77
官媒/官方
6
非官媒
74
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
78
中文覆盖
3
英文覆盖
37
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Australia / Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体Le Monde International · 海外 / 媒体The New York Times · 海外 / 媒体Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体n-tv Politik · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合Die Zeit Politics · 海外 / 媒体The New Indian Express · 海外 / 媒体SOL · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #3 · 海外 / 媒体9News Australia · 海外 / 媒体
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 77 个，大陆信源 3 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 37 个，中文信源 3 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: SC原油 / AU黄金 / FU燃油
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 18 / 待复核 16 / 已复核 2 / 已延展 24
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近动作: 重设锚点 · manual_reframe_market_watch_anchor_refresh
最近检查点
- AU 5y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- AU 3y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- AU 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- AU 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-05-17
2026-05-17
进展要点
- 布伦特原油：受霍尔木兹及俄油制裁双支撑，短期偏强，关注伊朗机制细节。
- 黄金：地缘避险需求持续，突破前高可期。
- 美元指数：避险资金流入，美元维持强势，尤其对新兴市场货币。
- 美股：风险情绪承压，但众议院战争决议失败减轻部分政治不确定性。
- 韩元：跟随KOSPI暴跌，外汇干预风险上升。
- 美债收益率：避险买盘压低长端利率，但通胀预期限制下行空间。
关联路径
伊朗海峡收费 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价暴涨 / 全球通胀预期回升
台湾独立言论 / 中美对峙升级 / 地缘风险溢价 / 新兴市场资本外流
俄油制裁恢复 / 供应收紧 / 能源价格上行 / 欧洲经济压力
多线冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金美元 / 权益债券波动
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/17/iran-war-live-tehran-eyes-tolls-in-hormuz-trump-warns-of-very-bad-time?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/05/16/taiwan-revendique-son-independance-apres-une-mise-en-garde-de-donald-trump_6689757_3210.html
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/economy/china-tariffs-trump-summit.html
- [4] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-zu-waffenverkauf-an-taiwan-gutes-druckmittel-fuer-usa-50646913
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260517081519Kel
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Sanktionen-gegen-russisches-Oel-greifen-wieder-id30828365.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxOaTducmtkWk5TSUMzWHdKTmNsRkU3RnFDanVwaVUzTWVXY1d6YVhLYmpURjQ4MmZlVFJFTTRveEFvVnhlYUtVOFlCYVJDWFozX0VfTGtZSWlKanAwVU5uWUwzUXVOUXJZRGVza2hHdDF3VE5uT09KM0stcmFxWHhpbE5jOElXcUI2WjZOcndSUl9WdHVxMWF6YllFZF9JYlZyVUVjRjJXYWVwQlJvTWJYRFdJT2l4N0s3bV9lWTF0S2JEakJhWjJrc0QwMnpaWXVyanc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/israel-angriffe-libanon-sueden
- [9] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/16/uss-ford-returns-home-after-11-month-deployment-supporting-iran-war-and-maduros-capture
- [10] https://sol.iol.pt/opiniao/noticias/marco-serronha-a-guerra-do-golfo-de-2026-algumas-observacoes-estrategicas-e-geopoliticas-tempos-de-preocupacao-e-algumas-muitas-ilusoes-parte-1/20260516/6a0760770cf2d0ed34b846a1
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260516-mort-chef-branche-arm%C3%A9e-hamas-tu%C3%A9-par-frappe-isra%C3%A9lienne-ezzedine-al-haddad
- [12] https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-war-vote-congress-house-of-representatives-senate-usa-politics-news/a816e23a-d2e8-479d-8bf0-a4076caf9588
- [13] https://www.ertnews.gr/eidiseis/diethni/live-to-iran-tha-perasei-poly-dyskola-an-den-yparksei-symfonia-proeidopoiei-o-tramp
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2132w81jqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/755676/sad-nisu-produzile-uredbu-o-izuzecu-za-kupovinu-ruske-nafte
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/16/6a086573e4d4d885558b4580.html
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/k-biz/news
- [18] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260515000200880
- [19] https://www.la-croix.com/international/sommet-a-pekin-donald-trump-met-en-garde-taiwan-contre-toute-proclamation-d-independance-20260515
- [20] https://www.latribune.fr/article/transports/1686023441399214/liran-fait-etat-de-discussions-avec-des-pays-europeens-pour-franchir-le-detroit-dormuz
- [21] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/taiwan/4223757-20260516-chine-taiwan-affirme-etre-nation-independante-subordonnee-malgre-critiques-trump?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/16/taiwan-says-it-is-an-independent-nation-after-trump-arms-sale-remarks?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-apr%C3%A8s-la-mise-en-garde-de-trump-ta%C3%AFwan-rappelle-washington-%C3%A0-son-engagement-sur-les-ventes-d-armes
- [24] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-le-chef-de-la-branche-arm%C3%A9e-du-hamas-tu%C3%A9-%C3%A0-gaza
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/in-response-to-trump-taiwan-says-it-is-sovereign-and-independent?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE82V2RmaV9VT005Qk15ZWVIZ25yVmRHUXVFWS0weUVoSHZJc2pfQjZwT1N0R283VzU2SjZKY2pvNExRVmNxT3R3ZWtXcGxzMW1MQ2FtbFczdEQ4UWQyQnRKaXB6a25RWTR2M3hTaV94Y1Y?oc=5
- [27] https://www.la-croix.com/international/direct-guerre-iran-israel-usa-jour-78-moyen-orient-bilan-resume-aujourdhui-20260516
- [28] https://sol.iol.pt/internacional/noticias/medio-oriente-estreito-de-ormuz-sob-tensao-enquanto-paises-europeus-tentam-negociar-com-o-irao/20260516/6a08a0bc0cf27f6588a6a9d7
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
进展要点
- 美元：避险需求支撑，但美联储政策预期仍是变量。
- 黄金：中东与俄乌风险叠加，金价维持高位。
- 原油：霍尔木兹海峡危机与伊朗供应风险，油价易涨难跌。
- 美股：地缘政治风险压制风险偏好，短期承压。
- 新兴市场货币：亚洲新兴货币或因台湾风险承压。
- 欧股：俄乌局势与德国经济放缓预期利空。
关联路径
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260516083028hzn
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-16/10622124.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-haddad-hamas.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5HRjZxVTlZdTJNaGpKMWtMREpUeUtlWmVyYmQ4d0pEREdJN3pOdjdMZmJoT29SdWc2ZmowekRlVDlmaGpfRWlHZFdkc1hkX3BjYXBnelZn?oc=5
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260515-trump-xi-carry-on-westminster-the-french-pivot
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-triggered-challenges-across-the-world-uk-statement-at-the-un-economic-and-social-council
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640055-xi-trump-results-summit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-made-no-commitment-141341009.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/5/15/is-the-us-dialling-down-its-support-for-taiwan?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/death-toll-in-attack-on-kyiv-apartment-building-rises-may-15-2026/article70984671.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-iran-war-set-to-halve-growth-in-second-quarter/live-77168830?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515009551315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/will-make-decision-on-lifting-sanctions-on-chinese-firms-buying-iran-oil-trump/article70984451.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/xi-to-visit-us-on-september-24-at-trumps-invitation-china-says/articleshow/131121278.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605160830433MA
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBzRmtDckNTcWFyTER5RmVXWUd4TFdXLVBLLU00NnYyZFByNTgwcGVCcjFfS2ZSRDBOR2tpeFBpM2ljaUlTdGtNNnMzRE4xSHFzdjBrbGgtTDZKTzFuOWRfaEpkYnkzdXRwZjFKRy1ZMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNTGNXUWxwbG5FZ0kzQkdWTE9mQlNIaG1EckxUOVFfeVhkbkhXR09HdFFDNU9FTlNtT194emVtWUhQWTB4MVJMQ1RGcXRVTFRKRFNZZmtJTjFlQnBQZnFUR3VPZmhqdTRyanJQYnRweDYwUk1laHVCbXRnUjl0UUlqbmM5UzEtYkpwWTlJZFk5Y0ExQS15V0ZzUUdaMXZsYlBnc3Jrbkx5bEVYTWFzSVp2bWtnOVZZQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260515-chine-apr%C3%A8s-rencontre-avec-xi-trump-met-en-garde-ta%C3%AFwan-contre-toute-proclamation-ind%C3%A9pendance
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/zelenskyy-vows-response-after-russian-strike-kills-24-in-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/russia-pounds-kyiv-as-its-war-machine-grinds-to-a-near-standstill?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/asia/trump-china-arms-sales.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/europe/trump-xi-china-summit.html
2026-05-15
2026-05-15
进展要点
- 美元指数受避险支撑走强，关注美联储政策信号。
- 日元跌破干预后低点，若继续贬值可能触发新干预。
- 油价因伊朗对华放行而回落，但地缘风险溢价仍高，布伦特关注 75-80 美元区间。
- 黄金维持高位，避险需求与美元走强相互制约。
- 美股受贸易谈判失望及地缘风险压制，科技股遭遇出口管制担忧。
- 国债收益率因美联储换帅与通胀预期胶着。
关联路径
伊朗霍尔木兹封锁风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难 / 避险
特习峰会无贸易协议 / 风险情绪下行 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场承压
台湾冲突警告 / 地缘溢价 / 半导体供应链中断风险 / 科技股抛售
美联储换帅 / 货币政策路径不确定性 / 利率波动 / 套利交易平仓
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/15/iran-war-live-trumps-visit-to-china-shadowed-by-conflict-with-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-permits-30-vessels-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-overnight-lebanon-strikes-israel-top-developments/articleshow/131105399.cms
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515000800315
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260514-kevin-warsh-confirm%C3%A9-%C3%A0-la-t%C3%AAte-de-la-fed
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypj01189lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-xi-promises-not-to-give-iran-arms-trump-says
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPVXJSWmJiMV9CLUM2SURhbHFRVm1DeVE4NjBCY0E5azNhSDNSZXh6RnJORFVNbWpSOUdhdlhVSGNqM0s4a3F6SGFWWkR2aDZRd0ozTXBYYzZYODhVWnNyRGo0c09YTE81OVpUNHQ4cHFNNUFSTkV1ZmJlaGh2MnE3TzZwWlFvX3A1dndjVWNCMEd2YU9lSmV4eTlsSDFIYTcwUm8xOVl2VE9zRTNNTE02RkVzTmlmUlM3bVNQQUlubGFaa0RJc2c?oc=5
- [8] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-the-multinational-military-mission-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-12-may-2026
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/iran-strait-hormuz-china-ships.html
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/as--china-trump-000017487.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260514-trump-xi-d-%C3%A9gal-%C3%A0-%C3%A9gal
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/during-trumps-china-visit-anthropic-just-reminded-america-why-it-should-not-sell-top-end-nvidia-chips-to-china-since-most-/articleshow/131102724.cms
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-tests-post-intervention-low-as-iran-war-us-rate-uncertainty-lift-dollar
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/5/14/aje-onl-chn_trumpvisit2026_av_v2-140526?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-xi-offered-help-to-open-hormuz-vowed-not-to-arm-iran
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPOEZTX2ZkbVUwMGszck1IeUFkSE9VMmh3RXBoRzdjeG9HSTYwdGZidWYyQVlYTDJsTWdXd0xfLTNSdFVOekdwZW5ZZmdBWmlRWkJINTM5MjdUZ19SOGhMSUxHWVRESC1taUVqWDFhZlBnbk1SN0J6aF9UbEJydVVTM3R3bFplS1Nvc0sxMlBvMjQ?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/14/israels-ben-gvir-storms-al-aqsa-during-jerusalem-day-march?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-says-xi-vowed-not-to-arm-iran-offered-help-to-open-hormuz/articleshow/131098611.cms
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPZ3F4RDFfMWRrb1RYQUZiNjRhSk9DZXc3MkFKSjRlck9XamJDYnZFREtrLWdtd21ReW9sckNvWThielVnYnAwbG5HUDlIRDNVRnJWT09zTHg2WDVLQTJxekowMWFSdEhvblluMHdub05CUzkzQnBROTZkZDMxVV9raHgzMWNqRjFCbEhiSC1zSDdkb0paN1paZTV0OFfSAaIBQVVfeXFMUFZ1ZEpKM19xclBhQjVTSmlJVlAyUG14c1ZrY3dVOXlFWWtRYkdxX3BGQlhsUjI0N1pDZUE1QnRGeE43WUthQWkzdExSNkVUakd1dUJ6dndMSGdVV2V3LTBRckx3WERFSHVmbVBGNF90dGE0WWVhU2FrTjdKX0M2S2Q1ZTE0UEVneklPWWZjbUU0eEFvdGNjLTcyZ0NBeWczZzVB?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/china-us-sanctions-ai-cybersecurity.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-uae-iran-attacks.html
2026-05-14
2026-05-14
进展要点
- 美元：受美联储鹰派预期及避险支撑，短线偏强。
- 美债收益率：通胀回升及政策不确定性或推动收益率上行。
- 黄金：面临加息预期压制与避险需求拉扯，印度关税增加下行压力。
- 原油：中东冲突持续提供支撑，关注霍尔木兹海峡局势。
- 美股：峰会结果及美联储政策预期是主要驱动，短线震荡。
- 人民币：峰会利好预期暂缓贬值压力，但若谈判无果则承压。
关联路径
美联储主席变更 / 政策不确定性 / 美元 / 美债波动 / 全球资产重定价
中美峰会结果 / 贸易前景 / 风险偏好 / 股市 / 商品
中东冲突升级 / 石油供给风险 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策约束
印度提高黄金关税 / 全球实物黄金需求下降 / 金价承压
来源
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260513-senate-confirms-trump-pick-kevin-warsh-as-federal-reserve-chair
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-ally-kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-next-us-federal-reserve-chair-after-tight-senate-vote/articleshow/131076625.cms
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-confirmed.html
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-presidents-set-to-kick-off-crucial-meeting
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260514000900315
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639955-pentagon-revises-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2gFBVV95cUxPWkJfX2lCWUg1YjR3aktOUUU4ajlIa0xDbGxDMWlJbHh0ZzZjLW9RZUJMcXdNRFlTbEUxZVVWWjNHRHJxNkNFVEhPQmFTeFI3S2QzN3BGdTlPYWkwWW1ZWURuRjg5d2RQTEx0aDY5RG05OGdqTXNqV3ZEZkY1eklEbHJlb2pYTUkxdXp1aDdHQTNub2RBejU1UzF3SUhGSWlqUWR3TkEtWjZaM25vbVd2OWREM0NTeXh3OWlDZ291bWloSWpFN2ExTnRGZWxHZVczV2lMN2pLZW9sQQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8p71p4nezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-holds-decline-jump-us-060857543.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/netanyahu-visited-uae-in-secret-during-us-israel-war-on-iran-office-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-hikes-duty-on-gold-silver-from-6-to-15-in-bid-to-lower-demand/articleshow/131079515.cms
- [12] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260513-%C3%A9tats-unis-s%C3%A9nat-valide-nomination-kevin-warsh-t%C3%AAte-fed-reserve-federale-trump
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/asia/xi-trump-china-us-taiwan-iran.html
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/trade-tech-and-rare-earths-to-dominate-trump-s-china-trip
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/briefing/trump-china-meeting-fed-chair.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/639954-netanyahu-secret-uae-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/639942-saudi-covert-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/13/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-new-us-federal-reserve-chair-amid-controversy?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPZHBka0lybnhwRXkzY1pwOWpFSnN5Njd0RnFpNlg0ZlRYN1lqY3FFZ1dFOXJQUTBKczZITllGdU1TU01iMGNIWnNfYXVBeFVNZnVlaE02Wkd6T2lFTUo2VXBzeDBZVVAxNVZKUC1OZG9LUFVaQmMyR1dhaTMxYi1KZ0owc3JpNkhXYkUyY2xQaUcyNmI5YlU4U3FCVU9aNFk5SzJueFAwd3VNU0xOTmtXWHlNNTdxUW0wMGFtRnBaMmRTc0haakpTd25B?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/trump-xi-summit-chinas-help-in-iran-may-require-us-concessions?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-xi-set-to-talk-trade-after-30-drop-during-tariff-war
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPLXI4dThVYmpObHQwS1B6bk9vNmFEX0dxbldUbWNqYUhxSUJzaTV5LTFvcFJGR1JuUm13dWJUZE0tZHVZOXY4VkMzUjZCNFA4OWx2UERXeldBNXNoWUktWUFLOUdpMzhja3JOZ0hhbVoyTzB0ZmZMQlV3MXBUc1UyUWJSdXN2UlNmRDZDMQ?oc=5
2026-05-13
2026-05-13
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特原油接近110美元，霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续，上行风险仍大
- 美元：通胀与避险需求支撑美元，但峰会成果若超预期可能引发回调
- 黄金：避险情绪主导，金价持续走高，关注是否突破前高
- 美债：收益率因通胀预期上行，但避险买盘限制涨幅，关注10年期关键水平
- 全球股市：避险下亚太市场承压，关注中美峰会能否提振情绪
- 日元：避险属性显现，日元对美元走强
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 通胀上升 / 央行收紧预期 / 风险资产下跌
美伊停火破裂 / 军事升级 / 油价飙升 / 全球衰退担忧 / 避险资产流入
中美峰会结果 / 贸易政策预期 / 风险情绪波动 / 美元 / 新兴市场货币双向波动
俄罗斯核威慑 / 欧洲安全紧张 / 资金流向避险资产 / 黄金 / 美债受益
来源
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.iris-france.org/les-chaines-dapprovisionnement-petrolieres-asiatiques-perturbees-par-le-blocus-du-detroit-dormuz-perspectives-pour-linde-le-japon-et-la-coree-du-sud
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c202pgxx89lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-faces-rising-costs-with-iran-war-driving-energy-prices-inflation-higher?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260513/c04811ca4c6a4d49abe7cdffeca2c363/c.html
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/639918-turning-point-in-post-cold-war-order/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-berufungsgericht-laesst-donald-trumps-zehn-prozent-zoll-vorerst-bestehen-a-0e854705-6afa-4fbb-9f55-dfb8f923ef7f
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260512-iran-us-peace-plan-middle-east-truce-failure
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/briefing/iran-war-costs-inflation.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOVHIyMlF1Rk1fUk9rY3JiNVh0LUVBUlhlX0dtQk5OSjUwcVFPVXJUbWdSRkpwa25iZ1lRSVcxbFNraGM2RWFsdXJJVEhHeTBPU21WckJFOFdSWHVMZ21pdS1Sc1NiWHZ5TXExWnN2Vy16eUVwcUNsdnZpWUtveUg4eVBrMnNBcjg3QU5sbHY1b2tza21pQkg0?oc=5
- [10] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/iran-kharg-island-oil-shipments-174555890.html
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-china-visit-xi-jinping-meeting-us-china-trade-negotiations/article70971552.ece
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260512011352315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-cpi-climbs-38-in-april-as-oil-prices-and-energy-costs-fuel-inflation/article70971393.ece
- [14] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79724
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/7dd5a996fb1a4b938d278e287586e4c7/c.html
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/aa49121bccfb49a08819de9df26fb8d6/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/13/iran-war-live-trump-travels-to-china-as-conflict-with-tehran-looms-large?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-court-pauses-decision-blocking-trumps-10-percent-global-tariff?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260512-iran-tensions-commerciales-ta%C3%AFwan-donald-trump-chine-pour-visite-majeure
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260512-japanese-crisp-bags-turn-black-and-white-due-to-iran-war
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/russland-testet-sarmat-interkontinentalrakete-laut-wladimir-putin-erfolgreich-a-129038fc-f885-400f-a2c4-d08eb689345d
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/trump-xi-summit.html
- [23] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-war-cost-hegseth-congress.html
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/639893-us-iran-could-renew-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObTF3M0FrTkx0dDl4bjA2QzFvZUNQV2JXdWVBNWduSG1nTmVMR2pPdE9wN2F3WnVWaTJtZzd4Nzg1ODN3RmZPSzhjaktQalhUY0l1S2tNSVdlVk5NRzh3M0pvT3Rjbnk3V0h1ZTFYbTdZaHkzakUzVHZfNFkyQWxmTnNSSjZLOHVSYmpCdXRMWGs2eFdTZE5PMmpWX0VsTDN4M0N2ZHZoUkxWd0dPOHc?oc=5
2026-05-12
2026-05-12
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特突破104美元，WTI逼近100，供应冲击驱动上行
- 黄金：避险需求推升金价，关注中美会晤风险事件
- 美元：避险买盘支撑美元指数，但关税不确定性抑制涨幅
- 美股：能源板块受益，但消费和科技承压，整体风险偏好下行
- 美债：收益率曲线平坦化，长期通胀预期上升
- 新兴市场：能源进口国货币承压，中国股市受贸易谈判预期支撑
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应骤降 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
中美会晤结果 / 贸易政策走向 / 企业信心与汇率波动
美伊停火破裂 / 中东全面战争 / 避险资金涌入黄金 / 美元
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国能源安全风险 / 人民币贬值压力
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044249qt7
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260511/2f185f2c68764459ad6402eda8c3e354/c.html
- [3] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/12/6a01a4fefdddff9f478b4577.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-ceasefire-on-life-support/live-77126070?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gas-prices-iran-war-midwest-ohio-trump-b2974499.html
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/usa-china-iran-sanktionen-scott-bessent
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/iran-responds-to-us-peace-proposal-to-end-the-war-state-media-says-164241820.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-100.html
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429549
- [10] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-gov-t-asks-court-to-keep-trump-s-10-global-tariffs-in-place-during-appeal/3934366
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260511-xi-jinping-faiseur-de-paix-en-iran
- [12] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-11/trump-el-alto-el-fuego-con-iran-esta-agonizando.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV3Zja29WajNJeTJvT3FaSlZ6ZDZwcXkwakZMZTRHTVg3dEI4WU82UHhOWTkxNzAzc2puQ0dJZEl5XzJfUXdRWlFlai1vanEwUFYzQkdPRmNlUnZXLXBPRFFKUmJRM3dJMVJaZjl4RWk1VzQ1dlRDSXVyOS13ZUxXSUhwZWpaejQzTDlBbGgyOU1uTGd3UlFpMDN3?oc=5
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-congress-iran-petrol-prices-b1281950.html
- [15] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/11/43001
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/11/trump-says-he-will-discuss-arms-sales-to-taiwan-in-meeting-with-chinas-xi?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-sanctions-12-firms-individuals-over-alleged-role-in-iranian-oil-trade/3934363
- [18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-to-travel-to-china-with-17-major-ceos-including-musk-and-cook-white-house/3934290
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-reveals-location-nuclear-armed-171703119.html
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044730SbY
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512042140mfe
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxOdkoyb2dvdHlJdmpIaDc3d0N2U1kxandSSmxCN3c5eWs0UHk1Q3F4YVpLNDhLR1ZJb2s1UG1mS1BFcXJWQmZBSU5WRFRKMlV0ek1qUGt2MDlnOGRrX0lwdW94UjEycHFyMGs3VlVCVElpdHlLU3FWSmh5V09mQkhLZVRtMktEejdSdzk4c0I2MTcyREpCcnJNOXVudUZDREw0TUJmUjFBbE1EYnFMYTVhMTBrOEJKT3ZtOFlxU1lmME5vTUFGVjcwZldZM3BSMDEyNjNpRER1QlFTVDlubUtVSmNxUXhjREFoTUJxWmhhdFE1YzBGRV9zdHY2bEdpZnktVXoyeGxWN2xKSjQwb3hsZDFWMmlwYXVwUjZN?oc=5
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260511-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-exige-la-fin-de-la-guerre-et-le-d%C3%A9gel-des-avoirs-une-r%C3%A9ponse-inacceptable-pour-trump
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE1CR1Nfc2JxRHM4N0NjWVViWXh2czVFblA1akE3dFhjUmctQVlBLUpwSW1KUF9ETUpJV2tlRW4wcDM3RW1VYURWQ2pKWQ?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/11/trump-says-ceasefire-is-on-life-support-after-rejecting-irans-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-new-york-israel-consumers-wall-street-b2974516.html
- [27] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/11/6a02182721efa03c0b8b4577.html
2026-05-11
2026-05-11
进展要点
- 原油：美伊封锁及袭击事件推动布伦特油价上冲110美元上方，短期风险溢价难消
- 黄金：避险买盘涌入，金价突破3200美元关口，关注后续央行购金动态
- 美元：风险情绪支撑美元指数走强，但国债收益率走升或形成矛盾
- 美国国债：增发预期推高长期收益率，10年期收益率逼近5%心理位
- 美股：地缘风险与利率上行双重压制，标普500承压下行，能源股逆势反弹
- 外汇：日元、瑞郎等融资货币受避险买盘提振，新兴市场货币承压
关联路径
美军封锁伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡梗阻 / 石油供应中断担忧 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期升温
特朗普拒绝伊朗停火 / 避险情绪高涨 / 资金涌入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产抛售
美国增发国债 / 债券供给冲击 / 收益率上行 / 科技股估值承压 / 股市下跌
伊朗战争 / 英国经济衰退信号 / 全球增长担忧 / 风险偏好恶化
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/3960d5d503f7403dae5c143aeff01f80/c.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201355
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618814.shtml
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-government-must-issue-more-223745145.html
- [5] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/10/nx-s1-5817605/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-proposal
- [6] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/britain-job-losses-iran-war-economy-crisis-b2973830.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-05/11/iran-antwortet-auf-us-vorschlag-trump-voellig-inakzeptabel
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/639845-trump-iran-totally-unacceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429515
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/trump-to-discuss-iran-with-xi-jinping-during-china-visit-officials?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-rejects-proposal-to-end-conflict/live-77102104?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051808Mzs
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/fiscal-policy-response-to-iran-war-risks-worsening-inflation-bis-chief
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPS2F2bWQ1UlBLTExBNjRzTEZLN1Jtak40T2hSUmJaaHd0dG9BbEhwNnJLbGptN05Sem5SLVBvbktvZTFfYWotQjZ0WXl3MXcwOU5pZXI2TFZyYXQwdVBaWktHbWt4MktOQ3ZWblc3blItcFlPM1ZNaGdDbk1NT0J2V1huSFhvd3JrTjBqYzRmRFpOYmRlc0RhcnRXMlhmUdIBowFBVV95cUxNbUxZRDk5d2JGaHZwbFlBdTVCWWs2TDcyM3h6b0dKb1hYNTlUUk1QME5sNjl1VFpBbDNUUzdZXzdwVlFJVmZoYjRyaVlvaktVcUFRZTdsQmc3LXFaZXk1MUVPNFBzMGNsWE1XOHdnb2MyWkpHNnRSRnNoTlU0b25IS1Q5Y3EtSWNCZl9sZ2dWSzcxaHJLWTd1NlIyNzFMSlJXa29v?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/war-with-iran-not-over-says-israeli-prime-minister/3933285
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/c636cfac40044e89be902f2b154cf33a/c.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/b44050ab14924c3fa89df06b58ee15c0/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618801.shtml
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/us-awaits-iranian-response-proposal-125003898.html
- [20] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/donald-trump-usa-iran-krieg-antwort-frieden-verhandlungen
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/639844-trump-vows-iran-enriched-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260511051652Xbq
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051343oue
2026-05-10
2026-05-10
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特若突破85美元则可能测试90美元，关注霍尔木兹海峡实际封锁
- 黄金：避险需求支撑，若美伊全面开战可能冲上2400美元
- 美元：避险买盘推动美元指数走强，但关税利好欧元
- 美股：能源板块受益，但整体风险偏好受压制
- 美债：短期避险买盘压低收益率，关注长期通胀预期
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油 / 避险资产 / 全球股市
美国制裁中国公司 / 中美关系紧张 / 贸易协议风险 / 风险偏好
俄乌停火希望 / 风险偏好短暂回升 / 若落空则避险
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东不稳定 / 石油风险溢价
来源
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/g-s1-121061/iran-war-updates
- [2] https://www.tempo.co/internasional/selat-hormuz-memanas-as-iran-saling-serang-lagi-2134463
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/10/iran-war-live-irgc-warns-us-against-attacks-on-ships-israel-bombs-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/u-s-iran-exchange-strikes-as-trump-says-ceasefire-holds-263035973659
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/putin-zaiavyv-shcho-viina-rf-proty-ukrainy-dobihaie-kintsia
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPOFBRV2l2TGJ6d1FsY2doampXNEJyODZFZmp6VDBVNWVYUHdoRDhUMC0ydDBuaU9oZGpITWFUNjZ1TVlUNWQybV85TDlxNXl4aVlwZVViZmdRVV9wNzB2NkhPUUdpdjMxTnVXT01KWmRHZFJtNkY3d2dTMl8zdWdXb0M0X2l2c1R4VDdNeFB3?oc=5
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-he-thinks-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end/a-77106772?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-assured-netanyahu-of-no-compromise-on-iran-uranium-issue-israeli-media/3932758
- [9] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/09/state-escalates-trade-row-with-china-over-iran-war-ahead-of-trump-xi-summit-00913421?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [10] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79718
- [11] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260508000500880
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/putin-says-ukraine-war-likely-to-end-soon-despite-ukrainian-battlefield-gains-13542111
- [13] https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica-estera/ucraina-putin-guerra-volge-termine-pronti-dialogo-ue-2662158.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/wladimir-putin-krieg-ukraine-pressekonferenz-ende-wolodymyr-selenskyj
- [15] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/09/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-assure-que-le-conflit-touche-a-sa-fin-kiev-et-moscou-s-accusent-de-violer-le-cessez-le-feu_6684995_3210.html
- [16] https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/heftige-iran-drohung-hormus-schliessung-fuer-immer-69ff7fcbcd4a28c4700221b3
- [17] https://geopoliticalfutures.com/what-the-uaes-opec-exit-means-for-the-global-energy-market
- [18] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-forces-strike-iran-oil-tankers-while-waiting-tehran-peace-proposal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQVThGa0pUTkZBT2YzS3I2U29RT1MwNGdCNmdUSXdLY19ObVVSVVNkNmxWZ1k2RjNzQ09PYkhwVEl6dmlmQlpxcTVMX21WYktZdHNNUE04TTBTOUMzZjZWRHJkcC1pVUEtR0tEaUVaODVTc0JTMGV0MlVZSl9YSjF6NGFBLUFMYk5Udm5IUDdLbEE4M3pkeW1aRldLT25Xei1MTmZRWkl6TG1SQjJKVzg4YzB3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-and-iran-exchange-fire-as-trump-says-ceasefire-still-holds-263025733567
- [21] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5814955/rep-adam-smith-d-wash-on-the-latest-round-of-strikes-between-the-u-s-and-iran
- [22] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5815016/u-s-and-iran-trade-fire-amid-month-old-ceasefire
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/9/for-the-first-time-putin-says-hes-open-to-meeting-zelensky-outside-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-09
2026-05-09
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特或突破90美元，霍尔木兹封锁持续则上看100
- 黄金：避险支撑但俄乌停火可能带来回调，区间2350-2400美元
- 美元指数：就业超预期+避险需求，DXY短期偏强
- 美股：中东冲突压制风险偏好，但俄乌停火提供短暂反弹窗口
- 美债收益率：受通胀预期上升推动，短端上行
- 航运股：马士基成本增加拖累利润，但运费上涨可能利好部分船运公司
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 全球通胀 / 央行政策收紧预期
俄乌停火 / 避险情绪缓和 / 风险资产短暂反弹
美国就业超预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场压力
美德关系恶化 / 北约不确定性 / 欧洲避险资金流入美元 / 黄金
来源
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260509/us-fires-on-2-more-iranian-tankers-as-tensions-rise-in-strait-of-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/8/pentagon-releases-video-of-strikes-on-iranian-oil-tankers?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617849.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQVWVDc01rQW5teU9vRkZ6eGY5TkkwT2tWekM0VVBrRjFHMVZjNGhDRUI3ZEhqdy1MamR2QVhWODlMTHNuQUhVbkViWUpIdmcySEJlcU9WdVpvU1VJSmRabXBhckhnUHJyb29jMXZHTkRoUF9mUjJXZVdMMFpFM0k2bmRENGc5ZzNFNTN1SGhlVFdQYjFvdldIQkk5S1VnTGlzQUhrMV9abw?oc=5
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ceo-maersk-ships-14-everything-170854545.html
- [7] https://news.sky.com/story/three-day-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-announced-13541685
- [8] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8481206/trump-umumkan-rusia-dan-ukraina-sepakat-gencatan-senjata-3-hari
- [9] https://metro.co.uk/2026/05/08/donald-trump-announces-three-day-ceasefire-russia-ukraine-28292148
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/639696-trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4121333-trump-says-threeday-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-agreed.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-announces-3-day-ceasefire-between-ukraine-and-russia/live-77091251?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/ukraine-krieg/artikel/ukraine-krieg-trump-verkuendet-waffenruhe-so-lange-ist-geplant-48342649
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86dp85g59xo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/9/iran-war-live-tehrans-reply-to-us-deal-expected-amid-clashes-in-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617843.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617837.shtml
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/la-guerra-se-asoma-a-un-nuevo-vencimiento-pendiente-del-acuerdo-entre-estados-unidos-e-iran.html
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-08/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE0zQmxqdHQ0cTdBOHJtcEx1ajdXR0RhRkthS0tvOS0wM2IwMzUtdk1vUVB4VFBabXNySUdaX19OaV8zME56SmhOQ1BIZTZad0pfdTJBSWlPVDlzeUU2RHpvS24tLWN5emhXWE1ReFItUDI?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/libyas-largest-oil-refinery-halts-operations-during-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/jobs-report-set-show-hiring-090728306.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/639659-trump-punish-germany-appeasement/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-08
2026-05-08
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特原油跳升，若霍尔木兹持续中断，可能突破120美元。
- 黄金：避险买盘推动金价上涨，突破前高概率大。
- 美元：避险资金流入支撑美元，但贸易关税裁决可能限制涨幅。
- 美股：标普500承压，能源板块暴涨，科技股受贸易不确定性拖累。
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难
关税违法 / 贸易不确定性下降 / 企业信心恢复 / 经济衰退预期缓解
军事冲突 / 避险情绪 / 黄金 / 美元走强 / 风险资产抛售
欧洲航母部署 / 多国介入风险 / 地缘联动 / 资产波动率上升
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-usa-und-iran-beschiessen-sich-in-strasse-von-hormus-a-b0cb0e94-a59e-49b0-b574-af358c0ab39d
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617187.shtml
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508065335EuD
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBwQnR2X3ZtNDFrbkQwTTRjcnJtVW8zc2pMTXJxLTFZUDBDOTRGaXhueVVLekZaSVdpNGl3MkpqT29EekY2ejFXSU9PdkpNR1ZNamdBakI4ZUZob253YlIwanVpUndGQ1lETktXLVZtWV8tc1Q2VnVR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-it-struck-targets-in-iran-after-attack-on-warships/live-77088159?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260507-middle-east-war-live-us-and-iran-accuse-each-other-of-ceasefire-violations-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5559083/selat-hormuz-memanas-iran-as-saling-serang-lagi
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/well-knock-them-out-harder-trump-warns-iran-of-harsher-military-action-after-3-us-ships-came-under-fire-in-hormuz/articleshow/130933318.cms
- [9] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201309
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-trade-fire-west-asia-war-strait-of-hormuz/article70952891.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/briefing/trade-court-trump-tariffs.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-says-targeted-iranian-military-214422794.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/7/videos-show-interceptions-over-the-skies-of-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617182.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508090836LPE
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508091222lYj
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617209.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9saEpROVFUXzB4QzBtT1Z2ZWlmODQydTdKdG9aRXFPb1BjQWV0LTFNdjAyZGlrTlVMX3Z4NmZTa2VGX0x1WlRrLWZyNUtRUlkwMTdVenNBTFcxR3I1MS1sYmxHRHFKMWtveVFXVUU5bEpOclhhcUl3OFRXVlJ2b1U?oc=5
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/economy/trump-global-tariff-ruled-illegal.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE95RHFJYjM2ZkFnRXRTMlVqSmFob0NKdld0Z0ZwMWVhU0FZYmN2VVZtNmZiaEJCTjAxRTg3X2pSMEJqT1VwTWhjam93eGFEdXktM1VJWA?oc=5
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20260507-strait-of-hormuz-what-role-for-france
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/big-setback-for-trump-us-court-rules-10-global-tariffs-unlawful/articleshow/130930650.cms
2026-05-07
2026-05-07
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特101.27美元/桶，WTI 95.08美元/桶，单日暴跌超7%，波动率极高。
- 黄金：避险需求受俄乌及中东事件支撑，但美伊协议预期限制涨幅。
- 美元：风险情绪摇摆，美元指数短期偏强，关注美联储表态。
- 美股：地缘风险压制风险偏好，但油价下跌利好消费和航空板块。
关联路径
美伊协议进展 / 油价风险溢价下降 / 全球通胀预期缓和 / 股债双升
俄乌胜利日升级 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强 / 新兴市场资金外流
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东风险溢价上升 / 油价反弹 / 全球增长担忧
油轮袭击事件 / 航运保险成本上升 / 贸易中断风险增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639549-us-iran-tanker-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507090601M8I
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201283
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260506-russia-warns-foreign-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-of-strike
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-fires-on-iranian-oil-tanker-as-trump-pressures-tehran-for-deal-to-end-war/article70948554.ece
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42967
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-07/10616597.shtml
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/angriffskrieg-in-der-ukraine-russland-dringt-auf-evakuierung-auslaendischer-botschaften-in-kyjiw-a-ab69353b-9c0f-4df2-9d63-32d768005654
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYy05cU1rcVk3aXlCRFNmNTJ3WEhSalR4dkk5MC1YNl9WWG1XaG9QVWNLQUhoZGRvaDA3cmRNSkdtZDI5dkI3aERJbmRBd01FWFlsOFBCYTQ4OEQxM3RrNU1HNXhqZ1dWZkQxZkxXTng2N3ZWdk1NaXJsNVpwMEtqb1NySUVXbjk5ZDZLS1ptdk1fVGdqMVdCckNOdW43Rnc?oc=5
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/russia-tells-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-moscow-launches-mass-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/could-ceasefire-ceased-iran-back-212505667.html
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260506014152315
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/business/french-ship-hormuz-central-command.html
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/iran-hit-more-us-defence-assets-than-reported-satellite-images-show/articleshow/130869021.cms
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/israel-strikes-beirut-for-first-time-since-lebanon-ceasefire/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082751XF8
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082829agH
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42966
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/trump-says-had-very-good-talks-with-iran-as-tehran-reviews-us-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/6/israel-bombs-beiruts-southern-suburbs-2?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-trump-sieht-einigung-nahe-iran-prueft-moegliches-abkommen-a-19ef1840-45d3-432c-9c43-33fb235eb608
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-bombardiert-erstmals-seit-waffenruhe-beiruter-vorort-a-bf8e6513-5e0b-4e43-8d07-5167be697fef
2026-05-06
2026-05-06
进展要点
- 布伦特原油：5月5日收盘109.87美元/桶（-1.23美元）
- WTI原油：5月5日收盘102.27美元/桶（-1.18美元）
- 标普500：涨0.81%，纳斯达克涨1.03% 因暂停行动提振
- 黄金：受避险支撑但涨幅有限，实际利率上行压制
- 美元指数：受避险需求小幅走高
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应短缺预期 / 通胀风险 / 央行加息预期
特朗普暂停行动 / 短期风险偏好回升 / 股市反弹、油价回调
伊朗新规 / 实际通行受阻 / 石油实物短缺 / 油价上行
美欧贸易摩擦 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strait-hormuz-showdown-begins-u-132901358.html
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639461-global-oil-shortages-chevron/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/trump-announces-pause-on-us-operation-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260505-en-direct-donald-trump-suspendre-operation-americaine-pour-escorter-bateaux-detroit-ormuz-moyen-orient-etats-unis-liban-golfe
- [5] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1063473/iran-perkenalkan-aturan-baru-untuk-transit-kapal-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-donald-trump-setzt-militaer-einsatz-fuer-sichere-hormus-durchfahrt-aus-a-09110b24-5de9-4643-9a3d-c701250ab14f
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506083448XBA
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-operation-epic-fury-is-over-rubio-says/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616011.shtml
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypekl71gdo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOZVNNNFNuaGY3ekVlTlJra3NuT3ItcGJycnBFSF9YSHpqSzFxR3YtYjVJQjRQbl8zSTNOOWRHRkVvQ1o0ZWQ1bjMyUkk5bXRIOF94RkNTYms2cjZsNEpIc010TzJKUHF6WXVmU0FtaUs1eERwUGxJZWNESVRiOWlORVc4UUdnR2VGb3dacFVHS2NhQWhjcjl4TWpiSU4xZVpId01HVXJoeUJiVWtnZjF3V1ljUG9GX19ib3hSVzZ2bW9lZw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/639502-trump-hormuz-freedom-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616009.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080836FnL
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080338M8a
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616006.shtml
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260505-rubio-says-us-military-has-completed-offensive-operations-in-iran
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506075816iRz
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506074057CUb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506080056tMp
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616004.shtml
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616001.shtml
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072847kWz
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR2026050607171320H
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072539XhY
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050606515869I
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506065121a7o
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506063848him
2026-05-05
2026-05-05
进展要点
- 布伦特原油收于114.44美元/桶，WTI 106.42美元/桶，上行风险偏强。
- 道指-1.13%，标普-0.41%，能源板块逆势上涨但空头压力蔓延。
- 黄金受避险买盘推升，美元指数走强至106附近。
- 欧元承压对欧关税威胁，EUR/USD跌破1.08。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 风险资产抛售
伊朗攻击阿联酋 / 地区安全恶化 / 避险买盘 / 美元 / 黄金上涨
特朗普对欧关税威胁 / 欧盟出口前景恶化 / 欧元贬值 / 欧洲股市下跌
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国进口受阻 / 全球石油市场收紧 / 油价上行
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-us-and-uae-report-iran-attacks-as-military-pushes-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605050807137ro
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/uae-reports-missile-and-drone-strikes-incoming-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNOF9BY1FLenNuX1FCU2VTTmk0SmxDN0FqVHRFa3Nua0t6R0VBOVJBYy1xdXhsUmtzNHhqZjVMdGhPYjJobndNOWR3bFhib3VrWnJlM1BnbUxtNnJqZjFFOHlXMDRJM3p0YUl4TENJcUgzWFZRcUNZQTlBQnJrUlBrMXhJVi1pOEQ1WGNTTGpKT005WmMzUW9FbTVBYUPSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0szZUswSjRJZ0h2dUNGbm1USmdPSEZIUGszMVpsbktkaHJaZ1RoTXI5ZnlqdXhWNEpRMXY5MkxtcHRkSDNHWG8yVDJXSFNROXV0YkFscWRPdUVxcHI1cmtWN1lYSnlJX1dNQlU2QVhrbHZienBtVnFPVmtocXE5M2VkcnNRTHZvZ2NBdVI0WnVROG9TZ3Zxcmk3dlRwVFhMWWd3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/04/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-affirme-avoir-tire-des-missiles-contre-des-navires-militaires-americains-deux-navires-marchands-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz-selon-l-armee-americaine_6684072_3210.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639450-iran-us-sink-boats-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/briefing/iran-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-met-gala.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615670.shtml
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-attackiert-vereinigte-arabische-emirate-donald-trump-meldet-versenkte-iranische-boote-a-5d2d79be-0aff-43ee-a854-66f73a0e8663
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/5/iran-war-live-washington-tehran-trade-threats-over-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-en-direct-accrochages-detroit-ormuz-operation-americaine-d%C3%A9bloquer-iran-pays-golfe-liban-etats-unis-israel-missiles-drones-conseil-securite-onu
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083539uN2
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083557sW4
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPd2plZWlfWWZRNHZINm9SUVZLZnNucE1mWERKX3FMSWVzeWNSMkg0WXRTdndGQUZsSHVJcW8tLWI3NWM5V1o5NGRsTWxLdDFNazU4T0xNcndKT09pVXZ3eEo5VDRQSEZ2TTVDMjNhMGE0Vld1cHMyWGZsYk93bzNwSmw4M2pQOXp5clhzRjNPWlM?oc=5
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-amirats-arabes-unis-nouveau-vises-par-iran-au-lancement-operation-americaine-detroit-ormuz-drones-attaque-pays-golfe
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615663.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615660.shtml
- [18] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/05/04/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-donald-trump-contre-l-industrie-automobile-europeenne-fragilisent-encore-l-accord-de-turnberry_6685398_3234.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/05/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-emirats-arabes-unis-disent-avoir-intercepte-15-missiles-iraniens-et-4-drones-dans-la-journee_6684072_3210.html
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/639438-us-destroy-iran-future-analyst/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/hormuz-tensions-push-ceasefire-to-the-brink-as-trump-threatens-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/us/politics/us-china-iranian-oil-sanctions.html
2026-05-04
2026-05-04
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特/WTI波动加剧，关注霍尔木兹实际通行量及俄油出口数据。
- 黄金：避险情绪支撑，关注1920美元/盎司上方阻力。
- 美元指数：短期偏强，欧元因北约裂痕承压。
- 美股：能源板块受益油价，但整体风险偏好受抑，关注VIX水平。
- 美债：避险买盘推动收益率下行，关注10年期收益率是否跌破3.8%。
- 航运：霍尔木兹通行受阻推高油轮运费，关注波罗的海油轮运价指数。
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧
北约分裂 / 欧洲安全风险 / 资本流入美元 / 黄金 / 美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 油价承压 / 缓解通胀 / 风险偏好改善
乌克兰袭击 / 俄油出口下降 / 全球重油供应偏紧
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504090940oLO
- [2] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504001500315
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-announces-project-freedom-to-help-stranded-ships-leave-strait-of-hormuz/article70936417.ece
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQSVJPVVBjX2Z5alZfTHlJaDBrN0d0aS1WeWVJWlkwQ19kNTRKQldNOVJNaDJzbmtIcjdBd25mOXIyVjdJR0lHeHJtN1htUmxVQXItNUFsTllPbm8teG1oeS01WkxPTGlGOHRPa202RU9tbThkN0tRN2NZQnU2SWNHZHgwQXkyTk5kSmFlVVBwVdIBlAFBVV95cUxPSmJUYzNHM3lybFJuV2NYYjl5NWhGbkdrLWZQTEx4VWtxYmN5SzR0MEVEOTBZcFVEeEItcDZqeTJLdVJFZXQ5eUdoeGdaaUYyR3pqRHRfbWU5cHlVU0lZaDdoNkllY1ZzelBKV2IwX3djLWZJSl93S1RkVzdUd3Bta240RzVDQzNaeUFtZjh4OUlNYWxq?oc=5
- [5] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Militaer-will-festsitzende-Schiffe-aus-Strasse-von-Hormus-geleiten-id30781595.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260503-en-direct-guerre-iran-marine-americaine-va-escorter-navires-bloques-detroit-ormuz-donald-trump-cessez-feu-liban-israel
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/politics/strait-hormuz-stranded-ships.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615312.shtml
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-to-guide-ships-safely-out-of-hormuz/live-77021634?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/03/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-annonce-que-la-marine-americaine-va-escorter-des-navires-bloques-a-travers-le-detroit-d-ormuz-a-partir-de-lundi_6684072_3210.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504062226PpA
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-trump-plant-einsatz-unter-codenamen-project-freedom-a-9c929e2e-ab18-434a-9f78-bc00c6194ee2
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/3/iran-lawmaker-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-return-to-pre%e2%80%91war-state?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukraine-hits-key-russian-oil-092405352.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/639394-nato-rift-widens-as-trump-eyes-troop-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://globalnews.ca/news/11827950/iran-war-trump-reviews-proposal
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260504090443Eyo
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504085951Lh9
- [19] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504000500320
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxObUh2emxTZXgta2JVZzZkUXVmNURoTGM3ejQ0aHBaMUk5WEE4dzJjOXR3UjdtQ0FCNmNtZFJ4NjhGdlFScGdWVjRfeUhpNS1JN3dBNW5PY25rMS1BQUVXVmx4b2NLSVFVU0hyYy0weVZYY1YyY2VVSHdIZGlhOV9CNGNyQm4?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/trump-says-us-will-help-free-up-ships-stuck-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQOGJzdEItUzB5NWhkTDhrZHFmcG5VVVNlOFJycUl5UUp0cVF4UXRNdjQ0R2FxWmE3aVRKZ1U4VVdvWFIzWl9xdlRGSzlZWjI2S1JjTXZaTlRwSWZDcjdGX0RiUkVFUzE3UF9BX2k3VFBhc3lfdW43aTRYUnRuaU9rcGF0RFNJOWVNYjUzS2dVbTdNQdIBlwFBVV95cUxPT1dHdGRoYzVMVjNEWENQb2s0QXZjZFNEeDUzQkhNVnJUeVdsaUxmX3c5aWF5eGt1RFJXMUhLRGFXa2xoMDJCbHRGU1NENnQzRUN4eFliWXZmZVliVFF4RVNMX2hfajE2M2tnOFpSMjVPbFh5c2Vxb1haM1kxMHFzNFk0ZHFIWEdCbk90Q0FIU2tSUG4tTGNj?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/investigators-say-trump-assassination-suspect-shot-officer-at-press-gala?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615308.shtml
2026-05-03
2026-05-03
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特/WTI持续走高，霍尔木兹封锁和科威特出口归零是核心驱动。
- 黄金：避险资金涌入，关注突破前高动力。
- 美元指数：受避险和利率预期支撑，但日元干预可能短期打压美元/日元。
- 日元：干预后可能面临贬值压力，关注115-118区间。
- 印度卢比：关税冲击下继续承压。
- 美股：航空股（精神航空倒闭）、能源相关股波动加大。
关联路径
美伊谈判破裂 / 军事威胁 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险情绪恶化
科威特出口归零+伊朗减产 / 供应缺口 / 能源成本推升通胀 / 央行政策两难
中美制裁升级 / 贸易战蔓延 / 供应链重构 / 全球贸易萎缩
日元干预 / 非美货币波动 / 套利交易平仓 / 新兴市场资金外流
来源
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-un-oeil-sur-le-monde-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439438.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260503085353W9D
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/not-yet-paid-a-big-enough-price-donald-trump-sceptical-as-iran-submits-14-point-plan-to-end-war/articleshow/130726204.cms
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-usa-iran-war-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz/article70933317.ece
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/3/iran-war-live-trump-says-reviewing-14-point-plan-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-03/10614972.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxPSGJjck82amFhWlA2S0IwcDhxMExFRS04WGVfRUJUNHpUMDBkcGF1YzlZc0hzcm5DRl95WmpNamkzTVF2TGFBY01mQWRzTDFoY1JtOFlYMV9EaFZNVWJiRUFGdXhoSHEtZzNGd2VYWTc3Sk9WOExFdUZsa1hOTHZJdXpfZkN0TmU5cm16R0RPZGFqR1JsaEFGcjVR0gGfAUFVX3lxTE43empuR1NlMGN4UG4xQmMtNHdfSTdWdlMtbzdvV0VqbG9GTHlBakpWRFMzWVV1ak5rOW90WDNKT3p3MlNMMjR4Xzh2TUZFWDZ2blJfUFRBdDlQVmRONDI0Rk5qTzMtQ3FJenk2TDVXbmctN0hFUGE1YzExQ2l1TzQ1MVhTNnM2Mkg5end0SXhNVE5NOUNXbUZaVVJtV1E4VQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260502-senior-iranian-officer-says-renewed-war-with-us-likely
- [9] https://www.irna.ir/news/86143782/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinion/columns/shankkar-aiyar/2026/May/02/trumps-war-sends-prices-up-rupee-down-and-budgets-into-a-spin
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinas-commerce-ministry-blocks-us-122430312.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-dubai-emirate-oeffnen-nach-waffenruhe-ihren-luftraum-schrittweise-a-b453de7b-bb9d-46de-a75c-63a90bacd806
- [13] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-says-it-redirected-48th-vessel-from-iranian-ports/3925070
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/news/on-sindoor-eve-army-releases-list-satellite-images-of-7-pakistan-terror-camps-destroyed-rajnath-commends-valour-of-soldiers/articleshow/130726143.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260503084648QDd
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050308551598f
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/spirit-airlines-collapses-amid-rising-fuel-costs-from-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/japan-likely-spent-34-5-091653225.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/syria-becomes-alternative-energy-corridor-for-oil-as-hormuz-effectively-blo?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-lci-direct-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439398.html
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-le-prix-des-carburants-provoque-la-col%C3%A8re-des-am%C3%A9ricains-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-toujours-bloqu%C3%A9
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-la-guerre-de-donald-trump-en-iran-a-t-il-renforc%C3%A9-le-r%C3%A9gime-des-mollahs
- [23] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-drafts-plan-to-regulate-strait-of-hormuz-transit-deputy-parliament-speaker/3925209
- [24] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-strikes-damaged-16-us-military-sites-in-middle-east-report-claims/3925162
2026-05-02
2026-05-02
进展要点
- 美元：短期受避险支撑，但贸易战升级可能压制
- 黄金：避险需求强劲，突破前高概率大
- 原油：霍尔木兹海峡风险与战争溢价持续，布伦特或冲高
- 欧美股市：汽车板块重挫，欧洲斯托克600承压
关联路径
汽车关税 / 美欧贸易战 / 全球增长预期下修 / 风险资产下跌
美伊谈判僵局 / 军事打击风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
伊朗袭击美军基地 / 地缘溢价上升 / 黄金避险买盘
战争支出扩大 / 美国财政赤字 / 长期利率担忧
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260502000253315
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/1/trump-announces-25-percent-tariffs-on-european-union-cars-trucks?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260501-trump-va-relever-les-droits-de-douane-%C3%A0-25-sur-les-v%C3%A9hicules-europ%C3%A9ens-d%C3%A8s-la-semaine-prochaine
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502015724pi5
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/d14d22e17e844cffb2a706d522068854/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPRWhEcG1UbEtCVld6T1lkcWZ0NjVLdHducUxSWlV2Wmo2eEJKaGo1b0hkLTJWb2NPMVd3NGszUXJ4MTI3UjhtcGh4TTdqZXMxQlk2SUQ0TjRlQ1REbnZ6RFJOMXBTUHM2MWs0RTNoNGJ1aFVsSFJhbVlSaDZjUkpaOUFjNjN5NmJZejRrbUx6SQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg4pqe1zzgqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.sky.com/story/eu-hits-back-at-8216unacceptable8217-donald-trump-over-plans-to-increase-tariffs-13539002
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trump-neue-autozoelle-treffen-europa-und-einen-deutschen-konzern-hart-a-be3f04b9-0109-4076-afab-218a01bd4c1c
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-to-raise-tariffs-on-cars-trucks-from-eu-to-25/a-77014772?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/1b9232412f534545a7ff8bef8edb07e5/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/1/trump-considering-option-to-blast-the-hell-out-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260501-n%C3%A9gociations-iran-etats-unis-dans-l-impasse-frappes-sur-le-liban-offensive-djihadiste-au-mali
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-donald-trump-will-kongress-nicht-um-erlaubnis-fuer-krieg-bitten-a-25a2ffb1-5728-420c-94da-f7af7f767942
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502044340Ob9
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz7l5v03po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOTXlxd1U3RE5OempqQ25NOHczbnkxc3FOSTRmMWU4RnN5WW1LZ3ZUUVhvYkU2cGg1RTNfVkJwMTlRaU5YdzhlQUdBVzkteWhVanRubkpnYnRTazBRdU4wX1ZPX1hKWnp3cjc0VHJiMFNqWDJObUdKblB4eTI0ZlQxT0oyclY1YkpvMEViOHpobWM0SmM5VFhZQldySUtJb19TT2JyeVhmVzB0RllKaWtGWGJDMGVuUQ?oc=5
2026-05-01
2026-05-01
进展要点
- 布伦特原油：126美元为强阻力，但地缘风险溢价未消，若美伊开战可能突破130美元。
- WTI原油：105美元附近，受美汽油价格4.30美元支撑，炼厂裂解价差走高。
- 黄金：避险需求支撑，若冲突升级可能冲击历史新高2400美元。
- 美元指数：受益于避险及美联储鹰派倾向，但日本干预带来短线下行风险。
- USD/JPY：155为短期支撑，若干预持续可能测试150，但利差仍支持套息。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升 / 央行政策两难
美伊军事对抗 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产（美元、黄金）流入 / 风险资产抛售
阿联酋退出OPEC+ / OPEC+控制力削弱 / 油价波动率上升 / 产油国财政和地缘博弈
日本外汇干预 / 日元短期升值 / 套息交易平仓 / 亚洲汇市连锁反应
来源
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/04/30/42914
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260501090925pcX
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260430-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-prix-du-p%C3%A9trole-au-plus-haut-depuis-2022
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-launches-fx-intervention-briefly-pushing-yen-to-155-from-160
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/1/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-ports-siege-intolerable-trump-mulls-action?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/a88369f137c10336.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-01/10614135.shtml
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/gulf-within-on-the-uae-leaving-opec/article70925606.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-103203927.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE9hTWF6eEpfcXlEcnlrNEZENTVLMEo5VzI1ajl0QUgtc0hjZF9ZVHE5b1FBaENzTkttSHpTUThnNEFReG9zVzJLenhEZFZVRnd1djVQWmRB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-strait-hormuz.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/639306-uae-opec-power-play/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/7ee2fe1fc9621f70.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/us-gas-reaches-4-30-per-gallon-trump-says-prices-will-drop-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260430-mojtaba-khamenei-d%C3%A9fie-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-le-cours-du-p%C3%A9trole-reste-volatile
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNbHEzUkJqd3VxMWZrZVlWNGpTUlE4ak4wbjlSeDAtS2pELUUwWWtyMVpfQWJNVnRybDFJajU1ZVIyQUVQN0ZzR3hkb2hCOHNfdjdXd0hrd19MMWhMd3pQQUZPbHk3ZUR2Q1BYZzZtTWoyWHFKN0g2V2pNbXV4eUZRZEtZb0dLOWtjWHI4cEpobXUxemVZcHpnLUI2dXg2TW05b3NmeFd30gGrAUFVX3lxTFBLNW5ZVG5TU0l0ZjhuWVVCMmMzRzU3NG1wLUJadE95cmdabkQyakhPMlh2bzRGLTBkSVczVWR1MVJpTndlTGdJajJ0VGJPd2ROal9qNXFhMEhFanB2dmhZS1otdnotU3c2YnRuRmppU2x1S0hLRTlzMUZxUXJJbUp4anJub1YwNHczNnVNZ1hwTi1tclNsLVhmMlBMWWQtRENJSHhJTDhneUkwVQ?
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trump-china-iran.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/639308-pentagon-underreporting-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-30
2026-04-30
进展要点
- 布伦特原油：收于118.03美元，盘中接近120美元，关注120整数关口及美国战略石油储备释放信号。
- WTI原油：收于106.88美元，涨幅6.95%，若布伦特继续上行，WTI可能突破110美元。
- 黄金：避险需求推动金价走高，关注美伊冲突升级是否带动金价测试前高。
- 美元指数：美联储按兵不动支撑美元，但贸易摩擦可能压制美元上行空间。
- 美股：标普500微跌0.04%，科技股财报乐观抵消部分能源担忧，但风险偏好整体偏弱。
- 美债收益率：10年期收益率受通胀预期支撑，关注鲍威尔讲话后曲线变化。
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 全球避险
特朗普延长封锁+阿联酋退出OPEC / 供给不确定性增大 / 原油波动率飙升 / 能源股与航空股分化
中国施压欧盟 / 中欧贸易摩擦升级 / 欧元 / 人民币汇率波动 / 全球贸易链成本上升
鲍威尔留任+独立性争议 / 美联储政策路径不确定性 / 美债收益率曲线陡化 / 银行股与科技股估值压力
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260430062349378
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639259-iran-war-60-days/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/iran-krieg-brent-oelpreis-schiesst-nach-drohungen-von-donald-trump-in-die-hoehe-a-c6abe27e-8f4f-4aea-b3d3-03577bd2bcce
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-powell-to-stay-on-after-chair-term/article70922354.ece
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613439.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQOWMyU0ZNQ0M1YklBdzNpTmFlc0xyRGh5MllkbUtGRUMwS0FyaVlJVlh4c3JXNjlDVWpQSTdfOTVROXl3WHBOV3MteFBlZ1ZxZTdFYmVQMzJpLXpocklLUm9nYTRHa3pEbzZxYlN5M1duUktiOXY3dVc4RU9yNXlneWNsOW9qaFd3TlZDV1RrVXY4clpVY1pJazdfbTZ3bk5oWXAwZDJaRklSeGNnZ3diU3ppUkZCcTBUNXc?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/29/uae-quits-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rm4zk3kgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260430/b6793c9c730a4df7b1476b9cadc8dde6/c.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4118026-putin-announces-his-readiness-to-declare-ceasefire-on-may-9.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430090250cDZ
- [12] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-keeps-iran-blockade-trump-links-move-to-nuclear-deal-as-oil-nears-120/article70922353.ece
- [13] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/fed-chef-jerome-powell-er-bleibt-a-1f5db838-3887-49a4-8788-36fcaef16b6d
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613435.shtml
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/29/why-is-the-uae-quitting-opec-and-whats-the-impact?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300833473Qc
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080150X59
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080002e2g
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300732533nE
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430072101IHb
2026-04-29
2026-04-29
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特徘徊112美元，纽约突破100美元，后续取决于霍尔木兹僵局及阿联酋增产幅度。
- 黄金：避险资金涌入，金价持续走高，关注能否突破前高。
- 美元：避险需求支撑美元指数，但通胀风险可能限制涨幅。
- 权益：全球股市承压，能源股受益于油价高位，但风险偏好低迷。
关联路径
阿联酋退出OPEC / OPEC解体风险 / 各国增产竞争 / 油价长期走势不确定性
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
美伊僵局持续 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）上涨
世界银行能源价格预测 / 市场对央行政策预期调整 / 风险资产波动加大
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-in-blow-to-oil-cartel-amid-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/uae-quits-opec-in-shock-move-amid-energy-turmoil/a-76968579?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260429/6223708a8ab742bd9add51e81cfb276e/c.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/uae-opec.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612580.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260428/42f598d771584143a69a6d3205fd0d71/c.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260428-iran-talks-stall-amid-hormuz-tensions-and-ceasefire-violations-in-lebanon
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429080038Urk
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR0Nyd3lpa3Q5SDNRVlNYbG1nUXQwUkU5WlY5SGFrQmROTFZXWGhYRnNBR2JHTDdZMmdBb2REc29FaGdVWTlCa28yMEttd3RKaGZINVk4NHBDakF6amc0d0pFeDA5Vk8tS0RGOVdmc245TlRxUjJNdlJTRHZES2wzU0NtRnZMT0FI?oc=5
- [10] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/639229-uae-opec-cartel-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-104929175.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-and-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260428/f7281943198e487ea398f92dbf47fb08/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429073257Z46
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260428-uae-opec-departure-a-manifestation-of-dissatisfaction-vis-%C3%A0-vis-saudi-arabia-expert-says
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTE94dUdMcUxFZlZPcVJtX3N5UWJzQmhfRDBPUktSZkZndkppelJhWHQxeGk5QWwwX2pqWTV3aWdka2U2MGpITWpSckVZS3RhRHJ4TlN0ZFN4WXFqdi1HMG1OdU5xTThiNUxLLWpXd1pJRnREZw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/united-arab-emirates-leaves-opec.html
2026-04-28
2026-04-28
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特/WTI受霍尔木兹局势支撑，隔夜分别涨2.8%/2.1%，关注特朗普和平计划。
- 黄金：避险需求推动金价上行，关注刺杀事件后续发展。
- 美元：政治风险叠加避险，美元指数短期偏强。
- 美股：标普500、纳指小幅上涨（+0.12%/+0.2%），但政治风险压制风险偏好。
- 美债：收益率可能下行，避险买盘增加。
- 汇率：EUR/CNY受中欧贸易摩擦影响波动加大。
关联路径
特朗普遇刺未遂 / 政治不确定性 / 避险需求 / 美元 / 黄金升，股市跌
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 油价涨 / 通胀预期升 / 风险资产承压
美伊谈判进展 / 供给风险下降 / 风险偏好回升（受限）
中欧贸易摩擦 / 关税 / 非关税壁垒 / 全球贸易放缓 / 相关货币 / 股票受挫
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/politics/trump-assassination-attempt-cole-allen-charges.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/28/iran-war-live-trump-reviews-peace-plan-un-calls-for-hormuz-to-reopen?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083338GrV
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612004.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPd2Q4RjJxWldmdnJEOHNpNG0yeUJDR3hDVFBoanBrZHVuTFJoSGw3MnN6QllNTVI4dC1LMUsyYWNwMlhkT1RfN3QxanZXYU5QVFZvaklBN3ZVOS1fMHFNVVBPS3pSTTNCS1RiLWhTNm12TTdTRjRnemt0SXA4aXpZSmNDajZOYkFudlB2cEV3?oc=5
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260427-suspect-in-press-gala-shooting-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/man-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump-in-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting/article70913760.ece
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting-suspect-arraigned-monday/story?id=132410865
- [10] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-04/usa-korrespondentendinner-donald-trump-attentat-anklage
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5544797/as-tolak-iran-kuasai-selat-hormuz
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083424bVv
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_AFBVV95cUxPX0xJcUFkRWhScGRqdXdFNV94ZUYyb0JWOHdiRkdiakFSWFRGd2dqZ2tnSXladUpFcklMZkJUVDltX0JvZFkxaDVLV2JPV1lmS0VPVHV3MDJZR05Dc3N0TGVrYUkwU0FHeGhiTmZITnV5cUVpanlwbVVyZWFCbm1hS3BWQUZ5Tk5xRzhTTV94SEcxbVU3ZWJtUnJRNmh6ZkZRUC0zTTBwdG85SHBDUVNXNDl1bDlDZkZLU1N3NFZwRjY4VHNiUjNiQnA1VmVFNmFCLTFjRXhncHlfWWQwSEFhWW5LejItckgxUS1GcDZHOEs2ZEdBSW95cGdTeEY?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/hezbollah-and-israel-swap-threats-and-strikes-across-lebanons-border?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz-nuclear.html
- [16] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-vows-countermeasures-if-eu-enacts-made-in-europe-plan/article70913665.ece
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
进展要点
- USD：避险买盘推动美元指数走强，关注98-99区间突破
- Gold：现货黄金逼近前高，地缘风险持续提供支撑
- Oil：布伦特原油突破90美元关口，霍尔木兹海峡及制裁豁免终止双重驱动
- Equities：标普500承压，波动率指数可能跳升，防御板块受青睐
- Rates：美债收益率下行，长端利率受避险资金追捧
- KRW：韩国发放高油价补贴，韩元面临输入性通胀压力
关联路径
特朗普遇刺 / 政治不确定性 / 美元 / 黄金上涨 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗海峡收费+美豁免终止 / 石油供应收缩 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期抬升
以黎冲突升级 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产走强
俄乌核设施遇袭 / 核安全担忧 / 地缘溢价扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427091017XG8
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260426/daba923ddc844ddabea5d0129532f166/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-27/10611350.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxgv8j7zlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPcVBWblkyWXVKYUo5a0NJTU5leldLUzZ2alhRVXFoWHdHWWtkZDJwSUl3WVZWeW92T001QXJNLUEwY1NnNUlxSk4wVEM2LWJ4d290NXBFbzF5RkRpMzFNd3JzQTRGejBHNWx6bjFEM2o2dmJJMy1uVllaenRMcUlzTUp4T2lqel9GU1ZnSW9nd253bFo4UVRjMVhEdVFuMW1mM3EtYXp4WXNCamtaZ2steWtXclVJZGlLTFE?oc=5
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/us/politics/shots-fired-inside-the-pandemonium-at-the-washington-hilton.html
- [7] https://orf.at/stories/3428055
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-wont-renew-iranian-russian-215951473.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/israel-issues-forced-evacuation-orders-for-southern-lebanon-in-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4116887-zelensky-strike-on-chernobyl-npp-shows-moscow-cannot-be-trusted-as-international-partner.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/russia-north-korea-agree-long-term-military-cooperation/a-76945404?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/how-israel-deployed-iron-dome-to-uae-amid-iran-war-explained/articleshow/130535531.cms
- [13] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ee3833fdddff1c348b458a.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/feuilleton/2026-04/correspondents-dinner-donald-trump-attentat-pressekonferenz-weisses-haus
- [15] https://elpais.com/videos/2026-04-26/cronologia-visual-del-atentado-contra-trump-en-la-cena-de-corresponsales-de-la-casa-blanca.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427072511bO0
- [17] https://orf.at/stories/3428051
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-peace-talks-pakistan.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPUDFiSmpOTEdtZlVya0poQkx2Q29ZNlZGWkEtd21lVk5IQ20yXzBTbmZsOV9BM0RvTk9rMUREaTJPYmJEZUV0V2I3cUdVa3lBVkJGY2NJcnd1THVvVGZkWURleFBnWjZrMUVlaW5iZ2g0OEc3dW9hdy1PNzlqeVdRcy1ZU0pWMC1BUGdTb2JPVVFfd1RKdVBBUS1DcFYxdU44cGFzSE5FR2_SAa4BQVVfeXFMTVloSWlMQjRRa0FxRlNoMHBKM3RERjhla2ctajgyUEF6UmNqbFZ2bklrS2lDUF81U0pTZlRmVGlDN2tvNldoRmxEa1Z4cjBQTVJrbmNiUDFDWHo4WEVubnowYWtDbkMxYUpMblJxTkdPN0JYdVZRRlBOQlB2ZktBakFvS0ZIOXVxWFJfeDBrOVBGeU91OF8zZjFDcGVLX2F1ZW9DVGdyTW54LS0
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/trump-his-administration-likely-targets-at-media-dinner-us-official?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-26
2026-04-26
进展要点
- 布伦特原油：突破100美元后，若海峡封锁持续，下一阻力位看120美元。
- 黄金：避险情绪推动金价上行，关注2400美元关口。
- 美元指数：避险买盘支撑，可能测试105高位。
- 标普500指数：波动性加大，关注特朗普言论及财报季影响。
- 美国国债：避险涌入压低收益率，10年期收益率可能跌破4%。
- 航运/保险：霍尔木兹风险溢价上升，相关ETF及费率上涨。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀与央行紧缩预期
美伊谈判破裂 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强
以黎冲突升级 / 中东溢出风险 / 原油流动性收紧
特朗普言论 / 政策不确定性 / 股市波动放大
来源
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/doble-bloqueo-estrecho-ormuz-atasca-trump-busqueda-salida-caotica-gestion-guerra-iran_1_13168241.html
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russian-attacks-kill-3-wound-082655969.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/26/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-talks-under-siege-trump-cancels-envoys-trip?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ecadb421efa0b0538b45a2.html
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/usa-iran-trump-absage-pakistan
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426085319zmZ
- [7] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-says-its-hunting-for-explosive-mines-in-latest-push-to-open-strait-of-hormuz/article70905372.ece
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1060483/iran-sita-dua-kapal-di-selat-hormuz-diduga-terkait-dengan-israel
- [9] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-stepping-up-plans-potential-37069193
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-sonntag-112.html
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/perehovory-ssha-ta-iranu-v-pakystani-zirvalysia-shche-do-pochatku-hlava-mzs-iranu-zalyshyv-islamabad
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-26/10610976.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxOUHFYOUgyaGRzV0Z3eWVYQkNoR3Zfd1NxdjJyR000bDhDYk12dUs4RnNRSThKbHF0d2I4STM2NXNyNU5SRTZncGNlcmxDblZrOVV5WUt1VmIxZG5TdTV2YUR2N3RvZ2pYeWxIUW5rUndJd1EzTXJvRE54bHMxNTVkanUwZWFZdHRqanhhalVpZ1NWRi03UDhCLVRseHlQRF9rTVExa2lfN2U4d3MwVEEtMi1HMm4?oc=5
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Netanjahu-befiehlt-trotz-Waffenruhe-massive-Angriffe-im-Libanon-id30755821.html
- [15] https://orf.at/stories/3427974
- [16] https://www.irna.ir/news/86137239/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF
- [17] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/latest-ceasefire-talks-fail-as-irans-top-diplomat-leaves-pakistan-and-trump-tells-envoys-not-to-go
- [18] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozdushnye-sily-rossiya-vypustila-po-ukraine-47-raket-i-bolee-600-bespilotnikov
- [19] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260425-strait-talks-what-s-at-stake-in-hormuz
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426080800Pgk
2026-04-25
2026-04-25
进展要点
- 原油（布伦特）：突破100美元，若霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，上看120美元。
- 黄金：避险推动站上3400美元/盎司，若风险持续或测试3500美元。
- 美元指数：受避险资金流入支撑，但消费者信心疲软限制涨幅。
- 美股标普500：消费者信心和油价冲击双重打压，可能下探4500点。
- 美债10年期收益率：沃什缩表预期推升收益率至4.5%附近，但衰退担忧限制上行。
- 人民币/美元：中国炼油厂制裁增加贬值压力，关注7.30防线。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
美国制裁中国炼油厂 / 中国石油进口成本上升 / 人民币贬值压力 / 新兴市场资金外流
消费者信心崩溃 / 美国消费放缓 / 经济衰退预期 / 美债收益率曲线倒挂加深
沃什缩表信号 / 流动性收紧 / 利率上升 / 股票估值压缩
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639021-trump-hormuz-iranian-boats-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/world/middleeast/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-23/trump-ordena-disparar-a-matar-a-los-barcos-que-minen-ormuz-y-dice-que-iran-no-sabe-quien-es-su-lider.html
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260425090048v87
- [5] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/24/us-imposes-sanctions-on-a-china-based-oil-refinery-40-shippers-over-iranian-oil
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/us-justice-department-drops-investigation-into-fed-chair-powell/a-76929212?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOeUFpRTI4WDZhekJUTm1KdGVjNzZiQ3BkR0FySWMzNHlyd1N4SnZTMGpXV2pWRjdQZnYxRUJpM0REUmZxbXFFakRFbG9ZRDJVeWVqM25LcmV3ZURPbWZlXzkxOUhEN0NnOVpwWVdNcU5vakJhazZOVmN5VG5GLVZ0WFAxQ0RXd2pwc1JTYlFOam1raV9CS25lTXQweXhYcUNjWlIzajJzQ013RjgxQS1F0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1UZmFPY2IyMnZvd0lDRmFFVk9HdDhsVnA2RmlfZW52Mkk1allGS0M4RmZ3RHRva01lQmhMZjhCdTFfdnJtNUlBekx5MUJfa09HTE56WURvdGNheDN3Y1Y5SlVVU19SUnFwUWFnYTlUNEZaVDVZQ01DUElDTENMZE9lUnZ1WkYxbFRoTUJxU3dITlFJa014a3liMnkzcFBSNWdwR1R
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260425/0c21b585a3b042a0a07f61a95419c370/c.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/24/russian-oil-exports-slump-as-ukraine-hammers-ports-and-refineries?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-slaps-export-curbs-on-european-firms-over-taiwan-arms-sales/article70901919.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-25/10610558.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-bans-dual-items-exports-083335858.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-hegseth-us-blockade-has-gone-global
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202604250844155JP
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNbHZtdmRvTVVHbUdLSXRqam5mSEsxZTUxdHFwaENuVktwWVR1NVp6UUVEWnpVbHNxampEMngtRVpad1M0emxUZUhRcThVTTFnbWZrYnFSNHJrVWZXNHR4SHhwQlBHOURMbm8zR04zcmhkdTFYRUlRY0VoVnItdVhsRnhTU1lEZnVyeUc0a0Zqb2xNNGhDeDR4VmtqVUJ2UC1jRF9LY0FLR1B6RWU1WVhreU5uVdIBuAFBVV95cUxPWkVSdXFvTDYyaDhkcFRHRUYxWjM0amJrZGxXSElSb2Q5bnlwREhPbkZ6T0JFQ3U2Ml9QSjJPQW5UYTRmaWEzcDN0RDJ4RkV6akJpWVZfWjJGd3FKQW9pN3Z3UmJQZU1EeE82bzRhUVJQbWJwR0Rxa1hzSFR1TWJIdURzWEJCMjM1b0lKM2UtRjl3YUdySkFXVzlwd1U1U0E
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-rates-balance-sheet.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/24/us-justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/639029-israel-threatens-iran-stone-age/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10610537.shtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-24/el-cerco-maritimo-estadounidense-agrava-la-fragil-situacion-economica-de-iran.html
2026-04-24
2026-04-24
进展要点
- 原油：布伦特原油受霍尔木兹风险支撑，突破关键阻力概率大
- 黄金：避险资金流入，创近期新高，关注1900美元关口
- 美元：风险偏好下降，美元指数走强
- 美股：全面承压，能源股相对强势，科技股遭抛售
- 欧元：受欧盟制裁及乌克兰贷款拖累，兑美元偏弱
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险资产下跌
欧盟制裁俄罗斯 / 能源贸易限制 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 欧元承压
中东战争 / 巴拿马运河收费翻倍 / 全球贸易成本上升
德黑兰防空活动 / 停火破裂风险 / 避险需求提振黄金
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69ea61f0e85eceab218b45a1.html
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-shoot-and-kill-on-mine-laying-boats-in-strait-of-hormuz/live-76903459?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-seizes-another-115401871.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260424/trump-orders-us-navy-to-destroy-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/us-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/23/trump-orders-military-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-small-boats-choking-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/24362fec668c4243bdc5f187d6e9c804/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBHWHh4MHJiY3N4OUJkNG8tSnpscUVWQjFMaUhtMkdMOGxtU0s5YjY0TzBpNUhsZ0Y3YzJ3clVaa2d2X29MMUNTRXhKQ0tWbUlfTUxrcGJmMmpFbUZYTUpjVjR1bHAwbzV4UGJsVmRFWXFfTFl3b3Q0?oc=5
- [9] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578508.html
- [10] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Dritter-US-Flugzeugtraeger-im-Nahen-Osten-eingetroffen-id30749237.html
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609724.shtml
- [12] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/panama-canal-transit-fees-skyrocket-amid-war-in-middle-east/3916289
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260424/563b5786ef5a4642a43fd7c4b70058e5/c.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/24/iran-war-live-lebanon-truce-extended-trump-says-time-not-on-tehrans-side?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69e9dc91e9cf4ab1528b4573.html
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578352.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Explosionen-und-Flugabwehr-ueber-Teheran-id30749146.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609710.shtml
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPZnctV1ZiSVNwQ2pqOFo4V0pCOFVZOEJjYUkwVUVWNzFIZEZBVnIzQlV5eEU2MGNlUWllOE9IVFc4dE96SmdOOVp0UjZjWmVEQlZjazI3SG9yb1k3WGJxbVlEXzU5bUZnU2YteDdLaVNlTHk0NGlDTUdyZ3l4ZXBxelBsYVdQalNja3c0Ug?oc=5
2026-04-23
2026-04-23
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特原油突破100美元/桶，关注后续走势，若冲突升级可能进一步上涨。
- 股市：美股因停火延长上涨，纳斯达克和标普500涨幅超1%，但地缘风险限制涨幅。
- 避险资产：黄金可能因风险上升而受益，美元因避险需求走强。
- 汇率：欧元承压于德国增长下调和能源风险，美元指数可能上行。
- 债券：通胀预期上升可能推高利率，央行政策收紧风险增加。
- 大宗商品：航空燃油危机威胁欧洲夏季出行，相关板块股票可能下跌。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨
停火延长 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹
能源危机 / 经济增长下调 / 风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxPUTdJWGw0MnB0amZkdDE2aXVJckZnRlFYd0xfa3RYc2dmTHNFWXVLLWdRb0Nld2otX2tFc0dTclBJdFpYMEtPbnltRXREUV9jdVhTa01lMXl3Rzl2MFV5T29xOWR4b0l0SGpvTzROcWRzZFhpdjNVS0xNMDZjbGI4WXpGZW1USEdKQU9rSG80OWo1bjV0UnJLckh0ZlZPVTVLa2FNcjZmNmtzUEpydmFN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1tc3Qxd1ZDQnhhcXU0TEs3aFB2aGZMVmhZRzQ2aGU4MkpTTG04YnU5QUpEbG9rTjhFOVBOTm5IMDFWaURnMHhWVXR1R1NSc2xEbktZRXpycUlOcVV1eEVkVEZSdVhneFNSdWF1dWZzWV9mTzlZQnEwa0tmX3hBUFZCWm5zb0dzMTZVbHkzQ09rVGM5dm5ocWc3ZEhtMFlHMTY2RXB
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-maintains-blockade-diplomacy-stalls?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/3da4708309dd4578bd9853b98a86c87a/c.html
- [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-divers-mines-strait-of-hormuz/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w3vqv0edpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-stocks-close-higher-after-trump-extends-ceasefire-with-iran-earnings-boost-sentiment/3915269
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260423/69a4fb69dfc24375a06c1ec4201d8b04/c.html
- [8] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/22/irgc-fires-on-container-ship-in-hormuz-as-trump-says-iran-collapsing-financially
- [9] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638934-fuel-crisis-summer-holidays-europe/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-23/10608931.shtml
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/ukraine-restarts-russian-oil-flows-to-europe-unblocking-90bn-eu-loan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozle-chernobylskoi-i-hmelnitskoi-aes-proletalo-35-kinzhalov-nekotorye-upali-kravchenko
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995dkl4dvvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-hormuz-as-us-blockade-holds-talks-stall?utm_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-turned-back-29-vessels-since-start-of-naval-blockade-of-iran-centcom/3915220
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPRFZKelM2ZlBobW5DVjNhY2ZWeDc2a0VKZ3otVU1xNWFIOHFSVFhKUTFMenFtc3JUSTNwcWRoYW5uN05RZFhYcHFYQ1RNTHQ1YjVtQUlUcm55SHJmcV9FdzBzNFBIRDRDS3MzanlnN280bWFDSVRpY3NQZW5xanBHWWFzLVp5SUltSEh3eVV5ZmpjcWpUZDJ0eTZUVW8wMG9DdVdNcEpOM2t3bE0ydGVJZkZKTHhJVHp3UEdv?oc=5
- [18] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/evrosoyuz
- [19] https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-slashes-economy-growth-forecasts/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
2026-04-22
2026-04-22
进展要点
- 原油价格因中东供应风险上涨，关注布伦特和WTI期货
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，价格可能突破4800美元关口
- 股市承压，富时100指数因战争期限下跌，美股高开后需警惕回调
- 美元可能因避险需求走强，关注美元指数和主要货币对
- 欧洲股市受能源冲击担忧波动，EUR/USD汇率敏感
- 利率市场关注美联储政策预期，美债收益率可能上行
关联路径
伊朗谈判破裂 / 中东地缘风险上升 / 油价和金价上涨 / 通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪
中美 tensions / 制裁风险 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金上涨
美联储政策预期 / 美元和利率波动 / 全球资产重新定价 / 股市调整
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260422/82f87a374e194c6eaba6c6c350563634/c.html
- [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-france-to-lead-multinational-strait-of-hormuz-military-planning-conference
- [3] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/trump-estende-indefinidamente-o-cessar-fogo-com-o-ira-horas-antes-de-fim-de-prazo.ghtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/eu-eyes-options-as-iran-conflict-threatens-jet-fuel-shortages?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/04/21/petroleo-sobe-com-impasse-nas-negociacoes-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-dials-up-pressure-after-japanese-destroyer-transits-taiwan-strait
- [7] https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/donald-trump-primark-rollsroyce-jd-vance-tim-cook-b1279515.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dl3ez4mpno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/thought-i-had-understanding-with-xi-trump-says-ship-seized-by-us-had-gift-from-china-for-iran/articleshow/130421362.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638850-japan-pacifict-policy-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-22/10608177.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPX05YQks4SXZnMmVqN1Zxb1l5VDVvQkpzUlJKWHNhNjZFSVhsVEczYV9nTTluTHlROHl4b3FkeHY3MG83a21DVkVWQ2MwSzBmRmVNWHByd19DNGdIRzR0MTN0X3Q3LV9SRWFTOWxObm9raE11MkJOeXB2b2RMS3d4VHlSSERCNngwdEx1X0hESUtNTWpaS0F6dXljbDN4bS1NSXVTNU50RllVWXprMXhaSg?oc=5
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/peace-deal-trump-bombing-ceasefire-deadline-b2961967.html
- [14] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260420~cdf674023e.en.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/energy-environment/strait-hormuz-oil-natural-gas.html
- [16] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4114995-zelensky-approves-list-of-ukraines-next-military-operations.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/d76e6830831749beb548e9357889dd1c/c.html
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/ir-diz-que-bloqueio-naval-dos-eua-ato-de-guerra.ghtml
- [20] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/21/kevin-warsh-diz-que-fed-precisa-de-novo-arcabouco-para-enfrentar-a-inflacao.ghtml
2026-04-21
2026-04-21
进展要点
- 原油价格：纽约原油期货收于每桶89.61美元，涨6.87%；布伦特原油收于95.48美元，涨5.64%。
- 黄金：避险需求可能推高金价，作为安全资产受到青睐。
- 美元：地缘政治风险支撑美元作为避险货币，但美联储政策不确定性带来波动。
- 股市：风险情绪恶化，全球股市可能承压，特别是能源敏感板块。
- 利率：美联储提名事件增加货币政策不确定性，美债收益率可能波动。
- 大宗商品：油价上涨带动通胀预期，关注其他商品如农产品和金属价格。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地区冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
谈判破裂 / 中东升级 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/65dcf44dad444df1af920586d6915969/c.html
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd88r2wjzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/20/how-is-the-iran-war-affecting-the-russia-ukraine-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260421/e881f10543754b00b9e5db0a154542e5/c.html
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-b2961365.html
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/military-blockade-iran-strait-hormuz.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxORXd1REM4UGE3TGNlNUo3SENlLVVKU0c5a0pYSE9tUGxVSXZ4TTR5UDhNdjMtMzMyUGxSaXdMZFRaajVvZkl4X01FOER2QWFHTExmdUppX0N2UlpLdW5BOFp6R1dCQkpESGh0TDRLZU5ORlB3OXo2aFhMVTA1V1EyNmlkNndvMGU4MEl5WVB5eVVXUW1NY3p3aThMNjE3VVYtMTlybGpIMA?oc=5
- [8] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-marines-uss-tripoli-seized-iranian/?id=132196152
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638762-israel-blood-feud-us-iran-james-webb/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260420221202mpn
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/dxw/2026/04-20/10607342.shtml
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/4c7f703fb14b4f41ad1af9f68fb3055c/c.html
- [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75kg0vdxyro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-senate-banking-committee-hearing.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/638768-trump-iran-threats-acceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxQZklJTEJXMTV5c3o3REtYRTJCTmFRRVFWZEYzY2p2OEtGSTc2S3BnUVBLcmVDanltVGpvUVR1OWUydnJONTdETElIampPT1pCeXpiaVM0bXl4Tnk4YWtLQTdGM04tekZDUlg2SHdXX0lCNHBGSjlteUpJR05HbXRCV0NXNFZVNkpTay1sTGxoZXJ3ckhVRG5ZOVM0NWNTTDlybUdsbnlJTE1nMHdIZmpJbXJvbHF5VmNZZ1NwUEppOG8?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/israel-never-talked-me-into-the-war-with-iran-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-israel-iran-war-october-7-b2961183.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420214421sFT
2026-04-20
2026-04-20
进展要点
- 原油价格飙涨7%，WTI和布伦特油价面临上行压力。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，金价可能进一步走高。
- 美元因避险需求而走强，但地缘风险可能抑制风险货币。
- 全球股市承压，尤其是能源敏感板块和新兴市场。
- 美国国债收益率可能因避险需求而下降。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀压力
谈判停滞 / 地缘不确定性增加 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
伊朗强硬回应 / 地区供应中断 / 能源市场波动 / 股市调整
大国博弈加剧 / 全球风险溢价上升 / 资产重新定价
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420083047QIP
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOdlRGMC1MdHFSUm5aa0tZbDA1NDF6d3Rpb0RLNm1SNFF0eGl6YUY3WWJHM011bnFYZEdFX2ltay1yZzY5X0lSaENVM0M2bzUwUUhOZHd4VmEtaElwdndWa3J5cjc4MnRfTk53RUlhUGJyQ1NidEt5cVRFbGhkX0VLaUpn0gGHAUFVX3lxTFBWQUkyUERmREFYWGc2Yk5OSy11Rm9Ed3VZSlpIaEppTC1aVGZHdmJ5bHE3cU9hRzAtSjFPWEwtVWNMQjc2MWtwbWJadzZFaGNMOF9FRlVEeE1mbXdzZWpwbnEwSFdFZjJjYmwzQU1DSzRxTC1Kc2VzeUdKV25uVV9HWlZmTk5nWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260420/2abb8511885f4948a0bdb0526b5aae77/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjzy35825o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606799.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-confirms-us-seized-iranian-vessel-says-it-will-retaliate-soon-/3911687
- [7] https://globalnews.ca/news/11808120/iran-oil-prices-strait-of-hormuz-standoff
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-vows-response-to-us-seizure-of-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/19/us-forces-attack-and-seize-iranian-ship-touska-near-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638742-us-fires-iranian-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg4jnn131qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114330-tramp-zaaviv-pro-perehoplenna-iranskogo-sudna-amerikanskimi-vms-v-omanskij-zatoci.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-19/estados-unidos-intercepta-un-petrolero-irani-que-trataba-de-superar-el-estrecho-de-ormuz.html
- [14] https://orf.at/stories/3427365
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260419/c7286c8315d6457eb38862da3bdb061f/c.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420082541zWf
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606779.shtml
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-seized-iranian-flagged-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOanFJd19CUnZMSkRITFo3bmh0OGdPN2hKM2x0V1ZDcGpvSU0tck56YU9nZlY3aWJJdFRsNzVEeDBnLXEyV21BWnI0MUFKTjYtel96T3N1ZzczRGEydWJrWDVoZWprS09qMDJacVVqVVlZX2E4dU9ocmNyd1V6OFdEUkY5X29ORU1UZHRkZjY1aU1CRHlS?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/638736-us-seizes-iranian-flagged-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-19
2026-04-19
进展要点
- 油价因供应中断风险大幅上涨，关注布伦特和WTI期货。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格可能继续上行。
- 美元因避险需求走强，但可能受通胀担忧限制。
- 全球股市面临风险，尤其是能源依赖型行业。
- 债券市场避险需求推高国债价格，收益率下降。
关联路径
伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀风险上升
美伊紧张升级 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
美国登检伊朗船只 / 地缘风险加剧 / 石油供应担忧 / 市场波动增加
地区冲突扩大 / 全球风险情绪恶化 / 资产重新定价
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/19/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-date-set-for-us-talks-hormuz-strait-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-fully-closes-strait-of-hormuz-over-us-blockade/article70879044.ece
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE1PclNJckZUN0o5SXVGa1REVkhfVG9wZUx6T2E4Z1R0SkpmWW9MdE5fU2RaaEhpaGt2dk9Ucm5lLURRV085S3hfb1hWSl9TdjRKc2t4WFZqSHcxeTNqbjI4UHVDczlINHRpcktodGFCLS1ZN3pDN0ZuZ2dn?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-iran-war-end-052157501.html
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/more-than-1-000-tel-aviv-homes-left-uninhabitable-by-iran-war-mayor/3911064
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114122-tramp-obgovoriv-u-situacijnij-kimnati-krizu-sodo-ormuzkoi-protoki-axios.html
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/18/nx-s1-5789852/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-tenuously-holds
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2631x6nelo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638685-us-board-iran-vessels/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sklykav-terminovu-naradu-cherez-zahrozu-viiny-z-iranom-zmi
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3427284
- [12] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/18/69e3c454fc6c839d028b459f-video.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-face-au-blocus-am%C3%A9ricain
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaWhWNHdua3F2cEE3RVNzZFNHV1o5N0RsOFFybkxtOThyWm5BZ2MzNXRsYTFuVnJHREp1LVotYWJidXc1T2NqM0RzM2NMQmtNdXlyQ1ViZ0RhaEJRckJIVDY2bURJZXpfMW5hZTlWT0F4VGlsdUVRYnlOYlVXNERxWG9IeUN4S2ZZUmJGUkJkUzAwY1FsQ1c3NVFRQWo5N0Rq?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-over-us-blockade-of-its-ports?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-hints-resuming-attacks-045633309.html
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-strait-to-close-until-us-lifts-naval-blockade/3910961
- [18] https://orf.at/stories/3427249
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114099-vijskovi-ssa-gotuutsa-do-visadki-na-sudna-povazani-z-iranom-wsj.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
2026-04-18
2026-04-18
进展要点
- 国际油价暴跌超10%，布伦特原油期货跌破90美元，缓解通胀压力。
- 股市因油价下跌而上涨，风险情绪改善，但地缘风险限制涨幅。
- 避险资产如黄金和美元可能因冲突升级而受益，需监控资金流向。
- 石油期货大幅波动，交易员在公告前押注下跌，显示市场敏感度。
- 关注通胀预期变化，油价下跌可能降低央行加息压力。
- 汇率市场：美元可能因避险需求走强，新兴市场货币承压。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡开放 / 石油供应增加 / 油价下跌 / 通胀缓解、股市上涨
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 避险资产需求上升
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘紧张缓解 / 风险资产上涨、油价承压
台海紧张 / 避险情绪 / 美元黄金走强、风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/how-50-days-of-iran-war-led-to-loss-of-50-billion-worth-of-oil?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260417/2d185ad19a1a47de86f5fc1979224deb/c.html
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009552315
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNUzlVaVRtODBnRGVTaG1TUzFDNG9KN2pZMEZxdmMzMU9QemsydzVmLXZXRmROZnBGbjZDYTBtTU1pV3lJWHRBWUNzTkJVR0tuejR0eHBDNWRLUDVCQTNuMzRDbE9zeTJpbkotRjVRaExWc3loZ1lyUlgtRVB2MUNmUDdCemYxLTVWQmhCUXJhbmU2SDNoU1duS1pRVDhQUzk3SjB6NDRnTldDS0pRLTRNLWlkazFMWDVTZ01yaEhKbVhqYm8?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/stocks-surge-oil-prices-plummet-134523237.html
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/editorial/quick-take/2026/Apr/17/quick-take-dial-i-for-hormuz
- [7] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/tramp-dumayu-mirnoe-soglashenie-s-iranom-budet-cherez-den-dva
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/17/world-reacts-to-the-opening-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-amid-us-iran-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg045z73z1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-to-accelerate-effort-secure-hormuz-despite-donald-trump-order-to-stay-away/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260417/8f9f2d58ec6b4645bb2039f88bd37eaa/c.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/oil-tumbles-nearly-15-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-completely-open
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOZGV0aXlsUV9hejJ5LVBuU3BramFsdS14V2YwVG8zcGRtOW9WWlZjQnkyU1I4bHVuZFRrdnB3VlplemJPaDM0NUt4Ql9qRDF1SzlFZnUteXVncGI4MGk1bW5VQUhYMDVpdUdIQzZfcEtocTFRUXpWNmk0NlNQanRrSTZ4a3g?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260418/1f1df6c278ae404fbac5646e4671ca71/c.html
- [15] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-plunge-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-completely-open-trump-says-regime-has-agreed-to-indefinitely-suspend-nuclear-program-134154875.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/4/17/aje-onl-tt_irn_kharg_av_v3-170426?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/traders-place-760-million-bet-on-falling-oil-ahead-of-hormuz-announcement?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009551315
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
进展要点
- 石油：霍尔木兹海峡关闭支撑油价，但停火协议可能带来下行压力；关注布伦特原油波动。
- 黄金：地缘风险升级推动避险需求，金价或上涨；但风险情绪改善可能抑制涨幅。
- 美元：避险属性增强，美元可能走强；但风险资产反弹或削弱其势头。
- 股市：美伊谈判进展和中国GDP增长利好风险资产，标普500或反弹；但冲突消息打压情绪。
- 外汇：地缘紧张支撑美元，欧元因欧洲增长担忧承压；人民币受中国经济数据支撑。
- 利率：避险情绪可能推高美国国债收益率，但增长担忧限制上升空间。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油和化肥供应中断 / 全球通胀上升和增长放缓 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌和股市上涨 / 风险情绪改善
俄罗斯空袭升级 / 欧洲安全风险上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 避险情绪升温
中国GDP增长强劲 / 全球宏观信心提振 / 风险资产反弹 / 抵消部分地缘负面影响
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-putrajaya-malaysia
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-no-nuclear-weapons-negotiations-may-resume-this-weekend?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-finance-minister-says-hormuz-204128014.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQRmlydkxwa0Vfd1Fvc0JaYjdqWjhfLU13OExTZ3oxdWRIYU5Tak1TY2I2UUNXVC0tZXhNME43T1I5aTllYUpDTHNYVGZvNks1ZThvbUExb1lIWTFJRWhuNmNORjRKdlZ6OUdqS2ZJampPd3JIcGttTlZtRmhEZklfOTJWVFp5c2hj0gGOAUFVX3lxTFB4UnY2ZHZJbFBPNDdwUVFiczQ1dW1NaWxCak0xMHpxb1gtcnVHaWY2QTFDcVZoclJiNjNrbVVtVHBGOTNlczRRXzZQeTJoWS0xUWJSZnFRZG9rN0dRV3UwWGtYTjZpYWMzbFpIOGVNMkdDZS1YaTRBWmRRblI1dlZ3WkI3c3JKZ2lOZDh3ZHc?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/638507-iran-war-fertilizers-famine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/10-day-lebanon-israel-ceasefire-announced-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/f13262ef761049358c15786f1e02ef5f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/08b82853835e4380a67c6de63981ce96/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNWHpSTjlBOFZyYUZXaEdfNGNaM2NkZ0VvRktZT2paVnpJbkdWbk5PdVRkU1VUREJRbFRPVlNNRnlObEJ6Y2phV1dxVkZ3aVZ6TlRvUl9mZmQwT2haYXo2Q3UtTng1WHBBTnh6SS05UDJFVEZqdDgxOWtScWRDZENQYVBTYWxYMTVUWmZHV0FPNUVBbWczVnpTdWhfRHJmWHNLMkJGUTQ0QnRLeFpHREh4cFh2ZmUwRWR50gG-AUFVX3lxTE4ybmRKM0txaHgtcmEyZmhCZVdHcjEtTXM2bnBMdHBXSmZZY2hrLUxlaGw4bXYzbTNsTWVRRnNyeVZDYmhVZ0tnSUxTZGxPMFRTZlU3SUNkNGthUEs1UkhjbXhGWS1iMmlfUzRRNlA0YzZZN1NhSjJNdkRjd0h1RDRQd2pSNjVNZ1JmRXI0NjBuTHZ4VF9BSENBeDU
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/us-to-target-iran-linked-ships-worldwide-beyond-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-us-blockade-iranian-ports-053249833.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/us-general-clarifies-iranian-ports-under-blockade-not-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638501-pentagon-us-carmakers-weapons-production/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/105f7d3562064f4e99b35cc5fdd9723a/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/cca4a32d56a74796a5da62065ceadc15/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE10Q0lhRXhMX2hjajFNX1BFeVFWcVhlY1FjelE0b2tnUHBmUmtwMHBHeEJGdWhVQWlKcXRrZl9HOHlQUWVFd1dHSDJCa3NldEQ2dm1HZU5oeVRKaTlyRmI2a3JVbXBta3N3VmZTQ0NRWlp4LVpVZ2tNUFRRTndDUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQMHRMcmlCcHJaRmxTSTU3M2syUkZmZUNpWlhuNU5hMDFtV1FDbHZVaWJ6SnhVcnc2a0RxUDBaQWpBcTNQWmZHd0JEUzZnREZWYVlHdmxYWGRXWTBMRkJIby1jbXpIOVhvZFV0LTlDenNSMWZvdzdBWTZHX2Zvd180OHlCeWFyd0VDQVJKN2tkQklyM204ZFNj0gGcAUFVX3lxTFBlMkdFLUVmNXlCa3QwOVRyZHZCUWo0enpQV2RWYkxWWjd1a1A4QXdqQjFhOTJxZWJGaFNVMDgwQmdjZ21Ccy00UHhMMVluZTVtTEdHdzlZR09vdXA3OXNiNWd6ajVyUnQ1MjFQOW5WVkZGeW8ySzdFdlNhcGNXaXdlWjUxVS1qY2dFUnBqZXZ6UHpWU1BXbWtNaTNrVQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/hegseth-calls-on-iran-to-choose-wisely-says-us-military-locked-and-loaded?utm_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/trump-says-israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-temporary-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNOS1zX0NqaTM5Qmg3YmpLX2h0MVBNUXNGTzl5bEdtVFR5NWNzcXJveG1JLU5YS2t5QVhVd2ZZTnQtdWlvSWhIdjd5aGVnMjcxSG96Y2h5VTY4ZkNJWG0wUFlnaXFJLUVSMmVqeHdLT1RNQU1oRDNlRzl4eV9tcWxtZC1GM0xKYUoxTy1KQUttWmZUMm8?oc=5
2026-04-16
2026-04-16
进展要点
- 美股标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创历史新高，受中东乐观情绪和企业盈利鼓舞（The Korea Times、NBC News Politics报道）。
- 油价因地缘风险（伊朗威胁、霍尔木兹紧张）可能波动，关注美国制裁影响。
- 避险资产如黄金和美元需求上升，受俄乌冲突和中东紧张支撑。
- 英镑可能因英国央行鸽派立场而承压，利率预期下调。
- 股市估值可持续性存疑，投资者对地缘风险反应冷淡显示市场情绪分化。
- 能源进口国货币可能因油价上涨而面临压力。
关联路径
伊朗航运威胁 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力增加
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应风险 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求上升 / 市场波动加剧
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险溢价变化 / 风险资产（股市）与避险资产交替波动
IMF财政警告 / 政策收紧预期 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 资产价格调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / The Independent / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Ukrinform / BBC News (Top) / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ABC News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strait-of-hormuz-israel-lebanon-b2957846.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-16/10604577.shtml
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/c69fe273d1b744b2944108ca02a8801a/c.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/ukraines-zelenskyy-pursues-more-arms-deals-with-allies-to-help-check-russias-invasion?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQbHV0TWtpcXI1MGV4QlVkX2FES0hra0VSdExoT2V1Z1BqdXctZjF2VHpUYUhRRkJZS1hQekVCUzJ4RVRTSWNmcTZhaDlHUk5jdE5rZXlRNTZ6TUxYb3V2Z25XOHN1VWlrd1o0dXM2NG0yOVZvSnhLMGxQVFFYLXNOWks1UXNBNFRhYWxiTnNiYk9GaXpJaE9zSmE1bGo0d21WY25BLUhOeS0wV3BENzNRaHhR?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4113009-combined-attack-on-ukraine-air-defense-downs-20-missiles-349-drones.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5330l73y2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/us-military-turned-back-six-ships-first-24-hours-iranian-port-blockade-rcna331828
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260416030852ajh
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-the-uk-warn-the-iran-war-distracts-from-ukraine-and-oil-price-rises-help-russia/a-76797004?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-blockade-iran-talks-fail-021511400.html
- [12] https://abcnews.com/video/132069550
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/iran-warns-us-naval-blockade-threatens-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/31b1cba1e11b4a908fb2652045db2bc4/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-16/10604568.shtml
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/us/money/stock-market-today-wall-street-iran-war-b2958559.html
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/us-stocks-hit-all-time-high-on-middle-east-optimism?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-high-iran-war-rcna331900
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNMHBnOGZlNTdlN1lMMWVITElFc3FtNVdTZFA1b3k0NkU5NFFVN1Jod3gtSDRJTzJVQk5McDB2S2FKbzBTTkZQUm5OREVkQXhHbnl6UnpfLWVTVmU0cmF5NEttbHVkdGh2R3d3MjZaWUFfbEJJSGR4NWhtSGVxcTV4eE44SjRRelpPeFZ0WEZhY3lmOHlKblZyaEd0T0gwd01sNmRN0gGoAUFVX3lxTE43b1AxT0NfZTdSY2kyMGJZSkZ1Yy15R2VOQUhsVTJFYTBJU2JDRlFEbWNET1VlSDc2MUxEUHZxR1lGc0ZNTW43bTd0Vko0aFhXNDlBekdOX0F2dGlfNEpSWUo5NHpwZUVTNlVqVHBpRWQ2REVQaUItdTg5YXpISUhTdzg1aERRcHE2RHJ6OEF6eURQSkx1aFNMbE5NWF96dWt3dDJONUtueg?oc=5
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-mixed-after-trump-orders-hormuz-blockade-against-iran-145712025.html
2026-04-15
2026-04-15
进展要点
- 原油价格（WTI、布伦特）：关注91-95美元/桶区间波动，交易逻辑在“和谈预期”与“供应风险”间快速切换。
- 避险资产（黄金、美元）：地缘不确定性支撑其需求，但若谈判取得进展可能承压。
- 风险资产（美股、韩国KOSPI）：对和谈消息敏感，纳指隔夜涨2%（韩联社TV），KOSPI收复6000点（韩联社TV），但警惕局势反转。
- 半导体/科技股：作为风险偏好指标，隔夜表现强劲（英伟达连涨10天），需关注其持续性。
- 汇率（EUR/USD）：受央行政策信号及风险情绪共同影响，波动可能加大。
- 通胀预期：关注韩国进口价格飙升（环比16.1%）是否在其他依赖能源进口的经济体重现。
关联路径
美伊谈判重启预期 / 中东紧张缓解 / 油价下跌、股市上涨、避险资产承压
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突升级 / 美国封锁伊朗港口 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨、通胀预期升温 / 央行政策压力增大、风险资产承压
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油贸易受阻 / 增长预期下调（IMF）、通胀预期上调 / 滞胀风险升温
来源
Xinhua Finance / RT News / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Business) / The Korea Times / ECB Press Releases / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Fed
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/638432-israel-lebanon-forever-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415085953vI1
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr9qrnp821o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/20260415/import-prices-post-sharpest-rise-in-over-28-years-in-march-amid-middle-east-crisis?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260414~b312adeb55.en.pdf
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNenlEY3B4eEpDckI2bllJNTJVNzU1SDNMYjlPTzlpTC11UzA0TTRGUWstSnlSeWdsZURiNjBIODNxRmR6d01kbXUtUl95Q1FrSmFpOE9hQVRnZ2QzQWsyMkVnRkIxdHdrWVZqMzNfbXgza0EtZElMaHEyQlZtZzBsR1ppZWVvWWV2R2w5YUZ3ZkVWQdIBlwFBVV95cUxOb0dhOFBmYUVaMFFOMVZISkMzVWk1N2oxZmxiR3QxbjBqZlJXNlBwQ3VVX2VCdWpDbmEtMXFYcEJoYmJiVkJBMXU4bm1LemR5YzRhVHBGcDBQRzJNVkw3a2ZyRDJYSk1nZTdsRS1ZUjNab25aWG10V1RKdllNbFM3bTJ1SDhkN1J3bXlPS2dBbVVpLVRaM3VJ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/14/how-us-blockade-on-iran-will-worsen-energy-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260415/98576a4fba914ded8bf1975303f65b5b/c.html
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260414a.htm
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604150910068Su
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPZ0FvbkthQTRrQTJWUmN4N3ZBRVd5SlFwX2JVYjhEQkY4MTRRLVRVcUxYbHkwRDItOGhKcVNWbDFkOFFuSmhZcnFRTEJRU01NMnlTYjM0TUxjUTN1S0pwODFoZno0Q0pta0FqMl9mQ2U3Qm1qdHJwdG5sSENtVGw0dHNVT0I4Y0RRak5iWWNzTGVqZ3FxYVlIVQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-during-hormuz-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638423-russia-lavrov-china-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260415/us-iran-may-resume-talks-this-week-despite-port-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415065334Y9r
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063604GEG
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415064308ULl
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415062259Y0J
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415064537UqS
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063507Wuh
2026-04-14
2026-04-14
进展要点
- 原油价格因供应风险飙升，实物原油逼近每桶150美元
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格可能上行
- 美元因避险情绪可能走强，但受地缘政治影响波动
- 全球股市面临下行压力，特别是能源依赖型经济体
- 债券市场可能反映通胀担忧和避险需求
- 航运成本上升影响能源和贸易相关板块
关联路径
美国封锁伊朗港口 / 霍尔木兹海峡石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加
中国经济数据积极 / 信贷增长 / 局部市场情绪改善，但被全球风险抵消
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/trump-says-us-military-has-blockaded-iranian-ports-to-pressure-tehran?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260414075312mTn
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9lTGVSaGRfSFNsX1ByeERMLWoxdWREdGtBVXNaQy1EeUdZeU9RSVZYY1UxcVh6NzRadndia294eTlGbUtLOVl3N2wySTZ6aVZlMWtjRmlWNF9rVG81NDltb2ZJTU9QWVRGS1JaUUlPaHNZdjA?oc=5
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/trump-says-iranian-ships-will-be-eliminated-as-us-naval-blockade-begins?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260413/9b39653c127e47d3aa204c72aa1d20fb/c.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/638355-us-israeli-war-poverty-un/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-enforce-blockade-gulf-115534084.html
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-maritime-restrictions-increase-economic-pressure-on-iran/a-76760110?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260413/42286c72c63d41fba01b7147f7cb9dd5/c.html
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/physical-oil-hits-fresh-record-high-near-150-a-barrel-as-hormuz-crisis-worsens?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413235728qQL
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/energy-prices-rise-despite-jones-act-suspension-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638318-iran-israel-us-war-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-passenger-plane-destroyed-us-154212642.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-warns-iran-ships-to-steer-clear-of-blockade/live-76758809?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE90S1NYeU1HLWdoVmJNRXQtb2t2cUxuc1JObDV0bmlLbXVTZTM5Qko0YmVJZk1hZUxoeG5hUmNpZzVPdzdFS1JEdTNHSWFiNUFOZnQzQ1dxd2hQVzFCamdEb0tmTWtSUE9ZZ0U3TEJkdFNXWTQwaEtUTm90MnhvYVU?oc=5
2026-04-13
2026-04-13
进展要点
- 原油（布伦特/WTI）：关注能否站稳100美元上方，及对110-120美元阻力区的测试。
- 黄金：作为传统避险资产，在突破历史高位后有望进一步上行，关注2300-2400美元/盎司区间。
- 美元指数（DXY）：避险需求及潜在的“通胀-加息”预期可能继续支撑美元走强。
- 美股：能源板块受益，但整体市场因利率担忧和风险情绪恶化而承压，科技股尤其敏感。
- 美国国债：收益率曲线可能因通胀预期（长端上行）与避险需求（短端下行）而呈现复杂变化。
关联路径
地缘军事冲突（封锁） / 石油供应物理中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策转鹰 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊对峙升级 / 地区安全风险溢价飙升 / 全球避险情绪主导 / 资金流入美元、美债、黄金 / 风险资产遭抛售
能源危机与通胀担忧 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 消费者信心受挫 / 全球经济衰退风险增加 / 周期性股票和大宗商品（除能源外）走弱
单边军事行动引发国际秩序动荡 / 长期投资信心受损 & 供应链重组加速 / 全球增长前景蒙阴 / 市场波动率（VIX）持续高位
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413082525uXU
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/13/iran-war-live-us-military-to-block-iranian-port-traffic-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260412-trump-orders-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-13/10602662.shtml
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-says-it-will-start-blockade-of-all-ships-going-to-and-from-iran-on-monday/article70855422.ece
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-armee-americaine-annonce-un-blocus-naval-de-tous-les-ports-iraniens-a-partir-de-lundi-apres-midi_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Praesident-Trump-kuendigt-Blockade-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-an-id30705712.html
- [8] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-12/trump-anuncia-su-propio-bloqueo-naval-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-y-las-negociaciones-quedan-en-el-aire.html
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-strait-of-hormuz-naval-blockade/live-76750859?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/strait-to-crisis-trump-orders-hormuz-blockage-after-talks-sink/articleshow/130210828.cms
- [11] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/12/69dbaae6fc6c83b0518b4570.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/trump-announces-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz-after-iran-talks-collapse-over-nuclear-demands-133605926.html
- [13] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=200747
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn781z4lgg4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-abc-news-breakfast-36
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413075746ide
- [17] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-ordonne-un-blocus-du-detroit-d-ormuz-et-menace-les-soutiens-de-l-iran-apres-l-echec-des-negociations_6676633_3210.html
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260412-trump-says-us-will-begin-blockading-the-strait-of-hormuz
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/12/trump-announces-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-after-us-iran-peace-talks-end?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-12
2026-04-12
进展要点
- 石油：霍尔木兹海峡紧张推升油价，关注供应中断风险
- 黄金：避险需求增加，金价可能上涨
- 美元：避险情绪支撑美元走强
- 股市：地缘风险加剧，全球股市承压，尤其是能源和避险板块
- 汇率：风险货币如新兴市场货币可能下跌
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘紧张升级 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 风险资产抛售
军事行动加剧 / 石油供应中断 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场波动加大
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412091323e3R
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/12/iran-war-live-historic-face-to-face-talks-with-us-continue-in-islamabad?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens/article70852336.ece
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-pause-for-now-disagreements-remain?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602264.shtml
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-negociations-entre-teheran-et-washington-se-poursuivent-toute-tentative-de-navires-militaires-de-franchir-le-detroit-d-ormuz-fera-l-objet-d-une-reaction-severe-menacent-les-gardiens-de-la-revolution_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-usa-islamabad-strasse-hormus
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426624
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iran-hold-historic-direct-negotiations-in-pakistan-as-wars-fragile-ceasefire-holds
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260411-washington-affirme-commencer-le-d%C3%A9minage-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/navy-tests-hormuz-blockade-expert-172203991.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4111582-dva-korabli-vms-ssa-pocali-rozminuvanna-ormuzkoi-protoki-cnn.html
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-irans-marine-warnt-us-kriegsschiff-vor-durchquerung-a-e7da4550-99e4-4487-b95d-6815467ea8a6
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412090741Hbt
- [16] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens?utm_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260411-iran-us-negotiations-underway-in-pakistan-us-says-strait-of-hormuz-being-cleared
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/numbers-us-thrashed-military-targets-103019697.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/11/en-direct-benyamin-netanyahou-soutient-qu-israel-a-aneanti-les-programmes-nucleaire-et-balistique-iraniens-les-etats-unis-affirment-que-deux-de-leurs-navires-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz_6676633_3210.html
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602257.shtml
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
进展要点
- 油价：受中东和俄乌供应风险支撑，可能进一步上涨。
- 黄金：避险需求推动价格上涨，关注地缘事件进展。
- 美元：作为避险货币，在避险情绪中走强。
- 股市：面临地缘政治和通胀压力，风险偏好下降。
- 债券：加息预期升温，收益率可能上行。
- 外汇：避险货币如美元和日元受益，风险货币承压。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 加息预期
地缘紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
美国CPI超预期 / 美联储政策收紧 / 全球资产波动
贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求上升 / 市场情绪谨慎
来源
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
参考链接
- [1] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4111356-invaders-strike-highrise-in-sumy-with-drone-casualties-reported.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/10/us-iran-negotiations-in-islamabad-what-to-expect?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260410-iran-sets-preconditions-ahead-of-ceasefire-talks-as-vance-warns-tehran-not-to-play-us
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPQ2d4akxuNWFVSkhyeUJpOHlJdExpc2ZkVW44NjNiVGJjdExCV3Nnam1iUklTTndtQ0xQOFB4UFA2VEtnX2lmSElETWxIeFpBQXdyQlR0NXBRNHZiWDN4ZHhINnRLSjhHdWNHMnlubmR5VWxpOUFuM1NtVkFCVENOMUlR?oc=5
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/trump-s-latest-global-tariffs-challenged-in-federal-court-friday
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-malgre-l-annonce-d-une-treve-pascale-le-service-de-securite-d-ukraine-appelle-la-population-a-rester-vigilante_6676836_3210.html
- [7] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-10/los-ultimos-ataques-israelies-en-libano-y-el-bloqueo-irani-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-ponen-en-peligro-las-negociaciones-de-paz.html
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-kyjiws-truppen-attackieren-russische-oelterminals-a-d4e9f8b2-892e-464c-9f38-5e258e66d585
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-are-loading-warships-with-best-weapons-trump-hints-at-big-op-if-iran-us-talks-fail/articleshow/130175216.cms
- [10] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-friday-10-april-2026-b2955434.html
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/05d6312f9e134201bb0b6f53f49d0ddf/c.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/10/new-tensions-emerge-before-us-iran-war-ceasefire-talks-in-pakistan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQN2p1TmlnSW85azJoOTM2MXFtSjNHS1RpN2piNXBkeUVGdHpORnd6TGkwVVJKTGh3UTc0dVY1d0NzaUJ4bzZqNXJ0QVJkaUFjNDZpRmdrWjd1UTV4eXNFTHhwUFFxSHBaVU82RVBDaWtieGxGNnMxVnMxbU80aUo1SGd3U2hMUUlyaWc1LWJyZXVDZ0VDVFhQdFUzd0dwSWRuS01ral9NS2U1RkE2NlN4cE5sNS0?oc=5
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-le-president-du-parlement-iranien-exige-un-cessez-le-feu-au-liban-et-le-deblocage-des-actifs-avant-toute-negociation_6676633_3210.html
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260410-us-and-iran-prepare-for-ceasefire-talks-as-netanyahu-authorises-negotiations-with-lebanon
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/inflation-trump-iran-war-usa-b2955258.html
- [17] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/sensex-jumps-919pts-as-west-asia-peace-plan-moves-ahead/articleshow/130182187.cms
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
进展要点
- 油价：美伊停火后暴跌，但供应链中断风险支撑布伦特和WTI价格在95美元/桶以上。
- 股市：风险偏好上升，全球股指可能反弹，关注能源和避险板块轮动。
- 黄金：地缘风险缓解，避险需求下降，金价承压，但仍受通胀支撑。
- 外汇：美元可能因风险偏好上升而走弱，欧元受能源危机影响波动。
- 利率：油价下跌缓解通胀，央行政策预期偏向鸽派，国债收益率或下行。
- 大宗商品：铝、钢、铜受美国进口限制影响，价格可能上涨。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌 / 股市上涨 / 避险资产需求下降
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
俄乌停火 / 地区紧张缓解 / 避险需求下降 / 风险资产反弹 / 欧元稳定
特朗普贸易政策 / 全球贸易紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 美元走强 / 大宗商品承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5776818/wall-street-stocks-oil-trump-iran-ceasefire
- [2] https://unn.ua/news/putin-oholosyv-velykodnie-peremyria-z-ukrainoiu
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-us-war-west-asia-conflict-live-updates-on-april-9-2026/article70840935.ece
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/d037e456c7be42ed80a590404ec1bdde/c.html
- [5] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/strait-hormuz-shipping-traffic-effectively-standstill-iran-ceasefire-rcna267391
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260410000451315
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410083045iUE
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/this-is-america/2026/4/9/us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-over-whats-next?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/637877-iran-war-eu-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.dw.com/de/waffenruhe-trump-stellt-annäherung-mit-iran-in-aussicht/a-76701125?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-10/10601269.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxOUG43N0U2MXF3b3RKdnkwaTRPeDZhWm1QZjJBYUhyMHB1N0pRdFgxaXZMWGFwT2dSSHFiRHFhdFZEQm14UVc5RlRaclNSR0dHS2I3ei1IeVE1b2NRUjE5NDNqd01SQ1lyTUZZam5WbmI0NlEzNmdTWUxFaWhSdmxzQndlYk1aOTFITHdISHB4RWZQTVlnZnMwLVhTV1RWUFFvSkdlUlNaeUYxMl9qRG9TdThRWGFieDJISndiei1UTGczUkxYYTBOTW1RNA?oc=5
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/f1a5072f1da04bd588110bf9c7bb5a9f/c.html
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4110989-putin-announces-easter-ceasefire.html
- [15] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/04/09/2026-06960/strengthening-actions-taken-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-steel-and-copper-into-the-united-states
- [16] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-pohodyvsia-na-velykodnie-peremyria-yake-oholosyv-putin-ta-zaiavyv-pro-hotovnist-do-dzerkalnykh-krokiv
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/putin-declares-ceasefire-in-ukraine-for-orthodox-easter/article70844673.ece
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/be450cc8cf7d4952b19e8c0e2a8b768d/c.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410080207ixS
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/637873-america-has-reached-limits/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-09
2026-04-09
进展要点
- 油价波动加剧，关注海峡通航情况
- 美元指数下跌，欧元和英镑走强
- 美股强劲反弹，风险偏好上升
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加
- 利率市场对美联储政策反应
- 全球能源供应链紧张
关联路径
海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策响应
美伊谈判 / 地缘风险缓解 / 油价下跌和风险资产上涨
美元下跌 / 全球流动性改善 / 股市上涨
北约解体风险 / 地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/c45d7601476d458ea57a85851efbc952/c.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600672.shtml
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637771-us-isral-iran-ceasefire-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQM0M4QVNLMzRVZGI1YTVINHdJUWZFYU5DbEs5NjBxNVNkXzU2YUw0VDNlMXE3NTg2ZTRucjRaLXVBc19aaTF5RTA5Q1ZFOTlpZ2NYVUpqUFhMMERzRW5SdVV5dzUyajZLaVowRFR6WTM0Sks5MFFsb3NlYnRyR1lsTUdLaVBsejlaamtFcEUtODZHcjk4cjBIa2tnekhrZWpFTDlj?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260409070324dDx
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/trump-administration-says-it-is-mulling-nato-withdrawal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/4294f804a81c42af86e0af9172b98888/c.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/04-09/10600695.shtml
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/65e4ed07bbbd4ed4a2d01a8c03640431/c.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/637763-why-iran-looks-winner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQUllNR1JLdmFuV2FFOTVNQVc0UEFwWkhtbXVxTEJFcVA0bWVKenJJYWlRSElYaDU1WDg4VkVJajZiQ1hNd0d5VWFPNE40YlZYYWhPN0Z5TnZsbksydlplVmU1VWc0Ulc5cEd6MTk0MzhCSWZPX0ViQWc5eldQTUNiMlFmbWRpbC1hWDBRallTeFNsTUpHOWh6Wk0yT0FxOEcta1Y2WWl3?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/8/trump-has-found-his-iran-off-ramp-but-at-what-cost?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/fae39f2b949e4afd9c1d92b275cbc5f2/c.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-09/10600691.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600689.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600685.shtml
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/560122b87c614361b1028d6d3d7c9d1d/c.html
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c1abc49b173845e99a5c8994d1391518/c.html
- [19] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/e435b5af7fff443c85477fa3acb93775/c.html
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c7c27550cf9147f6845906a92171ec14/c.html
2026-04-08
2026-04-08
进展要点
- 原油（WTI/Brent）：隔夜因停火消息下跌，但需警惕地缘风险溢价仍在，支撑位看冲突前水平。
- 黄金：避险需求随局势缓和而减退，但若谈判遇挫将迅速获得支撑。
- 美元：作为避险货币吸引力短期下降，但美国相对稳定的基本面仍提供支撑。
- 美股：地缘风险缓解利好风险情绪，但需关注利率与盈利等基本面驱动。
- 美债：避险需求减弱可能令收益率曲线陡峭化，关注通胀预期变化。
关联路径
中东冲突烈度 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航状况 / 全球石油实际供应与预期 / 油价 / 全球通胀与央行政策路径
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘政治风险溢价 / 全球避险情绪 / 黄金、美元、国债等资产价格
冲突外溢风险 / 区域稳定与全球贸易通道安全 / 供应链成本与全球增长预期 / 周期性资产表现
美国内政治对伊政策分歧 / 政策连贯性与可信度 / 美元资产长期吸引力与风险溢价
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOQWdMR2RQZEpSSnE3R1BPd1dPVVNvX21tYjhCbFZjcVJRMkozZVFxc3NKUFZid19fMTBZR2Zia3lhbmtLbDlXV21fSERfY3JNYkhEMktlNHZKVXdzaEk4UGlkcDBienpZWjl2OHpwQW9pRnBBaUh2aU5sQlBsVlNkM1FLLVowRXB4WFhWc2g3dmQxYjZzelJzNWhXRlROZjFmN2psUkJWbS1NcHF0?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260408000339Jrv
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637586-us-strikes-irans-kharg-island-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8433834/as-israel-serang-pulau-kharg-hingga-jembatan-di-iran-jelang-deadline-trump
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600068.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/d18e8a525d8f4ff289dc27c811313025/c.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/7/trump-agrees-to-pause-attacks-on-iran-if-strait-of-hormuz-opens?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4110231-slidom-za-ssa-izrail-tez-pogodivsa-na-dva-tizni-pripiniti-bojovi-dii-proti-iranu-cnn.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/08/irans-aussenminister-kuendigt-oeffnung-der-strasse-von-hormus-an
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r40y3rv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/iran-war-trump-us-israel-oil-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-announces-two-week-ceasefire/live-76700191?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604072357426WW
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600071.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxPTm1PeUtWSkM2Q01OaUZfME5YM3F4WDNnVXQtT01LQUFWbGNEWkF6ZjZDdWNsNDQ0bFBybUxhSEo5UUV0Vm1TS3BhUXNGWDZXOXJzNXRLODVqd2Z4aURvRTFqRGZDSWhLeEUyVmk5X0tqZGRfWDFvd005cXpoYUNLWFJjeU1lRkx5bmZOdHgzcjB2U0Z6SnE4Z3VSdUlWMmhYX2lVaA?oc=5
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/797d2505268b4defb0b9a7e2b0e8ddf3/c.html
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8434046/trump-tangguhkan-serangan-dewan-keamanan-iran-tangan-kita-di-pelatuk
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/trump-iran-2-week-ceasefire.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/637638-trump-iran-ceacefire-extension/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-07
2026-04-07
进展要点
- 石油（WTI/布伦特）：因地缘风险飙升，关注100美元/桶上方压力。
- 黄金：避险需求推动价格上涨，关键阻力位在每盎司2,200美元。
- 美元：避险货币地位强化，兑新兴市场货币走强。
- 美国国债：收益率下行，避险资金流入。
- 股票：全球股市承压，能源股受益但整体风险偏好下降。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀加剧 / 央行政策收紧 / 经济增长放缓
美伊谈判破裂 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油价飙升 / 避险资产需求上升 / 股市下跌
乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设施 / 欧洲能源危机恶化 / 欧元区通胀压力 / 欧央行政策响应
伊朗内部不稳定 / 地区冲突扩散 / 石油生产国风险溢价上升 / 大宗商品波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260407000106tbx
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-wFBVV95cUxNZFFCRlBwWHNqMUpxQWFwUTVHS3Jld3BVY2ExUFNJRDNUWUx2X3FpM1dtX3dfQ1hzaEhVejlGcDZSa2hVRjZuZnNOTXFudEM4dUFlRHJWWE1PV2lfTFpoMlVCVl91ZWdEZHZPY2E4V3h3dEh6UzhoQ1JRd01DM3BsYjZLbTVDWmM5YmU0eFB0LWNINTVlenFMS0wxZ1RnZFF3U25XdlZqeGlhbzlmN3Y1c3hoYzctcHVGV05zN2hCLUJZcFBFazJzLWNkemt5d0dzdE50amU3M3NobllWTjVlTkd3UXpBbENOM3lPajMwN0xocGxPcDlEMXp0QQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599509.shtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/where-are-irans-power-plants-that-trump-has-threatened-to-destroy?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/637429-iran-night-demonstrations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5514373/irgc-selat-hormuz-tak-akan-pernah-kembali-ke-kondisi-sebelumnya
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-madschid-chademi-geheimdienstchef-revolutionsgarden
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4109748-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-novorossiysk-oil-terminal-and-be12-amphibious-aircraft.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224226NBH
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQMnpFd1FWT0JmYXNZMmd5MTVzdm84bnEtS1N3Wm44a0Nrb2NCV2NXeG5DY2hsSWJYYWFFYjB5SksyMWNfdEJPQXhka1hDTGxPUGQzaWNVSEd1bkt4UWJUTEFsTEJFeDhiT1ZTT0dRejV6M2NfMTh6TWxDN2M5YU85UWR3aFU3Q2RpcTRQTHZyYnBMT3hIMk5jdnlvMHphWFUyZXZvMU5YS1I1V3JlOVQ3S1RR0gG3AUFVX3lxTFBTWEEtS0pNcGZsWUdRUHVDQlJLSVJMM0gtc3ZZWldYOHZ3b1l6QUltMjlNcXBKbUxIVlFDQi1PUjd4WnFmWFp3aFZCemhwcEtVdnJsX1ppeGZGUjFtTXAzUkw1Ql9RYS0xc1J3VnFDREFxbmgtcGctQjBTWC04RXNsRWFIZk9hYm5Wa0NDM0NmdndsamxjXy1FakpSYW5hQTk
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5514365/as-israel-serang-30-universitas-di-iran-sejak-awal-konflik-28-februari
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/ukraine-strikes-russian-black-sea-energy-hub-novorossiysk?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599512.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406235051YOT
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260407000948Iak
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPeEtPRS00QThJQ3gxWUM1MXpENklRekdZWTlsZ1l0ejN6NFlwaVZ5RG9HdmdoQmxBalFHM1FlRWZfS3BMLURnSS1sc2VOUXF2OW03S3lYSW5vb0ZRVVdmX29FUkNSd3MtVzJoWjRmd2laVW13R0xCam9ESTRmZDZtUWtvcTBXaDBrVWVwWTFPOUEtT1M3MzRIS1hnTG1BMEFrX0VqRXR5azRzQlBxZm15eFktTFVYYk9lVTFoR1Vab3R0STdoLXc?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR2JlSVpraHJZeDN5MFFBOHRMLWk0VEt5NEFPSnVwa1pCTHI0eDJ3Q0tiREdpSzRGYmlCcm9wQ3pDX3lkVHZGejYwMGxDYXVnZU5OMFBEYTIyc3RDRTBWNnpfQ0phb1NMM2Nrd3JJWkw3QkVKX3J1LVRPZUZSTGtJNUhYNlBPYjBQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/6/in-maps-and-photos-five-iranian-civilian-bridges-at-risk-of-us-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224344Cz8
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxQYkg1WnlBNjRXLXdHclNNd1pyRi10LUt6VlF1TDB0UHdqUF9FYUhFQjVmZ0doQ2prUnBBYUk4a3JjalFxYjUyZmEyVk4zejR3ZDlERnM0RTJfbVVQaHBkbjYtV1VpMkRKeEYtVmdWeEh4Y3pKYjNIZ0o1WXNSMzVjU2VQc1MzUFNrUEpQS2Zacmxod1Z0LUllVUd0c3FuSUp4QWxSMFVPY21tYTI4elBMSm0yTlN1WU1L0gG-AUFVX3lxTE1sU2pETk50dU5nclhCYndfWllvTXkxNk9lcjFHdnJJclItU2hUWUlMWXRBSW96R3lNdW9fSTVNaEVuZTF5cWJacjNFMWc3b1J4RFhNZGRXS0lmRjBIWENVQnFkUXJySWI5SmR6cXozVWMyYWRTZDNyTDhZMEt0YWlZajJ0UGdGaE1IRGJMckRjYzdtTnhWclc3bXR
2026-04-06
2026-04-06
进展要点
- 油价因霍尔木兹海峡风险和伊朗袭击而上涨，布伦特原油可能测试高位。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，价格可能因中东紧张而攀升。
- 美元可能因避险资金流入而走强，但石油美元流动复杂化。
- 全球股市，尤其是能源和防御性板块，将受地缘政治风险影响。
- 债券收益率可能因避险情绪而下降，但通胀预期推高长期利率。
关联路径
伊朗冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀上升
美伊军事对抗 / 中东不稳定 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 供应增加预期 / 油价波动 / 风险资产调整
地缘政治紧张 / 全球增长担忧 / 股市下跌和债券收益率下降
来源
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406075350GcU
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/05/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-donald-trump-repousse-l-ultimatum-adresse-a-mardi-soir-vous-allez-voir-des-ponts-et-des-centrales-electriques-s-effondrer-a-travers-tout-le-pays_6676633_3210.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-04/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/6/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-trumps-tuesday-deadline-on-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9xQUhSalZYRUpHRTR4a1dtUktxeU5ULTRnNS1vR0RONkxhaTNFZzBwOVBQbTk5Y2QxbkJoczlnaWZBcmdkWlN1cEI3WWN6T2U1ZFRwYnVUZDBWZw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4109433-tramp-ogolosiv-novij-krajnij-termin-dla-iranu-sob-rozblokuvati-ormuzku-protoku.html
- [7] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13b44e4d4d89b5e8b4587.html
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426028
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/opec-foerderung-erdoel-iran-krise
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599292.shtml
- [11] https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story?id=131744086
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0q6wdzp1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/ofitsialno-ukraina-nanesla-udar-po-zavodu-lukoila-bolee-chem-v-1000-km-ot-linii-soprikosnoveniya
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406091907xC4
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNa0YxRFgzNTB6RTIxbVFKbURISmpWM2R4Y1N0VUlzamhJQjU0dUdyU1YyMmJIRHpiREoxSzJlN0hFanE0OENZcWZ4WUtRVnhVRmtLb011eGxIWFd4bUd0eGhXdUptaVFjOC1sWTdsWnF3ZkdKQjdLallNZXVsOGM5SFRtVmtEWkdCRE5jcnlBU0htNndib0V0aGtXUmtIRGpiQU5pZFJJaENtWFVzZXlCX0VoZHFBdThxZHozSUR3RzhBZGM?oc=5
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13870e9cf4a79038b457f.html
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/donald-trump-iran-ultimatum-hormus
2026-04-05
2026-04-05
进展要点
- 油价（如WTI、Brent）因中东供应风险上涨。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格面临上行压力。
- 美元可能因避险情绪走强，尤其对风险货币。
- 股市（尤其是科技股）受贸易紧张和地缘风险影响，波动加剧。
- 关注美国通胀数据发布，预计因地缘冲突首次飙升。
- 债券市场可能因避险需求而收益率下行。
- 大宗商品如原油和黄金成为市场焦点。
- 伊朗击落美国与以色列的2架战斗机和3架无人机，导致中东地区紧张局势进一步升级，美以与伊朗之间的冲突持续未见缓和迹象。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
贸易制裁 / 全球供应链风险 / 股市波动
国防支出增加 / 财政赤字扩大 / 利率压力
来源
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/watch-trump-claims-many-of-irans-military-leaders-killed-in-massive-strike-shares-video/articleshow/130029871.cms
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598980.shtml
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPOTB5bHJDZGp3M2ZVSUpJeGZnTDFvOGFhMDh6ODlDTlotQnlwVnJ4d1lPZTZCSV9CblY3V1hSeEFpOGZHVWViUEJYeVVPc0h2d3UwOUN0YXJTMG1fWm8xOTRhOG1Ld3U1eWdZY0RvX1VhbDB6RWRSZzh2YnJ6M05JQWVzMWRHWFdWQUtVdExRcU9jZ0ZPUDhJaDJkTGJIVXBFLUU3TXpaakpfSFVYOWFxYzVlTW5KTEk1ek9Zc3ZuVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429643/hari-kelam-as-israel-saat-2-jet-tempur-dan-3-drone-dilumpuhkan-iran
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/ataque-de-israel-a-petroqumicas-no-ir-deixa-ao-menos-cinco-mortos-e-170-feridos.ghtml
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-proposes-expanding-chinese-141748633.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y90jl8veyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/04/inflacao-dos-eua-deve-disparar-na-primeira-leitura-desde-a-guerra-com-o-ira.ghtml
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260404-trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-a-deal-as-search-continues-for-missing-us-pilot
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/4/tehran-psychiatric-hospital-not-usable-after-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-deal-or-face-hell/article70824622.ece
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/white-house-asks-record-breaking-15-trillion-defense/story?id=131683487
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598976.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNWkNya1ZKR25aN2tadGxuN25YX3JyY29KTGprQXpPY3ZydVBaUmdjRFdCWko4NnE1QUp5d2V6UFM3TkZRZG5ZZ1RHeUgzT1ZxS0RkcnFfcW42LTlId2xUWXNKcW9JX1BHR1pwWFEwVWNZdjMxV1FUNnI1R2V0N0ZreElnSnFVZGhXbFBVSGdERFlnSVB5NHk2UmFkeE5ZRjI3MFQ0?oc=5
- [15] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/nova-etapa-de-ataques-dos-eua-ao-ira-deve-usar-quase-todo-o-estoque-de-misseis-de-cruzeiros-disponivel-no-pais.ghtml
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/universities-hit-as-us-israel-ramp-up-attacks-on-irans-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429487/tuan-rumah-pangkalan-militer-as-dapat-ultimatum-dari-iran
- [18] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/israel-se-prepara-para-atacar-instalaes-de-energia-do-ir-e-aguarda-aprovao-dos-eua-diz-fonte.ghtml
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2k1dgz142o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-04-04
2026-04-04
进展要点
- 石油价格可能上涨，因伊朗袭击科威特炼油厂和霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致的供应中断风险。
- 黄金和美元可能受益于避险需求，地缘紧张推高安全资产。
- 美国股市可能受冲突和加息预期双重影响，波动性增加。
- 外汇市场：美元走强，受就业数据支持和避险需求推动。
- 债券收益率可能上升，因美联储加息预期。
- 全球经济放缓担忧加剧，可能打压风险资产，如新兴市场股市。
- 伊朗击落一架美军战机，并袭击了科威特的石油设施，同时美国威胁升级对伊朗的打击，导致地区紧张局势加剧。
- 美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨和避险需求
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球贸易中断 / 经济放缓和市场避险
美国就业数据强劲 / 美联储加息预期 / 美元升值
地缘紧张 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/637187-iran-war-us-oil-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758305/iran-gulf-targets-us-israel-strike-war
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/03/inteligncia-dos-eua-alerta-que-improvvel-que-ir-reduza-bloqueio-de-ormuz-em-breve-dizem-fontes.ghtml
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNTXZ4cTczUHBOZUIxaEcyYTBrOEF3bm1YZ2RyLVVRNGl6N2pKdElTWHZQN1Zyd3FyS2E4Ym9fZTBTUzYtSnRvaC00ZzRYcWVkRHV4T0lRUml0cndLeFZYanN5N3ZveXJweXFMZXVsN2VvZkJWQUJGeWxIa3JXbWZEd3hqYmJNXzN4MWdISm9qcGNsZGtf?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-04/10598639.shtml
- [6] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/03/69cff685e9cf4a23268b4578.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/3/will-force-be-used-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108963-vdalosa-vratuvati-odnogo-z-pilotiv-amerikanskogo-vinisuvaca-zbitogo-nad-iranom-zmi.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260404015744gyX
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cly68eg7px6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-fighter-jet-iran-raf-b1277613.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-one-downed-us-fighter-jet-pilot-rescued/live-76649854?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://elpais.com/mexico/2026-04-03/estados-unidos-suma-inesperadamente-178000-puestos-de-trabajo-en-marzo.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/3/survivors-of-iran-bridge-attack-recall-terror-of-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNV2k3RzVva0hYbF9UM20yYzBfaVlBOHRVQ1BSQ3NWUU54MlJFM0M4WHRoUm1zSThjUVlxZTNKSnEwNzNlZklDT0RhSVJzanlJdDNoLXNDcGdYT2RxMVZsVTIyUVRJZUZ2Z2xSdm9WVEtvM1dfSkJuV19uQ25HTGNRZ3JaSDVWb1ljQ0EyNg?oc=5
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10598635.shtml
- [17] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758492/iran-us-fighter-jet
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4108911-polsa-pidijmala-vinisuvaci-cerez-rosijskij-masovanij-obstril-ukraini.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403235949ayF
2026-04-03
2026-04-03
进展要点
- 石油：纽约原油期货涨超11%至111.54美元/桶，关注霍尔木兹海峡风险
- 黄金：避险需求上升，价格可能因中东紧张而上涨
- 美元：避险货币属性增强，但贸易逆差改善或提供支撑
- 股市：全球风险情绪恶化，能源股受益但整体市场承压
- 汇率：欧元受欧盟能源危机担忧拖累，日元可能因避险走强
- 利率：通胀预期上升，债券收益率或面临上行压力
- 大宗商品：铝和铜受美国关税调整影响，价格波动增加
- 能源股：油价上涨利好石油公司，但地缘风险限制涨幅
关联路径
伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡干扰 / 石油供应减少 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀上升
美国加征药品关税 / 贸易紧张加剧 / 供应链中断 / 避险情绪升温 / 股市下跌
中东冲突升级 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
制裁讨论 / 航运风险 / 能源成本上升 / 经济增长放缓 / 央行政策调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/2/oil-shock-triggers-global-price-spikes-as-iran-war-drags-on?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260403090743K1l
- [3] https://globalnews.ca/news/11757640/donald-trump-tariffs-pharmacutical-drugs-steel-aluminum-copper
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d0md89v2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10597911.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWkhISW1vdTUyWGpsZXhEVXNmeXJxbEVIeFFsaGcwY01WWmRiaUZHYUJ3TE5zX0s3OUZIVmY4dGNkNFIxZ2wtd2tFWV9vdWg3TkttWGZBTWYxcklKNk90VE1uZHhkS0ZyX1JvYTdmYUtsQVlSWEoyc004NmhSTWlNcmx6SVlrUTVx?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/637100-orban-eu-ditch-russia-sanctions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260403/662cabeae8c34e56b0bd2499be4bf50c/c.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-04/usa-zoelle-donald-trump-arzneimittel-stahl
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/02/trump-says-us-destroyed-irans-tallest-bridge-tehran-attacks-american-fighter-jets-at-jordan-airbase
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4108544-un-secretarygeneral-warns-world-on-edge-of-wider-war.html
- [12] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/liberation-day-one-year-later-protecting-american-jobs-and-delivering-greater-market-access-american
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3425775
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yvette-cooper-iran-foreign-secretary-strait-of-hormuz-tehran-b1277524.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403091250TSJ
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/trump-unveils-100-percent-tariff-on-drugs-to-push-for-pharmaceutical-deals?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-03/10597907.shtml
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/02/100-prozent-auf-arznei-us-regierung-erhebt-neue-zoelle
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQczRQTWhBdHIxRWliUHFoUElFTUZPR19PTC1DbG0xN01sOWpKWmFtQkxnZ2NZMkMxMTlSSm8tZ3dsRi05bWNtOWl3R05ORTN4LTQwVXAtVnI1OWY0Y0JSU1dTaFh3d0xKZGh0ekdiOWJBOVUwSm40QUc5LTFvV3hGem4zcTNRZGpMUGQzMEo1b3hiLUtwQWw0WGxWUzlzTFVNdlBnaEV3MmQxWlBSaXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlg4ejJxSEZqeUlZX1RaNmdJc21NWXRwUXFLRV8yWGJZc0hTblBoa1hEY0ZmV2FiNzI1S1BDTGdxaUl5RUR6YVpoMGZ5cUJscWJlbS1OcE1BN1FXVTFBSU1Ubm5ycVQxeGZfbUR3aHl0ekZOS0NrYXFWVVc5TXotY2FITFFHSWM5cmxzVWxXT2IwSVdFb0EzQi1BcEF2dEhwX3Y2V1V
- [20] https://globalnews.ca/news/11756857/gas-prices-easter-long-weekend
2026-04-02
2026-04-02
进展要点
- 油价波动性高，布伦特原油可能围绕100美元/桶上下震荡
- 黄金和美元作为避险资产需求上升，价格可能继续上涨
- 欧洲股市受地缘风险影响，开盘上涨但后续或承压
- 美国股市对特朗普讲话敏感，可能因风险情绪波动
- 外汇市场：美元兑避险货币（如日元、瑞郎）可能走强
- 债券市场：避险需求推动国债收益率下降
- 商品市场：天然气价格因供应冲击持续上涨
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
特朗普北约言论 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动
能源危机 / 西方经济衰退风险 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
俄乌冲突外溢 / 地缘风险加剧 / 黄金和美元上涨
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/2/iran-war-live-trump-to-address-nation-tehran-denies-seeking-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/33177de39fe3445f9a61ae9037bade69/c.html
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260401/9c763c423582452e84358382a1d6fbf7/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78l70g124jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/5c76f8eba9eb47b092d05f092929af41/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/e724e267b7fe4019b374dadc569c27b4/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/a2fef62739bd4b41a0bea9e0cf206c9a/c.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2489v97842o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-signals-iran-war-could-end-soon-but-gives-mixed-signals-on-how
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-zrobyv-zaiavu-shchodo-vykhodu-ssha-z-nato
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/sohodni-dovoli-nasychenyi-dyplomatychnyi-den-zelenskyi-nazvav-masovanu-ataku-rf-rosiiskoiu-vidpoviddiu-na-dyplomatiiu
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE4xb3ZESG5sSVBvUldEcWdRUXVkc3d0QmtzTkJNOVR2bWl4MGVxZVNmQWhROEhoVEVvYkFYdVFUajBzaWFPc2w4RHNaY2t6WDM5bmo3SUdWV3U4NzFjcjA3OEp6UnEyV1ZlUEZ1YWpwaV83VXkzQjl0Z3F4eXNtQ1E?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQbXpVX3k4YXdlNko5NE1jZkFoRGNnTXVGcnhPbDJ1dXdoQVBLeml2bmRKMEhuUXhzTzhoZ2Nuck12ZWg5Ti1jaVpXNjI0dHVsdnpNaGZUejU1V1FWaFUyRjJQUFE5cktuMDhoVFhYcy1wbWRYLWRsc0dURDlHa0Y2RTBHQ2FVSGg1VGE3amVKbXRqczBKT3ZyY0Zrc2pZeWhoVnpz0gGoAUFVX3lxTE9Tc1NqbERCYXZDY0F0cU93NmR2S2xfMWRnZkRHSllKcHdYaHY1bVNva25XSGIybkhPQVlLZjAwTkNIYzFrYUY1YWsyTV9NRTU4OWptUjhFY3NQZTRGdkVYOE5LWHA4bmZvU0NSNVRoME5fV1cxZmgtYnFrbUlPTVRJdG1lVHcxNmdZUEktTkZhWG1jOUoxdmJrR3UtVlhFRVVDUEJmSi1TNw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108174-tramp-vistupit-sogodni-vveceri-zi-zvernennam-pro-peremogu-u-vijni-proti-iranu-politico.html
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOVnBCaHJjSm1wOHRTS2c1UmhYWXlyeFBwUWxmUTdUenh3NGxKeEJRcURKVEFjWDBwdXJvZHQ5NWFvNTBHNGZrNXFWdjR6Q2R0MDlicHUtYkVIWGtYaGVKZnVvcmZDWWhrcDhqaTBqMFd6ZzdROVFxNjRuZHBIVVdfb2c0aUNQbThDREc3Z1VfTm8yZ3ZzS0lXT0c0VkZvLVBwU2RDNkU3b0FFa3daY25ISg?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQd3pIQndwVTNkZFgzZUVqQmFldUQ4Q2RvR0Y4dkdnb3Z5NGloNllJWlUzY0QtYldPT05tSjYya0hxMmVaY20walNxeWZ5X0FOWkc1QnFlMWV3eERxVGZpSXlXbmZoS2thaVhTQ1FnU3NfeGlMeHNld1lvUTdmSTNyNNIBhgFBVV95cUxNblp6MFR0azlvSWlfOXZYSlQ0Q0hsT1lkS1BXN2lTODlHMmdENFdKZWZ4Zlk1VGhpWUtRamNjaFRScG9ycWU5Q0JLTDhvM3lXbkxVWTNISjRSVUF3cjJjeVpRUDlNdWdLU1NZY0NDYlQ3UUhXbV9GVVVkSjJGSGFaSV82WF9ZZw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOQUtoOFhoajBOVWFhRUhJc3pxREFDQUt4ZzRJRmFXSHc4OE1WcHRvWElsMTdiVUtZeFNzZGFmOW95c2ZGcWRFRURoVTlvd1FqeUNDNWZYMjBjTURmUWFJNGpZaTBwaFZYNzFqc1FTdkdRT1RqVDBUc3JGOTh4OFprWWdSajlxS0NDRmJjUy01blVUX29reTRNZEM2cjFJMTUxaWlQWTVmMA?oc=5
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/ahead-of-national-address-trump-says-strait-of-hormuz-must-be-open-free-and-clear-before-ceasefire-talks-161325922.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/smoke-and-embers-seen-over-irans-isfahan-after-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sohodni-oholosyt-pro-zavershennia-viiny-z-iranom-ta-vysune-ultymatum-nato-politico
- [21] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/rssia-diz-que-assumiu-o-controle-total-da-regio-de-luhansk-no-leste-da-ucrnia.ghtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOZms5Smk3QThZbjZrNndNN0JzVHVXWlBZZlRiRmdxQWNfMVJheFhOX0VHWFlJSFljTG1FUnFXbFR5WkQ5a1JjU0Z5ZmpiRUNiTlJIVDN4QXpUdmplMkZBNlVPeXl2NzYxNDMyalJiOVJ1a3V2ZVJkM1hlZTdILVZfdDM0ZXlCT0RuM05SUmVrbmYxY3J3N0w5LXMxOGFyeENlWTFQYVZJVkdhQ0w2eDRkaG5KSG5IaWd5U3hQSFRxWm8?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNcjRCbG93VGRqVlVZeWpyLWtxcXJSbEtFX0d1VE5PQ2VnaGYyVktxMDhFVlQ0a1A4QnlhUjU2SVlSVWlucU5QdkEzZWFMblZQcmVmYVBhN2N4dm52SXRCS0dYZGdmRWdfazNqUU8xZVY0TUY1R3N5czc3MXdWQ2pYLVhWZmlTblIxbm55RFhTdk1FS1Z6THE4MTRTOVp4aWtGdDg3RFhpZEVGaHNmRVB6RHc4ZEVjb2prcXFNa01OVDJFUnY1aEE?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/central-israel-hit-by-one-of-irans-largest-missile-barrages-in-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://unn.ua/news/rosiia-vidpovila-masovanoiu-atakoiu-droniv-na-propozytsiiu-ukrainy-pro-velykodnie-peremyria-zelenskyi
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/636985-starmer-albanese-iran-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBCel9UNjBCMnFjc2tsQVBmVFpSX3BPbjh3bzVFRFc3QklvQmpaRUZiNGxpZmVqb1VQM0hGRWJ4NWFscHVrSGNtNzV4VDZPLUpiTklnZkVOUzZDUQ?oc=5
- [28] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/trump-ameaca-cortar-armas-para-ucrania-se-europa-nao-apoiar-coalizao-para-ormuz.ghtml
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636981-iran-war-us-israel-trump/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/01/nx-s1-5770093/trump-address-iran-war
2026-04-01
2026-04-01
进展要点
- WTI原油价格波动，受中东冲突新闻和谈判信号影响
- 黄金价格作为避险资产，需求因不确定性而增加
- 欧元兑美元汇率面临通胀数据和地缘风险双重压力，可能承压
- 美国股市可能因冲突缓解信号而上涨，但需警惕地缘反转风险
- 美元指数可能受益于避险需求和美联储政策预期
- 欧洲股市因经济放缓担忧和通胀压力而表现疲软
- 关注石油供应中断风险和能源价格走势
关联路径
中东地缘政治事件 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策反应
北约联盟动态 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产流向
能源价格变化 / 消费者信心和经济活动 / 企业盈利和市场情绪
来源
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/us-israel-launch-major-attacks-as-iranian-authorities-maintain-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4c4cac52441b485dbd6a8df270ff155b/c.html
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/38b5771ae34c407f81670651669100ff/c.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/732d80efd7f9462f8d3b745e1ee64101/c.html
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4fa12e0e7874490a86812ff9c4188bb1/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/18d6a28a2bc847bdb7d6e8b8bdc7b7fe/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/8f2ffd6270b542fba98a9d8cbae5a0b7/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/048988fff40141b7aecf9cd2c5373dfb/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/55e6f8748c3a4d8faeec9c26b56c1f89/c.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/trump-says-us-will-be-leaving-iran-in-two-to-three-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/636893-nato-without-america-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/after-strait-of-hormuz-opens-turmoil-would-still-last-months-analysts-say?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/eu-warns-oil-and-gas-prices-wont-quickly-return-to-normal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOdDBCeWVSazlVOWZVR2JNQkVxbTloSjAtOUZtaDBadkwzNW9zZHcyWHNQaFhqNGJYQm1kMlp6UEkxLWRaU1FBLVBmYUNMMEs3UUFSejJpVjMzclFkcjl2Yl8wZ3p5a0N5Tm9TWGNyS3htQ3haRFVlb1g4T3V2ejJGSHhIZlExR01kNDFHU0tydk9BWWswV0R6QjJVWFp0VnhLWVhpdXVmN3A1elpyRXdoQXRKTGJ4dw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPTGI1RDRzSnZ0MW9jTlhyd0tGNFdjQk5EQkwtS3U3UjJXUzFxR05NRVlmT01WLUtEeGlTZzhiUExVbEpENElQT05YckFqcS1URTRZQUZtMzZ1UF9YSXFUYVNlT2ttbjRaTFlhUXVkQmJHVV9oUUFtNjA2N1VzVFpOS0QxNFkzeWozYmFOYWx0bFZ3YzJESUtxZ2RfREtYR2RiaWFQS2VBRzdhcUpUNTBVRGQyMkYweHFHd0Ew?oc=5
- [16] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-rushes-to-set-up-refund-portal-to-pay-back-166bn-in-trump-tariffs
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE53b3lVZW5GdzFVOU5YSGZoOFJDVWNORVl2SHZZTjBQNjhlY05tY2R6RzdpcF9yWWxEMUZ4MllSNU92SDhnRkQ3clBsZU5lV3ltcVA5YllGWVlOemV1TzlEZ2stNk5XMU1uZ3hsVTMzQXJOWFN5eEVmS2F1SkVjQms?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQTEJJSWs3ZWoxYi1rSWs2YXd3VWFMNGs0UEtERkM5OVcwNm44V3dxcVd0anUzb3A1SFZ0MndLU3dHYnROR1FaekxYNDRPaUlMTUQtbHlFWDZXajhWeXRKRmJfUDVnSTYwSDdBX3h6eHVLNncxU2NsSS1zYjcwUzd4MnZwMTdqM1BwaTNNR3BOcEQwdw?oc=5
- [19] https://oglobo.globo.com/blogs/miriam-leitao/post/2026/03/crise-do-petroleo-uniao-europeia-ja-pede-menos-viagens-de-aviao-e-mais-home-office.ghtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/economia/2026-03-31/wall-street-sube-y-el-petroleo-cae-ante-la-disposicion-de-iran-de-negociar-el-fin-del-conflicto.html
- [21] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/we-changed-face-of-middle-east-netanyahu-says-war-on-iran-not-over
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/636876-putin-steps-up-iran-war-live-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/31/hiring-in-the-us-drops-to-pandemic-lows-as-job-market-under-trump-stagnates?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/31/whats-behind-donald-trumps-interest-in-irans-kharg-island?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/china-pakistan-outline-five-point-plan-to-end-us-israel-war-on-iran
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE90dHZRdWlORGY0UVFheG5CTUVaYXhmZ2xsdHpzTERQaUMtUjllc0lXMC1udVJMTlJFVTB5ckljUGx5RFZuREtab2JVcVRRNDBiUi1mV3o0NV9FWGlsRHlRY0lXNGFZRjA?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9MYWZqOWJKMmJsOWl2ZmtOcG1qUHlLWk02b1NzUlFvU2Z0ZVRTaFpYZHRZX01URFM2OExMUmNQTGRWU1NFNlQxMkxpa292TDRYbWJMSGw1R2htR3lpT1l0WHVIY2hkNHN4OWxXckcyanNNdzhlMkRla3IzTXp2YVk?oc=5
- [28] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-plunges-stocks-soar-after-iranian-president-offers-first-signs-of-willingness-to-end-war-with-us-183158792.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNTkNSR1NUcVd4NEkyRXN6TTVBZFVvNEFKZHRJc0RqMjBmVTR6eXBRVVFKeDcwLXA3YmlrQUYxZDlFa1hSb2h1TS03LXVnNy1SellPczFibzVEWUVfSW1XLThHZkZnWG42WENKN1F0NWtMNTJ3TEotaE5GbFdiVXVjNHdrUkhXaWl2V0pwWU5ucDJoRWs5VUlPVHFvT1k5UTcxMWNXV0FjX2I2b19WMXc?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNZnctT3ZsYkZIVFJPUXNFb1pvWDRxWDJxWjlkM0JmZHlOenltb2dnZVQyYUVCaXE1aVowZkowSlA1eUNRa0RuNGhYc2tsUzF4b0xiWlRJcGRCVTRQV3poUnk2Z1czX2VXMEptUkhQRnF3Ml9mcVNNWDJnUWxsaFNVN1BzMG9qM0xfcTdPbUd6QXVGX2hqY2tEWURGamdjS0NlV1JUeTIwbVJXbUJfMTdvYUhBMFlRZw?oc=5
2026-03-31
2026-03-31
进展要点
- 油价上涨：WTI原油突破100美元/桶，布伦特原油上涨58%。
- 股市下跌：首尔股市开盘跌2.53%，韩国综合股价指数跌破5100点。
- 避险资产需求：黄金价格上涨，美元因避险需求可能走强。
- 能源股波动：石油公司受益于油价上涨，但整体股市受避险情绪打压。
- 韩元贬值：中东紧张导致亚洲货币承压。
- 天然气价格上涨70%，影响欧洲能源成本。
- 半导体行业受影响，因能源成本上升推高生产成本。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀
避险情绪上升 / 股市下跌 / 安全资产如黄金和美元需求增加
G7政策协调 / 能源干预措施 / 油价稳定预期 / 市场情绪缓和
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险下降 / 石油供应恢复 / 通胀压力缓解
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/a4156a8c98604fbaaee1ed080d686a4e/c.html
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/9f3ed09e09c8421bb08ee61c114fa897/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595633.shtml
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331060611dr8
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-security-chief-larijani-more-key-iranian-leaders-killed-in-us-israeli-strikes/articleshow/129907599.cms
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-30/10595608.shtml
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/f4f265702ff24d1292cbd62c8636324f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/b7c8e9000fbd4cfc871051de1ed7b6f9/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/0b757beb8ee44c1186169d4b984f3d83/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/2d2a9d5efb5446f99f6a0040090631cb/c.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/31/iran-war-live-kuwaiti-oil-tanker-hit-in-dubai-port-3-un-troops-killed?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/al-jazeeras-full-interview-with-marco-rubio-on-us-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260330-crise-%C3%A9nerg%C3%A9tique-le-g7-%C3%A0-la-hauteur
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260331002400320
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331091039Faa
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595636.shtml
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/us/politics/us-missile-strike-iran-sports-hall-school.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331082958BSb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603310824239gJ
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595631.shtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPZE1Oc2xwRE93TmlxNGxnNFZldTMzS2RuNG9KZHhTT2o2OVczQlhvR1pBZnJJNXlRSWtndDFlbFY4alFoMThScHZQcHJkcTlSMTJZTnJOcmlZTVNqcU1MdDlPR0ZaWmpMSUt1NE1pY3NFbXdZaWlzdlgyQ0hfSk5MbDhJMGVLUVRmVENQYllYYWhmSnd6NWdUYnJ0S1NRVHdMVlZyZzEzT2g2ekhxVTU2U0dlT0s?oc=5
- [23] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-us-spezialeinheiten-im-nahen-osten-angekommen-a-f1df0f24-9734-4bc2-b88c-caa4761ed54d
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075620sy9
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075817J9n
- [26] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595626.shtml
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBDeXpnM3NIMmhOUGR6Z0o0eU42Mm5JZURDT0hOdko2M05KRHpZeWJMdXNaMnVWeDd0U1RLVnh3VzhOOG9pakVwZnVENHFSYXhRbk1Fam5zM0JjSEpNWGxPcTBFMHlIcUZ2N2c?oc=5
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260330-contre-la-crise-de-l-%C3%A9nergie-un-g7-in%C3%A9dit-avec-banque-mondiale-fmi-aie
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/trump-eyes-arab-nations-to-fund-iran-war-amid-peace-talks-with-tehran/articleshow/129910962.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331072941ROe
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
进展要点
- 油价因霍尔木兹海峡关闭和供应风险上涨，关注海峡状态。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，但价格受美联储政策影响波动。
- 美元可能因避险需求走强，影响新兴市场货币。
- 全球股市面临避险压力，中东相关板块风险高。
- 白银价格反弹，与黄金走势分化，反映市场情绪复杂。
- 能源股和国防股可能受益于军事紧张。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
军事行动扩大 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升
外交调解努力 / 缓解紧张 / 风险情绪改善 / 市场反弹
来源
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPemo4aG92YmVObXh2c2lZeXpZdlFZUUR0S0VEUUF1TWdObEdCMnBOaGJQa2FWS1FjTGRISXhMcjM1bXVpalpPSW9uNG10aC1fNWJ4ay10eHhwZ1JlSGZ6ZUVFSFZqNkJQR3lOMGpQb3Mwbl9qWC1QQUhWTzJiTklIaF9VdlBzMkd6bk1wam1KMGhqX1YzZjVHcWlHTmg0UFByZHRZ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE80aEc4OWU4TGtJMUw2MTRhWHo1SDgwdVpnTzJ3OEVRT2FGWkVxeHlhNlVxSXI3WnJyRDYtRmhFa0NRdHcwUTBHWTNzYzZoMU5CVEVPT2l5VDZvdVpsTWlLSnBpYU5wLWlEdFh6QUdmVmlKTy1zbFVjTHA3Zw?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE5rUGkxamwyaHNNNGJ4M2ZZNXVpOHN2X0hDMG00dnVMS0J1SXd2WHFKc2gzMVZZLXpSSzJ2QTN2SllBcEJZU05CaTk3aE5TS0QwNUxKeDc0ek1XZmQxSkhYOFdlaWQxQmpqOWItUDhzWQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260329-world-trade-is-struggling-as-war-in-iran-continues
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQcjBLWHhQcG96UjU0RHh4a0JvRW5oWWZ5X3lFYzJkLW4tT3RjZXdkejJWcERZX01xd0wycUZuQVFCanZzUHIxVTVUSEx3blg0TWRMYnlod2pTRk5TT0wyVEhQVkF5eThBclFGeEdPNGF3aG5KTVRkdkpiMUJwb3VYc2ZJQlRBYXRRcFJUZ1NIc0hzcGNVZHRSYXlpSnlkanFtWHfSAacBQVVfeXFMUG1NWFY3ZUJrRl8xMGh1TTlxaEN3aEtmY2x6ODQyV1JYQ0NFVEdocGZyY0x3YXVXbjVDRW5fOXFPemhhWDRmbFlLTWhydHdBSWx6SmdoTktUQzFLT2RPRVJXVmQ5ek12QWp2UnplZ2kxTmVVa2ZWb2o4NHNsVVVhM0I3dE5DS05vd2VrUHVvamhRa3c3NWptcy1yRlI0SWUwM3l6WDdKems?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/one-month-of-israel-us-war-on-iran-a-timeline/article70800535.ece
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106917-uae-intercepts-58-missiles-and-drones-launched-from-iran.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1xbHZQRWhXdGJmZ2lKM3NuUEEzWEVGN09pQzF5ZnZFX2I2bVlkYlNNc2ZWcmw4T2FUZlZuRVNJRHNuTXFqbHB3YVRzNkNjQnBtOXEwY1BvVVUzbGdLVWZySE8ySFdYNnNaY0JFeWFR?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-missile-hit-neot-hovav-162832864.html
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-attack-saudi-injures-least-224939787.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-warns-us-against-ground-assault/live-76581165?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-houthis-claim-2nd-attack-on-israel-in-24-hours/live-76573681?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-reports-fire-in-new-ukrainian-strike-on-major-baltic-port/article70800282.ece
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge01w2dxe0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp86yrq5jy7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/29/iran-hits-industrial-zone-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260329-moyen-orient-washington-muscle-sa-pr%C3%A9sence-militaire
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106892-war-update-enemy-launches-66-attacks-pokrovsk-and-kostiantynivka-sectors-see-fiercest-battles.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNeERGX0FoN1B4bXRIUmktRHRLZnNOUnpha2tpYk5fZW92Z3FNVXRkZEpYTng1NzdRTFFPS0tKQ2dtYVlsLWpScnJXem1EMG1KT0kyVmhJVkNvQWJIZW9BYTVHZFBaWmNWYW9HQnQ4R2hzWWRNWG52V1NNVjBMQktiOHF0X0RaWS1jS3hjUURGakluVWJkWWZydGtILUctSzNqa1o0UjduQWxUd1BYUFlyT9IBtgFBVV95cUxOYlRSZkhFVHNCMFI2ZlJGMXJfcXktNEJVa3hhcGJCZDh3NExYdVViQ1RpWXZkVkx3SHE4RmtaSUd5TUdVWWN0NEExT29QNklNbmZ2MHlLckxMSGtuajlIMjFaMVI1cEpISzF1S0QydGRiTU5PZjNKaFpxcnlRXzl1dkg4QThCdFlxQkhjT0ZEWi1SZVo2Sy1fbVQ5VTJxZ0FvczB
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxNWFhyQ1p0emoyTk1xOWpzMEZhZGxpd0pPVGVva0xiUFpnRkpCSHhnU2Q3VVNRNmFCbHhZaFlCMHBacXZWYVpLOVVlb2MzNnFnZVZYWVAzWThNdjBlYV90Mm8wMUdFal9hc2ZhN3lkcks1UDg5M1Z2WGdaU1U2RVVNQjhOcGZaTmJXQzhrUklWTi05VnE1YlBqbTdNZ1RFbFhDUG44LUFTV2NMTWhheW1PbXZlXzlqREhUbVV3ZlN1SGhBRk1NWXJDd3p2dXI5ei0xTUttTVdrMFd5YW9wM0k5T2JYV2p4VkVwejN6LVV6MG5Nb0k?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/houthis-open-new-front-in-iran-war-will-yemeni-group-block-bab-al-mandeb?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxPZ2lfV3pPSXZNdG5HUE10NDE1YThZZDVFakdkb3lfa3UyLTdSRHhhX3RmS2VuZ1U2dC0tSjU3dXlBMDg3Y0hWanh6WW14RXRjZy1TS3ZFcGloNGFya1FTZHNvc1Jzc25RVTJnajVTTHJkZ244SVJiM0d5NTNPYWg3Y2E3a25mVmUtckoxa0FCRG4zNk9FYUtCMTRneHpDRTNxR3lfczFZSUtaM1FHMUIxVlFLZ2VjWXJLejJxQU1EZHM5dFNPMnp2cjJKYUJwWjg?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPMVhGcGtmWFFLbGxsLUpUY2tlNUZablRoMVhObzdQYlFBWTVmZGVyc3NaZGRFanVKVGxBX0YtNGRKblBKUjM5c0xqaW1LZW9nSFJTQXdJVTlqRDg3cVd3TXdjV2RaeFdBR2RLYkRpRURGczJwX2dNeGNwLWd2RElfY3N3Z1hGMk1H0gGLAUFVX3lxTE80Yk5sMER1YkxQaTQzTDczdHV0WkF6ek55eVhjQkJpdXFQdzNHbnU4N19wQ3c3UWl3aWdpMU4yQ2UtY1llclRpLVpwX0IwOWQ0dENTSzZTZDhWc1pyTTRhVjBacmpIUDg4VEl2QlJxQzhPZDhWa2FlRTk5Nl9ncjktVTZKWTN2b1ctc1U?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOSXE4WVFndEZQVWNOQjh2UkVNV2FIaTQ3MERlWEtuN192WG1pRnlsVE9zMVFHUVRncDZmX0NKb204STYwNXQ3LV9HQm51c2thVVJLWWExNGx6U2pnd2QyMnpPb3BRMlMzMC1SS1N1NTFVOVo1UWE2TDRYbWJCU0tXRXFnV2pCb0l2Z3pB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-3-500-us-troops-arrive-in-the-region
- [27] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-crisis-mediators-gather-in-pakistan-for-talks-on-ending-month-long-iran-war/articleshow/129881093.cms
- [28] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-silver-outlook-bullion-markets-brace-for-volatile-week-as-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-cues-weigh/articleshow/129881732.cms
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNRlZTZnRnR0tGckFFMFNyZkFpMkFYSm41Y3FmNmtWTlF0ZWZIYlpGZE04SFc4Nm9nZENQMFVNWW1kUURBSjR5Q1pfS3BIR3FFUUNTRDY5N1A4RUxRUHROTnNoLUdNX2J6ckVmNGhJM2dYaFRSQmFXX2VCM1RXcHNxeWlOR2F5VV9qQ2lQa09FS0xndw?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQTkVyUEN2ejdNYWNQOWRLZHVJLTJyNlRSeHVjT1R1YUg1UTE4dTR4YWtVLTZsZWZFNnNWZzFpQ0VoSzl6RDNvMW9uazV4QXBfb285NlUyYWRjV25ubjJRY2tDTlZqcHAxbkJVbG1YbDdVNUhJcGJOem1sSTRfRU9fN1c0TDVnQ2ZtY1dBQkNNbXZwZUQ5ZFo4MWpnajFWRnhidExsd2dZX05zRTg?oc=5
2026-03-29
2026-03-29
进展要点
- 油价因中东供应风险上涨，布伦特原油或突破关键阻力位。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格上行压力持续。
- 美元走强，受益于避险资金流入和地缘政治不确定性。
- 全球股市承压，尤其能源依赖型经济体和风险资产。
- 债券收益率可能因避险需求而下降，但通胀预期支撑长端利率。
- 外汇市场波动加剧，中东货币和商品货币敏感。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 市场避险
胡塞武装袭击 / 红海航运风险 / 供应链通胀 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
伊朗核威胁 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 风险资产抛售
战争延长 / 经济增长放缓 / 企业盈利下降 / 股市回调 / 债券需求上升
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/key-moments-in-first-month-of-us-israeli-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE9zNUlleUlBNHRhY2g2Z2JXLUNrcjZ5bzJRYlRkNm0yQWRtcDR1UHJLeXRwRVNkWFZNdDJEbEMxMXdFNWhYVS1YODV3WnJDSmJhbGQ1dkxRVUpVVVMteUVtSmxWSmZUblMzZVE?oc=5
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/analysis-1-month-war-iran-150728746.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/29/iran-war-live-houthis-attack-israel-anti-war-protesters-rally-in-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-hits-airbase-in-saudi-allies-houthis-enter-war-target-israel/articleshow/129874132.cms
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxNRnNNMXp6endjeWw0eWo0SkJfX0JfVExSUnRyd2lYV01CcVN0bnVrREVUSnQxSkM0TFMzNjVWNzdCNXBNcDZ4TmgtTTNkUE94R1VSa09lb3VwUUhDVWUxRzktOXlwS1ZidFliRTNIUng3QWVFeUtNVVNZZjVia0FZZW4yZjVJRTJoRzFQcnd0bGpRaE1rNFpDaE1uMlVVVlFIVFRtSXg5ZHZPNUZfSXNndDBlcVNrME9KWWpuVVA1eEjSAcYBQVVfeXFMTUlJaHJnOHJwb2lBQmQwSmltZ0Vrd25YWnR2TGl1TUJuWUJxOGJRUnk0a3ZfQ0l6bnNETVl5Ny1PREVaVkVtaHd1VlY2akRMbHNNbUtWTTFSM2RaRnp2QWFTbF9UbzdoZjVvc21laUVxeGxWVVkta1lVS2RxY1NZckJfUWhXQXdBaWIxR1ZiT2M1R0d
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/636572-iran-us-israel-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTFB2LW9fUjBuQ1haQUdiQzRBSDBVNkFWazR3dDZsbDBJZE5yeDRUQjFBN0RaS0dzWjNCSm1TdW85anFXNno3V3p4OXFEUEgwRVJNOC1LcUhRN3p6X21FRm5uaFZwTUFxeDVmR2pZYm9iem4wOHBzUGpyOWRLSEg?oc=5
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3425270
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260328-les-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men-lancent-une-attaque-contre-isra%C3%ABl-les-frappes-contre-l-iran-continuent
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260328-yemen-s-houthis-launch-ballistic-missile-at-israel-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/kuwait-airport-hit-by-iranian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/opinion/iran-trump-israel-geopolitics.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOblloY2RKTmxkUWY2ZUQwak54MXZLRHJzcTZVNWk4STFDb3VQZkU5OXg1ZUp6dXpITmxFVkRubXAwTDZkcDU4cTBjZmhHSnd3dzRqZ1dGQXBVUldqakRLbTFzUENheUotNTQ5Vm9jTV9HemE4dUtEVDhXbl93YnRIS3hoVHJWOFpoSHBzUUFUU1NjMDNDcGhEbmpvSFZndDByODVUT2dn?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6l5n8jv4yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.iris-france.org/operations-aeroterrestres-sur-liran-de-quoi-parle-t-on
- [17] https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2026-03-28/larry-fink-presidente-de-blackrock-y-el-hombre-mas-poderoso-del-mercado-si-la-guerra-en-iran-se-alarga-mas-de-un-ano-la-economia-mundial-entrara-en-recesion.html
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [19] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/28/iranian-attack-on-saudi-base-injures-us-troops-as-more-american-forces-arrive-in-west-asia
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQYnNQVkNDSkdjNEVEOHlNUzlPQkFrenhKRGhOdnNxU09SLW1BOXlEeDFGZ0ZRdWtsWjZVWnhxYUhyYUVpMWsza0d1ejJxT0RtQ25DU3ZKUGVscnpud2MxNzdJd1V6bjgza3ZscmZLOTZfT0g1emxaY1hVZnFuU3VlR0RPOFo3WUNMclN3?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaXNoeE54X2RSMXpjVGEzNklVVW5QckY5cjYxRzhWQXBBMmZyOU9VUHR2Z1hIRndXM21odExpRzNMbFhObm5lQUc5azVhQmZxMktRS2lDZW5XcmVmZ3lSRnBwX1hZd1pJOU1fYWZmeWYwd09CU29CRlZ6Z3gwZktIcS1Edmtta0xIV0Y2SEkweDRJVGpQS1A0UFlfX1VvZGV0?oc=5
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106683-air-defense-systems-activated-in-kyiv-region.html
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/lawmakers-push-npt-exit-as-us-israel-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-steel-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-troops-wounded-in-iran-strike-on-base-in-saudi-arabia-us-official-says/article70795431.ece
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/massive-blaze-at-kuwait-airport-after-iran-drone-strike-fuel-tanks-hit/articleshow/129869192.cms
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-les-possibles-impacts-mondiaux-de-l-entr%C3%A9e-des-houthis-dans-le-conflit
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-ukraine-des-frappes-visent-odessa-zelensky-dans-le-golfe
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-premi%C3%A8res-frappes-revendiqu%C3%A9es-par-le-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-iran-frappes-isra%C3%A9liennes-sur-sites-nucl%C3%A9aires-et-civils
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-des-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-bless%C3%A9s-dans-une-frappe-sur-une-base-en-arabie-saoudite
2026-03-28
2026-03-28
进展要点
- 油价预计上涨，布伦特原油可能因供应风险突破高位
- 黄金作为避险资产受益，价格可能继续攀升
- 美元兑日元升至160，关注日本央行干预风险
- 股市，尤其是能源和防御性板块，可能出现分化
- 债券收益率可能因避险需求而下降
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀压力上升
避险情绪主导 / 美元和黄金需求增加 / 资产配置调整
联盟紧张 / 地缘风险溢价上升 / 风险资产抛售
来源
Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZEtyeXAteExYR1BmQ1hmendwdEJQbFo0eGRCVXdWMWFwT1JkSmU4UHJIYTJtT0puUVUzVTBFd2hfVk1ONXVNV3MxZGMtOHBUdnlCVG9pU3BhMk8zY0VpcHpBTXZTalRpLVpkZUlJNF9TbUxsWGZhd09BLS1na29SR08wQVIzZ3daZ3lpMmVleGp4WkV3ZWtv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6f005e85ece997c8b456f.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-israel-hits-iranian-heavy-water-nuclear-reactor/live-76555531?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/explosions-rock-iranian-capital-amid-us-israel-attacks/3882486
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNR3F4N2t1WExsVkJXTzNGT183ZDc0SU9LWTAtWE8zX0tRRllRMFkwdHl2LV9ESDJxeDlTR0hzM2ltVDlETmhyV3RnWmhLY2RWX1I0Q3lMaXlfeEdUWVk0Sm1vS0htQTVMWmRXQ0FJZVBhS2VXNWRSdXdWUDkzanU0U0tJcjhGam9OMTVUMmU4dWFTVm1qY2l6d01JUQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPT1lyU19ZVDZLRWc2emFWcWhUcFo5clVjM0N5R2FVQ3ZZZjQtOExQV0hpZ2xScEU3Xy1yUmYtR3hTenNLaWtlZUREdGZ4Ni1lNjZ0RzZGeWhRaU4wUHhHTm5OM1RYLTZKNUVQY2JfdGVnVzVLODE4N3kwOG1fb3AxWDhvYlBub29XdXZ6MGJkWVVTVXBwRGtET1JkM2Z1dXpXTF9EcEpYUmlnMlVoOVVmcXctaw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/israel-launches-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-sites-as-war-enters-fifth-week?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/israel-attacks-major-industrial-and-nuclear-sites-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/27/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-plusieurs-sites-nucleaires-frappes-marco-rubio-au-g7-prevoit-une-fin-des-operations-d-ici-deux-semaines_6673056_3210.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE93bjF0N2pQUWF3SWRVeENjeUNiM1lFeWR6aGZnVmJaU2NRYnc0YTkxT1dUX3BHWTZzNUVpMkt6SDRQMW5NcXl1SHdRS09IVnBuRnFpR0dkVDljd3BSUW5tcy00a3F1YVZ4OHc?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxONFp1WFh4TlAya0RwNGhQM25SYktuNDVXOHdOZ2ZhVXEySXRaUUM3aDRHLUk5SzVvV01tanRKUHdTMm1PZXRnZUItSFpNOU4tZzNBZ0dIay1VMWRXenFNYkFzUkxJOVMzZUhMSzRnRGRjdk5SQzVZVXNZTTEweUdVZWtZYmhZcDdNeWZzdXdfYnLSAZYBQVVfeXFMT0N6QTFnQUhnTlNKeFo1S2ZZQ2Vlcmdnc3dsM3N5dE0zaG5laXFRTlVEckI3ajJ2cmJKalhFel9DZmtGMVQ1RFR0Y3JSekpNdG11LVpXNFJCczl5djRrbTNjYzQ4OVlHM0V5R3JJal9hWC1lNE1YSXEyZlRXOWVvSVJxaDY5SVp5OWRJWjNCdDF4Rm5hckZB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-uses-hundreds-tomahawk-missiles-101814598.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106269-irgc-announces-strait-of-hormuz-closure.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-creating-a-new-middle-east?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-samstag-104.html
- [17] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/release-the-bank-canadas-summary-deliberations-2026-04-01
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/rescue-workers-rush-to-save-lives-after-south-tehran-missile-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [20] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/28/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-le-chef-de-la-diplomatie-americaine-marco-rubio-accuse-volodymyr-zelensky-de-mentir-sur-les-garanties-de-securite-proposees-par-washington_6673450_3210.html
- [21] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6aabf21efa07c798b45b9.html
- [22] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/28/69c6c1ade4d4d8ca6d8b4571.html
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/28/trump-stellt-unterstuetzung-fuer-nato-partner-infrage
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/houthis-warn-fingers-on-the-trigger-as-us-israeli-war-on-iran-continues?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/nearly-1-500-civilian-deaths-in-a-month-of-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-human-rights-report/3882476
- [26] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/trump-says-cuba-next-after-iran-war/3882480
- [27] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/washington-donald-trump-pete-hegseth-b2947437.html
- [28] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/73131
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/fingers-on-the-trigger-for-military-intervention-houthis-warn?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxOaTZ2TFgyZmVUZk1DRUpidjlZcGV1NkpFX2IxVk9QRUZNdGZRWi1ZMktlcDFncGFUOTlNajloY1l6Sy1NdHBpU3hvdk5hakJxMEJDTVVhTnh2TjRRUm9SNFZPdDRhV1J5LTVwNmNsMGNqTy1MTW9ad1ZSaUo2V3duNkhaTjItczdP?oc=5
2026-03-27
2026-03-27
进展要点
- 石油价格因霍尔木兹海峡供应风险而上行压力，关注布伦特原油走势。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格可能因中东紧张而上涨。
- 美元可能因避险需求而走强，但受美国政治风险制约。
- 全球股市面临地缘风险和通胀担忧下行压力，尤其能源和防御性板块。
- 利率市场关注美联储对通胀的反应，美债收益率可能波动。
- 外汇市场波动加剧，中东风险影响新兴市场货币。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀风险
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
油价上涨 / 美国通胀压力 / 美联储加息预期 / 全球利率波动
WTO改革失败 / 贸易保护主义上升 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOazM5aVI0RjBGa0NfUzU4UGNKMXpONTNmc2tQdG5Gc0E1UTBrS292SHJCSzZHcTlHdXNEVHhtM2hXeDh4OFVqZFM4N24xVzZlVTZSNlJmWlhxQmhvZWtWd3NlV2dZdDVCNWhvQ0lYN244cEt6QTFlcWM3ZTVTaGtBUUlRTUdUMkd4R1kxWjhacEVrNnV1MHRfZmtQXzN1WXliN194MnJEZEJWa0R3Qmt6ZU1Eckg3ZXNBc0xIU0930gHDAUFVX3lxTE83b3hyNjVEWXUtWE5KRTZEX040cnZhcTdvb1VFeEhxR1luQXVTR2lKaWE3T2xmWElrT3U2NV9xMkdHd0hxV21BLTJmUjhxODc3blNfUGtwNHRCdWM2YmplQnVqMFgzS0dDaWVoZ2ZOME4zSVNBaVo2LTE5MElLQlBiTjZVYnhPSkMtMkw3VlFjSnEwcjJ
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/iranian-missiles-cause-widespread-damage-across-israel-in-latest-wave?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260326/4ba703685484482e8b989fe883829511/c.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593524.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593519.shtml
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593516.shtml
- [9] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c54b06e85ece6b448b45a0.html
- [10] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c56546fc6c83733f8b4588.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/trump-pausing-plan-to-destroy-iranian-power-plants-for-10-days?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-verlaengert-Ultimatum-um-zehn-Tage-id30517240.html
- [13] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Teheran-kontrolliert-Strasse-von-Hormus-mit-Mautstellen-id30515770.html
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Hauptverantwortlicher-fuer-Sperrung-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-soll-tot-sein-id30514792.html
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-feuert-ballistische-Rakete-auf-Abu-Dhabi-Tote-durch-Truemmerteile-id30513646.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/636330-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/26/aje-onl-tt_irq_neighborspillover_av_v2-260326?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/26/what-are-the-red-lines-for-iran-and-the-us-in-the-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/wto-holds-crunch-meeting-amid-collapsing-multilateral-system?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/trump-postpones-us-strikes-on-iranian-power-grid-to-april-6-amid-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-03/strasse-von-hormus-iran-trump-ultimatum-verlaengerung-ostern
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-starts-formalize-chokehold-strait-192024062.html
- [23] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/03/26/guerre-en-iran-avant-le-g7-le-canada-et-ses-partenaires-attendent-des-eclaircissements-de-washington_6674368_3210.html
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/26/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-au-liban-au-moins-1-116-personnes-ont-ete-tuees-depuis-le-debut-de-guerre-au-moyen-orient-selon-les-autorites_6673056_3210.html
- [25] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/26/trump-verlaengert-iran-ultimatum-erneut
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/israel-sends-more-troops-into-southern-lebanon-as-ground-invasion-expands?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/una-guerra-de-final-incierto-en-la-que-los-dos-bandos-elevan-sus-exigencias-que-se-sabe-de-las-negociaciones-entre-ee-uu-e-iran.html
- [28] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/israel-mata-al-responsable-del-cierre-de-ormuz-mientras-trump-urge-a-iran-a-alcanzar-un-acuerdo-antes-de-que-sea-demasiado-tarde.html
- [29] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/iran-rechaza-la-oferta-de-estados-unidos-para-acabar-la-guerra.html
- [30] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-24/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
进展要点
- 油价（WTI/Brent）：因地缘供应风险，波动加剧，可能测试每桶100美元以上。
- 黄金：避险需求上升，价格走强，关注中东和俄乌冲突进展。
- 美元：作为避险货币，兑欧元和新兴市场货币可能升值。
- 股票：全球风险情绪转向避险，股市承压，尤其是能源敏感板块。
- 欧元：受欧洲央行通胀警告影响，兑美元可能走弱。
- 利率：通胀预期上升，推高国债收益率，央行政策路径不确定性增加。
- 俄罗斯卢布：石油出口中断施压汇率，需监控制裁和冲突发展。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀风险上升
俄乌冲突加剧 / 俄罗斯能源出口受阻 / 全球供应紧张 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判僵局 / 地缘不确定性持续 / 市场情绪避险 / 黄金和美元走强
能源危机 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 央行政策转向鹰派 / 利率上升 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxPZHZTeElMaGFXSUFuLWF0cm81WmRmc2R3T1FRbVRjZkJNekFQRnZlQS02bl9OWkgyT1JGVkRrUXpqQ1J1Mmt1Y1U2NUhuZlFRajUxTlBxLXlkdHBQM3ZVSks2Vjk5TmlQUUdhWnZPRHNIRTdKTzJYYndFd3J6dmlaTXNld2tZTlRkSnQ5bTF1VVU2Z0c1UWpPYXh1Mk9SeHZnTVl4Z2syVENULVNaY2NmNHJYQ2lDRHR1RVdxbA?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/explosions-and-smoke-seen-as-iranian-missiles-hit-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995xp4jxj2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260325/f6d947b8e24c4f2e8c5b44ea69c57b8d/c.html
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-26/10592890.shtml
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0n9z3jlvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOZUVaa1BTWEJ5UENmczgyUTZ2VGlvOThaVk54Zy1mX2FlSkVXRkpPM0JoRFN4SkMzYjdqMW5YX19Ib3E3d0hNd2J4VUoweUdxUGZEbHEtb2JJVzNmeW53d0VkQmtMOGJESVBRX2JQZ0VrSUJLRWotVGw3dkFVdDBDaTBSclBnaGNzNmdva2hwa3NXbkpwNVA1VkZ6UVZoMDQ3NzMwetIBqgFBVV95cUxQTTBwMHc0MXZhWElFNnE5UHhqYnppQnYxbkhqMUVKYTJDSzVRRWFHSnJ2dVBnanlWWmFGdzFWbkdWelR1Znl3U1pmTEM4X3NGa0FmMUJIX0w1V1UwYVhIV2VDaUlLS21rTTdFQUV0VFNvMkZxYkotd1VfT1Fud1Zwc1VQSU90WXlIcHk3aXRoS3BXV21oWVdnd2N5SlBPd0NqQjZZbHppb19sQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQMXdid0VGVnlDTGxyM0hLVm5YQ0t5clFwMHJiTG84R0dSM25BMjN6cmZMbzJTNnRjM05rV0UtVmVNTC1XLWx0UWFwaVBEd1VXYXVNamxuUHI5NEZPeFZHN1FKZFpJTW1LSDd0aW02RGVXU0NSM1VQRHJyY09MZU00TGYtSlk3QVk0QUNvSUhwbHUtUkxQc2pLNGtZMmhwZlRQWVlmQnhrUFE?oc=5
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/636210-us-israel-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4105605-war-update-140-clashes-on-frontline-pokrovsk-sector-remains-most-active.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/iran-releases-video-claiming-to-show-downing-of-us-jet?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/us-tells-iran-to-accept-defeat-or-trump-will-unleash?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTFBaSTB2REZuZkVORnhBWVNzZUxJazU0QjNvX1ZURldXN2pXVl8tUmt4LUtVSXMyRzMxTGZWRUVxWllfeXpzQUJoaENZSFppbGxJTW1JUU91dk9JNFNwVTJCd3hGTkFpTDFKU1Y5WVpR?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/25/whats-irans-war-strategy-and-what-risks-does-it-pose?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPcnFiZWQ3UmpJdmZUOV9JUk1Xdks5TkdMRThxY2NDVXNRczFYbUhOeFVVWnRYU2NGTkpJaFJ5NU1sc0tXUHZhVlZqNHdncmQ1bXQ2VXpnOEY2S3Q4dFUyVmNaUXFnblpWUjdYZE0wbmRVNnBtYjR5bjBHQVhOcWdVbWM5NWZNMVA1bkRlck02VkVOMVhFWWJZTWVHRDREbVItMlIxWjlR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/irans-state-tv-outlines-five-conditions-to-end-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxPXzFlbUhpQ2xmVXJWMXI4SWEwU290YVN0dkdJSUdfYWUyZ3RiZW9SNnZNSmI2N0k3cE13T0hMQjNVUk9rMDBHLVZrUFpFblhScnBVX1JSTjViQ01EZUtwNDJkUF96bnNJTHM0ZERnNWNiNE1WS2tFM0p4WFZ6dUx4cXZTZ3dmczBIZjBsLTJKdjRxa0xOWV92WV95RUotcmlneXpVVkpCZEsxMFM0a014Y3RkSnRjTnRWc0Z4dWlYU3RWRkVQZW8xbHQ5MXpSSnRSLUFmMUVmZV92dG1OeFlsQkNEUWpTR2xTMlMySjh1Sjc4Q0U?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOSE9rVnF3d3k4SmhmU01hRkdJdThyM2RiVXpiRDZaWGtqMDQ5NzhyWXVxQW1MNlN0aWd3VXNvcTZCLTUtdlhMQU5qYVNWRWZCWFVwaVJaQ3BhclFLNEtqN1dHekYtcDR1X18yaUNGcE4xaTZBYm53d0VrMUFOUGs3SmdRTTU3TDRDd1pkUDhUT0ZQbFJHR1lsdklIbE9WUi13czY4YTE5b1RRc2V2Z290QQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/636167-iran-worse-than-iraq-sanchez/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBhNUprVndUd2RfcjlTX25CYWxQX0FURTZxS0FHNHhMTFZ0ellkb2RUcW1WVE5BUkpEdS1EbzBFaUNJWXZiSGhJYjI4NVN1eGhIcjV2MlhJYV9iS01Sc1J4Q25QWE4xY1RBaWFKNXdIeEp2U21mLUJuTw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQbVB0QmxlZFY1d2N2ajhFMWpMMWJZcWpOa24zV3lYVkZUYk8zMF9iR1lULUJROUZRaWRjanBuUzM0UlN6OUhYQ2JyT3Q2Wm5kMDYwUzZrWTlIUXB0TkJmWnBHV0JyNFUwVnZKRzJ1Q05VSVdKVFF3cmJKbGl1QVpyV1lIU3NmYjlOUkg4Zg?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPUzdaa0lJdElid1NPc2RhSGJGdkRGenM0UGcyWDNfTTUtbWFwMmFHbjgyaVEyb1BDTG5EdVlTamZBVkQtLXhBaE45dWZBX1luTUNGWWhzSmwtVXY2cTkzSmZHQlpNVDNoQjg5R1Y4WkJtTm5uTmNfaHlseDEtZ2xndmtnUHNjckE5Z3lrbDlXMTdEeVJOdkxYb2Z6dzBsRV80Wl8tR0lFeHpTS1pwcWZoUWpJeU5UNjFnaVg2T0RB?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQSnpPVGY1V0h1RUhCU1ZCNVFyQV9DczRnVHJEMVk4QWFYRHk5VzRxWFpQa1FRSjFaTEk5YkwyejBmLWZTaFVieVJIVnRyck9Yb1JhYjdNX2lsakRySmdUbkFZY1B0aEJuNzdtNFhscXVPZXRGMmhhbUJVRWN4Z1BvQ1hMd0c3Ml9PUjZGQ3dqNzhtc2ZZR3hBSVZYaGwtNk5CVWRYSXRrYUFzMDNkcWJHblFFTW9fdw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/war-on-iran-what-troops-is-the-us-moving-to-the-gulf?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOdUtCdTFreDRwM3dONWtPQmFoZF9UNEdUMHhJejF1eUcxZEhHVUQ4XzFJdVZ6OUdkckZ2eDNpODJRSHBYYmxpbC1CS2dSOXgxclR4REhmRWlITjFUS2VnVVE1RXRKa2xtODRTeTlhN2dyWXNMejNmYVE0ZlU4R1RmVjREZGZ3TnFxNXNIYV94Sk92VG44aDZvVnFnUW1iQkdo0gGmAUFVX3lxTE54eGZkajBCaklCOElMT1k5TkVMbXlCUWw2Y2pwbUFvYmlEUTZFb05rejhuRXREajA3UXVqYWRzTlZ0QjhObTlMdkZzMHJieGJnVlF2aUFjM0xUY0pHdEY4TnQ1SE44ZW5tc3R2TlJnc29CYjVwa0lDRk14T3dWY1lZd3YxZnlPeDBkOG5ETWNab194NFAtamJjWGloWjh1Wm8xR1RYUGc?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE5uMGZRMTY3dnJWQ1REYWVFY3dqNW9NZGg0Ym52M1o4VC1TZWhzQVpMUjh3ZENlRGs1UTBROXVJZjJ3aXdQQUh3TnZUMA?oc=5
- [28] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/70691f988eb542f3acc9660bfd41443c/c.html
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636100-shock-and-awe-is-dead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/israel-talks-up-iranian-threats-to-european-cities-to-justify-war?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
进展要点
- 油价：受中东冲突和LNG供应中断支撑，可能重返100美元/桶上方。
- 金价：避险需求上升，支撑价格上涨，关注地缘风险演变。
- 美元：作为避险货币，需求可能增加，尤其对风险货币走强。
- 股市：战争拖累和波动交易中下跌，全球风险情绪承压。
- 人民币：受中国政策支撑，但需关注外部风险传染。
- 债券：避险需求可能推低收益率，但通胀风险限制下行空间。
- 欧元：受乌克兰战争和能源风险影响，走势偏弱。
- 日元：避险属性可能提振，但需观察日本外务省警示影响。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 油价金价上涨
LNG供应中断 / 能源价格上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中国特别国债 / 银行信贷扩张 / 实体经济支持
地缘紧张 / 市场波动加剧 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/building-collapses-after-iranian-missile-strike-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/iranian-missiles-cause-injuries-and-major-damage-across-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPQ3N3MFRHWTViTmdtMGhteGRYbFBTaTN0TlFJdWU0eHdkdmtsMkVTY09PbGF3bmFRUnBDT1JmS3pmMGVkSzd3d21UUUlCQkJaNWkxSmRXcHdZMUlqMFY1Mm9BcFJjblp2bzctTmRpWmpPdnNLQUpxdFBMbi1GLWxNZk1nMHNualdrTjBhdTNaR3hRWlBa0gGaAUFVX3lxTE5PQnBMY2FGbVJYZUczQVMyN1Y5em5NZHpEeC1MOHJzR0tfa29wU3c3M0N5NzlDWF9WaW8wRjdhUnZvVTlZOHo2WDZyV0pDSGJiMFJBMWhyNng3bl9hWDl6RXc4MF9Mb0NyQnBXNHkwWFJ1YmVlMFJZQTNpOTkxLVdsdTJleXE5cnpwS1lWMTF0Wml6eC1aQVBpZnc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260324/13137e064ccb478c9939b3b8c9272065/c.html
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/6b6fad3bee41483eadae413812ef9ccd/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/25/iran-war-live-trump-again-says-talks-underway-12-killed-in-south-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://unric.org/fr/lactualite-de-lonu-en-bref-numero-11
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/arms-manufacturer-thrives-amid-us-israel-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/trump-claims-us-has-achieved-regime-change-received-present-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.anzen.mofa.go.jp/info/pcwideareaspecificinfo_2026C021.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4OV82UHJwV3pQdUdsRUc1R3hnSHFFMXIxQ25uLU1TRGFxNUFZMmpBWG9GaDRwRkZHbmplVDlnWklTRTFpcmpWMGJaVGw4aUl1ZVZkRUhMZXpqQQ?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE83NTJQYXhUdGF1U1RIRHpnZVZ5M0NDdzRYMVpySW9kUzZOUUJyS3pObEI1MVFhWTZ1Y0hOYTlrbkFJSFpjdExjWlE0cEU2eUQxZEExN2VMMVhURkhIVkFsR1BZdDJsaElCeGZSRQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOWW5Xd3p5UWxSQmdTMjdmRVJOaTBDb0lSNmdFd1FVTVRacU1qOEY1Rmo2d05iUXYwMXQ3ZU11RnhYdHI0RHBrbm4xbGVUSXJydjBOc2ZWdG85c3pOZEFiQ1lOckZ0cjQ5SFJmSUQyc3hsX3JoTE10aDRFTVRzNFM0Ykp6ci1XSWdxUGZTVlNoRjlhYVp4?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOVUswbnBPNGRmZVI3bXFRMWZ4Q3Fucl9Cczd0MnlZQUVZcFUxeF85TzNIbmoyQmUyckl5dWpKTFoyT2Q1OW9UWkdjaGhCNGw3b0t6S203VDJSS2V4bldDSGZVZm9pMk50S3owX0Z1QXB6OU5Hd0kyTWpwbEs2WjllRjJuNkttTHhqNENjd0sxZE1OVEZUVXpjb2IyeEtqTnBvUWxSd0ZWb2dRUmhiVlhkbHdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/has-iran-brought-down-an-unkillable-us-f-35-jet-3?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/russia-hits-ukraine-with-deadly-daytime-barrage-as-spring-offensive-starts?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxPZUo5dVE3czd6Mm1zajl0eklhS1ZnVUtPY1FIWDF6N3h0M0ViV2pPa2YzNlZUN3FYNlQ1MENQVWdrUzFNRkhhQThPUldaWmNrcHpzNFNIUkIyc3d1OE5qWjloTk9Xd003d0ZZRzgwaGJkWUNFc2o4ZUVaVzBtZGVDYmgzcFM0cmdGYTlha2VNNWluUlk?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNVVlkMW5RWHd3cEtuaEpTLXYwT1ljcUh1eWxwM1BPbHU4VnFWOWRHMWNCYTlhQ0VESGgxTTBuSFdOa3U2Qmo2bHRfV2FDQy00NDl4NE9MN2Y3LV85Mm5JaUVXZFJNaFk5SVNoWVZXbXZVNkU0U2VvRG5xanBFTi1iS0hud21KZHBsYzlPSUFIdVk2bnYwRlFfc2NqODdXUQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQSUJBY25HYjlUaU9STTBWX2VycXdDbktZMjBDZ0xrXzRZbGdhTlo5UXF1djlIYmRLRmNJM1l6QUJZSXN0YXlhNF9SOUNfNzJTM0ZuNjZmUnhVbWVvd0dqMGZBcFZOMEhPVTNjZkdOU3BERnVYbjBtcVlwUmpSb0hwWGJVYjQ1YV9NTzNZc2xFcDA2dl9JT2g1bktUMkJMalBzQVM2NUVBMkxVenpEVGxIc1RzS2hBM0lSNXZOb2RSQW9MbFU3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/24/what-impact-is-the-war-on-iran-having-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPdkFVRklESDFYLXFHSFhfaWtsTkVnQkt0Z0hQcjNHb0hSbmxoX2U3WUhidy1oM1VxZVNqcGg4eGRrNHJlY2pRdXBQRl90d0hGNGs0dEpRR0RaQW5jR2F6OTBkdGZJX3JseDlmMWhsOF9WRVVoLUpTV2JLT0xYLXdXVlVRbG1pcDZTSW5Gc1E3QnVJZjkwNnlTNUQ3NGVEdFZBb3FtcmZUeDg?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/israeli-defences-questioned-as-iran-continues-to-cause-damage?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5491798/iran-serang-pasukan-israel-di-gaza-jika-gempuran-ke-lebanon-berlanjut
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz90gpyw90wo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQWnhpTVZWTm5IVFdUc0VzbnpHMXF5MFlMM0hWWDM5ZVV0ZWsxZmRvcTlWZks5OGZCT3huSnpsdUFfMXRLVnowTllnV3Q4eDlGUzdpbDgybjB2ZjBKQmZ5NmpFUGVpcjJIRUJFZGQxUFVzbnJEM21qNllDdUl6aGVrRVFkdGlpcnE5azhnVlJZUElEeWpyQ0JlTHJ0UjdlamFoVUVteC1pdTJaNGc4NzZhNl9kMTFvbGt2al9QRQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c625j162yy6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/moment-rescuers-find-man-alive-under-the-rubble-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260325000829qiS
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260324233310JGR
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
进展要点
- 石油：油价大幅下跌，纽约原油跌10.28%至88.13美元/桶，布伦特原油跌10.92%至99.94美元/桶，需关注供应动态和IEA行动。
- 黄金：避险需求可能上升，中东紧张局势支撑金价，但油价下跌或抑制涨幅。
- 美元：作为避险货币需求增加，但美国政策不确定性可能影响汇率波动。
- 股市：全球风险情绪受压，地缘政治风险抑制股市，亚洲市场或受中国政策利好支撑。
- 人民币：中国扩内需政策可能提振经济预期，对汇率形成支撑。
- 利率：油价下跌缓解通胀压力，可能影响央行加息预期，需关注政策信号。
- 债券：避险情绪推高国债需求，但供应风险可能影响收益率曲线。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 避险资产需求上升
IEA释放储备 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期下降 / 央行政策调整
中国财政刺激 / 内需增长 / 经济预期改善 / 亚洲股市受益
俄乌冲突升级 / 俄罗斯石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪升温
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQeFlEVTNsOTdEc0ljS0NNM3hWU2tyN3pDanhRRUI3X1NHazA0QlFZUURfMXJ6aFd5TVRrV3FSNkVUWEU1OEFfZGRFWUtHM2Z3cC1RM0dQTlpWZGNGTmN6RGFIM2kycjhsOU9mMG1SY2s1aTJTTnhOUTd1TWJxSEpFWExvRHV4ZDdhS0s1dEd3dnBMR3VXbUktUEVKNE13MnAwcnFydFVRa9IBrAFBVV95cUxORFlJeVpKaDUxalYzQlEzS2YyNkgwb2xuYVhFWGEzeGg3UXp4b1JVdzVJcTBwRWMwQWtCMjhXN29DNlg1WVdQX0FjbzVoZGlVcm9WYzQ2V3NCOEV0Z1hNTWtJSTJxeEVwR3pjZENmMWZrU29qdFZNWGJaMDdkcmMzUVIzd1g0RFVFMHlfZ0VFOGVqVHBPMzVteHliNjlkWnpxcXBKSHlJRGhHUU5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260323215112Kkk
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOUHkxVlFhd3UwODFGQzA3RmlSSF9VOG9KRE16MGs1RnQ1MTdaTEo5VlU2ZzVpeVpCNEJCYTY0OWhCaW1RdWdkZmZYQndOUzRhWjZ0S19XTWZVSlF3enBRbVVmR2JuU0JrR29MbnFJbXV6UTdhbGlVTHhIc2hpNXVUc2h2bGtyYWJCcU5PUklTWWxka0c0V256d2EyeHM4b251Z1EydVJZMDRJZTJhblRqOFE4cmZKdXpWM0NjMnpDa091ajBTVTk0TjFZMk96a0UtQ19HOFZ1WTdFSGNK?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxOWnRuRU44R2hpMFF3QXhhOGcwWWlrNDlBbWluQlVGblNQWjFDczNJbmZ3VGhWS1ZEUFZXUTh1Vk9UVjlVMHpsbWQxOFhBU2dpN1Q1eW9GT1JZNmxoNHNta2lDTUZaOTh6SUY5cUotblNhUUgxYUFvcnlfblBsNmp4b1hEMHV4Z3R1OGphUXF1bVJFaWFTaEI3RmFYQ2NmWFJieHNlWExPaHVyVFlJM1pxUW1qc1RXWWPSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWJ1UC1yMHl1c0I1UFQtQ3pKQUtoX0hhTmlJSFROUWluMkRJYjNsRHM3RlFfWDduUXdvVTFVNUJnS0Z2VlljbXZJRDlLbmVqdk1GWDJleHFQX2ZzMTlHR1NKczkybVdKSTFtdjl6MnhUTXFDUFBsZllxWms2NV9ZaXFRSmpSSkJPU2JRb0dDRE9aMm5jU1R1M2JfU1E
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/bahrain-proposes-un-security-council-191015009.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/c3ec2f52c91f48498322e5447855a248/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/532a958446c14f798d6c3c77956c7b8f/c.html
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/b617e78931ec4118a6258dc96ca5904e/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15Yy1taFh4aEtPNVBuTzdWTXN2ZWxhTE55ZzlUdVJ0RENRYzJ2MGctOXJFSzlsTnBhNFJqUXJGOV9HQWdkRGVJd211b1VueWpBdVRhNl9jbjNxdw?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxPRWtnS3JYeU8xM3A4S0NCMnA1U0s0QWRZbHpWQm9vVC14QkZCRks1cmU1NGJMbVcwbE41VGkxN1BYS1dwR1BxMkJnaWRab29NSVJwYUNzZlBFQk0zaEJlMmRNdTZwOGdXVjlsRXl3dDBmd0RMTjRtb3d5UnBQMjhCbVNqOFR4am8zWEg5dkNNQW1rdWs1blFGZnVDNUlDbzlUQVF1QXZIb3paYmthTTc0ZmFBb1VSN0RaUGY1eEZqcUVPZGpHRHR4LWJROEhXRmJNaEFF?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPZDBuci1xV3lJRmZiRTRrSEIycXJJbTBZcXA3T3dWSjQyM21ieHFFV0NfX3BQWUxyZnRQUmh1SGM1YVZZaXNOX2gxbk85M0hwZ2Ixd3ZiMEVLbEcxSDF6LU9GaGRIZUhwQ2dFdFVNenVkQ1NXSEtYSVR1MEJPNm5EbDdzY09sSDA?oc=5
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591666.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgJBVV95cUxOaUttbXZMVWI4Ri1UU3NjdVRhenVfZndFMFVXZ0dUNjdOaXBkMHk2cVJmTWVsckxqX0t2RGsxVVFMcGJRckFLRXo4ek9KQWRjUHc4ZzhmXzVqWTNjdUw5cDZxbWVTd3FmUjdYdjN0Q0RwdGtFTU11ekRPMzdRUkNoUVFieC1JZ0tueWJHRVFQZ1FleXBsQmg3QUNDdWxaWUNiZTBtbDQ3ODByVTVoMV9yblhURTZubkpEbzFsakVOYVRCbVI2SlFCbzVjWXpkRGNtcUZjVVhWeHFXcTd3bmxXdmE4QWduWjI0dFJDM1BtaHRlbVhmS3pyVjUtTjRma1pmTVlVODhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/115f499f8d94454299aca4391317ebef/c.html
- [15] https://www.president.gov.il/%d7%a0%d7%a9%d7%99%d7%90-%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%93%d7%99%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%91%d7%a7%d7%a8%d7%99%d7%99%d7%aa-%d7%a9%d7%9e%d7%95%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%95%d7%91%d7%92%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9c-%d7%b4%d7%a2%d7%9d-%d7%99%d7%a9
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591654.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNU2NYQUNVbVlyZVNkdkwxMkhPd1lVVTBPODdNV2VjOVd1UTlYVU9yWWM4RnJUWFhyUW5pNXQxc0FUWlRWNFNmUXVJLTAwNGpzVnJnZVpNZ0pZSGRqQ3FPeUllTWNOUGU0Q0dja0JaODQ4bG1IaU9SRUJsMGsxUzRlYkdFczdjNXRQYUdmN0h3VmpkUm9HWGNWUThwaw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/23/have-israel-the-us-and-iran-violated-international-law?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/23/smotrich-urges-israel-to-annex-southern-lebanon-as-assault-intensifies?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635973-israeli-minister-annex-southern-lebanon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/635945-netanyahu-trump-mossad-coup-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQTmVDemJya1pCcFFiaXg4X0tvQzd3dFVwZ3JYcGZPcW0zdDNoeF9TYWNEWWFiZ1BOb214clNtNDgxekt6Y1V1a2pqZENEZ3ZHXzA0SlpiWXgzNnhaTWFHMVh5MXd4ZktUTDFOQTd6QlpHaWU2N250S3ZzZENBMWw4T2g4V0htQW0yazdCYTh6RkFSRzYzazJsdWxNVUhBQjFCZnBNclBYZ1VJd1ZMZl9icjBvWmNSTHpTeXBn?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPWFBma2Z2eE8zN2Q1STNJYkpNbnhSbXhyUkE4MW1DZXRUcU51NjJaRjNQYUpnNEh5RHNnWHFxN2pDcUlrUkRZcHV4SS1reXViY0JCLUNxQjlvX3ZaNHlRTnItRUQyd2pxd2wxNUFRcXRKNU1zdVZrcXRKRkVIZE1YcEd1SGZIU1l2bHBTc010Zjhwcy03VENWdmdlZ01uVVFfbFdISVRSb192MHZudzUweVpQZzA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635916-us-iran-energy-attacks-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/ukraine-strikes-key-russian-oil-port-and-refinery?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/what-trump-said-about-iran-after-postponing-military-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/635922-persian-gulf-sea-mines/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104754-zelensky-warns-of-possible-russian-massive-strike-today.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE05UDBYcG9nNXA2c0NaNS1zRkNVWjlFODFSVW9Id3duaW5CVmRJemZLVWQwdkNHZml6Q01LVVVtbWg2RTZudXlLdXVHemZUNXpmN0taY1N6aVhHMGJWbmV0TTJPNnNtWmZxMU5USWM4MFZfN2liR190Rg?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPNG1XQ3RiWWFnZ1VRVmFUN1FHcHA1dEdDdnJXMjRabk52bTRKQTRxOEMxR3ZzUG40b3ZxaHZfM19ua2RJam5PdnI0d0R0NGU5VkwzU2Z3dnBqZUpMS0tNTDFyUHdMOGNCVW5KZ2hkZ2NGNXhLS1dIWG1wYlFoRG9wejRQNC1nVHdibkpfbFBHcS00ak9LU3Blc3c1RS1IbkRWeVFvSFVaZm1MZkZtSk92Q0lpdUNMRFk?oc=5
2026-03-23
2026-03-23
进展要点
- 布伦特原油价格维持在110美元/桶高位，关注霍尔木兹海峡动态
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，价格可能继续上涨
- 美元因资金回流美国而走强，兑其他货币汇率受益
- 全球股市下跌，欧洲DAX指数跌11%，日本日经跌9.3%
- 美国国债可能因避险需求而收益率下降
- 汇率波动加剧，中东相关货币如伊朗里亚尔面临压力
- 卡塔尔LNG产能损失影响全球天然气供应，推高能源成本
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀和避险情绪
霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 油价飙升 / 资金回流美国
伊朗报复性袭击 / 地区不稳定 / 黄金和美元上涨
谈判进展不确定性 / 市场波动加剧，影响资产价格
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQT3ZNV3EtM18yTjlzZDNUYlU3YXljZGRUY0o1N1ZXQ1FvXzVOWG45VUJ6SW1kNTRhU1hEQUpGMzVRVE5pUnNMazZ3VGxHc0lsZE1YRnFudndka255bTVEMFJnM2ZhdkZNdDdLbDIxWGxpbnBzRjlKQ05TWEJoR0JOekFncXpucVFHd1A4UVNnak0xd0lHMmxFemU2Ti1TTkHSAaQBQVVfeXFMT3V5aERRUlAxQmFnYk5NQXZ5ek9OaXhRdlVJTXVfbm9teTRsWDBPNmJxTG1hUW1kTkd4YXZaZHlSdTdlWFdWVGN0ZDB0QkdoOWhGbkRyZzQxRm1GN2pVMEJoWE9xWlRrcmRjYWNOY3NhX0d4REtuR1I2dUtEamJkMVJfZmdURHllNmRnb05qbTRUOWVqR1NxSTR1RmFhRnc5UWpwVlg?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxPV1l2bGRCNUZZSnBSb0JSc1RqdG4yZXRvV0cyczhsRDNtRHVyYWZjclhYdVJTZmZHR1RES01FbXNSZkZCUEM0Zm9DQkVFQW1xTDJaV0JJZi0xTkFrYmJFaTlFYVMwaHN4SjRMcVlNNGJMN21yZGdGQmVfQTJxUEctNnB4SzRyXzJWRVVTOUNENEx6eHhLVzhpR21UUHZYYUFKM0JXTWtoTXVkaVlUNXpoQl8yYVBJM2twdzBna3M5TTA2UQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/iran-claims-missile-attacks-on-key-israeli-military-bases?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230031383jb
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260322232612fdX
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNaHBrbloxQjlGRzJKSy00dEQ1Qm9VLTZ1VmQ3ZDUtNlZSYzhYSXE0WDYyLXJrSjZGd0lvS0s3Q2EyRzZieUtUWUlMb1loVmVfSUR5Y25rVlhnX092WEMwM0pNVFFQMS1ia2R4bmJhS1l4NHo3SUF4bHJxakVPdzZuQTBXSV8yblRoejhXcWtVVGFrNVIwM3F4czdmX0I4S0prSFJVVHR2ZmFNVTBhdE5PRm0zaWdaR2s3VW14dw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/moment-iranian-strike-hits-central-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323025052Hm3
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-hints-wind-down-war-051853034.html
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230243549b3
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/we-do-it-together-in-confidence-netanyahu-backs-us-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-to-chair-cobra-meeting-over-iran-wars-impact-on-the-economy-sky-news-understands-13523061
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/risk-of-escalation-is-extremely-high-as-iran-shows-it-can?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9jcnVocFJLNzlNR1REN0dXWWpZaGdOTDJUWTlZREdLQnlOcEtNZXdBbUwyNHQ4SDNmOURQNmZVT2hSX2xYeEdRUEh2dHp4WWp0b3pvREF1Smk2LWoy?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5XTFdWUGE5cERnZkhaTXJxOUM2cWFfNHJzMnNzbmxfQkNmTk53Z3dZdkdIM1F0Q1pNV2xRMVBjbWx5MEplVnZIbW5hdmdFYlRLdnBSSi1IYUhjNnN1Rm1TbDFfZ2ItbjI2?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNejFFOG1nc0JZSUs1clVVTEdvb0dOVVEwejJpUlRFR01RUWtfRFVBUW5iYkVpYXNoamxDSXVvVkJEa1JJWkQ3VmtsNDRqNVhfMVNvbUZHMlBocHZfUTFqdms2SGZjV1RnVUk1WGJ4YUNacU1FdUppblNjdGpBQU95N3o5d0x2bEJGYjVSMzJNQUx5djVjNm8zV2JfQm02S1NGeWlpRDAtY0pRQzBTRHfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTVhUbV90T0EwWEs0azhVbk9vN2JHWmx0dURSOTF3a19qUmxzMDQwU3JELTV2SmRsMUFKOVU3NFZxM0t4czFSUXVlZXJsRmtVZThxclpHamNoQWJadFdnX3k1U1pXa1h1TTNJT3B5Y29CeXJzXzUxbTdSbFlFaWhXYkpWdm5vVFJtRnpRRGVJd0tmU3ZVWjZLNXVUbGxZZkdwMEtOYTV
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/gas-prices-south-southwest.html
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFB4am5wWjBMYmt1ak8wT1dxNHdzTUJlaWd1ZFBxQ0hmYlVDVUdWeEZ2aFQ5aTJ6Q2I2LV9fcjhWMF9sZG1mMDlIRncwampXY1NhRnRhTlhkWlpjTmZaeU5EWTdDeGdkYXFfeEN2VzM2NXE4QQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNclpXV0tqN3l4dmxLZFBuS3IwUTFteTFSeGlxYUE3aENPSGdub0IyaEptN01JSnJudmZUaGlvUzktS19XOV9KTW9NVVFoWUdqRzdscjdTQUd3WWJLUTFxMWZtcTUwTXNiaExNYlFXLWpPcFEyQko1eXVHTENrQjlWYWczX1FBWDJlSHRnNjlwMXdOanBuSi1zMlZaVkk5N0lKUVR6cGE5ZDFsREdsRl9jRUp6UW7SAboBQVVfeXFMTmg3a1lwZFU0VElmREJJaUh5UjE5ekZTLTYwLUZuNU9Dci1rcDVRbXJrcWhBZUN1ck1kRWpLdldobDRqZUVnOFVDaEQtRjNoaVVNTVFoN0FlODdjNnE5dmR6TlZfNjh3Z0YwSmVsYlVYODQ0MlRMRXN2M1lVRVJabi1tbHNJRGtDX1g3YXpRV0tadXZweklUTmdlbEJTRzd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323003254LDq
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iranian-authorities-taunt-us-israel-eu-amid-strikes-and-assassinations?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/21/42609
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBxQlZJNlZWNXI1Q1ZVMmVMaHFKc25vekYtQmtqZl81cjk2SDRQQmRuTUxyU2RnZ3JfSkhxMzhZYkdiSWJEX2hDbGdxYzdDTEdJZndZakdJSENmQXdmajlDNWY2ekdoajFYQy1LZW5wV3dDQ09nbTIxaG9lZzVjLVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/trumps-changing-messages-on-iran-war-what-does-it-say-about-us-strategy?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c3v6k0l631vo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iran-says-will-hit-regions-energy-sites-if-us-israel-target-power-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104328-iran-launches-nearly-30-missiles-and-drones-at-uae-today.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQbEtmcldBb2JsM1BrQ2pUdFpRS3JVZTZmSXBjZ0R4WHVqS201OTVJcWFHQ3Q1eVU1WERjTkx4bjM1MmprVGV4VFdVQl82TkdjOTlzQkpybmpqQ1lORGZjMy1vRWR2OUxhOUVlRjR0VmxJel9lT1ZySGZzdDZ0THhDVmhELTljbXZvV0dzWWRHVFVWcEx1?oc=5
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPbWJzdnNvOUlTV2Iyc2tVaVJuTjh5ZmJNb3JWLW9SemFheVo5OGRObFZ6MkVuSGRvNzE0ZXMwdEJfOGh1NWw1MTloVXQyZlplTG1GQ21zWDN5MXA3WmZEa0hPek1XS1k3a21sVTlCQlR0UXR5YTJ0WTV2Vnk5Z1pSR1FDRVg?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/opening-strait-of-hormuz-will-probably-require-us-boots-on-the?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-22
2026-03-22
进展要点
- 原油价格因中东供应风险可能进一步上涨，布伦特原油看涨至高位。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格可能突破关键阻力位。
- 美元因避险情绪走强，但受美国政策矛盾压制，波动性上升。
- 全球股市面临下行压力，尤其能源密集型行业和欧洲股指。
- 国债收益率可能因避险需求下降，尤其美债和德债。
- 欧元兑美元受欧洲经济担忧和能源风险影响，可能承压。
- 大宗商品如化肥价格因供应链中断上涨，威胁农业和粮食安全。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市承压
能源价格飙升 / 企业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产抛售
北约内部分裂 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动增加
来源
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOenB5SlRRNUV6NHphaFY0R0lraWlzNVVJMTU5UVRlZGlGZnJMTnRuQkthQTljUkZ5ZDRxbDNJanJ2Y19LWUJqdjV2WXUxdXpoc09HcTU4NmZhS1dqc2ZnTlFiaFBjanRmZlNoZzlybjJKNGxQVHRCOHdXWHNkdUFyUGdDenkteUF0dXgtM24xcnBTd0NZZnY5RVJmXzIzN1ZxN2xGNklUNktzMmJMcUhrYtIBtgFBVV95cUxNR1RCUHlVcnJ5R1ptMFBMMWtxa2l2SERnR016ZEJBY0xXZENsSWoxcXowRmVLNTZ6MVg4UjNQR2FfUUlQdXBYWmZFQ2NjdUZ2WmFEaUdGSjJYSng3SGRiN3JYSFdvMHhvMjJOdGQ3YXhNcEo1SzBsbDFZZ3pNOUlUTVViQ1J3WFlPTjZ6ZWg4UVBTRFRZWTVVSFdxWXh4amVMMWx
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-natanz-nuclear-facility-hit-by-us-israel-tehran/live-76462692?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/635767-iran-war-destroy-nato/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQVEZnZGJQU0pGcTExb2l3ZWh5SGNLeXJZdGI4eHJneGRxRTVuM05INXEzWWd4V3NNRTNXMnE0b2diQXZCRFNqTGNyVTBLMDhRdU5iakVqRjhSd25VRHVqX05xcDNYVnlkbG9QdkY3TklXa0Z2eVEzSGNBdXktMzh2blRtUU1odzRpS3prV0V2VQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-iran-military-attache-and-four-team-members?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/iran-strikes-towns-near-israels-nuclear-site-in-escalating-tit-for-tat?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOR2lrdEJGdV9VNWlrWWNzbFJhMlZTbDNPSjFmNzJuODN3MzBodndkd0I0dHZvWDNDRDc5SnYtdDNMVkpRaUJJNEtjc2xzdlBNelBjekNpT2Z4aFktUGRpdmJkQ0VBNGVVQUJDY2ZWZTh2SGRIc2Y5c3dxSXBIVVNFOG1lUHNPUQ?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNYk5oblh1ejY5YnJGbDFTQTUyaXZ2MDV6QUJRU2pPemM4bmJQVWowd0NsT1hxbmRSa1JXX0xKWkhPSVV2T05ySXZJNHJPQ0I1VWdtdlZZQ1JVU19NbjhuMkU5T3JKVWFUZmZZenlBZHlteUtWdm5uc2FMX251dUJRVzZpdU1ETThVVU1ySEg3U2VLeHBraDBVTUNTMFBjejl3NTRrUjZveFBDNGQ2YXM3MGl0VE13cVFsT0xjOWlVeHBXS1Rt?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/state-of-emergency-declared-as-iranian-missile-hits-arad-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/us-says-it-has-crippled-iranian-threat-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOZTBKLU8wNmJnX2wwQmRDQmUwXzFFOGN5a1NFU2NBckQ3ZUV0SWJPNkYzRERhMDVBNHNmWDNWNnZUeFNkRnZEbDd3cG9CN0RlaHJmUVhQc0RRZWFMMWJQV2gxdEZ2bXBXdlBNYXhoQldEcTVMV2EtRXByWlVrbGdYcmZmSzZtMW5iVF9kNnRxWUV3MElMMGFtcFlLYWd6LTgyWVlHYXBuWTB4UzRDMkhV?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNYmRtY3N4SWpBdERQM2sxSk50ZWVsN1Q3ZmstTDdCM0dNM0dsaW80WlliTTAzQ1oyOWdXZEZIek4ta2JQZW9XX3lmTkZhalM5SVFhQ0IwemdETWhLN1k3T3YtOHc1Sm9jSGFHSnNQbVhRdG01bmFKRmR6QnBCV1VoR1NndEhTTWFnekFLWlN4cEJ3ZUZheVVEYmtCRnRKXzhGZ1RwWUt1ZWNUendWRnZaMmRjMDlTYjREaGJrMGZrbHg4QQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9PY0h2QzNpNTdxaGI5eWJ5SE05US1rMEdQX213MGdIeWF6eFB1bFBxQWZUM1RjOEpBQm9NeEpHekpXZmZLWldjMmN1bllEZk5jUktTeWxsb3ZIMXp2?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxORmV1TE01QU9sR19VLVR6aURXTzAtVFV6dk90b3FTOXZtcnZQYkM1bjVheTJBVklNbFhpVE54dDFrT29KWl9FZ1B3a3RqdmJXMkktWVluQzBSMlM1QlhmcXpLSmY5T0M4VFpzWElIeF84MXVsRE1LdFIyMEozVjZmd0w2WDl3MmM5eUZTcExPX2VqOGdDZXlSQ0liLUlwY0JZ?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE1jRGZTUnJBRzJkVGdEbHV6TVlzbU1IS2cyeWt4UjhsUms5QVRWX20ydVVkWVN6aWlzOFdMVVhWT3JOT2sxS2J0aU9FLUVjSDRCRS16MEttQnJydzZL?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOV0ZCVlJKLTM2NFJwX3ZJT1Y1aXNwNW02eXl5dVJvZXU0QnBOM2lHakgyaklXLUVnX0NLVlp2M3FVRHdueEp6TFdUeHVYakI4Rm53Y3V2YVZBU0pVWUtyeWp1S2phNDZlTHNid1lvSG8tSld3S1M3UzZqSTNSMXlrbmxsX0FtMTVVblVLbHR2YTc4YTNUQTk0SXVCYWVzcjAtVnZPMXoyNVBBb0JyeTY0aE1Uck9YQQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQMGpleDBJbHI1bVNsXzZGSDZRV0xqV0dnOXV6ZHlMRjRmSFhHMDh0bXJOT3ZoSnJ5NEdzMFY3SFdFeDE1S3VMakhJa2o3aXZoT05zcnpCcXcyQlp3dzVjVElOU0dUdVl5WXo0TUdvRzlLd1pUOUR3YVhCT0ttc2FKUl9NS3FGd2t2MEZtUmdlTUFlejRoYzR0MDRlWnBwakw1UnlheEx5LS1fX005UzhqM0Z2UdIBuAFBVV95cUxNT2FDODNFRkZtSkgxNk5adk93MEI2aTRvdXR3VDZFZkRiYURzN0lRTGdHV2JlRGxWb1liTzVFX3lzLUpaTmJUYnZySmxSbG5rUlBVTmN0aDhzYkY3TXhIdjljd0NvT2dGQWczbXFwMEl1MHBxa1d1bXlxM28ySG8yb0VLU1I4aFZkeGJweHRnR1JRNVlCM3QwYS1Hd1V1bE1
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQWXNaYUpMSHBaQnM0a2Z2MGlfOUg0RmJMR09TSUE5ODVPQ2pqTG9JVVJBVFJyQ2RZYlgzZEhLRUFOdkpYTWRLc1owYUptMjNfQnFfcmNlankxTWdUbzF3T2hQSHp3bTF3cVlSbW1EVkdsVV9lZlRoc2JRM0t5aGF1SG1ZTW84YS1raUt0WGQwNG44YnBzMGljZEFVWmJkZ9IBowFBVV95cUxOUGY4SXRpMGJyRm5UUVVsU1J5NF9OeWxUWjc3dDFyWDZGUi1OWC1uRERQNWc3RFFNX29WTUtReGwyR2JmdHdZZ0JvSnVpZmZJVVNIRnZOQTl6VFBSaTc1dmo2aWN1bVBaS2gwbEtaaGlXSFU3VUo4VnZUMkVwa3NvTGk2YVpSbm9QQ0VnRENsSnp6TE80SmpaeUVyM2ZPclpnTG53?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/eu-urges-members-to-start-storing-winter-gas-as-iran-war-causes-price-surge?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635748-how-far-could-gulf-conflict-spread/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNVWlPb3NHWEZYUV9FTjBCVndXbFNZVnFyWXRNbHJDU1JnNlRXbmhqb2g1UjR5a2xQcmNIZWJCMHVKelA1YXk5NEFnTmdfakhETnUxUmVhazIxSTNUUmtHTVpJMklkOHdMUEVHZno1cEJ1NGREMTBURTJEOTV2Zy1YYU5YaURjb1RqcEhMYWxiWFJaeWxVZFBIaEhhZ2pxOTREQTR1TmFPRlJoMDBCeWUyWkRoU1Ftd0NGVkY2dlI4dnE4UQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-teheran-sieht-keinen-anlass-zur-diplomatie/a-76449132?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/israels-regierungschef-netanjahu-der-iran-wird-dezimiert/a-76447499?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/us/politics/battle-for-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-us-israel-choke-point.html
- [26] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/opinion/iran-war-trump-lying.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxQOXk3X1NwMHZYN0w1dmM3eDZkd1FVeDFLM2tsU0V1eGhqdE9RTmpPZ0RKb1NvdlM3VzlON2R3U3RzQU5vbEZHT18xQU0wQkZFZVZPQ05XUW5rS1lsdS1wQWhpaTBoTlZpNzlhYzZzN3R6R2szOHZjd2UtUklKMUNERWJkaTgybkFXbTdXOG1ta1RRQlFOaFU2bg?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/uk-says-iran-missile-attack-on-diego-garcia-failed?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQV2FMRkxCdzFTXzRNTHYyOWhyTXo3TDJ3b3M0MmpRMjRvVlNLRG1FMGNyUFQxRWFoNlRNbDBaYnA2Z1ViRVM4dmZuM043d0FZR3gyUkUzLU10NjdvRE44VU9ST3h5cGdqVmo0ZGdjWHBvcUM3ZmVjaW1WZzMtNVY3aHpFNXQ5Qk84V29vYU1renF6SWdJcTNxSkFGbEs2Zkg5ckwwV0dVc0E4Y3d4Yk5ydVNsZjRPWDVwYTkzQkJ2MHFLRXVX?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104133-war-update-43-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-most-intense-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
2026-03-21
2026-03-21
进展要点
- 石油价格受供应中断和制裁解除影响波动
- 天然气价格飙升超30%，关注后续走势和库存数据
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，价格可能进一步上涨
- 美元走强，受益于避险情绪和利率预期
- 全球股市下跌，科技股领跌，纳斯达克指数跌2.01%
- 利率市场关注美联储政策预期，债券收益率可能上升
- 能源板块相对抗跌，但整体市场情绪谨慎
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 美联储政策收紧
能源设施袭击 / 天然气价格飙升 / 工业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 股市下跌
地缘政治风险 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 全球资产配置调整
来源
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/03/19/joint-statement-leaders-canada-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260320-guerre-au-moyen-orient-faut-il-craindre-un-choc-gazier
- [3] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/20/42592
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/635536-iran-israel-qatar-war-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE1aakJWRHJxUEJERGhITlRxS3ViX19sYlltZVl4ZVBLMU93bFJ1Q0k5SWtpWFBUazlHN2x2bU5GdXcxM0dyMU82Qm9tQzhQTnZUVEZtd2xn?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-considering-winding-down-iran-war-but-rules-out-ceasefire/article70767398.ece
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-donald-trump-erwaegt-nach-eigenen-angaben-militaereinsatz-gegen-iran-zurueckzufahren-a-ada3a0c1-bf0d-44a1-a66d-48a23b3223ff
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-trump-says-us-close-to-meeting-objectives-opposes-ceasefire-with-iran/articleshow/129709333.cms
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260321000353315
- [11] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/uk-allows-us-to-use-bases-for-strikes-on-iranian-missile-sites/article70767389.ece
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE02b180dHpSREozbXl6aUtXazlWMWVsX3FRUUQ2ajZBUF8zSk8wUnMyLVBQTXNWbGRSUlNObzNFYjQ3MXdfMTVkZGQ5eExKc19VT3B5RQ?oc=5
- [13] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/jerome-powell-says-blame-data-135528565.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQbzljM25ZTGhrbUF5R2RCbXF2SEFmS09GRGNoUHBaci1yQUwtVjZ4N1hMWXdEbGFpUnR2a0VEdzlFa3dBODllYlFyMnBtYzE1ZmdVcV9vdUNoX2hPeUZoaFQ4dE4tejhrY2lGRFRUX0NmUXhDaTVzRG9jUFJjVE9QYWZZZHp3Vi05ak1IQml1LXQwTTE3OElXaEppaHBQSWpVT0NRTnRvVGk?oc=5
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260321/945422910d2849e09b2b921213e0d9f5/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxOdWxHRGNTTnpjZlUxTS12aU9UalFlaWtfblctTVluZFJlaTFyRU9SWGM0d3FtZVAwTEpQaWhqT09iUWpaLUNSbkt1eXJlVnB3UmRGUlZ5QjZYSEhOTGNGWHZ3TmJMY3UzSk42azZ5dlo1MmhsSnBybnJuNERfbnpNSmNINTFBOTZEb0FUUlFwNk5HTGhFa2xremlnQUNjUlVGS29uVkctZUhJeTVZaVNUQ19kMi0xUWVyeXVscVVRR0x3TktfTGJUbg?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxORHZrQk1BTFNOV2h1Y1FDV2pPeV9BeHVvVnZNWTdxOGlpWnBCOFlHQnhtamcyUW1tREd6SzVOSmM4UXZ5UjJXWGFHZ0tSZmNacG9jWlJPanIzTm1ETXBlbHZJMmo4b1lvWnFzd3NmaDJHaGxIZy1MSy02cHQ4bE4zNFJSZVlQOTVTTDNyS2dBTC1uMFZwTHg1OTJvSXpQbEZlTVVGdmdveFhXcHVEdW91bGlPd2FmMWlaU0tZ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/03/19/declaration-conjointe-des-dirigeants-de-lallemagne-de-la-france-de-litalie-du-japon-des-pays-bas-et-du-royaume-uni-sur-le-detroit-dormuz
- [19] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1048858/irgc-iran-nyatakan-juru-bicaranya-tewas-dalam-serangan-as-israel
- [20] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/ran-threatens-global-tourist-sites-as-us-boosts-forces-amid-escalating-war/article70766856.ece
- [21] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-usa-west-asia-trump-netanyahu-live-updates-march-20-2026/article70764069.ece
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-authorises-us-to-use-british-bases-for-strikes-iran-missile-sites-targeting-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-/articleshow/129708297.cms
- [23] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260320011500315
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/20/military-movements-indicate-trump-is-considering-iran-ground-operation?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/20/aje-onl-aj_tt_irn_whatdoeseudo_av_v2-200326?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4103929-russian-forces-intensify-pressure-across-multiple-frontlines-as-weather-shifts-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36rny6xgppo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPSnQ0UDZwS2cyZlZwNFoyVF8teHlLb0Ywekt0TlQxdnFFeXVDRG44THZJMHltMGFSa3dGV1JVc3Y1SlJVUm4tM25RWVM4SDNmcXByZkZidTkwcmpaZEx1Y2R5NzRXU2lPZnhSQkVYUDhva3Q4X3Myc3p2Tl9PNGdNOHJoa25kQ3NyUlVKSWg0Q2ZZaEN1Mzd1dkFlaXg4cVQ0LVdSeDNTX0JZd9IBrwFBVV95cUxOU3VyWWdnczEwTGhoUkJGU21DNUQzVnlCelhSbV83MlQzR3NzYVlpYTQ5UmRzcXd4VTB1QUtjd1NDUldEVEc3akhFVzBCdDZCS1pqbHROMmFKVnBDOGp3eURMcUxTajNxcFRyNjh6Ynlrd2hRbGQ2cWxNci1wbE53SWI0bkVBYTNPRVRFRm9MODFXNnNCWlUxMVhJLVZ6UzZJcWdTRFVkQVJ
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOSTQyRFM1dE03MXExaXc0LUJRcEdMTlhJSXFIbTRwSVdKcGVkbVJmUXdzQ2FELTJydXVKVXNhV1RIdXdhdkpac2lJeWl4VGNsXzV1dHMyMHpEMmdrbkVLQXByZG5PRlB4UjZ4UkhieGhmZ0tzdXdJTGxUNXJERXlBQUN2dVFXR3ItNTFnMEktdzZuOUQ4ZTRRMDcwcXNxZkJkTndjbWdzd2doVnNkTm9fbFFpR25QSzA2ZDFGVmRMNjhzbkxZVTM1TUI4M21NaVVPM1lKVUJIQ091VHZz0gHiAUFVX3lxTE4wSkFiaXg0MVFmOGh1MEN6b0N5V1FSZUVqb0FiUzNtZy1Qa3dRT3VHaFNqNzRRYUt4aUE0ckU2S0kzQXlhZWtxZXAzN1R6eFBBTEJPYlhYS0R3UlpTV0pqb1hFT0hiMWxDRld4cG5BQ3Jab0EyYnR
2026-03-20
2026-03-20
进展要点
- 石油（WTI/布伦特）：地缘供应中断风险是核心驱动，布伦特已逼近110美元/桶。关键看美国制裁政策会否实质性松绑及SPR释放消息。
- 天然气（TTF/亨利港）：卡塔尔LNG设施受损影响长远（3-5年），欧洲天然气价格面临“海啸”风险（普京特使警告，RT News）。
- 黄金：地缘风险与核担忧支撑避险需求，但美元走弱可能限制涨幅。关注是否突破前高。
- 外汇：美元指数大跌0.87%（新华网），欧元、英镑等主要非美货币升值。若避险情绪未全面主导，美元可能继续承压。
- 美债：战争融资需求增加可能推高长期收益率，但避险需求和美联储暂停加息支撑短期债券。关注收益率曲线变化。
- 股市：能源板块受益，但整体市场受制于高油价引发的通胀和增长担忧。地区冲突直接相关行业（航运、保险）风险上升。
- 比特币/加密货币：作为潜在避险或风险资产，其表现需观察是否与美股脱钩或跟随黄金。
关联路径
中东能源设施遇袭 / 油气供应物理中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策更趋谨慎 / 增长预期下调
美国政策分化（增兵 vs. 松绑制裁） / 能源供应前景不确定性增加 / 油价波动率上升 / 通胀与增长预期模糊 / 资产定价混乱
美元指数大幅走弱 / 资金流向非美资产 / 欧元、英镑等货币升值，新兴市场资本流入压力减轻 / 全球风险情绪局部回暖
地缘冲突升级 / 传统避险资产（黄金、美债、美元）与战争相关资产（能源、国防股）获得资金关注 / 市场内部轮动加速
来源
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-last-24-hours-show-a-prolonged-conflict-could-do-calamitous-damage-to-global-economy-13521949
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/635540-israel-iran-chain-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPWmJURWNuNE1qQXlDVW9CZ1VsdXg5bFFDazhKdTczM2FNcS1BRzB4YTNSbVcydkZQWFJ6OEZlMk5EbzFzVnpOUlNDVnZQd2hVc053d1QtR2pBUHBPbl8xNzVNVnBtWEdtVFc2RnZldlVvUGU3Z0NUY2QzU1Z6TEd1c0tDUWNhOGlDSExHQ25ydUZSMmloYncyVF9HMWRLYTTSAaQBQVVfeXFMT185TFFjVUItV29qMHhGRmlSRWpMaU9oVzV6RHgzYk0ycjJLZFBHNlRITXhQbWlzdFBNZ2p2MW9BaWJsekJxRHhvTWVPYmRwdWhhTk9lUXh4WDBOZXFtajhuRjN5QWRZNE5OMHhUWndXa3lZQ1BxZFBwbXR2bXhUWndzQ1ZLa1cwRjlydzBHWTFERjExeUs2bTFySzYxd0w4VmhZTVU?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1wM0VKYWFMRnNkN3VCZkwwU0RqdUJadHhzTnVpeEdwaFFBUENvcWlEb0dFTTFmWXQxZDBnMmFXcFN4SjJuMzlfUGt5QkhBNjctRWFQb2lDZjJKZXluVWhhT0lMSkEtRzIxRnRrcXAzNE5nU19MQXVIdw?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxNVFZrODBQekpaMWh5Z1ZGbmlGcjZwNUxzb3BQOTlmQlpIVmgzeHZmZFRTUjk5QldEbDVDakZjZWV1aVEzOThxVjc5cjVsaWl6cFNPRmZBa0o0eEVSU21kcHNISkJqUS1ZNGVibkJZUTJzdzVNYy1lZ2FwZ1JkN3Vlb1JKcWVobzQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQSW95TzhWVVJJWG50bTRTME5QRHJqeTM5TW95ZXhHTGJwQW9mY25FaXJCUVhpb1ltc0NkX0U0OWV2Z3lVSkxfN3lha1JLNjRFQ1NfQ19MUTBQRENKdFVNbDNZNkd3VGlQcXhFXy1MWmVaaUt4Uk1kY2hzUXRMb1d4WHh1cFdyZmgxbmg1XzBvNkd0VFJ1VlhLQ0VDdjY2RFBxaVlIYlhqZktHODR6WUhGeA?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/635572-invasion-incoming-lebanon-braces/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/635565-eu-energy-tsunami-dmitriev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2k3jgy9vq3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOak42eXk0ZnZVMURLQUp6N29pWFp4LTFydHpLQ21XUTNMOUI2LWdiXzRKUGpjS0hlZ2NhZ1VBb0N1M0o2cXpzcllFTTRPUy0yalZRbTl5aUJrZGFkTmFLSXdRSmZFdy1TelUzOXRobmFVbnQ1TEJlaFIwZURrTjVJMWw2eXgwVmFKN3hVNWhiQm5JbjNqRUdqcDUwRjFJTkFBMUU4UXA1Y0VwaGpRdzZVUjFQbw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOZm05M1lGcFZGVEVReFcyb3pUWjlEdjRhVHNEeHJYNGhMSHh2b0JLVVZ3eGFzdFNRcWFxekR0clBLNVlYRjl3VFNLYTZ3ZEZNRkwxcUdOamdTU1UzWGVQVXJ2SVBCYTJabmFfdEowZkk5SGotUzUzT0lPV0NSQTN4eUpNclg3QnNpQVpZ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/netanyahu-says-irans-uranium-enrichment-abilities-destroyed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOY3NCMFFRSk1hc1p3enhncl9PTEFaNk5CVzh6MUdONFhWajhyX1oxUmlPT2I0akNjM2hYeHQzQ2NEdTlaZm5EVkxSdEQ0RnlpOE9TRG4yZkhpNTUzRWlFdUcwa3IzdGhZeGsya0FqTWN5X2ZUV0JlQ3l2Sm9RQTk0RXN1YUZqRWJob0wyS0hIOXpzdWxHMm1yRUJvWHA4d1dWMFp3MjV2cWhkNEdDVEpmTFRoaVJ6UHdfRHBKTEdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/19/how-will-israels-decades-long-assassination-policy-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260320/aa83628e1d4b4717abc8aeb37835e488/c.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOd2Y1WG9fV0tUOExiVW44aHZJS1pKeHZxXzA4TE1kUFdHOHN2YVpnXzFWdFEwSmZQMElYV2FHaHYyUy0zcklRLXRMN2oxTFZ6UThXdnZHTWI3Z0tfdHNtUW41RUxfUVFnbXdlTVhzNkREWC1wSDFiRDBCWHFvRzh4T195Y0FTR1pUTEhOSmJucTNKNWxYRER1NWdyZW84MVB2S1NTRnhzSFZGUkQ2N3A5QdIBtgFBVV95cUxOZDBjWTNKZ2pMMmdmd1dJVm9GbkR2ZDVFQkxBSDA4SXpQODVMNnM5M2trRV83N1luZFJXTXBlNUU3Nml3SDhub0xWQkRvaUlmMVNJTlJ3UHNPcG9WdjNLbUxKWWdaaGpLSTRibXpQNlBNX0JrcFpINDhGS1NBWG1fR0ZKUGtiNkxjUTZlTGw2eWRZMDJjZ2ZpNzRPcVc5cHViU3I
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQUGZKYzlydEdoTGdkSkRqbzg1RU91VzdKY05qdGVPa05CcnlWdGtYS2I1Y0hhZkRUWlZIdlBKNlctaHYwNVJzellDX2t0cTZHNkFMTklvS2Q0d2xkQ3N0MjFPN1hKamczZGdwU09RY2FtSy04bm1OM3JTMk51YTdJZWFNUDRxdmJNWHpkOUlHdlFwZVVUZlN0ajdvZEZ3NzFlclg2NW9tbHJ0V3lkc1HSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlpBU1JtbG5EM0tmTXprTloxZW1vRXN3d1dHcHYtUDVManJFS09abUpjS2dONzY0SlJBS21fcjBmdU1kYzc0d0NhaHp5NzBBbkdkTWYyWHhmOHk5M1dhdUZDT0JiWVRDQzhQby1jUVJhM3ZnalBjZHNHT3VNX0l2bXpqNmw0cjZzNTJKTmNEZVJBeHpiczF0YnZYcHY0NnRzSXhGbmR
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/trump-invokes-pearl-harbor-to-defend-surprise-attack-on-iran
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA1REoyQjZ2WDdyZVdTeVZsVTN1TTZfUE5wdi14QVZyU3RyblAzLWkwNXdibjNVaDZpa3BSOWxBZ3I0MzdRUGp5Z0N1ZWF4YjktZVBkODhvalNTUkRYTWxQMzM0Njlxd2s?oc=5
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/635548-who-nuclear-catastrophe-iran-us-israeli-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635550-us-help-ending-unlawful/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635571-saudi-arabia-threatens-military-action/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/smoke-rises-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel-oil-refinery-in-haifa?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/irans-strike-on-qatar-gas-facility-will-reduce-supply-for-3-to-5-years?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://unric.org/fr/onu-et-la-guerre-en-ukraine-les-principales-informations
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/df75ca68d5a7da27.html
- [29] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/b4a912bebbbbdbf0.html
- [30] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-debate-us-bases-military-alliance/a-76414229?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
2026-03-19
2026-03-19
进展要点
- 油价：WTI和布伦特原油因中东供应风险飙升，关注价格波动和库存数据。
- 黄金：作为避险资产需求增加，金价上涨，需监控持仓和央行购买。
- 美元：避险货币走强，美元指数可能上升，影响全球汇率。
- 美股：道琼斯、标普500和纳斯达克指数下跌，关注板块轮动和盈利预期。
- 利率：美联储利率路径受关注，国债收益率可能因避险需求变动。
- 外汇：CAD因加拿大央行政策稳定，其他货币受地缘风险影响波动。
- 能源板块：股市中能源股表现相对抗跌，但整体市场情绪承压。
- 避险资产：包括日元和瑞士法郎，需观察资本流动。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
美联储利率不变 / 市场预期兑现 / 美元稳定和全球资产重新定价
避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市和风险资产承压
地缘政治风险 / 区域安全担忧 / 避险资本流动影响新兴市场
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
- [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318b.htm
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNR3J4NDFISFF6T0kzdlJHRVk2OXBLYzBLOU5vd2Vnd0E4aVJ4UFlnbDVWVk95VVg1RkotVnpfRHp3ZTR0NlBaeHRLQkJmN2E1b1hJUWtoOFVPNVZSa2wzTC1HOTZsVXQ4RlhvZjJpSEU1UUxzcjFwdzE1YzdYckU3MkZCVUhCZUcwRVJRZkJYRm1wMDkyRkt0WHRXbHU1RE8wcTJPRQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1tVnlOakNMOWNBeHY4ZEZ2YUNJcm1fa0lwYUp2enhhMk42LVU1YTdVN1Fkc3VRUzJrQ25iTE1BWW83X3g0TzBXMkRycTdNcmUtcU55SEhOX3A0T1gyZ1liQ1hfUnNOWS1JLU1hd0RQa3g1SUpMUG43Ug?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPVHE4X3NRdDRKd0g0Nnk5ZHB6WlFRdno4WmxLaEllMzQwM2R5aEozYzhXbFAwOHNYOVNyYmpidTc5WTlxdnNUWkdUS3ZNdUdmMGxYMVdjSnl4ZXpEZFQyTlJPSnAwU1RQOXQ5SWtlNjVVNEZFNS1vM3hvMGVvemhteUwwdGlWQQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/opening-statement-2026-03-18
- [7] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE02WGtUSTZvd0JlblNhWEZSOWhnb25vOGduUnZNdXM2NlFoVzJjcjRZa0lyU3NxX0FvTmxNRjc5d1h6Z01wYnZkQmREUVl2RmNZclhVd1N3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589119.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589120.shtml
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPMjVEUTJYMC1BVTVmVHlzdWcwRFZYMy1jbjByTHVuNUNEbVoyTzBweGNKTkhLM25WMTl2OHZaNXdEOHZQaFF2bTR0OGV2RFRxbTVNUjNoTFdnYnowcDlrRnFjbXZKS1RnN21FRUxPczhQUXE5b01QNTkzSXJRdzBpMlZkMzY1VVEzRE03X3J6a0FZaThfb3d4RG5vY003Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/e04604ffe1ac44368326e7851d83b5c9/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/635458-qatar-iran-israel-gas-field/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/us-fed-keeps-interest-rates-steady-amid-economic-geopolitical-uncertainty?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNRmVjTnI1V3hDTXFoeDg2b3N2dXFHN2RNSS0zMmpjSHEtZm1uMVNtc2dzeXpXcHZZS0sycllGcVRuVVE5Si1vS2JFV0JnbXJGbVhUT3k5dU9XeUlLNklUbC1JQmlOUWdSUms4eWxHVVlhM0x5WEJuRVVaODdoNmVmcE9PUURyODZfTXI5ZFh0RDk2MzQzcVlGdG00THh6WjNESWFv?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/oil-prices-surge-after-israeli-strike-on-iran-gasfield-irans-threats?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/18/israel-attacks-irans-major-gas-field-in-new-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/qatar-says-iran-missile-attack-sparks-fire-causes-damage-at-gas-facility?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5lc3FVRHNRZUVLakw3bUdsamVoWi16ejB4UHM2STgxQ2ZRcy1BcGFSQk1aUF96cWRuN1Rpa2wwcjVSSlBKMmxuTjRqQUZ0WnJleHNENHg1SnRudw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/c4c0f387210b408aa707a72cdffef069/c.html
- [21] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/84180bbbcd7e8151.html
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36364d06x3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/4d2a6afdb40a47df8b989ac5bd9813be/c.html
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2d1dz14k51o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPYV83RFlCb19LTWxsUnRHQ09lYmloQWthRHNMX0wzbWNpbU4xVFZEOGdUaDJWcFVlNjFDQXlyMHpuS2RCNnJpbk1lQS02bE9KZDlnNjdkZzNjc3E2aHdNLUtFd3pOT0dfQmZ2WjFOelRyODYwT1lKaHVEcUE1aVp5U0I3N2lQOEZ6b0JrcHhYY1lHNDZHa3hPLWdCdEg?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNbV9scnVOenFHVWJFYWdZYTFrTWVHM2lPLXdQRGF3azFrTFNJVVUwYXFCYk5lUk9oWi1wSTY0dVFFeHBhRHltc2ItemNZeXByS1A5TTFoRWdYR20weUhaZi13OWszX1ZKdi1oZ0VsNUd4UWM5RHNyYXBnRnNnVjlwMlVIRzU4ZG1UZ3VpVGhiclFhQy1oak01OVE4cDA3STRod2taQnkySQ?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWWZCT3pudllWSmc2Ukd6ZVNvQVhNaUhfS2RzMXlnLU1KVUxNeXRLQzFacWNaTVJBQ2liRXFIaHJwWjJrWV95WDB4Z3NzUUlLYWZYY3d3WENRZno5cWhoVDJyb2tOTmh6Y2dpRGFQU2EtOEVPNUJYekdMWHJGeW1LVk9YYUJKd2Nm?oc=5
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-iranian-intelligence-minister-killed-by-airstrike/live-76402968?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260319001319INl
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260319000114lZ5
2026-03-18
2026-03-18
进展要点
- 油价面临上行风险，布伦特原油可能突破150美元/桶，甚至触及200美元/桶。
- 避险资产如黄金需求上升，价格看涨，受地缘紧张和通胀担忧驱动。
- 美元因避险需求可能走强，但受美欧联盟风险影响，波动加剧。
- 全球股市承压，能源板块分化，高油价推升成本并挤压企业利润。
- 债券收益率因通胀担忧而上升，尤其是石油进口国如日韩、欧洲国家。
- 外汇市场波动，石油出口国货币如沙特里亚尔可能受益，而进口国货币承压。
- 黄金和石油相关ETF及期货交易活跃，市场对冲需求增加。
- 亚太地区股市受油价冲击显著，日韩指数可能因能源依赖度高而下跌。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡受阻 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀飙升
美欧联盟紧张 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
石油价格上涨 / 消费国经济放缓 / 货币政策收紧 / 股市承压
地缘风险升级 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流动变化 / 新兴市场货币贬值
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317215555sNj
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2164557d89594613a56d64d4fdd26f58/c.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nato-making-mistake-on-hormuz-trump-says/live-76387955?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQdUZpanFtQVFoMUo0RzVkazYxSjBackI3eWhlM21kQ0IzbG03RkxFa2UzUzYxRGJmN3dWSGlTZ0ZucldxaHlKanNaV3MyQ3RRaUhQMjdGT0xOQ0JVdFJuQzM4RS0tM0Y5MDBFUXhDa1VQemt0SWdUR05jOGJPN2RCWnJZcnkyNGFuMmhvc3NUNU42dkxJVDl4aHhmaElyZWRWUW9UbnZYV29OQQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588466.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588451.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588470.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOQVYwc3g1SHBTQUFKYTFtRjJKTDJXcThDbF93bUl2VC1yLUU2RS0teTdUUGpQV1I4S05YWHVyOWlicm9rS3MwV081LWlEQUt6blN4OGRZczBCNlFlOTVPZ3c4akNBcmFrSHBIMGNZV2k0emUxcmlhaWtZZW5BM2FWeHlvXzJfWFVtNUR3UUI5cVhubDRLVUdxaWJTVkNqY2l0?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxQc1RpU1hvdmJZaC1NNE02TlBBUE5uNFFndUJ4MmxlREZCZkhEOHY2aTkxTEota05ScXZ4ZXU1M3BscVUyNTJ4VnZJTVNYM1JHT3p0eUdTUGRsRmUtMlEyRzFPcTB1bEQ2QzlXOVhVVWVhQldBTEdIYk1OQ0hjMmtkbEp6MWcyaExoWDBEd0RiTEFNZU5uaG83alIwMNIBoAFBVV95cUxQRDFlVTY5TGtrN2lWSVFWdGhmY2FRcWZmS21mTm5xYnozZE8xQmVzNl95RXRBUjZuS29BdTQ4eGpKU1lPejBsNjMxdWFXSGEycUMya21WN24xUEYxN1c4YmZudURUUV9sLW5XN0VIYkV1eE03bXgtNm1fRDBRUjVQajlPUlRTbW1ZWUZoZno2cDVKT214cmw2UV9CWTZTMjAx?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260318080325mSr
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260318073426Hym
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/trump-says-us-does-not-need-strait-of-hormuz-help-despite-appeal?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/iraqi-capital-baghdad-rocked-by-powerful-blasts-near-us-embassy?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5tREFqY2plYjg1dUhxaDg4Yk1wV0YwMElCdGlkY0pzT0sydV9CQzNTWDllaWZEc0ZHMzVwbVp6Wk5MdjczXzZSUk85aUtvUExUNW9KWHZJQjBKUQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/4302adf7471c2579.html
- [16] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/f4a871322e6de0b7.html
- [17] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/c81778311ad21c48.html
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/635334-us-counterterrorism-chief-resign-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6AFBVV95cUxQTDRXZmp2NV93VjdiNXFHX1hVT3RUOVZZaENaX2g2NmNGOFFTeDZFb3ZYdnVrQjE0YmdtaTZxc0JJQ2l4UzFFQTh5a2UwTm5xd0hOZDJfZzJWdS1MUjZkNVM0OTU3cm1OQnozUGc2WU5BakhCVVBzUkZGMEQyOU5JeV9nYm44V0hNeDZzUmtMSHQxZVVvZlA5OUlFVE5qYkd3dDVJRXRCR3o1ME5rSDlLOEwzX1V2QUJGYlJncFZDZWt6cXJKX0hMbUczV1V1b0hMRElIU0RHemxEU205YU5sbDZza2lwamQ2?oc=5
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-am-17-maerz-israel-verkuendet-toetung-von-ali-larijani-a-148e4932-3432-49aa-af78-69f4531254d0
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24deezq6meo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxQdlhXdlMwTi03LVJFYktIVVRRMUI0QWpGcFdUQkMtYmY3eFBEU1cxT1YtblNDcy1FNGFQLWFzZ3V2N1N4b214LXcwNFQ0b0trNkpDWXY1M29oWUdSR2wxYVRFQ1VjZ0NyZTJFRDJ5T2ZGSU5YM3hSNm5GbWlMV2E4bDRMcEptSzJSLXlxUDV0Tm02N2tOQ1ptWVA3LW1ULTg3akZ3MktlN19FWlZKMjFUQmNjaTM3Mnh5cUNLbFg2b3JWQQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5481950/inggris-susun-rencana-bangun-gugus-tugas-untuk-buka-selat-hormuz
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNRDBZNlFoSEdzZVBFaWRZcmh0QTZuZU5wOXhkR0RpYl9XRlRCczFpNnhqNWJTaHczR3J1d2ZWZy1OM0pOTDAzT2Q4VE1Ub0s0eEg0d0o5U0ZXVlB5SFpuM1k0LVMxajVDRE0xSjlzTWFTM3lRNFZacVQ4YTJjTGREOGxHa1NMOXAwRGdzRGdrVWdsclU?oc=5
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10588412.shtml
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/635309-strait-hormuz-iran-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317214541PMn
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260317212732Gsb
- [29] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2e85c70d1e3f4e53a76f31f0fd6bfb22/c.html
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/17/the-us-israel-war-on-iran-is-shaped-by-religion-as-much-as-strategy?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-17
2026-03-17
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特原油100.21美元/桶（跌2.84%），WTI 93.50美元/桶（跌5.28%），关注霍尔木兹进展。
- 股市：道指+0.83%，标普+1.01%，纳指+1.22%，技术股领涨。
- 黄金：避险需求因地缘风险上升，但油价下跌可能压制涨幅。
- 美元：作为避险货币，波动取决于风险情绪和美联储政策预期。
- 人民币：受中美关系影响，磋商进展可能支撑汇率。
- 债券：通胀预期缓解可能压低利率，但地缘风险支撑避险需求。
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升
油价下跌 / 通胀预期缓解 / 风险资产上涨
中美贸易磋商 / 全球供应链稳定 / 风险情绪改善
中国经济强劲 / 全球需求支撑 / 大宗商品和股市受益
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQdWh6X3pJTzBFT1lrSTRtcU11Tnlza0RJcjRuU290SlFORDUwU25jbW9yRDJfNzgxdy16c0VkNE9FNE8xSzUzLU52UG5SbmJNR2hyeFQyUVpYMnBlQm1FMjhTUGZoZ1JuUlNSTFdLRkZYOHA0TXYwSm40RjBSNzVlUGJlak9uV0xHaHRjd2hFRS1BaU1BRTB0WGJNOVQ4ME1nQ0HSAacBQVVfeXFMT09HU2M2SDhRbkJNZnQ5bEtfRkxLa1ZMWjY2Nl9taWZNV3pfNVpqOEZQWEZncS1LRVc1UlZkNHczQ05TNHRaZzQ0YjFvNlZFTXhJTkM3SFViUmN1UUgycGdRNVlsOTJPamluRjJtWEZ0RnBUajkyOTBkVnlfMXEtZ2tUbmp6dWhRbXpkU0JJWDJLdWdLdWM2WmNwS1V3Z3k0ZkoyWUVhdXc?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/civilians-pulled-from-rubble-after-us-israeli-strikes-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-uae-crude-output-falls-142513245.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587900.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPQ0ZvaGZWQVNDMFIzMXI5NUhpMklaekpDc2hQdmtBT2JPcmU3ajB1NGdRR3R3NEVRc1BFQzNmZXh6RGNjaDVFc3pHYTFTNDJfRHg4OVdxdEFkOUZHMXlrNjZrdC1aZnFEX0xsdlFxRVU3RzlGVm1YTU5UMnF5MVB5Q0lmWHNJMWlU?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/17/iran-war-live-trump-scolds-allies-for-not-joining-strait-of-hormuz-mission?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNTnpRQ3lnb1I5aVoxZWdGWFZNQ0pHUjR6TzhRSFNkWTdwQlJhV0g3clJuUzgtYlVYOFRLVkU5dkZpLVNYM3ZRVjlqWUtSaUxVbFNsSE9QcldwcllnTTVQSEFkc2lxVkZaQm00TGlhWTk0aWc3Z2ttb2F2RURjSHZ3TGZaWFN1V3FOcy1jeWpsMkxod2EyZnZxbVBvcEJqRjhHUGYwSWt3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/02bbfec081c846b680c3488a1237b614/c.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/trump-operation-epic-fury-anger.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075910BRH
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075936Fc3
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587873.shtml
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-17/10587870.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587875.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587872.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNNWpWbzhtaHpYdUl3VmRyYmJzN0ZmSzhYV28xelo1OHpvOXRUYTR3aHVPbzdVNkFoMlNxRVo0alNHaE1zSm00ZXB2Ty1MSHExTklLMFVZTVo5LVljYmlBMFpWS0VfRi1sNzB4UVJaMlMyNVpDa2lPNkFrRUFJazBJUXJrdC1VRmozWXBQMTdFWmZpWVpiNWZoQS1QVXFqQWJHQk5xSjFuMWRRR05pdXd3OXotUmdaRGhGR2c?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/trump-claims-strikes-on-iran-prevented-nuclear-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOcXpYNzBzOFFQejJnR1hBandJdzVtMjk1NU9qMG5IWk80NHZrODBqN3V5dHJRSUYwSU5RRDNITmh5dXpuXzQyWU9jaS1zVUExXzNuSzUwYXpYVzc4Rk81bGhqU3liYU51WWI1MG1fbU9LX2lkTXBFb09wRUpxa25nTHIxMzViQkg1WDhTUVNiOGZkWms4NGRHck9QT2xKcjdvR3k1SDAwVUJ0VUE4V0Ffb0N3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-seeks-to-delay-meeting-with-chinas-xi-by-month-or-so-amid-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOMlRvSmdFeGxqMHZLY2NyZjI0cWc1UlEyTUNaRTR4WjlBWC1nVnNTRXVpQjhJWE9aWDUtWlUzTDZKMnp3WlZoOHByNmoycFczbldhWlFHNmp3S1VwNW9NN0EyeTRSQzliZkVuVjBleVhIUlc1dXNYanlCVHRMcTRpSE16dngzeWdPenpGeUk4T29Ma1JJaFpR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOM3NSSUFQSGc4THo3NHVTMWNSRkpoMnpnLXNvTk4yYlBrSXpydG0wY3k4NkdBMk40ZEpYaXRoQmtrTUFRTkVvdlFHQjd6aV9LMExGRFRGZENxQ1dFU1ItWm0tYTIyVndhcjVqSjFQVkFOUVhOeFEyRVpoQk9QdTVHRzFzLTBTaXJEbnR2Tnh2YVF2ZnF1SzZkRVRsYVRNeUt40gGmAUFVX3lxTFA2bTZUU0RVZUpCU2VzZlVCM0h2czluN2puTnJRZHltRURRMVFDZ09zZ1hHcDQ5ZlF1bXIzTzNicE1ybVNETzJOWDJKRW1oZ2ttNUZHc2NwVlZaYUpRUTFiTXRSSEMzbHVacGFZeXgwTTRmQnJPamdrMUxRbUo1UjNSNFNaSE1DTElhU1VIMVJyZzBxYXJRNlVoV1pSZDZadHlLTFk0b2c?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635249-trump-world-demand-iran-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/abeeed7f095443298ab1350ba00a80b7/c.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/16/how-big-of-a-problem-is-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-donald-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPWm9rX1NfdUFFZ1dZTXhqMGRyZER4ZFp5eXZwV0gwT3p4MEJPR2VQYTJrV18wWjdRMjBiVU5PMkJkUW16NTNnS201dlRBQVJSZjV6eWJhVFdkc2hWOWZyLTFlWmwwX1pPbmVsNDhLQ2duamxDeTZtZmtjUmtlSE5VODVhazFaYkgtcVJ2dzVRdWREaFpkQl91Yi11TFUzQk9TQkR3UjN4eXl6VG1vQVc1Vzg0blRnVFBJQ2RwSmM2OHBRYWZIUVE3TtIBzgFBVV95cUxOTFpwZ2hfM1Vaa01zcC1idm5uaVkza05RTldvdlJzTk04SW56TGFyUXpiRHJmb2xRc0xkUkhkbksxUzN4U1pXZElUS1NidHcxMDM1OGdUblJTSzJVMzI3NDdidDdkbmZmNDBnWk9fNnlqOVhyaDYtdkJ4UUJNbDJSaVREcy1EWks1WHR
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBmUWNHLXBpdldRMVE1S0ozRUpZTEk5TzNHRTlXbURfTnlBOHdQV1l6d3dHMm1mTnJxaUJGQUNKZm1UMV9ETTRaRXpRaw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/israeli-forces-in-southern-lebanon-as-ground-operation-announced?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-says-hormuz-strait-help-on-the-way-as-allies-reject-military-action?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/europe/europe-iran-war-trump-hormuz-warships.html
2026-03-16
2026-03-16
进展要点
- 石油：WTI油价一度突破100美元/桶，IEA储备释放可能压制涨幅，但中东风险溢价持续。
- 黄金：避险需求推高金价，关注冲突升级和美元走势。
- 外汇：美元作为避险货币可能走强，尤其是兑新兴市场货币；人民币受美中关系影响波动。
- 利率：通胀预期因油价上涨而升温，但避险情绪可能压制长期利率。
- 股票：全球股市面临地缘风险打压，能源板块可能受益于油价上涨，但整体市场情绪避险。
- 债券：避险需求支撑政府债券，但通胀风险可能限制涨幅。
- 商品：除石油外，工业金属可能受贸易紧张影响，农产品价格关注美中采购协议。
- 航运：霍尔木兹海峡中断推高航运成本，影响全球贸易物流。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
美中贸易谈判与地缘施压 / 关税和出口控制不确定性 / 全球供应链中断 / 风险资产波动和避险需求
IEA石油储备释放 / 增加市场供应 / 缓解短期油价压力 / 降低通胀预期和风险溢价
俄乌冲突升级 / 区域安全风险增加 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市承压
来源
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/635086-iran-us-kharg-island/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/moment-iranian-missile-hits-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9YYzNLRkJjdzFUMVNUS1hrQW5kSkVfYU5qa3ZpVnlwSHdDUDNDRU15NFl0OWpWbW9wRzVLamZ5bTZabUVZVHNycVhGdzJIRmxuWVZRcGxRamd1dG5mekRES0lUbUU0eUhEeUM3U2duVFk4V293MVM4WG1kVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10587266.shtml
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316092310T0U
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316091506CIc
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNeUxQQzY4eUc3Z05ZZ3JEdU1WTHBJd3VOejFrRmJCMVpFT3JMVDV3eHBBd0J4NmJpZVdtZVdGM3VYbGFZeHFIVkRlRjlzem41YWlVakNCT0tHb1NsTTNVTnd2X3NkcGZ2OFNSTlRnYlN6ZzhKSmw2U2ZvRmx2QWk4UGFIUlZVbjg4dXlVWEVMX0xyaFVRVDVsUGpqbUduSjRDZWFGTWhBdV9CR1FYX2c2VWQ5QjVoTnFEMTQ1THJZV2pQbDJWUVNiWdIBzgFBVV95cUxPaXFxN1ZrQnVwbzE0bkdhbFB0cHlVTzVIYUF3Y0UyNjl2amUzcE9qclFPYjFub2ZON0F5d1Rsek92OU9jTzNWWjJ4eEZOczdKMDlRUVNsMzVtQ2RqOWY0bXd6dVoyS2hGTXFBczZjNmxrN3VEdVR5aWctTk53TlNrcWpna3RVR2NWM2V
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/15/whats-the-impact-of-the-iran-war-on-china?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-16/10587332.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587321.shtml
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0dlvl086eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPOXJxSGdudjU3bzh6ZHlQLVJNdHVxa0pTZElnV0JxOHVSckd6Q0JaeTRGMDRFMHROYXpoWldOeXhIQ205VEQ0RlZCUkw0UGtmLXdFSEJyTFZicXVsVkRuUUVrc19tLTNiQ1d4Qml1cXhhLXVpRFRPLUx5cGFOOFFvbS1jajhTZ1BNLTZ6MkE2VkI4blQzWk1BR0N6Y2dOUWc1N3ZPTEluVkJrUGgzS1lqS29zT2V6T1NjLUQ1aElLdUY0ZHhNLTdJ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587318.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA3Qm0xZXZrSm9BVmhMRVNTQlRoSWg0MWtoeFNZN2ctaG41NDlhdUpsSnQ5V0hCd1JfSnhzTGdXNHE2Z0MxakhuVTJ4MHNZTHRVVG8ybzBsTDM1M2doQTcydXhEWUFOaGc?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316061843kmn
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316052639PnR
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxPY0hIVzdNUFprdVRNTkx2Smdhb2lyUjBwcUZQZmFmWjkzLWFYUy1nUGVOV3REMDVEVkQ0aFBQUVY3YklKZkpneC1yQUtjQjFrZDNodjBhelRZZGpWazJ4djZ4WkdEY2JzbnVKUVM1aXNaQUZwaG1HYXB6aHlta1U1M1ZYUTBvQUhnaFh6MkZveHpXdkdxMS1Ldzg1S2JLVTdZMk52WElKd1hWR0ZTTUdHb3NoS3Y5ZktwWENLRXhCbk8zTnE5b1Vnd04tbGhqQQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQdGo1V3dYMFh5dWE3ZXo1Q0VSSWVGWXZJZDZKUXBXQnVzcVhNRC1LallDSlNUTDVoTERHUnEyZkRyVDZuNzRVelI2Z1VqMEFHTzNKV2pQNWgtUlpZYU5HLWpSaE5FNFlkQXE2WF9DNF9OdDlTVjhQMUxUbG1vWVV2VTdZTnVWWWtVZTYyRTBFZTgwVllMMTR1N0kwRTlXTzl4YTdsSlk0WXF1RzhQS0tMVDRzSGEyMlVyQzFOcXpuS2hZd3N1UDhWbkRR?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1EMU5EeFZjbGR1OE9YRXdQVmFmVUVUNmlzcFYtckNmOEN4empraTY0UVFITmlJaVcxVWs5RDlvbG5VMWRVa3lMeHN1b00zYUliSW5hamdUTTRoUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/what-is-force-majeure-and-why-are-some-gulf-countries-invoking-it?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/trump-stark-choices-iran-war.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQV0EtVnVRd2FHeGJYUjAwWjlid01aVHNNVkdJS1pwR3NjNi1rX3RGNlZ3RG1xTDVUTWFVQ1psZnNRZHRIWFcwakgwejl0dnBWSFdoN2RsWENJUzFNXzZ1aUFaVmgyOWdwRHJXVFlpWTJrMTUwUnotbGxVcW8xQ2hKd19BaGhYeGN2QWxndGFlQU5XMzhmOFpRS0pLTkdBdjM4a3dmZGhCRktoSVE3LXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMT2tENFBrbVRMamozSlZrOTlMMkdNTnNYM2J2UTM4amY2bGdkWEc4ZUl0UUs3SW5tcktVTlRCUHFhcXVRd2RMcnJtdGtNTXpTWFNXOFJtQllxMzhhQmRFR1NQaDVMZFg3THBuZERkNmlmR0dqbWkwdEtNc0Z3anduaU9RMndnODVSMkVRN0RvTnNId3hKUHQ5TGZBUUVtVlFmOWFKQkd
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE4xZWdUQXhkXzVhT1RrLTBfNUt2eHoyOTZjbEJHNE9KbWhzWHBVbE1HbUJCclRSeWpZN3BrRXZKS2Ntczl5RVc4Sk1Pb1VCYzJXNjloLVZ5WmZqUQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcUlPUzlqMXVIeldBRVdicUxOLVRrVWpIWFRGMVdUS0s2RE5WRzg5N2pOaG9HRWVucTBxRGNyN3BXY0JrX05oS1ZfTGJ4UWhZYzlMaGJMXzVwM2xadXpETVdjOTFXQW9RRnJXZDdOQndVUE90aUh5YmIxdTJmcTVFQ2NB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603160250479UF
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316022052JtR
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316013532JZg
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxNekRxMzNpNEdXdXZMQWQwcFA5Ukt5Qlp0Q2ZrTWRZVGtQdHBWaUZwdE5CSzl5Y1Rkb1BtWGVJT3FfeklwTm45MlV3Nk9CTHVoV1JqMndtd1ZuZUgtaUxsTlgwMk1Hc19uZkx2dXlsRUx6ZjZUNF9aNUFscnc3S2V1c3hoSm9PUmc1TUJpTkc5SHFIeldONEg2QWlsamJ1TklsTVpSZm1Bc3Z4Y0R6RE1kanJBcmtvR3ItLWJFNVZR0gG-AUFVX3lxTE53c0htMGNhcldNaGQ5Rm5rVUhFS1V1OFU0XzFqYTFIZmdpcTR3UmtSQm1yNnl2aGVxT2Q1bF9kaHNkNEY3cUt4dERnMTFIZ0ExZ1IycW9pY05FT0s0bUN3eFJqcEF2QUhkUU5vQmZHeXdqOXRNWEhPQ2lkWUlEQWZsdDN1NFpWNzBDZnA4NHpHU3ozSDd
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101896-war-update-49-combat-clashes-since-morning-three-sectors-see-fiercest-fighting.html
2026-03-15
2026-03-15
进展要点
- 石油价格面临上涨压力，因供应中断风险上升。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格可能走强。
- 美元可能受益于避险情绪，兑风险货币升值。
- 全球股市风险情绪恶化，尤其能源依赖型经济体。
- 汇率波动加剧，关注中东相关货币如阿联酋迪拉姆。
- 利率市场可能反映通胀担忧，央行政策立场受考验。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 运输中断 / 避险资产需求上升
地缘政治紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券收益率波动
中国政策稳定 / 区域增长预期 / 亚洲资产相对韧性
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTFA5TGhOa20zcEI5ZVlpWFJuZmVtWVYwbWk3TlpiUVZvMFJiSmhQX1NLdHl2UHBBU3VFc29sUGRRU05ZZ0F2SE5udHNUT19TdW85d1BILU5helJoNElpMUVBZlQ4bzE0RFMxVXlOY2NBamh4a01ac0RBZ0FCRQ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOTDB3elIzT25OVk8wQnFtMktXWW01QjFSWkNoS2JWZmlrRTE4c1djdFotRUlJWC1wbFRDM0pqMURMSk1SZGdZMjZrX0ozTE82SUFzZ2tjWHZVdm9qUUVMWUhfUVJSd2x5VGMwQ3NkM1dzdjcyel82WWlUamNIajdsdHpsQXZoZDd0UGluX0dLTQ?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVjZuR25oazhiV0ZmTkVXZVVLTGpUQWxpSWEzLWV6c0wxSlRZZHZYSVFvdjNTZk5LT2I4LTdPZ0lpNndSYUpRYUg0Rm1UYUVXSjEwZHJOb0RuU0FGaGtPLUJyb3cxQ3ZCVldPdEQ1dlZfWnlTdkJROEoxMk9YMVNudmJkX084VjhISWJ0cm50V3RUb3Iwa0ZDTzAzYU9HZzI2NGFMbXdR?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQVlQxTy1qRU0zZy1ZMlVQaExCcGNiamVEaWhudXBHR0dxREZ5VDlPUkRqNFdtME5NYnNqNGtmZlhmdUlhd3ZRX2puU2dXZUtOemFLaHVxUmJRSE5JVjhHdVNZMFZUbXRqOU9HSENmd09NMVJMZHEzTVZLclBMd2ExSlo5VDFBN1BLWXNITERKeTlGRGhWVjJRcFptWThFQk5uQUh5c21lbFJzbHJiMURrbzd6LXBOUQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/15/iran-war-live-trump-urges-world-to-keep-hormuz-strait-open?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10586979.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNeDhPbEdMMktxYWRDQXFlR3BrVU9uMWR4SlNjNnNZY016TGJ0bmo1OVQ3SWpDTVdVaVplX0c0UGtINjF4Q3JlVUpjMTVwY0VZcTFqWE1STkZCUTJRUjBXdWpVd2xnMWdNcnhpeVk5ejNtNGR3bXQtZ2xqdHVyZGd3WlFaRE9vNFJUbWlxY21fazEtbTRNbEx4dktlbXlsbmlmUXRRNlItODJFSXpqYkpiMW1fRQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101708-war-update-117-clashes-on-front-lines-as-russia-launches-68-airstrikes.html
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/five-killed-in-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall-amid-middle-east-conflict-13519726
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/us-israeli-strike-kills-15-at-isfahan-factory-iranian-media-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9MSHk4Wi0tRXM0VHh6c1Myc0NJakpvUnl5VllrbmtYcGM4R3JaUDVWNW9TdnVDWjlFMGRvXzlHanpiYlctTExOWnZHejBWTGp6dUJoRGpVQWpDYWNfZnVIZW1fZ01jSHN1Tm5wc0IyQWFQZFVNSXlhaA?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE4yNGQ0WUtDZ1UyalZ5eHdlQUhULW15STloeWVmYzhoWXJ3ZzIzOHlEaHhXZlNkV0c4TGZLcmxhNHJEVnF0WnUtX1Z4Vzk2NmZpMzcwNTFkY2ZhMXF4?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMNIBuAFBVV95cUxQRVFZU2ZINmRNeHFnWGx0aTVhZGdmNi1iYjN2RHVJWllXMEJURl9KbU9kQ01SYzh4TzRGNmZrRkhyLU9tYU5lYm14eEZfWkZTb21uRUFTNEZqdUYzM0Z6TVUya3JUbk1wdXFhcWRpclNiVFFMRTI4YnpGNkVma1ZjSWh3MnF2cE8xVDJCZ0VHbjRLZ1Q3WU03OTl2QjlKcm1
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/turkey-on-alert-as-iran-conflict-escalates-warns-against-provocations?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/14/israel-targeting-irans-security-forces-may-aim-to-encourage?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/trump-says-many-countries-will-send-warships-to-hormuz-amid-iran-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/us/politics/rubio-trump-iran-war.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/energy-environment/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-middle-east.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxORy1RZkVhX0NxZmRSZURTRHhKb3ZNZTVTeGwxeF80TGRQME5CUjV1QUl2VGN3ZDRyZzVBYU9EN3REakRockVuOU9pdHFBazJkYlhkYlZreUlJTnF2UVozdExpdGEyOGN1RlNFaG5TMFdmY0R3eDM2UGhNQ2l0M1MtaTcxdjNvMGtwMDA4Z1NMTTg4S24tU056dmpibVUzVFRSTnhRUVY0S3Q0V1BpV1l5NG0zMA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxOT1BlRjRRZVpteFFkc3l6MzBORl9aNXp6NlZINWNGdmtucmx4STAwc01qRXBrcXpNY0d1Y05TZ3hzUkpXYk9YYnlkZWw5X3lad3VVQzVzam5XVFFuYUlTR2dYVDZJcDl3SEx1dnYyLU93VVlYV0pmZmFQOU5TQ0pGWlFyXzRabFltSjkxY3hKS2dxNTlYd1pBS2s2ZTlSc3NUYjFmOWUwV3hlY1duUTlySVBoY25zeDJTRWJiaE5xa3c5M0VaT1JCZVNscHBlOU4wS0NTQw?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxOSHlZVXQ2V3h4UVlRaVg2bDJaNmZiWHktTVFkQXNCU0Z3V3ZZQTlvSUxZaExEa1Bfdy04MDZCQjdoSEl3ZVd1Z1dOYmlNN3hUNWdRQlFUSkIwLTY3UWp5ejdrLURMa01qRndiMlFVLWdUREloUkoyd1JnQnZLRXVHaGU4bVRKVUhzVTdCVlo5RkhRcHdPQmp6a0NnSHJ1OWdNck44SS1NNU9zUzJIMVdKVWVkSjZnZW9OanM5MHAxU2xQdmlDdDlR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQempZYXZOZXBHVzRTMENFaF9ZTUJwaG44NHU4anE0TUh0UW5IaS1nMDNmTmNaZUdsX0VZT3ZHS05tNjBQYi1GR2JCeDlGbGU5QzQtSnY3MEFNcmVfRzR1djZteTBpNmd6SHo0d0lRN2ljRDhLSGZfZXRETHNLLUpSTDZZNGEwbUZ2NndkNUFzcmxCdDlMWmtKbFRBQTRtMGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTkNTemktVnR6SkF6LTFXTGEyWTlaWTN2clRXakVEWmlvay1KUHVOcGU2M0x3bFRqSVNsNHVxV1J4TXFCcGNuN2tKeWI3U253aEpYRVktV3EtOGF1cXhyUFdHVnNlTmpadFdaLXcyOGZkOUtRZU9VM0NHaW9WMGpmQ3dUSmZhUG5RMzBWbjJqSjZuNVVYX3R4MUdXemluS2tUX0JqUFY?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/israel-bombs-basij-checkpoints-in-tehran-as-us-iran-trade-fire-and-jabs?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-14/10586968.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE14aFhiZ1B2ZEZmNHdHRW5OZjI1V1g4MWdQb3Ftb0UwY0NoaWRXUjczaW4tYXF0OU9IWG9EZ0x3WTNIRVA4ekVwSVRWUnA3MUc0M215Z0J2QTlmRVZndjA5MHdXUVVQdzQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-reopened-to-us-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-14/10586955.shtml
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634983-greek-flagged-oil-tanker-attacked-black-sea-russian-coast/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOV09TTXY0cTVIanNiSDFDeHlVMEw0a1BXV0lxUTliR281WmxUV1lZOGpOY0Fuc0ZDek9KSDdrZ3U5a2lFbW1Dc3NBX1VDS2YwM2JlTThJbldjUUh6XzlVbmVBNDJaSVhrRU5tT2xVQjRKVUtlZzlkd0Nqd2tSeUtpX1lld2xQQ0NwQW5NVkpvSTVhYkRlRlFXcmxB?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-emergencies/4101625-iran-drone-attack-causes-fire-at-uae-oil-hub-fujairah-port-halts-loading-bloomberg.html
2026-03-14
2026-03-14
进展要点
- 石油（WTI/Brent）：关注哈尔克岛袭击后的供应中断风险，油价或测试新高。
- 黄金：避险需求激增，价格可能突破关键阻力位，监控ETF流入。
- 美元：作为避险货币走强，但美国政策风险可能限制涨幅。
- 股市：全球股指受压，中东相关板块如能源股波动加剧。
- 外汇：中东货币如伊朗里亚尔和阿联酋迪拉姆承压，美元兑新兴市场货币升值。
- 债券：美国国债作为避险资产需求增加，收益率可能下行。
- 加拿大元：受央行利率决策和油价影响，波动性上升。
- 区域股市：迪拜和阿联酋股市因冲突风险下跌，监控外资流出。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
中东地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
美国增兵和军事行动 / 区域不稳定扩大 / 全球风险规避 / 股市下跌和债券上涨
石油供应冲击 / 央行政策调整 / 利率和汇率波动 / 全球市场溢出效应
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/14/iran-war-live-pentagon-vows-to-ramp-up-us-military-campaign-against-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081707PPX
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260314083318PVl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081016HKz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603140004322cj
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/13/iranian-missile-strike-in-central-israel-sets-building-ablaze?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-enters-day-14-as-conflict-completes-two-weeks-what-we-know-so-far-tehran-explosions-israel-strikes-us-aircraft-crash/articleshow/129550155.cms
- [8] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-03-18
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101359-iran-launches-missile-strike-on-central-israel.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBuOXJsam9kY21GZDVSeFAydmwtZEtQaVRKUEdNZzR2TE1mQ0VPTEhKZUdNRC1BVEJVTF92NGp3QTJqajRmTkdJLVliVE53TDdPeXhCVF9Vc21VOUFaNVJBLXU3aGJlVWROaE5icEtBQ2FWZnpNWmcxdE5RSTE0Q0E?oc=5
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314090641MLm
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNeUJTQ1VSNHVHVmZNZndxaWtfLU5ySEN4S1FrRjF1MTF5SnVZU1M5bVliRy1UNUZ0SmZaemNucEk5a3dFUUg2UXd6VmRZZVlKNE0yZGFLQlpjNDJQRm0tb1pHT0Y3QnRNR1JLdTYxMnBFd25NbXNWR3NjeEVHcTN5cUpTQnU?oc=5
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/634898-us-iran-israel-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9KdXFiNE5BTzBZSlNYb1YyaEdqZTFLMFNiNFNCbHdGc3dMdzZSMldrMXA2ZjRWZnBuWm5JWDkyOXFzalZtWkFsTmRGcHlabVg0QlJvMDlodGFrYURCSWFxM3RyVEM1Qko1Z2ZSUklDUC1qOFAxRHFwdw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQOTd5a0lmYXlEQVNOS0ZsRW5MZHItQ3pMSE4xcVpEa3VnamFHbUU0Wi1uMmlWcFJvVHo1R1dqMTBwc2VwR1FXU3E1d21ydi1KVFM5dmFBOU5SREpTYlhDV1VBbTFQaU96WlctVVBpWExsTm1Qa2RWZWNpbzU0NHdES0xTOVlWYklGODZNYkFmWHRQT2ZTNHFNQjVpMnNmaFA0b1JOTVZjUlBEWms5akhjcktJS0ZMRjlDdXo5WlVqRGVFQmhWNm8wY3VJd01lYlhIUUE?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOUlR4U3FSeEZEZHV0T0lEODh6WmRxaHpNbEdVajRodjdkT2xtS3lKSUo2QTVidjhkb3FyN2JtTjl3ZmtLejJBTVc4S2RBN3h1VlNDNEZsWXJVdHlJUWk5SjhVSUhjcWNacFRFOTM1cEpQcVZjamszelR3enR4MEVNMmFCNFNKN3pQcmRFMUM0akx3XzNCN215dG14ZXhIQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwJBVV95cUxPbWcyZUo1VDViaVM5WF9pcWJkY1lZWHVnRVB5cmlFQUZaNkdBbG1tQWRSMDUxRzRVbXlNTXJuc0YzalpkemFWdm9mai1TSFIxalhyUjcwSXdxS0J0ek9Lb1h4NE1lT2RKWkdJRHQtQmZVRTRweFZxSVVVa2RmOGJWTThOdGNyeTVoQUNVeFZjY182aTM5Y1c2NVBEVVhNXzQ1bndjcm00ZTVoMklhZ1Z3azRMYTRWR291Ri1LeUZNdW5LZzFSV25kTW9EMndoZkdkX3QxX0RLa1hBUUZOa0dldzRiakE5U2NGMVoyUVJlM2ptcnBZWHVEYnFwSEd5TG5wQzNxWmdQWmpVUzR5VnVnbWswUWczUEE?oc=5
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/politique/20260312-troisi%C3%A8me-jour-de-guerre-en-iran-quels-buts-de-guerre-pour-trump
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/eskalation-in-nahost-iran-nimmt-den-oelhandel-in-den-wuergegriff-a-b1f06920-cb9d-44fe-90c2-1f4c53fba5a0
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260314000200315
- [22] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-us-would-escort-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-if-needed-fox-news-interview/article70739248.ece
- [23] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/28-indian-vessels-with-lng-lpg-and-crude-stranded-near-hormuz/article70738142.ece
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-offers-up-to-10m-for-info-on-mojtaba-khamenei-and-other-key-iran-leaders-offers-relocation/articleshow/129562970.cms
- [25] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-march-2026
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/us-eases-oil-sanctions-at-an-ideal-time-for-russia/a-76349758?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [27] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-ramping-up-strikes-in-coming-days/live-76340941?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634859-dubai-finished-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQU0JHaTJ3YTF3Qzc1Vmp2VU45bnRoRDAyMlhodmhuY2pORXlGNm5LZGxpM0w1Rk5UUW1faDFHU2NCd1UwOHI4QmhudHd1MFJhUEt0QW1mc3R0N1BJajN2Q0x4SDA0bTUwZWNIcllYSHdBeFlZaExfSl9mWEhqX2NBcmtEczRCd0VK?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPT3VuT1JwVDB3WU5LVzM5ckJsQnRJQ3BBN3JWc0hQQ2tXdnJtZXFHYjZ5SWdBS2lWNXNXM0o2VmV4d3FRZHVHQzNRZ3BDUnVuMWY0dDZlb2VZRDA2NldJQVY1cUlzWjd4Zll6UVQ3WUo3RGJRNEZWTmF5NEJfclVpS1VMUzJkTEZ6RVMxVTd0OA?oc=5
2026-03-13
2026-03-13
进展要点
- 原油（WTI & Brent）：关注100美元/桶关键心理关口，任何供应中断消息都将刺激价格。
- 黄金：作为终极避险资产，价格在地缘风险未解除前易涨难跌。
- 美元指数（DXY）：避险需求与美联储相对偏鹰的立场构成支撑。
- 美国国债：收益率曲线或因避险（长端利率下行）与通胀预期（短端利率上行）而呈现复杂变化。
- 美股：整体承压，但能源板块（XLE）受益，科技成长股对利率敏感，可能继续调整。
- 外汇：商品货币（如加元）可能因油价获支撑，但风险情绪恶化会压制其表现。
- 波动率指数（VIX）：预计维持在近期高位，反映市场持续紧张。
关联路径
伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 全球石油贸易流量骤降 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策收紧预期强化 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊军事对抗升级 / 区域全面战争风险溢价上升 / 资金逃离股市等风险资产 / 涌入美元、美债、黄金 / 美元走强，金价上涨
油价暴涨 / 企业成本（尤其是运输、制造业）上升 & 消费者购买力下降 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 经济增长预期放缓 / 股市盈利与估值双杀
地缘政治不确定性持续 / 全球资本开支与贸易活动趋于谨慎 / 全球经济增长前景蒙阴 / 周期性资产表现落后
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-13/10586035.shtml
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260312-guerre-au-moyen-orient-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-bloque-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260312-war-in-the-middle-east-explosions-heard-overnight-in-tehran
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAJBVV95cUxOQkFHVlYxNWxWZEFDYU5vU294Y2FHZ182ejhLcDlnWDFlZFFVNW5EcHotTmtLZzVrU2lBMDRvWUxkU1R3dnNqREg5WnNVUGdfZXctUW9Rd3p2ek1jY2xNMVlIMTBmdmZPdHB3TjJua2loZnExQm95cl9WS1JtWEVadGxGZ2ZXLXRMb011Y2o2V1Jxbi1ROXdpZW9qRU9Ja0p0UHpJQnpMWTlxRVcyNm1Rc1NwSDVzcnVScXEwbEJUbHJXUk1yazBWZmpFbVlzOU9DNUFfVURPY2lsRkFYUHlwY0FWODJjajd2ZklkV0ZwY1hxQWVsbWo0VzhSSjVGUkNGUFBiYWNKWmxVNTFjYm5Ma0h6RXI?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOeFgzZmV4V0FqeHVnMnZxS2VSbGN4MUxqdFpud0haREV2OVBnUFcyZW0zQWJrU2lEQS1KSTFLRGNESWNQLW9QSnlWWVZBWGNGQS1Na0RDM09vZ3VFeE5ncm9ZSXVaVFMybk1nNjlRdUNNV19fd1FUYm1iV1pKaS11NFBsZmxxel84dXpjdmYtckNkWWNRaUVUX1lyQUJuZVFwTHR5YUh5ekx5WnpiNVNONXB3MlBvZ0RpSDQxb9IBwgFBVV95cUxQaV91WmNNSHR2MWljUngtRThOR1Mtb0lnSVZXMkViYUhFUHU1ejFzU2prMi1IdHYxWVVua2hEc0tyLWpGS1l5VWNubFlsanhBaUlkbUs2aF93eGk5Wjc5ZzVZQmhqeDNNMVlPZWJueW44b1g5aFZfSjZBcGRqTzd3Z1lkQ3lqcldMTFNoMGdkM2tFaEphb0x
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4100837-israel-claims-to-have-attacked-nuclear-facility-in-iran.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/06fbe756e8fa4e52a455987d905ec2e2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1VNnZxUmVhdk1rRkx3ejd4U01FaHFsMnV2ek9aVms3U2haNU9HTUpwXzM4dk5QbFFZaW1SN0JoOWtmWHRXT1doalh1bWdhckVDLUpQSWNpRnZOdw?oc=5
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101001-war-update-122-clashes-along-frontline-russian-attacks-intensify-in-huliaipole-and-kostiantynivka-sectors.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNS05TU1p3Rk5HVzVHMVNrUzJVb2ZwRjVZQjlMU3lLNENuYUwwY05ZQWV0OHhZNVE2Q0FPQVgwV2tucDBGMXNsclFsOWVtRU9sOElwSUxtRkdtUElENGw5SW9QSUdZYzREZXViVEIzbWdfRUFwdG1FNGRKSnk5QUpWNHhtaG5xaTRuZUJLdlIzR3pHWldyeXI5aEpwQU5Jd0XSAaQBQVVfeXFMTTNLVExKRjhKY2sydWM4a1dPQThsVWhPZkhfXzVNRFFoYnRHeDh1VFlrUEFlUHc2dXhqX1FwN0JDdGFIQUVnWEJCVENFOTJaWXNEcmlsLTVlWGhSX2I2akRhVmZOV2lfdEgwZGtzc1BHck9FY3c5Qm9JOVpjQnlPYVBMcUZMOFFXckF6OWZpRWNWSlFEZzBPeHU3eHRvMUV5RFZjcm8?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNb1B4UWQ0RjBPTEVDZkZDbXZvMTNtRWFNYUFWT2pPYlQ0NTlZSFRXZElDNm1CdEFrN0g5RVJGQXZYY0Y3SXozU0Y0WlRTVlFSaDVfNldjNVhBQnl0M3RNT3p1aEpNd2xTZTBmdW9wQjdSWlh5X2hLVmZBSVNHTmFRQmw2dHNqbjUyWkdqNVpNZjc3VDd3XzdPV0M2bUpOMG9YUnREeHRxcGlKa0pxb3RTdDg3RHVZNUFTdWfSAb8BQVVfeXFMTTh5ZFlmMFhYNlFOQk5MM1pZbW8xU3kzYk9ZYWVBcEJ3dHE4cm1xeHV6VEtZSWRFSGhXdHJlX2NjZG5lQUFOYXllaXZXb0VJSUFuczhaREg1OFJLMHRhT0lWenc4enR1MWxEWWJ0OGhtLVlvUW4xQTJac3QzNl9QQURyVDQzaWNXdnFCMk1VNDJqbWE2QU9EdG1
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/f6a9912e7ba541df91412c5b34d9e1e4/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/12/fuel-shortages-bring-queues-protests-around-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/netanyahu-says-israel-stronger-than-ever-in-first-speech-since-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPSFBSakVBQjhjZHBxX3lUTnM2YjVCMHNaZVlrU3d5ckdWcnAtei1DWUlQWDY4NDEzNURCeXNDQnFzcW93OVRyRjM4ZS0tSjZfaWpCWDVyV21XVXJORDhHRlRtVHRNMzBiYXJoemhBUU5nRk8tSkZuVHJhTGhiZXJBcEpNcktjSDFBWEJZa1dDMmdsci02dW9XZktXblFCdjNMT0M4T0w5S3BMY1hxbWhYRDBYZW4?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQOVI1bEFyQXhWeUVCR2pqYk00RGt0OXV0UjJHSTNHa2lJTzFhZjE4RmRBaUlnWjNjQWp1WUYxcW92LUZOaHpJUVpMemxNM3NRT2lWN0JXSkYtN0dtTFZxVDFkWDVjekJyS3F4eXBEX1o3UFpIWGk0MkhEUlNBYmswbXZTR0k4Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/108a1631b7364fe08ac49dd751650ccc/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10586021.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-12/10586020.shtml
- [20] https://news.sky.com/story/us-navy-to-escort-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-treasury-secretary-tells-sky-news-13518742
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQR1BzbW95SnlZUl9qRUNfbVh3WngxcHNKQWVhMGNESTEtbXBBWDJQaVpvZ19tRVNia0ZXRjBoSHY5aHF0RjAwVDdYeXFKcG5vYzFWekFwNVdDcExjZmRYNkZSRTItb0dKd05kcEhNRjFRSDdTY3MxVl91cWRVckd0a0hJTQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/12/how-will-the-war-on-iran-impact-the-us-economy?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/12/does-president-trump-have-an-exit-strategy-for-the-war-with-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5pN2RpbnBXSTZWX1V5NlFLODl1dWpfS21aNFVMMEs2MVFyZ2N3d0ZTRmhLQ3BaQkEyX0NXNWQxN19ZSEFsZk5IR2NYTEV2RVlsdDdKZERwbnluZ2ZBZFlhb1ZRVXh5Y3dZQTlwUlZReGRZZUhsQk0tbnlXMNIBgAFBVV95cUxQc0F2d2tZVUJHVW9IWFNqTnE1TkN6OEdHMU9xY2hvOWMyeVJPWERNd2lkVW9UcWR0T1ZZWFpJcXN6MkNIRDBCNm5wUzBqS3hTaVZGbVdsMnR1dHQyVGQxSElOcTQ5VUc0YjNULUxDc1FaWDFqdHc1Z3hyRUR2ZXdIUg?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxQTVl2b3NaY3JkSVItLXZPYlh0S3QtVGZXNDBHenE2T2E3RExlcVM4VVBvbjVFeTdEYkxxR09xMkhLQ21PbXAxOTVHVFN6UWVJeVZRVEwxa0loNEZfcHNmb3k2TkZuV3o4REdISTlwZDhpYjNHVVZKaFFJLW1rRWl2RWNENndKSmlYWE1ndWpMNWI0RkU?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4100977-war-enters-new-stage-as-russia-accelerates-creation-of-drone-units-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-vows-to-make-trump-pay-for-grave-miscalculation-if-us-escalates-war?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/12/aje-onl-irn_tuesdayupdates_av_v2-100326?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.iris-france.org/a-limage-du-monde-un-moyen-orient-de-plus-en-plus-sombre
- [30] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook
2026-03-12
2026-03-12
进展要点
- 油价：纽约原油收于每桶87.25美元（涨4.55%），布伦特原油收于每桶91.98美元（涨4.76%），受供应风险驱动。
- 避险资产：黄金需求上升，因地缘政治紧张；美元可能因避险情绪走强。
- 股市：全球股市承压，风险规避情绪导致 equities 下跌，尤其是能源密集行业。
- 汇率：美元兑避险货币如日元、瑞郎可能升值，新兴市场货币面临压力。
- 利率：通胀预期上升可能推高国债收益率，央行政策收紧预期增强。
- 商品：石油和黄金领涨，天然气价格也因冲突上涨。
- 欧洲市场：燃油价格上涨加大生活成本压力，消费支出可能收缩。
- 亚洲市场：能源进口成本上升，可能影响经济增长和贸易平衡。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断 / 全球石油供应减少 / 油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗威胁及袭击 / 石油供应风险 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市波动加剧
全球石油储备释放 / 供应增加 / 油价下行压力 / 通胀预期缓和 / 风险情绪部分修复 / equities 反弹可能
贸易调查升级 / 关税风险上升 / 全球贸易放缓 / 经济增长担忧 / 避险资产需求 / FX 市场波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/634559-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/634546-war-on-iran-could-remake-world/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFByQ3hWa01uVlpZWmtUSU82S1J2UTViaXhJcVdhRVdDb1FfYWkxWFBtbkh5d3hnTVprc0JmRkM1TzI2NUJhbllqSDRmVnRQMUE1UzZ1Z2EwMmM0cTl0blFpc19sWTNtQXM?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPUy1FZ0pyVHZBZEdvcjJLR2JWN20ycFg2LWF0RzNjbWtvLUplYjN0Ry1ZMFRmUi1FeEwwT0hmSXJ3SGVsMDVVUzl5MzRpOWh2bTJTbzZ0aDdaVU9SN0hUR0tRRUhPV1Rmdk5Pbjg0NGV3ekVodi1ZV05QaFM5VjdHcUEyZ3NvUUM0cGtINlprbWJQWWp6R1BVMTQ5NDR2eEhpYTQ1SURPQ2h2ZHNsR0Nnbld3?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNWkJYckV1U051V0J0RXlsdVNIdDJBVkZROGp6aUstdWk3UFA4MEZGOTRqeVF5ZkZYZTJvaF95RWlzQTQzT3BYOTZ2LVBCN2VhemM1elpKOFhrVEJLVnFXN0VsaTZMV0k3WTFkRWlHNjVqWEgyVkI0Z0J2bm9wYmg3cXBRaUp3OWZzeTdCVG9SYjdPWS1PNUNLQW8tNjNJV1nSAaQBQVVfeXFMT2VTOHplSUtXMzZtRUxIVE1tczJVVUw4VUI5aUNXZngzdnR0Q1dERkpvNGM0d3FyQm00N3V3WGh4SEI3UC1qWHExeDhrX2JZNk54UC1jZ0w4TFdoQ2NJcDg1bHdGQXJRTjVWcWNYamxodHNKZTdpODlQdlA4Z3h1QW5OaFplMDN4d1lDa2tWbnFxalNXQkJneFBhN0FTV2dLR2xoZXo?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/irans-irgc-says-not-one-litre-of-oil-will-get-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/442a0fe4bc42480281d4d0bc28f4c6c2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNMmZrdGVSVzRwWlUyNWh1eXd4dGRaclJ3OGdxbGNPTkVUSFpUNTE2UFlpV24wWnI2NkpfNjJHc2t1TUdyMmNZbHAwT1BmSzdaMDRYRTlvYzlPeFVsNUdHNklRV0tnNWxQdElwblc2T1c4MTJUdzNVa2dlYnlVeUdKeU91bC1qQzU2QnJOV2pzM1NJQWFrTEZhcnh1cjFka1lK?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10585394.shtml
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/massive-fires-on-two-oil-tankers-after-attack-in-iraqi-waters?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNWXlWY3F2U0ZWSHFVbnZneDlSeGJvS2J4bU54OEFLeElaUjZGYm5YQ2h2N0RnQnQ2amhpRVU0STRYUS1sVGhlMXBMa2JLeDBRUWlhRFZlYU5yNHlEazU3T3dIV2RXMFJWMXgza3JXcTRlcjdKWTMxdHJOTzNLbVUwdDhES3pPU3hKN3NHY2dIN2pia05CMEE?oc=5
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/2be5a84701ad4b978bff009439d40bce/c.html
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/5efec14abc7b4d53998e9199af28ff2b/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/72fd109f77e741cebd3ae5372865e46a/c.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/634541-us-strike-iran-school/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQSUEzMWRHZDMxYWRvemZSdzFWekVpSm9xaW9pcS1vc0l1bVVjQ2pRR0E2eml0dlMxblI5a1FaV1JrQ3VOaUg5Nm95NWo5ODZIYnhvb3BfM0RUamZ4eUVXcnRwRnI5Q3JKaVZ3djNlMkZhSS1wSHgyUEJ2ZUItanVYYXlQRkpvRmd5eDNOQVZObzFnaEVVZlRBaTBiMlQ0X0RTVHpfbUFGZFNpVFNONjgyWnQ5amRVYkXSAbwBQVVfeXFMUHJDNk96bmoxMDE5NnZsaGVjTDZaUXF1cXpYSmVURUYwcmIxOGZLRzNtVDgzUk0xd0xNU2pIcUFiZ0ZvS3QzZXBTNUxlRHZKTFllNlFDckpBQ3dyb21BSU5rSjk1bUM3T1FNVG82UHBzdWhYTjFhSlZHLVhWUkVXQU4zTFpRek1rcjdPVDhERnJkbWUzN3M2WHQ2a1E
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQR2VYVTZXdTZ1bG9sOUJGMDlobXBSb1pBU05pdW1wZTdJZllYMm5yNUNKY0Q1b1I5a014WFNDdHF2RGJzNTVQTEg0XzM0TGJaYnlRdmZTT2dzd0dNNXVTdmFjelJOMm9KQldUaEJINTFRTUx0NnIwdVp6aHlFbVFsQm1Hc3d0Yk1LTlhxWW1mWQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQaVpsanBCMzd1VkU1WWFkTkk5Rk9zQWdLMEJkQmZsNGRnU3Q5VTJ3SXZHSjlBNXhTNWZCV2o5Zm1SMDVtb3NFNDAxZ2dGM3ZQbkRkV3IyR19GcDlJdkg4aWdYS0U4VkJ1OTFJeEl4cFBhNUNuLTNDMFFDSW5pT2xaS2RGeFdoUjd2eEdyekR3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/11/why-does-the-iran-war-pose-more-dilemmas-for-europe?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQQWEzSjZuZFlqQzZOX2M1bFB2ZTl5cjA3SU55QVJaSXRxU1dVUnhXaXJ5N1podkg5LXRBSU5hdnJadEx1RFMycEpCOG9JcXYwSkdWVE1La05iM21ONnVtWDd5Tk9MTGVlSzlzUnJ2alZsMWNOUzB3S2QzX0E1ZUgwZWI5MFB2M1RtNnEwN1NZVFRKa0xHYks4blNn?oc=5
- [22] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2026/03/11/prime-minister-carney-participates-virtual-g7-leaders-meeting-situation
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tc0pNV3hRZ185TFJLNlQ2SkF1NGExb1NkdTlxYzRldDJXMkdHeGVjT2t6UHFuWE5fejBOS2wtVEtoQXNLM3RFV0E0SUZGQ0NhbDF2dVQ2bnFNSUZURnZmNnN4OVVGdmQ0S1ZlbjNQOTVFdHNuam93SElscThMbVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260312/8a27c89d85d94d73afa65276ee67cfd5/c.html
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxORzRjNjhXOFFPSTRtcktYdk1vVmhWdjV2UFd3X0dPeVhLMzVZTnNRRWduQjRYOENnbmhUbGVsa2JyUzVXOGVQMms1dU9sQ1F3MlEyMzZ5b0pzYXdUWmhOLVJkUV9KaF83NmpzSUlYV245ejFlVDBvOG55VXNIcGljdXJ1cHVaTXNZVHZod0Q4bk9VWng2ZUxIX3RobGxRZ0VfSjROUURwcmZycEhjengwODN3?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOY1VEblp3ZlhTcjBpR1NKU1NvR0hzeklVbEt4WmtSOHpobW56QWR4SFJ4a3ZUeE41bzRJVnBicWJnUm1DNmFNMzc3QWNTRTVjcDNIc1V6MkxEdjAxa05TMXJqbUVDMHZLTVR6MkZlcGY3UHJ4dG9VRzJoVDVGLUN4Y0pQNjlqbTBsTXZhWUtncHJxZi01SGVZelowUEZaaDJqV2xB?oc=5
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4100584-record-400-million-barrels-iea-releases-emergency-oil-reserves.html
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/whats-left-in-iran-could-be-taken-out-in-an-hour-says-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.dw.com/de/hohe-spritpreise-wegen-iran-krieg-öl-reserve-wird-angezapft/a-76306889?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNGFGS0YxQnVyaVhYNGZ0ejQwZmo4YUNnc1NycHdjdGt3WlE1dkNzNXZNY1hXNnZzQjZ4VGkyQU1SbXdHZGQ5Rk1laExkbGVjeXdTLV9Dc0NjMWtsM09oT09oeElQUm9DS0ZXSUtqS1lMRDQySjNiQ2JuNFEtX1BTaERGTGg5TXMxRkpiNlh3Q3lGY2ZQci1fZ2JpOEtjM3NlSmpibzBYc1ZmbXZuNEhacWlHdkpZUDJZcmZpVlVaNHhLYU5BVm1BTlBR?oc=5
2026-03-11
2026-03-11
进展要点
- 黄金：避险需求上升，价格可能上涨，受中东冲突推动。
- 石油：短期暴跌超11%，但地缘风险支撑中长期看涨，关注供应中断。
- 美元：避险货币属性增强，可能走强，受益于全球不确定性。
- 股票：风险情绪恶化，全球股市承压，特别是能源和国防板块。
- 债券：利率因通胀担忧可能上升，加拿大等国债券收益率面临上行压力。
- 加元：加拿大加息预期支撑汇率，但地缘风险可能限制涨幅。
- 欧元：欧盟内部分歧和东欧风险施压汇率，走势震荡。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金 / 美元上涨
石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 通胀压力
地缘不确定性 / 增长担忧 / 股市下跌
通胀上升 / 央行加息 / 货币走强
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNWE1pdjF6NTVIOEF4aHpWS2QwZ3hfR0hqbWNiXy05Q0oyMG9oYkZRSEhRR09ueDVWblB3djJZNVk4VV9qT1hQSWFiRWZva2tJVzVabzYtTkZYQ2dVQkJKcDNfd3VPbmU2cnF0dXcwRVVEaFI2bDJFMUpiVmRnS2dIRF9Ea2p3dnJNMUZKYXZYMmY2Slk1dFdJemcwbUE1WXQwSVFvWVQ3M0VTY1FwZ2d3UkVPS3czd9IBuwFBVV95cUxOTUJHdnZHdTJZTUFvOEFPNGNSRnJtODhuUWNXXzBtNmR3TmQyX1dHbVN1bGl5NnZGSWpjLWlUWmtreWNJZDhRMzlJYmhWLWRJT3RMRWVhRE1uUXhXWEllYlBjZ3hPS2RNYVdaS3VwRlI0cXFmeTMtS3JySEZUeExQV1pISGtEbC1tcFotek8tdFFNaEN5WGlPZ2xFOVA
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNUkdiTFNjZENxQ1Z4bHZQb1FfeG1kYjZFblhPdVExeDQ0MjJwN3RYX3ZTRnE1aERiUm9rdzdqZmRWY21nRk03UWNOUVFKYk1tN08weG53UEYzSlZvdkZWRWk4VDdfT3BMbThYb3BWRld3WVRUM21wYWlZc1IxRjVITVQ0QlJnSUlKTmhr?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxOazVDTEpWOThHZHY2dHFZazh0YWhNQW9JMGk4bXVNYWNIVzlTeTA4WlNLLXhYMGRsRHBWMWNBVmtIUkJEVzhjUmFiSU1IVktZSTdLZm5ROV8yNUE1VnVhLUZIWjVid0luT1hmS2MxNnNlY3czT0pMa1VEV05OQ3pqcHhvUkJ5R0ZuZ0dETUZNQkNkZFQ3R29ueDNOVF8wX2ZCYU40UEQ1c1JoUjFIRTd6WUVBWF9iZkNqeXo1ek5QTzZGeVljOUluWW5jOWJnal93S0I00gHYAUFVX3lxTFB5V3dtclAyYms0MlBGbTZnaThKcDNuNmFONmRONjNJeVg1Z1JNVlhwVV9reWJTeS1DcnVKSUpZeDk0eW1FWDYyMGFEQmg4NGtkaFVNV3RlQzNCeUhNVUoxUG1PT0M2S1Q4S0tFRk9ER3hzMlZkVGkxYlQtNmYtSjl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310232439BDY
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310235751Mhd
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634366-tehran-fuel-sites-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-181914444.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE84cUltYlRQSkRGYmo3SnBVNGpaa01XbUJRSUxnOERzSE1pdXBFWFZIV0p0MFpGR1N0T1M1T0RqMU40T0VIR3V5YnEzSXNKakhyVXBueGFWTHJaQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/10/around-140-us-service-members-wounded-in-iran-war-pentagon-says?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0rjyr22ypeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/634413-trumps-call-to-putin/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260311/687b46ac645f4341a6d428a202df8b08/c.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNVVYzT1l4TmlxM2FjazNVc3VLdi1LcURsamVBcmhXWVNYSjltb0NkWFV2UmNxUHlIa3NSMEJ0SGtHem9zSlhkWWNtVTNDMzZVMnV3RjBfZU83Sl9uUldtS29fRGx0Sjk3NGtmWXE5NU85MktNSlMzbmx0ZDlKUzNHWTFDOHBwNFJFVlM0bUpHV1c?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPa2gyZDM2MWVreEVscXdpNTlGLVBONlVvUjU2Z2dJZmxXei1hZDJ3UGItYUVJMjJPbGtXTFBXNGtkRzZOc1gtYy11ZHQwMV9NMDJOOTlZRzJLYXo2b0ZLQ1pQM1J4cFdxUWYySUFabHRacDBkMXloQTJLVWRtZlBHQnhMUzhncG5ULW9vajk0SFJYb0VoamJ4X3VSaVphdUgyV0ZqS09paVU3TzZmS0M4ak1nX2ZCbnfSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWRhZm11VVFPbFBRelZJcWtXekRJb1p6YVdXYy1OS1duY1hIbVBLcHdLMllqY25USG1HdXNialpzMjE2RUFlelA1Z0l6TDhIOXFqVXV4cnJNY0pDM1ZsV0gxcDBRNWcxNjhyRjZhQmp5a2ozczhxODhtMDNuWFFvVFFKRnQzQXhlZk82V056UzFtMEFsdG1BNGpJeFV
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxOVnM1SG5iRE9GdkVoUHdZNGhSOU1FdnhaVlNFd1VPOWFPLXdFQXVIVHR4RjAxWjNmaTcyRkF5alpUT29DQUFQR1gzVVlORFRla0FsSXB0Y2taQTFMak5GdUxTZ0pHenpVVXlpeEpDNkdsY3psdTFqV3NNNVZLcU1EYXdFUmxsVVpfay1nWUhSVGVPSGw4VlQ5ZnJJN3I0Mkljc0ZqdFoyN0lVZl9YbGlEU1VnLVdiSmh6aDllOGViNGNGNU9QQ0VVMkV3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/10/german-chancellor-concerned-us-israel-have-no-exit-plan-for-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.sky.com/story/dark-ships-and-shadow-fleets-8211-what-is-crossing-closed-strait-of-hormuz-13517746
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBreGc4VlV5ZnF6bzJfQlhEMlNwcWVhWVBIenBWNUo4XzZIbTVLT2Y5SHRmbl9uX2wxVmlWN1JpUl95ZWRlWUZqV2VLWFV0NnB1UmYwZGVlOE5wQUIwRXgtYTVaVExZOFNtVHc?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNNE5ELWRWNFp2SnFnWGczUWdHMHo5dVM5U21KczN3LUFibjlqY1c0MUJiNS1yaXVrSkkxSGEyMlRfQjFqY0s0Sk1jQlR5TXh1bk1PZXVId2RTaVlxTXU1a1IwRXk1ZUYwZnBvNThHdGlxeWkyTHZzOERVOTRmZ2UtWnE4djFRN3ROVXVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/634398-eu-bosses-split-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxOMmdaVWhxMjJ4cXBHOTBrVldZQ0NkNS1GNXhRemZRVEZkcU95NDU3V0JjWFZWQ3ZEU09SX3JGd0FjUFFCTklPYXBXaWt6bzFXeTZSbWk0RFJubUhwNC05RERMV1lDOXBlcVBUZ2R0YXhpWFk1a3ljck5ObFRqenQ4aTBiOXV3OHo0Q0lQMjBFZTRFRmZOY0pHV3RZazR0MElYdkhnYVBBWWlfcmJYSnRIdmc2MWV2Q2JKd0tqLUlUcVpnU2hFZE9FaTFoTl9zZzlBTC1UcVp1WmU?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/10/global-airlines-hike-ticket-prices-as-iran-war-sends-costs-soaring?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://cdhowe.org/publication/whats-putting-upward-pressure-on-inflation
- [24] https://www.iris-france.org/iran-10-jours-de-guerre-ou-en-est-on
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-iran-une-guerre-d-usure-s-installe-au-moyen-orient
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-frappes-entendues-au-dessus-de-doha
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-replay-guerre-en-iran-la-strat%C3%A9gie-am%C3%A9ricaine-expliqu%C3%A9e-par-pete-hegseth
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/focus/20260310-europe-s-borders-under-threat-from-russia-baltic-states-gear-up-for-war
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260310-trump-says-war-in-iran-will-end-soon-%E2%80%93-but-threatens-to-escalate
2026-03-10
2026-03-10
进展要点
- 石油：布伦特原油突破100美元/桶，关注是否因政策干预回落至80-90美元区间。
- 黄金：避险需求推高金价，若冲突缓和可能回调。
- 美元：作为避险货币走强，但若风险情绪改善或承压。
- 股票：亚太股市暴跌后，关注欧美市场开盘反应，科技和能源板块敏感。
- 利率：通胀预期上升可能推高国债收益率，但避险需求或压制涨幅。
- 外汇：避险货币如日元和瑞郎可能受益，商品货币如加元和澳元承压。
- 债券：地缘风险增加安全资产需求，但通胀担忧可能抵消部分收益。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀加剧
油价暴涨 / 亚太股市暴跌 / 避险情绪蔓延 / 黄金和美元上涨
特朗普缓和言论 / 冲突结束预期 / 油价下跌 / 风险资产反弹
G7政策协调 / 石油供应增加 / 油价稳定 / 市场情绪改善
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxPTFN3NW5QZFdieXBpUmh0N3dBYndKcjkzaVp3N2lISU1VbkZNelVMZGlHb1V5b3lYSVJTMjY1bzJNdGdjNmljdjFfY3RoV1RwbFpXVENCTE9ndzB4amI3cmdoT25iVDhWRWxXNWtRWU5HR2Y3NkN0QzIxa0djVlBlWjY3eGtaWHhhSlRv?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFBVV95cUxQNjN6NlVFX0IxVW5penE4TEV4WHZMZTY2YjhER3kwWkxYcHZudldsM1RVN3hBdHlEcFNwS3J6RnNqZllqN2I0cHZXSlBMSjllS05SM0dQWG5tNTJFLWVLXzEtZkxsS2ZxYzJxSEV4ZkFUZ0hUd1V1d2xja0xBcVpJZFBBRDI4TGo1RXc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-israel-launch-strikes-across-175355831.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE5lYzVaNzRiRU1vNjF5MWFMb3d4N0VoUlB3UEs0TFpDcjZEZG5JbFRqN2t5Q1lDbFZYSU5hSTZoR1RDYTRHcUgzQ1ZyUXlObmNEdlIzeEdndUxFOEd5SGlPSENZSWJqTVBaV0dLRTVNTTVnLVBpbTV6Qw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634212-oil-100-barrel-small-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-second-ballistic-missile-at-turkey-nato-intercepts-will-the-attack-trigger-article-5/articleshow/129332235.cms
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/f124c669dd43416f8e4ba9fd908aacf3/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/abea00315f4b47289cfbeefdaac77f79/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/20260309/db66c48278554551bc2be3748f7a46ee/c.html
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/5b9e2b8621c04b448f63a5d1d86a1829/c.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/87c01a718e3449b3bdc495475c795182/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-10-of-us-israel-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260309/a509f2ed53c94024ab2516747db85aba/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584278.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584273.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584277.shtml
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260310/fada381db92e44e0af00b9b1e381f1e7/c.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-will-be-over-very-soon?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-AFBVV95cUxPMFo5M3IwNzJnbG5TNFBPY1BySkk5M2VkNEJsdW5IekgwUFJLVmR2SEhFTFBuSVRsOWN6R3hWa0xtWlRYcktzSlJlaHJfXzc3V25QZS0zd1dpUlZPc2k5dGptRUYzeFhiWUtYSndEaEQwOWVRdHFmcmMzeDVvb21hNGtlS3dIWHRuUG5oRkZPanZ1b3JMbDlTUUVJUllqclRubGRIVzBCQ20ta0xKc0txWk9MN1hIVkVfSzBUakVrMm9tMDl2YzdwOHF5VFpaWmN1SkN2WGtTY0RKb2JfOHJmdXVWYzBWMDlXZDNaUWtjRm5fMjF0Sm1VYg?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7wFBVV95cUxObXJkNnV2QTNQczJIdmhOX3YwTE1IdUJ2QzZ2MmRxRWJ4YWFKU2h4Y1VaQkFKNG8weVNxX0tIM1J1S2pKMUNiV3gzblB1NndnbHBhRkduX05OOGFlNjdEa3N2WGVMMDhfS2xxb2ZCMVZQVjRBZkJ1SENSTHlaYVdVdDJGdl9id1g0dXZ3OTlJZVp2VFZxdzNQV0lNeXZIc0x5RUFWTWFhRGJYWkNpdTRwQVphcVZFWkptVDNEbktjTUlwbnJFelB6Mkx3WnVUU3B3WF82V3VmMlhwRXNVX0dJUjM5VHZfa1BmN25iMmxOdw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE4wTExGeE5CMjNoYWJKOWN4bDloaTJMVE9NaGJ5amtkQllLUmpJSVN2RkM5ZDk2VmYyRFRuMU5GQUFDc21JNzVBWThrejhCeDZ3ZGptWVhjQktBRmNqa3QwWXM1bzBkZVMyTHdWb29PUkphMUlPeHItNjk5X1E?oc=5
- [23] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-trump-says-war-to-end-soon-but-not-immediately/live-76271521?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584264.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxPT2lEbHhnbHQ3ckhiaWplNmV0OXVuZVdPUmVvemFXaG44dGxMNVFIS29nMW5uRkRfZ0V5Q3BnZ0RTSXh1VWcxQzc4WGxLNTBFVnJqdUJXVDZZVHhUTUx4b2h2ZU5VSUwzMm5fcnpJVXBUNEtXZ1IyRXdfRFc5UDU5aXFiSXRRX2M0WWMxdnU5cC1ELU9vU0x2c1pHQVdWcVppWXlhMVdad2x3T3RtQkFnZWtWUzhYQk16eFNTQWlydm50MWJqRDVGX3NDMUJvYTFSQVlIV2xUdVNrakdQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4099791-war-update-122-combat-clashes-on-front-lines.html
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071332ggP
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071551lHG
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310070742PLx
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310070606xM6
2026-03-07
2026-03-07
进展要点
- 油价：WTI原油突破90美元/桶，布伦特原油接近93美元/桶，关注海湾供应状况。
- 黄金：避险需求推动价格上涨，监控地缘风险进展。
- 美元：就业数据疲软可能施压，但地缘风险提供支撑，走势震荡。
- 股市：道指下跌，科技股承压，避险情绪主导全球股指。
- 债券：降息预期升温，收益率可能下降，但通胀风险抑制下行空间。
- 外汇：避险货币如日元和瑞郎可能走强，新兴市场货币承压。
- 大宗商品：石油和黄金领涨，工业金属因增长担忧疲软。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策收紧预期
弱就业数据 / 降息预期升温 / 美元下跌 / 股市波动
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和石油价格上涨
海湾生产中断 / 油价飙升 / 经济增长担忧 / 市场风险情绪恶化
来源
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260306/ec1ff965f49e473ba5e109ca53a30371/c.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAJBVV95cUxQOFkzal9NUmh6OVNYVlZBUVpJVTNMY2lRTWxqemR6STRpckhJc3lkSTczSWVpT0F3NnZZeUtZUnRLeVpBUmlwR21DSEhIMVp6WjVFWHlva2U1N3lTbWktZF9hcWNUMU0xdE5wTld6SE9OTU05Z3Vuejhsak1uN2VvaXRYckJkV09ySG9oUkl3N1NGTXVyZlpKblByZGNDamJRMnJhNjUwVmtHZFNPVG1qRF85Y25mSkkzV3pmSHVpend6TS04LV9fN3RtbGdWSWZVcHpVRXBQcjk2WVdCdW1aMU1EYlNxUzlzMDB5UnpYODhUeG9UMFBLOXBVUmJFTzluaW8xTmNEVVdhRk0yTFd2bk55U1V1SUJWa1l5Wi1EWXJUTG13?oc=5
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy031ylgepro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/strikes-on-iran-to-last-four-to-six-weeks-white-house-says?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTFA4aGFEWWF2N1MxbVZUckpRSFBXaWduejNwS3lGSktJbV8wcmFVRW9vRUU1c0hNZERqdWo5S3ViUVZpclZodllUTEJTNU55cURfSnpjbEhn?oc=5
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Business/dow-drops-650-points-iran-war-sends-oil/story?id=130824337
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNeG5wRnd4dlUyRnM1TWlyUFJMSlIxRHR0NlFyNTlLcUJoUmE4QzhGMWJ1Rm1CeU1jX3BGazgzWTRlUEZhS0tIbEpibjFnY3Z5S2x3X3VwTC11akh1cENhVzN4cnpPRzdFaDVGZjdQQVVwZ045b3hubjhDLTY0Z2hwSGNoTUxQVnA3ODhCYXJWYWFlS1ZzeGdwMTItSzJzeGFHR0h2VXp1bjY?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd98091g28o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-provided-iran-information-help-191321667.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxOTS1SbFJTdkh0alhXZ3J6VTRKSUFNZjcyeFo4SU1UME5laUZuRk5WTmJDQkk0VFNuRmJfN0g4b3c5VlZxWm96Y1FfVXY2T1NOMFZwbTNlbGI0NVlRVndWbktkSzIwazdIY2VWYkFldFlLeFZpemZVQm5HV0FDV1N0dmp2WXlMdzVNVE1RYVhPeGtfYS05UHJ3X0NpTDnSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0VncGZqT0FINHlFY0piRmlHWWJTOXZDaGhzRkJnc25KbklNa3lJaXREWGlFVUR2b21NWGJtZ0Rkd29pcHRFZ09OXzR2MEdSY3FubmNQLXBucFBOczZCY1ZRM0NjUlcwT093ZGE1UkY0cDV4cE9fU1NCSWVsaXVJQ2x1S2lBOUhhQ0JMYWtwTnNLT1hleFpHTmlEM2tMNmdPLUtB?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/why-did-the-us-torpedo-irans-prize-warship?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNVGZmRGhwVEZsMXNxODNwY05xNUtGdUxveXdfakFMakhZbERtcWgxTW9MRXR4LVJFdHhXOWctczRLb05CSVFPZ0E3VkFDVTY4UWxQcDVPOE5kTEJLeWg4Q2dBYUlfXzBSTlF2cktLNEpiTklfc3dnT3dLYnBTdk1iSUh6OVZxOEMyWVZxdTlTZ3JMUlRxb2RrLVAzTUJLUWlRSVB6QkNMMVZfaWNYUGNCZk5GQk5XWDZyTHkxWdIBwgFBVV95cUxQVS1iVFphVlRheUcxNlgzYmhnbVFsTUZlbFljTWJGN0drbWZyd014NjRBT0FOSGprMXlkS3pEdFJiT2FuX09PR1BkU0I0eTVfM1lYSkJWSWJxc3ZrMDViNU9WUWJTY1hHQUZSZ0pUZ0JycXhpMTBXXzR6NjdVT3VVLWtXVWdEUHoyNDFocEVuQTZNX1hROXQ
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260307/b9c82f2aab50482fb69b63c615e4d37a/c.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15VEw1WUVXMzJiS0ZBUUVRRjRndzlVQktlajVJQWIxc25Gd18xLWJ4X0Uxa3BTZ2dXVHU4alJTYXNMOFdsdXJSaXdocjVwZlhFd0YxSzJ3UW1sQQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/6/us-and-israel-attacking-iran-at-record-pace-war-monitor-says?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.sky.com/story/weve-taught-toddlers-to-take-cover-living-in-dubai-as-iran-attacks-13516244
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5jaS1FdjUzSFh3Vy03S1JmazRyV1V0ZFF3VzlUblUyV2ZSQmVIYVhwTl9JMnQ2YUVfQUpTdVo5dnB1RHdVUDJ3c01zTVJESzhsV21SZXZRMzVMdw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/634027-who-will-invade-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNakVxRTA4NGhrNkNzRW5ScS1OamsyaHo1enBwTmtGNUdMcU9vVTZBdlRFOUlhdWl2YXlva2ZySmxqMkZDTHJrQVZsUDZxTmxIV2VyTWhQLUM1bURTeUQ0dW9JUF9TMzFGY1pMSmpybi1EZlpadW5HTWIwZGJoWDAtMUNKU0xRNnByRFc5cldXNFlPYzNFZS1rSXBIVk9qV1RqcXlxY3BDOGR6bk9FOWpWOA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1PSWUwWGZyVlU1QVoyOE1PWk1md1MxR1dKRE1iN3U0SHRFZllvTlNxS0x2cDE1amVLUVFFYmVpQ0V4YTlfMmNBNHFTQXZLR0IyVUVRd0Uza2VBXzFaVlU3dUxmM2l3d2tDQ1VxLVdpSGY?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQM212N1dDQVJlUjJlODFrWlVpVUFYWG1oYkoweE1PQUo1Zy1BWGFQX2Z1emFBc1BVUVJHMUU3MTNUck5PYlNwQ2VkZUR3c0lRYlQ4VVl1SEc1OVJTV21HVWZTRGNTQ0FOaWk1TDFMcjlOVENPZUtycEs5ZnRfanNCbnl6cXhvRmQtYldjbTdQY1NzM09tOUpJT0w4cHdMNW00QVNDVHMtdkR4Zm1wQnVEUGpR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/634016-iran-war-trump-division/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUFh4c0djeTJobnBEVmtQeVUyTVJubkw5UGducS02T1pUMjE2QmhDQnM4aVRlSnRacFoxelVIazZnSExCdGZvMnZKcFU2dmt6dzg3WHcwN2FfQjZLaFNKNXpuemRSckxubXdYdGxXeWptek92dXhfaVNSVmlVWTNJaHJjVDY0Z9IBiwFBVV95cUxNNmVWRVloV2N6OHFickp4MVNwT1BLZGd1ckYxWlhYUll2NVNwNHNOVHpTSDJNQXpNM0lhaDJFN1lCYzYzTlBvb1hZVVRwb05RbjkxZS1TdTYyRkl5bGZ2T0o2WTk3aHJSSGVXTWl1MkFBZU5heG9fNDRyTE8zVjJ3QXB5dFMzci1tRDVB?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/6/has-donald-trump-failed-to-sell-the-iran-war-to-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPci1VOHg5YXlMYzh5RkNfcXJsZEZGQlFqVDhMYmpyWEZqR2Q4VzRiVlJ6S2hpUVZia21JRU84aElKV3ExU0lKT0Ffc1R4Z2lRTUNMeTFaWWU3UGQ1LTV4YWJ5eG9nQ3Y3VHl4eUx6Y28xLU04Um56S1dVVjJiWVVLS1NnLXFnQUtXT3NrY29VS29WS2ZnNGJhMmZJbEJuZ1ZHek84RUJJNHlxQ0tSVE1FWlFmMEI?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1ZVkc1SXRLM0I1RU13T2U2V0NrcnJXMFJONDZmYjVDOVFObEE3ODJmVHVjLXFkNGVjVkQwekZjaC1tQWxDdXhiYzlTRm1xMXhkNUFmY0VKLTA5ZnhMOG9HUnJfVGpKMlB1bmNOVlVmOHRUdlRMMk9Jb0hnbw?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNTXVNdVREcHA3Ti1kMmIwUkhQbkt4cmhWdkNQSlJvb3hlX1E1ZXFPRmlQS3JtMUJaMVo4X0g4bElFLUdZRFk5ZG8yUHNrYTYzQnpnVVdZcVdQOHdqZzBLZmNPdWJDcG4zNU5LWjJtelY2WG02OGdKeHZRM0gtRlhQOTBYRjRORk5XSUFYRDRkTFFJVHEwNFpqakhWYnZmMExYQVZoN291bw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/6/us-job-market-stalls-unemployment-rate-rises-before-fed-decision?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpw004xqxnjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [30] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g88q764njo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-03-06
2026-03-06
进展要点
- 石油：WTI原油期货突破81美元/桶，布伦特原油达85.41美元/桶，关注进一步供应中断。
- 黄金：避险需求上升，价格可能继续走强，作为对冲地缘风险工具。
- 美元：作为避险货币，美元指数可能上涨，但需关注美国政治不确定性。
- 股市：全球股市波动加剧，能源板块受益，但整体市场承压于风险情绪。
- 利率：通胀预期上升可能推高国债收益率，央行政策会议受关注。
- 外汇：避险货币如日元和瑞郎可能走强，新兴市场货币面临压力。
- 天然气：荷兰和英国批发价格上涨近50%，亚洲LNG价格上涨39%，供应紧张。
- 大宗商品：稀土价格飙升，中国限制措施影响全球供应链，相关股票波动。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运瘫痪 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀和增长担忧
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金、美元上涨和股市下跌
能源供应冲击 / 商品成本上涨 / 央行政策滞后 / 经济放缓风险
冲突扩大 / 第三方国家介入 / 市场不确定性加剧 / 资产价格波动
来源
France 24 #2 / RT News / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / ECB Press Releases / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-iran-under-heavy-attack
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-global-reactions-and-military-deployments
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-bombing-rages-in-iran-as-war-widens-in-middle-east
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633892-iran-crisis-oil-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260305-iran-la-succession-d-ali-khamenei-s-organise
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-iran-pummeled-by-intensive-airstrikes-as-war-enters-day-six
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNNkItZ0E2aDd2UDRLYm1nWW5KR1EyY05RX3lTUnFOTHpwbnJfckZBR0RjclVNT1paVnRod01rUVgwVTl0dy1KUlB2Y1czZmRZMkNRR1lFaTRnV09FQktuMGRIMnlxVEh6Zk95Vjk0N1dsaVI4Uy1na3ZBcWVNU1NYYkRtMUtGcURZRnpHeFUxaDh4QkRJOGIzUGt2d2ozaGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTnRsclY0NEk5NHVmMHQwd3BzWjhZNWhSblVFaTRBM19KUWFXbjhzVFNIT1FLc2lyWHpXX0NSVmJyUjRUQTlwQWM0MVI2a0NCNDk1Wi01aHZSR3VMVEs0eUh3QThlLWgyT3laR25SaWR5WnFIdk94LXY4Zmd6eEVOQ3pQaDVRdjEzMzhCb1F4cTVzMjVJdjM2RDdMeXJhZ2Q5czJhcmc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603060611491Qk
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026030606043019B
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/rare-earth-yttrium-hits-new-high-up-140-fold-in-1-year-on-china-curbs
- [11] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg260305~4a9b7afe1c.en.html
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/diesel-at-16-month-high-as-iran-war-drives-oil-prices-up-further-13515828
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQZGRlNF9hdHF0dzN0dkZTQU4wWGxla2J6MHB4NkpwalBTVTRrNkxaMWM3TmNVOWZSUEM0TnZ0aXNiNW5XUDhWX1JvOEJLM05tdjFGRlJ2YTQyT040RVdOT2RnYVBrbHFrWU1KSVRtaHFxOTRTbkdHMTFFV1FYSVE2c0VIVWZVTDRDNy1MbGFyVGRYXzJtYjBPbkZHdDRaN3BCT1BSZFVWeWY3UlF6aFdHUG5CV21mZw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/us-house-of-representatives-to-vote-on-latest-effort-to-halt-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260305-how-vulnerable-is-the-gulf-iran-war-escalation-undermines-energy-security
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-us-war-on-iran-has-no-plan-b-warns-scott-lucas-trump-just-wants-to-kill-people-and-blow-stuff-up
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOcGN3STktTEJxdnpGSTc3TUdaWk81eWo0eFR0NmtRaXNBaXhwNF9UV25hZmxPODlsTFplajBmWkJCVEJkYnhicXZncmlVTGJublV3bTFCVC01cDNFY1ZaZ0d4UDJkNWl3S1RWNDd2cl9TRXNzcmVBMm40a3pJcEVNa0VYN0hzS041RVg4TFF0VlhyNHR1aXVjMi1GbEtvYTlKMW5oaGpJckpfQkt2MllEQXdsUnVjR19lYUFVQtIBwgFBVV95cUxPU3FjSXNLdlREWFhzcUdYMkF0U1F3VG1aOE9hREM0VV80RnJwWTljRWhGNGU5NGt3QXR3UVY1ZjUwSU5yOUN4Tm4yNExLYUpWZlB0TlkzUlg2ZFZSZXFfOFNya1VZV1pUQ0tSMmdtbk5RczBfOF9Cb0RZb0xSaC1jNE1XZjF6TEdEZEdxVjJYWTlWMFIwaVZ
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/explosions-rock-tehran-as-israel-intensifies-strikes-on-government-sites?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy884ekn0jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/buildings-devastated-by-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-death-toll-rises-to-77?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-israel-orders-people-to-leave-swathe-of-beirut
- [22] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east-5-march-2026
- [23] https://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-twice-declines-to-rule-out-britain-joining-strikes-on-iran-13515754
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQOUJNX3JOYkZqM1ViTmw1TlpoOUhWT0RkQ0pHeDR6UFhpeHZMWHJ5djlCSnU5WU5PV283ZU1hdHFvTVhDY2ZjQkthWHpZUUJpdjZ5Z2RIMEdFbjBBNlhNU1hfYlNRNFpGNnY3QzlSeHVZeVNHcU5lU21Ud1hVXzFwWk9pREJTOVFsc2NwUXYzVHh0TUJE?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQdVRyUlBoQ3UwOHlodnBjVnJKYnJSS2FmTDVHUkxTQ1dHWG9ucC1sdmFIdVN4dEsxMGE5eGo1Y3VCV2RFbkVvVVRNTDF3Mjg3UVpkUnpUaUt6VXJXUkFmMEl3QmFXT1JOdmRpQmVLMkhGOGxKUi14QzQzdk5TT3NaaExBaUdNN1FGclJCM1ZDdHBacEFiUF9TazNTdUpidUhYWTdYWHFBXzI3TUJtaXIzd0RGSkV6dG8?oc=5
- [26] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/5/aje-onl-tt_irn_usiranmonday_av_v1-020326?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633899-politico-us-preparing-months-long-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxOUWpRVWFsaG5naThuUzljRkpCcjJIenFzeGRnZU5lN1ZIX3VvWFcxMUZJOGVvbTZFaTRNSFcwX1puMGJ2TzhlbF8ybkdLbDJwU1NEUXliVkNxLVA3a3NJVHA3ZnVneXJ3VEpkbEdHeXJXSHJPcTd3MXBxVGU1UlBIZUtFR25ZR1JSb19vY3NHdzd0UExHTEhweEpnTnc0VDR6c0hqYXdBRERwWmFnSjRpT3lqNkF6TU9iN19n?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/5/videos-show-destruction-after-us-and-israeli-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-05
2026-03-05
进展要点
- 油价因地缘风险溢价而波动，但美国财长淡化供应风险，布伦特原油需关注90美元关口
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，但受美元走强和股市反弹压制
- 美元指数因地缘避险和关税预期而获得支撑
- 美股在接触传闻和经济数据推动下反弹，纳斯达克涨1.29%，标普500涨0.78%
- 半导体和科技股表现突出，英伟达涨1.66%，AMD涨5.82%
- 加密货币相关股票因特朗普支持稳定币而飙升，Coinbase涨14.57%
- 关注韩国KOSPI指数在昨日历史最大跌幅后的反弹可能
- 美国国债收益率需观察避险需求和通胀预期的平衡
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 中东石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产（黄金、美元）需求
关税上调至15% / 全球贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓和股市波动
地缘风险缓解传闻（美伊接触） / 市场情绪改善 / 股市反弹和油价调整
积极经济数据（美国就业） / 支撑风险资产 / 部分抵消地缘负面影响
来源
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/briefing/the-us-accelerating-its-attacks-on-iran.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxNdjU0NmlDTWxZNnNDQlhDWGdqSHhJbGt6dzRaX21RRTdYVVdXWUF5MG1OMHlOMVFYWHRtZEpmYzJreTRyR3hSbnRKeVBJRHBpdjdoR096dWkzN0FlcEhhZXNNcnIzVU9lMjlmZEZINHI5Q0xnUXpVUmE4MDloaklUQW01YjdHNjM4aDFPbUcyeXZRNzdqbEtJaGtKR3BHOUV1LWowalhtSkxwSHA3OGpsN2s5R3FTY3hhellV0gHAAUFVX3lxTE5JQm81cFJhanQ2VlJoSlZCZGQxZi1YMFdsWV93a3IwN1kwNVQwQVFWWHBPc0g1QXV5S05zZjFlTGtNYWtZZ29RNXR6aHVweUVUcUZVdWxVZTAweEFmMnprd0lZQXFtdnFMVVhqLS00ZDN3ekZ5Nkk5RkZWb1d3OWc4bko5dVozQktkZnpfb3g1VzlrUjJuVnR
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/death-toll-in-iran-surpasses-1000-as-israel-us-strikes-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305073628QBz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050522586xF
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV0UySVFKQmRQOFNKTUpZX2xFbUFaT0Fpa3ZZdFJld0ZTU3o2V1VEWGlxbTJOYTRnTHNPSy1Ed3p5OXJjcWNjRVJsM2ZWeFctZE5mN3BmY3RVcF9mRDh6UEl4ZXNZTG1XLTZMRnVvNllrNldpT3g3M1R1VGxKOVFFa2M1cjNZVHJLbU1Ga2VUeVMwM3pkS21YUDR30gGfAUFVX3lxTFBiNVBqUnNhVGgyUGhqOVZFeEVlODdvcV90OEpjZnRpV1AxR0FzbXgtYkp2RVF0ZkFjajRVb3ZUaHhJS2dOS1FrRGtXS21GdFNaZjlheElfUkNGMlVTaFllWXJfRDRGelFPU0dBRm4wY1UwTWFoN19LSmI5YXI0d2xJc2V6LTAxanIzWVhSS21VOHdUWGFNTGJrMHMya0dZVQ?oc=5
- [7] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1042499/korban-tewas-serangan-as-di-iran-capai-1045-orang
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/international/watch-exact-moment-us-strike-hits-iranian-ship-killing-over-85/articleshow/129033347.cms
- [9] https://abcnews.com/Politics/video/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st-130753852
- [10] https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st/story?id=130752053
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/world/middleeast/iran-navy-ship-sri-lanka.html
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305001514U4x
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/us-submarine-torpedoes-iranian-warship-in-indian-ocean/a-76216943?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9xSDI4dFhkT2E1NklVZXNqMU1hdXJSNEUyMERzSW5xb3BKMm41ZlB1Mk56TFhJMFdzUlhWaGJDcTNmY3Y3YVpjNzZMc2hjR0xYeUdNZEYtQUdzWVdsNlhOdnM3TGdHRTlmX1pXenVraHM?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPNXM5TFNKSmxnUUIyVlVNY1M5Sl9rdkxmSEZ0amVJM1BJQzVLQmNMeENQcDRfLU1TLVh3Ukw4YjRqUnVqM0JOYjV6U0NMVTRrSU8tT2hKOVFqMF82MDNXbjZMRjZvR19lSUFXVTIzQ3pmZTgwTG1PZU1mTVo5cU52TW5aOVJTM1h0QnMxbnFGZm0xdDVIX04xTC1DeGFFa25Oa3VyUWpR?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/over-100-people-missing-after-us-sinks-iranian-military-ship-off-sri-lanka?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxPN3FTcWRwVG9yZlZtYURzOWhjeS1rX2xkQlBJaEJZZFh2TDg2ei1pOHp3eENOVlpHcmZ3UDduOUtRQTdvaUM4OW5lSWlhdEZ3WHFDb2Vzc1lsYmUydWlCN2V6cFBkTlRvdnZ2bjlHa1lvWTE4dlZhei1oNTFJOVZPeTU4Zk9Mb0htRTdON3BCcWVuUjdCbTN3RTZ3dmhQc1h5Mm1ha1k5VkxBZkNCeGE5OWY4Sm5yeXF5RWxaTmRqT2F5YUNoT1haTE4tWmkyR1lDQWFpenB2SExTa2xwbHNVT2d1azBiZE90cjkxaHByRVVOblBYQ3h4dEZuWGFSYnVT?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNZ3o2Z0QySUZYbzZhdzNBVmgyNkRoNW9YYkF1NmlsM3RDTFRLWFY1M0Y1Z0t5bXg3YngtNHpVeTZ5ZmkwOUhYX2tTN2h1bkRQSnNpZmZKS2V3dENRS3NOMGsta2xtd2lVWktmLURjbzNWY09xWVJwc2lzeTFheVRXYkJsTzJGQjhQLVRITjRIZ1VRc3Y2Zi10Z1dzWEhVN1ViQ0NfWUFaU05SZHdYYWNlMFl4SQ?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/us-will-rain-missiles-death-and-destruction-on-iran-trump-aides-say?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/4/traders-mint-money-on-betting-platforms-on-us-israel-strike-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1TUi1od2ZDcDNHZHdmaTNhbEREZjV3OTNCZjBPdjluQXYxYWplQ1ZlaTVid1MxRzJZMDMzSjJQSXdlbkkzeTJDWnZ3SUNFREVLX2c3eFI2TG5zUQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/4/how-is-the-war-playing-out-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/trump-us-forces-doing-very-well-on-the-war-front-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-may-be-hiked-to-15-this-week-scott-bessent/articleshow/129055667.cms
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305075648wwf
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050754285ab
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99jjr7d40yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305072036cok
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-rates-us-war-effort-15-out-of-10-vows-to-push-on-against-iran/articleshow/129051534.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305065435LlX
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
进展要点
- 石油价格因供应中断风险飙升，布伦特原油突破84美元/桶，涨幅超15%。
- 全球股市下跌，欧洲股指如德国DAX跌幅超3%，美国道指下跌超900点。
- 避险资产走强：黄金需求上升，美元汇率因避险情绪而升值。
- 天然气价格因冲突上涨30%，欧洲TTF期货超过700美元/1000立方米。
- 汇率市场波动，美元兑其他货币可能进一步走强，影响新兴市场货币。
- 超级油轮租赁费率创纪录，中东到中国达40万美元，反映运输成本激增。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力和股市下跌
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 风险资产抛售
特朗普贸易威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 市场波动和避险资产流入
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/4/iran-live-news-us-embassy-in-dubai-hit-israel-pounds-tehran-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/idf-destroys-secret-nuclear-over-211910871.html
- [3] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4097728-us-military-says-over-1700-targets-hit-in-iran.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633639-energy-markets-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/2f0d9742944b4a138d93fb39776d074f/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9HcW90OWVjOXIxeDRKc3N4MGNfRkFMRjUtT0VhT2oyeHlsUm91OUZUYWR3TmRudjBGYWJYVWdKRGh2TTNLQnhuaXlEYnpBRE1kVU13Q0htb0lBTXdYMDVYUzBYR1p1azJhUjZrOU5R0gFzQVVfeXFMUDBRTDhHXzNvVFp3dTBfU1ByZEVySElzenoxU0M3QUtzcmY2R2ZYRldEVm9JZnNMQTFJTmdNUXQ4akxfYzBHWTZ2SkJvYm1XY0JHZGp5ZW01aXhRbFJvX2NxeVFaWmZqRVNOLVZHeTRpU2hPdw?oc=5
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBHbDdHZ2IyRkpZbjc0WDF1WG9SMkxNWTJNdTlhUmlZNVdHQU5PaVFXT0Q2MngyemZNblpqckhKcG9Pa0hmQkJqMWhPOWZpMjBtMmhuWmNUZFFIdnh1Q2dDQUNyOFZ1M1VxRlVaV3VaZjVZWmlJT25Wdw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/53a69df4e0d74a8eb47ff5e82c504e40/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNb0J1ejdjZU56ZlQ4Z2ZkLVNJZWdyendSUFZFNGJxSTlVQnlQRno5RzV3RjFMWUw5anpjajNFVUkwUDVvVEZRb1F4ME1lZndpa2JuMUdWc2RMV19LRGFabWJ4bmEwdkNxZFhsNXB2UEtuRWY2czVRS3MtMjhNc09qcjZsWkhna0tCWDFORkxfNXA0bVRMZEg5SXkydHFXWDE1M2E3MGlBdmU?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxObDJhQXpCWDFZY2ExMWlvM20td3I1a1pJRFdkQ2Joakh3SkpmWTNMWDdjMVVNbnpwd0lrcHRVeG5IMmNGRDRtMFhnYUVPMGplT3BHRzRHVVdWemUwd2p1R2JwZkE4ZjUzZzBrbXZONkMzeWk5R0lLZjhTbEc4aEVBWktqSQ?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOTTR3OWFWWFo1ZTZLRUV4R2NzUXVRV3Z6UUFGNWtJQ1hJU1JDMEN0Sml1ZnZaUXlsYTQ2TGx1NlBoTUxlWmFnQWkxcXNvYVJFX0IzSEpWXzFZUUQwaVllN1ZDcGRGeTd2czFhMkRucW9ZeG5aVWdUOU8xVGM1X2xHSzNOaExta0dpaGJlbW5vR3RRdERmMHNoeDl3OVdEZGdxT1E5N3hpcHNCY0hH?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNaFM1X0dITWZ2b2lSOEluZjVabjJnOVA0dmM3VmNWbTFpbFp4TnFOQ1huOWxSeWNZMHlWaTBYakFwX0psTkJJVEo2M3M4X3NudmJQLUdKTFhLa1ZUd2wzOXE5Zl80NDlBX2dGcHVTR1NCOGdlckQ0R0xFQmxZZS11NQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOWk44LTU4dDlfaDJqb2hvSzJ0X2JHWlAyaVEzX1FRYVZBSVV2QWUtNU1LaUpvUkR3V0pJQjJNTHlVSkxzM0Rad3ZLemU1eDlTUlJlRmxkeVhGNDFzU0R3NkZnTzdVal9tc01fLXRrSEktd1dWUnVtQ0o1MjB2dzF0ZlpTcmNyX1hrS2dvUHdleWtBRGxkOV82dFlISUZkN1ctOEZIdk5jeUdIaExrTmQxRlJTUWVLaGRT?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-strikes-saudi-infrastructure-pushing-211940999.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/unpacking-us-justification-for-iran-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQWk9Nb1JVRVF4OGJyQXZDNjBjOXl0dTNXMDM1ZDE1RF9LSVJoTjFyZk03UUZTSFd6eFhodlZUNUgzMzJRbDh4TUpjdkVvWGpBZmhDZy0tRTRYUzdLdlc3UzRHd25CQUZNbXhKWnc0Sm5XQ283QXZCUi0yQk5STW1yenBtT3ZpM2w2aV8zWUhRWkpJWF9xU0w4M2RpYTFMMEJrYWNR?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxOMzQ1dXdtQ1lEOWZzclZuVU4tSERVU21JcnFxRFhVUF9uMWpnd1A3dTJWanE4SGJpRkp2QzhFdVlweV9DNEJkeEdLdl9UUGxCVS1HMUFjSDdjQWNYdEdTbzJCand2NFRVSjZxUkNLSU02bUpCQnR2ajVWcXA2a251ZEhTS3ZIejB0b3VtYnBjeG16T3VwVkdUcVZGMlRnRlEwYzlnVE1xelYzM2hTOXpFc2dNbGdudGxPX1czZm5TOG5BZVJrbzllemJqLVo?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBSN3NFbjZjS0ZpRm1qUnBKbGl6Yjh1Q29YYWZ1ODQyYVNnX2NydVpWODZkTHBRM08yQnZKZFZ0bHo0Q2dYQ2NERkJrdVlnZFl1Q2tmZVVaZGM1c2hGckp4LWxlLWU5S094LXc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zg54g5vvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQWm1TOGdTSmpTb3FHRzJjeGNZTDR0Y2pNaTVCeVNnbG9GRS1SRy1mb19IcFNuWE9hR1hXSkc2N2dvZU1Pd29Pdi1nWXZTQm1hME5aMkp2ZFNXWDJmbHRUMHhmNVZuN0FaSjV3Sk1mRTU0cXpOM18xWW1PXzFYS0hMRUFoakM1ckZIMVM0cTRlbXJPMUk1M1lHRThiQjhUYl9HZ3VqTE93dU0wdw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/travellers-stranded-airlines-under-pressure-as-iran-war-escalates?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/3/what-are-the-implications-of-irans-strikes-on-gulf-arab-states?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/633653-iran-minab-schoolgirls-funeral/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5lz0vgy52o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE9ZNnlqYV9mM1ZRZnc0MFlGRXZvVzdJZkVKMHZHN2tqeE40dXItRHBqZTBBMHJVVFpUT1JMekRUY21DVm5qZjc3Y3BFQ0Mwd05SZkI2OFhUa1hhdTBSMFZj?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/worst-case-scenario-trump-weighs-replacing-khamenei-as-leader-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPSTNiY2docGxMcHdCNjhHZjBJbWRTUmJDU1ZYR0tHVFdMc095a2VMSzBLaUxIa0hmdWFfM1NtaDgzcmlrUWE2QWFFSGNPelY1dWZET21NdWZlVENtU2VVVXZNdks0Rm91SU5FMVBDTUN0UGpxMXpjQkU1MUEteEpkZEFkdVVvbllmYlJPSC12WlQ?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/us-will-provide-insurance-for-ships-in-gulf-amid-iranian-attacks-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-girls-staff-killed-in-us-israel-strike-on-minab-school?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPenNLZHlGTHVkdFBkR3BNYmRZcWtDdTdscGt2aklhN1AzbzM5OUFhV0ktRE54RjVTMF9vWFhZWmpJb1VOOU81X1NvbGwtWXE4cnN4NEtxWUMyczJlWTFNZjNtWmowMDRYWXpXRzNhak1hTzhxVTBEcC1lQ3NOSlp0dDE4RjRkWmtkeEZfRmgwSTJEemdBanfSAZsBQVVfeXFMT2tmeGx3eHp1cnVGRGdvMkdNOTRMRkZqWjlLa1J3N24xZVFuenAzSjd3NGxFT3BjbklJRnc5cjhJa0oyVkhLbWRfako0QlY3Y3lXLUlOZU8yeWdjSDdIeXI1N1Z1RXVxTnVPeVFnQXlmRmotSHVJOURXeEFJOWRYOUx0MVA3aTE2MXcxS2h6NURjaV9fUlgtOXRGc0k?oc=5
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
进展要点
- 油价：布伦特原油上涨6.7%至77.74美元/桶，西德克萨斯中质原油上涨6.3%至71.23美元/桶
- 黄金：现货黄金上涨0.4%至5,297.31美元/盎司，避险需求推动价格走强
- 美元：美元指数上涨1%至98.62，美元对主要货币走强，作为避险货币受追捧
- 美股：道琼斯指数下跌0.15%，纳斯达克上涨0.36%，标普500上涨0.04%，市场分化
- 国防股：诺斯罗普·格鲁曼上涨6.02%，RTX上涨4.71%，洛克希德·马丁上涨3.37%
- 能源股：埃克森美孚上涨1.13%，雪佛龙上涨1.52%，油气股整体走强
- 旅游股：联合航空下跌2.91%，达美航空下跌2.21%，因油价上涨担忧
- 天然气：欧洲天然气期货飙升40%至44.51欧元/兆瓦时，供应中断风险高
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力增加和避险情绪上升
伊朗反击和美国攻击 / 军事不确定性扩大 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
OPEC+增产 / 石油供给增加 / 油价下行潜在压力 / 通胀预期缓和和市场稳定
油价上涨 / 全球能源成本上升 / 影响经济增长和企业盈利 / 股市波动加剧
来源
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083504hC0
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/new-wave-of-heavy-israeli-strikes-hit-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303074950oQe
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030738314Rj
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303065730vHK
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/633541-iran-attacks-us-bases/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-man-who-wanted-to-destroy-israel/a-76169184?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/us-israeli-strikes-hit-housing-hospitals-and-more-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303050236bRV
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxOZy1DTC1Kb2dRcFNJR19MUWpWY3JIajBQTFJoQ3JYdWYtZnNEMGZSYWRVbzZHZ2RSYjg5bEJ2bkpTZHRzQzFlLUhfeHZmZEZRWkJEY29PNjRHYTFhbF9jblpfT2d5Y2RMWmtUaHNnLWlhbk5yRk8tXzlLLUVDQmVZS1pROExLVXRMeTNhTmR6SGdWQXdRS1FPaXVTR3VUOThzd3FPeUt6VE1PQWxCRi1Qa2RrSUR4YVJjcm9Va1FTVXJaZVNPMWJWbU8xM3ZSZw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPRmJEdk53OEpnU01zWnRIak5FX2QzbjNMVGQwWm5DYUVhbmNCZzJiNXRiU2Q0c3FGU2RjWllLVUZmMF9HaWZUbmd4SzJTRUU5eU1GWWdLN0g0cUEyVVBpdGRYZ05NS3RQZU5Zdm5TUGRreFpNSUNBX1kyLTFoSnVUN3NCSUM1OFpJUTE2X3o4cDE0emk3TEMw?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPSjBuZWZ3MVFPbDJUc3YwOF9kNTJWSzYzS19ZYl9RdDUwTmFRV2E3RzJuUDVyck54VzZVX1Z4NUdhZzFHSlVVVE5XMFZFYWRwOGRFMjgxcnJDekZrNG0xdmIzMkVlbk9ldzJsTXktNTRFTXRENWlOYXNTa3RBempwRmt0eDdNVUdvekFaNTB5MFVzMTluSV9aWWtrYUVmQkFyNEZwenJKWmZ2ZFE?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNU2NHaE5XeDg3VUE2STYwLW9pcDhQMDIyblFwcDVwMGlaWUJGQzJkY1NyRTAtVS05QmpVakFfMWNSRzlJd1poLWZsSkhHMmJRa3Q5Wlh3UF94WDJaSkVLSmlILUlaZXIxa0pUMjRMbG1yM2NldVlwZURDMHpvZmFCLTV6VWlGclJzYXZR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083926kBk
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303084656Em8
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNeTZ6OFhCUVdnVUxtci1wbHNTSXZ0azNyTkRRbjN1aG5WNW5sQlVPSjhNbUZncFc3VHh5RlEzUk1FbjRGZTF5dHJRbVJSVThabWNiLWVIcmRhZUNMMjEwTW55UXVKdldlVVAyX0Z6Tl9MeVJVOEJWZ1NkbVdFOExkejJHbU93d2FhOVZRYVRLM2U1SWJRSEtqUEdabWRYV3Yxc3lrbDd6SF9NZDVWeW1lWmVZQTNONDlFRUNYa2FJSU5nV25v?oc=5
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083641gZ7
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579735.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579730.shtml
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579729.shtml
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030756415hf
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603030719278Kr
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303071916e5r
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579727.shtml
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSDVsRnRWUEg4c2hacEhwbkxLUEhyOEVfY05xRjVEajh4ZWFfOVVXb2Y0dEZsNGN1aXBMdjJIYTVwV2M0YmNnd253RDdBSTkyNW5QYTFJeHNMU1dwcUJSQW9memxMZXJuRHVOckt3U1p3WnJtVmx5NE52RWlpQ0M4VmdOODJOTkRNWGN2a0U1b0ZTTWpONDhHMnczZTVDT0I4S0ZFdjBNUmlwZm1CTUFqNFdxTQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/00df4d951aa739aa.html
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/6b03954374bb387d.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNaHRKQ2JvNjhkZG5YUl9SWjhGR2JSekg0ZmkwalBqUHpfcFU4X3Rkc2d5Nl9nOFR2UmJjeVUwZ3pIU196SEFqU285WXpHVHU1TDU4VnBXYzVlamhRRzJMREsxWXRybDlVTi12TTRXVDdzaENfVGdqd1N6T2ZTYkxyWE5adjBabkY3aE5ScTVjbG5vZw?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/rubio-suggests-timing-of-us-strikes-on-iran-was-influenced-by-israeli-plans?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
进展要点
- 石油价格预计因供应中断而飙升。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，价格看涨。
- 美元可能因避险需求走强。
- 股市尤其是全球股指面临下行压力。
- 中东地区货币如伊朗里亚尔可能贬值。
- 美国国债作为安全资产可能受益。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘政治不确定性 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨
冲突外溢至其他地区 / 全球供应链中断 / 股市下跌
美国军事行动持续 / 财政支出增加 / 美元走强
来源
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260302085315eAe
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNa3BOSmhLc1liQ1h5MWdwSlI3VkxvYlNtOThEeTFnRGFzR2tXeU9TZzV3WDNpVjEwWVRvT05SMVBFdjV2Ul9FdU9lR0pfeWV2dlZydUw3bWEtX0VVRlpVSjZ6cERqTkVYWDZfbUczaXkzRkgtOEhKREpFNW5TeUU4U05ONi10ZUdKUVJSVW5KWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/4db67bdab48842a693808cc24803f9b3/c.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633393-khamenei-killing-america-and-israel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579069.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579053.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579071.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQNFBVczFkN1FqZGZQWW82VEdNemVCS0VpSm9OLUxRVGNzZnAtUDJ4TnR5Wi04M2JhRmExT2gwV3Z6TDhiLWx6ZjhjSkhFVGVFdlRNZy1qM09HUVVvdEwtNTRVM054UTFCaWtlTjR3VmtQRy1rMVl3bjJROXVycnNfOTdXXzhBYTBIMzcxSXRWdkZEa3dBRG5NbGxn?oc=5
- [9] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260301-premiers-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-tu%C3%A9s-lors-de-l-op%C3%A9ration-contre-l-iran
- [10] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-s-revolutionary-guards-pledge-revenge
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-hits-tehran-as-iran-s-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-is-killed
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260301-tensions-rise-over-strait-of-hormuz-as-tankers-caught-in-crossfire
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-targets-us-bases-in-retaliation
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260301-iran-s-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-has-died-what-are-the-reactions-on-the-gorund
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/us-confirms-american-troops-killed-wounded-in-iran-clashes/a-76177887?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579029.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579027.shtml
- [18] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c363zkp1pgxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/633367-jihad-is-coming-khameneis-death/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/video/latest-us-israel-attack-iran-130647282
- [21] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/israel-strikes-tehran-as-irans-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-was-killed/article70691620.ece
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/8fdd8eced80a4f8ebcff41ababa9766e/c.html
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/ali-chamenei-der-mann-der-israel-zerstören-wollte/a-76168647?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.dw.com/de/trump-verkündet-großen-kampfeinsatz-gegen-den-iran/a-76160970?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQN1lCSVpTTkdMUnJsbXdkR1NaQVg5Y0xWRWVCWEdCRjJpZlpabEs1RDdvYmNPU2w3OXl4aHlscGF1dVYwcjJCTi1FVnZybjBMQzNyc3JUeEZISV9WeWNQckU4Qjh4ZGVpTVNueGhGNTJRVlM2YklKQjl3QjVtNWtNZ3FSSDBCX1BrZUd3ZFdGX2lGaGNNQmFYNDJkdDdqQnFkc1BEQg?oc=5
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/khamenei-s-death-never-thought-i-would-see-this-day/a-76175776?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633168-world-reacts-us-israel-attack-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633328-iran-airspace-chaos-stranded/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/more-strikes-aimed-iran-us-035109978.html
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWlRWdS1HSGlJd3dKSkZBbWxwRGtTV1hIaDNydm1mbTlhc2VFN1dqTkRxdVRmdWZjbDZjQVlVZnFvZjVKUThJRHQwMDFja3B6RTJINlNCSGkwTEs4cFpycmhOREVmS2dkT0ctYWxCU2lwV004alg2UlZxcW5WMFFYS1NSR0hibzJEUjZrSjlaUmJ2M3dacFF3ZXFR?oc=5
2026-03-01
2026-03-01
进展要点
- 原油价格飙升至每桶150美元风险，关注布伦特和WTI期货走势。
- 黄金突破关键阻力位，作为避险资产持续吸引资金流入。
- 美元兑日元、瑞郎等避险货币走强，但兑商品货币可能波动。
- 全球股市下跌，能源股除外，科技和周期股承压。
- 债券收益率因避险需求下降，但通胀预期推高长期利率。
- 外汇市场波动加剧，中东货币如伊朗里亚尔面临贬值压力。
- 大宗商品如铝、铜可能受供应链中断影响，价格上行。
关联路径
美以打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀和增长放缓
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市和风险资产下跌
伊朗政权真空 / 区域不稳定 / 石油供应中断 / 能源市场动荡
地缘政治风险 / 央行政策不确定性 / 利率和汇率波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-01/10578570.shtml
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085431RoG
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085325DhA
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-leadership-khamenei-shamkhani-pakpour-nasirzadeh.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080040SGr
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301082402NCK
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080138VzD
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003155315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-after-us-israel-strike-iran-issues-unforgettable-lesson-10-things-to-know/articleshow/128900888.cms
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-in-us-strike-who-are-his-potential-successors/articleshow/128898535.cms
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-iran-strike-heavy-and-pinpoint-bombing-will-continue-what-trump-wrote-as-he-announced-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128898991.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-leader-who-shaped-irans-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003154315
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633223-they-didnt-catch-iran-off-guard/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003153315
- [16] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003152315
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003151315
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-attack-iran-plume-of-smoke-rises-near-burj-khalifa-as-iran-missile-attack-hits-dubai-video-captures-chaos/articleshow/128894990.cms
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260301040750Sgd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603010443058D5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxQeXIwVVpWbERtSnFRX3BjR042VUl2SmpmdnE0VzBHWU93UkxNMzF2dUFRdGVwcl90NHBXYllORG1OcGhGX1ZEZHltUERPWjVnZHpQX3ppLXJUcmFPS0dBVHFqdmV3WkhBdWVHeE1oZU90cUt3UHZCX2pCQkdPWkloSS1Fc3BGUnJOQ3NyWEpmcVNCTUhyUnJoS1NuT01qM2hQTnYzRXA1M1F1RUp2enBuaDg1SUJwYkFPME1XdkRvTndQYmRkMC1sWm9GOA?oc=5
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260228-en-direct-isra%C3%ABl-lance-une-attaque-pr%C3%A9ventive-contre-l-iran-d%C3%A9cr%C3%A8te-l-%C3%A9tat-d-urgence
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260228-live-israel-says-launched-preventive-strike-against-iran-declares-state-of-emergency
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNREtzcnNZRS1jT3FXeExGamY5ck55emtiMjBYVXpkbjQyT0FzZDRQcHFIMEVEbDFMRHUtMEs4MlZYUmdzZVUwZmJkQ3AxbGdGU1R4RXdLQ3hqX2ZlV0piZjJ0VFI0MFlkTzdvWjF3WnQxMGVsaVdQS2pfTlZzZmpuU1RvYlF5NS04NGxnb05ReXAySl9Zd1E?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOYkVZQzRBSzJXaEM1WmhhRmN3LTRqUW93dzZ4bTA0WWRqNTlTZ2JsX0dQQUlOemN1MXZNSFd4bmdUOTlON3p3TVdOcXZ6MHpPRGhSRHFYSGZfX0FqNjVtTkxhLVMzN3JqWEJyY2pMb1VrLXJndldJOVpzXzhQZzF6UE1fY3NidDBaNk40SGhYNWRCaG9TMkhmZkVrU2RqXzBnd3FCQU9Icw?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-strike-iran-what-happened?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633237-has-wwiii-just-started-whats-happening-iran-israel-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g0pnnj8xyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-en-iran-aucun-moyen-de-cette-ampleur-n-avait-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-d%C3%A9ploy%C3%A9-depuis-2003
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-isra%C3%ABl-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-frappent-l-iran-comment-l-op%C3%A9ration-s-est-elle-d%C3%A9roul%C3%A9e
2026-02-28
2026-02-28
进展要点
- 石油：中东紧张支撑油价，布伦特原油或测试高位
- 黄金：避险需求推高金价，突破关键阻力位
- 美元：避险货币受益，美元指数走强
- 欧元：受德国通胀下降利好降息，但地缘风险压制，EUR承压
- 股市：全球避险情绪压制股指，科技股受AI政策影响波动
- 债券：欧债收益率因降息预期下降，美债避险需求上升
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力上升
欧洲核威慑 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产上涨
俄乌管道中断 / 能源安全担忧 / EUR和欧股承压
德国通胀下降 / 欧央行降息预期 / EUR下跌、德债上涨
来源
Times of India / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / The New York Times / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dont-want-to-but-sometimes-you-have-to-trump-again-warns-iran-of-possible-military-action/articleshow/128861540.cms
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/633137-nordic-nations-host-nukes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-allows-staff-to-leave-israel-as-trump-attack-on-iran-looms/a-76157922?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/inflation-rate-faellt-ueberraschend-unter-zwei-prozent-marke-a-91486dcb-02d3-42ac-b7c4-cf9b68bbdbfd
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/633125-iran-us-talks-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/27/aje-onl-irn_genevatalks2026_av_v2-260226?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096330-war-update-57-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-heaviest-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/633113-hungary-slovakia-druzhba-commission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/middleeast/us-embassy-jerusalem-authorized-departure.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096266-at-ramstein-ukraine-unveils-its-war-plan-secures-historic-partner-support-dm-fedorov.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPWmZ0NnBLOEhNMzdJUUlXWnhFdWRpLW10eG5OWHZCT2FHM0U2dzUyVTg2enNtM0Roblg4VHdmU0s1WUUwLUNxN3hFOGdIUEdnX0t5cFNXakdIM0s4dzNYdTRlRk1OemQ4bENPSGdvOWRfbnd6aG1qV2dxZVNZdWdFQkI5ajl5WW00ZmZxY1hab2o?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/vp-vance-says-us-sees-222809233.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/hong-kong-linked-company-decries-search-of-panama-canal-port-offices?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633148-pentagon-anthropic-national-security-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/633147-americans-warning-iran-rubio/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kriegserklaerung-von-pakistan-das-sind-die-hintergruende-zum-konflikt-zwischen-pakistan-und-den-taliban-a-4098daa5-213b-4876-87a9-e33eb8edd2bf
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/633141-iraq-militia-us-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/633144-ukraine-shut-oil-pipeline-fico/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iaea-eyes-isfahan-nuclear-complex-as-it-urges-iran-to-allow?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/ukraine-claws-back-southern-territory-as-russias-war-enters-fifth-year?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633145-imf-approve-loan-kiev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-auswaertiges-amt-raet-dringend-von-reisen-ab-a-780a281e-d0b8-4b9f-9134-52e69a85d120
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQRC1jOE50RkxUYkw1YzVFamg3M0xOQjk4LVMzNmxJVTZMVEhqUGJMakVDbjBBaUJSVHVsUFc2V2EtVEtiMXlhd0VfNmNSY1pUV1BQbzd3VTRCTUZWOHdpdEdKOFNRbHp1ZkJTZGFrQ0JJWU9iUjVqSEdMQVVzaEJvS0I1b0RlZV9kQ0RKRmVsSFkyYjlsT3dNT2lFcVBkQjZkVlpjRFBVTlNiNFUxX3lzSA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/633139-us-wants-war-iran-ritter/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/marco-rubio-plans-israel-trip-as-trump-says-hes-not-happy-with-iran-talk?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633132-pakistan-and-afghanistan-are-at-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNNEJmUVJrMUpHUHZicWN1NlJHTmlYa3BfdXI4UTdDS3dhbDlGbFdzQzQ1MGxUYVU2ckxsT3FnSEl2eXdDRlozODAxZzgtMXJuUmItMVF5QThVcFllZ2dCa0xWLTVXemhfeHFKem11Rk5kV1RpUnE1WnNHVDBkMHZKTlJLSkIxWW15ZVgxOG5PUHplUGkyZGE4aGpocWFTYWo0S1VJYw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096376-russian-army-attacks-three-districts-of-dnipropetrovsk-region-over-three-dozen-times-causing-damage.html
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/27/residents-describe-panic-as-pakistan-attacks-afghanistan-in-open?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iran-says-us-must-drop-excessive-demands-in-nuclear-negotiations?traffic_source=rss
2026-02-27
2026-02-27
进展要点
- 黄金：中东和俄乌避险需求推高价格，关注美伊谈判进展。
- 石油：地缘政治风险支撑油价，但谈判进展可能带来下行压力。
- 美元：避险情绪和利率预期调整，美元指数可能波动。
- 股票：英伟达业绩强劲但触发抛售潮，AI和半导体板块承压，全球股市震荡。
- 日元：日本央行加息暗示推动日元升值，影响套利交易。
- 欧元：欧盟援助计划增加财政压力，欧元兑美元汇率面临下行风险。
- 利率：美国抵押贷款利率下降，全球债券市场关注央行政策动向。
- 人民币：中美贸易紧张可能影响汇率，监控中国政策回应。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌核威胁 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金上涨、股市下跌
中美贸易摩擦 / 供应链中断 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
日本央行加息暗示 / 日元升值 / 全球利率预期调整 / 套利交易逆转
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / German Foreign Office Press Releases / KBS World News / German Federal Foreign Office
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577302.shtml
- [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-met-us-trade-104937996.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/633096-ukraine-nukes-france-uk-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202602270343599DY
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/boj-board-member-hints-at-rate-hikes-to-keep-ahead-of-inflation-risk
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/2757498-2757498
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227013818iIw
- [8] http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=199741
- [9] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2758258-2758258
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095967-war-update-120-combat-clashes-since-dawn-afu-have-success-in-northern-slobozhanshchyna-and-kursk-sectors.html
- [11] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/e4f19a798abdc080.html
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/633078-iran-and-united-states-met-geneva/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/02/24/declaration-des-dirigeants-du-g7-sur-la-guerre-en-ukraine
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/how-trumps-2026-iran-war-script-echoes-and-twists-the-2003-iraq-playbook?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577282.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577278.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577293.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577292.shtml
- [19] https://news.sky.com/story/significant-progress-in-us-iran-talks-but-no-deal-as-negotiations-to-resume-next-week-13512695
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-fall-below-6-for-first-time-in-over-3-years-110032209.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633101-iran-us-geneva-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-good-progress-in-us-talks-next-round-within-a-week/article70681431.ece
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227065659cma
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghanistan-launches-military-strikes-on-pakistan-updates/article70681434.ece
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/26/iranian-foreign-minister-says-us-iran-moving-closer-to-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633087-thomas-penn-franco-british-nuke-plot-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633076-us-iran-nuclear-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/us-and-iran-meet-in-geneva-for-talks-amid-military-posturing/a-76128226?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4096039-next-round-of-peace-talks-to-be-held-in-abu-dhabi-in-early-march-zelensky.html
2026-02-26
2026-02-26
进展要点
- 石油价格因中东供应风险上涨，关注WTI和Brent原油走势。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，美元走强可能压制其他货币。
- 日元因BOJ人事任命贬值，兑美元触及约两周低点。
- 全球股市因避险情绪承压，科技股受贸易紧张影响。
- 美国国债收益率可能因避险需求下降，但通胀预期支撑。
- 欧元受德中贸易警告和俄乌冲突影响，汇率波动增加。
- 人民币面临贸易不确定性压力，关注中国政策反应。
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
美国关税 / 全球贸易收缩 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
BOJ宽松预期 / 日元贬值 / 亚洲货币压力 / 区域汇率波动
来源
RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/633038-us-f22-israel-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-nuclear-talks-deal-or-military-strike/a-76120548?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010600315
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010651315
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5VWWp2VmJHb0liMGVrZE5KMVFSTGdtcnZmWFJGc3BYNllRZTBuQmIzMHRteEZhaWJRem8xeTdPWTJlbXAzMzhtUkVOUEt2c0VlZGNaaHBtTU05UDhlXzRIQ2NBS3NpUkZkdHlUTVAwQmo?oc=5
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/japan-picks-reflationists-for-boj-board-echoing-takaichi-s-policy-view
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/us-issues-new-sanctions-as-it-dials-up-pressure-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-trump-lays-out-case-for-possible-attack-on-iran-in-state-of-the-union-address
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge821xwyz8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/7e819bdee446797a.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260225214248P2A
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/2/25/four-years-into-the-ukraine-war-moscow-sees-vindication-not-failure?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/bJ0L6pzhsU8kjJi3lMFRi
- [14] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/nvidia-reports-73-revenue-jump-but-warns-on-china-uncertainties
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kuba-grenztruppen-greifen-us-schnellboot-an-vier-tote-a-8d7b55c4-a9e2-4b05-96f5-ad2e4b8dbbd4
- [17] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095617-ukraine-insists-at-un-on-ceasefire-as-basis-for-peace-talks-betsa-says.html
- [18] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-roughly-2-week-low-against-us-dollar-on-boj-board-picks
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/business/trump-tariffs-refunds-lawsuits.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260225-discours-sur-l-%C3%A9tat-de-l-union-de-d-trump-l-am%C3%A9rique-d-abord-%C3%A0-quel-prix
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cant-let-craziest-regime-to-have-nuclear-weapons-jd-vance-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-geneva/articleshow/128791664.cms
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095557-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-russian-s400-triumf-pantsir-and-grad-systems-in-occupied-territories.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-iran-us-talks-set-to-resume-in-geneva-as-trump-ups-pressure
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/world/asia/china-germany-merz-visit-xi.html
- [25] https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/Jim-Chalmers-2022/media-releases/Inflation-steady-in-January
- [26] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/O5M0QLVwbVE7A1uwQIJj-
- [27] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2757258-2757258
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633024-iran-nuclear-trump-accusations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxQWWhpcEY4Rk1HMUE1S2dFd1pGcVRZQ1hibjl1WXBqamtRaXhyam1XbVE0Y1RoTkhWSFYwQVpPbFFJM21NTXZPdFd4cWtTMmlPdjE2V3ktd3dLXzIzNnlQMFpCNnVQVlZFUndQQnVGTWd5Tk5rWFkzME5IMVdaVnU1RmxmTHI?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSFc3VlA2cG5id0ZOQ0dxemtYc2VhSkJtZVg4ZzZhaU5XMzVTOVRxMnRNQ01TNTgzTG84UjdQZHJLaW9lQi1uNjY2ckN5NGpvNmthWjZ1ZG5BWklKRl9hVTBsSWFaY1M5aW9xblZXdVNKTGI4OUxoR3VKcjlmeGRwVlh4QlhEZDl3UnByVUFEc044dnI2cGVBTUZyM2lhYjFWa0ZMWVBaRmgtZU96VUh0Tkcxdw?oc=5
2026-02-25
2026-02-25
进展要点
- 石油价格受中东紧张支撑，布伦特原油关注美伊谈判结果。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，地缘风险推高金价。
- 美元可能因避险需求走强，但贸易政策不确定性限制涨幅。
- 全球股市面临地缘政治风险压力，科技股受中国政策影响。
- 日元受区域紧张和日本通胀放缓双重影响，波动加剧。
- 欧洲股票受俄乌战争和能源成本拖累，表现承压。
- 美国国债利率受美联储中性立场和避险需求影响，可能下行。
- 人民币关注中美贸易紧张和区域风险，走势分化。
关联路径
美伊紧张升级 / 中东供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌战争持续 / 能源和粮食供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
美国关税政策波动 / 贸易不确定性 / 全球增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
涉台紧张 / 区域风险升级 / 避险情绪 / 日元和黄金需求增加
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Fed / State Duma of Russia - News / German Federal Government News / ANTARA News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576199.shtml
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576183.shtml
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/2/24/state-of-the-union-live-trump-to-address-nation-amid-tariff-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQR0dENGtNRnNpRjFmX0UzLW5YbW1pRE5sdjN1S3VpbkhfcC1FV2p3V3dtZlN1cGk4UVN6R05ockNfT3QyVGZtNHd5cV9wZnBVRDBqbDlBS1FXdV80Y0J3dmpfWVNPdHF4eVRoLTRLQWNnX2RvMVJEdjN2NEpLa3RLR25iM1VrS1dWb0w5OXBfcnRkdllJcHp4NExoYTk0OXQybXdCQ1kzUGdjSlhL?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQbXAxc2wwZEZXQjdxSnVZZXNmVVdDSzc0NzdGYXFzNDEzS1lUQ19QaXJtZ3lSV3U0bDBYNWNPQV9ndFZWU1REaUJLVWZaMTFFajJBOG9wT2VMSUM2LTJ2a0FzakVwY19vSlAwQkptQTAwZGdzdzQ4Vms1OHoxVm16NHJfa2FnaEtRay1FYlVJcGRDcnh3blZjdDJ4OV9WLXQ0WWRHVVMzX2V2bE5jMVJDYnZETQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNb2VFeXBiRnh2UFlkampWRER5cThwZHZUQ2Z3VGlRaW44Sk4wYVA4Tm1qX0d2VGJIN0lpTjY3Q2dYcVY3cHo3dnptN0JyWE9zRmtlWFZUXzZPZlRQMEF5dmhwZ2VBQmdiZDQ4T082RDVCaDVWSmNsVktrUGoySWVMSTNnNWV3WVZOVXZYWTFhODZnMGxBQ3pDcW5IMW9FaWoxOGRCYzFXRFc5UFHSAbABQVVfeXFMTmxDb21QY2d6LUQyc3lCYXRXaWNOeklZUV9LVHNJazJvZVFpWTN4WWRtd19XYXZKUmNzUkVxbVFZLVJqX3RieW5vNDZfYVpKNFBRU3RheUU4RlNPSXBuZU1GMVpwMWlXMmF5MEw2QXBDYXpMUUtqZ3l4bVplN09haWU1MW5pWnlzdjVjb2xyRmhVakRsQ3BRLURKWkE3ZHBESmpPb1VxMjZ
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNMVoxQzM1QW93QTNXV0R2RzB1ZWVyLWI0VW9FSHlKWk5FUTB0YkpNc2lCNTFHd01ZOTNQUEhpQXFQWXY3VHlzMUVudHdvdUFDNFZmWjFSdVp5bGUwejNUWXppTTJNbHN3SURJTzcwSVNrenpodjFpMUN0THlOQ0FhZkx0aHl2cTg0d21iS1lLLXYtcUJCaFExVlJVR1VLblQ4SlprdFI4c3dSLUZjSGFmUkx0OV90MUVGcnYwUWFYZmdTeUE5?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE9yc1hKTEpwV3h5SkMwTjVFUmY0Q3d3blo0TWNXMzAwajlnb1dMOUZCTGVaeGxkUUFCcm8wRUZrel80VWZOUlBudzJiS2NzTWZKMkJ2MQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260224a.htm
- [10] http://duma.gov.ru/en/news
- [11] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/co-chairs-statement-coalition-of-the-willing-call-24-february-2026-2408478
- [12] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5435854/china-desak-as-hentikan-tarif-global-sepihak-baru-10-persen
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/632991-kallas-russian-assets-theft/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095073-war-update-50-clashes-on-front-line-fighting-continues-in-four-sectors.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/de/usa-und-iran-säbelrasseln-im-atomstreit/a-76106219?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxPSGZtcGVJc3QwQS1xVW4wUHNCM2FYVzZLWTZ2Zk90elNHSVBYdXVuVGxMN0lOQTJWa2Fzc0tueFlSSHFlaFp3RjUtekFGUkpWLVlWNTZjTVpESlpRM3lOWFFTb0hxZExGOHhqVm9xY0NDQ0dkODFSVnUtV2hLbW5FbNIBhgFBVV95cUxQbFpwMmxVMk1TT3RJU3ZlYlRqd1g2cTVoT3p1YlVSczZ1aXVmaGZsY3NZNzN0M3FCbl9oNDFVa1kxTDlfOWk5X2pqUTZFbXcxclo5dVpWbGgtNHluR0ZxeUVwZ3V1NWstQ2lPY0JjRHNnb09mRFh1Vm1BYndDck9HYnZ4ZG1DUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1038942/trump-jajaki-skema-tarif-baru-usai-putusan-mahkamah-agung-as
- [18] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/04ff54e9ab07efbd.html
- [19] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/01180e362b158f46.html
- [20] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/d83e4d3bb21cdefc.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/632957-trump-iran-bad-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4094965-ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-logistics-command-posts-atacms-missiles-hit-targets.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576184.shtml
- [24] https://news.sky.com/story/european-leaders-came-together-in-solidarity-on-ukraine-war-fourth-anniversary-but-peace-seems-a-long-way-off-13511729
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576177.shtml
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095209-nordic-baltic-countries-to-provide-eur-125b-in-defense-support-to-ukraine-zelensky.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/russia-has-not-won-as-ukraine-war-enters-fifth-year-zelenskyy-says?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/tech-asia/china-aims-for-5-fold-increase-in-advanced-chip-output-to-meet-ai-demand
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/24/what-to-expect-from-trumps-state-of-the-union-address-2?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/02/23/42411
2026-02-24
2026-02-24
进展要点
- 股市：纽约三大指数下跌超1%，关注后续反弹或进一步抛售。
- 外汇：美元因避险需求可能走强，日元受美国审查关注。
- 原油：中东风险推高布伦特和WTI油价，关注供应中断。
- 黄金：避险资产需求增加，价格可能继续上涨。
- 债券：美国国债利率或波动，反映通胀和风险情绪。
- 科技股：AI恐慌导致IBM等股票暴跌，需监控行业动态。
- 欧元：欧盟内部分歧可能施压欧元汇率。
关联路径
关税威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 股市下跌和避险资产上涨
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀担忧
欧盟内部分歧 / 乌克兰援助延迟 / 欧元承压和能源紧张
AI技术恐慌 / 科技股抛售 / 市场情绪恶化
来源
ABC News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://abcnews.com/Business/stocks-tick-lower-after-trump-ratchets-tariffs/story?id=130407007
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260223-l-ue-suspend-la-mise-en-oeuvre-de-son-accord-commercial-avec-les-etats-unis
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260223-eu-hits-pause-on-trade-deal-with-us-trump-warns-countries-not-to-play-games-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224085849AAo
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224090135XIg
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084544ukS
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084052pwz
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-secretary-initiated-january-s-yen-dollar-rate-check-sources
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224073233Pgh
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260223-trump-menace-une-nouvelle-escalade
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-he-ll-raise-tariffs-to-15-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260223-why-the-threat-of-bombing-campaign-trump-s-iran-gambit
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224065241EuW
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260224/84374dde8fbd4226aa8c5a424796e21a/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224062855mu7
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/2/23/are-the-us-and-iran-moving-closer-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/23/trumps-new-tariff-threats-trigger-economic-uncertainty-trade-deals-stall?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/632935-hungary-ukraine-loan-veto/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.dw.com/de/zeitenwende-an-der-front-vier-jahre-krieg-in-der-ukraine/a-76058071?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/eu-sanctions-russian-officials-as-hungary-blocks-funds-to-ukraine?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224024633GH2
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rv212wwyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-unimaginable-force-iran-attacks-180831400.html
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/iran-banks-big-on-murky-oil-trustees-as-war-with-us-on-the-horizon?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260223-iran-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-sous-la-menace-d-une-frappe-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-hungary-blocks-eu-ukraine-loan-russia-sanctions-on-eve-of-war-anniversary
- [27] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5433530/ancam-kenakan-tarif-lebih-tinggi-trump-sebut-tak-perlu-restu-kongres
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-us-trade-deals-thrown-into-doubt-after-trump-s-new-tariffs
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-ukraine-europe-on-the-front-line
- [30] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-nervous-times-in-tehran-ahead-of-crunch-us-talks-and-strike-threat
2026-02-23
2026-02-23
进展要点
- 外汇：避险需求支撑美元指数（DXY）走强；欧元受区内政治分歧及增长担忧拖累；韩元、人民币等贸易导向货币面临压力。
- 大宗商品：原油（WTI/Brent）对中东风险溢价显著上升，任何冲突迹象将推动油价快速冲高。黄金作为终极避险资产吸引力增强。
- 权益市场：全球股市（尤其是出口导向的亚洲市场）面临贸易成本上升和增长放缓的双重打击，科技、汽车等跨境供应链敏感板块承压最重。
- 债券市场：避险买盘可能压降美债收益率，但潜在的“滞胀”风险（增长放缓+油价驱动通胀）将限制其下行空间，并加剧收益率曲线形态的不确定性。
关联路径
美国关税提高至15% / 全球贸易成本激增 & 供应链扰动 / 企业利润下调 & 经济增长预期恶化 / 全球股市（尤其出口国）& 周期类资产下跌。
美伊 / 俄乌地缘风险升级 / 石油供应中断风险溢价上升 & 避险情绪高涨 / 油价 & 黄金 & 美元同步上涨 / 风险资产（股票、公司债）遭抛售。
美国301条款调查启动 / 特定国家（如中国、巴西）及行业（如半导体、汽车）面临精准打击风险 / 相关国家货币、股市及行业ETF波动加剧。
欧盟对俄制裁内部分歧（匈牙利阻挠） / 削弱对乌支持效力 & 暴露欧盟政治裂痕 / 欧元汇率承压 & 欧洲资产风险溢价上升。
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times
2026-02-22
2026-02-22
进展要点
- 外汇：美元可能因避险需求走强，但关税不确定性可能施压贸易伙伴货币（如欧元、人民币）。
- 大宗商品：石油价格受中东和俄乌供应风险支撑，黄金作为避险资产需求增加。
- 股市：全球风险情绪恶化，贸易敏感板块（如科技、工业）面临下行压力。
- 债券：避险买盘可能推低美债收益率，但通胀担忧或限制跌幅。
- 关注亚洲市场反应，特别是出口导向型经济体的股票和货币表现。
- 能源股可能受益于油价上涨，但整体市场情绪偏向谨慎。
- 监控美联储政策信号，应对关税可能带来的通胀影响。
关联路径
全球关税上调 / 贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中东紧张加剧 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
政策不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流向安全资产
来源
Yonhap News TV / Xinhua World / China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Sky News / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top)
2026-02-21
2026-02-21
进展要点
- 美元：通胀超预期和新关税威胁可能支撑美元，但避险需求或推高。
- 黄金：地缘风险和贸易紧张加剧避险需求，金价可能上涨。
- 石油：中东紧张和供应风险支撑油价，关注美伊冲突进展。
- 股市：新关税和地缘风险施压全球股市，增长担忧主导。
- 欧元：欧盟内部分歧和对乌援助受阻可能削弱欧元。
- 美国国债：通胀数据可能推高收益率，但避险买盘或提供支撑。
- 人民币：中美贸易紧张可能影响汇率，关注关税实施反应。
关联路径
特朗普新全球关税 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长担忧 / 避险资产上涨
美伊军事紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应风险 / 油价和黄金上涨
通胀超预期 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 股市承压
欧盟对乌援助受阻 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
Nikkei Asia / RT News / ABC News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business)
2026-02-20
2026-02-20
进展要点
- 油价因中东紧张上涨，关注美国可能袭击伊朗的供应风险。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求上升，地缘风险推动价格走高。
- 美元兑外币走弱，受美联储政策不确定性和贸易逆差打压。
- 股市受风险情绪打压下跌，纽约三大股指全线收低。
- 利率市场关注美联储政策信号，强劲就业数据支持鹰派预期。
- 汇率波动增加，中东紧张可能推动美元和黄金同时上涨。
- 大宗商品价格受地缘政治影响，石油和黄金成为避险焦点。
- 美国国债收益率可能因避险需求和政策不确定性而波动。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 风险资产承压
俄乌会谈进展 / 地缘风险降低 / 风险资产反弹 / 避险需求下降
美联储政策不确定性 / 美元走弱 / 黄金和外汇市场波动
贸易逆差扩大 / 关税政策失效担忧 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
来源
Xinhua World / ABC News / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / UN News / Yahoo News - World / Sky News
2026-02-19
2026-02-19
进展要点
- 油价（WTI/布伦特）：隔夜大涨超4%（据新华网报道），需关注地缘冲突是否导致实际供应中断。
- 黄金：地缘风险双升级，短期避险需求明确，但需警惕美元同步走强的压制。
- 美元指数（DXY）：避险属性及美债收益率变化将共同影响其走势。
- 欧元（EUR/USD）：直面俄乌能源断供风险，若天然气价格联动上涨，欧元将承压。
- 美股（标普500/纳斯达克）：能源股领涨，但高利率预期和地缘不确定性将压制整体估值。
- 美债收益率：通胀担忧可能推高长端收益率，但避险情绪可能压制短端。
- 欧洲股市（尤其是德国DAX）：对能源价格敏感，面临下行压力。
- 中东欧货币（如匈牙利福林、波兰兹罗提）：能源危机风险下可能进一步走弱。
关联路径
中东 / 俄乌冲突升级 / 石油 / 天然气供应风险 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策预期转鹰 / 利率敏感型资产（成长股、债券）承压
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪 / 资金流向黄金、美元、美债 / 风险资产（新兴市场货币、欧股）承压
能源危机风险（欧洲） / EUR区增长与通胀前景恶化 / EUR贬值 / 美元被动走强
美联储政策信号（纪要） / 全球流动性预期调整 / 风险资产估值重估
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / RT News / Fed / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Xinhua Finance
2026-02-18
2026-02-18
进展要点
- 油价因中东供应风险可能上涨
- 黄金避险需求上升，但注意农历新年流动性波动
- 美元因避险情绪走强
- 股市因地缘风险承压，尤其是欧洲和新兴市场
- 人民币汇率受美中关系紧张影响
- 债券收益率可能因避险需求下降
- 大宗商品如石油和黄金价格波动加剧
关联路径
美伊谈判紧张 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策调整
俄乌战事升级 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市下跌
美中紧张关系 / 全球贸易风险 / 避险情绪上升 / 资产波动加剧
2026-02-15
2026-02-15
进展要点
- 石油 (Brent/WTI)：中东紧张是最大上行催化剂，任何冲突迹象都将推动油价测试高位。关键阻力位关注前高。
- 黄金：多重避险需求（中东、俄乌、核风险、货币贬值担忧）下的核心配置资产，上行空间打开。
- 美元：避险情绪及美联储相对偏鹰的立场可能提供支撑，但美国自身的地缘政策风险构成双向扰动。
- 股指期货 (US/Europe)：地缘政治溢价高企，对负面新闻敏感。科技股尤其需关注制裁相关供应链风险。
- 欧元/美元：受跨大关系紧张和欧洲增长前景担忧压制，但欧央行流动性操作提供短期缓冲。
- 国债 (UST/Bunds)：避险需求可能短暂提振，但地缘通胀风险与央行政策将限制涨幅，曲线陡峭化风险存在。
- 比特币/加密货币：与传统风险资产相关性需观察，可能成为部分资金的替代避险渠道。
- 农产品：黑海航运风险及气候因素可能继续支撑谷物价格。
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 原油供应预期收紧 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期重估 / 央行政策更谨慎 / 风险资产重定价
美欧战略分歧 / 全球政策碎片化 / 贸易与投资不确定性上升 / 增长预期下调 / 企业盈利承压 / 股市估值压缩
俄乌冲突持续 / 升级 / 欧洲能源安全担忧 + 国防开支大增 / 欧元区滞胀压力 / 欧央行政策困境 / EUR疲软 & 欧洲股市相对弱势
核军控失效 + 多地冲突 / 系统性风险溢价永久性上升 / 长期避险资产（黄金、部分国债）配置价值重估 / 风险资产长期估值中枢下移
2026-02-14
2026-02-14
进展要点
- 股市：美国CPI数据提振标普500、道指、纳斯达克，但中东紧张可能压制涨幅
- 外汇：美元可能因降息预期走弱，但避险需求或提供支撑；欧元受欧洲政治紧张影响
- 原油：中东紧张升级推高布伦特和WTI油价，关注供应中断风险
- 黄金：地缘风险和降息预期共同支撑金价，可能测试高位
- 债券：美国国债收益率可能因降息预期下行，欧洲债券受财政担忧影响
- 人民币：中国宽松政策可能支撑汇率，但中美关系进展需监视
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力
美国CPI降温 / 美联储降息预期 / 股市上涨 / 美元走弱
俄乌冲突 / 黑海航运风险 / 全球粮食和能源供应波动
欧洲政治紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
2026-02-13
2026-02-13
进展要点
- 黄金和白银价格暴跌，因美国金融危机信号削弱安全港需求。
- 石油价格受中东紧张支撑，但需求担忧和供应风险可能致波动加剧。
- 美元走势受避险需求和美联储政策预期影响，可能走强。
- 科技股遭抛售，AI担忧加剧纳斯达克等指数下跌。
- 国债利率需关注通胀数据和避险情绪变化。
- 欧元受欧洲政治和安全风险影响，可能承压。
- 日本汽车股受关税影响，利润损失拖累相关板块。
关联路径
俄乌地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
美国金融危机信号 / 安全港需求变化 / 贵金属价格暴跌
AI担忧加剧 / 科技股抛售 / 全球股市避险情绪
2026-02-12
2026-02-12
进展要点
- 美元兑日元走强，就业数据后短暂跌破154。
- 油价对中东紧张和供应风险敏感。
- 黄金等避险资产需求因地缘不确定性上升。
- 股市波动，纳斯达克在就业报告后下滑。
- 国债收益率因美联储预期可能上升。
- 欧元受欧盟改革乐观情绪支撑。
关联路径
强劲美国就业 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元↑、利率↑
伊朗紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 油价↑、黄金↑
俄乌升级 / 能源供应风险 / 大宗商品↑
欧盟改革 / 增长乐观 / 欧元↑、股市↑
2026-02-11
2026-02-11
进展要点
- 石油（WTI/Brent）：关注美伊局势与霍尔木兹海峡风险
- 黄金：避险需求受多重地缘风险支撑
- 美元：避险货币属性与贸易政策不确定性交织
- 美股：地缘风险与利率预期压制风险偏好
- 美国国债：避险资金流入可能压低收益率
- 欧元：受美欧贸易摩擦与欧盟内部分歧拖累
- 日元：避险需求与BOJ政策预期博弈
- 俄罗斯资产：受制裁与战事进展影响
关联路径
美伊军事升级 / 中东石油供应中断 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升
俄乌冲突升级 / 欧洲能源危机深化 / 工业活动放缓 / 欧元区衰退风险
美国关税政策不确定性 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长预期下调 / 风险资产抛售
台海紧张 / 科技供应链中断风险 / 半导体板块波动 / 全球风险情绪恶化
2026-02-10
2026-02-10
进展要点
- 油价：中东和俄乌供应风险支撑布伦特原油，关注美伊谈判结果
- 黄金：避险需求推高价格，地缘紧张持续则上看2000美元/盎司
- 美元：受中国减持美债和贸易摩擦影响，兑日元和欧元承压
- 日元：避险货币受益，美元兑日元跌破156后可能进一步下行
- 欧元：ECB政策中性，俄乌冲突风险压制欧元区资产
- 美债收益率：中国减持可能推高长期收益率，加剧市场波动
- 全球股市：地缘风险导致避险抛售，科技和能源板块敏感
- 比特币：作为替代避险资产，可能在地缘紧张中获资金流入
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突持续 / 能源供应中断 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元走强
中美贸易摩擦 / 关税威胁 / 风险资产抛售 / 日元和瑞郎升值
中国减持美债 / 美债收益率上升 / 美元贬值 / 新兴市场货币压力
2026-02-09
2026-02-09
进展要点
- 黄金：因避险需求上涨，关注俄乌和中东动态
- 石油：地缘风险溢价上升，特别是中东供应担忧
- 美元：作为避险货币可能走强，但受白宫声明影响有限
- 日元：受日本政策预期压制，可能进一步贬值
- 全球股市：面临下行压力，避险情绪压制风险资产
- 债券：日本债券可能受压，美国国债或因避险需求受益
关联路径
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金、美元需求增加
中东冲突 / 石油供应担忧 / 油价波动并影响通胀预期
日本政策变化 / 亚洲地区风险 / 资产价格调整和汇率波动
谈判僵局 / 不确定性升高 / 全球资本流向避险资产
2026-02-08
2026-02-08
进展要点
- Oil (Brent/WTI): Upward pressure from EU/Russia sanctions and Middle East tensions; watch for supply disruptions.
- Gold: Likely to strengthen on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.
- USD: May appreciate due to risk-off flows and US tariff policies; monitor DXY index.
- Equities: Mixed; European equities could face headwinds from sanctions, while Indian markets rally on trade deal.
- FX: GBP depreciation expected on UK rate cut prospects; EUR volatility from EU policy divisions.
- Rates: UK gilts may rally on dovish BoE stance; US Treasuries sensitive to geopolitical shocks.
- Commodities: Industrial metals could be impacted by trade policies; agricultural markets stable for now.
关联路径
EU sanctions on Russia / Russian oil supply constraints / Global oil price increase / Inflationary pressures / Central bank policy responses
Middle East tensions / Iran threats and US actions / Oil market volatility / Risk-off sentiment / Safe-haven asset flows
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy infrastructure damage / European gas supply risks / Economic growth concerns / Equity market sell-offs
US-India trade deal / Tariff reductions / Improved trade sentiment / Regional equity gains (e.g., Indian markets) / Broader EM optimism
2026-02-07
2026-02-07
进展要点
- 美股：道指突破50000点，关注持续反弹和科技股表现。
- 美元：避险需求可能支撑，但风险情绪改善或施压。
- 黄金：地缘风险推高需求，价格可能上涨。
- 石油：美伊制裁和俄乌冲突推高风险溢价，布伦特原油关注供应中断。
- 欧元：ECB利率决议后稳定，但制裁风险可能影响。
- 人民币：中国经济政策支持，但中美紧张可能带来波动。
- 国债利率：风险情绪改善可能推高利率，但地缘风险抑制。
- 稀土价格：中国出口限制致价格新高，监控供应链影响。
关联路径
美股反弹 / 全球风险情绪改善 / 风险资产上涨，美元波动
美伊制裁 / 中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨，通胀预期升
俄乌冲突 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强， equities受压
中美紧张 / 安全港需求 / USD / Gold up，贸易流调整
2026-02-06
2026-02-06
进展要点
- 黄金价格下跌，跌破4850美元/盎司，受美元走强和美联储鹰派影响
- 白银价格下跌，跌破75美元/盎司
- 油价关注中东紧张，伊朗风险可能推高价格
- 美元走强，避险需求和政策预期支撑
- 美股下跌，道琼斯、标普500和纳斯达克指数抛售，科技股跌势加剧
- 比特币暴跌，风险资产普遍承压
- 日本大选结果可能影响日元和债券，高市早苗若获胜或利好
关联路径
美俄军控失效 / 地缘紧张升级 / 避险资产需求上升
美联储鹰派信号 / 美元走强 / 金银价格下跌
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期变化
股市抛售 / 避险情绪升温 / 美元和黄金需求
2026-02-05
2026-02-05
进展要点
- 石油：因地缘风险（俄乌、中东）上涨超3%，布伦特69.46美元/桶，纽约65.14美元/桶。
- 黄金：避险需求支撑，但美伊会谈可能压制涨幅；关注地缘 escalation。
- 外汇：欧元走弱因通胀下降和鸽派预期；美元受避险和风险情绪双向影响。
- 股市：混合信号，俄乌和中东风险压制，但美中通话和欧央行宽松可能提振。
- 债券：欧债收益率可能下行，美债受避险需求影响；关注某国高利率冲击。
- 商品：关键矿产供应链紧张可能推高相关金属价格。
关联路径
地缘冲突升级 / 能源供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
外交谈判进展 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹和避险资产回调
央行鸽派信号 / 货币贬值 / 出口竞争力和资本流动变化
制裁和脱钩政策 / 供应链重组 / 商品价格波动和贸易摩擦
2026-02-04
2026-02-04
进展要点
- 黄金价格大幅反弹，创2009年以来最大单日涨幅，站上4900美元/盎司。
- 白银期价重新站上80美元/盎司，受避险需求推动。
- 纽约股市下跌，纳斯达克跌1.43%，受AI技术冲击软件股担忧。
- 石油价格受中东紧张支撑，但印度停购俄油协议可能调整供应。
- 美元指数走软，因避险资金流向黄金和非美资产。
- 印度股市因贸易协议上涨，显示区域市场分化。
- 美国国债收益率可能受压于避险买盘。
- 人民币汇率受国际化言论影响，但实际变动有限。
关联路径
中东地缘紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产需求
俄乌冲突加剧 / 欧洲能源危机风险 / 黄金和美元走强
美国政府停摆结束 / 财政不确定性降低 / 风险资产短期支撑
贸易协议调整 / 全球供应链重塑 / 商品价格和汇率波动
2026-02-03
2026-02-03
进展要点
- 股市：全球风险抛售，亚洲股市领跌（KOSPI -5.26%），关注欧美市场反应。
- 贵金属：黄金现货跌至4402美元/盎司，白银跌至71美元/盎司，避险属性暂时削弱。
- 原油：WTI收盘62.14美元/桶（-4.71%），Brent 66.30美元/桶（-4.36%），地缘风险溢价调整。
- 外汇：美元因避险需求走强，关注日元、欧元兑美元汇率。
- 利率：美债收益率可能上行，反映紧缩预期。
- 加密货币：比特币跌破75000美元，跟随风险资产下跌。
关联路径
美联储鹰派预期 / 全球风险规避 / 股市、大宗商品同步下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价波动与避险资产需求
美印贸易协议 / 关税降低 / 改善双边贸易与风险情绪
美伊紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应恐惧与地缘风险溢价
2026-02-02
2026-02-02
进展要点
- 油价因中东紧张和OPEC+政策上涨，布伦特原油关注每桶90美元以上水平。
- 美元指数因美联储鹰派预期走强，兑主要货币（如欧元、日元）可能升值。
- 黄金作为避险资产需求增加，但受美元走强压制，关注2000美元/盎司支撑。
- 美股可能承压于地缘风险和利率上升，科技股尤其敏感。
- 加密货币暴跌后，比特币需守稳77000美元关口，否则进一步下行风险。
- 韩元兑美元汇率突破1450，韩国股市双指暴跌，外资流出加剧。
- 美国国债收益率因鹰派预期上升，2年期收益率可能测试5%以上。
- 印度Sensex指数暴跌超2300点，反映预算案负面影响，需监控反弹机会。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突加剧 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求增加
美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场货币贬值和资本外流
OPEC+产量不变 / 原油供应受限 / 能源价格上涨 / 企业成本上升
2026-02-01
2026-02-01
进展要点
- 美元指数：受避险需求和美联储提名支撑，可能上涨。
- 黄金：地缘风险和货币政策不确定性支撑价格，但提名后短期承压。
- 石油：中东供应风险推高价格，关注美伊局势发展。
- 美国股市：政策不确定性和风险情绪偏负，可能下跌。
- 韩国股市：出口强劲提供支撑，但受全球风险影响。
- 比特币：地缘风险加剧，价格下跌至接近7.7万美元。
关联路径
Fed chair nomination / monetary policy uncertainty / global risk repricing
Middle East tensions / oil supply risk / inflation and safe-haven demand
U.S. government shutdown / policy instability / market volatility
Russia-Ukraine conflict / geopolitical risk / gold and USD appreciation
2026-01-31
2026-01-31
进展要点
- 黄金期货跌破4800美元/盎司，跌幅超10%。
- 白银期货跌破80美元/盎司，跌幅超30%。
- 美元指数上涨0.73%至96.989。
- 纽约股市三大股指下跌，纳斯达克领跌0.94%。
- 欧元兑美元汇率从1.1951降至1.1865。
- 石油价格受中东风险支撑，但需关注供应动态。
- 美国国债收益率可能因Fed政策预期而波动。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力 / 央行响应
美联储政策转向 / 利率下降 / 美元走弱 / 新兴市场资金流
地缘政治风险 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元走强
贸易争端 / 供应链中断 / 全球增长担忧