The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-05-17 13:36 (CN)
WATCH TRACK
Market Watch
Brent crude: Supported by both Hormuz and Russian oil sanctions, short-term strength; watch Iran mechanism details.; Gold: Geopolitical safe-haven demand persists; potential to break previous highs.
SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-05-17
Sources
80
Mainland
3
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
77
Official
6
Non-official
74
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
78
Chinese
3
English
37
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Australia / Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 77, mainland sources = 3.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 37, Chinese-language sources = 3.
RESEARCH PROJECTION

Research Projection

Linked products: SC Crude Oil / AU Gold / FU Fuel Oil
Tracking status: active 18 / review due 16 / reviewed 2 / extended 24
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest decision: reframed · manual_reframe_market_watch_anchor_refresh
Latest checkpoints
2026-05-17
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude: Supported by both Hormuz and Russian oil sanctions, short-term strength; watch Iran mechanism details.
  • Gold: Geopolitical safe-haven demand persists; potential to break previous highs.
  • US dollar index: Safe-haven inflows keep dollar strong, especially against EM currencies.
  • US equities: Risk sentiment under pressure, but House failure to pass war resolution reduces some political uncertainty.
  • South Korean won: Follows KOSPI plunge; FX intervention risk rises.
  • US Treasury yields: Safe-haven buying lowers long-end rates, but inflation expectations limit downside.
Linkage
Iran Strait fees / oil supply disruption risk / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise
Taiwan independence remarks / US-China confrontation escalates / geopolitical risk premium / EM capital outflows
Russian oil sanctions reinstated / supply tightens / energy prices up / European economic pressure
Multiple conflicts / risk aversion / capital flows into gold and USD / equity and bond volatility
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
Reference Links
2026-05-16
Open report
Updates
  • USD: Supported by safe-haven demand, but Fed policy expectations remain a variable.
  • Gold: Middle East and Russia-Ukraine risks overlap; gold prices remain high.
  • Crude Oil: Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iran supply risk; oil prices likely to rise easily and fall with difficulty.
  • US Stocks: Geopolitical risks suppress risk appetite; under pressure in short term.
  • Emerging Market Currencies: Asian emerging currencies may face pressure from Taiwan risk.
  • European Stocks: Russia-Ukraine situation and German economic slowdown expectations are bearish.
Linkage
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-15
Open report
Updates
  • Dollar index strengthens on safe-haven support; watch Fed policy signals.
  • Yen breaks below post-intervention lows; further depreciation may trigger new intervention.
  • Oil prices fall on Iran's green light for China, but geopolitical risk premium remains high; Brent focus on $75-80 range.
  • Gold holds high levels, with safe-haven demand and dollar strength offsetting each other.
  • US stocks pressured by trade deal disappointment and geopolitical risks; tech stocks hit by export control concerns.
  • Treasury yields mixed due to Fed leadership change and inflation expectations.
Linkage
Iran Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / oil price spike / global inflation expectations / central bank policy dilemma / risk-off
Trump-Xi summit no trade deal / risk sentiment down / dollar strengthens / emerging markets under pressure
Taiwan conflict warning / geopolitical premium / semiconductor supply chain disruption risk / tech stock sell-off
Fed leadership change / monetary policy path uncertainty / rate volatility / carry trade unwinding
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-05-14
Open report
Updates
  • USD: Supported by hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven demand, short-term bias strong.
  • Treasury yields: Rising inflation and policy uncertainty may push yields higher.
  • Gold: Torn between rate hike pressure and safe-haven demand; India tariff adds downside pressure.
  • Crude oil: Ongoing Middle East conflict provides support; watch Strait of Hormuz situation.
  • US equities: Summit outcome and Fed policy expectations are key drivers; short-term volatile.
  • CNY: Summit optimism temporarily eases depreciation pressure, but may weaken if talks fail.
Linkage
Fed chair change / policy uncertainty / USD / Treasury volatility / global asset repricing
US-China summit outcome / trade outlook / risk appetite / equities / commodities
Middle East conflict escalation / oil supply risk / inflation expectations / central bank policy constraints
India gold tariff hike / global physical gold demand decline / gold price pressure
Sources
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-13
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent crude near $110; Strait of Hormuz blockade persists; upside risk remains high
  • USD: Inflation and safe-haven demand support USD, but strong summit outcomes could trigger a pullback
  • Gold: Safe-haven sentiment dominates; gold prices continue to rise; watch for breakout above previous highs
  • Treasuries: Yields rise on inflation expectations, but safe-haven buying limits gains; watch key 10-year levels
  • Global equities: Risk-off weighs on Asia-Pacific markets; focus on whether U.S.-China summit can boost sentiment
  • JPY: Safe-haven properties emerge; yen strengthens against USD
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil supply shock / inflation rise / central bank tightening expectations / risk asset decline
U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapse / military escalation / oil price surge / global recession fears / safe-haven inflows
U.S.-China summit outcome / trade policy expectations / risk sentiment volatility / USD / EM FX two-way swings
Russian nuclear deterrence / European security tensions / capital flows to safe havens / gold / Treasuries benefit
Sources
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-12
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent breaks $104, WTI approaches $100; supply shock drives upside
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices higher; focus on China-US summit risk events
  • USD: Safe-haven buying supports dollar index, but tariff uncertainty limits gains
  • US stocks: Energy sector benefits, but consumer and tech under pressure; overall risk appetite declines
  • Treasuries: Yield curve flattens; long-term inflation expectations rise
  • Emerging markets: Energy-importing countries' currencies under pressure; Chinese stocks supported by trade negotiation expectations
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply plummets / Oil prices surge / Inflation expectations rise / Risk asset sell-off
China-US summit outcome / Trade policy direction / Corporate confidence and exchange rate volatility
US-Iran ceasefire collapse / Full-scale Middle East war / Safe-haven flows into gold / dollar
US sanctions on Iran oil / China energy security risk / RMB depreciation pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-05-11
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: US-Iran blockade and attacks push Brent above $110, short-term risk premium hard to fade
  • Gold: Safe-haven buying surges, gold breaks above $3,200, focus on central bank purchases
  • USD: Risk sentiment supports dollar strength, but rising Treasury yields may create contradiction
  • US Treasuries: Issuance expectations push long-term yields higher, 10-year yield nears 5% psychological level
  • US stocks: Geopolitical risk and rising rates weigh, S&P 500 under pressure, energy stocks rebound
  • FX: Yen, Swiss franc as funding currencies boosted by safe-haven buying, EM currencies under pressure
Linkage
US warships blockade Iran / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / oil supply disruption fears / oil price surge / inflation expectations rise
Trump rejects Iran ceasefire / risk aversion surges / funds flow into gold / USD / risk asset sell-off
US issues more debt / bond supply shock / yields rise / tech stock valuations pressured / stock market decline
Iran war / UK recession signal / global growth concerns / risk appetite deteriorates
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
Reference Links
2026-05-10
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent could test $90 if it breaks $85; focus on actual blockade of Strait of Hormuz
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand supports; could surge to $2400 if full-scale US-Iran war breaks out
  • USD: Safe-haven buying pushes dollar index higher, but tariff news favors euro
  • US stocks: Energy sector benefits, but overall risk appetite is suppressed
  • US Treasuries: Short-term safe-haven buying lowers yields; watch long-term inflation expectations
Linkage
US-Iran clashes / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil / Safe-haven assets / Global equities
US sanctions on Chinese companies / US-China tensions / Trade agreement risk / Risk appetite
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes / Brief risk appetite improvement / Risk-off if hopes fade
Israel-Lebanon conflict / Middle East instability / Oil risk premium
Sources
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
Reference Links
2026-05-09
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent may break $90; if Hormuz blockade persists, could reach $100
  • Gold: Safe-haven support but Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may trigger pullback; range $2350-2400
  • U.S. dollar index: Employment beat + safe-haven demand; DXY strong in short term
  • U.S. stocks: Middle East conflict weighs on risk appetite, but Russia-Ukraine ceasefire provides brief rebound window
  • U.S. Treasury yields: Rising on inflation expectations; short end up
  • Shipping stocks: Maersk cost increase drags on profits, but freight rate hikes may benefit some shipping companies
Linkage
Hormuz conflict / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation / Central bank tightening expectations
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire / Risk sentiment eases / Brief risk asset rebound
U.S. employment beat / USD strengthens / Emerging market pressure
U.S.-Germany relations deteriorate / NATO uncertainty / European safe-haven flows into USD / gold
Sources
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
Reference Links
2026-05-08
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent crude jumps; if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, it could break $120.
  • Gold: Safe-haven buying pushes gold prices up; high probability of breaking previous highs.
  • U.S. dollar: Safe-haven inflows support the dollar, but the tariff ruling may limit gains.
  • U.S. stocks: S&P 500 under pressure; energy sector surges; tech stocks dragged by trade uncertainty.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran exchange of fire / Risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations / Central bank policy dilemma
Tariff illegal / Trade uncertainty decreases / Business confidence recovers / Recession expectations ease
Military conflict / Risk-off sentiment / Gold / dollar strengthen / Risk asset sell-off
European aircraft carrier deployment / Risk of multinational intervention / Geopolitical linkage / Asset volatility rises
Sources
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-05-07
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent $101.27/barrel, WTI $95.08/barrel, single-day drop over 7%, extremely high volatility.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand supported by Russia-Ukraine and Middle East events, but US-Iran deal expectations limit upside.
  • USD: Risk sentiment swings, dollar index short-term strong; focus on Fed statements.
  • US stocks: Geopolitical risks weigh on risk appetite, but falling oil prices benefit consumer and airline sectors.
Linkage
US-Iran deal progress / oil risk premium declines / global inflation expectations ease / stocks and bonds rise
Russia-Ukraine Victory Day escalation / safe-haven assets (gold / USD) strengthen / capital outflows from emerging markets
Israel-Lebanon conflict / Middle East risk premium rises / oil rebounds / global growth concerns
Oil tanker attack / shipping insurance costs rise / trade disruption risk increases
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-05-06
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude: closed at $109.87/barrel on May 5 (-$1.23)
  • WTI crude: closed at $102.27/barrel on May 5 (-$1.18)
  • S&P 500: up 0.81%, Nasdaq up 1.03% boosted by suspension of operations
  • Gold: supported by safe-haven demand but gains limited; real interest rates rise cap upside
  • US dollar index: slightly higher on safe-haven demand
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / oil supply shortage expectations / inflation risk / central bank rate hike expectations
Trump suspends operations / short-term risk appetite recovery / stock market rebound, oil price pullback
Iran's new rules / actual transit obstruction / physical oil shortage / oil price upside
US-EU trade frictions / global trade uncertainty / safe-haven asset demand
Sources
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-05-05
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude closed at $114.44/barrel, WTI at $106.42/barrel, with upside risk remaining strong.
  • Dow -1.13%, S&P -0.41%; energy sector rose against the trend but bearish pressure spread.
  • Gold rose on safe-haven buying; US dollar index strengthened to around 106.
  • Euro under pressure from auto tariff threats; EUR/USD fell below 1.08.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Oil supply risk / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations / Risk asset sell-off
Iran attacks UAE / Regional security deterioration / Safe-haven buying / USD / gold rise
Trump tariff threat on Europe / EU export outlook worsens / Euro depreciation / European stock decline
US sanctions on Iranian oil / China import disruption / Global oil market tightening / Oil price upside
Sources
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-04
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent/WTI volatility increases; focus on actual transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz and Russian oil export data.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand supports; watch resistance above $1,920/oz.
  • U.S. dollar index: Short-term strength; euro under pressure due to NATO rifts.
  • U.S. stocks: Energy sector benefits from oil prices, but overall risk appetite suppressed; watch VIX levels.
  • U.S. Treasuries: Safe-haven buying pushes yields lower; watch if 10-year yield breaks below 3.8%.
  • Shipping: Strait of Hormuz disruption boosts tanker freight rates; watch Baltic Tanker Index.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Crude oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy tightening
NATO split / European security risk / Capital flows into USD / Gold / USD strengthens
OPEC+ production increase / Oil price under pressure / Inflation relief / Risk appetite improves
Ukraine attacks / Russian oil exports decline / Global heavy crude supply tightens
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
Reference Links
2026-05-03
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent/WTI continue to rise, Strait of Hormuz blockade and Kuwait zero exports are core drivers.
  • Gold: safe-haven inflows, watch for breakout above previous highs.
  • US dollar index: supported by safe-haven and rate expectations, but yen intervention may temporarily weigh on USD/JPY.
  • Yen: may face depreciation pressure after intervention, watch 115-118 range.
  • Indian rupee: continues to weaken under tariff impact.
  • US stocks: airline stocks (Spirit Airlines bankruptcy), energy-related stocks see increased volatility.
Linkage
US-Iran talks collapse / military threats / Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil price surge / global risk sentiment deteriorates
Kuwait zero exports + Iran production cuts / supply gap / energy costs fuel inflation / central bank policy dilemma
US-China sanctions escalation / trade war spreads / supply chain restructuring / global trade shrinks
Yen intervention / non-USD currency volatility / carry trade unwinding / emerging market capital outflows
Sources
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-05-02
Open report
Updates
  • USD: Short-term supported by safe-haven flows, but trade war escalation may weigh
  • Gold: Strong safe-haven demand, likely to break previous highs
  • Crude Oil: Hormuz Strait risk and war premium persist; Brent may surge
  • US and European equities: Auto sector plunges, Euro Stoxx 600 under pressure
Linkage
Auto tariffs / US-EU trade war / Global growth downgrade / Risk assets fall
US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Military strike risk / Oil price rise / Inflation expectations increase
Iran attacks US bases / Geopolitical premium rises / Gold safe-haven buying
War spending expansion / US fiscal deficit / Long-term rate concerns
Sources
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-05-01
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude: $126 is strong resistance, but geopolitical risk premium remains; if US-Iran war breaks out, could break $130.
  • WTI crude: around $105, supported by US gasoline price of $4.30; refinery crack spreads widen.
  • Gold: safe-haven demand supports; if conflict escalates, could hit all-time high of $2,400.
  • US dollar index: benefits from safe-haven and Fed hawkish bias, but Japan intervention brings short-term downside risk.
  • USD/JPY: 155 is short-term support; if intervention continues, could test 150, but interest rate differential still supports carry trade.
Linkage
Hormuz blockade / oil supply disruption / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise / central bank policy dilemma
US-Iran military confrontation / risk of full-scale Middle East war / safe-haven assets (USD, gold) inflows / risk asset sell-off
UAE exit from OPEC+ / OPEC+ control weakens / oil price volatility rises / oil-producing countries' fiscal and geopolitical games
Japan FX intervention / yen short-term appreciation / carry trade unwinding / Asian FX chain reaction
Sources
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
Reference Links
2026-04-30
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude: closed at $118.03, near $120 intraday, watch $120 level and signals on US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.
  • WTI crude: closed at $106.88, up 6.95%, if Brent continues higher, WTI may break $110.
  • Gold: safe-haven demand pushes gold higher, watch if US-Iran conflict escalation drives gold to test previous highs.
  • US dollar index: Fed holding steady supports USD, but trade friction may cap upside.
  • US stocks: S&P 500 down 0.04%, tech earnings optimism offsets some energy concerns, but risk appetite overall weak.
  • US Treasury yields: 10-year yield supported by inflation expectations, watch curve changes after Powell's speech.
Linkage
US-Iran talks stalemate / Strait of Hormuz blockade / oil price surge / inflation expectations rise / global risk-off
Trump extends blockade + UAE exits OPEC / supply uncertainty increases / oil volatility spikes / energy stocks vs airlines divergence
China pressures EU / China-EU trade friction escalates / euro / CNY volatility / global supply chain costs rise
Powell stays + independence controversy / Fed policy path uncertainty / US yield curve steepens / bank stocks vs tech valuation pressure
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-29
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent hovers around $112, New York crude breaks $100, future depends on Hormuz stalemate and UAE production increase.
  • Gold: Safe-haven inflows push gold prices higher; watch for a breakout above previous highs.
  • USD: Safe-haven demand supports the dollar index, but inflation risks may limit gains.
  • Equities: Global stock markets under pressure; energy stocks benefit from high oil prices, but risk appetite remains low.
Linkage
UAE exit from OPEC / OPEC dissolution risk / production competition among countries / long-term oil price uncertainty
Strait of Hormuz blockade / crude oil supply disruption / oil price surge / global inflation expectations rise
US-Iran stalemate continues / geopolitical risk premium / safe-haven assets (gold, USD) rise
World Bank energy price forecast / market adjustment of central bank policy expectations / increased volatility in risk assets
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
2026-04-28
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent/WTI supported by Hormuz situation, up 2.8%/2.1% overnight; focus on Trump peace plan.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices up; watch developments in assassination case.
  • USD: Political risk plus safe-haven flows; USD index short-term strong.
  • US equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq slightly up (+0.12%/+0.2%), but political risk weighs on risk appetite.
  • US Treasuries: Yields may decline on increased safe-haven buying.
  • FX: EUR/CNY volatility increases due to China-EU trade friction.
Linkage
Trump assassination attempt / Political uncertainty / Safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, Equities down
Hormuz blockade / Oil supply shock / Oil prices up / Inflation expectations up / Risk assets under pressure
US-Iran talks progress / Supply risk down / Risk appetite up (limited)
China-EU trade friction / Tariff / non-tariff barriers / Global trade slowdown / Affected currencies / stocks suffer
Sources
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
Reference Links
2026-04-27
Open report
Updates
  • USD: Safe-haven buying pushes dollar index higher, watch for breakout of 98-99 range
  • Gold: Spot gold approaches previous highs, geopolitical risks provide ongoing support
  • Oil: Brent crude breaks through $90, driven by Strait of Hormuz and sanctions waiver termination
  • Equities: S&P 500 under pressure, volatility index may jump, defensive sectors favored
  • Rates: U.S. Treasury yields decline, long-end rates attract safe-haven flows
  • KRW: South Korea issues high oil price subsidies, won faces imported inflation pressure
Linkage
Trump assassination / political uncertainty / USD / gold up / risk assets down
Iran strait toll + U.S. waiver termination / oil supply contraction / oil prices up / inflation expectations rise
Israel-Lebanon conflict escalation / Middle East full-scale war risk / safe-haven assets strengthen
Russia-Ukraine nuclear facility attack / nuclear safety concerns / geopolitical premium expansion
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
Reference Links
2026-04-26
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude: After breaking $100, next resistance at $120 if Strait blockade persists.
  • Gold: Safe-haven sentiment pushes prices up; watch $2,400 level.
  • US Dollar Index: Safe-haven buying supports; may test 105 high.
  • S&P 500: Volatility increases; watch Trump statements and earnings season impact.
  • US Treasuries: Safe-haven inflows push yields down; 10-year yield may fall below 4%.
  • Shipping/Insurance: Strait of Hormuz risk premium rises; related ETFs and rates increase.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil price surge / Global inflation and central bank tightening expectations
US-Iran talks collapse / Geopolitical risk premium / Safe-haven assets (gold / USD) strengthen
Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalation / Middle East spillover risk / Crude oil liquidity tightens
Trump statements / Policy uncertainty / Stock market volatility amplifies
Sources
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-25
Open report
Updates
  • Crude Oil (Brent): Breaks $100; if Strait of Hormuz remains closed, could target $120.
  • Gold: Safe-haven buying pushes above $3,400/oz; if risks persist, may test $3,500.
  • US Dollar Index: Supported by safe-haven inflows, but weak consumer confidence limits gains.
  • S&P 500: Under pressure from consumer confidence and oil price shocks; may test 4,500.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Warsh's balance sheet reduction expectations push yields near 4.5%, but recession fears cap upside.
  • CNY/USD: Sanctions on Chinese refineries increase depreciation pressure; watch 7.30 level.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Inflation expectations rise / Risk asset sell-off
US sanctions on Chinese refineries / Higher Chinese oil import costs / CNY depreciation pressure / Emerging market capital outflows
Consumer confidence collapse / US consumption slowdown / Recession expectations / US yield curve steepening inversion
Warsh's balance sheet reduction signal / Liquidity tightening / Higher rates / Equity valuation compression
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-24
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil: Brent supported by Strait of Hormuz risk, likely to break key resistance
  • Gold: Safe-haven inflows hit recent highs; watch $1900 level
  • USD: Risk appetite declines, dollar index strengthens
  • US stocks: Broadly under pressure; energy stocks relatively strong; tech stocks sold off
  • Euro: Weighed by EU sanctions and Ukraine loan, weak against dollar
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz conflict / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global risk assets decline
EU sanctions on Russia / Energy trade restrictions / European inflation pressure / Euro under pressure
Middle East war / Panama Canal fees double / Global trade costs rise
Tehran air defense activity / Ceasefire breakdown risk / Safe-haven demand boosts gold
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
Reference Links
2026-04-23
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel; monitor subsequent trends, as further escalation could lead to additional increases.
  • Stock markets: U.S. stocks rose due to ceasefire extension, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 up over 1%, but geopolitical risks limit gains.
  • Safe-haven assets: Gold may benefit from rising risks, while the U.S. dollar strengthens due to safe-haven demand.
  • Exchange rates: The euro faces pressure from Germany's growth downgrade and energy risks, while the U.S. dollar index may rise.
  • Bonds: Rising inflation expectations may push up interest rates, increasing risks of central bank policy tightening.
  • Commodities: Aviation fuel crisis threatens European summer travel, potentially leading to declines in related sector stocks.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz tension / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Inflation expectations rise
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Risk aversion rise / Gold and U.S. dollar rise
Ceasefire extension / Risk appetite improvement / Stock market rebound
Energy crisis / Economic growth downgrade / Risk assets under pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
Reference Links
2026-04-22
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil prices rise due to Middle East supply risks; focus on Brent and WTI futures
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increases; prices may break the $4,800 threshold
  • Stock markets under pressure; FTSE 100 falls due to war deadline; U.S. stocks open higher but caution needed for pullback
  • USD may strengthen on safe-haven demand; monitor USD index and major currency pairs
  • European stocks fluctuate on energy shock concerns; EUR/USD exchange rate sensitive
  • Interest rate markets focus on Fed policy expectations; U.S. Treasury yields may rise
Linkage
Iran talks breakdown / Rising Middle East geopolitical risk / Higher oil and gold prices / Inflation pressure
Strait of Hormuz tensions / Oil supply disruption / Global energy price volatility / Safe-haven sentiment
China-U.S. tensions / Sanctions risk / Safe-haven asset demand / Higher USD and gold prices
Fed policy expectations / USD and interest rate volatility / Global asset repricing / Stock market adjustments
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-21
Open report
Updates
  • Crude: NY crude futures rise to $89.61/barrel (+6.87%), Brent to $95.48/barrel (+5.64%), driven by supply disruption risk.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, gold prices may increase, monitor U.S.-Iran situation developments.
  • Dollar: Geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve uncertainty support safe-haven demand, but inflation pressure could weaken long-term trend.
  • Stocks: Risk sentiment pressured, energy sector benefits from oil price rise, but overall market may decline due to risk-off.
  • Interest rates: Inflation expectation rise pushes up Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy moves become key variable.
  • Foreign exchange: Safe-haven currencies like yen and franc may strengthen, emerging market currencies under pressure.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran negotiation breakdown / Middle East military escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade prolongs / Crude supply disruption / Oil price rise
Oil price rise / Global inflation expectation increase / Central bank policy tightening / Interest rate and dollar volatility / Stock market pressure
Regional conflict spreads / Energy crisis intensifies / Safe-haven asset demand increases / Gold and Treasury prices rise
Federal Reserve independence compromised / Monetary policy uncertainty / Market confidence declines / Risk asset sell-off
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
Reference Links
2026-04-20
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil prices surged 7%, with WTI and Brent facing upward pressure.
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increased, potentially driving prices higher.
  • The US dollar strengthened due to safe-haven demand, but geopolitical risks could suppress risk currencies.
  • Global stock markets faced pressure, especially energy-sensitive sectors and emerging markets.
  • US Treasury yields may decline due to safe-haven demand.
Linkage
Escalation of US-Iran military conflict / Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz / Surge in oil prices / Global inflationary pressure
Stalled talks / Increased geopolitical uncertainty / Demand for safe-haven assets / Strengthening of US dollar and gold
Iran's强硬回应 / Regional supply disruptions / Energy market volatility / Stock market adjustments
Intensified great power competition / Rising global risk premium / Asset repricing
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-04-19
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices surge significantly due to supply disruption risks, focus on Brent and WTI futures.
  • Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, prices may continue to rise.
  • U.S. dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand but may be limited by inflation concerns.
  • Global stock markets face risks, especially in energy-dependent sectors.
  • Safe-haven demand in bond markets pushes up Treasury prices, lowering yields.
Linkage
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Increased global inflation risk
U.S.-Iran tensions escalate / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and dollar strengthen / Stock markets under pressure
U.S. boards Iranian vessels / Geopolitical risks intensify / Oil supply concerns / Increased market volatility
Regional conflict expands / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Asset repricing
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-04-18
Open report
Updates
  • International oil prices plummeted over 10%, with Brent crude futures falling below $90, easing inflationary pressures.
  • Stock markets rose due to falling oil prices, improving risk sentiment, but geopolitical risks limited gains.
  • Safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar may benefit from conflict escalation, requiring monitoring of capital flows.
  • Oil futures experienced significant volatility, with traders betting on declines before the announcement, showing market sensitivity.
  • Monitor changes in inflation expectations; falling oil prices may reduce pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.
  • Currency markets: The U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand, putting pressure on emerging market currencies.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz opening / increased oil supply / falling oil prices / inflation eases, stock markets rise
Middle East conflict escalation / oil supply risk / oil price volatility / safe-haven asset demand rises
U.S.-Iran negotiation progress / geopolitical tension eases / risk assets rise, oil prices face downward pressure
Taiwan Strait tensions / safe-haven sentiment / U.S. dollar and gold strengthen, risk assets face pressure
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
2026-04-17
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Strait of Hormuz closure supports oil prices, but ceasefire agreement may bring downward pressure; monitor Brent crude volatility.
  • Gold: Escalating geopolitical risks drive safe-haven demand, gold prices may rise; but improved risk sentiment could limit gains.
  • US Dollar: Enhanced safe-haven attributes may strengthen the dollar; but risk asset rebounds could weaken its momentum.
  • Equities: Progress in US-Iran talks and China's GDP growth benefit risk assets, S&P 500 may rebound; but conflict news weighs on sentiment.
  • FX: Geopolitical tensions support the dollar, euro pressured by European growth concerns; yuan supported by China's economic data.
  • Rates: Risk-off sentiment may push up US Treasury yields, but growth concerns limit upside.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil and fertilizer supply disruptions / Rising global inflation and slowing growth / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
Progress in US-Iran talks / Reduced Middle East geopolitical risk / Lower oil prices and stock market gains / Improved risk sentiment
Escalation of Russian airstrikes / Rising European security risks / Rising gold and US dollar / Increased risk-off sentiment
Strong China GDP growth / Boosted global macro confidence / Rebound in risk assets / Offsetting some geopolitical negative impacts
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-14
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil prices surge due to supply risks, physical crude approaching $150 per barrel
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increases, prices may rise
  • U.S. dollar may strengthen due to risk-off sentiment, but volatility influenced by geopolitics
  • Global stock markets face downward pressure, especially in energy-dependent economies
  • Bond markets may reflect inflation concerns and safe-haven demand
  • Rising shipping costs impact energy and trade-related sectors
Linkage
U.S. blockade of Iranian ports / Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflation
Geopolitical tensions / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar
Positive Chinese economic data / Credit growth / Local market sentiment improves, but offset by global risks
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-04-13
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil (Brent/WTI): Monitor whether prices can stabilize above $100 and test the $110-$120 resistance zone.
  • Gold: As a traditional safe-haven asset, after breaking historical highs, it has potential for further upside. Watch the $2300-$2400 per ounce range.
  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Safe-haven demand and potential 'inflation-rate hike' expectations may continue to support dollar strength.
  • US stocks: Energy sector benefits, but the overall market is under pressure due to interest rate concerns and deteriorating risk sentiment, with tech stocks particularly sensitive.
  • US Treasuries: The yield curve may show complex changes due to inflation expectations (long-end rising) and safe-haven demand (short-end falling).
Linkage
Geopolitical military conflict (blockade) / Physical disruption of oil supply / Oil price surge / Global inflation expectations heat up / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Risk asset valuations come under pressure
Escalating US-Iran confrontation / Regional security risk premium surges / Global risk aversion sentiment dominates / Capital flows into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / Risk assets are sold off
Energy crisis and inflation concerns / Corporate earnings expectations downgraded & consumer confidence dampened / Global economic recession risk increases / Cyclical stocks and commodities (excluding energy) weaken
Unilateral military action triggers international order turbulence / Long-term investment confidence damaged & supply chain restructuring accelerates / Global growth prospects dim / Market volatility (VIX) remains elevated
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
Reference Links
2026-04-12
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices higher, focus on supply disruption risks
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand increases, gold prices may rise
  • U.S. Dollar: Risk-off sentiment supports dollar strength
  • Equities: Geopolitical risks intensify, global stock markets under pressure, especially energy and safe-haven sectors
  • Currencies: Risk currencies such as emerging market currencies may decline
Linkage
U.S.-Iran negotiation deadlock / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Oil price increase / Rising inflation expectations
Escalating geopolitical tensions / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and dollar rise / Risk asset sell-off
Intensified military actions / Oil supply disruption / Global economic growth slowdown / Increased market volatility
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-04-11
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: Supported by Middle East and Russia-Ukraine supply risks, may rise further.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes prices higher; monitor geopolitical event developments.
  • US dollar: Strengthens as a safe-haven currency amid risk-off sentiment.
  • Equities: Face geopolitical and inflationary pressures, risk appetite declines.
  • Bonds: Rate hike expectations rise, yields may increase.
  • Foreign exchange: Safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen benefit, risk currencies under pressure.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Oil price rises / Inflation rises / Rate hike expectations
Geopolitical tensions / Safe-haven demand increases / Gold and US dollar strengthen
US CPI exceeds expectations / Federal Reserve policy tightening / Global asset volatility
Trade uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Market sentiment turns cautious
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
Reference Links
2026-04-10
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: Plunge after U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but supply chain disruption risks support Brent and WTI prices above $95/barrel.
  • Stock markets: Risk appetite rises, global stock indices may rebound, watch for rotation in energy and safe-haven sectors.
  • Gold: Geopolitical risk eases, safe-haven demand declines, gold prices under pressure but still supported by inflation.
  • Foreign exchange: Dollar may weaken due to rising risk appetite, euro fluctuates due to energy crisis.
  • Interest rates: Falling oil prices ease inflation, central bank policy expectations lean dovish, bond yields may decline.
  • Commodities: Aluminum, steel, copper affected by U.S. import restrictions, prices may rise.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran ceasefire / reduced geopolitical risk / lower oil prices / rising stock markets / decreased safe-haven asset demand
Strait of Hormuz closure / global oil supply disruption / higher oil prices / rising inflation / central bank policy tightening
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire / eased regional tensions / decreased safe-haven demand / rebound in risk assets / euro stability
Trump trade policy / global trade tensions / deteriorating risk sentiment / stronger dollar / pressure on commodities
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
Reference Links
2026-04-09
Open report
Updates
  • Increased oil price volatility, monitor strait navigation situation
  • US dollar index falls, euro and pound strengthen
  • US stocks rebound strongly, risk appetite rises
  • Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
  • Interest rate market reacts to Fed policy
  • Tight global energy supply chain
Linkage
Strait closure / oil supply disruption / inflation rise / central bank policy response
US-Iran negotiations / geopolitical risk easing / oil price drop and risk asset rise
US dollar decline / improved global liquidity / stock market rise
NATO dissolution risk / geopolitical tension / increased demand for safe-haven assets
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-08
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil (WTI/Brent): Fell overnight on ceasefire news, but beware geopolitical risk premium remains, support levels look to pre-conflict levels.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand recedes with de-escalation, but will quickly regain support if negotiations falter.
  • USD: Short-term attractiveness as safe-haven currency declines, but relatively stable US fundamentals still provide support.
  • US stocks: Geopolitical risk easing benefits risk sentiment, but watch fundamental drivers like interest rates and earnings.
  • US Treasuries: Weakening safe-haven demand may steepen yield curve, monitor inflation expectation changes.
Linkage
Middle East conflict intensity / Strait of Hormuz navigation status / Global oil actual supply and expectations / Oil price / Global inflation and central bank policy paths
US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk premium / Global risk-off sentiment / Asset prices like gold, USD, Treasuries
Conflict spillover risk / Regional stability and global trade route security / Supply chain costs and global growth expectations / Cyclical asset performance
US internal political divisions on Iran policy / Policy coherence and credibility / Long-term attractiveness and risk premium of USD assets
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-07
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil prices rise on supply risks, with Brent potentially breaching $100.
  • Gold demand as a safe-haven asset increases, pushing prices higher.
  • The U.S. dollar strengthens on risk-off sentiment, appreciating against risk currencies.
  • Global stock markets face downward pressure, especially in energy-dependent economies.
  • The Russian ruble and Iranian rial exchange rates fluctuate due to intensified conflict.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Inflation rises / Central bank policy tightening
Strait of Hormuz risk / Global oil trade受阻 / Economic recession concerns
Ukraine attacks Russian energy facilities / Europe's energy crisis worsens / Euro depreciation
U.S.-Iran negotiation progress / Risk sentiment improves / Oil prices retreat
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-06
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices rose due to Strait of Hormuz risks and Iranian attacks, with Brent crude potentially testing highs.
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increased, with prices likely to climb due to Middle East tensions.
  • The US dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven capital inflows, but petrodollar flows complicate the picture.
  • Global stock markets, especially energy and defensive sectors, will be affected by geopolitical risks.
  • Bond yields may fall due to risk-off sentiment, but inflation expectations push up long-term rates.
Linkage
Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price increase and inflation rise
US-Iran military confrontation / Middle East instability / Safe-haven asset demand rise / Gold and US dollar strengthen
OPEC+ production increase / Supply increase expectations / Oil price volatility / Risk asset adjustments
Geopolitical tensions / Global growth concerns / Stock market decline and bond yield decrease
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-04-05
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices (e.g., WTI, Brent) rise due to Middle East supply risks.
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increases, putting upward pressure on prices.
  • The USD may strengthen due to risk-off sentiment, especially against risk currencies.
  • Stock markets (especially tech stocks) experience increased volatility due to trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
  • Monitor the release of US inflation data, expected to surge for the first time due to geopolitical conflicts.
  • Bond market yields may decline due to safe-haven demand.
  • Commodities such as crude oil and gold become market focal points.
  • Iran shoots down 2 fighter jets and 3 drones from the US and Israel, further escalating tensions in the Middle East, with no signs of easing in the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran.
Linkage
US-Iran tensions / Oil supply disruption risk / Rising oil prices / Rising inflation expectations
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold and USD rise
Trade sanctions / Global supply chain risk / Stock market volatility
Increased defense spending / Widening fiscal deficit / Interest rate pressure
Sources
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
Reference Links
2026-04-04
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices may rise due to supply disruption risks from Iran's attack on a Kuwaiti refinery and the Hormuz Strait blockade.
  • Gold and the US dollar may benefit from safe-haven demand, with geopolitical tensions boosting safe assets.
  • US stock markets may face dual impacts from conflict and interest rate hike expectations, increasing volatility.
  • Foreign exchange market: US dollar strengthens, supported by employment data and safe-haven demand.
  • Bond yields may rise due to Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations.
  • Concerns about a global economic slowdown intensify, potentially pressuring risk assets such as emerging market stocks.
  • Iran shot down a US military aircraft and attacked Kuwaiti oil facilities, while the US threatens to escalate strikes against Iran, intensifying regional tensions.
  • US-Iran conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption risk / Rising oil prices and safe-haven demand
Linkage
US-Iran conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflation
Hormuz Strait blockade / Global trade disruption / Economic slowdown and market risk-off
Strong US employment data / Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations / US dollar appreciation
Geopolitical tensions / Risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-04-03
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: NYMEX crude futures surge over 11% to $111.54/barrel, monitor Strait of Hormuz risks
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, prices may increase due to Middle East tensions
  • US Dollar: Safe-haven currency attributes strengthen, but improved trade deficit may provide support
  • Equities: Global risk sentiment deteriorates, energy stocks benefit but overall market under pressure
  • Currencies: Euro weighed by EU energy crisis concerns, Yen may strengthen on safe-haven flows
  • Interest Rates: Rising inflation expectations may put upward pressure on bond yields
  • Commodities: Aluminum and copper affected by US tariff adjustments, price volatility increases
  • Energy Stocks: Rising oil prices benefit oil companies, but geopolitical risks limit gains
Linkage
Iran war / Strait of Hormuz disruptions / Reduced oil supply / Oil price increase / Rising global inflation
US imposes pharmaceutical tariffs / Heightened trade tensions / Supply chain disruptions / Rising risk-off sentiment / Equity market decline
Middle East conflict escalation / Rising geopolitical risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets / Gold and US Dollar strengthen
Sanctions discussions / Shipping risks / Rising energy costs / Economic growth slowdown / Central bank policy adjustments
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
Reference Links
2026-04-02
Open report
Updates
  • High oil price volatility, Brent crude may fluctuate around $100/barrel
  • Safe-haven assets like gold and USD see rising demand, prices may continue to climb
  • European stocks affected by geopolitical risks, may open higher but face pressure later
  • U.S. stocks sensitive to Trump's address, may fluctuate with risk sentiment
  • FX markets: USD may strengthen against safe-haven currencies (e.g., JPY, CHF)
  • Bond markets: Safe-haven demand pushes Treasury yields lower
  • Commodity markets: Natural gas prices rise on sustained supply shocks
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy adjustments
Trump's NATO remarks / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Market volatility
Energy crisis / Western recession risks / Stock market declines / Risk-off sentiment rises
Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover / Geopolitical risks intensify / Gold and USD rise
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
Reference Links
2026-04-01
Open report
Updates
  • WTI crude oil price volatility, influenced by Middle East conflict news and negotiation signals
  • Gold price as a safe-haven asset, demand increases due to uncertainty
  • EUR/USD exchange rate faces dual pressure from inflation data and geopolitical risk, may come under pressure
  • US stock market may rise on conflict easing signals, but beware of geopolitical reversal risk
  • US Dollar Index may benefit from safe-haven demand and Fed policy expectations
  • European stock markets perform weakly due to economic slowdown concerns and inflation pressure
  • Monitor oil supply disruption risks and energy price trends
Linkage
Middle East geopolitical events / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy response
NATO alliance dynamics / Geopolitical uncertainty / Safe-haven asset flows
Energy price changes / Consumer confidence and economic activity / Corporate earnings and market sentiment
Sources
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
Reference Links
2026-03-31
Open report
Updates
  • Oil price rise: WTI crude breaks above $100 per barrel; Brent crude up 58%.
  • Stock market decline: Seoul stock market opens down 2.53%; KOSPI falls below 5100 points.
  • Safe-haven asset demand: Gold price rises; US dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand.
  • Energy stock volatility: Oil companies benefit from rising oil prices, but overall stock market pressured by risk-off sentiment.
  • Korean won depreciation: Middle East tensions pressure Asian currencies.
  • Natural gas price rises 70%, affecting European energy costs.
  • Semiconductor industry affected as rising energy costs push up production costs.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation
Risk-off sentiment rises / Stock market decline / Demand for safe assets like gold and US dollar increases
G7 policy coordination / Energy intervention measures / Oil price stabilization expectations / Market sentiment eases
US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk declines / Oil supply recovery / Inflationary pressure eases
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-30
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices rise due to Strait of Hormuz closure and supply risks; monitor strait status.
  • Gold demand as safe-haven asset increases, but prices fluctuate with Fed policy impact.
  • USD may strengthen due to safe-haven demand, affecting emerging market currencies.
  • Global equities face risk-off pressure, Middle East-related sectors at high risk.
  • Silver price rebounds, diverging from gold trend, reflecting complex market sentiment.
  • Energy and defense stocks may benefit from military tensions.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Global inflation pressure
Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen / Equities under pressure
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy supply concerns / Increased safe-haven asset demand
Diplomatic mediation efforts / Tension easing / Risk sentiment improves / Market rebound
Sources
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-29
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices rise on Middle East supply risks; Brent crude may break key resistance levels.
  • Increased demand for gold as safe-haven asset sustains upward price pressure.
  • US dollar strengthens, benefiting from safe-haven inflows and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Global stock markets under pressure, especially energy-dependent economies and risk assets.
  • Bond yields may fall on safe-haven demand, but inflation expectations support long-end rates.
  • Heightened FX market volatility, with Middle Eastern and commodity currencies sensitive.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening / Market risk-off
Houthi attacks / Red Sea shipping risks / Supply-chain inflation / Safe-haven asset demand / Gold and dollar rally
Iranian nuclear threats / Geopolitical uncertainty / Increased market volatility / Risk asset sell-off
Prolonged war / Economic growth slowdown / Corporate earnings decline / Stock market correction / Rising bond demand
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-03-28
Open report
Updates
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, prices may increase.
  • Oil: Supply disruption risks, Brent crude prices bullish.
  • USD: Safe-haven currency, breaks through 160 against yen, monitor intervention and strength continuation.
  • Yen: Significant depreciation, Bank of Japan may intervene in forex market.
  • Stocks: Geopolitical risks dampen risk appetite, global equities under pressure.
  • Bonds: Safe-haven demand may push up Treasury prices, yields decline.
  • Exchange Rates: USD strengthens, impacting emerging market currencies and capital flows.
  • Commodities: Energy supply tightness, pushing up inflation expectations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Inflation pressure rises
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global shipping obstructed / Supply chain risks rise / Economic slowdown
USD / JPY breaks through 160 / Foreign exchange market volatility / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Safe-haven asset demand
Ukraine attacks Russian oil facilities / Russian exports decrease / Global oil supply tightens / Energy prices surge
Sources
Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / n-tv Politik / Tagesschau / ORF.at News
Reference Links
2026-03-27
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices face upward pressure from Strait of Hormuz supply risks; monitor Brent crude trends.
  • Gold demand as a safe-haven asset increases; prices may rise due to Middle East tensions.
  • The U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand but is constrained by U.S. political risks.
  • Global stock markets face downward pressure from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, especially in energy and defensive sectors.
  • Interest rate markets focus on the Fed's response to inflation; U.S. Treasury yields may fluctuate.
  • Foreign exchange market volatility intensifies; Middle East risks affect emerging market currencies.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation risk
Geopolitical tension escalation / Rising safe-haven sentiment / Increased gold and dollar demand / Asset price volatility
Rising oil prices / U.S. inflationary pressure / Fed rate hike expectations / Global interest rate volatility
WTO reform failure / Rising trade protectionism / Global economic growth slowdown / Declining market risk appetite
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-26
Open report
Updates
  • Oil (WTI/Brent): Volatility intensifies due to geopolitical supply risks, potentially testing above $100 per barrel.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, prices strengthen; monitor Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict developments.
  • USD: As a safe-haven currency, may appreciate against the euro and emerging market currencies.
  • Equities: Global risk sentiment shifts to risk-off, pressuring stock markets, especially energy-sensitive sectors.
  • Euro: Weakened against USD due to ECB inflation warnings.
  • Interest Rates: Rising inflation expectations push up government bond yields, increasing uncertainty over central bank policy paths.
  • Russian Ruble: Pressured by oil export disruptions; monitor sanctions and conflict developments.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalates / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Oil prices rise / Inflation risks increase
Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies / Russian energy exports受阻 / Global supply tightens / Safe-haven asset demand rises
US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Geopolitical uncertainty persists / Market sentiment risk-off / Gold and USD strengthen
Energy crisis / European inflation pressures / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Interest rates rise / Equities pressured
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-25
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: Supported by Middle East conflict and LNG supply disruptions, potentially returning above $100/barrel.
  • Gold prices: Safe-haven demand rises, supporting price increases; monitor geopolitical risk developments.
  • U.S. dollar: As a safe-haven currency, demand may increase, particularly strengthening against risk currencies.
  • Equities: Decline amid war drag and volatile trading, with global risk sentiment under pressure.
  • Renminbi: Supported by Chinese policies, but monitor external risk contagion.
  • Bonds: Safe-haven demand may push yields lower, but inflation risks limit downside.
  • Euro: Weakened by Ukraine war and energy risks.
  • Japanese yen: Safe-haven attributes may boost it, but monitor impact of Japanese Foreign Ministry warnings.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase
LNG supply disruption / Energy prices rise / Inflationary pressures increase
China special treasury bonds / Bank credit expansion / Real economy support
Geopolitical tensions / Market volatility intensifies / Equities face pressure
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
Reference Links
2026-03-24
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Oil prices plummet sharply; New York crude falls 10.28% to $88.13/barrel, Brent crude falls 10.92% to $99.94/barrel; monitor supply dynamics and IEA actions.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand may rise; Middle East tensions support gold prices, but falling oil prices could limit gains.
  • US Dollar: Demand for the safe-haven currency increases, but US policy uncertainty may affect exchange rate volatility.
  • Stocks: Global risk sentiment is under pressure; geopolitical risks suppress stock markets, while Asian markets may be supported by China's policy benefits.
  • Renminbi: China's domestic demand-boosting policies may improve economic expectations, supporting the exchange rate.
  • Interest Rates: Falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures, potentially affecting central bank rate hike expectations; monitor policy signals.
  • Bonds: Risk-off sentiment boosts demand for government bonds, but supply risks may affect the yield curve.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
IEA releases reserves / Falling oil prices / Declining inflation expectations / Central bank policy adjustments
China fiscal stimulus / Domestic demand growth / Improved economic expectations / Asian stock markets benefit
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Russian oil supply disruptions / Global energy price volatility / Risk-off sentiment heats up
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-03-23
Open report
Updates
  • Brent crude price remains high at $110/barrel; monitor Strait of Hormuz developments
  • Demand for gold as safe-haven asset rises; prices may continue to increase
  • USD strengthens due to capital flows back to US, benefiting exchange rates against other currencies
  • Global stock markets decline; Europe's DAX index down 11%, Japan's Nikkei down 9.3%
  • US Treasury yields may decline due to safe-haven demand
  • Exchange rate volatility intensifies; Middle East-related currencies like Iranian rial face pressure
  • Qatar LNG capacity loss impacts global natural gas supply, pushing up energy costs
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation and risk-off sentiment
Strait of Hormuz blockade threat / Oil price surge / Capital flows back to US
Iranian retaliatory attacks / Regional instability / Gold and USD rise
Negotiation progress uncertainty / Increased market volatility, affecting asset prices
Sources
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-22
Open report
Updates
  • Crude oil prices may rise further due to Middle East supply risks, with Brent crude bullish towards high levels.
  • Gold demand as a safe-haven asset increases, prices may break through key resistance levels.
  • U.S. dollar strengthens on risk-off sentiment but suppressed by U.S. policy contradictions, volatility rises.
  • Global stock markets face downward pressure, especially energy-intensive sectors and European indices.
  • Government bond yields may decline due to safe-haven demand, particularly U.S. and German bonds.
  • Euro against U.S. dollar may face pressure from European economic concerns and energy risks.
  • Commodities like fertilizer prices rise due to supply chain disruptions, threatening agriculture and food security.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening
Geopolitical tensions intensify / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and U.S. dollar rise / Stock markets face pressure
Energy price surge / Increased corporate costs / Economic growth slows / Risk asset sell-off
NATO internal fragmentation / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Increased market volatility
Sources
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-21
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices fluctuate due to supply disruptions and sanction relief
  • Natural gas prices surge over 30%; monitor subsequent trends and inventory data
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset rises; prices may increase further
  • US dollar strengthens, benefiting from risk-off sentiment and rate expectations
  • Global stock markets fall, led by tech stocks; Nasdaq index down 2.01%
  • Interest rate markets focus on Fed policy expectations; bond yields may rise
  • Energy sector relatively resilient, but overall market sentiment is cautious
Linkage
Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Inflation rise / Fed policy tightening
Energy facility attacks / Natural gas price surge / Increased industrial costs / Economic growth slowdown / Stock market decline
Geopolitical risk / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and US dollar rally / Global asset allocation adjustment
Sources
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
Reference Links
2026-03-20
Open report
Updates
  • Oil (WTI/Brent): Geopolitical supply disruption risk is core driver, Brent near $110/barrel. Key to watch whether U.S. sanctions policy substantively relaxes and SPR release news.
  • Natural gas (TTF/Henry Hub): Damage to Qatar LNG facilities has long-term impact (3-5 years), European gas prices face 'tsunami' risk (Putin envoy warning, RT News).
  • Gold: Geopolitical risks and nuclear concerns support safe-haven demand, but weaker U.S. dollar may limit gains. Watch for breakout above previous highs.
  • FX: U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.87% (Xinhua), EUR, GBP, and other major non-U.S. currencies appreciated. If risk aversion does not fully dominate, U.S. dollar may continue under pressure.
  • U.S. Treasuries: War financing needs may push long-term yields higher, but safe-haven demand and Fed pause support short-term bonds. Watch yield curve changes.
  • Equities: Energy sector benefits, but overall market constrained by inflation and growth concerns from high oil prices. Industries directly related to regional conflict (shipping, insurance) face rising risks.
  • Bitcoin/Cryptocurrencies: As potential safe-haven or risk assets, performance needs observation for decoupling from U.S. stocks or following gold.
Linkage
Middle East energy facilities attacked / Physical disruption of oil and gas supply / Energy prices surge / Global inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy becomes more cautious / Growth expectations downgraded
U.S. policy divergence (troop increase vs. sanction relief) / Energy supply outlook uncertainty increases / Oil price volatility rises / Inflation and growth expectations become ambiguous / Asset pricing confusion
U.S. Dollar Index sharply weakens / Capital flows to non-U.S. assets / EUR, GBP, and other currencies appreciate, emerging market capital inflow pressure eases / Global risk sentiment partially warms
Geopolitical conflict escalation / Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. dollar) and war-related assets (energy, defense stocks) attract capital / Market internal rotation accelerates
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
2026-03-19
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: WTI and Brent crude surged due to Middle East supply risks; monitor price volatility and inventory data.
  • Gold: Demand increased as a safe-haven asset, with prices rising; monitor holdings and central bank purchases.
  • US dollar: The safe-haven currency strengthened; the dollar index may rise, affecting global exchange rates.
  • US stocks: Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell; monitor sector rotation and earnings expectations.
  • Interest rates: The Fed's rate path is in focus; Treasury yields may fluctuate due to safe-haven demand.
  • Foreign exchange: CAD stable due to Bank of Canada policy; other currencies volatile amid geopolitical risks.
  • Energy sector: Energy stocks in equity markets showed relative resilience, but overall market sentiment is under pressure.
  • Safe-haven assets: Including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc; monitor capital flows.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressure
Fed rates unchanged / Market expectations met / Stable US dollar and global asset repricing
Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Increased demand for gold and US dollar / Stock markets and risk assets under pressure
Geopolitical risks / Regional security concerns / Safe-haven capital flows impact emerging markets
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-18
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices face upward risk; Brent crude may exceed $150 per barrel, even touching $200 per barrel.
  • Safe-haven assets like gold see rising demand; prices bullish, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
  • U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand but faces increased volatility from U.S.-Europe alliance risks.
  • Global stock markets under pressure; energy sector diverges, with high oil prices pushing up costs and squeezing corporate profits.
  • Bond yields rise due to inflation concerns, especially in oil-importing countries like Japan, South Korea, and European nations.
  • Foreign exchange market volatility; oil-exporting country currencies like Saudi Riyal may benefit, while importing country currencies face pressure.
  • Gold and oil-related ETFs and futures trading active; market hedging demand increases.
  • Asia-Pacific stock markets significantly impacted by oil price shocks; Japanese and South Korean indices may fall due to high energy dependency.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation surge
U.S.-Europe alliance tensions / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold and U.S. dollar strengthen
Oil price rise / Consumer country economic slowdown / Monetary policy tightening / Stock markets under pressure
Geopolitical risk escalation / Market volatility intensifies / Capital flow changes / Emerging market currency depreciation
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-17
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent crude $100.21/barrel (down 2.84%), WTI $93.50/barrel (down 5.28%); monitor Hormuz progress.
  • Stocks: Dow +0.83%, S&P +1.01%, Nasdaq +1.22%; tech stocks lead gains.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rises on geopolitical risks, but falling oil prices may cap gains.
  • USD: As a safe-haven currency, volatility depends on risk sentiment and Fed policy expectations.
  • RMB: Affected by US-China relations; consultation progress may support exchange rate.
  • Bonds: Easing inflation expectations may lower rates, but geopolitical risks support safe-haven demand.
Linkage
Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation rise
Falling oil prices / Easing inflation expectations / Risk asset rally
US-China trade consultations / Global supply chain stability / Risk sentiment improvement
China's strong economy / Global demand support / Commodities and stock markets benefit
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
Reference Links
2026-03-16
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: WTI crude briefly surpassed $100/barrel; IEA reserve release may cap gains, but Middle East risk premium persists.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices higher; monitor conflict escalation and U.S. dollar movements.
  • FX: The U.S. dollar may strengthen as a safe-haven currency, especially against emerging market currencies; the yuan may fluctuate due to U.S.-China relations.
  • Rates: Inflation expectations heat up due to rising oil prices, but risk-off sentiment may suppress long-term rates.
  • Equities: Global stock markets face pressure from geopolitical risks; energy sector may benefit from higher oil prices, but overall market sentiment is risk-off.
  • Bonds: Safe-haven demand supports government bonds, but inflation risks may limit gains.
  • Commodities: Besides oil, industrial metals may be affected by trade tensions; monitor agricultural prices for U.S.-China purchase agreements.
  • Shipping: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push up shipping costs, impacting global trade logistics.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping risks / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflationary pressure / Central bank policy adjustments
U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical pressure / Tariff and export control uncertainty / Global supply chain disruptions / Risk asset volatility and safe-haven demand
IEA petroleum reserve release / Increased market supply / Alleviates short-term oil price pressure / Lowers inflation expectations and risk premium
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Increased regional security risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar / Stock market pressure
Sources
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-15
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices face upward pressure due to rising supply disruption risks.
  • Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increases, with prices likely to strengthen.
  • The US dollar may benefit from risk-off sentiment, appreciating against riskier currencies.
  • Global stock market risk sentiment deteriorates, especially in energy-dependent economies.
  • Exchange rate volatility intensifies; monitor Middle East-related currencies like the UAE Dirham.
  • Interest rate markets may reflect inflation concerns, testing central bank policy stances.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressures
Strait of Hormuz closure / Transport disruptions / Increased demand for safe-haven assets
Geopolitical tensions / Deteriorating risk sentiment / Stock market declines and bond yield volatility
China policy stability / Regional growth expectations / Relative resilience of Asian assets
Sources
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
Reference Links
2026-03-14
Open report
Updates
  • Oil (WTI/Brent): Monitor supply disruption risks following Kharg Island attack; oil prices may test new highs.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand surges, prices may break through key resistance levels; monitor ETF inflows.
  • U.S. Dollar: Strengthens as a safe-haven currency, but U.S. policy risks may limit gains.
  • Stock Markets: Global indices under pressure, volatility increases in Middle East-related sectors like energy stocks.
  • Foreign Exchange: Middle Eastern currencies like the Iranian rial and UAE dirham under pressure; dollar appreciates against emerging market currencies.
  • Bonds: Demand for U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets increases; yields may decline.
  • Canadian Dollar: Volatility rises due to central bank interest rate decision and oil price impact.
  • Regional Stock Markets: Dubai and UAE stock markets decline due to conflict risks; monitor foreign capital outflows.
Linkage
U.S.-Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz risk / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and inflationary pressure
Middle East geopolitical tension / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the dollar / Asset price volatility
U.S. troop deployment and military action / Expanded regional instability / Global risk aversion / Stock market declines and bond market gains
Oil supply shock / Central bank policy adjustments / Interest rate and exchange rate volatility / Global market spillover effects
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
Reference Links
2026-03-13
Open report
Updates
  • Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): Watch the key psychological level of $100/barrel; any supply disruption news will stimulate prices.
  • Gold: As the ultimate safe-haven asset, prices are prone to rise as long as geopolitical risks persist.
  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Supported by safe-haven demand and the Fed's relatively hawkish stance.
  • US Treasuries: Yield curve may show complex changes due to safe-haven flows (long-end rates down) and inflation expectations (short-end rates up).
  • US Stocks: Overall pressure, but energy sector (XLE) benefits; tech growth stocks, sensitive to rates, may continue adjusting.
  • Foreign Exchange: Commodity currencies (e.g., CAD) may gain support from oil prices, but deteriorating risk sentiment could suppress their performance.
  • Volatility Index (VIX): Expected to remain at recent highs, reflecting sustained market tension.
Linkage
Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz / Sharp drop in global oil trade flow / Oil price surge / Rising global inflation expectations / Strengthened expectations of central bank policy tightening / Pressure on risk asset valuations
Escalation of US-Iran military confrontation / Rising regional full-scale war risk premium / Capital flight from risk assets like stocks / Rush into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / US dollar strengthens, gold price rises
Oil price surge / Rising corporate costs (especially transport, manufacturing) & declining consumer purchasing power / Downgraded corporate profit expectations & slowed growth expectations / Double hit to stock earnings and valuations
Persistent geopolitical uncertainty / Global capital expenditure and trade activity turn cautious / Global growth prospects dim / Cyclical assets underperform
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-03-12
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices: New York crude closed at $87.25 per barrel (up 4.55%), Brent crude closed at $91.98 per barrel (up 4.76%), driven by supply risks.
  • Safe-haven assets: Gold demand rises due to geopolitical tensions; the US dollar may strengthen on risk-off sentiment.
  • Equities: Global stock markets under pressure; risk-off sentiment leads to declines, especially in energy-intensive sectors.
  • Currencies: The US dollar may appreciate against safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc; emerging market currencies face pressure.
  • Interest rates: Rising inflation expectations may push up government bond yields; expectations of central bank policy tightening increase.
  • Commodities: Oil and gold lead gains; natural gas prices also rise due to the conflict.
  • European markets: Rising fuel prices increase cost-of-living pressures, potentially contracting consumer spending.
  • Asian markets: Rising energy import costs may affect economic growth and trade balances.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption / Reduced global oil supply / Oil price surge / Rising inflationary pressure / Central bank policy tightening / Decline in risk assets
Iranian threats and attacks / Oil supply risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Intensified stock market volatility
Global petroleum reserve releases / Increased supply / Downward pressure on oil prices / Easing of inflation expectations / Partial recovery in risk sentiment / Potential equities rebound
Escalation of trade investigations / Rising tariff risks / Slowing global trade / Growth concerns / Demand for safe-haven assets / FX market volatility
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-11
Open report
Updates
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand rising, prices may increase, driven by Middle East conflict.
  • Oil: Short-term plunge over 11%, but geopolitical risks support medium-to-long-term bullish outlook; monitor supply disruptions.
  • U.S. Dollar: Safe-haven currency attributes strengthening, may appreciate due to global uncertainty.
  • Stocks: Risk sentiment deteriorating, global stock markets under pressure, especially energy and defense sectors.
  • Bonds: Interest rates may rise due to inflation concerns, with bond yields in Canada and other countries facing upward pressure.
  • Canadian Dollar: Rate hike expectations support the exchange rate, but geopolitical risks may limit gains.
  • Euro: EU internal divisions and Eastern European risks pressure the exchange rate, leading to volatile movements.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold / U.S. dollar appreciation
Oil supply risks / Oil price volatility / Inflationary pressures
Geopolitical uncertainty / Growth concerns / Stock market declines
Rising inflation / Central bank rate hikes / Currency strengthening
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
Reference Links
2026-03-10
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent crude breaks above $100 per barrel; monitor whether it retreats to the $80-90 range due to policy interventions.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices higher; a pullback is possible if the conflict de-escalates.
  • USD: Strengthens as a safe-haven currency but may face pressure if risk sentiment improves.
  • Stocks: After the Asia-Pacific stock market plunge, monitor the opening reaction in European and US markets, with technology and energy sectors being sensitive.
  • Interest Rates: Rising inflation expectations may push up Treasury yields, but safe-haven demand could limit gains.
  • FX: Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF may benefit; commodity currencies like CAD and AUD may face pressure.
  • Bonds: Geopolitical risks increase demand for safe assets, but inflation concerns may offset some gains.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Worsening global inflation
Oil price surge / Asia-Pacific stock market plunge / Spread of risk-off sentiment / Rise in gold and USD
Trump's conciliatory remarks / Expectations for conflict end / Oil price decline / Risk asset rebound
G7 policy coordination / Increased oil supply / Oil price stabilization / Improved market sentiment
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
Reference Links
2026-03-07
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: WTI crude breaks above $90/barrel, Brent crude approaches $93/barrel; monitor Gulf supply conditions.
  • Gold: Safe-haven demand drives price increases; monitor geopolitical risk developments.
  • USD: Weak employment data may pressure it, but geopolitical risks provide support, leading to volatile movements.
  • Equities: Dow Jones falls, tech stocks pressured; risk-off sentiment dominates global indices.
  • Bonds: Rate cut expectations rise, yields may decline, but inflation risk limits downside.
  • FX: Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF may strengthen; emerging market currencies face pressure.
  • Commodities: Oil and gold lead gains; industrial metals weaken due to growth concerns.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank tightening expectations
Weak employment data / Rate cut expectations rise / USD weakens / equity volatility
Geopolitical tensions intensify / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Gold and oil prices increase
Gulf production disruption / Oil price surge / Growth concerns / Market risk sentiment deteriorates
Sources
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
Reference Links
2026-03-05
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices volatile due to geopolitical risk premium, but US Treasury Secretary downplays supply risks; Brent crude to watch the $90 level
  • Gold demand rises as a safe-haven asset, but suppressed by a stronger dollar and stock market rebound
  • US dollar index supported by geopolitical safe-haven demand and tariff expectations
  • US stocks rebound on contact rumors and economic data, Nasdaq up 1.29%, S&P 500 up 0.78%
  • Semiconductor and tech stocks perform well, Nvidia up 1.66%, AMD up 5.82%
  • Cryptocurrency-related stocks surge on Trump's support for stablecoins, Coinbase up 14.57%
  • Monitor potential rebound in South Korea's KOSPI index after yesterday's historic largest decline
  • US Treasury yields to watch the balance between safe-haven demand and inflation expectations
Linkage
US-Iran conflict escalation / Middle East oil supply risk / Oil price rise and safe-haven asset (gold, dollar) demand
Tariff hike to 15% / Increased global trade costs / Economic growth slowdown and stock market volatility
Geopolitical risk easing rumors (US-Iran contact) / Improved market sentiment / Stock market rebound and oil price adjustment
Positive economic data (US employment) / Supporting risk assets / Partially offsetting geopolitical negative impacts
Sources
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-03-04
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices surge due to supply disruption risks, with Brent crude breaking $84/barrel, up over 15%.
  • Global stock markets fall, with European indices like Germany's DAX down over 3% and the US Dow Jones down over 900 points.
  • Safe-haven assets strengthen: Gold demand rises, and the US dollar appreciates due to risk-off sentiment.
  • Natural gas prices rise 30% due to the conflict, with European TTF futures exceeding $700/1000 cubic meters.
  • Currency market volatility, with the US dollar potentially strengthening further against other currencies, impacting emerging market currencies.
  • Supertanker charter rates hit record highs, with Middle East to China reaching $400,000, reflecting surging transport costs.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Global inflationary pressure and stock market decline
Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Sell-off in risk assets
Trump's trade threats / Global trade uncertainty / Market volatility and inflows into safe-haven assets
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-03
Open report
Updates
  • Oil: Brent crude up 6.7% to $77.74/barrel, West Texas Intermediate up 6.3% to $71.23/barrel
  • Gold: Spot gold up 0.4% to $5,297.31/ounce, driven higher by safe-haven demand
  • US Dollar: Dollar Index up 1% to 98.62, strengthening against major currencies as a safe-haven currency
  • US Stocks: Dow Jones down 0.15%, Nasdaq up 0.36%, S&P 500 up 0.04%, showing market divergence
  • Defense Stocks: Northrop Grumman up 6.02%, RTX up 4.71%, Lockheed Martin up 3.37%
  • Energy Stocks: ExxonMobil up 1.13%, Chevron up 1.52%, oil and gas stocks overall strengthen
  • Travel Stocks: United Airlines down 2.91%, Delta Air Lines down 2.21%, due to oil price rise concerns
  • Natural Gas: European natural gas futures surge 40% to €44.51/MWh, with high supply disruption risk
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge / Increased inflation pressure and safe-haven sentiment rise
Iranian retaliation and US attacks / Expansion of military uncertainty / Increased safe-haven asset demand / Gold and US dollar rise
OPEC+ production increase / Increased oil supply / Potential downward pressure on oil prices / Inflation expectation moderation and market stabilization
Rising oil prices / Increased global energy costs / Impact on economic growth and corporate profits / Intensified stock market volatility
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-02
Open report
Updates
  • Oil prices expected to surge due to supply disruption.
  • Gold demand as safe-haven asset increases, prices bullish.
  • U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand.
  • Stock markets, especially global indices, face downward pressure.
  • Middle Eastern currencies like Iranian rial may depreciate.
  • U.S. Treasuries as safe assets may benefit.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Oil price increase / Inflation expectations rise
Geopolitical uncertainty / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and U.S. dollar increase
Conflict spillover to other regions / Global supply chain disruption / Stock market decline
Continued U.S. military action / Increased fiscal spending / U.S. dollar strengthens
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links