Market Watch · Themes

2026-04-01

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Updates

WTI crude oil price volatility, influenced by Middle East conflict news and negotiation signals
Gold price as a safe-haven asset, demand increases due to uncertainty
EUR/USD exchange rate faces dual pressure from inflation data and geopolitical risk, may come under pressure
US stock market may rise on conflict easing signals, but beware of geopolitical reversal risk
US Dollar Index may benefit from safe-haven demand and Fed policy expectations
European stock markets perform weakly due to economic slowdown concerns and inflation pressure
Monitor oil supply disruption risks and energy price trends

Linkage

Middle East geopolitical events / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank policy response

NATO alliance dynamics / Geopolitical uncertainty / Safe-haven asset flows

Energy price changes / Consumer confidence and economic activity / Corporate earnings and market sentiment

Sources

Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express

Reference Links

2026-03-31

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Updates

Oil price rise: WTI crude breaks above $100 per barrel; Brent crude up 58%.
Stock market decline: Seoul stock market opens down 2.53%; KOSPI falls below 5100 points.
Safe-haven asset demand: Gold price rises; US dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand.
Energy stock volatility: Oil companies benefit from rising oil prices, but overall stock market pressured by risk-off sentiment.
Korean won depreciation: Middle East tensions pressure Asian currencies.
Natural gas price rises 70%, affecting European energy costs.
Semiconductor industry affected as rising energy costs push up production costs.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Global inflation

Risk-off sentiment rises / Stock market decline / Demand for safe assets like gold and US dollar increases

G7 policy coordination / Energy intervention measures / Oil price stabilization expectations / Market sentiment eases

US-Iran negotiation progress / Geopolitical risk declines / Oil supply recovery / Inflationary pressure eases

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency [en.yna.co.kr] / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-30

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Updates

Oil prices rise due to Strait of Hormuz closure and supply risks; monitor strait status.
Gold demand as safe-haven asset increases, but prices fluctuate with Fed policy impact.
USD may strengthen due to safe-haven demand, affecting emerging market currencies.
Global equities face risk-off pressure, Middle East-related sectors at high risk.
Silver price rebounds, diverging from gold trend, reflecting complex market sentiment.
Energy and defense stocks may benefit from military tensions.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise / Global inflation pressure

Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen / Equities under pressure

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy supply concerns / Increased safe-haven asset demand

Diplomatic mediation efforts / Tension easing / Risk sentiment improves / Market rebound

Sources

Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-29

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Updates

Oil prices rise on Middle East supply risks; Brent crude may break key resistance levels.
Increased demand for gold as safe-haven asset sustains upward price pressure.
US dollar strengthens, benefiting from safe-haven inflows and geopolitical uncertainty.
Global stock markets under pressure, especially energy-dependent economies and risk assets.
Bond yields may fall on safe-haven demand, but inflation expectations support long-end rates.
Heightened FX market volatility, with Middle Eastern and commodity currencies sensitive.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening / Market risk-off

Houthi attacks / Red Sea shipping risks / Supply-chain inflation / Safe-haven asset demand / Gold and dollar rally

Iranian nuclear threats / Geopolitical uncertainty / Increased market volatility / Risk asset sell-off

Prolonged war / Economic growth slowdown / Corporate earnings decline / Stock market correction / Rising bond demand

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2

Reference Links

2026-03-28

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Updates

Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, prices may increase.
Oil: Supply disruption risks, Brent crude prices bullish.
USD: Safe-haven currency, breaks through 160 against yen, monitor intervention and strength continuation.
Yen: Significant depreciation, Bank of Japan may intervene in forex market.
Stocks: Geopolitical risks dampen risk appetite, global equities under pressure.
Bonds: Safe-haven demand may push up Treasury prices, yields decline.
Exchange Rates: USD strengthens, impacting emerging market currencies and capital flows.
Commodities: Energy supply tightness, pushing up inflation expectations.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Inflation pressure rises

Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global shipping obstructed / Supply chain risks rise / Economic slowdown

USD / JPY breaks through 160 / Foreign exchange market volatility / Global risk sentiment deteriorates / Safe-haven asset demand

Ukraine attacks Russian oil facilities / Russian exports decrease / Global oil supply tightens / Energy prices surge

Sources

Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / n-tv Politik / Tagesschau / ORF.at News

Reference Links

2026-03-27

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Updates

Oil prices face upward pressure from Strait of Hormuz supply risks; monitor Brent crude trends.
Gold demand as a safe-haven asset increases; prices may rise due to Middle East tensions.
The U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand but is constrained by U.S. political risks.
Global stock markets face downward pressure from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, especially in energy and defensive sectors.
Interest rate markets focus on the Fed's response to inflation; U.S. Treasury yields may fluctuate.
Foreign exchange market volatility intensifies; Middle East risks affect emerging market currencies.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation risk

Geopolitical tension escalation / Rising safe-haven sentiment / Increased gold and dollar demand / Asset price volatility

Rising oil prices / U.S. inflationary pressure / Fed rate hike expectations / Global interest rate volatility

WTO reform failure / Rising trade protectionism / Global economic growth slowdown / Declining market risk appetite

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-26

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Updates

Oil (WTI/Brent): Volatility intensifies due to geopolitical supply risks, potentially testing above $100 per barrel.
Gold: Safe-haven demand rises, prices strengthen; monitor Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict developments.
USD: As a safe-haven currency, may appreciate against the euro and emerging market currencies.
Equities: Global risk sentiment shifts to risk-off, pressuring stock markets, especially energy-sensitive sectors.
Euro: Weakened against USD due to ECB inflation warnings.
Interest Rates: Rising inflation expectations push up government bond yields, increasing uncertainty over central bank policy paths.
Russian Ruble: Pressured by oil export disruptions; monitor sanctions and conflict developments.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalates / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Oil prices rise / Inflation risks increase

Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies / Russian energy exports受阻 / Global supply tightens / Safe-haven asset demand rises

US-Iran negotiation deadlock / Geopolitical uncertainty persists / Market sentiment risk-off / Gold and USD strengthen

Energy crisis / European inflation pressures / Central bank policy turns hawkish / Interest rates rise / Equities pressured

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-25

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Updates

Oil prices: Supported by Middle East conflict and LNG supply disruptions, potentially returning above $100/barrel.
Gold prices: Safe-haven demand rises, supporting price increases; monitor geopolitical risk developments.
U.S. dollar: As a safe-haven currency, demand may increase, particularly strengthening against risk currencies.
Equities: Decline amid war drag and volatile trading, with global risk sentiment under pressure.
Renminbi: Supported by Chinese policies, but monitor external risk contagion.
Bonds: Safe-haven demand may push yields lower, but inflation risks limit downside.
Euro: Weakened by Ukraine war and energy risks.
Japanese yen: Safe-haven attributes may boost it, but monitor impact of Japanese Foreign Ministry warnings.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase

LNG supply disruption / Energy prices rise / Inflationary pressures increase

China special treasury bonds / Bank credit expansion / Real economy support

Geopolitical tensions / Market volatility intensifies / Equities face pressure

Sources

Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News [www.antaranews.com]

Reference Links

2026-03-24

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Updates

Oil: Oil prices plummet sharply; New York crude falls 10.28% to $88.13/barrel, Brent crude falls 10.92% to $99.94/barrel; monitor supply dynamics and IEA actions.
Gold: Safe-haven demand may rise; Middle East tensions support gold prices, but falling oil prices could limit gains.
US Dollar: Demand for the safe-haven currency increases, but US policy uncertainty may affect exchange rate volatility.
Stocks: Global risk sentiment is under pressure; geopolitical risks suppress stock markets, while Asian markets may be supported by China's policy benefits.
Renminbi: China's domestic demand-boosting policies may improve economic expectations, supporting the exchange rate.
Interest Rates: Falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures, potentially affecting central bank rate hike expectations; monitor policy signals.
Bonds: Risk-off sentiment boosts demand for government bonds, but supply risks may affect the yield curve.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Increased demand for safe-haven assets

IEA releases reserves / Falling oil prices / Declining inflation expectations / Central bank policy adjustments

China fiscal stimulus / Domestic demand growth / Improved economic expectations / Asian stock markets benefit

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Russian oil supply disruptions / Global energy price volatility / Risk-off sentiment heats up

Sources

Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East

Reference Links

2026-03-23

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Updates

Brent crude price remains high at $110/barrel; monitor Strait of Hormuz developments
Demand for gold as safe-haven asset rises; prices may continue to increase
USD strengthens due to capital flows back to US, benefiting exchange rates against other currencies
Global stock markets decline; Europe's DAX index down 11%, Japan's Nikkei down 9.3%
US Treasury yields may decline due to safe-haven demand
Exchange rate volatility intensifies; Middle East-related currencies like Iranian rial face pressure
Qatar LNG capacity loss impacts global natural gas supply, pushing up energy costs

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation and risk-off sentiment

Strait of Hormuz blockade threat / Oil price surge / Capital flows back to US

Iranian retaliatory attacks / Regional instability / Gold and USD rise

Negotiation progress uncertainty / Increased market volatility, affecting asset prices

Sources

Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-22

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Updates

Crude oil prices may rise further due to Middle East supply risks, with Brent crude bullish towards high levels.
Gold demand as a safe-haven asset increases, prices may break through key resistance levels.
U.S. dollar strengthens on risk-off sentiment but suppressed by U.S. policy contradictions, volatility rises.
Global stock markets face downward pressure, especially energy-intensive sectors and European indices.
Government bond yields may decline due to safe-haven demand, particularly U.S. and German bonds.
Euro against U.S. dollar may face pressure from European economic concerns and energy risks.
Commodities like fertilizer prices rise due to supply chain disruptions, threatening agriculture and food security.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruptions / Global inflation rise / Central bank policy tightening

Geopolitical tensions intensify / Risk-off sentiment rises / Gold and U.S. dollar rise / Stock markets face pressure

Energy price surge / Increased corporate costs / Economic growth slows / Risk asset sell-off

NATO internal fragmentation / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand / Increased market volatility

Sources

Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-21

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Updates

Oil prices fluctuate due to supply disruptions and sanction relief
Natural gas prices surge over 30%; monitor subsequent trends and inventory data
Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset rises; prices may increase further
US dollar strengthens, benefiting from risk-off sentiment and rate expectations
Global stock markets fall, led by tech stocks; Nasdaq index down 2.01%
Interest rate markets focus on Fed policy expectations; bond yields may rise
Energy sector relatively resilient, but overall market sentiment is cautious

Linkage

Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz blockade / Global oil supply disruption / Inflation rise / Fed policy tightening

Energy facility attacks / Natural gas price surge / Increased industrial costs / Economic growth slowdown / Stock market decline

Geopolitical risk / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and US dollar rally / Global asset allocation adjustment

Sources

Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International

Reference Links

2026-03-20

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Updates

Oil (WTI/Brent): Geopolitical supply disruption risk is core driver, Brent near $110/barrel. Key to watch whether U.S. sanctions policy substantively relaxes and SPR release news.
Natural gas (TTF/Henry Hub): Damage to Qatar LNG facilities has long-term impact (3-5 years), European gas prices face 'tsunami' risk (Putin envoy warning, RT News).
Gold: Geopolitical risks and nuclear concerns support safe-haven demand, but weaker U.S. dollar may limit gains. Watch for breakout above previous highs.
FX: U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.87% (Xinhua), EUR, GBP, and other major non-U.S. currencies appreciated. If risk aversion does not fully dominate, U.S. dollar may continue under pressure.
U.S. Treasuries: War financing needs may push long-term yields higher, but safe-haven demand and Fed pause support short-term bonds. Watch yield curve changes.
Equities: Energy sector benefits, but overall market constrained by inflation and growth concerns from high oil prices. Industries directly related to regional conflict (shipping, insurance) face rising risks.
Bitcoin/Cryptocurrencies: As potential safe-haven or risk assets, performance needs observation for decoupling from U.S. stocks or following gold.

Linkage

Middle East energy facilities attacked / Physical disruption of oil and gas supply / Energy prices surge / Global inflation expectations rise / Central bank policy becomes more cautious / Growth expectations downgraded

U.S. policy divergence (troop increase vs. sanction relief) / Energy supply outlook uncertainty increases / Oil price volatility rises / Inflation and growth expectations become ambiguous / Asset pricing confusion

U.S. Dollar Index sharply weakens / Capital flows to non-U.S. assets / EUR, GBP, and other currencies appreciate, emerging market capital inflow pressure eases / Global risk sentiment partially warms

Geopolitical conflict escalation / Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. dollar) and war-related assets (energy, defense stocks) attract capital / Market internal rotation accelerates

Sources

Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia

Reference Links

2026-03-19

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Updates

Oil prices: WTI and Brent crude surged due to Middle East supply risks; monitor price volatility and inventory data.
Gold: Demand increased as a safe-haven asset, with prices rising; monitor holdings and central bank purchases.
US dollar: The safe-haven currency strengthened; the dollar index may rise, affecting global exchange rates.
US stocks: Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell; monitor sector rotation and earnings expectations.
Interest rates: The Fed's rate path is in focus; Treasury yields may fluctuate due to safe-haven demand.
Foreign exchange: CAD stable due to Bank of Canada policy; other currencies volatile amid geopolitical risks.
Energy sector: Energy stocks in equity markets showed relative resilience, but overall market sentiment is under pressure.
Safe-haven assets: Including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc; monitor capital flows.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressure

Fed rates unchanged / Market expectations met / Stable US dollar and global asset repricing

Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Increased demand for gold and US dollar / Stock markets and risk assets under pressure

Geopolitical risks / Regional security concerns / Safe-haven capital flows impact emerging markets

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News

Reference Links

2026-03-18

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Updates

Oil prices face upward risk; Brent crude may exceed $150 per barrel, even touching $200 per barrel.
Safe-haven assets like gold see rising demand; prices bullish, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand but faces increased volatility from U.S.-Europe alliance risks.
Global stock markets under pressure; energy sector diverges, with high oil prices pushing up costs and squeezing corporate profits.
Bond yields rise due to inflation concerns, especially in oil-importing countries like Japan, South Korea, and European nations.
Foreign exchange market volatility; oil-exporting country currencies like Saudi Riyal may benefit, while importing country currencies face pressure.
Gold and oil-related ETFs and futures trading active; market hedging demand increases.
Asia-Pacific stock markets significantly impacted by oil price shocks; Japanese and South Korean indices may fall due to high energy dependency.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz obstruction / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation surge

U.S.-Europe alliance tensions / Global security uncertainty / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold and U.S. dollar strengthen

Oil price rise / Consumer country economic slowdown / Monetary policy tightening / Stock markets under pressure

Geopolitical risk escalation / Market volatility intensifies / Capital flow changes / Emerging market currency depreciation

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-17

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Updates

Oil: Brent crude $100.21/barrel (down 2.84%), WTI $93.50/barrel (down 5.28%); monitor Hormuz progress.
Stocks: Dow +0.83%, S&P +1.01%, Nasdaq +1.22%; tech stocks lead gains.
Gold: Safe-haven demand rises on geopolitical risks, but falling oil prices may cap gains.
USD: As a safe-haven currency, volatility depends on risk sentiment and Fed policy expectations.
RMB: Affected by US-China relations; consultation progress may support exchange rate.
Bonds: Easing inflation expectations may lower rates, but geopolitical risks support safe-haven demand.

Linkage

Middle East conflict / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Global inflation rise

Falling oil prices / Easing inflation expectations / Risk asset rally

US-China trade consultations / Global supply chain stability / Risk sentiment improvement

China's strong economy / Global demand support / Commodities and stock markets benefit

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV

Reference Links

2026-03-16

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Updates

Oil: WTI crude briefly surpassed $100/barrel; IEA reserve release may cap gains, but Middle East risk premium persists.
Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices higher; monitor conflict escalation and U.S. dollar movements.
FX: The U.S. dollar may strengthen as a safe-haven currency, especially against emerging market currencies; the yuan may fluctuate due to U.S.-China relations.
Rates: Inflation expectations heat up due to rising oil prices, but risk-off sentiment may suppress long-term rates.
Equities: Global stock markets face pressure from geopolitical risks; energy sector may benefit from higher oil prices, but overall market sentiment is risk-off.
Bonds: Safe-haven demand supports government bonds, but inflation risks may limit gains.
Commodities: Besides oil, industrial metals may be affected by trade tensions; monitor agricultural prices for U.S.-China purchase agreements.
Shipping: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push up shipping costs, impacting global trade logistics.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping risks / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and global inflationary pressure / Central bank policy adjustments

U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical pressure / Tariff and export control uncertainty / Global supply chain disruptions / Risk asset volatility and safe-haven demand

IEA petroleum reserve release / Increased market supply / Alleviates short-term oil price pressure / Lowers inflation expectations and risk premium

Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Increased regional security risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and U.S. dollar / Stock market pressure

Sources

China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-15

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Updates

Oil prices face upward pressure due to rising supply disruption risks.
Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset increases, with prices likely to strengthen.
The US dollar may benefit from risk-off sentiment, appreciating against riskier currencies.
Global stock market risk sentiment deteriorates, especially in energy-dependent economies.
Exchange rate volatility intensifies; monitor Middle East-related currencies like the UAE Dirham.
Interest rate markets may reflect inflation concerns, testing central bank policy stances.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risks / Rising oil prices / Global inflationary pressures

Strait of Hormuz closure / Transport disruptions / Increased demand for safe-haven assets

Geopolitical tensions / Deteriorating risk sentiment / Stock market declines and bond yield volatility

China policy stability / Regional growth expectations / Relative resilience of Asian assets

Sources

China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News

Reference Links

2026-03-14

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Updates

Oil (WTI/Brent): Monitor supply disruption risks following Kharg Island attack; oil prices may test new highs.
Gold: Safe-haven demand surges, prices may break through key resistance levels; monitor ETF inflows.
U.S. Dollar: Strengthens as a safe-haven currency, but U.S. policy risks may limit gains.
Stock Markets: Global indices under pressure, volatility increases in Middle East-related sectors like energy stocks.
Foreign Exchange: Middle Eastern currencies like the Iranian rial and UAE dirham under pressure; dollar appreciates against emerging market currencies.
Bonds: Demand for U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets increases; yields may decline.
Canadian Dollar: Volatility rises due to central bank interest rate decision and oil price impact.
Regional Stock Markets: Dubai and UAE stock markets decline due to conflict risks; monitor foreign capital outflows.

Linkage

U.S.-Iran conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz risk / Oil supply disruption / Rising oil prices and inflationary pressure

Middle East geopolitical tension / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the dollar / Asset price volatility

U.S. troop deployment and military action / Expanded regional instability / Global risk aversion / Stock market declines and bond market gains

Oil supply shock / Central bank policy adjustments / Interest rate and exchange rate volatility / Global market spillover effects

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News

Reference Links

2026-03-13

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Updates

Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): Watch the key psychological level of $100/barrel; any supply disruption news will stimulate prices.
Gold: As the ultimate safe-haven asset, prices are prone to rise as long as geopolitical risks persist.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Supported by safe-haven demand and the Fed's relatively hawkish stance.
US Treasuries: Yield curve may show complex changes due to safe-haven flows (long-end rates down) and inflation expectations (short-end rates up).
US Stocks: Overall pressure, but energy sector (XLE) benefits; tech growth stocks, sensitive to rates, may continue adjusting.
Foreign Exchange: Commodity currencies (e.g., CAD) may gain support from oil prices, but deteriorating risk sentiment could suppress their performance.
Volatility Index (VIX): Expected to remain at recent highs, reflecting sustained market tension.

Linkage

Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz / Sharp drop in global oil trade flow / Oil price surge / Rising global inflation expectations / Strengthened expectations of central bank policy tightening / Pressure on risk asset valuations

Escalation of US-Iran military confrontation / Rising regional full-scale war risk premium / Capital flight from risk assets like stocks / Rush into US dollar, US Treasuries, gold / US dollar strengthens, gold price rises

Oil price surge / Rising corporate costs (especially transport, manufacturing) & declining consumer purchasing power / Downgraded corporate profit expectations & slowed growth expectations / Double hit to stock earnings and valuations

Persistent geopolitical uncertainty / Global capital expenditure and trade activity turn cautious / Global growth prospects dim / Cyclical assets underperform

Sources

China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East

Reference Links

2026-03-12

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Updates

Oil prices: New York crude closed at $87.25 per barrel (up 4.55%), Brent crude closed at $91.98 per barrel (up 4.76%), driven by supply risks.
Safe-haven assets: Gold demand rises due to geopolitical tensions; the US dollar may strengthen on risk-off sentiment.
Equities: Global stock markets under pressure; risk-off sentiment leads to declines, especially in energy-intensive sectors.
Currencies: The US dollar may appreciate against safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc; emerging market currencies face pressure.
Interest rates: Rising inflation expectations may push up government bond yields; expectations of central bank policy tightening increase.
Commodities: Oil and gold lead gains; natural gas prices also rise due to the conflict.
European markets: Rising fuel prices increase cost-of-living pressures, potentially contracting consumer spending.
Asian markets: Rising energy import costs may affect economic growth and trade balances.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption / Reduced global oil supply / Oil price surge / Rising inflationary pressure / Central bank policy tightening / Decline in risk assets

Iranian threats and attacks / Oil supply risks / Rising risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Intensified stock market volatility

Global petroleum reserve releases / Increased supply / Downward pressure on oil prices / Easing of inflation expectations / Partial recovery in risk sentiment / Potential equities rebound

Escalation of trade investigations / Rising tariff risks / Slowing global trade / Growth concerns / Demand for safe-haven assets / FX market volatility

Sources

Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform

Reference Links

2026-03-11

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Updates

Gold: Safe-haven demand rising, prices may increase, driven by Middle East conflict.
Oil: Short-term plunge over 11%, but geopolitical risks support medium-to-long-term bullish outlook; monitor supply disruptions.
U.S. Dollar: Safe-haven currency attributes strengthening, may appreciate due to global uncertainty.
Stocks: Risk sentiment deteriorating, global stock markets under pressure, especially energy and defense sectors.
Bonds: Interest rates may rise due to inflation concerns, with bond yields in Canada and other countries facing upward pressure.
Canadian Dollar: Rate hike expectations support the exchange rate, but geopolitical risks may limit gains.
Euro: EU internal divisions and Eastern European risks pressure the exchange rate, leading to volatile movements.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Safe-haven demand / Gold / U.S. dollar appreciation

Oil supply risks / Oil price volatility / Inflationary pressures

Geopolitical uncertainty / Growth concerns / Stock market declines

Rising inflation / Central bank rate hikes / Currency strengthening

Sources

Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News

Reference Links

2026-03-10

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Updates

Oil: Brent crude breaks above $100 per barrel; monitor whether it retreats to the $80-90 range due to policy interventions.
Gold: Safe-haven demand pushes gold prices higher; a pullback is possible if the conflict de-escalates.
USD: Strengthens as a safe-haven currency but may face pressure if risk sentiment improves.
Stocks: After the Asia-Pacific stock market plunge, monitor the opening reaction in European and US markets, with technology and energy sectors being sensitive.
Interest Rates: Rising inflation expectations may push up Treasury yields, but safe-haven demand could limit gains.
FX: Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF may benefit; commodity currencies like CAD and AUD may face pressure.
Bonds: Geopolitical risks increase demand for safe assets, but inflation concerns may offset some gains.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Global oil supply disruption / Oil price surge / Worsening global inflation

Oil price surge / Asia-Pacific stock market plunge / Spread of risk-off sentiment / Rise in gold and USD

Trump's conciliatory remarks / Expectations for conflict end / Oil price decline / Risk asset rebound

G7 policy coordination / Increased oil supply / Oil price stabilization / Improved market sentiment

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service

Reference Links

2026-03-07

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Updates

Oil: WTI crude breaks above $90/barrel, Brent crude approaches $93/barrel; monitor Gulf supply conditions.
Gold: Safe-haven demand drives price increases; monitor geopolitical risk developments.
USD: Weak employment data may pressure it, but geopolitical risks provide support, leading to volatile movements.
Equities: Dow Jones falls, tech stocks pressured; risk-off sentiment dominates global indices.
Bonds: Rate cut expectations rise, yields may decline, but inflation risk limits downside.
FX: Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF may strengthen; emerging market currencies face pressure.
Commodities: Oil and gold lead gains; industrial metals weaken due to growth concerns.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Global inflation pressure / Central bank tightening expectations

Weak employment data / Rate cut expectations rise / USD weakens / equity volatility

Geopolitical tensions intensify / Safe-haven asset demand rises / Gold and oil prices increase

Gulf production disruption / Oil price surge / Growth concerns / Market risk sentiment deteriorates

Sources

Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance

Reference Links

2026-03-05

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Updates

Oil prices volatile due to geopolitical risk premium, but US Treasury Secretary downplays supply risks; Brent crude to watch the $90 level
Gold demand rises as a safe-haven asset, but suppressed by a stronger dollar and stock market rebound
US dollar index supported by geopolitical safe-haven demand and tariff expectations
US stocks rebound on contact rumors and economic data, Nasdaq up 1.29%, S&P 500 up 0.78%
Semiconductor and tech stocks perform well, Nvidia up 1.66%, AMD up 5.82%
Cryptocurrency-related stocks surge on Trump's support for stablecoins, Coinbase up 14.57%
Monitor potential rebound in South Korea's KOSPI index after yesterday's historic largest decline
US Treasury yields to watch the balance between safe-haven demand and inflation expectations

Linkage

US-Iran conflict escalation / Middle East oil supply risk / Oil price rise and safe-haven asset (gold, dollar) demand

Tariff hike to 15% / Increased global trade costs / Economic growth slowdown and stock market volatility

Geopolitical risk easing rumors (US-Iran contact) / Improved market sentiment / Stock market rebound and oil price adjustment

Positive economic data (US employment) / Supporting risk assets / Partially offsetting geopolitical negative impacts

Sources

The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India [timesofindia.indiatimes.com] / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)

Reference Links

2026-03-04

Open report

Updates

Oil prices surge due to supply disruption risks, with Brent crude breaking $84/barrel, up over 15%.
Global stock markets fall, with European indices like Germany's DAX down over 3% and the US Dow Jones down over 900 points.
Safe-haven assets strengthen: Gold demand rises, and the US dollar appreciates due to risk-off sentiment.
Natural gas prices rise 30% due to the conflict, with European TTF futures exceeding $700/1000 cubic meters.
Currency market volatility, with the US dollar potentially strengthening further against other currencies, impacting emerging market currencies.
Supertanker charter rates hit record highs, with Middle East to China reaching $400,000, reflecting surging transport costs.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase / Global inflationary pressure and stock market decline

Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar / Sell-off in risk assets

Trump's trade threats / Global trade uncertainty / Market volatility and inflows into safe-haven assets

Sources

Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)

Reference Links

2026-03-03

Open report

Updates

Oil: Brent crude up 6.7% to $77.74/barrel, West Texas Intermediate up 6.3% to $71.23/barrel
Gold: Spot gold up 0.4% to $5,297.31/ounce, driven higher by safe-haven demand
US Dollar: Dollar Index up 1% to 98.62, strengthening against major currencies as a safe-haven currency
US Stocks: Dow Jones down 0.15%, Nasdaq up 0.36%, S&P 500 up 0.04%, showing market divergence
Defense Stocks: Northrop Grumman up 6.02%, RTX up 4.71%, Lockheed Martin up 3.37%
Energy Stocks: ExxonMobil up 1.13%, Chevron up 1.52%, oil and gas stocks overall strengthen
Travel Stocks: United Airlines down 2.91%, Delta Air Lines down 2.21%, due to oil price rise concerns
Natural Gas: European natural gas futures surge 40% to €44.51/MWh, with high supply disruption risk

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge / Increased inflation pressure and safe-haven sentiment rise

Iranian retaliation and US attacks / Expansion of military uncertainty / Increased safe-haven asset demand / Gold and US dollar rise

OPEC+ production increase / Increased oil supply / Potential downward pressure on oil prices / Inflation expectation moderation and market stabilization

Rising oil prices / Increased global energy costs / Impact on economic growth and corporate profits / Intensified stock market volatility

Sources

Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News

Reference Links

2026-03-02

Open report

Updates

Oil prices expected to surge due to supply disruption.
Gold demand as safe-haven asset increases, prices bullish.
U.S. dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand.
Stock markets, especially global indices, face downward pressure.
Middle Eastern currencies like Iranian rial may depreciate.
U.S. Treasuries as safe assets may benefit.

Linkage

Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply risk / Oil price increase / Inflation expectations rise

Geopolitical uncertainty / Risk-off sentiment / Gold and U.S. dollar increase

Conflict spillover to other regions / Global supply chain disruption / Stock market decline

Continued U.S. military action / Increased fiscal spending / U.S. dollar strengthens

Sources

Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com]

Reference Links

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Coverage Gaps