信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-05-17
来源数
80
大陆
3
港澳台
0
海外
77
官媒/官方
6
非官媒
74
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
78
中文覆盖
3
英文覆盖
37
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Australia / Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体Le Monde International · 海外 / 媒体The New York Times · 海外 / 媒体Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体n-tv Politik · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合Die Zeit Politics · 海外 / 媒体The New Indian Express · 海外 / 媒体SOL · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #3 · 海外 / 媒体9News Australia · 海外 / 媒体
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 77 个，大陆信源 3 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 37 个，中文信源 3 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: SC原油 / AU黄金 / FU燃油
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 18 / 待复核 18
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SC 5y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 3y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-05-17
2026-05-17
进展要点
- 伊朗霍尔木兹海峡收费计划可能引发军事对峙，封锁风险上升。
- 台湾独立言论增加台海冲突可能性，中国可能采取反制措施。
- 俄罗斯对乌克兰大规模无人机袭击可能引发北约进一步介入。
- 以色列违反停火攻击黎巴嫩，中东停火协议濒临破裂。
- 哈马斯军事领导人被击毙，加沙报复性攻击风险增加。
- 美国众议院未能通过结束伊朗战争决议，战争持续消耗资源。
关联路径
伊朗海峡收费 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价暴涨 / 全球通胀预期回升
台湾独立言论 / 中美对峙升级 / 地缘风险溢价 / 新兴市场资本外流
俄油制裁恢复 / 供应收紧 / 能源价格上行 / 欧洲经济压力
多线冲突 / 避险情绪 / 资金流入黄金美元 / 权益债券波动
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / The New York Times / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / The New Indian Express / SOL / France 24 #3 / 9News Australia / ERTnews / BBC News (Top) / Politika / El Mundo - International News / Yonhap News Agency BIZ / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / La Croix / La Tribune
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/17/iran-war-live-tehran-eyes-tolls-in-hormuz-trump-warns-of-very-bad-time?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/05/16/taiwan-revendique-son-independance-apres-une-mise-en-garde-de-donald-trump_6689757_3210.html
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/economy/china-tariffs-trump-summit.html
- [4] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/trump-zu-waffenverkauf-an-taiwan-gutes-druckmittel-fuer-usa-50646913
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260517081519Kel
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Sanktionen-gegen-russisches-Oel-greifen-wieder-id30828365.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxOaTducmtkWk5TSUMzWHdKTmNsRkU3RnFDanVwaVUzTWVXY1d6YVhLYmpURjQ4MmZlVFJFTTRveEFvVnhlYUtVOFlCYVJDWFozX0VfTGtZSWlKanAwVU5uWUwzUXVOUXJZRGVza2hHdDF3VE5uT09KM0stcmFxWHhpbE5jOElXcUI2WjZOcndSUl9WdHVxMWF6YllFZF9JYlZyVUVjRjJXYWVwQlJvTWJYRFdJT2l4N0s3bV9lWTF0S2JEakJhWjJrc0QwMnpaWXVyanc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/israel-angriffe-libanon-sueden
- [9] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/16/uss-ford-returns-home-after-11-month-deployment-supporting-iran-war-and-maduros-capture
- [10] https://sol.iol.pt/opiniao/noticias/marco-serronha-a-guerra-do-golfo-de-2026-algumas-observacoes-estrategicas-e-geopoliticas-tempos-de-preocupacao-e-algumas-muitas-ilusoes-parte-1/20260516/6a0760770cf2d0ed34b846a1
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260516-mort-chef-branche-arm%C3%A9e-hamas-tu%C3%A9-par-frappe-isra%C3%A9lienne-ezzedine-al-haddad
- [12] https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-war-vote-congress-house-of-representatives-senate-usa-politics-news/a816e23a-d2e8-479d-8bf0-a4076caf9588
- [13] https://www.ertnews.gr/eidiseis/diethni/live-to-iran-tha-perasei-poly-dyskola-an-den-yparksei-symfonia-proeidopoiei-o-tramp
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2132w81jqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/755676/sad-nisu-produzile-uredbu-o-izuzecu-za-kupovinu-ruske-nafte
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/16/6a086573e4d4d885558b4580.html
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/k-biz/news
- [18] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260515000200880
- [19] https://www.la-croix.com/international/sommet-a-pekin-donald-trump-met-en-garde-taiwan-contre-toute-proclamation-d-independance-20260515
- [20] https://www.latribune.fr/article/transports/1686023441399214/liran-fait-etat-de-discussions-avec-des-pays-europeens-pour-franchir-le-detroit-dormuz
- [21] https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/taiwan/4223757-20260516-chine-taiwan-affirme-etre-nation-independante-subordonnee-malgre-critiques-trump?at_medium=display&at_campaign=149
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/16/taiwan-says-it-is-an-independent-nation-after-trump-arms-sale-remarks?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-apr%C3%A8s-la-mise-en-garde-de-trump-ta%C3%AFwan-rappelle-washington-%C3%A0-son-engagement-sur-les-ventes-d-armes
- [24] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260516-le-chef-de-la-branche-arm%C3%A9e-du-hamas-tu%C3%A9-%C3%A0-gaza
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/in-response-to-trump-taiwan-says-it-is-sovereign-and-independent?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE82V2RmaV9VT005Qk15ZWVIZ25yVmRHUXVFWS0weUVoSHZJc2pfQjZwT1N0R283VzU2SjZKY2pvNExRVmNxT3R3ZWtXcGxzMW1MQ2FtbFczdEQ4UWQyQnRKaXB6a25RWTR2M3hTaV94Y1Y?oc=5
- [27] https://www.la-croix.com/international/direct-guerre-iran-israel-usa-jour-78-moyen-orient-bilan-resume-aujourdhui-20260516
- [28] https://sol.iol.pt/internacional/noticias/medio-oriente-estreito-de-ormuz-sob-tensao-enquanto-paises-europeus-tentam-negociar-com-o-irao/20260516/6a08a0bc0cf27f6588a6a9d7
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
进展要点
- 中美因台湾问题关系恶化风险，特朗普暗示调整军售政策可能引发中方强烈反应。
- 美伊军事冲突风险上升：美国拒绝停战方案、特朗普威胁摧毁伊朗基础设施。
- 以色列与哈马斯冲突加剧，加沙局势升级可能波及更广泛地区。
- 俄乌战事扩大：俄军猛轰基辅，泽连斯基指控俄计划攻击北约国家。
- 霍尔木兹海峡危机持续，英国警告全球供应链挑战。
- 习近平9月访美前，中美关系或面临更多博弈。
关联路径
US-China tension / safe-haven demand / USD / Gold up, equities down
US-Iran conflict / Oil supply risk / risk-off flows
Russia-Ukraine escalation / safe-haven demand / Gold / rates rally
Strait crisis / energy disruption / global recession fears
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260516083028hzn
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-16/10622124.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-haddad-hamas.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5HRjZxVTlZdTJNaGpKMWtMREpUeUtlWmVyYmQ4d0pEREdJN3pOdjdMZmJoT29SdWc2ZmowekRlVDlmaGpfRWlHZFdkc1hkX3BjYXBnelZn?oc=5
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260515-trump-xi-carry-on-westminster-the-french-pivot
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-triggered-challenges-across-the-world-uk-statement-at-the-un-economic-and-social-council
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/640055-xi-trump-results-summit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-made-no-commitment-141341009.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/5/15/is-the-us-dialling-down-its-support-for-taiwan?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/death-toll-in-attack-on-kyiv-apartment-building-rises-may-15-2026/article70984671.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-iran-war-set-to-halve-growth-in-second-quarter/live-77168830?maca=en-rss-en-ger-1023-rdf
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515009551315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/will-make-decision-on-lifting-sanctions-on-chinese-firms-buying-iran-oil-trump/article70984451.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/xi-to-visit-us-on-september-24-at-trumps-invitation-china-says/articleshow/131121278.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605160830433MA
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBzRmtDckNTcWFyTER5RmVXWUd4TFdXLVBLLU00NnYyZFByNTgwcGVCcjFfS2ZSRDBOR2tpeFBpM2ljaUlTdGtNNnMzRE4xSHFzdjBrbGgtTDZKTzFuOWRfaEpkYnkzdXRwZjFKRy1ZMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNTGNXUWxwbG5FZ0kzQkdWTE9mQlNIaG1EckxUOVFfeVhkbkhXR09HdFFDNU9FTlNtT194emVtWUhQWTB4MVJMQ1RGcXRVTFRKRFNZZmtJTjFlQnBQZnFUR3VPZmhqdTRyanJQYnRweDYwUk1laHVCbXRnUjl0UUlqbmM5UzEtYkpwWTlJZFk5Y0ExQS15V0ZzUUdaMXZsYlBnc3Jrbkx5bEVYTWFzSVp2bWtnOVZZQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260515-chine-apr%C3%A8s-rencontre-avec-xi-trump-met-en-garde-ta%C3%AFwan-contre-toute-proclamation-ind%C3%A9pendance
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/zelenskyy-vows-response-after-russian-strike-kills-24-in-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/russia-pounds-kyiv-as-its-war-machine-grinds-to-a-near-standstill?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/asia/trump-china-arms-sales.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/europe/trump-xi-china-summit.html
2026-05-15
2026-05-15
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻风险：船只劫持、军事任务部署、伊朗选择性通行政策。
- 伊朗与以色列、沙特多线冲突升级（真主党打击以色列、沙特秘密袭击伊朗）。
- 台湾问题：中方警告冲突可能，美中缺乏沟通机制。
- 耶路撒冷日强闯阿克萨清真寺可能引发巴以新一轮冲突。
- 美中科技脱钩加速，出口管制与AI竞争风险。
- 中东战争外溢至能源市场与全球航运。
关联路径
伊朗霍尔木兹封锁风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难 / 避险
特习峰会无贸易协议 / 风险情绪下行 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场承压
台湾冲突警告 / 地缘溢价 / 半导体供应链中断风险 / 科技股抛售
美联储换帅 / 货币政策路径不确定性 / 利率波动 / 套利交易平仓
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yonhap News Agency / France 24 #3 / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / UK Ministry of Defence / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/15/iran-war-live-trumps-visit-to-china-shadowed-by-conflict-with-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-permits-30-vessels-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz-overnight-lebanon-strikes-israel-top-developments/articleshow/131105399.cms
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260515000800315
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260514-kevin-warsh-confirm%C3%A9-%C3%A0-la-t%C3%AAte-de-la-fed
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypj01189lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-xi-promises-not-to-give-iran-arms-trump-says
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPVXJSWmJiMV9CLUM2SURhbHFRVm1DeVE4NjBCY0E5azNhSDNSZXh6RnJORFVNbWpSOUdhdlhVSGNqM0s4a3F6SGFWWkR2aDZRd0ozTXBYYzZYODhVWnNyRGo0c09YTE81OVpUNHQ4cHFNNUFSTkV1ZmJlaGh2MnE3TzZwWlFvX3A1dndjVWNCMEd2YU9lSmV4eTlsSDFIYTcwUm8xOVl2VE9zRTNNTE02RkVzTmlmUlM3bVNQQUlubGFaa0RJc2c?oc=5
- [8] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-the-multinational-military-mission-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-12-may-2026
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/iran-strait-hormuz-china-ships.html
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/as--china-trump-000017487.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260514-trump-xi-d-%C3%A9gal-%C3%A0-%C3%A9gal
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/during-trumps-china-visit-anthropic-just-reminded-america-why-it-should-not-sell-top-end-nvidia-chips-to-china-since-most-/articleshow/131102724.cms
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-tests-post-intervention-low-as-iran-war-us-rate-uncertainty-lift-dollar
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/5/14/aje-onl-chn_trumpvisit2026_av_v2-140526?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-xi-offered-help-to-open-hormuz-vowed-not-to-arm-iran
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPOEZTX2ZkbVUwMGszck1IeUFkSE9VMmh3RXBoRzdjeG9HSTYwdGZidWYyQVlYTDJsTWdXd0xfLTNSdFVOekdwZW5ZZmdBWmlRWkJINTM5MjdUZ19SOGhMSUxHWVRESC1taUVqWDFhZlBnbk1SN0J6aF9UbEJydVVTM3R3bFplS1Nvc0sxMlBvMjQ?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/14/israels-ben-gvir-storms-al-aqsa-during-jerusalem-day-march?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-says-xi-vowed-not-to-arm-iran-offered-help-to-open-hormuz/articleshow/131098611.cms
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPZ3F4RDFfMWRrb1RYQUZiNjRhSk9DZXc3MkFKSjRlck9XamJDYnZFREtrLWdtd21ReW9sckNvWThielVnYnAwbG5HUDlIRDNVRnJWT09zTHg2WDVLQTJxekowMWFSdEhvblluMHdub05CUzkzQnBROTZkZDMxVV9raHgzMWNqRjFCbEhiSC1zSDdkb0paN1paZTV0OFfSAaIBQVVfeXFMUFZ1ZEpKM19xclBhQjVTSmlJVlAyUG14c1ZrY3dVOXlFWWtRYkdxX3BGQlhsUjI0N1pDZUE1QnRGeE43WUthQWkzdExSNkVUakd1dUJ6dndMSGdVV2V3LTBRckx3WERFSHVmbVBGNF90dGE0WWVhU2FrTjdKX0M2S2Q1ZTE0UEVneklPWWZjbUU0eEFvdGNjLTcyZ0NBeWczZzVB?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/us/politics/china-us-sanctions-ai-cybersecurity.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-uae-iran-attacks.html
2026-05-14
2026-05-14
进展要点
- 美以与伊朗冲突延续，战争成本持续上升，霍尔木兹海峡航运风险。
- 以色列秘密扩大多国反伊联盟，中东冲突外溢风险。
- 特朗普-习近平峰会缺乏共识，台湾或伊朗议题可能引发新摩擦。
- 中国在峰会中立场强硬，若美方让步不足，贸易战可能升级。
- 以色列袭击黎巴嫩南部导致平民伤亡，黎以停火协议脆弱。
- 沙特秘密打击伊朗，中东阵营对立加剧。
关联路径
美联储主席变更 / 政策不确定性 / 美元 / 美债波动 / 全球资产重定价
中美峰会结果 / 贸易前景 / 风险偏好 / 股市 / 商品
中东冲突升级 / 石油供给风险 / 通胀预期 / 央行政策约束
印度提高黄金关税 / 全球实物黄金需求下降 / 金价承压
来源
France 24 #2 / Times of India / The New York Times / Nikkei Asia / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260513-senate-confirms-trump-pick-kevin-warsh-as-federal-reserve-chair
- [2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-ally-kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-next-us-federal-reserve-chair-after-tight-senate-vote/articleshow/131076625.cms
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-confirmed.html
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/trump-xi-summit/trump-xi-summit-live-presidents-set-to-kick-off-crucial-meeting
- [5] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260514000900315
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639955-pentagon-revises-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2gFBVV95cUxPWkJfX2lCWUg1YjR3aktOUUU4ajlIa0xDbGxDMWlJbHh0ZzZjLW9RZUJMcXdNRFlTbEUxZVVWWjNHRHJxNkNFVEhPQmFTeFI3S2QzN3BGdTlPYWkwWW1ZWURuRjg5d2RQTEx0aDY5RG05OGdqTXNqV3ZEZkY1eklEbHJlb2pYTUkxdXp1aDdHQTNub2RBejU1UzF3SUhGSWlqUWR3TkEtWjZaM25vbVd2OWREM0NTeXh3OWlDZ291bWloSWpFN2ExTnRGZWxHZVczV2lMN2pLZW9sQQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8p71p4nezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-holds-decline-jump-us-060857543.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/netanyahu-visited-uae-in-secret-during-us-israel-war-on-iran-office-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-hikes-duty-on-gold-silver-from-6-to-15-in-bid-to-lower-demand/articleshow/131079515.cms
- [12] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260513-%C3%A9tats-unis-s%C3%A9nat-valide-nomination-kevin-warsh-t%C3%AAte-fed-reserve-federale-trump
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/asia/xi-trump-china-us-taiwan-iran.html
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/trade-tech-and-rare-earths-to-dominate-trump-s-china-trip
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/briefing/trump-china-meeting-fed-chair.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/639954-netanyahu-secret-uae-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/639942-saudi-covert-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/13/kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-new-us-federal-reserve-chair-amid-controversy?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPZHBka0lybnhwRXkzY1pwOWpFSnN5Njd0RnFpNlg0ZlRYN1lqY3FFZ1dFOXJQUTBKczZITllGdU1TU01iMGNIWnNfYXVBeFVNZnVlaE02Wkd6T2lFTUo2VXBzeDBZVVAxNVZKUC1OZG9LUFVaQmMyR1dhaTMxYi1KZ0owc3JpNkhXYkUyY2xQaUcyNmI5YlU4U3FCVU9aNFk5SzJueFAwd3VNU0xOTmtXWHlNNTdxUW0wMGFtRnBaMmRTc0haakpTd25B?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/13/trump-xi-summit-chinas-help-in-iran-may-require-us-concessions?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-xi-set-to-talk-trade-after-30-drop-during-tariff-war
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPLXI4dThVYmpObHQwS1B6bk9vNmFEX0dxbldUbWNqYUhxSUJzaTV5LTFvcFJGR1JuUm13dWJUZE0tZHVZOXY4VkMzUjZCNFA4OWx2UERXeldBNXNoWUktWUFLOUdpMzhja3JOZ0hhbVoyTzB0ZmZMQlV3MXBUc1UyUWJSdXN2UlNmRDZDMQ?oc=5
2026-05-13
2026-05-13
进展要点
- 美伊停火破裂导致霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁，全球石油供应中断风险
- 伊朗威胁“教训”美国，双方军事冲突可能升级为地区全面战争
- 俄罗斯萨尔马特导弹部署，核威慑态势加剧，北约与俄罗斯紧张升级
- 俄货船疑载核反应器运往朝鲜，核扩散与制裁违规风险暴露
- 中美峰会期间伊朗问题分歧可能导致谈判破裂，引发额外制裁或军事回应
- 以色列对黎巴嫩持续袭击已造成重大伤亡，可能开辟第二条战线
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 通胀上升 / 央行收紧预期 / 风险资产下跌
美伊停火破裂 / 军事升级 / 油价飙升 / 全球衰退担忧 / 避险资产流入
中美峰会结果 / 贸易政策预期 / 风险情绪波动 / 美元 / 新兴市场货币双向波动
俄罗斯核威慑 / 欧洲安全紧张 / 资金流向避险资产 / 黄金 / 美债受益
来源
Xinhua World / IRIS - Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques / BBC News (Business) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Kremlin President News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.iris-france.org/les-chaines-dapprovisionnement-petrolieres-asiatiques-perturbees-par-le-blocus-du-detroit-dormuz-perspectives-pour-linde-le-japon-et-la-coree-du-sud
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c202pgxx89lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-faces-rising-costs-with-iran-war-driving-energy-prices-inflation-higher?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260513/c04811ca4c6a4d49abe7cdffeca2c363/c.html
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/639918-turning-point-in-post-cold-war-order/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-berufungsgericht-laesst-donald-trumps-zehn-prozent-zoll-vorerst-bestehen-a-0e854705-6afa-4fbb-9f55-dfb8f923ef7f
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260512-iran-us-peace-plan-middle-east-truce-failure
- [8] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/briefing/iran-war-costs-inflation.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOVHIyMlF1Rk1fUk9rY3JiNVh0LUVBUlhlX0dtQk5OSjUwcVFPVXJUbWdSRkpwa25iZ1lRSVcxbFNraGM2RWFsdXJJVEhHeTBPU21WckJFOFdSWHVMZ21pdS1Sc1NiWHZ5TXExWnN2Vy16eUVwcUNsdnZpWUtveUg4eVBrMnNBcjg3QU5sbHY1b2tza21pQkg0?oc=5
- [10] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/iran-kharg-island-oil-shipments-174555890.html
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-china-visit-xi-jinping-meeting-us-china-trade-negotiations/article70971552.ece
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260512011352315
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-cpi-climbs-38-in-april-as-oil-prices-and-energy-costs-fuel-inflation/article70971393.ece
- [14] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79724
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/7dd5a996fb1a4b938d278e287586e4c7/c.html
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260512/aa49121bccfb49a08819de9df26fb8d6/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/13/iran-war-live-trump-travels-to-china-as-conflict-with-tehran-looms-large?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/12/us-court-pauses-decision-blocking-trumps-10-percent-global-tariff?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20260512-iran-tensions-commerciales-ta%C3%AFwan-donald-trump-chine-pour-visite-majeure
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260512-japanese-crisp-bags-turn-black-and-white-due-to-iran-war
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/russland-testet-sarmat-interkontinentalrakete-laut-wladimir-putin-erfolgreich-a-129038fc-f885-400f-a2c4-d08eb689345d
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/trump-xi-summit.html
- [23] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-war-cost-hegseth-congress.html
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/639893-us-iran-could-renew-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObTF3M0FrTkx0dDl4bjA2QzFvZUNQV2JXdWVBNWduSG1nTmVMR2pPdE9wN2F3WnVWaTJtZzd4Nzg1ODN3RmZPSzhjaktQalhUY0l1S2tNSVdlVk5NRzh3M0pvT3Rjbnk3V0h1ZTFYbTdZaHkzakUzVHZfNFkyQWxmTnNSSjZLOHVSYmpCdXRMWGs2eFdTZE5PMmpWX0VsTDN4M0N2ZHZoUkxWd0dPOHc?oc=5
2026-05-12
2026-05-12
进展要点
- 美伊停火濒临崩溃，霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险极高
- 阿联酋秘密攻击伊朗，冲突向海湾国家蔓延
- 俄罗斯对乌克兰发出顿巴斯最后通牒，停火期间战斗持续
- 特朗普对台军售表态可能在峰会期间激化中美矛盾
- 伊朗核设施动态及美军“解放项目”潜在重启
- 美国制裁伊朗石油贸易链波及中国、香港企业
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应骤降 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
中美会晤结果 / 贸易政策走向 / 企业信心与汇率波动
美伊停火破裂 / 中东全面战争 / 避险资金涌入黄金 / 美元
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国能源安全风险 / 人民币贬值压力
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News TV / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / ORF.at News / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3 / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044249qt7
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260511/2f185f2c68764459ad6402eda8c3e354/c.html
- [3] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/12/6a01a4fefdddff9f478b4577.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-ceasefire-on-life-support/live-77126070?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gas-prices-iran-war-midwest-ohio-trump-b2974499.html
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/usa-china-iran-sanktionen-scott-bessent
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/article/iran-responds-to-us-peace-proposal-to-end-the-war-state-media-says-164241820.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-100.html
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429549
- [10] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-gov-t-asks-court-to-keep-trump-s-10-global-tariffs-in-place-during-appeal/3934366
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260511-xi-jinping-faiseur-de-paix-en-iran
- [12] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-11/trump-el-alto-el-fuego-con-iran-esta-agonizando.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV3Zja29WajNJeTJvT3FaSlZ6ZDZwcXkwakZMZTRHTVg3dEI4WU82UHhOWTkxNzAzc2puQ0dJZEl5XzJfUXdRWlFlai1vanEwUFYzQkdPRmNlUnZXLXBPRFFKUmJRM3dJMVJaZjl4RWk1VzQ1dlRDSXVyOS13ZUxXSUhwZWpaejQzTDlBbGgyOU1uTGd3UlFpMDN3?oc=5
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-congress-iran-petrol-prices-b1281950.html
- [15] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/11/43001
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/11/trump-says-he-will-discuss-arms-sales-to-taiwan-in-meeting-with-chinas-xi?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-sanctions-12-firms-individuals-over-alleged-role-in-iranian-oil-trade/3934363
- [18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-to-travel-to-china-with-17-major-ceos-including-musk-and-cook-white-house/3934290
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-reveals-location-nuclear-armed-171703119.html
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512044730SbY
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260512042140mfe
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxOdkoyb2dvdHlJdmpIaDc3d0N2U1kxandSSmxCN3c5eWs0UHk1Q3F4YVpLNDhLR1ZJb2s1UG1mS1BFcXJWQmZBSU5WRFRKMlV0ek1qUGt2MDlnOGRrX0lwdW94UjEycHFyMGs3VlVCVElpdHlLU3FWSmh5V09mQkhLZVRtMktEejdSdzk4c0I2MTcyREpCcnJNOXVudUZDREw0TUJmUjFBbE1EYnFMYTVhMTBrOEJKT3ZtOFlxU1lmME5vTUFGVjcwZldZM3BSMDEyNjNpRER1QlFTVDlubUtVSmNxUXhjREFoTUJxWmhhdFE1YzBGRV9zdHY2bEdpZnktVXoyeGxWN2xKSjQwb3hsZDFWMmlwYXVwUjZN?oc=5
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260511-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-exige-la-fin-de-la-guerre-et-le-d%C3%A9gel-des-avoirs-une-r%C3%A9ponse-inacceptable-pour-trump
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE1CR1Nfc2JxRHM4N0NjWVViWXh2czVFblA1akE3dFhjUmctQVlBLUpwSW1KUF9ETUpJV2tlRW4wcDM3RW1VYURWQ2pKWQ?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/11/trump-says-ceasefire-is-on-life-support-after-rejecting-irans-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-new-york-israel-consumers-wall-street-b2974516.html
- [27] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/05/11/6a02182721efa03c0b8b4577.html
2026-05-11
2026-05-11
进展要点
- 美军超20艘军舰封锁伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡通航风险极高
- 特朗普拒绝伊朗停火回应，外交窗口关闭，军事冲突升级概率上升
- 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称对伊朗战争未结束，或扩大军事行动
- 以色列在伊拉克秘密基地被曝，伊拉克派兵侦察遭以军空袭，冲突外溢至伊拉克
- 伊朗通过巴基斯坦调解人传递反提案未果，谈判破裂增加误判风险
- 韩国商船遭不明飞行器袭击，航运安全恶化，可能牵动多国介入
关联路径
美军封锁伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡梗阻 / 石油供应中断担忧 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期升温
特朗普拒绝伊朗停火 / 避险情绪高涨 / 资金涌入黄金 / 美元 / 风险资产抛售
美国增发国债 / 债券供给冲击 / 收益率上行 / 科技股估值承压 / 股市下跌
伊朗战争 / 英国经济衰退信号 / 全球增长担忧 / 风险偏好恶化
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / KBS World News / Yahoo News - World / NPR Politics / The Independent / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / ORF.at News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/3960d5d503f7403dae5c143aeff01f80/c.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201355
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618814.shtml
- [4] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/federal-government-must-issue-more-223745145.html
- [5] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/10/nx-s1-5817605/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-proposal
- [6] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/britain-job-losses-iran-war-economy-crisis-b2973830.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-05/11/iran-antwortet-auf-us-vorschlag-trump-voellig-inakzeptabel
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/639845-trump-iran-totally-unacceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3429515
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/10/trump-to-discuss-iran-with-xi-jinping-during-china-visit-officials?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-rejects-proposal-to-end-conflict/live-77102104?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051808Mzs
- [13] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/fiscal-policy-response-to-iran-war-risks-worsening-inflation-bis-chief
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPS2F2bWQ1UlBLTExBNjRzTEZLN1Jtak40T2hSUmJaaHd0dG9BbEhwNnJLbGptN05Sem5SLVBvbktvZTFfYWotQjZ0WXl3MXcwOU5pZXI2TFZyYXQwdVBaWktHbWt4MktOQ3ZWblc3blItcFlPM1ZNaGdDbk1NT0J2V1huSFhvd3JrTjBqYzRmRFpOYmRlc0RhcnRXMlhmUdIBowFBVV95cUxNbUxZRDk5d2JGaHZwbFlBdTVCWWs2TDcyM3h6b0dKb1hYNTlUUk1QME5sNjl1VFpBbDNUUzdZXzdwVlFJVmZoYjRyaVlvaktVcUFRZTdsQmc3LXFaZXk1MUVPNFBzMGNsWE1XOHdnb2MyWkpHNnRSRnNoTlU0b25IS1Q5Y3EtSWNCZl9sZ2dWSzcxaHJLWTd1NlIyNzFMSlJXa29v?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/war-with-iran-not-over-says-israeli-prime-minister/3933285
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/c636cfac40044e89be902f2b154cf33a/c.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260510/b44050ab14924c3fa89df06b58ee15c0/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-11/10618801.shtml
- [19] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/us-awaits-iranian-response-proposal-125003898.html
- [20] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/donald-trump-usa-iran-krieg-antwort-frieden-verhandlungen
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/639844-trump-vows-iran-enriched-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260511051652Xbq
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260511051343oue
2026-05-10
2026-05-10
进展要点
- 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡直接交火，停火协议面临破裂风险
- 伊朗威胁永久关闭全球最重要石油运输通道
- 以色列空袭黎巴嫩致39人死亡，可能引发真主党报复
- 俄乌互指违反停火，普京和平信号与战场现实脱节
- 美国制裁中国公司可能引发中方反制，冲击贸易关系
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油 / 避险资产 / 全球股市
美国制裁中国公司 / 中美关系紧张 / 贸易协议风险 / 风险偏好
俄乌停火希望 / 风险偏好短暂回升 / 若落空则避险
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东不稳定 / 石油风险溢价
来源
NPR Politics / Tempo.co Internasional / Al Jazeera Middle East / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / POLITICO Europe / Kremlin Presidential Office (English) / Yonhap News Agency (Vietnamese) / Sky News / il Giornale / Die Zeit Politics / Le Monde International / Kremlin President News / BILD Politik RSS / Geopolitical Futures
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/g-s1-121061/iran-war-updates
- [2] https://www.tempo.co/internasional/selat-hormuz-memanas-as-iran-saling-serang-lagi-2134463
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/10/iran-war-live-irgc-warns-us-against-attacks-on-ships-israel-bombs-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/u-s-iran-exchange-strikes-as-trump-says-ceasefire-holds-263035973659
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/putin-zaiavyv-shcho-viina-rf-proty-ukrainy-dobihaie-kintsia
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPOFBRV2l2TGJ6d1FsY2doampXNEJyODZFZmp6VDBVNWVYUHdoRDhUMC0ydDBuaU9oZGpITWFUNjZ1TVlUNWQybV85TDlxNXl4aVlwZVViZmdRVV9wNzB2NkhPUUdpdjMxTnVXT01KWmRHZFJtNkY3d2dTMl8zdWdXb0M0X2l2c1R4VDdNeFB3?oc=5
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-says-he-thinks-ukraine-war-is-coming-to-an-end/a-77106772?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-assured-netanyahu-of-no-compromise-on-iran-uranium-issue-israeli-media/3932758
- [9] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/09/state-escalates-trade-row-with-china-over-iran-war-ahead-of-trump-xi-summit-00913421?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [10] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79718
- [11] https://vi.yna.co.kr/view/AVI20260508000500880
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/putin-says-ukraine-war-likely-to-end-soon-despite-ukrainian-battlefield-gains-13542111
- [13] https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica-estera/ucraina-putin-guerra-volge-termine-pronti-dialogo-ue-2662158.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-05/wladimir-putin-krieg-ukraine-pressekonferenz-ende-wolodymyr-selenskyj
- [15] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/09/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-vladimir-poutine-assure-que-le-conflit-touche-a-sa-fin-kiev-et-moscou-s-accusent-de-violer-le-cessez-le-feu_6684995_3210.html
- [16] https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/heftige-iran-drohung-hormus-schliessung-fuer-immer-69ff7fcbcd4a28c4700221b3
- [17] https://geopoliticalfutures.com/what-the-uaes-opec-exit-means-for-the-global-energy-market
- [18] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-forces-strike-iran-oil-tankers-while-waiting-tehran-peace-proposal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQVThGa0pUTkZBT2YzS3I2U29RT1MwNGdCNmdUSXdLY19ObVVSVVNkNmxWZ1k2RjNzQ09PYkhwVEl6dmlmQlpxcTVMX21WYktZdHNNUE04TTBTOUMzZjZWRHJkcC1pVUEtR0tEaUVaODVTc0JTMGV0MlVZSl9YSjF6NGFBLUFMYk5Udm5IUDdLbEE4M3pkeW1aRldLT25Xei1MTmZRWkl6TG1SQjJKVzg4YzB3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-and-iran-exchange-fire-as-trump-says-ceasefire-still-holds-263025733567
- [21] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5814955/rep-adam-smith-d-wash-on-the-latest-round-of-strikes-between-the-u-s-and-iran
- [22] https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5815016/u-s-and-iran-trade-fire-amid-month-old-ceasefire
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/9/for-the-first-time-putin-says-hes-open-to-meeting-zelensky-outside-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-09
2026-05-09
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级导致油价飙升及全球供应链风险
- 美伊协议到期在即，伊朗可能全面封锁海峡
- 俄乌三天停火脆弱，双方互指袭击，随时可能破裂
- 利比亚最大炼油厂停产引发北非能源供应问题
- 以色列在黎巴嫩南部行动造成31人死亡，可能扩大冲突
- 美国从德国撤军削弱北约威慑力，欧洲安全真空
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 全球通胀 / 央行政策收紧预期
俄乌停火 / 避险情绪缓和 / 风险资产短暂反弹
美国就业超预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场压力
美德关系恶化 / 北约不确定性 / 欧洲避险资金流入美元 / 黄金
来源
China News Service / The Korea Times / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / Detik Pemilu / Metro News Politics / RT News / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung - Politik / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260509/us-fires-on-2-more-iranian-tankers-as-tensions-rise-in-strait-of-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/8/pentagon-releases-video-of-strikes-on-iranian-oil-tankers?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617849.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQVWVDc01rQW5teU9vRkZ6eGY5TkkwT2tWekM0VVBrRjFHMVZjNGhDRUI3ZEhqdy1MamR2QVhWODlMTHNuQUhVbkViWUpIdmcySEJlcU9WdVpvU1VJSmRabXBhckhnUHJyb29jMXZHTkRoUF9mUjJXZVdMMFpFM0k2bmRENGc5ZzNFNTN1SGhlVFdQYjFvdldIQkk5S1VnTGlzQUhrMV9abw?oc=5
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/ceo-maersk-ships-14-everything-170854545.html
- [7] https://news.sky.com/story/three-day-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-announced-13541685
- [8] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8481206/trump-umumkan-rusia-dan-ukraina-sepakat-gencatan-senjata-3-hari
- [9] https://metro.co.uk/2026/05/08/donald-trump-announces-three-day-ceasefire-russia-ukraine-28292148
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/639696-trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4121333-trump-says-threeday-ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-agreed.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-announces-3-day-ceasefire-between-ukraine-and-russia/live-77091251?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/ukraine-krieg/artikel/ukraine-krieg-trump-verkuendet-waffenruhe-so-lange-ist-geplant-48342649
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86dp85g59xo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/9/iran-war-live-tehrans-reply-to-us-deal-expected-amid-clashes-in-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617843.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-09/10617837.shtml
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-07/la-guerra-se-asoma-a-un-nuevo-vencimiento-pendiente-del-acuerdo-entre-estados-unidos-e-iran.html
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-05-08/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE0zQmxqdHQ0cTdBOHJtcEx1ajdXR0RhRkthS0tvOS0wM2IwMzUtdk1vUVB4VFBabXNySUdaX19OaV8zME56SmhOQ1BIZTZad0pfdTJBSWlPVDlzeUU2RHpvS24tLWN5emhXWE1ReFItUDI?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/libyas-largest-oil-refinery-halts-operations-during-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/jobs-report-set-show-hiring-090728306.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/639659-trump-punish-germany-appeasement/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-08
2026-05-08
进展要点
- 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡直接交火，停火协议濒临破裂，中东全面战争风险上升。
- 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡，导致全球原油供应中断。
- 法国航母逼近海峡，欧洲军事介入风险增加。
- 以色列在黎巴嫩发动空袭，中东多线冲突联动。
关联路径
美伊交火 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 央行政策两难
关税违法 / 贸易不确定性下降 / 企业信心恢复 / 经济衰退预期缓解
军事冲突 / 避险情绪 / 黄金 / 美元走强 / 风险资产抛售
欧洲航母部署 / 多国介入风险 / 地缘联动 / 资产波动率上升
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Times of India / KBS World News / The Hindu / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-usa-und-iran-beschiessen-sich-in-strasse-von-hormus-a-b0cb0e94-a59e-49b0-b574-af358c0ab39d
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617187.shtml
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508065335EuD
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBwQnR2X3ZtNDFrbkQwTTRjcnJtVW8zc2pMTXJxLTFZUDBDOTRGaXhueVVLekZaSVdpNGl3MkpqT29EekY2ejFXSU9PdkpNR1ZNamdBakI4ZUZob253YlIwanVpUndGQ1lETktXLVZtWV8tc1Q2VnVR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-it-struck-targets-in-iran-after-attack-on-warships/live-77088159?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260507-middle-east-war-live-us-and-iran-accuse-each-other-of-ceasefire-violations-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5559083/selat-hormuz-memanas-iran-as-saling-serang-lagi
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/well-knock-them-out-harder-trump-warns-iran-of-harsher-military-action-after-3-us-ships-came-under-fire-in-hormuz/articleshow/130933318.cms
- [9] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201309
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-trade-fire-west-asia-war-strait-of-hormuz/article70952891.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/briefing/trade-court-trump-tariffs.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-says-targeted-iranian-military-214422794.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/7/videos-show-interceptions-over-the-skies-of-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617182.shtml
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508090836LPE
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260508091222lYj
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-08/10617209.shtml
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9saEpROVFUXzB4QzBtT1Z2ZWlmODQydTdKdG9aRXFPb1BjQWV0LTFNdjAyZGlrTlVMX3Z4NmZTa2VGX0x1WlRrLWZyNUtRUlkwMTdVenNBTFcxR3I1MS1sYmxHRHFKMWtveVFXVUU5bEpOclhhcUl3OFRXVlJ2b1U?oc=5
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/economy/trump-global-tariff-ruled-illegal.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE95RHFJYjM2ZkFnRXRTMlVqSmFob0NKdld0Z0ZwMWVhU0FZYmN2VVZtNmZiaEJCTjAxRTg3X2pSMEJqT1VwTWhjam93eGFEdXktM1VJWA?oc=5
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20260507-strait-of-hormuz-what-role-for-france
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/big-setback-for-trump-us-court-rules-10-global-tariffs-unlawful/articleshow/130930650.cms
2026-05-07
2026-05-07
进展要点
- 美军攻击伊朗油轮可能导致伊朗报复，霍尔木兹海峡航运风险持续。
- 俄罗斯胜利日（5月9日）前后可能对基辅发动大规模打击，乌克兰平民伤亡已上升。
- 以色列空袭贝鲁特，黎以停火名存实亡，真主党可能反击。
- 法国货船在霍尔木兹海峡遇袭（NYT），商船安全受威胁。
关联路径
美伊协议进展 / 油价风险溢价下降 / 全球通胀预期缓和 / 股债双升
俄乌胜利日升级 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强 / 新兴市场资金外流
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突 / 中东风险溢价上升 / 油价反弹 / 全球增长担忧
油轮袭击事件 / 航运保险成本上升 / 贸易中断风险增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Yonhap News TV / KBS World News / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Global Issues News / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639549-us-iran-tanker-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507090601M8I
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201283
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260506-russia-warns-foreign-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-of-strike
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-fires-on-iranian-oil-tanker-as-trump-pressures-tehran-for-deal-to-end-war/article70948554.ece
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42967
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-07/10616597.shtml
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/angriffskrieg-in-der-ukraine-russland-dringt-auf-evakuierung-auslaendischer-botschaften-in-kyjiw-a-ab69353b-9c0f-4df2-9d63-32d768005654
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYy05cU1rcVk3aXlCRFNmNTJ3WEhSalR4dkk5MC1YNl9WWG1XaG9QVWNLQUhoZGRvaDA3cmRNSkdtZDI5dkI3aERJbmRBd01FWFlsOFBCYTQ4OEQxM3RrNU1HNXhqZ1dWZkQxZkxXTng2N3ZWdk1NaXJsNVpwMEtqb1NySUVXbjk5ZDZLS1ptdk1fVGdqMVdCckNOdW43Rnc?oc=5
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/russia-tells-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-moscow-launches-mass-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/could-ceasefire-ceased-iran-back-212505667.html
- [12] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260506014152315
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/business/french-ship-hormuz-central-command.html
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/iran-hit-more-us-defence-assets-than-reported-satellite-images-show/articleshow/130869021.cms
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/israel-strikes-beirut-for-first-time-since-lebanon-ceasefire/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082751XF8
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260507082829agH
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/05/06/42966
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/trump-says-had-very-good-talks-with-iran-as-tehran-reviews-us-proposal?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/6/israel-bombs-beiruts-southern-suburbs-2?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-trump-sieht-einigung-nahe-iran-prueft-moegliches-abkommen-a-19ef1840-45d3-432c-9c43-33fb235eb608
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-bombardiert-erstmals-seit-waffenruhe-beiruter-vorort-a-bf8e6513-5e0b-4e43-8d07-5167be697fef
2026-05-06
2026-05-06
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡军事对峙暂停但未终结，伊朗新规增加通行不确定性，美伊协议前景不明。
- 伊朗革命卫队警告偏离指定航道将遭打击，货船遭不明弹丸袭击（UKMTO报告）。
- 伊朗否认攻击阿联酋，但警告若阿联酋采取军事行动将毁灭性报复。
- 美国要求韩国扩大护航参与，韩国国内法限制致回应谨慎。
- 伊朗最高领袖外事顾问称两国仍处战争状态，美方说法被否认。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应短缺预期 / 通胀风险 / 央行加息预期
特朗普暂停行动 / 短期风险偏好回升 / 股市反弹、油价回调
伊朗新规 / 实际通行受阻 / 石油实物短缺 / 油价上行
美欧贸易摩擦 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Der Spiegel International / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strait-hormuz-showdown-begins-u-132901358.html
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639461-global-oil-shortages-chevron/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/trump-announces-pause-on-us-operation-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260505-en-direct-donald-trump-suspendre-operation-americaine-pour-escorter-bateaux-detroit-ormuz-moyen-orient-etats-unis-liban-golfe
- [5] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1063473/iran-perkenalkan-aturan-baru-untuk-transit-kapal-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-donald-trump-setzt-militaer-einsatz-fuer-sichere-hormus-durchfahrt-aus-a-09110b24-5de9-4643-9a3d-c701250ab14f
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506083448XBA
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-operation-epic-fury-is-over-rubio-says/live-77059422?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616011.shtml
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clypekl71gdo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOZVNNNFNuaGY3ekVlTlJra3NuT3ItcGJycnBFSF9YSHpqSzFxR3YtYjVJQjRQbl8zSTNOOWRHRkVvQ1o0ZWQ1bjMyUkk5bXRIOF94RkNTYms2cjZsNEpIc010TzJKUHF6WXVmU0FtaUs1eERwUGxJZWNESVRiOWlORVc4UUdnR2VGb3dacFVHS2NhQWhjcjl4TWpiSU4xZVpId01HVXJoeUJiVWtnZjF3V1ljUG9GX19ib3hSVzZ2bW9lZw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/639502-trump-hormuz-freedom-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616009.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080836FnL
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506080338M8a
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616006.shtml
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260505-rubio-says-us-military-has-completed-offensive-operations-in-iran
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506075816iRz
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506074057CUb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506080056tMp
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616004.shtml
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-06/10616001.shtml
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072847kWz
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR2026050607171320H
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506072539XhY
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050606515869I
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260506065121a7o
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260506063848him
2026-05-05
2026-05-05
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡持续军事冲突，美伊直接交火增加全面战争风险。
- 伊朗恢复对阿联酋等海湾国家攻击，地区安全网恶化。
- 特朗普威胁“抹去”伊朗，言辞升级增加误判可能。
- 韩国货船遇袭可能使首尔被动卷入军事行动。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期 / 风险资产抛售
伊朗攻击阿联酋 / 地区安全恶化 / 避险买盘 / 美元 / 黄金上涨
特朗普对欧关税威胁 / 欧盟出口前景恶化 / 欧元贬值 / 欧洲股市下跌
美国制裁伊朗石油 / 中国进口受阻 / 全球石油市场收紧 / 油价上行
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Le Monde International / RT News / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-us-and-uae-report-iran-attacks-as-military-pushes-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605050807137ro
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/uae-reports-missile-and-drone-strikes-incoming-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNOF9BY1FLenNuX1FCU2VTTmk0SmxDN0FqVHRFa3Nua0t6R0VBOVJBYy1xdXhsUmtzNHhqZjVMdGhPYjJobndNOWR3bFhib3VrWnJlM1BnbUxtNnJqZjFFOHlXMDRJM3p0YUl4TENJcUgzWFZRcUNZQTlBQnJrUlBrMXhJVi1pOEQ1WGNTTGpKT005WmMzUW9FbTVBYUPSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0szZUswSjRJZ0h2dUNGbm1USmdPSEZIUGszMVpsbktkaHJaZ1RoTXI5ZnlqdXhWNEpRMXY5MkxtcHRkSDNHWG8yVDJXSFNROXV0YkFscWRPdUVxcHI1cmtWN1lYSnlJX1dNQlU2QVhrbHZienBtVnFPVmtocXE5M2VkcnNRTHZvZ2NBdVI0WnVROG9TZ3Zxcmk3dlRwVFhMWWd3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/04/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-affirme-avoir-tire-des-missiles-contre-des-navires-militaires-americains-deux-navires-marchands-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz-selon-l-armee-americaine_6684072_3210.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/639450-iran-us-sink-boats-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/briefing/iran-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-met-gala.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615670.shtml
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-attackiert-vereinigte-arabische-emirate-donald-trump-meldet-versenkte-iranische-boote-a-5d2d79be-0aff-43ee-a854-66f73a0e8663
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/5/iran-war-live-washington-tehran-trade-threats-over-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-en-direct-accrochages-detroit-ormuz-operation-americaine-d%C3%A9bloquer-iran-pays-golfe-liban-etats-unis-israel-missiles-drones-conseil-securite-onu
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083539uN2
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260505083557sW4
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPd2plZWlfWWZRNHZINm9SUVZLZnNucE1mWERKX3FMSWVzeWNSMkg0WXRTdndGQUZsSHVJcW8tLWI3NWM5V1o5NGRsTWxLdDFNazU4T0xNcndKT09pVXZ3eEo5VDRQSEZ2TTVDMjNhMGE0Vld1cHMyWGZsYk93bzNwSmw4M2pQOXp5clhzRjNPWlM?oc=5
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260504-amirats-arabes-unis-nouveau-vises-par-iran-au-lancement-operation-americaine-detroit-ormuz-drones-attaque-pays-golfe
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615663.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-05/10615660.shtml
- [18] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/05/04/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-donald-trump-contre-l-industrie-automobile-europeenne-fragilisent-encore-l-accord-de-turnberry_6685398_3234.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/05/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-emirats-arabes-unis-disent-avoir-intercepte-15-missiles-iraniens-et-4-drones-dans-la-journee_6684072_3210.html
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/639438-us-destroy-iran-future-analyst/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/hormuz-tensions-push-ceasefire-to-the-brink-as-trump-threatens-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/us/politics/us-china-iranian-oil-sanctions.html
2026-05-04
2026-05-04
进展要点
- 美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的军事对峙升级，护航行动可能引发直接交火。
- 伊朗拒绝停战方案，谈判僵局持续，冲突长期化风险增加。
- 乌克兰对俄石油基础设施的袭击可能触发俄方报复，扩大俄乌战事。
- 特朗普从德国撤军导致北约内部分歧，欧洲安全架构动摇。
- 特朗普遇刺案调查持续，美国政治暴力风险上升。
- 阿联酋退出OPEC后，OPEC+内部凝聚力下降，增产协议执行存疑。
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策收紧
北约分裂 / 欧洲安全风险 / 资本流入美元 / 黄金 / 美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 油价承压 / 缓解通胀 / 风险偏好改善
乌克兰袭击 / 俄油出口下降 / 全球重油供应偏紧
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Le Monde International / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Global News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504090940oLO
- [2] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504001500315
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-announces-project-freedom-to-help-stranded-ships-leave-strait-of-hormuz/article70936417.ece
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQSVJPVVBjX2Z5alZfTHlJaDBrN0d0aS1WeWVJWlkwQ19kNTRKQldNOVJNaDJzbmtIcjdBd25mOXIyVjdJR0lHeHJtN1htUmxVQXItNUFsTllPbm8teG1oeS01WkxPTGlGOHRPa202RU9tbThkN0tRN2NZQnU2SWNHZHgwQXkyTk5kSmFlVVBwVdIBlAFBVV95cUxPSmJUYzNHM3lybFJuV2NYYjl5NWhGbkdrLWZQTEx4VWtxYmN5SzR0MEVEOTBZcFVEeEItcDZqeTJLdVJFZXQ5eUdoeGdaaUYyR3pqRHRfbWU5cHlVU0lZaDdoNkllY1ZzelBKV2IwX3djLWZJSl93S1RkVzdUd3Bta240RzVDQzNaeUFtZjh4OUlNYWxq?oc=5
- [5] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Militaer-will-festsitzende-Schiffe-aus-Strasse-von-Hormus-geleiten-id30781595.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260503-en-direct-guerre-iran-marine-americaine-va-escorter-navires-bloques-detroit-ormuz-donald-trump-cessez-feu-liban-israel
- [7] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/politics/strait-hormuz-stranded-ships.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615312.shtml
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-to-guide-ships-safely-out-of-hormuz/live-77021634?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/05/03/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-annonce-que-la-marine-americaine-va-escorter-des-navires-bloques-a-travers-le-detroit-d-ormuz-a-partir-de-lundi_6684072_3210.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504062226PpA
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-trump-plant-einsatz-unter-codenamen-project-freedom-a-9c929e2e-ab18-434a-9f78-bc00c6194ee2
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/3/iran-lawmaker-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-return-to-pre%e2%80%91war-state?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ukraine-hits-key-russian-oil-092405352.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/639394-nato-rift-widens-as-trump-eyes-troop-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://globalnews.ca/news/11827950/iran-war-trump-reviews-proposal
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260504090443Eyo
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260504085951Lh9
- [19] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260504000500320
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxObUh2emxTZXgta2JVZzZkUXVmNURoTGM3ejQ0aHBaMUk5WEE4dzJjOXR3UjdtQ0FCNmNtZFJ4NjhGdlFScGdWVjRfeUhpNS1JN3dBNW5PY25rMS1BQUVXVmx4b2NLSVFVU0hyYy0weVZYY1YyY2VVSHdIZGlhOV9CNGNyQm4?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/trump-says-us-will-help-free-up-ships-stuck-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQOGJzdEItUzB5NWhkTDhrZHFmcG5VVVNlOFJycUl5UUp0cVF4UXRNdjQ0R2FxWmE3aVRKZ1U4VVdvWFIzWl9xdlRGSzlZWjI2S1JjTXZaTlRwSWZDcjdGX0RiUkVFUzE3UF9BX2k3VFBhc3lfdW43aTRYUnRuaU9rcGF0RFNJOWVNYjUzS2dVbTdNQdIBlwFBVV95cUxPT1dHdGRoYzVMVjNEWENQb2s0QXZjZFNEeDUzQkhNVnJUeVdsaUxmX3c5aWF5eGt1RFJXMUhLRGFXa2xoMDJCbHRGU1NENnQzRUN4eFliWXZmZVliVFF4RVNMX2hfajE2M2tnOFpSMjVPbFh5c2Vxb1haM1kxMHFzNFk0ZHFIWEdCbk90Q0FIU2tSUG4tTGNj?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/3/investigators-say-trump-assassination-suspect-shot-officer-at-press-gala?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-04/10615308.shtml
2026-05-03
2026-05-03
进展要点
- 美伊谈判彻底破裂，特朗普威胁摧毁伊朗，军事升级风险极高。
- 霍尔木兹海峡实际封锁，48艘船只被拦截，伊朗起草管制计划，航运中断加剧。
- 以色列24小时空袭黎巴嫩致41人死亡，真主党反击威胁。
- 伊朗高级军官称恢复战争可能性大，美军16处中东设施受损。
- 特朗普威胁占领古巴并实施新制裁，古巴谴责。
- 印度公布摧毁7个巴基斯坦恐怖营地，印巴局势再添变数。
关联路径
美伊谈判破裂 / 军事威胁 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险情绪恶化
科威特出口归零+伊朗减产 / 供应缺口 / 能源成本推升通胀 / 央行政策两难
中美制裁升级 / 贸易战蔓延 / 供应链重构 / 全球贸易萎缩
日元干预 / 非美货币波动 / 套利交易平仓 / 新兴市场资金外流
来源
China News Service / TF1 Info Politique / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / The Hindu / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / IRNA / The New Indian Express / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Anadolu Agency Politics / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-un-oeil-sur-le-monde-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439438.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260503085353W9D
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/not-yet-paid-a-big-enough-price-donald-trump-sceptical-as-iran-submits-14-point-plan-to-end-war/articleshow/130726204.cms
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-usa-iran-war-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz/article70933317.ece
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/3/iran-war-live-trump-says-reviewing-14-point-plan-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-03/10614972.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxPSGJjck82amFhWlA2S0IwcDhxMExFRS04WGVfRUJUNHpUMDBkcGF1YzlZc0hzcm5DRl95WmpNamkzTVF2TGFBY01mQWRzTDFoY1JtOFlYMV9EaFZNVWJiRUFGdXhoSHEtZzNGd2VYWTc3Sk9WOExFdUZsa1hOTHZJdXpfZkN0TmU5cm16R0RPZGFqR1JsaEFGcjVR0gGfAUFVX3lxTE43empuR1NlMGN4UG4xQmMtNHdfSTdWdlMtbzdvV0VqbG9GTHlBakpWRFMzWVV1ak5rOW90WDNKT3p3MlNMMjR4Xzh2TUZFWDZ2blJfUFRBdDlQVmRONDI0Rk5qTzMtQ3FJenk2TDVXbmctN0hFUGE1YzExQ2l1TzQ1MVhTNnM2Mkg5end0SXhNVE5NOUNXbUZaVVJtV1E4VQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260502-senior-iranian-officer-says-renewed-war-with-us-likely
- [9] https://www.irna.ir/news/86143782/%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinion/columns/shankkar-aiyar/2026/May/02/trumps-war-sends-prices-up-rupee-down-and-budgets-into-a-spin
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinas-commerce-ministry-blocks-us-122430312.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-dubai-emirate-oeffnen-nach-waffenruhe-ihren-luftraum-schrittweise-a-b453de7b-bb9d-46de-a75c-63a90bacd806
- [13] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-says-it-redirected-48th-vessel-from-iranian-ports/3925070
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/news/on-sindoor-eve-army-releases-list-satellite-images-of-7-pakistan-terror-camps-destroyed-rajnath-commends-valour-of-soldiers/articleshow/130726143.cms
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260503084648QDd
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026050308551598f
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/spirit-airlines-collapses-amid-rising-fuel-costs-from-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/japan-likely-spent-34-5-091653225.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/2/syria-becomes-alternative-energy-corridor-for-oil-as-hormuz-effectively-blo?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/videos/video-lci-direct-du-samedi-2-mai-2026-2439398.html
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-le-prix-des-carburants-provoque-la-col%C3%A8re-des-am%C3%A9ricains-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-toujours-bloqu%C3%A9
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260502-la-guerre-de-donald-trump-en-iran-a-t-il-renforc%C3%A9-le-r%C3%A9gime-des-mollahs
- [23] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-drafts-plan-to-regulate-strait-of-hormuz-transit-deputy-parliament-speaker/3925209
- [24] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-strikes-damaged-16-us-military-sites-in-middle-east-report-claims/3925162
2026-05-02
2026-05-02
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙持续，霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻风险高
- 特朗普可能绕过国会扩大军事行动，宪法争议激化
- 美军在中东多个基地受损，暴露防御脆弱性
- 欧盟可能对美国商品加征报复性关税，跨大西洋关系恶化
关联路径
汽车关税 / 美欧贸易战 / 全球增长预期下修 / 风险资产下跌
美伊谈判僵局 / 军事打击风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期升温
伊朗袭击美军基地 / 地缘溢价上升 / 黄金避险买盘
战争支出扩大 / 美国财政赤字 / 长期利率担忧
来源
Xinhua World / Yonhap News Agency / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Sky News / Der Spiegel International / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260502000253315
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/1/trump-announces-25-percent-tariffs-on-european-union-cars-trucks?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9riques/20260501-trump-va-relever-les-droits-de-douane-%C3%A0-25-sur-les-v%C3%A9hicules-europ%C3%A9ens-d%C3%A8s-la-semaine-prochaine
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502015724pi5
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/d14d22e17e844cffb2a706d522068854/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPRWhEcG1UbEtCVld6T1lkcWZ0NjVLdHducUxSWlV2Wmo2eEJKaGo1b0hkLTJWb2NPMVd3NGszUXJ4MTI3UjhtcGh4TTdqZXMxQlk2SUQ0TjRlQ1REbnZ6RFJOMXBTUHM2MWs0RTNoNGJ1aFVsSFJhbVlSaDZjUkpaOUFjNjN5NmJZejRrbUx6SQ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg4pqe1zzgqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.sky.com/story/eu-hits-back-at-8216unacceptable8217-donald-trump-over-plans-to-increase-tariffs-13539002
- [9] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/donald-trump-neue-autozoelle-treffen-europa-und-einen-deutschen-konzern-hart-a-be3f04b9-0109-4076-afab-218a01bd4c1c
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/trump-to-raise-tariffs-on-cars-trucks-from-eu-to-25/a-77014772?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260502/1b9232412f534545a7ff8bef8edb07e5/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/1/trump-considering-option-to-blast-the-hell-out-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260501-n%C3%A9gociations-iran-etats-unis-dans-l-impasse-frappes-sur-le-liban-offensive-djihadiste-au-mali
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-donald-trump-will-kongress-nicht-um-erlaubnis-fuer-krieg-bitten-a-25a2ffb1-5728-420c-94da-f7af7f767942
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260502044340Ob9
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz7l5v03po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOTXlxd1U3RE5OempqQ25NOHczbnkxc3FOSTRmMWU4RnN5WW1LZ3ZUUVhvYkU2cGg1RTNfVkJwMTlRaU5YdzhlQUdBVzkteWhVanRubkpnYnRTazBRdU4wX1ZPX1hKWnp3cjc0VHJiMFNqWDJObUdKblB4eTI0ZlQxT0oyclY1YkpvMEViOHpobWM0SmM5VFhZQldySUtJb19TT2JyeVhmVzB0RllKaWtGWGJDMGVuUQ?oc=5
2026-05-01
2026-05-01
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙升级，美国中央司令部制定‘短促有力’打击计划。
- 伊朗威胁采取‘痛苦回应’，地区冲突范围可能扩大至波斯湾及霍尔木兹海峡。
- 以色列违反停火协议袭击黎巴嫩南部，真主党与以色列冲突持续，黎巴嫩死亡人数已超2586人。
- 阿联酋退出OPEC+加剧海湾内部沙特与阿联酋分歧，OPEC+减产机制面临瓦解。
- 伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡策略持续，中国约1/3油气进口受威胁，北京高层访问复杂化。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升 / 央行政策两难
美伊军事对抗 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产（美元、黄金）流入 / 风险资产抛售
阿联酋退出OPEC+ / OPEC+控制力削弱 / 油价波动率上升 / 产油国财政和地缘博弈
日本外汇干预 / 日元短期升值 / 套息交易平仓 / 亚洲汇市连锁反应
来源
China News Service / Global Issues News / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/04/30/42914
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260501090925pcX
- [3] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260430-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-prix-du-p%C3%A9trole-au-plus-haut-depuis-2022
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-launches-fx-intervention-briefly-pushing-yen-to-155-from-160
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/1/iran-war-live-tehran-says-us-ports-siege-intolerable-trump-mulls-action?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/a88369f137c10336.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-01/10614135.shtml
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/gulf-within-on-the-uae-leaving-opec/article70925606.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-seeks-international-help-reopen-103203927.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE9hTWF6eEpfcXlEcnlrNEZENTVLMEo5VzI1ajl0QUgtc0hjZF9ZVHE5b1FBaENzTkttSHpTUThnNEFReG9zVzJLenhEZFZVRnd1djVQWmRB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-strait-hormuz.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/639306-uae-opec-power-play/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/04/7ee2fe1fc9621f70.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/30/us-gas-reaches-4-30-per-gallon-trump-says-prices-will-drop-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260430-mojtaba-khamenei-d%C3%A9fie-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-le-cours-du-p%C3%A9trole-reste-volatile
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNbHEzUkJqd3VxMWZrZVlWNGpTUlE4ak4wbjlSeDAtS2pELUUwWWtyMVpfQWJNVnRybDFJajU1ZVIyQUVQN0ZzR3hkb2hCOHNfdjdXd0hrd19MMWhMd3pQQUZPbHk3ZUR2Q1BYZzZtTWoyWHFKN0g2V2pNbXV4eUZRZEtZb0dLOWtjWHI4cEpobXUxemVZcHpnLUI2dXg2TW05b3NmeFd30gGrAUFVX3lxTFBLNW5ZVG5TU0l0ZjhuWVVCMmMzRzU3NG1wLUJadE95cmdabkQyakhPMlh2bzRGLTBkSVczVWR1MVJpTndlTGdJajJ0VGJPd2ROal9qNXFhMEhFanB2dmhZS1otdnotU3c2YnRuRmppU2x1S0hLRTlzMUZxUXJJbUp4anJub1YwNHczNnVNZ1hwTi1tclNsLVhmMlBMWWQtRENJSHhJTDhneUkwVQ?
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trump-china-iran.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/639308-pentagon-underreporting-iran-war-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-30
2026-04-30
进展要点
- 美以对伊战争进入第60天，霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续，全球约三分之一海运石油运输受阻（RT...
- 特朗普明确海上封锁将延长至伊朗弃核，且可能持续数月（Yonhap News TV。
- 伊朗警告若封锁持续将采取前所未有的军事行动，美伊正面冲突风险上升。
- 普京宣布愿在5月9日宣布停火（Ukrinform），但俄乌冲突实际降级前景不确定。
- 中国威胁对欧盟“欧洲制造”法案实施报复，中欧贸易摩擦可能升级。
- 阿联酋退出OPEC，沙特-阿联酋分歧或导致OPEC+内部裂痕扩大。
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上升 / 全球避险
特朗普延长封锁+阿联酋退出OPEC / 供给不确定性增大 / 原油波动率飙升 / 能源股与航空股分化
中国施压欧盟 / 中欧贸易摩擦升级 / 欧元 / 人民币汇率波动 / 全球贸易链成本上升
鲍威尔留任+独立性争议 / 美联储政策路径不确定性 / 美债收益率曲线陡化 / 银行股与科技股估值压力
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Der Spiegel International / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260430062349378
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/639259-iran-war-60-days/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/iran-krieg-brent-oelpreis-schiesst-nach-drohungen-von-donald-trump-in-die-hoehe-a-c6abe27e-8f4f-4aea-b3d3-03577bd2bcce
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-powell-to-stay-on-after-chair-term/article70922354.ece
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613439.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQOWMyU0ZNQ0M1YklBdzNpTmFlc0xyRGh5MllkbUtGRUMwS0FyaVlJVlh4c3JXNjlDVWpQSTdfOTVROXl3WHBOV3MteFBlZ1ZxZTdFYmVQMzJpLXpocklLUm9nYTRHa3pEbzZxYlN5M1duUktiOXY3dVc4RU9yNXlneWNsOW9qaFd3TlZDV1RrVXY4clpVY1pJazdfbTZ3bk5oWXAwZDJaRklSeGNnZ3diU3ppUkZCcTBUNXc?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/29/uae-quits-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rm4zk3kgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260430/b6793c9c730a4df7b1476b9cadc8dde6/c.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4118026-putin-announces-his-readiness-to-declare-ceasefire-on-may-9.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430090250cDZ
- [12] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-keeps-iran-blockade-trump-links-move-to-nuclear-deal-as-oil-nears-120/article70922353.ece
- [13] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/fed-chef-jerome-powell-er-bleibt-a-1f5db838-3887-49a4-8788-36fcaef16b6d
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-30/10613435.shtml
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/29/why-is-the-uae-quitting-opec-and-whats-the-impact?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300833473Qc
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080150X59
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430080002e2g
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604300732533nE
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260430072101IHb
2026-04-29
2026-04-29
进展要点
- 阿联酋退出OPEC可能引发连锁反应，其他成员国效仿，OPEC面临解体风险。
- 美伊战事持续，霍尔木兹海峡航运中断威胁全球石油供应和粮食安全。
- 伊朗更新军事目标清单，暗示可能发动新一轮攻击。
- 海湾国家内部裂痕加深，沙特与阿联酋在能源政策上分歧公开化。
关联路径
阿联酋退出OPEC / OPEC解体风险 / 各国增产竞争 / 油价长期走势不确定性
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 原油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期上升
美伊僵局持续 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）上涨
世界银行能源价格预测 / 市场对央行政策预期调整 / 风险资产波动加大
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / German Federal Foreign Office / RT News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-in-blow-to-oil-cartel-amid-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/uae-quits-opec-in-shock-move-amid-energy-turmoil/a-76968579?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260429/6223708a8ab742bd9add51e81cfb276e/c.html
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/uae-opec.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612580.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260428/42f598d771584143a69a6d3205fd0d71/c.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260428-iran-talks-stall-amid-hormuz-tensions-and-ceasefire-violations-in-lebanon
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429080038Urk
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR0Nyd3lpa3Q5SDNRVlNYbG1nUXQwUkU5WlY5SGFrQmROTFZXWGhYRnNBR2JHTDdZMmdBb2REc29FaGdVWTlCa28yMEttd3RKaGZINVk4NHBDakF6amc0d0pFeDA5Vk8tS0RGOVdmc245TlRxUjJNdlJTRHZES2wzU0NtRnZMT0FI?oc=5
- [10] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/639229-uae-opec-cartel-withdrawal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gulf-leaders-meet-saudi-arabia-104929175.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/28/uae-leaves-opec-and-opec?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260428/f7281943198e487ea398f92dbf47fb08/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260429073257Z46
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260428-uae-opec-departure-a-manifestation-of-dissatisfaction-vis-%C3%A0-vis-saudi-arabia-expert-says
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTE94dUdMcUxFZlZPcVJtX3N5UWJzQmhfRDBPUktSZkZndkppelJhWHQxeGk5QWwwX2pqWTV3aWdka2U2MGpITWpSckVZS3RhRHJ4TlN0ZFN4WXFqdi1HMG1OdU5xTThiNUxLLWpXd1pJRnREZw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/middleeast/united-arab-emirates-leaves-opec.html
2026-04-28
2026-04-28
进展要点
- 美国政治暗杀未遂事件：白宫记者晚宴枪击案嫌疑人被控，可能引发进一步政治暴力。
- 美伊霍尔木兹海峡对峙：伊朗封锁海峡威胁全球石油供应，联合国警告粮食紧急。
- 真主党与以色列边境交火：以色列威胁“烧毁黎巴嫩”，冲突有扩大风险。
- 美以被指攻击伊朗核设施，核不扩散条约面临危机。
- 中欧贸易摩擦：中国威胁反制“欧洲制造”计划，贸易战风险上升。
- 美方提议组建“海洋自由联盟”，可能将霍尔木兹危机多边化。
关联路径
特朗普遇刺未遂 / 政治不确定性 / 避险需求 / 美元 / 黄金升，股市跌
霍尔木兹封锁 / 石油供应冲击 / 油价涨 / 通胀预期升 / 风险资产承压
美伊谈判进展 / 供给风险下降 / 风险偏好回升（受限）
中欧贸易摩擦 / 关税 / 非关税壁垒 / 全球贸易放缓 / 相关货币 / 股票受挫
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Federal Foreign Office / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / ABC News / Die Zeit Politics / ANTARA News Agency
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/politics/trump-assassination-attempt-cole-allen-charges.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/28/iran-war-live-trump-reviews-peace-plan-un-calls-for-hormuz-to-reopen?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083338GrV
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-28/10612004.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPd2Q4RjJxWldmdnJEOHNpNG0yeUJDR3hDVFBoanBrZHVuTFJoSGw3MnN6QllNTVI4dC1LMUsyYWNwMlhkT1RfN3QxanZXYU5QVFZvaklBN3ZVOS1fMHFNVVBPS3pSTTNCS1RiLWhTNm12TTdTRjRnemt0SXA4aXpZSmNDajZOYkFudlB2cEV3?oc=5
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2769416-2769416
- [7] https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260427-suspect-in-press-gala-shooting-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/man-charged-with-attempted-assassination-of-trump-in-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting/article70913760.ece
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting-suspect-arraigned-monday/story?id=132410865
- [10] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-04/usa-korrespondentendinner-donald-trump-attentat-anklage
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5544797/as-tolak-iran-kuasai-selat-hormuz
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260428083424bVv
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_AFBVV95cUxPX0xJcUFkRWhScGRqdXdFNV94ZUYyb0JWOHdiRkdiakFSWFRGd2dqZ2tnSXladUpFcklMZkJUVDltX0JvZFkxaDVLV2JPV1lmS0VPVHV3MDJZR05Dc3N0TGVrYUkwU0FHeGhiTmZITnV5cUVpanlwbVVyZWFCbm1hS3BWQUZ5Tk5xRzhTTV94SEcxbVU3ZWJtUnJRNmh6ZkZRUC0zTTBwdG85SHBDUVNXNDl1bDlDZkZLU1N3NFZwRjY4VHNiUjNiQnA1VmVFNmFCLTFjRXhncHlfWWQwSEFhWW5LejItckgxUS1GcDZHOEs2ZEdBSW95cGdTeEY?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/hezbollah-and-israel-swap-threats-and-strikes-across-lebanons-border?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-talks-strait-of-hormuz-nuclear.html
- [16] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-vows-countermeasures-if-eu-enacts-made-in-europe-plan/article70913665.ece
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
进展要点
- 特朗普遇刺未遂：美国政治暴力升级，大选年不确定性骤增
- 以黎停火破裂：以色列空袭加撤离令，真主党否认，冲突恐扩大
- 伊朗霍尔木兹海峡收费：封锁风险威胁全球20%原油运输
- 俄乌核电站遇袭：切尔诺贝利防护结构被无人机击中，核安全警报
- 俄朝军事合作：朝鲜或更直接介入乌克兰战场，东北亚安全格局恶化
- 美伊谈判僵局：特朗普暗示电话谈判，双方分歧巨大
关联路径
特朗普遇刺 / 政治不确定性 / 美元 / 黄金上涨 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗海峡收费+美豁免终止 / 石油供应收缩 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期抬升
以黎冲突升级 / 中东全面战争风险 / 避险资产走强
俄乌核设施遇袭 / 核安全担忧 / 地缘溢价扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427091017XG8
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260426/daba923ddc844ddabea5d0129532f166/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-27/10611350.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxgv8j7zlo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPcVBWblkyWXVKYUo5a0NJTU5leldLUzZ2alhRVXFoWHdHWWtkZDJwSUl3WVZWeW92T001QXJNLUEwY1NnNUlxSk4wVEM2LWJ4d290NXBFbzF5RkRpMzFNd3JzQTRGejBHNWx6bjFEM2o2dmJJMy1uVllaenRMcUlzTUp4T2lqel9GU1ZnSW9nd253bFo4UVRjMVhEdVFuMW1mM3EtYXp4WXNCamtaZ2steWtXclVJZGlLTFE?oc=5
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/us/politics/shots-fired-inside-the-pandemonium-at-the-washington-hilton.html
- [7] https://orf.at/stories/3428055
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-wont-renew-iranian-russian-215951473.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/israel-issues-forced-evacuation-orders-for-southern-lebanon-in-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4116887-zelensky-strike-on-chernobyl-npp-shows-moscow-cannot-be-trusted-as-international-partner.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/russia-north-korea-agree-long-term-military-cooperation/a-76945404?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/how-israel-deployed-iron-dome-to-uae-amid-iran-war-explained/articleshow/130535531.cms
- [13] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ee3833fdddff1c348b458a.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/feuilleton/2026-04/correspondents-dinner-donald-trump-attentat-pressekonferenz-weisses-haus
- [15] https://elpais.com/videos/2026-04-26/cronologia-visual-del-atentado-contra-trump-en-la-cena-de-corresponsales-de-la-casa-blanca.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260427072511bO0
- [17] https://orf.at/stories/3428051
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/world/middleeast/us-iran-peace-talks-pakistan.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPUDFiSmpOTEdtZlVya0poQkx2Q29ZNlZGWkEtd21lVk5IQ20yXzBTbmZsOV9BM0RvTk9rMUREaTJPYmJEZUV0V2I3cUdVa3lBVkJGY2NJcnd1THVvVGZkWURleFBnWjZrMUVlaW5iZ2g0OEc3dW9hdy1PNzlqeVdRcy1ZU0pWMC1BUGdTb2JPVVFfd1RKdVBBUS1DcFYxdU44cGFzSE5FR2_SAa4BQVVfeXFMTVloSWlMQjRRa0FxRlNoMHBKM3RERjhla2ctajgyUEF6UmNqbFZ2bklrS2lDUF81U0pTZlRmVGlDN2tvNldoRmxEa1Z4cjBQTVJrbmNiUDFDWHo4WEVubnowYWtDbkMxYUpMblJxTkdPN0JYdVZRRlBOQlB2ZktBakFvS0ZIOXVxWFJfeDBrOVBGeU91OF8zZjFDcGVLX2F1ZW9DVGdyTW54LS0
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/26/trump-his-administration-likely-targets-at-media-dinner-us-official?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-26
2026-04-26
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡双重封锁导致全球石油供应中断风险，伊朗可能进一步扣押船只或布设水雷。
- 美伊谈判破裂后，伊朗可能重启核活动或支持代理人攻击，美国或升级军事存在。
- 以色列与真主党冲突无视停火，可能演变为全面战争，波及黎巴嫩及叙利亚。
- 俄乌冲突持续大规模空袭，基辅等城市基础设施受损，战争长期化风险。
- 美国对伊朗二级制裁可能引发与欧洲、中国的贸易摩擦，加剧全球经济分化。
- 中东局势紧张可能导致恐怖袭击或航运保险费用飙升，影响全球贸易。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀与央行紧缩预期
美伊谈判破裂 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产（黄金 / 美元）走强
以黎冲突升级 / 中东溢出风险 / 原油流动性收紧
特朗普言论 / 政策不确定性 / 股市波动放大
来源
China News Service / elDiario.es Internacional / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / Yonhap News TV / The Hindu BusinessLine / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Mirror Politics / Tagesschau / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World / n-tv Politik / ORF.at News / IRNA / PBS NewsHour / LIGA.net Politics News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/doble-bloqueo-estrecho-ormuz-atasca-trump-busqueda-salida-caotica-gestion-guerra-iran_1_13168241.html
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russian-attacks-kill-3-wound-082655969.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/26/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-talks-under-siege-trump-cancels-envoys-trip?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/26/69ecadb421efa0b0538b45a2.html
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/usa-iran-trump-absage-pakistan
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426085319zmZ
- [7] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-says-its-hunting-for-explosive-mines-in-latest-push-to-open-strait-of-hormuz/article70905372.ece
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1060483/iran-sita-dua-kapal-di-selat-hormuz-diduga-terkait-dengan-israel
- [9] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-stepping-up-plans-potential-37069193
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-sonntag-112.html
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/perehovory-ssha-ta-iranu-v-pakystani-zirvalysia-shche-do-pochatku-hlava-mzs-iranu-zalyshyv-islamabad
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-26/10610976.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxOUHFYOUgyaGRzV0Z3eWVYQkNoR3Zfd1NxdjJyR000bDhDYk12dUs4RnNRSThKbHF0d2I4STM2NXNyNU5SRTZncGNlcmxDblZrOVV5WUt1VmIxZG5TdTV2YUR2N3RvZ2pYeWxIUW5rUndJd1EzTXJvRE54bHMxNTVkanUwZWFZdHRqanhhalVpZ1NWRi03UDhCLVRseHlQRF9rTVExa2lfN2U4d3MwVEEtMi1HMm4?oc=5
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Netanjahu-befiehlt-trotz-Waffenruhe-massive-Angriffe-im-Libanon-id30755821.html
- [15] https://orf.at/stories/3427974
- [16] https://www.irna.ir/news/86137239/%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF
- [17] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/latest-ceasefire-talks-fail-as-irans-top-diplomat-leaves-pakistan-and-trump-tells-envoys-not-to-go
- [18] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozdushnye-sily-rossiya-vypustila-po-ukraine-47-raket-i-bolee-600-bespilotnikov
- [19] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260425-strait-talks-what-s-at-stake-in-hormuz
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260426080800Pgk
2026-04-25
2026-04-25
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁导致全球石油供应中断，油价可能飙升至150美元/桶以上。
- 以色列对伊朗发动先发制人打击，中东爆发全面战争。
- 美伊谈判破裂后伊朗封锁海峡并攻击美军舰艇，美国军事回应升级。
- 乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂袭击引发俄罗斯报复性切断对欧洲天然气供应。
- 中国因台湾问题制裁欧洲企业，欧盟报复性限制对华高科技出口。
- 美国制裁中国炼油厂引发中国抛售美债或汇率干预风险。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 通胀预期上行 / 风险资产抛售
美国制裁中国炼油厂 / 中国石油进口成本上升 / 人民币贬值压力 / 新兴市场资金外流
消费者信心崩溃 / 美国消费放缓 / 经济衰退预期 / 美债收益率曲线倒挂加深
沃什缩表信号 / 流动性收紧 / 利率上升 / 股票估值压缩
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / RT News / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / The New Indian Express / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/639021-trump-hormuz-iranian-boats-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/world/middleeast/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-23/trump-ordena-disparar-a-matar-a-los-barcos-que-minen-ormuz-y-dice-que-iran-no-sabe-quien-es-su-lider.html
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260425090048v87
- [5] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/24/us-imposes-sanctions-on-a-china-based-oil-refinery-40-shippers-over-iranian-oil
- [6] https://www.dw.com/en/us-justice-department-drops-investigation-into-fed-chair-powell/a-76929212?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOeUFpRTI4WDZhekJUTm1KdGVjNzZiQ3BkR0FySWMzNHlyd1N4SnZTMGpXV2pWRjdQZnYxRUJpM0REUmZxbXFFakRFbG9ZRDJVeWVqM25LcmV3ZURPbWZlXzkxOUhEN0NnOVpwWVdNcU5vakJhazZOVmN5VG5GLVZ0WFAxQ0RXd2pwc1JTYlFOam1raV9CS25lTXQweXhYcUNjWlIzajJzQ013RjgxQS1F0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1UZmFPY2IyMnZvd0lDRmFFVk9HdDhsVnA2RmlfZW52Mkk1allGS0M4RmZ3RHRva01lQmhMZjhCdTFfdnJtNUlBekx5MUJfa09HTE56WURvdGNheDN3Y1Y5SlVVU19SUnFwUWFnYTlUNEZaVDVZQ01DUElDTENMZE9lUnZ1WkYxbFRoTUJxU3dITlFJa014a3liMnkzcFBSNWdwR1R
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260425/0c21b585a3b042a0a07f61a95419c370/c.html
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/24/russian-oil-exports-slump-as-ukraine-hammers-ports-and-refineries?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-slaps-export-curbs-on-european-firms-over-taiwan-arms-sales/article70901919.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-25/10610558.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-bans-dual-items-exports-083335858.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-hegseth-us-blockade-has-gone-global
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202604250844155JP
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNbHZtdmRvTVVHbUdLSXRqam5mSEsxZTUxdHFwaENuVktwWVR1NVp6UUVEWnpVbHNxampEMngtRVpad1M0emxUZUhRcThVTTFnbWZrYnFSNHJrVWZXNHR4SHhwQlBHOURMbm8zR04zcmhkdTFYRUlRY0VoVnItdVhsRnhTU1lEZnVyeUc0a0Zqb2xNNGhDeDR4VmtqVUJ2UC1jRF9LY0FLR1B6RWU1WVhreU5uVdIBuAFBVV95cUxPWkVSdXFvTDYyaDhkcFRHRUYxWjM0amJrZGxXSElSb2Q5bnlwREhPbkZ6T0JFQ3U2Ml9QSjJPQW5UYTRmaWEzcDN0RDJ4RkV6akJpWVZfWjJGd3FKQW9pN3Z3UmJQZU1EeE82bzRhUVJQbWJwR0Rxa1hzSFR1TWJIdURzWEJCMjM1b0lKM2UtRjl3YUdySkFXVzlwd1U1U0E
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-rates-balance-sheet.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/24/us-justice-department-drops-criminal-probe-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/639029-israel-threatens-iran-stone-age/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10610537.shtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-24/el-cerco-maritimo-estadounidense-agrava-la-fragil-situacion-economica-de-iran.html
2026-04-24
2026-04-24
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡美伊直接军事冲突
- 和平谈判破裂，外交途径失效
- 以色列可能重启对伊朗军事行动
- 德黑兰防空活动可能预示停火破裂
- 乌克兰战争长期化，欧盟巨额贷款暗示无短期和平
关联路径
霍尔木兹冲突 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球风险资产下跌
欧盟制裁俄罗斯 / 能源贸易限制 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 欧元承压
中东战争 / 巴拿马运河收费翻倍 / 全球贸易成本上升
德黑兰防空活动 / 停火破裂风险 / 避险需求提振黄金
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / The Korea Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New Indian Express / Google News - World / Tagesschau / n-tv Politik / Anadolu Agency Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69ea61f0e85eceab218b45a1.html
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-shoot-and-kill-on-mine-laying-boats-in-strait-of-hormuz/live-76903459?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-seizes-another-115401871.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260424/trump-orders-us-navy-to-destroy-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/us-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-boats-laying-mines-in-hormuz-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/23/trump-orders-military-to-shoot-and-kill-iranian-small-boats-choking-strait-of-hormuz
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/24362fec668c4243bdc5f187d6e9c804/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFBHWHh4MHJiY3N4OUJkNG8tSnpscUVWQjFMaUhtMkdMOGxtU0s5YjY0TzBpNUhsZ0Y3YzJ3clVaa2d2X29MMUNTRXhKQ0tWbUlfTUxrcGJmMmpFbUZYTUpjVjR1bHAwbzV4UGJsVmRFWXFfTFl3b3Q0?oc=5
- [9] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578508.html
- [10] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Dritter-US-Flugzeugtraeger-im-Nahen-Osten-eingetroffen-id30749237.html
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609724.shtml
- [12] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/panama-canal-transit-fees-skyrocket-amid-war-in-middle-east/3916289
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260424/563b5786ef5a4642a43fd7c4b70058e5/c.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/24/iran-war-live-lebanon-truce-extended-trump-says-time-not-on-tehrans-side?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/23/69e9dc91e9cf4ab1528b4573.html
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/video/video-1578352.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Explosionen-und-Flugabwehr-ueber-Teheran-id30749146.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-24/10609710.shtml
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPZnctV1ZiSVNwQ2pqOFo4V0pCOFVZOEJjYUkwVUVWNzFIZEZBVnIzQlV5eEU2MGNlUWllOE9IVFc4dE96SmdOOVp0UjZjWmVEQlZjazI3SG9yb1k3WGJxbVlEXzU5bUZnU2YteDdLaVNlTHk0NGlDTUdyZ3l4ZXBxelBsYVdQalNja3c0Ug?oc=5
2026-04-23
2026-04-23
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险，影响全球20%石油贸易，推高油价和通胀。
- 美伊军事对峙升级，可能导致全面冲突，波及中东稳定。
- 俄罗斯导弹飞越切尔诺贝利核电站，增加核安全风险，引发避险需求。
- 欧盟对俄新制裁可能加剧能源供应紧张，影响欧洲经济复苏。
- 伊朗封锁港口和袭击船只，威胁全球航运安全，增加贸易成本。
- 德国经济增长下调，反映中东冲突对欧元区经济的传导风险。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨
停火延长 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹
能源危机 / 经济增长下调 / 风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / The Korea Times / POLITICO Europe / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / The New Indian Express / White House Presidential Actions / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / LIGA.net Politics News / BBC News (Business)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxPUTdJWGw0MnB0amZkdDE2aXVJckZnRlFYd0xfa3RYc2dmTHNFWXVLLWdRb0Nld2otX2tFc0dTclBJdFpYMEtPbnltRXREUV9jdVhTa01lMXl3Rzl2MFV5T29xOWR4b0l0SGpvTzROcWRzZFhpdjNVS0xNMDZjbGI4WXpGZW1USEdKQU9rSG80OWo1bjV0UnJLckh0ZlZPVTVLa2FNcjZmNmtzUEpydmFN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE1tc3Qxd1ZDQnhhcXU0TEs3aFB2aGZMVmhZRzQ2aGU4MkpTTG04YnU5QUpEbG9rTjhFOVBOTm5IMDFWaURnMHhWVXR1R1NSc2xEbktZRXpycUlOcVV1eEVkVEZSdVhneFNSdWF1dWZzWV9mTzlZQnEwa0tmX3hBUFZCWm5zb0dzMTZVbHkzQ09rVGM5dm5ocWc3ZEhtMFlHMTY2RXB
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-maintains-blockade-diplomacy-stalls?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260423/3da4708309dd4578bd9853b98a86c87a/c.html
- [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-divers-mines-strait-of-hormuz/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w3vqv0edpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-stocks-close-higher-after-trump-extends-ceasefire-with-iran-earnings-boost-sentiment/3915269
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260423/69a4fb69dfc24375a06c1ec4201d8b04/c.html
- [8] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/22/irgc-fires-on-container-ship-in-hormuz-as-trump-says-iran-collapsing-financially
- [9] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638934-fuel-crisis-summer-holidays-europe/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-23/10608931.shtml
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/ukraine-restarts-russian-oil-flows-to-europe-unblocking-90bn-eu-loan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/vozle-chernobylskoi-i-hmelnitskoi-aes-proletalo-35-kinzhalov-nekotorye-upali-kravchenko
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995dkl4dvvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260423/iran-fires-on-3-ships-in-hormuz-as-us-blockade-holds-talks-stall?utm_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-turned-back-29-vessels-since-start-of-naval-blockade-of-iran-centcom/3915220
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPRFZKelM2ZlBobW5DVjNhY2ZWeDc2a0VKZ3otVU1xNWFIOHFSVFhKUTFMenFtc3JUSTNwcWRoYW5uN05RZFhYcHFYQ1RNTHQ1YjVtQUlUcm55SHJmcV9FdzBzNFBIRDRDS3MzanlnN280bWFDSVRpY3NQZW5xanBHWWFzLVp5SUltSEh3eVV5ZmpjcWpUZDJ0eTZUVW8wMG9DdVdNcEpOM2t3bE0ydGVJZkZKTHhJVHp3UEdv?oc=5
- [18] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/evrosoyuz
- [19] https://www.politico.eu/article/german-government-slashes-economy-growth-forecasts/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
2026-04-22
2026-04-22
进展要点
- 伊朗拒绝谈判导致中东冲突升级和军事行动风险
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁全球20%石油供应，引发能源危机
- 中美因伊朗问题关系紧张，可能扩大制裁和贸易摩擦
- 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯管道，俄乌冲突持续并可能蔓延
- 日本放宽武器出口增加东亚军备竞赛风险
- 北约在伊朗问题上缺乏协调，加剧联盟裂痕
关联路径
伊朗谈判破裂 / 中东地缘风险上升 / 油价和金价上涨 / 通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪
中美 tensions / 制裁风险 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金上涨
美联储政策预期 / 美元和利率波动 / 全球资产重新定价 / 股市调整
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / UK Ministry of Defence / O Globo Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Valor Econômico Politics / Nikkei Asia / Evening Standard Politics / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / RT News / Google News - World / The Independent / ECB Press Releases / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260422/82f87a374e194c6eaba6c6c350563634/c.html
- [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-france-to-lead-multinational-strait-of-hormuz-military-planning-conference
- [3] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/trump-estende-indefinidamente-o-cessar-fogo-com-o-ira-horas-antes-de-fim-de-prazo.ghtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/eu-eyes-options-as-iran-conflict-threatens-jet-fuel-shortages?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/04/21/petroleo-sobe-com-impasse-nas-negociacoes-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-dials-up-pressure-after-japanese-destroyer-transits-taiwan-strait
- [7] https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/donald-trump-primark-rollsroyce-jd-vance-tim-cook-b1279515.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dl3ez4mpno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/thought-i-had-understanding-with-xi-trump-says-ship-seized-by-us-had-gift-from-china-for-iran/articleshow/130421362.cms
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638850-japan-pacifict-policy-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-22/10608177.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPX05YQks4SXZnMmVqN1Zxb1l5VDVvQkpzUlJKWHNhNjZFSVhsVEczYV9nTTluTHlROHl4b3FkeHY3MG83a21DVkVWQ2MwSzBmRmVNWHByd19DNGdIRzR0MTN0X3Q3LV9SRWFTOWxObm9raE11MkJOeXB2b2RMS3d4VHlSSERCNngwdEx1X0hESUtNTWpaS0F6dXljbDN4bS1NSXVTNU50RllVWXprMXhaSg?oc=5
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/peace-deal-trump-bombing-ceasefire-deadline-b2961967.html
- [14] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260420~cdf674023e.en.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/energy-environment/strait-hormuz-oil-natural-gas.html
- [16] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4114995-zelensky-approves-list-of-ukraines-next-military-operations.html
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/d76e6830831749beb548e9357889dd1c/c.html
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/21/ir-diz-que-bloqueio-naval-dos-eua-ato-de-guerra.ghtml
- [20] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/21/kevin-warsh-diz-que-fed-precisa-de-novo-arcabouco-para-enfrentar-a-inflacao.ghtml
2026-04-21
2026-04-21
进展要点
- 美伊谈判破裂风险高，停火协议4月22日到期，延长可能性低。
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续，科威特宣布不可抗力，全球石油供应受威胁。
- 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，加剧俄乌冲突和能源危机。
- 伊朗可能采取报复行动，如无人机攻击，增加中东不稳定。
- 以色列角色争议，前顾问指责其破坏美伊谈判，激化矛盾。
- 美国扣押伊朗船只，双方互相指责违反停火，紧张升级。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地区冲突 / 石油供应风险 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
谈判破裂 / 中东升级 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / Google News - World / ABC News / RT News / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/65dcf44dad444df1af920586d6915969/c.html
- [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd88r2wjzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/20/how-is-the-iran-war-affecting-the-russia-ukraine-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260421/e881f10543754b00b9e5db0a154542e5/c.html
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-b2961365.html
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/military-blockade-iran-strait-hormuz.html
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxORXd1REM4UGE3TGNlNUo3SENlLVVKU0c5a0pYSE9tUGxVSXZ4TTR5UDhNdjMtMzMyUGxSaXdMZFRaajVvZkl4X01FOER2QWFHTExmdUppX0N2UlpLdW5BOFp6R1dCQkpESGh0TDRLZU5ORlB3OXo2aFhMVTA1V1EyNmlkNndvMGU4MEl5WVB5eVVXUW1NY3p3aThMNjE3VVYtMTlybGpIMA?oc=5
- [8] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-marines-uss-tripoli-seized-iranian/?id=132196152
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638762-israel-blood-feud-us-iran-james-webb/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260420221202mpn
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/dxw/2026/04-20/10607342.shtml
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260421/4c7f703fb14b4f41ad1af9f68fb3055c/c.html
- [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75kg0vdxyro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-senate-banking-committee-hearing.html
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/638768-trump-iran-threats-acceptable/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxQZklJTEJXMTV5c3o3REtYRTJCTmFRRVFWZEYzY2p2OEtGSTc2S3BnUVBLcmVDanltVGpvUVR1OWUydnJONTdETElIampPT1pCeXpiaVM0bXl4Tnk4YWtLQTdGM04tekZDUlg2SHdXX0lCNHBGSjlteUpJR05HbXRCV0NXNFZVNkpTay1sTGxoZXJ3ckhVRG5ZOVM0NWNTTDlybUdsbnlJTE1nMHdIZmpJbXJvbHF5VmNZZ1NwUEppOG8?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/israel-never-talked-me-into-the-war-with-iran-trump-says?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-israel-iran-war-october-7-b2961183.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420214421sFT
2026-04-20
2026-04-20
进展要点
- 美伊军事冲突进一步升级，可能演变为全面战争。
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，影响全球石油供应链。
- 伊朗报复行动可能导致美国军事资产受损，引发连锁反应。
- 谈判彻底破裂，地区稳定长期受损。
- 其他大国如俄罗斯、中国可能卷入，加剧国际紧张。
关联路径
美伊军事冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀压力
谈判停滞 / 地缘不确定性增加 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
伊朗强硬回应 / 地区供应中断 / 能源市场波动 / 股市调整
大国博弈加剧 / 全球风险溢价上升 / 资产重新定价
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Global News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrinform / El País Internacional / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420083047QIP
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOdlRGMC1MdHFSUm5aa0tZbDA1NDF6d3Rpb0RLNm1SNFF0eGl6YUY3WWJHM011bnFYZEdFX2ltay1yZzY5X0lSaENVM0M2bzUwUUhOZHd4VmEtaElwdndWa3J5cjc4MnRfTk53RUlhUGJyQ1NidEt5cVRFbGhkX0VLaUpn0gGHAUFVX3lxTFBWQUkyUERmREFYWGc2Yk5OSy11Rm9Ed3VZSlpIaEppTC1aVGZHdmJ5bHE3cU9hRzAtSjFPWEwtVWNMQjc2MWtwbWJadzZFaGNMOF9FRlVEeE1mbXdzZWpwbnEwSFdFZjJjYmwzQU1DSzRxTC1Kc2VzeUdKV25uVV9HWlZmTk5nWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260420/2abb8511885f4948a0bdb0526b5aae77/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjzy35825o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606799.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-confirms-us-seized-iranian-vessel-says-it-will-retaliate-soon-/3911687
- [7] https://globalnews.ca/news/11808120/iran-oil-prices-strait-of-hormuz-standoff
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-vows-response-to-us-seizure-of-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/19/us-forces-attack-and-seize-iranian-ship-touska-near-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/638742-us-fires-iranian-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg4jnn131qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114330-tramp-zaaviv-pro-perehoplenna-iranskogo-sudna-amerikanskimi-vms-v-omanskij-zatoci.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-19/estados-unidos-intercepta-un-petrolero-irani-que-trataba-de-superar-el-estrecho-de-ormuz.html
- [14] https://orf.at/stories/3427365
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260419/c7286c8315d6457eb38862da3bdb061f/c.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260420082541zWf
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-20/10606779.shtml
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-says-us-seized-iranian-flagged-cargo-ship/live-76845923?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOanFJd19CUnZMSkRITFo3bmh0OGdPN2hKM2x0V1ZDcGpvSU0tck56YU9nZlY3aWJJdFRsNzVEeDBnLXEyV21BWnI0MUFKTjYtel96T3N1ZzczRGEydWJrWDVoZWprS09qMDJacVVqVVlZX2E4dU9ocmNyd1V6OFdEUkY5X29ORU1UZHRkZjY1aU1CRHlS?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/638736-us-seizes-iranian-flagged-ship/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-19
2026-04-19
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能长期中断全球20%石油运输，引发能源危机。
- 美伊军事对峙升级，包括船只袭击和导弹打击，增加冲突扩大风险。
- 以色列与黎巴嫩停火协议脆弱，中东地区稳定性恶化。
- 美国登检伊朗船只可能引发海上冲突，加剧地缘紧张。
- 伊朗要求美国解除封锁作为谈判条件，和平进程停滞。
关联路径
伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀风险上升
美伊紧张升级 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
美国登检伊朗船只 / 地缘风险加剧 / 石油供应担忧 / 市场波动增加
地区冲突扩大 / 全球风险情绪恶化 / 资产重新定价
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Ukrinform / NPR Politics / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / ORF.at News / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/19/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-date-set-for-us-talks-hormuz-strait-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-fully-closes-strait-of-hormuz-over-us-blockade/article70879044.ece
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE1PclNJckZUN0o5SXVGa1REVkhfVG9wZUx6T2E4Z1R0SkpmWW9MdE5fU2RaaEhpaGt2dk9Ucm5lLURRV085S3hfb1hWSl9TdjRKc2t4WFZqSHcxeTNqbjI4UHVDczlINHRpcktodGFCLS1ZN3pDN0ZuZ2dn?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-iran-war-end-052157501.html
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/more-than-1-000-tel-aviv-homes-left-uninhabitable-by-iran-war-mayor/3911064
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114122-tramp-obgovoriv-u-situacijnij-kimnati-krizu-sodo-ormuzkoi-protoki-axios.html
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/18/nx-s1-5789852/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-tenuously-holds
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2631x6nelo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/638685-us-board-iran-vessels/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sklykav-terminovu-naradu-cherez-zahrozu-viiny-z-iranom-zmi
- [11] https://orf.at/stories/3427284
- [12] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/18/69e3c454fc6c839d028b459f-video.html
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-face-au-blocus-am%C3%A9ricain
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaWhWNHdua3F2cEE3RVNzZFNHV1o5N0RsOFFybkxtOThyWm5BZ2MzNXRsYTFuVnJHREp1LVotYWJidXc1T2NqM0RzM2NMQmtNdXlyQ1ViZ0RhaEJRckJIVDY2bURJZXpfMW5hZTlWT0F4VGlsdUVRYnlOYlVXNERxWG9IeUN4S2ZZUmJGUkJkUzAwY1FsQ1c3NVFRQWo5N0Rq?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-over-us-blockade-of-its-ports?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-hints-resuming-attacks-045633309.html
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-hormuz-strait-to-close-until-us-lifts-naval-blockade/3910961
- [18] https://orf.at/stories/3427249
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4114099-vijskovi-ssa-gotuutsa-do-visadki-na-sudna-povazani-z-iranom-wsj.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260418-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-iran-verrouille-de-nouveau-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
2026-04-18
2026-04-18
进展要点
- 美伊关系紧张，封锁可能持续至协议签署，增加石油供应不确定性。
- 中东冲突升级，以色列与黎巴嫩对抗可能扩大，影响地区稳定。
- 俄乌战争持续，最大规模空袭显示冲突加剧，避险情绪升温。
- 台海紧张，中国对日本行动提出抗议，可能引发更大摩擦。
- 欧洲与美国在伊朗政策上分歧，可能影响多边合作与安全行动。
- 伊朗战争已造成重大经济损失，长期地缘风险可能拖累全球增长。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡开放 / 石油供应增加 / 油价下跌 / 通胀缓解、股市上涨
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 避险资产需求上升
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘紧张缓解 / 风险资产上涨、油价承压
台海紧张 / 避险情绪 / 美元黄金走强、风险资产承压
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / The Korea Times / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / LIGA.net Politics News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/how-50-days-of-iran-war-led-to-loss-of-50-billion-worth-of-oil?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260417/2d185ad19a1a47de86f5fc1979224deb/c.html
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009552315
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNUzlVaVRtODBnRGVTaG1TUzFDNG9KN2pZMEZxdmMzMU9QemsydzVmLXZXRmROZnBGbjZDYTBtTU1pV3lJWHRBWUNzTkJVR0tuejR0eHBDNWRLUDVCQTNuMzRDbE9zeTJpbkotRjVRaExWc3loZ1lyUlgtRVB2MUNmUDdCemYxLTVWQmhCUXJhbmU2SDNoU1duS1pRVDhQUzk3SjB6NDRnTldDS0pRLTRNLWlkazFMWDVTZ01yaEhKbVhqYm8?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/stocks-surge-oil-prices-plummet-134523237.html
- [6] https://www.newindianexpress.com/editorial/quick-take/2026/Apr/17/quick-take-dial-i-for-hormuz
- [7] https://news.liga.net/politics/news/tramp-dumayu-mirnoe-soglashenie-s-iranom-budet-cherez-den-dva
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/17/world-reacts-to-the-opening-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-amid-us-iran-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg045z73z1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-to-accelerate-effort-secure-hormuz-despite-donald-trump-order-to-stay-away/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260417/8f9f2d58ec6b4645bb2039f88bd37eaa/c.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/oil-tumbles-nearly-15-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-completely-open
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOZGV0aXlsUV9hejJ5LVBuU3BramFsdS14V2YwVG8zcGRtOW9WWlZjQnkyU1I4bHVuZFRrdnB3VlplemJPaDM0NUt4Ql9qRDF1SzlFZnUteXVncGI4MGk1bW5VQUhYMDVpdUdIQzZfcEtocTFRUXpWNmk0NlNQanRrSTZ4a3g?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260418/1f1df6c278ae404fbac5646e4671ca71/c.html
- [15] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-plunge-after-iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-completely-open-trump-says-regime-has-agreed-to-indefinitely-suspend-nuclear-program-134154875.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/4/17/aje-onl-tt_irn_kharg_av_v3-170426?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260418/traders-place-760-million-bet-on-falling-oil-ahead-of-hormuz-announcement?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260417009551315
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭七周，全球20%原油出口受阻，石油供应危机深化。
- 美伊谈判若失败，中东冲突可能重启，引发更广泛地区动荡。
- 俄罗斯对乌克兰空袭升级，欧洲安全局势恶化，避险需求持续。
- 伊朗威胁扰乱海湾贸易，可能进一步冲击全球航运和能源通道。
- 美国扩大对伊朗全球封锁，增加误判和军事冲突风险。
- 全球粮食危机风险因霍尔木兹海峡化肥运输中断而上升，影响多国稳定。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油和化肥供应中断 / 全球通胀上升和增长放缓 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌和股市上涨 / 风险情绪改善
俄罗斯空袭升级 / 欧洲安全风险上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 避险情绪升温
中国GDP增长强劲 / 全球宏观信心提振 / 风险资产反弹 / 抵消部分地缘负面影响
来源
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-putrajaya-malaysia
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-no-nuclear-weapons-negotiations-may-resume-this-weekend?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-finance-minister-says-hormuz-204128014.html
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQRmlydkxwa0Vfd1Fvc0JaYjdqWjhfLU13OExTZ3oxdWRIYU5Tak1TY2I2UUNXVC0tZXhNME43T1I5aTllYUpDTHNYVGZvNks1ZThvbUExb1lIWTFJRWhuNmNORjRKdlZ6OUdqS2ZJampPd3JIcGttTlZtRmhEZklfOTJWVFp5c2hj0gGOAUFVX3lxTFB4UnY2ZHZJbFBPNDdwUVFiczQ1dW1NaWxCak0xMHpxb1gtcnVHaWY2QTFDcVZoclJiNjNrbVVtVHBGOTNlczRRXzZQeTJoWS0xUWJSZnFRZG9rN0dRV3UwWGtYTjZpYWMzbFpIOGVNMkdDZS1YaTRBWmRRblI1dlZ3WkI3c3JKZ2lOZDh3ZHc?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/638507-iran-war-fertilizers-famine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/10-day-lebanon-israel-ceasefire-announced-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/f13262ef761049358c15786f1e02ef5f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/08b82853835e4380a67c6de63981ce96/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNWHpSTjlBOFZyYUZXaEdfNGNaM2NkZ0VvRktZT2paVnpJbkdWbk5PdVRkU1VUREJRbFRPVlNNRnlObEJ6Y2phV1dxVkZ3aVZ6TlRvUl9mZmQwT2haYXo2Q3UtTng1WHBBTnh6SS05UDJFVEZqdDgxOWtScWRDZENQYVBTYWxYMTVUWmZHV0FPNUVBbWczVnpTdWhfRHJmWHNLMkJGUTQ0QnRLeFpHREh4cFh2ZmUwRWR50gG-AUFVX3lxTE4ybmRKM0txaHgtcmEyZmhCZVdHcjEtTXM2bnBMdHBXSmZZY2hrLUxlaGw4bXYzbTNsTWVRRnNyeVZDYmhVZ0tnSUxTZGxPMFRTZlU3SUNkNGthUEs1UkhjbXhGWS1iMmlfUzRRNlA0YzZZN1NhSjJNdkRjd0h1RDRQd2pSNjVNZ1JmRXI0NjBuTHZ4VF9BSENBeDU
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/us-to-target-iran-linked-ships-worldwide-beyond-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-us-blockade-iranian-ports-053249833.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/16/us-general-clarifies-iranian-ports-under-blockade-not-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638501-pentagon-us-carmakers-weapons-production/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260416/105f7d3562064f4e99b35cc5fdd9723a/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260416/cca4a32d56a74796a5da62065ceadc15/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE10Q0lhRXhMX2hjajFNX1BFeVFWcVhlY1FjelE0b2tnUHBmUmtwMHBHeEJGdWhVQWlKcXRrZl9HOHlQUWVFd1dHSDJCa3NldEQ2dm1HZU5oeVRKaTlyRmI2a3JVbXBta3N3VmZTQ0NRWlp4LVpVZ2tNUFRRTndDUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQMHRMcmlCcHJaRmxTSTU3M2syUkZmZUNpWlhuNU5hMDFtV1FDbHZVaWJ6SnhVcnc2a0RxUDBaQWpBcTNQWmZHd0JEUzZnREZWYVlHdmxYWGRXWTBMRkJIby1jbXpIOVhvZFV0LTlDenNSMWZvdzdBWTZHX2Zvd180OHlCeWFyd0VDQVJKN2tkQklyM204ZFNj0gGcAUFVX3lxTFBlMkdFLUVmNXlCa3QwOVRyZHZCUWo0enpQV2RWYkxWWjd1a1A4QXdqQjFhOTJxZWJGaFNVMDgwQmdjZ21Ccy00UHhMMVluZTVtTEdHdzlZR09vdXA3OXNiNWd6ajVyUnQ1MjFQOW5WVkZGeW8ySzdFdlNhcGNXaXdlWjUxVS1qY2dFUnBqZXZ6UHpWU1BXbWtNaTNrVQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260417/hegseth-calls-on-iran-to-choose-wisely-says-us-military-locked-and-loaded?utm_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/trump-says-israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-temporary-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNOS1zX0NqaTM5Qmg3YmpLX2h0MVBNUXNGTzl5bEdtVFR5NWNzcXJveG1JLU5YS2t5QVhVd2ZZTnQtdWlvSWhIdjd5aGVnMjcxSG96Y2h5VTY4ZkNJWG0wUFlnaXFJLUVSMmVqeHdLT1RNQU1oRDNlRzl4eV9tcWxtZC1GM0xKYUoxTy1KQUttWmZUMm8?oc=5
2026-04-16
2026-04-16
进展要点
- 伊朗威胁停止海湾地区贸易，可能引发霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，推高油价。
- 俄乌冲突持续升级，俄罗斯袭击乌克兰港口，增加黑海能源供应风险。
- 美伊谈判若失败，可能导致中东冲突重新爆发，波及地区稳定。
- 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称已做好与伊朗再次冲突准备，加剧中东紧张。
- 美国封锁伊朗港口并拦截船只，可能触发伊朗报复行动。
- 大国博弈（如美、欧、俄）在乌克兰和中东的竞争，增加全球不确定性。
关联路径
伊朗航运威胁 / 霍尔木兹海峡中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力增加
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应风险 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求上升 / 市场波动加剧
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险溢价变化 / 风险资产（股市）与避险资产交替波动
IMF财政警告 / 政策收紧预期 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 资产价格调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / The Independent / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Ukrinform / BBC News (Top) / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ABC News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strait-of-hormuz-israel-lebanon-b2957846.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-16/10604577.shtml
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/c69fe273d1b744b2944108ca02a8801a/c.html
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/ukraines-zelenskyy-pursues-more-arms-deals-with-allies-to-help-check-russias-invasion?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQbHV0TWtpcXI1MGV4QlVkX2FES0hra0VSdExoT2V1Z1BqdXctZjF2VHpUYUhRRkJZS1hQekVCUzJ4RVRTSWNmcTZhaDlHUk5jdE5rZXlRNTZ6TUxYb3V2Z25XOHN1VWlrd1o0dXM2NG0yOVZvSnhLMGxQVFFYLXNOWks1UXNBNFRhYWxiTnNiYk9GaXpJaE9zSmE1bGo0d21WY25BLUhOeS0wV3BENzNRaHhR?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4113009-combined-attack-on-ukraine-air-defense-downs-20-missiles-349-drones.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5330l73y2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/us-military-turned-back-six-ships-first-24-hours-iranian-port-blockade-rcna331828
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260416030852ajh
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-the-uk-warn-the-iran-war-distracts-from-ukraine-and-oil-price-rises-help-russia/a-76797004?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-blockade-iran-talks-fail-021511400.html
- [12] https://abcnews.com/video/132069550
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/iran-warns-us-naval-blockade-threatens-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260415/31b1cba1e11b4a908fb2652045db2bc4/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-16/10604568.shtml
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/us/money/stock-market-today-wall-street-iran-war-b2958559.html
- [17] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260416/us-stocks-hit-all-time-high-on-middle-east-optimism?utm_source=rss
- [18] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-high-iran-war-rcna331900
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNMHBnOGZlNTdlN1lMMWVITElFc3FtNVdTZFA1b3k0NkU5NFFVN1Jod3gtSDRJTzJVQk5McDB2S2FKbzBTTkZQUm5OREVkQXhHbnl6UnpfLWVTVmU0cmF5NEttbHVkdGh2R3d3MjZaWUFfbEJJSGR4NWhtSGVxcTV4eE44SjRRelpPeFZ0WEZhY3lmOHlKblZyaEd0T0gwd01sNmRN0gGoAUFVX3lxTE43b1AxT0NfZTdSY2kyMGJZSkZ1Yy15R2VOQUhsVTJFYTBJU2JDRlFEbWNET1VlSDc2MUxEUHZxR1lGc0ZNTW43bTd0Vko0aFhXNDlBekdOX0F2dGlfNEpSWUo5NHpwZUVTNlVqVHBpRWQ2REVQaUItdTg5YXpISUhTdzg1aERRcHE2RHJ6OEF6eURQSkx1aFNMbE5NWF96dWt3dDJONUtueg?oc=5
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-mixed-after-trump-orders-hormuz-blockade-against-iran-145712025.html
2026-04-15
2026-04-15
进展要点
- 以色列在黎巴嫩南部的领土扩张计划可能引发与真主党及黎巴嫩政府的新一轮冲突，破坏地区稳定。
- 美国对伊朗港口的军事封锁若持续，可能引发伊朗军事回应，导致霍尔木兹海峡通行进一步受阻。
- 美伊谈判前景不确定，若16日未能重启或再次破裂，冲突有升级风险。
- 美国财长贝森特指责中国在伊朗战争期间囤积石油，称其为“难以信任的伙伴”。
- 乌克兰与德国签署防务协议（含无人机生产），可能加剧与俄罗斯的对抗。
- 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫访华，强化俄中“无上限”伙伴关系以应对西方遏制。
关联路径
美伊谈判重启预期 / 中东紧张缓解 / 油价下跌、股市上涨、避险资产承压
以色列-黎巴嫩冲突升级 / 美国封锁伊朗港口 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨、通胀预期升温 / 央行政策压力增大、风险资产承压
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油贸易受阻 / 增长预期下调（IMF）、通胀预期上调 / 滞胀风险升温
来源
Xinhua Finance / RT News / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Business) / The Korea Times / ECB Press Releases / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Fed
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/638432-israel-lebanon-forever-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415085953vI1
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr9qrnp821o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/20260415/import-prices-post-sharpest-rise-in-over-28-years-in-march-amid-middle-east-crisis?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260414~b312adeb55.en.pdf
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNenlEY3B4eEpDckI2bllJNTJVNzU1SDNMYjlPTzlpTC11UzA0TTRGUWstSnlSeWdsZURiNjBIODNxRmR6d01kbXUtUl95Q1FrSmFpOE9hQVRnZ2QzQWsyMkVnRkIxdHdrWVZqMzNfbXgza0EtZElMaHEyQlZtZzBsR1ppZWVvWWV2R2w5YUZ3ZkVWQdIBlwFBVV95cUxOb0dhOFBmYUVaMFFOMVZISkMzVWk1N2oxZmxiR3QxbjBqZlJXNlBwQ3VVX2VCdWpDbmEtMXFYcEJoYmJiVkJBMXU4bm1LemR5YzRhVHBGcDBQRzJNVkw3a2ZyRDJYSk1nZTdsRS1ZUjNab25aWG10V1RKdllNbFM3bTJ1SDhkN1J3bXlPS2dBbVVpLVRaM3VJ?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/14/how-us-blockade-on-iran-will-worsen-energy-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260415/98576a4fba914ded8bf1975303f65b5b/c.html
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260414a.htm
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604150910068Su
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPZ0FvbkthQTRrQTJWUmN4N3ZBRVd5SlFwX2JVYjhEQkY4MTRRLVRVcUxYbHkwRDItOGhKcVNWbDFkOFFuSmhZcnFRTEJRU01NMnlTYjM0TUxjUTN1S0pwODFoZno0Q0pta0FqMl9mQ2U3Qm1qdHJwdG5sSENtVGw0dHNVT0I4Y0RRak5iWWNzTGVqZ3FxYVlIVQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-during-hormuz-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638423-russia-lavrov-china-visit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260415/us-iran-may-resume-talks-this-week-despite-port-blockade?utm_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415065334Y9r
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063604GEG
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415064308ULl
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415062259Y0J
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260415064537UqS
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260415063507Wuh
2026-04-14
2026-04-14
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致全球石油供应中断风险
- 美伊冲突升级可能引发更广泛地区军事对抗
- 特朗普威胁中国或加剧中美贸易和地缘紧张
- 伊朗征收通行费可能增加国际贸易摩擦
- 以色列在黎巴嫩空袭使用违禁武器，违反国际法风险
- 美国总统特朗普宣布美军已开始封锁伊朗港口，旨在迫使伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡并接受结束战争的协议。
关联路径
美国封锁伊朗港口 / 霍尔木兹海峡石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加
中国经济数据积极 / 信贷增长 / 局部市场情绪改善，但被全球风险抵消
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / The Korea Times / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/trump-says-us-military-has-blockaded-iranian-ports-to-pressure-tehran?utm_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260414075312mTn
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9lTGVSaGRfSFNsX1ByeERMLWoxdWREdGtBVXNaQy1EeUdZeU9RSVZYY1UxcVh6NzRadndia294eTlGbUtLOVl3N2wySTZ6aVZlMWtjRmlWNF9rVG81NDltb2ZJTU9QWVRGS1JaUUlPaHNZdjA?oc=5
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/trump-says-iranian-ships-will-be-eliminated-as-us-naval-blockade-begins?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260413/9b39653c127e47d3aa204c72aa1d20fb/c.html
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/638355-us-israeli-war-poverty-un/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-enforce-blockade-gulf-115534084.html
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-maritime-restrictions-increase-economic-pressure-on-iran/a-76760110?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260413/42286c72c63d41fba01b7147f7cb9dd5/c.html
- [10] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260414/physical-oil-hits-fresh-record-high-near-150-a-barrel-as-hormuz-crisis-worsens?utm_source=rss
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413235728qQL
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/energy-prices-rise-despite-jones-act-suspension-by-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/638318-iran-israel-us-war-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-passenger-plane-destroyed-us-154212642.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-warns-iran-ships-to-steer-clear-of-blockade/live-76758809?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE90S1NYeU1HLWdoVmJNRXQtb2t2cUxuc1JObDV0bmlLbXVTZTM5Qko0YmVJZk1hZUxoeG5hUmNpZzVPdzdFS1JEdTNHSWFiNUFOZnQzQ1dxd2hQVzFCamdEb0tmTWtSUE9ZZ0U3TEJkdFNXWTQwaEtUTm90MnhvYVU?oc=5
2026-04-13
2026-04-13
进展要点
- 美伊爆发直接军事冲突的风险急剧升高，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡附近。
- 封锁导致全球石油供应出现实质性中断，引发能源价格危机和社会动荡。
- 冲突可能外溢，将以色列、沙特阿拉伯、胡塞武装等地区行为体卷入。
- 航运保险费用飙升，全球物流成本激增，冲击全球贸易。
- 美国单边行动加剧与中、俄等大国的对立，可能引发新一轮制裁与反制裁。
关联路径
地缘军事冲突（封锁） / 石油供应物理中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策转鹰 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊对峙升级 / 地区安全风险溢价飙升 / 全球避险情绪主导 / 资金流入美元、美债、黄金 / 风险资产遭抛售
能源危机与通胀担忧 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 消费者信心受挫 / 全球经济衰退风险增加 / 周期性股票和大宗商品（除能源外）走弱
单边军事行动引发国际秩序动荡 / 长期投资信心受损 & 供应链重组加速 / 全球增长前景蒙阴 / 市场波动率（VIX）持续高位
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / Le Monde International / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Yahoo News - World / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413082525uXU
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/13/iran-war-live-us-military-to-block-iranian-port-traffic-in-hormuz-strait?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260412-trump-orders-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-13/10602662.shtml
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-says-it-will-start-blockade-of-all-ships-going-to-and-from-iran-on-monday/article70855422.ece
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-armee-americaine-annonce-un-blocus-naval-de-tous-les-ports-iraniens-a-partir-de-lundi-apres-midi_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/US-Praesident-Trump-kuendigt-Blockade-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-an-id30705712.html
- [8] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-12/trump-anuncia-su-propio-bloqueo-naval-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-y-las-negociaciones-quedan-en-el-aire.html
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-orders-strait-of-hormuz-naval-blockade/live-76750859?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/strait-to-crisis-trump-orders-hormuz-blockage-after-talks-sink/articleshow/130210828.cms
- [11] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/12/69dbaae6fc6c83b0518b4570.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/article/trump-announces-naval-blockade-of-strait-of-hormuz-after-iran-talks-collapse-over-nuclear-demands-133605926.html
- [13] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=200747
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn781z4lgg4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-abc-news-breakfast-36
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260413075746ide
- [17] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-ordonne-un-blocus-du-detroit-d-ormuz-et-menace-les-soutiens-de-l-iran-apres-l-echec-des-negociations_6676633_3210.html
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260412-trump-says-us-will-begin-blockading-the-strait-of-hormuz
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/12/trump-announces-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-after-us-iran-peace-talks-end?traffic_source=rss
2026-04-12
2026-04-12
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险，威胁全球20%石油供应
- 美伊冲突升级可能，谈判僵局增加军事行动可能性
- 乌克兰停火协议脆弱，俄乌战争持续影响东欧稳定
- 伊朗革命卫队威胁对军用船只采取强硬回应，增加擦枪走火风险
- 美国海军测试霍尔木兹海峡封锁，可能引发伊朗反击
关联路径
美伊谈判僵局 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘紧张升级 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 风险资产抛售
军事行动加剧 / 石油供应中断 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场波动加大
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The Korea Times / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / ORF.at News / PBS NewsHour / France 24 #3 / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / Der Spiegel International / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412091323e3R
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/12/iran-war-live-historic-face-to-face-talks-with-us-continue-in-islamabad?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens/article70852336.ece
- [4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-pause-for-now-disagreements-remain?utm_source=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602264.shtml
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/12/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-les-negociations-entre-teheran-et-washington-se-poursuivent-toute-tentative-de-navires-militaires-de-franchir-le-detroit-d-ormuz-fera-l-objet-d-une-reaction-severe-menacent-les-gardiens-de-la-revolution_6676633_3210.html
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-usa-islamabad-strasse-hormus
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426624
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iran-hold-historic-direct-negotiations-in-pakistan-as-wars-fragile-ceasefire-holds
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260411-washington-affirme-commencer-le-d%C3%A9minage-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/navy-tests-hormuz-blockade-expert-172203991.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4111582-dva-korabli-vms-ssa-pocali-rozminuvanna-ormuzkoi-protoki-cnn.html
- [14] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-irans-marine-warnt-us-kriegsschiff-vor-durchquerung-a-e7da4550-99e4-4487-b95d-6815467ea8a6
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260412090741Hbt
- [16] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260412/us-iran-talks-extend-into-second-day-as-strait-showdown-deepens?utm_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260411-iran-us-negotiations-underway-in-pakistan-us-says-strait-of-hormuz-being-cleared
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/numbers-us-thrashed-military-targets-103019697.html
- [19] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/11/en-direct-benyamin-netanyahou-soutient-qu-israel-a-aneanti-les-programmes-nucleaire-et-balistique-iraniens-les-etats-unis-affirment-que-deux-de-leurs-navires-ont-traverse-le-detroit-d-ormuz_6676633_3210.html
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-12/10602257.shtml
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
进展要点
- 中东冲突可能升级，影响石油供应并推高通胀。
- 俄乌战争持续，避险情绪支撑黄金和美元。
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险威胁全球航运和能源安全。
- 美伊谈判失败可能导致军事行动扩大。
- 以色列与黎巴嫩冲突加剧地区不稳定。
- 贸易政策不确定性增加全球经济增长风险。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 加息预期
地缘紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
美国CPI超预期 / 美联储政策收紧 / 全球资产波动
贸易不确定性 / 避险资产需求上升 / 市场情绪谨慎
来源
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
参考链接
- [1] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4111356-invaders-strike-highrise-in-sumy-with-drone-casualties-reported.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/10/us-iran-negotiations-in-islamabad-what-to-expect?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260410-iran-sets-preconditions-ahead-of-ceasefire-talks-as-vance-warns-tehran-not-to-play-us
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxPQ2d4akxuNWFVSkhyeUJpOHlJdExpc2ZkVW44NjNiVGJjdExCV3Nnam1iUklTTndtQ0xQOFB4UFA2VEtnX2lmSElETWxIeFpBQXdyQlR0NXBRNHZiWDN4ZHhINnRLSjhHdWNHMnlubmR5VWxpOUFuM1NtVkFCVENOMUlR?oc=5
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/trump-s-latest-global-tariffs-challenged-in-federal-court-friday
- [6] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-malgre-l-annonce-d-une-treve-pascale-le-service-de-securite-d-ukraine-appelle-la-population-a-rester-vigilante_6676836_3210.html
- [7] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-10/los-ultimos-ataques-israelies-en-libano-y-el-bloqueo-irani-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-ponen-en-peligro-las-negociaciones-de-paz.html
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-kyjiws-truppen-attackieren-russische-oelterminals-a-d4e9f8b2-892e-464c-9f38-5e258e66d585
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/we-are-loading-warships-with-best-weapons-trump-hints-at-big-op-if-iran-us-talks-fail/articleshow/130175216.cms
- [10] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-friday-10-april-2026-b2955434.html
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/05d6312f9e134201bb0b6f53f49d0ddf/c.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/10/new-tensions-emerge-before-us-iran-war-ceasefire-talks-in-pakistan?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxQN2p1TmlnSW85azJoOTM2MXFtSjNHS1RpN2piNXBkeUVGdHpORnd6TGkwVVJKTGh3UTc0dVY1d0NzaUJ4bzZqNXJ0QVJkaUFjNDZpRmdrWjd1UTV4eXNFTHhwUFFxSHBaVU82RVBDaWtieGxGNnMxVnMxbU80aUo1SGd3U2hMUUlyaWc1LWJyZXVDZ0VDVFhQdFUzd0dwSWRuS01ral9NS2U1RkE2NlN4cE5sNS0?oc=5
- [14] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/10/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-le-president-du-parlement-iranien-exige-un-cessez-le-feu-au-liban-et-le-deblocage-des-actifs-avant-toute-negociation_6676633_3210.html
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260410-us-and-iran-prepare-for-ceasefire-talks-as-netanyahu-authorises-negotiations-with-lebanon
- [16] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/inflation-trump-iran-war-usa-b2955258.html
- [17] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/sensex-jumps-919pts-as-west-asia-peace-plan-moves-ahead/articleshow/130182187.cms
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运停滞持续，全球石油供应面临中断风险。
- 中东停火协议执行分歧，黎巴嫩袭击可能引发冲突升级。
- 俄乌停火仅为短期，复活节后战事可能恢复，影响欧洲稳定。
- 特朗普言论扰动美伊关系，增加政策不确定性和贸易紧张。
- 美国强化金属进口措施，可能引发全球贸易保护主义升温。
- 伊朗战争暴露欧盟能源脆弱性，精炼产品短缺加剧通胀压力。
关联路径
美伊停火 / 地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌 / 股市上涨 / 避险资产需求下降
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
俄乌停火 / 地区紧张缓解 / 避险需求下降 / 风险资产反弹 / 欧元稳定
特朗普贸易政策 / 全球贸易紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 美元走强 / 大宗商品承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
参考链接
- [1] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5776818/wall-street-stocks-oil-trump-iran-ceasefire
- [2] https://unn.ua/news/putin-oholosyv-velykodnie-peremyria-z-ukrainoiu
- [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-us-war-west-asia-conflict-live-updates-on-april-9-2026/article70840935.ece
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/d037e456c7be42ed80a590404ec1bdde/c.html
- [5] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/strait-hormuz-shipping-traffic-effectively-standstill-iran-ceasefire-rcna267391
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260410000451315
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410083045iUE
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/this-is-america/2026/4/9/us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-over-whats-next?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/637877-iran-war-eu-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.dw.com/de/waffenruhe-trump-stellt-annäherung-mit-iran-in-aussicht/a-76701125?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-10/10601269.shtml
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxOUG43N0U2MXF3b3RKdnkwaTRPeDZhWm1QZjJBYUhyMHB1N0pRdFgxaXZMWGFwT2dSSHFiRHFhdFZEQm14UVc5RlRaclNSR0dHS2I3ei1IeVE1b2NRUjE5NDNqd01SQ1lyTUZZam5WbmI0NlEzNmdTWUxFaWhSdmxzQndlYk1aOTFITHdISHB4RWZQTVlnZnMwLVhTV1RWUFFvSkdlUlNaeUYxMl9qRG9TdThRWGFieDJISndiei1UTGczUkxYYTBOTW1RNA?oc=5
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260410/f1a5072f1da04bd588110bf9c7bb5a9f/c.html
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4110989-putin-announces-easter-ceasefire.html
- [15] https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/04/09/2026-06960/strengthening-actions-taken-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-steel-and-copper-into-the-united-states
- [16] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-pohodyvsia-na-velykodnie-peremyria-yake-oholosyv-putin-ta-zaiavyv-pro-hotovnist-do-dzerkalnykh-krokiv
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/putin-declares-ceasefire-in-ukraine-for-orthodox-easter/article70844673.ece
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/be450cc8cf7d4952b19e8c0e2a8b768d/c.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260410080207ixS
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/637873-america-has-reached-limits/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-09
2026-04-09
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级威胁全球能源安全
- 美国退出北约风险加剧地缘紧张
- 伊朗报复行动可能破坏停火协议
- 霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭影响石油供应
- 以色列与黎巴嫩冲突进一步扩大风险
- 美伊谈判破裂可能性
关联路径
海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 央行政策响应
美伊谈判 / 地缘风险缓解 / 油价下跌和风险资产上涨
美元下跌 / 全球流动性改善 / 股市上涨
北约解体风险 / 地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/c45d7601476d458ea57a85851efbc952/c.html
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600672.shtml
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637771-us-isral-iran-ceasefire-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQM0M4QVNLMzRVZGI1YTVINHdJUWZFYU5DbEs5NjBxNVNkXzU2YUw0VDNlMXE3NTg2ZTRucjRaLXVBc19aaTF5RTA5Q1ZFOTlpZ2NYVUpqUFhMMERzRW5SdVV5dzUyajZLaVowRFR6WTM0Sks5MFFsb3NlYnRyR1lsTUdLaVBsejlaamtFcEUtODZHcjk4cjBIa2tnekhrZWpFTDlj?oc=5
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260409070324dDx
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/trump-administration-says-it-is-mulling-nato-withdrawal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/4294f804a81c42af86e0af9172b98888/c.html
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/04-09/10600695.shtml
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/65e4ed07bbbd4ed4a2d01a8c03640431/c.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/637763-why-iran-looks-winner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQUllNR1JLdmFuV2FFOTVNQVc0UEFwWkhtbXVxTEJFcVA0bWVKenJJYWlRSElYaDU1WDg4VkVJajZiQ1hNd0d5VWFPNE40YlZYYWhPN0Z5TnZsbksydlplVmU1VWc0Ulc5cEd6MTk0MzhCSWZPX0ViQWc5eldQTUNiMlFmbWRpbC1hWDBRallTeFNsTUpHOWh6Wk0yT0FxOEcta1Y2WWl3?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/8/trump-has-found-his-iran-off-ramp-but-at-what-cost?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260409/fae39f2b949e4afd9c1d92b275cbc5f2/c.html
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-09/10600691.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600689.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-09/10600685.shtml
- [17] https://www.news.cn/world/20260409/560122b87c614361b1028d6d3d7c9d1d/c.html
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c1abc49b173845e99a5c8994d1391518/c.html
- [19] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/e435b5af7fff443c85477fa3acb93775/c.html
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260408/c7c27550cf9147f6845906a92171ec14/c.html
2026-04-08
2026-04-08
进展要点
- 两周停火窗口期内，任何擦枪走火或谈判僵局都可能导致战事全面重启。
- 伊朗内部强硬派可能反对让步，最高国安会仅称“保持警戒”，协议执行风险高。
- 以色列虽跟随美国暂停行动，但其对伊朗重工业目标的空袭（据China News Serv...
- 哈尔克岛等关键能源设施遭袭，若损毁严重将长期影响全球石油供应。
- 美国内政治分歧（如共和党异议）可能限制特朗普政府达成长期协议的能力。
关联路径
中东冲突烈度 / 霍尔木兹海峡通航状况 / 全球石油实际供应与预期 / 油价 / 全球通胀与央行政策路径
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘政治风险溢价 / 全球避险情绪 / 黄金、美元、国债等资产价格
冲突外溢风险 / 区域稳定与全球贸易通道安全 / 供应链成本与全球增长预期 / 周期性资产表现
美国内政治对伊政策分歧 / 政策连贯性与可信度 / 美元资产长期吸引力与风险溢价
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / detikNews / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOQWdMR2RQZEpSSnE3R1BPd1dPVVNvX21tYjhCbFZjcVJRMkozZVFxc3NKUFZid19fMTBZR2Zia3lhbmtLbDlXV21fSERfY3JNYkhEMktlNHZKVXdzaEk4UGlkcDBienpZWjl2OHpwQW9pRnBBaUh2aU5sQlBsVlNkM1FLLVowRXB4WFhWc2g3dmQxYjZzelJzNWhXRlROZjFmN2psUkJWbS1NcHF0?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260408000339Jrv
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/637586-us-strikes-irans-kharg-island-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8433834/as-israel-serang-pulau-kharg-hingga-jembatan-di-iran-jelang-deadline-trump
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600068.shtml
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/d18e8a525d8f4ff289dc27c811313025/c.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/7/trump-agrees-to-pause-attacks-on-iran-if-strait-of-hormuz-opens?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4110231-slidom-za-ssa-izrail-tez-pogodivsa-na-dva-tizni-pripiniti-bojovi-dii-proti-iranu-cnn.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/08/irans-aussenminister-kuendigt-oeffnung-der-strasse-von-hormus-an
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r40y3rv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/iran-war-trump-us-israel-oil-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-announces-two-week-ceasefire/live-76700191?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202604072357426WW
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-08/10600071.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxPTm1PeUtWSkM2Q01OaUZfME5YM3F4WDNnVXQtT01LQUFWbGNEWkF6ZjZDdWNsNDQ0bFBybUxhSEo5UUV0Vm1TS3BhUXNGWDZXOXJzNXRLODVqd2Z4aURvRTFqRGZDSWhLeEUyVmk5X0tqZGRfWDFvd005cXpoYUNLWFJjeU1lRkx5bmZOdHgzcjB2U0Z6SnE4Z3VSdUlWMmhYX2lVaA?oc=5
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260407/797d2505268b4defb0b9a7e2b0e8ddf3/c.html
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8434046/trump-tangguhkan-serangan-dewan-keamanan-iran-tangan-kita-di-pelatuk
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/world/middleeast/trump-iran-2-week-ceasefire.html
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/637638-trump-iran-ceacefire-extension/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-04-07
2026-04-07
进展要点
- 以色列与伊朗军事冲突可能升级为地区战争。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险，影响全球20%石油运输。
- 乌克兰持续袭击俄罗斯能源设施，加剧欧洲能源危机。
- 伊朗内部集会支持领导层，冲突长期化风险增加。
- 美国特朗普政府威胁打击民用基础设施，冲突人道风险上升。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀加剧 / 央行政策收紧 / 经济增长放缓
美伊谈判破裂 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 油价飙升 / 避险资产需求上升 / 股市下跌
乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设施 / 欧洲能源危机恶化 / 欧元区通胀压力 / 欧央行政策响应
伊朗内部不稳定 / 地区冲突扩散 / 石油生产国风险溢价上升 / 大宗商品波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / ANTARA News / Die Zeit Politics / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260407000106tbx
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-wFBVV95cUxNZFFCRlBwWHNqMUpxQWFwUTVHS3Jld3BVY2ExUFNJRDNUWUx2X3FpM1dtX3dfQ1hzaEhVejlGcDZSa2hVRjZuZnNOTXFudEM4dUFlRHJWWE1PV2lfTFpoMlVCVl91ZWdEZHZPY2E4V3h3dEh6UzhoQ1JRd01DM3BsYjZLbTVDWmM5YmU0eFB0LWNINTVlenFMS0wxZ1RnZFF3U25XdlZqeGlhbzlmN3Y1c3hoYzctcHVGV05zN2hCLUJZcFBFazJzLWNkemt5d0dzdE50amU3M3NobllWTjVlTkd3UXpBbENOM3lPajMwN0xocGxPcDlEMXp0QQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599509.shtml
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/where-are-irans-power-plants-that-trump-has-threatened-to-destroy?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/637429-iran-night-demonstrations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5514373/irgc-selat-hormuz-tak-akan-pernah-kembali-ke-kondisi-sebelumnya
- [7] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/iran-madschid-chademi-geheimdienstchef-revolutionsgarden
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4109748-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-novorossiysk-oil-terminal-and-be12-amphibious-aircraft.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224226NBH
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQMnpFd1FWT0JmYXNZMmd5MTVzdm84bnEtS1N3Wm44a0Nrb2NCV2NXeG5DY2hsSWJYYWFFYjB5SksyMWNfdEJPQXhka1hDTGxPUGQzaWNVSEd1bkt4UWJUTEFsTEJFeDhiT1ZTT0dRejV6M2NfMTh6TWxDN2M5YU85UWR3aFU3Q2RpcTRQTHZyYnBMT3hIMk5jdnlvMHphWFUyZXZvMU5YS1I1V3JlOVQ3S1RR0gG3AUFVX3lxTFBTWEEtS0pNcGZsWUdRUHVDQlJLSVJMM0gtc3ZZWldYOHZ3b1l6QUltMjlNcXBKbUxIVlFDQi1PUjd4WnFmWFp3aFZCemhwcEtVdnJsX1ppeGZGUjFtTXAzUkw1Ql9RYS0xc1J3VnFDREFxbmgtcGctQjBTWC04RXNsRWFIZk9hYm5Wa0NDM0NmdndsamxjXy1FakpSYW5hQTk
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5514365/as-israel-serang-30-universitas-di-iran-sejak-awal-konflik-28-februari
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/6/ukraine-strikes-russian-black-sea-energy-hub-novorossiysk?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599512.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406235051YOT
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260407000948Iak
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPeEtPRS00QThJQ3gxWUM1MXpENklRekdZWTlsZ1l0ejN6NFlwaVZ5RG9HdmdoQmxBalFHM1FlRWZfS3BMLURnSS1sc2VOUXF2OW03S3lYSW5vb0ZRVVdmX29FUkNSd3MtVzJoWjRmd2laVW13R0xCam9ESTRmZDZtUWtvcTBXaDBrVWVwWTFPOUEtT1M3MzRIS1hnTG1BMEFrX0VqRXR5azRzQlBxZm15eFktTFVYYk9lVTFoR1Vab3R0STdoLXc?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPR2JlSVpraHJZeDN5MFFBOHRMLWk0VEt5NEFPSnVwa1pCTHI0eDJ3Q0tiREdpSzRGYmlCcm9wQ3pDX3lkVHZGejYwMGxDYXVnZU5OMFBEYTIyc3RDRTBWNnpfQ0phb1NMM2Nrd3JJWkw3QkVKX3J1LVRPZUZSTGtJNUhYNlBPYjBQ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/6/in-maps-and-photos-five-iranian-civilian-bridges-at-risk-of-us-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406224344Cz8
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxQYkg1WnlBNjRXLXdHclNNd1pyRi10LUt6VlF1TDB0UHdqUF9FYUhFQjVmZ0doQ2prUnBBYUk4a3JjalFxYjUyZmEyVk4zejR3ZDlERnM0RTJfbVVQaHBkbjYtV1VpMkRKeEYtVmdWeEh4Y3pKYjNIZ0o1WXNSMzVjU2VQc1MzUFNrUEpQS2Zacmxod1Z0LUllVUd0c3FuSUp4QWxSMFVPY21tYTI4elBMSm0yTlN1WU1L0gG-AUFVX3lxTE1sU2pETk50dU5nclhCYndfWllvTXkxNk9lcjFHdnJJclItU2hUWUlMWXRBSW96R3lNdW9fSTVNaEVuZTF5cWJacjNFMWc3b1J4RFhNZGRXS0lmRjBIWENVQnFkUXJySWI5SmR6cXozVWMyYWRTZDNyTDhZMEt0YWlZajJ0UGdGaE1IRGJMckRjYzdtTnhWclc3bXR
2026-04-06
2026-04-06
进展要点
- 伊朗战争升级可能引发美国军事打击，导致霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭。
- 伊朗袭击科威特等海湾国家能源设施，扩大地区冲突并威胁全球石油供应。
- 乌克兰远程打击俄罗斯卢克石油炼油厂（LIGA.net Politics News）。
- 美以联合攻击伊朗可能触发伊朗对以色列或美国盟友的报复行动。
- 伊朗拒绝最后通牒显示强硬立场，增加谈判破裂和全面冲突风险。
关联路径
伊朗冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀上升
美伊军事对抗 / 中东不稳定 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
OPEC+增产 / 供应增加预期 / 油价波动 / 风险资产调整
地缘政治紧张 / 全球增长担忧 / 股市下跌和债券收益率下降
来源
Yonhap News TV / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Ukrinform / El Mundo - International News / ORF.at News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260406075350GcU
- [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/04/05/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-donald-trump-repousse-l-ultimatum-adresse-a-mardi-soir-vous-allez-voir-des-ponts-et-des-centrales-electriques-s-effondrer-a-travers-tout-le-pays_6676633_3210.html
- [3] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-04-04/ultima-hora-de-la-guerra-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/6/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-trumps-tuesday-deadline-on-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9xQUhSalZYRUpHRTR4a1dtUktxeU5ULTRnNS1vR0RONkxhaTNFZzBwOVBQbTk5Y2QxbkJoczlnaWZBcmdkWlN1cEI3WWN6T2U1ZFRwYnVUZDBWZw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4109433-tramp-ogolosiv-novij-krajnij-termin-dla-iranu-sob-rozblokuvati-ormuzku-protoku.html
- [7] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13b44e4d4d89b5e8b4587.html
- [8] https://orf.at/stories/3426028
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/opec-foerderung-erdoel-iran-krise
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-06/10599292.shtml
- [11] https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story?id=131744086
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0q6wdzp1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://news.liga.net/war/news/ofitsialno-ukraina-nanesla-udar-po-zavodu-lukoila-bolee-chem-v-1000-km-ot-linii-soprikosnoveniya
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260406091907xC4
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxNa0YxRFgzNTB6RTIxbVFKbURISmpWM2R4Y1N0VUlzamhJQjU0dUdyU1YyMmJIRHpiREoxSzJlN0hFanE0OENZcWZ4WUtRVnhVRmtLb011eGxIWFd4bUd0eGhXdUptaVFjOC1sWTdsWnF3ZkdKQjdLallNZXVsOGM5SFRtVmtEWkdCRE5jcnlBU0htNndib0V0aGtXUmtIRGpiQU5pZFJJaENtWFVzZXlCX0VoZHFBdThxZHozSUR3RzhBZGM?oc=5
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/04/69d13870e9cf4a79038b457f.html
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-04/donald-trump-iran-ultimatum-hormus
2026-04-05
2026-04-05
进展要点
- 美伊军事冲突升级，可能引发全面战争和地区不稳定。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险，威胁全球石油供应安全。
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突持续，东欧地缘政治风险高企。
- 中东代理冲突扩散，伊朗向海湾国家发出最后通牒要求驱逐美军。
- 中美贸易摩擦加剧，可能导致全球供应链中断。
- 美国通胀因地缘冲突飙升，增加经济不确定性。
- 美国总统特朗普声称伊朗多名军事领导人在一次大规模袭击中被消灭，并分享了爆炸视频，但未提供具体细节。此前伊朗对海湾国家、伊拉克和以色列发动导弹袭击，并击落一架美国F-15战机，双方互相威胁...
- 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发布视频，宣称在一次针对伊朗德黑兰的大规模袭击中击毙了多名伊朗军事领导人。
关联路径
美伊紧张 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
贸易制裁 / 全球供应链风险 / 股市波动
国防支出增加 / 财政赤字扩大 / 利率压力
来源
China News Service / Times of India / Google News - World / detikNews / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / O Globo Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/watch-trump-claims-many-of-irans-military-leaders-killed-in-massive-strike-shares-video/articleshow/130029871.cms
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598980.shtml
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxPOTB5bHJDZGp3M2ZVSUpJeGZnTDFvOGFhMDh6ODlDTlotQnlwVnJ4d1lPZTZCSV9CblY3V1hSeEFpOGZHVWViUEJYeVVPc0h2d3UwOUN0YXJTMG1fWm8xOTRhOG1Ld3U1eWdZY0RvX1VhbDB6RWRSZzh2YnJ6M05JQWVzMWRHWFdWQUtVdExRcU9jZ0ZPUDhJaDJkTGJIVXBFLUU3TXpaakpfSFVYOWFxYzVlTW5KTEk1ek9Zc3ZuVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429643/hari-kelam-as-israel-saat-2-jet-tempur-dan-3-drone-dilumpuhkan-iran
- [5] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/ataque-de-israel-a-petroqumicas-no-ir-deixa-ao-menos-cinco-mortos-e-170-feridos.ghtml
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-proposes-expanding-chinese-141748633.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y90jl8veyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/04/04/inflacao-dos-eua-deve-disparar-na-primeira-leitura-desde-a-guerra-com-o-ira.ghtml
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260404-trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-a-deal-as-search-continues-for-missing-us-pilot
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/4/tehran-psychiatric-hospital-not-usable-after-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-gives-iran-48-hours-to-make-deal-or-face-hell/article70824622.ece
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/white-house-asks-record-breaking-15-trillion-defense/story?id=131683487
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-05/10598976.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNWkNya1ZKR25aN2tadGxuN25YX3JyY29KTGprQXpPY3ZydVBaUmdjRFdCWko4NnE1QUp5d2V6UFM3TkZRZG5ZZ1RHeUgzT1ZxS0RkcnFfcW42LTlId2xUWXNKcW9JX1BHR1pwWFEwVWNZdjMxV1FUNnI1R2V0N0ZreElnSnFVZGhXbFBVSGdERFlnSVB5NHk2UmFkeE5ZRjI3MFQ0?oc=5
- [15] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/nova-etapa-de-ataques-dos-eua-ao-ira-deve-usar-quase-todo-o-estoque-de-misseis-de-cruzeiros-disponivel-no-pais.ghtml
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/universities-hit-as-us-israel-ramp-up-attacks-on-irans-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-8429487/tuan-rumah-pangkalan-militer-as-dapat-ultimatum-dari-iran
- [18] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/04/israel-se-prepara-para-atacar-instalaes-de-energia-do-ir-e-aguarda-aprovao-dos-eua-diz-fonte.ghtml
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2k1dgz142o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-04-04
2026-04-04
进展要点
- 美伊冲突可能进一步升级，导致更大规模军事对抗和地区不稳定。
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续，影响全球石油供应和贸易，加剧通胀压力。
- 波兰提升防空警戒，显示俄乌冲突外溢效应，增加东欧紧张局势。
- 美军高层动荡，参谋长辞职，可能影响美国军事决策和信任危机。
- 伊朗威胁报复，可能针对以色列或海湾国家能源设施，扩大冲突范围。
- 中东战火外溢至全球经济，通过供应链冲击引发衰退风险。
- 伊朗击落一架美军战机，并袭击了科威特的石油设施，同时美国威胁升级对伊朗的打击，导致地区紧张局势加剧。
- 伊朗继续对以色列及其海湾阿拉伯邻国施压，尽管美国和以色列坚称伊朗的军事能力已基本被摧毁。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球贸易中断 / 经济放缓和市场避险
美国就业数据强劲 / 美联储加息预期 / 美元升值
地缘紧张 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
China News Service / RT News / Global News / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/637187-iran-war-us-oil-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758305/iran-gulf-targets-us-israel-strike-war
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/03/inteligncia-dos-eua-alerta-que-improvvel-que-ir-reduza-bloqueio-de-ormuz-em-breve-dizem-fontes.ghtml
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNTXZ4cTczUHBOZUIxaEcyYTBrOEF3bm1YZ2RyLVVRNGl6N2pKdElTWHZQN1Zyd3FyS2E4Ym9fZTBTUzYtSnRvaC00ZzRYcWVkRHV4T0lRUml0cndLeFZYanN5N3ZveXJweXFMZXVsN2VvZkJWQUJGeWxIa3JXbWZEd3hqYmJNXzN4MWdISm9qcGNsZGtf?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-04/10598639.shtml
- [6] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/04/03/69cff685e9cf4a23268b4578.html
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/4/3/will-force-be-used-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108963-vdalosa-vratuvati-odnogo-z-pilotiv-amerikanskogo-vinisuvaca-zbitogo-nad-iranom-zmi.html
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260404015744gyX
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cly68eg7px6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-fighter-jet-iran-raf-b1277613.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-one-downed-us-fighter-jet-pilot-rescued/live-76649854?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://elpais.com/mexico/2026-04-03/estados-unidos-suma-inesperadamente-178000-puestos-de-trabajo-en-marzo.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/3/survivors-of-iran-bridge-attack-recall-terror-of-us-israeli-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNV2k3RzVva0hYbF9UM20yYzBfaVlBOHRVQ1BSQ3NWUU54MlJFM0M4WHRoUm1zSThjUVlxZTNKSnEwNzNlZklDT0RhSVJzanlJdDNoLXNDcGdYT2RxMVZsVTIyUVRJZUZ2Z2xSdm9WVEtvM1dfSkJuV19uQ25HTGNRZ3JaSDVWb1ljQ0EyNg?oc=5
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10598635.shtml
- [17] https://globalnews.ca/news/11758492/iran-us-fighter-jet
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4108911-polsa-pidijmala-vinisuvaci-cerez-rosijskij-masovanij-obstril-ukraini.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403235949ayF
2026-04-03
2026-04-03
进展要点
- 中东冲突扩大至整个地区，可能引发更广泛战争
- 霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗监管或封锁，全球石油供应中断风险
- 美伊军事冲突升级，伊朗报复行动威胁美军基地和盟友
- 英国与盟友制裁伊朗，可能加剧地缘政治紧张
- 美国贸易保护主义政策引发全球贸易战风险
- 欧盟内部对俄制裁分歧，能源危机加剧经济不稳定
- 联合国警告全球冲突风险上升，国际协调失效
- 伊朗征收霍尔木兹海峡通行费，增加航运成本和不确定性
关联路径
伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡干扰 / 石油供应减少 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀上升
美国加征药品关税 / 贸易紧张加剧 / 供应链中断 / 避险情绪升温 / 股市下跌
中东冲突升级 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
制裁讨论 / 航运风险 / 能源成本上升 / 经济增长放缓 / 央行政策调整
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/2/oil-shock-triggers-global-price-spikes-as-iran-war-drags-on?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260403090743K1l
- [3] https://globalnews.ca/news/11757640/donald-trump-tariffs-pharmacutical-drugs-steel-aluminum-copper
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d0md89v2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/04-03/10597911.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWkhISW1vdTUyWGpsZXhEVXNmeXJxbEVIeFFsaGcwY01WWmRiaUZHYUJ3TE5zX0s3OUZIVmY4dGNkNFIxZ2wtd2tFWV9vdWg3TkttWGZBTWYxcklKNk90VE1uZHhkS0ZyX1JvYTdmYUtsQVlSWEoyc004NmhSTWlNcmx6SVlrUTVx?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/637100-orban-eu-ditch-russia-sanctions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260403/662cabeae8c34e56b0bd2499be4bf50c/c.html
- [9] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-04/usa-zoelle-donald-trump-arzneimittel-stahl
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Apr/02/trump-says-us-destroyed-irans-tallest-bridge-tehran-attacks-american-fighter-jets-at-jordan-airbase
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4108544-un-secretarygeneral-warns-world-on-edge-of-wider-war.html
- [12] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/liberation-day-one-year-later-protecting-american-jobs-and-delivering-greater-market-access-american
- [13] https://orf.at/stories/3425775
- [14] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yvette-cooper-iran-foreign-secretary-strait-of-hormuz-tehran-b1277524.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260403091250TSJ
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/trump-unveils-100-percent-tariff-on-drugs-to-push-for-pharmaceutical-deals?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/04-03/10597907.shtml
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-04/02/100-prozent-auf-arznei-us-regierung-erhebt-neue-zoelle
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQczRQTWhBdHIxRWliUHFoUElFTUZPR19PTC1DbG0xN01sOWpKWmFtQkxnZ2NZMkMxMTlSSm8tZ3dsRi05bWNtOWl3R05ORTN4LTQwVXAtVnI1OWY0Y0JSU1dTaFh3d0xKZGh0ekdiOWJBOVUwSm40QUc5LTFvV3hGem4zcTNRZGpMUGQzMEo1b3hiLUtwQWw0WGxWUzlzTFVNdlBnaEV3MmQxWlBSaXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlg4ejJxSEZqeUlZX1RaNmdJc21NWXRwUXFLRV8yWGJZc0hTblBoa1hEY0ZmV2FiNzI1S1BDTGdxaUl5RUR6YVpoMGZ5cUJscWJlbS1OcE1BN1FXVTFBSU1Ubm5ycVQxeGZfbUR3aHl0ekZOS0NrYXFWVVc5TXotY2FITFFHSWM5cmxzVWxXT2IwSVdFb0EzQi1BcEF2dEhwX3Y2V1V
- [20] https://globalnews.ca/news/11756857/gas-prices-easter-long-weekend
2026-04-02
2026-04-02
进展要点
- 伊朗战争可能进一步升级，导致更多伤亡和基础设施破坏
- 特朗普威胁退出北约，引发全球安全秩序崩溃风险
- 霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，全球石油供应面临中断威胁
- 俄乌冲突外溢，中东战事可能影响乌克兰防空和外交努力
- 美国与欧洲关系紧张，影响全球协调应对危机
- 能源危机蔓延，西方经济面临衰退风险
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
特朗普北约言论 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动
能源危机 / 西方经济衰退风险 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
俄乌冲突外溢 / 地缘风险加剧 / 黄金和美元上涨
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / PBS NewsHour / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/2/iran-war-live-trump-to-address-nation-tehran-denies-seeking-ceasefire?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/33177de39fe3445f9a61ae9037bade69/c.html
- [3] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260401/9c763c423582452e84358382a1d6fbf7/c.html
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78l70g124jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/5c76f8eba9eb47b092d05f092929af41/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260402/e724e267b7fe4019b374dadc569c27b4/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/a2fef62739bd4b41a0bea9e0cf206c9a/c.html
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2489v97842o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-signals-iran-war-could-end-soon-but-gives-mixed-signals-on-how
- [10] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-zrobyv-zaiavu-shchodo-vykhodu-ssha-z-nato
- [11] https://unn.ua/news/sohodni-dovoli-nasychenyi-dyplomatychnyi-den-zelenskyi-nazvav-masovanu-ataku-rf-rosiiskoiu-vidpoviddiu-na-dyplomatiiu
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE4xb3ZESG5sSVBvUldEcWdRUXVkc3d0QmtzTkJNOVR2bWl4MGVxZVNmQWhROEhoVEVvYkFYdVFUajBzaWFPc2w4RHNaY2t6WDM5bmo3SUdWV3U4NzFjcjA3OEp6UnEyV1ZlUEZ1YWpwaV83VXkzQjl0Z3F4eXNtQ1E?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQbXpVX3k4YXdlNko5NE1jZkFoRGNnTXVGcnhPbDJ1dXdoQVBLeml2bmRKMEhuUXhzTzhoZ2Nuck12ZWg5Ti1jaVpXNjI0dHVsdnpNaGZUejU1V1FWaFUyRjJQUFE5cktuMDhoVFhYcy1wbWRYLWRsc0dURDlHa0Y2RTBHQ2FVSGg1VGE3amVKbXRqczBKT3ZyY0Zrc2pZeWhoVnpz0gGoAUFVX3lxTE9Tc1NqbERCYXZDY0F0cU93NmR2S2xfMWRnZkRHSllKcHdYaHY1bVNva25XSGIybkhPQVlLZjAwTkNIYzFrYUY1YWsyTV9NRTU4OWptUjhFY3NQZTRGdkVYOE5LWHA4bmZvU0NSNVRoME5fV1cxZmgtYnFrbUlPTVRJdG1lVHcxNmdZUEktTkZhWG1jOUoxdmJrR3UtVlhFRVVDUEJmSi1TNw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4108174-tramp-vistupit-sogodni-vveceri-zi-zvernennam-pro-peremogu-u-vijni-proti-iranu-politico.html
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOVnBCaHJjSm1wOHRTS2c1UmhYWXlyeFBwUWxmUTdUenh3NGxKeEJRcURKVEFjWDBwdXJvZHQ5NWFvNTBHNGZrNXFWdjR6Q2R0MDlicHUtYkVIWGtYaGVKZnVvcmZDWWhrcDhqaTBqMFd6ZzdROVFxNjRuZHBIVVdfb2c0aUNQbThDREc3Z1VfTm8yZ3ZzS0lXT0c0VkZvLVBwU2RDNkU3b0FFa3daY25ISg?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQd3pIQndwVTNkZFgzZUVqQmFldUQ4Q2RvR0Y4dkdnb3Z5NGloNllJWlUzY0QtYldPT05tSjYya0hxMmVaY20walNxeWZ5X0FOWkc1QnFlMWV3eERxVGZpSXlXbmZoS2thaVhTQ1FnU3NfeGlMeHNld1lvUTdmSTNyNNIBhgFBVV95cUxNblp6MFR0azlvSWlfOXZYSlQ0Q0hsT1lkS1BXN2lTODlHMmdENFdKZWZ4Zlk1VGhpWUtRamNjaFRScG9ycWU5Q0JLTDhvM3lXbkxVWTNISjRSVUF3cjJjeVpRUDlNdWdLU1NZY0NDYlQ3UUhXbV9GVVVkSjJGSGFaSV82WF9ZZw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOQUtoOFhoajBOVWFhRUhJc3pxREFDQUt4ZzRJRmFXSHc4OE1WcHRvWElsMTdiVUtZeFNzZGFmOW95c2ZGcWRFRURoVTlvd1FqeUNDNWZYMjBjTURmUWFJNGpZaTBwaFZYNzFqc1FTdkdRT1RqVDBUc3JGOTh4OFprWWdSajlxS0NDRmJjUy01blVUX29reTRNZEM2cjFJMTUxaWlQWTVmMA?oc=5
- [18] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/ahead-of-national-address-trump-says-strait-of-hormuz-must-be-open-free-and-clear-before-ceasefire-talks-161325922.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/smoke-and-embers-seen-over-irans-isfahan-after-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-sohodni-oholosyt-pro-zavershennia-viiny-z-iranom-ta-vysune-ultymatum-nato-politico
- [21] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/rssia-diz-que-assumiu-o-controle-total-da-regio-de-luhansk-no-leste-da-ucrnia.ghtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOZms5Smk3QThZbjZrNndNN0JzVHVXWlBZZlRiRmdxQWNfMVJheFhOX0VHWFlJSFljTG1FUnFXbFR5WkQ5a1JjU0Z5ZmpiRUNiTlJIVDN4QXpUdmplMkZBNlVPeXl2NzYxNDMyalJiOVJ1a3V2ZVJkM1hlZTdILVZfdDM0ZXlCT0RuM05SUmVrbmYxY3J3N0w5LXMxOGFyeENlWTFQYVZJVkdhQ0w2eDRkaG5KSG5IaWd5U3hQSFRxWm8?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNcjRCbG93VGRqVlVZeWpyLWtxcXJSbEtFX0d1VE5PQ2VnaGYyVktxMDhFVlQ0a1A4QnlhUjU2SVlSVWlucU5QdkEzZWFMblZQcmVmYVBhN2N4dm52SXRCS0dYZGdmRWdfazNqUU8xZVY0TUY1R3N5czc3MXdWQ2pYLVhWZmlTblIxbm55RFhTdk1FS1Z6THE4MTRTOVp4aWtGdDg3RFhpZEVGaHNmRVB6RHc4ZEVjb2prcXFNa01OVDJFUnY1aEE?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/4/1/central-israel-hit-by-one-of-irans-largest-missile-barrages-in-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://unn.ua/news/rosiia-vidpovila-masovanoiu-atakoiu-droniv-na-propozytsiiu-ukrainy-pro-velykodnie-peremyria-zelenskyi
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/636985-starmer-albanese-iran-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBCel9UNjBCMnFjc2tsQVBmVFpSX3BPbjh3bzVFRFc3QklvQmpaRUZiNGxpZmVqb1VQM0hGRWJ4NWFscHVrSGNtNzV4VDZPLUpiTklnZkVOUzZDUQ?oc=5
- [28] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/04/01/trump-ameaca-cortar-armas-para-ucrania-se-europa-nao-apoiar-coalizao-para-ormuz.ghtml
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636981-iran-war-us-israel-trump/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.npr.org/2026/04/01/nx-s1-5770093/trump-address-iran-war
2026-04-01
2026-04-01
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗管控，威胁全球石油运输安全
- 以色列七线作战，军力与财政压力可能加剧冲突蔓延
- 伊朗威胁打击中东地区的美国科技公司，增加地缘紧张
- 美欧关系恶化，可能削弱全球安全框架和联盟稳定性
- 俄罗斯和中东国家的外交介入可能改变地区力量平衡
关联路径
中东地缘政治事件 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策反应
北约联盟动态 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产流向
能源价格变化 / 消费者信心和经济活动 / 企业盈利和市场情绪
来源
Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / O Globo Politics / EL PAÍS América / The New Indian Express
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/us-israel-launch-major-attacks-as-iranian-authorities-maintain-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4c4cac52441b485dbd6a8df270ff155b/c.html
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/38b5771ae34c407f81670651669100ff/c.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/732d80efd7f9462f8d3b745e1ee64101/c.html
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/4fa12e0e7874490a86812ff9c4188bb1/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/18d6a28a2bc847bdb7d6e8b8bdc7b7fe/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260401/8f2ffd6270b542fba98a9d8cbae5a0b7/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/048988fff40141b7aecf9cd2c5373dfb/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/55e6f8748c3a4d8faeec9c26b56c1f89/c.html
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/trump-says-us-will-be-leaving-iran-in-two-to-three-weeks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/636893-nato-without-america-shift/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/31/after-strait-of-hormuz-opens-turmoil-would-still-last-months-analysts-say?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/eu-warns-oil-and-gas-prices-wont-quickly-return-to-normal-after-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOdDBCeWVSazlVOWZVR2JNQkVxbTloSjAtOUZtaDBadkwzNW9zZHcyWHNQaFhqNGJYQm1kMlp6UEkxLWRaU1FBLVBmYUNMMEs3UUFSejJpVjMzclFkcjl2Yl8wZ3p5a0N5Tm9TWGNyS3htQ3haRFVlb1g4T3V2ejJGSHhIZlExR01kNDFHU0tydk9BWWswV0R6QjJVWFp0VnhLWVhpdXVmN3A1elpyRXdoQXRKTGJ4dw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPTGI1RDRzSnZ0MW9jTlhyd0tGNFdjQk5EQkwtS3U3UjJXUzFxR05NRVlmT01WLUtEeGlTZzhiUExVbEpENElQT05YckFqcS1URTRZQUZtMzZ1UF9YSXFUYVNlT2ttbjRaTFlhUXVkQmJHVV9oUUFtNjA2N1VzVFpOS0QxNFkzeWozYmFOYWx0bFZ3YzJESUtxZ2RfREtYR2RiaWFQS2VBRzdhcUpUNTBVRGQyMkYweHFHd0Ew?oc=5
- [16] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-rushes-to-set-up-refund-portal-to-pay-back-166bn-in-trump-tariffs
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE53b3lVZW5GdzFVOU5YSGZoOFJDVWNORVl2SHZZTjBQNjhlY05tY2R6RzdpcF9yWWxEMUZ4MllSNU92SDhnRkQ3clBsZU5lV3ltcVA5YllGWVlOemV1TzlEZ2stNk5XMU1uZ3hsVTMzQXJOWFN5eEVmS2F1SkVjQms?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxQTEJJSWs3ZWoxYi1rSWs2YXd3VWFMNGs0UEtERkM5OVcwNm44V3dxcVd0anUzb3A1SFZ0MndLU3dHYnROR1FaekxYNDRPaUlMTUQtbHlFWDZXajhWeXRKRmJfUDVnSTYwSDdBX3h6eHVLNncxU2NsSS1zYjcwUzd4MnZwMTdqM1BwaTNNR3BOcEQwdw?oc=5
- [19] https://oglobo.globo.com/blogs/miriam-leitao/post/2026/03/crise-do-petroleo-uniao-europeia-ja-pede-menos-viagens-de-aviao-e-mais-home-office.ghtml
- [20] https://elpais.com/economia/2026-03-31/wall-street-sube-y-el-petroleo-cae-ante-la-disposicion-de-iran-de-negociar-el-fin-del-conflicto.html
- [21] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/we-changed-face-of-middle-east-netanyahu-says-war-on-iran-not-over
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/636876-putin-steps-up-iran-war-live-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/31/hiring-in-the-us-drops-to-pandemic-lows-as-job-market-under-trump-stagnates?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/31/whats-behind-donald-trumps-interest-in-irans-kharg-island?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/31/china-pakistan-outline-five-point-plan-to-end-us-israel-war-on-iran
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE90dHZRdWlORGY0UVFheG5CTUVaYXhmZ2xsdHpzTERQaUMtUjllc0lXMC1udVJMTlJFVTB5ckljUGx5RFZuREtab2JVcVRRNDBiUi1mV3o0NV9FWGlsRHlRY0lXNGFZRjA?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9MYWZqOWJKMmJsOWl2ZmtOcG1qUHlLWk02b1NzUlFvU2Z0ZVRTaFpYZHRZX01URFM2OExMUmNQTGRWU1NFNlQxMkxpa292TDRYbWJMSGw1R2htR3lpT1l0WHVIY2hkNHN4OWxXckcyanNNdzhlMkRla3IzTXp2YVk?oc=5
- [28] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-plunges-stocks-soar-after-iranian-president-offers-first-signs-of-willingness-to-end-war-with-us-183158792.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNTkNSR1NUcVd4NEkyRXN6TTVBZFVvNEFKZHRJc0RqMjBmVTR6eXBRVVFKeDcwLXA3YmlrQUYxZDlFa1hSb2h1TS03LXVnNy1SellPczFibzVEWUVfSW1XLThHZkZnWG42WENKN1F0NWtMNTJ3TEotaE5GbFdiVXVjNHdrUkhXaWl2V0pwWU5ucDJoRWs5VUlPVHFvT1k5UTcxMWNXV0FjX2I2b19WMXc?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNZnctT3ZsYkZIVFJPUXNFb1pvWDRxWDJxWjlkM0JmZHlOenltb2dnZVQyYUVCaXE1aVowZkowSlA1eUNRa0RuNGhYc2tsUzF4b0xiWlRJcGRCVTRQV3poUnk2Z1czX2VXMEptUkhQRnF3Ml9mcVNNWDJnUWxsaFNVN1BzMG9qM0xfcTdPbUd6QXVGX2hqY2tEWURGamdjS0NlV1JUeTIwbVJXbUJfMTdvYUhBMFlRZw?oc=5
2026-03-31
2026-03-31
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级，霍尔木兹海峡可能被封锁，威胁全球30%石油运输。
- 胡塞武装参战，红海航运风险增加，影响全球供应链。
- 美以军事打击导致伊朗领导层更迭，可能引发伊朗报复和长期冲突循环。
- 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯石油设施，加剧欧洲能源供应不稳定。
- 美国特种部队抵达中东，显示军事升级可能性。
- 伊朗可能退出《不扩散核武器条约》，增加核扩散风险。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀
避险情绪上升 / 股市下跌 / 安全资产如黄金和美元需求增加
G7政策协调 / 能源干预措施 / 油价稳定预期 / 市场情绪缓和
美伊谈判进展 / 地缘风险下降 / 石油供应恢复 / 通胀压力缓解
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / Yonhap News Agency / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/a4156a8c98604fbaaee1ed080d686a4e/c.html
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/9f3ed09e09c8421bb08ee61c114fa897/c.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595633.shtml
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331060611dr8
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-security-chief-larijani-more-key-iranian-leaders-killed-in-us-israeli-strikes/articleshow/129907599.cms
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-30/10595608.shtml
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/f4f265702ff24d1292cbd62c8636324f/c.html
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/b7c8e9000fbd4cfc871051de1ed7b6f9/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260331/0b757beb8ee44c1186169d4b984f3d83/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260330/2d2a9d5efb5446f99f6a0040090631cb/c.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/31/iran-war-live-kuwaiti-oil-tanker-hit-in-dubai-port-3-un-troops-killed?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/31/al-jazeeras-full-interview-with-marco-rubio-on-us-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260330-crise-%C3%A9nerg%C3%A9tique-le-g7-%C3%A0-la-hauteur
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260331002400320
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331091039Faa
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595636.shtml
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/us/politics/us-missile-strike-iran-sports-hall-school.html
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331082958BSb
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603310824239gJ
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595631.shtml
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPZE1Oc2xwRE93TmlxNGxnNFZldTMzS2RuNG9KZHhTT2o2OVczQlhvR1pBZnJJNXlRSWtndDFlbFY4alFoMThScHZQcHJkcTlSMTJZTnJOcmlZTVNqcU1MdDlPR0ZaWmpMSUt1NE1pY3NFbXdZaWlzdlgyQ0hfSk5MbDhJMGVLUVRmVENQYllYYWhmSnd6NWdUYnJ0S1NRVHdMVlZyZzEzT2g2ekhxVTU2U0dlT0s?oc=5
- [23] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-us-spezialeinheiten-im-nahen-osten-angekommen-a-f1df0f24-9734-4bc2-b88c-caa4761ed54d
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075620sy9
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331075817J9n
- [26] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-31/10595626.shtml
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBDeXpnM3NIMmhOUGR6Z0o0eU42Mm5JZURDT0hOdko2M05KRHpZeWJMdXNaMnVWeDd0U1RLVnh3VzhOOG9pakVwZnVENHFSYXhRbk1Fam5zM0JjSEpNWGxPcTBFMHlIcUZ2N2c?oc=5
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260330-contre-la-crise-de-l-%C3%A9nergie-un-g7-in%C3%A9dit-avec-banque-mondiale-fmi-aie
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/trump-eyes-arab-nations-to-fund-iran-war-amid-peace-talks-with-tehran/articleshow/129910962.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260331072941ROe
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
进展要点
- 中东战争扩大，可能波及更多国家如沙特和黎巴嫩。
- 霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，全球石油供应链严重中断。
- 美国与伊朗直接军事对抗风险增加，引发更广泛冲突。
- 俄乌冲突升级，威胁欧洲安全和能源供应。
- 也门胡塞武装加入中东冲突，加剧地区不稳定。
- 外交调解努力效果有限，和平前景不确定。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
军事行动扩大 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升
外交调解努力 / 缓解紧张 / 风险情绪改善 / 市场反弹
来源
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPemo4aG92YmVObXh2c2lZeXpZdlFZUUR0S0VEUUF1TWdObEdCMnBOaGJQa2FWS1FjTGRISXhMcjM1bXVpalpPSW9uNG10aC1fNWJ4ay10eHhwZ1JlSGZ6ZUVFSFZqNkJQR3lOMGpQb3Mwbl9qWC1QQUhWTzJiTklIaF9VdlBzMkd6bk1wam1KMGhqX1YzZjVHcWlHTmg0UFByZHRZ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE80aEc4OWU4TGtJMUw2MTRhWHo1SDgwdVpnTzJ3OEVRT2FGWkVxeHlhNlVxSXI3WnJyRDYtRmhFa0NRdHcwUTBHWTNzYzZoMU5CVEVPT2l5VDZvdVpsTWlLSnBpYU5wLWlEdFh6QUdmVmlKTy1zbFVjTHA3Zw?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE5rUGkxamwyaHNNNGJ4M2ZZNXVpOHN2X0hDMG00dnVMS0J1SXd2WHFKc2gzMVZZLXpSSzJ2QTN2SllBcEJZU05CaTk3aE5TS0QwNUxKeDc0ek1XZmQxSkhYOFdlaWQxQmpqOWItUDhzWQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260329-world-trade-is-struggling-as-war-in-iran-continues
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQcjBLWHhQcG96UjU0RHh4a0JvRW5oWWZ5X3lFYzJkLW4tT3RjZXdkejJWcERZX01xd0wycUZuQVFCanZzUHIxVTVUSEx3blg0TWRMYnlod2pTRk5TT0wyVEhQVkF5eThBclFGeEdPNGF3aG5KTVRkdkpiMUJwb3VYc2ZJQlRBYXRRcFJUZ1NIc0hzcGNVZHRSYXlpSnlkanFtWHfSAacBQVVfeXFMUG1NWFY3ZUJrRl8xMGh1TTlxaEN3aEtmY2x6ODQyV1JYQ0NFVEdocGZyY0x3YXVXbjVDRW5fOXFPemhhWDRmbFlLTWhydHdBSWx6SmdoTktUQzFLT2RPRVJXVmQ5ek12QWp2UnplZ2kxTmVVa2ZWb2o4NHNsVVVhM0I3dE5DS05vd2VrUHVvamhRa3c3NWptcy1yRlI0SWUwM3l6WDdKems?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/one-month-of-israel-us-war-on-iran-a-timeline/article70800535.ece
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106917-uae-intercepts-58-missiles-and-drones-launched-from-iran.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1xbHZQRWhXdGJmZ2lKM3NuUEEzWEVGN09pQzF5ZnZFX2I2bVlkYlNNc2ZWcmw4T2FUZlZuRVNJRHNuTXFqbHB3YVRzNkNjQnBtOXEwY1BvVVUzbGdLVWZySE8ySFdYNnNaY0JFeWFR?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-missile-hit-neot-hovav-162832864.html
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-attack-saudi-injures-least-224939787.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-warns-us-against-ground-assault/live-76581165?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-houthis-claim-2nd-attack-on-israel-in-24-hours/live-76573681?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russia-reports-fire-in-new-ukrainian-strike-on-major-baltic-port/article70800282.ece
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge01w2dxe0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp86yrq5jy7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/29/iran-hits-industrial-zone-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260329-moyen-orient-washington-muscle-sa-pr%C3%A9sence-militaire
- [19] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106892-war-update-enemy-launches-66-attacks-pokrovsk-and-kostiantynivka-sectors-see-fiercest-battles.html
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNeERGX0FoN1B4bXRIUmktRHRLZnNOUnpha2tpYk5fZW92Z3FNVXRkZEpYTng1NzdRTFFPS0tKQ2dtYVlsLWpScnJXem1EMG1KT0kyVmhJVkNvQWJIZW9BYTVHZFBaWmNWYW9HQnQ4R2hzWWRNWG52V1NNVjBMQktiOHF0X0RaWS1jS3hjUURGakluVWJkWWZydGtILUctSzNqa1o0UjduQWxUd1BYUFlyT9IBtgFBVV95cUxOYlRSZkhFVHNCMFI2ZlJGMXJfcXktNEJVa3hhcGJCZDh3NExYdVViQ1RpWXZkVkx3SHE4RmtaSUd5TUdVWWN0NEExT29QNklNbmZ2MHlLckxMSGtuajlIMjFaMVI1cEpISzF1S0QydGRiTU5PZjNKaFpxcnlRXzl1dkg4QThCdFlxQkhjT0ZEWi1SZVo2Sy1fbVQ5VTJxZ0FvczB
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxNWFhyQ1p0emoyTk1xOWpzMEZhZGxpd0pPVGVva0xiUFpnRkpCSHhnU2Q3VVNRNmFCbHhZaFlCMHBacXZWYVpLOVVlb2MzNnFnZVZYWVAzWThNdjBlYV90Mm8wMUdFal9hc2ZhN3lkcks1UDg5M1Z2WGdaU1U2RVVNQjhOcGZaTmJXQzhrUklWTi05VnE1YlBqbTdNZ1RFbFhDUG44LUFTV2NMTWhheW1PbXZlXzlqREhUbVV3ZlN1SGhBRk1NWXJDd3p2dXI5ei0xTUttTVdrMFd5YW9wM0k5T2JYV2p4VkVwejN6LVV6MG5Nb0k?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/houthis-open-new-front-in-iran-war-will-yemeni-group-block-bab-al-mandeb?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizwFBVV95cUxPZ2lfV3pPSXZNdG5HUE10NDE1YThZZDVFakdkb3lfa3UyLTdSRHhhX3RmS2VuZ1U2dC0tSjU3dXlBMDg3Y0hWanh6WW14RXRjZy1TS3ZFcGloNGFya1FTZHNvc1Jzc25RVTJnajVTTHJkZ244SVJiM0d5NTNPYWg3Y2E3a25mVmUtckoxa0FCRG4zNk9FYUtCMTRneHpDRTNxR3lfczFZSUtaM1FHMUIxVlFLZ2VjWXJLejJxQU1EZHM5dFNPMnp2cjJKYUJwWjg?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPMVhGcGtmWFFLbGxsLUpUY2tlNUZablRoMVhObzdQYlFBWTVmZGVyc3NaZGRFanVKVGxBX0YtNGRKblBKUjM5c0xqaW1LZW9nSFJTQXdJVTlqRDg3cVd3TXdjV2RaeFdBR2RLYkRpRURGczJwX2dNeGNwLWd2RElfY3N3Z1hGMk1H0gGLAUFVX3lxTE80Yk5sMER1YkxQaTQzTDczdHV0WkF6ek55eVhjQkJpdXFQdzNHbnU4N19wQ3c3UWl3aWdpMU4yQ2UtY1llclRpLVpwX0IwOWQ0dENTSzZTZDhWc1pyTTRhVjBacmpIUDg4VEl2QlJxQzhPZDhWa2FlRTk5Nl9ncjktVTZKWTN2b1ctc1U?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOSXE4WVFndEZQVWNOQjh2UkVNV2FIaTQ3MERlWEtuN192WG1pRnlsVE9zMVFHUVRncDZmX0NKb204STYwNXQ3LV9HQm51c2thVVJLWWExNGx6U2pnd2QyMnpPb3BRMlMzMC1SS1N1NTFVOVo1UWE2TDRYbWJCU0tXRXFnV2pCb0l2Z3pB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-3-500-us-troops-arrive-in-the-region
- [27] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-crisis-mediators-gather-in-pakistan-for-talks-on-ending-month-long-iran-war/articleshow/129881093.cms
- [28] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-silver-outlook-bullion-markets-brace-for-volatile-week-as-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-cues-weigh/articleshow/129881732.cms
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNRlZTZnRnR0tGckFFMFNyZkFpMkFYSm41Y3FmNmtWTlF0ZWZIYlpGZE04SFc4Nm9nZENQMFVNWW1kUURBSjR5Q1pfS3BIR3FFUUNTRDY5N1A4RUxRUHROTnNoLUdNX2J6ckVmNGhJM2dYaFRSQmFXX2VCM1RXcHNxeWlOR2F5VV9qQ2lQa09FS0xndw?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQTkVyUEN2ejdNYWNQOWRLZHVJLTJyNlRSeHVjT1R1YUg1UTE4dTR4YWtVLTZsZWZFNnNWZzFpQ0VoSzl6RDNvMW9uazV4QXBfb285NlUyYWRjV25ubjJRY2tDTlZqcHAxbkJVbG1YbDdVNUhJcGJOem1sSTRfRU9fN1c0TDVnQ2ZtY1dBQkNNbXZwZUQ5ZFo4MWpnajFWRnhidExsd2dZX05zRTg?oc=5
2026-03-29
2026-03-29
进展要点
- 中东全面战争风险，可能涉及更多国家和代理人冲突。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能，直接影响全球石油供应。
- 伊朗核武器化进程加速，引发地区军备竞赛。
- 红海航运中断，打击全球贸易和能源运输。
- 美国与伊朗直接冲突升级，增加美军伤亡风险。
- 俄乌冲突持续，乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，加剧能源市场波动。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 市场避险
胡塞武装袭击 / 红海航运风险 / 供应链通胀 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元上涨
伊朗核威胁 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 风险资产抛售
战争延长 / 经济增长放缓 / 企业盈利下降 / 股市回调 / 债券需求上升
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / RT News / ORF.at News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/key-moments-in-first-month-of-us-israeli-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE9zNUlleUlBNHRhY2g2Z2JXLUNrcjZ5bzJRYlRkNm0yQWRtcDR1UHJLeXRwRVNkWFZNdDJEbEMxMXdFNWhYVS1YODV3WnJDSmJhbGQ1dkxRVUpVVVMteUVtSmxWSmZUblMzZVE?oc=5
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/analysis-1-month-war-iran-150728746.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/29/iran-war-live-houthis-attack-israel-anti-war-protesters-rally-in-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-hits-airbase-in-saudi-allies-houthis-enter-war-target-israel/articleshow/129874132.cms
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxNRnNNMXp6endjeWw0eWo0SkJfX0JfVExSUnRyd2lYV01CcVN0bnVrREVUSnQxSkM0TFMzNjVWNzdCNXBNcDZ4TmgtTTNkUE94R1VSa09lb3VwUUhDVWUxRzktOXlwS1ZidFliRTNIUng3QWVFeUtNVVNZZjVia0FZZW4yZjVJRTJoRzFQcnd0bGpRaE1rNFpDaE1uMlVVVlFIVFRtSXg5ZHZPNUZfSXNndDBlcVNrME9KWWpuVVA1eEjSAcYBQVVfeXFMTUlJaHJnOHJwb2lBQmQwSmltZ0Vrd25YWnR2TGl1TUJuWUJxOGJRUnk0a3ZfQ0l6bnNETVl5Ny1PREVaVkVtaHd1VlY2akRMbHNNbUtWTTFSM2RaRnp2QWFTbF9UbzdoZjVvc21laUVxeGxWVVkta1lVS2RxY1NZckJfUWhXQXdBaWIxR1ZiT2M1R0d
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/636572-iran-us-israel-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTFB2LW9fUjBuQ1haQUdiQzRBSDBVNkFWazR3dDZsbDBJZE5yeDRUQjFBN0RaS0dzWjNCSm1TdW85anFXNno3V3p4OXFEUEgwRVJNOC1LcUhRN3p6X21FRm5uaFZwTUFxeDVmR2pZYm9iem4wOHBzUGpyOWRLSEg?oc=5
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3425270
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260328-les-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men-lancent-une-attaque-contre-isra%C3%ABl-les-frappes-contre-l-iran-continuent
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260328-yemen-s-houthis-launch-ballistic-missile-at-israel-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/kuwait-airport-hit-by-iranian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/opinion/iran-trump-israel-geopolitics.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOblloY2RKTmxkUWY2ZUQwak54MXZLRHJzcTZVNWk4STFDb3VQZkU5OXg1ZUp6dXpITmxFVkRubXAwTDZkcDU4cTBjZmhHSnd3dzRqZ1dGQXBVUldqakRLbTFzUENheUotNTQ5Vm9jTV9HemE4dUtEVDhXbl93YnRIS3hoVHJWOFpoSHBzUUFUU1NjMDNDcGhEbmpvSFZndDByODVUT2dn?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6l5n8jv4yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.iris-france.org/operations-aeroterrestres-sur-liran-de-quoi-parle-t-on
- [17] https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2026-03-28/larry-fink-presidente-de-blackrock-y-el-hombre-mas-poderoso-del-mercado-si-la-guerra-en-iran-se-alarga-mas-de-un-ano-la-economia-mundial-entrara-en-recesion.html
- [18] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [19] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/28/iranian-attack-on-saudi-base-injures-us-troops-as-more-american-forces-arrive-in-west-asia
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQYnNQVkNDSkdjNEVEOHlNUzlPQkFrenhKRGhOdnNxU09SLW1BOXlEeDFGZ0ZRdWtsWjZVWnhxYUhyYUVpMWsza0d1ejJxT0RtQ25DU3ZKUGVscnpud2MxNzdJd1V6bjgza3ZscmZLOTZfT0g1emxaY1hVZnFuU3VlR0RPOFo3WUNMclN3?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOaXNoeE54X2RSMXpjVGEzNklVVW5QckY5cjYxRzhWQXBBMmZyOU9VUHR2Z1hIRndXM21odExpRzNMbFhObm5lQUc5azVhQmZxMktRS2lDZW5XcmVmZ3lSRnBwX1hZd1pJOU1fYWZmeWYwd09CU29CRlZ6Z3gwZktIcS1Edmtta0xIV0Y2SEkweDRJVGpQS1A0UFlfX1VvZGV0?oc=5
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106683-air-defense-systems-activated-in-kyiv-region.html
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/lawmakers-push-npt-exit-as-us-israel-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-steel-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-troops-wounded-in-iran-strike-on-base-in-saudi-arabia-us-official-says/article70795431.ece
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/massive-blaze-at-kuwait-airport-after-iran-drone-strike-fuel-tanks-hit/articleshow/129869192.cms
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-les-possibles-impacts-mondiaux-de-l-entr%C3%A9e-des-houthis-dans-le-conflit
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-ukraine-des-frappes-visent-odessa-zelensky-dans-le-golfe
- [28] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-premi%C3%A8res-frappes-revendiqu%C3%A9es-par-le-houthis-du-y%C3%A9men
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-iran-frappes-isra%C3%A9liennes-sur-sites-nucl%C3%A9aires-et-civils
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260328-moyen-orient-des-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-bless%C3%A9s-dans-une-frappe-sur-une-base-en-arabie-saoudite
2026-03-28
2026-03-28
进展要点
- 伊朗报复性袭击可能导致冲突升级，波及更广泛地区
- 霍尔木兹海峡长期封锁将严重扰乱全球石油供应
- 胡塞武装的介入增加红海航运风险，影响贸易通道
- 北约内部紧张可能削弱西方对冲突的应对能力
- 潜在的地面入侵风险引发更大规模战争
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀压力上升
避险情绪主导 / 美元和黄金需求增加 / 资产配置调整
联盟紧张 / 地缘风险溢价上升 / 风险资产抛售
来源
Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZEtyeXAteExYR1BmQ1hmendwdEJQbFo0eGRCVXdWMWFwT1JkSmU4UHJIYTJtT0puUVUzVTBFd2hfVk1ONXVNV3MxZGMtOHBUdnlCVG9pU3BhMk8zY0VpcHpBTXZTalRpLVpkZUlJNF9TbUxsWGZhd09BLS1na29SR08wQVIzZ3daZ3lpMmVleGp4WkV3ZWtv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6f005e85ece997c8b456f.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-israel-hits-iranian-heavy-water-nuclear-reactor/live-76555531?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/explosions-rock-iranian-capital-amid-us-israel-attacks/3882486
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNR3F4N2t1WExsVkJXTzNGT183ZDc0SU9LWTAtWE8zX0tRRllRMFkwdHl2LV9ESDJxeDlTR0hzM2ltVDlETmhyV3RnWmhLY2RWX1I0Q3lMaXlfeEdUWVk0Sm1vS0htQTVMWmRXQ0FJZVBhS2VXNWRSdXdWUDkzanU0U0tJcjhGam9OMTVUMmU4dWFTVm1qY2l6d01JUQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPT1lyU19ZVDZLRWc2emFWcWhUcFo5clVjM0N5R2FVQ3ZZZjQtOExQV0hpZ2xScEU3Xy1yUmYtR3hTenNLaWtlZUREdGZ4Ni1lNjZ0RzZGeWhRaU4wUHhHTm5OM1RYLTZKNUVQY2JfdGVnVzVLODE4N3kwOG1fb3AxWDhvYlBub29XdXZ6MGJkWVVTVXBwRGtET1JkM2Z1dXpXTF9EcEpYUmlnMlVoOVVmcXctaw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/israel-launches-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-sites-as-war-enters-fifth-week?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/israel-attacks-major-industrial-and-nuclear-sites-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/27/en-direct-guerre-en-iran-plusieurs-sites-nucleaires-frappes-marco-rubio-au-g7-prevoit-une-fin-des-operations-d-ici-deux-semaines_6673056_3210.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE93bjF0N2pQUWF3SWRVeENjeUNiM1lFeWR6aGZnVmJaU2NRYnc0YTkxT1dUX3BHWTZzNUVpMkt6SDRQMW5NcXl1SHdRS09IVnBuRnFpR0dkVDljd3BSUW5tcy00a3F1YVZ4OHc?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxONFp1WFh4TlAya0RwNGhQM25SYktuNDVXOHdOZ2ZhVXEySXRaUUM3aDRHLUk5SzVvV01tanRKUHdTMm1PZXRnZUItSFpNOU4tZzNBZ0dIay1VMWRXenFNYkFzUkxJOVMzZUhMSzRnRGRjdk5SQzVZVXNZTTEweUdVZWtZYmhZcDdNeWZzdXdfYnLSAZYBQVVfeXFMT0N6QTFnQUhnTlNKeFo1S2ZZQ2Vlcmdnc3dsM3N5dE0zaG5laXFRTlVEckI3ajJ2cmJKalhFel9DZmtGMVQ1RFR0Y3JSekpNdG11LVpXNFJCczl5djRrbTNjYzQ4OVlHM0V5R3JJal9hWC1lNE1YSXEyZlRXOWVvSVJxaDY5SVp5OWRJWjNCdDF4Rm5hckZB?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-uses-hundreds-tomahawk-missiles-101814598.html
- [13] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4106269-irgc-announces-strait-of-hormuz-closure.html
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/28/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-creating-a-new-middle-east?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-iran-samstag-104.html
- [17] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/release-the-bank-canadas-summary-deliberations-2026-04-01
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/rescue-workers-rush-to-save-lives-after-south-tehran-missile-strike?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-27/trump-exige-a-iran-que-reabra-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-mientras-critica-a-la-otan-en-estos-tiempos-uno-aprende-quienes-son-sus-verdaderos-amigos.html
- [20] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/28/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-le-chef-de-la-diplomatie-americaine-marco-rubio-accuse-volodymyr-zelensky-de-mentir-sur-les-garanties-de-securite-proposees-par-washington_6673450_3210.html
- [21] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/27/69c6aabf21efa07c798b45b9.html
- [22] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/28/69c6c1ade4d4d8ca6d8b4571.html
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/28/trump-stellt-unterstuetzung-fuer-nato-partner-infrage
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/27/houthis-warn-fingers-on-the-trigger-as-us-israeli-war-on-iran-continues?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/nearly-1-500-civilian-deaths-in-a-month-of-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-human-rights-report/3882476
- [26] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/live/trump-says-cuba-next-after-iran-war/3882480
- [27] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/washington-donald-trump-pete-hegseth-b2947437.html
- [28] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/73131
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/27/fingers-on-the-trigger-for-military-intervention-houthis-warn?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxOaTZ2TFgyZmVUZk1DRUpidjlZcGV1NkpFX2IxVk9QRUZNdGZRWi1ZMktlcDFncGFUOTlNajloY1l6Sy1NdHBpU3hvdk5hakJxMEJDTVVhTnh2TjRRUm9SNFZPdDRhV1J5LTVwNmNsMGNqTy1MTW9ad1ZSaUo2V3duNkhaTjItczdP?oc=5
2026-03-27
2026-03-27
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致全球石油供应中断风险。
- 美伊冲突升级，可能引发更广泛中东战争，波及伊拉克等地区。
- 伊朗威胁在哈尔克岛制造血战并扣押美军士兵（El Mundo）。
- 中东冲突外溢，如伊朗导弹袭击阿布扎比致人死亡（n-tv）。
- 全球贸易体系崩溃风险，WTO改革失败可能加剧保护主义。
- 美国国内政治分裂，油价上涨影响选举稳定性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀风险
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
油价上涨 / 美国通胀压力 / 美联储加息预期 / 全球利率波动
WTO改革失败 / 贸易保护主义上升 / 全球经济增长放缓 / 市场风险偏好下降
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / El País Internacional / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [2] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOazM5aVI0RjBGa0NfUzU4UGNKMXpONTNmc2tQdG5Gc0E1UTBrS292SHJCSzZHcTlHdXNEVHhtM2hXeDh4OFVqZFM4N24xVzZlVTZSNlJmWlhxQmhvZWtWd3NlV2dZdDVCNWhvQ0lYN244cEt6QTFlcWM3ZTVTaGtBUUlRTUdUMkd4R1kxWjhacEVrNnV1MHRfZmtQXzN1WXliN194MnJEZEJWa0R3Qmt6ZU1Eckg3ZXNBc0xIU0930gHDAUFVX3lxTE83b3hyNjVEWXUtWE5KRTZEX040cnZhcTdvb1VFeEhxR1luQXVTR2lKaWE3T2xmWElrT3U2NV9xMkdHd0hxV21BLTJmUjhxODc3blNfUGtwNHRCdWM2YmplQnVqMFgzS0dDaWVoZ2ZOME4zSVNBaVo2LTE5MElLQlBiTjZVYnhPSkMtMkw3VlFjSnEwcjJ
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/iranian-missiles-cause-widespread-damage-across-israel-in-latest-wave?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260326/4ba703685484482e8b989fe883829511/c.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593524.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593519.shtml
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-27/10593516.shtml
- [9] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c54b06e85ece6b448b45a0.html
- [10] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/03/26/69c56546fc6c83733f8b4588.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/26/trump-pausing-plan-to-destroy-iranian-power-plants-for-10-days?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-verlaengert-Ultimatum-um-zehn-Tage-id30517240.html
- [13] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Teheran-kontrolliert-Strasse-von-Hormus-mit-Mautstellen-id30515770.html
- [14] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Hauptverantwortlicher-fuer-Sperrung-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-soll-tot-sein-id30514792.html
- [15] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-feuert-ballistische-Rakete-auf-Abu-Dhabi-Tote-durch-Truemmerteile-id30513646.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/636330-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/26/aje-onl-tt_irq_neighborspillover_av_v2-260326?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/26/what-are-the-red-lines-for-iran-and-the-us-in-the-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/wto-holds-crunch-meeting-amid-collapsing-multilateral-system?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/trump-postpones-us-strikes-on-iranian-power-grid-to-april-6-amid-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-03/strasse-von-hormus-iran-trump-ultimatum-verlaengerung-ostern
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-starts-formalize-chokehold-strait-192024062.html
- [23] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/03/26/guerre-en-iran-avant-le-g7-le-canada-et-ses-partenaires-attendent-des-eclaircissements-de-washington_6674368_3210.html
- [24] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/26/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-au-liban-au-moins-1-116-personnes-ont-ete-tuees-depuis-le-debut-de-guerre-au-moyen-orient-selon-les-autorites_6673056_3210.html
- [25] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-03/26/trump-verlaengert-iran-ultimatum-erneut
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/israel-sends-more-troops-into-southern-lebanon-as-ground-invasion-expands?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/una-guerra-de-final-incierto-en-la-que-los-dos-bandos-elevan-sus-exigencias-que-se-sabe-de-las-negociaciones-entre-ee-uu-e-iran.html
- [28] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-26/israel-mata-al-responsable-del-cierre-de-ormuz-mientras-trump-urge-a-iran-a-alcanzar-un-acuerdo-antes-de-que-sea-demasiado-tarde.html
- [29] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-25/iran-rechaza-la-oferta-de-estados-unidos-para-acabar-la-guerra.html
- [30] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-03-24/ultima-hora-del-ataque-de-estados-unidos-e-israel-contra-iran-en-directo.html
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
进展要点
- 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，威胁全球石油运输，可能引发亚洲燃料配给。
- 美伊谈判失败风险高，冲突或扩大至地面行动，加剧中东不稳定。
- 俄罗斯无人机袭击北约领土，可能触发北约集体防御条款，升级欧洲紧张。
- 以色列占领黎巴嫩领土，可能激化地区代理冲突，波及周边国家。
- 乌克兰冲突春季攻势在即，加剧前线战事，能源设施袭击持续。
- 英国登检俄罗斯影子船队，增加英俄直接对抗风险，影响全球航运。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 通胀风险上升
俄乌冲突加剧 / 俄罗斯能源出口受阻 / 全球供应紧张 / 避险资产需求增加
美伊谈判僵局 / 地缘不确定性持续 / 市场情绪避险 / 黄金和美元走强
能源危机 / 欧洲通胀压力 / 央行政策转向鹰派 / 利率上升 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxPZHZTeElMaGFXSUFuLWF0cm81WmRmc2R3T1FRbVRjZkJNekFQRnZlQS02bl9OWkgyT1JGVkRrUXpqQ1J1Mmt1Y1U2NUhuZlFRajUxTlBxLXlkdHBQM3ZVSks2Vjk5TmlQUUdhWnZPRHNIRTdKTzJYYndFd3J6dmlaTXNld2tZTlRkSnQ5bTF1VVU2Z0c1UWpPYXh1Mk9SeHZnTVl4Z2syVENULVNaY2NmNHJYQ2lDRHR1RVdxbA?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/explosions-and-smoke-seen-as-iranian-missiles-hit-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c995xp4jxj2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260325/f6d947b8e24c4f2e8c5b44ea69c57b8d/c.html
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-26/10592890.shtml
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0n9z3jlvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxOZUVaa1BTWEJ5UENmczgyUTZ2VGlvOThaVk54Zy1mX2FlSkVXRkpPM0JoRFN4SkMzYjdqMW5YX19Ib3E3d0hNd2J4VUoweUdxUGZEbHEtb2JJVzNmeW53d0VkQmtMOGJESVBRX2JQZ0VrSUJLRWotVGw3dkFVdDBDaTBSclBnaGNzNmdva2hwa3NXbkpwNVA1VkZ6UVZoMDQ3NzMwetIBqgFBVV95cUxQTTBwMHc0MXZhWElFNnE5UHhqYnppQnYxbkhqMUVKYTJDSzVRRWFHSnJ2dVBnanlWWmFGdzFWbkdWelR1Znl3U1pmTEM4X3NGa0FmMUJIX0w1V1UwYVhIV2VDaUlLS21rTTdFQUV0VFNvMkZxYkotd1VfT1Fud1Zwc1VQSU90WXlIcHk3aXRoS3BXV21oWVdnd2N5SlBPd0NqQjZZbHppb19sQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQMXdid0VGVnlDTGxyM0hLVm5YQ0t5clFwMHJiTG84R0dSM25BMjN6cmZMbzJTNnRjM05rV0UtVmVNTC1XLWx0UWFwaVBEd1VXYXVNamxuUHI5NEZPeFZHN1FKZFpJTW1LSDd0aW02RGVXU0NSM1VQRHJyY09MZU00TGYtSlk3QVk0QUNvSUhwbHUtUkxQc2pLNGtZMmhwZlRQWVlmQnhrUFE?oc=5
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/636210-us-israel-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4105605-war-update-140-clashes-on-frontline-pokrovsk-sector-remains-most-active.html
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/iran-releases-video-claiming-to-show-downing-of-us-jet?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/us-tells-iran-to-accept-defeat-or-trump-will-unleash?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTFBaSTB2REZuZkVORnhBWVNzZUxJazU0QjNvX1ZURldXN2pXVl8tUmt4LUtVSXMyRzMxTGZWRUVxWllfeXpzQUJoaENZSFppbGxJTW1JUU91dk9JNFNwVTJCd3hGTkFpTDFKU1Y5WVpR?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/25/whats-irans-war-strategy-and-what-risks-does-it-pose?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPcnFiZWQ3UmpJdmZUOV9JUk1Xdks5TkdMRThxY2NDVXNRczFYbUhOeFVVWnRYU2NGTkpJaFJ5NU1sc0tXUHZhVlZqNHdncmQ1bXQ2VXpnOEY2S3Q4dFUyVmNaUXFnblpWUjdYZE0wbmRVNnBtYjR5bjBHQVhOcWdVbWM5NWZNMVA1bkRlck02VkVOMVhFWWJZTWVHRDREbVItMlIxWjlR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/irans-state-tv-outlines-five-conditions-to-end-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8wFBVV95cUxPXzFlbUhpQ2xmVXJWMXI4SWEwU290YVN0dkdJSUdfYWUyZ3RiZW9SNnZNSmI2N0k3cE13T0hMQjNVUk9rMDBHLVZrUFpFblhScnBVX1JSTjViQ01EZUtwNDJkUF96bnNJTHM0ZERnNWNiNE1WS2tFM0p4WFZ6dUx4cXZTZ3dmczBIZjBsLTJKdjRxa0xOWV92WV95RUotcmlneXpVVkpCZEsxMFM0a014Y3RkSnRjTnRWc0Z4dWlYU3RWRkVQZW8xbHQ5MXpSSnRSLUFmMUVmZV92dG1OeFlsQkNEUWpTR2xTMlMySjh1Sjc4Q0U?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOSE9rVnF3d3k4SmhmU01hRkdJdThyM2RiVXpiRDZaWGtqMDQ5NzhyWXVxQW1MNlN0aWd3VXNvcTZCLTUtdlhMQU5qYVNWRWZCWFVwaVJaQ3BhclFLNEtqN1dHekYtcDR1X18yaUNGcE4xaTZBYm53d0VrMUFOUGs3SmdRTTU3TDRDd1pkUDhUT0ZQbFJHR1lsdklIbE9WUi13czY4YTE5b1RRc2V2Z290QQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/636167-iran-worse-than-iraq-sanchez/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBhNUprVndUd2RfcjlTX25CYWxQX0FURTZxS0FHNHhMTFZ0ellkb2RUcW1WVE5BUkpEdS1EbzBFaUNJWXZiSGhJYjI4NVN1eGhIcjV2MlhJYV9iS01Sc1J4Q25QWE4xY1RBaWFKNXdIeEp2U21mLUJuTw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQbVB0QmxlZFY1d2N2ajhFMWpMMWJZcWpOa24zV3lYVkZUYk8zMF9iR1lULUJROUZRaWRjanBuUzM0UlN6OUhYQ2JyT3Q2Wm5kMDYwUzZrWTlIUXB0TkJmWnBHV0JyNFUwVnZKRzJ1Q05VSVdKVFF3cmJKbGl1QVpyV1lIU3NmYjlOUkg4Zg?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPUzdaa0lJdElid1NPc2RhSGJGdkRGenM0UGcyWDNfTTUtbWFwMmFHbjgyaVEyb1BDTG5EdVlTamZBVkQtLXhBaE45dWZBX1luTUNGWWhzSmwtVXY2cTkzSmZHQlpNVDNoQjg5R1Y4WkJtTm5uTmNfaHlseDEtZ2xndmtnUHNjckE5Z3lrbDlXMTdEeVJOdkxYb2Z6dzBsRV80Wl8tR0lFeHpTS1pwcWZoUWpJeU5UNjFnaVg2T0RB?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQSnpPVGY1V0h1RUhCU1ZCNVFyQV9DczRnVHJEMVk4QWFYRHk5VzRxWFpQa1FRSjFaTEk5YkwyejBmLWZTaFVieVJIVnRyck9Yb1JhYjdNX2lsakRySmdUbkFZY1B0aEJuNzdtNFhscXVPZXRGMmhhbUJVRWN4Z1BvQ1hMd0c3Ml9PUjZGQ3dqNzhtc2ZZR3hBSVZYaGwtNk5CVWRYSXRrYUFzMDNkcWJHblFFTW9fdw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/war-on-iran-what-troops-is-the-us-moving-to-the-gulf?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOdUtCdTFreDRwM3dONWtPQmFoZF9UNEdUMHhJejF1eUcxZEhHVUQ4XzFJdVZ6OUdkckZ2eDNpODJRSHBYYmxpbC1CS2dSOXgxclR4REhmRWlITjFUS2VnVVE1RXRKa2xtODRTeTlhN2dyWXNMejNmYVE0ZlU4R1RmVjREZGZ3TnFxNXNIYV94Sk92VG44aDZvVnFnUW1iQkdo0gGmAUFVX3lxTE54eGZkajBCaklCOElMT1k5TkVMbXlCUWw2Y2pwbUFvYmlEUTZFb05rejhuRXREajA3UXVqYWRzTlZ0QjhObTlMdkZzMHJieGJnVlF2aUFjM0xUY0pHdEY4TnQ1SE44ZW5tc3R2TlJnc29CYjVwa0lDRk14T3dWY1lZd3YxZnlPeDBkOG5ETWNab194NFAtamJjWGloWjh1Wm8xR1RYUGc?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE5uMGZRMTY3dnJWQ1REYWVFY3dqNW9NZGg0Ym52M1o4VC1TZWhzQVpMUjh3ZENlRGs1UTBROXVJZjJ3aXdQQUh3TnZUMA?oc=5
- [28] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/70691f988eb542f3acc9660bfd41443c/c.html
- [29] https://www.rt.com/news/636100-shock-and-awe-is-dead/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/israel-talks-up-iranian-threats-to-european-cities-to-justify-war?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
进展要点
- 伊朗-以色列冲突升级可能引发更广泛地区战争，波及海湾国家。
- 卡塔尔LNG供应中断加剧全球能源安全风险，推高通胀压力。
- 俄罗斯乌克兰新攻势延长战争，东欧紧张局势恶化。
- 美伊谈判矛盾增加外交不确定性，可能误判导致冲突扩大。
- 以色列计划控制黎巴嫩南部，激化与真主党冲突。
- 联合国警告中东核事故风险，潜在全球持久影响。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪上升 / 油价金价上涨
LNG供应中断 / 能源价格上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中国特别国债 / 银行信贷扩张 / 实体经济支持
地缘紧张 / 市场波动加剧 / 股市承压
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/building-collapses-after-iranian-missile-strike-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/iranian-missiles-cause-injuries-and-major-damage-across-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPQ3N3MFRHWTViTmdtMGhteGRYbFBTaTN0TlFJdWU0eHdkdmtsMkVTY09PbGF3bmFRUnBDT1JmS3pmMGVkSzd3d21UUUlCQkJaNWkxSmRXcHdZMUlqMFY1Mm9BcFJjblp2bzctTmRpWmpPdnNLQUpxdFBMbi1GLWxNZk1nMHNualdrTjBhdTNaR3hRWlBa0gGaAUFVX3lxTE5PQnBMY2FGbVJYZUczQVMyN1Y5em5NZHpEeC1MOHJzR0tfa29wU3c3M0N5NzlDWF9WaW8wRjdhUnZvVTlZOHo2WDZyV0pDSGJiMFJBMWhyNng3bl9hWDl6RXc4MF9Mb0NyQnBXNHkwWFJ1YmVlMFJZQTNpOTkxLVdsdTJleXE5cnpwS1lWMTF0Wml6eC1aQVBpZnc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260324/13137e064ccb478c9939b3b8c9272065/c.html
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260325/6b6fad3bee41483eadae413812ef9ccd/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/25/iran-war-live-trump-again-says-talks-underway-12-killed-in-south-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://unric.org/fr/lactualite-de-lonu-en-bref-numero-11
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/arms-manufacturer-thrives-amid-us-israel-war-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/trump-claims-us-has-achieved-regime-change-received-present-from-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.anzen.mofa.go.jp/info/pcwideareaspecificinfo_2026C021.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4OV82UHJwV3pQdUdsRUc1R3hnSHFFMXIxQ25uLU1TRGFxNUFZMmpBWG9GaDRwRkZHbmplVDlnWklTRTFpcmpWMGJaVGw4aUl1ZVZkRUhMZXpqQQ?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE83NTJQYXhUdGF1U1RIRHpnZVZ5M0NDdzRYMVpySW9kUzZOUUJyS3pObEI1MVFhWTZ1Y0hOYTlrbkFJSFpjdExjWlE0cEU2eUQxZEExN2VMMVhURkhIVkFsR1BZdDJsaElCeGZSRQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxOWW5Xd3p5UWxSQmdTMjdmRVJOaTBDb0lSNmdFd1FVTVRacU1qOEY1Rmo2d05iUXYwMXQ3ZU11RnhYdHI0RHBrbm4xbGVUSXJydjBOc2ZWdG85c3pOZEFiQ1lOckZ0cjQ5SFJmSUQyc3hsX3JoTE10aDRFTVRzNFM0Ykp6ci1XSWdxUGZTVlNoRjlhYVp4?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOVUswbnBPNGRmZVI3bXFRMWZ4Q3Fucl9Cczd0MnlZQUVZcFUxeF85TzNIbmoyQmUyckl5dWpKTFoyT2Q1OW9UWkdjaGhCNGw3b0t6S203VDJSS2V4bldDSGZVZm9pMk50S3owX0Z1QXB6OU5Hd0kyTWpwbEs2WjllRjJuNkttTHhqNENjd0sxZE1OVEZUVXpjb2IyeEtqTnBvUWxSd0ZWb2dRUmhiVlhkbHdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/has-iran-brought-down-an-unkillable-us-f-35-jet-3?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/russia-hits-ukraine-with-deadly-daytime-barrage-as-spring-offensive-starts?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxPZUo5dVE3czd6Mm1zajl0eklhS1ZnVUtPY1FIWDF6N3h0M0ViV2pPa2YzNlZUN3FYNlQ1MENQVWdrUzFNRkhhQThPUldaWmNrcHpzNFNIUkIyc3d1OE5qWjloTk9Xd003d0ZZRzgwaGJkWUNFc2o4ZUVaVzBtZGVDYmgzcFM0cmdGYTlha2VNNWluUlk?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNVVlkMW5RWHd3cEtuaEpTLXYwT1ljcUh1eWxwM1BPbHU4VnFWOWRHMWNCYTlhQ0VESGgxTTBuSFdOa3U2Qmo2bHRfV2FDQy00NDl4NE9MN2Y3LV85Mm5JaUVXZFJNaFk5SVNoWVZXbXZVNkU0U2VvRG5xanBFTi1iS0hud21KZHBsYzlPSUFIdVk2bnYwRlFfc2NqODdXUQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQSUJBY25HYjlUaU9STTBWX2VycXdDbktZMjBDZ0xrXzRZbGdhTlo5UXF1djlIYmRLRmNJM1l6QUJZSXN0YXlhNF9SOUNfNzJTM0ZuNjZmUnhVbWVvd0dqMGZBcFZOMEhPVTNjZkdOU3BERnVYbjBtcVlwUmpSb0hwWGJVYjQ1YV9NTzNZc2xFcDA2dl9JT2g1bktUMkJMalBzQVM2NUVBMkxVenpEVGxIc1RzS2hBM0lSNXZOb2RSQW9MbFU3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/24/what-impact-is-the-war-on-iran-having-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPdkFVRklESDFYLXFHSFhfaWtsTkVnQkt0Z0hQcjNHb0hSbmxoX2U3WUhidy1oM1VxZVNqcGg4eGRrNHJlY2pRdXBQRl90d0hGNGs0dEpRR0RaQW5jR2F6OTBkdGZJX3JseDlmMWhsOF9WRVVoLUpTV2JLT0xYLXdXVlVRbG1pcDZTSW5Gc1E3QnVJZjkwNnlTNUQ3NGVEdFZBb3FtcmZUeDg?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/israeli-defences-questioned-as-iran-continues-to-cause-damage?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5491798/iran-serang-pasukan-israel-di-gaza-jika-gempuran-ke-lebanon-berlanjut
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz90gpyw90wo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxQWnhpTVZWTm5IVFdUc0VzbnpHMXF5MFlMM0hWWDM5ZVV0ZWsxZmRvcTlWZks5OGZCT3huSnpsdUFfMXRLVnowTllnV3Q4eDlGUzdpbDgybjB2ZjBKQmZ5NmpFUGVpcjJIRUJFZGQxUFVzbnJEM21qNllDdUl6aGVrRVFkdGlpcnE5azhnVlJZUElEeWpyQ0JlTHJ0UjdlamFoVUVteC1pdTJaNGc4NzZhNl9kMTFvbGt2al9QRQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c625j162yy6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/24/moment-rescuers-find-man-alive-under-the-rubble-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260325000829qiS
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260324233310JGR
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级可能引发更广泛的地区战争，涉及伊朗、以色列和美国。
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运安全受威胁，巴林提议联合国安理会批准使用武力保护（路透社）。
- 伊朗导弹射程覆盖伦敦和巴黎，增加欧洲安全风险（BBC）。
- 美军地面入侵伊朗风险，军事专家警告可能陷入类似越战的消耗战（新华网）。
- 俄乌冲突持续，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设施，可能影响全球石油供应。
- 黎巴嫩南部局势恶化，以色列扩大地面行动，导致人道危机。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 避险资产需求上升
IEA释放储备 / 油价下跌 / 通胀预期下降 / 央行政策调整
中国财政刺激 / 内需增长 / 经济预期改善 / 亚洲股市受益
俄乌冲突升级 / 俄罗斯石油供应中断 / 全球能源价格波动 / 避险情绪升温
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Israeli President's Office / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQeFlEVTNsOTdEc0ljS0NNM3hWU2tyN3pDanhRRUI3X1NHazA0QlFZUURfMXJ6aFd5TVRrV3FSNkVUWEU1OEFfZGRFWUtHM2Z3cC1RM0dQTlpWZGNGTmN6RGFIM2kycjhsOU9mMG1SY2s1aTJTTnhOUTd1TWJxSEpFWExvRHV4ZDdhS0s1dEd3dnBMR3VXbUktUEVKNE13MnAwcnFydFVRa9IBrAFBVV95cUxORFlJeVpKaDUxalYzQlEzS2YyNkgwb2xuYVhFWGEzeGg3UXp4b1JVdzVJcTBwRWMwQWtCMjhXN29DNlg1WVdQX0FjbzVoZGlVcm9WYzQ2V3NCOEV0Z1hNTWtJSTJxeEVwR3pjZENmMWZrU29qdFZNWGJaMDdkcmMzUVIzd1g0RFVFMHlfZ0VFOGVqVHBPMzVteHliNjlkWnpxcXBKSHlJRGhHUU5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260323215112Kkk
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOUHkxVlFhd3UwODFGQzA3RmlSSF9VOG9KRE16MGs1RnQ1MTdaTEo5VlU2ZzVpeVpCNEJCYTY0OWhCaW1RdWdkZmZYQndOUzRhWjZ0S19XTWZVSlF3enBRbVVmR2JuU0JrR29MbnFJbXV6UTdhbGlVTHhIc2hpNXVUc2h2bGtyYWJCcU5PUklTWWxka0c0V256d2EyeHM4b251Z1EydVJZMDRJZTJhblRqOFE4cmZKdXpWM0NjMnpDa091ajBTVTk0TjFZMk96a0UtQ19HOFZ1WTdFSGNK?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxOWnRuRU44R2hpMFF3QXhhOGcwWWlrNDlBbWluQlVGblNQWjFDczNJbmZ3VGhWS1ZEUFZXUTh1Vk9UVjlVMHpsbWQxOFhBU2dpN1Q1eW9GT1JZNmxoNHNta2lDTUZaOTh6SUY5cUotblNhUUgxYUFvcnlfblBsNmp4b1hEMHV4Z3R1OGphUXF1bVJFaWFTaEI3RmFYQ2NmWFJieHNlWExPaHVyVFlJM1pxUW1qc1RXWWPSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWJ1UC1yMHl1c0I1UFQtQ3pKQUtoX0hhTmlJSFROUWluMkRJYjNsRHM3RlFfWDduUXdvVTFVNUJnS0Z2VlljbXZJRDlLbmVqdk1GWDJleHFQX2ZzMTlHR1NKczkybVdKSTFtdjl6MnhUTXFDUFBsZllxWms2NV9ZaXFRSmpSSkJPU2JRb0dDRE9aMm5jU1R1M2JfU1E
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/bahrain-proposes-un-security-council-191015009.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/c3ec2f52c91f48498322e5447855a248/c.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260323/532a958446c14f798d6c3c77956c7b8f/c.html
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/b617e78931ec4118a6258dc96ca5904e/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15Yy1taFh4aEtPNVBuTzdWTXN2ZWxhTE55ZzlUdVJ0RENRYzJ2MGctOXJFSzlsTnBhNFJqUXJGOV9HQWdkRGVJd211b1VueWpBdVRhNl9jbjNxdw?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxPRWtnS3JYeU8xM3A4S0NCMnA1U0s0QWRZbHpWQm9vVC14QkZCRks1cmU1NGJMbVcwbE41VGkxN1BYS1dwR1BxMkJnaWRab29NSVJwYUNzZlBFQk0zaEJlMmRNdTZwOGdXVjlsRXl3dDBmd0RMTjRtb3d5UnBQMjhCbVNqOFR4am8zWEg5dkNNQW1rdWs1blFGZnVDNUlDbzlUQVF1QXZIb3paYmthTTc0ZmFBb1VSN0RaUGY1eEZqcUVPZGpHRHR4LWJROEhXRmJNaEFF?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPZDBuci1xV3lJRmZiRTRrSEIycXJJbTBZcXA3T3dWSjQyM21ieHFFV0NfX3BQWUxyZnRQUmh1SGM1YVZZaXNOX2gxbk85M0hwZ2Ixd3ZiMEVLbEcxSDF6LU9GaGRIZUhwQ2dFdFVNenVkQ1NXSEtYSVR1MEJPNm5EbDdzY09sSDA?oc=5
- [12] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591666.shtml
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgJBVV95cUxOaUttbXZMVWI4Ri1UU3NjdVRhenVfZndFMFVXZ0dUNjdOaXBkMHk2cVJmTWVsckxqX0t2RGsxVVFMcGJRckFLRXo4ek9KQWRjUHc4ZzhmXzVqWTNjdUw5cDZxbWVTd3FmUjdYdjN0Q0RwdGtFTU11ekRPMzdRUkNoUVFieC1JZ0tueWJHRVFQZ1FleXBsQmg3QUNDdWxaWUNiZTBtbDQ3ODByVTVoMV9yblhURTZubkpEbzFsakVOYVRCbVI2SlFCbzVjWXpkRGNtcUZjVVhWeHFXcTd3bmxXdmE4QWduWjI0dFJDM1BtaHRlbVhmS3pyVjUtTjRma1pmTVlVODhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260324/115f499f8d94454299aca4391317ebef/c.html
- [15] https://www.president.gov.il/%d7%a0%d7%a9%d7%99%d7%90-%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%93%d7%99%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%91%d7%a7%d7%a8%d7%99%d7%99%d7%aa-%d7%a9%d7%9e%d7%95%d7%a0%d7%94-%d7%95%d7%91%d7%92%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9c-%d7%b4%d7%a2%d7%9d-%d7%99%d7%a9
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-24/10591654.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNU2NYQUNVbVlyZVNkdkwxMkhPd1lVVTBPODdNV2VjOVd1UTlYVU9yWWM4RnJUWFhyUW5pNXQxc0FUWlRWNFNmUXVJLTAwNGpzVnJnZVpNZ0pZSGRqQ3FPeUllTWNOUGU0Q0dja0JaODQ4bG1IaU9SRUJsMGsxUzRlYkdFczdjNXRQYUdmN0h3VmpkUm9HWGNWUThwaw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/23/have-israel-the-us-and-iran-violated-international-law?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/23/smotrich-urges-israel-to-annex-southern-lebanon-as-assault-intensifies?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635973-israeli-minister-annex-southern-lebanon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/635945-netanyahu-trump-mossad-coup-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQTmVDemJya1pCcFFiaXg4X0tvQzd3dFVwZ3JYcGZPcW0zdDNoeF9TYWNEWWFiZ1BOb214clNtNDgxekt6Y1V1a2pqZENEZ3ZHXzA0SlpiWXgzNnhaTWFHMVh5MXd4ZktUTDFOQTd6QlpHaWU2N250S3ZzZENBMWw4T2g4V0htQW0yazdCYTh6RkFSRzYzazJsdWxNVUhBQjFCZnBNclBYZ1VJd1ZMZl9icjBvWmNSTHpTeXBn?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPWFBma2Z2eE8zN2Q1STNJYkpNbnhSbXhyUkE4MW1DZXRUcU51NjJaRjNQYUpnNEh5RHNnWHFxN2pDcUlrUkRZcHV4SS1reXViY0JCLUNxQjlvX3ZaNHlRTnItRUQyd2pxd2wxNUFRcXRKNU1zdVZrcXRKRkVIZE1YcEd1SGZIU1l2bHBTc010Zjhwcy03VENWdmdlZ01uVVFfbFdISVRSb192MHZudzUweVpQZzA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635916-us-iran-energy-attacks-pause/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/ukraine-strikes-key-russian-oil-port-and-refinery?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/23/what-trump-said-about-iran-after-postponing-military-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/635922-persian-gulf-sea-mines/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104754-zelensky-warns-of-possible-russian-massive-strike-today.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE05UDBYcG9nNXA2c0NaNS1zRkNVWjlFODFSVW9Id3duaW5CVmRJemZLVWQwdkNHZml6Q01LVVVtbWg2RTZudXlLdXVHemZUNXpmN0taY1N6aVhHMGJWbmV0TTJPNnNtWmZxMU5USWM4MFZfN2liR190Rg?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPNG1XQ3RiWWFnZ1VRVmFUN1FHcHA1dEdDdnJXMjRabk52bTRKQTRxOEMxR3ZzUG40b3ZxaHZfM19ua2RJam5PdnI0d0R0NGU5VkwzU2Z3dnBqZUpMS0tNTDFyUHdMOGNCVW5KZ2hkZ2NGNXhLS1dIWG1wYlFoRG9wejRQNC1nVHdibkpfbFBHcS00ak9LU3Blc3c1RS1IbkRWeVFvSFVaZm1MZkZtSk92Q0lpdUNMRFk?oc=5
2026-03-23
2026-03-23
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗完全封锁风险
- 中东冲突扩散至海湾国家如阿联酋和科威特
- 伊朗核设施遭袭击可能引发更广泛地区冲突
- 美国地面部队介入以重开海峡的可能性
- 北约集结增加军事对抗和误判风险
- 黎巴嫩平民伤亡加剧人道危机和地区不稳定
- 伊朗新领导人莫兹塔巴·哈梅内伊未公开露面引发内部权力斗争
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀和避险情绪
霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁 / 油价飙升 / 资金回流美国
伊朗报复性袭击 / 地区不稳定 / 黄金和美元上涨
谈判进展不确定性 / 市场波动加剧，影响资产价格
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Sky News / The New York Times / Global Issues News / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQT3ZNV3EtM18yTjlzZDNUYlU3YXljZGRUY0o1N1ZXQ1FvXzVOWG45VUJ6SW1kNTRhU1hEQUpGMzVRVE5pUnNMazZ3VGxHc0lsZE1YRnFudndka255bTVEMFJnM2ZhdkZNdDdLbDIxWGxpbnBzRjlKQ05TWEJoR0JOekFncXpucVFHd1A4UVNnak0xd0lHMmxFemU2Ti1TTkHSAaQBQVVfeXFMT3V5aERRUlAxQmFnYk5NQXZ5ek9OaXhRdlVJTXVfbm9teTRsWDBPNmJxTG1hUW1kTkd4YXZaZHlSdTdlWFdWVGN0ZDB0QkdoOWhGbkRyZzQxRm1GN2pVMEJoWE9xWlRrcmRjYWNOY3NhX0d4REtuR1I2dUtEamJkMVJfZmdURHllNmRnb05qbTRUOWVqR1NxSTR1RmFhRnc5UWpwVlg?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxPV1l2bGRCNUZZSnBSb0JSc1RqdG4yZXRvV0cyczhsRDNtRHVyYWZjclhYdVJTZmZHR1RES01FbXNSZkZCUEM0Zm9DQkVFQW1xTDJaV0JJZi0xTkFrYmJFaTlFYVMwaHN4SjRMcVlNNGJMN21yZGdGQmVfQTJxUEctNnB4SzRyXzJWRVVTOUNENEx6eHhLVzhpR21UUHZYYUFKM0JXTWtoTXVkaVlUNXpoQl8yYVBJM2twdzBna3M5TTA2UQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/iran-claims-missile-attacks-on-key-israeli-military-bases?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230031383jb
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260322232612fdX
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNaHBrbloxQjlGRzJKSy00dEQ1Qm9VLTZ1VmQ3ZDUtNlZSYzhYSXE0WDYyLXJrSjZGd0lvS0s3Q2EyRzZieUtUWUlMb1loVmVfSUR5Y25rVlhnX092WEMwM0pNVFFQMS1ia2R4bmJhS1l4NHo3SUF4bHJxakVPdzZuQTBXSV8yblRoejhXcWtVVGFrNVIwM3F4czdmX0I4S0prSFJVVHR2ZmFNVTBhdE5PRm0zaWdaR2s3VW14dw?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/moment-iranian-strike-hits-central-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323025052Hm3
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-hints-wind-down-war-051853034.html
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603230243549b3
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/22/we-do-it-together-in-confidence-netanyahu-backs-us-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-to-chair-cobra-meeting-over-iran-wars-impact-on-the-economy-sky-news-understands-13523061
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/risk-of-escalation-is-extremely-high-as-iran-shows-it-can?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9jcnVocFJLNzlNR1REN0dXWWpZaGdOTDJUWTlZREdLQnlOcEtNZXdBbUwyNHQ4SDNmOURQNmZVT2hSX2xYeEdRUEh2dHp4WWp0b3pvREF1Smk2LWoy?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5XTFdWUGE5cERnZkhaTXJxOUM2cWFfNHJzMnNzbmxfQkNmTk53Z3dZdkdIM1F0Q1pNV2xRMVBjbWx5MEplVnZIbW5hdmdFYlRLdnBSSi1IYUhjNnN1Rm1TbDFfZ2ItbjI2?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNejFFOG1nc0JZSUs1clVVTEdvb0dOVVEwejJpUlRFR01RUWtfRFVBUW5iYkVpYXNoamxDSXVvVkJEa1JJWkQ3VmtsNDRqNVhfMVNvbUZHMlBocHZfUTFqdms2SGZjV1RnVUk1WGJ4YUNacU1FdUppblNjdGpBQU95N3o5d0x2bEJGYjVSMzJNQUx5djVjNm8zV2JfQm02S1NGeWlpRDAtY0pRQzBTRHfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTVhUbV90T0EwWEs0azhVbk9vN2JHWmx0dURSOTF3a19qUmxzMDQwU3JELTV2SmRsMUFKOVU3NFZxM0t4czFSUXVlZXJsRmtVZThxclpHamNoQWJadFdnX3k1U1pXa1h1TTNJT3B5Y29CeXJzXzUxbTdSbFlFaWhXYkpWdm5vVFJtRnpRRGVJd0tmU3ZVWjZLNXVUbGxZZkdwMEtOYTV
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/gas-prices-south-southwest.html
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFB4am5wWjBMYmt1ak8wT1dxNHdzTUJlaWd1ZFBxQ0hmYlVDVUdWeEZ2aFQ5aTJ6Q2I2LV9fcjhWMF9sZG1mMDlIRncwampXY1NhRnRhTlhkWlpjTmZaeU5EWTdDeGdkYXFfeEN2VzM2NXE4QQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNclpXV0tqN3l4dmxLZFBuS3IwUTFteTFSeGlxYUE3aENPSGdub0IyaEptN01JSnJudmZUaGlvUzktS19XOV9KTW9NVVFoWUdqRzdscjdTQUd3WWJLUTFxMWZtcTUwTXNiaExNYlFXLWpPcFEyQko1eXVHTENrQjlWYWczX1FBWDJlSHRnNjlwMXdOanBuSi1zMlZaVkk5N0lKUVR6cGE5ZDFsREdsRl9jRUp6UW7SAboBQVVfeXFMTmg3a1lwZFU0VElmREJJaUh5UjE5ekZTLTYwLUZuNU9Dci1rcDVRbXJrcWhBZUN1ck1kRWpLdldobDRqZUVnOFVDaEQtRjNoaVVNTVFoN0FlODdjNnE5dmR6TlZfNjh3Z0YwSmVsYlVYODQ0MlRMRXN2M1lVRVJabi1tbHNJRGtDX1g3YXpRV0tadXZweklUTmdlbEJTRzd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260323003254LDq
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iranian-authorities-taunt-us-israel-eu-amid-strikes-and-assassinations?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/21/42609
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBxQlZJNlZWNXI1Q1ZVMmVMaHFKc25vekYtQmtqZl81cjk2SDRQQmRuTUxyU2RnZ3JfSkhxMzhZYkdiSWJEX2hDbGdxYzdDTEdJZndZakdJSENmQXdmajlDNWY2ekdoajFYQy1LZW5wV3dDQ09nbTIxaG9lZzVjLVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/trumps-changing-messages-on-iran-war-what-does-it-say-about-us-strategy?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c3v6k0l631vo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/iran-says-will-hit-regions-energy-sites-if-us-israel-target-power-plants?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104328-iran-launches-nearly-30-missiles-and-drones-at-uae-today.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQbEtmcldBb2JsM1BrQ2pUdFpRS3JVZTZmSXBjZ0R4WHVqS201OTVJcWFHQ3Q1eVU1WERjTkx4bjM1MmprVGV4VFdVQl82TkdjOTlzQkpybmpqQ1lORGZjMy1vRWR2OUxhOUVlRjR0VmxJel9lT1ZySGZzdDZ0THhDVmhELTljbXZvV0dzWWRHVFVWcEx1?oc=5
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPbWJzdnNvOUlTV2Iyc2tVaVJuTjh5ZmJNb3JWLW9SemFheVo5OGRObFZ6MkVuSGRvNzE0ZXMwdEJfOGh1NWw1MTloVXQyZlplTG1GQ21zWDN5MXA3WmZEa0hPek1XS1k3a21sVTlCQlR0UXR5YTJ0WTV2Vnk5Z1pSR1FDRVg?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/22/opening-strait-of-hormuz-will-probably-require-us-boots-on-the?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-22
2026-03-22
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级可能引发更广泛地区战争，涉及沙特、以色列等国家。
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断威胁全球约20%石油贸易，导致供应链危机。
- 北约内部裂痕削弱西方集体应对能力，增加全球安全真空风险。
- 伊朗远程导弹能力覆盖欧洲，可能扩大冲突地理范围。
- 俄罗斯在乌克兰持续进攻影响东欧稳定，拖累欧洲经济复苏。
- 全球能源价格飙升可能触发经济衰退，加剧通胀和社会动荡。
- 沙特与伊朗外交恶化可能引发波斯湾代理人冲突。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市承压
能源价格飙升 / 企业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产抛售
北约内部分裂 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求 / 市场波动增加
来源
Google News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Deutsche Welle German News / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOenB5SlRRNUV6NHphaFY0R0lraWlzNVVJMTU5UVRlZGlGZnJMTnRuQkthQTljUkZ5ZDRxbDNJanJ2Y19LWUJqdjV2WXUxdXpoc09HcTU4NmZhS1dqc2ZnTlFiaFBjanRmZlNoZzlybjJKNGxQVHRCOHdXWHNkdUFyUGdDenkteUF0dXgtM24xcnBTd0NZZnY5RVJmXzIzN1ZxN2xGNklUNktzMmJMcUhrYtIBtgFBVV95cUxNR1RCUHlVcnJ5R1ptMFBMMWtxa2l2SERnR016ZEJBY0xXZENsSWoxcXowRmVLNTZ6MVg4UjNQR2FfUUlQdXBYWmZFQ2NjdUZ2WmFEaUdGSjJYSng3SGRiN3JYSFdvMHhvMjJOdGQ3YXhNcEo1SzBsbDFZZ3pNOUlUTVViQ1J3WFlPTjZ6ZWg4UVBTRFRZWTVVSFdxWXh4amVMMWx
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-natanz-nuclear-facility-hit-by-us-israel-tehran/live-76462692?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/635767-iran-war-destroy-nato/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQVEZnZGJQU0pGcTExb2l3ZWh5SGNLeXJZdGI4eHJneGRxRTVuM05INXEzWWd4V3NNRTNXMnE0b2diQXZCRFNqTGNyVTBLMDhRdU5iakVqRjhSd25VRHVqX05xcDNYVnlkbG9QdkY3TklXa0Z2eVEzSGNBdXktMzh2blRtUU1odzRpS3prV0V2VQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/saudi-arabia-expels-iran-military-attache-and-four-team-members?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/iran-strikes-towns-near-israels-nuclear-site-in-escalating-tit-for-tat?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOR2lrdEJGdV9VNWlrWWNzbFJhMlZTbDNPSjFmNzJuODN3MzBodndkd0I0dHZvWDNDRDc5SnYtdDNMVkpRaUJJNEtjc2xzdlBNelBjekNpT2Z4aFktUGRpdmJkQ0VBNGVVQUJDY2ZWZTh2SGRIc2Y5c3dxSXBIVVNFOG1lUHNPUQ?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNYk5oblh1ejY5YnJGbDFTQTUyaXZ2MDV6QUJRU2pPemM4bmJQVWowd0NsT1hxbmRSa1JXX0xKWkhPSVV2T05ySXZJNHJPQ0I1VWdtdlZZQ1JVU19NbjhuMkU5T3JKVWFUZmZZenlBZHlteUtWdm5uc2FMX251dUJRVzZpdU1ETThVVU1ySEg3U2VLeHBraDBVTUNTMFBjejl3NTRrUjZveFBDNGQ2YXM3MGl0VE13cVFsT0xjOWlVeHBXS1Rt?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/state-of-emergency-declared-as-iranian-missile-hits-arad-in-southern-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/us-says-it-has-crippled-iranian-threat-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOZTBKLU8wNmJnX2wwQmRDQmUwXzFFOGN5a1NFU2NBckQ3ZUV0SWJPNkYzRERhMDVBNHNmWDNWNnZUeFNkRnZEbDd3cG9CN0RlaHJmUVhQc0RRZWFMMWJQV2gxdEZ2bXBXdlBNYXhoQldEcTVMV2EtRXByWlVrbGdYcmZmSzZtMW5iVF9kNnRxWUV3MElMMGFtcFlLYWd6LTgyWVlHYXBuWTB4UzRDMkhV?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNYmRtY3N4SWpBdERQM2sxSk50ZWVsN1Q3ZmstTDdCM0dNM0dsaW80WlliTTAzQ1oyOWdXZEZIek4ta2JQZW9XX3lmTkZhalM5SVFhQ0IwemdETWhLN1k3T3YtOHc1Sm9jSGFHSnNQbVhRdG01bmFKRmR6QnBCV1VoR1NndEhTTWFnekFLWlN4cEJ3ZUZheVVEYmtCRnRKXzhGZ1RwWUt1ZWNUendWRnZaMmRjMDlTYjREaGJrMGZrbHg4QQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE9PY0h2QzNpNTdxaGI5eWJ5SE05US1rMEdQX213MGdIeWF6eFB1bFBxQWZUM1RjOEpBQm9NeEpHekpXZmZLWldjMmN1bllEZk5jUktTeWxsb3ZIMXp2?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxORmV1TE01QU9sR19VLVR6aURXTzAtVFV6dk90b3FTOXZtcnZQYkM1bjVheTJBVklNbFhpVE54dDFrT29KWl9FZ1B3a3RqdmJXMkktWVluQzBSMlM1QlhmcXpLSmY5T0M4VFpzWElIeF84MXVsRE1LdFIyMEozVjZmd0w2WDl3MmM5eUZTcExPX2VqOGdDZXlSQ0liLUlwY0JZ?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE1jRGZTUnJBRzJkVGdEbHV6TVlzbU1IS2cyeWt4UjhsUms5QVRWX20ydVVkWVN6aWlzOFdMVVhWT3JOT2sxS2J0aU9FLUVjSDRCRS16MEttQnJydzZL?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxOV0ZCVlJKLTM2NFJwX3ZJT1Y1aXNwNW02eXl5dVJvZXU0QnBOM2lHakgyaklXLUVnX0NLVlp2M3FVRHdueEp6TFdUeHVYakI4Rm53Y3V2YVZBU0pVWUtyeWp1S2phNDZlTHNid1lvSG8tSld3S1M3UzZqSTNSMXlrbmxsX0FtMTVVblVLbHR2YTc4YTNUQTk0SXVCYWVzcjAtVnZPMXoyNVBBb0JyeTY0aE1Uck9YQQ?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQMGpleDBJbHI1bVNsXzZGSDZRV0xqV0dnOXV6ZHlMRjRmSFhHMDh0bXJOT3ZoSnJ5NEdzMFY3SFdFeDE1S3VMakhJa2o3aXZoT05zcnpCcXcyQlp3dzVjVElOU0dUdVl5WXo0TUdvRzlLd1pUOUR3YVhCT0ttc2FKUl9NS3FGd2t2MEZtUmdlTUFlejRoYzR0MDRlWnBwakw1UnlheEx5LS1fX005UzhqM0Z2UdIBuAFBVV95cUxNT2FDODNFRkZtSkgxNk5adk93MEI2aTRvdXR3VDZFZkRiYURzN0lRTGdHV2JlRGxWb1liTzVFX3lzLUpaTmJUYnZySmxSbG5rUlBVTmN0aDhzYkY3TXhIdjljd0NvT2dGQWczbXFwMEl1MHBxa1d1bXlxM28ySG8yb0VLU1I4aFZkeGJweHRnR1JRNVlCM3QwYS1Hd1V1bE1
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQWXNaYUpMSHBaQnM0a2Z2MGlfOUg0RmJMR09TSUE5ODVPQ2pqTG9JVVJBVFJyQ2RZYlgzZEhLRUFOdkpYTWRLc1owYUptMjNfQnFfcmNlankxTWdUbzF3T2hQSHp3bTF3cVlSbW1EVkdsVV9lZlRoc2JRM0t5aGF1SG1ZTW84YS1raUt0WGQwNG44YnBzMGljZEFVWmJkZ9IBowFBVV95cUxOUGY4SXRpMGJyRm5UUVVsU1J5NF9OeWxUWjc3dDFyWDZGUi1OWC1uRERQNWc3RFFNX29WTUtReGwyR2JmdHdZZ0JvSnVpZmZJVVNIRnZOQTl6VFBSaTc1dmo2aWN1bVBaS2gwbEtaaGlXSFU3VUo4VnZUMkVwa3NvTGk2YVpSbm9QQ0VnRENsSnp6TE80SmpaeUVyM2ZPclpnTG53?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/eu-urges-members-to-start-storing-winter-gas-as-iran-war-causes-price-surge?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/635748-how-far-could-gulf-conflict-spread/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxNVWlPb3NHWEZYUV9FTjBCVndXbFNZVnFyWXRNbHJDU1JnNlRXbmhqb2g1UjR5a2xQcmNIZWJCMHVKelA1YXk5NEFnTmdfakhETnUxUmVhazIxSTNUUmtHTVpJMklkOHdMUEVHZno1cEJ1NGREMTBURTJEOTV2Zy1YYU5YaURjb1RqcEhMYWxiWFJaeWxVZFBIaEhhZ2pxOTREQTR1TmFPRlJoMDBCeWUyWkRoU1Ftd0NGVkY2dlI4dnE4UQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.dw.com/de/iran-krieg-teheran-sieht-keinen-anlass-zur-diplomatie/a-76449132?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/israels-regierungschef-netanjahu-der-iran-wird-dezimiert/a-76447499?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/us/politics/battle-for-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil-us-israel-choke-point.html
- [26] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/opinion/iran-war-trump-lying.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxQOXk3X1NwMHZYN0w1dmM3eDZkd1FVeDFLM2tsU0V1eGhqdE9RTmpPZ0RKb1NvdlM3VzlON2R3U3RzQU5vbEZHT18xQU0wQkZFZVZPQ05XUW5rS1lsdS1wQWhpaTBoTlZpNzlhYzZzN3R6R2szOHZjd2UtUklKMUNERWJkaTgybkFXbTdXOG1ta1RRQlFOaFU2bg?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/21/uk-says-iran-missile-attack-on-diego-garcia-failed?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQV2FMRkxCdzFTXzRNTHYyOWhyTXo3TDJ3b3M0MmpRMjRvVlNLRG1FMGNyUFQxRWFoNlRNbDBaYnA2Z1ViRVM4dmZuM043d0FZR3gyUkUzLU10NjdvRE44VU9ST3h5cGdqVmo0ZGdjWHBvcUM3ZmVjaW1WZzMtNVY3aHpFNXQ5Qk84V29vYU1renF6SWdJcTNxSkFGbEs2Zkg5ckwwV0dVc0E4Y3d4Yk5ydVNsZjRPWDVwYTkzQkJ2MHFLRXVX?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4104133-war-update-43-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-most-intense-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
2026-03-21
2026-03-21
进展要点
- 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，威胁全球石油运输安全
- 伊朗威胁全球旅游景点，扩大冲突范围
- 俄乌冲突升级，俄军在多条战线加强攻势
- 北约从伊拉克撤军，中东安全真空风险
- 特朗普批评北约盟友为“懦夫”，联盟关系紧张
- 英国允许美国使用基地打击伊朗，加剧军事对抗
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 全球石油供应中断 / 通胀上升 / 美联储政策收紧
能源设施袭击 / 天然气价格飙升 / 工业成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 股市下跌
地缘政治风险 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 全球资产配置调整
来源
Prime Minister of Canada - News / France 24 #3 / Global Issues News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/03/19/joint-statement-leaders-canada-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260320-guerre-au-moyen-orient-faut-il-craindre-un-choc-gazier
- [3] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/03/20/42592
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/635536-iran-israel-qatar-war-energy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE1aakJWRHJxUEJERGhITlRxS3ViX19sYlltZVl4ZVBLMU93bFJ1Q0k5SWtpWFBUazlHN2x2bU5GdXcxM0dyMU82Qm9tQzhQTnZUVEZtd2xn?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-says-considering-winding-down-iran-war-but-rules-out-ceasefire/article70767398.ece
- [8] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-heute-donald-trump-erwaegt-nach-eigenen-angaben-militaereinsatz-gegen-iran-zurueckzufahren-a-ada3a0c1-bf0d-44a1-a66d-48a23b3223ff
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-trump-says-us-close-to-meeting-objectives-opposes-ceasefire-with-iran/articleshow/129709333.cms
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260321000353315
- [11] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/uk-allows-us-to-use-bases-for-strikes-on-iranian-missile-sites/article70767389.ece
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE02b180dHpSREozbXl6aUtXazlWMWVsX3FRUUQ2ajZBUF8zSk8wUnMyLVBQTXNWbGRSUlNObzNFYjQ3MXdfMTVkZGQ5eExKc19VT3B5RQ?oc=5
- [13] https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/jerome-powell-says-blame-data-135528565.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQbzljM25ZTGhrbUF5R2RCbXF2SEFmS09GRGNoUHBaci1yQUwtVjZ4N1hMWXdEbGFpUnR2a0VEdzlFa3dBODllYlFyMnBtYzE1ZmdVcV9vdUNoX2hPeUZoaFQ4dE4tejhrY2lGRFRUX0NmUXhDaTVzRG9jUFJjVE9QYWZZZHp3Vi05ak1IQml1LXQwTTE3OElXaEppaHBQSWpVT0NRTnRvVGk?oc=5
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260321/945422910d2849e09b2b921213e0d9f5/c.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxOdWxHRGNTTnpjZlUxTS12aU9UalFlaWtfblctTVluZFJlaTFyRU9SWGM0d3FtZVAwTEpQaWhqT09iUWpaLUNSbkt1eXJlVnB3UmRGUlZ5QjZYSEhOTGNGWHZ3TmJMY3UzSk42azZ5dlo1MmhsSnBybnJuNERfbnpNSmNINTFBOTZEb0FUUlFwNk5HTGhFa2xremlnQUNjUlVGS29uVkctZUhJeTVZaVNUQ19kMi0xUWVyeXVscVVRR0x3TktfTGJUbg?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxORHZrQk1BTFNOV2h1Y1FDV2pPeV9BeHVvVnZNWTdxOGlpWnBCOFlHQnhtamcyUW1tREd6SzVOSmM4UXZ5UjJXWGFHZ0tSZmNacG9jWlJPanIzTm1ETXBlbHZJMmo4b1lvWnFzd3NmaDJHaGxIZy1MSy02cHQ4bE4zNFJSZVlQOTVTTDNyS2dBTC1uMFZwTHg1OTJvSXpQbEZlTVVGdmdveFhXcHVEdW91bGlPd2FmMWlaU0tZ?oc=5
- [18] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/03/19/declaration-conjointe-des-dirigeants-de-lallemagne-de-la-france-de-litalie-du-japon-des-pays-bas-et-du-royaume-uni-sur-le-detroit-dormuz
- [19] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1048858/irgc-iran-nyatakan-juru-bicaranya-tewas-dalam-serangan-as-israel
- [20] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/ran-threatens-global-tourist-sites-as-us-boosts-forces-amid-escalating-war/article70766856.ece
- [21] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-israel-war-usa-west-asia-trump-netanyahu-live-updates-march-20-2026/article70764069.ece
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-authorises-us-to-use-british-bases-for-strikes-iran-missile-sites-targeting-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-/articleshow/129708297.cms
- [23] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260320011500315
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/20/military-movements-indicate-trump-is-considering-iran-ground-operation?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/20/aje-onl-aj_tt_irn_whatdoeseudo_av_v2-200326?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4103929-russian-forces-intensify-pressure-across-multiple-frontlines-as-weather-shifts-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36rny6xgppo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPSnQ0UDZwS2cyZlZwNFoyVF8teHlLb0Ywekt0TlQxdnFFeXVDRG44THZJMHltMGFSa3dGV1JVc3Y1SlJVUm4tM25RWVM4SDNmcXByZkZidTkwcmpaZEx1Y2R5NzRXU2lPZnhSQkVYUDhva3Q4X3Myc3p2Tl9PNGdNOHJoa25kQ3NyUlVKSWg0Q2ZZaEN1Mzd1dkFlaXg4cVQ0LVdSeDNTX0JZd9IBrwFBVV95cUxOU3VyWWdnczEwTGhoUkJGU21DNUQzVnlCelhSbV83MlQzR3NzYVlpYTQ5UmRzcXd4VTB1QUtjd1NDUldEVEc3akhFVzBCdDZCS1pqbHROMmFKVnBDOGp3eURMcUxTajNxcFRyNjh6Ynlrd2hRbGQ2cWxNci1wbE53SWI0bkVBYTNPRVRFRm9MODFXNnNCWlUxMVhJLVZ6UzZJcWdTRFVkQVJ
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOSTQyRFM1dE03MXExaXc0LUJRcEdMTlhJSXFIbTRwSVdKcGVkbVJmUXdzQ2FELTJydXVKVXNhV1RIdXdhdkpac2lJeWl4VGNsXzV1dHMyMHpEMmdrbkVLQXByZG5PRlB4UjZ4UkhieGhmZ0tzdXdJTGxUNXJERXlBQUN2dVFXR3ItNTFnMEktdzZuOUQ4ZTRRMDcwcXNxZkJkTndjbWdzd2doVnNkTm9fbFFpR25QSzA2ZDFGVmRMNjhzbkxZVTM1TUI4M21NaVVPM1lKVUJIQ091VHZz0gHiAUFVX3lxTE4wSkFiaXg0MVFmOGh1MEN6b0N5V1FSZUVqb0FiUzNtZy1Qa3dRT3VHaFNqNzRRYUt4aUE0ckU2S0kzQXlhZWtxZXAzN1R6eFBBTEJPYlhYS0R3UlpTV0pqb1hFT0hiMWxDRld4cG5BQ3Jab0EyYnR
2026-03-20
2026-03-20
进展要点
- 中东冲突演变为全面能源战：伊朗、以色列、沙特、卡塔尔等国能源设施均成目标，全球约20% LNG供应和重要原油出口面临直接中断风险。
- 冲突外溢至黎巴嫩：以色列在黎南部占领地点从5个增至18个，真主党发射约100枚火箭弹，叙利亚军队在边境集结（RT News），存在开辟第二战线风险。
- 核设施安全风险：世卫组织警告伊朗核设施遇袭的“最坏情况”，俄方谴责对布什尔核电站附近的导弹袭击（RT News）。
- 海湾联盟裂隙：美国开战前未与海湾盟友协商（DW），引发对美军基地安全性和联盟可靠性的质疑，阿曼外长直言美国被以色列拖入“非法战争”（RT News）。
- 乌克兰战争持续：联合国报告战争进入第四年，造成严重人道危机并持续威胁欧洲能源安全（UNRIC）。
- 跨大西洋关系紧张：欧洲领导人公开反对特朗普的战争政策（Bloomberg），可能影响后续联合行动与制裁协调。
关联路径
中东能源设施遇袭 / 油气供应物理中断 / 能源价格飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策更趋谨慎 / 增长预期下调
美国政策分化（增兵 vs. 松绑制裁） / 能源供应前景不确定性增加 / 油价波动率上升 / 通胀与增长预期模糊 / 资产定价混乱
美元指数大幅走弱 / 资金流向非美资产 / 欧元、英镑等货币升值，新兴市场资本流入压力减轻 / 全球风险情绪局部回暖
地缘冲突升级 / 传统避险资产（黄金、美债、美元）与战争相关资产（能源、国防股）获得资金关注 / 市场内部轮动加速
来源
Xinhua Finance / Sky News / RT News / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ECB Press Releases / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-last-24-hours-show-a-prolonged-conflict-could-do-calamitous-damage-to-global-economy-13521949
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/635540-israel-iran-chain-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPWmJURWNuNE1qQXlDVW9CZ1VsdXg5bFFDazhKdTczM2FNcS1BRzB4YTNSbVcydkZQWFJ6OEZlMk5EbzFzVnpOUlNDVnZQd2hVc053d1QtR2pBUHBPbl8xNzVNVnBtWEdtVFc2RnZldlVvUGU3Z0NUY2QzU1Z6TEd1c0tDUWNhOGlDSExHQ25ydUZSMmloYncyVF9HMWRLYTTSAaQBQVVfeXFMT185TFFjVUItV29qMHhGRmlSRWpMaU9oVzV6RHgzYk0ycjJLZFBHNlRITXhQbWlzdFBNZ2p2MW9BaWJsekJxRHhvTWVPYmRwdWhhTk9lUXh4WDBOZXFtajhuRjN5QWRZNE5OMHhUWndXa3lZQ1BxZFBwbXR2bXhUWndzQ1ZLa1cwRjlydzBHWTFERjExeUs2bTFySzYxd0w4VmhZTVU?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1wM0VKYWFMRnNkN3VCZkwwU0RqdUJadHhzTnVpeEdwaFFBUENvcWlEb0dFTTFmWXQxZDBnMmFXcFN4SjJuMzlfUGt5QkhBNjctRWFQb2lDZjJKZXluVWhhT0lMSkEtRzIxRnRrcXAzNE5nU19MQXVIdw?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxNVFZrODBQekpaMWh5Z1ZGbmlGcjZwNUxzb3BQOTlmQlpIVmgzeHZmZFRTUjk5QldEbDVDakZjZWV1aVEzOThxVjc5cjVsaWl6cFNPRmZBa0o0eEVSU21kcHNISkJqUS1ZNGVibkJZUTJzdzVNYy1lZ2FwZ1JkN3Vlb1JKcWVobzQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQSW95TzhWVVJJWG50bTRTME5QRHJqeTM5TW95ZXhHTGJwQW9mY25FaXJCUVhpb1ltc0NkX0U0OWV2Z3lVSkxfN3lha1JLNjRFQ1NfQ19MUTBQRENKdFVNbDNZNkd3VGlQcXhFXy1MWmVaaUt4Uk1kY2hzUXRMb1d4WHh1cFdyZmgxbmg1XzBvNkd0VFJ1VlhLQ0VDdjY2RFBxaVlIYlhqZktHODR6WUhGeA?oc=5
- [7] https://www.rt.com/news/635572-invasion-incoming-lebanon-braces/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/635565-eu-energy-tsunami-dmitriev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2k3jgy9vq3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOak42eXk0ZnZVMURLQUp6N29pWFp4LTFydHpLQ21XUTNMOUI2LWdiXzRKUGpjS0hlZ2NhZ1VBb0N1M0o2cXpzcllFTTRPUy0yalZRbTl5aUJrZGFkTmFLSXdRSmZFdy1TelUzOXRobmFVbnQ1TEJlaFIwZURrTjVJMWw2eXgwVmFKN3hVNWhiQm5JbjNqRUdqcDUwRjFJTkFBMUU4UXA1Y0VwaGpRdzZVUjFQbw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOZm05M1lGcFZGVEVReFcyb3pUWjlEdjRhVHNEeHJYNGhMSHh2b0JLVVZ3eGFzdFNRcWFxekR0clBLNVlYRjl3VFNLYTZ3ZEZNRkwxcUdOamdTU1UzWGVQVXJ2SVBCYTJabmFfdEowZkk5SGotUzUzT0lPV0NSQTN4eUpNclg3QnNpQVpZ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/netanyahu-says-irans-uranium-enrichment-abilities-destroyed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxOY3NCMFFRSk1hc1p3enhncl9PTEFaNk5CVzh6MUdONFhWajhyX1oxUmlPT2I0akNjM2hYeHQzQ2NEdTlaZm5EVkxSdEQ0RnlpOE9TRG4yZkhpNTUzRWlFdUcwa3IzdGhZeGsya0FqTWN5X2ZUV0JlQ3l2Sm9RQTk0RXN1YUZqRWJob0wyS0hIOXpzdWxHMm1yRUJvWHA4d1dWMFp3MjV2cWhkNEdDVEpmTFRoaVJ6UHdfRHBKTEdB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/19/how-will-israels-decades-long-assassination-policy-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260320/aa83628e1d4b4717abc8aeb37835e488/c.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOd2Y1WG9fV0tUOExiVW44aHZJS1pKeHZxXzA4TE1kUFdHOHN2YVpnXzFWdFEwSmZQMElYV2FHaHYyUy0zcklRLXRMN2oxTFZ6UThXdnZHTWI3Z0tfdHNtUW41RUxfUVFnbXdlTVhzNkREWC1wSDFiRDBCWHFvRzh4T195Y0FTR1pUTEhOSmJucTNKNWxYRER1NWdyZW84MVB2S1NTRnhzSFZGUkQ2N3A5QdIBtgFBVV95cUxOZDBjWTNKZ2pMMmdmd1dJVm9GbkR2ZDVFQkxBSDA4SXpQODVMNnM5M2trRV83N1luZFJXTXBlNUU3Nml3SDhub0xWQkRvaUlmMVNJTlJ3UHNPcG9WdjNLbUxKWWdaaGpLSTRibXpQNlBNX0JrcFpINDhGS1NBWG1fR0ZKUGtiNkxjUTZlTGw2eWRZMDJjZ2ZpNzRPcVc5cHViU3I
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQUGZKYzlydEdoTGdkSkRqbzg1RU91VzdKY05qdGVPa05CcnlWdGtYS2I1Y0hhZkRUWlZIdlBKNlctaHYwNVJzellDX2t0cTZHNkFMTklvS2Q0d2xkQ3N0MjFPN1hKamczZGdwU09RY2FtSy04bm1OM3JTMk51YTdJZWFNUDRxdmJNWHpkOUlHdlFwZVVUZlN0ajdvZEZ3NzFlclg2NW9tbHJ0V3lkc1HSAbMBQVVfeXFMTlpBU1JtbG5EM0tmTXprTloxZW1vRXN3d1dHcHYtUDVManJFS09abUpjS2dONzY0SlJBS21fcjBmdU1kYzc0d0NhaHp5NzBBbkdkTWYyWHhmOHk5M1dhdUZDT0JiWVRDQzhQby1jUVJhM3ZnalBjZHNHT3VNX0l2bXpqNmw0cjZzNTJKTmNEZVJBeHpiczF0YnZYcHY0NnRzSXhGbmR
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/trump-invokes-pearl-harbor-to-defend-surprise-attack-on-iran
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA1REoyQjZ2WDdyZVdTeVZsVTN1TTZfUE5wdi14QVZyU3RyblAzLWkwNXdibjNVaDZpa3BSOWxBZ3I0MzdRUGp5Z0N1ZWF4YjktZVBkODhvalNTUkRYTWxQMzM0Njlxd2s?oc=5
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/635548-who-nuclear-catastrophe-iran-us-israeli-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635550-us-help-ending-unlawful/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/635571-saudi-arabia-threatens-military-action/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/smoke-rises-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel-oil-refinery-in-haifa?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/19/irans-strike-on-qatar-gas-facility-will-reduce-supply-for-3-to-5-years?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://unric.org/fr/onu-et-la-guerre-en-ukraine-les-principales-informations
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/df75ca68d5a7da27.html
- [29] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/b4a912bebbbbdbf0.html
- [30] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-gulf-states-debate-us-bases-military-alliance/a-76414229?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
2026-03-19
2026-03-19
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级可能导致全球能源供应中断，特别是霍尔木兹海峡通航减少。
- 伊朗威胁报复可能打击海湾地区能源设施，加剧地区紧张。
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰谈判暂停，东欧地缘风险上升。
- 朝鲜扩大核武计划威胁东北亚安全，美国评估其对韩美日构成重大威胁。
- 伊朗外长指责美国发动战争，要求赔偿，冲突可能进一步国际化。
- 卡塔尔与伊朗关系紧张，影响区域能源合作和稳定。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
美联储利率不变 / 市场预期兑现 / 美元稳定和全球资产重新定价
避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市和风险资产承压
地缘政治风险 / 区域安全担忧 / 避险资本流动影响新兴市场
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Fed / Google News - World / Bank of Canada Press / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
- [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318b.htm
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNR3J4NDFISFF6T0kzdlJHRVk2OXBLYzBLOU5vd2Vnd0E4aVJ4UFlnbDVWVk95VVg1RkotVnpfRHp3ZTR0NlBaeHRLQkJmN2E1b1hJUWtoOFVPNVZSa2wzTC1HOTZsVXQ4RlhvZjJpSEU1UUxzcjFwdzE1YzdYckU3MkZCVUhCZUcwRVJRZkJYRm1wMDkyRkt0WHRXbHU1RE8wcTJPRQ?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE1tVnlOakNMOWNBeHY4ZEZ2YUNJcm1fa0lwYUp2enhhMk42LVU1YTdVN1Fkc3VRUzJrQ25iTE1BWW83X3g0TzBXMkRycTdNcmUtcU55SEhOX3A0T1gyZ1liQ1hfUnNOWS1JLU1hd0RQa3g1SUpMUG43Ug?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPVHE4X3NRdDRKd0g0Nnk5ZHB6WlFRdno4WmxLaEllMzQwM2R5aEozYzhXbFAwOHNYOVNyYmpidTc5WTlxdnNUWkdUS3ZNdUdmMGxYMVdjSnl4ZXpEZFQyTlJPSnAwU1RQOXQ5SWtlNjVVNEZFNS1vM3hvMGVvemhteUwwdGlWQQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/opening-statement-2026-03-18
- [7] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE02WGtUSTZvd0JlblNhWEZSOWhnb25vOGduUnZNdXM2NlFoVzJjcjRZa0lyU3NxX0FvTmxNRjc5d1h6Z01wYnZkQmREUVl2RmNZclhVd1N3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589119.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-19/10589120.shtml
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPMjVEUTJYMC1BVTVmVHlzdWcwRFZYMy1jbjByTHVuNUNEbVoyTzBweGNKTkhLM25WMTl2OHZaNXdEOHZQaFF2bTR0OGV2RFRxbTVNUjNoTFdnYnowcDlrRnFjbXZKS1RnN21FRUxPczhQUXE5b01QNTkzSXJRdzBpMlZkMzY1VVEzRE03X3J6a0FZaThfb3d4RG5vY003Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/e04604ffe1ac44368326e7851d83b5c9/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/635458-qatar-iran-israel-gas-field/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/18/us-fed-keeps-interest-rates-steady-amid-economic-geopolitical-uncertainty?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNRmVjTnI1V3hDTXFoeDg2b3N2dXFHN2RNSS0zMmpjSHEtZm1uMVNtc2dzeXpXcHZZS0sycllGcVRuVVE5Si1vS2JFV0JnbXJGbVhUT3k5dU9XeUlLNklUbC1JQmlOUWdSUms4eWxHVVlhM0x5WEJuRVVaODdoNmVmcE9PUURyODZfTXI5ZFh0RDk2MzQzcVlGdG00THh6WjNESWFv?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/oil-prices-surge-after-israeli-strike-on-iran-gasfield-irans-threats?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/18/israel-attacks-irans-major-gas-field-in-new-escalation?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/qatar-says-iran-missile-attack-sparks-fire-causes-damage-at-gas-facility?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5lc3FVRHNRZUVLakw3bUdsamVoWi16ejB4UHM2STgxQ2ZRcy1BcGFSQk1aUF96cWRuN1Rpa2wwcjVSSlBKMmxuTjRqQUZ0WnJleHNENHg1SnRudw?oc=5
- [20] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/c4c0f387210b408aa707a72cdffef069/c.html
- [21] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/84180bbbcd7e8151.html
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36364d06x3o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260319/4d2a6afdb40a47df8b989ac5bd9813be/c.html
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2d1dz14k51o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxPYV83RFlCb19LTWxsUnRHQ09lYmloQWthRHNMX0wzbWNpbU4xVFZEOGdUaDJWcFVlNjFDQXlyMHpuS2RCNnJpbk1lQS02bE9KZDlnNjdkZzNjc3E2aHdNLUtFd3pOT0dfQmZ2WjFOelRyODYwT1lKaHVEcUE1aVp5U0I3N2lQOEZ6b0JrcHhYY1lHNDZHa3hPLWdCdEg?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNbV9scnVOenFHVWJFYWdZYTFrTWVHM2lPLXdQRGF3azFrTFNJVVUwYXFCYk5lUk9oWi1wSTY0dVFFeHBhRHltc2ItemNZeXByS1A5TTFoRWdYR20weUhaZi13OWszX1ZKdi1oZ0VsNUd4UWM5RHNyYXBnRnNnVjlwMlVIRzU4ZG1UZ3VpVGhiclFhQy1oak01OVE4cDA3STRod2taQnkySQ?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPWWZCT3pudllWSmc2Ukd6ZVNvQVhNaUhfS2RzMXlnLU1KVUxNeXRLQzFacWNaTVJBQ2liRXFIaHJwWjJrWV95WDB4Z3NzUUlLYWZYY3d3WENRZno5cWhoVDJyb2tOTmh6Y2dpRGFQU2EtOEVPNUJYekdMWHJGeW1LVk9YYUJKd2Nm?oc=5
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-iranian-intelligence-minister-killed-by-airstrike/live-76402968?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260319001319INl
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260319000114lZ5
2026-03-18
2026-03-18
进展要点
- 中东战争扩大至黎巴嫩和海湾国家，可能引发更广泛地区冲突。
- 霍尔木兹海峡长期封锁导致全球能源危机，布伦特原油或突破150美元/桶。
- 北约解体风险增加，美国外交孤立可能削弱全球安全联盟。
- 俄罗斯-伊朗军事合作强化，加剧中东代理战争和对抗升级。
- 乌克兰局势受外溢影响，国际支持分散，削弱防空能力。
- 人道主义危机加剧，世界粮食计划署警告4500万人或面临严重饥饿。
- 美国单边行动风险上升，可能引发未经协调的军事干预。
- 海湾国家石油设施持续遭袭，供应中断风险从海峡扩散至产地。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡受阻 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀飙升
美欧联盟紧张 / 全球安全不确定性 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
石油价格上涨 / 消费国经济放缓 / 货币政策收紧 / 股市承压
地缘风险升级 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流动变化 / 新兴市场货币贬值
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317215555sNj
- [2] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2164557d89594613a56d64d4fdd26f58/c.html
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nato-making-mistake-on-hormuz-trump-says/live-76387955?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQdUZpanFtQVFoMUo0RzVkazYxSjBackI3eWhlM21kQ0IzbG03RkxFa2UzUzYxRGJmN3dWSGlTZ0ZucldxaHlKanNaV3MyQ3RRaUhQMjdGT0xOQ0JVdFJuQzM4RS0tM0Y5MDBFUXhDa1VQemt0SWdUR05jOGJPN2RCWnJZcnkyNGFuMmhvc3NUNU42dkxJVDl4aHhmaElyZWRWUW9UbnZYV29OQQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588466.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588451.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-18/10588470.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOQVYwc3g1SHBTQUFKYTFtRjJKTDJXcThDbF93bUl2VC1yLUU2RS0teTdUUGpQV1I4S05YWHVyOWlicm9rS3MwV081LWlEQUt6blN4OGRZczBCNlFlOTVPZ3c4akNBcmFrSHBIMGNZV2k0emUxcmlhaWtZZW5BM2FWeHlvXzJfWFVtNUR3UUI5cVhubDRLVUdxaWJTVkNqY2l0?oc=5
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxQc1RpU1hvdmJZaC1NNE02TlBBUE5uNFFndUJ4MmxlREZCZkhEOHY2aTkxTEota05ScXZ4ZXU1M3BscVUyNTJ4VnZJTVNYM1JHT3p0eUdTUGRsRmUtMlEyRzFPcTB1bEQ2QzlXOVhVVWVhQldBTEdIYk1OQ0hjMmtkbEp6MWcyaExoWDBEd0RiTEFNZU5uaG83alIwMNIBoAFBVV95cUxQRDFlVTY5TGtrN2lWSVFWdGhmY2FRcWZmS21mTm5xYnozZE8xQmVzNl95RXRBUjZuS29BdTQ4eGpKU1lPejBsNjMxdWFXSGEycUMya21WN24xUEYxN1c4YmZudURUUV9sLW5XN0VIYkV1eE03bXgtNm1fRDBRUjVQajlPUlRTbW1ZWUZoZno2cDVKT214cmw2UV9CWTZTMjAx?oc=5
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260318080325mSr
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260318073426Hym
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/trump-says-us-does-not-need-strait-of-hormuz-help-despite-appeal?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/iraqi-capital-baghdad-rocked-by-powerful-blasts-near-us-embassy?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5tREFqY2plYjg1dUhxaDg4Yk1wV0YwMElCdGlkY0pzT0sydV9CQzNTWDllaWZEc0ZHMzVwbVp6Wk5MdjczXzZSUk85aUtvUExUNW9KWHZJQjBKUQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/4302adf7471c2579.html
- [16] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/f4a871322e6de0b7.html
- [17] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/c81778311ad21c48.html
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/635334-us-counterterrorism-chief-resign-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi6AFBVV95cUxQTDRXZmp2NV93VjdiNXFHX1hVT3RUOVZZaENaX2g2NmNGOFFTeDZFb3ZYdnVrQjE0YmdtaTZxc0JJQ2l4UzFFQTh5a2UwTm5xd0hOZDJfZzJWdS1MUjZkNVM0OTU3cm1OQnozUGc2WU5BakhCVVBzUkZGMEQyOU5JeV9nYm44V0hNeDZzUmtMSHQxZVVvZlA5OUlFVE5qYkd3dDVJRXRCR3o1ME5rSDlLOEwzX1V2QUJGYlJncFZDZWt6cXJKX0hMbUczV1V1b0hMRElIU0RHemxEU205YU5sbDZza2lwamQ2?oc=5
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-am-17-maerz-israel-verkuendet-toetung-von-ali-larijani-a-148e4932-3432-49aa-af78-69f4531254d0
- [21] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c24deezq6meo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxQdlhXdlMwTi03LVJFYktIVVRRMUI0QWpGcFdUQkMtYmY3eFBEU1cxT1YtblNDcy1FNGFQLWFzZ3V2N1N4b214LXcwNFQ0b0trNkpDWXY1M29oWUdSR2wxYVRFQ1VjZ0NyZTJFRDJ5T2ZGSU5YM3hSNm5GbWlMV2E4bDRMcEptSzJSLXlxUDV0Tm02N2tOQ1ptWVA3LW1ULTg3akZ3MktlN19FWlZKMjFUQmNjaTM3Mnh5cUNLbFg2b3JWQQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5481950/inggris-susun-rencana-bangun-gugus-tugas-untuk-buka-selat-hormuz
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNRDBZNlFoSEdzZVBFaWRZcmh0QTZuZU5wOXhkR0RpYl9XRlRCczFpNnhqNWJTaHczR3J1d2ZWZy1OM0pOTDAzT2Q4VE1Ub0s0eEg0d0o5U0ZXVlB5SFpuM1k0LVMxajVDRE0xSjlzTWFTM3lRNFZacVQ4YTJjTGREOGxHa1NMOXAwRGdzRGdrVWdsclU?oc=5
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10588412.shtml
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/635309-strait-hormuz-iran-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317214541PMn
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260317212732Gsb
- [29] https://www.news.cn/world/20260317/2e85c70d1e3f4e53a76f31f0fd6bfb22/c.html
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/17/the-us-israel-war-on-iran-is-shaped-by-religion-as-much-as-strategy?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-17
2026-03-17
进展要点
- 伊朗战争升级可能导致更广泛中东冲突，涉及美国、以色列和伊朗代理势力。
- 霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭引发全球能源危机，影响20%的原油运输。
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突持续，莫斯科遭无人机袭击，和平谈判停滞。
- 中美贸易紧张再起，关税措施可能损害全球经济复苏。
- 地区恐怖主义风险增加，如无人机袭击阿联酋关键石油设施。
- 欧洲拒绝军事介入霍尔木兹，可能削弱美国联盟凝聚力。
关联路径
中东冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升
油价下跌 / 通胀预期缓解 / 风险资产上涨
中美贸易磋商 / 全球供应链稳定 / 风险情绪改善
中国经济强劲 / 全球需求支撑 / 大宗商品和股市受益
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQdWh6X3pJTzBFT1lrSTRtcU11Tnlza0RJcjRuU290SlFORDUwU25jbW9yRDJfNzgxdy16c0VkNE9FNE8xSzUzLU52UG5SbmJNR2hyeFQyUVpYMnBlQm1FMjhTUGZoZ1JuUlNSTFdLRkZYOHA0TXYwSm40RjBSNzVlUGJlak9uV0xHaHRjd2hFRS1BaU1BRTB0WGJNOVQ4ME1nQ0HSAacBQVVfeXFMT09HU2M2SDhRbkJNZnQ5bEtfRkxLa1ZMWjY2Nl9taWZNV3pfNVpqOEZQWEZncS1LRVc1UlZkNHczQ05TNHRaZzQ0YjFvNlZFTXhJTkM3SFViUmN1UUgycGdRNVlsOTJPamluRjJtWEZ0RnBUajkyOTBkVnlfMXEtZ2tUbmp6dWhRbXpkU0JJWDJLdWdLdWM2WmNwS1V3Z3k0ZkoyWUVhdXc?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/civilians-pulled-from-rubble-after-us-israeli-strikes-on-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-uae-crude-output-falls-142513245.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587900.shtml
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPQ0ZvaGZWQVNDMFIzMXI5NUhpMklaekpDc2hQdmtBT2JPcmU3ajB1NGdRR3R3NEVRc1BFQzNmZXh6RGNjaDVFc3pHYTFTNDJfRHg4OVdxdEFkOUZHMXlrNjZrdC1aZnFEX0xsdlFxRVU3RzlGVm1YTU5UMnF5MVB5Q0lmWHNJMWlU?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/17/iran-war-live-trump-scolds-allies-for-not-joining-strait-of-hormuz-mission?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNTnpRQ3lnb1I5aVoxZWdGWFZNQ0pHUjR6TzhRSFNkWTdwQlJhV0g3clJuUzgtYlVYOFRLVkU5dkZpLVNYM3ZRVjlqWUtSaUxVbFNsSE9QcldwcllnTTVQSEFkc2lxVkZaQm00TGlhWTk0aWc3Z2ttb2F2RURjSHZ3TGZaWFN1V3FOcy1jeWpsMkxod2EyZnZxbVBvcEJqRjhHUGYwSWt3?oc=5
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/02bbfec081c846b680c3488a1237b614/c.html
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/trump-operation-epic-fury-anger.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075910BRH
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260317075936Fc3
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587873.shtml
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-17/10587870.shtml
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587875.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-17/10587872.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNNWpWbzhtaHpYdUl3VmRyYmJzN0ZmSzhYV28xelo1OHpvOXRUYTR3aHVPbzdVNkFoMlNxRVo0alNHaE1zSm00ZXB2Ty1MSHExTklLMFVZTVo5LVljYmlBMFpWS0VfRi1sNzB4UVJaMlMyNVpDa2lPNkFrRUFJazBJUXJrdC1VRmozWXBQMTdFWmZpWVpiNWZoQS1QVXFqQWJHQk5xSjFuMWRRR05pdXd3OXotUmdaRGhGR2c?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/trump-claims-strikes-on-iran-prevented-nuclear-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOcXpYNzBzOFFQejJnR1hBandJdzVtMjk1NU9qMG5IWk80NHZrODBqN3V5dHJRSUYwSU5RRDNITmh5dXpuXzQyWU9jaS1zVUExXzNuSzUwYXpYVzc4Rk81bGhqU3liYU51WWI1MG1fbU9LX2lkTXBFb09wRUpxa25nTHIxMzViQkg1WDhTUVNiOGZkWms4NGRHck9QT2xKcjdvR3k1SDAwVUJ0VUE4V0Ffb0N3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-seeks-to-delay-meeting-with-chinas-xi-by-month-or-so-amid-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxOMlRvSmdFeGxqMHZLY2NyZjI0cWc1UlEyTUNaRTR4WjlBWC1nVnNTRXVpQjhJWE9aWDUtWlUzTDZKMnp3WlZoOHByNmoycFczbldhWlFHNmp3S1VwNW9NN0EyeTRSQzliZkVuVjBleVhIUlc1dXNYanlCVHRMcTRpSE16dngzeWdPenpGeUk4T29Ma1JJaFpR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOM3NSSUFQSGc4THo3NHVTMWNSRkpoMnpnLXNvTk4yYlBrSXpydG0wY3k4NkdBMk40ZEpYaXRoQmtrTUFRTkVvdlFHQjd6aV9LMExGRFRGZENxQ1dFU1ItWm0tYTIyVndhcjVqSjFQVkFOUVhOeFEyRVpoQk9QdTVHRzFzLTBTaXJEbnR2Tnh2YVF2ZnF1SzZkRVRsYVRNeUt40gGmAUFVX3lxTFA2bTZUU0RVZUpCU2VzZlVCM0h2czluN2puTnJRZHltRURRMVFDZ09zZ1hHcDQ5ZlF1bXIzTzNicE1ybVNETzJOWDJKRW1oZ2ttNUZHc2NwVlZaYUpRUTFiTXRSSEMzbHVacGFZeXgwTTRmQnJPamdrMUxRbUo1UjNSNFNaSE1DTElhU1VIMVJyZzBxYXJRNlVoV1pSZDZadHlLTFk0b2c?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/635249-trump-world-demand-iran-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260317/abeeed7f095443298ab1350ba00a80b7/c.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/16/how-big-of-a-problem-is-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-donald-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPWm9rX1NfdUFFZ1dZTXhqMGRyZER4ZFp5eXZwV0gwT3p4MEJPR2VQYTJrV18wWjdRMjBiVU5PMkJkUW16NTNnS201dlRBQVJSZjV6eWJhVFdkc2hWOWZyLTFlWmwwX1pPbmVsNDhLQ2duamxDeTZtZmtjUmtlSE5VODVhazFaYkgtcVJ2dzVRdWREaFpkQl91Yi11TFUzQk9TQkR3UjN4eXl6VG1vQVc1Vzg0blRnVFBJQ2RwSmM2OHBRYWZIUVE3TtIBzgFBVV95cUxOTFpwZ2hfM1Vaa01zcC1idm5uaVkza05RTldvdlJzTk04SW56TGFyUXpiRHJmb2xRc0xkUkhkbksxUzN4U1pXZElUS1NidHcxMDM1OGdUblJTSzJVMzI3NDdidDdkbmZmNDBnWk9fNnlqOVhyaDYtdkJ4UUJNbDJSaVREcy1EWks1WHR
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBmUWNHLXBpdldRMVE1S0ozRUpZTEk5TzNHRTlXbURfTnlBOHdQV1l6d3dHMm1mTnJxaUJGQUNKZm1UMV9ETTRaRXpRaw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/16/israeli-forces-in-southern-lebanon-as-ground-operation-announced?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/trump-says-hormuz-strait-help-on-the-way-as-allies-reject-military-action?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/europe/europe-iran-war-trump-hormuz-warships.html
2026-03-16
2026-03-16
进展要点
- 伊朗报复性攻击可能扩大至美国在海湾的石油基础设施，引发更广泛冲突。
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运持续中断，导致全球石油贸易受阻和保险成本飙升。
- 美中关系因贸易调查和军事施压双重挑战而紧张，增加政策不确定性。
- 俄罗斯利用中东战争升级在乌克兰的军事行动，东欧安全风险上升。
- 海湾国家如阿联酋、沙特遭伊朗攻击，地区稳定受威胁，可能影响OPEC+产量决策。
- 特朗普政府单边行动（如要求派兵）可能削弱国际联盟合作，加剧地缘分裂。
- 伊朗外长否认寻求停火，战争可能延长，增加长期石油供应风险。
- 英国考虑向霍尔木兹海峡派遣反无人机拦截器，但风险过高，可能引发新摩擦。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和全球通胀压力 / 央行政策调整
美中贸易谈判与地缘施压 / 关税和出口控制不确定性 / 全球供应链中断 / 风险资产波动和避险需求
IEA石油储备释放 / 增加市场供应 / 缓解短期油价压力 / 降低通胀预期和风险溢价
俄乌冲突升级 / 区域安全风险增加 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市承压
来源
China News Service / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/635086-iran-us-kharg-island/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/moment-iranian-missile-hits-tel-aviv?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9YYzNLRkJjdzFUMVNUS1hrQW5kSkVfYU5qa3ZpVnlwSHdDUDNDRU15NFl0OWpWbW9wRzVLamZ5bTZabUVZVHNycVhGdzJIRmxuWVZRcGxRamd1dG5mekRES0lUbUU0eUhEeUM3U2duVFk4V293MVM4WG1kVQ?oc=5
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10587266.shtml
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316092310T0U
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316091506CIc
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNeUxQQzY4eUc3Z05ZZ3JEdU1WTHBJd3VOejFrRmJCMVpFT3JMVDV3eHBBd0J4NmJpZVdtZVdGM3VYbGFZeHFIVkRlRjlzem41YWlVakNCT0tHb1NsTTNVTnd2X3NkcGZ2OFNSTlRnYlN6ZzhKSmw2U2ZvRmx2QWk4UGFIUlZVbjg4dXlVWEVMX0xyaFVRVDVsUGpqbUduSjRDZWFGTWhBdV9CR1FYX2c2VWQ5QjVoTnFEMTQ1THJZV2pQbDJWUVNiWdIBzgFBVV95cUxPaXFxN1ZrQnVwbzE0bkdhbFB0cHlVTzVIYUF3Y0UyNjl2amUzcE9qclFPYjFub2ZON0F5d1Rsek92OU9jTzNWWjJ4eEZOczdKMDlRUVNsMzVtQ2RqOWY0bXd6dVoyS2hGTXFBczZjNmxrN3VEdVR5aWctTk53TlNrcWpna3RVR2NWM2V
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/15/whats-the-impact-of-the-iran-war-on-china?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-16/10587332.shtml
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587321.shtml
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0dlvl086eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPOXJxSGdudjU3bzh6ZHlQLVJNdHVxa0pTZElnV0JxOHVSckd6Q0JaeTRGMDRFMHROYXpoWldOeXhIQ205VEQ0RlZCUkw0UGtmLXdFSEJyTFZicXVsVkRuUUVrc19tLTNiQ1d4Qml1cXhhLXVpRFRPLUx5cGFOOFFvbS1jajhTZ1BNLTZ6MkE2VkI4blQzWk1BR0N6Y2dOUWc1N3ZPTEluVkJrUGgzS1lqS29zT2V6T1NjLUQ1aElLdUY0ZHhNLTdJ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-16/10587318.shtml
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA3Qm0xZXZrSm9BVmhMRVNTQlRoSWg0MWtoeFNZN2ctaG41NDlhdUpsSnQ5V0hCd1JfSnhzTGdXNHE2Z0MxakhuVTJ4MHNZTHRVVG8ybzBsTDM1M2doQTcydXhEWUFOaGc?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316061843kmn
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260316052639PnR
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxPY0hIVzdNUFprdVRNTkx2Smdhb2lyUjBwcUZQZmFmWjkzLWFYUy1nUGVOV3REMDVEVkQ0aFBQUVY3YklKZkpneC1yQUtjQjFrZDNodjBhelRZZGpWazJ4djZ4WkdEY2JzbnVKUVM1aXNaQUZwaG1HYXB6aHlta1U1M1ZYUTBvQUhnaFh6MkZveHpXdkdxMS1Ldzg1S2JLVTdZMk52WElKd1hWR0ZTTUdHb3NoS3Y5ZktwWENLRXhCbk8zTnE5b1Vnd04tbGhqQQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQdGo1V3dYMFh5dWE3ZXo1Q0VSSWVGWXZJZDZKUXBXQnVzcVhNRC1LallDSlNUTDVoTERHUnEyZkRyVDZuNzRVelI2Z1VqMEFHTzNKV2pQNWgtUlpZYU5HLWpSaE5FNFlkQXE2WF9DNF9OdDlTVjhQMUxUbG1vWVV2VTdZTnVWWWtVZTYyRTBFZTgwVllMMTR1N0kwRTlXTzl4YTdsSlk0WXF1RzhQS0tMVDRzSGEyMlVyQzFOcXpuS2hZd3N1UDhWbkRR?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1EMU5EeFZjbGR1OE9YRXdQVmFmVUVUNmlzcFYtckNmOEN4empraTY0UVFITmlJaVcxVWs5RDlvbG5VMWRVa3lMeHN1b00zYUliSW5hamdUTTRoUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/15/what-is-force-majeure-and-why-are-some-gulf-countries-invoking-it?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/trump-stark-choices-iran-war.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQV0EtVnVRd2FHeGJYUjAwWjlid01aVHNNVkdJS1pwR3NjNi1rX3RGNlZ3RG1xTDVUTWFVQ1psZnNRZHRIWFcwakgwejl0dnBWSFdoN2RsWENJUzFNXzZ1aUFaVmgyOWdwRHJXVFlpWTJrMTUwUnotbGxVcW8xQ2hKd19BaGhYeGN2QWxndGFlQU5XMzhmOFpRS0pLTkdBdjM4a3dmZGhCRktoSVE3LXfSAbMBQVVfeXFMT2tENFBrbVRMamozSlZrOTlMMkdNTnNYM2J2UTM4amY2bGdkWEc4ZUl0UUs3SW5tcktVTlRCUHFhcXVRd2RMcnJtdGtNTXpTWFNXOFJtQllxMzhhQmRFR1NQaDVMZFg3THBuZERkNmlmR0dqbWkwdEtNc0Z3anduaU9RMndnODVSMkVRN0RvTnNId3hKUHQ5TGZBUUVtVlFmOWFKQkd
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE4xZWdUQXhkXzVhT1RrLTBfNUt2eHoyOTZjbEJHNE9KbWhzWHBVbE1HbUJCclRSeWpZN3BrRXZKS2Ntczl5RVc4Sk1Pb1VCYzJXNjloLVZ5WmZqUQ?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcUlPUzlqMXVIeldBRVdicUxOLVRrVWpIWFRGMVdUS0s2RE5WRzg5N2pOaG9HRWVucTBxRGNyN3BXY0JrX05oS1ZfTGJ4UWhZYzlMaGJMXzVwM2xadXpETVdjOTFXQW9RRnJXZDdOQndVUE90aUh5YmIxdTJmcTVFQ2NB?oc=5
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603160250479UF
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316022052JtR
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260316013532JZg
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxNekRxMzNpNEdXdXZMQWQwcFA5Ukt5Qlp0Q2ZrTWRZVGtQdHBWaUZwdE5CSzl5Y1Rkb1BtWGVJT3FfeklwTm45MlV3Nk9CTHVoV1JqMndtd1ZuZUgtaUxsTlgwMk1Hc19uZkx2dXlsRUx6ZjZUNF9aNUFscnc3S2V1c3hoSm9PUmc1TUJpTkc5SHFIeldONEg2QWlsamJ1TklsTVpSZm1Bc3Z4Y0R6RE1kanJBcmtvR3ItLWJFNVZR0gG-AUFVX3lxTE53c0htMGNhcldNaGQ5Rm5rVUhFS1V1OFU0XzFqYTFIZmdpcTR3UmtSQm1yNnl2aGVxT2Q1bF9kaHNkNEY3cUt4dERnMTFIZ0ExZ1IycW9pY05FT0s0bUN3eFJqcEF2QUhkUU5vQmZHeXdqOXRNWEhPQ2lkWUlEQWZsdDN1NFpWNzBDZnA4NHpHU3ozSDd
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101896-war-update-49-combat-clashes-since-morning-three-sectors-see-fiercest-fighting.html
2026-03-15
2026-03-15
进展要点
- 伊朗报复行动可能扩大冲突至阿联酋等地区国家。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致全球石油供应危机，影响20%的石油运输。
- 俄乌战争波及黑海能源运输，袭击频发威胁油轮安全。
- 美国增兵中东可能引发更广泛军事对抗。
- 土耳其监控地区冲突，警告挑衅可能增加紧张。
- 以色列针对伊朗安全部队的行动或煽动内部动荡，加剧不稳定。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 运输中断 / 避险资产需求上升
地缘政治紧张 / 风险情绪恶化 / 股市下跌和债券收益率波动
中国政策稳定 / 区域增长预期 / 亚洲资产相对韧性
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Sky News / The New York Times / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTFA5TGhOa20zcEI5ZVlpWFJuZmVtWVYwbWk3TlpiUVZvMFJiSmhQX1NLdHl2UHBBU3VFc29sUGRRU05ZZ0F2SE5udHNUT19TdW85d1BILU5helJoNElpMUVBZlQ4bzE0RFMxVXlOY2NBamh4a01ac0RBZ0FCRQ?oc=5
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOTDB3elIzT25OVk8wQnFtMktXWW01QjFSWkNoS2JWZmlrRTE4c1djdFotRUlJWC1wbFRDM0pqMURMSk1SZGdZMjZrX0ozTE82SUFzZ2tjWHZVdm9qUUVMWUhfUVJSd2x5VGMwQ3NkM1dzdjcyel82WWlUamNIajdsdHpsQXZoZDd0UGluX0dLTQ?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVjZuR25oazhiV0ZmTkVXZVVLTGpUQWxpSWEzLWV6c0wxSlRZZHZYSVFvdjNTZk5LT2I4LTdPZ0lpNndSYUpRYUg0Rm1UYUVXSjEwZHJOb0RuU0FGaGtPLUJyb3cxQ3ZCVldPdEQ1dlZfWnlTdkJROEoxMk9YMVNudmJkX084VjhISWJ0cm50V3RUb3Iwa0ZDTzAzYU9HZzI2NGFMbXdR?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQVlQxTy1qRU0zZy1ZMlVQaExCcGNiamVEaWhudXBHR0dxREZ5VDlPUkRqNFdtME5NYnNqNGtmZlhmdUlhd3ZRX2puU2dXZUtOemFLaHVxUmJRSE5JVjhHdVNZMFZUbXRqOU9HSENmd09NMVJMZHEzTVZLclBMd2ExSlo5VDFBN1BLWXNITERKeTlGRGhWVjJRcFptWThFQk5uQUh5c21lbFJzbHJiMURrbzd6LXBOUQ?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/15/iran-war-live-trump-urges-world-to-keep-hormuz-strait-open?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-15/10586979.shtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNeDhPbEdMMktxYWRDQXFlR3BrVU9uMWR4SlNjNnNZY016TGJ0bmo1OVQ3SWpDTVdVaVplX0c0UGtINjF4Q3JlVUpjMTVwY0VZcTFqWE1STkZCUTJRUjBXdWpVd2xnMWdNcnhpeVk5ejNtNGR3bXQtZ2xqdHVyZGd3WlFaRE9vNFJUbWlxY21fazEtbTRNbEx4dktlbXlsbmlmUXRRNlItODJFSXpqYkpiMW1fRQ?oc=5
- [8] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101708-war-update-117-clashes-on-front-lines-as-russia-launches-68-airstrikes.html
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/five-killed-in-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall-amid-middle-east-conflict-13519726
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/us-israeli-strike-kills-15-at-isfahan-factory-iranian-media-says?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9MSHk4Wi0tRXM0VHh6c1Myc0NJakpvUnl5VllrbmtYcGM4R3JaUDVWNW9TdnVDWjlFMGRvXzlHanpiYlctTExOWnZHejBWTGp6dUJoRGpVQWpDYWNfZnVIZW1fZ01jSHN1Tm5wc0IyQWFQZFVNSXlhaA?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE4yNGQ0WUtDZ1UyalZ5eHdlQUhULW15STloeWVmYzhoWXJ3ZzIzOHlEaHhXZlNkV0c4TGZLcmxhNHJEVnF0WnUtX1Z4Vzk2NmZpMzcwNTFkY2ZhMXF4?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMNIBuAFBVV95cUxQRVFZU2ZINmRNeHFnWGx0aTVhZGdmNi1iYjN2RHVJWllXMEJURl9KbU9kQ01SYzh4TzRGNmZrRkhyLU9tYU5lYm14eEZfWkZTb21uRUFTNEZqdUYzM0Z6TVUya3JUbk1wdXFhcWRpclNiVFFMRTI4YnpGNkVma1ZjSWh3MnF2cE8xVDJCZ0VHbjRLZ1Q3WU03OTl2QjlKcm1
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/turkey-on-alert-as-iran-conflict-escalates-warns-against-provocations?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/3/14/israel-targeting-irans-security-forces-may-aim-to-encourage?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/trump-says-many-countries-will-send-warships-to-hormuz-amid-iran-blockade?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/us/politics/rubio-trump-iran-war.html
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/business/energy-environment/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-middle-east.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxORy1RZkVhX0NxZmRSZURTRHhKb3ZNZTVTeGwxeF80TGRQME5CUjV1QUl2VGN3ZDRyZzVBYU9EN3REakRockVuOU9pdHFBazJkYlhkYlZreUlJTnF2UVozdExpdGEyOGN1RlNFaG5TMFdmY0R3eDM2UGhNQ2l0M1MtaTcxdjNvMGtwMDA4Z1NMTTg4S24tU056dmpibVUzVFRSTnhRUVY0S3Q0V1BpV1l5NG0zMA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxOT1BlRjRRZVpteFFkc3l6MzBORl9aNXp6NlZINWNGdmtucmx4STAwc01qRXBrcXpNY0d1Y05TZ3hzUkpXYk9YYnlkZWw5X3lad3VVQzVzam5XVFFuYUlTR2dYVDZJcDl3SEx1dnYyLU93VVlYV0pmZmFQOU5TQ0pGWlFyXzRabFltSjkxY3hKS2dxNTlYd1pBS2s2ZTlSc3NUYjFmOWUwV3hlY1duUTlySVBoY25zeDJTRWJiaE5xa3c5M0VaT1JCZVNscHBlOU4wS0NTQw?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxOSHlZVXQ2V3h4UVlRaVg2bDJaNmZiWHktTVFkQXNCU0Z3V3ZZQTlvSUxZaExEa1Bfdy04MDZCQjdoSEl3ZVd1Z1dOYmlNN3hUNWdRQlFUSkIwLTY3UWp5ejdrLURMa01qRndiMlFVLWdUREloUkoyd1JnQnZLRXVHaGU4bVRKVUhzVTdCVlo5RkhRcHdPQmp6a0NnSHJ1OWdNck44SS1NNU9zUzJIMVdKVWVkSjZnZW9OanM5MHAxU2xQdmlDdDlR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQempZYXZOZXBHVzRTMENFaF9ZTUJwaG44NHU4anE0TUh0UW5IaS1nMDNmTmNaZUdsX0VZT3ZHS05tNjBQYi1GR2JCeDlGbGU5QzQtSnY3MEFNcmVfRzR1djZteTBpNmd6SHo0d0lRN2ljRDhLSGZfZXRETHNLLUpSTDZZNGEwbUZ2NndkNUFzcmxCdDlMWmtKbFRBQTRtMGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTkNTemktVnR6SkF6LTFXTGEyWTlaWTN2clRXakVEWmlvay1KUHVOcGU2M0x3bFRqSVNsNHVxV1J4TXFCcGNuN2tKeWI3U253aEpYRVktV3EtOGF1cXhyUFdHVnNlTmpadFdaLXcyOGZkOUtRZU9VM0NHaW9WMGpmQ3dUSmZhUG5RMzBWbjJqSjZuNVVYX3R4MUdXemluS2tUX0JqUFY?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/israel-bombs-basij-checkpoints-in-tehran-as-us-iran-trade-fire-and-jabs?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-14/10586968.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTE14aFhiZ1B2ZEZmNHdHRW5OZjI1V1g4MWdQb3Ftb0UwY0NoaWRXUjczaW4tYXF0OU9IWG9EZ0x3WTNIRVA4ekVwSVRWUnA3MUc0M215Z0J2QTlmRVZndjA5MHdXUVVQdzQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/14/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-be-reopened-to-us-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/03-14/10586955.shtml
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634983-greek-flagged-oil-tanker-attacked-black-sea-russian-coast/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOV09TTXY0cTVIanNiSDFDeHlVMEw0a1BXV0lxUTliR281WmxUV1lZOGpOY0Fuc0ZDek9KSDdrZ3U5a2lFbW1Dc3NBX1VDS2YwM2JlTThJbldjUUh6XzlVbmVBNDJaSVhrRU5tT2xVQjRKVUtlZzlkd0Nqd2tSeUtpX1lld2xQQ0NwQW5NVkpvSTVhYkRlRlFXcmxB?oc=5
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-emergencies/4101625-iran-drone-attack-causes-fire-at-uae-oil-hub-fujairah-port-halts-loading-bloomberg.html
2026-03-14
2026-03-14
进展要点
- 美伊战争扩大至石油设施和关键航道，可能引发全球能源危机。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭或部分中断，影响全球约20%石油运输，推高油价。
- 伊朗报复性攻击扩大至区域盟友如土耳其或阿联酋，导致冲突蔓延。
- 俄罗斯介入调解失败，可能加剧美俄对抗，影响全球能源市场。
- 北约成员国土耳其遭伊朗导弹威胁，可能触发集体防御条款，升级冲突。
- 中东不稳定引发外籍人士撤离和资本外流，冲击区域经济如迪拜。
- 美国增兵中东可能导致长期军事卷入，增加财政和地缘政治负担。
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
中东地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 资产价格波动
美国增兵和军事行动 / 区域不稳定扩大 / 全球风险规避 / 股市下跌和债券上涨
石油供应冲击 / 央行政策调整 / 利率和汇率波动 / 全球市场溢出效应
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Bank of Canada Press / Ukrinform / Google News - World / RT News / France 24 - France News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/14/iran-war-live-pentagon-vows-to-ramp-up-us-military-campaign-against-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081707PPX
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260314083318PVl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314081016HKz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603140004322cj
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/13/iranian-missile-strike-in-central-israel-sets-building-ablaze?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-enters-day-14-as-conflict-completes-two-weeks-what-we-know-so-far-tehran-explosions-israel-strikes-us-aircraft-crash/articleshow/129550155.cms
- [8] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2026-03-18
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101359-iran-launches-missile-strike-on-central-israel.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTFBuOXJsam9kY21GZDVSeFAydmwtZEtQaVRKUEdNZzR2TE1mQ0VPTEhKZUdNRC1BVEJVTF92NGp3QTJqajRmTkdJLVliVE53TDdPeXhCVF9Vc21VOUFaNVJBLXU3aGJlVWROaE5icEtBQ2FWZnpNWmcxdE5RSTE0Q0E?oc=5
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260314090641MLm
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNeUJTQ1VSNHVHVmZNZndxaWtfLU5ySEN4S1FrRjF1MTF5SnVZU1M5bVliRy1UNUZ0SmZaemNucEk5a3dFUUg2UXd6VmRZZVlKNE0yZGFLQlpjNDJQRm0tb1pHT0Y3QnRNR1JLdTYxMnBFd25NbXNWR3NjeEVHcTN5cUpTQnU?oc=5
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/634898-us-iran-israel-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE9KdXFiNE5BTzBZSlNYb1YyaEdqZTFLMFNiNFNCbHdGc3dMdzZSMldrMXA2ZjRWZnBuWm5JWDkyOXFzalZtWkFsTmRGcHlabVg0QlJvMDlodGFrYURCSWFxM3RyVEM1Qko1Z2ZSUklDUC1qOFAxRHFwdw?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQOTd5a0lmYXlEQVNOS0ZsRW5MZHItQ3pMSE4xcVpEa3VnamFHbUU0Wi1uMmlWcFJvVHo1R1dqMTBwc2VwR1FXU3E1d21ydi1KVFM5dmFBOU5SREpTYlhDV1VBbTFQaU96WlctVVBpWExsTm1Qa2RWZWNpbzU0NHdES0xTOVlWYklGODZNYkFmWHRQT2ZTNHFNQjVpMnNmaFA0b1JOTVZjUlBEWms5akhjcktJS0ZMRjlDdXo5WlVqRGVFQmhWNm8wY3VJd01lYlhIUUE?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPQWFDRVFIYmlJUWJ4c1VJY1VLS0dEYWF5X3djSXpyNG1jcXJfUWJ5U3hRbzNDMDVkajhyUElRMlJ5OUJiS2I4V2dLUlRYT2l0MkhQaGVTTURPQV8yaWlhcnRELTVlU0FNcU9oSTBYRC1WLTJmOTg0aEFsTUtwTUd4S0VsajliWnNlbFBBaHlqUlpNNkVYVmVuQWlBMXJrWmVZYjFEVFNuQjQwYXhWN1UyVmNrMA?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOUlR4U3FSeEZEZHV0T0lEODh6WmRxaHpNbEdVajRodjdkT2xtS3lKSUo2QTVidjhkb3FyN2JtTjl3ZmtLejJBTVc4S2RBN3h1VlNDNEZsWXJVdHlJUWk5SjhVSUhjcWNacFRFOTM1cEpQcVZjamszelR3enR4MEVNMmFCNFNKN3pQcmRFMUM0akx3XzNCN215dG14ZXhIQQ?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwJBVV95cUxPbWcyZUo1VDViaVM5WF9pcWJkY1lZWHVnRVB5cmlFQUZaNkdBbG1tQWRSMDUxRzRVbXlNTXJuc0YzalpkemFWdm9mai1TSFIxalhyUjcwSXdxS0J0ek9Lb1h4NE1lT2RKWkdJRHQtQmZVRTRweFZxSVVVa2RmOGJWTThOdGNyeTVoQUNVeFZjY182aTM5Y1c2NVBEVVhNXzQ1bndjcm00ZTVoMklhZ1Z3azRMYTRWR291Ri1LeUZNdW5LZzFSV25kTW9EMndoZkdkX3QxX0RLa1hBUUZOa0dldzRiakE5U2NGMVoyUVJlM2ptcnBZWHVEYnFwSEd5TG5wQzNxWmdQWmpVUzR5VnVnbWswUWczUEE?oc=5
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/politique/20260312-troisi%C3%A8me-jour-de-guerre-en-iran-quels-buts-de-guerre-pour-trump
- [20] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/eskalation-in-nahost-iran-nimmt-den-oelhandel-in-den-wuergegriff-a-b1f06920-cb9d-44fe-90c2-1f4c53fba5a0
- [21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260314000200315
- [22] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-us-would-escort-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-if-needed-fox-news-interview/article70739248.ece
- [23] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/28-indian-vessels-with-lng-lpg-and-crude-stranded-near-hormuz/article70738142.ece
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-offers-up-to-10m-for-info-on-mojtaba-khamenei-and-other-key-iran-leaders-offers-relocation/articleshow/129562970.cms
- [25] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedia/press-conference-policy-rate-announcement-march-2026
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/us-eases-oil-sanctions-at-an-ideal-time-for-russia/a-76349758?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [27] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-ramping-up-strikes-in-coming-days/live-76340941?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/634859-dubai-finished-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQU0JHaTJ3YTF3Qzc1Vmp2VU45bnRoRDAyMlhodmhuY2pORXlGNm5LZGxpM0w1Rk5UUW1faDFHU2NCd1UwOHI4QmhudHd1MFJhUEt0QW1mc3R0N1BJajN2Q0x4SDA0bTUwZWNIcllYSHdBeFlZaExfSl9mWEhqX2NBcmtEczRCd0VK?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPT3VuT1JwVDB3WU5LVzM5ckJsQnRJQ3BBN3JWc0hQQ2tXdnJtZXFHYjZ5SWdBS2lWNXNXM0o2VmV4d3FRZHVHQzNRZ3BDUnVuMWY0dDZlb2VZRDA2NldJQVY1cUlzWjd4Zll6UVQ3WUo3RGJRNEZWTmF5NEJfclVpS1VMUzJkTEZ6RVMxVTd0OA?oc=5
2026-03-13
2026-03-13
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁的持续性与有效性：若长期封锁，将引发全球性能源危机。
- 美伊军事误判风险：伊朗打击美军基地后，美军升级报复的可能性。
- 冲突外溢至整个波斯湾地区：伊朗呼吁邻国关闭美军基地，可能激化地区国家矛盾。
- 俄乌冲突同步升级：战线活动加剧，增加欧洲安全的不确定性。
- 也门胡塞武装等地区代理人可能趁乱扩大袭击范围。
- 网络战与关键基础设施攻击成为潜在升级领域。
关联路径
伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡 / 全球石油贸易流量骤降 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策收紧预期强化 / 风险资产估值承压
美伊军事对抗升级 / 区域全面战争风险溢价上升 / 资金逃离股市等风险资产 / 涌入美元、美债、黄金 / 美元走强，金价上涨
油价暴涨 / 企业成本（尤其是运输、制造业）上升 & 消费者购买力下降 / 企业盈利预期下调 & 经济增长预期放缓 / 股市盈利与估值双杀
地缘政治不确定性持续 / 全球资本开支与贸易活动趋于谨慎 / 全球经济增长前景蒙阴 / 周期性资产表现落后
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-13/10586035.shtml
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260312-guerre-au-moyen-orient-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-bloque-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260312-war-in-the-middle-east-explosions-heard-overnight-in-tehran
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAJBVV95cUxOQkFHVlYxNWxWZEFDYU5vU294Y2FHZ182ejhLcDlnWDFlZFFVNW5EcHotTmtLZzVrU2lBMDRvWUxkU1R3dnNqREg5WnNVUGdfZXctUW9Rd3p2ek1jY2xNMVlIMTBmdmZPdHB3TjJua2loZnExQm95cl9WS1JtWEVadGxGZ2ZXLXRMb011Y2o2V1Jxbi1ROXdpZW9qRU9Ja0p0UHpJQnpMWTlxRVcyNm1Rc1NwSDVzcnVScXEwbEJUbHJXUk1yazBWZmpFbVlzOU9DNUFfVURPY2lsRkFYUHlwY0FWODJjajd2ZklkV0ZwY1hxQWVsbWo0VzhSSjVGUkNGUFBiYWNKWmxVNTFjYm5Ma0h6RXI?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOeFgzZmV4V0FqeHVnMnZxS2VSbGN4MUxqdFpud0haREV2OVBnUFcyZW0zQWJrU2lEQS1KSTFLRGNESWNQLW9QSnlWWVZBWGNGQS1Na0RDM09vZ3VFeE5ncm9ZSXVaVFMybk1nNjlRdUNNV19fd1FUYm1iV1pKaS11NFBsZmxxel84dXpjdmYtckNkWWNRaUVUX1lyQUJuZVFwTHR5YUh5ekx5WnpiNVNONXB3MlBvZ0RpSDQxb9IBwgFBVV95cUxQaV91WmNNSHR2MWljUngtRThOR1Mtb0lnSVZXMkViYUhFUHU1ejFzU2prMi1IdHYxWVVua2hEc0tyLWpGS1l5VWNubFlsanhBaUlkbUs2aF93eGk5Wjc5ZzVZQmhqeDNNMVlPZWJueW44b1g5aFZfSjZBcGRqTzd3Z1lkQ3lqcldMTFNoMGdkM2tFaEphb0x
- [6] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4100837-israel-claims-to-have-attacked-nuclear-facility-in-iran.html
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/06fbe756e8fa4e52a455987d905ec2e2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1VNnZxUmVhdk1rRkx3ejd4U01FaHFsMnV2ek9aVms3U2haNU9HTUpwXzM4dk5QbFFZaW1SN0JoOWtmWHRXT1doalh1bWdhckVDLUpQSWNpRnZOdw?oc=5
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4101001-war-update-122-clashes-along-frontline-russian-attacks-intensify-in-huliaipole-and-kostiantynivka-sectors.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNS05TU1p3Rk5HVzVHMVNrUzJVb2ZwRjVZQjlMU3lLNENuYUwwY05ZQWV0OHhZNVE2Q0FPQVgwV2tucDBGMXNsclFsOWVtRU9sOElwSUxtRkdtUElENGw5SW9QSUdZYzREZXViVEIzbWdfRUFwdG1FNGRKSnk5QUpWNHhtaG5xaTRuZUJLdlIzR3pHWldyeXI5aEpwQU5Jd0XSAaQBQVVfeXFMTTNLVExKRjhKY2sydWM4a1dPQThsVWhPZkhfXzVNRFFoYnRHeDh1VFlrUEFlUHc2dXhqX1FwN0JDdGFIQUVnWEJCVENFOTJaWXNEcmlsLTVlWGhSX2I2akRhVmZOV2lfdEgwZGtzc1BHck9FY3c5Qm9JOVpjQnlPYVBMcUZMOFFXckF6OWZpRWNWSlFEZzBPeHU3eHRvMUV5RFZjcm8?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNb1B4UWQ0RjBPTEVDZkZDbXZvMTNtRWFNYUFWT2pPYlQ0NTlZSFRXZElDNm1CdEFrN0g5RVJGQXZYY0Y3SXozU0Y0WlRTVlFSaDVfNldjNVhBQnl0M3RNT3p1aEpNd2xTZTBmdW9wQjdSWlh5X2hLVmZBSVNHTmFRQmw2dHNqbjUyWkdqNVpNZjc3VDd3XzdPV0M2bUpOMG9YUnREeHRxcGlKa0pxb3RTdDg3RHVZNUFTdWfSAb8BQVVfeXFMTTh5ZFlmMFhYNlFOQk5MM1pZbW8xU3kzYk9ZYWVBcEJ3dHE4cm1xeHV6VEtZSWRFSGhXdHJlX2NjZG5lQUFOYXllaXZXb0VJSUFuczhaREg1OFJLMHRhT0lWenc4enR1MWxEWWJ0OGhtLVlvUW4xQTJac3QzNl9QQURyVDQzaWNXdnFCMk1VNDJqbWE2QU9EdG1
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/f6a9912e7ba541df91412c5b34d9e1e4/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/12/fuel-shortages-bring-queues-protests-around-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/netanyahu-says-israel-stronger-than-ever-in-first-speech-since-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPSFBSakVBQjhjZHBxX3lUTnM2YjVCMHNaZVlrU3d5ckdWcnAtei1DWUlQWDY4NDEzNURCeXNDQnFzcW93OVRyRjM4ZS0tSjZfaWpCWDVyV21XVXJORDhHRlRtVHRNMzBiYXJoemhBUU5nRk8tSkZuVHJhTGhiZXJBcEpNcktjSDFBWEJZa1dDMmdsci02dW9XZktXblFCdjNMT0M4T0w5S3BMY1hxbWhYRDBYZW4?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxQOVI1bEFyQXhWeUVCR2pqYk00RGt0OXV0UjJHSTNHa2lJTzFhZjE4RmRBaUlnWjNjQWp1WUYxcW92LUZOaHpJUVpMemxNM3NRT2lWN0JXSkYtN0dtTFZxVDFkWDVjekJyS3F4eXBEX1o3UFpIWGk0MkhEUlNBYmswbXZTR0k4Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260313/108a1631b7364fe08ac49dd751650ccc/c.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10586021.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/03-12/10586020.shtml
- [20] https://news.sky.com/story/us-navy-to-escort-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-treasury-secretary-tells-sky-news-13518742
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQR1BzbW95SnlZUl9qRUNfbVh3WngxcHNKQWVhMGNESTEtbXBBWDJQaVpvZ19tRVNia0ZXRjBoSHY5aHF0RjAwVDdYeXFKcG5vYzFWekFwNVdDcExjZmRYNkZSRTItb0dKd05kcEhNRjFRSDdTY3MxVl91cWRVckd0a0hJTQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/12/how-will-the-war-on-iran-impact-the-us-economy?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/12/does-president-trump-have-an-exit-strategy-for-the-war-with-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5pN2RpbnBXSTZWX1V5NlFLODl1dWpfS21aNFVMMEs2MVFyZ2N3d0ZTRmhLQ3BaQkEyX0NXNWQxN19ZSEFsZk5IR2NYTEV2RVlsdDdKZERwbnluZ2ZBZFlhb1ZRVXh5Y3dZQTlwUlZReGRZZUhsQk0tbnlXMNIBgAFBVV95cUxQc0F2d2tZVUJHVW9IWFNqTnE1TkN6OEdHMU9xY2hvOWMyeVJPWERNd2lkVW9UcWR0T1ZZWFpJcXN6MkNIRDBCNm5wUzBqS3hTaVZGbVdsMnR1dHQyVGQxSElOcTQ5VUc0YjNULUxDc1FaWDFqdHc1Z3hyRUR2ZXdIUg?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxQTVl2b3NaY3JkSVItLXZPYlh0S3QtVGZXNDBHenE2T2E3RExlcVM4VVBvbjVFeTdEYkxxR09xMkhLQ21PbXAxOTVHVFN6UWVJeVZRVEwxa0loNEZfcHNmb3k2TkZuV3o4REdISTlwZDhpYjNHVVZKaFFJLW1rRWl2RWNENndKSmlYWE1ndWpMNWI0RkU?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4100977-war-enters-new-stage-as-russia-accelerates-creation-of-drone-units-syrskyi.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/iran-vows-to-make-trump-pay-for-grave-miscalculation-if-us-escalates-war?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/12/aje-onl-irn_tuesdayupdates_av_v2-100326?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.iris-france.org/a-limage-du-monde-un-moyen-orient-de-plus-en-plus-sombre
- [30] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook
2026-03-12
2026-03-12
进展要点
- 霍尔木兹海峡事实性封锁，全球石油运输通道受阻，可能引发供应链危机。
- 伊朗与美以冲突外溢至周边国家，如黎巴嫩伤亡增加，地区动荡加剧。
- 美军基地成为伊朗打击目标，中东国家安全依赖受质疑，可能推动战略自主化。
- 贸易战风险上升，特朗普政府新调查可能针对中国和欧盟，引发全球贸易紧张。
- 欧洲能源供应困境加深，与亚洲竞争稀缺油气资源，俄罗斯从中获利。
- 冲突导致国际法律规范侵蚀，美国和以色列更多以实力逻辑行动，增加不确定性。
- 真主党等非国家行为体参与冲突，扩大代理人战争范围。
- 全球航空网络和贸易体系受冲击，外溢效应传导至多国经济。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断 / 全球石油供应减少 / 油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升 / 央行政策收紧 / 风险资产下跌
伊朗威胁及袭击 / 石油供应风险 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 股市波动加剧
全球石油储备释放 / 供应增加 / 油价下行压力 / 通胀预期缓和 / 风险情绪部分修复 / equities 反弹可能
贸易调查升级 / 关税风险上升 / 全球贸易放缓 / 经济增长担忧 / 避险资产需求 / FX 市场波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / RT News / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Prime Minister of Canada - News / Ukrinform
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/634559-us-israel-iran-war-updates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/634546-war-on-iran-could-remake-world/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFByQ3hWa01uVlpZWmtUSU82S1J2UTViaXhJcVdhRVdDb1FfYWkxWFBtbkh5d3hnTVprc0JmRkM1TzI2NUJhbllqSDRmVnRQMUE1UzZ1Z2EwMmM0cTl0blFpc19sWTNtQXM?oc=5
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxPUy1FZ0pyVHZBZEdvcjJLR2JWN20ycFg2LWF0RzNjbWtvLUplYjN0Ry1ZMFRmUi1FeEwwT0hmSXJ3SGVsMDVVUzl5MzRpOWh2bTJTbzZ0aDdaVU9SN0hUR0tRRUhPV1Rmdk5Pbjg0NGV3ekVodi1ZV05QaFM5VjdHcUEyZ3NvUUM0cGtINlprbWJQWWp6R1BVMTQ5NDR2eEhpYTQ1SURPQ2h2ZHNsR0Nnbld3?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNWkJYckV1U051V0J0RXlsdVNIdDJBVkZROGp6aUstdWk3UFA4MEZGOTRqeVF5ZkZYZTJvaF95RWlzQTQzT3BYOTZ2LVBCN2VhemM1elpKOFhrVEJLVnFXN0VsaTZMV0k3WTFkRWlHNjVqWEgyVkI0Z0J2bm9wYmg3cXBRaUp3OWZzeTdCVG9SYjdPWS1PNUNLQW8tNjNJV1nSAaQBQVVfeXFMT2VTOHplSUtXMzZtRUxIVE1tczJVVUw4VUI5aUNXZngzdnR0Q1dERkpvNGM0d3FyQm00N3V3WGh4SEI3UC1qWHExeDhrX2JZNk54UC1jZ0w4TFdoQ2NJcDg1bHdGQXJRTjVWcWNYamxodHNKZTdpODlQdlA4Z3h1QW5OaFplMDN4d1lDa2tWbnFxalNXQkJneFBhN0FTV2dLR2xoZXo?oc=5
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/11/irans-irgc-says-not-one-litre-of-oil-will-get-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/442a0fe4bc42480281d4d0bc28f4c6c2/c.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxNMmZrdGVSVzRwWlUyNWh1eXd4dGRaclJ3OGdxbGNPTkVUSFpUNTE2UFlpV24wWnI2NkpfNjJHc2t1TUdyMmNZbHAwT1BmSzdaMDRYRTlvYzlPeFVsNUdHNklRV0tnNWxQdElwblc2T1c4MTJUdzNVa2dlYnlVeUdKeU91bC1qQzU2QnJOV2pzM1NJQWFrTEZhcnh1cjFka1lK?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-12/10585394.shtml
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/massive-fires-on-two-oil-tankers-after-attack-in-iraqi-waters?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNWXlWY3F2U0ZWSHFVbnZneDlSeGJvS2J4bU54OEFLeElaUjZGYm5YQ2h2N0RnQnQ2amhpRVU0STRYUS1sVGhlMXBMa2JLeDBRUWlhRFZlYU5yNHlEazU3T3dIV2RXMFJWMXgza3JXcTRlcjdKWTMxdHJOTzNLbVUwdDhES3pPU3hKN3NHY2dIN2pia05CMEE?oc=5
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/2be5a84701ad4b978bff009439d40bce/c.html
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260311/5efec14abc7b4d53998e9199af28ff2b/c.html
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260312/72fd109f77e741cebd3ae5372865e46a/c.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/634541-us-strike-iran-school/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQSUEzMWRHZDMxYWRvemZSdzFWekVpSm9xaW9pcS1vc0l1bVVjQ2pRR0E2eml0dlMxblI5a1FaV1JrQ3VOaUg5Nm95NWo5ODZIYnhvb3BfM0RUamZ4eUVXcnRwRnI5Q3JKaVZ3djNlMkZhSS1wSHgyUEJ2ZUItanVYYXlQRkpvRmd5eDNOQVZObzFnaEVVZlRBaTBiMlQ0X0RTVHpfbUFGZFNpVFNONjgyWnQ5amRVYkXSAbwBQVVfeXFMUHJDNk96bmoxMDE5NnZsaGVjTDZaUXF1cXpYSmVURUYwcmIxOGZLRzNtVDgzUk0xd0xNU2pIcUFiZ0ZvS3QzZXBTNUxlRHZKTFllNlFDckpBQ3dyb21BSU5rSjk1bUM3T1FNVG82UHBzdWhYTjFhSlZHLVhWUkVXQU4zTFpRek1rcjdPVDhERnJkbWUzN3M2WHQ2a1E
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQR2VYVTZXdTZ1bG9sOUJGMDlobXBSb1pBU05pdW1wZTdJZllYMm5yNUNKY0Q1b1I5a014WFNDdHF2RGJzNTVQTEg0XzM0TGJaYnlRdmZTT2dzd0dNNXVTdmFjelJOMm9KQldUaEJINTFRTUx0NnIwdVp6aHlFbVFsQm1Hc3d0Yk1LTlhxWW1mWQ?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQaVpsanBCMzd1VkU1WWFkTkk5Rk9zQWdLMEJkQmZsNGRnU3Q5VTJ3SXZHSjlBNXhTNWZCV2o5Zm1SMDVtb3NFNDAxZ2dGM3ZQbkRkV3IyR19GcDlJdkg4aWdYS0U4VkJ1OTFJeEl4cFBhNUNuLTNDMFFDSW5pT2xaS2RGeFdoUjd2eEdyekR3?oc=5
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/11/why-does-the-iran-war-pose-more-dilemmas-for-europe?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQQWEzSjZuZFlqQzZOX2M1bFB2ZTl5cjA3SU55QVJaSXRxU1dVUnhXaXJ5N1podkg5LXRBSU5hdnJadEx1RFMycEpCOG9JcXYwSkdWVE1La05iM21ONnVtWDd5Tk9MTGVlSzlzUnJ2alZsMWNOUzB3S2QzX0E1ZUgwZWI5MFB2M1RtNnEwN1NZVFRKa0xHYks4blNn?oc=5
- [22] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2026/03/11/prime-minister-carney-participates-virtual-g7-leaders-meeting-situation
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tc0pNV3hRZ185TFJLNlQ2SkF1NGExb1NkdTlxYzRldDJXMkdHeGVjT2t6UHFuWE5fejBOS2wtVEtoQXNLM3RFV0E0SUZGQ0NhbDF2dVQ2bnFNSUZURnZmNnN4OVVGdmQ0S1ZlbjNQOTVFdHNuam93SElscThMbVk?oc=5
- [24] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260312/8a27c89d85d94d73afa65276ee67cfd5/c.html
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxORzRjNjhXOFFPSTRtcktYdk1vVmhWdjV2UFd3X0dPeVhLMzVZTnNRRWduQjRYOENnbmhUbGVsa2JyUzVXOGVQMms1dU9sQ1F3MlEyMzZ5b0pzYXdUWmhOLVJkUV9KaF83NmpzSUlYV245ejFlVDBvOG55VXNIcGljdXJ1cHVaTXNZVHZod0Q4bk9VWng2ZUxIX3RobGxRZ0VfSjROUURwcmZycEhjengwODN3?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOY1VEblp3ZlhTcjBpR1NKU1NvR0hzeklVbEt4WmtSOHpobW56QWR4SFJ4a3ZUeE41bzRJVnBicWJnUm1DNmFNMzc3QWNTRTVjcDNIc1V6MkxEdjAxa05TMXJqbUVDMHZLTVR6MkZlcGY3UHJ4dG9VRzJoVDVGLUN4Y0pQNjlqbTBsTXZhWUtncHJxZi01SGVZelowUEZaaDJqV2xB?oc=5
- [27] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4100584-record-400-million-barrels-iea-releases-emergency-oil-reserves.html
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/11/whats-left-in-iran-could-be-taken-out-in-an-hour-says-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.dw.com/de/hohe-spritpreise-wegen-iran-krieg-öl-reserve-wird-angezapft/a-76306889?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNGFGS0YxQnVyaVhYNGZ0ejQwZmo4YUNnc1NycHdjdGt3WlE1dkNzNXZNY1hXNnZzQjZ4VGkyQU1SbXdHZGQ5Rk1laExkbGVjeXdTLV9Dc0NjMWtsM09oT09oeElQUm9DS0ZXSUtqS1lMRDQySjNiQ2JuNFEtX1BTaERGTGg5TXMxRkpiNlh3Q3lGY2ZQci1fZ2JpOEtjM3NlSmpibzBYc1ZmbXZuNEhacWlHdkpZUDJZcmZpVlVaNHhLYU5BVm1BTlBR?oc=5
2026-03-11
2026-03-11
进展要点
- 伊朗-以色列冲突持续升级，可能扩散至整个中东地区，引发更广泛战争。
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险，威胁全球约20%石油运输，加剧能源危机。
- 俄罗斯无人机多次入侵波罗的海国家领空，东欧紧张局势升温。
- 欧盟在伊朗问题上立场分裂，影响外交政策协调和地区稳定。
- 美国国内政治压力因士兵伤亡增加，可能影响军事战略和选举动态。
- 伊朗威胁封锁石油出口，若实施将直接冲击全球供应链和通胀。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 避险需求 / 黄金 / 美元上涨
石油供应风险 / 油价波动 / 通胀压力
地缘不确定性 / 增长担忧 / 股市下跌
通胀上升 / 央行加息 / 货币走强
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxNWE1pdjF6NTVIOEF4aHpWS2QwZ3hfR0hqbWNiXy05Q0oyMG9oYkZRSEhRR09ueDVWblB3djJZNVk4VV9qT1hQSWFiRWZva2tJVzVabzYtTkZYQ2dVQkJKcDNfd3VPbmU2cnF0dXcwRVVEaFI2bDJFMUpiVmRnS2dIRF9Ea2p3dnJNMUZKYXZYMmY2Slk1dFdJemcwbUE1WXQwSVFvWVQ3M0VTY1FwZ2d3UkVPS3czd9IBuwFBVV95cUxOTUJHdnZHdTJZTUFvOEFPNGNSRnJtODhuUWNXXzBtNmR3TmQyX1dHbVN1bGl5NnZGSWpjLWlUWmtreWNJZDhRMzlJYmhWLWRJT3RMRWVhRE1uUXhXWEllYlBjZ3hPS2RNYVdaS3VwRlI0cXFmeTMtS3JySEZUeExQV1pISGtEbC1tcFotek8tdFFNaEN5WGlPZ2xFOVA
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNUkdiTFNjZENxQ1Z4bHZQb1FfeG1kYjZFblhPdVExeDQ0MjJwN3RYX3ZTRnE1aERiUm9rdzdqZmRWY21nRk03UWNOUVFKYk1tN08weG53UEYzSlZvdkZWRWk4VDdfT3BMbThYb3BWRld3WVRUM21wYWlZc1IxRjVITVQ0QlJnSUlKTmhr?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxOazVDTEpWOThHZHY2dHFZazh0YWhNQW9JMGk4bXVNYWNIVzlTeTA4WlNLLXhYMGRsRHBWMWNBVmtIUkJEVzhjUmFiSU1IVktZSTdLZm5ROV8yNUE1VnVhLUZIWjVid0luT1hmS2MxNnNlY3czT0pMa1VEV05OQ3pqcHhvUkJ5R0ZuZ0dETUZNQkNkZFQ3R29ueDNOVF8wX2ZCYU40UEQ1c1JoUjFIRTd6WUVBWF9iZkNqeXo1ek5QTzZGeVljOUluWW5jOWJnal93S0I00gHYAUFVX3lxTFB5V3dtclAyYms0MlBGbTZnaThKcDNuNmFONmRONjNJeVg1Z1JNVlhwVV9reWJTeS1DcnVKSUpZeDk0eW1FWDYyMGFEQmg4NGtkaFVNV3RlQzNCeUhNVUoxUG1PT0M2S1Q4S0tFRk9ER3hzMlZkVGkxYlQtNmYtSjl
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310232439BDY
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310235751Mhd
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634366-tehran-fuel-sites-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-181914444.html
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE84cUltYlRQSkRGYmo3SnBVNGpaa01XbUJRSUxnOERzSE1pdXBFWFZIV0p0MFpGR1N0T1M1T0RqMU40T0VIR3V5YnEzSXNKakhyVXBueGFWTHJaQQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/10/around-140-us-service-members-wounded-in-iran-war-pentagon-says?traffic_source=rss
- [10] https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0rjyr22ypeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/634413-trumps-call-to-putin/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260311/687b46ac645f4341a6d428a202df8b08/c.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNVVYzT1l4TmlxM2FjazNVc3VLdi1LcURsamVBcmhXWVNYSjltb0NkWFV2UmNxUHlIa3NSMEJ0SGtHem9zSlhkWWNtVTNDMzZVMnV3RjBfZU83Sl9uUldtS29fRGx0Sjk3NGtmWXE5NU85MktNSlMzbmx0ZDlKUzNHWTFDOHBwNFJFVlM0bUpHV1c?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPa2gyZDM2MWVreEVscXdpNTlGLVBONlVvUjU2Z2dJZmxXei1hZDJ3UGItYUVJMjJPbGtXTFBXNGtkRzZOc1gtYy11ZHQwMV9NMDJOOTlZRzJLYXo2b0ZLQ1pQM1J4cFdxUWYySUFabHRacDBkMXloQTJLVWRtZlBHQnhMUzhncG5ULW9vajk0SFJYb0VoamJ4X3VSaVphdUgyV0ZqS09paVU3TzZmS0M4ak1nX2ZCbnfSAbwBQVVfeXFMTWRhZm11VVFPbFBRelZJcWtXekRJb1p6YVdXYy1OS1duY1hIbVBLcHdLMllqY25USG1HdXNialpzMjE2RUFlelA1Z0l6TDhIOXFqVXV4cnJNY0pDM1ZsV0gxcDBRNWcxNjhyRjZhQmp5a2ozczhxODhtMDNuWFFvVFFKRnQzQXhlZk82V056UzFtMEFsdG1BNGpJeFV
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxOVnM1SG5iRE9GdkVoUHdZNGhSOU1FdnhaVlNFd1VPOWFPLXdFQXVIVHR4RjAxWjNmaTcyRkF5alpUT29DQUFQR1gzVVlORFRla0FsSXB0Y2taQTFMak5GdUxTZ0pHenpVVXlpeEpDNkdsY3psdTFqV3NNNVZLcU1EYXdFUmxsVVpfay1nWUhSVGVPSGw4VlQ5ZnJJN3I0Mkljc0ZqdFoyN0lVZl9YbGlEU1VnLVdiSmh6aDllOGViNGNGNU9QQ0VVMkV3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/10/german-chancellor-concerned-us-israel-have-no-exit-plan-for-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.sky.com/story/dark-ships-and-shadow-fleets-8211-what-is-crossing-closed-strait-of-hormuz-13517746
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBreGc4VlV5ZnF6bzJfQlhEMlNwcWVhWVBIenBWNUo4XzZIbTVLT2Y5SHRmbl9uX2wxVmlWN1JpUl95ZWRlWUZqV2VLWFV0NnB1UmYwZGVlOE5wQUIwRXgtYTVaVExZOFNtVHc?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNNE5ELWRWNFp2SnFnWGczUWdHMHo5dVM5U21KczN3LUFibjlqY1c0MUJiNS1yaXVrSkkxSGEyMlRfQjFqY0s0Sk1jQlR5TXh1bk1PZXVId2RTaVlxTXU1a1IwRXk1ZUYwZnBvNThHdGlxeWkyTHZzOERVOTRmZ2UtWnE4djFRN3ROVXVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/634398-eu-bosses-split-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxOMmdaVWhxMjJ4cXBHOTBrVldZQ0NkNS1GNXhRemZRVEZkcU95NDU3V0JjWFZWQ3ZEU09SX3JGd0FjUFFCTklPYXBXaWt6bzFXeTZSbWk0RFJubUhwNC05RERMV1lDOXBlcVBUZ2R0YXhpWFk1a3ljck5ObFRqenQ4aTBiOXV3OHo0Q0lQMjBFZTRFRmZOY0pHV3RZazR0MElYdkhnYVBBWWlfcmJYSnRIdmc2MWV2Q2JKd0tqLUlUcVpnU2hFZE9FaTFoTl9zZzlBTC1UcVp1WmU?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/10/global-airlines-hike-ticket-prices-as-iran-war-sends-costs-soaring?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://cdhowe.org/publication/whats-putting-upward-pressure-on-inflation
- [24] https://www.iris-france.org/iran-10-jours-de-guerre-ou-en-est-on
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-iran-une-guerre-d-usure-s-installe-au-moyen-orient
- [26] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-guerre-au-moyen-orient-des-frappes-entendues-au-dessus-de-doha
- [27] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260310-replay-guerre-en-iran-la-strat%C3%A9gie-am%C3%A9ricaine-expliqu%C3%A9e-par-pete-hegseth
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/focus/20260310-europe-s-borders-under-threat-from-russia-baltic-states-gear-up-for-war
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260310-trump-says-war-in-iran-will-end-soon-%E2%80%93-but-threatens-to-escalate
2026-03-10
2026-03-10
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级可能扩大至区域战争，波及海湾国家如巴林、沙特和科威特。
- 伊朗向土耳其发射弹道导弹，北约拦截，可能触发《北大西洋公约》第五条集体防御机制。
- 特朗普威胁若伊朗不屈服将加强打击，增加美伊直接对抗风险。
- 乌克兰前线持续战斗，俄乌冲突可能受中东局势影响而升温。
- 伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡风险，威胁全球20%石油运输，加剧供应危机。
- 伊朗新领导层强硬姿态，可能拒绝妥协，延长冲突持续时间。
- 大国如俄罗斯介入中东，增加地缘政治复杂性。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡关闭 / 全球石油供应中断 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀加剧
油价暴涨 / 亚太股市暴跌 / 避险情绪蔓延 / 黄金和美元上涨
特朗普缓和言论 / 冲突结束预期 / 油价下跌 / 风险资产反弹
G7政策协调 / 石油供应增加 / 油价稳定 / 市场情绪改善
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Times of India / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxPTFN3NW5QZFdieXBpUmh0N3dBYndKcjkzaVp3N2lISU1VbkZNelVMZGlHb1V5b3lYSVJTMjY1bzJNdGdjNmljdjFfY3RoV1RwbFpXVENCTE9ndzB4amI3cmdoT25iVDhWRWxXNWtRWU5HR2Y3NkN0QzIxa0djVlBlWjY3eGtaWHhhSlRv?oc=5
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiigFBVV95cUxQNjN6NlVFX0IxVW5penE4TEV4WHZMZTY2YjhER3kwWkxYcHZudldsM1RVN3hBdHlEcFNwS3J6RnNqZllqN2I0cHZXSlBMSjllS05SM0dQWG5tNTJFLWVLXzEtZkxsS2ZxYzJxSEV4ZkFUZ0hUd1V1d2xja0xBcVpJZFBBRDI4TGo1RXc?oc=5
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-israel-launch-strikes-across-175355831.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE5lYzVaNzRiRU1vNjF5MWFMb3d4N0VoUlB3UEs0TFpDcjZEZG5JbFRqN2t5Q1lDbFZYSU5hSTZoR1RDYTRHcUgzQ1ZyUXlObmNEdlIzeEdndUxFOEd5SGlPSENZSWJqTVBaV0dLRTVNTTVnLVBpbTV6Qw?oc=5
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/634212-oil-100-barrel-small-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-second-ballistic-missile-at-turkey-nato-intercepts-will-the-attack-trigger-article-5/articleshow/129332235.cms
- [8] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/f124c669dd43416f8e4ba9fd908aacf3/c.html
- [9] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/abea00315f4b47289cfbeefdaac77f79/c.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/20260309/db66c48278554551bc2be3748f7a46ee/c.html
- [11] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/5b9e2b8621c04b448f63a5d1d86a1829/c.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260309/87c01a718e3449b3bdc495475c795182/c.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-10-of-us-israel-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260309/a509f2ed53c94024ab2516747db85aba/c.html
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584278.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584273.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584277.shtml
- [18] https://www.news.cn/world/20260310/fada381db92e44e0af00b9b1e381f1e7/c.html
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/trump-says-us-israeli-war-on-iran-will-be-over-very-soon?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-AFBVV95cUxPMFo5M3IwNzJnbG5TNFBPY1BySkk5M2VkNEJsdW5IekgwUFJLVmR2SEhFTFBuSVRsOWN6R3hWa0xtWlRYcktzSlJlaHJfXzc3V25QZS0zd1dpUlZPc2k5dGptRUYzeFhiWUtYSndEaEQwOWVRdHFmcmMzeDVvb21hNGtlS3dIWHRuUG5oRkZPanZ1b3JMbDlTUUVJUllqclRubGRIVzBCQ20ta0xKc0txWk9MN1hIVkVfSzBUakVrMm9tMDl2YzdwOHF5VFpaWmN1SkN2WGtTY0RKb2JfOHJmdXVWYzBWMDlXZDNaUWtjRm5fMjF0Sm1VYg?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi7wFBVV95cUxObXJkNnV2QTNQczJIdmhOX3YwTE1IdUJ2QzZ2MmRxRWJ4YWFKU2h4Y1VaQkFKNG8weVNxX0tIM1J1S2pKMUNiV3gzblB1NndnbHBhRkduX05OOGFlNjdEa3N2WGVMMDhfS2xxb2ZCMVZQVjRBZkJ1SENSTHlaYVdVdDJGdl9id1g0dXZ3OTlJZVp2VFZxdzNQV0lNeXZIc0x5RUFWTWFhRGJYWkNpdTRwQVphcVZFWkptVDNEbktjTUlwbnJFelB6Mkx3WnVUU3B3WF82V3VmMlhwRXNVX0dJUjM5VHZfa1BmN25iMmxOdw?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE4wTExGeE5CMjNoYWJKOWN4bDloaTJMVE9NaGJ5amtkQllLUmpJSVN2RkM5ZDk2VmYyRFRuMU5GQUFDc21JNzVBWThrejhCeDZ3ZGptWVhjQktBRmNqa3QwWXM1bzBkZVMyTHdWb29PUkphMUlPeHItNjk5X1E?oc=5
- [23] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-trump-says-war-to-end-soon-but-not-immediately/live-76271521?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-10/10584264.shtml
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxPT2lEbHhnbHQ3ckhiaWplNmV0OXVuZVdPUmVvemFXaG44dGxMNVFIS29nMW5uRkRfZ0V5Q3BnZ0RTSXh1VWcxQzc4WGxLNTBFVnJqdUJXVDZZVHhUTUx4b2h2ZU5VSUwzMm5fcnpJVXBUNEtXZ1IyRXdfRFc5UDU5aXFiSXRRX2M0WWMxdnU5cC1ELU9vU0x2c1pHQVdWcVppWXlhMVdad2x3T3RtQkFnZWtWUzhYQk16eFNTQWlydm50MWJqRDVGX3NDMUJvYTFSQVlIV2xUdVNrakdQ?oc=5
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4099791-war-update-122-combat-clashes-on-front-lines.html
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071332ggP
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310071551lHG
- [29] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260310070742PLx
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260310070606xM6
2026-03-07
2026-03-07
进展要点
- 美以军事行动持续，可能导致伊朗报复或冲突扩大至其他中东国家。
- 俄罗斯介入提供情报，增加美俄对抗风险，地缘政治格局复杂化。
- 中东航班大规模取消，数万人撤离，全球旅游业受威胁。
- 黎巴嫩和迪拜受影响，地区不稳定加剧，人道主义危机恶化。
- 海湾石油供应中断风险，威胁全球能源安全和供应链稳定。
- 国际社会反应不一，联合国安理会可能介入，但美国盟友支持有限。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 全球通胀压力 / 央行政策收紧预期
弱就业数据 / 降息预期升温 / 美元下跌 / 股市波动
地缘紧张加剧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和石油价格上涨
海湾生产中断 / 油价飙升 / 经济增长担忧 / 市场风险情绪恶化
来源
Xinhua World / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / Xinhua Finance
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260306/ec1ff965f49e473ba5e109ca53a30371/c.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAJBVV95cUxQOFkzal9NUmh6OVNYVlZBUVpJVTNMY2lRTWxqemR6STRpckhJc3lkSTczSWVpT0F3NnZZeUtZUnRLeVpBUmlwR21DSEhIMVp6WjVFWHlva2U1N3lTbWktZF9hcWNUMU0xdE5wTld6SE9OTU05Z3Vuejhsak1uN2VvaXRYckJkV09ySG9oUkl3N1NGTXVyZlpKblByZGNDamJRMnJhNjUwVmtHZFNPVG1qRF85Y25mSkkzV3pmSHVpend6TS04LV9fN3RtbGdWSWZVcHpVRXBQcjk2WVdCdW1aMU1EYlNxUzlzMDB5UnpYODhUeG9UMFBLOXBVUmJFTzluaW8xTmNEVVdhRk0yTFd2bk55U1V1SUJWa1l5Wi1EWXJUTG13?oc=5
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy031ylgepro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/strikes-on-iran-to-last-four-to-six-weeks-white-house-says?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTFA4aGFEWWF2N1MxbVZUckpRSFBXaWduejNwS3lGSktJbV8wcmFVRW9vRUU1c0hNZERqdWo5S3ViUVZpclZodllUTEJTNU55cURfSnpjbEhn?oc=5
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Business/dow-drops-650-points-iran-war-sends-oil/story?id=130824337
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNeG5wRnd4dlUyRnM1TWlyUFJMSlIxRHR0NlFyNTlLcUJoUmE4QzhGMWJ1Rm1CeU1jX3BGazgzWTRlUEZhS0tIbEpibjFnY3Z5S2x3X3VwTC11akh1cENhVzN4cnpPRzdFaDVGZjdQQVVwZ045b3hubjhDLTY0Z2hwSGNoTUxQVnA3ODhCYXJWYWFlS1ZzeGdwMTItSzJzeGFHR0h2VXp1bjY?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd98091g28o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/russia-provided-iran-information-help-191321667.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxOTS1SbFJTdkh0alhXZ3J6VTRKSUFNZjcyeFo4SU1UME5laUZuRk5WTmJDQkk0VFNuRmJfN0g4b3c5VlZxWm96Y1FfVXY2T1NOMFZwbTNlbGI0NVlRVndWbktkSzIwazdIY2VWYkFldFlLeFZpemZVQm5HV0FDV1N0dmp2WXlMdzVNVE1RYVhPeGtfYS05UHJ3X0NpTDnSAaIBQVVfeXFMT0VncGZqT0FINHlFY0piRmlHWWJTOXZDaGhzRkJnc25KbklNa3lJaXREWGlFVUR2b21NWGJtZ0Rkd29pcHRFZ09OXzR2MEdSY3FubmNQLXBucFBOczZCY1ZRM0NjUlcwT093ZGE1UkY0cDV4cE9fU1NCSWVsaXVJQ2x1S2lBOUhhQ0JMYWtwTnNLT1hleFpHTmlEM2tMNmdPLUtB?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/6/why-did-the-us-torpedo-irans-prize-warship?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNVGZmRGhwVEZsMXNxODNwY05xNUtGdUxveXdfakFMakhZbERtcWgxTW9MRXR4LVJFdHhXOWctczRLb05CSVFPZ0E3VkFDVTY4UWxQcDVPOE5kTEJLeWg4Q2dBYUlfXzBSTlF2cktLNEpiTklfc3dnT3dLYnBTdk1iSUh6OVZxOEMyWVZxdTlTZ3JMUlRxb2RrLVAzTUJLUWlRSVB6QkNMMVZfaWNYUGNCZk5GQk5XWDZyTHkxWdIBwgFBVV95cUxQVS1iVFphVlRheUcxNlgzYmhnbVFsTUZlbFljTWJGN0drbWZyd014NjRBT0FOSGprMXlkS3pEdFJiT2FuX09PR1BkU0I0eTVfM1lYSkJWSWJxc3ZrMDViNU9WUWJTY1hHQUZSZ0pUZ0JycXhpMTBXXzR6NjdVT3VVLWtXVWdEUHoyNDFocEVuQTZNX1hROXQ
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260307/b9c82f2aab50482fb69b63c615e4d37a/c.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE15VEw1WUVXMzJiS0ZBUUVRRjRndzlVQktlajVJQWIxc25Gd18xLWJ4X0Uxa3BTZ2dXVHU4alJTYXNMOFdsdXJSaXdocjVwZlhFd0YxSzJ3UW1sQQ?oc=5
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/6/us-and-israel-attacking-iran-at-record-pace-war-monitor-says?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.sky.com/story/weve-taught-toddlers-to-take-cover-living-in-dubai-as-iran-attacks-13516244
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE5jaS1FdjUzSFh3Vy03S1JmazRyV1V0ZFF3VzlUblUyV2ZSQmVIYVhwTl9JMnQ2YUVfQUpTdVo5dnB1RHdVUDJ3c01zTVJESzhsV21SZXZRMzVMdw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/634027-who-will-invade-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNakVxRTA4NGhrNkNzRW5ScS1OamsyaHo1enBwTmtGNUdMcU9vVTZBdlRFOUlhdWl2YXlva2ZySmxqMkZDTHJrQVZsUDZxTmxIV2VyTWhQLUM1bURTeUQ0dW9JUF9TMzFGY1pMSmpybi1EZlpadW5HTWIwZGJoWDAtMUNKU0xRNnByRFc5cldXNFlPYzNFZS1rSXBIVk9qV1RqcXlxY3BDOGR6bk9FOWpWOA?oc=5
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE1PSWUwWGZyVlU1QVoyOE1PWk1md1MxR1dKRE1iN3U0SHRFZllvTlNxS0x2cDE1amVLUVFFYmVpQ0V4YTlfMmNBNHFTQXZLR0IyVUVRd0Uza2VBXzFaVlU3dUxmM2l3d2tDQ1VxLVdpSGY?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQM212N1dDQVJlUjJlODFrWlVpVUFYWG1oYkoweE1PQUo1Zy1BWGFQX2Z1emFBc1BVUVJHMUU3MTNUck5PYlNwQ2VkZUR3c0lRYlQ4VVl1SEc1OVJTV21HVWZTRGNTQ0FOaWk1TDFMcjlOVENPZUtycEs5ZnRfanNCbnl6cXhvRmQtYldjbTdQY1NzM09tOUpJT0w4cHdMNW00QVNDVHMtdkR4Zm1wQnVEUGpR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/634016-iran-war-trump-division/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUFh4c0djeTJobnBEVmtQeVUyTVJubkw5UGducS02T1pUMjE2QmhDQnM4aVRlSnRacFoxelVIazZnSExCdGZvMnZKcFU2dmt6dzg3WHcwN2FfQjZLaFNKNXpuemRSckxubXdYdGxXeWptek92dXhfaVNSVmlVWTNJaHJjVDY0Z9IBiwFBVV95cUxNNmVWRVloV2N6OHFickp4MVNwT1BLZGd1ckYxWlhYUll2NVNwNHNOVHpTSDJNQXpNM0lhaDJFN1lCYzYzTlBvb1hZVVRwb05RbjkxZS1TdTYyRkl5bGZ2T0o2WTk3aHJSSGVXTWl1MkFBZU5heG9fNDRyTE8zVjJ3QXB5dFMzci1tRDVB?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/6/has-donald-trump-failed-to-sell-the-iran-war-to-the-world?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPci1VOHg5YXlMYzh5RkNfcXJsZEZGQlFqVDhMYmpyWEZqR2Q4VzRiVlJ6S2hpUVZia21JRU84aElKV3ExU0lKT0Ffc1R4Z2lRTUNMeTFaWWU3UGQ1LTV4YWJ5eG9nQ3Y3VHl4eUx6Y28xLU04Um56S1dVVjJiWVVLS1NnLXFnQUtXT3NrY29VS29WS2ZnNGJhMmZJbEJuZ1ZHek84RUJJNHlxQ0tSVE1FWlFmMEI?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1ZVkc1SXRLM0I1RU13T2U2V0NrcnJXMFJONDZmYjVDOVFObEE3ODJmVHVjLXFkNGVjVkQwekZjaC1tQWxDdXhiYzlTRm1xMXhkNUFmY0VKLTA5ZnhMOG9HUnJfVGpKMlB1bmNOVlVmOHRUdlRMMk9Jb0hnbw?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNTXVNdVREcHA3Ti1kMmIwUkhQbkt4cmhWdkNQSlJvb3hlX1E1ZXFPRmlQS3JtMUJaMVo4X0g4bElFLUdZRFk5ZG8yUHNrYTYzQnpnVVdZcVdQOHdqZzBLZmNPdWJDcG4zNU5LWjJtelY2WG02OGdKeHZRM0gtRlhQOTBYRjRORk5XSUFYRDRkTFFJVHEwNFpqakhWYnZmMExYQVZoN291bw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/6/us-job-market-stalls-unemployment-rate-rises-before-fed-decision?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpw004xqxnjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [30] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g88q764njo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-03-06
2026-03-06
进展要点
- 中东冲突扩大至黎巴嫩和叙利亚，引发地区人道危机和流离失所。
- 霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭风险，可能长期影响全球能源供应和贸易路线。
- 伊朗报复行动不确定性，包括针对美国盟友或航运的袭击。
- 第三方国家如英国、加拿大可能介入军事行动，加剧冲突国际化。
- 美国国内政治分歧，众议院投票可能影响战争进程和外交政策。
- 俄罗斯等大国反应，可能利用局势扩大地缘政治影响力。
- 海湾国家能源安全脆弱性，拦截器短缺增加防御压力。
- 印度等地区国家外交压力，因伊朗军舰事件涉及多边关系。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运瘫痪 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀和增长担忧
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金、美元上涨和股市下跌
能源供应冲击 / 商品成本上涨 / 央行政策滞后 / 经济放缓风险
冲突扩大 / 第三方国家介入 / 市场不确定性加剧 / 资产价格波动
来源
France 24 #2 / RT News / France 24 #3 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / ECB Press Releases / Sky News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-iran-under-heavy-attack
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-war-in-the-middle-east-global-reactions-and-military-deployments
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-bombing-rages-in-iran-as-war-widens-in-middle-east
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633892-iran-crisis-oil-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260305-iran-la-succession-d-ali-khamenei-s-organise
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-iran-pummeled-by-intensive-airstrikes-as-war-enters-day-six
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxNNkItZ0E2aDd2UDRLYm1nWW5KR1EyY05RX3lTUnFOTHpwbnJfckZBR0RjclVNT1paVnRod01rUVgwVTl0dy1KUlB2Y1czZmRZMkNRR1lFaTRnV09FQktuMGRIMnlxVEh6Zk95Vjk0N1dsaVI4Uy1na3ZBcWVNU1NYYkRtMUtGcURZRnpHeFUxaDh4QkRJOGIzUGt2d2ozaGvSAaQBQVVfeXFMTnRsclY0NEk5NHVmMHQwd3BzWjhZNWhSblVFaTRBM19KUWFXbjhzVFNIT1FLc2lyWHpXX0NSVmJyUjRUQTlwQWM0MVI2a0NCNDk1Wi01aHZSR3VMVEs0eUh3QThlLWgyT3laR25SaWR5WnFIdk94LXY4Zmd6eEVOQ3pQaDVRdjEzMzhCb1F4cTVzMjVJdjM2RDdMeXJhZ2Q5czJhcmc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603060611491Qk
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH2026030606043019B
- [10] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/rare-earth-yttrium-hits-new-high-up-140-fold-in-1-year-on-china-curbs
- [11] https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/accounts/2026/html/ecb.mg260305~4a9b7afe1c.en.html
- [12] https://news.sky.com/story/diesel-at-16-month-high-as-iran-war-drives-oil-prices-up-further-13515828
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxQZGRlNF9hdHF0dzN0dkZTQU4wWGxla2J6MHB4NkpwalBTVTRrNkxaMWM3TmNVOWZSUEM0TnZ0aXNiNW5XUDhWX1JvOEJLM05tdjFGRlJ2YTQyT040RVdOT2RnYVBrbHFrWU1KSVRtaHFxOTRTbkdHMTFFV1FYSVE2c0VIVWZVTDRDNy1MbGFyVGRYXzJtYjBPbkZHdDRaN3BCT1BSZFVWeWY3UlF6aFdHUG5CV21mZw?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/us-house-of-representatives-to-vote-on-latest-effort-to-halt-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260305-how-vulnerable-is-the-gulf-iran-war-escalation-undermines-energy-security
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-us-war-on-iran-has-no-plan-b-warns-scott-lucas-trump-just-wants-to-kill-people-and-blow-stuff-up
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOcGN3STktTEJxdnpGSTc3TUdaWk81eWo0eFR0NmtRaXNBaXhwNF9UV25hZmxPODlsTFplajBmWkJCVEJkYnhicXZncmlVTGJublV3bTFCVC01cDNFY1ZaZ0d4UDJkNWl3S1RWNDd2cl9TRXNzcmVBMm40a3pJcEVNa0VYN0hzS041RVg4TFF0VlhyNHR1aXVjMi1GbEtvYTlKMW5oaGpJckpfQkt2MllEQXdsUnVjR19lYUFVQtIBwgFBVV95cUxPU3FjSXNLdlREWFhzcUdYMkF0U1F3VG1aOE9hREM0VV80RnJwWTljRWhGNGU5NGt3QXR3UVY1ZjUwSU5yOUN4Tm4yNExLYUpWZlB0TlkzUlg2ZFZSZXFfOFNya1VZV1pUQ0tSMmdtbk5RczBfOF9Cb0RZb0xSaC1jNE1XZjF6TEdEZEdxVjJYWTlWMFIwaVZ
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/explosions-rock-tehran-as-israel-intensifies-strikes-on-government-sites?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy884ekn0jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/buildings-devastated-by-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-death-toll-rises-to-77?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260305-israel-orders-people-to-leave-swathe-of-beirut
- [22] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east-5-march-2026
- [23] https://news.sky.com/story/defence-secretary-twice-declines-to-rule-out-britain-joining-strikes-on-iran-13515754
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxQOUJNX3JOYkZqM1ViTmw1TlpoOUhWT0RkQ0pHeDR6UFhpeHZMWHJ5djlCSnU5WU5PV283ZU1hdHFvTVhDY2ZjQkthWHpZUUJpdjZ5Z2RIMEdFbjBBNlhNU1hfYlNRNFpGNnY3QzlSeHVZeVNHcU5lU21Ud1hVXzFwWk9pREJTOVFsc2NwUXYzVHh0TUJE?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQdVRyUlBoQ3UwOHlodnBjVnJKYnJSS2FmTDVHUkxTQ1dHWG9ucC1sdmFIdVN4dEsxMGE5eGo1Y3VCV2RFbkVvVVRNTDF3Mjg3UVpkUnpUaUt6VXJXUkFmMEl3QmFXT1JOdmRpQmVLMkhGOGxKUi14QzQzdk5TT3NaaExBaUdNN1FGclJCM1ZDdHBacEFiUF9TazNTdUpidUhYWTdYWHFBXzI3TUJtaXIzd0RGSkV6dG8?oc=5
- [26] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/3/5/aje-onl-tt_irn_usiranmonday_av_v1-020326?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633899-politico-us-preparing-months-long-war-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxOUWpRVWFsaG5naThuUzljRkpCcjJIenFzeGRnZU5lN1ZIX3VvWFcxMUZJOGVvbTZFaTRNSFcwX1puMGJ2TzhlbF8ybkdLbDJwU1NEUXliVkNxLVA3a3NJVHA3ZnVneXJ3VEpkbEdHeXJXSHJPcTd3MXBxVGU1UlBIZUtFR25ZR1JSb19vY3NHdzd0UExHTEhweEpnTnc0VDR6c0hqYXdBRERwWmFnSjRpT3lqNkF6TU9iN19n?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/5/videos-show-destruction-after-us-and-israeli-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-05
2026-03-05
进展要点
- 美伊冲突可能扩大至霍尔木兹海峡，威胁全球约20%石油运输
- 伊朗国内权力真空导致地区不稳定和潜在内部冲突
- 美国关税上调引发全球贸易战风险，影响主要经济体
- 俄乌冲突外溢至能源领域，加剧欧洲能源安全担忧
- 中东紧张局势可能波及周边国家，如土耳其和海湾国家
- 科技巨头因冲突调整运营，反映区域商业环境恶化
关联路径
美伊冲突升级 / 中东石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产（黄金、美元）需求
关税上调至15% / 全球贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓和股市波动
地缘风险缓解传闻（美伊接触） / 市场情绪改善 / 股市反弹和油价调整
积极经济数据（美国就业） / 支撑风险资产 / 部分抵消地缘负面影响
来源
The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Times of India / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/briefing/the-us-accelerating-its-attacks-on-iran.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxNdjU0NmlDTWxZNnNDQlhDWGdqSHhJbGt6dzRaX21RRTdYVVdXWUF5MG1OMHlOMVFYWHRtZEpmYzJreTRyR3hSbnRKeVBJRHBpdjdoR096dWkzN0FlcEhhZXNNcnIzVU9lMjlmZEZINHI5Q0xnUXpVUmE4MDloaklUQW01YjdHNjM4aDFPbUcyeXZRNzdqbEtJaGtKR3BHOUV1LWowalhtSkxwSHA3OGpsN2s5R3FTY3hhellV0gHAAUFVX3lxTE5JQm81cFJhanQ2VlJoSlZCZGQxZi1YMFdsWV93a3IwN1kwNVQwQVFWWHBPc0g1QXV5S05zZjFlTGtNYWtZZ29RNXR6aHVweUVUcUZVdWxVZTAweEFmMnprd0lZQXFtdnFMVVhqLS00ZDN3ekZ5Nkk5RkZWb1d3OWc4bko5dVozQktkZnpfb3g1VzlrUjJuVnR
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/death-toll-in-iran-surpasses-1000-as-israel-us-strikes-continue?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305073628QBz
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050522586xF
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQV0UySVFKQmRQOFNKTUpZX2xFbUFaT0Fpa3ZZdFJld0ZTU3o2V1VEWGlxbTJOYTRnTHNPSy1Ed3p5OXJjcWNjRVJsM2ZWeFctZE5mN3BmY3RVcF9mRDh6UEl4ZXNZTG1XLTZMRnVvNllrNldpT3g3M1R1VGxKOVFFa2M1cjNZVHJLbU1Ga2VUeVMwM3pkS21YUDR30gGfAUFVX3lxTFBiNVBqUnNhVGgyUGhqOVZFeEVlODdvcV90OEpjZnRpV1AxR0FzbXgtYkp2RVF0ZkFjajRVb3ZUaHhJS2dOS1FrRGtXS21GdFNaZjlheElfUkNGMlVTaFllWXJfRDRGelFPU0dBRm4wY1UwTWFoN19LSmI5YXI0d2xJc2V6LTAxanIzWVhSS21VOHdUWGFNTGJrMHMya0dZVQ?oc=5
- [7] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1042499/korban-tewas-serangan-as-di-iran-capai-1045-orang
- [8] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/international/watch-exact-moment-us-strike-hits-iranian-ship-killing-over-85/articleshow/129033347.cms
- [9] https://abcnews.com/Politics/video/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st-130753852
- [10] https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-sinks-iranian-ship-torpedo-indian-ocean-1st/story?id=130752053
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/world/middleeast/iran-navy-ship-sri-lanka.html
- [12] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305001514U4x
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/us-submarine-torpedoes-iranian-warship-in-indian-ocean/a-76216943?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9xSDI4dFhkT2E1NklVZXNqMU1hdXJSNEUyMERzSW5xb3BKMm41ZlB1Mk56TFhJMFdzUlhWaGJDcTNmY3Y3YVpjNzZMc2hjR0xYeUdNZEYtQUdzWVdsNlhOdnM3TGdHRTlmX1pXenVraHM?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPNXM5TFNKSmxnUUIyVlVNY1M5Sl9rdkxmSEZ0amVJM1BJQzVLQmNMeENQcDRfLU1TLVh3Ukw4YjRqUnVqM0JOYjV6U0NMVTRrSU8tT2hKOVFqMF82MDNXbjZMRjZvR19lSUFXVTIzQ3pmZTgwTG1PZU1mTVo5cU52TW5aOVJTM1h0QnMxbnFGZm0xdDVIX04xTC1DeGFFa25Oa3VyUWpR?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/over-100-people-missing-after-us-sinks-iranian-military-ship-off-sri-lanka?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAJBVV95cUxPN3FTcWRwVG9yZlZtYURzOWhjeS1rX2xkQlBJaEJZZFh2TDg2ei1pOHp3eENOVlpHcmZ3UDduOUtRQTdvaUM4OW5lSWlhdEZ3WHFDb2Vzc1lsYmUydWlCN2V6cFBkTlRvdnZ2bjlHa1lvWTE4dlZhei1oNTFJOVZPeTU4Zk9Mb0htRTdON3BCcWVuUjdCbTN3RTZ3dmhQc1h5Mm1ha1k5VkxBZkNCeGE5OWY4Sm5yeXF5RWxaTmRqT2F5YUNoT1haTE4tWmkyR1lDQWFpenB2SExTa2xwbHNVT2d1azBiZE90cjkxaHByRVVOblBYQ3h4dEZuWGFSYnVT?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNZ3o2Z0QySUZYbzZhdzNBVmgyNkRoNW9YYkF1NmlsM3RDTFRLWFY1M0Y1Z0t5bXg3YngtNHpVeTZ5ZmkwOUhYX2tTN2h1bkRQSnNpZmZKS2V3dENRS3NOMGsta2xtd2lVWktmLURjbzNWY09xWVJwc2lzeTFheVRXYkJsTzJGQjhQLVRITjRIZ1VRc3Y2Zi10Z1dzWEhVN1ViQ0NfWUFaU05SZHdYYWNlMFl4SQ?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/us-will-rain-missiles-death-and-destruction-on-iran-trump-aides-say?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/4/traders-mint-money-on-betting-platforms-on-us-israel-strike-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE1TUi1od2ZDcDNHZHdmaTNhbEREZjV3OTNCZjBPdjluQXYxYWplQ1ZlaTVid1MxRzJZMDMzSjJQSXdlbkkzeTJDWnZ3SUNFREVLX2c3eFI2TG5zUQ?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/4/how-is-the-war-playing-out-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/4/trump-us-forces-doing-very-well-on-the-war-front-in-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/tariff-may-be-hiked-to-15-this-week-scott-bessent/articleshow/129055667.cms
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305075648wwf
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603050754285ab
- [27] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99jjr7d40yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305072036cok
- [29] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-rates-us-war-effort-15-out-of-10-vows-to-push-on-against-iran/articleshow/129051534.cms
- [30] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260305065435LlX
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
进展要点
- 中东冲突扩散至海湾国家，如沙特和卡塔尔卷入。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险威胁全球20%石油供应，加剧能源危机。
- 美伊战争引发区域外溢，真主党在黎巴嫩宣称准备全面战争。
- 欧洲大国如法国批评美国行动违反国际法，可能增加外交摩擦。
- 俄罗斯等外部势力可能介入，加剧地缘政治复杂性。
- 伊朗袭击民用目标如学校，引发人道危机和国际谴责。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力和股市下跌
地缘政治风险上升 / 避险情绪升温 / 黄金和美元需求增加 / 风险资产抛售
特朗普贸易威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 市场波动和避险资产流入
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/4/iran-live-news-us-embassy-in-dubai-hit-israel-pounds-tehran-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/idf-destroys-secret-nuclear-over-211910871.html
- [3] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4097728-us-military-says-over-1700-targets-hit-in-iran.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633639-energy-markets-reaction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/2f0d9742944b4a138d93fb39776d074f/c.html
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9HcW90OWVjOXIxeDRKc3N4MGNfRkFMRjUtT0VhT2oyeHlsUm91OUZUYWR3TmRudjBGYWJYVWdKRGh2TTNLQnhuaXlEYnpBRE1kVU13Q0htb0lBTXdYMDVYUzBYR1p1azJhUjZrOU5R0gFzQVVfeXFMUDBRTDhHXzNvVFp3dTBfU1ByZEVySElzenoxU0M3QUtzcmY2R2ZYRldEVm9JZnNMQTFJTmdNUXQ4akxfYzBHWTZ2SkJvYm1XY0JHZGp5ZW01aXhRbFJvX2NxeVFaWmZqRVNOLVZHeTRpU2hPdw?oc=5
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBHbDdHZ2IyRkpZbjc0WDF1WG9SMkxNWTJNdTlhUmlZNVdHQU5PaVFXT0Q2MngyemZNblpqckhKcG9Pa0hmQkJqMWhPOWZpMjBtMmhuWmNUZFFIdnh1Q2dDQUNyOFZ1M1VxRlVaV3VaZjVZWmlJT25Wdw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260304/53a69df4e0d74a8eb47ff5e82c504e40/c.html
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNb0J1ejdjZU56ZlQ4Z2ZkLVNJZWdyendSUFZFNGJxSTlVQnlQRno5RzV3RjFMWUw5anpjajNFVUkwUDVvVEZRb1F4ME1lZndpa2JuMUdWc2RMV19LRGFabWJ4bmEwdkNxZFhsNXB2UEtuRWY2czVRS3MtMjhNc09qcjZsWkhna0tCWDFORkxfNXA0bVRMZEg5SXkydHFXWDE1M2E3MGlBdmU?oc=5
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxObDJhQXpCWDFZY2ExMWlvM20td3I1a1pJRFdkQ2Joakh3SkpmWTNMWDdjMVVNbnpwd0lrcHRVeG5IMmNGRDRtMFhnYUVPMGplT3BHRzRHVVdWemUwd2p1R2JwZkE4ZjUzZzBrbXZONkMzeWk5R0lLZjhTbEc4aEVBWktqSQ?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOTTR3OWFWWFo1ZTZLRUV4R2NzUXVRV3Z6UUFGNWtJQ1hJU1JDMEN0Sml1ZnZaUXlsYTQ2TGx1NlBoTUxlWmFnQWkxcXNvYVJFX0IzSEpWXzFZUUQwaVllN1ZDcGRGeTd2czFhMkRucW9ZeG5aVWdUOU8xVGM1X2xHSzNOaExta0dpaGJlbW5vR3RRdERmMHNoeDl3OVdEZGdxT1E5N3hpcHNCY0hH?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNaFM1X0dITWZ2b2lSOEluZjVabjJnOVA0dmM3VmNWbTFpbFp4TnFOQ1huOWxSeWNZMHlWaTBYakFwX0psTkJJVEo2M3M4X3NudmJQLUdKTFhLa1ZUd2wzOXE5Zl80NDlBX2dGcHVTR1NCOGdlckQ0R0xFQmxZZS11NQ?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOWk44LTU4dDlfaDJqb2hvSzJ0X2JHWlAyaVEzX1FRYVZBSVV2QWUtNU1LaUpvUkR3V0pJQjJNTHlVSkxzM0Rad3ZLemU1eDlTUlJlRmxkeVhGNDFzU0R3NkZnTzdVal9tc01fLXRrSEktd1dWUnVtQ0o1MjB2dzF0ZlpTcmNyX1hrS2dvUHdleWtBRGxkOV82dFlISUZkN1ctOEZIdk5jeUdIaExrTmQxRlJTUWVLaGRT?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-strikes-saudi-infrastructure-pushing-211940999.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/unpacking-us-justification-for-iran-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxQWk9Nb1JVRVF4OGJyQXZDNjBjOXl0dTNXMDM1ZDE1RF9LSVJoTjFyZk03UUZTSFd6eFhodlZUNUgzMzJRbDh4TUpjdkVvWGpBZmhDZy0tRTRYUzdLdlc3UzRHd25CQUZNbXhKWnc0Sm5XQ283QXZCUi0yQk5STW1yenBtT3ZpM2w2aV8zWUhRWkpJWF9xU0w4M2RpYTFMMEJrYWNR?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxOMzQ1dXdtQ1lEOWZzclZuVU4tSERVU21JcnFxRFhVUF9uMWpnd1A3dTJWanE4SGJpRkp2QzhFdVlweV9DNEJkeEdLdl9UUGxCVS1HMUFjSDdjQWNYdEdTbzJCand2NFRVSjZxUkNLSU02bUpCQnR2ajVWcXA2a251ZEhTS3ZIejB0b3VtYnBjeG16T3VwVkdUcVZGMlRnRlEwYzlnVE1xelYzM2hTOXpFc2dNbGdudGxPX1czZm5TOG5BZVJrbzllemJqLVo?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBSN3NFbjZjS0ZpRm1qUnBKbGl6Yjh1Q29YYWZ1ODQyYVNnX2NydVpWODZkTHBRM08yQnZKZFZ0bHo0Q2dYQ2NERkJrdVlnZFl1Q2tmZVVaZGM1c2hGckp4LWxlLWU5S094LXc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zg54g5vvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxQWm1TOGdTSmpTb3FHRzJjeGNZTDR0Y2pNaTVCeVNnbG9GRS1SRy1mb19IcFNuWE9hR1hXSkc2N2dvZU1Pd29Pdi1nWXZTQm1hME5aMkp2ZFNXWDJmbHRUMHhmNVZuN0FaSjV3Sk1mRTU0cXpOM18xWW1PXzFYS0hMRUFoakM1ckZIMVM0cTRlbXJPMUk1M1lHRThiQjhUYl9HZ3VqTE93dU0wdw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/travellers-stranded-airlines-under-pressure-as-iran-war-escalates?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/3/3/what-are-the-implications-of-irans-strikes-on-gulf-arab-states?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/633653-iran-minab-schoolgirls-funeral/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5lz0vgy52o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE9ZNnlqYV9mM1ZRZnc0MFlGRXZvVzdJZkVKMHZHN2tqeE40dXItRHBqZTBBMHJVVFpUT1JMekRUY21DVm5qZjc3Y3BFQ0Mwd05SZkI2OFhUa1hhdTBSMFZj?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/worst-case-scenario-trump-weighs-replacing-khamenei-as-leader-of-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPSTNiY2docGxMcHdCNjhHZjBJbWRTUmJDU1ZYR0tHVFdMc095a2VMSzBLaUxIa0hmdWFfM1NtaDgzcmlrUWE2QWFFSGNPelY1dWZET21NdWZlVENtU2VVVXZNdks0Rm91SU5FMVBDTUN0UGpxMXpjQkU1MUEteEpkZEFkdVVvbllmYlJPSC12WlQ?oc=5
- [28] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/us-will-provide-insurance-for-ships-in-gulf-amid-iranian-attacks-trump?traffic_source=rss
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/3/iran-mourns-165-girls-staff-killed-in-us-israel-strike-on-minab-school?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPenNLZHlGTHVkdFBkR3BNYmRZcWtDdTdscGt2aklhN1AzbzM5OUFhV0ktRE54RjVTMF9vWFhZWmpJb1VOOU81X1NvbGwtWXE4cnN4NEtxWUMyczJlWTFNZjNtWmowMDRYWXpXRzNhak1hTzhxVTBEcC1lQ3NOSlp0dDE4RjRkWmtkeEZfRmgwSTJEemdBanfSAZsBQVVfeXFMT2tmeGx3eHp1cnVGRGdvMkdNOTRMRkZqWjlLa1J3N24xZVFuenAzSjd3NGxFT3BjbklJRnc5cjhJa0oyVkhLbWRfako0QlY3Y3lXLUlOZU8yeWdjSDdIeXI1N1Z1RXVxTnVPeVFnQXlmRmotSHVJOURXeEFJOWRYOUx0MVA3aTE2MXcxS2h6NURjaV9fUlgtOXRGc0k?oc=5
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
进展要点
- 中东冲突可能演变为全面战争，美国与伊朗直接对抗加剧地缘政治不稳定
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致全球能源危机，影响20%原油运输，引发油价飙升和经济冲击
- 地区代理人战争升级，伊朗支持的武装组织如真主党可能扩大冲突至黎巴嫩等地
- 美国军事行动可能扩展至地面部队投入，增加美军伤亡和长期战争风险
- 中东地缘政治重组，伊朗主导的'抵抗轴心'削弱，可能引发地区权力真空和混乱
- 油价上涨可能加剧全球通胀压力，促使各国央行调整货币政策
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力增加和避险情绪上升
伊朗反击和美国攻击 / 军事不确定性扩大 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
OPEC+增产 / 石油供给增加 / 油价下行潜在压力 / 通胀预期缓和和市场稳定
油价上涨 / 全球能源成本上升 / 影响经济增长和企业盈利 / 股市波动加剧
来源
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083504hC0
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/new-wave-of-heavy-israeli-strikes-hit-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303074950oQe
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030738314Rj
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303065730vHK
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/633541-iran-attacks-us-bases/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.dw.com/en/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-man-who-wanted-to-destroy-israel/a-76169184?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/us-israeli-strikes-hit-housing-hospitals-and-more-in-tehran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303050236bRV
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxOZy1DTC1Kb2dRcFNJR19MUWpWY3JIajBQTFJoQ3JYdWYtZnNEMGZSYWRVbzZHZ2RSYjg5bEJ2bkpTZHRzQzFlLUhfeHZmZEZRWkJEY29PNjRHYTFhbF9jblpfT2d5Y2RMWmtUaHNnLWlhbk5yRk8tXzlLLUVDQmVZS1pROExLVXRMeTNhTmR6SGdWQXdRS1FPaXVTR3VUOThzd3FPeUt6VE1PQWxCRi1Qa2RrSUR4YVJjcm9Va1FTVXJaZVNPMWJWbU8xM3ZSZw?oc=5
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPRmJEdk53OEpnU01zWnRIak5FX2QzbjNMVGQwWm5DYUVhbmNCZzJiNXRiU2Q0c3FGU2RjWllLVUZmMF9HaWZUbmd4SzJTRUU5eU1GWWdLN0g0cUEyVVBpdGRYZ05NS3RQZU5Zdm5TUGRreFpNSUNBX1kyLTFoSnVUN3NCSUM1OFpJUTE2X3o4cDE0emk3TEMw?oc=5
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPSjBuZWZ3MVFPbDJUc3YwOF9kNTJWSzYzS19ZYl9RdDUwTmFRV2E3RzJuUDVyck54VzZVX1Z4NUdhZzFHSlVVVE5XMFZFYWRwOGRFMjgxcnJDekZrNG0xdmIzMkVlbk9ldzJsTXktNTRFTXRENWlOYXNTa3RBempwRmt0eDdNVUdvekFaNTB5MFVzMTluSV9aWWtrYUVmQkFyNEZwenJKWmZ2ZFE?oc=5
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNU2NHaE5XeDg3VUE2STYwLW9pcDhQMDIyblFwcDVwMGlaWUJGQzJkY1NyRTAtVS05QmpVakFfMWNSRzlJd1poLWZsSkhHMmJRa3Q5Wlh3UF94WDJaSkVLSmlILUlaZXIxa0pUMjRMbG1yM2NldVlwZURDMHpvZmFCLTV6VWlGclJzYXZR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083926kBk
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260303084656Em8
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNeTZ6OFhCUVdnVUxtci1wbHNTSXZ0azNyTkRRbjN1aG5WNW5sQlVPSjhNbUZncFc3VHh5RlEzUk1FbjRGZTF5dHJRbVJSVThabWNiLWVIcmRhZUNMMjEwTW55UXVKdldlVVAyX0Z6Tl9MeVJVOEJWZ1NkbVdFOExkejJHbU93d2FhOVZRYVRLM2U1SWJRSEtqUEdabWRYV3Yxc3lrbDd6SF9NZDVWeW1lWmVZQTNONDlFRUNYa2FJSU5nV25v?oc=5
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303083641gZ7
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579735.shtml
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579730.shtml
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579729.shtml
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202603030756415hf
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603030719278Kr
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260303071916e5r
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-03/10579727.shtml
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSDVsRnRWUEg4c2hacEhwbkxLUEhyOEVfY05xRjVEajh4ZWFfOVVXb2Y0dEZsNGN1aXBMdjJIYTVwV2M0YmNnd253RDdBSTkyNW5QYTFJeHNMU1dwcUJSQW9memxMZXJuRHVOckt3U1p3WnJtVmx5NE52RWlpQ0M4VmdOODJOTkRNWGN2a0U1b0ZTTWpONDhHMnczZTVDT0I4S0ZFdjBNUmlwZm1CTUFqNFdxTQ?oc=5
- [27] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/00df4d951aa739aa.html
- [28] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/03/6b03954374bb387d.html
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxNaHRKQ2JvNjhkZG5YUl9SWjhGR2JSekg0ZmkwalBqUHpfcFU4X3Rkc2d5Nl9nOFR2UmJjeVUwZ3pIU196SEFqU285WXpHVHU1TDU4VnBXYzVlamhRRzJMREsxWXRybDlVTi12TTRXVDdzaENfVGdqd1N6T2ZTYkxyWE5adjBabkY3aE5ScTVjbG5vZw?oc=5
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/rubio-suggests-timing-of-us-strikes-on-iran-was-influenced-by-israeli-plans?traffic_source=rss
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
进展要点
- 伊朗可能采取更激进报复，威胁中东地区稳定。
- 霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发全球能源危机风险。
- 中东空域混乱影响国际旅行和贸易。
- 美以与伊朗冲突可能波及代理国家，如也门胡塞武装。
- 俄罗斯和中国介入，增加大国对抗风险。
- 巴基斯坦等地反美抗议可能升级为更广泛骚乱。
关联路径
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升
地缘政治不确定性 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨
冲突外溢至其他地区 / 全球供应链中断 / 股市下跌
美国军事行动持续 / 财政支出增加 / 美元走强
来源
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260302085315eAe
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNa3BOSmhLc1liQ1h5MWdwSlI3VkxvYlNtOThEeTFnRGFzR2tXeU9TZzV3WDNpVjEwWVRvT05SMVBFdjV2Ul9FdU9lR0pfeWV2dlZydUw3bWEtX0VVRlpVSjZ6cERqTkVYWDZfbUczaXkzRkgtOEhKREpFNW5TeUU4U05ONi10ZUdKUVJSVW5KWQ?oc=5
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/4db67bdab48842a693808cc24803f9b3/c.html
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/633393-khamenei-killing-america-and-israel/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579069.shtml
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579053.shtml
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579071.shtml
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQNFBVczFkN1FqZGZQWW82VEdNemVCS0VpSm9OLUxRVGNzZnAtUDJ4TnR5Wi04M2JhRmExT2gwV3Z6TDhiLWx6ZjhjSkhFVGVFdlRNZy1qM09HUVVvdEwtNTRVM054UTFCaWtlTjR3VmtQRy1rMVl3bjJROXVycnNfOTdXXzhBYTBIMzcxSXRWdkZEa3dBRG5NbGxn?oc=5
- [9] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260301-premiers-soldats-am%C3%A9ricains-tu%C3%A9s-lors-de-l-op%C3%A9ration-contre-l-iran
- [10] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-s-revolutionary-guards-pledge-revenge
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-hits-tehran-as-iran-s-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-is-killed
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260301-tensions-rise-over-strait-of-hormuz-as-tankers-caught-in-crossfire
- [13] https://www.france24.com/en/khamenei-confirmed-dead-iran-targets-us-bases-in-retaliation
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260301-iran-s-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-has-died-what-are-the-reactions-on-the-gorund
- [15] https://www.dw.com/en/us-confirms-american-troops-killed-wounded-in-iran-clashes/a-76177887?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579029.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-02/10579027.shtml
- [18] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c363zkp1pgxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/633367-jihad-is-coming-khameneis-death/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/video/latest-us-israel-attack-iran-130647282
- [21] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/israel-strikes-tehran-as-irans-counterattacks-widen-after-supreme-leader-was-killed/article70691620.ece
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260301/8fdd8eced80a4f8ebcff41ababa9766e/c.html
- [23] https://www.dw.com/de/ali-chamenei-der-mann-der-israel-zerstören-wollte/a-76168647?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [24] https://www.dw.com/de/trump-verkündet-großen-kampfeinsatz-gegen-den-iran/a-76160970?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQN1lCSVpTTkdMUnJsbXdkR1NaQVg5Y0xWRWVCWEdCRjJpZlpabEs1RDdvYmNPU2w3OXl4aHlscGF1dVYwcjJCTi1FVnZybjBMQzNyc3JUeEZISV9WeWNQckU4Qjh4ZGVpTVNueGhGNTJRVlM2YklKQjl3QjVtNWtNZ3FSSDBCX1BrZUd3ZFdGX2lGaGNNQmFYNDJkdDdqQnFkc1BEQg?oc=5
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/khamenei-s-death-never-thought-i-would-see-this-day/a-76175776?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633168-world-reacts-us-israel-attack-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633328-iran-airspace-chaos-stranded/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/more-strikes-aimed-iran-us-035109978.html
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWlRWdS1HSGlJd3dKSkZBbWxwRGtTV1hIaDNydm1mbTlhc2VFN1dqTkRxdVRmdWZjbDZjQVlVZnFvZjVKUThJRHQwMDFja3B6RTJINlNCSGkwTEs4cFpycmhOREVmS2dkT0ctYWxCU2lwV004alg2UlZxcW5WMFFYS1NSR0hibzJEUjZrSjlaUmJ2M3dacFF3ZXFR?oc=5
2026-03-01
2026-03-01
进展要点
- 中东全面战争风险增加，可能引发区域连锁反应。
- 霍尔木兹海峡长期封锁威胁全球20%原油运输，导致能源危机。
- 伊朗政权更迭过程混乱，可能滋生恐怖主义或内部动荡。
- 美以行动未经国会授权，可能加剧美国国内政治分裂。
- 俄罗斯和中国可能介入冲突，支持伊朗或推动外交解决方案。
- 巴基斯坦等地爆发亲伊朗抗议，增加区域不稳定因素。
关联路径
美以打击伊朗 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀和增长放缓
中东冲突升级 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市和风险资产下跌
伊朗政权真空 / 区域不稳定 / 石油供应中断 / 能源市场动荡
地缘政治风险 / 央行政策不确定性 / 利率和汇率波动
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Yonhap News Agency / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/03-01/10578570.shtml
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085431RoG
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301085325DhA
- [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-leadership-khamenei-shamkhani-pakpour-nasirzadeh.html
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080040SGr
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301082402NCK
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260301080138VzD
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003155315
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-after-us-israel-strike-iran-issues-unforgettable-lesson-10-things-to-know/articleshow/128900888.cms
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/khamenei-killed-in-us-strike-who-are-his-potential-successors/articleshow/128898535.cms
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-iran-strike-heavy-and-pinpoint-bombing-will-continue-what-trump-wrote-as-he-announced-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128898991.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-leader-who-shaped-irans-defiance?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003154315
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633223-they-didnt-catch-iran-off-guard/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003153315
- [16] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003152315
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260228003151315
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-attack-iran-plume-of-smoke-rises-near-burj-khalifa-as-iran-missile-attack-hits-dubai-video-captures-chaos/articleshow/128894990.cms
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260301040750Sgd
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202603010443058D5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiywFBVV95cUxQeXIwVVpWbERtSnFRX3BjR042VUl2SmpmdnE0VzBHWU93UkxNMzF2dUFRdGVwcl90NHBXYllORG1OcGhGX1ZEZHltUERPWjVnZHpQX3ppLXJUcmFPS0dBVHFqdmV3WkhBdWVHeE1oZU90cUt3UHZCX2pCQkdPWkloSS1Fc3BGUnJOQ3NyWEpmcVNCTUhyUnJoS1NuT01qM2hQTnYzRXA1M1F1RUp2enBuaDg1SUJwYkFPME1XdkRvTndQYmRkMC1sWm9GOA?oc=5
- [22] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260228-en-direct-isra%C3%ABl-lance-une-attaque-pr%C3%A9ventive-contre-l-iran-d%C3%A9cr%C3%A8te-l-%C3%A9tat-d-urgence
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260228-live-israel-says-launched-preventive-strike-against-iran-declares-state-of-emergency
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNREtzcnNZRS1jT3FXeExGamY5ck55emtiMjBYVXpkbjQyT0FzZDRQcHFIMEVEbDFMRHUtMEs4MlZYUmdzZVUwZmJkQ3AxbGdGU1R4RXdLQ3hqX2ZlV0piZjJ0VFI0MFlkTzdvWjF3WnQxMGVsaVdQS2pfTlZzZmpuU1RvYlF5NS04NGxnb05ReXAySl9Zd1E?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxOYkVZQzRBSzJXaEM1WmhhRmN3LTRqUW93dzZ4bTA0WWRqNTlTZ2JsX0dQQUlOemN1MXZNSFd4bmdUOTlON3p3TVdOcXZ6MHpPRGhSRHFYSGZfX0FqNjVtTkxhLVMzN3JqWEJyY2pMb1VrLXJndldJOVpzXzhQZzF6UE1fY3NidDBaNk40SGhYNWRCaG9TMkhmZkVrU2RqXzBnd3FCQU9Icw?oc=5
- [26] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-strike-iran-what-happened?traffic_source=rss
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633237-has-wwiii-just-started-whats-happening-iran-israel-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g0pnnj8xyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [29] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-en-iran-aucun-moyen-de-cette-ampleur-n-avait-%C3%A9t%C3%A9-d%C3%A9ploy%C3%A9-depuis-2003
- [30] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260228-isra%C3%ABl-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-frappent-l-iran-comment-l-op%C3%A9ration-s-est-elle-d%C3%A9roul%C3%A9e
2026-02-28
2026-02-28
进展要点
- 美伊军事冲突风险上升，可能引发中东全面战争
- 北约核威慑部署引发俄罗斯反制，欧洲安全局势恶化
- 俄乌能源供应中断持续，影响欧洲能源安全与经济稳定
- 巴基斯坦-阿富汗公开战争状态，南亚冲突扩大化风险
- 美中在巴拿马运河港口搜查事件，贸易摩擦紧张升级
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力上升
欧洲核威慑 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产上涨
俄乌管道中断 / 能源安全担忧 / EUR和欧股承压
德国通胀下降 / 欧央行降息预期 / EUR下跌、德债上涨
来源
Times of India / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / The New York Times / Google News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dont-want-to-but-sometimes-you-have-to-trump-again-warns-iran-of-possible-military-action/articleshow/128861540.cms
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/633137-nordic-nations-host-nukes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-allows-staff-to-leave-israel-as-trump-attack-on-iran-looms/a-76157922?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/inflation-rate-faellt-ueberraschend-unter-zwei-prozent-marke-a-91486dcb-02d3-42ac-b7c4-cf9b68bbdbfd
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/633125-iran-us-talks-results/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/27/aje-onl-irn_genevatalks2026_av_v2-260226?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096330-war-update-57-clashes-on-front-line-since-morning-heaviest-fighting-in-huliaipole-sector.html
- [8] https://www.rt.com/news/633113-hungary-slovakia-druzhba-commission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/middleeast/us-embassy-jerusalem-authorized-departure.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096266-at-ramstein-ukraine-unveils-its-war-plan-secures-historic-partner-support-dm-fedorov.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPWmZ0NnBLOEhNMzdJUUlXWnhFdWRpLW10eG5OWHZCT2FHM0U2dzUyVTg2enNtM0Roblg4VHdmU0s1WUUwLUNxN3hFOGdIUEdnX0t5cFNXakdIM0s4dzNYdTRlRk1OemQ4bENPSGdvOWRfbnd6aG1qV2dxZVNZdWdFQkI5ajl5WW00ZmZxY1hab2o?oc=5
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/vp-vance-says-us-sees-222809233.html
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/hong-kong-linked-company-decries-search-of-panama-canal-port-offices?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.rt.com/news/633148-pentagon-anthropic-national-security-risk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [15] https://www.rt.com/news/633147-americans-warning-iran-rubio/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kriegserklaerung-von-pakistan-das-sind-die-hintergruende-zum-konflikt-zwischen-pakistan-und-den-taliban-a-4098daa5-213b-4876-87a9-e33eb8edd2bf
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/633141-iraq-militia-us-iran-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/633144-ukraine-shut-oil-pipeline-fico/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iaea-eyes-isfahan-nuclear-complex-as-it-urges-iran-to-allow?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/ukraine-claws-back-southern-territory-as-russias-war-enters-fifth-year?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633145-imf-approve-loan-kiev/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/israel-auswaertiges-amt-raet-dringend-von-reisen-ab-a-780a281e-d0b8-4b9f-9134-52e69a85d120
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQRC1jOE50RkxUYkw1YzVFamg3M0xOQjk4LVMzNmxJVTZMVEhqUGJMakVDbjBBaUJSVHVsUFc2V2EtVEtiMXlhd0VfNmNSY1pUV1BQbzd3VTRCTUZWOHdpdEdKOFNRbHp1ZkJTZGFrQ0JJWU9iUjVqSEdMQVVzaEJvS0I1b0RlZV9kQ0RKRmVsSFkyYjlsT3dNT2lFcVBkQjZkVlpjRFBVTlNiNFUxX3lzSA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/633139-us-wants-war-iran-ritter/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/marco-rubio-plans-israel-trip-as-trump-says-hes-not-happy-with-iran-talk?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633132-pakistan-and-afghanistan-are-at-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNNEJmUVJrMUpHUHZicWN1NlJHTmlYa3BfdXI4UTdDS3dhbDlGbFdzQzQ1MGxUYVU2ckxsT3FnSEl2eXdDRlozODAxZzgtMXJuUmItMVF5QThVcFllZ2dCa0xWLTVXemhfeHFKem11Rk5kV1RpUnE1WnNHVDBkMHZKTlJLSkIxWW15ZVgxOG5PUHplUGkyZGE4aGpocWFTYWo0S1VJYw?oc=5
- [28] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4096376-russian-army-attacks-three-districts-of-dnipropetrovsk-region-over-three-dozen-times-causing-damage.html
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/27/residents-describe-panic-as-pakistan-attacks-afghanistan-in-open?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/27/iran-says-us-must-drop-excessive-demands-in-nuclear-negotiations?traffic_source=rss
2026-02-27
2026-02-27
进展要点
- 伊朗核谈判僵局可能导致中东军事冲突升级，触发石油供应中断。
- 俄乌冲突中核威胁言论加剧，英法被指控密谋向乌克兰提供核材料，风险外溢至欧洲。
- 阿富汗-巴基斯坦边境冲突升级，区域不稳定影响中亚地缘安全。
- 中美贸易紧张持续，出口管制措施扩大可能引发报复性行动。
- 日本央行暗示加息以应对通胀，可能引发全球利率预期调整及日元升值压力。
- G7对乌克兰支持声明显示西方团结，但加剧与俄罗斯的对立，制裁风险上升。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌核威胁 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金上涨、股市下跌
中美贸易摩擦 / 供应链中断 / 避险资产需求 / 美元和黄金走强
日本央行加息暗示 / 日元升值 / 全球利率预期调整 / 套利交易逆转
来源
China News Service / Yahoo News - World / RT News / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / German Foreign Office Press Releases / KBS World News / German Federal Foreign Office
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577302.shtml
- [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-says-met-us-trade-104937996.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/633096-ukraine-nukes-france-uk-russia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202602270343599DY
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/boj-board-member-hints-at-rate-hikes-to-keep-ahead-of-inflation-risk
- [6] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/2757498-2757498
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227013818iIw
- [8] http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=199741
- [9] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2758258-2758258
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095967-war-update-120-combat-clashes-since-dawn-afu-have-success-in-northern-slobozhanshchyna-and-kursk-sectors.html
- [11] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/e4f19a798abdc080.html
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/633078-iran-and-united-states-met-geneva/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2026/02/24/declaration-des-dirigeants-du-g7-sur-la-guerre-en-ukraine
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/how-trumps-2026-iran-war-script-echoes-and-twists-the-2003-iraq-playbook?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577282.shtml
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577278.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577293.shtml
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-27/10577292.shtml
- [19] https://news.sky.com/story/significant-progress-in-us-iran-talks-but-no-deal-as-negotiations-to-resume-next-week-13512695
- [20] https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-fall-below-6-for-first-time-in-over-3-years-110032209.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/633101-iran-us-geneva-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-says-good-progress-in-us-talks-next-round-within-a-week/article70681431.ece
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260227065659cma
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghanistan-launches-military-strikes-on-pakistan-updates/article70681434.ece
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/2/26/iranian-foreign-minister-says-us-iran-moving-closer-to-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.rt.com/news/633087-thomas-penn-franco-british-nuke-plot-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [27] https://www.rt.com/news/633076-us-iran-nuclear-talks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/us-and-iran-meet-in-geneva-for-talks-amid-military-posturing/a-76128226?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4096039-next-round-of-peace-talks-to-be-held-in-abu-dhabi-in-early-march-zelensky.html
2026-02-26
2026-02-26
进展要点
- 中东冲突可能升级为全面战争，冲击全球石油供应和通胀。
- 俄乌冲突持续，可能外溢至邻国，影响欧洲安全和能源稳定。
- 美中贸易紧张加剧，引发全球供应链中断和经济增长放缓。
- 美国与古巴事件增加加勒比海地区紧张，潜在区域冲突。
- 伊朗核问题谈判失败可能触发军事行动，扩大中东不稳定。
- 欧洲对俄制裁升级，可能引发报复行动，加剧能源危机。
关联路径
中东紧张 / 石油供应中断 / 全球通胀上升 / 央行政策收紧
美国关税 / 全球贸易收缩 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突 / 地缘风险溢价 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨
BOJ宽松预期 / 日元贬值 / 亚洲货币压力 / 区域汇率波动
来源
RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/633038-us-f22-israel-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-nuclear-talks-deal-or-military-strike/a-76120548?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [3] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010600315
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260225010651315
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5VWWp2VmJHb0liMGVrZE5KMVFSTGdtcnZmWFJGc3BYNllRZTBuQmIzMHRteEZhaWJRem8xeTdPWTJlbXAzMzhtUkVOUEt2c0VlZGNaaHBtTU05UDhlXzRIQ2NBS3NpUkZkdHlUTVAwQmo?oc=5
- [6] https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/bank-of-japan/japan-picks-reflationists-for-boj-board-echoing-takaichi-s-policy-view
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/us-issues-new-sanctions-as-it-dials-up-pressure-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-trump-lays-out-case-for-possible-attack-on-iran-in-state-of-the-union-address
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge821xwyz8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/7e819bdee446797a.html
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260225214248P2A
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/2/25/four-years-into-the-ukraine-war-moscow-sees-vindication-not-failure?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/bJ0L6pzhsU8kjJi3lMFRi
- [14] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/tech/semiconductors/nvidia-reports-73-revenue-jump-but-warns-on-china-uncertainties
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/kuba-grenztruppen-greifen-us-schnellboot-an-vier-tote-a-8d7b55c4-a9e2-4b05-96f5-ad2e4b8dbbd4
- [17] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095617-ukraine-insists-at-un-on-ceasefire-as-basis-for-peace-talks-betsa-says.html
- [18] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-roughly-2-week-low-against-us-dollar-on-boj-board-picks
- [19] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/business/trump-tariffs-refunds-lawsuits.html
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/le-d%C3%A9bat/20260225-discours-sur-l-%C3%A9tat-de-l-union-de-d-trump-l-am%C3%A9rique-d-abord-%C3%A0-quel-prix
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cant-let-craziest-regime-to-have-nuclear-weapons-jd-vance-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-in-geneva/articleshow/128791664.cms
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095557-general-staff-confirms-strikes-on-russian-s400-triumf-pantsir-and-grad-systems-in-occupied-territories.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260225-iran-us-talks-set-to-resume-in-geneva-as-trump-ups-pressure
- [24] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/world/asia/china-germany-merz-visit-xi.html
- [25] https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/Jim-Chalmers-2022/media-releases/Inflation-steady-in-January
- [26] https://news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/O5M0QLVwbVE7A1uwQIJj-
- [27] https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2757258-2757258
- [28] https://www.rt.com/news/633024-iran-nuclear-trump-accusations/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [29] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxQWWhpcEY4Rk1HMUE1S2dFd1pGcVRZQ1hibjl1WXBqamtRaXhyam1XbVE0Y1RoTkhWSFYwQVpPbFFJM21NTXZPdFd4cWtTMmlPdjE2V3ktd3dLXzIzNnlQMFpCNnVQVlZFUndQQnVGTWd5Tk5rWFkzME5IMVdaVnU1RmxmTHI?oc=5
- [30] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxNSFc3VlA2cG5id0ZOQ0dxemtYc2VhSkJtZVg4ZzZhaU5XMzVTOVRxMnRNQ01TNTgzTG84UjdQZHJLaW9lQi1uNjY2ckN5NGpvNmthWjZ1ZG5BWklKRl9hVTBsSWFaY1M5aW9xblZXdVNKTGI4OUxoR3VKcjlmeGRwVlh4QlhEZDl3UnByVUFEc044dnI2cGVBTUZyM2lhYjFWa0ZMWVBaRmgtZU96VUh0Tkcxdw?oc=5
2026-02-25
2026-02-25
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙可能引发中东冲突升级，威胁全球能源供应。
- 俄乌战争持续，能源和粮食供应风险增加，通胀压力上升。
- 台湾问题紧张导致中日关系恶化，区域稳定受挑战。
- 匈牙利等欧盟内部分歧影响对俄制裁执行，削弱西方团结。
- 伊朗寻求中国高技术武器，可能加剧美中在中东的博弈。
- 斯洛伐克中断对乌克兰电力供应，反映能源争端扩大化。
关联路径
美伊紧张升级 / 中东供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌战争持续 / 能源和粮食供应担忧 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
美国关税政策波动 / 贸易不确定性 / 全球增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
涉台紧张 / 区域风险升级 / 避险情绪 / 日元和黄金需求增加
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Fed / State Duma of Russia - News / German Federal Government News / ANTARA News / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576199.shtml
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576183.shtml
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/2/24/state-of-the-union-live-trump-to-address-nation-amid-tariff-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQR0dENGtNRnNpRjFmX0UzLW5YbW1pRE5sdjN1S3VpbkhfcC1FV2p3V3dtZlN1cGk4UVN6R05ockNfT3QyVGZtNHd5cV9wZnBVRDBqbDlBS1FXdV80Y0J3dmpfWVNPdHF4eVRoLTRLQWNnX2RvMVJEdjN2NEpLa3RLR25iM1VrS1dWb0w5OXBfcnRkdllJcHp4NExoYTk0OXQybXdCQ1kzUGdjSlhL?oc=5
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQbXAxc2wwZEZXQjdxSnVZZXNmVVdDSzc0NzdGYXFzNDEzS1lUQ19QaXJtZ3lSV3U0bDBYNWNPQV9ndFZWU1REaUJLVWZaMTFFajJBOG9wT2VMSUM2LTJ2a0FzakVwY19vSlAwQkptQTAwZGdzdzQ4Vms1OHoxVm16NHJfa2FnaEtRay1FYlVJcGRDcnh3blZjdDJ4OV9WLXQ0WWRHVVMzX2V2bE5jMVJDYnZETQ?oc=5
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNb2VFeXBiRnh2UFlkampWRER5cThwZHZUQ2Z3VGlRaW44Sk4wYVA4Tm1qX0d2VGJIN0lpTjY3Q2dYcVY3cHo3dnptN0JyWE9zRmtlWFZUXzZPZlRQMEF5dmhwZ2VBQmdiZDQ4T082RDVCaDVWSmNsVktrUGoySWVMSTNnNWV3WVZOVXZYWTFhODZnMGxBQ3pDcW5IMW9FaWoxOGRCYzFXRFc5UFHSAbABQVVfeXFMTmxDb21QY2d6LUQyc3lCYXRXaWNOeklZUV9LVHNJazJvZVFpWTN4WWRtd19XYXZKUmNzUkVxbVFZLVJqX3RieW5vNDZfYVpKNFBRU3RheUU4RlNPSXBuZU1GMVpwMWlXMmF5MEw2QXBDYXpMUUtqZ3l4bVplN09haWU1MW5pWnlzdjVjb2xyRmhVakRsQ3BRLURKWkE3ZHBESmpPb1VxMjZ
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxNMVoxQzM1QW93QTNXV0R2RzB1ZWVyLWI0VW9FSHlKWk5FUTB0YkpNc2lCNTFHd01ZOTNQUEhpQXFQWXY3VHlzMUVudHdvdUFDNFZmWjFSdVp5bGUwejNUWXppTTJNbHN3SURJTzcwSVNrenpodjFpMUN0THlOQ0FhZkx0aHl2cTg0d21iS1lLLXYtcUJCaFExVlJVR1VLblQ4SlprdFI4c3dSLUZjSGFmUkx0OV90MUVGcnYwUWFYZmdTeUE5?oc=5
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE9yc1hKTEpwV3h5SkMwTjVFUmY0Q3d3blo0TWNXMzAwajlnb1dMOUZCTGVaeGxkUUFCcm8wRUZrel80VWZOUlBudzJiS2NzTWZKMkJ2MQ?oc=5
- [9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260224a.htm
- [10] http://duma.gov.ru/en/news
- [11] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/co-chairs-statement-coalition-of-the-willing-call-24-february-2026-2408478
- [12] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5435854/china-desak-as-hentikan-tarif-global-sepihak-baru-10-persen
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/632991-kallas-russian-assets-theft/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4095073-war-update-50-clashes-on-front-line-fighting-continues-in-four-sectors.html
- [15] https://www.dw.com/de/usa-und-iran-säbelrasseln-im-atomstreit/a-76106219?maca=de-rss-de-news-1089-xml-mrss
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxPSGZtcGVJc3QwQS1xVW4wUHNCM2FYVzZLWTZ2Zk90elNHSVBYdXVuVGxMN0lOQTJWa2Fzc0tueFlSSHFlaFp3RjUtekFGUkpWLVlWNTZjTVpESlpRM3lOWFFTb0hxZExGOHhqVm9xY0NDQ0dkODFSVnUtV2hLbW5FbNIBhgFBVV95cUxQbFpwMmxVMk1TT3RJU3ZlYlRqd1g2cTVoT3p1YlVSczZ1aXVmaGZsY3NZNzN0M3FCbl9oNDFVa1kxTDlfOWk5X2pqUTZFbXcxclo5dVpWbGgtNHluR0ZxeUVwZ3V1NWstQ2lPY0JjRHNnb09mRFh1Vm1BYndDck9HYnZ4ZG1DUQ?oc=5
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1038942/trump-jajaki-skema-tarif-baru-usai-putusan-mahkamah-agung-as
- [18] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/04ff54e9ab07efbd.html
- [19] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/01180e362b158f46.html
- [20] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/d83e4d3bb21cdefc.html
- [21] https://www.rt.com/news/632957-trump-iran-bad-day/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [22] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4094965-ukrainian-forces-strike-russian-logistics-command-posts-atacms-missiles-hit-targets.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576184.shtml
- [24] https://news.sky.com/story/european-leaders-came-together-in-solidarity-on-ukraine-war-fourth-anniversary-but-peace-seems-a-long-way-off-13511729
- [25] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/02-25/10576177.shtml
- [26] https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4095209-nordic-baltic-countries-to-provide-eur-125b-in-defense-support-to-ukraine-zelensky.html
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/russia-has-not-won-as-ukraine-war-enters-fifth-year-zelenskyy-says?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/tech-asia/china-aims-for-5-fold-increase-in-advanced-chip-output-to-meet-ai-demand
- [29] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-take-2/2026/2/24/what-to-expect-from-trumps-state-of-the-union-address-2?traffic_source=rss
- [30] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/02/23/42411
2026-02-24
2026-02-24
进展要点
- 特朗普关税政策可能引发全球贸易战，损害经济增长。
- 美伊军事冲突风险上升，威胁中东地区稳定和石油供应。
- 俄乌战争持续，匈牙利否决欧盟援助加剧欧洲内部分裂。
- AI技术恐慌可能打击科技行业，引发市场波动。
- 美国外交政策反复无常，增加全球不确定性。
- 欧盟团结面临挑战，影响对外政策协调。
关联路径
关税威胁 / 全球贸易不确定性 / 股市下跌和避险资产上涨
美伊冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀担忧
欧盟内部分歧 / 乌克兰援助延迟 / 欧元承压和能源紧张
AI技术恐慌 / 科技股抛售 / 市场情绪恶化
来源
ABC News / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://abcnews.com/Business/stocks-tick-lower-after-trump-ratchets-tariffs/story?id=130407007
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/info-%C3%A9co/20260223-l-ue-suspend-la-mise-en-oeuvre-de-son-accord-commercial-avec-les-etats-unis
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260223-eu-hits-pause-on-trade-deal-with-us-trump-warns-countries-not-to-play-games-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224085849AAo
- [5] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224090135XIg
- [6] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084544ukS
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224084052pwz
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-secretary-initiated-january-s-yen-dollar-rate-check-sources
- [9] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224073233Pgh
- [10] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/questions-directes/20260223-trump-menace-une-nouvelle-escalade
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-says-he-ll-raise-tariffs-to-15-after-supreme-court-ruling
- [12] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20260223-why-the-threat-of-bombing-campaign-trump-s-iran-gambit
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260224065241EuW
- [14] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260224/84374dde8fbd4226aa8c5a424796e21a/c.html
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224062855mu7
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/2/23/are-the-us-and-iran-moving-closer-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/23/trumps-new-tariff-threats-trigger-economic-uncertainty-trade-deals-stall?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/632935-hungary-ukraine-loan-veto/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.dw.com/de/zeitenwende-an-der-front-vier-jahre-krieg-in-der-ukraine/a-76058071?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/eu-sanctions-russian-officials-as-hungary-blocks-funds-to-ukraine?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260224024633GH2
- [22] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rv212wwyo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-unimaginable-force-iran-attacks-180831400.html
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/23/iran-banks-big-on-murky-oil-trustees-as-war-with-us-on-the-horizon?traffic_source=rss
- [25] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260223-iran-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-sous-la-menace-d-une-frappe-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-hungary-blocks-eu-ukraine-loan-russia-sanctions-on-eve-of-war-anniversary
- [27] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5433530/ancam-kenakan-tarif-lebih-tinggi-trump-sebut-tak-perlu-restu-kongres
- [28] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-us-trade-deals-thrown-into-doubt-after-trump-s-new-tariffs
- [29] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260223-ukraine-europe-on-the-front-line
- [30] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260223-nervous-times-in-tehran-ahead-of-crunch-us-talks-and-strike-threat
2026-02-23
2026-02-23
进展要点
- 美伊军事冲突风险急剧升高，可能引爆霍尔木兹海峡危机，冲击全球三分之一的海运石油贸易。
- 俄乌冲突临近四周年节点，战事激烈化与普京核表态加剧东欧安全危机。
- 美国301条款调查可能引发新一轮针对性的贸易摩擦，韩国、日本等盟友亦可能被卷入。
- 朝鲜领导人金正恩连任总书记并强调核武力建设，半岛紧张局势暗流涌动。
- 匈牙利等国阻碍欧盟对俄统一制裁，暴露欧盟内部在应对俄乌冲突上的深刻分歧。
- 伊朗国内反政府示威再起，内部动荡可能加剧其对外强硬姿态，增加误判风险。
关联路径
美国关税提高至15% / 全球贸易成本激增 & 供应链扰动 / 企业利润下调 & 经济增长预期恶化 / 全球股市（尤其出口国）& 周期类资产下跌。
美伊 / 俄乌地缘风险升级 / 石油供应中断风险溢价上升 & 避险情绪高涨 / 油价 & 黄金 & 美元同步上涨 / 风险资产（股票、公司债）遭抛售。
美国301条款调查启动 / 特定国家（如中国、巴西）及行业（如半导体、汽车）面临精准打击风险 / 相关国家货币、股市及行业ETF波动加剧。
欧盟对俄制裁内部分歧（匈牙利阻挠） / 削弱对乌支持效力 & 暴露欧盟政治裂痕 / 欧元汇率承压 & 欧洲资产风险溢价上升。
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The New York Times
2026-02-22
2026-02-22
进展要点
- 特朗普关税上调可能引发全球贸易战，损害经济增长并加剧通胀压力。
- 俄乌冲突升级至俄罗斯境内导弹工厂，增加冲突扩散和能源中断风险。
- 中东美伊对峙可能演变为军事冲突，威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运安全。
- 欧盟内部在乌克兰援助和能源问题上分歧（如斯洛伐克威胁），削弱团结应对能力。
- 伊朗与欧盟关系紧张，制裁与反制裁措施可能加剧地区不稳定。
- 以色列与黎巴嫩冲突升级，增加中东更广泛冲突的可能性。
- 全球多地地缘热点叠加，推高系统性风险溢价。
关联路径
全球关税上调 / 贸易成本增加 / 经济增长放缓 / 风险资产下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力上升
中东紧张加剧 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强 / 股市承压
政策不确定性 / 市场波动加剧 / 资本流向安全资产
来源
Yonhap News TV / Xinhua World / China News Service / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Sky News / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top)
2026-02-21
2026-02-21
进展要点
- 特朗普新全球关税可能引发全球贸易战，增加经济不确定性。
- 美伊军事冲突风险上升，若爆发可能扰乱中东石油供应。
- 俄乌冲突持续，匈牙利阻止欧盟援助加剧乌克兰资金短缺风险。
- 以色列与黎巴嫩真主党冲突升级，可能触发更广泛地区战争。
- 美国强化对古巴封锁并考虑军事干预，增加拉美不稳定因素。
- 欧盟内部分歧加深，如匈牙利阻挠对乌贷款，削弱共同外交立场。
关联路径
特朗普新全球关税 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长担忧 / 避险资产上涨
美伊军事紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应风险 / 油价和黄金上涨
通胀超预期 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 股市承压
欧盟对乌援助受阻 / 地缘风险上升 / 避险情绪 / 黄金和美元需求增加
来源
Nikkei Asia / RT News / ABC News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business)
2026-02-20
2026-02-20
进展要点
- 中东冲突升级可能导致石油供应中断，加剧全球通胀风险。
- 俄乌战事持续引发区域不稳定，切尔诺贝利核电站仍处战区增加安全担忧。
- 美伊对峙加剧核扩散风险，伊朗若反击可能升级为更广泛冲突。
- 以色列空袭黎巴嫩真主党据点，违反脆弱停火协议（RT News）。
- 联合国报告警示加沙与西岸种族清洗风险，国际压力上升（UN News）。
- 英国拒绝美国使用基地打击伊朗，显示盟友分歧（Sky News）。
- 特朗普延长对俄制裁一年，地缘紧张加剧（Ukrinform）。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 风险资产承压
俄乌会谈进展 / 地缘风险降低 / 风险资产反弹 / 避险需求下降
美联储政策不确定性 / 美元走弱 / 黄金和外汇市场波动
贸易逆差扩大 / 关税政策失效担忧 / 股市下跌 / 避险情绪上升
来源
Xinhua World / ABC News / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / UN News / Yahoo News - World / Sky News
2026-02-19
2026-02-19
进展要点
- 伊朗核谈判破裂，美国军事集结，双方擦枪走火风险急剧升高（据RT新闻、德国之声报道）。
- 俄乌和平谈判破裂，前线战事加剧，能源运输成为新博弈工具（据ABC新闻、RT新闻报道）。
- 以色列西岸土地登记行动引发国际谴责，可能激化巴以及以阿（阿联酋、沙特等）矛盾（据《华盛顿邮报》报道）。
- 俄中伊举行联合海军演习（据RT新闻报道），展示对抗姿态，可能加剧海上通道（霍尔木兹海峡）紧张。
- 美俄《新削减战略武器条约》失效后无正式协议约束，战略核风险长期存在（据RT新闻报道）。
- 欧盟强化“无人机墙”计划，北约推进“东翼威慑线”，欧俄军事对峙升级（据RT新闻报道）。
- 英国在慕尼黑安全会议推动欧洲军事化，与美国政策存在温差（据RT新闻报道）。
- 匈牙利、斯洛伐克与乌克兰的能源争端可能外溢至欧盟内部团结问题（据Euronews、雅虎新闻报道）。
关联路径
中东 / 俄乌冲突升级 / 石油 / 天然气供应风险 / 全球通胀预期升温 / 央行政策预期转鹰 / 利率敏感型资产（成长股、债券）承压
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪 / 资金流向黄金、美元、美债 / 风险资产（新兴市场货币、欧股）承压
能源危机风险（欧洲） / EUR区增长与通胀前景恶化 / EUR贬值 / 美元被动走强
美联储政策信号（纪要） / 全球流动性预期调整 / 风险资产估值重估
来源
Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / RT News / Fed / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Xinhua Finance
2026-02-18
2026-02-18
进展要点
- 美伊谈判破裂可能导致中东战争风险上升
- 霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁全球石油供应链
- 俄乌冲突扩大或引发更广泛军事对抗
- 美中核试验指控加剧核不扩散紧张关系
- 伊朗军事演习可能误判引发地区冲突
- 欧洲对俄乌会谈跟进但紧张持续，影响地区稳定
- 印度扣押伊朗油轮可能加剧制裁执行风险
关联路径
美伊谈判紧张 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期上升 / 央行政策调整
俄乌战事升级 / 避险资产需求增加 / 黄金和美元上涨 / 股市下跌
美中紧张关系 / 全球贸易风险 / 避险情绪上升 / 资产波动加剧
2026-02-15
2026-02-15
进展要点
- 中东爆发大规模军事冲突：美伊双方军事准备就绪，任何误判或谈判破裂都可能引爆战争。
- 俄乌冲突外溢或升级：针对能源基础设施的打击可能引发更广泛的人道与能源危机，冲突有扩大风险。
- 核军备竞赛与战略误判：在缺乏条约约束下，大国核现代化竞争加剧，危机中动用核武器的风险升高。
- 跨大西洋联盟实质性分裂：欧美在安全、贸易及对俄/对华政策上的分歧可能削弱西方集体行动能力。
- 亚洲紧张局势升级：中国外长王毅在慕安会就台湾问题严厉警告日本，显示亚太地缘摩擦点升温。
- 欧洲内部因战争负担与战略自主路径产生分歧，可能影响欧盟凝聚力。
- 针对关键基础设施（能源、数字）的混合战争与网络攻击风险上升。
- 制裁与反制裁螺旋导致全球经济进一步割裂，增加交易与合规成本。
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡航运风险 / 原油供应预期收紧 / 油价飙升 / 全球通胀预期重估 / 央行政策更谨慎 / 风险资产重定价
美欧战略分歧 / 全球政策碎片化 / 贸易与投资不确定性上升 / 增长预期下调 / 企业盈利承压 / 股市估值压缩
俄乌冲突持续 / 升级 / 欧洲能源安全担忧 + 国防开支大增 / 欧元区滞胀压力 / 欧央行政策困境 / EUR疲软 & 欧洲股市相对弱势
核军控失效 + 多地冲突 / 系统性风险溢价永久性上升 / 长期避险资产（黄金、部分国债）配置价值重估 / 风险资产长期估值中枢下移
2026-02-14
2026-02-14
进展要点
- 中东航母部署可能触发伊朗报复，升级为军事冲突
- 俄乌前线冲突持续，和谈若失败可能扩大战事
- 德国核武讨论不再禁忌，加剧欧洲安全紧张
- 美国对古巴石油制裁导致人道危机，可能引发区域不稳定
- 中美关系虽缓和，但制裁动态（如国防部撤回名单）显示潜在摩擦
- 波兰主张欧洲参与乌克兰和谈，暴露美欧政策分歧
关联路径
中东军事升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨 / 通胀压力
美国CPI降温 / 美联储降息预期 / 股市上涨 / 美元走弱
俄乌冲突 / 黑海航运风险 / 全球粮食和能源供应波动
欧洲政治紧张 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强
2026-02-13
2026-02-13
进展要点
- 俄乌冲突升级，核军控失效增加核竞赛和全球战略不稳定风险。
- 中东紧张局势加剧，美伊对抗可能引发石油供应中断和区域代理冲突。
- 北约内部分歧暴露，美欧关系紧张影响跨大西洋安全和防卫合作。
- 美国对伊朗和俄罗斯的强硬立场可能升级为直接军事冲突。
- 中东阵营分裂，土耳其、沙特等重组联盟，增加区域安全复杂性。
- 欧洲面临美俄双重压力，自主防卫能力不足可能加剧安全真空。
关联路径
俄乌地缘紧张 / 避险资产需求上升 / 黄金和美元走强
中东冲突升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和通胀压力
美国金融危机信号 / 安全港需求变化 / 贵金属价格暴跌
AI担忧加剧 / 科技股抛售 / 全球股市避险情绪
2026-02-12
2026-02-12
进展要点
- 伊朗核谈判僵局增加中东冲突风险。
- 俄乌战争升级，日伤亡高企。
- 美军在伊朗附近集结，预示潜在对抗。
- 欧盟对俄原油制裁分歧威胁能源市场稳定。
- 北约北极任务加剧与俄中紧张关系。
- 美国调整关税应对俄罗斯威胁，引发贸易紧张。
关联路径
强劲美国就业 / 美联储鹰派预期 / 美元↑、利率↑
伊朗紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 油价↑、黄金↑
俄乌升级 / 能源供应风险 / 大宗商品↑
欧盟改革 / 增长乐观 / 欧元↑、股市↑
2026-02-11
2026-02-11
进展要点
- 美伊军事冲突直接爆发风险
- 伊朗不对称报复（如袭击中东美军基地或关闭霍尔木兹海峡）
- 俄乌冲突外溢至北约国家风险
- 台海紧张因台湾部署美国导弹系统升级
- 美国与欧盟贸易摩擦加剧（马克龙警告）
- 北约内部防务责任转移引发联盟紧张
- 泰国大选后外交路线摇摆影响美中在东南亚竞争
- 美国在加勒比海封锁油轮，制裁行动升级
关联路径
美伊军事升级 / 中东石油供应中断 / 全球油价飙升 / 通胀压力上升
俄乌冲突升级 / 欧洲能源危机深化 / 工业活动放缓 / 欧元区衰退风险
美国关税政策不确定性 / 全球贸易成本上升 / 增长预期下调 / 风险资产抛售
台海紧张 / 科技供应链中断风险 / 半导体板块波动 / 全球风险情绪恶化
2026-02-10
2026-02-10
进展要点
- 美伊谈判失败导致中东全面战争，波及石油供应
- 俄乌冲突升级引发更广泛欧洲安全危机
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运中断风险，推高全球油价
- 以色列西岸行动激化巴以冲突，国际制裁可能
- 中美贸易摩擦加剧，全球供应链受冲击
- 北极资源争夺（如格陵兰）引发美中俄地缘竞争
- 委内瑞拉局势动荡，美国制裁影响石油出口
- 朝鲜可能利用美俄核条约终止提升核威慑
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 霍尔木兹海峡风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突持续 / 能源供应中断 / 避险资产需求 / 黄金和美元走强
中美贸易摩擦 / 关税威胁 / 风险资产抛售 / 日元和瑞郎升值
中国减持美债 / 美债收益率上升 / 美元贬值 / 新兴市场货币压力
2026-02-09
2026-02-09
进展要点
- 俄乌冲突升级可能导致更广泛军事对抗或谈判彻底破裂
- 伊朗核僵局若恶化，可能引发中东地区冲突或石油供应中断
- 日本修宪进程可能加剧与中韩的领土和历史争端，影响亚洲稳定
- 以色列西岸政策调整可能激化巴以冲突，破坏地区和平努力
- 美日同盟强化可能刺激中国反弹，增加印太紧张
关联路径
地缘政治紧张 / 避险情绪上升 / 黄金、美元需求增加
中东冲突 / 石油供应担忧 / 油价波动并影响通胀预期
日本政策变化 / 亚洲地区风险 / 资产价格调整和汇率波动
谈判僵局 / 不确定性升高 / 全球资本流向避险资产
2026-02-08
2026-02-08
进展要点
- Russia-Ukraine war escalation with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, increasing humanitarian and supply chain disruptions.
- Iran-US tensions heightening with mutual threats and sanctions, risking broader Middle East conflict.
- EU unity erosion as Hungary opposes energy sanctions on Russia, complicating collective action.
- Nuclear disarmament crisis with US-Russia treaty expiration and US push to include China, raising arms race fears.
- Trade policy volatility with US tariffs on Iran traders and ongoing US-China trade disputes impacting global stability.
- Middle East proxy conflicts persisting, e.g., Israel-Hamas clashes, adding to regional instability.
关联路径
EU sanctions on Russia / Russian oil supply constraints / Global oil price increase / Inflationary pressures / Central bank policy responses
Middle East tensions / Iran threats and US actions / Oil market volatility / Risk-off sentiment / Safe-haven asset flows
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation / Energy infrastructure damage / European gas supply risks / Economic growth concerns / Equity market sell-offs
US-India trade deal / Tariff reductions / Improved trade sentiment / Regional equity gains (e.g., Indian markets) / Broader EM optimism
2026-02-07
2026-02-07
进展要点
- 美伊关系紧张：谈判后美国立即制裁，可能引发中东不稳定和石油供应中断。
- 俄乌冲突升级：前线交火加剧，核安全风险增加，可能扩大冲突范围。
- 中美台湾问题：军售争议可能加剧双边关系紧张，影响全球贸易。
- 中国对日出口限制：稀土供应风险，推高关键商品价格。
- 欧盟对俄制裁：第20轮制裁可能进一步扰乱能源市场，加剧通胀压力。
- 核安全威胁：IAEA警告乌克兰战争威胁核设施，增加区域灾难风险。
关联路径
美股反弹 / 全球风险情绪改善 / 风险资产上涨，美元波动
美伊制裁 / 中东紧张 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨，通胀预期升
俄乌冲突 / 避险需求增加 / 黄金和美元走强， equities受压
中美紧张 / 安全港需求 / USD / Gold up，贸易流调整
2026-02-06
2026-02-06
进展要点
- 美俄核军控失效，可能引发核军备竞赛和全球核扩散风险
- 中东伊朗军事行动升级，波斯湾航运风险增加，美伊谈判破裂风险高
- 乌克兰冲突持续，和平谈判陷入僵局，地缘风险不减
- 美国对韩国加征关税，贸易紧张局势加剧
关联路径
美俄军控失效 / 地缘紧张升级 / 避险资产需求上升
美联储鹰派信号 / 美元走强 / 金银价格下跌
中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨 / 通胀预期变化
股市抛售 / 避险情绪升温 / 美元和黄金需求
2026-02-05
2026-02-05
进展要点
- 俄乌核军控条约失效，可能引发新一轮军备竞赛，增加全球安全不确定性。
- 中东美伊会谈前景不明，加沙冲突持续，有升级为地区战争的风险。
- 北约北极军事部署加剧与俄罗斯对峙，可能影响能源通道和北极资源竞争。
- 美国施压中国与伊朗脱钩，若中国拒绝，可能加剧美中贸易和技术争端。
- 俄罗斯油气收入下降和预算赤字扩大，可能迫使其采取更激进外交或军事行动。
- 乌克兰能源基础设施遭破坏，冬季人道危机恶化，可能拖累欧洲经济和政治稳定。
关联路径
地缘冲突升级 / 能源供应中断 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
外交谈判进展 / 风险偏好改善 / 股市反弹和避险资产回调
央行鸽派信号 / 货币贬值 / 出口竞争力和资本流动变化
制裁和脱钩政策 / 供应链重组 / 商品价格波动和贸易摩擦
2026-02-04
2026-02-04
进展要点
- 美伊军事对峙可能升级为直接冲突，影响中东稳定。
- 俄乌冲突在和平谈判前暴力加剧，增加外交失败风险。
- 霍尔木兹海峡航运干扰威胁全球石油供应。
- 美俄核条约到期，可能引发新一轮军备竞赛。
- 印美贸易协议若执行，可能扰动俄罗斯石油出口和市场平衡。
- 韩美关税讨论显示贸易保护主义风险持续。
关联路径
中东地缘紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 油价上涨和避险资产需求
俄乌冲突加剧 / 欧洲能源危机风险 / 黄金和美元走强
美国政府停摆结束 / 财政不确定性降低 / 风险资产短期支撑
贸易协议调整 / 全球供应链重塑 / 商品价格和汇率波动
2026-02-03
2026-02-03
进展要点
- 俄乌战争升级，攻击民用基础设施和交通路线，增加人道危机风险。
- 美伊对抗可能演变为军事冲突，扰乱中东石油供应。
- 美中贸易摩擦持续，潜在关税升级影响全球供应链。
- 美国政府停摆风险增加政策不确定性，影响经济数据发布。
- 俄罗斯与西方制裁战加剧，地缘经济碎片化。
- 能源市场受地缘事件驱动，价格波动放大。
关联路径
美联储鹰派预期 / 全球风险规避 / 股市、大宗商品同步下跌
俄乌冲突升级 / 能源供应中断风险 / 油价波动与避险资产需求
美印贸易协议 / 关税降低 / 改善双边贸易与风险情绪
美伊紧张 / 中东不稳定 / 石油供应恐惧与地缘风险溢价
2026-02-02
2026-02-02
进展要点
- 美伊谈判破裂可能导致中东军事冲突升级，影响石油供应。
- 俄乌冲突外溢风险，如攻击北约国家或能源基础设施。
- 以色列空袭加沙可能破坏停火协议，引发更广泛中东动荡。
- 中俄战略合作增强，可能加剧西方与中俄的地缘政治对抗。
- 朝鲜半岛局势未提及，但需监控潜在挑衅行为。
- 印度预算案导致股市暴跌，可能反映新兴市场政策风险。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应中断风险 / 油价上涨 / 全球通胀压力
俄乌冲突加剧 / 地缘政治不确定性 / 避险资产（黄金、美元）需求增加
美联储鹰派预期 / 美元走强 / 新兴市场货币贬值和资本外流
OPEC+产量不变 / 原油供应受限 / 能源价格上涨 / 企业成本上升
2026-02-01
2026-02-01
进展要点
- 美伊紧张升级可能引发中东石油供应中断。
- 俄乌冲突持续，停火协议脆弱，风险外溢至欧洲。
- 南海紧张，中国在黄岩岛进行战备警巡。
- 美国对委内瑞拉石油控制权不确定性。
- 美国关税威胁影响韩国等盟友贸易关系。
- 中东冲突可能扩散，影响全球航运通道。
关联路径
Fed chair nomination / monetary policy uncertainty / global risk repricing
Middle East tensions / oil supply risk / inflation and safe-haven demand
U.S. government shutdown / policy instability / market volatility
Russia-Ukraine conflict / geopolitical risk / gold and USD appreciation
2026-01-31
2026-01-31
进展要点
- 伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的军演可能威胁全球石油运输。
- 欧盟制裁伊朗革命卫队可能引发报复行动。
- 以色列-加沙冲突持续，死亡人数高达7万。
- 南非与以色列外交争端升级。
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰战争构成核安全威胁。
- 美国-中国贸易争端因WTO裁决而加剧。
关联路径
中东紧张升级 / 石油供应风险 / 通胀压力 / 央行响应
美联储政策转向 / 利率下降 / 美元走弱 / 新兴市场资金流
地缘政治风险 / 避险需求 / 黄金和美元走强
贸易争端 / 供应链中断 / 全球增长担忧