THEME TIMELINE
Supply Impact
Escalating: After Kazakhstan lowered crude output due to terminal suspension, drone strikes caused export disruptions, adding to energy market supply pressure.; Drone strikes disrupt Kazakhstan oil exports, energy markets under pressure (Al Jazeera Middle East). Key events: Drone strikes disrupt Kazakhstan oil exports (Al Jazeera Middle East); Houthis attack Saudi Aramco oil facilities (UNN) Watch: The timeline for Kazakhstan export recovery is unclear, and Strait of Hormuz risks persist, potentially tightening global crude supply further.
SOURCE COVERAGE
Source Coverage
Latest Update: 2026-07-27
Sources
74
Mainland
5
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
69
Official
6
Non-official
68
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
72
Chinese
5
English
39
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
China News Service · Mainland / OfficialYonhap News TV · Overseas / MediaAl Jazeera Middle East · Overseas / MediaUkrainian National News (UNN) - Politics · Overseas / MediaPOLITICO Europe · Overseas / MediaNikkei Asia · Overseas / CommercialValor Econômico Politics · Overseas / MediaGoogle News - World · Overseas / AggregatorThe Hindu · Overseas / MediaRT News · Overseas / MediaO Globo Politics · Overseas / MediaYahoo News - World · Overseas / Aggregator
Source samples reflect configured metadata and references in this report. They are for traceability, not endorsement or investment advice.
COVERAGE GAPS
Coverage Gaps
Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARNIn this window, overseas sources = 69, mainland sources = 5.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARNIn this window, English-language sources = 39, Chinese-language sources = 5.
RESEARCH PROJECTION
Research Projection
Linked products: ZC Thermal Coal / EC Europe Container Shipping / SC Crude Oil / CU Copper / PG LPG / AU Gold
Tracking status: active 36 / review due 18 / reviewed 18
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest checkpoints
- SC 2y · active · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · active · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 6m · active · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 3m · active · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-07-27
2026-07-27
Updates
- Escalating: After Kazakhstan lowered crude output due to terminal suspension, drone strikes caused export disruptions, adding to energy market supply pressure.
- Drone strikes disrupt Kazakhstan oil exports, energy markets under pressure (Al Jazeera Middle East).
- Houthis attack Saudi oil facilities, targeting Saudi Aramco in Jizan and Yanbu (UNN).
Key Events
- Drone strikes disrupt Kazakhstan oil exports (Al Jazeera Middle East)
- Houthis attack Saudi Aramco oil facilities (UNN)
Watch / Outlook
The timeline for Kazakhstan export recovery is unclear, and Strait of Hormuz risks persist, potentially tightening global crude supply further.
Linkage
Drone strikes / Kazakhstan export disruption / Global crude supply tightening
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / The Hindu / RT News / O Globo Politics / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727064751ZaW
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/us-and-iran-hit-pause-on-strikes-for-second-day?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-nakazav-pryzupynyty-udary-ssha-po-iranu-dlia-dyplomatychnykh-perehovoriv
- [4] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/25/iran-war-gulf-alliance-01012083?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/trading-asia/boj-early-rate-rise-bets-increase-as-yen-reaches-multidecade-low
- [6] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-e-ira-estendem-pausa-nos-ataques-enquanto-oma-realiza-negociacoes-sobre-ormuz.ghtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE4yUGQyOU5oLVZvX0t4bWI3dVo0R3ZaSHNoS0t1SEl0bjZHLVNTejIyeEVXMnZraDhBUE5kanFxYkU0ZHR2c2JEVzc0ZUR0MV9GMkg0U0IyRHYxdEw1Wi1FYUkzMnU4c3N4T3JwbUNB?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-halts-retaliatory-strikes-after-lull-in-us-attacks/article71270262.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643490-iran-us-backers-targets/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-suspendem-bombardeios-ao-ira-que-tambem-freia-ataques.ghtml
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666977.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sen-kennedy-says-trump-likes-184524762.html
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/khusyty-atakuvaly-naftovi-obiekty-saudivskoi-aravii-ssha-vpershe-za-dva-tyzhni-ne-zavdaly-udariv-po-iranu
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/what-lies-ahead-for-iran-as-scope-of-us-war-grows-beyond-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOcDY4MVdNa1ZJUDFsVkNzRDR6Y0oyZjQ0VW1wQVdaVXUxREJRejlSbC1NVTd3SGtxZkM3d1RpQ1VTbWFTRmJsQ1dZclhJQjU3R09NTjRsOWFDUkVjd1lRTVZaRHBfSlBtUEMybjVsVFhORVdzNnBNSFYxbnlDb2RwUzEtOHF5VDB6Qk9Nb1gwWV95eE4zOGcwbk90eFB2ZUc2WmJ4NEhPNExZUVVXWDJBNTlNTQ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFBzS0FfSkotRklRNDVHeW45TEFEM21nODZqUnctRkVUbm90dzR1eDk0M2RsWlV3SU5NRU9RNlYtdXNUbXJfZVJLVHNqRUkzRWF1NGUzTG5hVmxRVEpHaldlVzduTDhVcHNMcWtBdjhLakM1Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/freeze-the-conflict-drones-slow-kazakh-oil-flow-amid-russia-ukraine-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/643489-pentagon-eyeing-megaraid-iran-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260726215511eLk
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/radbez-oon-zberetsia-na-ekstrene-zasidannia-cherez-obstrily-suden-u-chornomu-mori-na-zapyt-ukrainy
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666973.shtml
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727053411Zdg
2026-07-26
2026-07-26
Updates
- Trajectory (escalation): Black Sea oil terminal suspends loading due to Ukrainian drone attack, compounded by pressure on the grain corridor, concentrating supply risks.
- Russia's Novorossiysk Sheskharis terminal suspended crude oil loading from July 22, affecting about 650,000 barrels per day of exports.
- Ukrainian drones also attacked a large refinery in western Siberia, 2,000 km from the border, showing continued expansion of strike depth.
Key Events
- Ukrainian drone attack halts loading at Russian Black Sea oil terminal (Kyiv Post)
Watch / Outlook
Black Sea crude oil export disruption is unlikely to recover in the short term, with CPC pipeline risk becoming a focus, providing additional support to oil prices.
Linkage
Drone attack / Black Sea terminal shutdown / crude supply gap / oil price rise
Sources
China News Service / Kyiv Post / Yahoo News - World / A News / Verslo žinios / Index.hu - Külföld / Mehr News Agency / Kyiv Independent / Google News - World / ECNS Politics News / USTR Press Releases / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / El Mundo - International News / El País Internacional
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81039
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/oil-price-surge-war-iran-225258637.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-26/10666595.shtml
- [4] https://www.anews.com.tr/americas/2026/07/25/trump-says-full-scale-war-with-iran-if-we-dont-get-100-of-what-we-want-report
- [5] https://www.vz.lt/logistika-ir-transportas/2026/07/24/ft-saudo-arabijos-kroviniams-raudonojoje-juroje-ribojamas-karo-rizikos-draudimas-587916
- [6] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/25/usa-iran-jemen-huszik-kozel-kelet-hajozas-voros-tenger-blokad-szaud-arabia-koolaj
- [7] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246494/IRGC-conducts-fresh-attacks-on-US-bases-in-Kuwait-Bahrain
- [8] https://kyivindependent.com/russias-escalating-port-attacks-choke-ukraines-grain-exports-as-industry-nears-crisis
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOOVpNZ2psN29sT085Yy0tT0xweWpLcTBRbUxaVlRGS1hJVFRHc3R0QjdlSWEybjlnNmtKYXM4WjQxaG9neGFqZkNrUEthVHJsQ2VEM0VEX2hJc2tIcHNZT0tEV3JQRUtrbk9YT0dGOGo0T0VVbUVkOVZaS29hWHRBcUw0QkJ4VjlSc2h6czhXWGRkT2xiMkJJUlBkcENSX0VjQndrSjJlT25vS2FFSVA4WE5B?oc=5
- [10] http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-24/detail-ihfhqwkz8170671.shtml
- [11] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2026/july/fact-sheet-ustr-section-301-action-response-failure-60-economies-ban-imports-produced-forced-labor
- [12] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/saudi-arabien-jemen-angriffe-100.html
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/07/25/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-trump-douchent-les-espoirs-d-apaisement-des-europeens_6732384_3234.html
- [14] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/25/6a64b258e9cf4a923a8b4598.html
- [15] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/las-claves-de-los-nuevos-aranceles-de-trump-que-suponen-a-que-paises-afectan-y-cuando-entran-en-vigor.html
- [16] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/26/russia-says-its-ban-on-gasoline-exports-will-be-extended-to-end-of-2026
- [17] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/donald-trump-egyesult-allamok-europai-unio-vizsgalat-vamok
- [18] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/fekete-tenger-roman-part-tartalyhajo-tamadas-orosz-ukran-haboru
- [19] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246487/IRGC-targets-large-US-ammunition-depot-in-Kuwait-with-drones
- [20] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81066
- [21] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81042
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/trump-vows-to-punish-iran-for-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-oil-surges-over-100-133244120.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE0wSWJENDJQQ2lraVM1bFRtRkZZWk84QTQ0VGVzWFo1NDJOdmNyLVF4LTBLd0g2VkRPV094NU5rSktRQWwtYmdSYmxZeXBOSXFDczNpWU1qNHZ3dk96YjdEbUFRT2h3bUFm?oc=5
- [24] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-steelworkers-manufacturers-and-farmers-praise-president-trumps-tariff-action-combat-forced
- [25] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ustr-takes-action-forced-labor-section-301-investigations
- [26] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/25/l-arabie-saoudite-et-les-houthistes-au-seuil-d-une-nouvelle-guerre-au-moyen-orient_6731930_3210.html
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/trump-impone-un-sistema-comercial-caotico-en-su-tercera-ronda-arancelaria.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOWV84eEVlNkpwN2YyRjV4SFpPd05QQk5pVjY1dFB3NUJNUHFYQ2JNWjN0ZUw1blJldTJYelJJR3VfTFRaR0hNemljRnpMLTVTeE0wejZSNWt5WG9iRU1rMll5NlZLLWd3aW1faTViRlVTVU1GRzRWeUNFR29uMDU0czdONkNMcXVWT2lkN2hWLXdZVXNkQlVmTlJFNGdLRkp2ZDQ5Tko1VWh6TjNxOTMzNmNWenNISzYtLWtPR0kzX3hVek0xS3NSQ1N6QVhxUHpNc2xGNUduak5aNHVi?oc=5
2026-07-20
2026-07-20
Updates
- Escalating: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has suspended crude oil loading after a tanker was hit by a drone attack, directly affecting Kazakhstan's exports and exacerbating global crude supply tightness.
- The CPC suspension, combined with the Strait of Hormuz risk, represents multiple simultaneous supply disruptions, historically rare.
- The drone attack indicates the conflict has spilled over into the Caspian region, harming Russian and Kazakh interests.
Key Events
- CPC suspends crude loading after tanker hit by drone attack (Google News - World)
Watch / Outlook
The timeline for CPC to resume loading is unknown; if it lasts more than a week, it could push Brent crude further up. Attention should be paid to whether Russia intervenes to mediate or retaliate, further affecting Black Sea and Caspian shipping.
Linkage
CPC oil loadings suspended / Crude supply tightens / Global oil prices up / European gasoil & gasoline margins rise
Sources
China News Service / POLITICO Europe / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Yahoo News - World / USTR Press Releases / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Global News / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Korea Times
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-iran-strikes-war-peace-deal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662645.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/19/business/oil-prices-stocks-gas.html
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260719-middle-east-live-us-launches-strikes-to-punish-iran-after-troops-killed
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/cherez-ormuzku-protoku-prokhodyt-blyzko-dvokh-tretyn-dovoiennoho-obsiahu-perevezen-ministr-enerhetyky-ssha
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-completed-latest-023955394.html
- [7] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-loggers-and-industry-leaders-applaud-president-trumps-bold-tariff-action-regarding
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk417jp83po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9tZERHLXprM1drb05FU0RWV19EeDluM2ZSRkFEb09pNDdOZzlwc3R4b2VSdFNmdHlfWUlhLTN6X3VpQ0ZCTndfd2tDQXByamdpbElxMW1VUmtZRzlGdHV5WVE2aG5mT0x5QU81S1FXNmc?oc=5
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11971735/us-airstrikes-iran-war-continues
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/irans-shadow-fleet-rushed-6-billion-of-oil-to-china-during-brief-us-truce-report/articleshow/132495532.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/19/kuwaiti-power-plant-ablaze-as-iran-hits-us-gulf-allies?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260719/us-strikes-irans-revolutionary-guard-over-attack-that-killed-troops-in-jordan?utm_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-iran-blown-past-red-093545840.html
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/escalation-fears-mount-as-us-hits-bridges-and-iran-strikes-desalination-plant-150747882.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxNQjFsc1o5b28zLW5TaGc1eWFHWmJfLUpxOGZnOGRRV1BYNm9SYWlKZU9qN3ozSG42cmRBU2p1MHJQN1JvbEpyd1JOc2pCMmNqY0pUbWJMdDhyQVRUYzFSNjBQakhXRl83VkhoX0VuSm1PeDRVRlhIRENBWG9CLW52MVBxQWhaTnllMllDUXZuQmwzTnRhYU5hMmxMSXI1bWlkeGp3dHFweFRGRi1fTjk1UXotT3k0NGdKM2VEc2FIanNuelIzaTF0QWRB?oc=5
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-says-iran-missile-towards-jordan-s-aqaba-intercepted
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNVkZ5QXo1N2hOeXZuODFkalM2aVg4bjNlX0p4UHRzM0FLb3VBbzBKeFRGeVZCdENGMEFKRndFXzdTaDFTazgtczZnZDRBZWRHQjdHTjg3MHF1MjF3blhaM0pINlhCeGxPZkJDVTBYTkkyY0FPQjFpZEp0N3RzRFNSMkJBMFRxV3NCcmZpc256X0I1MlRUelMtc0g1RdIBoAFBVV95cUxQbkZxaDI5R0M0elRWcEpiTjhNeXJnQ0NJSW9VNFhTQ2MydlF1M2c0azUxbThYcksyZDMxYkZhcG40VGwySDh1VXdoS29sT1RNdEpLSnZfMTA3QmpweW1NYlhRVmVieWQ2YU1zbzl6TWJ5d0k1S3VHLTBRYUdzMkdyYTdkdDJOWFlWM1VHcVdmSFF6NmlLXzFCb0FwVXJhTEdD?oc=5
- [19] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/19/chris-wright-strait-hormuz-iran-01004359?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662633.shtml
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662632.shtml
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/kuwait-bahrain-respond-to-iranian-attacks-amid-growing-escalation
2026-07-18
2026-07-18
Updates
- Trajectory (intensified): Persian Gulf shipping volume falls to a one-month low; Somali pirates hijack an oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden; multiple supply chains under simultaneous pressure.
- Persian Gulf shipping nearly halted: Iran's ongoing war disrupts oil tanker passage, pushing shipping volume to a one-month low.
- Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden: Suspected Somali pirates hijack the oil tanker Astana off Yemen, increasing risks on the Red Sea-Indian Ocean route.
Key Events
- Persian Gulf shipping nearly halted, oil prices hit one-month high (The New York Times)
- Somali pirates suspected of hijacking oil tanker, piracy resurgence in Gulf of Aden (Al Jazeera Middle East)
Watch / Outlook
Two critical shipping lanes, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden, face simultaneous threats; global tanker capacity tightens, and shipowners may quickly push freight rates higher.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / Persian Gulf crude exports blocked / global crude supply gap widens
Pirate hijacking in Gulf of Aden / tankers reroute via Cape of Good Hope / transport time and costs rise
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #3 / ABC News / ANTARA News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOU2lCWUtlZ2xEN3lYTlRkYVdOUkR1TzM4UENrMmVYUS1wVTJDMG9CRjFSMU5DRUVpVFZidDNuMHNRMjR6c0dua3hZUzhia01RN0tDU0VGVWYtWWlzVTZZMWlPcmtTa3JwX05zSW54Zl9zakJRd0ZBZTZKQTM4Q3lMYkxJajJ2akE4RW5BdzFfdDJGRU0xSUhnR19PNElLLW9ENjZpMEI0bnlmaVBwSk5obWRWS3FSZElxblVGaWUyNGc4UQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/iranian-forces-missiles-and-drones-fired-at-us-targets-in-gulf-states?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/business/strait-hormuz-iran-oil-prices.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-18/10661819.shtml
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260718/fece6c9835bd4a85a767e238b4052709/c.html
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-curbs-endanger-050616544.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260717-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-iran-infrastructures-civiles-prises-pour-cible-kowe%C3%AFt-qatar
- [8] https://abcnews.com/video/134842971
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5654716/iran-gempur-fasilitas-militer-as-di-oman-suriah-yordania
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOdklMSnhYQmNTWnBFZ3JGTkRkckE1RTg1QVBpd3hWb291ZGsxSGNqSlF2VGtxWWtIdWtzY2VGUDZ1eFBxN0RZb0huWFZ3U2FoaWtBVTZ1MmQtWFZGOVFncW1nVW9uaGhfd1lZZXlVUmcyZVdFektMajJSTVhXYk50a0pEbFI1RFBPQ3Y00gGQAUFVX3lxTE1xSEFicjl2X29zZ1IxQ1NONUNycjlJbDlkRTd0UWM5cjA2eU9oczE3OEg5cEVzcEd5ZTlveEV5aVZ4MjB5c0hqVW9SaklKLTJrMEpSMHlPRWtHMDR6YUFPalg5el9ISTM3SmRpSW1XbW04eFBGS1JZXzBQVE1jVlVvRFd5OWdSVU0yMVZDeWFlSA?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/us-launches-seventh-straight-night-of-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPc2ZkclBjdExUQmlrZURuWWltMFBvUmFEN3VVSkZDT0Y0ckZUZXRCU2pFV2NKeWUtek5IQ3Z5dUVkQzFOSHczUFVDT19fc0FBTUZWNGVRZUJVY216Rk05RkwyVklqTXlxTzZVczIyYjZINlRTZVpmVmFyRkVzcHpfallaeDRWR2tNeVVvdDZBYkttRjFUNHI00gGcAUFVX3lxTFBtUFFBeloxLXJKUXdIWkJTSHBoWERCNkV3WlN4OWFuaWIxQWJlWnBjcVYyUng0VDdkc21rMk90czUzdnd2ekJEOVUwbWFTLU9ja25LTDRteEJpaXhXVnVHTWFFZXlLNWlvODRIRUxlYW0zcWFwSzBxSWJSSUFYQnFQSFRKMy1kN1JTZ09GcE1WRnZlczV5ZVlxd2FweQ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/suspected-somali-pirates-seize-tanker-near-yemen-amid-wave-of-hijackings?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260717-civilian-infrastructure-hit-as-us-and-iran-escalate-attacks-across-the-middle-east
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260717-attaques-iraniennes-au-qatar-des-frappes-pour-punir-l-arm%C3%A9e-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [16] https://abcnews.com/International/iran-hit-3-bases-hosting-us-assets-latest/story?id=134815868
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNV19JQjNsbG9UTjhwaFJDdU9waGppMDRfenJsUmJWNFczUERHV0lIMFR1Z28zalN3UzVlaUx6dHVCc0lBU1g4Y1hic19NLWc0UkFLSUxFdksxV09GM0R5QlhON252RHFwb3B5MVNlaUJoX0pPNFFtbUpPVUg2d20tYjV4MGlvSnNwc0Nib01jMGg?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPVEI2eGZFYnBWb2RZWU4yZERtYmVSMVdLeVk0UzJWOVp2bFRiVHFRQlpMaGwzQy15b1JsZlpfbU1ZRC0wNUZudldSdlRocWtueC1xekxieTZQQXdBMFY4Z1B1ZHlwWGFPaHdkM2FxaFhQekxrWVQ0WHJFdnhQZE4tTEkwdHFoSHhzVzV0TEtIZWFwRXNBMXFfLTlMLTFzMDY1Smc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/17/can-the-us-and-iran-reach-a-lasting-deal-to-end-the-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUnhZMXNZSF9WWDFpVFJJWURlcnpUbjVJR0d4RWpkMXVGd0RfVVFhN3FRQ0M4Zk5nRmo3cVd1ZmFnajNzU2xvd2ZnRWlUUmNkTTlxWThwNThQWkJubG5aVmozTFllVmdLZk5xeHNsSHV0STFkOHZnZmZGVllnMlZFS1VkMzMyUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBQMXN4ZXNiODlXYWFTakk0MmFJZC1COWRISlM5azVsYVZXWHNqV242eVFPdFNVcUtxODlVSndoTHdrdFlld29hS3JlMzVqR0tFSFNGanE1dXhNakxoTmwtZnRTRmFoNVhsVzhSNnVGTdIBdEFVX3lxTE1SMFRwN01INEh6b1BrbVU3MkI0amVfT1ltdldYd205SGtsSVFyVGh3NDNYQU0tcEdxeGZkb0lLNUJ2czJ4QXpXZXkwOUZWSWotamU4dmFoanM3cC1zcy1iVEFONUQtYzNzWnFLMzc5cDAwSHRz?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5vUktnR1c2bm80dDNYdHBidEo0cTQzUTdSYlZvZzU3YVNVM0FaekJLazZsY3djX3dwWTNRX01sQTZfYnF6MGlhbjh3Wll6eENCSkJTRzFLZTc5dU41enNlZ0ZIb0JwX2ZZ?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE1kVloyRVRzdnA0Ulk3R1AxaTNtWDMyTHdWQXlZOU8zb2hjaXZEblFnQUptai04Y3pSUlFxSURpWS0tU1hwNFdnMndjMlotMUJQUVZ2NmdOZ0t6czZXZk1YRTU0dnhMY3lEeVhlX29aUQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9CRTdoVUhnVjkxYTZVWXJCdXRnWXVSZGkyeXJiOEg0MzRzYk9JWkQtbDFPZ3BxSVZMdTVxOG92aEg4YXo1dVdMcG1QNVFVSWJtT0dCU0xFUTY4ekZTYnJzV0szUC10UTlEY1JHRlRB?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPODlwMjZYMFpNSExQbzlXYjF1UFhtMHF2aGR2ZkVZckxNSDJsdncydGtOV3ptMlBOX29HRnF6QWpfbWMxNnZ2UVVzb0ZDVjZLS1NpWlE1VG1ER2NUcm1aODBKQkVXRVRNazRVSThpVk9uSWRlcWNlOHpWdVhWT1Q4N3JmejNYdE9nNUp5LVFWYmhRa1dfcXZYMy1QQkJUSWh3cl9wcldR?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNekpxMWZGMkpySHZVZzZCbHhBZ2JVMXJZbF9nRlI1Z2FVQ2VaQ2FpeTBVaWdMNzlGcHlLelNnNHdMR0pGdDBNaGhYemxjSmtsOFBJR2l3X1NWLU1Yb0QtX2k3RTJnVHNBVENjN2NCUkdrbUx5bFhaQ1Z2ZVJsUnBpekxHUWpBbl9BeTFlYS1DTEl2RUNHUFp6c3hvOA?oc=5
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/iraq-signs-deals-with-western-oil-firms-including-to-revive-syria-pipeline?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOTGFTaTBuZXJJTG1kNk9VeEVfTjA0OFJmOUE2SUU5YUpiZHNQY0FPc1BHNVo3UVNVM0FJSklQd1dVejNHbnlIU1A3ME83bzZwcjZHOU43YlA0RGo2ZDJHYU9keXBJeUhVYktHZ1E3U294dVpLeGxOV3ZieTNPSGhFUkIzRVYtdE1zQzF3cGtuTkNGRXMzekdkZi05TFBWbzJwaTNLb0JmZm95bFNmeVdnZkJWQkV0S3B4SEQtUklaYXhaNXY1?oc=5
2026-07-17
2026-07-17
Updates
- Trajectory (escalation): Japanese companies' rare earth procurement costs have surged over 20% year-on-year, reflecting geopolitical tensions and supply chain bottlenecks.
- A survey covering multiple Japanese rare earth-consuming companies shows cost increases related to global supply chain strains and US-China geopolitical competition (Nikkei Asia).
Key Events
- Japanese companies' rare earth procurement costs rise over 20% year-on-year (Nikkei Asia)
Watch / Outlook
If the US-Iran conflict continues, critical mineral supply chain risks will further increase. Focus on rare earth alternative sources and cost pressures in the defense and technology sectors.
Linkage
Rare earth supply tightness / Japanese company costs rise / tech / defense supply chain risk
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ABC News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/643155-iran-bridges-region-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east-war-rekindles-as-us-and-iran-resume-strike-exchange
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1RWk1Qa1dMb0Y3cjlkWWtFUFpPQzhEMnk4N0lFRmswd2t1R1F0Yi1oS1Z6TUJFQ0xpRzZPcGd3Yi1ndU5YYlk3ZjRJYkJxRVkxdmlPU2RxY052ekFOWWc5NDd3LTJLMmx5MkdmZ293?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260716/36275ccbc12d4af1af7ebc9c9f5b77ef/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660981.shtml
- [6] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c151gdjwd10o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/us-mounts-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks-as-iran-warns-of-wider-war?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-sixth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/brazil-calls-trumps-25-tariff-unjustifiable-vows-impose-134822260
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-slams-barbaric-us-attack-after-hospital-evacuated-due-to-nearby-strike/article71231195.ece
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-warns-strait-hormuz-red-075143851.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/rare-earth-costs-surge-over-20-for-japanese-firms-survey-shows
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/643145-iran-and-america-new-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660984.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYXFnZWtOU1NXb01HY2FxbTBsUmJqNDlaa3NORmpyZ0pYVzhSVFZkaUNYTjczY0E1YjhpR1F1OGRoT3dJNnVTMjVuUGJyamVCckJwMi1WY0hJR2NyVGQ0ZDdzbF9LMzgteGZDRGtMd0ZQV211YWF3cHpYLWdhTXZjTXVhTG1zRkRmR3Q1NVdQRWNEb2xhZU0zRTFodmM4ZXc?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPbGp6ME1URkg1Zng1YjRkYk1MRGJxd09aRHRXVmhDbVBRUlRNbmNrQjZ0akM5ZWFKbmhsWFVqakt6OWE2WU1yZWUyaDJUMVg3Y0ZiUHBWNFpaRVJfdlhIcng0bWo3dHlGV0twNjZXOEJNbzk1SUt0N3pvRDdteGR6T1pRM191QkJEZWVPTzlKLVNHb1c0UXo5R2xiTUlqS242czZOYXgzMA?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/16/how-serious-is-irans-threat-to-disrupt-shipping-in-the-red-sea?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-fifth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/16/what-could-a-us-ground-invasion-of-iran-look-like?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-administration-races-clock-rebuild-us-tariff-wall-134820722
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/as-the-war-rekindles-what-options-are-left-to-the-us-and-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/07-16/10660952.shtml
- [23] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-threatens-to-block-more-vital-seaways-as-trump-orders-renewed-iran-blockade/article71224209.ece
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-tells-houthis-to-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-report/article71229802.ece
2026-07-11
2026-07-11
Updates
- Trajectory (escalation): Since Putin acknowledged fuel shortages at the end of June, Ukraine has continued to strike oil depots, leading to a nationwide crisis on July 10.
- Ukraine attacked major Russian oil refineries, triggering a nationwide fuel shortage and chaos at gas stations.
- Russian authorities ordered residents to work from home to ease fuel pressure, and diesel exports have been banned.
- The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for Russian oil production.
Key Events
- Ukraine attacks Russian oil refineries triggering nationwide fuel shortage (Al Jazeera Middle East)
- Russian fuel crisis escalates, authorities order work from home (Google News - World)
Watch / Outlook
Russia's fuel shortage is unlikely to ease in the short term. The diesel ban will continue to tighten global distillate markets. Attention should be paid to the progress of refinery repair.
Linkage
Ukraine attacks refineries / Russian refining capacity declines / global oil product supply tightens
Sources
China News Service / The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / ANTARA News Agency / France 24 #3 / RT News
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/us/politics/iran-war-escalation.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNWU8weHNqWU10dDFxUGpMR3Z5LW0xVVVnTlNuU2ZBaWpXS0ZnbHQ4c3BENmZ2QVZMZ0VLWmIyUnU0NVM2Tkp4T0lONVM2NnF5cHluZWRxR3FkOXdsNEJoQ3I1VmV3a3hOcExFWll0Vkp2VUJKN2xpcU13US1lOEkxWE1CcEY2dWZGbUZ4TzZ3V0lYRUhLdC1CZjJNTDVJZVM2TDZpSUU0V0lQdkZn?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/10/ukrainian-attacks-cause-chaos-at-fuel-stations-across-russia?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/top-iranian-officials-admitted-supreme-162000309.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukrainian-drones-hit-southern-russian-refineries-azov-port/article71207976.ece
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260711000300315
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644808/as-dorong-kapal-niaga-tetap-gunakan-jalur-selatan-hormuz
- [8] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260710-les-hostilit%C3%A9s-entre-l-iran-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-reprennent
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/07-10/10657209.shtml
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642860-iran-khamenei-death-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQd3p4VkVsUUpoYmxDY0ROM2c0Qk9IVEVGWnZFZkxOdjYtNEZuVmRSMFBXNkpwSU5Ka3M2MkRrUGV1U3hRaktUTVFFdmhWZjNHeG13NHJscUVKd0hLSnlrZ2k4bWV6VklQVHppSWhLV2ZNQUJBNjhhUVBONy1DUGc5dERTbUJaeHZ2dTI5ay1HU0U3M2JxWVh6WHNLS3Naa1U0aHg5Ym1uc3RVdHM?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/iran-shipping-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOanFsbUNrR3NoakU1cEowb1ZIa3oyWU55NTZaYll6VDJHal9KVGhGclVuUFNuNFZ3bEV5bDNFUWVyY0E3ZlE2YjFoV0V0N1pqdzFJaU13Y0RvUlBLMDBWTXpKWU8xdG5TRnFveTRjVDBvSHVqRGZZQkVGcFdHenZVNTBneEtCUQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/trump-says-us-has-agreed-to-continue-iran-talks-but-ceasefire-over?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ml--iran-us-105500253.html
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-senators-agreement-reached-trump-171753021.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/russian-attacks-kill-four-as-ukraine-continues-to-target-oil-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-has-asked-to-continue-talks-and-the-us-agreed-trump-says/article71207807.ece
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinastemporary-export-ban-on-helium-explained/article71206477.ece
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260710-reprise-des-hostilit%C3%A9s-iran-usa-sommet-de-l-otan-marine-le-pen-condamn%C3%A9e
- [21] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644803/as-ingin-israel-tak-terlibat-serang-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-10/10657255.shtml
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/07-10/10657250.shtml
2026-07-10
2026-07-10
Updates
- Trajectory (escalation): Dual supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz and Russian diesel intensify global energy tensions.
- Strait of Hormuz tankers nearly halted, attacks test Iran ceasefire (Google News - World).
- Russia's Saratov refinery shut down due to drone attack, diesel export ban takes effect (Google News - World).
- Bank of England chief economist says rate hike possible this year (BBC News Business), but theme is supply shock.
Key Events
- Strait of Hormuz tankers nearly halted, attacks test Iran ceasefire (Reuters via Google News)
- Russia bans diesel exports (CNN via Google News)
- Saratov refinery shut down (Reuters via Google News)
Watch / Outlook
Watch for whether the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and the impact of Russia's diesel ban on global crack spreads.
Linkage
Strait traffic plummets / crude / LNG spot premiums / energy inflation rises
Russia diesel ban + refinery shutdown / diesel crack spreads widen / global diesel crisis
Sources
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Nikkei Asia / Prime Minister of Canada - News
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-faehrt-schon-wieder-fast-nichts-mehr-a-2d1d09c2-0512-461e-a4ef-deeddac13e10
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPLXg5T2JPTTAwZUtYN0Z6TDNURjVQQ0dIQkZNdHJTX3JzM3dldHg5aEdKbGtmU2tpd01IajlCMjkxX0RvaVZ4d28tR1YtbXROMUNuY1JVRDE0N3U5ZXpGNGE4czNWbWdfOTlZdUxVclRGRHRaWmVpTkJtcGhmcVJ5UnJvNjJUQlgtS2xLZVlxdk5aeUhQb0haWDVDNlBGMEYtdVk2LVQzdDVUVkxSVmJ5SWJQZFJ6Uk1iTkpJ0gHAAUFVX3lxTE9oaDRrbklIamJFU00zR3dtbFlqMWdReXV0SVFxcXRuTFk5UU5RbGEzWGxWMTlYSUtSb0JQTlZNZm9rT2t4U0YtNjRpLUN4Y3R6OVVuQkdCSjg4a0lEV2UxMnFzdlN6d1NERGU3ZWFQRGhEbW04SExnb2NxVUkwNzBWazBBakd2bGJZcFVJM3U4RGlWazAxYjd
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/how-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-led-to-latest-us-iran-cycle-of-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c932ed8nv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621k5r8764o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-unleashing-attacks-iranian-official-132635907.html
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656391.shtml
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-claims-us-strike-hit-near-nuclear-powerplant
- [9] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/indonesia-launches-b50-biodiesel-to-curb-fuel-imports
- [10] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/07/09/prime-minister-canada-mark-carney-and-crown-prince-and-prime-minister
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPYWUtOFlPYmpMTHRWUjQ5ZTNjOFRaaVNCV0Z1aWZJY2E1UkcxV0t5M1dUYjExWWljV0lEbTd2ZE9semxVZjZQXzlYQnlQWjY0dWx0YUMyTXUtWnJsa3hYUlJGY3MxSWpuQmRUNmJxU19YZU41S0l5WDBLWlY1aTZHQVROdzNIcE1GYjlfTXJka3NNbGNTV2hvRFlxRllZd1AzOHlYRVJwSUtFUURha0NtbWdtWXBxb0MwaEEwNkFpaW9sQzlfajAwSQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/explosions-heard-in-iran-as-us-military-denies-involvement?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPMTluaGZLSkREMHJXUUgwVko5MXRPQ0l0cGhFUFEtZTJkT3BzTGZDdURQZElaMkpocnFkUmtmNXpVWHkzSE9CSUdPWnlHaGpqV2NNSVE5cFY5dWJwblA3Q2Y3ZU1PQ252bUV1NVl1cF9pbDVMam9PNEhWRlo2MXdld3R6VlJMbkE?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/9/why-the-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-matters-amid-us-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nahost-iran-beschiesst-jordanien-und-bahrain-und-wird-selbst-massiv-angegriffen-a-21eff440-2bcf-447e-8146-243650d51132
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656183.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQb1FJY0ZsOU5VeHpXeFdyNXJfSWhsUDdMLWViM0FnLTVqUTJYWWxUbENwd3JQcnlMcENuMFIyTHFEQTU2emlIUWxRajlVclJPaTE4VnhQQkxhWHg3OG9Tb3pGUFRUTExqVXlVWDZZTC1rSU5hY2VqOXJteUxGZ2FaY3dodnE4WjUtN3NPREZibUI0a1lBWFE?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPWDRJcW1wUllxQmpHN0tycGF5SERVMEtKQ0p0QXhXMmpnaWRFUlJJN3c4SXh1S3Z1alpXSGdiN2VoeENReDh1Q0o1d2ZBdlUyUkQ2RDZNNVVSUDA5M3NreVRhVzR6bklmbnRvUVN6M2JHOWtCZTczcm9pOGFfV1Y1ekY1TjRHMkNMYWtYVVBibGE0LU9wbWJ3M2l0YXNQb3c2cll6OENacnpiYk96dUlld0FvSVZBZlExVFZ1M1JGZDc0WUZnN2lV?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/9/us-expands-iran-strikes-iran-hitting-fishing-piers-near-nuclear-plant?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxOcjJ3MFQwQ3VucnA5X2wzVVA4S2M2dm54OExheU41WFVMQWZXd2hKNzQzaktCUGFGTWdFNS02WEttdlhaU1R2WHY3ZDBBbE9zdW9CeVlhWEx2OUtOVkU2cnRqZkVPMWMzUE5ZbW1nSDVqb2hrd0M0aHdFRVE2SFpfVlY4OFZ2cWV0TWhCcWE1NVRxQVRZRkJxaWVCR005ZkRnRU9xdjV1Ty01NlIyZEZKbUVmN3pLdXc5bDFZcDRTUXZFdC1zM3c?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/9/will-nato-get-involved-in-securing-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNLWRoOE9KTTRPTGtUN0R0Z1VzUUhyOU5UVmQ5Z3dGY0otTTNOYnhfQXZhb0FDM1FnT0V1T3QxM05zVWV2UE5BLS1QUHNRbVFSZ0ExdlQyeXk3dE5UTFdnRFlPaVk4dkJ5QThvSVV6S1dkZ0FnMWlGUW10eWo3VHdOTmpNaTQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5zR2FVTHZrcGRpMzdzaU11YWZTMU9GN2ZWbTFtNkM2YkNRWGh6cEoxdlhQa0Vvd2FpbHVuXzZiWHJRTVBWNU5VU2Y2ZkRVOVNvYjhzMWJMSUs2d0ItV3hoRjFfT2NpUmlGYzBsSHVGRGY?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQMFdRNlpaV0ZCRU1vbThIVlFSQy11anNlcDc5RUxFbmhraHU2SWptSXVNdFBjX0FmM3hTRlFpa2V2QUlaMGVpZGtJNEY4MzNmMGNwR2RmNm9MaXdqbnBldzRnbnpZUHR3Z2NMbUNBTHpIS2ZRaHIzUWxGQmgwSlUtUllCVmpaVkVRUm9SSi1R0gGTAUFVX3lxTE00X3NPUnQ1dzlkZVBwMGpuYzd1RFJVdlhINXVUTlBRMkdidGpiQ0ZoUVdJYmFZdGRHUkgxcGlSeVJCVTlaUzNNWHNRX2UzZC1QTWs0RU10MjZhcVRHSzVhWUl3alo0WThDY3l4YkpCTTM5WUdQSFNPWFdoNjU5Zl85aTNMMzBCQTZHVjVhWkdvRVZ1bw?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOSzYzNzBjcjFnUWdFWUV3UzBsZzVhcnVVX0ZHOUlXN2lfQWdBWlB6d0RCOGJOd3JKdHpBVkVWd0ViZnd0UndyQ3owUjFhei1BNlQ5WTJZR29WTkowMHd6ZGgwczdrUXlHNjZuSnZSdmZZWXFndTNBbUpyQTVLZXQyMFJYZmZSNjJ5WS1wMF82UnY3dmNRZE56UlVGX2Y1bTY4SDRBTjVPRDVYSUxYN19hX28yLU9wNU1uUmowcm41T0lodU3SAcgBQVVfeXFMT1hZZkt5OTdLdDVMODZSNXJkNE5GU1BLemRqaFlxWlUxbFlCVGJyQmhvMTVzVTRvMWp1VmZONHZ4NVVqUmFwRlpoUE05UHBFczJKSTdrcFFHUi1rX2I4WHkwS1dWUERvM2FFSjZ0T3d6U3VvMFhLWGlfSmdXUUc1aGRaeVhfdkhSNXNyaGJIZFp
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPYmQyTXJRVFgtVE1uM1MtLUhNb0dLaUNLMUxyYUpLcUhHWmowR2JhZGZtamJZaWJNNG13TkI5RFU4N19sZHl3czZkblU1Mi1tcDVCUjlRTGdXWDRLc3Y4bkc3ai1ObmVwQV9oYXdvN3lwVEdhX0F1bk5aUm05WktoZ2FrVm9JQnpfeUQxZF9tRmoxdXF6VWlnYXVKbw?oc=5
2026-07-06
2026-07-06
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalating): Strait of Hormuz transit volume drops to 17% of pre-conflict levels; US escort capacity limited; Russian fuel crisis continues.
- From July 2-4, US escorts only 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, averaging 23 per day, compared to a pre-conflict average of 138 per day (China News Service).
- Russia's fuel crisis worsens, with citizens queuing for up to 18 hours for gasoline (from historical context).
Key Events
- US escort in Strait of Hormuz averages only 23 ships per day (China News Service)
- Russian fuel crisis: citizens queue (Reuters historical report)
Watch / Outlook
If Strait of Hormuz transit remains low, global oil supply will face substantial disruption; monitor US-Iran negotiations and escort effectiveness.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz transit volume plummets / oil supply gap / upside risk for oil prices
Sources
China News Service / Google News - World / The Independent / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / The New York Times / Russian Government News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ORF.at News / Global News / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / Deutsche Welle German News
Reference Links
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNem9aeTdMZS1SYzcydDMydVQza0I3eEhwXy1qeVYyYjdzMUxhWjJwajRXNFM4UmVrNm1Ob0ltbnNYX0tCT0NTR1VZWkh4X2JYaUxBOXZYYzl6VmlIZUJ1S2JGRXRqc3NhUDQ3Xy1UdTd4bGptbjRhMFduMk9vUmF5a1ZfS2Y?oc=5
- [2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-israel-new-york-strait-of-hormuz-saudi-arabia-b3009330.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653267.shtml
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260705-iran-grande-pri%C3%A8re-pour-les-fun%C3%A9railles-d-ali-khamenei-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-07/opec-oelproduktion-foerderung-markt
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/business/opec-production-iran-war.html
- [7] http://government.ru/en/news/59229
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/cargo-ship-reportedly-attacked-in-red-sea-off-yemen/a-77838529?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3435361
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11953602/canada-seeking-clarity-annual-cusma-review
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260706053421yqP
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-trifft-Selenskyj-vor-Nato-Gipfel-id31050907.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/america/2026-07-05/la-paradoja-de-trump-en-venezuela-el-apoyo-a-un-regimen-al-que-prometio-derrocar.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/de/staatschefs-putin-und-selenskyj-rufen-trump-an/a-77836694?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOU2pnNmNzUTctOHVzeDVQdDZCZHBfZFlHUEhzcmN5c3BpUWVzaTlxQm5UNkZ1NC1SYkd3MkRaNFdSWkRSTXVFXzhpNXFjcWhqd0FVSEFFUG1MdTdfeUlLOVhDenh3UUt5N0NVTHRyLUFzbGFHVnpxY2xCZlFxZ204b3lJNUJyLUFGcjFleU5mOTlVak16MXl5cmVQTjBCd9IBowFBVV95cUxOWkhoQTlPVm1JU1RDQmkzc2UxdHZpZEY4U0pBSWdVUTdOcV9nVzBvQnB6eWhvSDhfWnA4REZvOFNsOGk3YXBCdHVMWHd6SlZ2MzhKdkpERm1EaW9OWjdVRFFZaS03SXpldGM4TjhHN0ZiN3paYnNuWGxISmFlckFVd24tYlhzUV9oSU1odTJOTUdGdU9ZSlJXT216b3BxVk43WDRV?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPZnM4c3Z0bXNvTWdmbVhPS0JpZ191RGp5UUduV3UwTm5vblhBQ2RTQ1doeHlCbXBJZnlGcm5XSWc1Sm1Wa29aX3pkRXA0d19GUl9jLWVGNVBjdjNGSU9nVC1fczNmQl9vOVJVOHVUM0Fvb1JFNGR4Y2VtUHB4dnZIXy1YZUtrOTZ1VjJ0OHlBQjJ4VGg5Tm9VZnhUMUxsbTlGSzJIRnpZMDRhOW_SAbABQVVfeXFMTUFjV1V0Ukc3ZnpUNXlSYmN1NmJUTlIzWGFIVGN5aEQ0WUxLWTl1MVFXeE5tU2k3M09Ya1RRMWhxNU9xWVppT1pQZGdWWG9PdXh4OGx5djlBaVcwQy1KRGZkZXhpb0ZfX3pFc09DWHdWWnMxR0ViS3BKOURIVUwzckVfSFEydFhxV3U4U19xQzdzSGpJa3Y3TUd6V3R4dDkwN3lMUFE0Ujg
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-funeral-khamenei-tehran.html
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/trauerfeier-iran-ali-chamenei-teheran
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/selenskyj-fuerchtet-massive-russische-attacke-vor-nato-gipfel
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/au-c%C5%93ur-de-l-info-l-invit%C3%A9/20260705-elena-volochine-le-pouvoir-russe-est-sur-une-ligne-de-cr%C3%AAte
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653265.shtml
- [22] https://orf.at/stories/3435327
- [23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/israel-tehran-donald-trump-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-strait-of-hormuz-b3009267.html
2026-07-05
2026-07-05
Updates
- Ukrainian drone attack causes Russia's Lukoil's largest refinery to suspend operations again; the refinery is Russia's fourth-largest and second-largest gasoline producer (Kyiv Independent).
Key Events
- Major Russian refinery halts again due to drone attack (Kyiv Independent)
Linkage
Drone strike / refinery shutdown / gasoline / crude supply loss
Sources
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Sky News / RT News / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / Sud Ouest / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Mehr News Agency / A News / Kyiv Independent / France 24 #3 / El Mundo - International News / BBC News (Top) / Valor Econômico Politics / USTR Press Releases
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-hit-as-ukraine-targets-russia-in-major-drone-attack-13560510
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-05/10652908.shtml
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/642585-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-mourning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-04/iran-begins-dayslong-funeral-for-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-in-war
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-07/erdbeben-venezuela-la-guaira-tote-nachbeben
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPTnZZMm5oVERvUHpwZGVVazNQOFZmWERRRU9UWmk0Tkhyd2NOQTZJa2xkRXlqcXVGTmNPRFJ4TDdrNmo0ZXJXY1VoMW80QnNYLS1CalgzWmVrck1uZmxVX2JtTk05S1FrbUJpLV9DQkZaNFRSRnotT3YzVlNBN1hPZmpVc29KbmhWM1NlMVBDdmJfV0RhQWc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/iran/iran-une-foule-compacte-dans-le-centre-de-teheran-pour-un-dernier-adieu-a-khamenei-29795044.php
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/the-funeral-of-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-khamenei-s-funeral-ceremonies-officially-begin/a-77816592?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245890/Iran-s-Intel-Min-vows-to-avenge-blood-of-martyred-Leader
- [12] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-gives-iran-leverage-comparable-to-nuclear-weapon
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/major-russian-oil-refinery-suspends-operations-again-after-ukrainian-drone-strike
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260704-en-direct-d%C3%A9but-de-l-hommage-de-trois-jours-pour-le-d%C3%A9funt-guide-supr%C3%AAme-iranien-ali-khamenei
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a492bc9e85ece104c8b457a-video.html
- [16] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2vmzxezro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/04/trump-ofereceu-ajuda-a-putin-para-acordo-com-ucrnia-diz-assessor-do-kremlin.ghtml
- [18] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-ranchers-manufacturers-and-businesses-applaud-president-trump-not-rubber-stamping
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/4/russias-medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-irans-nuclear?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245884/Iran-warns-against-military-moves-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [21] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/uk-france-say-ready-to-deploy-multinational-force-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOUXVfTjQ0NmJWOW9yNFlPTUVySUVqZlV4NW93V0NKWTFRY2cxeWhzVjFDNVRaY1dNekVXSUEwVk1ROG0tSUc0SzJsVWJuUHM4UlFoOXNyeHBNcjNFRjVjX2Q1Qk5ZcVpqR3lZSnJ1X1J6Qmtoc3NCY1p2TkZHUmZ5YU14Q3I0NS1RSEx6M2F0X0NyQk42clZLMXhIZHJORGNxZkhpSnV4MjlaVkU3ZkpCaw?oc=5
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-04/10652893.shtml
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPUk1vYU8yRWN0UDZvcTNTSEtCQlc4NjQxdXFSdlVoZ2dSY3RfYlRlZDZGeGdLVGxNOE9lWHFYWW5FV3ZyNjZxSGZvX0FWTmZmZldRMEE5dlVCUEpfbXRmVEpxb19KSkIzWkk0U2llU1dQNm5iZk9ENU0tUDhULXpTSXlORVMxN2ZsQXhDeko4WXd1WVhMV2JPY2dUTXNqRjFMRV9MdGhVRThRY09WMWc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/4/will-economic-pressure-move-the-kremlin-towards-talks-with-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-july-4
- [27] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/europe/ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-la-russie-affirme-que-des-drones-envoyes-par-kiev-ont-touche-un-terminal-petrolier-a-saint-petersbourg-29788535.php
- [28] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a49243521efa0d45f8b458f.html
2026-07-04
2026-07-04
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalation): Gasoline shortages in multiple Russian regions; private gas stations impose purchase limits; government seeks humanitarian supply from Kazakhstan.
- Russia plans to import aviation fuel from Northeast Asia due to fuel crisis, highlighting refining capacity bottlenecks.
- Novorossiysk suspends gasoline retail; supply tight in Black Sea port city.
Key Events
- Russia gasoline shortage; turns to Kazakhstan for humanitarian supply (n-tv Politik)
- Russia plans to import aviation fuel from Northeast Asia due to fuel crisis (Reuters via Google News)
Watch / Outlook
Russia's domestic fuel crisis hard to resolve in short term; increased import demand will tighten Northeast Asian and Kazakh product markets, supporting global gasoline crack spreads.
Linkage
Russian refinery damage / Gasoline shortage / Import demand rises / Regional product prices up
Sources
Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / The Independent / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / RT News / China Government English News
Reference Links
- [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-seen-less-likely-raise-130759582.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/4/iran-war-live-millions-expected-in-tehran-for-funeral-of-ali-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/04/paris-und-london-wollen-strasse-von-hormus-mit-oman-absichern
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1IRmJkU3lmYi1xelNicG5hWFJ5QmJOc2U5dlJxN09Jc2EzM3J4dG5RSDZxNEE1akRYR3JkTEpjQ1VkQmZBVC1xMjdLaWhuVzhSTUhTTGRNZWhhcHN1dkJ6VmpCamxUOG9mZmlrRjdwQ0NsX3U3VGY5UzRxSdIBgAFBVV95cUxQS3FWdEt4UHMtMEM0Rmt0RENXTnJKTC04c3hsVlcxb2hYT2xJelk2SUJndHgwTk56ZnBnSGpiOFBOLW02QlgwcjhzanpIelB1b3otaW51czJPTnJTM0RERWlmdHRFSEJpNVVJcmRwMVdsNU14VUpfTkVaX2g5aGpFRg?oc=5
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-funeral-iran-b3008364.html
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russland-sucht-Benzin-im-Ausland-id31045531.html
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140474-suputnik-pokazav-stupin-poskodzenna-vijskovih-i-adernih-obektiv-iranu-zmi.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-russland-krieg-142.html
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/03/seisme-au-venezuela-un-dernier-bilan-fait-etat-de-2-645-morts-et-12-666-blesses_6720488_3210.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642546-iran-us-israel-ghalibaf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://english.www.gov.cn/news
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/iran-begins-week-of-funeral-ceremonies-for-slain-supreme-leader-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPanlfMW1EMnFya2ZMNmFLVjBtT3ctNzZIdmVvVlVsYlNYNTJMRXJaTXlRU3BET0dncnF1UDlTMFdmVy14ZnkwdVdjWjNrS203OExQQjBjTUJHRTRBVUdYYkRSVUVLVGszZjF2ZWRMU2VvY0RhWGhVTFpPV0VkTmE1cTVHVnZueU9OOHBnT0xCcmNZdVVmeS1WZzdyS050NUVNcm1BQVlGZmV6N0NySlFJa3NIRG9YNDk2QUhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/yemens-houthis-threaten-saudi-arabia-after-alleged-airspace-intrusion?traffic_source=rss
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- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNZkg1ZzBwMDZqYVhHLUwtUWhNbWd2eVJkOGdFcDJHZUxKWTRFc3MyZTdoWHpKczlmVTgwR2R5QjQwU0lhUmJNOVYydlppNHR3emVMaEVuQW9GY1RHU1pHVFhYcDRBeWZHcG1sVjFFYWp2blNseUZjVjRHampXU3BPeHVsWDZBMGhOUVJaaWF5dzN1bWdocWR5eFA1MU90ZlQ5cUhvTHEySXJ6LUsw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/rohstofffonds-bundesregierung-johann-wadephul-seltene-erden-brasilien
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/largest-us-power-grid-pjm-190819959.html
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/carl-skau-welternaehrungsprogramm-vereinten-nationen-hunger-iran
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/cossacks-volunteers-help-keep-order-043430489.html
- [21] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/07/03/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-dans-la-ville-de-kiev-au-lendemain-de-l-attaque-la-plus-meurtriere-depuis-le-debut-de-la-guerre-les-recherche-se-poursuivent-dans-les-decombres_6716525_3210.html
- [22] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bildet-China-russische-Soldaten-aus-Berlin-bittet-Botschafter-zum-Gespraech-id31046589.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/642553-us-wants-access-cook-islands-critical-minerals-ambassador/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-03
2026-07-03
Updates
- Fuel crisis in Transbaikal region due to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries; queues of 600-800 cars stretch 4 km at Rosneft gas stations. (Meduza)
Key Events
- 4 km long queue at Rosneft gas stations in Russia's Transbaikal region, 600-800 cars waiting (Meduza)
Linkage
Drone attacks on refineries / fuel shortage / long queues
Sources
Xinhua World / Politika / Google News - World / The New Indian Express / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / La Tribune / Meduza / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767802/izrael-spreman-za-samostalni-vojni-udar-protiv-irana-ako-bude-potrebno
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOLVdjbGMxNzNIN0lpak9kdDNFQ2djWmhSYmh6Y2Y4SHpCbXdYWkRNMGlkSFBOOWtxSUNrSDFCTDM2N1VwTEt3ZnBJUmVaaUY1YXF1YjFacWg3UWNRUFlZSUhDTkN3Y3Z0Nm53QVY2T2xYUFJGbElEZHMteUMtYm9IY1JUTGZPUDRyWXpqYkpVZ2lTY0E?oc=5
- [3] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jul/02/iran-warns-oil-tankers-to-use-approved-routes-in-strait-of-hormuz-or-face-forceful-response
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/german-prosecutors-allege-ukraine-ordered-nord-stream-pipeline-attack?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-prices-jump-25-as-weak-us-jobs-data-cools-fed-hike-bets/3984510
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260703/a77dd64ae6ea4783832e416f5c77d0d2/c.html
- [7] https://www.latribune.fr/article/economie/international/22415974798200/etats-unis-le-marche-de-l-emploi-ralentit-les-marches-jubilent
- [8] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/v-zabaykalskom-krae-snyali-na-video-chetyrehkilometrovuyu-ochered-na-zapravku-rosnefti-v-ney-stoit-600-800-avtomobiley
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Besitzer-von-russischem-Tanker-zahlt-Millionenstrafe-an-Frankreich-id31040935.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140186-es-nacilivsa-na-tankeri-rosijskogo-tinovogo-flotu-aki-nezakonno-vikoristovuut-prapor-kamerunu-reuters.html
- [11] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-jumps-into-160-range-for-1st-time-in-2-weeks-on-intervention-fears
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/eu-targets-chinese-imports-amid-trade-talks/a-77800366?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5633043/ekspor-minyak-saudi-via-hormuz-capai-level-tertinggi-sejak-perang-iran
- [14] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-us-iran-talks-013010346.html
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767793/kovceg-sa-telom-hamneija-stigao-u-huseiniju-imama-homeinija-uoci-pocetka-oprostaja
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBpc3EzUGNBbk4wMk9vQi1ZcmgyTnJtSnE2NDZocXd6RFZaUXRieXhDa21yQ3lXLV9ia2tuMFFEVlMzTmpTNllZMHlUbw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPRlNwaTgzVm82dHE0SUZjMERWTHZEQWtERXVIaG1wbEJnSU80UFVJS1J6ZVAxOHpIQmE0QzhDalNCTFV6SmNhbW4wUlV4YmRvRUcwQlc2eDFpNnM4UUJZRlZIQnFqampTRDFjdUVkNHNiN1BuLW9tNVdZMzlsdzhrX1RNTXBVbkFCMm8zTGdub2xkZUpUZWNXSGFtZEkwZkxhWGVfRXlybGp2Z0cxMmtJY0FZNXkwblBk?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/with-hormuz-reopened-has-the-oil-shortage-turned-into-a-glut?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/saudi-crude-exports-from-gulf-hit-highest-since-iran-war-truce-report/3984278
- [20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-economy-adds-fewer-than-expected-57-000-jobs-in-june/3984359
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/why-has-trump-refused-to-renew-the-usmca-and-what-will-that-mean?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767783/medvedev-finska-ce-biti-medu-ciljevima-ruskog-nuklearnog-naoruzanja
- [23] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/kyrgyzstan-poprosil-sosednie-gosudarstva-i-belarus-pomoch-s-postavkami-topliva-90-benzina-strana-poluchala-iz-rossii
- [24] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-gelingt-weiterer-Schlag-gegen-russische-Oelindustrie-id31038777.html
2026-07-02
2026-07-02
Updates
- Track (escalation): Mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz requires at least two months; shipping companies still view the area as a war zone; a vessel ran aground in the strait, Iran emphasizes control.
- Russia faces gasoline shortage due to refinery attacks, rarely imports gasoline from India, reflecting supply-side pressure transmitting to refined products.
Key Events
- Strait of Hormuz heavily mined, clearance takes two months (ANTARA News Jawa Timur)
- Russia imports gasoline from India to address shortage (Google News - World, via Reuters)
Watch / Outlook
Hormuz passage recovery may take longer than expected; short-term oil prices sensitive to supply disruptions; monitor Russian refinery repair progress and import sustainability.
Linkage
Hormuz mines / tanker passage blocked / global crude supply tightness
Russian refinery attacks / refined product shortage / widening crack spreads
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The New York Times / Deutsche Welle German News / The Hindu
Reference Links
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5DclJhM0xOZmJZWWVhemhJdmpBOWZzb0EtM1NiUEJtS2c3MGdsX2tqR3lpWjBPazg5QWE0LXR0X01VNVdqNk9kUDhIenB6NXRWR1RpeVVRTTBWc19fUjdTV0prSW53UWtJNnVKTXR3U2NGU3djR3Jv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702090822jwc
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651050.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20zgjzz0e4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-declines-to-renew-usmca-trade-pact-with-mexico-canada/a-77793686?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-takes-the-war-to-moscow-why-kyiv-unleashed-its-biggest-attacks-after-g7-summit/articleshow/132114028.cms
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/how-war-on-iran-changed-the-global-energy-sector-forever?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1078404/selat-hormuz-masih-dipenuhi-ranjau-pembersihan-perlu-2-bulan
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260702/172a0a8c075a4de388ee2f69eb4649a2/c.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/de/benzinkrise-in-russland-ukraine-setzt-putin-unter-druck/a-77776237?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-defence-minister-says-troops-to-stay-indefinitely-in-lebanon-syria-gaza/article71171573.ece
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651036.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702063728bit
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260702053914jcI
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPWFRJMk44c05WbExLd0NkcUJOQ05NUWI0U1N6YzBkSmNQVFlRMl9MLVIzaHRMY25hZE5PQUNuWktOMTJQUFdOODR5N0xYN3dIVUhpMUtzTzFIdk1WMFJ3MVptY3RsREM5QjRQRzZxZ3JTU3NscEdPUlRPeVFHaHRoZ05xN2dsZDZtLUVRNXNVZHlrVU1JU3FKSG5xSWN0UVdjN3hZaVRTbWhHYVk?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNWkZYV0pQcGtwWU8xYlNxQVJKNmxyc05LWWd3RnQ2M21VNTIta21JQ2puNF9EdXlqWTRPMHZqT3hOVE5Sa3o2NExGaGtxcmJHbGdCVzVEblVJeWpITGpRQkFxU0J0eTN0c2RuY04zYm1wZVNCX0c4NkJrVXZXR3IyVDBRUW5faXNiRnZPd2lmcmxOWkNPeHhDQzhQeU9xWVR3THRaaTY0OVM?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/us-says-it-wont-agree-to-renew-usmca?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-drop-in-prices-of-commercial-lpg-cylinders-aviation-turbine-fuel-as-west-asia-conflict-eases/article71171543.ece
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/shipping-companies-unions-still-consider-hormuz-a-warzone/article71171371.ece
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/7/1/is-ukraines-campaign-of-targeting-russian-refineries-working?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/business/kevin-warsh-inflation-ecb.html
- [23] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-japan-to-sign-lng-security-pact-during-pm-modi-takaichi-bilateral/articleshow/132117357.cms
2026-06-29
2026-06-29
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalating): Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy facilities; Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages for the first time.
- Ukrainian drone strikes cause a fire at a large Russian refinery, further tightening refined product supply.
- Putin convenes emergency meeting to address gasoline and diesel shortages in multiple regions.
Key Events
- Ukrainian drone strike causes fire at Russian refinery (Yahoo News - World)
- Putin acknowledges Ukrainian attacks cause Russian fuel shortages (Der Spiegel International)
Watch / Outlook
Russian fuel shortages may persist, affecting domestic supply and global refined product markets; watch for potential escalation of Ukrainian strikes.
Linkage
Ukraine attacks refinery / Russian refined product output declines / domestic and regional fuel prices rise
Russian fuel shortage / global diesel / gasoline supply tightens / energy price volatility
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / RT News / France 24 #3
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260628-iran-threatens-to-halt-talks-after-fresh-us-strikes-attacks-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/araghchi-strait-of-hormuz-remains-under-iranian-control-for-30-days?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-following-renewed-us-233412520.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260629/72c7151f0d5a44ac84fb6e294a46d4f2/c.html
- [5] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-and-iran-agree-to-halt-strikes-plan-doha-talks-over-hormuz-dispute-axios-reports/article71159808.ece
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-29/10648990.shtml
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260629065045N2l
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNUjMzVkxxSXh2OVNqNEhNQ0V3Njh5cGdkYnE4VUdwaE5xRU1hRzdvXzRmQXpNQ1NmdE9BbDAwXzBWa05KbnlDU2xLRVRiY2NpdWN1T1RFSk16cHBjSlR6Q3lER1FNblpLd1ZJRlU1QmdTejNpTU12NGxYenRWRlB3aVREX21RRVdwaXkxdVBvM2doTEdZdXpJRE9kZVNMS01WZ2xfU2U1cVk?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-warns-ships-not-to-bypass-its-chosen-hormuz-route/article71159031.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/world/europe/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-peace-talks.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-raeumt-treibstoffmangel-nach-ukrainischen-angriffen-ein-a-a69147bc-7d0e-47a7-81d8-83520968cab7
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642317-us-nature-break-promises-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260628-tehran-targets-bahrain-and-kuwait-after-us-attacks
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260628/6761e481d6c644cf8ee679f0d882e578/c.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/29/iran-war-live-tehran-insists-on-control-of-hormuz-amid-reports-of-us-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260628-le-contr%C3%B4le-et-la-mon%C3%A9tarisation-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-au-coeur-des-discussions-%C3%A0-venir
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-forcing-u-escalation-trap-175146972.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQcDBTQkFEbzlzV3FGUXhBeks0Wm5CV2RIU0J4aFcwTl9jRFRNeHRNbkxzVEZNa3ZNSTcwS1FDZm5PM3RDbVJuMFc0bWRwR1hhSlZFVGlMSkdvOC1GcnlLUWpUbjQ0aFlMYWN3X0gtdVBUWHZYSHNKR3BKelJtdUZ1dUpnTWVubU1BOWowd1N3aE1kckE1Uklya1huN25iLUxYM2Q5N0JtcVY?oc=5
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260629052746BCz
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFAzS1lkbHd5RDY0ZUY3bFB2OWgySDBmaUVMU0xzXzV6QXZucTNzTTgyelJuMloyOFpBdmNpOWtmVkFvSXMya3RfUGtzNUl0NlFiaGJyY0paTkNKYm5Md2RVZU5pUUZYSDUxc3ZwNXozdTdDZGdMZDJR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/us-and-iran-trade-strikes-days-after-peace-agreement?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukrainian-strike-sets-fire-oil-101732043.html
2026-06-26
2026-06-26
Updates
- Breaking (escalation): Russia's NORSI refinery halts production after a drone attack and is unlikely to resume this year (Google News - World, Reuters).
- Sources say the refinery has no hope of restarting within the year.
Key Events
- NORSI refinery halts production after drone attack (Reuters)
Watch / Outlook
Russia's refining capacity is damaged, potentially affecting refined product supply and exacerbating global energy market tightness.
Linkage
Drone attack / refinery shutdown / refined product supply tightness
Sources
Xinhua World / n-tv Politik / Sky News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Google News - World / C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / The Independent / RT News / ANTARA News
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Strasse-von-Hormus-nach-Schiffsangriff-zeitweise-geschlossen-id31014682.html
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/un-suspends-strait-of-hormuz-evacuation-after-ship-hit-by-projectile-13557819
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/26/iran-war-live-israel-attacks-lebanon-as-netanyahu-says-troops-to-stay?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137757-iran-atakuvav-civilne-sudno-v-ormuzkij-protoci.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE95V3NFS3M5NHpEM1c3cDZFbFAxeU9rQ3JmaFUyVzlxOWtnTkNuY0VZeURhNjl3bk94dG1JaTJ4OG16dG9RendIeklId0h5Y1lGMmV3bnpuUTZrTEROUkJwU09qdkhxR0hmUXFPSTFMcm8?oc=5
- [6] https://cdhowe.org/publication/north-american-free-trade-is-gone-dead-and-buried
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwg9np904qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/daily-commercial-vessel-traffic-in-strait-of-hormuz-hits-post-war-high/3978114
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/un-agency-says-pauses-hormuz-180527069.html
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/25/british-military-says-cargo-ship-hit-by-projectile-off-oman-near-un-approved-route-for-strait-of-hormuz
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-earthquake-death-toll-missing-magnitude-b3003101.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/6fc8b99c6a274ace906e96c21e462d1a/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642124-iran-us-hormuz-dispute/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5623523/menlu-as-sebut-negara-negara-teluk-tolak-biaya-tarif-atas-selat-hormuz
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOb2hvUU8ta3ZNNEpHLXViODlSdk1odzlhUUtPLUtLWkV3ZWtaVi02RmxKbTdjbnNGUjk2SVhxQWVwVjdDbURXdUMyWW9vX2R2Y1V2bWZKLVpnLWc4eWJsUDd0RW5sZWxYTFMzZ1RKNE5vSTFMUkUtOG50LTVJM3NRaW5ERXdnUmhwNHhjYWo2enhOWENiQWJTWHdzNnhfTXEyNWNYbEVobzh1a2Z2RjdZ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNbEVHVTRvRDdQV0h4aHloNU1NUjJwSVNVTTlhY2pjSF83aEZXVWo3QXpQbi1QdXctRFc3dmxRODluMnlqSEJlLTdZQTJrTmF2Z19kcWZfd0ZlTEtLQTl6akQxRjBUYVB4eGFBd0lzbi0tTEU0NEdYMm1xRUYyMG44UklkVmpMMUhHM2YxcnlJamhRcFlEcElhb0FjbzdQSnJsaExpaVk2aGdkNTNZajd1bjZR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-gulf-states-call-for-reopening-hormuz-reject-any-tolls-fees-or-attempts-to-assert-control-over-waterway/3978163
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-thursday-25-june-2026-b3003096.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/featured-documentaries/2026/6/25/iran-israel-and-the-bomb?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/oman-backs-iran-us-deal-says-future-hormuz-transit-will-be-fee-free/3977936
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/45341251187b4f638ce2cdb87dab7551/c.html
2026-06-25
2026-06-25
Updates
- According to Reuters, the Moscow refinery may not resume production until 2027, after being damaged by a Ukrainian drone strike. (Google News - World)
Key Events
- Moscow refinery restart may be delayed to 2027 (Google News - World)
Linkage
Refinery outage / reduced fuel supply / higher oil prices
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260624/faf92e11b67d4988acd7063698ca873e/c.html
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260625/rubio-says-tolls-on-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-happen?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOcUNoNDdBVEJHd28tNzQ1aHNNRERxZE9Rd0pUX2NON3kyOXhaSmkyV0pNdXVlZlZSUnp0bmppSTVHT1VXakxXODc3eERiUEJVNElnTUd1QW5MZUVmemVnTlF1MUVpbzV1NmdrSTFKRjVSMTNJYzFhdmtXOGg5azRvSmotQktTVkZIX3hNbDdWdk42WFh0QVk3MUV6b1pzMllNVWJmUS1JVmhZNVNPZmxRVmVwTkQtbF9W?oc=5
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260625/0fb0dd02789b41ac88e962f882310d1a/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/06-24/10646728.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-energy-secretary-says-20m-barrels-of-oil-exited-hormuz-in-last-24-hours/3977057
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/counting-the-cost/2026/6/24/has-the-worst-of-the-hormuz-crisis-passed?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/iran-scrambles-to-move-estimated-8.5bn-in-oil-as-us-eases-sanctions
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4137223-cini-na-zoloto-vperse-za-dovgij-cas-vpali-nizce-4000-za-unciu.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642051-no-war-no-peace-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eydwldzdjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-doruchyv-zsu-byty-na-vyperedzhennia-po-obiektakh-yaki-rf-vykorystovuie-dlia-masshtabuvannia-viiny
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPeUpTSE5UMUdXb1pOaEc0QUxMS0R4R21sdXRudXJMQTRRQUhia0hpczY5Y2gxUzR4djlpQkNlUTBqcC1ZT0VZUDV5UFBnY2YzRC1vMDZNbXpVdFozRHk2X0tpRTJteTJHbkIxN3FCUUxLQ1lETXg3UF9Td0FKWmo0OHJJRlMtUk1VdEl3LWdzWXJVaXFwZVpWag?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-exported-40m-barrels-of-crude-since-june-15-tankertrackers-says/3976997
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/oil-prices-extend-losses-as-brent-hits-pre-conflict-low-on-easing-hormuz-concerns/3976930
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/6981cb5f350545cd89e1f5de72a93b18/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137206-iran-zapevniv-ssa-so-ne-stague-platu-za-prohid-cerez-ormuzku-protoku-tramp.html
- [19] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260624/trump-says-assured-by-iran-no-tolls-to-be-charged-at-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPaXU3bmV4YUtuUEZYbDMyYjB6dG9ZQ1NIRjB2bHhqQ3RtbkJFTjl0M3UwVTViSExsN05KT2tiV0tZd0VJNnhKbzVpdGJtWkpzSjdfQU1nNGdpVHlMYkdkM3l1MzVQeksyWEJzdEhSMFE5N3hLamVKUzI4aEYwMEhKbkFLeE4tSFlEMjlTNmtwUlA0eHBVNU9kaktENmU0YnU3ZU5WLVZPd2g5MVJqU0llUw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/4aaf85f712de49798d50cfa96ba21583/c.html
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/24/japan-weighs-deploying-forces-to-demine-the-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-25/10646731.shtml
- [24] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137263-katar-planue-vidnoviti-virobnictvo-spg-protagom-kilkoh-tizniv.html
- [25] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-detains-2-japanese-over-alleged-rare-earth-export-control-breach
2026-06-24
2026-06-24
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalation): Ukraine continues drone attacks on Russian refineries, causing gasoline shortages to spread to aviation fuel. Russia considers imports and bans diesel exports.
- Qatar factory explosion (historical event) combined with Russian refinery issues tightens global refining capacity.
Key Events
- Ukraine attacks Russian refineries causing fuel shortages, Russia considers imports (La Libre)
- Russian refinery attacks cause gasoline shortages to spread to aviation fuel (Bloomberg)
Watch / Outlook
Russia's fuel supply tension may persist. If aviation fuel shortages worsen, civil aviation operations could be affected. Watch for potential Russian export bans.
Linkage
Refinery capacity damage / domestic gasoline shortage / Russia import demand increases / global refined product market tightens
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / BBC News (Top) / Die Presse / La Libre - International Europe / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / DW German News Service / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/un-starts-evacuating-11000-stranded-sailors-from-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNUEhPMFVsd1lLSFU1bXQ0TzBxLVRNdU5RbXRkZlN3aVNBQXpiajR4ZXNxMlY1YkhUcGF0OWV5eFIwOW1xdDh3ME82X1QteF9BM1hBYnhvZ3FaZFJITi1PakFsajBma3ljWE9SNmYtQktKYVYybTlUdDBXOGZ2Yi0yNFIwQlpPRGpZOHNqMGpvcw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/iran-strait-of-hormuz-marco-rubio-keir-starmer-british-b1287320.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/de/teheran-iran-wird-straße-von-hormus-verwalten/a-77667212?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24yr796emzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.diepresse.com/32460710/us-aussenminister-rubio-werden-keine-durchfahrtsgebuehren-fuer-hormuz-akzeptieren
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10646007.shtml
- [8] https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/guerre-ukraine-russie/2026/06/23/lukraine-met-la-russie-a-mal-en-visant-ses-raffineries-petrolieres-EPPFHLLF2RHHPEEVROSKWKNC6E
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/latest-pentagon-asks-congress-roughly-125943212.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260623/9d0c0295538e4810be1c22f104c67b91/c.html
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4136940-senat-ssa-pidtrimav-rezoluciu-aka-zobovazue-trampa-pripiniti-voenni-dii-proti-iranu.html
- [12] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-crimea-shortages-putin-pressure-rcna351328
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-buv-vrazhenyi-ukrainskymy-udaramy-vhlyb-rosii-ta-pohodyvsia-na-novi-sanktsii-ft
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/china-plans-postwar-aid-for-iran-with-eye-on-energy-supply
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/23/un-begins-evacuation-of-11000-sailors-stranded-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNUVNPcElCT1VQZnphbHBYdzZYNmY5Q0JBTnZfbUpjNVZCQzhLSURFbDlVLS1kYWpCc2xUTkRtaThBOG01WWxfLWlNZnBFaklrbnY5Z25tM0tGSHFjX0NnRzVwRkJYVUZCUm5vY242cVFBMmswNmhXMlI3Qy1HQ2s2VC1Fbmo1RFhhZEthekdQWDdaVjhJdVJYT2VhQURYdGdfcWdsdnJlelZPMmtiR3QwWFl3?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNR2hHa0NIT2RJMkFOTmhXUzFUOHVFTFdIUmVnQ2RGVmVWbms1UzJNaDhwWUdWT2NJbk9USGVncGV5VktVUXE2Unc4dkYyNUczZld4TFRTbEdSNEtZSjJSeldsaXkxNjRfT2hLOVg1MkZlMzY3cmRmRzhDY3VnZmNwMDJqMGFpRHFHb2M3cEQ4eGxRWnYyaEQ0TU05S0w5d1pwS2VXVVNkbjMyWElISGkzaUVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx23rnzdgl8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [21] https://unn.ua/news/yes-u-travni-zbilshyv-zakupivli-rosiiskoho-zph-popry-obmezhennia-crea
- [22] https://unn.ua/news/yes-ne-maie-kupuvaty-haz-i-naftu-v-rf-yakshcho-khoche-zmusyty-putina-do-perehovoriv-hlava-mzs-italii
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/india-prepares-contingency-plans-due-to-weak-monsoon-season?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy06495y2lko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://www.diepresse.com/32195277/neue-trump-zoelle-das-sind-die-moeglichen-gewinner-und-verlierer-der-deals
- [26] https://www.diepresse.com/32177719/benzinkrise-regt-die-russen-auf-und-setzt-putin-unter-druck
2026-06-23
2026-06-23
Updates
- Update: Explosion at Barzan gas processing plant in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar, kills 13 and injures 66, shutting one of the world's largest LNG export terminals.
- Explosion occurred during restart operations; Barzan plant is Qatar's largest LNG processing facility, accounting for about 10% of global LNG capacity.
- Ukrainian drone strikes Antipinsky refinery in Tyumen region, Siberia, over 2,000 km from border, with annual processing capacity of 7.5-9 million tons.
Key Events
- Qatar Ras Laffan gas plant explosion kills 13, injures 66 (Google News - World)
- Qatar gas export terminal explosion kills 13 (Yahoo News - World)
- Ukrainian drone strikes Siberian refinery (Il Fatto Quotidiano)
Watch / Outlook
Qatar LNG recovery timeline unknown; short-term spike in Asian and European gas prices expected. Russian refinery damage may impact refined product supply; monitor frequency of subsequent attacks.
Linkage
Qatar LNG explosion / global LNG supply loss / natural gas price surge
Russian refinery attack / refined product supply reduction / product crack spread widening
Sources
China News Service / Index.hu - Külföld / Il Fatto Quotidiano / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Mehr News Agency / NPR Politics / Jornal Económico / Yahoo News - World / SVT Nyheter / Rador News Agency / Meduza / Valor Econômico Politics / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Times of India / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
- [1] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/iran-izrael-libanon-hezbollah-egyesult-allamok-tuzszunet-hormuzi-szoros-beke-donald-trump-benjamin-netanjahu
- [2] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/sanzioni-petrolio-iraniano-usa-sospese-notizie/8426689
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQM1d6VF85bFlSZ1NnQnVEVFY5QmNzWklpWUtjUDQxd2ZWNUdmLWUtMi1JSUhwdnltMy04dkZaRi1kbHJDcmFXNzE2enVEUWNKOFUza0doZzFsMUx6emxlbVRrSVlyTHlMamVrOXFiR1dLNF9JLTBxdF9xRXZIdTE0WGF3?oc=5
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vy3nr63gxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10645322.shtml
- [6] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245525/China-imposes-fresh-sanctions-on-56-US-firms
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/06/21/g-s1-129222/us-iran-deal-lebanon-israel-strait-hormuz-jd-vance
- [8] https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/feed
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--qatar-explosion-015432903.html
- [10] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/explosion-vid-industrizon-i-qatar
- [11] https://www.rador.ro/2026/06/22/statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august
- [12] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/22/v-katare-proizoshel-vzryv-na-krupneyshem-zavode-po-pererabotke-szhizhennogo-gaza-pogibli-13-chelovek-desyatki-raneny
- [13] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/06/22/petroleo-tem-forte-recuo-com-avanco-diplomatico-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000251315
- [15] https://www.thehindu.com/business/us-waives-sanctions-on-iranian-oil-ships/article71134513.ece
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-eases-oil-sanctions-on-iran-after-vance-says-it-has-agreed-to-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131916209.cms
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/641977-iran-learned-to-stop-worrying/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-partially-lifts-iran-oil-sanctions-amid-encouraging-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.dw.com/en/us-waives-iran-oil-sanctions-citing-progress-in-talks/live-77653016?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [20] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/22/egyesult-allamok-iran-koolaj-szankciok-mentesites
- [21] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/donald-trump-iran-izrael-egyesult-allamok-jd-vance-tuzszunet-targyalas-beke-delegacio-svajc-libanon-hezbollah
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- [23] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/ucraina-la-guerra-al-petrolio-di-putin-arriva-fino-in-siberia-colpita-una-raffineria-russa-a-2mila-km-dal-confine/8426521
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- [25] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/china-targets-us-rare-earth-021542815.html
- [26] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/u-authorizes-iranian-oil-sales-162616323.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOUU9JUFRuQUZpYXZHOW41LXpUcGJGUmh1c2J2Mkk2Tm5FbUROWVB5WllmdWMzalk2dDNDLXh2MDBWOVk1MmRmSEIwQWE4Z2dJcGd3U0J5VGR1MnJKR0VJaE84ak9LSEhVU0s3eWJjZjZzRjhWMWdRWEhtNUxuODNITUJ6OHdsV3VuUU9IYkpEUnJMMG0yWWl2NElBOENRUndNdENv0gGoAUFVX3lxTE80M3kxY0J3d2lVRklaSVUybGtNQjdqVkF2VWJza3ctSmRoamdnMjE0VktNM2l2ZmdXZkRFMEplYVJCWFJBSnViVHBqMFkySFNPemw5QzlpWGdfV05QZmNUb1BXeGJxS0ZTY2Z0RU4yRXZ3Mk9wTXdhc1RiVVhfcFFmUFFWMXpEcjNLOGE0YkZUendHSllDcUJhZUFSbndPRWFENDZ0WVNsNg?oc=5
- [28] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000200315
2026-06-22
2026-06-22
Updates
- Track (escalation): A gas facility at Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City exploded and caught fire due to a technical fault, damaging a key global LNG hub.
- No dangerous leak detected, but the incident has triggered panic buying in markets over supply disruption.
Key Events
- Explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan gas processing facility – RT News
Watch / Outlook
If the facility remains offline for an extended period, Asian LNG spot prices will face upward pressure.
Linkage
LNG supply disruption / energy price increase
Sources
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / RT News / Google News - World / Times of India / ANTARA News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Die Zeit Politics / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/6/21/whats-next-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260621-fermeture-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-qu-est-ce-que-cela-implique-pour-les-marins-sur-place
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/641944-qatar-lng-blast-fire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNRWxtYWxIa0RhbldFTENsNlZndFdweFBoWlhoWFkxWXY0RVZ0SUIxT3dDNVNQSlVjNjlPQ3JEZHVqa0FyM3hSRVBXUFUxYXJ6T1VxQ3NMeV9wX1F6TldlR0RHUThTb0JDMmFpN18zRmNIcGZfWENjMkpQTVFVU3B5RjlQc05sZEI1YUdHNDRUUTcwSE5NWEZHSGRXcUM?oc=5
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/you-wont-make-it-back-to-your-country-amid-us-iran-talks-trump-warns-tehran-against-closing-strait-of-hormuz/articleshow/131894037.cms
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- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-us-begin-charging-204800472.html
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy0q41v1lzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/as-vance-meets-top-iranian-officials-in-switzerland-trump-threatens-tehran-from-afar/article71131391.ece
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- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-21/crimea-prohibe-la-venta-de-gasolina-a-civiles-y-empresas-ante-el-bloqueo-logrado-por-los-drones-ucranios.html
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- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcG5XRXhqYllSMDk1cko0aTRtX2dLWTFEVjMxYjhBVUh0WVZueEN4NEtLMUowNkVwNE1SRHFEUE5PMUhVY2o2MGJUbjEwMTlUalZrVzQtOUdxZG96YXFjc1c4LUFnaGtiMDFIeVdEaThKakJsdEJiVXZaX3ZHMFNDRk5R?oc=5
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-hit-harder-trump-threatens-fresh-military-action-against-iran-amid-switzerland-peace-talks/articleshow/131893832.cms
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- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/israeli-strikes-start-again-in-lebanon-after-several-hour-lull-amid-us-iran-talks
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- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9AFBVV95cUxOQ0p4dkJLYlNGX3JSMjhGeFJtUXZhZHFvSWhmYXIxblIxTzlqbm5meTJVTS1kVGRBYm5LUzA4NjZxcFdFWHFnVFRTNENLaHZuamJRd01tTmQwcEdyNC1TTDc2Wko2ZWgzdXJqOUxJY3ZrXzE4UldsNUJ0SmplUkJYVXR4cFRGMDJxeE43M0hZbnoySFZ4M0MxMGNHQXJDcUJmR2FyZXVzbDJYbDlXNzRrRm1Dc2VJNU01OXcxS2ZqTFdvWTdoaXE4a2lWX3lRQTM2MjBLTHBDUnhiNld1MHZKWVV5YzZRcE1HMjY5bktTOExrYzRy?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/641945-us-iranian-talks-switzerland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/trump-threatens-iran-over-hezbollah-150657905.html
- [25] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ingredient-needed-pretty-much-food-140000111.html
- [26] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/21/6a37a407e4d4d8a0388b459f.html
2026-06-18
2026-06-18
Updates
- Escalating: Mongolia's copper mine export blockage and Russia's gasoline shortage continue to escalate, independent of the Middle East situation.
- Mongolian protesters block Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine export route to China, potentially causing copper concentrate supply disruption (Yahoo News - World).
- Ukrainian drone attacks cause Russian refinery shutdowns; Russia plans to import gasoline by sea to alleviate shortages (Google News - World).
Key Events
- Mongolian protesters block Rio Tinto copper mine export route to China (Yahoo News - World)
- Russia faces gasoline shortage due to refinery attacks, plans sea imports (Google News - World)
Watch / Outlook
The copper mine event provides short-term support for copper prices, but attention should be paid to progress in Mongolian government mediation; if Russia's gasoline imports materialize, it will exacerbate regional divergence in the refined products market.
Linkage
Mongolia copper mine blockade / copper concentrate export hindered / copper prices rise
Russian refinery shutdown / gasoline import demand increases / regional refined product price divergence
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / KBS World News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / The Hindu / Sky News / RT News / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / France 24 #3
Reference Links
- [1] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202250
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/18/iran-war-live-trump-pezeshkian-sign-mou-to-end-fighting-reopen-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642747.shtml
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/read-us-officials-release-14-point-initial-agreement-to-end-war-with-iran/a-77595563?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/d28e93fb4ee047b38fef1fd0ee5b19dd/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260617/cdbbe7893b9146d1916ad79178e95bf8/c.html
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/protesters-block-copper-exports-china-090335412.html
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260617-middle-east-live-trump-iran-s-president-sign-deal-to-end-mideast-war
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9MMnJvejl3QjRFcno3YnZMX1EtZGotcndHcmRrVEpPUDRQZ08wQmZhLWpHR3lkY3dLejdZSmVHdFFNWllvdGJ6bExfQ183OVkzMmdJYzlqeEtGdw?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-confirm-deal-signed-to-end-west-asia-war/article71115548.ece
- [11] https://news.sky.com/story/the-14-point-us-iran-deal-what-is-in-it-13555121
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/641756-us-iran-memorandum-signed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000600315
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/world/europe/trump-iran-school-us-strike-minab.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/17/trump-eyes-us-iran-peace-deal-signing?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260618/99cc2a94226f4ec3aa9a880318ccc0d0/c.html
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642750.shtml
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260617-trump-has-signed-iran-deal-says-us-official
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNMTk2dUxGSkc5YkZnMDk1VUo4b1A1WXJpV0RVZ1NJdG1uMFdrVHFoZ0dFOGY3eUNVa3lGSjMzZjQ1OEI5ZXQ0OVd3TFR1bGlXOFh5X2VRZl9ubl91T2hnbWJ3Qi12NFFfS19WVzNkOWk0cHVfdjZwOERBMkUxMVp4bDJkRV9UcWpQQlg2NG84TnZUZ0NqRVFaMkJMYm94czl5cEhUUU9RS19PUUdf?oc=5
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260617-ce-que-contient-accord-n%C3%A9goci%C3%A9-entre-iran-%C3%A9tats-unis
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000552315
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/aa5d53819de2443ebe73c57185490253/c.html
- [24] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000500315
2026-06-16
2026-06-16
Updates
- Trajectory (fading): The three-month Middle East oil supply crisis has reached a turning point, but normalizing supply faces multiple challenges including mine clearance, infrastructure repair, and insurance restoration.
- The oil market has passed the peak of the crisis, but supply recovery will still take weeks to months.
- Qatar's damaged LNG facility will take 3-5 years to restore; Europe's energy transition dilemma remains unresolved.
Key Events
- Oil crisis over three months; normal supply recovery difficult (Le Monde International)
- Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement cannot quickly resolve oil flow; recovery to take weeks (Yahoo News - World)
- Strait of Hormuz reopening cannot easily eliminate shipping risks; mines and high insurance premiums persist (DW (Deutsche Welle))
Watch / Outlook
Short-term physical supply remains tight, but directional improvement is clear. The market will shift from pricing 'whether recovery will happen' to 'speed of recovery,' focusing on actual tanker transit data and insurance market changes.
Linkage
Strait reopening / tankers gradually resume transit / global crude supply slowly recovers
Mines uncleared / some shipowners hesitant / recovery slower than expected
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Le Monde International / KBS World News / The New York Times / The Hindu BusinessLine / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / n-tv Politik / RT News / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Der Spiegel International / ANTARA News
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/15/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-deux-parties-ont-signe-electroniquement-un-accord-cadre-la-reouverture-complete-du-detroit-d-ormuz-attendue-vendredi-selon-donald-trump_6701050_3210.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202189
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/6b796621ba324f6fa00834cd98d939b7/c.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641076.shtml
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/middleeast/shipping-fees-tolls-strait-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-iran-deal-signed-text-to-be-released-after-friday-signing-trump/article71106353.ece
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8mv6l6eezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deal-when-will-oil-prices-fall/a-77554342?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-Krieg-zehrt-an-Oel-Reserven-der-USA-id30970249.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/641619-israelis-reacts-with-anger/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260616/d2673a895828403e9929d0a14a2d68c2/c.html
- [12] https://orf.at/stories/3433405
- [13] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/even-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-164442179.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQTmNBUHNqN2tJV2czQ1N4WS1lQVptMnFjWVI2VUgwaFRXU0k3eUJ2WEczZFBqb2tWbFp1T2Eyc1pyMFlqVmN5bndfN1dwTDdiRjRZb0VhbXJtcUQxZEpjaGo2eG1vSFE0VFEzU1pvRms3Y2N1VDJKV0ZjRE80Tjg3OU9CeDc5TV9ycW9jdEYxYjFoYldkWkphRmh2SUxVTE1wb1FMd2dSc1lqNjgzOW10azhRclc4WldaaHJDbXFB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a303ab6e85ece86208b45a3-video.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/15/trump-says-iran-deal-all?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-06/oeffnung-strasse-von-hormus-iran-usa-oelpreis-inflation
- [18] https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/iran-krieg-raeumt-die-bundeswehr-bald-minen-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-a-fc77e7a3-e1c1-406f-9885-ad0079f7476a
- [19] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5609591/uni-eropa-dorong-rute-dagang-baru-untuk-hindari-risiko-selat-hormuz
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/eb2ba8da6b1e4516bc07b4a7b70ddb3e/c.html
- [21] https://www.news.cn/world/20260615/12ee5330301c47e48b4fc2c927e73a9d/c.html
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/641641-iran-us-peace-deal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a3034dae85ece1b5b8b457a.html
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641064.shtml
- [25] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/06/15/petrole-apres-plus-de-trois-mois-d-une-crise-inedite-le-retour-a-la-normale-s-annonce-laborieux_6703244_3234.html
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-end-shipping-risks/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://orf.at/stories/3433391
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-restore-normal-prewar-shipping-any-time-soon/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
2026-06-12
2026-06-12
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalating then fading): Iran announces indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global oil and gas transit; but Trump says a deal will lead to immediate reopening.
- Iranian government announces indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, banning all vessel passage. (Yonhap News TV)
- Tanker attacked near Strait of Hormuz kills three Indian sailors; UN warns of global supply chain impact. (Global Issues News)
Key Events
- Iran announces indefinite closure of Strait of Hormuz (Yonhap News TV)
- Tanker attack kills three sailors (Global Issues News)
Watch / Outlook
Actual transit status of the Strait remains unclear; if a deal is signed this weekend, it will reopen quickly; otherwise, supply disruption risk will continue to push energy prices higher.
Linkage
Strait closure / oil / LNG supply cut / energy price surge
Deal signed / Strait reopened / supply risk removed
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Global Issues News / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Hindu
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260611/9be8559013a241919a059f958c966859/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612053433nL0
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-denies-iran-closed-strait-121236200.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-will-be-taking-kharg-island-in-latest-iran-war-threat?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641447-iran-no-final-deal-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/11/43269
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-12/10638773.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000452315
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-nearly-done/live-77498305?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/govt-alerts-maritime-stakeholders-after-missile-strike-on-tanker-kills-three-indians/article71090376.ece
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612003008T13
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/iran-shuts-hormuz-strait-but-wasnt-it-already-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083357OnR
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-and-iran-have-reached-a-great?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-great-settlement-iran-195219669.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/641439-us-iran-war-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000451315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000400315
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083224dwc
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612075819ufq
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612072757xGF
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612064752PB2
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120656350XJ
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606120630438Uf
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612061022aOi
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612060952ESe
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120611227Xu
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612045638FUx
2026-06-11
2026-06-11
Updates
- Trajectory (Escalating): Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned on June 6 of a "complete blockade if provocations continue"; on June 11, the Iranian military officially closed the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels.
- Iran's Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters declared the strait closed immediately, threatening to attack any vessel attempting to pass.
- Two "violating vessels" were attacked by Iranian fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with crew members missing.
Key Events
- Iranian armed forces announce closure of Strait of Hormuz (China News Service)
- Iranian media report two violating vessels hit (Yonhap News TV)
- U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth says U.S. has ensured oil transport through the strait for weeks (RT News)
Watch / Outlook
Actual transit through the Strait of Hormuz has completely stalled, with very low likelihood of short-term recovery. Focus on whether U.S. escort operations can restore some passage, but risk premiums will remain elevated amid escalating conflict.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / global oil / gas supply gap / sustained energy price surge
Energy prices / imported inflation / strengthened Fed rate hike expectations
Sources
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / RT News / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638043.shtml
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/11/iran-war-live-us-launches-attacks-on-multiple-iranian-targets?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611084354pSC
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-erklaert-strasse-von-hormus-fuer-komplett-gesperrt-a-00d939ee-993a-4e9f-9537-2d21b352e7d0
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641370-we-will-be-hitting-iran-hard-us-israel-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-inflation-climbs-to-42-and-hits-3-year-high-amid-rising-fuel-costs/article71087119.ece
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQMlVZcWtvYWxjTXM5VUY5bTNJeXJpZW1YYWlNMmZRckNEbXFWQ1pUWkwwcmVkd3RrZk92TkxDYnlMTENxUzkwUnVSLV9selNvcHNoTkV5LUFjVHJFcE96NlBfY19ZdTlLMHdkWlBCcEJaaDRGY0d2SFZoQjlmeHBJa2VCbw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-strikes-in-latest-escalation-after-trump-threat/article71086716.ece
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/briefing/inflation-rises-us-iran-strikes.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/the-united-states-says-it-has-launched-new-attacks-on-iran/live-77482934?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyp9v0e93o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/us-bombs-iran-after-trump-threat-tehran-closes-hormuz-strait-to-all-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083243ePh
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611074943nbX
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/10/trumps-claim-of-escorting-oil-through-hormuz-wont-ease-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638048.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638047.shtml
- [18] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-military-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-as-trump-warns-of-further-escalation/article71086729.ece
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOeU9xcGJfcHRNQ3RydDNXbjc1NXFQbkdId2hlVnVYamxWWV9YRkdKc2lGby1mdEtNWV9INXJQNkUzcUladkRFaDJaZnBUdWM0blVIcW5PdVZDOFlNdXJrWlJxWDJLb0hxTjJ4WnhadThWOGpPU2JzYml4am0tdVNDWlJTQ29uaThhTUlmdDltSjNKVXk2Vm9LbFJTZDhXOHdRcTNxWjZjZUZaWkFGeHBRaXVrNNIBuAFBVV95cUxON1hwLVN2elBTdDJNVnZ2a0hrdVAzRFVpeThuVk9UUFIzbnVoZDFxLTJFaUFqZmJVUlM3Mm11YXBMU1lpQW9VUWQ0TUhFZEVqWll3WXFYSXRSLWJIUVQwUmJGd2FGMExmSXlOX3QtckFJNWtPb3FXTkZON2RxZ3FlR0VseGV6ZjVfTFRqdnA4US1ESWIwdGVpd0lPVFpEVkV
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611074512DCp
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611055621CJT
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611083656yBs
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083343fdH
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611080507D7r
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075216ChH
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075628bE7
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638040.shtml
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611072514X05
2026-06-09
2026-06-09
Updates
- A major fire broke out at a key Russian oil export hub, which handles about 20% of Russia's seaborne exports, potentially affecting global crude supply.
- Russia officially acknowledged for the first time that Ukrainian attacks have caused domestic fuel supply tensions, with gasoline restrictions in some areas.
Key Events
- Major fire at key Russian oil export hub, affecting 20% of seaborne volume (Google News - World)
- Russia admits Ukrainian attacks cause fuel supply tensions (Der Spiegel International)
Watch / Outlook
If Russia's oil export capacity remains impaired, it will exacerbate global crude market tightness. Combined with Middle East risks, oil price volatility is expected to remain high.
Linkage
Russian oil port fire / crude export reduction / global supply gap
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries / product shortages / European diesel-gasoline spread widening
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Google News - World / ANTARA News / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / RT News / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/48cf8214183e487fa6949cf36219116b/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609084029HkV
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/moskau-gibt-kraftstoff-probleme-infolge-ukrainischer-angriffe-zu-a-07c27dcb-5d20-4b2c-a8e0-c440c4866331
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-09/10636642.shtml
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/8/we-basically-lost-tel-aviv-residents-react-after-israel-iran-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-live-updates-israel-iran-070956663.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-warplane-strikes-disables-oil-tanker-near-oman-crew-of-24-indians-evacuated/articleshow/131592749.cms
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQRG9kN3ZOb251SzM2VWFCMXJlU3ZPZ1l2LXVMamVqSWFRclhBWkZHMDgwcy1xazR5eFU3eUJ5RXB3LUdkUGc3aEVqTHo4a3JSUWpyNk1YTGRVRzdtTTdvSHB5WGpIWUltbE1iVTNiWHdvT3VKay1nY3ZfZE1BLUx4dkFQaTJmd2NObXg2WGc3Q1B4cDFrWC1r?oc=5
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599773/as-tidak-cegat-serangan-rudal-iran-yang-gempur-israel
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-regional-gains.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-shuts-down-following-war-flare-up-with-iran
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly72ryrd1jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/641249-european-drivers-cutting-fuel-consumption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78yd5g9qx0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-trends/global-airline-profits-projected-to-drop-by-half-as-jet-fuel-costs-soar
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/1243130a3f5b4244b8e43fed8a562beb/c.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609074142ueB
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260609060044fJp
- [19] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-raketenbeschuss-trotz-waffenruhe-israel-reagiert-mit-gegenschlaegen-a-ef5e386c-ae72-45c3-8ad6-535a292d461f
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599555/iran-hentikan-serangan-ke-israel-akan-gempur-jika-lebanon-dibom-lagi
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/hormuz-strait-open-transit-fees-043554515.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-energy-oil.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE9aM0R6U0lzaTQ1OXFzRmNlNW9mc3JNSUEyTnloZWM3WGNmNktVVzAtR3lROHJNQ1d6dHo4cV8zVVFycUNlUWJoQ3FmNA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/8/eu-planning-to-add-to-1-5-trillion-sanctions-hit-on-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-06-08
2026-06-08
Updates
- Fading: OPEC+ has increased production four times cumulatively, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran has begun imposing high transit fees on passing vessels, widening the supply gap.
- OPEC+ decided to raise oil production quotas for the fourth time since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to address the largest supply crisis in history.
- Iran began charging transit fees of $1.5-2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing energy transportation costs.
- Iran war stalemate after 100 days: The conflict has lasted over 100 days, causing more than 7,000 deaths, and the Strait is nearly closed, keeping oil prices high.
Key Events
- OPEC+ fourth production quota increase (reported by The Hindu BusinessLine)
- Iran imposes transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz (reported by Yonhap News TV)
- Iran war after 100 days, Strait nearly closed (reported by France 24 #2)
Watch / Outlook
OPEC+ has limited room for production increases, and Iran's transit fee policy along with potential retaliatory actions may further reduce actual supply. Watch for whether the U.S. approves Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities and whether producers like Saudi Arabia can fill the gap.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz closure + Iran transit fees / global crude transport costs surge / refined products and chemicals price increases / imported inflation
OPEC+ production increases offset by geopolitical risks / crude oil inventories continue to decline / oil prices remain high and volatile
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Die Zeit Politics / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #3
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/7/iran-fires-missiles-at-israel-after-it-attacked-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/641154-iran-israel-missile-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/iran-feuert-raketen-auf-israel
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/opec-decides-on-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure/article71073904.ece
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260607-iran-war-100-days
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE0xV3g2OWxXcVhxUjZOZUpZVThPSXNkbW1lcjdqaU5KRkctWHBwRTNOSWp1dy1zSE8xNHpUU1ZpRGVKMm5qVTBJMEx2Znp3d1pUaGcwVg?oc=5
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260607/715b2f909cae4f0e80d03dee28820905/c.html
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608084043ZXF
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl3gx9y32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635998.shtml
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-11-missiles-at-israel-in-first-attack-since-april-truce-regional-airspace-restrictions-widen/articleshow/131574138.cms
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-closes-airspace-after-warning-attacks-against-israel/live-77442602?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/8/iran-war-live-trump-urges-restraint-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608081102Fc9
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606080752231NC
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635991.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE4yaFRvZG5JOHJaV2ZsSllxcUx6WG9HSEdWVC1sQlVDZlRIUmxxb18xVWNmOEZCd0xKa3lraG80ZGw4NnVHcE5vODRwZzVNVkV4V3JscldjQUt0dU9zQ2swZjExcG9IR2E2dG5hb29HekFnYV8x?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/7/irans-attack-on-israel-aims-to-restore-deterrence-but-avoid-return-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260607-isra%C3%ABl-cibl%C3%A9-par-des-tirs-de-missiles-iraniens-les-premiers-depuis-le-cessez-le-feu
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260607-iran-launches-missiles-at-israel-in-first-bombardment-since-fragile-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/rundfunk-iran-meldet-zwei-raketensalven-auf-israel
2026-06-04
2026-06-04
Updates
- Escalation: Ukraine continues attacks on Russian oil facilities, taking about 40% of Russia's refining capacity offline. Gas stations in Moscow and northern Russia begin fuel rationing as shortages spread nationwide.
Key Events
- Fuel rationing at gas stations in Moscow and northern Russia (Google News - World)
Watch / Outlook
If Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries, Russia's domestic fuel crisis may worsen, further pushing up international refined product crack spreads. Watch for potential Russian retaliation.
Linkage
Ukraine attacks refineries / Russian refining capacity declines / refined product supply shortage
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / France 24 #2 / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Google News - World / RT News / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606040527043L3
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz-in-gulf-flare-up-163028785.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-and-bahrain-attacked-as-iran-launches-missile-and-drone-barrage?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260604/5911e51f489f4127b93e816da4c3cb94/c.html
- [5] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/cd5a74e6bbd7f913.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260603-iran-says-no-tangible-progress-in-war-talks-trump-says-deal-close
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/03/43198
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-04/10633942.shtml
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/us/house-russia-ukraine-sanctions-aid.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPSlpZSWlVS1B3RlpKRm5DcjZDc0pKMnBLM2x6NG9UWlM5THVxaksyZ2o2MDRtQjFXcEl5SE1aaTNrZHhiNF9ibUp2WHItTkZmSVFDZW9USDMtTTIxREJoMXZhNVNMdFhocU9RT2ZYd3gtSlJ6RjRmc3Fway1nWDVxNlZNelBMYnlBcUVQaEtGc3pKNlh4SmU3WkM2VzBHRk5DdVJjNmg5TGZaZXZYLUZkVzZqWGIyQ28?oc=5
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640941-gulf-airport-devastate-patriot-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-admin-proposes-broad-new-tariffs-top-trading/story?id=133552819
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260603/0c63de9689184545b5a5ad992cdd15de/c.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-and-russia-draw-closer-amid-opec-upheaval/a-77387950?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/us-moots-12-5-tariff-on-india-53-others-over-forced-labour/articleshow/131494315.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-releases-cctv-footage-of-deadly-iranian-strike-on-airport?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-labels-iran-attack-heinous?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604055025eGh
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604054336IBQ
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPcV9YT3A5dzhhTjBwYTZtM0tQc1JGZkhSZl9JY0FFSWV3eUtxNU1oMHNHQ3piS1VxTnJMb1hwOWJDZ2gwc05BdHFJX1k4ZTI2OE5qUzhoRmJYVWZBZ3lpV3FhVnA2S0s2WklWa3dGczFnRXFmRFpGbUxFTTNlMjFuMlBSM0ljM3hNX21TdzI1SHRxUzJRUVEyM2RSQ054ZERXdWJCc25NXzU1VFpjWmpHSXpoRDZldlk?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQZWtvZ043SmhSOWZFck94VFJscTREUzlfYzZWQUVnWGdDM0V4ZzVXeTZJOUk4ZzN1RWZRWWY1cm5JWkkzNC1lUVM4WEtDMWQ2aHVYNXI3Tk1nZDlGcTdvUHJ0alBGM01kT0xhQXoyNnpLM3loQllhQjJ3N0FaSzFEeg?oc=5
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-denies-impasse-in-iran-talks-after-fresh-strikes-on-gulf-countries
- [24] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260603-iranian-revolutionary-guards-claim-attacks-on-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/briefing/state-of-iran-war.html
- [26] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/f36904fae0a30fb3.html
2026-05-25
2026-05-25
Updates
- Trajectory (stable): Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption traps approximately 1,500-2,000 vessels; reopening timeline uncertain, but peace talks progress provides relief expectations.
- Outlook for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear; large backlog of vessels awaits clearance. (NYT)
Key Events
- Approximately 1,500-2,000 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf - NYT
- Reopening timeline depends on US-Iran agreement progress - NYT
Watch / Outlook
Restoring strait navigation requires clearing mines and coordinating transit plans; normal operations expected to take at least 1-2 months. Short-term energy transport bottlenecks are hard to resolve, keeping tanker freight rates high.
Linkage
Vessel backlog / tanker capacity freeze / freight rate increase / higher energy landed costs
Reopening delay / persistent supply chain bottlenecks / increased import pressure on emerging economies
Sources
Xinhua World / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News Agency / Times of India / RT News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
- [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/global-oil-inventories-to-fall-below-100-days-of-demand-on-hormuz-blockade
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran.html
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809m7g29r7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525084834QL4
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260524-guerre-au-moyen-orient-que-contient-le-protocole-d-accord-entre-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-et-l-iran
- [6] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1068257/as-klaim-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQSjd6U1BqRl9fdVNBbmdTc292V29zNW04b0RWQXBZRXZqeFlnYm1DMDlYeGRUTFVBWEhWbTFUYTVRcHJWNWxvMUoyc0RNcldDZDJCalpJMW5vUkZKTnNGT3ZEdFpWcmRHcFdWYkdFRF9NRHhUb3B6QzQ2b2s2aFRKeEln?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp0040x7po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-us-ends-russia-oil-waiver-implications-for-india/article71018329.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-prepares-military-strikes-against-221519788.html
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580861/as-klaim-ada-kemajuan-soal-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/mission-unaccomplished-trumps-gulf-gamble-runs-aground-as-iran-survives-american-assault/articleshow/131293549.cms
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/640508-us-iran-deal-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260524/fa65dd01d6d84218bb140866f8c9620f/c.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran-deal.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260524-time-is-on-our-side-trump-tempers-expectations-of-a-peace-deal-with-iran
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/world/middleeast/senate-republicans-iran-deal-trump.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260525034445NmC
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBnMHpHTWRhQmlPMGIzMVV4NHYxYU9NMDlabVZvM050d3Fxc3E1ZkpuM0xFbS1tVUI2bW5iSjFRd2o3YmQ4M1NqcWw5VnI1Tjh3MHNlZ0duamNTTkE2TlpvS19UZEZLTWhwd2VIQUZVMDBqNnU1YXBDbtIBfkFVX3lxTE9WOWxkT3BiVzFPVlRQQkpTQlljMkZQNU5TSVRfLXF4cWVFRXRlbzhlSHpkcHczcHgydjB6N3RvMW16b3NsVHl3bEw3UC03QjBUdHlZOWRyaWV3MWRKYjNmTXg2bWpZSlJ3Q0hRVjRJaEU5MTFHOUdUWGlMVWxiQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580831/trump-as-pertahankan-blokade-laut-sampai-iran-teken-kesepakatan-damai
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPM2xoYUpMYWxuUzQ4aWQzaTF4d1RVYjBGUHVfMnhldHpQcXRTVFpvWk1uS2NSRWhHeUFocWxicExGYVhpcG9qOUZ2MmhMU2FCLVJfMkl3WE1xb0ozSWZEMW5HUS1FTWhwUTJ0eDZMT0xNRUVIc1pLSWRsZTNfeXZ2Q2tlOVktQlhFVW96czhxZ3BPTzZzVWtsNC1SN2MwWWR5cDFOWlIwZG1NSWRFdzVqZUhndUYzRzNjLU9Zam5R0gHDAUFVX3lxTE9HdUVDc04tX2pUWl92M3U4Z295cW5maThrNktoN0ZVaFpjN2prRWRtWUZvRjhFXy1CNWVzR2k1bHBKZThTZlJSbVR2VmVwQWd6UWZiSldjaTFfLWNULUFraElGdmFZMDAzb0J2d2xEdUdtaDYyUE0zQU00NVNvU1JQQU5BZmZFMk1ERkd1Z180eV8zMm5
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-turnaround-open-the-straits-close-the-war/articleshow/131293243.cms
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525090851EoQ
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/640524-trump-iran-deal-losers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-23
2026-05-23
Updates
- Trajectory (stable): Although a coal mine accident in China caused casualties, it is a localized event with limited impact on global supply chains.
- Coal mine accident in Changzhi, Shanxi, China, kills 4, traps 90; rescue underway. (Sky News, ABC News)
Key Events
- Shanxi coal mine accident kills 4, traps 90 (ABC News)
Watch / Outlook
The accident may push up domestic coal prices in the short term, but overall impact is manageable; attention needed on whether subsequent regulatory tightening affects production.
Linkage
Coal mine accident / supply disruption expectations / short-term support for coal prices
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Fed / Google News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Times of India / Sky News / BBC News (Business) / The New York Times / France 24 #3
Reference Links
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-23/10626977.shtml
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/irans-intensified-closure-strait-hormuz-150534298.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260522-rubio-urges-more-support-from-nato-allies-help-end-iran-war-mediation-talks-begin
- [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNenRXUWhkWi05T2JSVHQ4WTY0TTVLcmlWSXZ0cENoNEpTamhHcHRRZG1BVzJ2ZFJvYmhLTXEwZUhtdmJTN01CdDBwUnZqT1lMaGhrOUp2QncyZjhsTzhNWjJoMGVPaW5lYkRFQ1ZvSVVFLTdjRHJtZlFsbHd1SFM3N2JvekxPOGNJZHZURmFaNUNCeFU?oc=5
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260523/4f110ca2c5c849be9f9bb086feab17ef/c.html
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kevin-warsh-neuer-fed-chef-im-weissen-haus-vereidigt-a-268dae4a-6f36-452f-9e07-f8f1c3f9056c
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/gas-prices-highest-level-4-years-ahead-memorial/story?id=133219781
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523003218bkx
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640454-trump-plans-change-wedding-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-steps-up-dollar-sales-to-53-billion-to-defend-rupee-in-fy26/articleshow/131270439.cms
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/china-four-killed-and-90-trapped-following-coal-mine-accident-13547200
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz311dq3ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/world/middleeast/iran-ceasefire-us-qatar-pakistan.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260522-choc-p%C3%A9trolier-vs-d%C3%A9ficit-l-impossible-%C3%A9quation
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/economic-confidence-plummets-in-us-amid-iran-war-poll-shows?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523085743BMb
- [19] https://abcnews.com/International/4-dead-90-trapped-coal-mine-accident-northern/story?id=133238116
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523084301zk1
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260522-guerre-au-moyen-orient-un-m%C3%A9diateur-pakistanais-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-des-n%C3%A9gociations-dans-l-impasse
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOdVlHX1dTNEdZNEY1N3VuRDVvR051UFpTem9kNlloY1NiOW9yRVBCUWtUUUJXcW12VWFWbGs5YzlyV2dWWE9FRkIwblhuZFBqaVhKNzhIVnk5R2VSaTRZZ2FjTXRaaWp5UEdhTGhEN3RvOVoyQ29HR29UeDJTWXk2MU83MDB4UQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/pakistans-army-chief-in-iran-as-uss-rubio-says-slight-progress-in-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxQQThBMGFCbXlrNFNIbHFpT2ZvTWNFMDFvMVI4ekMxTTBiZURGczRvR29KMWFiZVFmUWoxQ013ajNkZlNUYk9jYURmcHN1bnpqM0JheW9GQ3pubTYyWWtDdW1HWEFKYzE5bE5PMG9yZTJDd20tTVNQNXp4RlRXLU0yVVJodVo3VmRTVTN3TkhjWUxicnRqZVlSNVU1WDZhVFVwYzZSaGN0dnBjbDRSSmhRam9sb0VscWh5anljZXR3YVZYVHZmcXVyMw?oc=5
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/warning-shot-from-iran-uae-nuclear-plant-attack-from-iraq-sparks-fears-of-wider-gulf-war-as-tehrans-proxies-step-in/articleshow/131264706.cms