Trajectory (Escalating): The strait closure event directly transforms geopolitical risk into an actual supply chain crisis, with rapidly expanding impact scope.; Multiple Chinese merchant ships abandon or are forced to halt transit through the Strait of Hormuz (per Nikkei Asia, Anadolu Agency). Key events: China COSCO ships abandon Strait of Hormuz transit (Nikkei Asia); Europe lowers climate targets in response to energy shock (Reuters) Watch: Monitor global oil inventories, effectiveness of alternative transport routes, and emergency energy policy adjustments by major consumers (e.g., Europe, China).