The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-04-02 07:32 (CN)
THEME TIMELINE
Middle East Conflict
Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, Israel prepares for multi-front war, US increases troop presence.; Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise due to supply risks. Key events: Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN); Iran warns US against ground offensive (DW) Watch: Monitor US ground deployment and Iran's response; conflict may escalate further.
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SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-03-30
Sources
35
Mainland
4
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
31
Official
6
Non-official
29
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
33
Chinese
4
English
16
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: China / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
Google News - World · Overseas / AggregatorFrance 24 #2 · Overseas / MediaAl Jazeera Middle East · Overseas / MediaThe Hindu · Overseas / MediaUkrinform · Overseas / MediaYahoo News - World · Overseas / AggregatorDW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] · Overseas / MediaBBC News (Top) · Overseas / MediaXinhua World · Mainland / OfficialChina News Service · Mainland / OfficialBBC News (Business) · Overseas / MediaRT News · Overseas / Media
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 31, mainland sources = 4.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 16, Chinese-language sources = 4.
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, Israel prepares for multi-front war, US increases troop presence.
  • Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise due to supply risks.
  • Iran attacks US bases causing American casualties, UAE intercepts missiles.
  • Regional leaders meet in Pakistan, attempting diplomatic mediation.
Key Events
  • Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN)
  • Iran warns US against ground offensive (DW)
  • UAE intercepts 58 missiles and drones (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor US ground deployment and Iran's response; conflict may escalate further.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise
Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen
Sources
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com] / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict shows signs of shifting from airstrikes to ground operations, with negotiation deadlock deepening.
  • Iran launches missiles at Israel, injuring six people, claiming to eliminate negotiation hopes (New York Post).
  • The US proposes a 15-point peace plan demanding Iran abandon its nuclear program and limit missile capabilities, rejected by Iran (Xinhua).
  • Israel announces occupation of Lebanese territory up to the Litani River and orders 48-hour intensive airstrikes on Iran (China News citing New York Times).
Key Events
  • Iran missile attack on Israel injures six (New York Post)
  • US 15-point peace plan questioned by Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israeli airstrikes target Iranian defense industry (China News)
Watch / Outlook
US-Iran negotiations unlikely to see breakthroughs in the short term; risk of Strait of Hormuz blockade may persist; monitor whether conflict expands to ground operations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalates / Oil supply risks rise / Oil prices increase / Inflationary pressures mount
Negotiation deadlock / Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Demand for gold and USD increases
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Iranian missile strikes on Israel cause building collapses and casualties, with conflict expanding from localized to broader regional scope.
  • Trump announces a 5-day delay in military strikes against Iran, but U.S.-Israel military operations continue.
  • Israeli Defense Minister states plans to control large areas of southern Lebanon, heightening regional tensions.
  • Iran threatens to attack Israeli forces in Gaza if Israel continues bombing Lebanon.
Key Events
  • Iranian missile strike on Israel causes building collapses (Al Jazeera)
  • Trump delays military strikes against Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israel announces control over southern Lebanon buffer zone (BBC)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor risks of further military escalation, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and reactions from regional countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase
Regional tensions / Oil supply risks / Inflationary pressures increase
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News [www.antaranews.com]
Reference Links
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): From the US ultimatum in late February to the current large-scale military strikes, the conflict has evolved from tension to full-scale escalation, with US-Israel joint operations entering their fourth day.
  • The US military announced strikes on over 1,700 targets in Iran; Israel conducted airstrikes on Tehran and Beirut and destroyed a secret nuclear facility.
  • Iran retaliated by attacking the US embassy in Dubai and Saudi infrastructure, and disrupting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The conflict has resulted in the death of US soldiers in Kuwait, with regional tensions spilling over into Lebanon and Gulf states.
Key Events
  • US Embassy in Dubai Attacked (Al Jazeera)
  • Israel Destroys Iran's Secret Nuclear Facility (Yahoo News)
  • US Military Announces Strikes on Over 1,700 Targets in Iran (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
The conflict is likely to persist; monitor the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, further Iranian retaliation, and reactions from regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge and global inflationary pressure
Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Shift from negotiations and exercises to full-scale military confrontation, with conflict sharply escalating after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.
  • President Trump hints at possible ground troop deployment to Iran and warns the strongest attacks are yet to come (Yonhap News TV).
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and has implemented a blockade (Al Jazeera).
  • Israel launches a new round of airstrikes on Tehran, affecting civilian facilities such as hospitals and residences (Al Jazeera).
Key Events
  • Trump states ground troops have 'no fear,' hinting at possible deployment (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran threatens to burn ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera)
  • Nationwide air raid alerts in Israel following Iranian missile attacks (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
Need to monitor whether the US actually deploys ground troops, escalation of Iranian retaliation, and potential spread of conflict to other Middle Eastern countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge
Expansion of military confrontation / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and US dollar rise
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict gradually escalated from diplomatic red lines to full-scale military confrontation.
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed, Iranian leadership transitioned, interim committee takes over.
  • U.S.-Israel continue attacks, destroying key targets such as Iranian Revolutionary Guard headquarters.
  • Iranian retaliation expands, targeting Israel and U.S. military bases, Strait of Hormuz closed.
Key Events
  • U.S. President Trump announces large-scale military operation against Iran (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in strike, Iranian retaliation causes three U.S. military deaths (CBS News)
  • Oil tankers attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Iran announces closure of the strait (France 24)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor Iran's further retaliatory actions and the election process for new leadership; also track the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping and progress in global diplomatic mediation.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase
Geopolitical risk rise / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold, U.S. dollar increase
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle) [rss.dw.com]
Reference Links