The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-05-17 14:31 (CN)
THEME TIMELINE
Middle East Conflict
美国拒绝了伊朗提出的结束战争的书面方案，表明双方在冲突解决上存在分歧。; 以色列对加沙城发动空袭，目标为哈马斯军事领导人伊兹·丁·哈达德，此人曾策划去年10月7日的袭击。 Key events: 美国拒绝伊朗结束战争书面方案; 以色列空袭加沙目标哈马斯高级军事领导人
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SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-05-16
Sources
53
Mainland
4
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
49
Official
9
Non-official
44
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
51
Chinese
4
English
27
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Australia / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
China News Service · Mainland / OfficialYonhap News TV · Overseas / MediaThe New York Times · Overseas / MediaGoogle News - World · Overseas / AggregatorFrance 24 #2 · Overseas / MediaUK Government News and Communications · Overseas / OfficialRT News · Overseas / MediaYahoo News - World · Overseas / AggregatorAl Jazeera Middle East · Overseas / MediaThe Hindu · Overseas / MediaDW Germany News · Overseas / MediaYonhap News Agency · Overseas / Media
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 49, mainland sources = 4.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 27, Chinese-language sources = 4.
RESEARCH PROJECTION

Research Projection

Linked products: AU Gold / SC Crude Oil
Tracking status: active 12 / review due 12
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest checkpoints
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
Open report
Updates
  • 美国拒绝了伊朗提出的结束战争的书面方案，表明双方在冲突解决上存在分歧。
  • 以色列对加沙城发动空袭，目标为哈马斯军事领导人伊兹·丁·哈达德，此人曾策划去年10月7日的袭击。
  • 以色列对加沙城一栋建筑发动空袭，目标是哈马斯军事领导人伊兹·丁·哈达德。
Key Events
  • 美国拒绝伊朗结束战争书面方案
  • 以色列空袭加沙目标哈马斯高级军事领导人
  • 以色列空袭加沙城建筑，目标哈马斯军事领导人
Linkage
US rejects Iran plan / geopolitical tensions rise / safe-haven demand increases
Geopolitical escalation / safe-haven demand / risk-off
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): From the stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations to the collapse of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, multiple fronts in the Middle East are escalating simultaneously.
  • Trump was shot at a dinner at the Washington Hilton Hotel; the suspect was officially confirmed to have targeted Trump and U.S. officials, possibly diverting U.S. attention from the war with Iran.
  • Israel launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon, killing 14, and issued forced evacuation orders; Hezbollah denied violating the ceasefire, and the ceasefire agreement is effectively dead.
  • Iran's foreign minister traveled to Pakistan to convey ceasefire conditions, but Trump said negotiations were at an impasse; Tehran resumed commercial flights for the first time after the war, and the U.S. urged citizens to leave Iran.
Key Events
  • Trump assassination attempt; suspect wrote a statement before the attack (Yonhap News TV/China News Service)
  • Israel airstrikes on Lebanon kill 14 during ceasefire extension (BBC News (Top)/ORF.at News)
  • Iran plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz and ban Israeli ships (Xinhua World)
Watch / Outlook
Watch whether U.S.-Iran negotiations will be interrupted by the assassination attempt, and the possibility of Israeli ground operations in Lebanon. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade is implemented, crude oil will face a major supply shock.
Linkage
Trump assassination / political uncertainty / safe-haven demand / USD / gold up
Israel-Lebanon conflict escalation / Middle East turmoil / crude oil premium expansion / risk appetite decline
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
Reference Links
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Turning): The US maritime blockade of Iran continues, but the ceasefire agreement provides a brief window for easing regional tensions.
  • Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, effective Thursday (Al Jazeera Middle East).
  • Israeli Prime Minister stated readiness to restart war with Iran, with the US preparing for a new round of talks (Google News - World).
  • Iran threatened to disrupt Gulf trade in response to the US naval blockade (Yahoo News - World).
Key Events
  • Trump announces 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire (Al Jazeera Middle East)
  • Israeli PM prepares for war with Iran (Google News - World)
  • Iran threatens Gulf trade (Yahoo News - World)
Watch / Outlook
Observe implementation of the ceasefire agreement and whether Iran takes retaliatory actions; any breach could quickly push oil prices higher.
Linkage
Ceasefire agreement / Reduced conflict risk / Decreased demand for safe-haven assets and rebound in risk assets
Iranian threats / Gulf trade disruptions / Oil supply shocks and risk-off sentiment
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
Open report
Updates
  • 美国和伊朗代表团将在伊斯兰堡举行和平谈判，旨在结束持续六周的战争。
  • 伊朗为即将举行的美伊停火谈判设定前提条件，美国副总统警告伊朗不要试图玩弄美国。
  • 美国副总统JD万斯警告伊朗不要试图玩弄美国，同时美国与伊朗准备进行高级别会谈，但伊朗方面提出谈判前提条件，包括黎巴嫩停火和资产释放。
Key Events
  • 美伊在伊斯兰堡举行和谈，旨在结束六周战争
  • 伊朗设停火谈判前提条件，美副总统警告勿玩弄美国
  • 美国副总统万斯警告伊朗勿挑衅，中东局势紧张
Linkage
和平谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌、风险资产上涨
美伊谈判僵局 / 中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨避险需求
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
Reference Links
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Ceasefire agreement implementation faces disagreements, Lebanon attacks and Strait of Hormuz restrictions intensify tensions.
  • After U.S.-Iran ceasefire, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely stalled, ceasefire conditions include reopening the strait (NBC News Politics).
  • Israel airstrikes Lebanon, Iran halts oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, clouding ceasefire negotiation prospects (Xinhua World).
  • Middle East ceasefire disagreements arise over whether to include Lebanon, Iran threatens to blockade the strait (Yonhap News TV).
Key Events
  • Iran's post-ceasefire shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled (NBC News Politics)
  • Israel airstrikes Lebanon, casting uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiation prospects (Xinhua World)
  • U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement reached, subsequent direction uncertain (Al Jazeera Middle East)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor whether the ceasefire agreement breaks down, developments in the Lebanon situation, and progress in restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz / higher oil prices / increased safe-haven demand
Ceasefire disagreements / rising geopolitical risk / pressure on risk assets
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
Reference Links
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, Israel prepares for multi-front war, US increases troop presence.
  • Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise due to supply risks.
  • Iran attacks US bases causing American casualties, UAE intercepts missiles.
  • Regional leaders meet in Pakistan, attempting diplomatic mediation.
Key Events
  • Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN)
  • Iran warns US against ground offensive (DW)
  • UAE intercepts 58 missiles and drones (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor US ground deployment and Iran's response; conflict may escalate further.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise
Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen
Sources
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict shows signs of shifting from airstrikes to ground operations, with negotiation deadlock deepening.
  • Iran launches missiles at Israel, injuring six people, claiming to eliminate negotiation hopes (New York Post).
  • The US proposes a 15-point peace plan demanding Iran abandon its nuclear program and limit missile capabilities, rejected by Iran (Xinhua).
  • Israel announces occupation of Lebanese territory up to the Litani River and orders 48-hour intensive airstrikes on Iran (China News citing New York Times).
Key Events
  • Iran missile attack on Israel injures six (New York Post)
  • US 15-point peace plan questioned by Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israeli airstrikes target Iranian defense industry (China News)
Watch / Outlook
US-Iran negotiations unlikely to see breakthroughs in the short term; risk of Strait of Hormuz blockade may persist; monitor whether conflict expands to ground operations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalates / Oil supply risks rise / Oil prices increase / Inflationary pressures mount
Negotiation deadlock / Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Demand for gold and USD increases
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Iranian missile strikes on Israel cause building collapses and casualties, with conflict expanding from localized to broader regional scope.
  • Trump announces a 5-day delay in military strikes against Iran, but U.S.-Israel military operations continue.
  • Israeli Defense Minister states plans to control large areas of southern Lebanon, heightening regional tensions.
  • Iran threatens to attack Israeli forces in Gaza if Israel continues bombing Lebanon.
Key Events
  • Iranian missile strike on Israel causes building collapses (Al Jazeera)
  • Trump delays military strikes against Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israel announces control over southern Lebanon buffer zone (BBC)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor risks of further military escalation, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and reactions from regional countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase
Regional tensions / Oil supply risks / Inflationary pressures increase
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
Reference Links
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): From the US ultimatum in late February to the current large-scale military strikes, the conflict has evolved from tension to full-scale escalation, with US-Israel joint operations entering their fourth day.
  • The US military announced strikes on over 1,700 targets in Iran; Israel conducted airstrikes on Tehran and Beirut and destroyed a secret nuclear facility.
  • Iran retaliated by attacking the US embassy in Dubai and Saudi infrastructure, and disrupting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The conflict has resulted in the death of US soldiers in Kuwait, with regional tensions spilling over into Lebanon and Gulf states.
Key Events
  • US Embassy in Dubai Attacked (Al Jazeera)
  • Israel Destroys Iran's Secret Nuclear Facility (Yahoo News)
  • US Military Announces Strikes on Over 1,700 Targets in Iran (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
The conflict is likely to persist; monitor the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, further Iranian retaliation, and reactions from regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge and global inflationary pressure
Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Shift from negotiations and exercises to full-scale military confrontation, with conflict sharply escalating after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.
  • President Trump hints at possible ground troop deployment to Iran and warns the strongest attacks are yet to come (Yonhap News TV).
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and has implemented a blockade (Al Jazeera).
  • Israel launches a new round of airstrikes on Tehran, affecting civilian facilities such as hospitals and residences (Al Jazeera).
Key Events
  • Trump states ground troops have 'no fear,' hinting at possible deployment (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran threatens to burn ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera)
  • Nationwide air raid alerts in Israel following Iranian missile attacks (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
Need to monitor whether the US actually deploys ground troops, escalation of Iranian retaliation, and potential spread of conflict to other Middle Eastern countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge
Expansion of military confrontation / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and US dollar rise
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict gradually escalated from diplomatic red lines to full-scale military confrontation.
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed, Iranian leadership transitioned, interim committee takes over.
  • U.S.-Israel continue attacks, destroying key targets such as Iranian Revolutionary Guard headquarters.
  • Iranian retaliation expands, targeting Israel and U.S. military bases, Strait of Hormuz closed.
Key Events
  • U.S. President Trump announces large-scale military operation against Iran (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in strike, Iranian retaliation causes three U.S. military deaths (CBS News)
  • Oil tankers attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Iran announces closure of the strait (France 24)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor Iran's further retaliatory actions and the election process for new leadership; also track the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping and progress in global diplomatic mediation.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase
Geopolitical risk rise / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold, U.S. dollar increase
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links