The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-07-02 05:31 (CN)
THEME TIMELINE
Middle East Conflict
Trajectory (Pivoting): US-Iran shifts from ceasefire talks to red-line bargaining; Iran demands preconditions for compliance, talks deadlocked.; Iranian parliament speaker warns that if the US does not fulfill the memorandum of understanding, talks will be suspended, hinting at war preparations (Times of India). Key events: Expectations of US-Iran talks briefly pushed WTI down 1.8% to $69.5 (Yonhap News TV); Iran draws red line: no final agreement before US fulfills commitments (Times of India) Watch: Watch for Qatari mediation progress and actual US action on unfreezing Iranian funds in the next 48 hours; if deadlock persists, oil price volatility will expand.
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SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-07-01
Sources
61
Mainland
4
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
57
Official
9
Non-official
52
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
59
Chinese
4
English
30
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Australia / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
China News Service · Mainland / OfficialYonhap News TV · Overseas / MediaTimes of India · Overseas / MediaGoogle News - World · Overseas / AggregatorAl Jazeera Middle East · Overseas / MediaThe New York Times · Overseas / CommercialGlobal Issues News · Overseas / MediaThe Hindu · Overseas / MediaYahoo News - World · Overseas / AggregatorANTARA News · Overseas / MediaYonhap News Agency · Overseas / MediaDer Spiegel International · Overseas / Media
Source samples reflect configured metadata and references in this report. They are for traceability, not endorsement or investment advice.
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 57, mainland sources = 4.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 30, Chinese-language sources = 4.
RESEARCH PROJECTION

Research Projection

Linked products: AU Gold / SC Crude Oil / EC Europe Container Shipping / BU Bitumen
Tracking status: active 20 / review due 28
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest checkpoints
2026-07-01
2026-07-01
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Pivoting): US-Iran shifts from ceasefire talks to red-line bargaining; Iran demands preconditions for compliance, talks deadlocked.
  • Iranian parliament speaker warns that if the US does not fulfill the memorandum of understanding, talks will be suspended, hinting at war preparations (Times of India).
  • Iranian negotiator reiterates the 60-day free passage period for the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing sovereignty is non-negotiable (Yonhap News TV).
  • Iran and Oman establish a joint Hormuz committee; ship traffic in the strait surges, but framework remains undecided (The Hindu).
Key Events
  • Expectations of US-Iran talks briefly pushed WTI down 1.8% to $69.5 (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran draws red line: no final agreement before US fulfills commitments (Times of India)
  • Iranian speaker says US has fully lifted maritime blockade on Iran (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
Watch for Qatari mediation progress and actual US action on unfreezing Iranian funds in the next 48 hours; if deadlock persists, oil price volatility will expand.
Linkage
US-Iran negotiation deadlock / supply risk premium / oil price rebound
Strait of Hormuz transit dispute / tanker insurance and freight costs rise / energy cost pass-through
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Global Issues News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News Agency / Der Spiegel International
Reference Links
2026-06-25
2026-06-25
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Pivoting): After the US-Iran interim agreement, the Strait resumes passage, but fee disputes, lack of trust, and war funding requests shift the situation toward an unstable stalemate.
  • Oman opens temporary shipping lane (Xinhua World), based on a 60-day memorandum of understanding, ensuring free passage for vessels.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio (Korea Times) and Trump himself state that Iran has guaranteed no transit fees, but it is unclear whether this will continue after 60 days.
  • Trump requests $87 billion in emergency war funding from Congress (BBC News), primarily targeting Iran, but faces congressional resistance.
Key Events
  • Oman opens temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz (Xinhua World)
  • Rubio: Strait of Hormuz transit fees will not be implemented (Korea Times)
  • Trump requests $87 billion from Congress, mainly for emergency war spending on Iran (BBC News)
Watch / Outlook
Focus on the US-Iran nuclear talks on June 30 and whether Congress will approve war funding. Any unexpected event could cause oil prices to spike.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz passage resumes / oil prices fall / inflation expectations decline
War funding request / Middle East tensions / demand for safe-haven assets
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics
Reference Links
2026-06-24
2026-06-24
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Although the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed traffic after a U.S.-Iran memorandum, Iran claims management rights and suggests possible tolls. The UN begins evacuating 11,000 crew members, with tensions rising rather than falling.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Rubio explicitly opposes tolls, demanding free passage. U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland fail to reach agreement.
  • Pentagon requests approximately $80 billion in war funds for Iran, signaling expectations of prolonged conflict, but the Senate passes a resolution constraining presidential military action, showing policy division.
Key Events
  • UN begins evacuation of 11,000 stranded crew in Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera)
  • Pentagon requests approximately $80 billion in Iran war funds from Congress (Yahoo News)
  • U.S. Senate passes resolution requiring Trump to halt military action against Iran (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
Focus on follow-up U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland and Iran's specific stance on tolls. Short-term Strait risks are hard to dissipate, and energy premiums will persist.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / tolls / oil tanker disruption / crude oil / LNG price surge
U.S. war fund request / risk aversion rises / capital flows into gold / dollar
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / BBC News (Top) / Die Presse / La Libre - International Europe / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / DW German News Service / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-06-06
2026-06-06
Open report
Updates
  • 美军击落伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡发射的无人机，加剧中东紧张局势，威胁全球石油运输要道。
  • 美军在霍尔木兹海峡附近打击了伊朗无人机和雷达设施，称其威胁地区海上交通。
  • 美军在霍尔木兹海峡击落4架伊朗无人机，并空袭伊朗沿海雷达站，加剧中东紧张局势，可能影响能源运输安全。
Key Events
  • 美军击落伊朗飞向霍尔木兹海峡无人机
  • 美军打击伊朗无人机及雷达设施
  • 美军击落伊朗无人机并空袭雷达站
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz disruption / oil supply risk / crude price spike
Strait of Hormuz disruption / oil supply risk / crude & LNG prices up
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia / BBC News (Business) / RT News
Reference Links
2026-06-05
2026-06-05
Open report
Updates
  • Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, but Hezbollah rejected the framework, and Israeli forces began withdrawing from southern Lebanon.
  • Iran attacked Kuwait airport, and US forces launched strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating Gulf tensions.
  • The EU proposed expanding its naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, and the US pressured Oman to sever ties with Iran.
Key Events
  • Gulf tensions escalate: Iran attacks Kuwait, US strikes near Hormuz (Google News - World)
  • Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire (Al Jazeera Middle East)
  • EU proposes expanding naval mission to Strait of Hormuz (RT News)
Watch / Outlook
The Middle East situation remains highly uncertain, with ceasefire implementation facing obstacles. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, and oil price volatility stays elevated.
Linkage
Iran attacks Kuwait / risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption / oil supply shock
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire / Hezbollah rejection / geopolitical risk premium rebounds
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / The New York Times
Reference Links
2026-06-01
2026-06-01
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (escalating): The Strait of Hormuz blockade has lasted nearly three weeks, with an average of only 3 ships per day passing under US military guidance, shipping volumes down over 95% from pre-war levels (Yonhap News TV/New York Times).
  • Trump sent back the revised US-Iran agreement, demanding stronger nuclear terms and wording on reopening the Strait, and publicly warned of a 'military solution' if negotiations fail (Yahoo News/Times of India).
  • Israel launched its largest ground advance into Lebanon in years, capturing the southern gateway Beaufort Castle (Al Jazeera/China News Service).
  • Iran partially resumed natural gas production at the South Pars field but still claims it does not trust the US (Al Jazeera/The Hindu).
Key Events
  • Average of 3 ships per day pass through Strait of Hormuz under US naval guidance (Yonhap News TV)
  • Trump reveals key concessions to Iran, warns of military solution if deal fails (Yahoo News)
  • Israel launches largest ground advance into Lebanon in years (Al Jazeera)
Watch / Outlook
US-Iran negotiations have entered a critical phase. Trump's demand to modify the agreement details may further delay the process. If talks collapse, Israel's expanded operations in southern Lebanon could trigger a broader conflict. Whether the Strait of Hormuz blockade will be lifted militarily remains the biggest variable.
Linkage
Strait of Hormuz blockade / global oil supply shortage / crude oil / product prices rise
Israel-Lebanon conflict escalation / regional instability / safe-haven demand and risk premium rise simultaneously
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / The New York Times / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Times of India / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency
Reference Links
2026-05-22
2026-05-22
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): US Secretary of State Rubio warns that if Iran proceeds with imposing transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, a diplomatic agreement will be impossible.
  • US Central Command announces that the blockade of Iranian ports has caused 94 commercial vessels to change course (China News Service).
  • Iran releases a map claiming supervisory rights over more than 22,000 square kilometers of waters in the Strait of Hormuz (BBC).
  • The Iran war drives up energy costs, accelerating the contraction of eurozone business activity in May and intensifying inflationary pressures (France 24).
Key Events
  • US warns Iran that imposing Strait of Hormuz transit fees will make diplomatic agreement impossible (Yonhap News TV)
  • US blockade of Iranian ports diverts 94 commercial vessels (China News Service)
  • Iran war impacts European economy, slowing growth and soaring prices (France 24)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor progress in US-Iran diplomatic negotiations and actual operations in the Strait of Hormuz; Pakistan's visit to Iran may introduce variables.
Linkage
Iran controls Strait of Hormuz / Risk of oil supply disruption / Energy price surge
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Kremlin President News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / KBS World News / BBC News (Business) / Times of India
Reference Links
2026-05-16
2026-05-16
Open report
Updates
  • 美国拒绝了伊朗提出的结束战争的书面方案，表明双方在冲突解决上存在分歧。
  • 以色列对加沙城发动空袭，目标为哈马斯军事领导人伊兹·丁·哈达德，此人曾策划去年10月7日的袭击。
  • 以色列对加沙城一栋建筑发动空袭，目标是哈马斯军事领导人伊兹·丁·哈达德。
Key Events
  • 美国拒绝伊朗结束战争书面方案
  • 以色列空袭加沙目标哈马斯高级军事领导人
  • 以色列空袭加沙城建筑，目标哈马斯军事领导人
Linkage
US rejects Iran plan / geopolitical tensions rise / safe-haven demand increases
Geopolitical escalation / safe-haven demand / risk-off
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / The New York Times / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / UK Government News and Communications / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / DW Germany News / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-04-27
2026-04-27
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): From the stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations to the collapse of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, multiple fronts in the Middle East are escalating simultaneously.
  • Trump was shot at a dinner at the Washington Hilton Hotel; the suspect was officially confirmed to have targeted Trump and U.S. officials, possibly diverting U.S. attention from the war with Iran.
  • Israel launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon, killing 14, and issued forced evacuation orders; Hezbollah denied violating the ceasefire, and the ceasefire agreement is effectively dead.
  • Iran's foreign minister traveled to Pakistan to convey ceasefire conditions, but Trump said negotiations were at an impasse; Tehran resumed commercial flights for the first time after the war, and the U.S. urged citizens to leave Iran.
Key Events
  • Trump assassination attempt; suspect wrote a statement before the attack (Yonhap News TV/China News Service)
  • Israel airstrikes on Lebanon kill 14 during ceasefire extension (BBC News (Top)/ORF.at News)
  • Iran plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz and ban Israeli ships (Xinhua World)
Watch / Outlook
Watch whether U.S.-Iran negotiations will be interrupted by the assassination attempt, and the possibility of Israeli ground operations in Lebanon. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade is implemented, crude oil will face a major supply shock.
Linkage
Trump assassination / political uncertainty / safe-haven demand / USD / gold up
Israel-Lebanon conflict escalation / Middle East turmoil / crude oil premium expansion / risk appetite decline
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / The New York Times / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / El Mundo - International News / Die Zeit Politics / El País Internacional
Reference Links
2026-04-17
2026-04-17
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Turning): The US maritime blockade of Iran continues, but the ceasefire agreement provides a brief window for easing regional tensions.
  • Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, effective Thursday (Al Jazeera Middle East).
  • Israeli Prime Minister stated readiness to restart war with Iran, with the US preparing for a new round of talks (Google News - World).
  • Iran threatened to disrupt Gulf trade in response to the US naval blockade (Yahoo News - World).
Key Events
  • Trump announces 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire (Al Jazeera Middle East)
  • Israeli PM prepares for war with Iran (Google News - World)
  • Iran threatens Gulf trade (Yahoo News - World)
Watch / Outlook
Observe implementation of the ceasefire agreement and whether Iran takes retaliatory actions; any breach could quickly push oil prices higher.
Linkage
Ceasefire agreement / Reduced conflict risk / Decreased demand for safe-haven assets and rebound in risk assets
Iranian threats / Gulf trade disruptions / Oil supply shocks and risk-off sentiment
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / Australian Prime Minister's Office - Media / The Korea Times / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East
Reference Links
2026-04-11
2026-04-11
Open report
Updates
  • 美国和伊朗代表团将在伊斯兰堡举行和平谈判，旨在结束持续六周的战争。
  • 伊朗为即将举行的美伊停火谈判设定前提条件，美国副总统警告伊朗不要试图玩弄美国。
  • 美国副总统JD万斯警告伊朗不要试图玩弄美国，同时美国与伊朗准备进行高级别会谈，但伊朗方面提出谈判前提条件，包括黎巴嫩停火和资产释放。
Key Events
  • 美伊在伊斯兰堡举行和谈，旨在结束六周战争
  • 伊朗设停火谈判前提条件，美副总统警告勿玩弄美国
  • 美国副总统万斯警告伊朗勿挑衅，中东局势紧张
Linkage
和平谈判进展 / 中东地缘风险降低 / 油价下跌、风险资产上涨
美伊谈判僵局 / 中东紧张升级 / 油价上涨避险需求
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Ukrinform / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Der Spiegel International / Times of India / The Independent
Reference Links
2026-04-10
2026-04-10
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Ceasefire agreement implementation faces disagreements, Lebanon attacks and Strait of Hormuz restrictions intensify tensions.
  • After U.S.-Iran ceasefire, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely stalled, ceasefire conditions include reopening the strait (NBC News Politics).
  • Israel airstrikes Lebanon, Iran halts oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, clouding ceasefire negotiation prospects (Xinhua World).
  • Middle East ceasefire disagreements arise over whether to include Lebanon, Iran threatens to blockade the strait (Yonhap News TV).
Key Events
  • Iran's post-ceasefire shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled (NBC News Politics)
  • Israel airstrikes Lebanon, casting uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiation prospects (Xinhua World)
  • U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement reached, subsequent direction uncertain (Al Jazeera Middle East)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor whether the ceasefire agreement breaks down, developments in the Lebanon situation, and progress in restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz / higher oil prices / increased safe-haven demand
Ceasefire disagreements / rising geopolitical risk / pressure on risk assets
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / NPR Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / The Hindu / NBC News Politics / Yonhap News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Deutsche Welle German News / Google News - World / Ukrinform / Federal Register
Reference Links
2026-03-30
2026-03-30
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict enters its 30th day, Israel prepares for multi-front war, US increases troop presence.
  • Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise due to supply risks.
  • Iran attacks US bases causing American casualties, UAE intercepts missiles.
  • Regional leaders meet in Pakistan, attempting diplomatic mediation.
Key Events
  • Israel prepares for multi-front war (CNN)
  • Iran warns US against ground offensive (DW)
  • UAE intercepts 58 missiles and drones (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor US ground deployment and Iran's response; conflict may escalate further.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz closure / Oil supply disruption / Oil price rise
Expansion of military operations / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and USD strengthen
Sources
Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Ukrinform / Yahoo News - World / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-26
2026-03-26
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict shows signs of shifting from airstrikes to ground operations, with negotiation deadlock deepening.
  • Iran launches missiles at Israel, injuring six people, claiming to eliminate negotiation hopes (New York Post).
  • The US proposes a 15-point peace plan demanding Iran abandon its nuclear program and limit missile capabilities, rejected by Iran (Xinhua).
  • Israel announces occupation of Lebanese territory up to the Litani River and orders 48-hour intensive airstrikes on Iran (China News citing New York Times).
Key Events
  • Iran missile attack on Israel injures six (New York Post)
  • US 15-point peace plan questioned by Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israeli airstrikes target Iranian defense industry (China News)
Watch / Outlook
US-Iran negotiations unlikely to see breakthroughs in the short term; risk of Strait of Hormuz blockade may persist; monitor whether conflict expands to ground operations.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalates / Oil supply risks rise / Oil prices increase / Inflationary pressures mount
Negotiation deadlock / Risk-off sentiment intensifies / Demand for gold and USD increases
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / RT News / Ukrinform
Reference Links
2026-03-25
2026-03-25
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Iranian missile strikes on Israel cause building collapses and casualties, with conflict expanding from localized to broader regional scope.
  • Trump announces a 5-day delay in military strikes against Iran, but U.S.-Israel military operations continue.
  • Israeli Defense Minister states plans to control large areas of southern Lebanon, heightening regional tensions.
  • Iran threatens to attack Israeli forces in Gaza if Israel continues bombing Lebanon.
Key Events
  • Iranian missile strike on Israel causes building collapses (Al Jazeera)
  • Trump delays military strikes against Iran (Xinhua)
  • Israel announces control over southern Lebanon buffer zone (BBC)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor risks of further military escalation, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and reactions from regional countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Risk-off sentiment rises / Oil and gold prices increase
Regional tensions / Oil supply risks / Inflationary pressures increase
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / UNRIC France / Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety Information / U.S. Treasury OFAC Recent Actions / ANTARA News
Reference Links
2026-03-04
2026-03-04
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): From the US ultimatum in late February to the current large-scale military strikes, the conflict has evolved from tension to full-scale escalation, with US-Israel joint operations entering their fourth day.
  • The US military announced strikes on over 1,700 targets in Iran; Israel conducted airstrikes on Tehran and Beirut and destroyed a secret nuclear facility.
  • Iran retaliated by attacking the US embassy in Dubai and Saudi infrastructure, and disrupting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The conflict has resulted in the death of US soldiers in Kuwait, with regional tensions spilling over into Lebanon and Gulf states.
Key Events
  • US Embassy in Dubai Attacked (Al Jazeera)
  • Israel Destroys Iran's Secret Nuclear Facility (Yahoo News)
  • US Military Announces Strikes on Over 1,700 Targets in Iran (Ukrinform)
Watch / Outlook
The conflict is likely to persist; monitor the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, further Iranian retaliation, and reactions from regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price surge and global inflationary pressure
Rising geopolitical risk / Intensified risk-off sentiment / Increased demand for gold and the US dollar
Sources
Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / RT News / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top)
Reference Links
2026-03-03
2026-03-03
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalating): Shift from negotiations and exercises to full-scale military confrontation, with conflict sharply escalating after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.
  • President Trump hints at possible ground troop deployment to Iran and warns the strongest attacks are yet to come (Yonhap News TV).
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and has implemented a blockade (Al Jazeera).
  • Israel launches a new round of airstrikes on Tehran, affecting civilian facilities such as hospitals and residences (Al Jazeera).
Key Events
  • Trump states ground troops have 'no fear,' hinting at possible deployment (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran threatens to burn ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera)
  • Nationwide air raid alerts in Israel following Iranian missile attacks (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
Need to monitor whether the US actually deploys ground troops, escalation of Iranian retaliation, and potential spread of conflict to other Middle Eastern countries.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Strait of Hormuz blockade risk / Global oil price surge
Expansion of military confrontation / Increased safe-haven demand / Gold and US dollar rise
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Google News - World / China News Service / JETRO Business News
Reference Links
2026-03-02
2026-03-02
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Escalation): Conflict gradually escalated from diplomatic red lines to full-scale military confrontation.
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed, Iranian leadership transitioned, interim committee takes over.
  • U.S.-Israel continue attacks, destroying key targets such as Iranian Revolutionary Guard headquarters.
  • Iranian retaliation expands, targeting Israel and U.S. military bases, Strait of Hormuz closed.
Key Events
  • U.S. President Trump announces large-scale military operation against Iran (Yonhap News TV)
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in strike, Iranian retaliation causes three U.S. military deaths (CBS News)
  • Oil tankers attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Iran announces closure of the strait (France 24)
Watch / Outlook
Monitor Iran's further retaliatory actions and the election process for new leadership; also track the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping and progress in global diplomatic mediation.
Linkage
Middle East conflict escalation / Oil supply disruption / Oil price increase
Geopolitical risk rise / Safe-haven asset demand increase / Gold, U.S. dollar increase
Sources
Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / Xinhua World / RT News / China News Service / France 24 #3 / France 24 #2 / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links