The ScopeGlobal Macro
2026-09-15 18:47 (CN)
THEME TIMELINE
Demand Shock
The University of Michigan's preliminary US consumer sentiment index for September fell to 47.8, declining for a second consecutive month; one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, and longer-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4%. The survey mentioned the rebound in fuel prices and trade tensions... (Xinhua Finance) Key events: US September preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8, inflation expectations rose to 4.6% (Xinhua Finance)
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SOURCE COVERAGE

Source Coverage

Latest Update: 2026-09-12
Sources
50
Mainland
3
HK/Macau/Taiwan
0
Overseas
47
Official
4
Non-official
46
Aggregators
2
Original-reporting Preferred
48
Chinese
3
English
23
Reference Links
200
Countries / Regions: Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
Sample Sources
Xinhua Finance · Mainland / OfficialFrance 24 #2 · Overseas / MediaThe New York Times · Overseas / CommercialABC News · Overseas / MediaAl Jazeera Middle East · Overseas / MediaBBC News (Business) · Overseas / MediaYahoo News - World · Overseas / AggregatorRT News · Overseas / MediaBBC News (Top) · Overseas / MediaThe Hindu · Overseas / MediaANTARA News Jawa Timur · Overseas / MediaUK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office · Overseas / Official
Source samples reflect configured metadata and references in this report. They are for traceability, not endorsement or investment advice.
COVERAGE GAPS

Coverage Gaps

Rule-based observations derived from source mix only.
Coverage leans overseas
WARN
In this window, overseas sources = 47, mainland sources = 3.
English coverage exceeds Chinese
WARN
In this window, English-language sources = 23, Chinese-language sources = 3.
RESEARCH PROJECTION

Research Projection

Linked products: SC Crude Oil / BU Bitumen / PS Polysilicon / AU Gold / AG Silver / PM Wheat
Tracking status: active 35 / review due 14 / reviewed 35
Lifecycle review: continued · reporting remains dense
Latest checkpoints
2026-09-12
2026-09-12
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Updates
  • The University of Michigan's preliminary US consumer sentiment index for September fell to 47.8, declining for a second consecutive month; one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, and longer-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4%. The survey mentioned the rebound in fuel prices and trade tensions... (Xinhua Finance)
Key Events
  • US September preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8, inflation expectations rose to 4.6% (Xinhua Finance)
Linkage
Sentiment declines / inflation expectations rise / interest rate expectations disturbed
Sources
Xinhua Finance / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / ABC News / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / Yahoo News - World / RT News / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-08-21
2026-08-21
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (shift): India turns to sugar imports for the first time in a decade, opening stocks may fall 20%, global sugar market shifts from surplus expectations to deficit trading.
  • India imports 1 million tonnes of sugar for the first time in a decade to address domestic supply shortage (Times of India).
  • India's opening stocks may fall 20%, import decision provides new demand support for global sugar prices.
Key Events
  • India imports million tonnes of sugar for first time in a decade (Source: Times of India)
Watch / Outlook
Watch India's actual purchase pace and monsoon; if stocks continue to decline, additional import quotas may be added, supporting international sugar prices.
Linkage
India imports / global sugar demand rises / sugar prices up
India stocks decline / import dependence rises / Asian sugar benchmark strengthens
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / France 24 #3 / The Hindu / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News / BBC News (Top) / BBC News (Business) / The New York Times / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-08-19
2026-08-19
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Updates
  • Trajectory (stable): Japan's rice oversupply persists, prices fall below production costs, but no clear policy intervention signals yet.
  • Japanese rice prices have fallen 40%, now below production costs, mainly due to oversupply (Nikkei Asia).
Key Events
  • Japanese rice prices fall 40%, below production costs (Nikkei Asia)
Watch / Outlook
Watch whether the Japanese government introduces inventory adjustment or production cut support policies, and their spillover effects on Asian agricultural prices.
Linkage
Rice oversupply / farmer income decline / agricultural output adjustment / prices continue to seek bottom
Sources
China News Service / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Yahoo News - World / RT News / The New York Times / Die Zeit Politics / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Business) / Times of India / Deutsche Welle German News / Nikkei Asia / France 24 #3
Reference Links
2026-08-15
2026-08-15
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Updates
  • Trajectory (shift): The narrative of export/external demand resilience shifts to weakening US domestic demand; retail data breaks expectations of consumer resilience.
  • US July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, the largest drop in a year, far below the expected +0.1% (China News Service; Xinhua Finance).
  • Online sales fell 2.2% month-over-month, autos and parts -1.8%, gas stations -0.9%, with weakness across multiple categories (Xinhua Finance).
  • Consumers remain squeezed by persistent inflation and rising food and housing costs, with spending clearly cooling (The New York Times).
Key Events
  • US July retail sales -0.6% month-over-month (China News Service/Commerce Department preliminary)
  • Online and auto sales -2.2%/-1.8% respectively (Xinhua Finance)
  • Retail sales post largest drop in over a year (The New York Times)
Watch / Outlook
Watch August Michigan consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and subsequent spending data; if consumption continues to weaken, markets may increase bets on Fed rate cuts.
Linkage
Retail sales↓ / consumer demand↓ / corporate earnings expectations↓ / equities under pressure
Weak consumption / downward inflation pressure / expectations of lower US Treasury yields / weaker dollar
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Google News - World / RT News / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / ABC News
Reference Links
2026-08-08
2026-08-08
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Updates
  • U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, indicating an unexpected contraction in the labor market. (ABC News)
Key Events
  • U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fall by 23,000 (ABC News)
Linkage
US jobs miss / Fed rate cut expectations / USD down, Gold up
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / Yahoo News - World / Tagesschau / Global News / El País Internacional / The New Indian Express / BBC News (Business) / Ukrinform / ABC News / The Independent / Sky News / n-tv Politik / Al Jazeera Middle East / Le Monde International
Reference Links
2026-08-02
2026-08-02
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Updates
  • China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in July, indicating weakening economic recovery momentum, which may affect commodity demand. (Yahoo News - World)
Key Events
  • China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracts in July (Yahoo News - World)
Linkage
China manufacturing PMI contraction / lower commodity demand expectations / commodity prices under pressure
Sources
Google News - World / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / La Croix / Valor Econômico Politics / n-tv Politik / Le Monde International / El País Internacional / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / 20 Minutes Politique / Times of India / ORF.at News / ANTARA News #2 / Anadolu Agency Politics
Reference Links
2026-08-01
2026-08-01
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Updates
  • The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July in the US came in at 55.2, higher than expected and the previous reading, improving for the second consecutive month, mainly driven by stabilizing oil prices. (Yonhap News TV)
Key Events
  • US July Michigan consumer sentiment index 55.2, beats expectations (Yonhap News TV)
Linkage
Consumer sentiment ↑ / demand outlook ↑ / oil prices ↑
Sources
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The New York Times / RT News / Nikkei Asia / ABC News / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Agency / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle)
Reference Links
2026-07-28
2026-07-28
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Updates
  • Trajectory (escalation): International oil prices plunged over 7% on the 27th, with WTI closing at $82.61/barrel and Brent at $88.36/barrel.
  • Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan plummeted nearly 60%, reflecting weak global demand (Source: China News Service).
  • The oil price plunge occurred against a backdrop of high supply risks, with market concerns about economic recession outweighing supply-side factors.
Key Events
  • International oil prices plunge over 7% on the 27th (Xinhua Finance)
  • Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan plummet 60% (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
Macro demand outlook remains the dominant factor for commodity markets, but geopolitical risks may provide short-term bottom support.
Linkage
Demand concerns / oil price plunge / risk asset sell-off
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / France 24 #2 / Nikkei Asia / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / The New York Times / ABC News / ANTARA News / Der Spiegel International / Global Issues News / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
2026-07-17
2026-07-17
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Updates
  • Trajectory (shift): Gold prices had been trading high, but on the evening of July 16, gold fell below $4,000, recording the largest single-day drop in recent times, with market sentiment turning.
  • London spot gold hit a low of $3,973.41 per ounce, COMEX gold hit a low of $3,977.1, a drop of over 2% (China News Service).
Key Events
  • International gold prices fall below $4,000 mark; spot gold touches $3,973 (China News Service)
Watch / Outlook
The sharp drop in gold prices may be due to a liquidity squeeze or profit-taking. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, a rebound is possible. Focus on dollar trends and ETF holdings changes.
Linkage
Gold price plunge / safe-haven asset confidence shaken / funds may flow to dollar or Treasuries
Sources
Xinhua World / China News Service / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ABC News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia
Reference Links
2026-07-07
2026-07-07
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Updates
  • Trajectory (fading): Saudi Arabia sharply cut its August crude oil price for Asian customers by $11/barrel, the largest reduction in 20 years, reflecting weak demand.
  • Saudi price cuts suggest insufficient purchasing willingness from Asian refineries. Spot premiums have fallen after geopolitical tensions eased.
Key Events
  • Saudi Arabia sharply cuts August crude oil price for Asia by $11 (Times of India)
Watch / Outlook
Signals of weak Asian demand may suppress oil prices, but attention should be paid to Chinese import data and refinery utilization rates.
Linkage
Weak Asian demand / Saudi price cuts / widening of crude futures near-month discount
Sources
The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Tagesschau / Kyodo News English / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / Prime Minister of Canada - Statements / El Mundo - International News
Reference Links
2026-07-01
2026-07-01
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Updates
  • South Korea's June exports exceeded $100 billion for the first time, setting a new record. (Yonhap News Agency)
Key Events
  • South Korea's June exports surpass $100 billion for first time (Yonhap News Agency)
Linkage
Strong Korean exports / Global demand signal / Risk appetite boost
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Global Issues News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News Agency / Der Spiegel International
Reference Links
2026-06-25
2026-06-25
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Updates
  • Trajectory (Pivoting): Previously strong Chinese consumption data, but on the 24th, global commodities experienced a collective sell-off, with market sentiment turning sharply bearish.
  • International oil prices fell significantly on the 24th (Xinhua Finance), with WTI closing at $70.34/barrel and Brent at $73.74/barrel.
  • International gold, silver, and oil prices collectively plunged (China News Service).
  • London spot gold fell below $4,000/ounce (Xinhua Finance), hitting a new low since November 2025.
Key Events
  • International oil prices fell significantly on the 24th (Xinhua Finance)
  • International gold, silver, and oil prices collectively plunged (China News Service)
  • London spot gold fell below $4,000 (Xinhua Finance)
Watch / Outlook
A stronger US dollar and rate hike expectations are the main suppressing factors. If the US-Iran agreement holds, oil prices may decline further, but geopolitical risks cannot be fully eliminated.
Linkage
Stronger US dollar / gold price pressure / deleveraging sell-off
Risk appetite deterioration / commodity sell-off / transmission to equity markets
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics
Reference Links
2026-06-22
2026-06-22
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Updates
  • Fertilizer, a key input for nearly all food production, has seen sharp price increases, which could further raise consumer food bills. (Yahoo News - World)
Key Events
  • Fertilizer prices surge, intensifying global food inflation pressure (Yahoo News - World)
Linkage
Fertilizer price surge / higher food production costs / consumer food inflation
Sources
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / RT News / Google News - World / Times of India / ANTARA News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Die Zeit Politics / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #2
Reference Links
2026-06-17
2026-06-17
Open report
Updates
  • International oil prices fell sharply on June 16, with both NYMEX light crude and Brent crude futures dropping over 5%. (Xinhua Finance)
Key Events
  • International oil prices plunge over 5% on June 16 (Xinhua Finance)
Linkage
Oil price plunge / demand concerns / risk assets under pressure
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / ORF.at News / Google News - World / Die Zeit Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / RT News / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / El País Internacional
Reference Links
2026-06-06
2026-06-06
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Divergent): Strong overseas demand for Chinese solar panels contrasts with US tech stock plunge reflecting dual concerns over tech demand and interest rate environment.
  • China's solar module exports in Jan-Apr rose 43% year-on-year; April alone surged 267% year-on-year (China News Service).
  • New York stock indices fell sharply, with the tech sector leading the decline at 5.78% (Xinhua Finance).
Key Events
  • China solar exports surge 267% (China News Service)
  • US stock indices fall sharply, tech leads decline (Xinhua Finance)
  • Nasdaq records largest single-day drop since early 2025 (BBC Business)
Watch / Outlook
Watch the impact of US-China tech decoupling on global supply chains and revisions to US earnings expectations.
Linkage
Strong China solar exports / Clean energy demand resilience / Positive for related commodities and trade
US tech stock plunge / Risk appetite deterioration / Capital rotation to defensive assets
Sources
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Times of India / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia / BBC News (Business) / RT News
Reference Links
2026-06-05
2026-06-05
Open report
Updates
  • International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.1% to $93.04/barrel and Brent down 2.84% to $95.03/barrel.
  • The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire eased Middle East supply concerns, but Iran's attack on Kuwait and US retaliation limited the decline.
Key Events
  • International oil prices fell significantly on the 4th (Xinhua Finance)
  • Israel-Lebanon ceasefire leads to drop in international oil prices (Yonhap News TV)
Watch / Outlook
Oil prices will be volatile in the short term due to fluctuating Middle East situations. Focus on Strait of Hormuz transit conditions and OPEC+ moves.
Linkage
Middle East ceasefire / supply risk eased / oil price decline
Iran attacks Kuwait / Strait of Hormuz risk / oil price rebound
Sources
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / The New York Times
Reference Links
2026-06-01
2026-06-01
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (stable): South Korea's May exports surged 53% year-on-year to a record $87.8 billion, with chip exports reaching a record $37.2 billion (Yonhap News Agency).
  • This indicates strong global semiconductor demand, but overall export growth is partly affected by base effects and price factors.
Key Events
  • South Korea's May exports up 53% year-on-year to $87.8 billion, record high (Yonhap News Agency)
  • South Korea's May chip exports hit record high of $37.2 billion (Yonhap News Agency)
Watch / Outlook
South Korea's export data provides an optimistic signal for global economic demand, but sustainability needs to be monitored.
Linkage
South Korea export surge / global trade recovery expectations / brief improvement in risk sentiment
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / The New York Times / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Hindu / Times of India / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency
Reference Links
2026-05-28
2026-05-28
Open report
Updates
  • Pivoting: Driven by peace talk expectations, international oil prices plunged over 5% on the 27th, with WTI falling below $90.
  • WTI crude oil futures closed down 5.55% at $88.68/barrel; Brent closed down 5.31% at $94.29/barrel (Xinhua/Yonhap).
  • The decline was the largest in a month, driven by peace talk expectations and demand concerns.
Key Events
  • International oil prices fell sharply over 5% on the 27th (Xinhua)
Watch / Outlook
If peace talks make substantial progress, oil prices may face further pressure; but geopolitical risks remain, limiting downside momentum.
Linkage
Peace talk expectations / sanctions relief expectations / oil price decline
Risk appetite recovery / commodities under pressure
Sources
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World
Reference Links
2026-05-22
2026-05-22
Open report
Updates
  • Trajectory (Fading): Walmart warns that US consumers are cutting spending due to rising gasoline prices, expecting further slowdown in the coming months (BBC).
Key Events
  • Walmart warns US consumers cut spending due to rising oil prices (BBC News (Business))
Watch / Outlook
The dampening effect of high oil prices on consumption may spread to other retail sectors; monitor US retail data and consumer confidence.
Linkage
Oil price increase / Gasoline price rise / Consumer spending cuts / Demand slowdown
Sources
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Kremlin President News / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / KBS World News / BBC News (Business) / Times of India
Reference Links