Trajectory (Escalating): Conflict enters its 30th day; Israel expands invasion into southern Lebanon; Iran warns of US ground invasion.; Iran threatens to attack the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (source: France 24). Key events: Israeli Defense Forces state they could destroy 90% of Iran's weapons industry within days (source: The Jerusalem Post); Iranian attack on Saudi base injures at least 10 US troops (source: AP) Watch: Monitor whether the US deploys ground troops, whether Iran follows through on its threats, and whether diplomatic talks can ease tensions.