专题时间线
Weather & Disaster
欧洲气象机构表示厄尔尼诺现象已形成，太平洋海温在5月超过0.5°C阈值，预计将影响全球天气模式，包括印度季风。（Times of India） 关键事件：欧洲机构确认厄尔尼诺到来，太平洋升温（Times of India）
信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-06-05
来源数
21
大陆
3
港澳台
0
海外
18
官媒/官方
3
非官媒
18
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
19
中文覆盖
3
英文覆盖
12
参考链接
88
国家 / 地区: China / France / Germany / India / International / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / UK / USA
来源样本
Xinhua Finance · 大陆 / 官方China News Service · 大陆 / 官方ABC News · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体RT News · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #2 · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体Nikkei Asia · 海外 / 媒体The Hindu · 海外 / 媒体DW (Deutsche Welle) · 海外 / 媒体Times of India · 海外 / 媒体
来源样本来自本期引用与配置元数据，用于追溯覆盖，不代表背书或投资建议。
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 18 个，大陆信源 3 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 12 个，中文信源 3 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: CU沪铜 / CF棉花
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 18 / 已复核 6
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- CF 5y · 跟踪中 · seeded_by_p2_writer_contract
- CF 3y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- CF 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- CF 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-06-05
2026-06-05
进展要点
- 欧洲气象机构表示厄尔尼诺现象已形成，太平洋海温在5月超过0.5°C阈值，预计将影响全球天气模式，包括印度季风。（Times of India）
关键事件
- 欧洲机构确认厄尔尼诺到来，太平洋升温（Times of India）
关联路径
El Niño / weather pattern shift / crop yield uncertainty
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / The New York Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260605/7973c1317fd1426bab5ffe07fa264bd2/c.html
- [2] https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariff-proposal/story?id=133584802
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260605061817JZV
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/640972-eu-hormuz-naval-mission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/middle-east-matters/20260604-strait-of-hormuz-oil-crisis-an-opportunity-for-syria
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOT003RTBZYjRUa3FHNEZweGRpNnM0VHhLQy1iY1lTSEVoQXl4NXgtVHN2RWhINktWRnd1SG9xZ09fYV9HLUJXT0ZnNDRBeko3S2tydXp6cmN2VHdndmxpLW84c2N1TmE2VURFTXUxQnc5WmJQLXQzalFVUllTLXpKX2steEc5dGJxWldFTlpzWURsa2M1cHgyOEN0YjNpOUxaY25SQmJ3cENONUwwNDJOZHVubS1vSHJDdEZWVTZudXlNd29P?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/hezbollah-rejects-us-brokered-ceasefire-deal-between-israel-and-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/brazil-to-ramp-up-oil-output-as-asia-looks-for-iran-alternative
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-05/10634491.shtml
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-open-letter-to-putin-zelenskyy-calls-for-meeting-and-ceasefire/article71062934.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-s-zelenskyy-proposes-putin-meeting-on-ending-war/a-77427312?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/el-nino-is-here-says-european-agency-amid-pacific-warming/articleshow/131516828.cms
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/climate/trump-coal-plants-funding.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPaFlaYlY3cW1haWpSUVNzWmZLV0VOTm9TaEM1UFdxdFBOSUJaWWJzS0x5VnZEaXpQNmZvX2JTLUhpb21jMnFEeVE2bERvRWl6cXl2cThpVTdHTThZUUhVQ2pXMTBrRnYyWXJCdW9DRXBCTWxXOHNLdTBrZVZOaXQ2N2lHQ3V0VkszYWZmNDhCb1gwQXBiaHRHZnlzTGMwTUtIeUtj?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQXzhwX2s4YkZjdnpieUdhRmVDSjZMTnhabmdMMkpXWFFFcHRnLTBIQkpTLWtYaUdweTBTRnRfQVFTM0d3Z2R4SzdNaXIya09vZmpRbWRPM1p5UG15S3ZVWGJpcWFWZ19OekQtR2JfWFpWQ0ZDZVJNQk1VWGJwM2laVFhIRUYtOFBQa0NPcmJrRGhHQklaNU9HZkRwbmUwbm8?oc=5
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/640955-trump-new-ceasefire-definition/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260604224303UPC
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606050922570pg
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/lebanon-latest-hezbollah-rejects-us-plan-as-israel-continues-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260604-zelensky-in-open-letter-to-putin-proposes-face-to-face-meeting-and-full-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/4/saudi-energy-minister-call-for-stable-energy-sector-on-russia-visit?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260604-israel-s-defence-minister-says-military-operations-in-lebanon-will-continue-despite-ceasefire
2026-06-03
2026-06-03
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：全球极端天气事件频率上升，厄尔尼诺风险加剧印度季风不确定性。
- 世界气象组织警告厄尔尼诺现象正在快速发展，形成概率80%，可能持续至11月并严重削弱印度季风（Times of India）。
- 印度极端高温已导致奶牛食欲下降、产奶量减少，农民成本上升（The Hindu）。
关键事件
- WMO厄尔尼诺警报：印度季风风险加剧（Times of India）
- 极端高温考验印度创纪录牛奶产量（The Hindu）
关注 / 展望
厄尔尼诺若如期发展，将影响全球粮食和软商品供应，特别是印度蔗糖、大米和棉花产量。
关联路径
厄尔尼诺 / 印度季风减弱 / 农作物减产 / 农产品价格上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/3/iran-war-live-us-strikes-irans-qeshm-says-tehran-attacks-kuwait-bahrain?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085457liG
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-160-against-dollar-erasing-intervention-gains
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/c93fcadd37c747f8810b4ad6dfdd63e6/c.html
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/politics/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy02rz27l32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-strikes-on-us-bases-in-kuwait-air-defences-intercept-missiles-drones/articleshow/131473476.cms
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-03/10633255.shtml
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260602/19640fb1fceb4718ba72049b59b728bc/c.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9xb2xWUEo3ZzZMWGdYTU55NjBlNXcteWV1VEptRGVONlN3RjMyRHcyT19tbmlDOWVJMm5saWdTMXhpRlFudnFxZ1NkUk14VzRxUnpZNHFpT3hobi16NVBRclpXYm9pSnE2Y2h1MEgxeFIyVnFDMTYtZ0pHRQ?oc=5
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000300315
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/extreme-heat-tests-indias-record-milk-production/article71054177.ece
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/035fd44840cd4ee7acefc52fd6608c58/c.html
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085712OKE
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/2a5a9d998b994fa4b0025c8e95aa8fb3/c.html
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hormuz-shut-shipping-services-through-other-routes-to-west-asia-up-2x/articleshow/131473482.cms
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606030657498CS
- [19] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/wmos-el-nino-alert-raises-odds-of-severe-impact-on-monsoon/articleshow/131471238.cms
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000200315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/2/us-targets-brazil-with-new-tariffs-over-trade-practices?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-30
2026-05-30
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：新事件，无历史延续；印度季风预测下调但未引发极端反应。
- 印度气象局将季风降雨预测下调至长期均值的90%，降雨不足概率达60%。
- 厄尔尼诺现象为主要影响因素。
关键事件
- 印度气象局下调季风预测，降雨不足概率60%（Times of India）
关注 / 展望
季风不足可能影响印度农业产出和食品通胀，需关注后续降雨数据。
关联路径
季风不足 / 农业减产 / 食品价格上行风险
来源
Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Nikkei Asia / Times of India / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260530084204GYK
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/netanyahu-says-israeli-forces-have-crossed-lebanons-litani-river?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQWV85YWg3MmVfOVloemFFRkN2eWhycXYtV0huendnME9XZ3ltRnJ1SXBNakVDcGo4OVFoZVNVbU9Fc19GTUNYTHRMeTA0Q3RicHB2TUZBRUJMV2JDb215QmM0LWlrMTRNeEN5dm1fSEE2RzZxdWpEUW9WMFZGNG83VVAxVGtrZjNVVFkxaHRVXzl3a2hiVmZuSUp5X0JaN0E1TWtxSjRMUVZNQlg3QUxlOUJSYzR3amM?oc=5
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000251315
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-to-lift-naval-blockade-of-ports-trump-says/live-77338255?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r2d40r91qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/us-rate-hike-on-the-table-as-inflation-persists-chicago-fed-chief
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260529/c8f2bd52fad54a01b6872e804fc07aec/c.html
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-will-accept-only-iran-deal-that-meets-his-red-lines-white-house-official-after-2-hour-meeting/articleshow/131402044.cms
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/middleeast/irans-hard-liners-deal.html
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-droht-armenien-bei-weiterer-eu-annaeherung-a-25ac0ff2-909d-41b8-8974-7f55c7ff074e
- [12] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/inflation-rises-isnt-hotter-expected-134746577.html
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530042120YEX
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/trump-heads-into-situation-room-to-potentially-finalise-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530000403PDN
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxNV3dWOVpUZldOcWpPTGI4aHlVUkNXdmVnaHN5TmVrNmhPTmNWWDhrM1RiZmtvTzQ3NGZnSklsUW9saWdQN0Jqb2NwTjVUOXJUS2toeFIzc3NhR0FCdXJQN3pnMVhMUHpTMW9Ub3VQc2xfVHIyS1RscDZZei1CeldDam1rbjJjZGhXUE1MS2lMN2FnMGJjMlZ5ellWdlpKWW1zZzRmSVpwZWNDUDU1VGVVdHVkUkJONklsZVdBY0NTUVIwZnQtaTRVVmVUMC1na3FQRHRv0gHTAUFVX3lxTE1ZdUg1dUdFdXpCbEx3Uk96R0hjUGs5d3RtRzdWcnNQQ0tnT1AybXcwY0piMGVYcGY4amw4M3NSZEZIc2ExeVY1azltaW14MW1IY3lZbEdwTEd1Ri1TZnBHVVR3UGFfS1FVNE1kRGVFMDN1YVUwdGc5c0MwSXlBRGl
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000253315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000400315
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPTlZSS3ZkeXNFYnYzNVl6N1hkYWNMM3prZ0xDaTNsaFh4SThvdlE2TG1LYjM5QmhEay1pUzNWYldwVTVmOTlCaDVQMHhDS2J3SmlBd0FjZko4M0tqbWtaSzY0TEdnQ2hIV2N3ZW1BejJhWWlQem83Z3pkNHkwbG05NEZNRUluRTA?oc=5
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/60-chance-of-deficient-monsoon-as-imd-downgrades-rain-forecast/articleshow/131398673.cms
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/29/trump-says-final-determination-to-be-made-on-possible-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/meeting-now-to-make-final-determination-trump-on-us-iran-draft-truce-deal-lists-conditions-for-tehran/articleshow/131394024.cms
2026-05-26
2026-05-26
进展要点
- 轨迹（消退）：智利北部6.9级地震，震源深度100千米，对铜矿生产的潜在影响有限。
- 地震发生在智利北部，震源较深，未立即报告大规模破坏（China News Service）。
关键事件
- 智利北部6.9级地震，震源深度100千米（China News Service）
关注 / 展望
关注矿区运营状态，若供电或运输受影响可能短期提振铜价。
关联路径
Chile earthquake / copper mine disruption / copper supply tightness
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605260849226bc
- [2] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-usa-greifen-ziele-im-iran-an-mitten-in-verhandlungen-zum-kriegsende-a-35074028-1cd5-4e3b-bcff-af0425d0fb4c
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201690
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzzn4y1n8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260525/104870725f26430aac971137b3b40e2f/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/26/iran-war-live-israel-pounds-lebanon-iranian-officials-in-qatar-for-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-26/10628481.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004353315
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/640566-iranian-speedboat-attacks-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/russia-says-magnetic-mines-found-101635715.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4MHBZb25FbHBBa1QzNEI4T2tjaDdiYVZjWUJIb3huNHBYbGxIbldJNjlWWE5Ca3dTQ3JJNmxQTVIwdjNxVFMxZWRfWmNvSExOZ1RDZTdFTFB4Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/iran-to-open-hormuz-30-days-after-us-deal-to-end-fighting-source
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-iran-deal-must-be-great-and-meaningful-or-us-will-walk-away/article71022492.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-emerges-as-gulfs-key-trade-route-as-iran-war-blocks-hormuz-strait/articleshow/131310656.cms
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/c4e3ed15d098de0a.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526080022bhb
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526062910IBB
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNcWFSYzlYSDhhR3BSOHB1Q0RXalE0ZHpHVGhXTGlJYUp2M0hjTGszVlN1Q2p3LTVPSi1DSjZpTVYtQW9lM291OFk4N0hRYkI0X0RGRjdtcUVRcjZyM2NiX2loQmlYcEJlZWRRdE9ubGJTbV96VUk1U0FCaldGcUc0RjdGTdIBiAFBVV95cUxObHVDM01oY0VteWt1OVdlYUVPcDR3VHlWOHdSZEVNUUNMblpLb012WFpRVFlNNU82MTlEN2pmOEZBVElrT3lERXliS3Nrc29HNmFLSXdYRHYyMTlTc0ZpVWV5eDV5bTlUelJnM18zYTlZTWw1N096WHJUQmtMemhrXzhweXV3LTVi?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOaEYzalpGWXR1T2dtLXZLUTkzOXVnSEZtNlJzc2R6S3NqaEJ0TTNuc2VRd09KcC1wYldfV0tLTW1zMzF3Rm1ULW1LejBIMGRIMXZIVFIxalAwd0t5S1dIaFZ4T2d1Wi1UVWt1RTlYaWd3MURFZXQxOGxONnF0TVVfYldsWkJENUYtZFdmVGpabXFta1VhN0Zla1pZY0hQaU9Vc3h5LUk4OTk0Z3NRaU5vZ2VUc3NVU2RlVEZoWQ?oc=5
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004351315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/25/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/d0a6a02b71d729e1.html
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