专题时间线
Weather & Disaster
轨迹（升级中）：欧洲热浪已导致多瑙河创纪录低水位，今日进一步蔓延至核电减产与内河航运成本上行，印度季风亦转向偏弱。；匈牙利保克什核电站三座反应堆减产至约60%容量，罗马尼亚切尔纳沃德核电站一座反应堆关闭（RT News）。 关键事件：欧洲热浪致核电减产，莱茵河/多瑙河水位创历史低位（RT News）；印度气象局预测8月降雨低于正常水平（The Hindu） 关注：关注欧洲高温持续时长是否进一步压缩核电与莱茵河航运运力，以及印度8月实际降雨对农产品通胀的影响。
信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-08-01
来源数
68
大陆
4
港澳台
0
海外
64
官媒/官方
7
非官媒
61
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
66
中文覆盖
4
英文覆盖
35
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
Xinhua Finance · 大陆 / 官方Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合The New York Times · 海外 / 商业媒体RT News · 海外 / 媒体Nikkei Asia · 海外 / 商业媒体ABC News · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV Politics Feed · 海外 / 媒体Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #2 · 海外 / 媒体Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体ANTARA News Agency · 海外 / 媒体The Hindu · 海外 / 媒体
来源样本来自本期引用与配置元数据，用于追溯覆盖，不代表背书或投资建议。
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 64 个，大陆信源 4 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 35 个，中文信源 4 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: CU沪铜 / CF棉花 / PM普麦 / SR白糖 / SC原油 / PG液化石油气
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 48 / 待复核 16 / 已复核 32
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SR 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SR 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SR 6m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SR 3m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-08-01
2026-08-01
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级中）：欧洲热浪已导致多瑙河创纪录低水位，今日进一步蔓延至核电减产与内河航运成本上行，印度季风亦转向偏弱。
- 匈牙利保克什核电站三座反应堆减产至约60%容量，罗马尼亚切尔纳沃德核电站一座反应堆关闭（RT News）。
- 布达佩斯多瑙河水位降至23厘米，莱茵河考布镇通航深度仅29厘米，油轮运输成本升至145欧元/吨（RT News）。
- 印度气象局预测8月降雨量仅为长期均值的94%，西部印度受创可能最重（The Hindu）。
关键事件
- 欧洲热浪致核电减产，莱茵河/多瑙河水位创历史低位（RT News）
- 印度气象局预测8月降雨低于正常水平（The Hindu）
关注 / 展望
关注欧洲高温持续时长是否进一步压缩核电与莱茵河航运运力，以及印度8月实际降雨对农产品通胀的影响。
关联路径
热浪 / 低水位 / 核电减产+内河运费上升 / 能源与工业品价格
印度降雨偏少 / 农产品供给担忧 / 食品通胀
来源
Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The New York Times / RT News / Nikkei Asia / ABC News / Yonhap News TV Politics Feed / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Agency / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPTExVbGpfeGpwRzZoYzd1SlBvaWhnZVJoUXc3ekdDWWZ6alQ2ckh2dzhSV3B5VWVJLWZlSkp4bDltM3pQaXN1MHJBUWQ2NnV1UnFQeG05SWQ3akZJczRxd0lmaDVvd2R4R2VXQWZ2T2pLWXQydGowVDMtUWhYUTBNMzd0emxJUldOcHJ3SVF6UjcxUU5Tdm9SdDNkUQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/economy/inflation-fed-dissent-interest-rates.html
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/643719-heatwave-europe-nuclear-powerdown/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-tells-banks-further-yen-intervention-possible-yen-surges
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260801/9495dd232be9459f95e2139a606ec4b1/c.html
- [6] https://abcnews.com/Politics/dhs-blocks-43-chinese-companies-conducting-business-united/story?id=135262293
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801032933sVb
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801013436pZU
- [9] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260731-why-has-riyadh-joined-the-us-in-striking-tehran
- [10] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/russia-and-ukraine-report-casualties-as-they-continue-to-trade-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5674867/china-nyatakan-keprihatinan-serius-atas-pembatasan-dagang-as
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jaishankar-calls-araghchi-as-maritime-risks-persist-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-black-sea/article71291761.ece
- [13] https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-germany-welcomes-hamas-disarmament-plan/live-78183794?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxQa0Nlc3FFeTZIM0dHUG8wYm9yaXhpOFBRSzJNQ09nZW9aUHlCWU5hU1ZZOE1XVXdhcXVmZnJiZzgtaGdSbkU2Y2FsZXlWOXp1LXdGT2t3MHhGZGlwS095dURvODFaSUlSRER3aHl1Z3ZMbVlPWThNUExqTnZuZ2ZwZmxOUmJ2bXo4d1RwX3VILXpiLW1fTEgxMm5NQ0RrZjQ3cUlGZG5DY2FGRmQwdHkwcjJn?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPWlZrblhRajBMcWNtSEd2ZmhsUmN0ZmFpTVFoZWlsS2Q4c0VQbWhlUV92YU1vdTNoVEMyd0t4bjJWaERIQ2VKeWdYUnVxQ2JlUTQ1dkRLY3Z2ZlpOM0hHMkVfdXd5alpUMWk5R1ZGUjN3V240dXQzTnk2Yjk0b1QwYVBjSQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260731/b2152b10db1d4570a078ecfcda4db3f5/c.html
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/us/politics/iran-ukraine-war.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801004355TGU
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260801065115qvi
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/imd-forecasts-below-normal-rainfall-in-august/article71291310.ece
2026-07-31
2026-07-31
进展要点
- 多瑙河水位创纪录新低，匈牙利唯一核电站因冷却水不足被迫关闭。
- 厄尔尼诺早期影响显现，泰国水稻和印度甘蔗受冲击。
关键事件
- 多瑙河水位创纪录新低，匈牙利唯一核电站被迫关闭（BBC News (Top)）
- 厄尔尼诺早期影响显现：泰国水稻与印度甘蔗受冲击（Nikkei Asia）
关注 / 展望
欧洲干旱和厄尔尼诺可能持续影响能源和农产品供应，需关注后续发展。
关联路径
多瑙河低水位 / 核电站关闭 / 区域电力供应风险
厄尔尼诺 / 泰国水稻 / 印度甘蔗减产 / 全球大米 / 糖供应紧张
来源
Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / BBC News (Top) / The New York Times / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / BBC News (Business) / France 24 #2 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPNDNZZ1IzbDlvbkRLRjJWbXNlYVI1cUh2eUVZUmxPUzJON2hDV2xiYVFyRTR2TWcyQ05YM0hRaGdrUzRBcFN1Ti1YV3I5WG5tdG0takNaMEp6WER1TzFXNEpQR2NFeHN4WFNnTFMwZDhUVkE1dGpWVnpDdG1FVG15c0wwa2I3UQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/30/security-camera-shows-russian-missile-exploding-in-poland?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/japan-carries-out-yen-buying-intervention-as-us-executes-rate-check
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0nqv05g0do?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/economy/trump-tariffs-exemptions.html
- [6] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/russian-strikes-across-ukraine-kill-9-and-nato-scrambles-jets-after-a-missile-falls-in-poland/article71287476.ece
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-saudi-arabien-greift-ziele-im-irak-an-konflikt-wird-zum-flaechenbrand-a-61018b7f-1b04-4163-bba0-7dfde8204547
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-retaliates-iran-attack-expert-100029783.html
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/video/5672887/pasukan-as-lancarkan-serangan-baru-ke-iran-seiring-meluasnya-konflik
- [10] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd0xvrmlx2eo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260730-pakistan-says-us-iran-talks-still-alive-despite-fresh-wave-of-us-strikes
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/643656-iraq-us-saudi-strikes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQdDQ4dzN5S3FNdkY1MHF5RnNqdk4wMkNxM04tTU1RWXBhT01qQTFCZUtRdzltUTVXOW1KTG05ajZpWkdEX3BRcDhkbjdrZnhwbWtCS25QU3lheWRLVFFhSV83WGQ4dEpOampaRWZNX1dOSEdwUkdmRXJsekNELW9VUm1LTjdDNXljQk16SXpkVmstYlFocWFuR0s4enVMX3FaTnJKV1V4YU9rajIwd1MwcWw5OA?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPVnV5VmFlVUF0bkZUbjdIeHZqZUFXM3Npd0NlN1p6SDlJTGlLd0F1dWhUSjFnRUozNlc1MUx2eUw5d3BMSFJvX3pLYUpYNkkyaHNWWUVETV91Um5tbG5fOXpWS0h4cWV6MkZvN1o0UEd3b3FXbkpfaVVDbER4MTlidXVaM2FSY0hGYV91ekN6aW9mWmdZREt2ckVFOU9vMU41UlpHSVRB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74gwdzywmeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/30/nato-jets-scramble-as-russian-missile-detonates-in-poland?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/30/irgc-video-of-retaliatory-strikes-on-us-targets-in-jordan?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/nato-says-russian-missile-crashed-122019554.html
- [19] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/us-china-tensions/us-urges-china-to-fully-meet-rare-earths-pledge-in-virtual-meeting-bessent-says
- [20] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/agriculture/thai-rice-indian-sugarcane-show-signs-of-early-el-nino-impact
2026-07-19
2026-07-19
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级中）：委内瑞拉地震死亡人数已超过5000人，IMF已批准紧急援助（Google News - World）。
- 此前数日死亡人数从2954人逐步升至4930人（ANTARA News），本次更新确认突破5000人关口。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震死亡超5000人，IMF紧急援助（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
救援工作仍在进行，死亡人数可能进一步上升，需关注后续人道主义援助及对委内瑞拉石油生产的影响。
关联路径
地震破坏 / 石油生产中断 / 原油供应收紧
来源
China News Service / El País Internacional / El Mundo - International News / Google News - World / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / RT News / The Daily Beast / Times of India / Yahoo News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Independent / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-16/estados-unidos-bombardea-el-norte-de-iran-y-estrecha-el-cerco-sobre-ormuz.html
- [2] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/18/6a5b1360e9cf4a296b8b4590.html
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQbS1jN0tZcUtrbk9GU3RKeUxqTHM1Qk5DUDF1VDBVOUVqaVp4QV8xWGhEMmtFV3JRRDc1SXlxalZwcElvUlBXQk13R1NPdW91eUFNRF9UT3JRM3ZHTC03a2ZaZmg0Z2tJdXdCRjVMUml0eWtTSWFLU2U5WGxIMHBNSG1hb2dTS3VLak0zVXdZdHhKY1duRml2MW9Ea0xxVlU?oc=5
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260718-l-iran-attaque-deux-tankers-dans-le-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-apr%C3%A8s-des-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/19/usa-kuendigen-nach-tod-von-soldaten-vergeltungsschlaege-an
- [6] https://www.rt.com/news/643218-us-iran-worldwide-travel-warning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662250.shtml
- [8] https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-goes-golfing-as-iran-kills-american-troops
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-military-death-toll-in-iran-war-rises-to-16-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan/articleshow/132486886.cms
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-targets-iranian-bridges-energy-143455368.html
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-zwei-us-soldaten-in-jordanien-getoetet-mojtaba-khameneidroht-mit-unvergesslichen-lektionen-a-a227d94e-82a9-46b3-9499-9f7fcdb7f5e6
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/18/damage-visible-at-iran-bridges-and-water-plant-after-us-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/us-troops-killed-missing-iran-war-jordan-base-b3017480.html
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/world/middleeast/us-iran-war-strikes-bridges-bandar-abbas.html
- [15] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8nynv8ze8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [16] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-18/iran-suspending-commitments-to-deal-with-u-s-attacks-continue
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPRW1HM0tnNnRlejk2WUp0LURrTzA2RERyQUZvZ3g3SGRCeVJWQUtYUl8zbWZQSzlkSDc0WmdLWlY1VTFmTG1DejlFbnV0ejNGbFNkQ2tfdU96dTlsRHI4Z1RsbG9NM2R6TXlENU55RmVnZVR2Umk2Y3o0MWw3bUJnVXI0UmE1Zw?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260718-khamenei-threatens-unforgettable-lessons-two-us-troops-killed-in-iranian-attack
- [19] https://www.rt.com/news/643205-two-us-service-members-killed-iranian-retaliatory-strikes-pentagon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxOQlZySDRLbXY3eGhXOU92Rlh2ajE1cmJPN1poeE9zdlpvR3p5VEhBSVFXd21BMUFZTHNmN0NFREVIc21ZdXdNUEdTV3lKd0oyazJzTzVmcy1rTzFWNmVOM05peHFqN1k5bWdObG04aTRlTHhLWjBmMVRLeWM5bG5BcGZzNDJ1ZzM5NDRnMTdWZDdaaXFOblBldFlJTC1CVkhTRVd5SXN4V1l4VlnSAbABQVVfeXFMTVc4bEVGdUpsRzlhRm5wd2ZiZ2x3QVlRU29XNDQtVnJ6VGdTNnE2U0dlbUxYekpfdXljUWZtTVQ5NjNzNExHOGZHUl9yTWUyLW94TklIaGZ6S0dPWmpCTG0yYXVSaDdsOFUzZ1hNWDNyeVRXSENoaXQ4RG5IZ2MxdTVzX2FhcGRlSVZkUWdkZXdNLXByTHpWUndyVEdjY254ai1rUlNmcGZ
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/18/us-military-says-two-service-members-killed-in-iranian-strike-in-jordan?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/18/what-to-expect-after-the-us-reimposes-naval-blockade-on-irans-ports?traffic_source=rss
2026-07-16
2026-07-16
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：委内瑞拉6月24日强震遇难人数持续上升，从2595人升至当前4829人，受伤16740人，余震达1284次。
- 地震对当地石油生产与出口基础设施的影响尚未完全评估，但供给中断风险加剧。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉强震遇难人数升至4829人，余震1284次（China News Service）
关注 / 展望
后续需关注震区油田复产进度及人道主义救援压力，短期可能加剧全球重油供应紧张。
关联路径
地震 / 委内瑞拉石油产量下降 / 全球重油供给收紧
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / The New York Times / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/iran-says-peace-deal-voided-fighting-existential-war-after-us-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-us-launches-wave-of-strikes-on-iran-tehran-threatens-to-halt-regional-energy-exports
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/world/middleeast/us-iran-hormuz-greater-tunb-island.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-16/10660151.shtml
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibEFVX3lxTE5VZVRQYUszT2dpanVJbzYyMzZvVjEzUW44ekpUVU5TanJ4cnhKdWNwSWl6NXpQM2NFM1E0b0lSQ2ltN3VZR0hPdWpBRDVPV29CYWg3N0t4TWlmc1RrYmc1a25Rd0dUeExwVVk2SQ?oc=5
- [6] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9323zgq6wvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ships-refusing-us-military-guided-154218357.html
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-airstrikes-iran-greater-tunb-island-strait-of-hormuz/article71226116.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643112-eu-russia-sanctions-fail/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/us/politics/us-blockade-iran.html
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/15/ukraine-strikes-20-russian-vessels?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQREphVnNka3l1V3FyaHFtRjNRZWYzNlJnem5kRFJkNlZoaUJMRjFyeUt1bmpwcnJYTE4wN2dJeVBUX1JLanA4WVBKYmI3UEtHZzhLWS1ISTJxeXZ2T0x0RkpQZjM1b0FoTzBqNk5TT2QydVBleHlRV25KOTdFaVg0NUpwXy1oWEFWM2ZVMUFTY21mNDJ4OUhqYXlsTzA3SUhLdjBtbHNVbHRfZ1U?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/mapping-the-latest-us-strikes-across-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-why-the-us-is-launching-naval-drones-at-iran-s-port-city-of-bandar-abbas
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxPTW1DVzNxMUs1U2htTWd5Y0gtYnF5SUxnYU16UWE4c1VFeFR6SW03VUlLWW1TZk1yRmJ4eVUtUTZlenJ0YWc5eVhPUW0teWRTamF6TjVCcFFGWlBuNG0tVTFsMDJoMENXM2ZTeDUzU1FOeFVGRjRnZW5ZeHVGOG8xVU1xdlNPaFNIeWd5OWNBekcxdDRiWGFrTmNUN2xiT2c1cWMtMEJIMVYtM0sxZ1dpcTVlQQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260715-middle-east-live-tehran-and-us-exchange-strikes-as-blockade-of-iranian-ports-resumes
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/07-15/10660127.shtml
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/us/politics/house-republicans-budget.html
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/congress-seeks-piyush-goyals-clarification-on-proposed-us-bill-for-100-tariff-on-india-over-russian-oil-purchases/article71226516.ece
- [20] https://www.rt.com/news/643090-us-ends-iraq-presence/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-12
2026-07-12
进展要点
- 轨迹（Fading but persistent）：委内瑞拉地震死亡人数持续攀升至4300人以上，石油生产恢复前景不明。
- 委内瑞拉地震确认超4300人死亡（Sky News、ORF.at News）。
- 历史数据显示6月28日死亡1430人，7月6日救援中，7月11日升至4118人，当前已超4300人（ANTARA News、Der Spiegel等）。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震死亡人数超4300（Sky News）
- 委内瑞拉地震已致4300余人死亡（ORF.at News）
关注 / 展望
救援与基建恢复需时，委内瑞拉原油产量短期难以恢复，加剧全球重质原油供应紧张。
关联路径
Earthquake / production disruption / crude supply tightness
来源
China News Service / RT News / Valor Econômico Politics / Yahoo News - World / Kyiv Post / ORF.at News / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Sky News / Tagesschau / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / The Irish News / Kyiv Independent / Mehr News Agency / El País Internacional / El Mundo - International News / n-tv Politik / Global Issues News / Al Jazeera Middle East
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-12/10657757.shtml
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/642900-iran-closes-hormuz-again/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/11/eua-buscam-compromisso-do-ir-de-liberao-do-estreito-de-ormuz.ghtml
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-threatens-iran-ayatollah-ali-033506025.html
- [5] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80056
- [6] https://orf.at/stories/3435955
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9gkpp0dkeo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNTzEwU1VBMUJIMnlNdFFhb2gwX2VuNjJIWHlMaWFMZTlOT0hQa184Nk5VeUotdUw1bzhOTE11a0c5cThvampGOFVoZE9qN3JsR3lIVVJVbnRlT1RIWm5xbVZmb1VtcXVLdk9RM2dRQVp3UEhwU282UVJ3d1JYdk9MSG5GaXRKSFVlMW5nZEtFVE15bTZLS2llcVVra2R1bXNneHB0YzREaGpiN1RVSXlQbUsyc2VLSGxUVUxlZnJyTERDODFucGNtZw?oc=5
- [9] https://news.sky.com/story/more-than-4300-confirmed-dead-in-venezuela-earthquakes-13562615
- [10] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/iran-krieg-verhandlungen-102.html
- [11] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-11/trump-irans-supreme-leader-trade-threats
- [12] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/trump-threatens-iran-after-calls-for-his-killing-at-ali-khameneis-funeral-5YSWVV6IFZNCJMKH3OAV3ALEFQ
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/russia-halts-shipping-through-don-azov-canal-after-ukrainian-strike-on-vessels-reuters-reports
- [14] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246078/Araghchi-heads-to-Oman-for-talks-on-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [15] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-11/estados-unidos-exige-a-iran-que-se-comprometa-publicamente-a-no-atacar-barcos-en-ormuz.html
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/11/6a522821fc6c83c73c8b45a8.html
- [17] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-schwoert-Vergeltung-fuer-Tod-von-Chamenei-id31075294.html
- [18] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/07/10/43540
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/11/hormuz-shipping-in-focus-as-iran-us-rhetoric-heats-up?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80064
- [21] https://orf.at/stories/3435956
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOdlZwRHBZb28tT1BqTHZWbC1XOTJ1NmNKejFvbzhJLVM5ZjBCT25ndnZMMmx0T2ZWcFN6N0lvcV9zeU04T21UNFhRdTJGNW5FUmhMVnZKMDFzakFHLUp5V2VWRU1mMEEybUNQS1pqc251bGNFOUdkbnlFQWljU0kzN2thV1dGcENVOGVOMVBtTzZoRGxuWHhteEF3QlRHTnhDb3MzUU9VVTYtcXVvRXM5RQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/deadly-russian-attacks-hit-ukraine-as-kyiv-targets-tankers-in-sea-of-azov-LO7BA2GK7ZPGJCARRP2EKWHNQI
- [24] https://www.irishnews.com/news/world/trump-and-iranian-leader-trade-threats-as-mediators-bid-to-save-crumbling-deal-4NNQFOPDEZMHBD67XDXP3PW2MQ
- [25] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-10/unclaimed-airstrikes-target-iran-after-u-s-attacks-raising-questions-of-who-launched-them
- [26] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-11/iran-se-hace-fuerte-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-su-gran-botin-de-guerra.html
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-09/iran-ataca-de-nuevo-intereses-de-estados-unidos-en-kuwait-barein-y-qatar-en-respuesta-a-los-bombardeos-de-washington.html
- [28] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/USA-Iran-muss-Sicherheit-der-Strasse-von-Hormus-zusichern-id31074174.html
2026-07-11
2026-07-11
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：厄尔尼诺预测与此前一致，台风为短期事件。
- 中国自然资源部预计2026年秋冬季将形成超强厄尔尼诺事件，可能刷新历史极值
- 福建省因台风“巴威”提升防台风应急响应至Ⅱ级，沿海66条航线停航
关键事件
- 2026年秋冬季将形成超强厄尔尼诺（China News Service）
- 福建提升防台风响应至Ⅱ级（China News Service）
关注 / 展望
超强厄尔尼诺可能影响中国农业及能源需求，短期台风扰动物流需关注后续路径。
关联路径
超强厄尔尼诺 / 中国气候异常 / 农产品 / 能源供需波动
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / ANTARA News Agency / France 24 #3 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/us/politics/iran-war-escalation.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNWU8weHNqWU10dDFxUGpMR3Z5LW0xVVVnTlNuU2ZBaWpXS0ZnbHQ4c3BENmZ2QVZMZ0VLWmIyUnU0NVM2Tkp4T0lONVM2NnF5cHluZWRxR3FkOXdsNEJoQ3I1VmV3a3hOcExFWll0Vkp2VUJKN2xpcU13US1lOEkxWE1CcEY2dWZGbUZ4TzZ3V0lYRUhLdC1CZjJNTDVJZVM2TDZpSUU0V0lQdkZn?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/10/ukrainian-attacks-cause-chaos-at-fuel-stations-across-russia?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/top-iranian-officials-admitted-supreme-162000309.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukrainian-drones-hit-southern-russian-refineries-azov-port/article71207976.ece
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260711000300315
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644808/as-dorong-kapal-niaga-tetap-gunakan-jalur-selatan-hormuz
- [8] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260710-les-hostilit%C3%A9s-entre-l-iran-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-reprennent
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/07-10/10657209.shtml
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642860-iran-khamenei-death-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQd3p4VkVsUUpoYmxDY0ROM2c0Qk9IVEVGWnZFZkxOdjYtNEZuVmRSMFBXNkpwSU5Ka3M2MkRrUGV1U3hRaktUTVFFdmhWZjNHeG13NHJscUVKd0hLSnlrZ2k4bWV6VklQVHppSWhLV2ZNQUJBNjhhUVBONy1DUGc5dERTbUJaeHZ2dTI5ay1HU0U3M2JxWVh6WHNLS3Naa1U0aHg5Ym1uc3RVdHM?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/iran-shipping-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOanFsbUNrR3NoakU1cEowb1ZIa3oyWU55NTZaYll6VDJHal9KVGhGclVuUFNuNFZ3bEV5bDNFUWVyY0E3ZlE2YjFoV0V0N1pqdzFJaU13Y0RvUlBLMDBWTXpKWU8xdG5TRnFveTRjVDBvSHVqRGZZQkVGcFdHenZVNTBneEtCUQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/trump-says-us-has-agreed-to-continue-iran-talks-but-ceasefire-over?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ml--iran-us-105500253.html
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-senators-agreement-reached-trump-171753021.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/russian-attacks-kill-four-as-ukraine-continues-to-target-oil-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-has-asked-to-continue-talks-and-the-us-agreed-trump-says/article71207807.ece
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinastemporary-export-ban-on-helium-explained/article71206477.ece
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260710-reprise-des-hostilit%C3%A9s-iran-usa-sommet-de-l-otan-marine-le-pen-condamn%C3%A9e
- [21] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644803/as-ingin-israel-tak-terlibat-serang-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-10/10657255.shtml
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/07-10/10657250.shtml
2026-07-08
2026-07-08
进展要点
- 轨迹（Stable）：极端气候事件持续，但未出现超出预期的突变。
- 欧洲气象机构预测将出现有记录以来最强厄尔尼诺（Der Spiegel）。
- 委内瑞拉强震死亡人数升至3535人（Al Jazeera），对石油基础设施的影响尚待评估。
关键事件
- 欧洲气象机构预测最强厄尔尼诺（Der Spiegel）
- 委内瑞拉地震遇难者达3535人（Al Jazeera）
关注 / 展望
厄尔尼诺可能扰乱全球农业生产和能源需求，而委内瑞拉地震进一步威胁该国脆弱石油产量。
关联路径
最强厄尔尼诺 / 农作物减产 / 能源需求波动 / 农产品及能源价格波动
来源
China News Service / France 24 #2 / RT News / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News Agency / Google News - World / The Hindu / Sky News / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / Die Zeit Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260707-us-launches-strikes-on-iran-after-ships-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/642707-us-new-strikes-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwykq59jwpvo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-fresh-strikes-after-attacks-in-hormuz/live-77869350?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-launches-strikes-against-212308104.html
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654726.shtml
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5639859/kapal-tanker-pengangkut-lng-diserang-di-teluk-oman
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/7/us-says-strikes-launched-as-explosions-heard-in-southern-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-thousands-throng-tehran-streets-khamenei/?id=134509610
- [10] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260708000500315
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxQZ2lMY1V0aWFzc1F6V29wV3g5UWVkaXI0cC1xTm1VT1BsZVN4dkt4eEZ3bFU4Uk9Qak1Bd0NNb0l4RlEwSmV1V3RBVTRJSEYwajBWdWhLbDcxTFFveWNHTE9XU1YybXZQdzduY1MyQmxhdldCWlp2ZjRVX3d4VnJhZldMQUtEdlRFSEpuUUxVTjM5REhQTmRTQWRMLWEybWJ6STJ1UVRhd0w0Ti1aMW9sNVFaWTh5ZDJ5UjhfUlRycWVYbUU?oc=5
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/three-tankers-hit-in-latest-attacks-in-strait-of-hormuz-ukmto/article71194549.ece
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/qatari-tanker-hit-as-it-travelled-through-strait-of-hormuz-13561225
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260708000109Sxr
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/el-nino-europaeisches-wetterinstitut-rechnet-mit-staerkstem-el-nino-der-geschichte-a-e68e7b5b-6e35-408d-8ed8-66369aee05af
- [16] https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2026-07/gasreserve-krisenvorsorge-erdgas-notsituation-gasspeicherumlage
- [17] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--iran-us-011240354.html
- [18] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654725.shtml
- [19] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5639841/shalat-jenazah-dilaksanakan-di-masjid-jamkaran-untuk-ali-khamenei
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-08/10654714.shtml
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/coffin-slain-iranian-supreme-leader-183326480.html
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/7/venezuela-buries-earthquake-victims-as-death-toll-reaches-3535?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPd0VnUGZPLW1xRUFGRWNnM0hkZzVHaDVrMWdLZEtmWW1tREZ0MDhURkhQWGJ1RnZ5T1ZVMzFkSlQ2X1NXWHlmNC10NmFfU3RFT3oxeFNqSW51OXFOeS1Wa2hfdWU5Ui1FWk5MUThFWGxlNDFmcDNBMWU4YUVMTVREaU1pajZxUmVWc0hkUnZhendKYl9ISTQxbktJNU1McUN2NWJGblBvSEduenZEME9HTy1lUDIyYUo4SGRDRTgwdnJ3dHRxVHo4?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQNkJPTUhLWWxYT0hLeUhPQmQxZVZZYlV1M0lzVHVzRFEyeW1VeHhLbk9wZWxpb0JVOXRqeVQxb2dRN0Z6aFpHNVdXQmdIa1RUNlFiMkhVeEVGOF9kSm9HRDdSd2JFZGowUEdkaVNOa2FIZmJOeDVuVTV0SFdDMTV6LThFNW1YbXAtdUtfYmdEWDRsMm9DbUx2bDBPamo0UTRQYmsxU0IyWmt3dUkzamc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260708020833WSX
2026-07-07
2026-07-07
进展要点
- 轨迹（激化）：委内瑞拉地震死亡人数已超3500人，救援结束但遗体挖掘持续；欧洲热浪推高电价。
- 委内瑞拉6月26日双震已确认超过3500人死亡，影响石油生产设施。
- 欧洲创纪录热浪导致莱茵河水位下降、电价飙升（比利时1038欧元/兆瓦时），冲击工业产出。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震死亡人数升至3500人（Le Monde International）
- 欧洲热浪冲击经济：能源价格飙升（RT News）
- Google News - World报道委内瑞拉地震死伤持续上升
关注 / 展望
委内瑞拉石油生产中断风险增加，欧洲高温可能持续，能源与农产品市场承压。
关联路径
委内瑞拉地震 / 石油生产中断 / 重质原油供应紧张
欧洲热浪 / 电力需求激增 / 天然气和电价上涨
来源
The New York Times / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Tagesschau / Kyodo News English / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The Hindu / Der Spiegel International / Le Monde International / Die Zeit Politics / Prime Minister of Canada - Statements / El Mundo - International News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/world/middleeast/iran-khamenei-funeral.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/6/body-of-irans-slain-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-arrives-in-qom?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20260706-opec-raises-output-but-cartel-s-future-hangs-in-balance
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOdWl5Sl9wdU5zTlNwRXg0MFN4cVFYOGJ0LWxOcFRRbnRxZzNnNHRtaUJIOEVjc05GVVZaQjNFeDVZYTJ3MVA5alRPelYwT2g4alJBckd4R1VzWkRuWUpGaFZIQXZVc1g5XzFFbHIydEJ1cXFnVk8taXFpTkVrV1RvMktjcS1aWFc5bTY1Z3VleVluMkk?oc=5
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/642630-iran-mourners-kill-trump-banner/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-hits-major-oil-terminal-123434233.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/saudi-arabia-slashes-august-crude-prices-for-asia-by-11-a-barrel-in-biggest-cut-in-over-20-years/articleshow/132217320.cms
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iran-teheran-trauerfeier-100.html
- [9] https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/79292
- [10] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1079571/iran-lepaskan-ali-khamenei-dengan-perarakan-besar-besaran
- [11] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-live-updates-july-6-2026-khamenei-funeral-ceremonies/article71187769.ece
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-mindestens-18-tote-nach-russischem-angriff-auf-grossraum-kyjiw-a-96ff2946-8776-4480-8daa-7b94b9c67bec
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2026/07/06/seismes-au-venezuela-le-bilan-s-alourdit-passant-a-plus-de-3-500-morts-annonce-le-gouvernement_6721254_3244.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/mehr-als-3-500-tote-opferzahl-in-venezuela-steigt-weiter
- [15] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2026/07/02/prime-minister-carney-announces-west-coast-pipeline-project-proposal-and
- [16] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/06/6a4b94eefc6c83d51c8b4587.html
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNTDZrY2ZoWnNabEwySFNZSXo4c0psVEs2OFZNNWhNR2VjcGFkcVg5Mmd0RE81UmtrVjkyUmN2NlA2WEZBSlE5Qi1uLXhSODlfeTBfZmFDX1czSXpYeGFRWmJwZkNrRkxrVWhXdjFvZDZPRUk4OGhwR2I0QmMwQ2hIOFdjdDNyT0pqZTBUNVN2MWw0ZEwwbHJJZEpWLUZGRzFIRnhBSWwtdGxaNTlUcldqVHdB?oc=5
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/642634-europe-heat-economy-cost/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxQTlJ2bmxFQ3lVX3RDVF9hVEZVRkNra1pwU3prZDdoTHE5Qjl3MjlDb0VuRTVlQlBvMFdNSW0tOHg2WUlGX1Rrc3B0Mkk4X2RvdGxTUjExQmRQM3R1LW80R0UtaXpnUXNxU0JuYnBzcDhaei1CSFVTUXFaLXE2ODBnTVUzTHdLYXpCSWNMSl9FcEdCVS1WemJKT1k2b0x6LWk3dnEyTTFaZHI3OW5ZSkljXzlnYUR0QWhOZEZxTGlIYUtwR2NGN1JCb3QwUURybUY0T0E?oc=5
- [20] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/iran-supreme-leader-funeral-divisions.html
- [21] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/business/hormuz-strait-shipping-oil.html
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260706-his-resilience-his-words-his-character-mourners-grieve-late-supreme-leader-khamenei
- [23] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-slips-opec-agrees-raise-003607304.html
- [24] https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/analysis-world-absorbs-historic-iran-073926094.html
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/6/large-scale-russian-attack-on-ukraine-before-nato-summit?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://www.france24.com/en/in-tehran-funeral-attendees-grieve-the-loss-of-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei
2026-07-06
2026-07-06
进展要点
- 委内瑞拉发生地震，死亡人数已超过3300人。（ORF.at News）
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震死亡人数超3300（ORF.at News）
关联路径
Venezuela earthquake / oil production disruption / crude supply risk
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / The Independent / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / The New York Times / Russian Government News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ORF.at News / Global News / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / Deutsche Welle German News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNem9aeTdMZS1SYzcydDMydVQza0I3eEhwXy1qeVYyYjdzMUxhWjJwajRXNFM4UmVrNm1Ob0ltbnNYX0tCT0NTR1VZWkh4X2JYaUxBOXZYYzl6VmlIZUJ1S2JGRXRqc3NhUDQ3Xy1UdTd4bGptbjRhMFduMk9vUmF5a1ZfS2Y?oc=5
- [2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-israel-new-york-strait-of-hormuz-saudi-arabia-b3009330.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653267.shtml
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260705-iran-grande-pri%C3%A8re-pour-les-fun%C3%A9railles-d-ali-khamenei-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-07/opec-oelproduktion-foerderung-markt
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/business/opec-production-iran-war.html
- [7] http://government.ru/en/news/59229
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/cargo-ship-reportedly-attacked-in-red-sea-off-yemen/a-77838529?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3435361
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11953602/canada-seeking-clarity-annual-cusma-review
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260706053421yqP
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-trifft-Selenskyj-vor-Nato-Gipfel-id31050907.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/america/2026-07-05/la-paradoja-de-trump-en-venezuela-el-apoyo-a-un-regimen-al-que-prometio-derrocar.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/de/staatschefs-putin-und-selenskyj-rufen-trump-an/a-77836694?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOU2pnNmNzUTctOHVzeDVQdDZCZHBfZFlHUEhzcmN5c3BpUWVzaTlxQm5UNkZ1NC1SYkd3MkRaNFdSWkRSTXVFXzhpNXFjcWhqd0FVSEFFUG1MdTdfeUlLOVhDenh3UUt5N0NVTHRyLUFzbGFHVnpxY2xCZlFxZ204b3lJNUJyLUFGcjFleU5mOTlVak16MXl5cmVQTjBCd9IBowFBVV95cUxOWkhoQTlPVm1JU1RDQmkzc2UxdHZpZEY4U0pBSWdVUTdOcV9nVzBvQnB6eWhvSDhfWnA4REZvOFNsOGk3YXBCdHVMWHd6SlZ2MzhKdkpERm1EaW9OWjdVRFFZaS03SXpldGM4TjhHN0ZiN3paYnNuWGxISmFlckFVd24tYlhzUV9oSU1odTJOTUdGdU9ZSlJXT216b3BxVk43WDRV?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPZnM4c3Z0bXNvTWdmbVhPS0JpZ191RGp5UUduV3UwTm5vblhBQ2RTQ1doeHlCbXBJZnlGcm5XSWc1Sm1Wa29aX3pkRXA0d19GUl9jLWVGNVBjdjNGSU9nVC1fczNmQl9vOVJVOHVUM0Fvb1JFNGR4Y2VtUHB4dnZIXy1YZUtrOTZ1VjJ0OHlBQjJ4VGg5Tm9VZnhUMUxsbTlGSzJIRnpZMDRhOW_SAbABQVVfeXFMTUFjV1V0Ukc3ZnpUNXlSYmN1NmJUTlIzWGFIVGN5aEQ0WUxLWTl1MVFXeE5tU2k3M09Ya1RRMWhxNU9xWVppT1pQZGdWWG9PdXh4OGx5djlBaVcwQy1KRGZkZXhpb0ZfX3pFc09DWHdWWnMxR0ViS3BKOURIVUwzckVfSFEydFhxV3U4U19xQzdzSGpJa3Y3TUd6V3R4dDkwN3lMUFE0Ujg
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-funeral-khamenei-tehran.html
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/trauerfeier-iran-ali-chamenei-teheran
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/selenskyj-fuerchtet-massive-russische-attacke-vor-nato-gipfel
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/au-c%C5%93ur-de-l-info-l-invit%C3%A9/20260705-elena-volochine-le-pouvoir-russe-est-sur-une-ligne-de-cr%C3%AAte
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653265.shtml
- [22] https://orf.at/stories/3435327
- [23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/israel-tehran-donald-trump-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-strait-of-hormuz-b3009267.html
2026-07-05
2026-07-05
进展要点
- 轨迹（Stable）：死亡人数持续上升，灾后重建需求增加，但对市场影响逐渐被地缘政治盖过。
- 委内瑞拉强震死亡人数升至2954人，受伤超1.6万人，超1.6万人流离失所（China News Service）。
- IMF表示将释放资金用于灾后重建，但未明确金额和时间（Die Zeit Politics）。
- 余震持续，基础设施受损严重，石油生产恢复进度不确定。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉强震死亡人数升至2954人（China News Service）
- IMF将提供重建资金（Die Zeit Politics）
关注 / 展望
委内瑞拉石油生产短期难以恢复，但市场更关注中东与俄乌冲突。灾后重建可能带来大宗商品需求脉冲。
关联路径
地震破坏 / 石油生产中断 / 原油供给减少
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Sky News / RT News / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / Sud Ouest / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Mehr News Agency / A News / Kyiv Independent / France 24 #3 / El Mundo - International News / BBC News (Top) / Valor Econômico Politics / USTR Press Releases
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-hit-as-ukraine-targets-russia-in-major-drone-attack-13560510
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-05/10652908.shtml
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/642585-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-mourning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-04/iran-begins-dayslong-funeral-for-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-in-war
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-07/erdbeben-venezuela-la-guaira-tote-nachbeben
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPTnZZMm5oVERvUHpwZGVVazNQOFZmWERRRU9UWmk0Tkhyd2NOQTZJa2xkRXlqcXVGTmNPRFJ4TDdrNmo0ZXJXY1VoMW80QnNYLS1CalgzWmVrck1uZmxVX2JtTk05S1FrbUJpLV9DQkZaNFRSRnotT3YzVlNBN1hPZmpVc29KbmhWM1NlMVBDdmJfV0RhQWc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/iran/iran-une-foule-compacte-dans-le-centre-de-teheran-pour-un-dernier-adieu-a-khamenei-29795044.php
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/the-funeral-of-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-khamenei-s-funeral-ceremonies-officially-begin/a-77816592?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245890/Iran-s-Intel-Min-vows-to-avenge-blood-of-martyred-Leader
- [12] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-gives-iran-leverage-comparable-to-nuclear-weapon
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/major-russian-oil-refinery-suspends-operations-again-after-ukrainian-drone-strike
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260704-en-direct-d%C3%A9but-de-l-hommage-de-trois-jours-pour-le-d%C3%A9funt-guide-supr%C3%AAme-iranien-ali-khamenei
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a492bc9e85ece104c8b457a-video.html
- [16] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2vmzxezro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/04/trump-ofereceu-ajuda-a-putin-para-acordo-com-ucrnia-diz-assessor-do-kremlin.ghtml
- [18] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-ranchers-manufacturers-and-businesses-applaud-president-trump-not-rubber-stamping
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/4/russias-medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-irans-nuclear?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245884/Iran-warns-against-military-moves-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [21] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/uk-france-say-ready-to-deploy-multinational-force-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOUXVfTjQ0NmJWOW9yNFlPTUVySUVqZlV4NW93V0NKWTFRY2cxeWhzVjFDNVRaY1dNekVXSUEwVk1ROG0tSUc0SzJsVWJuUHM4UlFoOXNyeHBNcjNFRjVjX2Q1Qk5ZcVpqR3lZSnJ1X1J6Qmtoc3NCY1p2TkZHUmZ5YU14Q3I0NS1RSEx6M2F0X0NyQk42clZLMXhIZHJORGNxZkhpSnV4MjlaVkU3ZkpCaw?oc=5
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-04/10652893.shtml
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPUk1vYU8yRWN0UDZvcTNTSEtCQlc4NjQxdXFSdlVoZ2dSY3RfYlRlZDZGeGdLVGxNOE9lWHFYWW5FV3ZyNjZxSGZvX0FWTmZmZldRMEE5dlVCUEpfbXRmVEpxb19KSkIzWkk0U2llU1dQNm5iZk9ENU0tUDhULXpTSXlORVMxN2ZsQXhDeko4WXd1WVhMV2JPY2dUTXNqRjFMRV9MdGhVRThRY09WMWc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/4/will-economic-pressure-move-the-kremlin-towards-talks-with-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-july-4
- [27] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/europe/ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-la-russie-affirme-que-des-drones-envoyes-par-kiev-ont-touche-un-terminal-petrolier-a-saint-petersbourg-29788535.php
- [28] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a49243521efa0d45f8b458f.html
2026-07-04
2026-07-04
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：委内瑞拉强震造成2645人死亡、12666人受伤，联合国评估灾情。
- 地震可能影响委内瑞拉石油生产与出口设施。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震致2645死12666伤（Le Monde International）
关注 / 展望
关注灾后复产进度，若主要油田受损，将进一步收紧重质原油供应。
关联路径
地震 / 石油设施受损 / 原油产出下降 / 重质油溢价
来源
Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / The Independent / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / RT News / China Government English News
参考链接
- [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-seen-less-likely-raise-130759582.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/4/iran-war-live-millions-expected-in-tehran-for-funeral-of-ali-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/04/paris-und-london-wollen-strasse-von-hormus-mit-oman-absichern
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1IRmJkU3lmYi1xelNicG5hWFJ5QmJOc2U5dlJxN09Jc2EzM3J4dG5RSDZxNEE1akRYR3JkTEpjQ1VkQmZBVC1xMjdLaWhuVzhSTUhTTGRNZWhhcHN1dkJ6VmpCamxUOG9mZmlrRjdwQ0NsX3U3VGY5UzRxSdIBgAFBVV95cUxQS3FWdEt4UHMtMEM0Rmt0RENXTnJKTC04c3hsVlcxb2hYT2xJelk2SUJndHgwTk56ZnBnSGpiOFBOLW02QlgwcjhzanpIelB1b3otaW51czJPTnJTM0RERWlmdHRFSEJpNVVJcmRwMVdsNU14VUpfTkVaX2g5aGpFRg?oc=5
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-funeral-iran-b3008364.html
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russland-sucht-Benzin-im-Ausland-id31045531.html
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140474-suputnik-pokazav-stupin-poskodzenna-vijskovih-i-adernih-obektiv-iranu-zmi.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-russland-krieg-142.html
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/03/seisme-au-venezuela-un-dernier-bilan-fait-etat-de-2-645-morts-et-12-666-blesses_6720488_3210.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642546-iran-us-israel-ghalibaf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://english.www.gov.cn/news
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/iran-begins-week-of-funeral-ceremonies-for-slain-supreme-leader-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPanlfMW1EMnFya2ZMNmFLVjBtT3ctNzZIdmVvVlVsYlNYNTJMRXJaTXlRU3BET0dncnF1UDlTMFdmVy14ZnkwdVdjWjNrS203OExQQjBjTUJHRTRBVUdYYkRSVUVLVGszZjF2ZWRMU2VvY0RhWGhVTFpPV0VkTmE1cTVHVnZueU9OOHBnT0xCcmNZdVVmeS1WZzdyS050NUVNcm1BQVlGZmV6N0NySlFJa3NIRG9YNDk2QUhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/yemens-houthis-threaten-saudi-arabia-after-alleged-airspace-intrusion?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-crimea-moscow-b3008512.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNZkg1ZzBwMDZqYVhHLUwtUWhNbWd2eVJkOGdFcDJHZUxKWTRFc3MyZTdoWHpKczlmVTgwR2R5QjQwU0lhUmJNOVYydlppNHR3emVMaEVuQW9GY1RHU1pHVFhYcDRBeWZHcG1sVjFFYWp2blNseUZjVjRHampXU3BPeHVsWDZBMGhOUVJaaWF5dzN1bWdocWR5eFA1MU90ZlQ5cUhvTHEySXJ6LUsw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/rohstofffonds-bundesregierung-johann-wadephul-seltene-erden-brasilien
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/largest-us-power-grid-pjm-190819959.html
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/carl-skau-welternaehrungsprogramm-vereinten-nationen-hunger-iran
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/cossacks-volunteers-help-keep-order-043430489.html
- [21] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/07/03/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-dans-la-ville-de-kiev-au-lendemain-de-l-attaque-la-plus-meurtriere-depuis-le-debut-de-la-guerre-les-recherche-se-poursuivent-dans-les-decombres_6716525_3210.html
- [22] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bildet-China-russische-Soldaten-aus-Berlin-bittet-Botschafter-zum-Gespraech-id31046589.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/642553-us-wants-access-cook-islands-critical-minerals-ambassador/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-03
2026-07-03
进展要点
- 美国中部和东部遭遇破纪录高温，约1.63亿人受影响，电力供应紧张，铁路运输受阻。（Xinhua World）
关键事件
- 美国高温席卷1.63亿人，电力铁路承压（Xinhua World）
关联路径
高温 / 电力需求激增 / 柴油 / 天然气发电增加
来源
Xinhua World / Politika / Google News - World / The New Indian Express / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / La Tribune / Meduza / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767802/izrael-spreman-za-samostalni-vojni-udar-protiv-irana-ako-bude-potrebno
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOLVdjbGMxNzNIN0lpak9kdDNFQ2djWmhSYmh6Y2Y4SHpCbXdYWkRNMGlkSFBOOWtxSUNrSDFCTDM2N1VwTEt3ZnBJUmVaaUY1YXF1YjFacWg3UWNRUFlZSUhDTkN3Y3Z0Nm53QVY2T2xYUFJGbElEZHMteUMtYm9IY1JUTGZPUDRyWXpqYkpVZ2lTY0E?oc=5
- [3] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jul/02/iran-warns-oil-tankers-to-use-approved-routes-in-strait-of-hormuz-or-face-forceful-response
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/german-prosecutors-allege-ukraine-ordered-nord-stream-pipeline-attack?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-prices-jump-25-as-weak-us-jobs-data-cools-fed-hike-bets/3984510
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260703/a77dd64ae6ea4783832e416f5c77d0d2/c.html
- [7] https://www.latribune.fr/article/economie/international/22415974798200/etats-unis-le-marche-de-l-emploi-ralentit-les-marches-jubilent
- [8] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/v-zabaykalskom-krae-snyali-na-video-chetyrehkilometrovuyu-ochered-na-zapravku-rosnefti-v-ney-stoit-600-800-avtomobiley
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Besitzer-von-russischem-Tanker-zahlt-Millionenstrafe-an-Frankreich-id31040935.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140186-es-nacilivsa-na-tankeri-rosijskogo-tinovogo-flotu-aki-nezakonno-vikoristovuut-prapor-kamerunu-reuters.html
- [11] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-jumps-into-160-range-for-1st-time-in-2-weeks-on-intervention-fears
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/eu-targets-chinese-imports-amid-trade-talks/a-77800366?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5633043/ekspor-minyak-saudi-via-hormuz-capai-level-tertinggi-sejak-perang-iran
- [14] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-us-iran-talks-013010346.html
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767793/kovceg-sa-telom-hamneija-stigao-u-huseiniju-imama-homeinija-uoci-pocetka-oprostaja
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBpc3EzUGNBbk4wMk9vQi1ZcmgyTnJtSnE2NDZocXd6RFZaUXRieXhDa21yQ3lXLV9ia2tuMFFEVlMzTmpTNllZMHlUbw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPRlNwaTgzVm82dHE0SUZjMERWTHZEQWtERXVIaG1wbEJnSU80UFVJS1J6ZVAxOHpIQmE0QzhDalNCTFV6SmNhbW4wUlV4YmRvRUcwQlc2eDFpNnM4UUJZRlZIQnFqampTRDFjdUVkNHNiN1BuLW9tNVdZMzlsdzhrX1RNTXBVbkFCMm8zTGdub2xkZUpUZWNXSGFtZEkwZkxhWGVfRXlybGp2Z0cxMmtJY0FZNXkwblBk?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/with-hormuz-reopened-has-the-oil-shortage-turned-into-a-glut?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/saudi-crude-exports-from-gulf-hit-highest-since-iran-war-truce-report/3984278
- [20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-economy-adds-fewer-than-expected-57-000-jobs-in-june/3984359
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/why-has-trump-refused-to-renew-the-usmca-and-what-will-that-mean?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767783/medvedev-finska-ce-biti-medu-ciljevima-ruskog-nuklearnog-naoruzanja
- [23] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/kyrgyzstan-poprosil-sosednie-gosudarstva-i-belarus-pomoch-s-postavkami-topliva-90-benzina-strana-poluchala-iz-rossii
- [24] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-gelingt-weiterer-Schlag-gegen-russische-Oelindustrie-id31038777.html
2026-07-02
2026-07-02
进展要点
- 委内瑞拉强震导致死亡人数升至2295人，受伤11267人，并发生782次余震。（China News Service）
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉强震遇难人数升至2295人（China News Service）
关联路径
Venezuela earthquake / oil production disruption / crude supply tightness
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The New York Times / Deutsche Welle German News / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5DclJhM0xOZmJZWWVhemhJdmpBOWZzb0EtM1NiUEJtS2c3MGdsX2tqR3lpWjBPazg5QWE0LXR0X01VNVdqNk9kUDhIenB6NXRWR1RpeVVRTTBWc19fUjdTV0prSW53UWtJNnVKTXR3U2NGU3djR3Jv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702090822jwc
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651050.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20zgjzz0e4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-declines-to-renew-usmca-trade-pact-with-mexico-canada/a-77793686?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-takes-the-war-to-moscow-why-kyiv-unleashed-its-biggest-attacks-after-g7-summit/articleshow/132114028.cms
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/how-war-on-iran-changed-the-global-energy-sector-forever?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1078404/selat-hormuz-masih-dipenuhi-ranjau-pembersihan-perlu-2-bulan
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260702/172a0a8c075a4de388ee2f69eb4649a2/c.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/de/benzinkrise-in-russland-ukraine-setzt-putin-unter-druck/a-77776237?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-defence-minister-says-troops-to-stay-indefinitely-in-lebanon-syria-gaza/article71171573.ece
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651036.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702063728bit
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260702053914jcI
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPWFRJMk44c05WbExLd0NkcUJOQ05NUWI0U1N6YzBkSmNQVFlRMl9MLVIzaHRMY25hZE5PQUNuWktOMTJQUFdOODR5N0xYN3dIVUhpMUtzTzFIdk1WMFJ3MVptY3RsREM5QjRQRzZxZ3JTU3NscEdPUlRPeVFHaHRoZ05xN2dsZDZtLUVRNXNVZHlrVU1JU3FKSG5xSWN0UVdjN3hZaVRTbWhHYVk?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNWkZYV0pQcGtwWU8xYlNxQVJKNmxyc05LWWd3RnQ2M21VNTIta21JQ2puNF9EdXlqWTRPMHZqT3hOVE5Sa3o2NExGaGtxcmJHbGdCVzVEblVJeWpITGpRQkFxU0J0eTN0c2RuY04zYm1wZVNCX0c4NkJrVXZXR3IyVDBRUW5faXNiRnZPd2lmcmxOWkNPeHhDQzhQeU9xWVR3THRaaTY0OVM?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/us-says-it-wont-agree-to-renew-usmca?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-drop-in-prices-of-commercial-lpg-cylinders-aviation-turbine-fuel-as-west-asia-conflict-eases/article71171543.ece
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/shipping-companies-unions-still-consider-hormuz-a-warzone/article71171371.ece
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/7/1/is-ukraines-campaign-of-targeting-russian-refineries-working?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/business/kevin-warsh-inflation-ecb.html
- [23] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-japan-to-sign-lng-security-pact-during-pm-modi-takaichi-bilateral/articleshow/132117357.cms
2026-07-01
2026-07-01
进展要点
- 委内瑞拉发生强震，已造成1943人遇难，可能影响当地基础设施与经济活动。（China News Service）
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉强震致1943人遇难（China News Service）
关联路径
Venezuela earthquake / oil production disruption / crude supply risk
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Times of India / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Global Issues News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News Agency / Der Spiegel International
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202607010850442qy
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-01/10650307.shtml
- [3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/ready-for-war-iran-draws-red-line-for-us-says-no-final-talks-until-mou-terms-are-met/articleshow/132101599.cms
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNZEdXXzVMUmJGZERrSXRVNF9LOTdhOUxtZXVtaDFsem1BWlVFRFp5cXc4bTh2NzdPaE5tczBLeEVwNmNjNHRIS1pLYUpNWjRldFpxRl9HaU9EUndraFZMSDlYOHJxbm1lWUx2ckxBR3F6MGgxSEc2NlQ5U3p3LUh3ZVVFOWtSWkU4ZXZrakdR?oc=5
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/30/russias-fuel-crisis-deepens-following-ukrainian-drone-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/30/43450
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/business/surge-in-ship-traffic-across-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-oman-talk/article71166788.ece
- [9] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-hits-40-low-clock-010137784.html
- [10] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5629572/menkeu-as-klaim-iran-belum-bisa-jual-minyak-ke-pembeli-selain-china
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260701001700320
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/temu-shein-co-auf-billiglieferungen-aus-asien-wird-jetzt-zoll-faellig-a-1d7879a6-f2a6-4a55-b808-5be665d0b3c2
- [13] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/free-navigation-in-hormuz-essential-pm-modi-to-iran-president-masoud-pezeshkian/articleshow/132101358.cms
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxQb2p2djNjY0JQWEFJd3pmRGNkdXlMU1lWRzZsdnpNS0lveUZkTXMtSVpySmtKOFQ2NjZmaXNodWxHcjNlY2dINTROcnQ3elVCbUoyMkc0TTdEWGhjWm4wNEwycm54ZnllVkhSSEt2NHlYeVpxVTFMN1RVV0ZNcVJWVUNLZWNkeG5RSDh0M293dUs?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxQWU5DMS1mNG9RNm8yTTkzclFNMWVNRmtCNmI0M1kxdEF4RkdrTlJBV1lCeTFpUGVFcDVRRzdoSDZBYkJYbWRKaEJOWTBwREZUS3ZEMFlCYWU3N2F3eGREWHJBM0l4Q09lLWItS3VvenpzUjlJbTAyc0pzNi1zaVNKS1FwTTF3MUkxX2FTX1k0LUcyTm4xMkxscmd3?oc=5
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260701062203CdI
- [17] https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/export-duty-on-diesel-atf-reduced-petrol-increased/article71167106.ece
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/30/how-severe-is-russias-energy-shortage-because-of-ukrainian-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260630222930ztm
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/hands-off-strait-of-hormuz-iran-says-foreign-intervention-will-only-complicate-issues/articleshow/132093679.cms
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/1/iran-war-live-qatars-pm-meets-us-envoys-tehran-holds-firm-on-conditions?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-01/10650316.shtml
2026-06-30
2026-06-30
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：委内瑞拉强震死亡人数持续增加，联合国扩大救援；印度干旱加剧农业风险。
- 委内瑞拉中北部地震死亡超1700人，联合国协调扩大响应（Global Issues News）。
- 印度6月降雨量较均值低42%，或成百年第三干旱6月（Times of India）。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉强震死亡超1700人（Global Issues News）
- 印度6月降雨量较均值低42%（Times of India）
关注 / 展望
委内瑞拉石油生产短期受冲击，印度农作物减产风险上升；后续关注拉尼娜对季风恢复的影响。
关联路径
委内瑞拉地震 / 石油产量下降 / 重质原油供应偏紧
印度干旱 / 甘蔗、豆类减产 / 农产品价格上行
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #2 / ANTARA News / Der Spiegel International / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Times of India / BBC News (Top) / ABC News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxQMVpLSXJnM0gxVVF5Um5raVAzNVVkdGdTRVRqallDVjBXYlhMWGZiTWdhTUdHWWY0enFRcHYwbkRjLXBTQV8zdEdVTjFUTGU1LWdJZTZjd3RNSko4NDAxdWFHVkZqZDlETGF6RjZSM21ITWs5akYwZU5XelYzSklIYXliRW5IN1JZVWdZeg?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606300651257SU
- [3] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deliver-conflicting-reports-on-fresh-peace-talks/live-77746775?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-iran-has-made-it-very-clear-that-there-are-new-rules-analyst-says
- [5] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5628112/iran-menolak-rencana-prancis-bersihkan-ranjau-di-selat-hormuz
- [6] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/strasse-von-hormus-die-iraner-verteidigen-ihr-bestes-druckmittel-a-9d50f451-10b2-4e68-99f6-a2118a92ede5
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-30/10649607.shtml
- [8] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/29/43441
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/us/politics/trump-fire-fed-governor-cook.html
- [10] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/42-rain-deficit-this-june-is-set-to-be-indias-3rd-driest-in-100-years/articleshow/132079606.cms
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyw31zvpgmo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/supreme-court-blocks-trump-now-firing-fed-board/story?id=134256258
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVkFVX3lxTE5Vdlc0SjRVXzVDN2NWNDhNQUM4c3RIY1F1T084VjRSbXBFdTB6QkRHcFNpSno1T2Z3djh5eUtWNC11NmtQcUJRWWRRX1BPZ2VrRDZCaXJR?oc=5
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxQOGNKTl9zUll6dG5Td3ZkWGtWRW5ZYXVGR2ZudGZUeWR5dVdLcWt3bzB6eS1VQ1hMMjBreEpmc1ZMR0VOeVZubjBPUXBlUEZOZ2lCWnFvcENZMkRyeXh6SzNHRGJVYWxtazAtSXotQ2lhUkJraUhfblppM1RXZUY5YTlsUU9yMkptdGYtZVc3VzgzZGZ5M1FHOE5lTm9hZFlnS2lGeFlRZ0hSNFVtVm1YdlZMcU1PaFF1RGNHc1lpYw?oc=5
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260630033107CD0
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260630004449cpD
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260629-why-oman-has-become-a-key-diplomatic-player-in-mideast-war
- [18] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260629-hostilit%C3%A9s-en-pause-entre-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-et-washington-premi%C3%A8re-rencontre-irano-omanaise-sur-ormuz
- [19] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-30/10649623.shtml
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/no-negotiation-at-any-level-iran-refutes-donald-trumps-claim-of-planned-us-talks-in-doha/articleshow/132079125.cms
2026-06-27
2026-06-27
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：委内瑞拉强震造成重大伤亡，救援仍在进行，但未进一步恶化。
- 委内瑞拉强震已致920人死亡，数百人被困，国际救援队开始抵达（来源：BBC News Top）
- 地震地点靠近委内瑞拉主要石油产区，可能影响该国本就脆弱的石油产量
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉地震致920人死亡（BBC News Top）
关注 / 展望
关注委内瑞拉石油基础设施受损程度及产量恢复进度
关联路径
委内瑞拉地震 / 石油生产中断 / 供应减少压力
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / The Hindu / RT News / Die Zeit Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Global Issues News / UK Government Policy Papers and Consultations / Times of India / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / El País Internacional / ANTARA News Jawa Timur
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxPbDlLTkhYQkV2OWVHSEJNangxWWRNcWwwQkYxWXV4Q1c3UF94TWNFVzlzVUdPYkRvLWp4Yjh6TE5NYW53TTRhVm9rNUktNHlkRGFwcHFTREFoYnljZkUxbktLcG5HNmd3VWl3TFZWRlB0aVpJTkFjazZMaC1VaktWU3FnUGxHSkd6dm1zWHN3N1pvSmxHN1pLTl9RVUcyX0U?oc=5
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/briefing/us-military-strikes-iran.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260626-middle-east-war-us-strikes-iran-trump-ceasefire-violated
- [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-iran-usa-israel-conflict-washington-tehran-peace-deal-donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz-live-updates-june-26-2026/article71149347.ece
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/642253-us-military-conducts-strikes-against-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/26/us-militaer-haben-angriffe-gegen-iran-durchgefuehrt
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/26/us-strikes-iran-in-response-to-drone-strike-on-commercial-ship?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260627083927x80
- [9] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/26/43421
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-27/10648216.shtml
- [11] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-joint-ministerial-statement-on-energy-security-and-supply-chains-for-essential-energy-products-and-other-impacted-products
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-military-conducts-strikes-on-iran-hours-after-trumps-foolish-violation-warning-over-hormuz-attack/articleshow/132024813.cms
- [13] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4rd71411ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [14] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39y79g7gzko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260627/2a72f4f3dcc64d54811994addef844e1/c.html
- [16] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-26/iran-trata-de-mantener-el-control-sobre-ormuz-mientras-trump-le-acusa-de-violar-el-alto-el-fuego.html
- [17] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1077148/iran-sebut-pelayaran-hormuz-tidak-dapat-dijamin-tanpa-koordinasi
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260627081704OxX
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260627081109tf5
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260626-us-strikes-iran-after-trump-says-ceasefire-was-violated
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260626-trump-threatens-100-tariffs-on-europe-if-countries-impose-tax-on-us-digital-services
- [22] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-strike-on-iran-donald-trump-hormuz-strait-june-27-2026/article71152185.ece
- [23] https://www.zeit.de/politik/2026-06/us-militaer-greift-ziele-im-iran-trotz-vereinbarter-waffenruhe-an
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg590wqxwpo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
2026-06-26
2026-06-26
进展要点
- 轨迹（突发）：委内瑞拉24日发生7.2级和7.5级强震，已致至少188人死亡，3万余人失踪（The Independent、Xinhua）。
- 基础设施严重受损，天然气供应暂停，港口受损（Xinhua）。
- 死亡人数持续攀升，逾2.7万人失踪（The Independent）。
关键事件
- 委内瑞拉百年最强地震致164死（The Independent）
- 强震致天然气供应暂停（Xinhua）
关注 / 展望
救援与重建压力巨大，委内瑞拉石油生产和出口面临中断，短期或推升油价。
关联路径
地震 / 油气生产中断 / 原油供应收紧
来源
Xinhua World / n-tv Politik / Sky News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Google News - World / C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / The Independent / RT News / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Strasse-von-Hormus-nach-Schiffsangriff-zeitweise-geschlossen-id31014682.html
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/un-suspends-strait-of-hormuz-evacuation-after-ship-hit-by-projectile-13557819
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/26/iran-war-live-israel-attacks-lebanon-as-netanyahu-says-troops-to-stay?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137757-iran-atakuvav-civilne-sudno-v-ormuzkij-protoci.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE95V3NFS3M5NHpEM1c3cDZFbFAxeU9rQ3JmaFUyVzlxOWtnTkNuY0VZeURhNjl3bk94dG1JaTJ4OG16dG9RendIeklId0h5Y1lGMmV3bnpuUTZrTEROUkJwU09qdkhxR0hmUXFPSTFMcm8?oc=5
- [6] https://cdhowe.org/publication/north-american-free-trade-is-gone-dead-and-buried
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwg9np904qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/daily-commercial-vessel-traffic-in-strait-of-hormuz-hits-post-war-high/3978114
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/un-agency-says-pauses-hormuz-180527069.html
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/25/british-military-says-cargo-ship-hit-by-projectile-off-oman-near-un-approved-route-for-strait-of-hormuz
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-earthquake-death-toll-missing-magnitude-b3003101.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/6fc8b99c6a274ace906e96c21e462d1a/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642124-iran-us-hormuz-dispute/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5623523/menlu-as-sebut-negara-negara-teluk-tolak-biaya-tarif-atas-selat-hormuz
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOb2hvUU8ta3ZNNEpHLXViODlSdk1odzlhUUtPLUtLWkV3ZWtaVi02RmxKbTdjbnNGUjk2SVhxQWVwVjdDbURXdUMyWW9vX2R2Y1V2bWZKLVpnLWc4eWJsUDd0RW5sZWxYTFMzZ1RKNE5vSTFMUkUtOG50LTVJM3NRaW5ERXdnUmhwNHhjYWo2enhOWENiQWJTWHdzNnhfTXEyNWNYbEVobzh1a2Z2RjdZ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNbEVHVTRvRDdQV0h4aHloNU1NUjJwSVNVTTlhY2pjSF83aEZXVWo3QXpQbi1QdXctRFc3dmxRODluMnlqSEJlLTdZQTJrTmF2Z19kcWZfd0ZlTEtLQTl6akQxRjBUYVB4eGFBd0lzbi0tTEU0NEdYMm1xRUYyMG44UklkVmpMMUhHM2YxcnlJamhRcFlEcElhb0FjbzdQSnJsaExpaVk2aGdkNTNZajd1bjZR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-gulf-states-call-for-reopening-hormuz-reject-any-tolls-fees-or-attempts-to-assert-control-over-waterway/3978163
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-thursday-25-june-2026-b3003096.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/featured-documentaries/2026/6/25/iran-israel-and-the-bomb?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/oman-backs-iran-us-deal-says-future-hormuz-transit-will-be-fee-free/3977936
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/45341251187b4f638ce2cdb87dab7551/c.html
2026-06-24
2026-06-24
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：印度季风降雨量较均值低43%，政府启动应急计划，可能影响农作物产量。
关键事件
- 印度因季风偏弱制定应急计划（Al Jazeera）
关注 / 展望
关注印度主要作物（水稻、甘蔗）产区降雨情况，若持续偏少将推升全球农产品价格。
关联路径
弱季风 / 印度农业减产 / 全球粮食价格温和上行
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / BBC News (Top) / Die Presse / La Libre - International Europe / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / DW German News Service / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/un-starts-evacuating-11000-stranded-sailors-from-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNUEhPMFVsd1lLSFU1bXQ0TzBxLVRNdU5RbXRkZlN3aVNBQXpiajR4ZXNxMlY1YkhUcGF0OWV5eFIwOW1xdDh3ME82X1QteF9BM1hBYnhvZ3FaZFJITi1PakFsajBma3ljWE9SNmYtQktKYVYybTlUdDBXOGZ2Yi0yNFIwQlpPRGpZOHNqMGpvcw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/iran-strait-of-hormuz-marco-rubio-keir-starmer-british-b1287320.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/de/teheran-iran-wird-straße-von-hormus-verwalten/a-77667212?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24yr796emzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.diepresse.com/32460710/us-aussenminister-rubio-werden-keine-durchfahrtsgebuehren-fuer-hormuz-akzeptieren
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10646007.shtml
- [8] https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/guerre-ukraine-russie/2026/06/23/lukraine-met-la-russie-a-mal-en-visant-ses-raffineries-petrolieres-EPPFHLLF2RHHPEEVROSKWKNC6E
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/latest-pentagon-asks-congress-roughly-125943212.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260623/9d0c0295538e4810be1c22f104c67b91/c.html
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4136940-senat-ssa-pidtrimav-rezoluciu-aka-zobovazue-trampa-pripiniti-voenni-dii-proti-iranu.html
- [12] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-crimea-shortages-putin-pressure-rcna351328
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-buv-vrazhenyi-ukrainskymy-udaramy-vhlyb-rosii-ta-pohodyvsia-na-novi-sanktsii-ft
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/china-plans-postwar-aid-for-iran-with-eye-on-energy-supply
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/23/un-begins-evacuation-of-11000-sailors-stranded-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNUVNPcElCT1VQZnphbHBYdzZYNmY5Q0JBTnZfbUpjNVZCQzhLSURFbDlVLS1kYWpCc2xUTkRtaThBOG01WWxfLWlNZnBFaklrbnY5Z25tM0tGSHFjX0NnRzVwRkJYVUZCUm5vY242cVFBMmswNmhXMlI3Qy1HQ2s2VC1Fbmo1RFhhZEthekdQWDdaVjhJdVJYT2VhQURYdGdfcWdsdnJlelZPMmtiR3QwWFl3?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNR2hHa0NIT2RJMkFOTmhXUzFUOHVFTFdIUmVnQ2RGVmVWbms1UzJNaDhwWUdWT2NJbk9USGVncGV5VktVUXE2Unc4dkYyNUczZld4TFRTbEdSNEtZSjJSeldsaXkxNjRfT2hLOVg1MkZlMzY3cmRmRzhDY3VnZmNwMDJqMGFpRHFHb2M3cEQ4eGxRWnYyaEQ0TU05S0w5d1pwS2VXVVNkbjMyWElISGkzaUVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx23rnzdgl8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [21] https://unn.ua/news/yes-u-travni-zbilshyv-zakupivli-rosiiskoho-zph-popry-obmezhennia-crea
- [22] https://unn.ua/news/yes-ne-maie-kupuvaty-haz-i-naftu-v-rf-yakshcho-khoche-zmusyty-putina-do-perehovoriv-hlava-mzs-italii
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/india-prepares-contingency-plans-due-to-weak-monsoon-season?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy06495y2lko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://www.diepresse.com/32195277/neue-trump-zoelle-das-sind-die-moeglichen-gewinner-und-verlierer-der-deals
- [26] https://www.diepresse.com/32177719/benzinkrise-regt-die-russen-auf-und-setzt-putin-unter-druck
2026-06-20
2026-06-20
进展要点
- 法国正经历一个月内第二次异常热浪，气温预计将超过40°C，导致多个市镇取消音乐节活动。法国电力公司警告，由于罗讷河和加龙河水温过高，三座核电站下周可能面临减产。（France 24 #2）
关键事件
- 法国遭遇一个月内第二次异常热浪，核电生产面临限制（France 24 #2）
关联路径
Heatwave / river water temperature rise / nuclear plant output curbs
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / ANTARA News / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / France 24 #2 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-20/10644042.shtml
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1gFBVV95cUxOQXlqcnpaR3o0Z1ZSYkJYeVVFVEFDSEJVUlpZenEwaFctMnF0djBzR21tSEhqbFYycU9fQU1mU1RnX3pwZ1h2bzlQb2hrdDBlaFBWdm1hREdLdGxNMFlGRmpzT2hSLURGTmg1TVh4VTdoeFRLX1ktOVFPQUl0ZGRWNnl4NjlLSXkxcWQwUWZReU92ZUJjQ2I2YjZ1VkZZT1otaEJ5em54dy0tbDA3VDBsLU9fUGtIeVhjUUhaXzRkNHNWeWY5TkN0eWYzZ1JpTjJfNHZGcHFB?oc=5
- [3] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615485/iran-perintahkan-penanganan-cepat-permohonan-melintasi-selat-hormuz
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004136J4S
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/19/petrol-shortages-and-oil-rain-bring-russia-ukraine-war-home-to-moscow?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/business/iran-us-hormuz-shipping.html
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyk7kkygj5o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/france-tries-to-cope-with-second-premature-heatwave-in-less-than-a-month
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/632840-nord-stream-ukrainian-narrative/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260619235105m1A
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004225eYP
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxNdU5tQXdFTmhQaTBlNzE0bmpXQmltS2VkMFViNUxJeTFnd3pFMFhmRl8xQTNLODN5Q2dyMmRsbjEzdjhRZXE2Sm00YTgycTd1MG1lSWpBd2pBdGFXT1F6Sk5jNGIyZHp1T2dDNTNaQXBvTm44VHhwQzY5d09oLV83aHYtdEloVjZYdGRrdUhpTF85MHdi?oc=5
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615144/harga-minyak-naik-di-atas-80-dolar-as-karena-perundingan-as-iran-batal
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxQTzRLQ29MWjBGdTlfY1hROEVtV0VGOEdvT2k2YXNSMXhYRkZRcExBaXZBTlZFdWxlRFlyZUxpZUZMalY2ejVVVjVBaTFwaUNKeGtFbWlJZ1JqX3BjTHAwUk5oX3NjNEpwVmxOMU5iUFQyZjFtVVBvb2YwRGN5VzEtdlhVRG1uWjRLbVhOYVFOYk9HdjJIYVRVN1dxOUNNRGJPdXlrSFhXOHUzV2hjaUlN0gG0AUFVX3lxTE94Qk0xYktYT1IyQ2NJdEpQa3djME5xT1JTbW1PcUUyRDh2TlhaWDBWcXIzeUV3Y0xkWmh0dVBJUnFRbUtQYVR4WnZWOU9MdkFPVldPcjZ3Z2Nna05lcjRwMGg0TFNmT21Xa2tncS1PX0VreWloTzJTWEQxU2xfanVxZ18zZEY3dDVoN3FLancyRDVreldhWm54T0VSWlpzRElGeEp
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/6/19/trumps-iran-deal-a-victory-lap-before-the-victory?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/business/economy/iran-sanctions-oil.html
- [17] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5615243/dialog-dengan-iran-tertunda-as-kerahkan-jet-tempur-ke-timur-tengah
- [18] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/israel-lebanon-trump-cease-fire.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9wFBVV95cUxNYmI0Y2tMenRfSFpFQzBVTUsyWXVWR3pSREM2WjlncERxT0tZakNNaVFibkp4SXBQdWZmaXg3WnpBbDNncVhjZVdiYWFJd0JWUHhTaVhJelZkc2o4NEZHZ0NibGltV1B5RC0tVTZFRlJ4RTBOZGVOTnVUcmc4ZXRCMTN4NVpCV1JRY1RDUnNSdDNNWEpKaXNyN2ZUdHdHRm91T0l1aTZuUVpubk0zYmJNeEEwVGlweHRZckNCeGpiVWNqaHRObmlVd0l4RXZQWW9XTTQ0VmxqNXgtV1MtZmVIelA0d0NSSUV1cmJFaUNQWjFvNU5iYnBB0gH8AUFVX3lxTE5tTUZEekFJTUNSN0JvZEc0bkZveVgtT2V1ZjhRcEJubTRlMURnR09KbWJPR2VvVkU1c2Z5UU5NNGI0d0ExYUpzcVV5MWgtVzJhd3p3VFdVVTQydFp
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260620004057Hqx
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimgFBVV95cUxOUml2Q3B3MVdhUXo3eFhxdmdlZWhSbzZXOWc1MXEtMkl6V0V2UWxsQzBUYUJEb19lWXo4VUxnOXFmYzEzbUFPM0VLUnRFNC1rTkhTN0xiZzcxY09wMjNWT0NkWnlKb2lZR19LaFJ3a3RsQU85b1dYZnNsb3BqeUswMnVHTy1KSE5LUUYtdXFuOW9IaS03dndINDVR?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBLYlF3RTJYa29oY0xMZGxnNnBHV010MkdaZWdjaDFaaUZsaDVqT0VDRmdoZ2RncU55bUZLbWlBNHFoWmREQWhaZ2t1QQ?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQZUlabWgwdElDRVdLdjVrdWdtbmZIYzh4V3NTT3BGTFpiWnFJU2w0NnF1RU1ha3lRUnlXY0xlSDlHUElSTTBnY3UzNXVERC1Hd3Q4RkQtQ1F1cl9OS0tLaW9LRzM2M0hibnlKWlA3SlZmcGZFYlloR3NESmNrMTdpaDBVRzRqT2paREplcV9wX194Wk1yb0hQSG8zdE9YeXR6cGM3Z0djS2tUOGNpVDR0aQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxQbkdWQjYzX0NOaGtfVGdEdkNrNWhjYmN2V2VfWHJXTm5jWlpueEV6ekFiTHN0Nm1IaHJYMndKdTAyLTZibUtwcmlLbk5HUGhJR2w0ZFkxOHpEaWR3WThRNF80OHg4a1NUa3diajFhNEk3cU1aWV8xSHJNMjRJNjdNa2h6RnJ5RG5LTXFIQXRSVjNZR1FvemoxZzBOdWIydmZtZ3dXNlZKVVFnc0RNWW9QbE5PQWRRYXk2ZHlmRmZrWUZlU1llTjJ6S3ZJd0FYZw?oc=5
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/world/europe/russia-moscow-missile-refinery.html
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiekFVX3lxTE5vT3ZqemNSamZ2Ri15Vm1RQVRnNExNM0JjN216VGthWXlCT2NHR2hJaTQtQUZGS1MyYkpUNnd3MjBSeDROdWk3ZHlHdFJINUZMZUlrN3JDdUJIaWZLTFVrVTdTMHJBMFAxUnI4S25fY20tdF9Ia0xCbzln?oc=5
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxOV29fWjZZTWVBOFQzemQ1bjlYc1o2QWRZdkdXa3BiLUNhR213WmZBSUZEUUxtbm5EVzhrSXY1NnJYenFCWk9Nd2dSQkxZOHNwVjUyeGVTMVVVbGFYVXR3MHJyOE1BVDJPQUR2Z19QTUhmRjZ5UlVHVzliQTJxZTUxTUNKREJRQmhUbkJuN0d2QzdVQW50VFhxVUZWMDl1V2R6cE5NUUVTMlpOeU1vd2p6Xy03Q3VwZGZjYW1WVXJTNNIBxAFBVV95cUxNQmNHVkpZZU0yQVlPSzhqUE5mNUMtZVVTckNHNW5fSTdTS0c1M28zYUtBUVpjYW5BQUcwNUdjWTR3LTB5eTBRTjZ4VXB4dC1Mb1pMczh3aDVsYldzUlYwTmJLM1RlbVBCc2dvcDZsRFo2aXlxTURfTzZyV2gyb1NOVmhpaHktLW52YkNEcVd5b3lsVTN
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQQm9XSkVxdVBZVDc5ZkNXbVZSTXAwZElpTFp4a3pFRTU3Z28wMm9wWm5lcXgtajF2SmptTXZFZk5sUnctTVFrOTZZRGNnNGpkLVlweEhSWm4zZ29LT0JKOFAwemV4SlVwTlctQkhRdElpajFNazNEVS13cUdwRkR3X0p3?oc=5
2026-06-13
2026-06-13
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：从5月底中国冬小麦收割进展顺利到6月厄尔尼诺正式形成，强厄尔尼诺概率上升。
- 印度气象局（IMD）6月12日宣布厄尔尼诺条件已形成，预计季风期间加强，可能导致弱季风。
- 美国气候预测中心给出63%概率在11月至1月发展为超强厄尔尼诺。
关键事件
- 印度气象局：厄尔尼诺条件已出现并将在季风季增强（Times of India）
- 美国NOAA预测63%概率发展为超强事件（Times of India）
关注 / 展望
季风降雨若偏少将影响印度农业产出，超强厄尔尼诺可能引发全球极端天气，关注其对农产品和能源需求的结构性影响。
关联路径
厄尔尼诺加强 / 印度弱季风 / 糖、稻米等农产品供应收缩
超强厄尔尼诺 / 全球极端天气 / 大宗商品价格波动率上升
来源
Yonhap News TV / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / UK Government News and Communications / Times of India / The Hindu / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260613085752ynp
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260612-middle-east-live-iran-says-us-war-deal-could-be-signed-remotely-in-coming-days
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/6/12/will-there-be-a-deal-to-end-the-iran-war-this-time?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQMy1fbWtVcXVDRm5ISTB2a2lrQURZSjduUXBFUUMwOTZFQkE4dmMyYVJuZVROektFV0xjRVFqNlVfc05LczVnTklEOUxKeTdkalVOY21GOGZ1dGZGMXczRTMyTU41SnpldEdaQ1VsSUszaVdxZm1SMmZGZnVvMXhKU1B3?oc=5
- [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqdl8xre7qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-set-end-date-for-imports-of-russian-diesel-and-jet-fuel-via-third-countries
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/sanctions-relief-lebanon-ceasefire-inclusion-hormuz-reopening-inside-the-14-point-us-iran-potential-deal-framework/articleshow/131685000.cms
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/shows/watch-100-days-of-iran-war-what-are-indias-diplomatic-options-after-3-indians-killed-worldview/article71094310.ece
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5606137/prosesi-pemakaman-ali-khamenei-dijadwalkan-akhir-juni
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/mediator-iran-talks-says-final-183217578.html
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/world/middleeast/iran-peace-deal-what-to-know.html
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-disputes-leaked-terms-of-deal/live-77520654?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-rejects-irans-peace-deal-claims-accuses-tehran-of-attacking-vessels-carrying-indian-seafarers/article71094753.ece
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260613083858SYX
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi5gFBVV95cUxOWXZFVFVpaWpJR2d1WDM0eklhWVF4SjllZ1RkdXVvTmY4N1VySzRQd3k5TGdHdGQtQ0RnLUthcXRQakdxcUtxejFSblFLWlRQODhIaUtKN2dGcUpDX01LTVdERXJ3WnFMckRwWS1qSjdQaUxCVThCMzExOXNHcl8yM3oyX3ZmdnlITEJsUjl6RGpaZFp5NjlZdFNKcmRLUEF1MXY2ZkhrdTlvZ0lpODZaR2RyT0ozYUhRdUFJaWg5TVkxb0pmM0htTE5LLUVmM0pOcHRLWGVndmJGNGJ4UWpWc1oyaXFRUQ?oc=5
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/12/putin-admits-ukraine-attacks-hitting-russian-economy-society?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxPcGlJeWNsNVlXNWZEbDByVlY2MnVLNmZlYlprTFR2QTJqTl9SdFNuRV9SYnBUN29ORUVZZEwyT3VsSkc3MWh4bW55ZXU4ZXNTUGw4YmFHWEhGb2t4TEQ2dW9hdXRGWFJVTldBRURRWC1MZ0hkd09lVGlBLXc3QXRJZVM0dXo?oc=5
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-world-this-week/20260612-iran-ukraine-belfast-albania-s-flamingo-revolution
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260613001746Xv7
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/forecasts-indicate-el-nio-to-grow-stronger-during-monsoon-imd/articleshow/131695101.cms
- [21] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/el-nio-here-63-chance-it-will-be-super-strong-us/articleshow/131695624.cms
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/12/iran-no-timeline-yet-for-signing-us-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260612-moyen-orient-l-iran-%C3%A9voque-des-progr%C3%A8s-significatifs-vers-un-accord-avec-washington
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/india-summons-us-deputy-chief-of-mission-again-after-another-attack-on-ship-with-indian-crew/article71094969.ece
2026-06-05
2026-06-05
进展要点
- 欧洲气象机构表示厄尔尼诺现象已形成，太平洋海温在5月超过0.5°C阈值，预计将影响全球天气模式，包括印度季风。（Times of India）
关键事件
- 欧洲机构确认厄尔尼诺到来，太平洋升温（Times of India）
关联路径
El Niño / weather pattern shift / crop yield uncertainty
来源
Xinhua Finance / China News Service / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / The New York Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260605/7973c1317fd1426bab5ffe07fa264bd2/c.html
- [2] https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariff-proposal/story?id=133584802
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260605061817JZV
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/640972-eu-hormuz-naval-mission/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/middle-east-matters/20260604-strait-of-hormuz-oil-crisis-an-opportunity-for-syria
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOT003RTBZYjRUa3FHNEZweGRpNnM0VHhLQy1iY1lTSEVoQXl4NXgtVHN2RWhINktWRnd1SG9xZ09fYV9HLUJXT0ZnNDRBeko3S2tydXp6cmN2VHdndmxpLW84c2N1TmE2VURFTXUxQnc5WmJQLXQzalFVUllTLXpKX2steEc5dGJxWldFTlpzWURsa2M1cHgyOEN0YjNpOUxaY25SQmJ3cENONUwwNDJOZHVubS1vSHJDdEZWVTZudXlNd29P?oc=5
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/hezbollah-rejects-us-brokered-ceasefire-deal-between-israel-and-lebanon?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/brazil-to-ramp-up-oil-output-as-asia-looks-for-iran-alternative
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-05/10634491.shtml
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-open-letter-to-putin-zelenskyy-calls-for-meeting-and-ceasefire/article71062934.ece
- [11] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-s-zelenskyy-proposes-putin-meeting-on-ending-war/a-77427312?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/el-nino-is-here-says-european-agency-amid-pacific-warming/articleshow/131516828.cms
- [13] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/climate/trump-coal-plants-funding.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPaFlaYlY3cW1haWpSUVNzWmZLV0VOTm9TaEM1UFdxdFBOSUJaWWJzS0x5VnZEaXpQNmZvX2JTLUhpb21jMnFEeVE2bERvRWl6cXl2cThpVTdHTThZUUhVQ2pXMTBrRnYyWXJCdW9DRXBCTWxXOHNLdTBrZVZOaXQ2N2lHQ3V0VkszYWZmNDhCb1gwQXBiaHRHZnlzTGMwTUtIeUtj?oc=5
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxQXzhwX2s4YkZjdnpieUdhRmVDSjZMTnhabmdMMkpXWFFFcHRnLTBIQkpTLWtYaUdweTBTRnRfQVFTM0d3Z2R4SzdNaXIya09vZmpRbWRPM1p5UG15S3ZVWGJpcWFWZ19OekQtR2JfWFpWQ0ZDZVJNQk1VWGJwM2laVFhIRUYtOFBQa0NPcmJrRGhHQklaNU9HZkRwbmUwbm8?oc=5
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/640955-trump-new-ceasefire-definition/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260604224303UPC
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606050922570pg
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/4/lebanon-latest-hezbollah-rejects-us-plan-as-israel-continues-attacks?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260604-zelensky-in-open-letter-to-putin-proposes-face-to-face-meeting-and-full-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/4/saudi-energy-minister-call-for-stable-energy-sector-on-russia-visit?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260604-israel-s-defence-minister-says-military-operations-in-lebanon-will-continue-despite-ceasefire
2026-06-03
2026-06-03
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：全球极端天气事件频率上升，厄尔尼诺风险加剧印度季风不确定性。
- 世界气象组织警告厄尔尼诺现象正在快速发展，形成概率80%，可能持续至11月并严重削弱印度季风（Times of India）。
- 印度极端高温已导致奶牛食欲下降、产奶量减少，农民成本上升（The Hindu）。
关键事件
- WMO厄尔尼诺警报：印度季风风险加剧（Times of India）
- 极端高温考验印度创纪录牛奶产量（The Hindu）
关注 / 展望
厄尔尼诺若如期发展，将影响全球粮食和软商品供应，特别是印度蔗糖、大米和棉花产量。
关联路径
厄尔尼诺 / 印度季风减弱 / 农作物减产 / 农产品价格上升
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/3/iran-war-live-us-strikes-irans-qeshm-says-tehran-attacks-kuwait-bahrain?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085457liG
- [3] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-touches-160-against-dollar-erasing-intervention-gains
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/c93fcadd37c747f8810b4ad6dfdd63e6/c.html
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/politics/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy02rz27l32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-strikes-on-us-bases-in-kuwait-air-defences-intercept-missiles-drones/articleshow/131473476.cms
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-03/10633255.shtml
- [9] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260602/19640fb1fceb4718ba72049b59b728bc/c.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE9xb2xWUEo3ZzZMWGdYTU55NjBlNXcteWV1VEptRGVONlN3RjMyRHcyT19tbmlDOWVJMm5saWdTMXhpRlFudnFxZ1NkUk14VzRxUnpZNHFpT3hobi16NVBRclpXYm9pSnE2Y2h1MEgxeFIyVnFDMTYtZ0pHRQ?oc=5
- [11] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000300315
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/extreme-heat-tests-indias-record-milk-production/article71054177.ece
- [13] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/035fd44840cd4ee7acefc52fd6608c58/c.html
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260603085712OKE
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260603/2a5a9d998b994fa4b0025c8e95aa8fb3/c.html
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hormuz-shut-shipping-services-through-other-routes-to-west-asia-up-2x/articleshow/131473482.cms
- [17] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606030657498CS
- [19] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/wmos-el-nino-alert-raises-odds-of-severe-impact-on-monsoon/articleshow/131471238.cms
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260603000200315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/2/us-targets-brazil-with-new-tariffs-over-trade-practices?traffic_source=rss
2026-05-30
2026-05-30
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：新事件，无历史延续；印度季风预测下调但未引发极端反应。
- 印度气象局将季风降雨预测下调至长期均值的90%，降雨不足概率达60%。
- 厄尔尼诺现象为主要影响因素。
关键事件
- 印度气象局下调季风预测，降雨不足概率60%（Times of India）
关注 / 展望
季风不足可能影响印度农业产出和食品通胀，需关注后续降雨数据。
关联路径
季风不足 / 农业减产 / 食品价格上行风险
来源
Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top) / Nikkei Asia / Times of India / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260530084204GYK
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/netanyahu-says-israeli-forces-have-crossed-lebanons-litani-river?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxQWV85YWg3MmVfOVloemFFRkN2eWhycXYtV0huendnME9XZ3ltRnJ1SXBNakVDcGo4OVFoZVNVbU9Fc19GTUNYTHRMeTA0Q3RicHB2TUZBRUJMV2JDb215QmM0LWlrMTRNeEN5dm1fSEE2RzZxdWpEUW9WMFZGNG83VVAxVGtrZjNVVFkxaHRVXzl3a2hiVmZuSUp5X0JaN0E1TWtxSjRMUVZNQlg3QUxlOUJSYzR3amM?oc=5
- [4] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000251315
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-to-lift-naval-blockade-of-ports-trump-says/live-77338255?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r2d40r91qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/us-rate-hike-on-the-table-as-inflation-persists-chicago-fed-chief
- [8] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260529/c8f2bd52fad54a01b6872e804fc07aec/c.html
- [9] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-will-accept-only-iran-deal-that-meets-his-red-lines-white-house-official-after-2-hour-meeting/articleshow/131402044.cms
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/middleeast/irans-hard-liners-deal.html
- [11] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-droht-armenien-bei-weiterer-eu-annaeherung-a-25ac0ff2-909d-41b8-8974-7f55c7ff074e
- [12] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/inflation-rises-isnt-hotter-expected-134746577.html
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530042120YEX
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/5/29/trump-heads-into-situation-room-to-potentially-finalise-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260530000403PDN
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxNV3dWOVpUZldOcWpPTGI4aHlVUkNXdmVnaHN5TmVrNmhPTmNWWDhrM1RiZmtvTzQ3NGZnSklsUW9saWdQN0Jqb2NwTjVUOXJUS2toeFIzc3NhR0FCdXJQN3pnMVhMUHpTMW9Ub3VQc2xfVHIyS1RscDZZei1CeldDam1rbjJjZGhXUE1MS2lMN2FnMGJjMlZ5ellWdlpKWW1zZzRmSVpwZWNDUDU1VGVVdHVkUkJONklsZVdBY0NTUVIwZnQtaTRVVmVUMC1na3FQRHRv0gHTAUFVX3lxTE1ZdUg1dUdFdXpCbEx3Uk96R0hjUGs5d3RtRzdWcnNQQ0tnT1AybXcwY0piMGVYcGY4amw4M3NSZEZIc2ExeVY1azltaW14MW1IY3lZbEdwTEd1Ri1TZnBHVVR3UGFfS1FVNE1kRGVFMDN1YVUwdGc5c0MwSXlBRGl
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000253315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260530000400315
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPTlZSS3ZkeXNFYnYzNVl6N1hkYWNMM3prZ0xDaTNsaFh4SThvdlE2TG1LYjM5QmhEay1pUzNWYldwVTVmOTlCaDVQMHhDS2J3SmlBd0FjZko4M0tqbWtaSzY0TEdnQ2hIV2N3ZW1BejJhWWlQem83Z3pkNHkwbG05NEZNRUluRTA?oc=5
- [20] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/60-chance-of-deficient-monsoon-as-imd-downgrades-rain-forecast/articleshow/131398673.cms
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/29/trump-says-final-determination-to-be-made-on-possible-iran-deal?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/meeting-now-to-make-final-determination-trump-on-us-iran-draft-truce-deal-lists-conditions-for-tehran/articleshow/131394024.cms
2026-05-26
2026-05-26
进展要点
- 轨迹（消退）：智利北部6.9级地震，震源深度100千米，对铜矿生产的潜在影响有限。
- 地震发生在智利北部，震源较深，未立即报告大规模破坏（China News Service）。
关键事件
- 智利北部6.9级地震，震源深度100千米（China News Service）
关注 / 展望
关注矿区运营状态，若供电或运输受影响可能短期提振铜价。
关联路径
Chile earthquake / copper mine disruption / copper supply tightness
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / KBS World News / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News Agency / RT News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / Nikkei Asia / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / JETRO Business News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202605260849226bc
- [2] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/irankrieg-usa-greifen-ziele-im-iran-an-mitten-in-verhandlungen-zum-kriegsende-a-35074028-1cd5-4e3b-bcff-af0425d0fb4c
- [3] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=201690
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzzn4y1n8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.news.cn/world/20260525/104870725f26430aac971137b3b40e2f/c.html
- [6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/26/iran-war-live-israel-pounds-lebanon-iranian-officials-in-qatar-for-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-26/10628481.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004353315
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/640566-iranian-speedboat-attacks-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/russia-says-magnetic-mines-found-101635715.html
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFA4MHBZb25FbHBBa1QzNEI4T2tjaDdiYVZjWUJIb3huNHBYbGxIbldJNjlWWE5Ca3dTQ3JJNmxQTVIwdjNxVFMxZWRfWmNvSExOZ1RDZTdFTFB4Zw?oc=5
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/iran-to-open-hormuz-30-days-after-us-deal-to-end-fighting-source
- [13] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/trump-says-iran-deal-must-be-great-and-meaningful-or-us-will-walk-away/article71022492.ece
- [14] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-emerges-as-gulfs-key-trade-route-as-iran-war-blocks-hormuz-strait/articleshow/131310656.cms
- [15] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/c4e3ed15d098de0a.html
- [16] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526080022bhb
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260526062910IBB
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNcWFSYzlYSDhhR3BSOHB1Q0RXalE0ZHpHVGhXTGlJYUp2M0hjTGszVlN1Q2p3LTVPSi1DSjZpTVYtQW9lM291OFk4N0hRYkI0X0RGRjdtcUVRcjZyM2NiX2loQmlYcEJlZWRRdE9ubGJTbV96VUk1U0FCaldGcUc0RjdGTdIBiAFBVV95cUxObHVDM01oY0VteWt1OVdlYUVPcDR3VHlWOHdSZEVNUUNMblpLb012WFpRVFlNNU82MTlEN2pmOEZBVElrT3lERXliS3Nrc29HNmFLSXdYRHYyMTlTc0ZpVWV5eDV5bTlUelJnM18zYTlZTWw1N096WHJUQmtMemhrXzhweXV3LTVi?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOaEYzalpGWXR1T2dtLXZLUTkzOXVnSEZtNlJzc2R6S3NqaEJ0TTNuc2VRd09KcC1wYldfV0tLTW1zMzF3Rm1ULW1LejBIMGRIMXZIVFIxalAwd0t5S1dIaFZ4T2d1Wi1UVWt1RTlYaWd3MURFZXQxOGxONnF0TVVfYldsWkJENUYtZFdmVGpabXFta1VhN0Zla1pZY0hQaU9Vc3h5LUk4OTk0Z3NRaU5vZ2VUc3NVU2RlVEZoWQ?oc=5
- [20] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260525004351315
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/25/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/05/d0a6a02b71d729e1.html
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-26/10628476.shtml