专题时间线
Supply Disruption
轨迹（升级）：乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设施持续袭击，导致俄约40%炼油产能离线，莫斯科及北部地区加油站开始实施燃油配给，全国性短缺蔓延。 关键事件：莫斯科及俄北部加油站实施燃油配给（Google News - World） 关注：若乌克兰继续打击俄炼厂，俄罗斯国内燃油危机可能加剧，并进一步推高国际成品油裂解价差，关注俄方是否反制。
信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-06-04
来源数
25
大陆
3
港澳台
0
海外
22
官媒/官方
4
非官媒
21
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
23
中文覆盖
3
英文覆盖
15
参考链接
75
国家 / 地区: China / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / UK / USA
来源样本
Xinhua World · 大陆 / 官方China News Service · 大陆 / 官方Xinhua Finance · 大陆 / 官方Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体Yahoo News - World · 海外 / 聚合Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体JETRO Business News · 海外 / 媒体France 24 #2 · 海外 / 媒体Global Issues News · 海外 / 媒体The New York Times · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合RT News · 海外 / 媒体
来源样本来自本期引用与配置元数据，用于追溯覆盖，不代表背书或投资建议。
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 22 个，大陆信源 3 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 15 个，中文信源 3 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: ZC动力煤 / EC欧线集运 / SC原油
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 27 / 待复核 3 / 已复核 6
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SC 3y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 6m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-06-04
2026-06-04
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设施持续袭击，导致俄约40%炼油产能离线，莫斯科及北部地区加油站开始实施燃油配给，全国性短缺蔓延。
关键事件
- 莫斯科及俄北部加油站实施燃油配给（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
若乌克兰继续打击俄炼厂，俄罗斯国内燃油危机可能加剧，并进一步推高国际成品油裂解价差，关注俄方是否反制。
关联路径
乌克兰袭击炼厂 / 俄罗斯炼能下降 / 成品油供应短缺
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / France 24 #2 / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Google News - World / RT News / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606040527043L3
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz-in-gulf-flare-up-163028785.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-and-bahrain-attacked-as-iran-launches-missile-and-drone-barrage?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260604/5911e51f489f4127b93e816da4c3cb94/c.html
- [5] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/cd5a74e6bbd7f913.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260603-iran-says-no-tangible-progress-in-war-talks-trump-says-deal-close
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/03/43198
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-04/10633942.shtml
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/us/house-russia-ukraine-sanctions-aid.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPSlpZSWlVS1B3RlpKRm5DcjZDc0pKMnBLM2x6NG9UWlM5THVxaksyZ2o2MDRtQjFXcEl5SE1aaTNrZHhiNF9ibUp2WHItTkZmSVFDZW9USDMtTTIxREJoMXZhNVNMdFhocU9RT2ZYd3gtSlJ6RjRmc3Fway1nWDVxNlZNelBMYnlBcUVQaEtGc3pKNlh4SmU3WkM2VzBHRk5DdVJjNmg5TGZaZXZYLUZkVzZqWGIyQ28?oc=5
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640941-gulf-airport-devastate-patriot-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-admin-proposes-broad-new-tariffs-top-trading/story?id=133552819
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260603/0c63de9689184545b5a5ad992cdd15de/c.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-and-russia-draw-closer-amid-opec-upheaval/a-77387950?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/us-moots-12-5-tariff-on-india-53-others-over-forced-labour/articleshow/131494315.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-releases-cctv-footage-of-deadly-iranian-strike-on-airport?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-labels-iran-attack-heinous?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604055025eGh
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604054336IBQ
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPcV9YT3A5dzhhTjBwYTZtM0tQc1JGZkhSZl9JY0FFSWV3eUtxNU1oMHNHQ3piS1VxTnJMb1hwOWJDZ2gwc05BdHFJX1k4ZTI2OE5qUzhoRmJYVWZBZ3lpV3FhVnA2S0s2WklWa3dGczFnRXFmRFpGbUxFTTNlMjFuMlBSM0ljM3hNX21TdzI1SHRxUzJRUVEyM2RSQ054ZERXdWJCc25NXzU1VFpjWmpHSXpoRDZldlk?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQZWtvZ043SmhSOWZFck94VFJscTREUzlfYzZWQUVnWGdDM0V4ZzVXeTZJOUk4ZzN1RWZRWWY1cm5JWkkzNC1lUVM4WEtDMWQ2aHVYNXI3Tk1nZDlGcTdvUHJ0alBGM01kT0xhQXoyNnpLM3loQllhQjJ3N0FaSzFEeg?oc=5
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-denies-impasse-in-iran-talks-after-fresh-strikes-on-gulf-countries
- [24] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260603-iranian-revolutionary-guards-claim-attacks-on-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/briefing/state-of-iran-war.html
- [26] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/f36904fae0a30fb3.html
2026-05-25
2026-05-25
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：霍尔木兹航运中断致约1500-2000艘船舶被困，重开时间不确定，但和谈进展提供缓释预期。
- 霍尔木兹海峡重开前景仍不明，大量船舶积压待清理。（NYT）
关键事件
- 约1500-2000艘船舶困于波斯湾 - NYT
- 重开时间取决于美伊协议进度 - NYT
关注 / 展望
海峡通航恢复需清理水雷及协调通行方案，预计至少1-2个月才能恢复正常。短期能源运输瓶颈难解，油轮运费维持高位。
关联路径
船舶积压 / 油轮运力冻结 / 运费上涨 / 能源到岸成本上升
重开推迟 / 供应链瓶颈持续 / 新兴经济体进口压力增大
来源
Xinhua World / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News Agency / Times of India / RT News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/global-oil-inventories-to-fall-below-100-days-of-demand-on-hormuz-blockade
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran.html
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809m7g29r7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525084834QL4
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260524-guerre-au-moyen-orient-que-contient-le-protocole-d-accord-entre-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-et-l-iran
- [6] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1068257/as-klaim-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQSjd6U1BqRl9fdVNBbmdTc292V29zNW04b0RWQXBZRXZqeFlnYm1DMDlYeGRUTFVBWEhWbTFUYTVRcHJWNWxvMUoyc0RNcldDZDJCalpJMW5vUkZKTnNGT3ZEdFpWcmRHcFdWYkdFRF9NRHhUb3B6QzQ2b2s2aFRKeEln?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp0040x7po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-us-ends-russia-oil-waiver-implications-for-india/article71018329.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-prepares-military-strikes-against-221519788.html
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580861/as-klaim-ada-kemajuan-soal-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/mission-unaccomplished-trumps-gulf-gamble-runs-aground-as-iran-survives-american-assault/articleshow/131293549.cms
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/640508-us-iran-deal-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260524/fa65dd01d6d84218bb140866f8c9620f/c.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran-deal.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260524-time-is-on-our-side-trump-tempers-expectations-of-a-peace-deal-with-iran
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/world/middleeast/senate-republicans-iran-deal-trump.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260525034445NmC
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBnMHpHTWRhQmlPMGIzMVV4NHYxYU9NMDlabVZvM050d3Fxc3E1ZkpuM0xFbS1tVUI2bW5iSjFRd2o3YmQ4M1NqcWw5VnI1Tjh3MHNlZ0duamNTTkE2TlpvS19UZEZLTWhwd2VIQUZVMDBqNnU1YXBDbtIBfkFVX3lxTE9WOWxkT3BiVzFPVlRQQkpTQlljMkZQNU5TSVRfLXF4cWVFRXRlbzhlSHpkcHczcHgydjB6N3RvMW16b3NsVHl3bEw3UC03QjBUdHlZOWRyaWV3MWRKYjNmTXg2bWpZSlJ3Q0hRVjRJaEU5MTFHOUdUWGlMVWxiQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580831/trump-as-pertahankan-blokade-laut-sampai-iran-teken-kesepakatan-damai
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPM2xoYUpMYWxuUzQ4aWQzaTF4d1RVYjBGUHVfMnhldHpQcXRTVFpvWk1uS2NSRWhHeUFocWxicExGYVhpcG9qOUZ2MmhMU2FCLVJfMkl3WE1xb0ozSWZEMW5HUS1FTWhwUTJ0eDZMT0xNRUVIc1pLSWRsZTNfeXZ2Q2tlOVktQlhFVW96czhxZ3BPTzZzVWtsNC1SN2MwWWR5cDFOWlIwZG1NSWRFdzVqZUhndUYzRzNjLU9Zam5R0gHDAUFVX3lxTE9HdUVDc04tX2pUWl92M3U4Z295cW5maThrNktoN0ZVaFpjN2prRWRtWUZvRjhFXy1CNWVzR2k1bHBKZThTZlJSbVR2VmVwQWd6UWZiSldjaTFfLWNULUFraElGdmFZMDAzb0J2d2xEdUdtaDYyUE0zQU00NVNvU1JQQU5BZmZFMk1ERkd1Z180eV8zMm5
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-turnaround-open-the-straits-close-the-war/articleshow/131293243.cms
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525090851EoQ
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/640524-trump-iran-deal-losers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-23
2026-05-23
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：虽然中国煤矿事故造成伤亡，但属局部事件，对全球供应链影响有限。
- 中国山西长治煤矿事故致4死90人被困，救援进行中。（Sky News, ABC News）
关键事件
- 山西煤矿事故致4死90人被困（ABC News）
关注 / 展望
该事故可能推升国内煤炭短期价格，但整体影响可控，需关注后续监管收紧是否影响产量。
关联路径
煤矿事故 / 供应中断预期 / 煤炭价格短期支撑
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Fed / Google News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Times of India / Sky News / BBC News (Business) / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-23/10626977.shtml
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/irans-intensified-closure-strait-hormuz-150534298.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260522-rubio-urges-more-support-from-nato-allies-help-end-iran-war-mediation-talks-begin
- [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNenRXUWhkWi05T2JSVHQ4WTY0TTVLcmlWSXZ0cENoNEpTamhHcHRRZG1BVzJ2ZFJvYmhLTXEwZUhtdmJTN01CdDBwUnZqT1lMaGhrOUp2QncyZjhsTzhNWjJoMGVPaW5lYkRFQ1ZvSVVFLTdjRHJtZlFsbHd1SFM3N2JvekxPOGNJZHZURmFaNUNCeFU?oc=5
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260523/4f110ca2c5c849be9f9bb086feab17ef/c.html
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kevin-warsh-neuer-fed-chef-im-weissen-haus-vereidigt-a-268dae4a-6f36-452f-9e07-f8f1c3f9056c
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/gas-prices-highest-level-4-years-ahead-memorial/story?id=133219781
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523003218bkx
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640454-trump-plans-change-wedding-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-steps-up-dollar-sales-to-53-billion-to-defend-rupee-in-fy26/articleshow/131270439.cms
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/china-four-killed-and-90-trapped-following-coal-mine-accident-13547200
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz311dq3ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/world/middleeast/iran-ceasefire-us-qatar-pakistan.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260522-choc-p%C3%A9trolier-vs-d%C3%A9ficit-l-impossible-%C3%A9quation
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/economic-confidence-plummets-in-us-amid-iran-war-poll-shows?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523085743BMb
- [19] https://abcnews.com/International/4-dead-90-trapped-coal-mine-accident-northern/story?id=133238116
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523084301zk1
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260522-guerre-au-moyen-orient-un-m%C3%A9diateur-pakistanais-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-des-n%C3%A9gociations-dans-l-impasse
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOdVlHX1dTNEdZNEY1N3VuRDVvR051UFpTem9kNlloY1NiOW9yRVBCUWtUUUJXcW12VWFWbGs5YzlyV2dWWE9FRkIwblhuZFBqaVhKNzhIVnk5R2VSaTRZZ2FjTXRaaWp5UEdhTGhEN3RvOVoyQ29HR29UeDJTWXk2MU83MDB4UQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/pakistans-army-chief-in-iran-as-uss-rubio-says-slight-progress-in-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxQQThBMGFCbXlrNFNIbHFpT2ZvTWNFMDFvMVI4ekMxTTBiZURGczRvR29KMWFiZVFmUWoxQ013ajNkZlNUYk9jYURmcHN1bnpqM0JheW9GQ3pubTYyWWtDdW1HWEFKYzE5bE5PMG9yZTJDd20tTVNQNXp4RlRXLU0yVVJodVo3VmRTVTN3TkhjWUxicnRqZVlSNVU1WDZhVFVwYzZSaGN0dnBjbDRSSmhRam9sb0VscWh5anljZXR3YVZYVHZmcXVyMw?oc=5
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/warning-shot-from-iran-uae-nuclear-plant-attack-from-iraq-sparks-fears-of-wider-gulf-war-as-tehrans-proxies-step-in/articleshow/131264706.cms