专题时间线
Supply Disruption
轨迹（Escalating）：继哈萨克斯坦因码头暂停作业下调原油产量后，无人机袭击导致出口中断，能源市场供给压力持续。；无人机袭击导致哈萨克斯坦石油出口中断，能源市场承压（Al Jazeera Middle East）。 关键事件：无人机袭击中断哈萨克石油出口（Al Jazeera Middle East）；胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美石油设施（UNN） 关注：哈萨克斯坦出口恢复时间不明，同时霍尔木兹海峡风险未消，全球原油供应可能进一步收紧。
信源画像
来源覆盖
最近更新: 2026-07-27
来源数
74
大陆
5
港澳台
0
海外
69
官媒/官方
6
非官媒
68
聚合源
2
优先原始报道
72
中文覆盖
5
英文覆盖
39
参考链接
200
国家 / 地区: Brazil / Canada / China / EU / France / Germany / India / Indonesia / International / Iran / Israel / Japan / Qatar / Russia / South Korea / Turkey / UK / USA / Ukraine
来源样本
China News Service · 大陆 / 官方Yonhap News TV · 海外 / 媒体Al Jazeera Middle East · 海外 / 媒体Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics · 海外 / 媒体POLITICO Europe · 海外 / 媒体Nikkei Asia · 海外 / 商业媒体Valor Econômico Politics · 海外 / 媒体Google News - World · 海外 / 聚合The Hindu · 海外 / 媒体RT News · 海外 / 媒体O Globo Politics · 海外 / 媒体Yahoo News - World · 海外 / 聚合
来源样本来自本期引用与配置元数据，用于追溯覆盖，不代表背书或投资建议。
覆盖差异
覆盖差异
仅基于来源结构生成的规则观察，不包含立场判断。
覆盖以海外信源为主
提示当前窗口内海外信源 69 个，大陆信源 5 个。
英文覆盖多于中文覆盖
提示当前窗口内英文信源 39 个，中文信源 5 个。
研究投影
研究投影
关联品种: ZC动力煤 / EC欧线集运 / SC原油 / CU沪铜 / PG液化石油气 / AU黄金
跟踪状态: 跟踪中 36 / 待复核 18 / 已复核 18
生命周期建议: 继续跟踪 · 近期报道仍密集
最近检查点
- SC 2y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 1y · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 6m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
- SC 3m · 跟踪中 · scheduled_long_horizon_checkpoint
2026-07-27
2026-07-27
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：继哈萨克斯坦因码头暂停作业下调原油产量后，无人机袭击导致出口中断，能源市场供给压力持续。
- 无人机袭击导致哈萨克斯坦石油出口中断，能源市场承压（Al Jazeera Middle East）。
- 胡塞武装袭击沙特石油设施，沙特阿美在吉赞和延布的目标遭袭（UNN）。
关键事件
- 无人机袭击中断哈萨克石油出口（Al Jazeera Middle East）
- 胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美石油设施（UNN）
关注 / 展望
哈萨克斯坦出口恢复时间不明，同时霍尔木兹海峡风险未消，全球原油供应可能进一步收紧。
关联路径
无人机袭击 / 哈萨克斯坦出口中断 / 全球原油供给收紧
来源
China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / POLITICO Europe / Nikkei Asia / Valor Econômico Politics / Google News - World / The Hindu / RT News / O Globo Politics / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727064751ZaW
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/us-and-iran-hit-pause-on-strikes-for-second-day?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-nakazav-pryzupynyty-udary-ssha-po-iranu-dlia-dyplomatychnykh-perehovoriv
- [4] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/25/iran-war-gulf-alliance-01012083?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [5] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/trading-asia/boj-early-rate-rise-bets-increase-as-yen-reaches-multidecade-low
- [6] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-e-ira-estendem-pausa-nos-ataques-enquanto-oma-realiza-negociacoes-sobre-ormuz.ghtml
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE4yUGQyOU5oLVZvX0t4bWI3dVo0R3ZaSHNoS0t1SEl0bjZHLVNTejIyeEVXMnZraDhBUE5kanFxYkU0ZHR2c2JEVzc0ZUR0MV9GMkg0U0IyRHYxdEw1Wi1FYUkzMnU4c3N4T3JwbUNB?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-halts-retaliatory-strikes-after-lull-in-us-attacks/article71270262.ece
- [9] https://www.rt.com/news/643490-iran-us-backers-targets/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [10] https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/26/eua-suspendem-bombardeios-ao-ira-que-tambem-freia-ataques.ghtml
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666977.shtml
- [12] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sen-kennedy-says-trump-likes-184524762.html
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/khusyty-atakuvaly-naftovi-obiekty-saudivskoi-aravii-ssha-vpershe-za-dva-tyzhni-ne-zavdaly-udariv-po-iranu
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/what-lies-ahead-for-iran-as-scope-of-us-war-grows-beyond-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOcDY4MVdNa1ZJUDFsVkNzRDR6Y0oyZjQ0VW1wQVdaVXUxREJRejlSbC1NVTd3SGtxZkM3d1RpQ1VTbWFTRmJsQ1dZclhJQjU3R09NTjRsOWFDUkVjd1lRTVZaRHBfSlBtUEMybjVsVFhORVdzNnBNSFYxbnlDb2RwUzEtOHF5VDB6Qk9Nb1gwWV95eE4zOGcwbk90eFB2ZUc2WmJ4NEhPNExZUVVXWDJBNTlNTQ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFBzS0FfSkotRklRNDVHeW45TEFEM21nODZqUnctRkVUbm90dzR1eDk0M2RsWlV3SU5NRU9RNlYtdXNUbXJfZVJLVHNqRUkzRWF1NGUzTG5hVmxRVEpHaldlVzduTDhVcHNMcWtBdjhLakM1Zw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/freeze-the-conflict-drones-slow-kazakh-oil-flow-amid-russia-ukraine-war?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.rt.com/news/643489-pentagon-eyeing-megaraid-iran-uranium/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260726215511eLk
- [20] https://unn.ua/news/radbez-oon-zberetsia-na-ekstrene-zasidannia-cherez-obstrily-suden-u-chornomu-mori-na-zapyt-ukrainy
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-27/10666973.shtml
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260727053411Zdg
2026-07-26
2026-07-26
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：黑海石油码头因乌克兰无人机袭击暂停装运，叠加此前谷物走廊受压，供应风险集聚。
- 俄罗斯新罗西斯克Sheskharis码头自7月22日起暂停原油装载，日均影响约65万桶出口。
- 乌克兰无人机还袭击了西西伯利亚大型炼油厂，距边境2000公里，显示打击纵深持续扩大。
关键事件
- 乌克兰无人机袭击致俄黑海石油码头暂停装运（Kyiv Post）
关注 / 展望
黑海原油出口受阻短期内难以恢复，CPC管道风险成为焦点，油价获额外支撑。
关联路径
无人机袭击 / 黑海码头停摆 / 原油供给缺口 / 油价上行
来源
China News Service / Kyiv Post / Yahoo News - World / A News / Verslo žinios / Index.hu - Külföld / Mehr News Agency / Kyiv Independent / Google News - World / ECNS Politics News / USTR Press Releases / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / El Mundo - International News / El País Internacional
参考链接
- [1] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81039
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/oil-price-surge-war-iran-225258637.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-26/10666595.shtml
- [4] https://www.anews.com.tr/americas/2026/07/25/trump-says-full-scale-war-with-iran-if-we-dont-get-100-of-what-we-want-report
- [5] https://www.vz.lt/logistika-ir-transportas/2026/07/24/ft-saudo-arabijos-kroviniams-raudonojoje-juroje-ribojamas-karo-rizikos-draudimas-587916
- [6] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/25/usa-iran-jemen-huszik-kozel-kelet-hajozas-voros-tenger-blokad-szaud-arabia-koolaj
- [7] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246494/IRGC-conducts-fresh-attacks-on-US-bases-in-Kuwait-Bahrain
- [8] https://kyivindependent.com/russias-escalating-port-attacks-choke-ukraines-grain-exports-as-industry-nears-crisis
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxOOVpNZ2psN29sT085Yy0tT0xweWpLcTBRbUxaVlRGS1hJVFRHc3R0QjdlSWEybjlnNmtKYXM4WjQxaG9neGFqZkNrUEthVHJsQ2VEM0VEX2hJc2tIcHNZT0tEV3JQRUtrbk9YT0dGOGo0T0VVbUVkOVZaS29hWHRBcUw0QkJ4VjlSc2h6czhXWGRkT2xiMkJJUlBkcENSX0VjQndrSjJlT25vS2FFSVA4WE5B?oc=5
- [10] http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2026-07-24/detail-ihfhqwkz8170671.shtml
- [11] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2026/july/fact-sheet-ustr-section-301-action-response-failure-60-economies-ban-imports-produced-forced-labor
- [12] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/saudi-arabien-jemen-angriffe-100.html
- [13] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/07/25/droits-de-douane-les-nouvelles-menaces-de-trump-douchent-les-espoirs-d-apaisement-des-europeens_6732384_3234.html
- [14] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/25/6a64b258e9cf4a923a8b4598.html
- [15] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/las-claves-de-los-nuevos-aranceles-de-trump-que-suponen-a-que-paises-afectan-y-cuando-entran-en-vigor.html
- [16] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/26/russia-says-its-ban-on-gasoline-exports-will-be-extended-to-end-of-2026
- [17] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/donald-trump-egyesult-allamok-europai-unio-vizsgalat-vamok
- [18] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/07/24/fekete-tenger-roman-part-tartalyhajo-tamadas-orosz-ukran-haboru
- [19] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246487/IRGC-targets-large-US-ammunition-depot-in-Kuwait-with-drones
- [20] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81066
- [21] https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81042
- [22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/trump-vows-to-punish-iran-for-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-oil-surges-over-100-133244120.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE0wSWJENDJQQ2lraVM1bFRtRkZZWk84QTQ0VGVzWFo1NDJOdmNyLVF4LTBLd0g2VkRPV094NU5rSktRQWwtYmdSYmxZeXBOSXFDczNpWU1qNHZ3dk96YjdEbUFRT2h3bUFm?oc=5
- [24] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-steelworkers-manufacturers-and-farmers-praise-president-trumps-tariff-action-combat-forced
- [25] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ustr-takes-action-forced-labor-section-301-investigations
- [26] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/25/l-arabie-saoudite-et-les-houthistes-au-seuil-d-une-nouvelle-guerre-au-moyen-orient_6731930_3210.html
- [27] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-07-24/trump-impone-un-sistema-comercial-caotico-en-su-tercera-ronda-arancelaria.html
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3AFBVV95cUxOWV84eEVlNkpwN2YyRjV4SFpPd05QQk5pVjY1dFB3NUJNUHFYQ2JNWjN0ZUw1blJldTJYelJJR3VfTFRaR0hNemljRnpMLTVTeE0wejZSNWt5WG9iRU1rMll5NlZLLWd3aW1faTViRlVTVU1GRzRWeUNFR29uMDU0czdONkNMcXVWT2lkN2hWLXdZVXNkQlVmTlJFNGdLRkp2ZDQ5Tko1VWh6TjNxOTMzNmNWenNISzYtLWtPR0kzX3hVek0xS3NSQ1N6QVhxUHpNc2xGNUduak5aNHVi?oc=5
2026-07-20
2026-07-20
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：里海管道CPC因油轮遭无人机袭击暂停原油装载，直接影响哈萨克斯坦出口，加剧全球原油供应紧张。
- CPC暂停装载叠加霍尔木兹海峡风险，多重供应中断同时出现，历史上较为罕见。
- 无人机袭击事件表明冲突外溢至里海地区，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦利益受损。
关键事件
- CPC因油轮遭无人机袭击暂停原油装载（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
CPC恢复装载时间未知，若持续一周以上，可能推动布伦特原油进一步上涨。需关注俄罗斯是否介入调解或报复，进一步影响黑海和里海航运。
关联路径
CPC oil loadings suspended / Crude supply tightens / Global oil prices up / European gasoil & gasoline margins rise
来源
China News Service / POLITICO Europe / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / Yahoo News - World / USTR Press Releases / BBC News (Top) / Google News - World / Global News / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / The Korea Times
参考链接
- [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/us-iran-strikes-war-peace-deal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [2] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662645.shtml
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/19/business/oil-prices-stocks-gas.html
- [4] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260719-middle-east-live-us-launches-strikes-to-punish-iran-after-troops-killed
- [5] https://unn.ua/news/cherez-ormuzku-protoku-prokhodyt-blyzko-dvokh-tretyn-dovoiennoho-obsiahu-perevezen-ministr-enerhetyky-ssha
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-says-completed-latest-023955394.html
- [7] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-loggers-and-industry-leaders-applaud-president-trumps-bold-tariff-action-regarding
- [8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk417jp83po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE9tZERHLXprM1drb05FU0RWV19EeDluM2ZSRkFEb09pNDdOZzlwc3R4b2VSdFNmdHlfWUlhLTN6X3VpQ0ZCTndfd2tDQXByamdpbElxMW1VUmtZRzlGdHV5WVE2aG5mT0x5QU81S1FXNmc?oc=5
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11971735/us-airstrikes-iran-war-continues
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/irans-shadow-fleet-rushed-6-billion-of-oil-to-china-during-brief-us-truce-report/articleshow/132495532.cms
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/19/kuwaiti-power-plant-ablaze-as-iran-hits-us-gulf-allies?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260719/us-strikes-irans-revolutionary-guard-over-attack-that-killed-troops-in-jordan?utm_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-iran-blown-past-red-093545840.html
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/escalation-fears-mount-as-us-hits-bridges-and-iran-strikes-desalination-plant-150747882.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxNQjFsc1o5b28zLW5TaGc1eWFHWmJfLUpxOGZnOGRRV1BYNm9SYWlKZU9qN3ozSG42cmRBU2p1MHJQN1JvbEpyd1JOc2pCMmNqY0pUbWJMdDhyQVRUYzFSNjBQakhXRl83VkhoX0VuSm1PeDRVRlhIRENBWG9CLW52MVBxQWhaTnllMllDUXZuQmwzTnRhYU5hMmxMSXI1bWlkeGp3dHFweFRGRi1fTjk1UXotT3k0NGdKM2VEc2FIanNuelIzaTF0QWRB?oc=5
- [17] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-says-iran-missile-towards-jordan-s-aqaba-intercepted
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNVkZ5QXo1N2hOeXZuODFkalM2aVg4bjNlX0p4UHRzM0FLb3VBbzBKeFRGeVZCdENGMEFKRndFXzdTaDFTazgtczZnZDRBZWRHQjdHTjg3MHF1MjF3blhaM0pINlhCeGxPZkJDVTBYTkkyY0FPQjFpZEp0N3RzRFNSMkJBMFRxV3NCcmZpc256X0I1MlRUelMtc0g1RdIBoAFBVV95cUxQbkZxaDI5R0M0elRWcEpiTjhNeXJnQ0NJSW9VNFhTQ2MydlF1M2c0azUxbThYcksyZDMxYkZhcG40VGwySDh1VXdoS29sT1RNdEpLSnZfMTA3QmpweW1NYlhRVmVieWQ2YU1zbzl6TWJ5d0k1S3VHLTBRYUdzMkdyYTdkdDJOWFlWM1VHcVdmSFF6NmlLXzFCb0FwVXJhTEdD?oc=5
- [19] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/19/chris-wright-strait-hormuz-iran-01004359?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
- [20] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662633.shtml
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-19/10662632.shtml
- [22] https://www.france24.com/en/kuwait-bahrain-respond-to-iranian-attacks-amid-growing-escalation
2026-07-18
2026-07-18
进展要点
- 轨迹（加剧）：波斯湾航运量降至一个多月最低，索马里海盗在亚丁湾劫持油轮，多条供应链同时承压。
- 波斯湾航运几近停摆：伊朗战争持续扰乱油轮通行，波斯湾航运量创一个月新低。
- 亚丁湾海盗潮再起：疑似索马里海盗在也门附近劫持油轮Astana，增加红海-印度洋航线风险。
关键事件
- 波斯湾航运近停摆，油价升至一个月新高（The New York Times）
- 索马里海盗疑似劫持油轮，亚丁湾海盗潮再起（Al Jazeera Middle East）
关注 / 展望
霍尔木兹海峡与亚丁湾两条关键航道同时面临威胁，全球油轮运力紧张，船东可能快速推高运价。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡封锁 / 波斯湾原油出口受阻 / 全球原油供应缺口扩大
亚丁湾海盗劫持 / 油轮绕行好望角 / 运输时间与成本上升
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / The New York Times / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #3 / ABC News / ANTARA News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOU2lCWUtlZ2xEN3lYTlRkYVdOUkR1TzM4UENrMmVYUS1wVTJDMG9CRjFSMU5DRUVpVFZidDNuMHNRMjR6c0dua3hZUzhia01RN0tDU0VGVWYtWWlzVTZZMWlPcmtTa3JwX05zSW54Zl9zakJRd0ZBZTZKQTM4Q3lMYkxJajJ2akE4RW5BdzFfdDJGRU0xSUhnR19PNElLLW9ENjZpMEI0bnlmaVBwSk5obWRWS3FSZElxblVGaWUyNGc4UQ?oc=5
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/iranian-forces-missiles-and-drones-fired-at-us-targets-in-gulf-states?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/business/strait-hormuz-iran-oil-prices.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-18/10661819.shtml
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260718/fece6c9835bd4a85a767e238b4052709/c.html
- [6] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-curbs-endanger-050616544.html
- [7] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260717-frappes-am%C3%A9ricaines-iran-infrastructures-civiles-prises-pour-cible-kowe%C3%AFt-qatar
- [8] https://abcnews.com/video/134842971
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5654716/iran-gempur-fasilitas-militer-as-di-oman-suriah-yordania
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxOdklMSnhYQmNTWnBFZ3JGTkRkckE1RTg1QVBpd3hWb291ZGsxSGNqSlF2VGtxWWtIdWtzY2VGUDZ1eFBxN0RZb0huWFZ3U2FoaWtBVTZ1MmQtWFZGOVFncW1nVW9uaGhfd1lZZXlVUmcyZVdFektMajJSTVhXYk50a0pEbFI1RFBPQ3Y00gGQAUFVX3lxTE1xSEFicjl2X29zZ1IxQ1NONUNycjlJbDlkRTd0UWM5cjA2eU9oczE3OEg5cEVzcEd5ZTlveEV5aVZ4MjB5c0hqVW9SaklKLTJrMEpSMHlPRWtHMDR6YUFPalg5el9ISTM3SmRpSW1XbW04eFBGS1JZXzBQVE1jVlVvRFd5OWdSVU0yMVZDeWFlSA?oc=5
- [11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/us-launches-seventh-straight-night-of-strikes-on-iran?traffic_source=rss
- [12] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPc2ZkclBjdExUQmlrZURuWWltMFBvUmFEN3VVSkZDT0Y0ckZUZXRCU2pFV2NKeWUtek5IQ3Z5dUVkQzFOSHczUFVDT19fc0FBTUZWNGVRZUJVY216Rk05RkwyVklqTXlxTzZVczIyYjZINlRTZVpmVmFyRkVzcHpfallaeDRWR2tNeVVvdDZBYkttRjFUNHI00gGcAUFVX3lxTFBtUFFBeloxLXJKUXdIWkJTSHBoWERCNkV3WlN4OWFuaWIxQWJlWnBjcVYyUng0VDdkc21rMk90czUzdnd2ekJEOVUwbWFTLU9ja25LTDRteEJpaXhXVnVHTWFFZXlLNWlvODRIRUxlYW0zcWFwSzBxSWJSSUFYQnFQSFRKMy1kN1JTZ09GcE1WRnZlczV5ZVlxd2FweQ?oc=5
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/suspected-somali-pirates-seize-tanker-near-yemen-amid-wave-of-hijackings?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260717-civilian-infrastructure-hit-as-us-and-iran-escalate-attacks-across-the-middle-east
- [15] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260717-attaques-iraniennes-au-qatar-des-frappes-pour-punir-l-arm%C3%A9e-am%C3%A9ricaine
- [16] https://abcnews.com/International/iran-hit-3-bases-hosting-us-assets-latest/story?id=134815868
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNV19JQjNsbG9UTjhwaFJDdU9waGppMDRfenJsUmJWNFczUERHV0lIMFR1Z28zalN3UzVlaUx6dHVCc0lBU1g4Y1hic19NLWc0UkFLSUxFdksxV09GM0R5QlhON252RHFwb3B5MVNlaUJoX0pPNFFtbUpPVUg2d20tYjV4MGlvSnNwc0Nib01jMGg?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPVEI2eGZFYnBWb2RZWU4yZERtYmVSMVdLeVk0UzJWOVp2bFRiVHFRQlpMaGwzQy15b1JsZlpfbU1ZRC0wNUZudldSdlRocWtueC1xekxieTZQQXdBMFY4Z1B1ZHlwWGFPaHdkM2FxaFhQekxrWVQ0WHJFdnhQZE4tTEkwdHFoSHhzVzV0TEtIZWFwRXNBMXFfLTlMLTFzMDY1Smc?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/17/can-the-us-and-iran-reach-a-lasting-deal-to-end-the-conflict?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPUnhZMXNZSF9WWDFpVFJJWURlcnpUbjVJR0d4RWpkMXVGd0RfVVFhN3FRQ0M4Zk5nRmo3cVd1ZmFnajNzU2xvd2ZnRWlUUmNkTTlxWThwNThQWkJubG5aVmozTFllVmdLZk5xeHNsSHV0STFkOHZnZmZGVllnMlZFS1VkMzMyUQ?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTFBQMXN4ZXNiODlXYWFTakk0MmFJZC1COWRISlM5azVsYVZXWHNqV242eVFPdFNVcUtxODlVSndoTHdrdFlld29hS3JlMzVqR0tFSFNGanE1dXhNakxoTmwtZnRTRmFoNVhsVzhSNnVGTdIBdEFVX3lxTE1SMFRwN01INEh6b1BrbVU3MkI0amVfT1ltdldYd205SGtsSVFyVGh3NDNYQU0tcEdxeGZkb0lLNUJ2czJ4QXpXZXkwOUZWSWotamU4dmFoanM3cC1zcy1iVEFONUQtYzNzWnFLMzc5cDAwSHRz?oc=5
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiaEFVX3lxTE5vUktnR1c2bm80dDNYdHBidEo0cTQzUTdSYlZvZzU3YVNVM0FaekJLazZsY3djX3dwWTNRX01sQTZfYnF6MGlhbjh3Wll6eENCSkJTRzFLZTc5dU41enNlZ0ZIb0JwX2ZZ?oc=5
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMib0FVX3lxTE1kVloyRVRzdnA0Ulk3R1AxaTNtWDMyTHdWQXlZOU8zb2hjaXZEblFnQUptai04Y3pSUlFxSURpWS0tU1hwNFdnMndjMlotMUJQUVZ2NmdOZ0t6czZXZk1YRTU0dnhMY3lEeVhlX29aUQ?oc=5
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE9CRTdoVUhnVjkxYTZVWXJCdXRnWXVSZGkyeXJiOEg0MzRzYk9JWkQtbDFPZ3BxSVZMdTVxOG92aEg4YXo1dVdMcG1QNVFVSWJtT0dCU0xFUTY4ekZTYnJzV0szUC10UTlEY1JHRlRB?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPODlwMjZYMFpNSExQbzlXYjF1UFhtMHF2aGR2ZkVZckxNSDJsdncydGtOV3ptMlBOX29HRnF6QWpfbWMxNnZ2UVVzb0ZDVjZLS1NpWlE1VG1ER2NUcm1aODBKQkVXRVRNazRVSThpVk9uSWRlcWNlOHpWdVhWT1Q4N3JmejNYdE9nNUp5LVFWYmhRa1dfcXZYMy1QQkJUSWh3cl9wcldR?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxNekpxMWZGMkpySHZVZzZCbHhBZ2JVMXJZbF9nRlI1Z2FVQ2VaQ2FpeTBVaWdMNzlGcHlLelNnNHdMR0pGdDBNaGhYemxjSmtsOFBJR2l3X1NWLU1Yb0QtX2k3RTJnVHNBVENjN2NCUkdrbUx5bFhaQ1Z2ZVJsUnBpekxHUWpBbl9BeTFlYS1DTEl2RUNHUFp6c3hvOA?oc=5
- [27] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/iraq-signs-deals-with-western-oil-firms-including-to-revive-syria-pipeline?traffic_source=rss
- [28] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOTGFTaTBuZXJJTG1kNk9VeEVfTjA0OFJmOUE2SUU5YUpiZHNQY0FPc1BHNVo3UVNVM0FJSklQd1dVejNHbnlIU1A3ME83bzZwcjZHOU43YlA0RGo2ZDJHYU9keXBJeUhVYktHZ1E3U294dVpLeGxOV3ZieTNPSGhFUkIzRVYtdE1zQzF3cGtuTkNGRXMzekdkZi05TFBWbzJwaTNLb0JmZm95bFNmeVdnZkJWQkV0S3B4SEQtUklaYXhaNXY1?oc=5
2026-07-17
2026-07-17
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：日本企业稀土采购成本同比飙升逾20%，反映地缘政治与供应链瓶颈。
- 调查覆盖多家日本稀土消费企业，成本上涨与全球供应链紧张及中美地缘竞争相关（Nikkei Asia）。
关键事件
- 日本企业稀土采购成本同比上涨超20%（Nikkei Asia）
关注 / 展望
若美伊冲突持续，关键矿产供应链风险将进一步上升，关注稀土替代来源及国防科技板块成本压力。
关联路径
稀土供应紧张 / 日本企业成本上升 / 科技 / 国防供应链风险
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / RT News / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ABC News / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.rt.com/news/643155-iran-bridges-region-price/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [2] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east-war-rekindles-as-us-and-iran-resume-strike-exchange
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMibkFVX3lxTE1RWk1Qa1dMb0Y3cjlkWWtFUFpPQzhEMnk4N0lFRmswd2t1R1F0Yi1oS1Z6TUJFQ0xpRzZPcGd3Yi1ndU5YYlk3ZjRJYkJxRVkxdmlPU2RxY052ekFOWWc5NDd3LTJLMmx5MkdmZ293?oc=5
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260716/36275ccbc12d4af1af7ebc9c9f5b77ef/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660981.shtml
- [6] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c151gdjwd10o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/us-mounts-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks-as-iran-warns-of-wider-war?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-sixth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/brazil-calls-trumps-25-tariff-unjustifiable-vows-impose-134822260
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-slams-barbaric-us-attack-after-hospital-evacuated-due-to-nearby-strike/article71231195.ece
- [11] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-warns-strait-hormuz-red-075143851.html
- [12] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/commodities/rare-earth-costs-surge-over-20-for-japanese-firms-survey-shows
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/643145-iran-and-america-new-war/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-17/10660984.shtml
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOYXFnZWtOU1NXb01HY2FxbTBsUmJqNDlaa3NORmpyZ0pYVzhSVFZkaUNYTjczY0E1YjhpR1F1OGRoT3dJNnVTMjVuUGJyamVCckJwMi1WY0hJR2NyVGQ0ZDdzbF9LMzgteGZDRGtMd0ZQV211YWF3cHpYLWdhTXZjTXVhTG1zRkRmR3Q1NVdQRWNEb2xhZU0zRTFodmM4ZXc?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPbGp6ME1URkg1Zng1YjRkYk1MRGJxd09aRHRXVmhDbVBRUlRNbmNrQjZ0akM5ZWFKbmhsWFVqakt6OWE2WU1yZWUyaDJUMVg3Y0ZiUHBWNFpaRVJfdlhIcng0bWo3dHlGV0twNjZXOEJNbzk1SUt0N3pvRDdteGR6T1pRM191QkJEZWVPTzlKLVNHb1c0UXo5R2xiTUlqS242czZOYXgzMA?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/16/how-serious-is-irans-threat-to-disrupt-shipping-in-the-red-sea?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-military-attacks-iran-for-fifth-night-running/live-77976690?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/16/what-could-a-us-ground-invasion-of-iran-look-like?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-administration-races-clock-rebuild-us-tariff-wall-134820722
- [21] https://www.france24.com/en/as-the-war-rekindles-what-options-are-left-to-the-us-and-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/07-16/10660952.shtml
- [23] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-threatens-to-block-more-vital-seaways-as-trump-orders-renewed-iran-blockade/article71224209.ece
- [24] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-tells-houthis-to-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-report/article71229802.ece
2026-07-11
2026-07-11
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：6月底普京承认燃料短缺以来，乌克兰持续打击油库，7月10日全国性危机爆发。
- 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯主要炼油厂，引发全国燃油短缺，加油站出现混乱
- 俄罗斯当局要求居民居家办公以缓解燃料压力，柴油出口已禁止
- 国际能源署下调俄罗斯石油产量预测
关键事件
- 乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂引发全国燃油短缺（Al Jazeera Middle East）
- 俄罗斯燃料危机升级，当局要求居家办公（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
俄罗斯燃料短缺短期难以缓解，柴油禁令将继续收紧全球馏分油市场，关注后续炼能修复进度。
关联路径
乌克兰袭击炼油厂 / 俄炼能下降 / 全球油品供应紧张
来源
China News Service / The New York Times / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu / Yonhap News Agency / ANTARA News Agency / France 24 #3 / RT News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/us/politics/iran-war-escalation.html
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNWU8weHNqWU10dDFxUGpMR3Z5LW0xVVVnTlNuU2ZBaWpXS0ZnbHQ4c3BENmZ2QVZMZ0VLWmIyUnU0NVM2Tkp4T0lONVM2NnF5cHluZWRxR3FkOXdsNEJoQ3I1VmV3a3hOcExFWll0Vkp2VUJKN2xpcU13US1lOEkxWE1CcEY2dWZGbUZ4TzZ3V0lYRUhLdC1CZjJNTDVJZVM2TDZpSUU0V0lQdkZn?oc=5
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/10/ukrainian-attacks-cause-chaos-at-fuel-stations-across-russia?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/top-iranian-officials-admitted-supreme-162000309.html
- [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukrainian-drones-hit-southern-russian-refineries-azov-port/article71207976.ece
- [6] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260711000300315
- [7] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644808/as-dorong-kapal-niaga-tetap-gunakan-jalur-selatan-hormuz
- [8] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260710-les-hostilit%C3%A9s-entre-l-iran-et-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-reprennent
- [9] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/07-10/10657209.shtml
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642860-iran-khamenei-death-lesson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQd3p4VkVsUUpoYmxDY0ROM2c0Qk9IVEVGWnZFZkxOdjYtNEZuVmRSMFBXNkpwSU5Ka3M2MkRrUGV1U3hRaktUTVFFdmhWZjNHeG13NHJscUVKd0hLSnlrZ2k4bWV6VklQVHppSWhLV2ZNQUJBNjhhUVBONy1DUGc5dERTbUJaeHZ2dTI5ay1HU0U3M2JxWVh6WHNLS3Naa1U0aHg5Ym1uc3RVdHM?oc=5
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/iran-shipping-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOanFsbUNrR3NoakU1cEowb1ZIa3oyWU55NTZaYll6VDJHal9KVGhGclVuUFNuNFZ3bEV5bDNFUWVyY0E3ZlE2YjFoV0V0N1pqdzFJaU13Y0RvUlBLMDBWTXpKWU8xdG5TRnFveTRjVDBvSHVqRGZZQkVGcFdHenZVNTBneEtCUQ?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/trump-says-us-has-agreed-to-continue-iran-talks-but-ceasefire-over?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ml--iran-us-105500253.html
- [16] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-senators-agreement-reached-trump-171753021.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/russian-attacks-kill-four-as-ukraine-continues-to-target-oil-infrastructure?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-has-asked-to-continue-talks-and-the-us-agreed-trump-says/article71207807.ece
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinastemporary-export-ban-on-helium-explained/article71206477.ece
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/une-semaine-dans-le-monde/20260710-reprise-des-hostilit%C3%A9s-iran-usa-sommet-de-l-otan-marine-le-pen-condamn%C3%A9e
- [21] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5644803/as-ingin-israel-tak-terlibat-serang-iran
- [22] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-10/10657255.shtml
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/07-10/10657250.shtml
2026-07-10
2026-07-10
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：霍尔木兹海峡与俄罗斯柴油双重供应冲击，全球能源紧张加剧。
- 霍尔木兹海峡油轮几近停航，袭击考验伊朗停火（Google News - World）。
- 俄罗斯萨拉托夫炼油厂因无人机袭击停产，柴油出口禁令生效（Google News - World）。
- 英国央行首席经济学家称今年可能加息（BBC News Business），但主题为供给冲击。
关键事件
- 霍尔木兹油轮几近停航，袭击考验伊朗停火（Reuters via Google News）
- 俄罗斯禁止柴油出口（CNN via Google News）
- 萨拉托夫炼油厂停产（Reuters via Google News）
关注 / 展望
关注霍尔木兹海峡是否完全关闭，以及俄罗斯柴油禁令对全球裂解价差的影响。
关联路径
海峡通行量骤降 / 原油 / LNG现货溢价 / 能源通胀上升
俄罗斯柴油禁运 + 炼厂停产 / 柴油裂解价差扩大 / 全球柴油危机
来源
China News Service / Der Spiegel International / Google News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / BBC News (Business) / BBC News (Top) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Nikkei Asia / Prime Minister of Canada - News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-faehrt-schon-wieder-fast-nichts-mehr-a-2d1d09c2-0512-461e-a4ef-deeddac13e10
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPLXg5T2JPTTAwZUtYN0Z6TDNURjVQQ0dIQkZNdHJTX3JzM3dldHg5aEdKbGtmU2tpd01IajlCMjkxX0RvaVZ4d28tR1YtbXROMUNuY1JVRDE0N3U5ZXpGNGE4czNWbWdfOTlZdUxVclRGRHRaWmVpTkJtcGhmcVJ5UnJvNjJUQlgtS2xLZVlxdk5aeUhQb0haWDVDNlBGMEYtdVk2LVQzdDVUVkxSVmJ5SWJQZFJ6Uk1iTkpJ0gHAAUFVX3lxTE9oaDRrbklIamJFU00zR3dtbFlqMWdReXV0SVFxcXRuTFk5UU5RbGEzWGxWMTlYSUtSb0JQTlZNZm9rT2t4U0YtNjRpLUN4Y3R6OVVuQkdCSjg4a0lEV2UxMnFzdlN6d1NERGU3ZWFQRGhEbW04SExnb2NxVUkwNzBWazBBakd2bGJZcFVJM3U4RGlWazAxYjd
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/how-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-led-to-latest-us-iran-cycle-of-fighting?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c932ed8nv75o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c621k5r8764o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-unleashing-attacks-iranian-official-132635907.html
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656391.shtml
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/iran-claims-us-strike-hit-near-nuclear-powerplant
- [9] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/indonesia-launches-b50-biodiesel-to-curb-fuel-imports
- [10] https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/07/09/prime-minister-canada-mark-carney-and-crown-prince-and-prime-minister
- [11] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxPYWUtOFlPYmpMTHRWUjQ5ZTNjOFRaaVNCV0Z1aWZJY2E1UkcxV0t5M1dUYjExWWljV0lEbTd2ZE9semxVZjZQXzlYQnlQWjY0dWx0YUMyTXUtWnJsa3hYUlJGY3MxSWpuQmRUNmJxU19YZU41S0l5WDBLWlY1aTZHQVROdzNIcE1GYjlfTXJka3NNbGNTV2hvRFlxRllZd1AzOHlYRVJwSUtFUURha0NtbWdtWXBxb0MwaEEwNkFpaW9sQzlfajAwSQ?oc=5
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/explosions-heard-in-iran-as-us-military-denies-involvement?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPMTluaGZLSkREMHJXUUgwVko5MXRPQ0l0cGhFUFEtZTJkT3BzTGZDdURQZElaMkpocnFkUmtmNXpVWHkzSE9CSUdPWnlHaGpqV2NNSVE5cFY5dWJwblA3Q2Y3ZU1PQ252bUV1NVl1cF9pbDVMam9PNEhWRlo2MXdld3R6VlJMbkE?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/9/why-the-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-matters-amid-us-iran-tensions?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nahost-iran-beschiesst-jordanien-und-bahrain-und-wird-selbst-massiv-angegriffen-a-21eff440-2bcf-447e-8146-243650d51132
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-09/10656183.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQb1FJY0ZsOU5VeHpXeFdyNXJfSWhsUDdMLWViM0FnLTVqUTJYWWxUbENwd3JQcnlMcENuMFIyTHFEQTU2emlIUWxRajlVclJPaTE4VnhQQkxhWHg3OG9Tb3pGUFRUTExqVXlVWDZZTC1rSU5hY2VqOXJteUxGZ2FaY3dodnE4WjUtN3NPREZibUI0a1lBWFE?oc=5
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxPWDRJcW1wUllxQmpHN0tycGF5SERVMEtKQ0p0QXhXMmpnaWRFUlJJN3c4SXh1S3Z1alpXSGdiN2VoeENReDh1Q0o1d2ZBdlUyUkQ2RDZNNVVSUDA5M3NreVRhVzR6bklmbnRvUVN6M2JHOWtCZTczcm9pOGFfV1Y1ekY1TjRHMkNMYWtYVVBibGE0LU9wbWJ3M2l0YXNQb3c2cll6OENacnpiYk96dUlld0FvSVZBZlExVFZ1M1JGZDc0WUZnN2lV?oc=5
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/9/us-expands-iran-strikes-iran-hitting-fishing-piers-near-nuclear-plant?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxOcjJ3MFQwQ3VucnA5X2wzVVA4S2M2dm54OExheU41WFVMQWZXd2hKNzQzaktCUGFGTWdFNS02WEttdlhaU1R2WHY3ZDBBbE9zdW9CeVlhWEx2OUtOVkU2cnRqZkVPMWMzUE5ZbW1nSDVqb2hrd0M0aHdFRVE2SFpfVlY4OFZ2cWV0TWhCcWE1NVRxQVRZRkJxaWVCR005ZkRnRU9xdjV1Ty01NlIyZEZKbUVmN3pLdXc5bDFZcDRTUXZFdC1zM3c?oc=5
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/9/will-nato-get-involved-in-securing-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNLWRoOE9KTTRPTGtUN0R0Z1VzUUhyOU5UVmQ5Z3dGY0otTTNOYnhfQXZhb0FDM1FnT0V1T3QxM05zVWV2UE5BLS1QUHNRbVFSZ0ExdlQyeXk3dE5UTFdnRFlPaVk4dkJ5QThvSVV6S1dkZ0FnMWlGUW10eWo3VHdOTmpNaTQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE5zR2FVTHZrcGRpMzdzaU11YWZTMU9GN2ZWbTFtNkM2YkNRWGh6cEoxdlhQa0Vvd2FpbHVuXzZiWHJRTVBWNU5VU2Y2ZkRVOVNvYjhzMWJMSUs2d0ItV3hoRjFfT2NpUmlGYzBsSHVGRGY?oc=5
- [25] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxQMFdRNlpaV0ZCRU1vbThIVlFSQy11anNlcDc5RUxFbmhraHU2SWptSXVNdFBjX0FmM3hTRlFpa2V2QUlaMGVpZGtJNEY4MzNmMGNwR2RmNm9MaXdqbnBldzRnbnpZUHR3Z2NMbUNBTHpIS2ZRaHIzUWxGQmgwSlUtUllCVmpaVkVRUm9SSi1R0gGTAUFVX3lxTE00X3NPUnQ1dzlkZVBwMGpuYzd1RFJVdlhINXVUTlBRMkdidGpiQ0ZoUVdJYmFZdGRHUkgxcGlSeVJCVTlaUzNNWHNRX2UzZC1QTWs0RU10MjZhcVRHSzVhWUl3alo0WThDY3l4YkpCTTM5WUdQSFNPWFdoNjU5Zl85aTNMMzBCQTZHVjVhWkdvRVZ1bw?oc=5
- [26] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOSzYzNzBjcjFnUWdFWUV3UzBsZzVhcnVVX0ZHOUlXN2lfQWdBWlB6d0RCOGJOd3JKdHpBVkVWd0ViZnd0UndyQ3owUjFhei1BNlQ5WTJZR29WTkowMHd6ZGgwczdrUXlHNjZuSnZSdmZZWXFndTNBbUpyQTVLZXQyMFJYZmZSNjJ5WS1wMF82UnY3dmNRZE56UlVGX2Y1bTY4SDRBTjVPRDVYSUxYN19hX28yLU9wNU1uUmowcm41T0lodU3SAcgBQVVfeXFMT1hZZkt5OTdLdDVMODZSNXJkNE5GU1BLemRqaFlxWlUxbFlCVGJyQmhvMTVzVTRvMWp1VmZONHZ4NVVqUmFwRlpoUE05UHBFczJKSTdrcFFHUi1rX2I4WHkwS1dWUERvM2FFSjZ0T3d6U3VvMFhLWGlfSmdXUUc1aGRaeVhfdkhSNXNyaGJIZFp
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxPYmQyTXJRVFgtVE1uM1MtLUhNb0dLaUNLMUxyYUpLcUhHWmowR2JhZGZtamJZaWJNNG13TkI5RFU4N19sZHl3czZkblU1Mi1tcDVCUjlRTGdXWDRLc3Y4bkc3ai1ObmVwQV9oYXdvN3lwVEdhX0F1bk5aUm05WktoZ2FrVm9JQnpfeUQxZF9tRmoxdXF6VWlnYXVKbw?oc=5
2026-07-06
2026-07-06
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：霍尔木兹海峡通航量跌至冲突前水平的17%，美方护航能力有限，俄罗斯燃料危机持续。
- 7月2-4日美方护航通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船仅70艘，日均23艘，冲突前日均138艘（China News Service）。
- 俄罗斯燃料危机加剧，民众排队加油长达18小时（来自历史上下文）。
关键事件
- 美方护航霍尔木兹日均仅23艘（China News Service）
- 俄罗斯燃料危机民众排队（Reuters历史报道）
关注 / 展望
霍尔木兹海峡通航若持续低位，全球石油供应将面临实质性中断，关注美伊谈判及护航效果。
关联路径
霍尔木兹通航量骤降 / 石油供应缺口 / 油价上行风险
来源
China News Service / Google News - World / The Independent / France 24 #3 / Die Zeit Politics / The New York Times / Russian Government News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ORF.at News / Global News / Yonhap News TV / n-tv Politik / El País Internacional / Deutsche Welle German News
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNem9aeTdMZS1SYzcydDMydVQza0I3eEhwXy1qeVYyYjdzMUxhWjJwajRXNFM4UmVrNm1Ob0ltbnNYX0tCT0NTR1VZWkh4X2JYaUxBOXZYYzl6VmlIZUJ1S2JGRXRqc3NhUDQ3Xy1UdTd4bGptbjRhMFduMk9vUmF5a1ZfS2Y?oc=5
- [2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/iran-israel-new-york-strait-of-hormuz-saudi-arabia-b3009330.html
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653267.shtml
- [4] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260705-iran-grande-pri%C3%A8re-pour-les-fun%C3%A9railles-d-ali-khamenei-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran
- [5] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/2026-07/opec-oelproduktion-foerderung-markt
- [6] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/business/opec-production-iran-war.html
- [7] http://government.ru/en/news/59229
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/cargo-ship-reportedly-attacked-in-red-sea-off-yemen/a-77838529?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://orf.at/stories/3435361
- [10] https://globalnews.ca/news/11953602/canada-seeking-clarity-annual-cusma-review
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260706053421yqP
- [12] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-trifft-Selenskyj-vor-Nato-Gipfel-id31050907.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/america/2026-07-05/la-paradoja-de-trump-en-venezuela-el-apoyo-a-un-regimen-al-que-prometio-derrocar.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/de/staatschefs-putin-und-selenskyj-rufen-trump-an/a-77836694?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxOU2pnNmNzUTctOHVzeDVQdDZCZHBfZFlHUEhzcmN5c3BpUWVzaTlxQm5UNkZ1NC1SYkd3MkRaNFdSWkRSTXVFXzhpNXFjcWhqd0FVSEFFUG1MdTdfeUlLOVhDenh3UUt5N0NVTHRyLUFzbGFHVnpxY2xCZlFxZ204b3lJNUJyLUFGcjFleU5mOTlVak16MXl5cmVQTjBCd9IBowFBVV95cUxOWkhoQTlPVm1JU1RDQmkzc2UxdHZpZEY4U0pBSWdVUTdOcV9nVzBvQnB6eWhvSDhfWnA4REZvOFNsOGk3YXBCdHVMWHd6SlZ2MzhKdkpERm1EaW9OWjdVRFFZaS03SXpldGM4TjhHN0ZiN3paYnNuWGxISmFlckFVd24tYlhzUV9oSU1odTJOTUdGdU9ZSlJXT216b3BxVk43WDRV?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPZnM4c3Z0bXNvTWdmbVhPS0JpZ191RGp5UUduV3UwTm5vblhBQ2RTQ1doeHlCbXBJZnlGcm5XSWc1Sm1Wa29aX3pkRXA0d19GUl9jLWVGNVBjdjNGSU9nVC1fczNmQl9vOVJVOHVUM0Fvb1JFNGR4Y2VtUHB4dnZIXy1YZUtrOTZ1VjJ0OHlBQjJ4VGg5Tm9VZnhUMUxsbTlGSzJIRnpZMDRhOW_SAbABQVVfeXFMTUFjV1V0Ukc3ZnpUNXlSYmN1NmJUTlIzWGFIVGN5aEQ0WUxLWTl1MVFXeE5tU2k3M09Ya1RRMWhxNU9xWVppT1pQZGdWWG9PdXh4OGx5djlBaVcwQy1KRGZkZXhpb0ZfX3pFc09DWHdWWnMxR0ViS3BKOURIVUwzckVfSFEydFhxV3U4U19xQzdzSGpJa3Y3TUd6V3R4dDkwN3lMUFE0Ujg
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/middleeast/iran-funeral-khamenei-tehran.html
- [18] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/trauerfeier-iran-ali-chamenei-teheran
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/06/selenskyj-fuerchtet-massive-russische-attacke-vor-nato-gipfel
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/au-c%C5%93ur-de-l-info-l-invit%C3%A9/20260705-elena-volochine-le-pouvoir-russe-est-sur-une-ligne-de-cr%C3%AAte
- [21] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-06/10653265.shtml
- [22] https://orf.at/stories/3435327
- [23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/israel-tehran-donald-trump-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-strait-of-hormuz-b3009267.html
2026-07-05
2026-07-05
进展要点
- 乌克兰无人机袭击导致俄罗斯卢克石油旗下最大炼油厂再次暂停运营，该厂为俄第四大炼油厂及第二大汽油生产商。（Kyiv Independent）
关键事件
- 俄主要炼油厂因无人机袭击再次停产（Kyiv Independent）
关联路径
Drone strike / refinery shutdown / gasoline / crude supply loss
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Sky News / RT News / Los Angeles Times World & Nation / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / Sud Ouest / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Mehr News Agency / A News / Kyiv Independent / France 24 #3 / El Mundo - International News / BBC News (Top) / Valor Econômico Politics / USTR Press Releases
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-hit-as-ukraine-targets-russia-in-major-drone-attack-13560510
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-05/10652908.shtml
- [4] https://www.rt.com/news/642585-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-mourning/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [5] https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-07-04/iran-begins-dayslong-funeral-for-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-killed-in-war
- [6] https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2026-07/erdbeben-venezuela-la-guaira-tote-nachbeben
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPTnZZMm5oVERvUHpwZGVVazNQOFZmWERRRU9UWmk0Tkhyd2NOQTZJa2xkRXlqcXVGTmNPRFJ4TDdrNmo0ZXJXY1VoMW80QnNYLS1CalgzWmVrck1uZmxVX2JtTk05S1FrbUJpLV9DQkZaNFRSRnotT3YzVlNBN1hPZmpVc29KbmhWM1NlMVBDdmJfV0RhQWc?oc=5
- [8] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/iran/iran-une-foule-compacte-dans-le-centre-de-teheran-pour-un-dernier-adieu-a-khamenei-29795044.php
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/world/middleeast/the-funeral-of-irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-khamenei-s-funeral-ceremonies-officially-begin/a-77816592?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245890/Iran-s-Intel-Min-vows-to-avenge-blood-of-martyred-Leader
- [12] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-gives-iran-leverage-comparable-to-nuclear-weapon
- [13] https://kyivindependent.com/major-russian-oil-refinery-suspends-operations-again-after-ukrainian-drone-strike
- [14] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260704-en-direct-d%C3%A9but-de-l-hommage-de-trois-jours-pour-le-d%C3%A9funt-guide-supr%C3%AAme-iranien-ali-khamenei
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a492bc9e85ece104c8b457a-video.html
- [16] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j2vmzxezro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [17] https://valor.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/07/04/trump-ofereceu-ajuda-a-putin-para-acordo-com-ucrnia-diz-assessor-do-kremlin.ghtml
- [18] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-ranchers-manufacturers-and-businesses-applaud-president-trump-not-rubber-stamping
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/4/russias-medvedev-says-strait-of-hormuz-is-irans-nuclear?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245884/Iran-warns-against-military-moves-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
- [21] https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2026/07/04/uk-france-say-ready-to-deploy-multinational-force-to-secure-strait-of-hormuz
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxOUXVfTjQ0NmJWOW9yNFlPTUVySUVqZlV4NW93V0NKWTFRY2cxeWhzVjFDNVRaY1dNekVXSUEwVk1ROG0tSUc0SzJsVWJuUHM4UlFoOXNyeHBNcjNFRjVjX2Q1Qk5ZcVpqR3lZSnJ1X1J6Qmtoc3NCY1p2TkZHUmZ5YU14Q3I0NS1RSEx6M2F0X0NyQk42clZLMXhIZHJORGNxZkhpSnV4MjlaVkU3ZkpCaw?oc=5
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-04/10652893.shtml
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPUk1vYU8yRWN0UDZvcTNTSEtCQlc4NjQxdXFSdlVoZ2dSY3RfYlRlZDZGeGdLVGxNOE9lWHFYWW5FV3ZyNjZxSGZvX0FWTmZmZldRMEE5dlVCUEpfbXRmVEpxb19KSkIzWkk0U2llU1dQNm5iZk9ENU0tUDhULXpTSXlORVMxN2ZsQXhDeko4WXd1WVhMV2JPY2dUTXNqRjFMRV9MdGhVRThRY09WMWc?oc=5
- [25] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/7/4/will-economic-pressure-move-the-kremlin-towards-talks-with-kyiv?traffic_source=rss
- [26] https://kyivindependent.com/st-petersburg-oil-terminal-july-4
- [27] https://www.sudouest.fr/international/europe/ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-la-russie-affirme-que-des-drones-envoyes-par-kiev-ont-touche-un-terminal-petrolier-a-saint-petersbourg-29788535.php
- [28] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/07/04/6a49243521efa0d45f8b458f.html
2026-07-04
2026-07-04
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：俄罗斯多个地区汽油短缺，私人加油站限购，政府向哈萨克斯坦寻求人道主义供应。
- 俄罗斯因燃料危机计划从东北亚进口航空燃油，凸显精炼产能瓶颈。
- 新罗西斯克暂停汽油零售，黑海港口城市供应紧张。
关键事件
- 俄罗斯汽油短缺，转向哈萨克斯坦寻求人道主义供应（n-tv Politik）
- 俄罗斯因燃料危机拟从东北亚进口航空燃油（Reuters via Google News）
关注 / 展望
俄罗斯国内燃料危机短期难解，进口需求增加将收紧东北亚及哈萨克斯坦成品油市场，支撑全球汽油裂解价差。
关联路径
俄罗斯炼厂受损 / 汽油短缺 / 进口需求上升 / 区域成品油价格上行
来源
Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Google News - World / The Independent / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Tagesschau / Le Monde International / RT News / China Government English News
参考链接
- [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-seen-less-likely-raise-130759582.html
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/4/iran-war-live-millions-expected-in-tehran-for-funeral-of-ali-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-07/04/paris-und-london-wollen-strasse-von-hormus-mit-oman-absichern
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE1IRmJkU3lmYi1xelNicG5hWFJ5QmJOc2U5dlJxN09Jc2EzM3J4dG5RSDZxNEE1akRYR3JkTEpjQ1VkQmZBVC1xMjdLaWhuVzhSTUhTTGRNZWhhcHN1dkJ6VmpCamxUOG9mZmlrRjdwQ0NsX3U3VGY5UzRxSdIBgAFBVV95cUxQS3FWdEt4UHMtMEM0Rmt0RENXTnJKTC04c3hsVlcxb2hYT2xJelk2SUJndHgwTk56ZnBnSGpiOFBOLW02QlgwcjhzanpIelB1b3otaW51czJPTnJTM0RERWlmdHRFSEJpNVVJcmRwMVdsNU14VUpfTkVaX2g5aGpFRg?oc=5
- [5] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-funeral-iran-b3008364.html
- [6] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russland-sucht-Benzin-im-Ausland-id31045531.html
- [7] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140474-suputnik-pokazav-stupin-poskodzenna-vijskovih-i-adernih-obektiv-iranu-zmi.html
- [8] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine-russland-krieg-142.html
- [9] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/07/03/seisme-au-venezuela-un-dernier-bilan-fait-etat-de-2-645-morts-et-12-666-blesses_6720488_3210.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642546-iran-us-israel-ghalibaf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://english.www.gov.cn/news
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/iran-begins-week-of-funeral-ceremonies-for-slain-supreme-leader-khamenei?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxPanlfMW1EMnFya2ZMNmFLVjBtT3ctNzZIdmVvVlVsYlNYNTJMRXJaTXlRU3BET0dncnF1UDlTMFdmVy14ZnkwdVdjWjNrS203OExQQjBjTUJHRTRBVUdYYkRSVUVLVGszZjF2ZWRMU2VvY0RhWGhVTFpPV0VkTmE1cTVHVnZueU9OOHBnT0xCcmNZdVVmeS1WZzdyS050NUVNcm1BQVlGZmV6N0NySlFJa3NIRG9YNDk2QUhR?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/3/yemens-houthis-threaten-saudi-arabia-after-alleged-airspace-intrusion?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-crimea-moscow-b3008512.html
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNZkg1ZzBwMDZqYVhHLUwtUWhNbWd2eVJkOGdFcDJHZUxKWTRFc3MyZTdoWHpKczlmVTgwR2R5QjQwU0lhUmJNOVYydlppNHR3emVMaEVuQW9GY1RHU1pHVFhYcDRBeWZHcG1sVjFFYWp2blNseUZjVjRHampXU3BPeHVsWDZBMGhOUVJaaWF5dzN1bWdocWR5eFA1MU90ZlQ5cUhvTHEySXJ6LUsw?oc=5
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/rohstofffonds-bundesregierung-johann-wadephul-seltene-erden-brasilien
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/largest-us-power-grid-pjm-190819959.html
- [19] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/carl-skau-welternaehrungsprogramm-vereinten-nationen-hunger-iran
- [20] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/cossacks-volunteers-help-keep-order-043430489.html
- [21] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/07/03/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-dans-la-ville-de-kiev-au-lendemain-de-l-attaque-la-plus-meurtriere-depuis-le-debut-de-la-guerre-les-recherche-se-poursuivent-dans-les-decombres_6716525_3210.html
- [22] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bildet-China-russische-Soldaten-aus-Berlin-bittet-Botschafter-zum-Gespraech-id31046589.html
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/642553-us-wants-access-cook-islands-critical-minerals-ambassador/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-07-03
2026-07-03
进展要点
- 外贝加尔边疆区因乌克兰无人机袭击炼油厂导致燃料危机，Rosneft加油站出现4公里长、约600-800辆车的排队队伍。（Meduza）
关键事件
- 俄外贝加尔边疆区出现4公里长加油车队，Rosneft加油站排600-800辆车（Meduza）
关联路径
Drone attacks on refineries / fuel shortage / long queues
来源
Xinhua World / Politika / Google News - World / The New Indian Express / Al Jazeera Middle East / Anadolu Agency Politics / La Tribune / Meduza / n-tv Politik / Ukrinform / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle) / ANTARA News / Yahoo News - World
参考链接
- [1] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767802/izrael-spreman-za-samostalni-vojni-udar-protiv-irana-ako-bude-potrebno
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxOLVdjbGMxNzNIN0lpak9kdDNFQ2djWmhSYmh6Y2Y4SHpCbXdYWkRNMGlkSFBOOWtxSUNrSDFCTDM2N1VwTEt3ZnBJUmVaaUY1YXF1YjFacWg3UWNRUFlZSUhDTkN3Y3Z0Nm53QVY2T2xYUFJGbElEZHMteUMtYm9IY1JUTGZPUDRyWXpqYkpVZ2lTY0E?oc=5
- [3] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jul/02/iran-warns-oil-tankers-to-use-approved-routes-in-strait-of-hormuz-or-face-forceful-response
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/german-prosecutors-allege-ukraine-ordered-nord-stream-pipeline-attack?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-prices-jump-25-as-weak-us-jobs-data-cools-fed-hike-bets/3984510
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260703/a77dd64ae6ea4783832e416f5c77d0d2/c.html
- [7] https://www.latribune.fr/article/economie/international/22415974798200/etats-unis-le-marche-de-l-emploi-ralentit-les-marches-jubilent
- [8] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/v-zabaykalskom-krae-snyali-na-video-chetyrehkilometrovuyu-ochered-na-zapravku-rosnefti-v-ney-stoit-600-800-avtomobiley
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Besitzer-von-russischem-Tanker-zahlt-Millionenstrafe-an-Frankreich-id31040935.html
- [10] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4140186-es-nacilivsa-na-tankeri-rosijskogo-tinovogo-flotu-aki-nezakonno-vikoristovuut-prapor-kamerunu-reuters.html
- [11] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/yen-jumps-into-160-range-for-1st-time-in-2-weeks-on-intervention-fears
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/eu-targets-chinese-imports-amid-trade-talks/a-77800366?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [13] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5633043/ekspor-minyak-saudi-via-hormuz-capai-level-tertinggi-sejak-perang-iran
- [14] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-us-iran-talks-013010346.html
- [15] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767793/kovceg-sa-telom-hamneija-stigao-u-huseiniju-imama-homeinija-uoci-pocetka-oprostaja
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTFBpc3EzUGNBbk4wMk9vQi1ZcmgyTnJtSnE2NDZocXd6RFZaUXRieXhDa21yQ3lXLV9ia2tuMFFEVlMzTmpTNllZMHlUbw?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPRlNwaTgzVm82dHE0SUZjMERWTHZEQWtERXVIaG1wbEJnSU80UFVJS1J6ZVAxOHpIQmE0QzhDalNCTFV6SmNhbW4wUlV4YmRvRUcwQlc2eDFpNnM4UUJZRlZIQnFqampTRDFjdUVkNHNiN1BuLW9tNVdZMzlsdzhrX1RNTXBVbkFCMm8zTGdub2xkZUpUZWNXSGFtZEkwZkxhWGVfRXlybGp2Z0cxMmtJY0FZNXkwblBk?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/with-hormuz-reopened-has-the-oil-shortage-turned-into-a-glut?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/saudi-crude-exports-from-gulf-hit-highest-since-iran-war-truce-report/3984278
- [20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-economy-adds-fewer-than-expected-57-000-jobs-in-june/3984359
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/why-has-trump-refused-to-renew-the-usmca-and-what-will-that-mean?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.politika.rs/scc/clanak/767783/medvedev-finska-ce-biti-medu-ciljevima-ruskog-nuklearnog-naoruzanja
- [23] https://meduza.io/news/2026/07/02/kyrgyzstan-poprosil-sosednie-gosudarstva-i-belarus-pomoch-s-postavkami-topliva-90-benzina-strana-poluchala-iz-rossii
- [24] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ukraine-gelingt-weiterer-Schlag-gegen-russische-Oelindustrie-id31038777.html
2026-07-02
2026-07-02
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：霍尔木兹海峡水雷清理需至少两个月，航运公司仍视该区域为战区；一艘船只在该海峡搁浅，伊朗强调控制权。
- 俄罗斯因炼油厂遭袭出现汽油短缺，罕见从印度进口汽油，反映供应侧压力向成品油传导。
关键事件
- 霍尔木兹海峡水雷密布，清雷需两个月（ANTARA News Jawa Timur）
- 俄罗斯从印度进口汽油应对短缺（Google News - World，据路透社）
关注 / 展望
霍尔木兹通道恢复时间可能长于预期，短期油价对供应中断敏感；关注俄炼厂修复进度及进口持续性。
关联路径
霍尔木兹水雷 / 油轮通行受阻 / 全球原油供应紧张
俄炼厂遭袭 / 成品油短缺 / 推高裂解价差
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India / Al Jazeera Middle East / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / The New York Times / Deutsche Welle German News / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTE5DclJhM0xOZmJZWWVhemhJdmpBOWZzb0EtM1NiUEJtS2c3MGdsX2tqR3lpWjBPazg5QWE0LXR0X01VNVdqNk9kUDhIenB6NXRWR1RpeVVRTTBWc19fUjdTV0prSW53UWtJNnVKTXR3U2NGU3djR3Jv?oc=5
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702090822jwc
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651050.shtml
- [4] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20zgjzz0e4o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.dw.com/en/us-declines-to-renew-usmca-trade-pact-with-mexico-canada/a-77793686?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [6] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-takes-the-war-to-moscow-why-kyiv-unleashed-its-biggest-attacks-after-g7-summit/articleshow/132114028.cms
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/how-war-on-iran-changed-the-global-energy-sector-forever?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1078404/selat-hormuz-masih-dipenuhi-ranjau-pembersihan-perlu-2-bulan
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260702/172a0a8c075a4de388ee2f69eb4649a2/c.html
- [11] https://www.dw.com/de/benzinkrise-in-russland-ukraine-setzt-putin-unter-druck/a-77776237?maca=de-rss-de-all-1119-rdf
- [12] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-defence-minister-says-troops-to-stay-indefinitely-in-lebanon-syria-gaza/article71171573.ece
- [13] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-02/10651036.shtml
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260702063728bit
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260702053914jcI
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPWFRJMk44c05WbExLd0NkcUJOQ05NUWI0U1N6YzBkSmNQVFlRMl9MLVIzaHRMY25hZE5PQUNuWktOMTJQUFdOODR5N0xYN3dIVUhpMUtzTzFIdk1WMFJ3MVptY3RsREM5QjRQRzZxZ3JTU3NscEdPUlRPeVFHaHRoZ05xN2dsZDZtLUVRNXNVZHlrVU1JU3FKSG5xSWN0UVdjN3hZaVRTbWhHYVk?oc=5
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNWkZYV0pQcGtwWU8xYlNxQVJKNmxyc05LWWd3RnQ2M21VNTIta21JQ2puNF9EdXlqWTRPMHZqT3hOVE5Sa3o2NExGaGtxcmJHbGdCVzVEblVJeWpITGpRQkFxU0J0eTN0c2RuY04zYm1wZVNCX0c4NkJrVXZXR3IyVDBRUW5faXNiRnZPd2lmcmxOWkNPeHhDQzhQeU9xWVR3THRaaTY0OVM?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/1/us-says-it-wont-agree-to-renew-usmca?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.thehindu.com/videos/watch-drop-in-prices-of-commercial-lpg-cylinders-aviation-turbine-fuel-as-west-asia-conflict-eases/article71171543.ece
- [20] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/shipping-companies-unions-still-consider-hormuz-a-warzone/article71171371.ece
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/7/1/is-ukraines-campaign-of-targeting-russian-refineries-working?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/business/kevin-warsh-inflation-ecb.html
- [23] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-japan-to-sign-lng-security-pact-during-pm-modi-takaichi-bilateral/articleshow/132117357.cms
2026-06-29
2026-06-29
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：乌克兰持续攻击俄罗斯能源设施，普京首次公开承认燃料短缺。
- 乌克兰无人机袭击导致俄罗斯大型炼油厂起火，进一步加剧成品油供应紧张。
- 普京召集紧急会议应对多个地区出现的汽油和柴油短缺问题。
关键事件
- 乌克兰无人机袭击致俄罗斯炼油厂起火（Yahoo News - World）
- 普京承认乌克兰袭击致俄燃料短缺（Der Spiegel International）
关注 / 展望
俄罗斯燃料短缺可能持续，影响国内供应及全球成品油市场；关注乌克兰是否加大袭击力度。
关联路径
乌克兰袭击炼油厂 / 俄罗斯成品油产量下降 / 国内及区域燃料价格上涨
俄罗斯燃料短缺 / 全球柴油 / 汽油供应收紧 / 能源价格波动
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / France 24 #2 / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / The Hindu BusinessLine / Times of India / Yonhap News TV / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / Der Spiegel International / RT News / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260628-iran-threatens-to-halt-talks-after-fresh-us-strikes-attacks-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/araghchi-strait-of-hormuz-remains-under-iranian-control-for-30-days?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-following-renewed-us-233412520.html
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260629/72c7151f0d5a44ac84fb6e294a46d4f2/c.html
- [5] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-and-iran-agree-to-halt-strikes-plan-doha-talks-over-hormuz-dispute-axios-reports/article71159808.ece
- [6] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-29/10648990.shtml
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260629065045N2l
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxNUjMzVkxxSXh2OVNqNEhNQ0V3Njh5cGdkYnE4VUdwaE5xRU1hRzdvXzRmQXpNQ1NmdE9BbDAwXzBWa05KbnlDU2xLRVRiY2NpdWN1T1RFSk16cHBjSlR6Q3lER1FNblpLd1ZJRlU1QmdTejNpTU12NGxYenRWRlB3aVREX21RRVdwaXkxdVBvM2doTEdZdXpJRE9kZVNMS01WZ2xfU2U1cVk?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iran-warns-ships-not-to-bypass-its-chosen-hormuz-route/article71159031.ece
- [11] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/world/europe/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-peace-talks.html
- [12] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-wladimir-putin-raeumt-treibstoffmangel-nach-ukrainischen-angriffen-ein-a-a69147bc-7d0e-47a7-81d8-83520968cab7
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642317-us-nature-break-promises-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260628-tehran-targets-bahrain-and-kuwait-after-us-attacks
- [15] https://www.news.cn/world/20260628/6761e481d6c644cf8ee679f0d882e578/c.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/29/iran-war-live-tehran-insists-on-control-of-hormuz-amid-reports-of-us-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260628-le-contr%C3%B4le-et-la-mon%C3%A9tarisation-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-au-coeur-des-discussions-%C3%A0-venir
- [18] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-forcing-u-escalation-trap-175146972.html
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQcDBTQkFEbzlzV3FGUXhBeks0Wm5CV2RIU0J4aFcwTl9jRFRNeHRNbkxzVEZNa3ZNSTcwS1FDZm5PM3RDbVJuMFc0bWRwR1hhSlZFVGlMSkdvOC1GcnlLUWpUbjQ0aFlMYWN3X0gtdVBUWHZYSHNKR3BKelJtdUZ1dUpnTWVubU1BOWowd1N3aE1kckE1Uklya1huN25iLUxYM2Q5N0JtcVY?oc=5
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260629052746BCz
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMid0FVX3lxTFAzS1lkbHd5RDY0ZUY3bFB2OWgySDBmaUVMU0xzXzV6QXZucTNzTTgyelJuMloyOFpBdmNpOWtmVkFvSXMya3RfUGtzNUl0NlFiaGJyY0paTkNKYm5Md2RVZU5pUUZYSDUxc3ZwNXozdTdDZGdMZDJR?oc=5
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/28/us-and-iran-trade-strikes-days-after-peace-agreement?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukrainian-strike-sets-fire-oil-101732043.html
2026-06-26
2026-06-26
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：俄罗斯NORSI炼油厂遭无人机袭击后停产，今年不太可能恢复生产（Google News - World, Reuters）。
- 消息人士称该厂年内恢复无望。
关键事件
- NORSI炼油厂遭袭停产（Reuters）
关注 / 展望
俄罗斯炼油能力受损，可能影响成品油供应，加剧全球能源市场紧张。
关联路径
无人机袭击 / 炼油厂停产 / 成品油供应紧张
来源
Xinhua World / n-tv Politik / Sky News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Ukrinform / Google News - World / C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy / BBC News (Top) / Anadolu Agency Politics / Yahoo News - World / The New Indian Express / The Independent / RT News / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Strasse-von-Hormus-nach-Schiffsangriff-zeitweise-geschlossen-id31014682.html
- [2] https://news.sky.com/story/un-suspends-strait-of-hormuz-evacuation-after-ship-hit-by-projectile-13557819
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/26/iran-war-live-israel-attacks-lebanon-as-netanyahu-says-troops-to-stay?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137757-iran-atakuvav-civilne-sudno-v-ormuzkij-protoci.html
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMicEFVX3lxTE95V3NFS3M5NHpEM1c3cDZFbFAxeU9rQ3JmaFUyVzlxOWtnTkNuY0VZeURhNjl3bk94dG1JaTJ4OG16dG9RendIeklId0h5Y1lGMmV3bnpuUTZrTEROUkJwU09qdkhxR0hmUXFPSTFMcm8?oc=5
- [6] https://cdhowe.org/publication/north-american-free-trade-is-gone-dead-and-buried
- [7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwg9np904qo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/daily-commercial-vessel-traffic-in-strait-of-hormuz-hits-post-war-high/3978114
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/un-agency-says-pauses-hormuz-180527069.html
- [10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Jun/25/british-military-says-cargo-ship-hit-by-projectile-off-oman-near-un-approved-route-for-strait-of-hormuz
- [11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-earthquake-death-toll-missing-magnitude-b3003101.html
- [12] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/6fc8b99c6a274ace906e96c21e462d1a/c.html
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/642124-iran-us-hormuz-dispute/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5623523/menlu-as-sebut-negara-negara-teluk-tolak-biaya-tarif-atas-selat-hormuz
- [15] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxOb2hvUU8ta3ZNNEpHLXViODlSdk1odzlhUUtPLUtLWkV3ZWtaVi02RmxKbTdjbnNGUjk2SVhxQWVwVjdDbURXdUMyWW9vX2R2Y1V2bWZKLVpnLWc4eWJsUDd0RW5sZWxYTFMzZ1RKNE5vSTFMUkUtOG50LTVJM3NRaW5ERXdnUmhwNHhjYWo2enhOWENiQWJTWHdzNnhfTXEyNWNYbEVobzh1a2Z2RjdZ?oc=5
- [16] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNbEVHVTRvRDdQV0h4aHloNU1NUjJwSVNVTTlhY2pjSF83aEZXVWo3QXpQbi1QdXctRFc3dmxRODluMnlqSEJlLTdZQTJrTmF2Z19kcWZfd0ZlTEtLQTl6akQxRjBUYVB4eGFBd0lzbi0tTEU0NEdYMm1xRUYyMG44UklkVmpMMUhHM2YxcnlJamhRcFlEcElhb0FjbzdQSnJsaExpaVk2aGdkNTNZajd1bjZR?oc=5
- [17] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-gulf-states-call-for-reopening-hormuz-reject-any-tolls-fees-or-attempts-to-assert-control-over-waterway/3978163
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/bulletin-world-briefing-thursday-25-june-2026-b3003096.html
- [20] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/featured-documentaries/2026/6/25/iran-israel-and-the-bomb?traffic_source=rss
- [21] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/oman-backs-iran-us-deal-says-future-hormuz-transit-will-be-fee-free/3977936
- [22] https://www.news.cn/world/20260625/45341251187b4f638ce2cdb87dab7551/c.html
2026-06-25
2026-06-25
进展要点
- 据路透社报道，莫斯科炼油厂可能要到2027年才能恢复生产，该厂因乌克兰无人机袭击受损。（Google News - World）
关键事件
- 莫斯科炼油厂复产或推迟至2027年（Google News - World）
关联路径
Refinery outage / reduced fuel supply / higher oil prices
来源
Xinhua World / Xinhua Finance / China News Service / The Korea Times / Google News - World / Anadolu Agency Politics / Al Jazeera Middle East / Nikkei Asia / Ukrinform / RT News / BBC News (Top) / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260624/faf92e11b67d4988acd7063698ca873e/c.html
- [2] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260625/rubio-says-tolls-on-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-happen?utm_source=rss
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxOcUNoNDdBVEJHd28tNzQ1aHNNRERxZE9Rd0pUX2NON3kyOXhaSmkyV0pNdXVlZlZSUnp0bmppSTVHT1VXakxXODc3eERiUEJVNElnTUd1QW5MZUVmemVnTlF1MUVpbzV1NmdrSTFKRjVSMTNJYzFhdmtXOGg5azRvSmotQktTVkZIX3hNbDdWdk42WFh0QVk3MUV6b1pzMllNVWJmUS1JVmhZNVNPZmxRVmVwTkQtbF9W?oc=5
- [4] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260625/0fb0dd02789b41ac88e962f882310d1a/c.html
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2026/06-24/10646728.shtml
- [6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-energy-secretary-says-20m-barrels-of-oil-exited-hormuz-in-last-24-hours/3977057
- [7] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/counting-the-cost/2026/6/24/has-the-worst-of-the-hormuz-crisis-passed?traffic_source=rss
- [8] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/iran-scrambles-to-move-estimated-8.5bn-in-oil-as-us-eases-sanctions
- [9] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4137223-cini-na-zoloto-vperse-za-dovgij-cas-vpali-nizce-4000-za-unciu.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/642051-no-war-no-peace-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eydwldzdjo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://unn.ua/news/zelenskyi-doruchyv-zsu-byty-na-vyperedzhennia-po-obiektakh-yaki-rf-vykorystovuie-dlia-masshtabuvannia-viiny
- [13] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxPeUpTSE5UMUdXb1pOaEc0QUxMS0R4R21sdXRudXJMQTRRQUhia0hpczY5Y2gxUzR4djlpQkNlUTBqcC1ZT0VZUDV5UFBnY2YzRC1vMDZNbXpVdFozRHk2X0tpRTJteTJHbkIxN3FCUUxLQ1lETXg3UF9Td0FKWmo0OHJJRlMtUk1VdEl3LWdzWXJVaXFwZVpWag?oc=5
- [14] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-exported-40m-barrels-of-crude-since-june-15-tankertrackers-says/3976997
- [15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/oil-prices-extend-losses-as-brent-hits-pre-conflict-low-on-easing-hormuz-concerns/3976930
- [16] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/6981cb5f350545cd89e1f5de72a93b18/c.html
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137206-iran-zapevniv-ssa-so-ne-stague-platu-za-prohid-cerez-ormuzku-protoku-tramp.html
- [19] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260624/trump-says-assured-by-iran-no-tolls-to-be-charged-at-hormuz?utm_source=rss
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxPaXU3bmV4YUtuUEZYbDMyYjB6dG9ZQ1NIRjB2bHhqQ3RtbkJFTjl0M3UwVTViSExsN05KT2tiV0tZd0VJNnhKbzVpdGJtWkpzSjdfQU1nNGdpVHlMYkdkM3l1MzVQeksyWEJzdEhSMFE5N3hLamVKUzI4aEYwMEhKbkFLeE4tSFlEMjlTNmtwUlA0eHBVNU9kaktENmU0YnU3ZU5WLVZPd2g5MVJqU0llUw?oc=5
- [21] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260624/4aaf85f712de49798d50cfa96ba21583/c.html
- [22] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/24/japan-weighs-deploying-forces-to-demine-the-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [23] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-25/10646731.shtml
- [24] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4137263-katar-planue-vidnoviti-virobnictvo-spg-protagom-kilkoh-tizniv.html
- [25] https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/japan-china-tensions/china-detains-2-japanese-over-alleged-rare-earth-export-control-breach
2026-06-24
2026-06-24
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：乌克兰持续无人机袭击俄炼油厂，导致汽油短缺蔓延至航空燃料，俄罗斯考虑进口并禁止柴油出口。
- 卡塔尔工厂爆炸（历史事件）叠加俄罗斯炼厂问题，全球炼油产能趋紧。
关键事件
- 乌克兰袭击俄炼油厂致燃料短缺，俄考虑进口（La Libre）
- 俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭汽油短缺蔓延至航空燃料（Bloomberg）
关注 / 展望
俄罗斯燃料供应紧张可能持续，若航空燃料短缺恶化，将影响民航运营，关注俄政府是否实施出口禁令。
关联路径
炼油厂产能受损 / 国内汽油短缺 / 俄罗斯进口需求增加 / 全球成品油市场收紧
来源
China News Service / Xinhua World / Al Jazeera Middle East / Google News - World / Evening Standard Politics / Deutsche Welle German News / BBC News (Top) / Die Presse / La Libre - International Europe / Yahoo News - World / Ukrinform / NBC News Politics / Ukrainian National News (UNN) - Politics / DW German News Service / Nikkei Asia / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/un-starts-evacuating-11000-stranded-sailors-from-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxNUEhPMFVsd1lLSFU1bXQ0TzBxLVRNdU5RbXRkZlN3aVNBQXpiajR4ZXNxMlY1YkhUcGF0OWV5eFIwOW1xdDh3ME82X1QteF9BM1hBYnhvZ3FaZFJITi1PakFsajBma3ljWE9SNmYtQktKYVYybTlUdDBXOGZ2Yi0yNFIwQlpPRGpZOHNqMGpvcw?oc=5
- [3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/iran-strait-of-hormuz-marco-rubio-keir-starmer-british-b1287320.html
- [4] https://www.dw.com/de/teheran-iran-wird-straße-von-hormus-verwalten/a-77667212?maca=de-rss-de-top-1016-rdf
- [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24yr796emzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [6] https://www.diepresse.com/32460710/us-aussenminister-rubio-werden-keine-durchfahrtsgebuehren-fuer-hormuz-akzeptieren
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10646007.shtml
- [8] https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/guerre-ukraine-russie/2026/06/23/lukraine-met-la-russie-a-mal-en-visant-ses-raffineries-petrolieres-EPPFHLLF2RHHPEEVROSKWKNC6E
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/latest-pentagon-asks-congress-roughly-125943212.html
- [10] https://www.news.cn/world/20260623/9d0c0295538e4810be1c22f104c67b91/c.html
- [11] https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4136940-senat-ssa-pidtrimav-rezoluciu-aka-zobovazue-trampa-pripiniti-voenni-dii-proti-iranu.html
- [12] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-crimea-shortages-putin-pressure-rcna351328
- [13] https://unn.ua/news/tramp-buv-vrazhenyi-ukrainskymy-udaramy-vhlyb-rosii-ta-pohodyvsia-na-novi-sanktsii-ft
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-VAF-GNS-Kenia-Zebra-en-17289-xml-mrss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/china-plans-postwar-aid-for-iran-with-eye-on-energy-supply
- [16] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-major-crimea-bridge-destroyed-in-latest-attack/a-77678698?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/23/un-begins-evacuation-of-11000-sailors-stranded-in-strait-of-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNUVNPcElCT1VQZnphbHBYdzZYNmY5Q0JBTnZfbUpjNVZCQzhLSURFbDlVLS1kYWpCc2xUTkRtaThBOG01WWxfLWlNZnBFaklrbnY5Z25tM0tGSHFjX0NnRzVwRkJYVUZCUm5vY242cVFBMmswNmhXMlI3Qy1HQ2s2VC1Fbmo1RFhhZEthekdQWDdaVjhJdVJYT2VhQURYdGdfcWdsdnJlelZPMmtiR3QwWFl3?oc=5
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNR2hHa0NIT2RJMkFOTmhXUzFUOHVFTFdIUmVnQ2RGVmVWbms1UzJNaDhwWUdWT2NJbk9USGVncGV5VktVUXE2Unc4dkYyNUczZld4TFRTbEdSNEtZSjJSeldsaXkxNjRfT2hLOVg1MkZlMzY3cmRmRzhDY3VnZmNwMDJqMGFpRHFHb2M3cEQ4eGxRWnYyaEQ0TU05S0w5d1pwS2VXVVNkbjMyWElISGkzaUVn?oc=5
- [20] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx23rnzdgl8o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [21] https://unn.ua/news/yes-u-travni-zbilshyv-zakupivli-rosiiskoho-zph-popry-obmezhennia-crea
- [22] https://unn.ua/news/yes-ne-maie-kupuvaty-haz-i-naftu-v-rf-yakshcho-khoche-zmusyty-putina-do-perehovoriv-hlava-mzs-italii
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/india-prepares-contingency-plans-due-to-weak-monsoon-season?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy06495y2lko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [25] https://www.diepresse.com/32195277/neue-trump-zoelle-das-sind-die-moeglichen-gewinner-und-verlierer-der-deals
- [26] https://www.diepresse.com/32177719/benzinkrise-regt-die-russen-auf-und-setzt-putin-unter-druck
2026-06-23
2026-06-23
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城Barzan天然气加工厂发生爆炸，13死66伤，全球最大LNG出口终端之一停产。
- 爆炸发生在重启操作过程中，Barzan工厂是卡塔尔最大LNG加工设施，占全球LNG产能约10%。
- 乌克兰无人机袭击西伯利亚秋明地区安季平斯克炼油厂，距边境超2000公里，年加工能力750-900万吨。
关键事件
- 卡塔尔拉斯拉凡天然气厂爆炸致13死66伤（Google News - World）
- 卡塔尔天然气出口终端爆炸致13人死亡（Yahoo News - World）
- 乌克兰无人机袭击西伯利亚炼油厂（Il Fatto Quotidiano）
关注 / 展望
卡塔尔LNG恢复时间未知，短期将推高亚洲和欧洲天然气价格；俄罗斯炼油厂受损可能影响成品油供应，需关注后续袭击频率。
关联路径
卡塔尔LNG爆炸 / 全球LNG供给损失 / 天然气价格飙升
俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭 / 成品油供应减少 / 油品裂解价差扩大
来源
China News Service / Index.hu - Külföld / Il Fatto Quotidiano / Google News - World / BBC News (Business) / Mehr News Agency / NPR Politics / Jornal Económico / Yahoo News - World / SVT Nyheter / Rador News Agency / Meduza / Valor Econômico Politics / Yonhap News Agency / The Hindu / Times of India / RT News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle)
参考链接
- [1] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/iran-izrael-libanon-hezbollah-egyesult-allamok-tuzszunet-hormuzi-szoros-beke-donald-trump-benjamin-netanjahu
- [2] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/sanzioni-petrolio-iraniano-usa-sospese-notizie/8426689
- [3] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQM1d6VF85bFlSZ1NnQnVEVFY5QmNzWklpWUtjUDQxd2ZWNUdmLWUtMi1JSUhwdnltMy04dkZaRi1kbHJDcmFXNzE2enVEUWNKOFUza0doZzFsMUx6emxlbVRrSVlyTHlMamVrOXFiR1dLNF9JLTBxdF9xRXZIdTE0WGF3?oc=5
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vy3nr63gxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [5] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-23/10645322.shtml
- [6] https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245525/China-imposes-fresh-sanctions-on-56-US-firms
- [7] https://www.npr.org/2026/06/21/g-s1-129222/us-iran-deal-lebanon-israel-strait-hormuz-jd-vance
- [8] https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/feed
- [9] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ml--qatar-explosion-015432903.html
- [10] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/explosion-vid-industrizon-i-qatar
- [11] https://www.rador.ro/2026/06/22/statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=statele-unite-suspenda-sanctiunile-asupra-petrolului-iranian-pana-pe-21-august
- [12] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/22/v-katare-proizoshel-vzryv-na-krupneyshem-zavode-po-pererabotke-szhizhennogo-gaza-pogibli-13-chelovek-desyatki-raneny
- [13] https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/06/22/petroleo-tem-forte-recuo-com-avanco-diplomatico-entre-eua-e-ira.ghtml
- [14] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000251315
- [15] https://www.thehindu.com/business/us-waives-sanctions-on-iranian-oil-ships/article71134513.ece
- [16] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-eases-oil-sanctions-on-iran-after-vance-says-it-has-agreed-to-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131916209.cms
- [17] https://www.rt.com/news/641977-iran-learned-to-stop-worrying/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-partially-lifts-iran-oil-sanctions-amid-encouraging-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.dw.com/en/us-waives-iran-oil-sanctions-citing-progress-in-talks/live-77653016?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [20] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/22/egyesult-allamok-iran-koolaj-szankciok-mentesites
- [21] https://index.hu/kulfold/2026/06/21/donald-trump-iran-izrael-egyesult-allamok-jd-vance-tuzszunet-targyalas-beke-delegacio-svajc-libanon-hezbollah
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXkFVX3lxTE9uZDBib00zTHk3QkFwR1BmbUZWdkJZT0ctTHdwdDAtOE9rNnlPWWtOUmlrQU1ONmlGaWFFVjI0Wk5hSHhJZUJRbm1ZMUtTbVJFaE9OMU95NFEtVTNKZEE?oc=5
- [23] https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/06/22/ucraina-la-guerra-al-petrolio-di-putin-arriva-fino-in-siberia-colpita-una-raffineria-russa-a-2mila-km-dal-confine/8426521
- [24] https://meduza.io/news/2026/06/22/dostignut-obnadezhivayuschiy-progress-v-shveytsarii-proshel-pervyy-raund-peregovorov-ssha-i-irana
- [25] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/china-targets-us-rare-earth-021542815.html
- [26] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/u-authorizes-iranian-oil-sales-162616323.html
- [27] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOUU9JUFRuQUZpYXZHOW41LXpUcGJGUmh1c2J2Mkk2Tm5FbUROWVB5WllmdWMzalk2dDNDLXh2MDBWOVk1MmRmSEIwQWE4Z2dJcGd3U0J5VGR1MnJKR0VJaE84ak9LSEhVU0s3eWJjZjZzRjhWMWdRWEhtNUxuODNITUJ6OHdsV3VuUU9IYkpEUnJMMG0yWWl2NElBOENRUndNdENv0gGoAUFVX3lxTE80M3kxY0J3d2lVRklaSVUybGtNQjdqVkF2VWJza3ctSmRoamdnMjE0VktNM2l2ZmdXZkRFMEplYVJCWFJBSnViVHBqMFkySFNPemw5QzlpWGdfV05QZmNUb1BXeGJxS0ZTY2Z0RU4yRXZ3Mk9wTXdhc1RiVVhfcFFmUFFWMXpEcjNLOGE0YkZUendHSllDcUJhZUFSbndPRWFENDZ0WVNsNg?oc=5
- [28] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260623000200315
2026-06-22
2026-06-22
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城天然气设施因技术故障爆炸起火，全球LNG关键枢纽受损。
- 事故未检测到危险泄漏，但已引发市场对供应中断的恐慌性买盘。
关键事件
- 卡塔尔拉斯拉凡天然气加工设施爆炸——RT News
关注 / 展望
若设施长期停产，亚洲LNG现货价格将承压上行。
关联路径
LNG供应中断 / 能源价格上行
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / France 24 #3 / RT News / Google News - World / Times of India / ANTARA News Agency / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / The New York Times / El País Internacional / Die Zeit Politics / El Mundo - International News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/inside-story/2026/6/21/whats-next-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260621-fermeture-du-d%C3%A9troit-d-ormuz-qu-est-ce-que-cela-implique-pour-les-marins-sur-place
- [3] https://www.rt.com/news/641944-qatar-lng-blast-fire/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [4] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNRWxtYWxIa0RhbldFTENsNlZndFdweFBoWlhoWFkxWXY0RVZ0SUIxT3dDNVNQSlVjNjlPQ3JEZHVqa0FyM3hSRVBXUFUxYXJ6T1VxQ3NMeV9wX1F6TldlR0RHUThTb0JDMmFpN18zRmNIcGZfWENjMkpQTVFVU3B5RjlQc05sZEI1YUdHNDRUUTcwSE5NWEZHSGRXcUM?oc=5
- [5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/you-wont-make-it-back-to-your-country-amid-us-iran-talks-trump-warns-tehran-against-closing-strait-of-hormuz/articleshow/131894037.cms
- [6] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5617119/trump-tak-ada-pungutan-di-selat-hormuz
- [7] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260621205657HfU
- [8] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-us-begin-charging-204800472.html
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy0q41v1lzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/as-vance-meets-top-iranian-officials-in-switzerland-trump-threatens-tehran-from-afar/article71131391.ece
- [11] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-22/10644712.shtml
- [12] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/business/oil-rises-amid-uncertainty-over-strait-of-hormuz.html
- [13] https://elpais.com/internacional/2026-06-21/crimea-prohibe-la-venta-de-gasolina-a-civiles-y-empresas-ante-el-bloqueo-logrado-por-los-drones-ucranios.html
- [14] https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-06/usa-iran-gespraeche-buergenstock-donald-trump-drohung-strasse-von-hormus
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/21/6a382733e85ece96668b45b2.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/spotlight/20260621-what-s-the-state-of-the-strait
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOcG5XRXhqYllSMDk1cko0aTRtX2dLWTFEVjMxYjhBVUh0WVZueEN4NEtLMUowNkVwNE1SRHFEUE5PMUhVY2o2MGJUbjEwMTlUalZrVzQtOUdxZG96YXFjc1c4LUFnaGtiMDFIeVdEaThKakJsdEJiVXZaX3ZHMFNDRk5R?oc=5
- [18] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-hit-harder-trump-threatens-fresh-military-action-against-iran-amid-switzerland-peace-talks/articleshow/131893832.cms
- [19] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/21/iran-u-s-launch-historic-peace-talks-with-60-day-roadmap?traffic_source=rss
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/israeli-strikes-start-again-in-lebanon-after-several-hour-lull-amid-us-iran-talks
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260621231906eN2
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9AFBVV95cUxOQ0p4dkJLYlNGX3JSMjhGeFJtUXZhZHFvSWhmYXIxblIxTzlqbm5meTJVTS1kVGRBYm5LUzA4NjZxcFdFWHFnVFRTNENLaHZuamJRd01tTmQwcEdyNC1TTDc2Wko2ZWgzdXJqOUxJY3ZrXzE4UldsNUJ0SmplUkJYVXR4cFRGMDJxeE43M0hZbnoySFZ4M0MxMGNHQXJDcUJmR2FyZXVzbDJYbDlXNzRrRm1Dc2VJNU01OXcxS2ZqTFdvWTdoaXE4a2lWX3lRQTM2MjBLTHBDUnhiNld1MHZKWVV5YzZRcE1HMjY5bktTOExrYzRy?oc=5
- [23] https://www.rt.com/news/641945-us-iranian-talks-switzerland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [24] https://www.yahoo.com/news/videos/trump-threatens-iran-over-hezbollah-150657905.html
- [25] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ingredient-needed-pretty-much-food-140000111.html
- [26] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/21/6a37a407e4d4d8a0388b459f.html
2026-06-18
2026-06-18
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：蒙古铜矿出口受阻与俄罗斯汽油短缺问题持续升级，独立于中东大局。
- 蒙古抗议者封锁力拓奥尤陶勒盖铜矿对华出口通道，可能引发铜精矿供应中断（Yahoo News - World）。
- 乌克兰无人机袭击导致俄罗斯炼油厂停工，俄计划海运进口汽油以缓解短缺（Google News - World）。
关键事件
- 蒙古抗议者阻断力拓铜矿对华出口路线（Yahoo News - World）
- 俄罗斯因炼油厂遭袭面临汽油短缺，拟海运进口（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
铜矿事件短期对铜价形成支撑，但需关注蒙古政府调解进展；俄罗斯汽油进口若落实，将加剧全球成品油市场区域分化。
关联路径
蒙古铜矿封锁 / 铜精矿出口受阻 / 铜价上涨
俄罗斯炼油厂停产 / 汽油进口需求增加 / 区域成品油价格分化
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Xinhua World / KBS World News / Al Jazeera Middle East / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / The Hindu / Sky News / RT News / Yonhap News Agency / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202250
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/18/iran-war-live-trump-pezeshkian-sign-mou-to-end-fighting-reopen-hormuz?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642747.shtml
- [4] https://www.dw.com/en/read-us-officials-release-14-point-initial-agreement-to-end-war-with-iran/a-77595563?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [5] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/d28e93fb4ee047b38fef1fd0ee5b19dd/c.html
- [6] https://www.news.cn/world/20260617/cdbbe7893b9146d1916ad79178e95bf8/c.html
- [7] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/protesters-block-copper-exports-china-090335412.html
- [8] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260617-middle-east-live-trump-iran-s-president-sign-deal-to-end-mideast-war
- [9] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE9MMnJvejl3QjRFcno3YnZMX1EtZGotcndHcmRrVEpPUDRQZ08wQmZhLWpHR3lkY3dLejdZSmVHdFFNWllvdGJ6bExfQ183OVkzMmdJYzlqeEtGdw?oc=5
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-confirm-deal-signed-to-end-west-asia-war/article71115548.ece
- [11] https://news.sky.com/story/the-14-point-us-iran-deal-what-is-in-it-13555121
- [12] https://www.rt.com/news/641756-us-iran-memorandum-signed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [13] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000600315
- [14] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/world/europe/trump-iran-school-us-strike-minab.html
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/17/trump-eyes-us-iran-peace-deal-signing?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260618/99cc2a94226f4ec3aa9a880318ccc0d0/c.html
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-18/10642750.shtml
- [18] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260617-trump-has-signed-iran-deal-says-us-official
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxNMTk2dUxGSkc5YkZnMDk1VUo4b1A1WXJpV0RVZ1NJdG1uMFdrVHFoZ0dFOGY3eUNVa3lGSjMzZjQ1OEI5ZXQ0OVd3TFR1bGlXOFh5X2VRZl9ubl91T2hnbWJ3Qi12NFFfS19WVzNkOWk0cHVfdjZwOERBMkUxMVp4bDJkRV9UcWpQQlg2NG84TnZUZ0NqRVFaMkJMYm94czl5cEhUUU9RS19PUUdf?oc=5
- [20] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260617-ce-que-contient-accord-n%C3%A9goci%C3%A9-entre-iran-%C3%A9tats-unis
- [21] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum?traffic_source=rss
- [22] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000552315
- [23] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260618/aa5d53819de2443ebe73c57185490253/c.html
- [24] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260618000500315
2026-06-16
2026-06-16
进展要点
- 轨迹（消退）：历经三个月的中东石油供应危机迎来转折点，但恢复正常供应面临水雷清除、基础设施修复及保险恢复等多重挑战。
- 石油市场已度过危机高峰，供应逐步恢复仍需数周至数月时间。
- 卡塔尔LNG设施受损恢复需3-5年，欧洲能源转型困境尚未缓解。
关键事件
- 石油危机逾三月，恢复正常供应艰难（Le Monde International）
- 霍尔木兹海峡重开协议难解油流恢复需数周（Yahoo News - World）
- 霍尔木兹海峡重开难消航运风险，水雷与高保险费持续（DW (Deutsche Welle)）
关注 / 展望
短期实体供应仍偏紧，但方向性改善明确。市场将从'是否恢复'转向'恢复速度'定价，关注实际油轮通行数据和保险市场变化。
关联路径
海峡重开 / 油轮逐步恢复通行 / 全球原油供应量缓慢回升
水雷未清 / 部分船东犹豫 / 恢复进度慢于预期
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Le Monde International / KBS World News / The New York Times / The Hindu BusinessLine / BBC News (Top) / DW (Deutsche Welle) / n-tv Politik / RT News / ORF.at News / Yahoo News - World / Google News - World / El Mundo - International News / Al Jazeera Middle East / Die Zeit Politics / Der Spiegel International / ANTARA News
参考链接
- [1] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/06/15/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-les-deux-parties-ont-signe-electroniquement-un-accord-cadre-la-reouverture-complete-du-detroit-d-ormuz-attendue-vendredi-selon-donald-trump_6701050_3210.html
- [2] https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=202189
- [3] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/6b796621ba324f6fa00834cd98d939b7/c.html
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641076.shtml
- [5] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/middleeast/shipping-fees-tolls-strait-hormuz.html
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-iran-deal-signed-text-to-be-released-after-friday-signing-trump/article71106353.ece
- [7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8mv6l6eezo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [8] https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deal-when-will-oil-prices-fall/a-77554342?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [9] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Iran-Krieg-zehrt-an-Oel-Reserven-der-USA-id30970249.html
- [10] https://www.rt.com/news/641619-israelis-reacts-with-anger/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [11] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260616/d2673a895828403e9929d0a14a2d68c2/c.html
- [12] https://orf.at/stories/3433405
- [13] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/even-deal-reopen-strait-hormuz-164442179.html
- [14] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQTmNBUHNqN2tJV2czQ1N4WS1lQVptMnFjWVI2VUgwaFRXU0k3eUJ2WEczZFBqb2tWbFp1T2Eyc1pyMFlqVmN5bndfN1dwTDdiRjRZb0VhbXJtcUQxZEpjaGo2eG1vSFE0VFEzU1pvRms3Y2N1VDJKV0ZjRE80Tjg3OU9CeDc5TV9ycW9jdEYxYjFoYldkWkphRmh2SUxVTE1wb1FMd2dSc1lqNjgzOW10azhRclc4WldaaHJDbXFB?oc=5
- [15] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a303ab6e85ece86208b45a3-video.html
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/15/trump-says-iran-deal-all?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-06/oeffnung-strasse-von-hormus-iran-usa-oelpreis-inflation
- [18] https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/iran-krieg-raeumt-die-bundeswehr-bald-minen-in-der-strasse-von-hormus-a-fc77e7a3-e1c1-406f-9885-ad0079f7476a
- [19] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5609591/uni-eropa-dorong-rute-dagang-baru-untuk-hindari-risiko-selat-hormuz
- [20] https://www.news.cn/world/20260616/eb2ba8da6b1e4516bc07b4a7b70ddb3e/c.html
- [21] https://www.news.cn/world/20260615/12ee5330301c47e48b4fc2c927e73a9d/c.html
- [22] https://www.rt.com/news/641641-iran-us-peace-deal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [23] https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2026/06/15/6a3034dae85ece1b5b8b457a.html
- [24] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-16/10641064.shtml
- [25] https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/06/15/petrole-apres-plus-de-trois-mois-d-une-crise-inedite-le-retour-a-la-normale-s-annonce-laborieux_6703244_3234.html
- [26] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-end-shipping-risks/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-world-4025-rdf
- [27] https://orf.at/stories/3433391
- [28] https://www.dw.com/en/strait-of-hormuz-reopening-won-t-restore-normal-prewar-shipping-any-time-soon/a-77553214?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
2026-06-12
2026-06-12
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating then fading）：伊朗宣布无限期关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球20%油气运输中断；但特朗普称协议将导致海峡立即重新开放。
- 伊朗政府宣布无限期关闭霍尔木兹海峡，禁止所有船只通行（Yonhap News TV）。
- 霍尔木兹海峡附近油轮遭袭致3名印度海员死亡，联合国警告全球供应链冲击（Global Issues News）。
关键事件
- 伊朗宣布无限期关闭霍尔木兹海峡（Yonhap News TV）
- 油轮遇袭致三名海员死亡（Global Issues News）
关注 / 展望
海峡实际通行状态仍不明朗，若协议周末签署将迅速开放，否则供应中断风险将持续推高能源价格。
关联路径
海峡关闭 / 石油 / 液化天然气供应削减 / 能源价格飙升
协议签署 / 海峡开放 / 供应风险解除
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Global Issues News / Yonhap News Agency / DW (Deutsche Welle) / The Hindu
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260611/9be8559013a241919a059f958c966859/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612053433nL0
- [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-denies-iran-closed-strait-121236200.html
- [4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-will-be-taking-kharg-island-in-latest-iran-war-threat?traffic_source=rss
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641447-iran-no-final-deal-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/11/43269
- [7] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-12/10638773.shtml
- [8] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000452315
- [9] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-nearly-done/live-77498305?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/govt-alerts-maritime-stakeholders-after-missile-strike-on-tanker-kills-three-indians/article71090376.ece
- [11] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612003008T13
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/11/iran-shuts-hormuz-strait-but-wasnt-it-already-closed?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083357OnR
- [14] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/11/trump-says-us-and-iran-have-reached-a-great?traffic_source=rss
- [15] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-great-settlement-iran-195219669.html
- [16] https://www.rt.com/news/641439-us-iran-war-escalation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000451315
- [18] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260612000400315
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612083224dwc
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612075819ufq
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612072757xGF
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612064752PB2
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120656350XJ
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606120630438Uf
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612061022aOi
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260612060952ESe
- [27] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606120611227Xu
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260612045638FUx
2026-06-11
2026-06-11
进展要点
- 轨迹（Escalating）：伊朗革命卫队6月6日警告“若挑衅持续将完全封锁”，6月11日伊朗军方正式宣布对所有船只关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
- 伊朗哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部声明海峡立即关闭，威胁攻击任何试图通过的船只。
- 两艘“违规船只”在霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗火力攻击，船员失踪。
关键事件
- 伊朗武装部队宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡（China News Service）
- 伊朗媒体称两艘违规船只被击中（Yonhap News TV）
- 美防长赫格塞斯称美国已确保海峡石油运输数周（RT News）
关注 / 展望
霍尔木兹海峡实际通行完全停滞，短期恢复可能性极低；关注美国护航行动能否恢复部分通行，但冲突升级下风险溢价将维持高位。
关联路径
霍尔木兹封锁 / 全球石油 / 天然气供应缺口 / 能源价格持续冲高
能源价格 / 输入性通胀 / 美联储加息预期强化
来源
China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / RT News / The Hindu BusinessLine / Google News - World / The Hindu / The New York Times / DW (Deutsche Welle) / BBC News (Top)
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638043.shtml
- [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/11/iran-war-live-us-launches-attacks-on-multiple-iranian-targets?traffic_source=rss
- [3] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611084354pSC
- [4] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-erklaert-strasse-von-hormus-fuer-komplett-gesperrt-a-00d939ee-993a-4e9f-9537-2d21b352e7d0
- [5] https://www.rt.com/news/641370-we-will-be-hitting-iran-hard-us-israel-live/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [6] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-inflation-climbs-to-42-and-hits-3-year-high-amid-rising-fuel-costs/article71087119.ece
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxQMlVZcWtvYWxjTXM5VUY5bTNJeXJpZW1YYWlNMmZRckNEbXFWQ1pUWkwwcmVkd3RrZk92TkxDYnlMTENxUzkwUnVSLV9selNvcHNoTkV5LUFjVHJFcE96NlBfY19ZdTlLMHdkWlBCcEJaaDRGY0d2SFZoQjlmeHBJa2VCbw?oc=5
- [8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-iran-strikes-in-latest-escalation-after-trump-threat/article71086716.ece
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/briefing/inflation-rises-us-iran-strikes.html
- [10] https://www.dw.com/en/the-united-states-says-it-has-launched-new-attacks-on-iran/live-77482934?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyp9v0e93o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [12] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/us-bombs-iran-after-trump-threat-tehran-closes-hormuz-strait-to-all-ships?traffic_source=rss
- [13] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083243ePh
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611074943nbX
- [15] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/10/trumps-claim-of-escorting-oil-through-hormuz-wont-ease-crisis?traffic_source=rss
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638048.shtml
- [17] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638047.shtml
- [18] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-military-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-as-trump-warns-of-further-escalation/article71086729.ece
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOeU9xcGJfcHRNQ3RydDNXbjc1NXFQbkdId2hlVnVYamxWWV9YRkdKc2lGby1mdEtNWV9INXJQNkUzcUladkRFaDJaZnBUdWM0blVIcW5PdVZDOFlNdXJrWlJxWDJLb0hxTjJ4WnhadThWOGpPU2JzYml4am0tdVNDWlJTQ29uaThhTUlmdDltSjNKVXk2Vm9LbFJTZDhXOHdRcTNxWjZjZUZaWkFGeHBRaXVrNNIBuAFBVV95cUxON1hwLVN2elBTdDJNVnZ2a0hrdVAzRFVpeThuVk9UUFIzbnVoZDFxLTJFaUFqZmJVUlM3Mm11YXBMU1lpQW9VUWQ0TUhFZEVqWll3WXFYSXRSLWJIUVQwUmJGd2FGMExmSXlOX3QtckFJNWtPb3FXTkZON2RxZ3FlR0VseGV6ZjVfTFRqdnA4US1ESWIwdGVpd0lPVFpEVkV
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611074512DCp
- [21] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611055621CJT
- [22] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611083656yBs
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611083343fdH
- [24] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260611080507D7r
- [25] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075216ChH
- [26] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611075628bE7
- [27] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-11/10638040.shtml
- [28] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260611072514X05
2026-06-09
2026-06-09
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：俄罗斯关键石油出口枢纽发生大火，该枢纽处理俄约20%海运出口，可能影响全球原油供应。
- 俄罗斯官方首次公开承认乌克兰袭击致国内燃料供应紧张，部分地区汽油受限。
关键事件
- 俄罗斯关键石油出口枢纽大火，影响20%海运量（Google News - World）
- 俄承认乌袭击致燃料供应紧张（Der Spiegel International）
关注 / 展望
俄油出口能力若持续受损，将加剧全球原油市场紧张，叠加中东风险，油价波动率料维持高位。
关联路径
俄罗斯油港大火 / 原油出口减少 / 全球供应缺口
乌克兰袭击俄炼油设施 / 成品油短缺 / 欧洲柴油价差扩大
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Yonhap News TV / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / Yahoo News - World / Times of India / Google News - World / ANTARA News / The New York Times / France 24 #2 / BBC News (Top) / RT News / BBC News (Business) / Nikkei Asia
参考链接
- [1] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/48cf8214183e487fa6949cf36219116b/c.html
- [2] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609084029HkV
- [3] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/moskau-gibt-kraftstoff-probleme-infolge-ukrainischer-angriffe-zu-a-07c27dcb-5d20-4b2c-a8e0-c440c4866331
- [4] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-09/10636642.shtml
- [5] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/8/we-basically-lost-tel-aviv-residents-react-after-israel-iran-strikes?traffic_source=rss
- [6] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-live-updates-israel-iran-070956663.html
- [7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-warplane-strikes-disables-oil-tanker-near-oman-crew-of-24-indians-evacuated/articleshow/131592749.cms
- [8] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxQRG9kN3ZOb251SzM2VWFCMXJlU3ZPZ1l2LXVMamVqSWFRclhBWkZHMDgwcy1xazR5eFU3eUJ5RXB3LUdkUGc3aEVqTHo4a3JSUWpyNk1YTGRVRzdtTTdvSHB5WGpIWUltbE1iVTNiWHdvT3VKay1nY3ZfZE1BLUx4dkFQaTJmd2NObXg2WGc3Q1B4cDFrWC1r?oc=5
- [9] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599773/as-tidak-cegat-serangan-rudal-iran-yang-gempur-israel
- [10] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-regional-gains.html
- [11] https://www.france24.com/en/israel-shuts-down-following-war-flare-up-with-iran
- [12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly72ryrd1jo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/641249-european-drivers-cutting-fuel-consumption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78yd5g9qx0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-trends/global-airline-profits-projected-to-drop-by-half-as-jet-fuel-costs-soar
- [16] https://www.news.cn/world/20260609/1243130a3f5b4244b8e43fed8a562beb/c.html
- [17] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260609074142ueB
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260609060044fJp
- [19] https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-krieg-raketenbeschuss-trotz-waffenruhe-israel-reagiert-mit-gegenschlaegen-a-ef5e386c-ae72-45c3-8ad6-535a292d461f
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5599555/iran-hentikan-serangan-ke-israel-akan-gempur-jika-lebanon-dibom-lagi
- [21] https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/hormuz-strait-open-transit-fees-043554515.html
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-energy-oil.html
- [23] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE9aM0R6U0lzaTQ1OXFzRmNlNW9mc3JNSUEyTnloZWM3WGNmNktVVzAtR3lROHJNQ1d6dHo4cV8zVVFycUNlUWJoQ3FmNA?oc=5
- [24] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/8/eu-planning-to-add-to-1-5-trillion-sanctions-hit-on-russia?traffic_source=rss
2026-06-08
2026-06-08
进展要点
- 轨迹（Fading）：OPEC+已累计四次增产，但霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭且伊朗开始对通过船只征收高额通行费，供应缺口仍在扩大。
- OPEC+决定自霍尔木兹关闭以来第四次提高石油产量配额，以应对全球有史以来最大供应危机。
- 伊朗开始对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收每艘150-200万美元通行费，进一步抬高能源运输成本。
- 伊朗战争百日僵局：冲突已持续超过100天，造成超7000人死亡，海峡近乎关闭导致油价长期高位。
关键事件
- OPEC+第四次增产配额（The Hindu BusinessLine报道）
- 伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡过往船只征收通行费（Yonhap News TV报道）
- 伊朗战争百日，海峡近乎关闭（France 24 #2报道）
关注 / 展望
OPEC+增产空间有限，且伊朗通行费政策与潜在反击行动可能进一步削减实际供应量。关注美国是否批准以色列打击伊朗能源设施，以及沙特等产油国能否填补缺口。
关联路径
霍尔木兹海峡关闭 + 伊朗通行费 / 全球原油运输成本飙升 / 成品油及化工品涨价 / 输入性通胀
OPEC+增产效果被地缘风险抵消 / 原油库存持续下降 / 油价维持高位震荡
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Al Jazeera Middle East / RT News / Die Zeit Politics / The Hindu BusinessLine / France 24 #2 / Google News - World / Yonhap News TV / BBC News (Top) / Times of India / DW (Deutsche Welle) / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/7/iran-fires-missiles-at-israel-after-it-attacked-beirut?traffic_source=rss
- [2] https://www.rt.com/news/641154-iran-israel-missile-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [3] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/iran-feuert-raketen-auf-israel
- [4] https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/opec-decides-on-fourth-oil-quota-hike-since-hormuz-closure/article71073904.ece
- [5] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260607-iran-war-100-days
- [6] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiVEFVX3lxTE0xV3g2OWxXcVhxUjZOZUpZVThPSXNkbW1lcjdqaU5KRkctWHBwRTNOSWp1dy1zSE8xNHpUU1ZpRGVKMm5qVTBJMEx2Znp3d1pUaGcwVg?oc=5
- [7] https://www.news.cn/world/20260607/715b2f909cae4f0e80d03dee28820905/c.html
- [8] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608084043ZXF
- [9] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl3gx9y32o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [10] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635998.shtml
- [11] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-11-missiles-at-israel-in-first-attack-since-april-truce-regional-airspace-restrictions-widen/articleshow/131574138.cms
- [12] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-closes-airspace-after-warning-attacks-against-israel/live-77442602?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/8/iran-war-live-trump-urges-restraint-after-iranian-missile-attack-on-israel?traffic_source=rss
- [14] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260608081102Fc9
- [15] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH202606080752231NC
- [16] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-08/10635991.shtml
- [17] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE4yaFRvZG5JOHJaV2ZsSllxcUx6WG9HSEdWVC1sQlVDZlRIUmxxb18xVWNmOEZCd0xKa3lraG80ZGw4NnVHcE5vODRwZzVNVkV4V3JscldjQUt0dU9zQ2swZjExcG9IR2E2dG5hb29HekFnYV8x?oc=5
- [18] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/quotable/2026/6/7/irans-attack-on-israel-aims-to-restore-deterrence-but-avoid-return-to-war?traffic_source=rss
- [19] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260607-isra%C3%ABl-cibl%C3%A9-par-des-tirs-de-missiles-iraniens-les-premiers-depuis-le-cessez-le-feu
- [20] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260607-iran-launches-missiles-at-israel-in-first-bombardment-since-fragile-ceasefire
- [21] https://www.zeit.de/news/2026-06/07/rundfunk-iran-meldet-zwei-raketensalven-auf-israel
2026-06-04
2026-06-04
进展要点
- 轨迹（升级）：乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设施持续袭击，导致俄约40%炼油产能离线，莫斯科及北部地区加油站开始实施燃油配给，全国性短缺蔓延。
关键事件
- 莫斯科及俄北部加油站实施燃油配给（Google News - World）
关注 / 展望
若乌克兰继续打击俄炼厂，俄罗斯国内燃油危机可能加剧，并进一步推高国际成品油裂解价差，关注俄方是否反制。
关联路径
乌克兰袭击炼厂 / 俄罗斯炼能下降 / 成品油供应短缺
来源
Xinhua World / China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yonhap News TV / Yahoo News - World / Al Jazeera Middle East / JETRO Business News / France 24 #2 / Global Issues News / The New York Times / Google News - World / RT News / ABC News / DW (Deutsche Welle) / Times of India
参考链接
- [1] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR202606040527043L3
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz-in-gulf-flare-up-163028785.html
- [3] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-and-bahrain-attacked-as-iran-launches-missile-and-drone-barrage?traffic_source=rss
- [4] https://www.news.cn/world/20260604/5911e51f489f4127b93e816da4c3cb94/c.html
- [5] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/cd5a74e6bbd7f913.html
- [6] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260603-iran-says-no-tangible-progress-in-war-talks-trump-says-deal-close
- [7] https://www.globalissues.org/news/2026/06/03/43198
- [8] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/06-04/10633942.shtml
- [9] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/us/house-russia-ukraine-sanctions-aid.html
- [10] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPSlpZSWlVS1B3RlpKRm5DcjZDc0pKMnBLM2x6NG9UWlM5THVxaksyZ2o2MDRtQjFXcEl5SE1aaTNrZHhiNF9ibUp2WHItTkZmSVFDZW9USDMtTTIxREJoMXZhNVNMdFhocU9RT2ZYd3gtSlJ6RjRmc3Fway1nWDVxNlZNelBMYnlBcUVQaEtGc3pKNlh4SmU3WkM2VzBHRk5DdVJjNmg5TGZaZXZYLUZkVzZqWGIyQ28?oc=5
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640941-gulf-airport-devastate-patriot-us/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-admin-proposes-broad-new-tariffs-top-trading/story?id=133552819
- [13] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260603/0c63de9689184545b5a5ad992cdd15de/c.html
- [14] https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-and-russia-draw-closer-amid-opec-upheaval/a-77387950?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
- [15] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/us-moots-12-5-tariff-on-india-53-others-over-forced-labour/articleshow/131494315.cms
- [16] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-releases-cctv-footage-of-deadly-iranian-strike-on-airport?traffic_source=rss
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/3/kuwait-labels-iran-attack-heinous?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604055025eGh
- [19] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260604054336IBQ
- [20] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitwFBVV95cUxPcV9YT3A5dzhhTjBwYTZtM0tQc1JGZkhSZl9JY0FFSWV3eUtxNU1oMHNHQ3piS1VxTnJMb1hwOWJDZ2gwc05BdHFJX1k4ZTI2OE5qUzhoRmJYVWZBZ3lpV3FhVnA2S0s2WklWa3dGczFnRXFmRFpGbUxFTTNlMjFuMlBSM0ljM3hNX21TdzI1SHRxUzJRUVEyM2RSQ054ZERXdWJCc25NXzU1VFpjWmpHSXpoRDZldlk?oc=5
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxQZWtvZ043SmhSOWZFck94VFJscTREUzlfYzZWQUVnWGdDM0V4ZzVXeTZJOUk4ZzN1RWZRWWY1cm5JWkkzNC1lUVM4WEtDMWQ2aHVYNXI3Tk1nZDlGcTdvUHJ0alBGM01kT0xhQXoyNnpLM3loQllhQjJ3N0FaSzFEeg?oc=5
- [22] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html
- [23] https://www.france24.com/en/trump-denies-impasse-in-iran-talks-after-fresh-strikes-on-gulf-countries
- [24] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260603-iranian-revolutionary-guards-claim-attacks-on-bahrain-and-kuwait
- [25] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/briefing/state-of-iran-war.html
- [26] https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/06/f36904fae0a30fb3.html
2026-05-25
2026-05-25
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：霍尔木兹航运中断致约1500-2000艘船舶被困，重开时间不确定，但和谈进展提供缓释预期。
- 霍尔木兹海峡重开前景仍不明，大量船舶积压待清理。（NYT）
关键事件
- 约1500-2000艘船舶困于波斯湾 - NYT
- 重开时间取决于美伊协议进度 - NYT
关注 / 展望
海峡通航恢复需清理水雷及协调通行方案，预计至少1-2个月才能恢复正常。短期能源运输瓶颈难解，油轮运费维持高位。
关联路径
船舶积压 / 油轮运力冻结 / 运费上涨 / 能源到岸成本上升
重开推迟 / 供应链瓶颈持续 / 新兴经济体进口压力增大
来源
Xinhua World / Nikkei Asia / The New York Times / BBC News (Business) / Yonhap News TV / France 24 #3 / ANTARA News Jawa Timur / Google News - World / BBC News (Top) / The Hindu / Yahoo News - World / ANTARA News Agency / Times of India / RT News / France 24 #2
参考链接
- [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/global-oil-inventories-to-fall-below-100-days-of-demand-on-hormuz-blockade
- [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran.html
- [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c809m7g29r7o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [4] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525084834QL4
- [5] https://www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9o/20260524-guerre-au-moyen-orient-que-contient-le-protocole-d-accord-entre-les-%C3%A9tats-unis-et-l-iran
- [6] https://jatim.antaranews.com/berita/1068257/as-klaim-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [7] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQSjd6U1BqRl9fdVNBbmdTc292V29zNW04b0RWQXBZRXZqeFlnYm1DMDlYeGRUTFVBWEhWbTFUYTVRcHJWNWxvMUoyc0RNcldDZDJCalpJMW5vUkZKTnNGT3ZEdFpWcmRHcFdWYkdFRF9NRHhUb3B6QzQ2b2s2aFRKeEln?oc=5
- [8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp0040x7po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [9] https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-us-ends-russia-oil-waiver-implications-for-india/article71018329.ece
- [10] https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/u-prepares-military-strikes-against-221519788.html
- [11] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580861/as-klaim-ada-kemajuan-soal-pembukaan-selat-hormuz-tanpa-pungutan
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/mission-unaccomplished-trumps-gulf-gamble-runs-aground-as-iran-survives-american-assault/articleshow/131293549.cms
- [13] https://www.rt.com/news/640508-us-iran-deal-hormuz/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [14] https://www.news.cn/world/20260524/fa65dd01d6d84218bb140866f8c9620f/c.html
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/strait-of-hormuz-reopen-iran-deal.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260524-time-is-on-our-side-trump-tempers-expectations-of-a-peace-deal-with-iran
- [17] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/world/middleeast/senate-republicans-iran-deal-trump.html
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/AKR20260525034445NmC
- [19] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBnMHpHTWRhQmlPMGIzMVV4NHYxYU9NMDlabVZvM050d3Fxc3E1ZkpuM0xFbS1tVUI2bW5iSjFRd2o3YmQ4M1NqcWw5VnI1Tjh3MHNlZ0duamNTTkE2TlpvS19UZEZLTWhwd2VIQUZVMDBqNnU1YXBDbtIBfkFVX3lxTE9WOWxkT3BiVzFPVlRQQkpTQlljMkZQNU5TSVRfLXF4cWVFRXRlbzhlSHpkcHczcHgydjB6N3RvMW16b3NsVHl3bEw3UC03QjBUdHlZOWRyaWV3MWRKYjNmTXg2bWpZSlJ3Q0hRVjRJaEU5MTFHOUdUWGlMVWxiQQ?oc=5
- [20] https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5580831/trump-as-pertahankan-blokade-laut-sampai-iran-teken-kesepakatan-damai
- [21] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxPM2xoYUpMYWxuUzQ4aWQzaTF4d1RVYjBGUHVfMnhldHpQcXRTVFpvWk1uS2NSRWhHeUFocWxicExGYVhpcG9qOUZ2MmhMU2FCLVJfMkl3WE1xb0ozSWZEMW5HUS1FTWhwUTJ0eDZMT0xNRUVIc1pLSWRsZTNfeXZ2Q2tlOVktQlhFVW96czhxZ3BPTzZzVWtsNC1SN2MwWWR5cDFOWlIwZG1NSWRFdzVqZUhndUYzRzNjLU9Zam5R0gHDAUFVX3lxTE9HdUVDc04tX2pUWl92M3U4Z295cW5maThrNktoN0ZVaFpjN2prRWRtWUZvRjhFXy1CNWVzR2k1bHBKZThTZlJSbVR2VmVwQWd6UWZiSldjaTFfLWNULUFraElGdmFZMDAzb0J2d2xEdUdtaDYyUE0zQU00NVNvU1JQQU5BZmZFMk1ERkd1Z180eV8zMm5
- [22] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-turnaround-open-the-straits-close-the-war/articleshow/131293243.cms
- [23] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260525090851EoQ
- [24] https://www.rt.com/news/640524-trump-iran-deal-losers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
2026-05-23
2026-05-23
进展要点
- 轨迹（稳定）：虽然中国煤矿事故造成伤亡，但属局部事件，对全球供应链影响有限。
- 中国山西长治煤矿事故致4死90人被困，救援进行中。（Sky News, ABC News）
关键事件
- 山西煤矿事故致4死90人被困（ABC News）
关注 / 展望
该事故可能推升国内煤炭短期价格，但整体影响可控，需关注后续监管收紧是否影响产量。
关联路径
煤矿事故 / 供应中断预期 / 煤炭价格短期支撑
来源
China News Service / Xinhua Finance / Yahoo News - World / France 24 #2 / Fed / Google News - World / Der Spiegel International / Al Jazeera Middle East / ABC News / Yonhap News TV / RT News / Times of India / Sky News / BBC News (Business) / The New York Times / France 24 #3
参考链接
- [1] https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/05-23/10626977.shtml
- [2] https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/irans-intensified-closure-strait-hormuz-150534298.html
- [3] https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260522-rubio-urges-more-support-from-nato-allies-help-end-iran-war-mediation-talks-begin
- [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm
- [5] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikwFBVV95cUxNenRXUWhkWi05T2JSVHQ4WTY0TTVLcmlWSXZ0cENoNEpTamhHcHRRZG1BVzJ2ZFJvYmhLTXEwZUhtdmJTN01CdDBwUnZqT1lMaGhrOUp2QncyZjhsTzhNWjJoMGVPaW5lYkRFQ1ZvSVVFLTdjRHJtZlFsbHd1SFM3N2JvekxPOGNJZHZURmFaNUNCeFU?oc=5
- [6] https://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20260523/4f110ca2c5c849be9f9bb086feab17ef/c.html
- [7] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kevin-warsh-neuer-fed-chef-im-weissen-haus-vereidigt-a-268dae4a-6f36-452f-9e07-f8f1c3f9056c
- [8] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair?traffic_source=rss
- [9] https://abcnews.com/US/gas-prices-highest-level-4-years-ahead-memorial/story?id=133219781
- [10] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523003218bkx
- [11] https://www.rt.com/news/640454-trump-plans-change-wedding-iran/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
- [12] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-steps-up-dollar-sales-to-53-billion-to-defend-rupee-in-fy26/articleshow/131270439.cms
- [13] https://news.sky.com/story/china-four-killed-and-90-trapped-following-coal-mine-accident-13547200
- [14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz311dq3ko?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
- [15] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/world/middleeast/iran-ceasefire-us-qatar-pakistan.html
- [16] https://www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9missions/la-semaine-de-l-%C3%A9co/20260522-choc-p%C3%A9trolier-vs-d%C3%A9ficit-l-impossible-%C3%A9quation
- [17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/economic-confidence-plummets-in-us-amid-iran-war-poll-shows?traffic_source=rss
- [18] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523085743BMb
- [19] https://abcnews.com/International/4-dead-90-trapped-coal-mine-accident-northern/story?id=133238116
- [20] https://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/news/MYH20260523084301zk1
- [21] https://www.france24.com/fr/moyen-orient/20260522-guerre-au-moyen-orient-un-m%C3%A9diateur-pakistanais-%C3%A0-t%C3%A9h%C3%A9ran-des-n%C3%A9gociations-dans-l-impasse
- [22] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxOdVlHX1dTNEdZNEY1N3VuRDVvR051UFpTem9kNlloY1NiOW9yRVBCUWtUUUJXcW12VWFWbGs5YzlyV2dWWE9FRkIwblhuZFBqaVhKNzhIVnk5R2VSaTRZZ2FjTXRaaWp5UEdhTGhEN3RvOVoyQ29HR29UeDJTWXk2MU83MDB4UQ?oc=5
- [23] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/pakistans-army-chief-in-iran-as-uss-rubio-says-slight-progress-in-talks?traffic_source=rss
- [24] https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxQQThBMGFCbXlrNFNIbHFpT2ZvTWNFMDFvMVI4ekMxTTBiZURGczRvR29KMWFiZVFmUWoxQ013ajNkZlNUYk9jYURmcHN1bnpqM0JheW9GQ3pubTYyWWtDdW1HWEFKYzE5bE5PMG9yZTJDd20tTVNQNXp4RlRXLU0yVVJodVo3VmRTVTN3TkhjWUxicnRqZVlSNVU1WDZhVFVwYzZSaGN0dnBjbDRSSmhRam9sb0VscWh5anljZXR3YVZYVHZmcXVyMw?oc=5
- [25] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/warning-shot-from-iran-uae-nuclear-plant-attack-from-iraq-sparks-fears-of-wider-gulf-war-as-tehrans-proxies-step-in/articleshow/131264706.cms