EIA上调天然气价格预测，严寒天气推高取暖需求

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EIA Press Release (02/10/2026): EIA raises natural gas price forecast following increased heating demand amid severe winter weather Skip to sub-navigation U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis Menu Sources & Uses Topics Geography Tools Education News Sources & Uses Topics Geography Tools Education News Petroleum & Other Liquids Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Weekly Petroleum Status Report Natural Gas Exploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report › Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Supplement Electricity Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Electric Power Monthly Electricity Data Browser Consumption & Efficiency Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. 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The drawdown for the week ending January 30 was the largest weekly net withdrawal recorded in the history of EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report . In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now forecasts U.S. natural gas inventories to end the withdrawal season in late March at less than 1.9 trillion cubic feet. This is 8% below previous forecasts, prompting the forecast for the Henry Hub spot price for February and March to be 40% higher than last month’s STEO. "Winter Storm Fern caused significant short-term pressure on natural gas markets, but we expect higher prices in the near term will increase drilling, resulting in higher production later this year and helping to replenish storage," said EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey. "Ultimately, this will result in lower natural gas prices next year than we had forecast. Our updated forecast anticipates Henry Hub prices will average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.40/MMBtu in 2027, 5% lower than our January forecast." Other key takeaways from the February STEO are below. U.S. energy market indicators 2025 2026 2027 Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) $69 $58 $53 Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) $3.10 $2.91 $2.93 U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) 13.6 13.6 13.3 Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) $3.53 $4.31 $4.38 U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) 15 16 18 Shares of U.S. electricity generation Natural gas 40% 40% 39% Coal 17% 16% 15% Nuclear 18% 18% 18% Conventional hydropower 6% 6% 6% Wind 11% 11% 12% Solar 7% 8% 9% Other energy sources 1% 1% 1% U.S. GDP (percentage change) 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% U.S. CO 2 emissions (billion metric tons) 4.9 4.8 4.8 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2026 Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. Venezuela: The evolving situation in Venezuela remains a key uncertainty in our forecast for oil production and exports. In January, Venezuela’s crude oil exports began to recover following December’s oil blockade and sanctions, as trading companies received general licenses to transport Venezuela’s oil, according to industry reports. Much of this oil was moved to Caribbean storage terminals. Expanded U.S. licenses are expected to restore production to pre-blockade activity by mid-2026. Global oil prices: The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel (b) in January, the highest since September 2025. Prices rose because of weather-related disruptions and escalating tensions with Iran. EIA expects these factors to be short term and forecasts oil prices to decline in 2026 as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, leading to higher oil inventories. Global inventories are expected to continue increasing at a slower pace in 2027. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $58/b in 2026 and $53/b in 2027. Natural gas production: Severe winter weather across the United States led to a 3% decline in U.S. natural gas production from December to January. However, EIA expects most of this production to be back online in early February. By the second half of 2026, EIA expects production to increase as new pipeline capacity comes online in the Permian Basin and producers raise drilling activity in response to higher prices earlier in the year. Overall, U.S. dry natural gas production in the forecast increases by 2% in 2026 and by 1% in 2027. Electricity generation: Higher electricity demand in the forecast reflects increased economic activity and growth in data centers, primarily in Texas and the mid-Atlantic regions. EIA expects that most of this demand will be met by increased renewable electricity generation. Coal markets: EIA raised the forecast for total U.S. coal consumption after coal-fired power plants increased generation to meet peak electricity demand during recent cold weather. In January, power plants in the United States used 43 million short tons of coal, which is 10% higher than estimated in the January STEO. This increase was supported by a 7% rise in U.S. electricity consumption from December to January. EIA completed STEO modeling and analysis for this report on February 5, 2026, and therefore this month’s STEO report does not include the Petroleum Supply Monthly or Natural Gas Monthly data published on February 6, 2026. The full February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website . The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies. EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov EIA Press Contact: Morgan Butterfield, EIAMedia@eia.gov About EIA Open Data Press Room Contact Us U.S. Energy Information Administration 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Sources & Uses Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Renewable Nuclear Electricity Consumption Total Energy Topics Analysis & Projections Environment Markets & Finance Energy Disruptions Today in Energy Geography States Countries Maps Tools A-Z Index All Reports & Publications Data Tools, Apps, and Maps EIA Survey Forms EIA Beta Open Source Code Policies Privacy/Security Copyright & Reuse Accessibility Information Quality Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Learn about the Department of Energy’s Vulnerability Disclosure Program Related Sites U.S. Department of Energy USA.gov Stay Connected Facebook X Youtube Flickr LinkedIn Email Updates RSS Feeds

Extracted Facts (event_facts)

{
  "translated_title": "EIA上调天然气价格预测，严寒天气推高取暖需求",
  "theme": "Energy Geopolitics",
  "event_type": "politics",
  "commodity_sector": "",
  "summary": "美国能源信息署（EIA）因严寒天气导致取暖需求增加，上调了天然气价格预测，并指出短期价格压力将刺激生产，长期价格预期下调。",
  "key_facts": [
    "EIA上调天然气价格预测，原因是严寒天气增加了取暖需求，减少了生产，并导致创纪录的库存提取。",
    "1月天然气价格平均为每百万英热单位7.72美元，受冬季风暴Fern影响。",
    "EIA预测美国天然气库存将在3月底低于1.9万亿立方英尺，比先前预测低8%。",
    "Henry Hub现货价格2月和3月预测比上月STEO高40%。",
    "EIA预计2026年Henry Hub价格平均为4.30美元/MMBtu，2027年为4.40美元/MMBtu，比1月预测低5%。",
    "EIA预测2026年布伦特原油价格平均为58美元/桶，2027年为53美元/桶。",
    "EIA预计2026年美国干天然气产量增长2%，2027年增长1%。",
    "EIA上调了美国煤炭消费预测，因燃煤电厂在寒冷天气中增加发电以满足峰值电力需求。"
  ],
  "mentioned_commodities": [],
  "data_points": [
    {
      "name": "1月天然气平均价格",
      "value": 7.72,
      "unit": "美元/MMBtu",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "受冬季风暴Fern影响"
    },
    {
      "name": "3月底天然气库存预测",
      "value": 1.9,
      "unit": "万亿立方英尺",
      "direction": "down",
      "context": "比先前预测低8%"
    },
    {
      "name": "Henry Hub现货价格2月和3月预测变化",
      "value": 40,
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "比上月STEO高"
    },
    {
      "name": "2026年Henry Hub价格预测",
      "value": 4.3,
      "unit": "美元/MMBtu",
      "direction": "down",
      "context": "比1月预测低5%"
    },
    {
      "name": "2027年Henry Hub价格预测",
      "value": 4.4,
      "unit": "美元/MMBtu",
      "direction": "down",
      "context": "比1月预测低5%"
    },
    {
      "name": "2026年布伦特原油价格预测",
      "value": 58,
      "unit": "美元/桶",
      "direction": "down",
      "context": "EIA预测"
    },
    {
      "name": "2027年布伦特原油价格预测",
      "value": 53,
      "unit": "美元/桶",
      "direction": "down",
      "context": "EIA预测"
    },
    {
      "name": "2026年美国干天然气产量增长",
      "value": 2,
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "EIA预测"
    },
    {
      "name": "2027年美国干天然气产量增长",
      "value": 1,
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "EIA预测"
    },
    {
      "name": "1月美国煤炭消费量",
      "value": 43,
      "unit": "百万短吨",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "比1月STEO估计高10%"
    },
    {
      "name": "12月至1月美国电力消费增长",
      "value": 7,
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "up",
      "context": "支持煤炭消费增加"
    }
  ],
  "uncertainty_notes": [
    "报告未提供天然气库存提取的具体数值或历史比较数据。",
    "未明确说明冬季风暴Fern对天然气市场的具体影响持续时间。",
    "未详细解释油价预测下降的具体原因，如全球供需平衡细节。",
    "报告基于2月5日完成建模，未包含2月6日发布的月度数据，可能影响预测准确性。"
  ]
}

Politics Refiner