俄罗斯学者卡加诺夫：欧盟仅畏惧威慑，西方精英将欧洲推向灾难

Content (stored)

<p><strong>Western Europe’s elite are driving the continent toward catastrophe</strong></p>
            
                        
            <p><em><strong>NOTE</strong>: What follows is an abridged extract from a longer polemical essay by Sergey Karaganov published in the Russian foreign-policy journal <a href="https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/mittelshpil-karaganov/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Russia in Global Affairs</a>.</em></p>
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<p>The current phase of the West&rsquo;s conflict with Russia may be nearing its end. It has dragged on longer than necessary. The principal reason is a lack of determination to employ active nuclear deterrence. This is the only mechanism capable of resolving the <em>&ldquo;European problem,&rdquo;</em> which has once again become an existential threat to our country.</p>
<p>The Ukraine military operation has acted as a powerful catalyst for Russia&rsquo;s internal renewal. It has mobilized society, awakened patriotism, and allowed people to demonstrate their best qualities. Pride in the Fatherland and respect for service to it have grown. Engineering, science, the military profession, and skilled labor have regained their rightful status. The economy and science have revived. Teachers, regrettably, have not yet received similar recognition, but that is a subject for later.</p>
<p>By drawing Western hostility onto ourselves, we have seriously weakened the position of the comprador bourgeoisie and its Western-educated allies. The Portuguese once used the word compadres to describe local merchants who served colonial interests. After the reforms of the 1990s, this class expanded in Russia to unhealthy proportions. Fortunately, the process of cleansing the country of this Western-oriented stratum has begun. It has been achieved without mass repression, but with historical inevitability.</p>
<p>This revival has come at a terrible cost. Tens of thousands of brave soldiers lost their lives at the opening stage of national recovery. They deserve eternal gratitude. When&nbsp;&ndash; or rather, if&nbsp;&ndash; the unfinished war resumes, such losses must not be repeated.</p>

            
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            <img alt="The 62nd Munich Security Conference, February 13, 2026, Munich, Germany" src="https://mf.b37mrtl.ru/files/2026.02/thumbnail/69935e6520302773b5752e5b.jpg" />
            <figcaption><a href="https://www.rt.com/news/632629-war-party-takes-munich/">The war party takes Munich</a></figcaption>
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<p>In 2013, I personally warned a group of Western European leaders that their policy of dragging Ukraine into the EU and NATO would lead to war and mass casualties. No one met my gaze. They looked down at their shoes, then continued talking about democracy, trust, and human rights. In reality, they wanted to exploit another forty million people. Something they have partly succeeded in achieving through the creation of millions of refugees.</p>
<p>They spoke of containing Russia, which was still loyal at the time. Our response to NATO&rsquo;s aggression in Libya in 2011 was weak. We are now paying for years of appeasement and the comprador instincts of part of our elite.</p>
<p>Russia briefly slowed down the EU&rsquo;s march toward military adventurism by returning Crimea in 2014 and intervening in Syria in 2015. Then we relaxed. Had an ultimatum on NATO expansion been issued in 2018&ndash;2020 and backed by credible nuclear deterrence, the current war might have been avoided. Or at the very least it would have been far less bloody. By 2022, it was obvious that both the West and the Kiev authorities were preparing for war.</p>
<p>Ukraine is not a homogeneous entity. In the east and south live people culturally close to us. West of the Dnieper lies a different historical and cultural community, shaped by Austro-Hungarian, Polish, and Western influence and infused for decades with anti-Russian ideology. We must accept this reality and pursue a rational separation from both Ukrainian and European pathologies, forging our own healthy model of development.</p>
<p>Militarily, we are winning. Politically, we have yet to respond adequately to a series of openly aggressive actions: pirate seizures of Russian vessels, threats to close straits, attempts to impose a de facto economic blockade, attacks on oil terminals, and efforts by the Kiev regime to sabotage our tankers. Often with Western European connivance.</p>
<p>Our response so far has been intensified strikes on Ukrainian targets. This is not a strategic solution. Ukraine was deliberately thrown into the furnace so that the fire would spread to Russia. EU elites do not care about Ukrainians. The conflict will continue until its true source is addressed: Western Europe&rsquo;s degenerated ruling classes, intellectually, morally, and materially exhausted, who cling to power by fueling war.</p>

            
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            <img alt="RT" src="https://mf.b37mrtl.ru/files/2026.02/thumbnail/698f699485f540242340df5c.jpg" />
            <figcaption><a href="https://www.rt.com/news/632347-fyodor-lukyanov-spirit-of-anchorage/">Fyodor Lukyanov: The US wants a deal. Russia wants a system</a></figcaption>
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<p>Unlike 1812&ndash;1815 or 1941&ndash;1945, we have not yet destroyed a hostile coalition or broken its will. The war has entered what chess players call the middle-game. The remnants of Ukraine, supported by the West, will continue sabotage and terrorism. Sanctions will remain. The EU is preparing for a new confrontation, potentially involving rearmed Ukrainian forces and mercenaries from poorer European states.</p>
<p>Any violations of future agreements will require military responses. We will again be accused of aggression. Open conflict will likely resume.</p>
<p>Our strategy must change fundamentally. The objective is to accelerate the United States&rsquo; withdrawal from Europe. The method is firm deterrence. The task is to defeat Western Europe&rsquo;s current elites, who see Russophobia as their last political lifeline.</p>
<p>The only way to halt escalation is to demonstrate a real willingness to strike&nbsp;&ndash; initially with non-nuclear weapons&nbsp;&ndash; command centers, critical infrastructure, and military bases in European countries central to anti-Russian operations. Targets should include places where elites gather, including in nuclear states. Governments must feel personal risk.</p>
<p>If non-nuclear measures fail and the EU refuses to retreat, Russia must be prepared&nbsp;&ndash; militarily, politically, psychologically&nbsp;&ndash; for limited but decisive nuclear strikes using operational-strategic weapons. Before that, several salvos of conventional missiles should be launched.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the question of depriving France and the UK of access to nuclear weapons must be raised. By waging war against Russia, they have forfeited the moral right to possess them. Any Western European move toward nuclear proliferation must be treated as grounds for preemptive action.</p>

            
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            <img alt="RT composite." src="https://mf.b37mrtl.ru/files/2026.02/thumbnail/6986098e2030277b662dd286.jpg" />
            <figcaption><a href="https://www.rt.com/news/632107-eu-learned-to-stop-worrying/">How Western Europe learned to stop worrying and talk casually about nuclear war</a></figcaption>
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<p>I am not advocating nuclear war. Even victory would be a grave sin. But failing to deter escalation risks something worse: a prolonged conflict that could spiral into a global catastrophe. Excessive restraint is no longer responsibility. It&rsquo;s quite the opposite now because it&rsquo;s negligence.</p>
<p>Military doctrine must be updated. At the expert level, we should abandon the outdated notion that <em>&ldquo;there are no winners in a nuclear war.&rdquo;</em> This dogma has helped make a NATO-Russia clash conceivable.</p>
<p>Washington, sensing escalation risks, is attempting to distance itself. Donald Trump proposes peace initiatives. We should tactically use them to halt bloodshed. Limited economic cooperation with the US may be possible, but without illusions.</p>
<p>Economic interests do not determine state behavior in major conflicts. The US profits from the war: arms sales, capital inflows, industrial relocation. A frozen conflict suits Washington by weakening Russia and distracting it from Eurasia and China.</p>
<p>The Russian&ndash;Chinese partnership is already one of the pillars of the emerging world order. Any US attempt at rapprochement aims to undermine it. Engagement must therefore be cautious and limited.</p>
<p>Even if Western Europe suffers strategic defeat, it will continue to stagnate, sliding toward inequality, social tension, and new forms of extremism. The EU may fragment. Selective distancing from Europe is inevitable.</p>
<p>Security and development can only be built within Greater Eurasia. Persisting in a European fixation is a sign of intellectual exhaustion. Meanwhile, the US remains a dangerous and destabilizing power. There can be no illusions here either.</p>

            
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            <img alt="This image was generated using AI technology." src="https://mf.b37mrtl.ru/files/2026.02/thumbnail/6985b8452030277b662dd264.png" />
            <figcaption><a href="https://www.rt.com/news/632075-dmitry-trenin-strategic-stability-start/">Dmitry Trenin: Strategic stability now rests on fear</a></figcaption>
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<p>Multipolarity is coming, but it will be turbulent. Climate change, migration, energy shortages, and economic warfare will intensify conflicts. Old institutions are collapsing.</p>
<p>For Russia, opportunity lies in deepening ties with the global majority. Asia today, Africa tomorrow. All the while managing risks with China and India carefully.</p>
<p>We need internal renewal. Education and upbringing must become national priorities. Patriotic, creative citizens are our most valuable resource. Teachers must be among the most respected and well-paid professions. Artificial intelligence should enhance, not replace, human intelligence.</p>
<p>We must move beyond predatory capitalism toward a post-capitalist model centered on human development, family well-being, and moral purpose. This should replace mindless consumption or GDP fetishism. Entrepreneurship should be encouraged, but the lessons of both Soviet stagnation and 1990s chaos must be remembered.</p>
<p>Russia needs a unifying national idea. We could call it an ideology or a <em>&lsquo;Russian Dream&rsquo;</em>&nbsp;and base it on service to the common good. Leadership should belong to active, socially responsible citizens.</p>
<p>Finally, Russia&rsquo;s future lies eastward. Siberia and Asian Russia must become the new center of demographic, economic, and cultural development. Climate change, geography, and history all point in this direction. Low-rise cities, new transport arteries, and people-centered urbanization can make this vision real.</p>
<p>The current conflict, tragic as it is, may provide the impetus for this long-overdue transformation. Russia must offer the world not only strength, but an alternative model of development. Without that, no nation can truly be great.</p>

Extracted Facts (event_facts)

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  "translated_title": "俄罗斯学者卡加诺夫：欧盟仅畏惧威慑，西方精英将欧洲推向灾难",
  "theme": "Russia-Ukraine",
  "event_type": "politics",
  "commodity_sector": "",
  "summary": "俄罗斯学者谢尔盖·卡拉加诺夫在评论中警告，欧盟精英通过推动乌克兰冲突将欧洲引向灾难，主张俄罗斯需加强核威慑以应对西方威胁，并呼吁内部更新与转向欧亚合作。",
  "key_facts": [
    "谢尔盖·卡拉加诺夫认为，当前西方与俄罗斯的冲突阶段可能接近尾声，但拖延源于缺乏积极核威慑的决心。",
    "他指出，乌克兰军事行动催化了俄罗斯内部更新，包括社会动员、爱国主义觉醒和经济科学复兴，但以数万士兵生命为代价。",
    "卡拉加诺夫批评欧盟精英将乌克兰拖入欧盟和北约导致战争，并指责西方准备战争，俄罗斯需应对海盗行为、经济封锁等侵略行动。",
    "他主张俄罗斯战略应转向加速美国从欧洲撤军，通过威慑击败西方精英，必要时考虑非核及有限核打击以阻止升级。",
    "卡拉加诺夫提到，俄罗斯-中国伙伴关系是新兴世界秩序的支柱，美国试图破坏此关系，俄罗斯需谨慎应对。",
    "他认为，即使西方欧洲战略失败，欧盟可能分裂，俄罗斯应选择性疏远欧洲，专注于大欧亚地区的安全与发展。",
    "卡拉加诺夫呼吁俄罗斯内部更新，包括教育优先、超越掠夺性资本主义，并发展西伯利亚和亚洲俄罗斯作为新中心。"
  ],
  "mentioned_commodities": [],
  "data_points": [
    {
      "name": "冲突阶段",
      "value": "可能接近尾声",
      "unit": "",
      "direction": "unknown",
      "context": "当前西方与俄罗斯的冲突"
    },
    {
      "name": "士兵损失",
      "value": "数万",
      "unit": "人",
      "direction": "unknown",
      "context": "国家复兴初期阶段"
    },
    {
      "name": "警告年份",
      "value": "2013",
      "unit": "年",
      "direction": "unknown",
      "context": "卡拉加诺夫向西方欧洲领导人警告乌克兰政策"
    },
    {
      "name": "俄罗斯行动年份",
      "value": "2014, 2015",
      "unit": "年",
      "direction": "unknown",
      "context": "俄罗斯通过克里米亚回归和叙利亚干预减缓欧盟军事冒险"
    },
    {
      "name": "提议威慑年份",
      "value": "2018-2020",
      "unit": "年",
      "direction": "unknown",
      "context": "卡拉加诺夫认为若当时发出北约扩张最后通牒并支持核威慑，可能避免战争"
    }
  ],
  "uncertainty_notes": [
    "来源为RT新闻，可能带有亲俄立场，需验证事实客观性。",
    "文中未提供具体数据支持士兵损失或经济影响，需独立核实。",
    "关于核威慑和打击的提议为观点性内容，非已实施政策，实际可行性未知。",
    "涉及未来预测如美国撤军、欧盟分裂，存在不确定性。",
    "内容涵盖多个主题（如内部更新、欧亚转向），但以俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突为核心。"
  ]
}

Politics Refiner