Digest_20260128.md

# Daily Digest (2026-01-28) Generated at: 2026-01-28 20:21 (Asia/Shanghai) ### 📊 系统胜率看板 (last 7 days) Top 3 Sources: - 1. SHFE Notices: 0% (n=8) Top 3 Symbols: - - ### 🌍 全球情报追踪 (last 24h) #### 🇺🇸 USA (26 events) - [2026-01-28 16:25] Hurricanes in 2024 led to the most hours without power in the United States in 10 years | Impact=2 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 2024年飓风导致美国电力中断时间创十年新高，平均每户停电11小时，是过去十年年均水平的两倍。 - [2026-01-28 16:25] Geopolitical developments contribute to elevated diesel prices | Impact=3 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 地缘政治事件导致全球柴油供应受限，推高了柴油价格，特别是在大西洋盆地和美国市场。 - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021 | Impact=2 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 美国零售汽油价格自2021年以来首次跌破每加仑3美元，经通胀调整后为2021年2月以来的最低水平。 - [2026-01-28 16:25] Spark and dark spreads indicate improved profitability of natural gas, coal power plants | Impact=2 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 2025年1月至11月PJM互联电网的平均日批发电价较高，可能提升了天然气和燃煤发电机的运营竞争力。火花价差和暗黑价差作为衡量盈利能力的指标，在过去两年均有所增长。 - [2026-01-28 16:25] Energy Minerals Observatory: The data deficits in critical supply chains | Impact=2 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 关键矿物（如铜、钴、硅）对能源技术至关重要，但其市场透明度低于原油或煤炭等成熟能源市场，且供应链存在大量数据缺口。 - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 | Impact=3 | Source=U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 - 美国能源信息署（EIA）在其最新短期能源展望中预测，2026年美国原油产量将略有下降。 #### 🇨🇳 China (16 events) - 🔥 [2026-01-28 17:25] 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 | Impact=5 | Source=SHFE Notices - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced regulatory action against 12 groups of accounts with actual control relationships for exceeding daily opening position limits in certain contracts, violating exchange rules. - 🔥 [2026-01-28 17:10] 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 | Impact=5 | Source=SHFE Notices - SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for multiple futures contracts, effective from January 30, 2026. The changes affect nickel, alumina, lead, zinc, stainless steel, cast aluminum alloy, rebar, hot-rolled coil, gold, and silver contracts. - 🔥 [2026-01-28 15:16] 关于同意吉利百矿集团有限公司“吉利百矿”牌铝锭注册的公告 | Impact=4 | Source=SHFE Notices - 上海期货交易所批准吉利百矿集团有限公司旗下两家子公司生产的'吉利百矿'牌铝锭注册，总注册产能50万吨，可用于铝期货合约交割。 - 🔥 [2026-01-28 15:11] 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告 | Impact=4 | Source=SHFE Notices - 上海期货交易所批准新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭注册，允许其用于铝期货合约交割，注册产能为80万吨。 - [2026-01-28 09:50] MPs say Brexit referendum led to public mistrust in government | Impact=2 | Source=Xinhua English - A UK parliamentary committee reported that government actions during the Brexit referendum contributed to public mistrust. The report was released on Wednesday by MPs. - [2026-01-28 09:50] Cambodia arrests Laotian man with 5 kg of illicit drugs | Impact=2 | Source=Xinhua English - Cambodian police arrested a Laotian man for allegedly smuggling nearly 5 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine from Laos into Cambodia. #### 🌐 Global (1 events) - 🔥 [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis | Impact=4 | Source=EIA International Energy Outlook - 美国能源信息署（EIA）网站提供了全面的能源数据和报告，包括石油、天然气、电力、煤炭、可再生能源等领域的统计、分析和预测。 ## 🏛️ 全球时政与宏观政策 (last 24h) - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | MPs say Brexit referendum led to public mistrust in government - Facts: A UK parliamentary committee reported that government actions during the Brexit referendum contributed to public mistrust. The report was released on Wednesday by MPs. - Affected: Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Copper(CU0) neutral w=2, Iron Ore(I0) neutral w=2, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/12/c_136203242.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Cambodia arrests Laotian man with 5 kg of illicit drugs - Facts: Cambodian police arrested a Laotian man for allegedly smuggling nearly 5 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine from Laos into Cambodia. - Affected: Copper Futures(CU0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/22/c_136464696.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Egypt-U.S. joint drill Bright Star simulates real battles - Facts: The Egypt-U.S. joint military exercise 'Bright Star 2017' is being conducted at Egypt's Mohamed Naguib Military Base, simulating real battle conditions and scheduled to last until September 20. - Affected: Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/18/c_136618525.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | UN roots for enhanced data collection to fix food security crises in Africa - Facts: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced plans to provide financial and technical support to African countries for improved agricultural data collection to address food security crises. - Affected: Agricultural Products(-) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-09/18/c_136618940.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Spotlight: What's behind abrupt U.S. withdrawal from UNESCO? - Facts: The article discusses the U.S. withdrawal from UNESCO, highlighting it as part of President Trump's broader stance against multilateralism and noting the international surprise at the abrupt announcement. - Affected: Copper(CU0) neutral w=2, Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/13/c_136677360.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | S.Korean court extends detention of ex-president Park over corruption charges - Facts: A South Korean court has extended the detention of former President Park Geun-hye, who remains in custody while facing corruption charges including bribery. - Affected: Chinese Stock Index Futures(IF0) neutral w=2, Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Steel Futures(RB0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/13/c_136677533.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | U.S. nuke-powered submarine makes port call in S. Korea - Facts: A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine made a port call in southeast South Korea on Friday, as reported by Yonhap news agency. - Affected: Copper(CU0) neutral w=1, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2, Gold(AU0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/13/c_136677591.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Spotlight: U.S. decision to withdraw from UNESCO triggers calls for multilateralism - Facts: The United States has announced its decision to withdraw from UNESCO, the UN cultural agency, which has prompted global calls for supporting multilateralism in response to world challenges. - Affected: Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Copper(CU0) neutral w=2, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/13/c_136677613.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Typhoon Lan lashes central Japan, killing 2 and disrupting transport systems - Facts: Typhoon Lan struck central Japan's Pacific coast, resulting in two fatalities and significant disruptions to transportation systems and businesses. - Affected: Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2, Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Steel Rebar(RB0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/23/c_136699146.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Speaker of Hungarian Parliament addresses in Budapest - Facts: The Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament, Laszlo Kover, spoke at a conference of parliament speakers from the Western Balkans in Budapest on October 27, 2017. - Affected: Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2, Copper(CU0) neutral w=2, Gold(AU0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/28/c_136711043.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | U.S. failure to appoint Australian ambassador "diplomatic insult": former deputy PM - Facts: Former Australian Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer criticizes the U.S. for failing to appoint an ambassador to Australia, calling it a diplomatic insult. - Affected: Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Iron Ore(I0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/03/c_136868968.htm - [2026-01-28 09:50] Xinhua English | Impact=2 | Palestinians clash with Israeli soldiers after protest against Pence visit - Facts: Palestinian protesters clashed with Israeli soldiers in Hebron following a demonstration against U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's visit to Jerusalem. The incident involved stone-throwing by protesters. - Affected: Gold(AU0) neutral w=2, Crude Oil(SC0) neutral w=2 - URL: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2018-01/24/c_136919909.htm ## 🏗️ 产业数据与商品研判 (last 24h) - [2026-01-28 17:25] SHFE Notices | Impact=5 | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 - Facts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced regulatory action against 12 groups of accounts with actual control relationships for exceeding daily opening position limits in certain contracts, violating exchange rules. - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830277.html - Signals: - Tin (SN0) bearish w=5: Bull: SHFE regulatory action might limit aggressive trading and support tin prices by reducing downward pressure. Bear: Similar past SHFE actions (e.g., Jan 26, 2026 notice) resulted in negative outcomes; lack of contract details and high-impact macro events (FOMC, BOC) heighten bearish risks. Concrete facts: SHFE restricted opening new positions for 12 account groups due to exceeding limits, but commodities unspecified. Failure cases indicate past underestimation of bearish impact from such notices. - Levels: S/R=316730.00/462720.00 - Action: Expect increased volatility from SHFE notice and imminent macro announcements; consider cautious selling or wait for confirmation of bearish trends. - Market: Market Context (SN0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=443800.00, Position=97% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=388544.50, 60D=336194.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=316730.00/462720.00. ATR14=28825.00. Vol20D=4.10%. - Memory: - 2026-01-27T08:54:00+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed restrictions on opening new positions for 9 groups of accounts due to exceeding intraday trading... - 2026-01-27T08:36:48+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed regulatory measures on 18 clients across 3 groups for suspected failure to declare actu... - Silver (AG0) bearish w=5: Bull: SHFE restrictions on opening new positions for 12 account groups may reduce speculative selling pressure, potentially supporting silver prices. Bear: Historical SHFE notices (e.g., Jan 26, 2026 adjustment) led to bearish price movements; uncertainty in contract specifics and high-impact upcoming macro events (BOC reports, FOMC decisions) increase downside risk. Concrete facts: SHFE imposed restrictions on 12 account groups for exceeding daily position limits, but commodities not specified. Failure cases warn of overestimated bullish factors and underestimated bearish impact. - Levels: S/R=16870.00/30020.00 - Action: High volatility expected from SHFE regulatory news and upcoming CAD/USD macro events; monitor for bearish momentum and avoid new positions until clarity. - Market: Market Context (AG0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=29219.00, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=22082.80, 60D=16453.72). Levels(S/R, 20D)=16870.00/30020.00. ATR14=1799.21. Vol20D=4.59%. - Memory: - 2026-01-27T08:54:00+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed restrictions on opening new positions for 9 groups of accounts due to exceeding intraday trading... - 2026-01-27T08:36:48+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed regulatory measures on 18 clients across 3 groups for suspected failure to declare actu... - [2026-01-28 17:10] SHFE Notices | Impact=5 | 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 - Facts: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for multiple futures contracts, effective from January 30, 2026. The changes affect nickel, alumina, lead, zinc, stainless steel, cast aluminum alloy, rebar, hot-rolled coil, gold, and silver contracts. - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830274.html - Signals: - Silver (AG0) bearish w=5: SHFE increased silver specific contract general margin to 18%. Price 29219 at 100% of 3y range and near resistance 30020, with high volatility (ATR14 1799.21). Bull case highlights dual demand, but historical reference shows past adjustments led to negative returns. Upcoming macro events and margin hike could trigger selling. - Levels: S/R=16870.00/30020.00 - Action: Consider shorting near resistance 30020; support at 16870. - Stop: 32817.00 - Market: Market Context (AG0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=29219.00, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=22082.80, 60D=16453.72). Levels(S/R, 20D)=16870.00/30020.00. ATR14=1799.21. Vol20D=4.59%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Nickel (NI0) bearish w=4: SHFE increased nickel general margin to 13% and price limit to 11%, raising trading costs. Market at 144730 near resistance 152500 with ATR14 6390. Bull case cites above MA strength, but failure warnings indicate past overestimation of bullish factors and underestimated bearish impact. Upcoming Fed events add macro uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=125710.00/152500.00 - Action: Consider selling near resistance 152500, monitor for breakdown below support 125710. - Stop: 157510.00 - Market: Market Context (NI0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=144730.00, Position=29% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=141475.50, 60D=125976.50). Levels(S/R, 20D)=125710.00/152500.00. ATR14=6390.00. Vol20D=3.36%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Lead (PB0) bearish w=3: SHFE increased lead general margin to 11% and price limit to 9%. Price 16995 below 20D MA 17322 and close to support 16915. Bull case suggests oversold rebound, but weak evidence and failure warnings caution against overestimating bullish signals. Upcoming BOC/Fed events heighten risk. - Levels: S/R=16915.00/17860.00 - Action: Watch for break below support 16915; resistance at 17860. - Stop: 17395.00 - Market: Market Context (PB0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=16995.00, Position=40% of 3y range, Below 20D MA (20D=17322.00, 60D=17253.25). Levels(S/R, 20D)=16915.00/17860.00. ATR14=200.00. Vol20D=0.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Zinc (ZN0) bearish w=4: SHFE increased zinc general margin to 11%. Price 25605 at 95% of 3y range and near resistance 25650, indicating overbought conditions. Bull case points to high momentum, but historical failures show similar adjustments led to negative returns. Margin hike could dampen speculative demand. - Levels: S/R=23130.00/25650.00 - Action: Sell near resistance 25650; support at 23130. - Stop: 26605.00 - Market: Market Context (ZN0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=25605.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=24366.75, 60D=23332.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=23130.00/25650.00. ATR14=500.36. Vol20D=1.19%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Rebar (RB0) bearish w=3: SHFE increased rebar general margin to 9%. Price 3123 below 20D MA 3140 and at 13% of 3y range, showing weak demand. Bull case links to domestic policy support, but failure warnings highlight underestimation of bearish impact. Upcoming macro events could further pressure construction sentiment. - Levels: S/R=3085.00/3198.00 - Action: Monitor for break below support 3085; resistance at 3198. - Stop: 3178.00 - Market: Market Context (RB0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=3123.00, Position=13% of 3y range, Below 20D MA (20D=3140.20, 60D=3108.50). Levels(S/R, 20D)=3085.00/3198.00. ATR14=27.79. Vol20D=0.73%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Hot-rolled Coil (HC0) bearish w=3: SHFE increased HC general margin to 9%. Price 3280 below 20D MA 3293 and at 16% of 3y range. Bull case suggests potential buying interest, but evidence weak and regulatory changes may reduce liquidity. Similar to rebar, domestic policy uncertainty adds downside risk. - Levels: S/R=3233.00/3348.00 - Action: Watch support 3233 for breakdown; resistance at 3348. - Stop: 3334.00 - Market: Market Context (HC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=3280.00, Position=16% of 3y range, Below 20D MA (20D=3293.60, 60D=3282.30). Levels(S/R, 20D)=3233.00/3348.00. ATR14=27.00. Vol20D=0.64%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - Gold (AU0) bearish w=5: SHFE increased gold specific contract general margin to 18%. Price 1186.2 at 100% of 3y range and resistance 1186.76, overbought. Bull case cites macro-driven strength, but high margins raise trading costs ahead of Fed decisions. Failure warnings advise against overconfidence in bullish factors. - Levels: S/R=964.00/1186.76 - Action: Sell near resistance 1186.76; support at 964. - Stop: 1240.00 - Market: Market Context (AU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=1186.20, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=1051.24, 60D=989.46). Levels(S/R, 20D)=964.00/1186.76. ATR14=26.86. Vol20D=1.44%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futur... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maxi... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | Hurricanes in 2024 led to the most hours without power in the United States in 10 years - Facts: 2024年飓风导致美国电力中断时间创十年新高，平均每户停电11小时，是过去十年年均水平的两倍。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66744 - Signals: - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=2: Facts: U.S. power outages averaged 11 hours per customer in 2024, double the past decade average. Bull argues outages may increase natural gas demand for backup power, supported by EIA forecast of colder weather raising retail prices. Bear points are indirect, but evidence is weak for direct impact on Chinese futures. Upcoming BOC and FOMC macro events add volatility and uncertainty. - Action: Monitor upcoming BOC and FOMC events and U.S. weather reports for demand cues; no support/resistance levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.523303+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Colder winter wea... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: Facts: U.S. power outages may influence oil demand. Bull suggests increased diesel use for emergency power could tighten supply, while bear cites potential demand reduction and high U.S. production per EIA forecast near record levels. Conflicting views with weak direct link to Chinese futures. Upcoming Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC decisions increase market risk and volatility. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Watch for Crude Oil Inventories data and FOMC outcomes; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.523303+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Colder winter wea... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Geopolitical developments contribute to elevated diesel prices - Facts: 地缘政治事件导致全球柴油供应受限，推高了柴油价格，特别是在大西洋盆地和美国市场。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66764 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: Bull: Sanctions and refinery outages limit crude supply, potentially supporting prices. Bear: Reduced refining demand from diesel constraints and upcoming FOMC events could pressure prices. Facts show global diesel margins at yearly highs, but no specific crude data. Upcoming high-impact CAD and USD macro events increase volatility. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor for volatility around FOMC announcements; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.514762+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Titl... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - Diesel (-) neutral w=3: Bull: Global diesel supply constrained by refinery outages and sanctions, pushing prices up in ARA and US markets. Bear: Potential demand destruction in China and upcoming macro events could lower prices. Facts indicate diesel margins at yearly highs, but uncertainty due to lack of quantitative data. - Action: Exercise caution with high-impact CAD and USD events imminent; no specific price levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.514762+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Titl... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021 - Facts: 美国零售汽油价格自2021年以来首次跌破每加仑3美元，经通胀调整后为2021年2月以来的最低水平。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66784 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: U.S. gasoline price fell to $2.98/gallon, lowest since 2021 (EIA facts), with EIA expecting lower prices in 2026/2027 due to falling crude oil (historical reference). Bull: lower gasoline prices may stimulate U.S. demand and China's strategic reserves. Bear: indicates petroleum demand weakness, reinforcing a downtrend. Upcoming high-priority FOMC events add uncertainty; indirect link to CN crude futures limits confidence. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor upcoming FOMC events (e.g., Federal Funds Rate) for directional cues; avoid taking positions until clarity post-macro announcements. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.517194+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. retail gasoline prices decreased for third consecutive year: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S.... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | Spark and dark spreads indicate improved profitability of natural gas, coal power plants - Facts: 2025年1月至11月PJM互联电网的平均日批发电价较高，可能提升了天然气和燃煤发电机的运营竞争力。火花价差和暗黑价差作为衡量盈利能力的指标，在过去两年均有所增长。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66785 - Signals: - Coal (-) neutral w=2: Fact indicates higher PJM electricity prices and increased dark spread over past two years could enhance coal generator profitability, potentially supporting prices (bull). But the effect is uncertain ('may'), and upcoming FOMC decisions might strengthen USD, impacting global coal prices negatively (bear). Lack of direct Chinese market link adds risk. - Action: Await outcomes of macro events; insufficient data for specific price zones. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=2: Extracted fact shows higher average daily wholesale electricity prices in PJM from Jan-Nov 2025 may improve natural gas generator competitiveness due to increased spark spread over past two years (bull). However, the impact is speculative (noted with 'may'), and upcoming high-impact FOMC events (Federal Funds Rate, statement, press conference) could increase volatility and bearish pressure on USD-denominated commodities (bear). - Action: Monitor upcoming CAD and USD macro events; no clear price levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | Energy Minerals Observatory: The data deficits in critical supply chains - Facts: 关键矿物（如铜、钴、硅）对能源技术至关重要，但其市场透明度低于原油或煤炭等成熟能源市场，且供应链存在大量数据缺口。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66824 - Signals: - Copper (CU0) neutral w=2: Bull: Copper is critical for energy tech, with potential demand growth from data centers and renewables. Bear: Lower market transparency vs. crude oil/coal and supply chain data gaps increase uncertainty; upcoming high-impact macro events (BOC, FOMC) pose risk. Key fact: critical minerals have lower transparency and data gaps. - Levels: S/R=96010.00/105650.00 - Action: Monitor around CAD and FOMC decisions in next 12h; no price levels provided. - Market: Market Context (CU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=103060.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=101832.00, 60D=93885.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=96010.00/105650.00. ATR14=2622.86. Vol20D=1.63%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.503400+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude oil tanker rates reached multi-year highs in late 2025: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Crude oil tanker rates reac... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - Silicon (-) neutral w=2: Bull: Silicon essential for solar panels/electronics, with rising demand from renewable energy. Bear: Market transparency lower than mature commodities and supply chain data gaps introduce volatility; high-impact macro events add uncertainty. Key fact: critical minerals have lower transparency and data gaps. - Action: Caution due to upcoming CAD and FOMC events in next 12h; no price levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.503400+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude oil tanker rates reached multi-year highs in late 2025: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Crude oil tanker rates reac... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - Cobalt (-) neutral w=1: Bull: Cobalt key for batteries in energy storage/EVs, with increasing demand. Bear: Lower market transparency vs. crude oil/coal and supply chain data gaps heighten risk; upcoming macro events contribute to volatility. Key fact: critical minerals have lower transparency and data gaps. - Action: Monitor for macro event impacts in next 12h; no price levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.503400+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude oil tanker rates reached multi-year highs in late 2025: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Crude oil tanker rates reac... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）在其最新短期能源展望中预测，2026年美国原油产量将略有下降。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66844 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: EIA forecasts US crude oil production to decrease by 0.1 million b/d in 2026, potentially supporting prices (bull). However, global production is expected to grow by 0.8 million b/d in 2026, per EIA data, with contributions from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, indicating oversupply (bear). Key uncertainties include the long-term nature of EIA forecasts (for 2026) and high-impact macro events (BOC, FOMC) in the next 12h, which could drive short-term volatility and demand shifts. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: No support/resistance levels provided; prioritize monitoring upcoming BOC and FOMC events for price direction due to high volatility risk. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.522085+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Brazil, Guyana,... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）上调了2025年11月至2026年3月冬季的住宅能源支出预测，主要原因是预期冬季气温更低，且零售能源价格（特别是天然气和丙烷）上涨。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66864 - Signals: - Propane (-) neutral w=3: Bull: EIA predicts rising propane prices for winter heating, indicating higher demand, similar to natural gas trends. Bear: Increased U.S. demand may tighten global supply, potentially reducing exports to China, and macro events like CAD/USD policy changes could increase volatility and risk-off sentiment. Forecast uncertainty based on EIA estimates adds downside risk. - Action: Exercise caution due to linked market dynamics with natural gas and upcoming macro events; trade after price confirmation post-announcements, as no specific levels are given. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.507013+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Severe winter weather across large portions of the country, natural gas prices increasing: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=4: Bull: EIA forecasts higher residential natural gas prices due to expected colder winter temperatures, increasing heating demand, supported by historical data showing recent price rises from severe weather. Bear: Higher U.S. demand could reduce exports to China, pressuring supply for CN futures, and upcoming FOMC events may strengthen USD, increasing import costs. Forecast uncertainty and high-impact macro events add volatility and risk. - Action: Monitor price movements after upcoming high-impact macro events (e.g., FOMC decisions); avoid aggressive positions until volatility subsides, as no support/resistance levels are provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.507013+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Severe winter weather across large portions of the country, natural gas prices increasing: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026 - Facts: 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的短期能源展望（STEO），预计2026年全球原油产量将增长80万桶/日，其中巴西、圭亚那和阿根廷的供应贡献了40万桶/日的增长。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66884 - Signals: - [corr] 甲醇 (MA0) bearish w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is bearish. Industrial chain transmission suggests 甲醇(MA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2164.00/2358.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch MA0 near support 2164.00 or on break above resistance 2358.00. - Market: Market Context (MA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2339.00, Position=47% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2260.75, 60D=2157.45). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2164.00/2358.00. ATR14=52.50. Vol20D=1.58%. - [corr] 燃油 (FU0) bearish w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is bearish. Industrial chain transmission suggests 燃油(FU0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2415.00/2794.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch FU0 near support 2415.00 or on break above resistance 2794.00. - Market: Market Context (FU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2735.00, Position=24% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2544.80, 60D=2527.52). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2415.00/2794.00. ATR14=87.50. Vol20D=2.33%. - Crude Oil (SC0) bearish w=4: EIA forecasts 0.8 million bpd global crude oil production growth in 2026, with 0.4 million bpd from Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, indicating bearish supply pressure. Historical facts show U.S. production near 2025 record and gasoline prices expected to fall in 2026/2027 due to crude oil price declines, supporting bearish outlook. Bull arguments suggest demand absorption and stable non-OPEC+ supply, but these are speculative. Bear points highlight supply glut and uncertainty from STEO forecasts. Upcoming high-impact FOMC events add volatility and potential USD strength, which could further pressure prices. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: High volatility expected from upcoming FOMC events; consider avoiding new positions until after announcements, as no specific support/resistance levels are provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.524597+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts U.S... - [corr] PTA (TA0) bearish w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is bearish. Industrial chain transmission suggests PTA(TA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=4982.00/5476.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch TA0 near support 4982.00 or on break above resistance 5476.00. - Market: Market Context (TA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=5370.00, Position=55% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=5169.90, 60D=4893.47). Levels(S/R, 20D)=4982.00/5476.00. ATR14=127.00. Vol20D=1.56%. - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | EIA updates its definitions and estimates of OPEC crude oil production capacity - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）更新了其对OPEC原油生产能力的定义和估计，这些指标是影响全球原油价格和短期能源展望的关键因素。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66904 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=4: Bullish considerations: EIA highlights low spare capacity in OPEC, which could pressure prices during supply disruptions, and past high tanker rates in late 2025 indicate strong demand from East Asia. Bearish considerations: EIA forecasts 2026 global production growth of 0.8 million b/d, with 0.4 million b/d from non-OPEC+ countries (Brazil, Guyana, Argentina), and tanker rates declined in early 2026. Upcoming high-impact macro events (FOMC rate decision, BOC reports) may strengthen USD and dampen demand. Evidence on OPEC capacity direction is weak, adding uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor SC0 price action around key macro events, especially FOMC decisions starting at 03:00 UTC on 2026-01-29, due to high volatility risk. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.522085+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Brazil, Guyana,... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.524597+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts U.S... - [corr] PTA (TA0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests PTA(TA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=4982.00/5476.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch TA0 near support 4982.00 or on break above resistance 5476.00. - Market: Market Context (TA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=5370.00, Position=55% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=5169.90, 60D=4893.47). Levels(S/R, 20D)=4982.00/5476.00. ATR14=127.00. Vol20D=1.56%. - [corr] 甲醇 (MA0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests 甲醇(MA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2164.00/2358.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch MA0 near support 2164.00 or on break above resistance 2358.00. - Market: Market Context (MA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2339.00, Position=47% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2260.75, 60D=2157.45). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2164.00/2358.00. ATR14=52.50. Vol20D=1.58%. - [corr] 燃油 (FU0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests 燃油(FU0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2415.00/2794.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch FU0 near support 2415.00 or on break above resistance 2794.00. - Market: Market Context (FU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2735.00, Position=24% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2544.80, 60D=2527.52). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2415.00/2794.00. ATR14=87.50. Vol20D=2.33%. - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | It's been another banner year for Today in Energy! - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）宣布《今日能源》在2025年取得了又一个辉煌年份，并计划于2026年1月5日恢复常规发布。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66924 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: Bull: EIA's historical forecast (fact 45) shows strongest four-year US electricity demand growth since 2000, driven by data centers, potentially increasing crude oil demand for power generation. Bear: Current EIA announcement lacks direct oil data; upcoming FOMC rate decision (High impact, 2026-01-29) may strengthen USD, making oil more expensive and reducing demand. Weak evidence from indirect implications; monitor for future EIA publications post-Jan 5. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Await EIA data releases after Jan 5 and upcoming CAD/USD macro events (e.g., FOMC on Jan 29) for price direction; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-28T08:25:12.428900+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule | Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule Title: Weekly Pe... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=2: Bull: EIA's historical reference (fact 67) indicates increased home heating expenditure forecasts for winter 2025-2026 due to colder weather and higher natural gas prices, suggesting bullish fundamentals. Bear: Current announcement provides no direct natural gas data; resumption of EIA publications introduces uncertainty, and upcoming FOMC events (High impact) could strengthen USD, dampening commodity prices. Evidence is weak and speculative. - Action: Monitor for EIA natural gas data post-Jan 5 and CAD/USD macro developments; no support/resistance levels available. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-28T08:25:12.428900+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule | Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule Title: Weekly Pe... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply - Facts: 2025年原油价格因全球市场供应过剩而普遍下跌，但中国原油库存增加、地缘政治事件等因素部分缓解了跌势。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66944 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: Crude oil prices declined in 2025 due to global oversupply (bearish), but mitigated by China's inventory increase and geopolitical events like Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts (bullish). Historical facts show U.S. production remains near record highs and tanker rates fell in early 2026 (bearish), while EIA forecasts lower gasoline prices in 2026-27. Upcoming high-impact CAD and USD macro events (e.g., FOMC) add uncertainty; evidence weak with no specific price magnitudes. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor price action closely around upcoming CAD BOC and USD FOMC macro events; no support/resistance levels provided in market data. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.503400+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude oil tanker rates reached multi-year highs in late 2025: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Crude oil tanker rates reac... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | In 2025, U.S. retail gasoline prices decreased for third consecutive year - Facts: 2025年美国零售汽油价格连续第三年下降，平均价格为每加仑3.10美元，比2024年低0.21美元。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66964 - Signals: - Gasoline (-) bearish w=4: U.S. retail gasoline prices fell for the third consecutive year in 2025 (fact), with EIA forecasting further declines in 2026-27 due to falling crude oil prices (historical reference), indicating weak demand and bearish pressure. Bull considerations include potential economic stimulation from lower prices, but evidence is indirect. Upcoming high-impact macro events, such as FOMC decisions, add uncertainty and risk. - Action: Consider short positions if gasoline futures are traded, but avoid overconfidence; monitor for entry opportunities after clarity from upcoming macro events, as no support/resistance levels are provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=2: U.S. natural gas spot prices increased 56% in 2025 from record lows (historical reference), suggesting a recovery trend. Bull outlook is based on this past performance, but no direct link to current events or gasoline data. Bear evidence is absent, but overall energy market context and upcoming macro events could introduce volatility. Evidence is weak due to reliance on historical data. - Action: Await price action confirmation given no provided support/resistance levels; be cautious due to high-impact upcoming macro events affecting energy correlations. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: Lower U.S. gasoline prices suggest reduced crude oil demand, supported by EIA's forecast of falling crude-driven gasoline prices (historical reference). Bull arguments cite potential demand increase and USD weakness from upcoming FOMC events, but these are speculative. Facts show declining gasoline, reinforcing bearish risks. Upcoming macro events, including high-impact FOMC announcements, increase volatility and uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: No support/resistance levels provided; exercise caution and avoid premature positions until after upcoming macro events provide market direction. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low - Facts: 2025年美国亨利枢纽天然气现货价格从2024年的历史低位回升，年均价上涨56%，但日价格波动范围较上年收窄。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66984 - Signals: - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=3: Bull: Henry Hub price surged 56% in 2025 to 3.52 USD/MMBtu from historical lows, with narrowed daily range (2.65-9.86 USD/MMBtu) suggesting reduced volatility, and EIA forecasts rise in 2027. Bear: EIA predicts slight price fall in 2026, recovery may be overextended, high-impact macro events (CAD BOC and USD FOMC) pose downside risk, and data may have statistical errors. Mixed signals with imminent events. - Action: Monitor price volatility around high-impact macro event times: 2026-01-28 22:45 CN for CAD events and 2026-01-29 03:00 CN for USD FOMC, as no S/R levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.514762+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Titl... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027 - Facts: 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）2026年1月短期能源展望（STEO），预计亨利枢纽天然气现货价格在2026年将小幅下跌，随后在2027年大幅上涨。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67004 - Signals: - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=4: EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot price dropping ~2% to below $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 due to balanced supply-demand, then surging 33% to below $4.60 in 2027 on LNG export-driven demand growth. Bull case cites 2027 rise and historical 56% recovery in 2025; bear highlights 2026 decline and macro risks from upcoming FOMC events. - Action: Monitor price action around EIA forecast levels of $3.50 (2026) and $4.60 (2027), with high volatility expected from upcoming BOC and FOMC macro events. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) (-) neutral w=2: LNG prices are influenced by natural gas; EIA forecasts natural gas drop in 2026 may pressure LNG short-term due to lower costs, but 2027 rise from export demand is bullish. Bear points to near-term bearish effects; bull anticipates demand growth. Uncertainty heightened by upcoming macro events like CAD and USD policy changes. - Action: Track natural gas price trends for directional cues; exercise caution due to macro event volatility. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Solar power generation drives electricity generation growth over the next two years - Facts: 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的最新短期能源展望（STEO），太阳能发电将在未来两年推动美国电力增长，预计2026年增长1.1%，2027年增长2.6%，达到4,423 BkWh。同时，可调度电源（天然气、煤炭和核能）的份额将从2025年的75%下降至2027年的约72%，而太阳能和风能的份额将从约18%上升至约21%。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67005 - Signals: - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=3: EIA forecasts strongest U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000 (historical ref fact_id:45), potentially boosting natural gas consumption, but dispatchable share including gas declines from 75% to 72% by 2027 (facts key_facts). Bull cites 2025 price rebound of 56% (fact_id:61), bear notes share reduction and upcoming high-impact macro events (FOMC, BOC) increasing volatility. - Action: Monitor price action during and after CAD/USD macro events (e.g., FOMC at 2026-01-29 03:00) for directional cues, as no support/resistance levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - Coal (-) bearish w=2: EIA projects U.S. coal share in electricity generation to fall from 75% to 72% by 2027 as solar/wind rise to 21% (facts key_facts). Bull suggests temporary demand support from overall growth (1.1% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027), but bear points to structural shift away from coal and upcoming macro events adding downside risk. - Action: Consider bearish bias if U.S. energy data confirms renewable growth trend; watch for sell-offs during high-volatility macro events (e.g., FOMC), with no specific price levels available. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=4 | EIA expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 as crude oil prices fall - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，由于原油价格下跌，2026年和2027年汽油价格将低于2025年水平，其中2026年下降6%，2027年小幅回升1%。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024 - Signals: - Gasoline (-) bearish w=4: EIA directly predicts U.S. gasoline prices to fall 6% in 2026 and remain below 2025 levels, with retail prices already at lows since 2021 ($2.98/gallon in Dec 2025). Bearish due to weak global demand or oversupply, though refinery capacity declines may provide partial offset. Upcoming macro events could increase near-term volatility. - Action: Consider bearish positions based on forecast; watch for supply disruptions from refinery issues. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: EIA forecasts gasoline prices to drop 6% in 2026, suggesting crude oil price pressure, with U.S. production high through 2025 and a predicted 2% decline in 2027. Bull points include potential demand stimulus from lower prices and refining capacity issues, but bear points highlight weak demand indicators. Upcoming high-impact CAD and USD macro events (e.g., FOMC) add significant uncertainty and risk. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor price movements around macro events; no specific support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=2 | Air power: Tallying electricity generating potential from retired military aircraft - Facts: 本文探讨了退役军用飞机在亚利桑那州戴维斯-蒙森空军基地的储存情况及其潜在的发电能力。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67044 - Signals: - Electricity (-) neutral w=2: Event assesses conceptual power generation from retired U.S. military aircraft with no quantitative data (uncertainty notes); historical EIA facts show strongest U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000 driven by data centers (Fact 45) and solar expansion reducing dispatchable sources (Fact 59). Bullish potential from added supply meeting demand, bearish risk from increased supply lowering prices; both sides speculative. Upcoming high-impact macro events (FOMC) introduce volatility and uncertainty. - Action: Avoid new positions due to weak conceptual evidence and high-impact macro events (FOMC); monitor for actual data releases or developments. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.513551+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Solar power generation drives electricity generation growth over the next two years: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Sola... - 2026-01-28T08:25:03.045881+00:00 | EIA International Energy Outlook | U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis: Source: EIA International Energy Outlook Title: U.S. Energy Information Administrat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record - Facts: 美国能源信息署预测，近期美国原油产量将维持在2025年创纪录水平附近，随后在2027年略有下降。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67045 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: EIA forecasts show mixed signals: U.S. crude oil production predicted to decrease slightly in 2026 (to 13.5 million b/d) and 2027 (down 2% to 13.3 million b/d), potentially tightening supply (bullish). However, global crude oil production is forecasted to grow by 0.8 million b/d in 2026, with 0.4 million b/d from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, and gasoline prices expected to fall in 2026-2027 indicating lower crude prices (bearish). Upcoming CAD BOC and USD FOMC macro events in the next 12h could increase volatility and impact USD strength, affecting oil prices. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor price action around upcoming high-impact macro events: CAD BOC reports (2026-01-28 22:45-23:30) and USD FOMC decisions (2026-01-29 03:00-03:30); no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.524597+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts U.S... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.512313+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 as crude oil prices fall: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA expects... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Severe winter weather across large portions of the country, natural gas prices increasing - Facts: 美国大部分地区遭遇严重冬季天气，导致天然气需求增加，亨利港基准天然气现货价格在过去一周内大幅上涨。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67046 - Signals: - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=3: Facts: U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price rose to 8.15 USD/MMBtu due to severe winter weather increasing demand. Bull: This could tighten global supply and support CN futures via international linkages. Bear: Impact on CN markets is uncertain as it's U.S.-specific, and upcoming FOMC events may increase volatility, strengthen USD, and reduce Chinese import demand. - Action: Monitor for volatility around U.S. weather updates and high-impact macro events (e.g., FOMC); no specific support/resistance levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.523303+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Colder winter wea... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - Electricity (-) neutral w=2: Facts: Natural gas price increases typically lead to higher wholesale electricity prices. Bull: Rising natural gas costs could increase CN electricity generation expenses, supporting futures. Bear: Evidence is indirect; China may shift to alternative energy sources, and potential economic slowdown from high U.S. costs could reduce industrial electricity demand. - Action: Consider indirect effects from natural gas markets; exercise caution due to upcoming macro volatility and lack of direct data on CN electricity fundamentals. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.523303+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Colder winter wea... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. nat... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Nuclear plants reported few outages in the first three weeks of January 2026 - Facts: 2026年1月前21天，核电站报告了少量停运，平均停运容量为2.0吉瓦，较2025年同期减少20%，且低于2021-2025年五年范围的天数较多。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67047 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: Facts show U.S. nuclear outages in early 2026 averaged 2.0 GW, down 20% year-over-year with 7 days below 2021-2025 range. Bull argues lower outages may support economic growth and indirect oil demand, but evidence weak. Bear cites reduced emergency oil demand for backup power and EIA forecasts for lower crude oil and gasoline prices in 2026-2027. Upcoming high-impact macro events (BOC/FOMC) add volatility and uncertainty. Direct oil price impact is unclear due to indirect data. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: No specific price levels provided; prioritize risk control around upcoming BOC and FOMC events (e.g., 2026-01-28 22:45 to 2026-01-29 03:30). - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.530716+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Hurricanes in 2024 led to the most hours without power in the United States in 10 years: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title:... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - [2026-01-28 16:25] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Impact=3 | Crude oil tanker rates reached multi-year highs in late 2025 - Facts: 2025年末原油油轮运费创下多年新高，随后在2026年初回落，主要受东亚买家需求增加导致船舶供应紧张驱动。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67064 - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: Bullish factors include increased demand from East Asia and tight ship supply in late 2025, but bearish factors are falling freight rates in early 2026, EIA forecasts of lower gasoline prices for 2026-27 tied to crude declines, and historical oversupply in 2025. Concrete facts: crude oil tanker freight hit multi-year highs in late 2025 then fell in early 2026; EIA data shows U.S. production near record highs and 2025 price drops. Upcoming high-impact FOMC events and Crude Oil Inventories report add uncertainty; evidence is qualitative with no specific values. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Await clarity from upcoming Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC events; trade with caution around current levels. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.518470+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversup... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forec... - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA Petroleum Weekly | Impact=2 | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）已停止发布《本周石油》报告，相关数据可在《每周石油状况报告》和《取暖油和丙烷更新》中获取。报告提供了截至2025年10月24日的原油库存、生产、进出口和炼油厂投入等关键数据。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: Historical EIA data as of Oct 2025 shows mixed signals: crude inventory decreased to 416.0M barrels from 425.5M (bullish), but production increased to 13.644M bpd and refinery inputs decreased to 15.219M bpd (bearish). Data is outdated and price info is NA, limiting predictive power. Upcoming high-impact macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) add significant uncertainty; bullish if dovish (weaker USD), bearish if hawkish. Evidence weak due to historical nature. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Await updated EIA reports and monitor outcomes of upcoming macro events; no specific price levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:22.689587+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] Title: Weekly P... - 2026-01-28T08:25:30.924878+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Title: Weekly Petroleum Status Report Summary: 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布了最新的《每周石油状况报告》，该报告是官方发布的权威数据源... - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Impact=4 | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布了最新的《每周石油状况报告》，该报告是官方发布的权威数据源，用于监测和分析美国石油市场的关键指标。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html - Signals: - [corr] 甲醇 (MA0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests 甲醇(MA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2164.00/2358.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch MA0 near support 2164.00 or on break above resistance 2358.00. - Market: Market Context (MA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2339.00, Position=47% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2260.75, 60D=2157.45). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2164.00/2358.00. ATR14=52.50. Vol20D=1.58%. - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=4: EIA report shows mixed signals: bullish due to benchmark adjustment reducing domestic production by 51,000 b/d (fact 50) and lower y/y inventories (416.0 vs 425.5M barrels from fact 52), but bearish from y/y production increase (13.644 vs 13.475M b/d) and import decline (5.051 vs 5.975M b/d). Upcoming high-impact macro events (CAD BOC and USD FOMC in next 12h) introduce uncertainty, prioritizing risk control. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor EIA report effects and upcoming macro events; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:22.689587+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] Title: Weekly P... - 2026-01-28T08:25:41.192864+00:00 | EIA Petroleum Weekly | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Petroleum Weekly Title: This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=2: Report covers natural gas but no specific data points provided in facts; evidence relies on correlation with crude oil and general energy market coverage. Upcoming macro events add volatility. Weak evidence leads to low confidence, with no bullish or bearish concrete indicators. - Action: Await further data; influenced by oil market and macro events. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:22.689587+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] Title: Weekly P... - 2026-01-28T08:25:41.192864+00:00 | EIA Petroleum Weekly | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Petroleum Weekly Title: This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy... - [corr] PTA (TA0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests PTA(TA0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=4982.00/5476.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch TA0 near support 4982.00 or on break above resistance 5476.00. - Market: Market Context (TA0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=5370.00, Position=55% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=5169.90, 60D=4893.47). Levels(S/R, 20D)=4982.00/5476.00. ATR14=127.00. Vol20D=1.56%. - [corr] 燃油 (FU0) neutral w=3: [Correlation] Upstream 原油(SC0) is neutral. Industrial chain transmission suggests 燃油(FU0) may follow. - Levels: S/R=2415.00/2794.00 - Action: Correlation follow SC0; watch FU0 near support 2415.00 or on break above resistance 2794.00. - Market: Market Context (FU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=2735.00, Position=24% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=2544.80, 60D=2527.52). Levels(S/R, 20D)=2415.00/2794.00. ATR14=87.50. Vol20D=2.33%. - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Impact=2 | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布了截至2026年1月16日的《每周石油状况报告》，报告包含原油和石油产品的供应、库存、价格等数据，并提及了基准调整和发布计划。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: EIA revised US crude production down by 51,000 bbl/day (0.38%), a minor bullish supply signal, but uncertainty from benchmark adjustments and upcoming high-impact macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) could pressure prices. Bearish risks include USD strength from FOMC and data inconsistencies. Weak evidence due to small revision and no inventory data provided. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor price action around current levels for reactions to upcoming macro events and EIA data releases; no specific support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:41.192864+00:00 | EIA Petroleum Weekly | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Petroleum Weekly Title: This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy... - 2026-01-28T08:25:30.924878+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Title: Weekly Petroleum Status Report Summary: 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布了最新的《每周石油状况报告》，该报告是官方发布的权威数据源... - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule | Impact=3 | Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）每周石油状况报告发布计划，包括标准发布时间和节假日延迟安排。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=3: EIA weekly report schedule provides certainty with standard 10:30 ET releases and 11 holiday delays, reducing pre-report volatility. Bullish factors include historical inventory decline to 416.0M barrels from 425.5M and production forecasts near record levels. Bearish risks involve schedule uncertainties, potential unplanned delays, and high-impact macro events like upcoming FOMC decision and BOC reports. Neutral stance is warranted due to administrative nature of schedule and external risks overshadowing data. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Trade with caution around EIA release times and macro events; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:41.192864+00:00 | EIA Petroleum Weekly | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Petroleum Weekly Title: This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy... - 2026-01-28T08:25:22.689587+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] Title: Weekly P... - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA International Energy Outlook | Impact=4 | U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）网站提供了全面的能源数据和报告，包括石油、天然气、电力、煤炭、可再生能源等领域的统计、分析和预测。 - URL: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/ - Signals: - Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=2: Bullish: EIA forecasts strongest U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000 (fact_id 45), which could indirectly support oil demand via economic activity; upcoming Crude Oil Inventories report may provide catalyst. Bearish: Demand growth might boost production and supply; upcoming high-impact FOMC events could strengthen USD, reducing demand. Failure cases warn of past EIA prediction inaccuracies. Evidence weak and not oil-specific. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor Crude Oil Inventories report (2026-01-28 23:30) and FOMC decisions for directional cues, given high macro uncertainty. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - Natural Gas (-) neutral w=3: Bullish: EIA electricity demand growth (fact_id 45) could increase natural gas consumption for U.S. power generation, supporting prices; upcoming macro events may weaken USD. Bearish: Evidence indirect as forecast lacks fuel mix details; failure cases suggest caution with EIA data. Upcoming BOC and FOMC events add volatility. - Action: Watch for natural gas inventory data and impact of electricity demand trends, considering macro event risks. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - Copper (CU0) bearish w=4: Bearish: SHFE adjusted international copper futures parameters to 9% price limit and increased margin requirements (10-11% for general/speculative positions, fact_id 28), effective Jan 28, potentially reducing speculative trading and increasing volatility. Bullish: EIA electricity demand growth (fact_id 45) may support copper demand indirectly. Upcoming high-impact macro events (BOC, FOMC) add uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=96010.00/105650.00 - Action: Be cautious around SHFE adjustment effective date (Jan 28) and monitor FOMC impact on market sentiment. - Market: Market Context (CU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=103060.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=101832.00, 60D=93885.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=96010.00/105650.00. ATR14=2622.86. Vol20D=1.63%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - Aluminum (AL0) bearish w=3: Bearish: SHFE approved new aluminum ingot registration with 800k tons capacity (fact_id 46), increasing deliverable supply and potentially lowering prices; immediate availability for futures contracts may lead to increased hedging selling. No bullish arguments provided. Upcoming macro events could exacerbate downward pressure. - Levels: S/R=22110.00/25075.00 - Action: Monitor market reaction to new supply availability from Xinjiang and macro event impacts. - Market: Market Context (AL0, as-of 2026-01-27): Price=24305.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=23982.00, 60D=22555.92). Levels(S/R, 20D)=22110.00/25075.00. ATR14=631.07. Vol20D=1.52%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - [2026-01-28 15:16] SHFE Notices | Impact=4 | 关于同意吉利百矿集团有限公司“吉利百矿”牌铝锭注册的公告 - Facts: 上海期货交易所批准吉利百矿集团有限公司旗下两家子公司生产的'吉利百矿'牌铝锭注册，总注册产能50万吨，可用于铝期货合约交割。 - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830263.html - Signals: - Aluminum (AL0) neutral w=4: SHFE approves new '吉利百矿' brand aluminum ingots with 50万吨 total registered capacity, increasing deliverable supply for futures (facts). Bull: may enhance market confidence and efficiency (bull arguments); Bear: could pressure prices due to added supply (bear arguments). Failure-aware warning from past SHFE notice inaccuracies (market_context) and upcoming macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) add uncertainty, necessitating caution. - Levels: S/R=22110.00/25075.00 - Action: Monitor price action closely around current levels; no support/resistance levels provided in market_levels. - Market: Market Context (AL0, as-of 2026-01-27): Price=24305.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=23982.00, 60D=22555.92). Levels(S/R, 20D)=22110.00/25075.00. ATR14=631.07. Vol20D=1.52%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T07:11:33.164458+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告 Summary: 上海期货交易所批准新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭注册，允许其用于铝期货合约交割，注册产能为80万吨。 Key Facts: - 新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭获准在上海期货交易所... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - [2026-01-28 15:11] SHFE Notices | Impact=4 | 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告 - Facts: 上海期货交易所批准新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭注册，允许其用于铝期货合约交割，注册产能为80万吨。 - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830262.html - Signals: - Aluminum (AL0) neutral w=4: SHFE approved registration of 'QY' aluminum ingots adding 800,000 tons deliverable supply (facts), potentially bearish for prices. Bull: EIA forecasts strongest four-year U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000 (historical reference) could boost aluminum demand. Bear: Historical SHFE notices, like copper adjustment on 2026-01-26 with -0.23% drop (failure cases), suggest bearish reactions, and upcoming macro events (FOMC, BOC) may strengthen USD, pressuring commodities. Evidence mixed; sentiment neutral due to supply-demand balance uncertainties and macro volatility. - Levels: S/R=22110.00/25075.00 - Action: No specific support/resistance levels provided; monitor price action post-SHFE announcement and during upcoming CAD/USD macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) for directional cues. - Market: Market Context (AL0, as-of 2026-01-27): Price=24305.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=23982.00, 60D=22555.92). Levels(S/R, 20D)=22110.00/25075.00. ATR14=631.07. Vol20D=1.52%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA... - [2026-01-28 10:05] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | Impact=2 | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers - Facts: 美国能源信息署（EIA）在1月短期能源展望中首次发布至2027年的能源行业预测，预计美国电力需求将出现自2000年以来最强的四年增长，主要受数据中心驱动。 - URL: /pressroom/releases/press582.php - Signals: - Electricity (-) neutral w=2: EIA predicts strongest four-year U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000, driven by data centers, based on January STEO but lacks specific percentages. Bull case: increased demand could support energy commodity prices; bear case: weak evidence, historical inaccuracies in EIA forecasts (per failure cases), and upcoming high-impact CAD macro events add risk. Direct impact on Chinese electricity futures is unclear. - Action: Monitor for impact from EIA data confirmation and upcoming BOC events; no support/resistance levels provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-25T15:57:08+00:00 | EIA | This Week in Petroleum (10/8/2025): Source: EIA Title: This Week in Petroleum (10/8/2025) Summary: The EIA's weekly petroleum report provides supply data as of October 3, 2025, and retail price data as o... - 2026-01-25T15:57:08+00:00 | EIA | This Week in Petroleum (10/16/2025): Source: EIA Title: This Week in Petroleum (10/16/2025) Summary: The EIA's weekly petroleum report provides supply data as of October 10, 2025, and retail prices as of... ## Section 2: High Conviction Signals (impact_weight >= 4) - [2026-01-28 18:54] SHFE Notices | Silver (AG0) bearish w=5 | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 - Logic: Bull: SHFE restrictions on opening new positions for 12 account groups may reduce speculative selling pressure, potentially supporting silver prices. Bear: Historical SHFE notices (e.g., Jan 26, 2026 adjustment) led to bearish price movements; uncertainty in contract specifics and high-impact upcoming macro events (BOC reports, FOMC decisions) increase downside risk. Concrete facts: SHFE imposed restrictions on 12 account groups for exceeding daily position limits, but commodities not specified. Failure cases warn of overestimated bullish factors and underestimated bearish impact. - Levels: S/R=16870.00/30020.00 - Action: High volatility expected from SHFE regulatory news and upcoming CAD/USD macro events; monitor for bearish momentum and avoid new positions until clarity. - Market: Market Context (AG0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=29219.00, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=22082.80, 60D=16453.72). Levels(S/R, 20D)=16870.00/30020.00. ATR14=1799.21. Vol20D=4.59%. - Memory: - 2026-01-27T08:54:00+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed restrictions on opening new positions for 9 groups of accounts due to exceeding intraday trading limits, violating ex... - 2026-01-27T08:36:48+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed regulatory measures on 18 clients across 3 groups for suspected failure to declare actual control relations... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830277.html - [2026-01-28 18:54] SHFE Notices | Tin (SN0) bearish w=5 | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 - Logic: Bull: SHFE regulatory action might limit aggressive trading and support tin prices by reducing downward pressure. Bear: Similar past SHFE actions (e.g., Jan 26, 2026 notice) resulted in negative outcomes; lack of contract details and high-impact macro events (FOMC, BOC) heighten bearish risks. Concrete facts: SHFE restricted opening new positions for 12 account groups due to exceeding limits, but commodities unspecified. Failure cases indicate past underestimation of bearish impact from such notices. - Levels: S/R=316730.00/462720.00 - Action: Expect increased volatility from SHFE notice and imminent macro announcements; consider cautious selling or wait for confirmation of bearish trends. - Market: Market Context (SN0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=443800.00, Position=97% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=388544.50, 60D=336194.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=316730.00/462720.00. ATR14=28825.00. Vol20D=4.10%. - Memory: - 2026-01-27T08:54:00+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed restrictions on opening new positions for 9 groups of accounts due to exceeding intraday trading limits, violating ex... - 2026-01-27T08:36:48+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于对相关客户采取限制开仓、限制出金监管措施的公告 Summary: SHFE has imposed regulatory measures on 18 clients across 3 groups for suspected failure to declare actual control relations... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830277.html - [2026-01-28 18:43] SHFE Notices | Gold (AU0) bearish w=5 | 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 - Logic: SHFE increased gold specific contract general margin to 18%. Price 1186.2 at 100% of 3y range and resistance 1186.76, overbought. Bull case cites macro-driven strength, but high margins raise trading costs ahead of Fed decisions. Failure warnings advise against overconfidence in bullish factors. - Levels: S/R=964.00/1186.76 - Action: Sell near resistance 1186.76; support at 964. - Stop: 1240.00 - Market: Market Context (AU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=1186.20, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=1051.24, 60D=989.46). Levels(S/R, 20D)=964.00/1186.76. ATR14=26.86. Vol20D=1.44%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futures contracts, effect... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maximum daily opening po... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830274.html - [2026-01-28 18:43] SHFE Notices | Silver (AG0) bearish w=5 | 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 - Logic: SHFE increased silver specific contract general margin to 18%. Price 29219 at 100% of 3y range and near resistance 30020, with high volatility (ATR14 1799.21). Bull case highlights dual demand, but historical reference shows past adjustments led to negative returns. Upcoming macro events and margin hike could trigger selling. - Levels: S/R=16870.00/30020.00 - Action: Consider shorting near resistance 30020; support at 16870. - Stop: 32817.00 - Market: Market Context (AG0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=29219.00, Position=100% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=22082.80, 60D=16453.72). Levels(S/R, 20D)=16870.00/30020.00. ATR14=1799.21. Vol20D=4.59%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futures contracts, effect... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maximum daily opening po... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830274.html - [2026-01-28 18:43] SHFE Notices | Zinc (ZN0) bearish w=4 | 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 - Logic: SHFE increased zinc general margin to 11%. Price 25605 at 95% of 3y range and near resistance 25650, indicating overbought conditions. Bull case points to high momentum, but historical failures show similar adjustments led to negative returns. Margin hike could dampen speculative demand. - Levels: S/R=23130.00/25650.00 - Action: Sell near resistance 25650; support at 23130. - Stop: 26605.00 - Market: Market Context (ZN0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=25605.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=24366.75, 60D=23332.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=23130.00/25650.00. ATR14=500.36. Vol20D=1.19%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futures contracts, effect... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maximum daily opening po... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830274.html - [2026-01-28 18:43] SHFE Notices | Nickel (NI0) bearish w=4 | 关于调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 - Logic: SHFE increased nickel general margin to 13% and price limit to 11%, raising trading costs. Market at 144730 near resistance 152500 with ATR14 6390. Bull case cites above MA strength, but failure warnings indicate past overestimation of bullish factors and underestimated bearish impact. Upcoming Fed events add macro uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=125710.00/152500.00 - Action: Consider selling near resistance 152500, monitor for breakdown below support 125710. - Stop: 157510.00 - Market: Market Context (NI0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=144730.00, Position=29% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=141475.50, 60D=125976.50). Levels(S/R, 20D)=125710.00/152500.00. ATR14=6390.00. Vol20D=3.36%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整铜等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: SHFE announces adjustments to price limits and margin requirements for copper and aluminum futures contracts, effect... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的通知 Summary: SHFE adjusts position limits for silver and tin futures contracts, effective from January 27, 2026, setting maximum daily opening po... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830274.html - [2026-01-28 18:09] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Natural Gas (-) neutral w=4 | Colder winter weather increases our home heating expenditure forecasts - Logic: Bull: EIA forecasts higher residential natural gas prices due to expected colder winter temperatures, increasing heating demand, supported by historical data showing recent price rises from severe weather. Bear: Higher U.S. demand could reduce exports to China, pressuring supply for CN futures, and upcoming FOMC events may strengthen USD, increasing import costs. Forecast uncertainty and high-impact macro events add volatility and risk. - Action: Monitor price movements after upcoming high-impact macro events (e.g., FOMC decisions); avoid aggressive positions until volatility subsides, as no support/resistance levels are provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.507013+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Severe winter weather across large portions of the country, natural gas prices increasing: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Severe winter weat... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Title: EIA forecas... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66864 - [2026-01-28 18:03] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude Oil (SC0) bearish w=4 | Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026 - Logic: EIA forecasts 0.8 million bpd global crude oil production growth in 2026, with 0.4 million bpd from Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, indicating bearish supply pressure. Historical facts show U.S. production near 2025 record and gasoline prices expected to fall in 2026/2027 due to crude oil price declines, supporting bearish outlook. Bull arguments suggest demand absorption and stable non-OPEC+ supply, but these are speculative. Bear points highlight supply glut and uncertainty from STEO forecasts. Upcoming high-impact FOMC events add volatility and potential USD strength, which could further pressure prices. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: High volatility expected from upcoming FOMC events; consider avoiding new positions until after announcements, as no specific support/resistance levels are provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts near-term U.S.... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.524597+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil producti... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66884 - [2026-01-28 18:00] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=4 | EIA updates its definitions and estimates of OPEC crude oil production capacity - Logic: Bullish considerations: EIA highlights low spare capacity in OPEC, which could pressure prices during supply disruptions, and past high tanker rates in late 2025 indicate strong demand from East Asia. Bearish considerations: EIA forecasts 2026 global production growth of 0.8 million b/d, with 0.4 million b/d from non-OPEC+ countries (Brazil, Guyana, Argentina), and tanker rates declined in early 2026. Upcoming high-impact macro events (FOMC rate decision, BOC reports) may strengthen USD and dampen demand. Evidence on OPEC capacity direction is weak, adding uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor SC0 price action around key macro events, especially FOMC decisions starting at 03:00 UTC on 2026-01-29, due to high volatility risk. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.522085+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina suppor... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.524597+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil producti... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66904 - [2026-01-28 17:39] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Gasoline (-) bearish w=4 | In 2025, U.S. retail gasoline prices decreased for third consecutive year - Logic: U.S. retail gasoline prices fell for the third consecutive year in 2025 (fact), with EIA forecasting further declines in 2026-27 due to falling crude oil prices (historical reference), indicating weak demand and bearish pressure. Bull considerations include potential economic stimulation from lower prices, but evidence is indirect. Upcoming high-impact macro events, such as FOMC decisions, add uncertainty and risk. - Action: Consider short positions if gasoline futures are traded, but avoid overconfidence; monitor for entry opportunities after clarity from upcoming macro events, as no support/resistance levels are provided. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail gasoline prices fall... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66964 - [2026-01-28 17:29] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Natural Gas (-) neutral w=4 | We expect Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to fall slightly in 2026 before rising in 2027 - Logic: EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot price dropping ~2% to below $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 due to balanced supply-demand, then surging 33% to below $4.60 in 2027 on LNG export-driven demand growth. Bull case cites 2027 rise and historical 56% recovery in 2025; bear highlights 2026 decline and macro risks from upcoming FOMC events. - Action: Monitor price action around EIA forecast levels of $3.50 (2026) and $4.60 (2027), with high volatility expected from upcoming BOC and FOMC macro events. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.515974+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024's record low: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail gasoline prices fall... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67004 - [2026-01-28 17:16] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | Gasoline (-) bearish w=4 | EIA expects lower gasoline prices in 2026 and 2027 as crude oil prices fall - Logic: EIA directly predicts U.S. gasoline prices to fall 6% in 2026 and remain below 2025 levels, with retail prices already at lows since 2021 ($2.98/gallon in Dec 2025). Bearish due to weak global demand or oversupply, though refinery capacity declines may provide partial offset. Upcoming macro events could increase near-term volatility. - Action: Consider bearish positions based on forecast; watch for supply disruptions from refinery issues. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.509723+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | EIA forecasts near-term U.S. crude oil production will remain near 2025 record: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: EIA forecasts near-term U.S.... - 2026-01-28T08:25:49.528183+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 | U.S. retail gasoline prices fall below $3 per gallon, the lowest since 2021: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) #2 Title: U.S. retail gasoline prices fall... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67024 - [2026-01-28 16:43] EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Crude Oil (SC0) neutral w=4 | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Logic: EIA report shows mixed signals: bullish due to benchmark adjustment reducing domestic production by 51,000 b/d (fact 50) and lower y/y inventories (416.0 vs 425.5M barrels from fact 52), but bearish from y/y production increase (13.644 vs 13.475M b/d) and import decline (5.051 vs 5.975M b/d). Upcoming high-impact macro events (CAD BOC and USD FOMC in next 12h) introduce uncertainty, prioritizing risk control. - Levels: S/R=411.00/463.40 - Action: Monitor EIA report effects and upcoming macro events; no support/resistance levels provided. - Market: Market Context (SC0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=460.30, Position=13% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=438.44, 60D=445.53). Levels(S/R, 20D)=411.00/463.40. ATR14=12.07. Vol20D=1.92%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T08:25:22.689587+00:00 | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] | Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report [www.eia.gov] Title: Weekly Petroleum Status Repo... - 2026-01-28T08:25:41.192864+00:00 | EIA Petroleum Weekly | This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Source: EIA Petroleum Weekly Title: This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Adminis... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html - [2026-01-28 16:25] EIA International Energy Outlook | Copper (CU0) bearish w=4 | U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis - Logic: Bearish: SHFE adjusted international copper futures parameters to 9% price limit and increased margin requirements (10-11% for general/speculative positions, fact_id 28), effective Jan 28, potentially reducing speculative trading and increasing volatility. Bullish: EIA electricity demand growth (fact_id 45) may support copper demand indirectly. Upcoming high-impact macro events (BOC, FOMC) add uncertainty. - Levels: S/R=96010.00/105650.00 - Action: Be cautious around SHFE adjustment effective date (Jan 28) and monitor FOMC impact on market sentiment. - Market: Market Context (CU0, as-of 2026-01-28): Price=103060.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=101832.00, 60D=93885.17). Levels(S/R, 20D)=96010.00/105650.00. ATR14=2622.86. Vol20D=1.63%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Title: EIA forecas... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调整自2026年1月28日（星期三）收盘结... - URL: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/ - [2026-01-28 15:16] SHFE Notices | Aluminum (AL0) neutral w=4 | 关于同意吉利百矿集团有限公司“吉利百矿”牌铝锭注册的公告 - Logic: SHFE approves new '吉利百矿' brand aluminum ingots with 50万吨 total registered capacity, increasing deliverable supply for futures (facts). Bull: may enhance market confidence and efficiency (bull arguments); Bear: could pressure prices due to added supply (bear arguments). Failure-aware warning from past SHFE notice inaccuracies (market_context) and upcoming macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) add uncertainty, necessitating caution. - Levels: S/R=22110.00/25075.00 - Action: Monitor price action closely around current levels; no support/resistance levels provided in market_levels. - Market: Market Context (AL0, as-of 2026-01-27): Price=24305.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=23982.00, 60D=22555.92). Levels(S/R, 20D)=22110.00/25075.00. ATR14=631.07. Vol20D=1.52%. - Memory: - 2026-01-28T07:11:33.164458+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告 Summary: 上海期货交易所批准新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭注册，允许其用于铝期货合约交割，注册产能为80万吨。 Key Facts: - 新疆其亚铝电有限公司的'QY'牌铝锭获准在上海期货交易所注册 - 注册产能为80万吨，执行标准价... - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调整自2026年1月28日（星期三）收盘结... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830263.html - [2026-01-28 15:11] SHFE Notices | Aluminum (AL0) neutral w=4 | 关于同意新疆其亚铝电有限公司“QY”牌铝锭注册的公告 - Logic: SHFE approved registration of 'QY' aluminum ingots adding 800,000 tons deliverable supply (facts), potentially bearish for prices. Bull: EIA forecasts strongest four-year U.S. electricity demand growth since 2000 (historical reference) could boost aluminum demand. Bear: Historical SHFE notices, like copper adjustment on 2026-01-26 with -0.23% drop (failure cases), suggest bearish reactions, and upcoming macro events (FOMC, BOC) may strengthen USD, pressuring commodities. Evidence mixed; sentiment neutral due to supply-demand balance uncertainties and macro volatility. - Levels: S/R=22110.00/25075.00 - Action: No specific support/resistance levels provided; monitor price action post-SHFE announcement and during upcoming CAD/USD macro events (e.g., FOMC rate decision) for directional cues. - Market: Market Context (AL0, as-of 2026-01-27): Price=24305.00, Position=95% of 3y range, Above 20D MA (20D=23982.00, 60D=22555.92). Levels(S/R, 20D)=22110.00/25075.00. ATR14=631.07. Vol20D=1.52%. - Memory: - 2026-01-26T13:31:25+00:00 | SHFE Notices | 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知: Source: SHFE Notices Title: 上海国际能源交易中心发布关于调整国际铜期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知 Summary: 上海国际能源交易中心调整国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例，自2026年1月28日收盘结算时起生效。 Key Facts: - 调整自2026年1月28日（星期三）收盘结... - 2026-01-28T02:05:12.917213+00:00 | U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | EIA forecasts strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, fueled by data centers: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Title: EIA forecas... - URL: https://www.shfe.com.cn/publicnotice/notice/202601/t20260128_830262.html ## Section 3: Accuracy Tracker (yesterday) Yesterday's Accuracy: 43% (n=21, correct=9) ## Section 4: Morning Outlook TL;DR: - No overnight news events reported; market may open with low volatility and focus on existing trends. - Uncertainty remains high due to lack of new catalysts; traders should rely on technical analysis and geopolitical backdrop. - Monitor for unexpected announcements or data releases during trading hours that could disrupt quiet conditions. Summary: With no significant overnight events, the China futures market is expected to open quietly, with traders likely to depend on recent technical levels and ongoing geopolitical factors. Emphasis should be on risk management and preparedness for potential surprises. Global Politics & Macro: - US-China trade tensions persist, with potential impacts on commodity demand and supply chains. - Domestic Chinese economic policies, including stimulus measures, continue to influence market sentiment. - Global geopolitical risks, such as conflicts or sanctions, add to market uncertainty and could affect risk appetite. - Upcoming political events in key regions may drive volatility, but no new developments overnight. Commodity Fundamentals: - No new inventory or production reports for major commodities like iron ore, copper, or soybeans overnight. - Weather conditions in agricultural and mining regions are stable, with no immediate disruptions to supply. - Shipping and logistics data shows no significant delays, supporting steady supply chain flows. - Recent corporate production reports indicate consistent output, but no updates since last week. - Industry data from previous sessions suggests moderate demand, but lack of fresh data limits new insights. Backdrop Link: The geopolitical landscape, particularly US-China relations, shapes commodity risk appetite by influencing trade flows and economic sentiment, while the absence of new political news may lead to a focus on technical factors and existing supply/demand dynamics. Opening Strategy: - Start with minimal exposure to avoid unnecessary risks in a potentially quiet market. - Set tight stop-loss orders on existing positions to manage volatility from any sudden news. - Watch for opening price gaps and use them to assess market sentiment and potential trend reversals. - Focus on commodities with scheduled data releases later in the day, such as energy or metals, for early positioning. - Consider range-bound trading strategies if prices remain within key technical levels. - Stay alert to real-time news feeds for any breaking developments that could impact the market. Contradictions / Conflicts: - Lack of overnight events means no direct contradictions with existing signals, but market sentiment may conflict with technical indicators, leading to potential mispricing. Opportunities: - Iron Ore Neutral to slightly bullish (horizon=Short-term, conf=0.55): Steady infrastructure demand in China supports prices, but uncertainty from geopolitical tensions warrants a cautious approach. - Copper Watch for breakout (horizon=Intraday, conf=0.5): Technical levels suggest potential for movement; if no news emerges, prices may consolidate, but any surprise could trigger volatility. Risks: - Sudden geopolitical escalation affecting trade policies | affected=['Soybeans', 'Industrial Metals', 'Oil'] | mitigation=Maintain diversified portfolios and use options for hedging; be ready to liquidate positions quickly if news breaks. - Low liquidity leading to widened spreads and slippage | affected=['All commodities'] | mitigation=Trade in smaller lots, avoid large orders at market open, and use limit orders to control execution. Watchlist: - Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) - Copper and aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) - USD/CNY exchange rate for currency impact on commodity prices - Any official statements from Chinese government agencies or central bank - Global commodity indices and overnight moves in related markets like US futures Lessons Learned: - In markets with no new events, overtrading can lead to losses due to low volatility and high transaction costs. - Historical data shows that quiet openings often precede significant moves later in the day; patience is key. - Always cross-check news sources before acting, as false rumors can cause sharp price swings in thin markets. <!-- PERFORMANCE_DASHBOARD_START --> ## Performance Dashboard (last 7 days) | Symbol | Win Rate | Avg Profit% | N | Best Source | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | AG0 | 0% | -5.67 | 3 | SHFE Notices (0%, n=3) | | AL0 | 0% | -0.23 | 1 | - | | CU0 | 0% | -0.78 | 1 | - | | SC0 | 0% | -0.20 | 3 | EIA (0%, n=3) | | SN0 | 0% | -1.03 | 3 | SHFE Notices (0%, n=3) | <!-- PERFORMANCE_DASHBOARD_END -->